id stringlengths 9 20 | slug stringlengths 4 54 | question stringlengths 1 120 | firstGroup float64 | createdTime int64 1,715B 1,752B | closeTime int64 1,717B 1,752B | resolvedTime int64 1,736B 1,752B | resolution stringclasses 2 values | resolutionProbability float64 0 1 | volume float64 0 6.93M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8syen48a46 | will-dan-clancey-still-be-ceo-of-tw--cash | Will Dan Clancy still be CEO of Twitch at the end of 2024? | null | 1,729,695,622,566 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,761,690,413 | YES | 0.984979 | 1,699.007932 |
6l5iaiip5t | will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-3peat-a--cash | Will the Kansas City Chiefs 3-peat as NFL Champions? | null | 1,729,694,533,030 | 1,739,158,246,907 | 1,739,159,364,835 | NO | 0.020495 | 1,942.302277 |
j42p7u8bn3 | will-russia-control-the-entire-luha | Will Russia control the entire Luhansk region at the end of 2024? | null | 1,729,677,896,295 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,723,018,725 | NO | 0.12421 | 295 |
ib7ov5u3od | will-the-us-have-a-port-strike-in-j | Will the US have a port strike in January 2025? | null | 1,729,643,764,821 | 1,738,432,133,030 | 1,738,432,133,030 | NO | 0.012025 | 9,993.580906 |
gucruqxis0 | will-twitch-still-exist-or-be-owned | Will Twitch still exist or be owned by Amazon by the end of 2024? | null | 1,729,632,327,231 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,749,587,094,119 | YES | 0.979825 | 1,190.97946 |
2ktq82acu2 | will-nintendos-project-rockstock-la | Will Nintendo's Project Rockstock launch before the release of the Nintendo Switch 2? | null | 1,729,605,230,808 | 1,749,461,315,872 | 1,749,461,315,872 | NO | 0.01 | 907.340378 |
bsjjh9mgnd | will-elon-musk-or-representatives-p | Will Elon Musk or representatives publicly argue that their voter incentives are legal under U.S. sweepstakes laws? | null | 1,729,570,385,347 | 1,737,392,400,000 | 1,737,495,772,645 | NO | 0.665098 | 129.07633 |
8rx1o9cjxk | will-trump-go-to-prison-before-2025 | Will Trump go to prison before 2025? | null | 1,729,562,000,338 | 1,730,181,540,000 | 1,740,427,831,328 | NO | 0.021906 | 5,682 |
idxt50wzyd | will-at-least-3-apps-from-the-optim | Will at least 3 apps from the Optimism Superchain ecosystem pivot to Solana by 2025-01-01? | null | 1,729,556,236,361 | 1,735,765,140,000 | 1,735,832,820,638 | YES | 0.337838 | 900.000064 |
bl03g4pnxi | 300-trillion-digits-of-pi-calculate | 300 trillion digits of Pi calculated by the end of 2025? | null | 1,729,538,431,646 | 1,747,468,495,561 | 1,747,468,495,561 | YES | 0.938677 | 1,053.834589 |
inxbti5gia | will-india-expel-anymore-canadian-d | Will India expel anymore Canadian diplomats in 2024? | null | 1,729,525,156,898 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,736,180,480,689 | NO | 0.026819 | 602.000026 |
ovj6e0azlp | will-the-eu-offer-ukraine-an-entry | Will the EU offer Ukraine an entry into NATO by 2024? | null | 1,729,501,526,199 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,737,788,886,860 | NO | 0.06657 | 277 |
vle0rvj4mr | elon-musks-america-pac-will-the-pai | Elon Musk's America PAC: Will the paid incentives be ruled illegal? | null | 1,729,500,208,477 | 1,749,220,140,000 | 1,749,931,653,455 | NO | 0.018857 | 31,449.318089 |
q8je98f3ka | will-xqc-win-his-bet-with-dan | Will xQc win his bet with Dan Saltman? | null | 1,729,494,931,143 | 1,745,294,340,000 | 1,745,729,536,450 | YES | 0.99 | 7,632.833126 |
1o79og4lmo | will-dan-clancey-still-be-ceo-of-tw | Will Dan Clancy still be CEO of Twitch at the end of 2024? | null | 1,729,494,034,916 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,972,810,940 | YES | 0.990116 | 27,511.906213 |
aeltemfzgi | chinese-boots-on-taiwan-by-end-of-2 | Chinese boots on Taiwan by end of 2024? | null | 1,729,490,490,378 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,737,788,913,292 | NO | 0.023692 | 622 |
wcdh2t1nal | will-dan-clancey-ceo-of-twitch-be-c | Will Dan Clancey, CEO of Twitch, be called to testify to the US Federal Government before the end of June 2025? | null | 1,729,484,163,468 | 1,751,327,934,810 | 1,751,327,934,810 | NO | 0.01 | 1,087.350889 |
