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2025-march-hottest-on-record
2025 March hottest on record? [Resolves from GISTemp data]
null
1,744,226,735,308
1,744,743,170,739
1,744,743,170,739
NO
0.01
1,744.33832
dyq2tQc6R0
6sided-dice-roll
6-sided dice roll
null
1,744,211,363,140
1,744,928,766,417
1,744,928,784,348
YES
0.5
21.980394
ApgtpC892E
will-i-finish-free-to-choose-by-mil
Will I finish Free to Choose by Milton Friedman by the end of April?
null
1,744,207,457,926
1,746,057,540,000
1,746,099,643,996
NO
0.479127
15
RLROucAZIl
us-imposes-additional-tariffs-on-th
US imposes additional tariffs on third countries in response to China trade war by May 9, 2025
null
1,744,200,782,410
1,744,761,540,000
1,744,788,025,434
NO
0.222753
413.807427
PsCInA2t0t
trump-reduces-majority-of-tariffs-b
Trump reduces majority of tariffs before July?
null
1,744,185,442,889
1,744,486,087,505
1,744,486,087,505
YES
0.992314
12,417.041639
uZhps8UlRR
elon-out-of-trump-administration-be
Elon out of Trump administration before July?
null
1,744,185,051,558
1,748,500,533,419
1,748,500,533,419
YES
0.963022
18,974.142365
Ech9qsNlPy
sp-500-closes-above-6000-before-202
S&P 500 closes above 6000 before 2026 midterms?
null
1,744,181,946,662
1,749,243,962,406
1,749,243,962,406
YES
0.989079
23,041.675155
QccLdngsqq
bryan-johnson-gives-a-talk-at-the-v
Will Bryan Johnson give a talk at the Vitalist Bay Summit between April 25 and 27, 2025?
null
1,744,180,942,348
1,745,711,940,000
1,745,722,168,535
YES
0.99
894.987437
qOuddS9UlP
will-arsenal-fumble-the-20242025-pl
Will Arsenal "fumble" the 2024/2025 PL title?
null
1,744,174,977,850
1,748,131,140,000
1,748,206,779,334
YES
0.28929
25,492.558434
qtnul2RlU9
will-rory-mcilroy-win-another-golf
Will Rory McIlroy win another golf major in the next 10 years?
null
1,744,174,043,710
1,744,586,272,284
1,744,586,272,284
YES
0.89
1,844.452336
sIzURdgg95
will-tumbles-double-your-mana
Will Tumbles DOUBLE YOUR MANA?
null
1,744,169,425,407
1,749,489,730,143
1,749,489,730,143
NO
0.01
46,621.720131
LCOPqnsRtI
googledeepmind-announces-imagen-4-b
Google/DeepMind announces Imagen 4 before May?
null
1,744,166,704,526
1,746,057,540,000
1,746,063,678,589
NO
0.046873
413.066102
uqR8yPERz6
celac-leaders-summit-in-honduras-re
CELAC leaders' summit in Honduras results in new climate change initiative by April 13, 2025
null
1,744,164,648,404
1,744,588,740,000
1,744,595,532,478
NO
0.029542
501
9SEQ0AUARs
will-more-than-20-users-double-thei
Will more than 20 users DOUBLE THEIR MANA?!?!?!
null
1,744,164,533,474
1,744,226,698,033
1,744,226,698,033
YES
0.995767
1,849.710018
dAuO9OZZAS
will-psg-win-against-aston-villa-in
Will PSG win against Aston Villa in the 1st leg of the Champions league?
null
1,744,157,177,288
1,744,233,649,398
1,744,233,649,398
YES
0.99
908.878559
h2d5sdgQpA
will-barcelona-win-against-dortmund
Will Barcelona win against Dortmund in the 1st leg of the Champions league?
null
1,744,157,119,610
1,744,233,634,822
1,744,233,634,822
YES
0.99
901.934308
th60PCssdE
will-there-be-a-break-between-chain-NRCdEIgz9U
Will there be a break between Chainsaw Man chapters 200 and 201?
