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5-or-more-confirmed-violent-tornado
Will there be 5 or more confirmed violent tornadoes (EF4 or EF5) occur in the USA during 2025?
null
1,738,161,451,270
1,747,780,485,664
1,747,780,485,664
YES
0.829362
344.960303
q6OdRIUI60
will-bitcoin-surpass-115000-by-the
Will bitcoin surpass $115,000 by the end of February 2025?
null
1,738,153,466,509
1,740,880,691,838
1,740,880,691,838
NO
0.01
5,218.710948
UgEsLtUsIg
will-openai-reveal-thinking-tokens
Will OpenAI reveal thinking tokens by the end of June 2025?
null
1,738,151,438,831
1,751,324,340,000
1,751,354,964,224
NO
0.01
28,105.031787
zInuc6u0cU
will-an-italian-tennis-player-win-a
Will an Italian tennis player win a title at the 2025 Italian Open?
null
1,738,150,068,535
1,747,694,283,888
1,747,694,283,888
YES
0.994519
1,635.066729
ZtpEyOSNs5
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-6IQzndsC6p
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Jan 29 than it closed on Jan 28?
null
1,738,149,043,586
1,738,187,345,191
1,738,187,345,191
NO
0.029867
8,049.008149
EL89cOdSn0
will-the-us-rise-in-the-happiness-r
Will the US rise in the happiness rankings from 2024 to 2025?
null
1,738,147,683,033
1,743,528,201,607
1,743,528,201,607
NO
0.028668
13,641.932362
C8zpgUnZQR
will-trump-again-express-intent-to
Will Trump again express intent to run for a third term while he is president, before the end of Febuary 2025?
null
1,738,140,685,500
1,740,815,940,000
1,741,030,483,047
YES
0.678134
9,327.308316
sA685lh9ZA
bitcoin-above-102k-on-feb-10
Bitcoin above $102K on Feb 10?
null
1,738,137,849,173
1,739,260,740,000
1,739,308,692,856
NO
0.01
37,263.878202
UOqhNQZC2s
will-mayor-eric-adams-of-nyc-resign
Will Mayor Eric Adam’s of NYC resign by 10pm, Jan 31, 2025?
null
1,738,130,163,828
1,738,379,662,572
1,738,379,662,572
NO
0.01
1,442.766
g6uuuP0LdR
will-i-lift-weights-today-EhhtRhuOPZ
Will I lift weights today?
null
1,738,129,842,555
1,738,213,140,000
1,738,218,309,527
NO
0.45
53.696345
QQN6ncZ95I
will-there-be-market-manipulation-i
Will the market based questions in ACX 2025 be annulled?
null
1,738,124,187,243
1,738,779,518,755
1,738,779,518,755
YES
0.983477
14,836.078211
lsplIEPgdn
will-o3-openai-model-be-released-be
Will o3 (OpenAI model) be released before March 2025?
null
1,738,120,100,741
1,740,891,540,000
1,740,965,836,933
NO
0.02257
23,133.470456
RnngsIuu65
will-i-get-a-special-illustration-r
Will I get a Special Illustration Rare from Prismatic Evolutions before Valentines day?
null
1,738,119,428,706
1,739,599,140,000
1,739,734,547,312
NO
0.145347
142.488702
tPN8gSdLR0
will-trump-announce-mass-layoffs-on
Will Trump announce mass layoffs on Feb 7?
null
1,738,112,628,325
1,738,967,686,902
1,738,967,686,902
NO
0.148166
28,111.581376
ISApEyZ6Et
will-anthropic-release-a-reasoning-2hnyyyQcp9
Will Anthropic release a reasoning model before March 2025?
null
1,738,103,905,345
1,740,430,759,818
1,740,430,759,818
YES
0.986246
37,912.568793
ROCCnIRNzg
will-5han-be-the-1-tetra-league-pla
Will 5han be the #1 tetra league player on tetr.io on february 7th?
