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sEp2CgLdSs
will-quality-of-life-and-overall-we
Will quality of life and overall well-being in the U.S. show improvement since last year's Human Development Report?
null
1,740,334,302,127
1,746,554,359,868
1,746,554,359,868
YES
0.989845
9,187.616493
dPU5z8AUAA
will-i-receive-my-italian-birth-cer
Will I receive my Italian birth certificate this week? (24 - 28 Feb)
null
1,740,332,942,044
1,740,805,140,000
1,740,841,371,987
NO
0.316366
47
gN9pcy8A6h
will-there-be-any-break-between-kag-lssQOu9nnc
Will there be any break between Kagurabachi chapters 70 and 71?
null
1,740,325,474,961
1,740,939,483,118
1,740,939,485,821
NO
0.221956
130.575236
nnz2g0lUpy
will-there-be-any-break-between-one-59ILCIdhAR
Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1141 and 1142?
null
1,740,325,436,591
1,740,939,508,689
1,740,939,512,240
NO
0.01
1,897.970772
Qzh5NOC8Nq
will-pope-francis-pass-away-before
Will Pope Francis pass away before the end of March 2025?
null
1,740,309,087,296
1,743,466,544,149
1,743,466,544,149
NO
0.01
10,369.588731
RnqqsZZdE2
will-hbomberguy-release-a-new-mainl
Will hbomberguy release a new mainline video essay by the end of June 2025?
null
1,740,264,779,764
1,751,342,340,000
1,751,343,093,415
NO
0.018118
6,839
uICCO2q2n5
will-president-yoon-sook-yeols-impe
Will president Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment be upheld by the Constitutioanal Court in South Korea 🇰🇷?
null
1,740,264,444,950
1,743,735,194,668
1,743,735,194,668
YES
0.99
4,286.395028
Sn0y28dALS
will-pope-francis-live-to-watch-the
Will Pope Francis live to watch the Nintendo Switch 2 Nintendo Direct?
null
1,740,264,078,498
1,743,617,361,588
1,743,617,361,588
YES
0.99
20,676.74853
SsZAC02yIy
us-tariffs-on-canada-delayed-again
US tariffs on Canada delayed again on or before March 4, 2025
null
1,740,255,906,987
1,741,091,633,045
1,741,091,638,362
NO
0.017526
71,402.364255
6Cqy02td9I
will-bitcoin-surpass-105000-by-the-thu6OUhUdO
Will bitcoin surpass $105,000 by the end of March 2025?
null
1,740,255,875,436
1,743,506,710,618
1,743,506,710,618
NO
0.008827
3,593.74064
Q95nSslnUN
will-pope-francis-live-past-the-end
Will Pope Francis live past the end of February?
null
1,740,254,984,477
1,740,891,540,000
1,740,894,291,049
YES
0.997395
7,344.281783
QSZyp0SPLg
will-pope-francis-live-to-see-the-i
Will Pope Francis live to see the Ides of March?
null
1,740,254,968,576
1,742,097,540,000
1,742,408,199,134
YES
0.991143
3,186.628408
9hQhzh0Rld
will-i-find-a-random-penny-on-the-g
Will I find a random penny on the ground before the end of the day?
null
1,740,248,231,322
1,740,376,740,000
1,740,415,385,199
NO
0.142806
145
ld8EuzstL8
will-fox-news-report-that-hamas-is
Will Fox News report that Hamas is willing to give up governance in Gaza based on the Egyptian proposal?
null
1,740,247,504,412
1,742,875,140,000
1,743,177,239,841
NO
0.15
936.47023
zIpcQ2tSEZ
will-cnn-report-that-hamas-is-willi
Will CNN report that Hamas is willing to give up governance in Gaza based on the Egyptian proposal?
null
1,740,247,452,564
1,742,875,140,000
1,743,176,879,489
YES
0.137024
340.44477
Csc5IPus9s
will-times-of-israel-or-haaretz-rep
Will 'times of israel' or 'haaretz' report that Biba family have asked the media to stop publishing unverified reports?
