Datasets:
CK0607
/
closed-manifold

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ypQq60tdAQ
biased-coin-flip-2
Biased Coin Flip #2
null
1,739,452,596,746
1,739,905,200,000
1,739,905,718,615
YES
0.6
318.970026
Ll8LclSZ8C
will-gpt45-rank-above-grok-3-on-cha
Will GPT-4.5 rank above Grok 3 on Chatbot Arena?
null
1,739,447,998,906
1,741,668,393,992
1,741,668,393,992
NO
0.002756
72,149.378073
2qCE88Rzs5
will-i-lift-weights-today-uIgcdA6uph
Will I lift weights today?
null
1,739,431,064,260
1,739,509,140,000
1,739,515,026,876
NO
0.189435
190.14728
gygcR9Ut8P
will-the-minecraft-movie-get-over-5
Will the Minecraft movie get over 55% on Rotten Tomatoes?
null
1,739,427,276,021
1,744,422,468,764
1,744,422,468,764
NO
0.01
2,260.046593
ERSdIqRRnu
in-the-next-30-days-will-hollow-kni-RQlNpSsOuh
In the next 30 days will Hollow Knight Silksong's release date be known?
null
1,739,412,243,310
1,742,011,140,000
1,742,011,416,446
NO
0.01
1,279.690595
dlgctQ6zts
will-an-egg-be-worth-more-than-a-do
Will an egg be worth more than a dollar before the end of March?
null
1,739,401,799,264
1,743,479,940,000
1,744,435,577,983
NO
0.016026
12,632.748012
Ipn65RndEU
the-coin-flip--cash
The coin flip
null
1,739,401,198,180
1,739,570,787,091
1,739,571,060,338
NO
0.51
298.625704
ZlAqdZU2QI
the-coin-flip
The coin flip
null
1,739,401,185,766
1,739,570,787,091
1,739,571,056,166
NO
0.5
41,613.418762
IdEy6shsZN
color-matching-game-perfect-score-i
Color Matching Game perfect score in February 2025?
null
1,739,395,252,731
1,740,873,281,743
1,740,875,483,701
NO
0.067388
2,970.310647
uC9E8p0Ztg
will-president-trump-publicly-insul
Will President Trump publicly insult either Putin or Zelenskyy in 2025?
null
1,739,395,101,356
1,739,999,700,356
1,739,999,700,356
YES
0.706031
398.260104
P5zIZ5ucZz
will-the-israel-hamas-ceasefire-end
Will the Israel - Hamas ceasefire end on Saturday?
null
1,739,375,301,781
1,739,613,600,000
1,739,910,726,724
NO
0.040334
8,195.873127
8LP0ll2Uz5
will-houthis-escalate-their-activit
Will houthis 🇾🇪 escalate their activities again before EOY 2025?
null
1,739,358,608,099
1,746,725,414,369
1,747,164,819,388
YES
0.984323
1,440.951731
L2gRS0qEO2
will-i-clean-my-home-for-at-least-2-hZL5A0hl6y
Will I do chores for at least 20 minutes per day* until the end of the year?
null
1,739,346,385,102
1,744,964,195,172
1,744,964,195,172
NO
0.512425
782.506434
PqNsu5PIUp
will-i-lift-weights-today-EZgNps850R
Will I lift weights today?
null
1,739,338,288,996
1,739,422,740,000
1,739,431,055,226
NO
0.229866
123.520338
zL2OCSURCO
will-the-usajmo-cutoffs-come-out-be
Will the USA(J)MO cutoffs come out before March?
null
1,739,326,680,573
1,740,806,928,243
1,740,806,928,243
NO
0.068771
581.243505
tUUqpPRctS
will-legit-gaming-leaks-on-twitterx
Will "legit gaming leaks" on Twitter/X get something wrong before December?
null
1,739,326,303,369
1,743,617,093,998
1,743,617,093,998
YES
0.947572
4,758.744871
l5p9lEZARL
will-bitcoin-dip-below-90000-by-the
Will bitcoin dip below $90,000 by the end of February 2025?
