Datasets:
CK0607
/
closed-manifold

Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
Community
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9
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slug
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4
54
question
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6.93M
cQnPl95tcs
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-QqNg20IE6c
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Jan 27 than it closed on Jan 24?
null
1,737,745,357,927
1,738,011,744,599
1,738,011,744,599
NO
0.01
945.224967
sSnQALghpc
will-the-world-population-be-over-8
Will the world population be over 8 billion by the end of the month?
null
1,737,742,094,107
1,738,472,340,000
1,738,512,316,670
YES
0.99
1,096.816139
2CgQsUudg6
will-the-yunaplan-for-liquidity-wor
Will the Yunaplan for liquidity work?
null
1,737,735,218,436
1,739,816,224,991
1,741,150,229,471
NO
0.154168
2,508.864217
uQCZ2EEuZt
bitcoin-above-105k-on-feb-7
Bitcoin above $105K on Feb 7?
null
1,737,713,789,038
1,739,001,540,000
1,739,036,457,082
NO
0.009164
41,004.795686
EtS2QhEpc8
will-haruhikage-be-played-again-in
Will Haruhikage be performed again in Ave Mujica?
null
1,737,703,968,828
1,739,467,485,283
1,739,467,485,283
YES
0.841294
140
chud295hNl
will-i-lift-weights-today-PPyNsCcI9O
Will I lift weights today?
null
1,737,700,418,216
1,737,781,140,000
1,737,789,657,915
YES
0.588063
72
0tcRP86hNy
will-soaffine-be-active-on-manifold
Will @Soaffine be active on manifold again, before April?
null
1,737,689,292,367
1,743,448,698,824
1,743,448,698,824
NO
0.019648
1,711.277029
5hOC0hhNll
will-there-be-a-new-schism-in-the-r
Will there be a new schism in the Roman Catholic Church during the Papacy of Francis?
null
1,737,684,216,623
1,745,225,210,892
1,745,225,210,892
NO
0.015355
1,485.300746
NgUttc52US
will-i-return-to-twitter-for-at-lea
Will I return to Twitter for at least three consecutive days in 2025?
null
1,737,681,147,878
1,749,054,608,477
1,749,054,608,477
YES
0.505586
954.371535
Rp5NIulCsQ
will-manifold-ban-stardust-by-end-o
Will Manifold ban @stardust by end of month?
null
1,737,679,766,108
1,737,996,620,191
1,737,996,620,191
YES
0.99
85,206.523479
yEtlR00NhE
do-creator-pings-work
Do @creator pings work?
null
1,737,660,159,445
1,737,660,625,814
1,737,660,651,099
NO
0.1
200
PcqzQ552hU
will-this-question-get-50-traders
Will this question get 50 traders?
null
1,737,657,888,687
1,738,299,540,000
1,738,323,626,788
YES
0.996277
3,154.666312
U9gpzOzdhn
will-grok-3-release-before-the-firs
Will Grok 3 release before the first Trump tariff?
null
1,737,657,405,118
1,737,922,824,999
1,737,922,824,999
NO
0.016052
1,413.989365
sz2dylpttS
will-i-study-at-least-30-minutes-ev
Will I study at least 30 minutes every day until the end of January?
null
1,737,655,164,253
1,738,356,932,389
1,738,356,932,389
YES
0.949869
583
O8SzS6csCL
will-sumimi-disband-by-the-end-of-t
Will sumimi disband by the end of Ave Mujica
null
1,737,653,725,949
1,743,094,423,949
1,743,094,423,949
NO
0.286748
302
yOuUsuAORt
will-trump-be-removed-no-longer-pre
Will Trump be removed (no longer president following an impeachment) before March?
null
1,737,649,337,510
1,740,805,140,000
1,740,810,561,651
NO
0.01
1,690.341269
CsUzQIZhhR
will-trump-be-impeached-before-marc
Will Trump be Impeached before March?
null
1,737,649,279,189
1,740,805,140,000
1,740,810,567,907
NO
0.01
11,997.398444
OhLgOCd8uR
will-o3s-score-on-the-last-exam-be
Will o3's score on the Last Exam be above 30%?
