Datasets:
CK0607
/
closed-manifold

Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
Community
1
id
stringlengths
9
20
slug
stringlengths
4
54
question
stringlengths
1
120
firstGroup
float64
createdTime
int64
1,715B
1,752B
closeTime
int64
1,717B
1,752B
resolvedTime
int64
1,736B
1,752B
resolution
stringclasses
2 values
resolutionProbability
float64
0
1
volume
float64
0
6.93M
OpnnUSyOud
will-i-beat-all-balatro-decks-gold
Will I beat all Balatro decks gold stake in the next month
null
1,739,869,598,083
1,741,019,595,217
1,741,019,595,217
YES
0.895522
455.078501
hU90uUlIcy
bitcoin-above-97k-on-february-28
Bitcoin above $97K on February 28?
null
1,739,858,658,381
1,740,815,940,000
1,740,876,534,182
NO
0.008028
18,222.099515
uQPqRs0sg8
will-i-lift-weights-today-sdEPs66LsZ
Will I lift weights today?
null
1,739,858,551,792
1,739,941,140,000
1,739,958,227,912
NO
0.2
100
ZthSn0dcPn
will-openai-release-gpt45-before-ma
Will OpenAI release GPT-4.5 before March 1st, 2025?
null
1,739,854,747,605
1,740,691,154,229
1,740,691,154,229
YES
0.99
2,653.079189
PZyLUy2SdR
will-this-question-get-at-least-50
Will this question get at least 50 traders in a month?
null
1,739,853,375,728
1,742,446,740,000
1,742,475,841,920
YES
0.999771
14,840.785748
26dL0qzzSg
will-this-question-get-more-than-69
Will this question get more than 69% yesses?
null
1,739,850,784,470
1,740,463,140,000
1,740,523,510,254
YES
0.95
581.724491
pEgqAPhEPs
will-the-referenced-market-resolve
Will the referenced market resolve before 2/19?
null
1,739,848,032,311
1,739,951,517,843
1,739,951,517,843
NO
0.01
1,497.94971
sNQuPc0l2c
will-lexer-attend-vibecamp-2025
Will LEXER attend VibeCamp 2025?
null
1,739,847,375,599
1,750,719,540,000
1,750,735,254,249
YES
0.970012
974.987437
LCyud9zdA9
will-this-question-get-more-than-50
Will this question get more than 50% yesses?
null
1,739,845,513,757
1,740,463,140,000
1,740,490,718,857
NO
0.07691
2,436.249553
EELOgUZOus
will-lorxus-have-some-kind-of-emplo
Will Lorxus have some kind of employment or paid research position by July 1, 2025?
null
1,739,844,950,824
1,743,712,064,366
1,743,712,064,366
YES
0.95
634.130669
dCAz9ps86g
will-i-make-usapho-2025-u0EULEOUts
Will I make USAPHO 2025?
null
1,739,843,976,699
1,742,446,740,000
1,742,475,857,695
YES
0.93606
517
SUtAygct2U
will-amc10a-aimei-cutoff-be-higher
Will AMC10A + AIMEI cutoff be higher than AMC10B + AIMEI?
null
1,739,843,704,266
1,740,463,140,000
1,740,523,529,166
NO
0.190709
106
89PIc5nAII
this-market-resolves-to-the-xor-of-8uNAqt99A0
This market resolves to the xor of all other markets referencing "Will three different individuals create a market ..."
null
1,739,842,297,316
1,741,064,340,000
1,741,168,391,550
NO
0.253699
5,968.997765
Lg9R8tS2c5
will-i-start-to-return-a-larger-pro
Will I start to return a larger profit.
null
1,739,839,420,309
1,739,912,430,977
1,739,912,430,977
NO
0.569429
15
AOngs9n6hh
juneteenth-is-celebrated-as-a-feder
Juneteenth is celebrated as a federal holiday in the United States in 2025
null
1,739,837,876,451
1,750,423,603,587
1,750,423,603,587
YES
0.99
1,235.653217
9RUgu5c85d
will-xai-open-source-grok-2-before
Will xAI open source Grok 2 before April?
