id stringlengths 9 20 | slug stringlengths 4 54 | question stringlengths 1 120 | firstGroup float64 | createdTime int64 1,715B 1,752B | closeTime int64 1,717B 1,752B | resolvedTime int64 1,736B 1,752B | resolution stringclasses 2 values | resolutionProbability float64 0 1 | volume float64 0 6.93M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
pqpC5ZSpPN | will-travis-kelce-propose-to-taylor-N9plhh8plZ | Will Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift at the 2025 Super Bowl? | null | 1,737,327,815,959 | 1,739,187,569,925 | 1,739,187,569,925 | NO | 0.009631 | 20,405.417187 |
gzEzu0zZPd | will-soaks-get-huzz-by-2026 | Will soaks get huzz by 2026 | null | 1,737,322,575,112 | 1,739,946,207,757 | 1,739,946,207,757 | YES | 0.495025 | 1 |
QqtR9NUUhO | will-another-member-of-the-trump-fa | Will another member of the Trump Family release a self-styled cryptocurrency "meme" token before March 1, 2025? | null | 1,737,321,708,457 | 1,741,517,793,703 | 1,741,517,793,703 | NO | 0.009948 | 10,054.448953 |
O6tzt6NqOy | shanks-twin-stock | Shamrock Stock | null | 1,737,318,780,553 | 1,740,268,929,216 | 1,740,268,929,216 | YES | 0.962813 | 1,199.010362 |
NIOpyz6zCs | loki-stocks | Loki Stocks | null | 1,737,318,557,558 | 1,740,268,633,407 | 1,740,268,660,762 | YES | 0.956602 | 1,986.456507 |
CpRsctdOu5 | will-andrew-cuomo-announce-he-is-ru-Q6qnUShZzR | Will Andrew Cuomo announce he is running for NYC mayor by the end of Tuesday? | null | 1,737,316,707,621 | 1,737,521,940,000 | 1,737,522,960,537 | NO | 0.039364 | 394 |
Iu5gzIP8Od | will-andrew-cuomo-announce-he-is-ru | Will Andrew Cuomo announce he is running for NYC mayor by the end of January? | null | 1,737,316,695,220 | 1,738,472,340,000 | 1,738,472,574,209 | NO | 0.01 | 1,000.526121 |
pl52zpluPc | will-5000-herds-of-livestock-be-inf | Will 5000 herds of livestock be infected by H5N1 by the end of June 2025? | null | 1,737,315,443,240 | 1,751,328,015,775 | 1,751,328,015,775 | NO | 0.014424 | 840.443411 |
LIpUNPPPg2 | san-francisco-fentanyl-state-of-eme | San Francisco “Fentanyl State of Emergency” ordinance passes | null | 1,737,314,003,784 | 1,739,318,078,253 | 1,739,318,078,253 | YES | 0.900294 | 2,744.86811 |
uR8g2LqhIA | se-hizo-honduras-un-pais-mas-autori | ¿Se hizo Honduras un país más autoritario en 2024? / Did Honduras become more authoritarian in 2024? | null | 1,737,305,725,578 | 1,740,693,488,401 | 1,740,693,488,401 | NO | 0.145507 | 179 |
5d0gutz262 | will-there-be-any-break-between-kag-PhuLtgdns8 | Will there be any break between Kagurabachi chapters 65 and 66? | null | 1,737,304,886,595 | 1,737,904,797,802 | 1,737,904,800,260 | NO | 0.204592 | 1,128.258144 |
ENlnIpngEI | will-there-be-any-break-between-one-9dL2EpzNqI | Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1137 and 1138? | null | 1,737,304,853,229 | 1,737,904,761,374 | 1,737,904,763,859 | NO | 0.056302 | 3,921.919305 |
Etzyulyhgy | daily-coinflip-60St2d580h | Daily coinflip | null | 1,737,301,341,991 | 1,737,435,540,000 | 1,737,450,550,307 | NO | 0.5 | 7,509.10021 |
Q6QQ5AR9pO | short-fuse-will-i-get-into-capital | [short fuse 💣] Will I get into Capital One Arena for the inauguration? | null | 1,737,292,277,749 | 1,737,381,373,605 | 1,737,381,373,605 | YES | 0.981577 | 6,780.105594 |
