question stringlengths 10 193 | answer stringclasses 2 values |
|---|---|
Will Alyssa Farah run for any office in 2024? | NO |
Daily coinflip | YES |
Will the Los Angeles Angels make the 2024 postseason? | NO |
Will the Palestinian Authority take over Gaza deposing Hamas by the end of September 2024 ? | NO |
Will the voter turnout in the 2024 Presidential election be 64% or larger? | NO |
Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1130 and 1131? | YES |
Will Egan Bernal win a professional race he competes against Jonas Vingegaard, in the 2024 UCI season? | NO |
Will Bitcoin hit 100k before Jan 1st 2025? | YES |
Will Trump lose but not concede the next presidential election, and hold a rally in Washington DC on January 6 2025? | NO |
Will anyone be able to get OpenAI’s new model o1 to leak its system message by EOY 2024? | YES |
Will Biden's approval rating be 40% or higher at the end of September 2024? | YES |
Will Moana 2 be at least as highly rated on RottenTomatoes as Moana? | NO |
Will >= 40.0% of Manifold users agree that weak AGI has been achieved in October 2024? | NO |
Will manifold demote any Prize Market to regular market ? (2024) | NO |
Will Mark Farrell win the 2024 San Francisco Mayor's race? | NO |
Will I get vigorous exercise at least 5 days a week for 40 weeks in 2024? | NO |
Will Notre Dame cathedral in Paris reopen to the public on Dec 8th, 2024? | YES |
Will any company produce a publicly available AGI model before December 31st 2024? | NO |
Will California require cars to warn drivers for excessive speeding? (SB 961 2024) | NO |
Daily coinflip 🎉 | YES |
Will Democrats flip any governorships? | NO |
Will the Jet Propulsion Laboratory have a layoff large enough to trigger the WARN Act during the week 11/10/24-11/16/24? | YES |
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene run for President in 2024? | NO |
Will RFK Jr. finish second in any state in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | NO |
Will Conservative party members vote in the 2024 Conservative Party leadership election? | YES |
Will Nintendo Legally go after Palworld before Taylor Swift gets engaged/married? | YES |
In a year, will we think that Sam Altman leaving OpenAI reduced AI risk? | NO |
Will there be a new largest known prime number by the end of 2026? | YES |
Will there be a US government shutdown before the end of 2024? | YES |
Will Selzer out-predict Silver in the 2024 Iowa presidential election? | NO |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be born pre 1960 | YES |
Will Tesla stock have a new all time high before 2040? | YES |
Will Verstappen get more Points then Perez in the 2024 Formula 1 Season? | YES |
Will Ron Desantis be outed as gay by the end of 2024? | NO |
Will there be a political banner on top of the React.dev website by the end of 2024? | NO |
Will a Japanese development studio win Game of the Year at the 2024 game awards? | YES |
Will Sergio Perez be one of Red Bull Racing’s two main drivers at the start of the 2025 Formula 1 season? | NO |
[Polymarket] Will either candidate concede in November? | YES |
Will Donald Trump receive less than 40% of the military vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election? | NO |
If Kamala Harris becomes the Democratic nominee, will she win the 2024 election? | NO |
Elon Musk and a current or former US president appear in a photo together before mid 2025 | YES |
Will there be an orgy (that I hear about) at Love Symposium 2024? | NO |
Will there be a “No Labels” ticket on the ballot in over 25 states in the 2024 US general presidential election? | NO |
Will Secret Service protection be withdrawn from Donald Trump prior to the presidential election in November? | NO |
Will Red Bull win 16 or more races in the 2024 Formula 1 season? | NO |
Will Game 12 of the FIDE World Champion Gukesh vs Ding, result in a draw? | NO |
Will 'The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom' have outsold 'Mario Kart 8 Deluxe' at any point before 2025? | NO |
Did Luigi Mangione author the manifesto 'The Allopathic Complex and Its Consequences' posted on Substack? | NO |