null
1,739,834,432,656
1,740,297,540,000
1,743,543,712,323
NO
0.620591
2,961.223295
02C8LytIgu
will-three-different-individuals-cr
Will three different individuals create a market about this market within the next week?
null
1,739,832,097,087
1,739,948,104,427
1,739,948,104,427
YES
0.985115
19,090.189511
Lclzd2OhCZ
will-trump-and-putin-meet-in-person-9EZ5QcLsCc
Will Trump and Putin meet in person by the end of February 2025?
null
1,739,830,193,874
1,740,816,997,228
1,740,816,997,228
NO
0.01
1,297.043029
pq2ApnddSd
will-gggong-be-on-a-usaco-platinum
will gg_gong be on a usaco platinum leadeboard this season?
null
1,739,827,142,699
1,743,490,740,000
1,744,569,494,139
NO
0.114924
1,285.130862
SlntpcQ5ug
will-missouri-state-university-canc-2UyRRsncZ5
Will Missouri State University cancel all classes/go remote all day Wednesday due to weather?
null
1,739,825,904,904
1,739,913,430,679
1,739,913,430,679
YES
0.539979
6,524.285202
hsncEU09P0
will-the-united-states-win-the-2025
Will the United States win the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off championship? 🏒
null
1,739,822,100,942
1,740,112,534,690
1,740,112,534,690
NO
0.01
11,777.363028
tRd8E2cuLN
will-energy-transfer-win-its-300-mi
Will Energy Transfer win its $300 million lawsuit against Greenpeace?
null
1,739,817,248,345
1,742,486,055,893
1,742,486,055,893
YES
0.502175
62.474487
Z8R06LghOR
will-gpt45-be-released-today
Will GPT-4.5 be released today?
null
1,739,812,868,222
1,739,962,740,000
1,739,962,951,035
NO
0.029156
768.744551
y9ZzLcOO2U
will-openai-make-a-significant-anno
Will OpenAI make a significant announcement related to GPT-4.5 on either the 17th or 18th of February, 2025?
null
1,739,812,501,408
1,739,923,140,000
1,739,959,302,677
NO
0.081736
2,910.331648
28tA2N5Z6g
will-i-accept-a-job-offer-by-the-en
Will I accept a job offer by the end of March?
null
1,739,808,993,676
1,743,483,540,000
1,743,510,861,388
NO
0.016662
796
OR02SdNLg8
will-the-minecraft-movie-get-over-4
Will the Minecraft movie get over 45% on Rotten Tomatoes?
null
1,739,808,979,781
1,744,441,140,000
1,744,441,184,495
YES
0.989591
2,663.129639
dhIpl8N5Rc
will-bitcoin-surpass-110000-by-the-09Zq2As9Aq
Will bitcoin surpass $110,000 by the end of March 2025?
null
1,739,806,742,636
1,743,506,727,899
1,743,506,727,899
NO
0.01
2,902.858351
QdudLcsUZg
will-i-play-magic-the-gathering-thi-8Q9NEyUz6p
Will I play magic the gathering this week?
null
1,739,801,896,896
1,740,383,940,000
1,740,451,785,454
NO
0.590164
20
9t5cq2tud8
will-xai-release-a-reasoning-model-NA5NyPRZq8
will xAI release a reasoning model today?
null
1,739,801,228,836
1,739,865,540,000
1,739,959,115,073
YES
0.950885
14,715.768756
SN20tnyclN
will-amazon-amzn-close-higher-on-fe-zOcOyRlA9u
Will Amazon (AMZN) close higher on February 21st than it did on February 14th
null
1,739,798,818,588
1,740,184,253,717
1,740,184,253,717
NO
0.01
9,550.455091
tstNs5tsnt
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-gQtzNpLUEA
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Feb 18 than it closed on Feb 14?
null
1,739,795,485,064
1,739,912,415,272
1,739,912,415,272
YES
0.973866
8,626.005244
ApqAu8d58p
will-the-total-goals-scored-exceed
Will the total goals scored exceed 2.5 in the Leicester City vs Brentford match by on February 21, 2025
null
1,739,793,998,599
1,740,167,100,000
1,740,179,851,252
YES
0.62361
222.97137
2yLRhy0ZAu
napoli-beats-inter-milan-in-serie-a
Will Napoli beat Inter Milan in Serie A match on March 1st, 2025
null
1,739,788,650,417
1,740,856,709,124
1,740,856,709,124
NO
0.034034
3,565.372885
cNd8ERlARS
will-jordan-accept-2000-gaza-refuge
Will Jordan accept >2000 Gaza refugees under Trump's plan by June 2025?