null
1,744,148,626,279
1,744,752,262,325
1,744,752,266,810
YES
0.27949
106
N6nqCQudqQ
will-the-dow-close-below-36000-befo
Will the Dow close below 36,000 before June?
null
1,744,146,339,962
1,748,686,756,064
1,748,686,756,064
NO
0.01
1,001.745129
hsL0llhhEO
nvidia-shares-to-hit-new-high-in-20
Nvidia shares to hit new high in 2025?
null
1,744,145,083,951
1,750,886,140,459
1,750,886,140,459
YES
0.959148
11,404.900464
qp2l2sUOs9
will-mark-carney-be-the-prime-minis
Will Mark Carney be the Prime Minister after the election in Canada?
null
1,744,137,453,241
1,745,881,200,000
1,745,904,765,905
YES
0.838671
80,265.765385
z6hCPc5E2C
openai-updates-custom-gpts-by-eoy20
OpenAI updates custom GPTs by EOY2025
null
1,744,134,246,497
1,750,538,617,707
1,750,538,617,707
YES
0.99
968.159601
Q6tt6OAtsz
top3seeded-atp-player-wins-montecar
Top-3-seeded ATP player wins Montecarlo Master 1000 2025?
null
1,744,124,106,099
1,744,545,645,132
1,744,545,645,132
YES
0.926855
476.78513
0us8AyUPSO
will-trump-pause-or-lower-reciproca
Will Trump pause or lower reciprocal tariffs on any country by market close on Friday?
null
1,744,122,368,021
1,744,240,729,432
1,744,240,729,432
YES
0.9929
17,307.526544
O6hgL8N8RL
will-trump-lower-tariffs-on-eu-in-a
Will Trump lower tariffs on EU in April?
null
1,744,121,151,786
1,744,413,712,981
1,744,413,712,981
YES
0.984057
11,612.285887
SEP0c5IuQI
motogp-marc-marquez-wins-qatar-gp-m
MotoGP: Marc Marquez wins Qatar GP main race on April 13, 2025?
null
1,744,120,291,674
1,744,566,326,082
1,744,566,326,082
YES
0.99
1,017.357545
6lzIEz2USA
bitcoin-above-78k-on-april-11
Bitcoin above $78K on April 11?
null
1,744,097,727,836
1,744,396,798,478
1,744,396,798,478
YES
0.989479
21,146.640479
2g6A5gL5Lt
another-entry-in-the-top-10-of-larg
Another entry in the top 10 of largest protests/demonstrations in the US by July?
null
1,744,094,478,639
1,750,019,607,717
1,750,019,607,717
YES
0.881969
231.824184
lSlqCQqLOd
openai-o3-release-to-plus-users-in
Open-AI o3 release to plus users in April 2025?
null
1,744,070,005,063
1,744,824,532,702
1,744,824,532,702
YES
0.988671
2,069.790305
SdCgsEchRU
will-bayern-munich-win-against-inte
Will Bayern Munich win against Inter in the 1st leg of the Champions league?
null
1,744,066,051,718
1,744,157,065,204
1,744,157,065,204
NO
0.01
1,282.730779
pPCpzg0tIl
will-real-madrid-win-against-arsena
Will Real Madrid win against Arsenal in the 1st leg of the Champions League?
null
1,744,066,012,994
1,744,156,740,000
1,744,157,053,626
NO
0.010956
893
9sEtI8t9pO
will-trump-claim-he-crashed-the-mar
Will Trump claim he crashed the market on purpose? [Polymarket]
null
1,744,064,419,198
1,746,345,586,780
1,746,345,586,780
NO
0.01
1,216.921252
c8y0UudS9N
will-i-play-magic-the-gathering-thi-IsLCh9ztNI
Will I play magic the gathering this week?
null
1,744,064,303,039
1,744,669,080,000
1,744,735,329,383
YES
0.363193
37
2AsnQEps6I
house-brings-broad-tariff-control-b
House brings broad tariff control bill to floor by end of May 2025?