0Uqhd260cz | will-i-leave-the-house-before-11-am | Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every* day until the end of February? | null | 1,737,285,924,737 | 1,738,763,259,099 | 1,738,763,259,099 | NO | 0.487027 | 203.462896 |
R2Us9Nl8S8 | will-trump-coin-official-trump-get | Will $Trump coin (Official Trump) get to a fully diluted valuation of $100 billion by January 21? | null | 1,737,278,223,344 | 1,737,437,895,443 | 1,737,437,895,443 | NO | 0.028311 | 9,174.826436 |
5dUhzRg8pl | will-i-get-strep-throat-this-week | Will I get strep throat this week? | null | 1,737,273,279,309 | 1,737,825,814,019 | 1,737,825,822,712 | NO | 0.147761 | 197 |
uNh29ZZ6pn | will-there-be-a-request-limit-for-u | Will there be a request limit for using o3 in the $200 / month subscription? | null | 1,737,270,521,832 | 1,749,106,062,737 | 1,749,106,062,737 | NO | 0.650682 | 324.41733 |
cUNl9Z2ScI | will-simmi-rejoin-kalshi-or-houseco | Will Simmi rejoin Kalshi or Housecord Discord Servers by Feb 1 2025? | null | 1,737,269,980,914 | 1,737,272,412,655 | 1,737,272,412,655 | YES | 0.987237 | 2,011.569989 |
6RZ99CpUPt | will-trump-coin-official-trump-surp | Will $Trump coin (Official Trump) surpass the fully diluted valuation of $DOGE (Dogecoin) by April 2025? | null | 1,737,268,840,666 | 1,737,277,478,164 | 1,737,277,478,164 | YES | 0.961069 | 4,450 |
yL8gsc5dhU | will-i-be-able-to-download-tiktok-o-lNlCO6gINP | Will I be able to download TikTok on the Google Play store and have it function normally by the end of February? | null | 1,737,266,607,787 | 1,737,314,035,431 | 1,737,314,035,431 | YES | 0.942066 | 4,132.677572 |
Rnz8yAPLPQ | will-i-be-able-to-download-tiktok-o | Will I be able to download TikTok on the Google Play store and have it function normally by the end of January? | null | 1,737,266,582,837 | 1,737,314,024,133 | 1,737,314,024,133 | YES | 0.962033 | 5,554.683023 |
dy2ltE99RC | will-i-lift-weights-today-Qu0ulQygyd | Will I lift weights today? | null | 1,737,263,535,636 | 1,737,349,140,000 | 1,737,391,215,856 | NO | 0.609756 | 70 |
cUdZszZgOd | will-the-baltimore-ravens-beat-the-6RcOhNyU98 | Will the Baltimore Ravens beat the Buffalo Bills? | null | 1,737,260,058,702 | 1,737,352,740,000 | 1,737,595,760,682 | NO | 0.01 | 1,808.641997 |
ZcCCAzC2QP | will-i-recover-my-stolen-jacket-by | Will I recover my stolen jacket by 1/27 | null | 1,737,251,192,678 | 1,738,051,140,000 | 1,738,112,214,893 | NO | 0.11387 | 478 |
l8stUR9I2t | will-bytedance-announce-they-have-a | Will ByteDance announce they have accepted a bid for TikTok before April 30, 2025? | null | 1,737,234,114,496 | 1,746,261,351,729 | 1,746,261,351,729 | NO | 0.023797 | 8,537.881343 |
l0gIPy6sAs | perplexity-ai-and-tiktok-us-announc | Perplexity AI and TikTok U.S. announce a merger agreement by April 16, 2025 | null | 1,737,231,184,384 | 1,744,761,600,000 | 1,744,767,644,773 | NO | 0.011144 | 1,397.803054 |
slQts5A62O | chiefs-and-lions-to-win-today | Chiefs and Lions to win today? | null | 1,737,229,042,444 | 1,737,260,706,051 | 1,737,260,706,051 | NO | 0.01 | 1,757.893765 |
SOdEdqLQCI | trump-coin-has-a-90-drawdown-at-any-nU8nuU9SPZ | $TRUMP coin has a 90% drawdown at any point before August 2025? | null | 1,737,219,341,290 | 1,744,013,560,432 | 1,744,013,560,432 | YES | 0.964488 | 1,445.26033 |