null
1,739,786,789,012
1,748,736,000,000
1,749,300,184,321
NO
0.025886
14,575.670609
S5QEsRcSOE
will-the-cdu-end-up-below-30-of-the
Will the CDU end up below 30% of the vote in the German Federal Elections (February 23rd)
null
1,739,786,136,470
1,740,441,540,000
1,740,585,555,543
YES
0.99
2,475.480253
0tzccEE5Ed
will-alternative-fur-deutschland-wi
Will 'Alternative für Deutschland' win more than 25% of the vote in the next German Federal Election (23rd of February)
null
1,739,785,461,354
1,740,441,540,000
1,740,585,536,009
NO
0.012468
2,054.525153
CnsdtdycOu
israel-maintains-all-5-military-out
Israel maintains all 5 military outposts in southern Lebanon through April 1st, 2025
null
1,739,784,413,934
1,743,465,600,000
1,743,517,693,456
YES
0.958403
380
90sn02ZCsp
will-i-not-eat-anything-after-6-pm
Will I not eat anything after 6 p.m. until the end of February?
null
1,739,778,004,069
1,739,986,482,897
1,739,986,482,897
NO
0.571277
76
Q05ztIZ90t
daily-coinflip-uqZP92Uczp
Daily coinflip
null
1,739,770,659,384
1,739,941,140,000
1,739,948,214,630
NO
0.5
7,020
2tQSNPOAU6
will-i-lift-weights-today-dsOlqclypI
Will I lift weights today?
null
1,739,770,199,560
1,739,854,740,000
1,739,858,539,275
NO
0.23405
122.297386
PQ0py98pcy
will-manifest-2025-tickets-sell-out
Will Manifest 2025 tickets sell out?
null
1,739,768,649,655
1,749,445,140,000
1,749,446,048,724
NO
0.071338
401.406233
NdcClRzqyU
will-openai-release-a-devin-competi
Will OpenAI release a Devin competitor in 2025?
null
1,739,765,088,648
1,748,467,876,403
1,748,467,876,403
YES
0.975979
5,992.851636
pn2dZ5SSI6
my-partner-has-to-fly-to-the-west-c
My partner has to fly to the West Coast in March. Will he survive? Context: https://x.com/esjesjesj/status/18913188260
null
1,739,761,529,314
1,741,443,808,819
1,741,443,808,819
YES
0.922804
420.253542
0Ql26P2IAE
will-a-steel-ball-run-anime-adaptat
Will a Steel Ball Run anime adaptation be announced at JOJODAY?
null
1,739,758,480,269
1,744,516,740,000
1,744,526,654,729
YES
0.988526
1,101.841878
qQqcu0czuO
will-i-win-indiana-mathcounts-state
will i win indiana mathcounts state comp
null
1,739,755,673,184
1,742,097,540,000
1,742,693,106,575
NO
0.774333
115
d8AZQQCNLt
will-the-supreme-court-permit-the-f
Will the Supreme Court permit the firing of Hampton Dellinger by the Trump Administration?
null
1,739,754,825,607
1,741,373,303,466
1,741,373,303,466
YES
0.871134
598.914224
Q6Cc9zUSsq
will-there-be-more-than-25-goals-sc-nPRQOILIEc
Will there be more than 2.5 goals scored in the Everton vs Manchester United match on February 22, 2025
null
1,739,746,176,092
1,740,244,744,601
1,740,244,744,601
YES
0.99
1,044.037424
lztq0sU2gt
is-vaping-better-than-smoking
Is Vaping better than smoking
null
1,739,744,617,933
1,739,861,940,000
1,739,889,874,619
YES
0.95
1,068.265813
zCItpN0gPt
will-al-and-lj-be-official-before-a
will AL and LJ be official before AL leaves NY?