null
1,738,101,581,903
1,738,960,200,000
1,738,962,437,373
NO
0.090783
255.69889
Q5c22S88S9
will-taylor-swift-perform-at-the-su-8CghNQ5SuR
Will Taylor Swift Perform at the Super Bowl LIX Halftime Show
null
1,738,098,782,909
1,739,159,789,178
1,739,159,789,178
NO
0.01
9,938.868523
9s0OhsP9UL
will-there-be-a-break-between-chain-5OntP5PQ0n
Will there be a break between Chainsaw Man chapters 192 and 193?
null
1,738,094,498,687
1,738,705,909,061
1,738,705,912,192
NO
0.300695
525
8tt9qSpqPL
pepfar-funding-unfrozen-by-apr-15-2
PEPFAR funding unfrozen by Apr 15, 2025
null
1,738,092,486,202
1,738,853,155,091
1,738,853,155,091
YES
0.93937
29,576.026587
z8RtluPuCP
will-the-super-bowl-coin-flip-to-he
Will the Super Bowl Coin flip to heads?
null
1,738,089,889,486
1,739,144,198,634
1,739,144,198,634
NO
0.015061
890.583734
ls6StqZQdR
will-xai-be-ahead-of-deepseek-on-ju
Will xAI be ahead of DeepSeek on June 30
null
1,738,088,202,875
1,751,284,740,000
1,751,285,992,381
NO
0.022237
23,541.967724
tlLntLEz22
will-nvda-reach-usd-before-et-hits
Will NVDA reach 200 USD before it hits 100 USD?
null
1,738,081,778,563
1,743,847,570,667
1,743,847,570,667
NO
0.31
136.026687
5pdZhggPyh
will-i-play-magic-the-gathering-wit
Will I play Magic: The Gathering with friends this weekend?
null
1,738,080,740,480
1,738,540,800,000
1,738,567,026,153
NO
0.493848
11
RRtz6dtSIU
average-lifespan-of-domesticated-ho
Average lifespan of domesticated horses increases beyond 30 years by March 2025
null
1,738,077,883,648
1,738,078,994,789
1,738,078,994,789
NO
0.01
894.987437
UNuthRL2SC
according-to-trump-microsoft-is-in
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok before 4th April, 2025? [Read description]
null
1,738,067,595,849
1,743,793,140,000
1,743,793,841,941
NO
0.01
6,239.566094
IUEALnn9y5
will-this-question-get-70-traders-i
Will this question get 70 traders in 1 week?
null
1,738,065,925,166
1,738,731,540,000
1,738,757,261,311
YES
0.99
9,580.234642
LZCOuEyUzc
daily-coinflip-qc9q2t5dZt
Daily coinflip
null
1,738,047,017,797
1,738,213,140,000
1,738,226,892,723
YES
0.504905
5,192.164482
uPdA0Ny5sS
will-deepseek-still-to-rank-higher
Will DeepSeek still to rank higher on the app store than ChatGPT in a month?
null
1,738,044,360,439
1,740,877,200,000
1,740,883,207,030
NO
0.097968
493.085258
qAcPdCdhIz
deepseek-35-released-tomorrow
DeepSeek 3.5 released tomorrow?
null
1,738,041,830,572
1,738,148,340,000
1,738,196,316,497
NO
0.103455
2,709
8LAIyN8zZt
will-i-lift-weights-today-nR2dhg2ZCQ
Will I lift weights today?
null
1,738,041,553,704
1,738,126,740,000
1,738,129,830,433
YES
0.567378
75
dgRA2p0Ich
will-manifold-be-able-to-solve-this
Will Manifold be able to solve this NYT Connections-style puzzle?
null
1,738,025,465,128
1,738,052,070,551
1,738,052,070,551
YES
0.99
4,954.717063
CAUp0EhCt5
will-eric-adams-be-mayor-of-nyc-whe
Will Eric Adams be mayor of NYC when grok 3 releases?
null
1,738,022,081,010
1,740,062,432,719
1,740,062,432,719
YES
0.99
1,633.897736
A9sdll6lug
will-i-qualify-for-usapho-this-year
Will I qualify for USAPhO this year?
null
1,738,021,257,724
1,739,350,800,000
1,742,185,220,319
YES
0.652486
768.494624
g9CSn9OUsu
will-this-question-get-over-395-tra
Will this question get over 39.5 traders by Feb 17 2025?