null
1,737,643,626,943
1,739,389,704,123
1,741,131,349,035
NO
0.218757
4,384.135565
L8h20N82RS
will-amazon-amzn-close-higher-on-ja
Will Amazon (AMZN) close higher on January 24th than it did on January 17th
null
1,737,638,332,853
1,737,759,206,950
1,737,759,206,950
YES
0.99
8,949.874371
h2qpzNqZtE
who-will-scotus-favor-in-free-speec
Who will SCOTUS favor in Free Speech Coalition Inc. v Paxton?
null
1,737,622,508,521
1,750,607,940,000
1,751,048,322,836
NO
0.217728
306.996896
ddC0C9QIEI
daily-coinflip-Z0l86nACyA
Daily coinflip
null
1,737,618,317,146
1,737,781,140,000
1,737,787,429,617
YES
0.5
8,283.509489
hlNLACthgl
will-elon-musk-do-the-roman-salute
Will Elon Musk do the Seig Heil / Nazi / Roman Salute at another public event before the end of June 2025?
null
1,737,617,865,052
1,751,328,044,016
1,751,328,044,016
NO
0.015378
39,583.956723
cUQZ9Lhg62
will-i-lift-weights-today-PZO5uUSUh2
Will I lift weights today?
null
1,737,611,962,088
1,737,694,740,000
1,737,700,406,286
NO
0.454249
72
08CyERCsu9
will-my-gf-be-able-to-attend-her-co
Will the HHS travel restriction be lifted in time for my gf be able to attend her conference in April?
null
1,737,599,120,774
1,745,553,540,000
1,745,554,463,654
YES
0.941176
729.477568
nOnSuNUA28
will-pierre-poilievre-be-invited-to
Will Pierre Poilievre be invited to Mar-a-Lago (or the White House) before the 2025 canadian PM election?
null
1,737,594,684,248
1,745,942,630,693
1,745,942,630,693
NO
0.01
1,089.811982
pzN2Z6LcdQ
will-r1s-elo-score-on-the-lmsys-are
Will R1's Elo score on the LMSYS arena leaderboard be above 1350, in the week where it appears?
null
1,737,586,343,348
1,737,728,265,814
1,737,728,265,814
YES
0.968761
8,322
EuEPuUZCAE
will-trumps-syphilitic-dementia-no
Will "Trump's syphilitic dementia no longer be obscured" by the end of March 2025?
null
1,737,586,233,778
1,743,458,340,000
1,743,459,988,862
NO
0.01
1,241.654104
INNdg6nsh2
will-semaglutide-be-taken-off-fdas
Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?
null
1,737,584,909,252
1,741,054,967,442
1,741,054,967,442
YES
0.969728
134,115.875583
R8L0Rdlu5I
will-i-get-food-poisoning-following
Will I get food poisoning following the drinking of soylent that's been in my bag for 5 hours
null
1,737,579,870,062
1,737,867,540,000
1,737,867,812,375
NO
0.01
12,667.748749
Ednh0tEpR9
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-Z6LuPyZSIy
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Jan 23 than it closed on Jan 22?
null
1,737,578,609,394
1,737,666,131,173
1,737,666,131,173
YES
0.933072
293
UhnlC6y5hU
will-the-us-government-release-addi
Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?
null
1,737,578,181,628
1,741,046,900,127
1,741,046,900,127
YES
0.984792
88,514.086168
pNQ5ULdnNU
will-trump-release-more-jfk-files-t
Will Trump release more JFK files this year?
null
1,737,577,647,063
1,742,413,476,854
1,742,413,476,854
YES
0.989909
14,307.253473
dO9NA9Eq6g
will-elon-musk-cease-to-be-an-advis
Will Elon Musk cease to be an advisor to Donald Trump and face public criticism from Donald Trump before 2026?
null
1,737,574,234,679
1,749,225,578,506
1,749,225,578,506
YES
0.99
299,257.777428
IQqUZhuQSc
short-fuse-will-the-ten-current-fav
[SHORT FUSE] Will the ten current favorites be tomorrow's exact Best Picture lineup? (2025 Oscars)
null
1,737,573,706,362
1,737,629,940,000
1,737,643,352,175
NO
0.317166
1,211.962778
dtuS82zIOO
will-google-maps-still-say-gulf-of
Will Google Maps still say Gulf of Mexico at the end of February?