null
1,739,741,221,209
1,739,823,215,109
1,739,823,215,109
NO
0.19263
1,325
qNlIcz2chU
do-ashley-st-clair-and-elon-musk-ha
Do Ashley St. Clair and Elon Musk have a son?
null
1,739,738,834,478
1,744,785,052,660
1,744,785,052,660
YES
0.948215
4,991.002792
ZyQCSgUq0S
will-there-be-snowfall-reported-wit
Will there be snowfall reported within the state of Mississippi again before the end of 2025?
null
1,739,728,414,668
1,740,245,393,204
1,740,245,393,204
YES
0.38
149.236775
6Iqg8pU9Oz
will-there-be-any-break-between-kag-ECEpCs2cOs
Will there be any break between Kagurabachi chapters 69 and 70?
null
1,739,721,322,562
1,740,325,450,727
1,740,325,457,190
NO
0.257826
110
9UQd6nO2ng
will-germany-need-a-three-party-coa
Will Germany need a three party coalition?
null
1,739,717,694,613
1,740,378,879,364
1,740,378,879,364
NO
0.006501
5,355.693057
5tpqgL9ds9
will-manifold-win-at-hangman
Will Manifold win at hangman?
null
1,739,706,975,483
1,740,464,227,548
1,740,464,227,548
NO
0.05
4,494.673143
yQEN5RUutd
will-i-lift-weights-today-cscPLpA2OE
Will I lift weights today?
null
1,739,694,615,542
1,739,768,340,000
1,739,770,184,914
YES
0.246154
75
62utyz69nP
will-elon-be-offline-until-grok-3
Will Elon be "offline until Grok 3"?
null
1,739,694,340,824
1,739,725,675,950
1,739,725,675,950
NO
0.009738
10,630.800257
lApu6sszzN
will-there-be-any-assassination-att-lU69cQ8Pl0
Will there be any assassination attempt on Trump on the Ides of March?
null
1,739,684,825,734
1,742,314,336,649
1,742,314,336,649
NO
0.01
1,175.420787
pqlsZnyIAy
will-elon-be-able-to-keep-from-post
Will Elon be able to keep from posting on Twitter until Monday 8pm PT?
null
1,739,675,258,594
1,739,742,677,192
1,739,742,677,192
NO
0.034782
708.092055
l9nQURL6NP
liverpool-wins-premier-league-title
Liverpool wins Premier League title before May 16, 2025
null
1,739,659,427,054
1,743,292,800,000
1,747,688,487,436
YES
0.972515
507.155621
udIq8ngNId
will-the-fdp-reach-5-percent-in-the
Will the FDP reach 5+ percent in the upcoming German Election?
null
1,739,647,785,521
1,740,435,144,866
1,740,435,144,866
NO
0.002238
3,794.628837
NEnS25husu
will-i-get-top-10-on-hmmt
Will I get top 10 on HMMT?
null
1,739,647,555,056
1,739,665,204,165
1,739,665,204,165
NO
0.01
9,178.4458
LNzd9LstNp
did-muhammad-exist-will-david-wood
Did Muhammad Exist? - Will David Wood Defeat Robert Spencer?
null
1,739,646,575,624
1,739,681,940,000
1,739,764,512,814
NO
0.759073
21,707.262328
zECUPh8PuN
will-ksp2-v0230-or-higher-release-o
Will KSP2 v0.2.3.0 or higher release on Steam by the end of June 2025?
null
1,739,644,539,889
1,751,353,140,000
1,751,379,241,547
NO
0.045724
414
p5NNLz2hQq
will-i-have-a-fever-of-371c-or-abov
Will I have a fever of 37.1c or above tomorrow (Feb 16) at 12:00 noon EST
null
1,739,637,280,183
1,739,725,028,491
1,739,725,028,491
YES
0.305346
58
RLsdRtQlId
on-20-february-2025-the-tesla-stock
On 20 March 2025, the Apple stock will be higher than on 15 February 2025?
null
1,739,615,019,978
1,741,215,540,000
1,742,616,748,455
NO
0.476766
10,992.325175
65NtZUIlnL
on-20-february-2025-the-microsoft-s
On 20 March 2025, the Apple stock will be higher than on 15 March 2025?
