Datasets:
CK0607
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closed-manifold

Dataset card Data Studio Files
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CyshUc6u2U
congress-acts-against-trumps-tariff
Congress acts against Trump's tariffs by June?
null
1,743,635,940,554
1,751,327,940,000
1,751,330,015,067
NO
0.00179
4,781.173212
OtUy5s05EA
will-the-msrp-of-the-nintendo-switc
Will the MSRP of the Nintendo Switch 2 in the US be increased from what was initially announced before release day?
null
1,743,632,401,855
1,749,096,045,342
1,749,096,045,342
NO
0.01
21,168.951456
LlqtyggOgc
musk-speaks-out-against-the-tariffs
Musk speaks out against the tariffs by mid 2025
null
1,743,631,737,242
1,744,074,733,428
1,744,074,733,428
YES
0.9
1,185.103002
ZlRUhACOU0
nintendo-increases-recommend-us-ret
Nintendo increases recommend US retail price of Switch 2 above the announced $449.99 before launch
null
1,743,626,294,077
1,749,098,307,343
1,749,098,307,343
NO
0.01
20,432.831114
dz8dphEtpS
will-april-in-boston-have-more-than
Will April 2025 in Boston have more than two days with highs over 80F?
null
1,743,625,605,586
1,746,230,340,000
1,746,660,381,472
NO
0.014857
969.713977
PNEQyz02gC
will-there-be-a-tie-for-the-last-sp
Will there be a tie for the last spot on the 2025 USA IMO team?
null
1,743,621,047,784
1,745,365,588,664
1,745,365,588,664
NO
0.442931
4,839.103619
Ps28hq55UI
will-george-rr-martin-announce-he-i
Will George R.R. Martin announce he is pregnant by May 2025?
null
1,743,619,500,543
1,746,143,940,000
1,746,152,774,575
NO
0.01
9,450.525418
szEd6E2ENQ
will-i-promote-to-gold-after-the-mo
Will I promote to gold after the month of april?
null
1,743,617,571,357
1,746,124,887,051
1,746,124,887,051
NO
0.036038
444
P5sRspg6EO
trump-announces-10-new-tariffs-on-a
Trump announces 10+ new tariffs on April 2, 2025?
null
1,743,607,077,163
1,743,632,681,465
1,743,632,681,465
YES
0.99
998.29632
lPunIdLqlO
will-a-minecraft-movie-gross-100-mi
Will "A Minecraft Movie" gross >$100 million during its domestic opening weekend?
null
1,743,606,317,248
1,743,746,340,000
1,744,149,940,279
YES
0.936272
6,890.676398
N2q6U5gNs9
ncaa-basketball-final-four-duke-win
NCAA Basketball Final Four 🏀: Duke wins vs Houston?
null
1,743,600,172,708
1,743,911,653,026
1,743,911,653,026
NO
0.009658
19,020.316097
NIgZlIQQ8z
ncaa-basketball-final-four-florida
NCAA Basketball Final Four 🏀: Florida wins vs Auburn?
null
1,743,600,061,313
1,743,901,011,341
1,743,901,011,341
YES
0.993379
14,040.763006
pOqqZ0nzAd
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-gZztg0cuud
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Apr 2 than it closed on Apr 1?
null
1,743,592,045,335
1,743,626,124,200
1,743,626,124,200
YES
0.990694
32,214.175549
lPEZNpEsAI
i-am-intelligent
i am intelligent
null
1,743,576,616,606
1,743,576,671,012
1,743,576,671,012
NO
0.293902
55
0zghy0PNOO
phil-hellmuth-enters-wsop-main-even
Phil Hellmuth enters WSOP Main Event this year?
null
1,743,560,278,179
1,751,627,334,325
1,751,627,334,325
YES
0.99
1,545.485381
ydAIhc5ctN
fuck-you
fuck you
null
1,743,552,917,599
1,745,796,397,401
1,745,796,397,401
YES
0.193289
5,902.713444
u5sRAupyAy
will-eric-adams-appear-on-the-ballo
Will Eric Adams appear on the ballot in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
null
1,743,548,120,045
1,748,285,857,596
1,748,285,857,596
NO
0.022876
610.761451
O2P9AU0NUL
will-there-be-a-break-between-chain-cgSA5ERRnZ
Will there be a break between Chainsaw Man chapters 199 and 200?