v064md9p29 | will-destiny-get-unbanned-from-twit-jmgfb5wy6e | Will Destiny get unbanned from Twitch by the end of 2024? | null | 1,729,482,361,847 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,736,404,565,687 | NO | 0.034398 | 1,334.189914 |
bf9e6kj2qn | will-bronny-james-score-double-digi | Will Bronny James score double digit points in his next game? | null | 1,729,477,538,748 | 1,730,087,940,000 | 1,738,306,033,954 | NO | 0.01 | 894.987437 |
yzqkwgddd6 | will-hurricane-oscar-cause-more-tha | Will Hurricane Oscar cause more than $100 million in damages to Cuba? | null | 1,729,460,348,821 | 1,733,029,140,000 | 1,741,807,291,768 | NO | 0.888485 | 220 |
9p4wtr0tyi | will-any-1-seed-lose-on-the-first-w-rp01yrpiwl | Will any #1 seed lose on the first weekend of March Madness 2025? | null | 1,729,456,480,212 | 1,742,788,740,000 | 1,742,852,900,411 | NO | 0.032761 | 4,602.556675 |
3ptw4o0hjv | will-i-construct-a-dl-trading-algor | Will i construct a dl trading algorithm | null | 1,729,456,061,216 | 1,732,057,140,000 | 1,742,455,593,760 | YES | 0.524376 | 5 |
iqliqhey5n | will-the-texas-longhorns-make-it-to | Will the Texas Longhorns make it to the CFP final? | null | 1,729,455,030,534 | 1,736,573,400,000 | 1,736,575,126,000 | NO | 0.01 | 2,646.066464 |
pct57l6lzx | will-biden-pardon-anyone-within-1-m | Will Biden pardon anyone with 1 month or less until he leaves office? | null | 1,729,448,938,607 | 1,737,435,540,000 | 1,737,436,250,707 | YES | 0.993618 | 2,429.083312 |
zi9n7s30gq | will-north-korean-troops-enter-sout-45wg60nxu1 | Will North Korean troops intentionally enter South Korea by the end of 2024? | null | 1,729,445,070,258 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,972,819,590 | NO | 0.01 | 1,375.10402 |
0rvfvm0twq | will-goodharts-law-in-reinforcement | Will "Goodhart's Law in Reinforcement Learning" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,729,442,459,796 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,373,800 | NO | 0.127181 | 100 |
u4kwasa4mz | will-the-nintendo-switch-2-be-relea | Will the Nintendo Switch 2 be released before March 2025? | null | 1,729,434,174,090 | 1,733,011,140,000 | 1,746,190,223,742 | NO | 0.035428 | 1,340.46977 |
y80e44uvgv | will-any-nfl-game-end-in-a-tie-this | Will any NFL game end in a tie this regular season (2024-25)? | null | 1,729,431,452,857 | 1,736,168,454,550 | 1,736,168,454,550 | NO | 0.00593 | 16,623.413376 |
kfj4p8x3jf | if-trump-wins-will-the-war-in-ukrai | If Trump wins, will the war in Ukraine end before Jan 20 2025? | null | 1,729,375,166,631 | 1,737,359,940,000 | 1,741,925,846,044 | NO | 0.01 | 1,563.210955 |
u2nnpukub6 | will-users-under-18-years-old-be-al-icwv5g4tbr | Will users under 18 years old be allowed to use the mana-only part of Manifold for the rest of 2024? | null | 1,729,319,995,637 | 1,735,660,740,000 | 1,737,867,346,792 | YES | 0.969958 | 5,325.786841 |
7e03nkxoc3 | will-giant-inscrutable-matrices-may | Will "Giant (In)scrutable Matrices: (Maybe) the Bes..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,729,304,582,699 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,306,062,980 | NO | 0.14 | 0 |
5lmhq0z44i | will-giant-inscrutable-matrices-may | Will "Giant (In)scrutable Matrices: (Maybe) the Bes..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,729,304,582,490 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,571,664 | NO | 0.191763 | 180 |
3vt23et611 | will-there-be-a-new-record-breaking-nmgxh8jvk8 | Will there be a new record breaking most expensive coin by the end of June 2025? | null | 1,729,297,268,448 | 1,751,327,461,403 | 1,751,327,461,403 | NO | 0.010565 | 1,201 |
0j8duoq3rq | will-the-solar-cell-world-efficienc--cash | Will the solar cell world efficiency record be beaten by the end of 2024? | null | 1,729,274,251,346 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,735,761,777,323 | NO | 0.023634 | 488.55 |