null
1,737,572,754,255
1,740,805,140,000
1,741,316,606,328
NO
0.009931
88,820.264727
ntng86RuS5
will-republicans-rush-hegseths-nomi
Will Republicans "rush Hegseth's nomination through in the next week and not allow any debate"?
null
1,737,569,372,286
1,741,383,337,837
1,741,383,337,837
NO
0.106405
621.036235
2RqyAp8PyQ
will-deepseeks-r1-top-the-chatbot-a
Will DeepSeek's R1 top the Chatbot Arena leaderboard?
null
1,737,567,613,941
1,737,726,682,977
1,737,726,682,977
NO
0.000055
119,560.758527
EudUIl6RIg
will-an-election-be-called-in-ontar
Will an election be called in Ontario on or before February 6.
null
1,737,564,348,720
1,737,737,931,337
1,737,737,931,337
YES
0.986472
766.294294
tUuQ6UO66t
will-we-find-out-who-trump-sold-the
Will we find out who Trump sold the country out to by the end of next month?
null
1,737,555,657,468
1,740,783,540,000
1,741,458,262,453
NO
0.030374
475
URPC8RClcU
will-the-vienna-hypersphere-have-pu
Will the Vienna Hypersphere have published a post on Substack or LW before March?
null
1,737,550,864,995
1,741,381,338,118
1,741,381,338,118
NO
0.137931
1,500
zhyn8tR5Rl
will-i-have-regained-my-voice-by-sa
Will I have regained my voice by Saturday?
null
1,737,550,121,313
1,737,845,940,000
1,737,846,280,406
NO
0.436525
1,986.614129
IcuzycpnQ5
will-putricias-perfume-party-start
Will Putricia's perfume party start before Monday?
null
1,737,544,150,600
1,737,983,900,138
1,737,983,900,138
YES
0.662162
40
IURsdUl8y0
will-ben-gvir-return-to-his-positio
Will Ben Gvir return to his position as minister of National security before new elections are called?
null
1,737,534,125,138
1,742,418,680,417
1,742,418,680,417
YES
0.925043
2,758.584751
nOQ25L6EL8
will-the-average-price-of-gasoline
Will the average price of gasoline as of January 20th, 2025 increase by 25% or more by May 20th, 2025?
null
1,737,529,028,582
1,747,799,940,000
1,747,800,092,149
NO
0.011191
1,956.746886
zh6CCnt0LA
will-the-combined-total-points-of-t
Will the total points scored on Championship Sunday exceed 95.5?
null
1,737,523,901,939
1,737,945,743,877
1,737,945,743,877
YES
0.99
10,036.555465
qsQUqIuqll
will-i-lift-weights-today-IyR6g2sQcU
Will I lift weights today?
null
1,737,523,527,500
1,737,608,340,000
1,737,611,951,041
YES
0.344483
166
sIO2ZUQq5C
will-there-be-at-least-1000-deaths
Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?
null
1,737,522,114,469
1,751,679,951,167
1,751,679,951,167
YES
0.99
31,641.579752
nSOE82Alyz
will-any-rationalist-effective-altr
Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?
null
1,737,518,796,792
1,747,063,174,372
1,747,063,174,372
YES
0.99
154,605.440203
gEQygUsypE
will-tiktok-be-on-the-app-store-by
Will TikTok be on the App Store by Friday?
null
1,737,505,885,970
1,737,716,340,000
1,737,825,161,156
NO
0.01
12,759.954307
80ZIEz0IlL
trump-cryptocurrency-executive-orde
Trump cryptocurrency executive order in first week?
null
1,737,505,763,272
1,737,726,852,750
1,737,726,852,750
YES
0.990713
11,321.627142
CdISNEZZ2A
nato-member-country-directly-engage
NATO member country directly engages in combat with Russian forces before April 1st 2025
null
1,737,502,541,671
1,743,379,200,000
1,743,382,723,606
NO
0.01
5,993.684515
595slz5quP
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-OOuN9pPI59
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Jan 22 than it closed on Jan 21?