null
1,743,528,861,612
1,744,148,560,180
1,744,148,565,437
NO
0.171233
120
RuCORIEUZN
after-looking-into-it-will-i-believ
After looking into it, will I believe that LLMs perform badly on USAMO 2025?
null
1,743,528,099,267
1,743,958,670,157
1,743,958,670,157
YES
0.703932
125
58y5IdgpSg
will-a-minecraft-movie-gross-80-mil
Will "A Minecraft Movie" gross >$80 million during its domestic opening weekend?
null
1,743,525,034,011
1,743,746,340,000
1,744,149,947,408
YES
0.99
17,038.738837
R6nCl0zqEz
the-us-andor-iran-will-strike-irans
The US and/or Israel will strike Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility in 2025
null
1,743,522,216,439
1,750,348,981,563
1,750,348,981,563
YES
0.989718
17,529.645188
A2IcCh5Sc8
will-pope-francis-watch-the-nintend
Will Pope Francis watch the Nintendo Switch 2 Nintendo Direct?
null
1,743,518,185,105
1,743,738,459,123
1,743,738,459,123
NO
0.01
955.368341
LnlqONgSSc
daily-coinflip-QQ22ILpSCd
Daily coinflip
null
1,743,508,905,122
1,743,652,740,000
1,743,653,535,708
NO
0.495025
8,648.733916
Odn8dOs8OZ
who-will-be-the-prime-minister-of-i-Z6L25QclE9
who will be the prime minister of india
null
1,743,507,087,576
1,743,507,122,811
1,743,507,122,811
YES
0.972973
500
09QuCqOnyn
will-joseph-anderson-release-the-fi
Will Joseph Anderson release the first part of the Witcher 3 video today?
null
1,743,506,907,729
1,743,537,947,302
1,743,537,947,302
YES
0.897083
205
ESzClcS2II
will-bitcoin-cross-90000-this-month
Will bitcoin cross 90,000 $ this month ?
null
1,743,505,441,707
1,745,373,241,332
1,745,373,241,332
YES
0.980211
65,073.017158
lqZZNc2UA9
will-metrs-50taskcompletion-time-ho
Will METR's "50%-task-completion time horizon" SotA double in under 7 months?
null
1,743,500,835,704
1,744,831,537,024
1,744,831,537,024
YES
0.988991
91,770.26347
5C2gd8LOPP
will-sawomir-mentzen-win-in-at-leas
Will Sławomir Mentzen win in at least one county? (2025 Polish presidential election)
null
1,743,497,247,708
1,747,670,697,375
1,747,670,697,375
NO
0.503313
110
AgEl0URcCP
will-btc-hit-95000-before-the-end-o
Will BTC hit $95,000 before the end of April 2025?
null
1,743,496,743,529
1,745,769,920,919
1,745,769,920,919
YES
0.99
6,424.796423
S0hhNOsz88
will-the-bank-of-canada-cut-interes-A6UNIdhl62
Will the Bank of Canada cut interest rates in Q2 2025?
null
1,743,493,478,559
1,751,327,940,000
1,751,474,903,841
NO
0.01
1,949.489267
zuPLOLSnly
will-the-bank-of-canada-raise-inter-l9tn8tyE90
Will the Bank of Canada raise interest rates in Q2 2025?
null
1,743,493,405,774
1,751,327,940,000
1,751,474,906,556
NO
0.01
1,003.69235
29yEAun22q
china-invades-taiwan-before-july
China invades Taiwan before July
null
1,743,482,873,707
1,751,327,940,000
1,751,329,571,361
NO
0.012422
3,294.928668
sSpZQELZ2N
will-kanye-launch-a-coin-in-may
Will Kanye launch a coin in May?
null
1,743,466,674,251
1,748,751,935,283
1,748,751,935,283
NO
0.01
9,909.680673
qIu5PE9I20
elon-musk-confirmed-as-the-father-o
Elon Musk confirmed as the father of Ashley St Claire's baby boy in 2025?