ZnZELy2ZCz | trump-meme-coin-price-above-50-befo | $TRUMP meme coin price above $50 before Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025 | null | 1,737,219,280,684 | 1,737,276,738,387 | 1,737,276,738,387 | YES | 0.98871 | 1,059.193802 |
cnqcOE8UZ8 | will-any-us-state-have-more-than-50-0ZLts5UIAQ | Will any U.S. State have more than 500,000 customers without power in 2025? | null | 1,737,217,942,353 | 1,745,975,355,661 | 1,745,975,355,661 | YES | 0.970761 | 1,015.017893 |
88g08tq0Sh | trump-coin-has-a-90-drawdown-at-any | $TRUMP coin has a 90% drawdown at any point before March 2025 | null | 1,737,213,787,877 | 1,740,783,540,000 | 1,740,819,293,487 | NO | 0.0128 | 4,862.925741 |
szyOlLCI0I | virat-kohli-plays-county-cricket-be | Virat Kohli plays county cricket before England tour in 2025 | null | 1,737,185,095,673 | 1,746,144,000,000 | 1,747,032,167,762 | NO | 0.224235 | 486 |
uhItcSL8dI | will-i-lift-weights-today-sctRCS55np | Will I lift weights today? | null | 1,737,181,335,684 | 1,737,262,740,000 | 1,737,263,519,187 | YES | 0.620798 | 75 |
gQqI2h5LsR | 30-days-from-today-will-gamestop-ha-htLQ826tuC | 30 days from today, will Gamestop have the same CEO as today? | null | 1,737,178,262,230 | 1,739,854,740,000 | 1,740,514,047,967 | YES | 0.989996 | 939.208983 |
QNySg2SU50 | will-the-trump-meme-coin-trump-turn | Will the Trump meme coin $TRUMP turn out to be a scam? | null | 1,737,173,829,167 | 1,737,391,622,515 | 1,737,391,622,515 | NO | 0.002114 | 1,369.715517 |
h2pdlsupZc | spacex-starship-flight-8-lands-succ | SpaceX Starship Flight 8 lands successfully without destruction by April 1st, 2025 | null | 1,737,173,647,649 | 1,741,499,032,783 | 1,741,499,032,783 | NO | 0.01 | 27,650.638053 |
hLlIC6QphP | southampton-breaks-the-record-of-wo | Southampton breaks the record of worst Premier League team? | null | 1,737,173,436,395 | 1,745,078,810,378 | 1,745,078,810,378 | NO | 0.01 | 9,324.159344 |
8ths5OnONS | will-the-price-of-chicken-leg-quart | Will the price of chicken leg quarters increase? | null | 1,737,173,248,936 | 1,739,768,340,000 | 1,739,770,226,434 | NO | 0.056586 | 550.882351 |
t66zLhQ6dL | will-ea-games-studio-bioware-edmont | Will EA Games' studio Bioware Edmonton (Veilguard, Mass Effect Andromeda) shutdown *be announced* before April 1, 2025? | null | 1,737,165,887,985 | 1,743,577,140,000 | 1,743,820,837,258 | NO | 0.048683 | 588 |
0CEOunlc9d | will-georgia-unsuspend-all-poultry | Will Georgia unsuspend any poultry activity before February? | null | 1,737,161,308,761 | 1,738,396,740,000 | 1,738,965,804,826 | NO | 0.01 | 121,392.473664 |
zyAn6yQChI | will-trumproberts-screw-up-the-oath | Will Trump/Roberts screw up the oath of office? | null | 1,737,159,936,952 | 1,737,392,833,252 | 1,737,392,833,252 | NO | 0.170108 | 2,966.268298 |
cAlL2NqgUy | sp-500-closes-higher-on-friday-janu-5lL2UhhUg9 | S&P 500 Closes Higher On Friday January 24th 2025 Than It Closed On Friday January 17th 2025? (SP500F-#4) | null | 1,737,155,290,222 | 1,737,752,400,000 | 1,737,753,395,409 | YES | 0.99 | 9,112.415695 |
2QgRCnRsPn | will-the-israelhamas-ceasefire-exte | Will the Israel-Hamas ceasefire extend into Phase 2? | null | 1,737,151,667,861 | 1,742,329,431,036 | 1,742,329,431,036 | NO | 0.01 | 27,491.013374 |
