question stringlengths 10 193 | answer stringclasses 2 values |
|---|---|
Will an AI score over 10% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025 | YES |
Will Max Verstappen score more poles than Perez does P2 in 2024? | YES |
Will North Carolina elect a Democrat for governor in 2024? | YES |
Will MrBeast be the most subscribed YouTube channel on December 31st 2024? | YES |
Bitcoin above $95K on Dec 8? | YES |
Will the government shutdown before October 2? | NO |
[Metaculus] Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | NO |
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election? | YES |
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | NO |
Will the Dodgers clinch the NL West | YES |
Will Nebraska beat Illinois in their football game on 9/20/24? | NO |
Tug of war | YES |
Will Satish Rao release grades for UC Berkeley's CS 270 by Monday December 23rd? | NO |
[Short Fuse] Will I (@Quroe) beat @ScottSupak in September 2024's Manifold Diamond League? | YES |
Will ChatGPT be able to say the name David Mayer before 2025? | YES |
Will x.com/manifoldmarkets post today? | YES |
Will Manifold add a withdrawal fee for sweepcash before the end of November? | YES |
Will Marvel release multiple films in 2024? | NO |
Will JD Vance and Tim Walz both participate in a vice presidential debate hosted by CBS News on October 1st? | YES |
Will at least one US state print ballots without listing Donald Trump due to Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | NO |
Will Biden die before the next presidential election? | NO |
Will OpenAI release their video generation model "SORA" to the general public before the US elections (2024)? | NO |
Will Liz Cheney run for president in 2024? | NO |
Will there be a claim that Kamala Harris has had a lesbian relations published in a reputable newspaper? | NO |
Will Biden declare a national FEMA EMERGENCY after the election? | NO |
Will Trump underperform in the general polls again? (2024 RCP Average) | YES |
Will Biden need Nebraska's second district to win reelection? | NO |
Will Mitch McConnell stop being Senate Republican Leader by the next presidential inauguration (20 Jan 2025)? | YES |
Bitcoin hits $100K in less than 48 hours? | NO |
Will the margin of victory in the 2024 US Presidential election in Wisconsin be greater than 1%? | NO |
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Sept 27 than hit closed on Sept 26? | NO |
Will Trump win Nevada in the 2024 Presidential Election? | YES |
Will there be an EA Global Conference on the East Coast in 2024? | YES |
Will this market get me a job in 2024? | NO |
Will there be candidates with "ChatGPT" in their names in the 2024 Brazilian municipal elections? | NO |
Will TSLA reach >$ 420 before 8pm EST on February 18? | YES |
Democratic party trifecta in 2024 | NO |
Will Hunter Biden receive a combined sentence of greater than 50 months confinement? | NO |
NFL Week 3 (Sep 22): Will the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Los Angeles Chargers? | YES |
🏈 2024 NCAAF: Will BYU defeat Utah? | YES |
Will the Bank of England base rate reach 7.5% in 2024? | NO |
Will Cornel West receive >= 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US Presidential election? | NO |
Will there be a joint Pantone color of the year in 2025? | NO |
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of September? | NO |
Will Missouri vote the same party for Senate and president in 2024? | YES |
Will Claude-3.5 Opus launch before October 18th? | NO |
Will Shohei Ohtani hit 50 HR? At 48 HR with 11 games to go ⚾🇯🇵 | YES |
Will Kai Cenat interview Kamala Harris or Tim Walz before November 2024? | NO |
Will Jensen Huang speak at any public event while not wearing a leather jacket before October 2024? | YES |
Will Bashar al-Assad be in power in Syria until the end of 2025? | NO |
Will there be a CubeCon 2024? | YES |
Will US total CO2 emissions be below 5 billion tons in 2023? | NO |
Will Apple (AAPL) remain the largest company through Sept 30th? 🍎📈💰 | YES |
Will Jon Tester outperform the Democratic presidential nominee by double digits? | YES |
Does the next US President currently hold the title of Governor? (As if January 2023) | NO |
[Polymarket-linked] Will either candidate say a slur at the VP debate? | NO |
Bitcoin above $65000 on October 25? | YES |
Will JD Vance's Favourability improve 2 weeks after the VP debate? | YES |
Will any state be decided by <0.1% in the 2024 presidential election? | NO |
Will Susan Collins endorse Trump? | NO |
Will November 2024 will be the warmest month of November ever recorded (worldwide) ? | NO |
Bitcoin $100K by Dec 31, 2025? | YES |
Will this market close between 45% - 55%? | YES |
Will a Republican reclaim the Senate seat of West Virginia now that Manchin is not seeking reelection? | YES |
Will I solve the alignment problem in 2024? | NO |
Will Selzer out-predict Silver in the 2024 Iowa presidential election? | NO |
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024? | NO |
🏈 2024 NCAAF: Will Florida defeat Kentucky? | YES |
Formula 1 2024 - Will Sergio Perez be dropped or replaced mid-season? (Includes being replaced for any reason) | NO |
Will Biden lose the 2024 election AND NOT pardon Trump before November 5th, 2024? | YES |
will this prediction market get 25 or more traders? | YES |
Will a player hit two Grand Slams in one Major League Baseball game in 2024? | NO |
Will Germany recognize the State of Palestine by the end of 2024? | NO |
Will "Gladiator 2" (2024) receive a CinemaScore of A- or above? | NO |
Will China start building another military base in Africa before 1st August 2024? | NO |
Will Takane Lui hit 1 million subscribers on YouTube before 2025? | YES |
Will the Suez Canal be closed for a full week for any reason by the end of 2024? | NO |
Will Jimmy Carter ever appear on Talk Tuah? | NO |
Will Jack Smith ask a judge to dismiss/drop any of the charges against Trump by the end of 2024? | YES |
Will Joe Manchin run for president in 2024? | NO |
If Trump wins the 2024 election, will his vice president be Vivek Ramaswamy? | NO |
Will the 2024 US election have an outcome that cannot be certified by the reasonable observers? | NO |
Will Mark Meadows run for any office in 2024? | NO |
Will there be at least 4 decisive classical games in the 2024 World Chess Championship? | YES |
In the 2024 US presidential election, will there be at least one faithless elector? | NO |
Can I go 2 weeks without finding out if Kimberly found out if Wott found out if TBTBTB found out who won the election?? | NO |
NFL Week 6 (Oct 13): Will the Tennessee Titans beat the Indianapolis Colts? | NO |
If the Democratic nominee wins Minnesota, will they win the presidency (2024)? | NO |
Will there be concrete evidence of a Chess GM cheating over the board before then end of 2024? | YES |
Will Donald Trump still be alive by the end of November? | YES |
Will Ruturaj Gaikwad be replaced by any other team member of CSK as captain in IPL 2024? | NO |
Will a higher % of Americans pick the winning candidate in 2024 than in 2020? [ READ DESCRIPTION ] | NO |
[2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Max Verstappen win the Constructors Championship by himself? | NO |
Will Bitcoin reach $100k before it reaches $10k? | YES |
Will the candidate who wins Nevada win the 2024 POTUS election? | YES |
[2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Sergio Perez finish 2nd or higher in the Drivers Championship? | NO |
Will any of the videos uploaded to Ms Rachel's YouTube channel in November 2024 surpass 5 million views? | YES |
Will the 538 & Nate Silver presidential forecasts once again disagree by >7% before the election? | NO |
Will JD Vance or Tim Walz say the word "couch" during the debate? | NO |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Florida? | NO |
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