null
1,743,462,635,678
1,744,782,514,549
1,744,782,514,549
YES
0.827998
875
Od5SQAQ5l0
will-bitcoin-surpass-95000-by-the-e-qOyLU62n92
Will bitcoin surpass $95,000 by the end of April 2025?
null
1,743,457,226,448
1,745,597,578,956
1,745,597,578,956
YES
0.99
5,878.745455
uUAyZESRlp
will-bitcoin-go-up-90000-k-in-24-hr
Will Bitcoin go up 90000 k in 24 hrs?
null
1,743,448,009,531
1,743,534,360,000
1,744,182,404,764
NO
0.01
964.733533
hCQdE8IqnC
will-donna-mc-baringer-win-the-st-l
Will Donna M.C. Baringer win the St. Louis Comptroller Race?
null
1,743,427,378,683
1,744,239,540,000
1,744,253,175,107
YES
0.99
894.987437
RpdsPN0z6d
will-the-trump-administration-depor-Sl5RICUOAI
Will the Trump administration deport a natural born US citizen by the end of his second term?
null
1,743,423,142,698
1,745,662,492,825
1,745,662,492,825
YES
0.952241
1,470.256472
luAsLOynU5
will-i-fix-my-sleep-schedule-this-w-tIIzNS8Lzc
Will I fix my sleep schedule this week?
null
1,743,423,141,444
1,743,966,597,093
1,744,025,116,053
YES
0.449346
7,995.718886
P8gphCsygu
will-i-get-gold-on-bbo
Will I get gold on BBO?
null
1,743,408,825,231
1,746,700,568,266
1,746,700,568,266
YES
0.814726
1,129.251206
n5RPZpZtlh
sp-500-drops-8-by-april-2025-postli
S&P 500 drops 8%+ by April 2025 post-Liberation Day?
null
1,743,400,645,678
1,746,045,000,000
1,746,047,726,442
NO
0.009072
76,200.121913
SEgz6nyR22
will-june-14-2025-be-a-federal-holi
Will June 14, 2025 be a U.S. federal holiday?
null
1,743,394,291,648
1,750,020,041,187
1,750,020,041,187
NO
0.01
894.987437
A2IlylASSy
minnesota-wild-defeat-new-jersey-de
Minnesota Wild defeat New Jersey Devils on March 31st?
null
1,743,390,066,059
1,743,485,242,602
1,743,485,242,602
NO
0.235849
80
2qnnSNLd5S
will-we-win-the-giant-game-of-chess
Will we win the giant game of chess against our neighbors in our front yard?
null
1,743,382,766,937
1,749,176,897,881
1,749,176,897,881
YES
0.648224
77
I8UIShSLPh
will-i-run-12-times-and-jogwalk-24
Will I run 12+ times and jog/walk 24+ times (32+ hours total) in April?
null
1,743,382,623,381
1,745,082,886,516
1,745,082,886,516
NO
0.778399
130
IpAzSg9R6S
does-robin-hanson-know-what-futa-me
Does Robin Hanson know what "Futa" means?
null
1,743,376,223,296
1,743,472,827,989
1,743,472,827,989
YES
0.939101
1,900.310519
6ZLstSuOzd
will-i-be-the-victim-of-market-misr
Will I be the victim of market misresolution again before the end of April?
null
1,743,363,009,800
1,745,417,881,372
1,745,417,881,372
YES
0.532736
74.623827
2SA2SUCPI2
will-america-bomb-iran-in-2025
Will America bomb Iran in 2025?
null
1,743,359,923,728
1,750,551,910,636
1,750,551,910,636
YES
0.994866
411,709.802186
ElNAqL8Eyq
boba-shop-near-mop-2025
Boba shop near MOP 2025?
null
1,743,356,674,262
1,749,592,453,348
1,749,592,453,348
YES
0.947387
1,981.988023
06UNOcChhQ
will-there-be-any-break-between-kag-dzgPAQR2gp
Will there be any break between Kagurabachi chapters 74 and 75?
null
1,743,355,681,776
1,743,972,427,321
1,743,972,429,669
NO
0.094251
210
qctISLLLpz
will-there-be-any-break-between-one-lUgzlLE2zn
Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1145 and 1146?