null
1,738,019,776,894
1,739,838,019,518
1,739,838,019,518
NO
0.043376
2,057.099811
uQ826nQh2I
will-o3mini-beat-deepseek-r1-in-liv
Will o3-mini beat DeepSeek r1 in LiveBench?
null
1,738,019,580,046
1,738,372,921,298
1,738,372,921,298
YES
0.988563
1,051.481567
6PgZdpZAqU
jimmy-butler-plays-another-game-for
Jimmy Butler plays another game for the Miami Heat before playing a game for another NBA team
null
1,738,017,880,328
1,738,655,940,000
1,739,093,791,918
NO
0.124403
4,688.558953
pEnCE0lANd
will-marvel-rivals-fall-off-in-popu
Will Marvel Rivals fall off in popularity before the new Captain America movie?
null
1,738,017,167,648
1,739,599,140,000
1,739,734,535,417
NO
0.121804
366.529832
qUzIlQEN9N
baron-trump-meme-coin-before-march
Will Baron Trump release his own meme coin before March 1st?
null
1,738,014,602,474
1,740,815,940,000
1,740,841,298,201
NO
0.014526
8,718.877976
Ls9sc5PdsL
will-ww3-break-out-within-the-next
Will WW3 break out within the next four years as a result of the Russia v. Ukraine conflict.
null
1,738,008,419,462
1,738,608,824,655
1,738,608,824,655
NO
0.084104
230
lSSZhuzg9t
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-OLU0ZQyu2O
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Jan 28 than it closed on Jan 27?
null
1,738,005,711,610
1,738,098,539,524
1,738,098,539,524
YES
0.834987
177.290472
S2ALNEcsyt
will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-4peat
Will the Kansas City Chiefs 4-peat as NFL Champions?
null
1,738,004,003,000
1,739,157,751,305
1,739,157,751,305
NO
0.01
16,852.57058
L02zzglSUl
will-jannik-sinner-be-suspended-in
Will Jannik Sinner be suspended in 2025 as a result of his positive clostebol tests from 2024?
null
1,738,004,001,257
1,739,627,067,691
1,739,627,067,691
YES
0.967248
4,486
PQcOnqEty5
will-nvda-recover-this-month
Will NVDA recover this month?
null
1,738,003,460,485
1,738,368,000,000
1,738,368,537,785
NO
0.091848
23,603.75882
qNLOIuy0zA
will-this-post-regarding-the-deepse
Will this post regarding the DeepSeek stock market crash and a "scam angle" be proven correct?
null
1,738,001,792,354
1,746,071,940,000
1,746,100,404,378
NO
0.048267
4,065.332221
QE05dPht5L
will-president-trump-speak-negative
Will President Trump speak negatively about Sam Altman by the end of February 2025?
null
1,737,998,371,042
1,740,783,540,000
1,740,819,505,318
NO
0.01
5,025.265238
SZslRAZOIu
nvidia-nvda-stock-price-above-140-b
NVIDIA (NVDA) stock price above $140 by February 10, 2025
null
1,737,993,689,857
1,739,145,600,000
1,740,075,234,280
NO
0.06456
14,024.414838
lE2c9y8q6l
war-in-ukraine-ends-by-may-9-2025
War in Ukraine ends by May 9, 2025?
null
1,737,993,433,138
1,746,849,540,000
1,746,869,114,492
NO
0.008013
3,656.275835
8NAANS99C2
will-the-sp-500-spx-finish-on-a-pri
Will the S&P 500 ($SPX) finish on a prime number at the end of this week (excluding decimal place, no rounding)
null
1,737,990,542,530
1,738,360,800,000
1,738,363,408,410
NO
0.15
235.400711
qLP0EQLl80
trump-imposes-new-tariffs-on-canada
Trump imposes new tariffs on Canada by EOD February 1st, 2025
null
1,737,988,819,853
1,738,449,400,656
1,738,449,400,656
YES
0.930942
58,465.08361
A2RP9nCLpz
will-the-sp-500-spx-finish-over-610
Will the S&P 500 ($SPX) Finish over $6100 at the end of today's trading day?