null
1,737,492,694,994
1,737,579,818,363
1,737,579,818,363
YES
0.99
916.173381
0NAQyAO9sd
will-a-senator-switch-party-affilia
[💣] Will a senator switch party affiliation before 1/28?
null
1,737,492,638,544
1,738,040,399,999
1,738,041,847,287
NO
0.01
14,553.270479
R65OLzg5R8
will-elon-musk-be-doge-administrato
Will Elon Musk be DOGE administrator?
null
1,737,488,303,843
1,751,390,948,624
1,751,402,518,836
NO
0.075895
3,683.816239
L608Eh2sAs
will-matthew-brennan-win-a-uci-worl
Will Matthew Brennan win a UCI WorldTour race or stage during 2025?
null
1,737,487,420,982
1,742,917,847,950
1,742,917,847,950
YES
0.99
955.743451
5ECNpyPZdE
would-saffronolive-win-his-bet-that
Would SaffronOlive win his bet that the new Lotus is Black Lotus with start your engines?
null
1,737,485,714,852
1,738,103,055,499
1,738,103,055,499
NO
0.010596
1,505.606522
IP6ZlZ8C08
will-this-question-get-100-traders-ddCNO6QggR
Will this question get 100 traders in 1 month?
null
1,737,485,615,050
1,739,879,952,362
1,739,879,952,362
YES
0.9901
10,459.375951
0nPZ6gCgI6
will-the-heated-outcry-from-the-la
Will the heated outcry from the LA fires kindle a burning decision by Mayor Karen Bass to resign in the Next Month?
null
1,737,484,281,846
1,740,113,940,000
1,740,500,841,343
NO
0.01
17,700.634371
RquPdCgLyh
will-cnn-foxnews-nytimes-bloombergo
Will cnn, foxnews, bloomberg,or nypost report Israeli sniper killed a young palestinian child despite ceasefire?
null
1,737,483,372,366
1,737,745,078,757
1,737,745,078,757
YES
0.442049
223.312606
sCZpPPhsPR
will-giuliani-announce-he-is-runnin
Will Giuliani announce he is running for NYC mayor by the end of January?
null
1,737,480,122,195
1,738,472,340,000
1,738,472,566,326
NO
0.01
894.987437
PPAQZl2NEd
will-dog-man-beat-dogman-on-rotten
Will Dog Man beat DogMan on Rotten Tomatoes Popcornmeter?
null
1,737,480,029,425
1,738,731,540,000
1,739,412,229,943
YES
0.797244
133.213841
I2Ln5sANR9
will-the-eagles-win-the-nfc-confere
Will the Eagles win the NFC conference title this season? (2024-2025)
null
1,737,478,903,437
1,737,964,740,000
1,737,966,927,388
YES
0.99
1,301.971418
IQlsL92h5U
will-the-knicks-win-against-tonight
Will the Knicks win tonight's contest against the Nets? (1/21/25)
null
1,737,478,356,060
1,737,524,440,682
1,737,524,440,682
YES
0.99
946.313968
PLpQlhCu8q
will-mikal-bridges-score-over-25-po
Will Mikal Bridges score over 25 points in tonight's contest against the Nets? (1/21/25)
null
1,737,478,175,673
1,737,524,467,217
1,737,524,467,217
NO
0.547511
10
LycqcyhdZu
will-the-fda-approve-suzetrigine-vx
Will the FDA approve Suzetrigine (VX-548) in Q1 2025?
null
1,737,471,741,461
1,738,286,581,709
1,738,286,581,709
YES
0.510943
130
lZtOuhZ2An
will-the-sp-500-tstockindex-close-h
Will the S&P 500 tstockindex close higher on Jan 21 than it closed on Jan 17?