null
1,743,355,657,254
1,743,972,398,591
1,743,972,403,446
YES
0.987145
1,037.506178
Z6NhZc8OpP
toronto-maple-leafs-clinch-2025-sta
Toronto Maple Leafs clinch 2025 Stanley Cup playoff spot tonight?
null
1,743,351,878,394
1,743,388,984,781
1,743,388,984,781
NO
0.608355
67
Qh2zCcRLLq
will-tobiasvyseri-have-a-job-before
Will @tobiasvyseri have a job before May? [$500 USD bounty]
null
1,743,317,936,216
1,746,057,540,000
1,746,642,910,369
NO
0.045541
3,740
yAqA0SCOSN
daily-coinflip-9Oh866N9Il
Daily coinflip
null
1,743,314,869,438
1,743,479,940,000
1,743,508,885,690
NO
0.5
3,467.311875
PAO0C2lIUy
will-my-net-worth-be-above-m30000-i
Will my net worth be above Ṁ30,000 in a week?
null
1,743,296,893,705
1,743,901,200,000
1,743,901,244,689
NO
0.013938
1,063.320108
PI2N2qAZQP
will-donald-trump-invoke-the-insurr
Will Donald Trump invoke the Insurrection Act on April 20th?
null
1,743,295,396,483
1,745,207,940,000
1,745,250,415,585
NO
0.01
5,298.126094
Zyqpclznz0
will-barcelona-win-against-girona
Will Barcelona win against Girona?
null
1,743,287,595,207
1,743,367,009,559
1,743,367,009,559
YES
0.99
894.987437
hIduQAphcA
will-the-linked-market-be-boosted
Will the linked market be boosted?
null
1,743,275,363,260
1,747,861,467,963
1,747,861,467,963
NO
0.268637
65
nCy9hLSSyd
will-the-winnipeg-jets-get-past-the
Will the Winnipeg Jets get past the first round of the NHL playoffs?
null
1,743,273,966,014
1,746,057,540,000
1,746,654,311,181
YES
0.63
207.358401
pztA5II2OA
will-free-users-be-able-to-access-g
Will free users be able to access GPT-4o image generation on April 15?
null
1,743,273,169,303
1,743,540,653,905
1,743,540,653,905
YES
0.88673
2,850.793545
dQSAqs8lL9
will-trump-fire-walz-by-the-end-of
Will Trump fire waltz by the end of April 12?
null
1,743,266,668,934
1,744,502,340,000
1,744,840,713,093
NO
0.01
917.041306
IQPtOS2SEZ
will-starship-flight-9-refly-a-boos
Will Starship Flight 9 re-fly a booster?
null
1,743,258,349,934
1,748,763,878,105
1,748,763,878,105
YES
0.989672
10,592.572213
E2R0tLIh2I
nothing-ever-happens-in-april-usair
Nothing Ever Happens in April | USA-Iran war | New Pope | Russia-Ukraine ceasefire | Someone fired from Trump Cabinet
null
1,743,224,112,098
1,745,222,939,137
1,745,222,939,137
NO
0.010195
3,851.154845
898PCRRNqc
i-go-on-at-least-one-date-before-ju
I go on at least one date before June 1, 2025
null
1,743,221,274,971
1,748,217,326,805
1,748,217,326,805
YES
0.61095
212
ROqlS0lUyu
bitcoin-above-84k-on-april-4
Bitcoin above $84K on April 4?
null
1,743,206,623,710
1,743,797,986,202
1,743,797,986,202
YES
0.979637
21,746.570388
q5CAg0O2Qp
will-the-president-sign-a-reconcili
Will the President sign a reconciliation bill by September 1?
null
1,743,204,246,556
1,751,958,626,028
1,751,958,626,028
YES
0.99
1,186.003892
U906QnL5gI
will-tetra-gets-a-cold-this-week
Will Tetra gets a cold this week?