null
1,740,246,829,925
1,742,875,140,000
1,743,176,643,390
YES
0.420589
453.364315
qnSyRp5ZPn
if-i-join-aellas-discord-server-wil
Will I think it was a good decision to join Aella's Discord server one month later?
null
1,740,246,226,546
1,742,634,035,000
1,742,634,046,662
NO
0.566174
440.65718
tZSPh6zN5O
will-real-madrid-beat-girona
Will Real Madrid beat Girona?
null
1,740,244,419,308
1,740,331,291,776
1,740,331,291,776
YES
0.989766
943.023783
tER5RLE5gU
will-i-22m-get-sick-within-the-next
Will I 22m get sick within the next month to the degree I have to take a day off work
null
1,740,240,469,381
1,740,844,041,456
1,740,844,041,456
YES
0.10121
198
NuLIPz0UqR
will-i-be-a-mana-millionaire-before
Will I be a mana millionaire before May 31st?
null
1,740,240,181,996
1,748,749,967,148
1,748,749,967,148
NO
0.009941
15,967.906318
NsdS2pyUuQ
will-a-country-be-disqualified-from
Will a country be disqualified from the Eurovision in 2025?
null
1,740,235,467,322
1,747,523,505,935
1,747,523,505,935
NO
0.01
9,797.730393
0lCIEu6QN8
will-it-be-tails
Will it be tails?
null
1,740,226,352,583
1,740,351,540,000
1,740,351,858,817
NO
0.504525
20
6gCUEP6ll6
will-i-lift-weights-today-c0SsCpPPC2
Will I lift weights today?
null
1,740,200,926,786
1,740,286,740,000
1,740,340,696,427
NO
0.317373
165.445394
N5nlsS9uzP
trump-approval-rating-450-or-higher-LqhQnqNOgd
Trump approval rating 45.0% or higher on March 20th?
null
1,740,196,260,364
1,742,747,800,338
1,742,747,800,338
YES
0.99088
43,915.748115
lsNy8NcIER
will-i-have-good-mental-game-at-rc
Will I have good mental game at RC Charlotte?
null
1,740,195,350,447
1,741,459,575,724
1,741,459,575,724
NO
0.094714
2,101
05gtA6IdCp
will-sam-win-season-thirteen-of-jet
Will Sam win Season Thirteen of Jet Lag: The Game?
null
1,740,190,265,661
1,744,245,217,610
1,744,848,692,376
NO
0.01
1,831.278059
lnuQt6zILn
will-trump-make-progress-toward-kee
Will Trump make progress toward keeping all of his campaign promises?
null
1,740,186,715,544
1,746,040,057,384
1,746,040,057,384
NO
0.076419
705
AOhsRqnl98
will-barcelona-beat-las-palmas-tomo
Will Barcelona beat Las Palmas tomorrow?
null
1,740,175,960,647
1,740,265,140,000
1,740,448,876,282
YES
0.920382
240
6qupPCA8pz
will-i-get-sick-in-the-next-week
Will I get sick in the next week?
null
1,740,167,581,867
1,740,808,740,000
1,740,829,314,720
NO
0.136573
1,729.290484
dpyUPuyn09
will-this-market-result-in-me-havin
Will this market result in me having an interesting conversation about AI today?
null
1,740,163,627,101
1,740,200,340,000
1,740,217,107,991
NO
0.821486
145.481589
hR6E58PclZ
will-223-amc-10b-aime-i-make-jmo
Will 223 (AMC 10B + AIME I) make JMO?
null
1,740,161,804,154
1,741,150,205,016
1,741,150,205,016
NO
0.014428
743.949166
0qptdpC55L
will-i-do-well-on-an-upcoming-exam
Will I do well on an upcoming exam?
null
1,740,157,138,380
1,741,369,414,243
1,741,369,414,243
YES
0.556912
36
8AylpPAcLU
will-the-same-film-win-both-best-pi-hcCdLuzOZZ
Will the same film win both Best Picture & Best Director at the Oscars?