null
1,737,465,162,399
1,737,562,339,632
1,737,562,339,632
YES
0.98
600
sZUsuzgqhE
federal-judge-issues-nationwide-inj
Federal judge issues nationwide injunction against Trump's birthright citizenship order by March 2025
null
1,737,458,849,412
1,737,657,363,750
1,737,657,363,750
YES
0.989673
1,012.942962
ZhlShLRLIh
daily-coinflip-NsNc62tNSR
Daily coinflip
null
1,737,450,582,624
1,737,608,340,000
1,737,618,297,906
NO
0.51
9,809.983611
gdRPy0ZEUR
major-cyberattack-disrupts-us-criti
Major cyberattack disrupts U.S. critical infrastructure by April 30, 2025
null
1,737,445,995,808
1,745,971,200,000
1,746,393,119,197
NO
0.01
914.849822
E2pNZc8Q0u
will-bw-sewer-have-a-sub50-winrate
Will BW Sewer have a sub-50% winrate at RC Portland?
null
1,737,437,044,131
1,739,260,740,000
1,739,423,185,265
NO
0.474035
822.690883
z8l9ZA0INE
will-trump-impose-any-sort-of-tarif-gySLNnA8Rq
Will Trump impose any sort of Tariff on Mexico by the end of February?
null
1,737,436,971,005
1,740,709,920,000
1,741,185,790,416
NO
0.01
15,587.989948
p9g8CdAES8
will-trump-impose-any-sort-of-tarif
Will Trump impose any sort of Tariff on Canada by the end of February?
null
1,737,436,953,871
1,740,709,920,000
1,741,307,471,032
NO
0.01426
7,332.969226
s8A62ggnRy
will-i-lift-weights-today-ussO8lnlu2
Will I lift weights today?
null
1,737,435,789,437
1,737,521,940,000
1,737,523,514,829
NO
0.742931
70
zSguz8OhZd
will-fox-news-report-hamas-recruite
Will fox news report "Hamas recruited almost as many new militants as it has lost" (Blinken)?
null
1,737,428,345,694
1,740,034,740,000
1,740,077,862,559
NO
0.01
904.749342
In9dOtI0pI
will-the-ftcs-click-to-cancel-rule
Will the FTC's "click to cancel" rule take effect?
null
1,737,424,210,646
1,747,367,940,000
1,747,422,199,877
NO
0.039868
6,951.303577
dc50PgEl0g
bitcoin-above-100k-on-jan-31
Bitcoin above $100K on Jan 31?
null
1,737,419,653,301
1,738,314,379,038
1,738,314,379,038
YES
0.99
20,294.322018
P2Uy69OddN
will-google-maps-display-gulf-of-am
Will Google Maps display "Gulf of America" in place of "Gulf of Mexico" before 2026?
null
1,737,416,595,981
1,739,234,556,184
1,739,234,556,184
YES
0.99
746,504.226786
sZ66plAths
will-every-question-from-acx-2025-b
Will every Question from ACX 2025 be a market on Manifold before February?
null
1,737,416,081,831
1,737,917,428,784
1,737,917,428,784
YES
0.969616
685
st85qO9yl0
will-there-be-any-throuple-in-sever
Will there be any “throuple” in Severance season 2?
null
1,737,413,442,929
1,742,822,709,589
1,742,822,709,589
YES
0.979025
740.320671
gOLIRzg6l0
eric-adams-no-longer-identifies-as
Eric Adams no longer identifies as a Democrat by December 31, 2025
null
1,737,407,961,238
1,744,421,376,236
1,744,421,393,176
YES
0.99
18,408.986298
UdNLqnqQcE
will-bitcoin-surpass-110000-by-the
Will bitcoin surpass $110,000 by the end of February 2025?
null
1,737,398,177,974
1,740,880,714,685
1,740,880,714,685
NO
0.007251
2,367.235611
I2UpC6qZ9h
was-brad-garlinghouse-at-the-inaugu
Was Brad Garlinghouse at the inauguration?
null
1,737,398,034,646
1,737,491,046,354
1,737,491,046,354
NO
0.01
894.987437
lul998nQO8
will-this-question-get-100-traders
Will this question get 100 traders?
null
1,737,395,801,955
1,738,040,340,000
1,738,065,629,033
NO
0.01
2,198.254378
CtuCUQyO9h
will-deepseekr1-beat-o1-on-livebenc
Will Deepseek-R1 beat o1 on LiveBench?