null
1,739,614,848,365
1,741,993,140,000
1,746,444,259,475
NO
0.554759
14,577.787312
u2y2ZhCytl
will-missouri-state-university-canc-qn6psQ6qEZ
Will Missouri State University cancel all classes/go remote all day Tuesday due to weather?
null
1,739,599,425,813
1,739,825,767,059
1,739,825,767,059
YES
0.83232
22,685.331173
nRC85qQ980
daily-coinflip-lU9ZSNtS0u
Daily coinflip
null
1,739,597,485,621
1,739,768,340,000
1,739,770,636,309
YES
0.5
4,091.819068
cq5RQP9Un8
will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-zA8PppL9Ln
Will the US debt ceiling be raised or suspended before March 17, 2025?
null
1,739,596,335,064
1,742,194,740,000
1,742,220,909,791
NO
0.01
22,873.546717
n52uPAn86y
will-i-lift-weights-today-tCU2sggLN8
Will I lift weights today?
null
1,739,595,751,047
1,739,681,940,000
1,739,694,601,853
NO
0.342329
90
PsPqsqtU5s
69-traders-in-30-days
69 traders in 30 days?
null
1,739,588,307,610
1,742,162,953,647
1,742,162,953,647
YES
0.998724
10,116.317096
u6SSUNquIn
will-man-city-beat-real-madrid-in-t
Will Man City Beat Real madrid in the ucl
null
1,739,587,881,311
1,740,031,140,000
1,741,751,372,237
NO
0.008059
1,578.971832
dOq89tIScc
was-milei-hacked
Was Milei hacked?
null
1,739,584,611,257
1,739,858,795,623
1,739,858,795,623
NO
0.01
27,114.924133
AQd8uzNdRU
are-the-earthquakes-around-greek-is
Are the earthquakes around Greek islands caused by a technological artifact waking up?
null
1,739,573,374,239
1,749,664,455,675
1,749,664,455,675
NO
0.050686
1,232.592461
szlusdZSCp
will-the-mox-open-house-make-the-ne
Will the Mox Open House make the news?
null
1,739,572,660,637
1,740,268,800,000
1,740,428,285,656
NO
0.113599
2,000
5LcNdNIQRE
will-the-rams-trade-matthew-staffor
Will the Rams trade Matthew Stafford by May 7, 2025?
null
1,739,569,111,963
1,746,763,140,000
1,746,790,987,595
NO
0.01
9,405.288369
8ysz0nAyuR
insane-new-starbucks-cup-top-is-gon
Insane new Starbucks cup top is gone by mid 2025
null
1,739,569,084,935
1,744,056,240,022
1,744,056,240,022
YES
0.371021
115
ZQlZlqp6Ep
will-the-ai-safety-clock-reach-23-m
Will the AI Safety Clock reach 23 minutes to midnight by March 2025?
null
1,739,567,228,938
1,742,897,994,399
1,742,897,994,399
NO
0.01
914.078346
58dlh6tqOL
will-my-girlfriend-cry-watching-tit
Will my girlfriend cry watching titanic?
null
1,739,563,858,788
1,739,579,978,960
1,739,579,978,960
NO
0.647266
146
uL6Ogl62cP
will-i-cry-watching-titanic
Will I Cry Watching Titanic?
null
1,739,563,797,060
1,739,579,990,131
1,739,579,990,131
NO
0.257069
70
tQRqEA2ts9
will-trump-or-anyone-else-attempt-t
Will Trump (or anyone else) attempt to change the name of the Kennedy Center by the end of March 2025?
null
1,739,563,554,423
1,743,479,940,000
1,743,505,018,728
NO
0.01
12,966.070903
CEpNPhhpAy
iaea-confirms-russian-responsibilit
IAEA confirms Russian responsibility for Chernobyl drone attack by April 1st 2025
null
1,739,558,847,453
1,743,465,600,000
1,743,691,098,812
NO
0.021619
6,633.931799
06NI0NdlN0
will-any-uk-political-party-consist
Will any UK political party consistently poll at 30% or higher in 2025?
null
1,739,547,292,531
1,749,250,740,000
1,749,270,407,123
YES
0.990952
11,531.75502
nsNnQ0nqLh
spx-intraday-record-today
SPX intraday record today?