null
1,743,200,484,249
1,743,836,340,000
1,743,880,166,312
NO
0.044043
384
CuyQg8PP0s
if-i-go-to-manifest-will-i-regret-i
If I go to Manifest, will I regret it? [short fuse market 🧨]
null
1,743,192,690,499
1,743,479,940,000
1,751,744,339,599
NO
0.30423
1,102
90IL6q6tyh
david-kisses-someone-while-visiting
David kisses someone while visiting the Bay?
null
1,743,192,449,924
1,744,329,540,000
1,744,556,685,698
NO
0.189606
1,590.762176
2EzElh6t6n
will-shohei-ohtani-pitch-in-may
Will Shohei Ohtani pitch in May?
null
1,743,184,073,993
1,748,796,022,586
1,748,796,022,586
NO
0.011805
1,232.552823
dhQ0lq6Sl0
will-i-play-magic-the-gathering-thi-EypsdNA59A
Will I play magic the gathering this week?
null
1,743,178,367,605
1,744,042,320,000
1,744,064,269,950
NO
0.422318
45
E9Z2dsUZPS
will-josh-weil-d-defeat-randy-fine
Will Josh Weil (D) defeat Randy Fine (R) in the Florida 6th CD Special Election?
null
1,743,172,336,199
1,743,606,436,640
1,743,606,436,640
NO
0.006803
4,657.760872
qLA2UqQUOu
will-blizzard-patchnerf-starship-de
Will Blizzard patch/nerf Starship Demon Hunter before the second week of the expansion ends?
null
1,743,170,367,485
1,743,787,290,296
1,743,787,290,296
YES
0.707125
77.197235
qIyIddENIy
daily-coinflip-pNyntpOhsd
Daily coinflip
null
1,743,163,867,847
1,743,307,140,000
1,743,314,851,752
NO
0.500098
1,976.627588
ndQ5cNpzhq
mcdonalds-stock-below-290-by-eod-ap
Mcdonalds stock below $290 by EOD April?
null
1,743,139,789,638
1,746,057,540,000
1,746,124,699,483
NO
0.017631
822.044779
d6R0h2Agz5
major-ceasefire-before-my-birthday
Major ceasefire before my birthday in June?
null
1,743,139,685,584
1,747,161,133,611
1,747,161,133,611
YES
0.866927
165
6c6P2dU0I5
will-the-2026-uci-world-tour-mens-c
Will the 2026 UCI World Tour (men's) calendar feature the "Brugge - De Panne" race?
null
1,743,135,096,804
1,749,750,443,232
1,749,750,443,232
YES
0.751301
755.751382
ERtS88I5uq
tiktoks-us-status-unchanged-by-may
TikTok's US status unchanged by May 1?
null
1,743,113,410,093
1,746,143,940,000
1,746,146,339,341
YES
0.99
904.749342
lCd08dQzAq
i-go-to-sleep-early-every-day-until
I go to sleep early every day until I submit my bachelors?
null
1,743,111,353,316
1,744,354,955,007
1,744,354,955,007
NO
0.000143
1,757.126702
Lp2lysOcpU
will-the-median-number-of-shares-he-Oqnpz5EgdS
Will the median number of shares held in this market exceed 50?
null
1,743,110,764,249
1,743,721,140,000
1,743,895,800,188
NO
0.146405
2,416.133427
89ZqC0OdU6
short-fuse-eliezer-yudkowsky-expres
[Short Fuse] Eliezer Yudkowsky expresses optimism towards Anthropic's recent interpretability research before April?
null
1,743,099,560,063
1,743,724,740,000
1,743,726,444,130
NO
0.014446
746.037753
296uZqqPp9
us-strikes-iran-by-end-of-april
US Strikes Iran by end of April?
null
1,743,098,865,132
1,746,071,940,000
1,746,216,423,466
NO
0.007917
61,904.892004
d0ptpqI95p
will-there-be-at-least-one-ai-that
Will there be at least one AI that gets a H-score surpassing O3 (DR) before Eid-al Fitr 2025?
null
1,743,092,639,742
1,743,206,340,000
1,743,453,419,551
NO
0.451418
20
qULU28SUhc
us-attacks-iranian-soil-by-the-end
US attacks Iranian soil by the end of May?