null
1,737,394,152,589
1,737,402,886,489
1,737,402,886,489
NO
0.441379
125
OgntP8pSpd
will-o3-perform-as-well-on-the-fron
Will o3 perform as well on the FrontierMath holdout dataset as it does on the main set?
null
1,737,393,882,287
1,745,432,710,284
1,745,432,710,284
NO
0.060534
14,002.265918
N22PLsddUz
will-dylan-patel-be-a-guest-on-the
Will Dylan Patel be a guest on the Lex Fridman podcast before 2026?
null
1,737,392,659,500
1,738,545,428,350
1,738,545,428,350
YES
0.99
1,065.081355
0PR2QCQnUC
will-joe-biden-issue-blanket-run-fo
Will Joe Biden issue blanket pardons for his atomic family?
null
1,737,392,290,372
1,737,392,387,962
1,737,392,387,962
YES
0.99
894.987437
ES0RLLsPgg
will-i-win-the-open-weight-division
Will I win the open weight division of my jiu jitsu tournament?
null
1,737,391,381,929
1,739,099,109,497
1,739,099,109,497
NO
0.803768
1,436.139262
hNNpOy60zQ
will-i-lift-weights-today-5UcLEUPAhn
Will I lift weights today?
null
1,737,391,239,844
1,737,435,540,000
1,737,435,780,962
NO
0.518974
45
LUEqUSlSNN
can-i-win-this-season-platinum-leag
Can i win this season platinum League
null
1,737,390,727,663
1,738,450,740,000
1,738,522,293,251
NO
0.035531
4,608.76265
SuCSpPulqZ
is-vivek-ramaswamy-kicked-out-leavi
Is Vivek Ramaswamy kicked out / leaving DOGE? (Department of Government Efficiency) 🐶🏦🏛️🌇
null
1,737,386,001,871
1,737,422,959,365
1,737,422,959,365
YES
0.989429
2,843.11032
yll5qyzt96
will-jan-20th-designated-survivor-b
Will Jan 20th designated survivor become president by end of the month?
null
1,737,374,565,761
1,737,412,696,353
1,737,412,696,353
NO
0.014514
724
czSuNz9069
will-biden-do-anything-notable-in-h
Will Biden do anything notable in his partial last day in office?
null
1,737,352,318,309
1,737,385,262,439
1,737,385,262,439
YES
0.987902
8,290
SuQLl962E0
will-any-location-in-mississippi-re
Will any location in Mississippi report more than 6 inches of snowfall in a single day this week?
null
1,737,347,201,713
1,737,957,540,000
1,738,268,130,146
YES
0.389339
35
shusCqNdRt
will-the-buffalo-bills-trample-the-RzzQZRPQER
Will the Buffalo Bills trample the Kansas City Chiefs?
null
1,737,340,711,210
1,737,946,359,698
1,737,946,359,698
NO
0.01
22,589.886394
IA2hInLcPp
will-trump-acquire-greenland-before
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July?
null
1,737,339,246,355
1,751,320,740,000
1,751,560,724,799
NO
0.008685
22,034.632487
Uzp2S9AEsq
will-marvel-snap-be-back-online-in
Will Marvel Snap be back online in the US within the next week?
null
1,737,337,567,559
1,737,428,133,808
1,737,428,133,808
YES
0.874031
327.735027
s8ENOdU8cP
will-trump-sign-100-executive-order
Will Trump sign 100+ executive orders on Day One?
null
1,737,336,972,884
1,737,446,340,000
1,738,168,843,315
NO
0.001177
12,598.184847
lpOdRgdsgl
will-the-washington-commanders-conq
Will the Washington Commanders conquer the Philadelphia Eagles?
null
1,737,336,510,696
1,737,934,861,887
1,737,934,861,887
NO
0.01
15,740.340509
hq9utlgEUA
ncaaf-national-championship-will-oh
NCAAF National Championship 🏈 Will Ohio State win by double digits against Notre Dame?
null
1,737,328,663,084
1,737,432,703,082
1,737,432,703,082
YES
0.994392
42,861.088721