null
1,740,156,437,053
1,740,959,940,000
1,740,973,695,800
YES
0.595711
1,072.30854
c8UpSSl2AA
will-anthropic-announce-a-new-model-n5IhdORy0d
Will Anthropic announce a new model on February 24th?
null
1,740,152,028,965
1,740,422,144,232
1,740,422,144,232
YES
0.986615
1,514.126911
2IPNc0lCnO
tug-of-war-2Pp0sgRnES
Tug of war
null
1,740,151,372,211
1,740,373,140,000
1,740,416,032,880
YES
0.523768
82
ZRZ6snQnEh
will-this-question-get-50-traders-i
Will this question get 50 traders in 1 week?
null
1,740,130,716,579
1,740,801,085,774
1,740,801,085,774
YES
0.99
14,001.965121
qQAC0z8CZP
will-i-lift-weights-today-RyIUqylSLR
Will I lift weights today?
null
1,740,122,132,436
1,740,200,340,000
1,740,200,915,501
NO
0.240131
160
9ENSsUUN0Z
daily-coinflip-ZNqAZRAInE
Daily coinflip
null
1,740,118,707,170
1,740,286,740,000
1,740,431,920,046
YES
0.5
11,250.015126
I60htnSlIR
will-twitchtv-implement-a-100-hour
Will Twitch.tv implement a 100 hour storage limit on 19 April 2025?
null
1,740,114,648,808
1,744,774,133,541
1,744,774,133,541
NO
0.01
11,726.925006
ISSZssO858
will-at-least-10-people-make-a-dona
Will at least 10 people make a donation of at least 10 dollars each to my blood cancer fund?
null
1,740,105,870,154
1,742,321,858,913
1,742,321,858,913
NO
0.679574
52
NguUcEOsp8
will-i-choose-yes-or-no
Will I choose Yes or No?
null
1,740,105,607,475
1,740,105,960,218
1,740,105,960,218
YES
0.551987
1,779
slquNsdyRS
will-i-get-a-40-gpa-this-year
Will I get a 4.0 GPA this year?
null
1,740,101,207,647
1,751,300,443,171
1,751,300,443,171
YES
0.9
448
0ECpEyc0y2
the-ndis-assistance-with-selfcare-a
The NDIS "Assistance With Self-Care Activities - Standard -Weekday Daytime" unit rate will increase by more than 10%.
null
1,740,099,527,191
1,749,635,145,201
1,749,635,145,201
NO
0.152923
1,910
sz0Ozgpqsg
will-trump-attend-the-moscow-victor
Will Trump attend the Moscow Victory Day Parade on May 9 2025?
null
1,740,098,028,790
1,746,892,740,000
1,747,126,753,676
NO
0.007156
2,474.935996
zgULq5N5qU
will-there-be-a-new-and-smart-anony
Will there be a new (and smart) anonymous model on lmarena on February 21st?
null
1,740,095,622,865
1,740,247,696,447
1,740,247,696,447
NO
0.135027
246.900157
CR9gNgRN0I
will-someone-be-seen-or-filmed-to-s
Will someone be seen or filmed to slap or punch Elon Musk hard in the face before June 30, 2025?
null
1,740,079,019,190
1,751,407,140,000
1,751,441,596,631
NO
0.019762
1,978.277663
LuIIcccAUc
will-anthropic-announce-a-new-model-ZnAPLQpclN
Will Anthropic announce a new model on February 21st?
null
1,740,078,111,342
1,740,247,827,516
1,740,247,827,516
NO
0.010102
1,895.373739
gS8uhSIEp9
will-i-qualify-for-usajmo-with-a-23
Will I qualify for USAJMO with a 231.5 10A+I index?
null
1,740,078,104,609
1,741,665,540,000
1,744,046,587,784
NO
0.01
957.592345
cSSIZISQ0I
test-ylq5cPZgUS
test
null
1,740,077,590,213
1,740,077,687,309
1,740,077,687,309
YES
0.99
894.987437
LcQ8OnEEtO
is-my-dominatrix-girlfriend-lying-t
Is my Dominatrix girlfriend lying to me about not sleeping with her clients?