null
1,744,056,447,983
1,748,735,940,000
1,748,755,480,002
NO
0.01
15,209.887512
5uQUd5OqUP
fart-up-20-by-eow
$FART up 20% by EOW
null
1,744,045,780,638
1,745,103,540,000
1,745,141,818,003
NO
0.191833
211.16474
AqSS9thAAs
lorenzo-musetti-beats-jiri-lehecka
"Lorenzo Musetti beats Jiri Lehecka at Montecarlo Master 1000 on April 9, 2025?"
null
1,744,038,750,065
1,744,156,740,000
1,744,200,292,436
YES
0.579544
121
pRcc8UgNU8
kilmar-abrego-garcia-returned-home
Kilmar Abrego Garcia returned home by judge's deadline?
null
1,744,037,143,285
1,744,070,340,000
1,744,071,798,204
NO
0.026243
5,100
g6u8dh9R6N
elon-musk-faces-margin-call-by-june
Elon Musk faces margin call by June 1st, 2025?
null
1,744,034,021,324
1,748,822,340,000
1,749,139,047,759
NO
0.011146
10,540.144623
QpUlOyzcnR
lazio-beats-as-roma-on-april-13th-2
Lazio beats AS Roma on April 13th 2025 (Serie A soccer match)
null
1,744,027,824,754
1,744,576,886,870
1,744,576,886,870
NO
0.009773
982.153467
upldN9uRu2
resolves-no-on-odd-days-with-5-chan
Resolves NO on odd days with 5% chance and YES on even days with 5% chance, extends otherwise.
null
1,744,016,236,763
1,744,309,080,000
1,744,316,247,672
YES
0.51
81.874381
Ly6NCsZc58
will-vietnamese-communist-party-gen-yLgIs9OtI2
Will Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam visit the US before July 2025?
null
1,744,013,177,719
1,751,327,940,000
1,751,427,153,801
NO
0.021622
681.996562
t0luz8gSCd
will-vietnamese-communist-party-gen
Will Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam visit the US before June 2025?
null
1,744,013,147,296
1,748,735,940,000
1,749,180,712,229
NO
0.076457
831.973744
EQ2d2LLL68
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-5yqqC5S69S
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Apr 7 than it closed on Apr 4?
null
1,744,013,119,587
1,744,057,483,943
1,744,057,483,943
NO
0.01
58,863.757028
LRIdpUgSn6
at-least-one-valian-loses-their-job
At least one Valian loses their job involuntarily in the next three months
null
1,744,008,187,386
1,751,870,520,000
1,751,916,159,303
NO
0.03
4,915.662969
y2Znq06ghc
google-layoffs-of-10-of-engineering
Google layoffs of 10%+ of engineering staff in the next month?
null
1,744,002,447,783
1,746,594,360,000
1,746,742,270,109
NO
0.01
12,914.307406
puU8zQt9ZA
daily-coinflip-RRnRCZ9g6p
Daily coinflip
null
1,744,000,510,248
1,744,171,140,000
1,744,256,981,211
YES
0.51
1,615.354396
Pulc8uNPhc
will-trump-announce-a-new-tariff-pa
Will Trump announce a new tariff pause by April 9th?
null
1,743,988,464,196
1,744,220,687,283
1,744,220,687,283
YES
0.989227
8,407.811428
ndzPIcnUE2
will-the-nyse-circuit-breaker-trigg
Will the nyse circuit breaker trigger before noon tomorrow?
null
1,743,987,590,801
1,744,041,600,000
1,744,042,440,974
NO
0.01
2,775.408037
5yEyp26LpZ
starship-flight-9-soft-touchdown
Starship flight 9 soft touchdown?
null
1,743,987,543,292
1,748,395,438,011
1,748,395,438,011
NO
0.01
14,089.230457
yNlyPOCUI9
will-the-wikipedia-article-for-jose
Will the Wikipedia article for Jose Luis Ricon MAKE IT THROUGH the end of EOY2025
null
1,743,983,523,902
1,745,277,222,525
1,745,277,222,525
NO
0.076275
248
0hAUIIP6g5
will-there-be-any-break-between-kag-002QnQPqt2
Will there be any break between Kagurabachi chapters 75 and 76?
null
1,743,972,445,777
1,744,577,911,406
1,744,577,914,717
NO
0.081364
253.986686
pgq6Zz6R9C
will-there-be-any-break-between-one-ylPLE5dl99
Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1146 and 1147?