null
1,739,324,906,451
1,740,483,575,911
1,740,483,575,911
YES
0.99
4,384.469165
AlAEZcAIgC
will-o3minihigh-conclude-eating-mea
Will o3-mini-high conclude eating meat is ethically wrong based off of your arguments?
null
1,739,315,039,439
1,745,384,340,000
1,745,462,863,674
YES
0.853451
3,429.876426
ctz2EdtCPQ
bitcoin-above-97k-on-february-21
Bitcoin above $97K on February 21?
null
1,739,312,586,547
1,740,130,262,973
1,740,130,262,973
YES
0.990382
31,880.387425
AIPuC000Sp
will-i-play-magic-the-gathering-thi-nInLA0gh28
Will I play magic the gathering this week?
null
1,739,311,435,543
1,739,779,140,000
1,739,801,850,415
NO
0.590342
45
8ulNnEU9yp
will-mcdonalds-stock-surpass-500-do
Will Mcdonalds stock surpass 500 dollars within the next week?
null
1,739,311,361,482
1,739,827,979,655
1,739,827,979,655
NO
0.01
1,707.02711
UtltlQLnzh
will-general-brice-oligui-nguema-be
Will General Brice Oligui Nguema be declared winner of the upcoming Gabonese presidential election?
null
1,739,307,203,014
1,744,516,740,000
1,744,589,407,032
YES
0.943382
3,765.998819
dUSSP6R8Op
has-ezra-marcus-read-worm-2011
has ezra marcus read worm (2011)
null
1,739,305,222,183
1,739,305,984,661
1,739,305,984,661
NO
0.5
0
Ez8OnC25OC
will-there-be-another-notable-us-pl-qAI5ZqEqLL
Will there be *another* notable US plane crash in February?
null
1,739,305,024,224
1,739,398,339,447
1,739,398,339,447
YES
0.851361
680.431331
2PR58Uy9Oh
will-there-be-a-break-between-chain-t8Q8ClgOAI
Will there be a break between Chainsaw Man chapters 194 and 195?
null
1,739,304,047,218
1,740,531,507,280
1,740,531,512,737
NO
0.317461
1,088.653095
SNtdEO0QlC
will-president-trump-say-scam-altma
Will President Trump say “Scam Altman” before March 31st?
null
1,739,296,568,310
1,743,479,940,000
1,743,505,126,780
NO
0.012887
15,255.670084
Ah9LcRSgSg
will-the-fomc-cut-rates-at-their-ma
Will the FOMC cut rates at their March 2025 meeting?
null
1,739,291,696,877
1,742,430,730,133
1,742,430,730,133
NO
0.01
11,626.062514
pCg2p0qNI5
will-xai-release-a-reasoning-model
will xAI release a reasoning model this month?
null
1,739,287,924,763
1,739,948,198,615
1,739,948,198,615
YES
0.99
12,457.49241
Sn0ngz2Etc
will-grok-3-be-released-this-week
will Grok 3 be released this week?
null
1,739,287,855,581
1,739,789,940,000
1,739,790,951,862
NO
0.01
25,058.406929
nytcNc2Oq5
will-apple-maps-still-say-gulf-of-m
Will Apple Maps still say Gulf of Mexico at the end of February?
null
1,739,283,645,752
1,739,416,332,983
1,739,416,332,983
NO
0.009329
1,252.945415
EnAgO9EcpZ
tug-of-war-q6UC8nRIQO
Tug of war
null
1,739,283,488,544
1,739,422,740,000
1,739,897,829,513
NO
0.417747
356.209523
6UpESdOc8C
will-polymarkets-monthly-volume-dec
Will Polymarket’s monthly volume decline for three months straight?
null
1,739,280,629,418
1,743,483,021,523
1,743,483,021,523
NO
0.01
9,790.802149
LNAnAUINO6
will-trump-end-the-russiaukraine-wa-RAy2L5I05I
Will Trump end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 weeks of his inauguration?
null
1,739,280,443,863
1,751,925,540,000
1,751,950,409,044
NO
0.01
117,758.190057
9syS9schly
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-ll2h2sc9P2
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Feb 11 than it closed on Feb 10?
null
1,739,266,629,199
1,739,307,818,077
1,739,307,818,077
YES
0.99
13,942.222727
c9Q0dURCSl
will-i-lift-weights-today-00SgPnnhpu
Will I lift weights today?