null
1,737,988,263,075
1,738,011,627,169
1,738,011,627,169
NO
0.01
914.987437
LESsgut8UU
will-british-airways-announce-effec
Will British Airways announce effectively lower thresholds for achieving status?
null
1,737,986,801,008
1,738,755,134,017
1,738,755,134,017
YES
0.84
129.128785
59uZNlNd02
will-i-double-my-net-worth-by-april
Will I double my net worth by April 1st, 2025?
null
1,737,986,639,970
1,743,566,340,000
1,743,711,790,975
NO
0.010224
1,026.355604
52P6szA5tc
will-any-player-or-coach-cry-during
Will any player or coach cry during National Anthem at the Superbowl?
null
1,737,984,913,308
1,739,228,340,000
1,739,658,787,018
YES
0.99
9,014.401609
s6sQ62d5PZ
holy-shit-my-reaction-to-deepseek-r
"Holy shit!" -> my reaction to deepseek r1. Will I feel the same about any AI developments in the next 5 months?
null
1,737,984,860,605
1,751,043,540,000
1,751,083,798,743
NO
0.014313
23,385.750554
2dpZ6ysnAI
ceasefire-agreement-between-drc-and
Ceasefire agreement between DRC and M23 Rebels signed before March 31, 2025
null
1,737,977,970,003
1,738,685,733,381
1,738,685,733,381
YES
0.956309
431.548759
ZzU0A6AyE6
test-E2n8L9u2l5
test
null
1,737,968,405,542
1,738,018,740,000
1,745,827,653,744
NO
0.479706
14
LzCl9PqOIU
will-i-reach-a-30-day-streak-on-nyt
Will I reach a 30 day streak on NYT connections in 2025?
null
1,737,960,724,329
1,739,236,481,607
1,739,236,481,607
YES
0.9
210.734597
PllAPlLg2L
will-elon-musk-be-out-of-trumps-adm
Will Elon Musk be out of Trump's administration before any of Trump's cabinet?
null
1,737,955,834,867
1,748,486,934,252
1,748,486,934,252
YES
0.412507
682.672481
296qyOzud8
will-trump-announce-new-sanctions-o
Will Trump announce new sanctions on any country this week?
null
1,737,955,467,571
1,738,419,428,889
1,738,419,428,889
YES
0.48
289.319527
UO2OQ09QlI
will-i-lift-weights-today-CQPhhQunUR
Will I lift weights today?
null
1,737,955,151,951
1,738,040,340,000
1,738,041,537,811
NO
0.700127
102.110435
Elun80zN8p
will-grok-3-beat-deepseek-r1-on-the
Will Grok 3 beat DeepSeek R1 on the chatbot leaderboard?
null
1,737,948,023,369
1,741,840,925,946
1,741,840,925,946
YES
0.985655
36,688.526987
CAgULR5ASz
will-grok-3-beat-deepseek-3-on-the
Will Grok 3 beat DeepSeek 3 on the chatbot leaderboard?
null
1,737,946,138,484
1,742,482,668,928
1,742,482,668,928
YES
0.98952
1,853.73163
UC9pu9cAhp
will-the-philadelphia-eagles-swoop-IAPZqhzypP
Super Bowl LIX: Will the Philadelphia Eagles win?
null
1,737,943,197,845
1,739,157,678,861
1,739,157,678,861
YES
0.995645
713,956.211245
StUqlPzduO
will-the-next-78th-episode-of-skibi
Will the next (78th) episode of Skibidi Toilet be released by the end of February 2025?
null
1,737,939,032,370
1,740,783,540,000
1,740,819,491,751
NO
0.102554
265.876407
sy689hzRqQ
us-imposes-new-economic-sanctions-o
U.S. imposes new tariffs, sanctions, or visa restrictions on Colombia before February 1st, 2025
null
1,737,936,680,849
1,737,957,514,781
1,737,957,514,781
YES
0.419019
1,200
06LntQdc52
will-neymar-jr-be-announced-by-sant
Will Neymar Jr. be announced by Santos FC by Wednesday?
null
1,737,933,921,151
1,738,267,858,564
1,738,267,858,564
NO
0.030578
11,418.856643
llZdRNQ5gz
will-openais-o3-mini-support-image
Will Openai's O3 mini Support Image uploads?