yp2ctglN9t | -will-there-be-a-lasting-formal-bil--cash | 🛑⚔️ Will There Be A Lasting, Formal, Bi-laterally Signed Ceasefire In The 2023 Israel–Hamas War By End Of 2025? | null | 1,737,150,377,073 | 1,738,132,200,000 | 1,738,191,649,149 | YES | 0.981965 | 195.82481 |
EPSpECnhOR | will-there-be-a-break-between-chain-ZuqCuC8hq5 | Will there be a break between Chainsaw Man chapters 191 and 192? | null | 1,737,141,362,082 | 1,738,094,479,193 | 1,738,094,482,140 | NO | 0.392153 | 245 |
npNP5dLn0P | will-becky-talk-to-euan-ong-this-we | Will Becky talk to Euan Ong this weekend? | null | 1,737,129,507,309 | 1,737,200,043,277 | 1,737,200,043,277 | YES | 0.95366 | 705 |
z0u08UR5P8 | does-the-base-nintendo-switch-2-joy | Do the base Nintendo Switch 2 Joy-Cons have Hall effect analog sticks? | null | 1,737,128,327,650 | 1,744,074,471,214 | 1,744,074,471,214 | NO | 0.010489 | 989.141243 |
5dCgdpt26Q | will-additional-undersea-cable-inci | Will additional undersea cable incidents be reported near Taiwan by March 15th, 2025? | null | 1,737,127,147,804 | 1,741,996,800,000 | 1,743,497,450,150 | YES | 0.950018 | 1,012.463333 |
udzCy0ASQ5 | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-ssU9Cu5A8s | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Jan 21 than it closed on Jan 17? | null | 1,737,125,497,214 | 1,737,493,447,180 | 1,737,493,447,180 | YES | 0.873169 | 403.245006 |
9hyOpAC5ql | will-this-question-get-60-traders | Will this question get 60 traders? | null | 1,737,125,225,736 | 1,737,781,140,000 | 1,737,811,186,791 | YES | 0.993925 | 2,802.073371 |
8NLypCtqpN | in-february-will-the-israel-defence | In February, will the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) carry out ≥5 fatal airstrikes in Gaza whilst a ceasefire is active? | null | 1,737,124,534,364 | 1,740,787,140,000 | 1,743,534,717,060 | NO | 0.231063 | 4,755.216204 |
u2PPnNU8U5 | will-the-chinese-version-of-xiaohon | Will the Chinese version of XiaoHongShu (Red Note) still be accessible to US users in March 2025? | null | 1,737,124,446,388 | 1,740,841,616,020 | 1,740,841,616,020 | YES | 0.99 | 906.77864 |
qUUy58zSEu | will-270-of-manifold-respondents-ag | Will >= 27.0% of Manifold respondents agree that non-human intelligence has influenced Earth in the January 2025 poll? | null | 1,737,119,240,345 | 1,738,299,540,000 | 1,738,324,563,233 | NO | 0.026775 | 7,903.231669 |
9SgZLlS6ly | will-i-find-a-german-prediction-mar | Will I find a German prediction market heavy-user to meet and talk about prediction markets for a journalistic text? | null | 1,737,118,269,782 | 1,738,364,340,000 | 1,738,599,101,932 | YES | 0.796685 | 284.70547 |
uqCchtuuSN | daily-coinflip-Qd2SnQQzCs | Daily coinflip | null | 1,737,099,747,782 | 1,737,262,740,000 | 1,737,301,278,595 | NO | 0.495074 | 3,501.510745 |
tp0hLI8OU6 | will-i-lift-weights-today-OszQtsAl6g | Will I lift weights today? | null | 1,737,092,064,191 | 1,737,176,340,000 | 1,737,181,322,990 | NO | 0.548249 | 50 |
U29OLclEqd | paul-skenes-1of-1-debut-patch-pulle | Paul Skenes' 1of 1 debut patch pulled before 2025 MLB Opening Day | null | 1,737,088,582,006 | 1,737,486,757,361 | 1,737,486,757,361 | YES | 0.519648 | 600 |