null
1,739,262,685,150
1,739,336,340,000
1,739,338,268,473
YES
0.27852
246.342174
PNgL65pcSU
daily-coinflip-U0hLpgChCR
Daily coinflip 🔧
null
1,739,253,924,650
1,739,422,740,000
1,739,481,324,491
YES
0.505431
4,777.397649
I5QsPul5us
will-intel-corporation-intc-stock-p-A8SQC2NgAI
Will Intel Corporation (INTC) stock price close at or above $21 on February 28th?
null
1,739,242,813,793
1,740,776,569,315
1,740,776,569,315
YES
0.988544
924.928865
C9ZLRAC8QN
will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-draft-a
Will the Kansas City Chiefs draft an offensive lineman in the first round of the 2025 Draft?
null
1,739,241,570,381
1,745,625,034,564
1,745,625,034,564
YES
0.960158
410
QgPP2Q65On
will-spd-and-greens-combined-win-mo
Will SPD and Greens combined win more seats than CDU/CSU in the 2025 German federal election?
null
1,739,238,296,705
1,740,268,800,000
1,740,381,980,883
NO
0.195977
376.664483
qlNtuch2lg
will-the-cdc-website-still-have-a-c
Will the CDC website still have a "CDC’s website is being modified..." banner on May 15, 2025?
null
1,739,237,731,083
1,747,378,740,000
1,747,449,216,877
NO
0.01
935.812266
QdpyOs0Q5t
will-eric-adams-have-an-approval-ra
Will Eric Adams have an approval rating under 20% by June?
null
1,739,236,115,804
1,741,212,149,095
1,741,212,149,095
YES
0.99
1,148.911546
0ygqPpUUPu
will-10-silver-bulletin-articles-be
Will >10 Silver Bulletin articles be posted in February 2025?
null
1,739,235,474,678
1,740,840,069,053
1,740,840,069,053
YES
0.2
100
QdtnNAhllI
will-this-market-get-more-traders-t
Will this market get more traders than a random integer between 0 and 99 inclusive?
null
1,739,234,542,348
1,741,838,340,000
1,741,893,655,021
NO
0.375383
2,782.448238
uR2ylulLCE
will-i-promote-to-usaco-gold-on-the
Will I promote to USACO Gold on the 2025 Feburary USACO contest?
null
1,739,229,711,352
1,740,545,940,000
1,740,947,066,839
YES
0.983351
803.708243
dysyUO2nEy
will-the-sp-end-on-a-prime-number-t
Will the S&P End on a Prime Number this week excluding decimals.
null
1,739,224,590,705
1,739,571,607,322
1,739,571,607,322
NO
0.01
1,074.877369
Ppp62NhIER
flip-a-coin
Flip a coin
null
1,739,223,969,998
1,739,319,955,066
1,739,319,955,066
NO
0.49
64
yQcdntsc05
will-a-retriever-win-best-in-show-a
Will a retriever win Best In Show at Westminster 2025?
null
1,739,222,107,897
1,739,366,285,064
1,739,366,285,064
NO
0.011216
8,605
90usUtOcZI
will-manifold-be-accessible-again-b
Will Manifold be accessible again by 11:30 PM PT tonight?
null
1,739,221,435,176
1,739,259,066,988
1,739,259,066,988
YES
0.99
1,028.672047
INuQUzdSy8
will-captain-america-brave-new-worl-50NN9SPZP9
Will "Captain America: Brave New World" gross >$100 million during its domestic opening weekend?
null
1,739,221,250,654
1,739,516,340,000
1,740,177,941,825
NO
0.121054
2,706.541666
2052tsOhZU
will-luka-doncic-get-a-triple-doubl
Will Luka Dončić get a Triple Double tonight?
null
1,739,215,982,971
1,739,282,050,272
1,739,282,050,272
NO
0.01
8,969.874371
QyNhsOhRc9
scottie-scheffler-wins-the-2025-gen
Scottie Scheffler wins the 2025 Genesis Invitational
null
1,739,213,600,854
1,739,664,000,000
1,739,760,217,018
NO
0.08
468.027656
t88NtntOSp
will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-OcqAs0uqyl
Will there be a US government shutdown or funding gap, broadly defined, before March 20?