null
1,743,083,973,845
1,748,735,940,000
1,748,797,809,330
NO
0.010194
141,083.145961
2SPL9h0l2Z
t-coronae-borealis-erupts-as-a-nova
T Coronae Borealis erupts as a nova on March 27th?
null
1,743,060,421,646
1,743,119,940,000
1,743,575,269,288
NO
0.070561
346
tlqZt8uQyP
sp-500-index-closes-down-by-more-th
S&P 500 Index closes down by more than 1% on April 2, 2025
null
1,743,058,823,010
1,743,609,600,000
1,743,624,107,727
NO
0.026659
2,331.223525
qI0PPUsC2O
daily-coinflip-ygUh9dZ0dq
Daily coinflip
null
1,743,046,747,971
1,743,134,340,000
1,743,163,845,392
NO
0.53
17,498.13519
cQQcP9pRON
will-nothing-happen-before-may-read
Will nothing happen before May? (read description)
null
1,743,036,475,619
1,746,122,562,695
1,746,122,562,695
YES
0.991687
386,638.357415
L2t5UsIcRu
will-pete-hegseth-still-be-secretar
Will Pete Hegseth still be Secretary of Defense through Friday?
null
1,743,031,021,063
1,743,220,740,000
1,743,229,873,767
YES
0.99
2,468.595533
qS2QAn2nPu
ashton-hall-x-saratoga-sponsorship
Ashton Hall x Saratoga sponsorship confirmed by end of April?
null
1,743,030,949,595
1,746,124,497,854
1,746,124,497,854
NO
0.01
1,431.646826
glnShIUA0C
do-you-think-lil-durks-upcoming-alb
Do you think Lil Durks upcoming album, *Deep Thoughts*, releasing this Friday, will surpass the success of his previous?
null
1,743,030,608,758
1,743,544,545,044
1,743,544,545,044
NO
0.416944
60
SqLCNO6yQq
will-the-us-impose-200-tariffs-on-e-UZRg90d0uO
Will the US impose 200%+ tariffs on european alcohol imports by the end of April 2025?
null
1,743,015,986,585
1,746,143,940,000
1,746,148,703,178
NO
0.013243
1,078.717367
56glsQZCg2
no-trader-hold-more-shares-than-hig
Will a NO trader hold more shares than highest YES trader at market close?
null
1,743,014,390,671
1,743,634,740,000
1,743,635,379,842
YES
0.49
71.069599
AZZ9n2ScQQ
will-i-continue-to-take-notes-most
Will I continue to take notes most days until April 25, 2025?
null
1,743,007,491,768
1,745,696,136,791
1,745,696,143,973
YES
0.835128
1,864.853236
q0hQqn9zQL
is-it-avengers-movie-teaser
Is it avengers movie teaser?
null
1,743,006,223,368
1,743,017,638,392
1,743,017,638,392
YES
0.938579
310
yg5E06pC9u
rafa-trzaskowski-will-win-the-2025
Rafał Trzaskowski will win the 2025 Polish Presidential Election
null
1,742,995,598,134
1,750,270,028,027
1,750,270,028,027
NO
0.000851
47,585.509508
ytL5S6IlNl
will-yuki-tsunoda-score-points-in-t
Will Yuki Tsunoda score points in the Japan 2025 Grand Prix?
null
1,742,971,692,674
1,743,897,540,000
1,743,968,828,279
NO
0.573922
898.42859
zzdE6PLL0I
will-anyone-win-my-personal-pentest
Will anyone win my personal pentesting bounty by the end of 2025? [$100 USD prize]
null
1,742,965,106,773
1,743,051,582,832
1,743,051,582,832
YES
0.47041
145
hRNl5ldAyZ
us-supreme-court-strikes-down-tenne
US Supreme Court strikes down Tennessee's gender-affirming care ban in United States v. Skrmetti?
null
1,742,956,124,206
1,750,257,815,524
1,750,257,815,524
NO
0.01
1,014.032834
ytInlIEuPR
will-the-faithbased-affordable-hous
Will the Faith-Based Affordable Housing Act pass during the 2025 New York legislative session?
null
1,742,953,201,008
1,750,263,452,526
1,750,263,452,526
NO
0.010162
940