EApllhAy5s | will-elon-musk-suspend-or-resign-fr | Will Elon Musk suspend or resign from his Department of Government Efficiency role by October 15? | null | 1,737,081,129,119 | 1,748,565,745,607 | 1,748,565,745,607 | YES | 0.938828 | 698.338561 |
OZgsICOLCP | by-september-4will-new-york-city-an | By September 4, will New York City announce a systemwide public school cellphone ban? | null | 1,737,080,948,889 | 1,743,725,405,237 | 1,743,725,405,237 | YES | 0.221453 | 281.153846 |
zEg8Rhz0yL | will-the-311-hotline-in-sf-receive | Will the 311 hotline in SF receive fewer requests for “street and sidewalk cleaning” in May 2025 than in May 2024? | null | 1,737,080,887,363 | 1,749,988,644,837 | 1,749,988,644,837 | NO | 0.331113 | 121.458816 |
LP669g5gsn | will-tesla-globally-deliver-more-ve | Will Tesla globally deliver more vehicles in the first half of 2025 than it did in the first half of 2024? | null | 1,737,080,691,110 | 1,751,491,574,863 | 1,751,491,574,863 | NO | 0.01 | 1,030.67359 |
EnnR8nN6uN | by-july-1-will-the-world-break-the | By July 1, will the world break the current record (19) for total number of people in space simultaneously? | null | 1,737,080,625,152 | 1,751,381,348,544 | 1,751,381,348,544 | YES | 0.502262 | 3,775.702416 |
gph2AA88dl | will-pierre-poilievre-become-canada | Will Pierre Poilievre become Canada’s prime minister before the conclusion of the 2025 Stanley Cup Final? | null | 1,737,080,570,712 | 1,750,215,237,126 | 1,750,215,237,126 | NO | 0.008254 | 2,321.112344 |
NIlZhzcnLy | will-iran-announceby-june-4that-it | Will Iran announce by June 4 that it has developed a nuclear weapons capability? | null | 1,737,080,509,271 | 1,749,129,996,135 | 1,749,129,996,135 | NO | 0.01 | 1,730.518274 |
nEpRuzqttR | will-a-forbes-30-under-30-winner-of | Will a Forbes 30 Under 30 winner of any vintage be arrested before June 1? | null | 1,737,080,456,183 | 1,748,796,326,538 | 1,748,796,326,538 | NO | 0.206044 | 205 |
RnOlAzgSIR | will-at-least-three-countries-broad | Will at least three countries’ broadcasters formally oppose Israel’s participation in the Eurovision Song Competition? | null | 1,737,080,401,822 | 1,747,522,864,831 | 1,747,522,864,831 | NO | 0.295368 | 809.554769 |
sEqNQpptPu | will-the-cdc-report-more-us-measles | Will the CDC report more US measles cases in Q1 of 2025 than in Q1 of 2024? | null | 1,737,080,342,108 | 1,740,598,764,744 | 1,740,598,764,744 | YES | 0.854903 | 146.365059 |
u0ZtqgsZPy | will-russia-and-ukraine-agree-to-a | Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire or other cessation of hostilities before the 100th day of Trump’s term? | null | 1,737,080,278,372 | 1,746,011,881,993 | 1,746,011,881,993 | NO | 0.01 | 11,725.335352 |
lzUIE0ZnNg | will-at-least-five-f500-cos-announc | Will at least five F500 cos announce between Jan 19 and Apr 1 that they are exiting the HRC Corporate Equality Index? | null | 1,737,080,175,106 | 1,743,527,411,631 | 1,743,527,411,631 | NO | 0.371747 | 50 |
zyS5Ply0cP | will-at-least-9-of-the-10-largest-g | Will at least 9 of the 10 largest global companies by market cap on January 13 will be in the top 10 on March 31? | null | 1,737,079,966,315 | 1,743,443,923,509 | 1,743,443,923,509 | YES | 0.857194 | 145 |