🏒 Will Salt Lake City get a National Hockey League team before 2030? | YES |
Will Manifold stop forcing Sweepstakes markets on the home page by default? (by the end of september) | YES |
Will OpenAI have a valuation (either public or based on a private raise) above $100B by the end of 2024? | YES |
Will the 2024 US presidential election be within 50,000 votes (for electors to the Electoral College)? | NO |
New York Proposition 1 (2024) Passes | YES |
🩺 Will Apple announce a watch with some kind of blood-pressure monitoring in 2024? | NO |
Will Kamala Harris win the national popular vote by more than Hillary Clinton did? | NO |
Will the Presidential Election get called before Pennsylvania? | NO |
Will Kamala Harris say the phrase "Build a wall around Windsor, Colorado" in any context? | NO |
Will my Pixel 9 Fold be money well spent? | YES |
Will Kamala Harris win North Carolina? | NO |
Did Donald Trump grope a teenager? | NO |
Will Nadu, Winged Wisdom be banned in Brawl by October? | NO |
[2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Logan Sargeant finish last in the Drivers Championship? | YES |
Will the first confirmed capture of a North Korean soldier by Ukrainian forces occur before the end of 2024? | YES |
🧨 Short-fuse 1 in 3 odds | NO |
Will there be more candidates with 'Bolsonaro' in their ballot names in the 2024 Brazilian elections compared to 2020? | NO |
Will OpenAI raise over $5B in total venture funding by the end of 2024? | YES |
Will Helldivers 2 be awarded Game of the Year? | NO |
Will a Republican win Minnesota in the 2024 POTUS election? | NO |
Will the Baltimore Ravens claw the Houston Texans? 🏈|🎅 (Christmas Day) | YES |
Will Bitcoin hit $105K in December? | YES |
Will the tipping point state in the 2024 election be decided by <1%? | NO |
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election? | YES |
Will Democrats win Oregon by 15 percent or more in the 2024 Presidential Election? | NO |
Will the runner-up in the 2024 US Presidential Election accept their defeat by Dec 31, 2024? | YES |
Will Ukraine armed forces reach the Seim river around Glushkovo and Tyotkino by December 2024? | NO |
Will Republicans gain control of the U.S. Senate in the 2024 election? | YES |
Will the US lift restrictions on Ukraine striking targets in Russia? Aka "Deep Strikes"? | YES |
Will any open-source model rank in the top 3 on Chatbot Arena at the end of 2024? | NO |
Will Rick Scott win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Florida? | YES |
Tug of war | NO |
Will the next major announcement about Jimmy Carter's health be his death? | YES |
Will I walk 5 million steps in 2024 | YES |
Will the NASDAQ Composite Index fall below 13,000 by the end of September 2024? | NO |
Will someone strengthen our Goodhart's Law result? | NO |
Will the winner of 2024 US presidential election be less than 6ft (183cm) tall? | NO |
Will Manifold have $100k in mana sales before the election following our sweepstakes launch? | YES |
Will Donald Trump publicly condemn the death of Alexei Navalny before Election Day? | NO |
Will the New York Yankees win more games than the New York Mets in the 2024 MLB season? | YES |
Daniel Penny serves no time or Trump pardons him by mid 2026 | YES |
How will Bitcoin preform in 2024? | YES |
Is Manifold Leagues' cohort randomization coded to put friends and people with similar trading interests together? | NO |
Will the first question of the 2024 Vice Presidential debate be about the Iran-Israel war? | YES |
Will JD Vance still be Trump's VP candidate on election day? | YES |
Will Donald Trump still be alive when September ends? | YES |
The men's official marathon world record time will be under 2 hours by the end of 2024 | NO |
Will this market get at least 30 unique traders? | YES |
Israel military response against Iran by Friday? | NO |
Will online gambling be a notable issue in the 2024 US presidential election debates? | NO |
Will the New York Yankees win the World Series? | NO |
Will China invade Taiwan in the 2024 October window? | NO |
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