null
1,743,972,421,159
1,745,173,730,001
1,745,173,735,991
NO
0.099153
2,057.79316
sEtIuZSs0s
llama-4-maverick-gets-32-on-the-aid
Llama 4 Maverick gets 32+ on the Aider polyglot benchmark before May?
null
1,743,971,736,718
1,746,081,296,123
1,746,081,296,123
NO
0.01
10,979.531826
55P5ULLCZ5
will-the-australian-election-campai
Will the Australian election campaign have a ‘Russiagate’ controversy?
null
1,743,953,494,552
1,746,486,000,000
1,746,495,794,792
NO
0.010101
1,793.67692
nyy9tlLEIt
will-elon-musk-publicly-acknowledge
Will Elon Musk publicly acknowledge any responsibility for Tesla's stock decline by July 1, 2025?
null
1,743,951,173,322
1,751,327,940,000
1,751,361,114,735
NO
0.008061
5,443.182893
cNd2gRdcSI
will-the-united-states-have-more-th-COcsg8COLs
Will the United States have more than 600,000 households without power again before the end of 2025?
null
1,743,942,368,992
1,745,975,248,959
1,745,975,248,959
YES
0.896113
3,018.958548
S5Nh6pZR6S
testing-glIp9CCUZh
testing
null
1,743,918,609,287
1,743,918,657,364
1,743,918,657,364
YES
0.99
894.987437
zAZ6lZ00NE
will-brenfred-go-to-the-nats-game-t
Will brenfred go to the Nats game tomorrow
null
1,743,917,485,520
1,744,234,557,180
1,744,234,557,180
NO
0.01
894.987437
UutZUPcUNU
will-tiktok-be-banned-again-before
Will TikTok be banned again before May? [Polymarket]
null
1,743,908,896,675
1,746,316,740,000
1,746,563,740,573
NO
0.01
2,987.948906
ZlQgA095Pn
will-my-net-worth-be-above-m30000-i-EEIqLdlQE0
Will my net worth be above Ṁ30,000 in a week?
null
1,743,901,382,504
1,744,506,000,000
1,744,506,004,252
NO
0.177507
291.22703
ZEuqugPU0z
will-welcome-tour-on-switch-2-be-fr
Will Welcome Tour on Switch 2 be free on launch of the Switch 2 in the US?
null
1,743,886,994,063
1,749,098,381,254
1,749,098,381,254
NO
0.01
1,084.226009
It6PLcOPI8
will-the-first-nintendo-switch-2-ed
Will the first "Nintendo Switch 2 Edition" games allow multiple consoles/accounts to get the upgrades?
null
1,743,883,587,171
1,749,316,448,943
1,749,316,448,943
YES
0.99
10,389.09293
5l5IP6sZ2Z
will-arsenal-finish-second-in-the-p
Will Arsenal finish second in the premier league 2024-2025?
null
1,743,877,545,230
1,748,203,655,462
1,748,203,655,462
YES
0.99
1,931.601827
EcCRl9Ryup
trump-reduces-tariffs-on-israel-to
Trump reduces tariff on Israel to 0% by May 1st?
null
1,743,846,822,128
1,746,143,940,000
1,746,176,144,849
NO
0.013638
13,242.753589
25pLzIdg25
germany-withdraws-gold-from-us-in-a
Germany Withdraws Gold from US in April?
null
1,743,837,476,061
1,746,082,740,000
1,746,083,743,394
NO
0.033426
6,081.270037
NOl8Sdz0SS
scott-bessent-leaves-treasury-secre
Scott Bessent leaves Treasury Secretary position before April 30, 2025?
null
1,743,829,348,617
1,746,057,540,000
1,746,073,723,737
NO
0.01
912.460829
CIAp5su9Nu
daily-coinflip-RzO6zNOIqh
Daily coinflip
null
1,743,827,688,158
1,743,998,340,000
1,744,000,498,055
YES
0.5099
2,232.781208
ht0uqlsIuC
manifold-funeral-at-manifest-2025
Manifold funeral at* Manifest 2025?