gp0uP6OEOs | will-the-guttmacher-institute-repor | Will the Guttmacher Institute report that the number of US abortions in 2024 increased over 2023? | null | 1,737,079,909,324 | 1,744,738,642,113 | 1,744,738,642,113 | YES | 0.857194 | 145 |
QysuPszqhn | will-alex-karps-the-technological-r | Will Alex Karp’s “The Technological Republic” become a New York Times bestseller by March 5? | null | 1,737,079,851,905 | 1,740,624,194,382 | 1,740,624,194,382 | YES | 0.628253 | 30 |
EEZApCAUUL | will-primetime-ratings-for-fox-news | Will Primetime ratings for Fox News during week of February 10 exceed the combined primetime ratings of CNN and MSNBC? | null | 1,737,079,780,667 | 1,740,113,940,000 | 1,740,139,594,462 | YES | 0.75 | 73.205081 |
A9nU5cgg0t | will-the-beatles-win-more-2025-gram | Will the Beatles win more 2025 Grammys than Jimmy Carter? | null | 1,737,079,084,878 | 1,738,555,321,021 | 1,738,555,321,021 | NO | 0.038648 | 1,129.501047 |
pp5sUhCsPA | will-the-backlog-of-unresolved-ques | Will my backlog of unresolved questions be mostly cleared at any time before June 1st 2025? | null | 1,737,078,301,484 | 1,748,836,740,000 | 1,748,881,213,011 | NO | 0.018193 | 12,972.803039 |
QsEy2ZAQ9Z | will-pornhub-in-the-uk-require-age | Will PornHub in the UK require age verification by July 2025? | null | 1,737,067,433,113 | 1,751,338,862,745 | 1,751,338,862,745 | NO | 0.01 | 12,684.470948 |
0QLztO6l0U | will-trump-claim-his-2025-inaugurat | Will Trump claim his 2025 inauguration crowd was the largest ever? | null | 1,737,064,719,574 | 1,738,396,740,000 | 1,738,616,429,437 | NO | 0.06 | 2,815.404378 |
gqCRyUQ220 | la-mayor-karen-bass-ousted-by-end-o | LA Mayor Karen Bass ousted by end of Feb? | null | 1,737,063,315,673 | 1,740,815,940,000 | 1,740,876,776,800 | NO | 0.01 | 1,210.457217 |
I8SpupuONu | musk-and-tump-will-fall-out-by-end | Musk and Tump will fall out by end of 2025 | null | 1,737,063,096,436 | 1,749,234,050,246 | 1,749,234,050,246 | YES | 0.985678 | 18,456.343691 |
hA5u8qAcOt | will-trumps-second-inauguration-add--cash | Will Trump's second inauguration address be >50% longer than his first inauguration address? (by word count) | null | 1,737,062,887,250 | 1,737,359,940,000 | 1,737,577,430,754 | YES | 0.455806 | 40.774705 |
CN0hcOgCLu | will-the-markets-assessed-probabili | Will the market’s assessed probability be relatively prime to the number of traders it has at 12PM EST on January 19th? | null | 1,737,057,228,609 | 1,737,306,669,090 | 1,737,306,669,090 | YES | 0.83 | 252.670864 |
Q5N8hLn65C | will-the-2025-state-of-the-union-ad | Will the 2025 State of the Union address mention UFO/UAP/NHI/Aliens topic? | null | 1,737,055,142,457 | 1,741,200,733,091 | 1,741,200,733,091 | NO | 0.010112 | 23,378.948969 |
UINuN85sCh | will-cnn-foxnews-nytimes-bloomberg | Will cnn, foxnews, nytimes, bloomberg,or nypost report Israel is "world’s second-highest jailor of journalists in 2024"? | null | 1,737,054,998,239 | 1,739,689,140,000 | 1,740,268,776,280 | NO | 0.2 | 107.169884 |
Z8uszP99nn | will-cnn-or-foxnews-report-hamas-re | Will cnn or foxnews report "Hamas recruited almost as many new militants as it has lost" (Blinken)? | null | 1,737,051,276,339 | 1,737,428,001,412 | 1,737,428,001,412 | YES | 0.36 | 70 |