null
1,739,212,677,196
1,742,063,112,902
1,742,063,112,902
YES
0.985913
178,552.67462
lOlQN065l0
will-tadej-pogacar-start-the-2025-p
Will Tadej Pogacar start the 2025 Paris-Roubaix cycling race?
null
1,739,207,269,657
1,744,600,921,788
1,744,600,921,788
YES
0.99
15,906.233471
9zlCgUS9hs
mystery-market
Mystery Market #1!
null
1,739,204,675,279
1,739,854,740,000
1,739,883,895,195
NO
0.594979
8,095.009189
IgPtEtR8Zn
will-the-trump-administration-regai
Will the Trump administration regain access to the Treasury payment system before the end of February?
null
1,739,200,564,794
1,740,841,140,000
1,740,846,654,645
NO
0.01
1,046.81473
zC66cAqERI
will-missouri-state-university-canc
Will Missouri State University cancel classes/go remote all day Wednesday for weather?
null
1,739,200,356,718
1,739,368,932,360
1,739,368,932,360
NO
0.078628
43,475.190496
2Rhng2RnUE
donald-trump-publicly-endorses-cons
Donald Trump publicly endorses constitutional amendment for third term by March 11, 2025
null
1,739,200,345,835
1,741,651,200,000
1,743,008,842,945
NO
0.01
1,187.366341
Pyy6hOS2Ey
will-amazon-amzn-closer-higher-on-f
Will Amazon (AMZN) closer higher on Feb 14th, 2025 than it did on February 7th, 2025
null
1,739,192,362,156
1,739,597,038,745
1,739,597,038,745
NO
0.009849
10,351.051053
A0d6gtsL0O
will-mingcat-be-in-masters-season-2
Will @MingCat be in Masters Season 24?
null
1,739,188,581,059
1,743,567,093,126
1,743,567,093,126
YES
0.99
13,844.873193
OESA80EAy0
trump-announces-steel-and-aluminum
Trump announces steel and aluminum tariff rollback before March 1, 2025
null
1,739,185,022,830
1,740,787,200,000
1,740,787,712,853
NO
0.052384
875.483073
Ny6L8AIcLd
will-donald-trump-exclude-australia
Will Donald Trump exclude Australia in the steel tariffs by June 2025?
null
1,739,183,736,049
1,751,291,940,000
1,751,310,695,496
NO
0.023734
855.094326
tsc6yPOA0Q
will-i-lift-weights-today-0Uu0p6zp0A
Will I lift weights today?
null
1,739,166,473,727
1,739,249,940,000
1,739,262,672,619
NO
0.31402
135
QyAA08USuZ
does-the-jimmy-fallon-ice-cream-act
Does the Jimmy Fallon ice cream actually taste like Jimmy Fallon?
null
1,739,162,066,605
1,739,253,540,000
1,739,326,906,596
NO
0.02
1,370.574193
y9qshIRdAh
will-the-eagles-end-the-game-at-mor
Will the Eagles end the game at more than 45 points?
null
1,739,154,832,284
1,739,158,843,147
1,739,158,843,147
NO
0.01
13,833.854137
QAqt6Q0sUz
will-the-chiefs-end-the-game-at-0-p
Will the Chiefs end the game at 0 points?
null
1,739,153,884,268
1,739,154,444,564
1,739,154,444,564
NO
0.057368
3,461.815742
0tlnnpZysU
will-i-qualify-for-mop-2025
Will I qualify for MOP 2025?
null
1,739,152,596,773
1,745,252,400,000
1,745,354,017,570
NO
0.729622
11,664.720181
dNZl5Npc88
will-i-win-9-or-more-matches-of-mag
Will I win 9 or more matches of Magic at Regional Championship Charlotte?
null
1,739,146,633,851
1,741,478,786,455
1,741,478,786,455
NO
0.246041
1,190
duhZyEZutO
will-steel-tariffs-last-longer-than
Will steel tariffs last longer than a head of lettuce?