null
1,743,819,707,268
1,751,386,531,972
1,751,386,531,972
NO
0.015974
14,650.754052
CQpuyAz25l
will-mark-carney-defeat-pierre-poil
Will Mark Carney defeat Pierre Poilievre in the upcoming debates [based on odds change on Polymarket]?
null
1,743,819,246,330
1,744,840,800,000
1,744,994,739,683
YES
0.37
13,503.882894
EnP5SEzUcd
will-barca-win-against-real-betis
Will Barca win against Real Betis?
null
1,743,815,527,134
1,743,897,540,000
1,743,902,179,540
NO
0.040588
577.068499
ZI2RzgS5Is
tumbles-has-lowest-league-profits-t
Tumbles has lowest League profits this month in all of Bronze League?
null
1,743,805,478,832
1,746,161,319,040
1,746,161,319,040
YES
0.99
73,176.164846
8qRn8OAyPp
will-sp-500-emini-futures-go-limit
Will S&P 500 e-mini futures go limit up or down in the Sunday night session 2025-04-06?
null
1,743,804,874,164
1,744,049,965,932
1,744,049,965,932
NO
0.010189
15,145.750376
I60nLdl0Cn
will-i-judge-sublingual-vitamins-to
Will I judge sublingual vitamins to be a success, based on a genova metabolomix test?
null
1,743,803,812,543
1,744,408,440,000
1,744,409,380,307
NO
0.377753
118.736597
OZyIRtOuN2
o4mini-scores-85-on-gpqa
o4-mini scores 85%+ on GPQA?
null
1,743,799,957,969
1,744,829,529,737
1,744,829,529,737
NO
0.012308
1,054.728918
hglEShhN6p
tetra-beholds-the-spheres
Tetra beholds the Spheres?
null
1,743,796,864,953
1,744,341,829,473
1,744,341,829,473
YES
0.551586
30
ddR6llOAQl
will-kilmar-abrego-garcia-be-brough
Will Kilmar Abrego Garcia be brought back from El Salvador to the US by a federal judge's deadline on Monday?
null
1,743,795,706,364
1,744,069,108,764
1,744,117,320,725
NO
0.02215
1,235.387802
5zqPz5ALQC
will-a-stock-market-circuit-breaker
Will a stock market circuit breaker halt trading in the U.S. within the next week?
null
1,743,791,849,173
1,744,396,500,000
1,744,411,198,557
NO
0.011286
179,635.106537
ypS90AZycO
will-trump-fully-walk-back-or-delay
Will Trump fully walk back or delay the new tariffs by April 18?
null
1,743,790,372,038
1,744,959,540,000
1,744,979,787,172
NO
0.010419
50,098.712922
9ZOCAQR6E0
does-manifold-think-that-the-trump
Does Manifold think that the Trump administration used a language model to set tariff rates?
null
1,743,775,592,453
1,744,380,000,000
1,745,471,850,838
YES
0.171525
2,202.782344
ECEzslnRnU
us-non-farm-payroll-higher-in-april
US non farm payroll higher in April 2025 than March 2025?
null
1,743,770,361,388
1,746,191,103,583
1,746,191,103,583
NO
0.01
9,065.136955
85llAdStSR
sp-500-breaker-before-april-30
S&P 500 breaker before April 30?
null
1,743,769,567,965
1,746,057,540,000
1,746,393,092,406
NO
0.004653
363,997.789175
9OLpdPINsO
as-roma-beats-juventus-on-april-6th
AS Roma beats Juventus on April 6th 2025?
null
1,743,769,544,532
1,743,972,042,384
1,743,972,042,384
NO
0.01
1,053.80119
uIS9t956yt
will-the-menswear-guy-derek-guy-fig
Will the Menswear Guy Keep His Promise And Fight A Guy Outside Uniqlo in SF This Sunday at 5PM?
null
1,743,736,723,532
1,745,531,974,449
1,745,531,974,449
NO
0.010195
2,643.866955
c99pPdPZ85
tetra-ascends-the-space-needle-this
Tetra ascends the space needle this trip?