null
1,740,076,273,329
1,740,515,959,266
1,740,515,959,266
NO
0.190391
12,591.653042
qRAuOIgCsd
will-the-trump-administration-accid
Will the Trump administration "accidentally" remove any regulation before the end of June?
null
1,740,070,569,032
1,751,342,340,000
1,751,505,475,562
NO
0.09165
335.885176
UcyU9lcCQN
matrixorg-foundation-shuts-down-all
Matrix.org Foundation shuts down all public bridges by May 1, 2025
null
1,740,068,933,131
1,746,057,600,000
1,746,965,723,244
NO
0.228711
876
lpQRq6SRRZ
will-michael-chandler-beat-paddy-th
Will Michael Chandler beat Paddy "the baddy" Pimblett at UFC314?
null
1,740,066,567,330
1,744,498,740,000
1,744,528,924,460
NO
0.655562
384.78251
yd0hA0yPSn
should-america-go-to-a-27-hour-work
Should America go to a 27 hour work week like the Netherlands.
null
1,740,064,175,832
1,740,725,940,000
1,740,726,167,558
YES
0.533576
35
lU56O5ElQE
usamo-qual-2025-ydUtEyIpCP
USAMO qual 2025? 😂😂😂
null
1,740,061,493,292
1,741,177,603,197
1,741,177,603,197
NO
0.01
979.762272
pzuRIdhEzI
will-i-make-hmic-2025-alg-123456geo-CUgl6OpNRp
Will I make HMIC 2025 Alg: 123456 Geo: 12346 Combo: 1234 (-_-)
null
1,740,061,430,342
1,740,105,714,107
1,740,105,714,107
NO
0.01
1,138.702336
UShOhzp2Qn
congestion-pricing-is-back-in-nyc-b
Congestion Pricing is back in NYC, by mid 2026
null
1,740,039,460,969
1,751,396,786,131
1,751,396,786,131
YES
0.905422
2,195
L5cu2LtC9t
will-anthropics-reasoning-model-hav
Will Anthropic's reasoning model have visible CoT?
null
1,740,032,943,297
1,740,466,560,285
1,740,466,560,285
YES
0.982581
1,355.814262
u5qcz8P0tO
will-gamestop-stock-be-valued-at-le
Will GameStop (GME) stock be valued at less than $25.50 by March 31st 2025?
null
1,740,031,384,017
1,743,483,540,000
1,743,961,536,093
YES
0.99
1,803.619109
hR8gOn9Z2n
will-the-pinned-comment-get-at-leas
Will the pinned comment get at least 300 likes?
null
1,740,024,753,287
1,742,619,540,000
1,742,694,343,242
NO
0.01
1,207.767178
t0qqIOsO9d
isaacking-will-watch-this
@IsaacKing will watch this.
null
1,740,020,897,957
1,740,632,340,000
1,741,104,204,429
NO
0.31301
65
uqLAu5nNgn
will-the-afd-win-a-constituency-sea
Will the AfD win a constituency seat in Western Germany?
null
1,740,009,894,295
1,740,361,616,888
1,740,361,616,888
NO
0.041522
792.051464
ZglO5Iz9gt
will-anthropic-announce-a-new-model-cldSpqLyt8
Will Anthropic announce a new model on February 20th?
null
1,740,009,072,000
1,740,111,456,148
1,740,111,456,148
NO
0.014611
1,167.267954
zQ02I6CupS
convince-me-to-resolve-this-questio
Convince me to resolve this question to any resolution, this market will only close when I find sufficient reasoning.
null
1,740,008,520,763
1,740,080,830,958
1,740,080,830,958
YES
0.513025
181.546821
tlZpPURUIZ
will-karina-milei-be-removed-as-gen
Will Karina Milei be removed as General Secretariat of the Presidency before July 1st?
null
1,740,003,617,283
1,751,428,740,000
1,751,476,432,537
NO
0.01
10,192.647147
QnsNqny8qQ
criminal-negligence-charges-filed-a
Criminal negligence charges filed against Gavin Newsom or Karen Bass by March 31st 2025
null
1,739,998,487,313
1,743,379,200,000
1,743,640,964,532
NO
0.01
978.32077
89A662ZA80
will-calin-georgescu-be-allowed-to
Will Calin Georgescu be allowed to run for president?