null
1,739,543,792,482
1,739,577,837,679
1,739,577,837,679
NO
0.01
9,645.343682
0IyyugAzz5
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-lRsILtuygy
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Feb 14 than it closed on Feb 13?
null
1,739,540,037,444
1,739,602,998,214
1,739,602,998,214
NO
0.009445
13,494.002424
ZtculUZAAg
will-codebuff-succeed-at-building-a
Will Codebuff succeed at building an interactive app for dragging around bits of probability mass?
null
1,739,530,264,610
1,739,606,340,000
1,739,646,808,647
YES
0.99
10,180.022829
A2Un2IzOlP
does-aristotle-come-back-to-ny-sing
does aristotle come back to NY single?
null
1,739,519,930,768
1,739,823,199,146
1,739,823,199,146
YES
0.691416
1,705.473586
cpNOhAAdhC
will-secondary-gain-hinder-me-from
Will secondary gain hinder me in meeting market conditions next week?
null
1,739,517,502,088
1,740,351,540,000
1,740,352,341,824
NO
0.337838
40
9NuZc0O6ns
will-i-lift-weights-today-gOQOQzcEPd
Will I lift weights today?
null
1,739,515,043,472
1,739,595,540,000
1,739,595,733,589
NO
0.34904
140
S2hPZlQuPQ
will-we-learn-by-end-of-2028-that-u
Will we learn by end of 2028 that USAID funded WIV in 2010s?
null
1,739,498,470,195
1,739,583,478,819
1,739,583,478,819
YES
0.677003
2,102.628723
gdAS0ZAZ85
will-manifold-think-the-new-claude
Will Manifold think the new Claude is the best LLM available to the public after it releases?
null
1,739,488,808,220
1,740,124,740,000
1,741,658,763,894
YES
0.711633
2,834.276619
lQl2OZCEh8
will-juventus-beat-inter-milan-seri
Will Juventus beat Inter Milan (Serie A Derby D'Italia match February 16, 2025)?
null
1,739,482,122,492
1,739,741,988,607
1,739,741,988,607
YES
0.766256
551.826379
nA80Q5uLp6
daily-coinflip-sczOO5SpPp
Daily coinflip
null
1,739,481,345,456
1,739,595,540,000
1,739,597,460,910
YES
0.49
1,330
AEUNUESSEE
will-i-get-a-girlfriend-before-i-ge-zOAS2yNOCh
Will I get a girlfriend before I get an award on USAMO?
null
1,739,481,235,712
1,742,423,687,733
1,742,423,687,733
NO
0.055611
8,303.274552
5pl8I0zpNL
will-manifold-think-grok-3-is-the-b
Will Manifold think Grok 3 is the best LLM available to the public after it releases?
null
1,739,479,394,656
1,739,851,140,000
1,741,129,466,925
YES
0.232445
4,979.989685
tcO0h899uL
will-fargo-north-dakota-still-use-a
Will Fargo, North Dakota still use Approval Voting at the end of 2025
null
1,739,478,996,006
1,750,413,389,867
1,750,413,389,867
NO
0.256206
127
8lgRqUgzP8
if-tadej-pogacar-starts-at-2025-par
If Tadej Pogacar starts at 2025 Paris-Roubaix, will he win?
null
1,739,468,654,319
1,744,576,911,297
1,744,576,911,297
NO
0.008243
3,894.787881
IRUh9Q5LPd
will-any-ai-score-30-or-more-on-hum
Will any AI score 30% or more on Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before Ramadan 2025?
null
1,739,464,675,643
1,740,776,340,000
1,740,856,851,508
NO
0.0619
603.390392
y8szZsy5O0
will-bitcoin-drop-below-85000-at-an
Will bitcoin drop below $85,000 at any point during 2025.
null
1,739,457,750,817
1,740,612,974,838
1,740,612,974,838
YES
0.99
9,760.853638
hd2tq26A59
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-yn58LyltzI
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Feb 13 than it closed on Feb 12?
null
1,739,452,720,760
1,739,480,483,988
1,739,480,483,988
YES
0.96618
4,595.633276