null
1,743,736,098,027
1,744,337,773,563
1,744,337,773,563
YES
0.78308
90
UtA2dqRnSl
i-study-more-than-5-hours-on-april
I study more than 5 hours on April 4th?
null
1,743,730,506,022
1,743,803,103,312
1,743,803,103,312
NO
0.651201
65
AnztELyO6N
will-i-feel-like-i-have-significant
Will I feel like I have significantly built meditation skills by the start of summer?
null
1,743,724,857,545
1,750,550,340,000
1,750,560,237,175
NO
0.901389
226.325626
qdZ5gPsZ5E
spy-at-new-ath-by-eoy2026
SPY at new ATH by EOY2026?
null
1,743,720,311,125
1,751,126,236,238
1,751,126,236,238
YES
0.99
947.176335
EnQ8QnuUCt
will-this-market-be-profitable-in-a
Will this market be profitable in a week?
null
1,743,717,176,435
1,744,322,340,000
1,744,326,114,117
NO
0.131002
584.703506
ApE2cd5Eq5
trump-changes-new-tariffs-in-the-ne
Trump changes new tariffs in the next week?
null
1,743,704,547,553
1,744,036,402,478
1,744,036,402,478
YES
0.752964
24,227.523109
E6IlltNRNC
ethereum-at-2025-before-april-20-20
"Ethereum at $2025 before April 20, 2025?"
null
1,743,703,188,513
1,745,193,540,000
1,745,251,948,964
NO
0.01
949.749342
I5UQthhsIl
will-nyc-end-congestion-pricing-by
Will NYC end congestion pricing by July 1st, 2025?
null
1,743,702,283,492
1,751,414,340,000
1,751,571,836,715
NO
0.012896
1,083.615913
qdt9USQd8Z
will-i-shower-on-saturday
Will I shower on Saturday?
null
1,743,702,047,966
1,743,897,540,000
1,743,963,329,604
NO
0.552085
71.180887
dQIqP59AZE
new-york-rangers-make-the-playoffs
Will the New York Rangers make the playoffs in the 2024-2025 NHL season?
null
1,743,696,654,691
1,744,499,291,049
1,744,499,291,049
NO
0.011791
834.514567
S0h6C0pdcc
tioga-pass-120-open-by-may-29-2025
"Tioga Pass 120 open by May 29, 2025?"
null
1,743,678,177,530
1,748,271,600,000
1,748,287,399,413
YES
0.99
1,148.163383
d90nC62SSt
will-an-ai-write-anything-that-inte
Will an AI write anything that interests me enough to want to keep reading it by June 2025?
null
1,743,671,353,132
1,748,776,583,527
1,748,776,583,527
NO
0.01
4,272.322335
5nz9L8n2cO
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-NZudn5QIhS
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Apr 3 than it closed on Apr 2?
null
1,743,665,222,327
1,743,710,589,829
1,743,710,589,829
NO
0.01
2,401.971972
Plqpz55sSz
daily-coinflip-P6NUsEpLgR
Daily coinflip
null
1,743,653,555,839
1,743,825,540,000
1,743,827,674,747
NO
0.51
3,848.955635
yRnq200qsC
peter-njeim-misresolves-the-2025-ca
Peter Njeim misresolves the 2025 Canadian election market?
null
1,743,651,912,870
1,746,369,663,665
1,746,369,663,665
YES
0.989288
59,172.979303
pugEu6uc5l
trump-admin-confirms-tariff-rate-fo
Trump admin confirms tariff rate formula was proposed by ChatGPT before June?
null
1,743,646,793,280
1,748,822,340,000
1,748,822,453,376
NO
0.01
13,737.513454
5z5QuLqSn2
will-elon-musk-stop-or-step-back-fr
Will Elon Musk stop or step back from running DOGE before the end of 2025?
null
1,743,637,148,406
1,748,664,891,801
1,748,664,891,801
YES
0.969497
1,486.108586
hZ8IUcISlE
will-i-make-ipho-2025
Will I make IPhO 2025?
null
1,743,636,752,405
1,749,316,186,867
1,749,316,186,867
YES
0.999128
10,986.02591