null
1,739,996,681,021
1,742,332,028,862
1,742,332,028,862
NO
0.042188
1,897.460035
9OhpE2pcgs
will-gpt5-be-released-during-ramada
Will GPT-5 be released during Ramadan 2025?
null
1,739,990,651,508
1,743,453,484,733
1,743,453,484,733
NO
0.050544
767.512344
EhZqc0qqyh
will-there-be-another-major-plane-a
Will there be another major plane accident before the weekend arrives.
null
1,739,986,521,641
1,740,073,396,372
1,740,073,396,372
YES
0.988961
1,015
E0ZnPzClS8
will-dutch-electonic-customer-goods
Will Dutch electonic customer goods company allow me to post a negative review with the price information
null
1,739,984,662,609
1,740,610,740,000
1,742,505,656,150
NO
0.545143
166.123141
Z8dC8h2g8R
will-the-us-core-consumer-price-ind
Will the US Core Consumer Price Index for March 2025 grow more than 3.3% over 2024?
null
1,739,982,908,544
1,744,156,800,000
1,744,591,659,938
NO
0.279417
96
StqZI89PnO
will-anthropic-announce-a-new-model
Will anthropic announce a new model on February 19th?
null
1,739,977,281,123
1,740,052,992,586
1,740,052,992,586
NO
0.01
1,004.973992
5tqsnPlcCL
did-josh-seiter-actually-pass-away
Did Josh Seiter actually pass away in a mexican hotel?
null
1,739,966,174,247
1,741,262,154,810
1,741,262,154,810
NO
0.012048
1,050
hlIlt8NLAA
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-sppPgnOp5q
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Feb 19 than it closed on Feb 18?
null
1,739,961,162,105
1,739,998,872,351
1,739,998,872,351
YES
0.98961
10,375.219701
PNyZ9RzlPd
will-markus-soder-head-a-ministry-i
Will Markus Söder head a ministry in the upcoming German government?
null
1,739,960,109,763
1,749,205,564,370
1,749,205,564,370
NO
0.01
984.469722
pIcOE0gnCS
will-i-lift-weights-today-Enqgcdh8RR
Will I lift weights today?
null
1,739,958,243,921
1,740,027,540,000
1,740,122,119,811
NO
0.249247
120
hcECqCPsqq
will-the-reserve-bank-of-australia-PZyc2EuhQz
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates in April?
null
1,739,952,895,102
1,743,513,670,738
1,743,513,670,738
NO
0.01
9,734.943062
gIPCtO080p
will-max-carteroberstone-be-removed
Will Max Carter-Oberstone be removed from the San Francisco Police Commission? (please read)
null
1,739,950,348,274
1,740,641,609,203
1,740,641,609,203
YES
0.770701
93.095238
gNcuL2c5zR
daily-coinflip-ALq56hAgsL
Daily coinflip
null
1,739,948,231,700
1,740,113,940,000
1,740,118,692,878
YES
0.51
12,344.45505
s2ZNN2PEAl
will-the-minecraft-movie-get-over-5-SltuhcQC0s
Will the Minecraft movie get over 50% on Rotten Tomatoes?
null
1,739,939,882,463
1,744,422,446,188
1,744,422,446,188
NO
0.01
2,122.136726
dcLqA8tcNh
is-brenfred-autistic
Is Brenfred autistic?
null
1,739,936,094,759
1,740,549,540,000
1,740,554,061,298
YES
0.922835
272
n2902ycSUs
will-trump-fire-the-biden-era-us-at
Will Trump fire the Biden Era U.S. Attorneys?
null
1,739,929,817,310
1,743,479,940,000
1,745,598,630,969
YES
0.942782
4,123.214174
9y0SIZh2P9
will-jair-bolsonaro-be-arrested-bef-tp2Sqc0Itd
Will Jair Bolsonaro be arrested before July 1, 2025?