null
1,737,929,818,394
1,738,365,059,275
1,738,365,059,275
NO
0.014801
3,518.078489
ltUuszC2S0
will-jannik-sinner-win-all-four-gra
Will Jannik Sinner win all four Grand Slams in 2025?
null
1,737,929,498,494
1,749,425,561,354
1,749,425,561,354
NO
0.01
8,057.112757
NPSyN0gEpg
openai-announces-a-successor-to-o3
OpenAI announces a successor to o3 before June 30, 2025
null
1,737,917,521,669
1,743,791,103,026
1,743,791,103,026
YES
0.91642
700.574793
O05yQgphzy
will-togashi-yoshihiro-tweet-again-IAquCsAR5S
Will Togashi Yoshihiro tweet again before the end of January 2025?
null
1,737,913,999,666
1,738,403,312,609
1,738,403,312,609
NO
0.36
216.396139
56PEP2zpZS
will-the-buffalo-bills-win-the-afc-dEZNP9I0qc
Will the Buffalo Bills win the AFC championship
null
1,737,910,627,269
1,737,957,540,000
1,737,988,034,566
NO
0.015483
2,779.433002
tplLgqPdI2
will-the-washington-commanders-win-22OURqChEh
Will the Washington commanders win the NFC championship
null
1,737,910,518,063
1,737,940,984,484
1,737,940,984,484
NO
0.01
1,105.281616
u09Qdp0QSq
will-openai-confirm-that-access-to
Will OpenAI confirm that access to FrontierMath was not used to guide the development of o3 release version?
null
1,737,909,337,581
1,738,645,803,706
1,738,645,803,706
YES
0.95
459.317781
LhgZ9ZqU0E
will-there-be-any-break-between-kag-yh25SpQ5ER
Will there be any break between Kagurabachi chapters 66 and 67?
null
1,737,904,849,227
1,738,510,482,757
1,738,510,487,945
NO
0.210023
1,260.574
tdqtntsLqO
will-there-be-any-break-between-one-8INN68q6lz
Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1138 and 1139?
null
1,737,904,780,722
1,738,509,474,520
1,738,509,477,447
NO
0.202491
12,796.297178
9Cz6AE2IzR
will-i-make-usaco-camp-in-2025
Will I make USACO camp in 2025
null
1,737,902,537,587
1,745,836,369,074
1,745,836,369,074
YES
0.842861
4,681.875704
yty68Oup8c
will-the-us-government-ask-china-to
Will the US ask China to pay for COVID before the 2026 midterms?
null
1,737,896,996,580
1,742,101,686,424
1,742,101,686,424
YES
0.99
1,548.524373
lLlh9cAu68
will-i-lift-weights-today-gOEplltUZc
Will I lift weights today?
null
1,737,872,656,211
1,737,953,940,000
1,737,955,140,537
NO
0.647806
86.377645
SOCnUR8pA8
pepfar-funding-unfrozen-by-february
PEPFAR funding unfrozen by February 15, 2025
null
1,737,851,538,506
1,739,664,000,000
1,740,863,397,555
NO
0.137965
34,949.996676
2Ct9zpERIg
will-musks-cozying-up-to-far-the-ri
Will Musk's cozying up to far the right hurt Tesla sales?
null
1,737,849,238,515
1,745,488,533,048
1,745,488,560,445
YES
0.98998
2,359.679794
nI5lNt98uS
this-market-has-an-85-percent-chanc
This Market has an 85 percent chance of a positive resolution at 4et today. (random # generator)
null
1,737,835,244,704
1,737,839,056,965
1,737,839,056,965
NO
0.821228
4,089.89937
8zuCCUSUUg
civil-lawsuit-filed-against-trump-m
Civil lawsuit filed against $TRUMP memecoin by May 31st, 2025
null
1,737,830,207,572
1,748,646,000,000
1,749,987,581,653
NO
0.06
665.223204
tP6UChIqpP
will-nikola-jokic-score-25-or-more
Will Nikola Jokic Score 25 or More Points Today Versus the Timberwolves?