null
1,739,145,835,009
1,743,047,940,000
1,743,175,862,881
YES
0.989998
17,537.321772
AlOuSQQqII
hot-fuse-there-will-be-a-commercial
Hot fuse: There will be a commercial during the superbowl about Steven Spielberg's new movie 'disclosure'.
null
1,739,143,444,348
1,739,188,307,575
1,739,188,307,575
NO
0.050625
719.104883
uIUphLlIZP
will-robinhood-offer-sports-event-c
Will Robinhood offer sports event contracts on June 1?
null
1,739,137,650,967
1,748,840,340,000
1,748,846,264,713
YES
0.99
9,623.569096
l8LUptPqIZ
will-there-be-any-identical-questio
Will there be any identical questions on the USAJMO and USAMO?
null
1,739,136,581,606
1,742,356,740,000
1,742,437,549,236
YES
0.893758
1,178.466381
5IhP5UPh9Z
jailstool-market-cap-reaches-500m-b
Jailstool market cap reaches $500M before March 9, 2025
null
1,739,126,106,670
1,741,734,000,000
1,741,739,762,725
NO
0.01
905.035921
OnPI5hdhRC
will-trump-get-audibly-booed-at-the
Will Trump get audibly booed at the Super Bowl?
null
1,739,119,875,995
1,739,249,940,000
1,739,324,568,018
YES
0.24
978.04442
SI5qtZtAP9
will-the-trump-administration-rever
Will the Trump administration reverse the announced NIH indirect cost rate cap of 15% by the end of February 2025?
null
1,739,119,400,802
1,740,891,540,000
1,740,923,035,168
NO
0.061103
414.916952
d9OSOCq5Cy
will-there-be-any-break-between-one-sZLIPz6AUI
Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1140 and 1141?
null
1,739,116,400,435
1,740,325,418,845
1,740,325,423,958
NO
0.024987
17,970.992071
8tSnpdlR8q
will-there-be-any-break-between-kag-ZZ9l9nItIq
Will there be any break between Kagurabachi chapters 68 and 69?
null
1,739,116,363,368
1,739,721,307,837
1,739,721,310,648
NO
0.242502
966.606547
ndUgsdQdIn
will-i-believe-in-100-days-that-the
Will I believe in 100 days that the $100 billion statement by Elon Musk is accurate?
null
1,739,115,864,604
1,747,781,940,000
1,748,265,424,306
NO
0.041559
9,151.011685
p0lpzP8cCI
will-i-study-every-day-until-the-en
Will I study every day* until the end of March?
null
1,739,113,781,076
1,743,458,340,000
1,743,458,594,198
YES
0.93
2,889.997296
0Az5QgPnq5
will-i-leave-the-house-before-11-am-NplhlPd5Ph
Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day* until the end of the year?
null
1,739,112,489,345
1,740,997,984,199
1,740,997,984,199
NO
0.659875
502
tPs2Ey2Uqh
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-OhtZ6dgudq
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Feb 10 than it closed on Feb 7?
null
1,739,103,504,753
1,739,240,532,188
1,739,258,874,819
YES
0.989213
9,595.196927
ZuhnOyyQ9s
will-i-lift-weights-today-nAAchszdt5
Will I lift weights today?
null
1,739,085,509,253
1,739,163,540,000
1,739,166,459,557
NO
0.359357
143.776937
2E8zduS8tl
daily-coinflip-QQszALhgNg
Daily coinflip 🔧
null
1,739,079,604,114
1,739,249,940,000
1,739,253,908,071
NO
0.5005
10,353.52087
NI95hgzAsz
will-trump-impose-universal-or-near
Will Trump impose universal or near universal Tariffs on at least one NATO or Major Non Nato Ally by July 1st, 2025
null
1,739,079,519,251
1,741,064,527,065
1,741,064,527,065
YES
0.810426
137.284872
AQ05qZn8sy
will-i-regret-going-on-the-whatever
will i regret going on the whatever podcast
null
1,739,058,854,361
1,739,400,068,297
1,739,400,068,297
NO
0.067332
18,894.513151
UScZuyLOpc
will-us-non-farm-payroll-employment
Will US non farm payroll employment be higher in February than January?