null
1,739,927,867,617
1,751,372,614,343
1,751,372,614,343
NO
0.01
1,055.913363
IcEQgC8U9z
will-robin-hanson-visit-uchicago-ra
Will Robin Hanson visit UChicago Rationality this May?
null
1,739,925,947,382
1,746,625,182,530
1,746,625,182,530
YES
0.922233
546.541264
Ln6tzscRPu
will-silksong-be-a-switch-2-launch
Will Silksong be a Switch 2 launch title (or be available within a month of launch)?
null
1,739,924,561,794
1,751,774,340,000
1,751,798,370,750
NO
0.002603
5,915.721763
9CCOppQzdy
will-i-replace-my-ambiguouslydamage
Will I replace my ambiguously-damaged AirPods case by the end of May?
null
1,739,921,346,693
1,748,761,140,000
1,748,798,243,123
NO
0.12
239.372709
U9t2CLCEsU
will-the-us-government-experience-a-RNqCtuuSlq
Will the U.S. Government experience a shutdown in February or March of 2025?
null
1,739,920,629,034
1,743,213,278,636
1,743,213,278,636
NO
0.009511
19,060.170943
uutlE86Z6c
will-sapde-stock-price-reach-or-exc
Will SAP.DE stock price reach or exceed €300 before the end of March 2025?
null
1,739,914,943,991
1,743,466,561,447
1,743,466,561,447
NO
0.01
919.855318
pOsdERczps
will-grok-remain-the-1-model-throug
Will Grok remain the #1 model on the Chatbot Arena through March 31? [Polymarket]
null
1,739,905,060,300
1,741,525,898,299
1,741,525,898,299
NO
0.020811
35,175.671516
CzhutlgyqR
roulette-wheel-will-it-land-on-red
Roulette Wheel Will it land on Red?
null
1,739,904,824,870
1,739,928,839,195
1,739,928,839,195
NO
0.302078
52
SStPZQhOcq
will-harry-get-called-to-a-statesid
Will Harry get called to a stateside mission?
null
1,739,901,905,142
1,744,040,805,304
1,744,040,805,304
YES
0.99
1,638.585274
UpPy2tshRp
will-i-get-m1000-in-trader-bonuses
M$1000 in trader bonuses from this question?
null
1,739,899,434,717
1,742,533,140,000
1,742,586,686,279
NO
0.01
2,480.034482
Z2OCPydAss
will-the-referenced-market-resolve-uOLQzSIl6t
Will the referenced market resolve after 2/19?
null
1,739,898,775,577
1,739,973,515,908
1,739,973,515,908
YES
0.99
1,495.580482
CQly05Nlpp
tug-of-war-qEc9IAcydA
Tug of war
null
1,739,897,886,070
1,740,113,940,000
1,740,151,263,033
YES
0.817184
355.527864
hzd8sClRR2
will-i-be-able-to-rent-an-h100-for
Will I be able to rent an H100 for under $2/hr on March 31?
null
1,739,895,055,697
1,743,569,940,000
1,743,738,399,370
NO
0.753846
75
NctnzZldQA
will-i-go-to-ipho-2025
Will I go to IPhO 2025?
null
1,739,893,256,084
1,746,099,670,438
1,746,099,670,438
YES
0.99
1,750.176184
0hdCp8O9sz
will-merck-co-inc-mrk-stock-price-c
Will Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) stock price close at or above $85 on February 28th?
null
1,739,891,779,599
1,740,776,847,424
1,740,776,847,424
YES
0.98179
645
qNEu5Q8hZc
will-luffy-lose-aura-next-chapter
Will Luffy lose aura next chapter?
null
1,739,885,943,663
1,740,003,892,419
1,740,003,892,419
YES
0.564826
71.406456
Rl9I9AULU5
mystery-market-2
Mystery Market #2!
null
1,739,884,282,524
1,740,545,940,000
1,740,614,468,087
YES
0.700433
891.021921
yluqORPPSg
will-this-question-get-250-traders
Will this question get 250 traders in 1 month?
null
1,739,883,721,072
1,742,221,679,750
1,742,221,679,750
YES
0.99
175,661.713303