null
1,737,819,877,290
1,737,949,386,264
1,737,949,386,264
NO
0.01
951.11955
qP5UhpSscC
will-bychkov-go-to-the-gym-tomorrow
Will Bychkov go to the gym tomorrow
null
1,737,806,089,958
1,737,925,140,000
1,739,679,249,291
NO
0.206543
96
ZS9tyZsLIQ
will-openais-operator-be-available
Will OpenAI's Operator be available in the EU by the end of 2025?
null
1,737,805,803,309
1,748,966,507,121
1,748,966,507,121
YES
0.981602
6,496.054643
89qQstLIIh
will-openais-sora-be-available-in-t
Will OpenAI's Sora be available in the EU by the end of 2025?
null
1,737,805,758,298
1,748,966,536,395
1,748,966,536,395
YES
0.99
9,250.985781
gZyLg0unhg
2025-february-hottest-on-record
2025 February hottest on record?
null
1,737,793,658,195
1,743,392,538,165
1,743,392,538,165
NO
0.01
1,143.59517
0UlulyZgC0
2025-january-hottest-on-record-reso
2025 January hottest on record? (Resolves from GISTemp data)
null
1,737,793,430,758
1,740,350,523,305
1,740,350,523,305
YES
0.990493
1,098.624636
Qzsdl0nhZO
will-trump-sign-a-bill-into-law-in
Will Trump sign a bill into law in his first week?
null
1,737,792,959,047
1,738,080,907,117
1,738,080,907,117
NO
0.01
975.800337
0On5cc6Rd8
will-i-lift-weights-today-nEyppSuptz
Will I lift weights today?
null
1,737,789,709,180
1,737,867,540,000
1,737,872,634,325
NO
0.430571
15
nquCCn6qRh
daily-coinflip-NPhZhtnQdR
Daily coinflip
null
1,737,787,451,525
1,737,953,940,000
1,738,047,000,645
YES
0.5
2,938.521101
gc2uq5AypO
will-donald-trump-publicly-express
Will Donald Trump publicly express interest in serving a third term as president in his first quarter?
null
1,737,774,851,339
1,743,357,801,976
1,743,357,801,976
YES
0.977368
861
ldPUOQlQUz
will-trump-be-nominated-for-the-nob
Will Trump be Nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
null
1,737,768,045,727
1,738,766,433,362
1,738,766,433,362
YES
0.97
25,598.783776
OgPy6Ay0Zg
will-manifold-hire-me-by-the-end-of-RQOcqhZnud
Will Manifold hire me by the end of March?
null
1,737,765,591,856
1,743,577,140,000
1,743,616,923,423
NO
0.039181
4,297.051967
AuPd598ngI
average-domestic-usa-flight-fare-38
Average domestic USA flight fare >=$385, Q4 2024
null
1,737,763,532,080
1,745,380,740,000
1,745,854,322,353
YES
0.99
915.608483
dpPNU20IcQ
will-amazon-amzn-close-higher-on-ja-2tP20tAC6p
Will Amazon (AMZN) close higher on January 31st than it did on January 24th
null
1,737,759,542,349
1,738,360,204,773
1,738,360,204,773
YES
0.86
2,460.574265
gsIl5Ad9cs
will-reputation-taylors-version-be-u0yhL9EZlC
Will reputation (Taylor's Version) be officially announced in January 2025?
null
1,737,754,220,427
1,738,396,740,000
1,738,397,478,643
NO
0.111686
197.977202
pSlPd9zQuU
sp-500-closes-higher-on-friday-janu-28E5su02hy
S&P 500 Closes Higher On Friday January 31st 2025 Than It Closed On Friday January 24th 2025? (SP500F-#5)
null
1,737,753,414,813
1,738,357,200,000
1,738,371,332,493
NO
0.014703
11,281.086842
nlCZgsuyAs
will-i-track-my-mood-every-day-for
Will I track my mood every day for 7 days?
null
1,737,750,064,830
1,738,346,605,141
1,738,346,605,141
YES
0.9
200
CqEgy2Z8Qz
will-fox-news-report-about-the-isra
Will fox news report about an Israeli sniper killing a young Palestinian child despite ceasefire?
null
1,737,745,433,795
1,740,373,140,000
1,740,845,224,084
NO
0.010016
1,013.322346