null
1,739,053,465,834
1,741,354,566,501
1,741,354,566,501
YES
0.99
3,468.059705
UZPqyNOO68
will-taylor-swift-be-shown-at-least--cash
Will Taylor Swift be shown at least 10 times during the Super Bowl broadcast?
null
1,739,045,518,256
1,739,144,100,000
1,739,301,502,281
NO
0.492847
88.638093
S050t2NNNu
will-travis-kelce-propose-to-taylor-N9plhh8plZ--cash
Will Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift at the 2025 Super Bowl?
null
1,739,045,498,435
1,739,187,569,925
1,739,301,508,679
NO
0.01
411.663552
S8hPQONIlz
will-super-bowl-lix-be-the-most-wat
Will Super Bowl LIX be the most watched Super Bowl ever?
null
1,739,032,877,585
1,739,174,340,000
1,739,406,307,358
YES
0.205849
2,529.124371
Ll9NsSCt8A
will-i-make-usajmo-135-on-10a-9-on
Will I make USAJMO 135 on 10A + 9 on AIME I?
null
1,739,029,647,012
1,741,665,540,000
1,742,529,725,810
NO
0.01
2,496.293004
5EZULAnzlc
will-sizhe-pan-wake-up-before-3pm-o
Will Sizhe Pan wake up before 3pm on Feb 8 2025?
null
1,739,021,840,620
1,739,022,164,391
1,739,022,164,391
YES
0.6
22.474487
ygss0gRyIc
short-fuse-will-hailey-welch-hawk-t
(short fuse!) Will Hailey Welch (Hawk Tuah Girl) Be in a Super Bowl LIX Commercial?
null
1,739,020,178,212
1,739,285,940,000
1,739,286,643,041
NO
0.01
1,159.383357
0tPny0O8hZ
is-chocolate-in-the-chatbot-arena-g
Is "chocolate" in the Chatbot Arena Grok 3?
null
1,739,005,077,936
1,739,854,712,196
1,739,854,712,196
YES
0.99
1,833.771161
cPqh66LS9P
will-i-lift-weights-today-hsAISO5sAZ
Will I lift weights today?
null
1,738,993,896,837
1,739,077,140,000
1,739,085,495,215
NO
0.24874
141
R52S2tNqL5
resolves-05-sinsqrta-b-05-where-a-b-6h0PUOpCQz
Resolves @ 0.5 * sin(sqrt(a + b)) + 0.5, where a = biggest YES holder's # of shares and b = biggest NO holder's # shares
null
1,738,983,662,355
1,739,599,140,000
1,739,599,233,966
YES
0.739398
2,606.776049
E08Ih0npAy
before-july-2026-will-andrew-callag
Before July 2026, will Andrew Callaghan of Channel 5 upload a video with AI as a central focus?
null
1,738,977,186,721
1,749,121,848,905
1,749,121,848,905
YES
0.605523
148.23089
ZtCANchug2
will-there-be-a-ceasefire-in-ukrain-pLZpA9OdZs
Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before Skibidi Toilet episode 78 is released in full?
null
1,738,974,106,207
1,749,664,570,252
1,749,664,570,252
NO
0.058848
412.006171
zPtp60hSZC
will-trump-say-he-loves-elon-musk-i
Will Donald Trump say he loves Elon Musk, in 2025?
null
1,738,969,498,956
1,740,950,312,207
1,740,950,312,207
YES
0.987567
20,748.6104
qc5Ngul5Ll
clean-swiftie-special-will-the-chie
["Clean" Swiftie Special] Will the Chiefs win all four quarters?
null
1,738,968,289,215
1,739,143,740,000
1,739,150,271,900
NO
0.051533
13,628.005179
zcEN9y5POZ
will-o3-be-added-to-the-chatbot-are
Will o3 be added to the chatbot arena leaderboard (lmarena.org) within 3 weeks of its release?
null
1,738,968,202,764
1,745,454,660,620
1,745,454,660,620
YES
0.98977
16,949.211911
UEyndCyOO8
will-taylor-swift-donald-trump-shak
Will Taylor Swift & Donald Trump shake hands at Super Bowl LIX?
null
1,738,966,533,532
1,739,141,940,000
1,739,162,726,722
NO
0.019354
17,217.851899