O6IEZIznUh | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-s52QsE62gA | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Jan 17 than it closed on Jan 16? | null | 1,737,047,285,859 | 1,737,147,734,451 | 1,737,147,734,451 | YES | 0.920728 | 256 |
9yzPpO2Suz | will-570-of-manifold-respondents-ag | Will >= 57.0% of Manifold respondents agree that weak AGI has been achieved in the January 2025 poll? | null | 1,737,030,830,628 | 1,738,299,540,000 | 1,738,324,484,304 | NO | 0.058599 | 3,554.258927 |
t2LRSSIg90 | will-the-last-minute-breakdown-of-t | Will the "last minute" breakdown of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire last until January 31, 2025? | null | 1,737,019,433,486 | 1,737,291,348,499 | 1,737,291,348,499 | NO | 0.038601 | 8,924.150281 |
nyyg5h8s25 | bitcoin-above-98k-on-jan-24th | Bitcoin above $98K on Jan 24th? | null | 1,737,012,145,824 | 1,737,708,602,076 | 1,737,708,602,076 | YES | 0.989977 | 16,419.829021 |
LSdhnI6IgP | will-the-nintendo-switch-2-be-revea--cash | Will the "Nintendo Switch 2" be revealed in January? | null | 1,737,008,305,578 | 1,737,036,021,086 | 1,737,055,077,876 | YES | 0.940621 | 52.695302 |
0R0nNdN2Pd | will-i-lift-weights-today-Q9SPyLPRL2 | Will I lift weights today? | null | 1,737,006,865,705 | 1,737,089,940,000 | 1,737,092,048,111 | YES | 0.60044 | 65 |
cnZIsLnN60 | will-i-get-into-sparc-2025 | Will I get into SPARC 2025? | null | 1,737,005,352,931 | 1,742,343,226,708 | 1,742,343,226,708 | YES | 0.992751 | 13,034.014225 |
8E80USnhQ6 | will-o1-debug-my-codebase-faster-th | Will o1 debug my codebase faster than me? | null | 1,736,998,306,277 | 1,737,000,492,947 | 1,737,000,492,947 | NO | 0.01 | 9,316.541038 |
SSy05UAU2O | will-the-nintendo-switch-be-announc | Will the Nintendo Switch 2 be announced by end of day 1/16/2025 | null | 1,736,991,599,502 | 1,737,039,283,159 | 1,737,039,283,159 | YES | 0.99 | 1,177.024575 |
Sgnq90zU20 | will-cnn-or-foxnews-or-nytimes-repo | Will cnn or foxnews or nytimes report "Hamas recruited almost as many new militants as it has lost" (Blinken)? | null | 1,736,988,728,022 | 1,737,051,370,762 | 1,737,051,370,762 | YES | 0.475624 | 50 |
sUuCqZ9OR0 | israel-strike-on-iran-by-feb-1 | Israel strike on Iran by Feb 1 | null | 1,736,980,278,798 | 1,738,396,740,000 | 1,738,429,179,543 | NO | 0.014057 | 16,176.775891 |
g2qPu82qyQ | will-trumps-second-inauguration-add-L5pgpddL6p | Will Trump's second inauguration address be longer than his first inauguration address? (by word count) | null | 1,736,979,455,615 | 1,737,359,940,000 | 1,737,418,247,227 | YES | 0.782828 | 3,387.839998 |
yO6ScqAIyn | will-another-agi-lab-publish-an-eco | Will another AGI lab publish an economic blueprint document after OpenAI? | null | 1,736,977,872,766 | 1,739,606,340,000 | 1,740,074,401,688 | YES | 0.466145 | 195 |
ApZ0tN5Qy8 | will-bernie-sanders-vote-to-confirm | Will Bernie Sanders vote Yes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard? | null | 1,736,975,923,793 | 1,740,505,937,954 | 1,740,505,937,954 | NO | 0.009011 | 21,076.62851 |
z9cdtg8ONZ | will-the-rafah-crossing-open-for-ci | Will the Rafah crossing open for civilian movement by January 26, 2025 (7 days after ceasefire start)? | null | 1,736,975,292,655 | 1,738,000,826,465 | 1,738,000,826,465 | NO | 0.107217 | 407.814144 |
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