jhrkvufj08 | will-voter-turnout-in-the-2024-pres-dvw9ec5fvk--cash | Will voter turnout in the 2024 US Presidential Election exceed 65%? | null | 1,729,272,571,456 | 1,735,704,420,000 | 1,735,772,506,609 | NO | 0.014368 | 3,184.661972 |
wpvnhmtsjj | will-jimmy-carter-become-the-longes-tqkdjzmqpg | Will Jimmy Carter become the longest lived person who has ever gotten electoral votes (has to beat Strom Thurmond) | null | 1,729,269,433,644 | 1,735,886,652,300 | 1,735,886,652,300 | NO | 0.01004 | 1,024.644942 |
gfje9abnk5 | will-the-ferrari-296-vs-have-more-t | Will the Ferrari 296 VS have more than 900HP? | null | 1,729,228,412,761 | 1,748,982,589,610 | 1,748,982,589,610 | NO | 0.279374 | 185 |
ftr4kgchup | will-another-indian-assassination-a | Will another Indian assassination attempt be foiled (or succeed) in 2024? | null | 1,729,212,426,494 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,736,785,133,687 | NO | 0.054877 | 315 |
i0h9fvaa31 | will-aellas-friend-accidentally-get | Will Aella's friend accidentally get pregnant before the end of February? | null | 1,729,195,669,037 | 1,736,512,804,857 | 1,736,512,804,857 | YES | 0.99 | 2,858.323231 |
xdfq1ua0yl | will-my-friend-accidentally-get-pre | Will my friend accidentally get pregnant before the end of February? | null | 1,729,188,037,967 | 1,736,453,735,091 | 1,736,453,735,091 | YES | 0.916897 | 71,930.741732 |
jmrdhx4xvv | -will-there-be-a-lasting-formal-bil | 🛑⚔️ Will There Be A Lasting, Formal, Bi-laterally Signed Ceasefire In The 2023 Israel–Hamas War By End Of 2025? | null | 1,729,184,404,184 | 1,738,132,200,000 | 1,738,191,640,846 | YES | 0.982451 | 29,571.966622 |
njtorhuqic | will-the-sinwars-uccessor-to-hamas | Will Sinwar's successor to Hamas leadership be killed by Israel before July 2025? | null | 1,729,179,797,598 | 1,751,332,418,037 | 1,751,332,418,037 | NO | 0.034674 | 8,460.265696 |
xo38fzbl7e | will-pierre-poilievre-apply-for-a-s | Will Pierre Poilievre apply for a security clearance before the next Canadian election? | null | 1,729,120,154,026 | 1,745,887,775,159 | 1,745,887,775,159 | NO | 0.169606 | 5,155.30731 |
og4rgjloik | will-i-crash-my-skoda-fabia-in-2024 | Will I crash my Škoda Fabia in 2024 | null | 1,729,114,071,474 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,720,265,190 | NO | 0.171233 | 120 |
v7i2jiq5kl | will-wallace-and-gromit-vengeance-m | Will Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl get 80% or more on Rotten Tomatoes? | null | 1,729,104,493,981 | 1,736,582,340,000 | 1,736,582,539,485 | YES | 0.99 | 926.138686 |
0y3va199ij | will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025--cash | Will GPT-5 be released before 2025? | null | 1,729,095,193,660 | 1,735,603,140,000 | 1,735,761,849,056 | NO | 0.010725 | 27,666.274776 |
ud082miecj | will-the-national-guard-be-deployed--cash | Will the National Guard be deployed to assist law enforcement at the U.S. Capitol on January 6th, 2025? | null | 1,729,093,638,085 | 1,736,312,340,000 | 1,736,314,033,121 | NO | 0.01 | 1,653.622312 |
g00ezdtkzm | will-someone-beat-the-3x3x3-rubiks--cash | Will someone beat the 3x3x3 Rubiks Cube world record by the end of 2024? | null | 1,729,092,998,806 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,761,661,636 | NO | 0.013126 | 1,469.524327 |
nauua3afro | will-the-doomsday-clock-advance-tow-267cd4b639d9--cash | Will the Doomsday Clock advance toward midnight in/by January 2025? | null | 1,729,092,803,686 | 1,737,521,940,000 | 1,738,102,830,636 | YES | 0.736288 | 700.773295 |
lsdrmio2ks | will-a-sweepstakes-market-resolve-t--cash | Will a sweepstakes market resolve to a partial percentage in 2024? | null | 1,729,092,204,374 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,735,761,624,858 | NO | 0.019501 | 1,054.394676 |
6xk574zl12 | will-a-sweepstakes-market-resolve-t | Will a sweepstakes market resolve to a partial percentage in 2024? | null | 1,729,092,160,420 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,735,771,516,855 | NO | 0.01 | 11,627.243728 |
w3jwi1281v | will-elon-musk-appear-on-dwarkesh-p--cash | Will Elon Musk appear on Dwarkesh Podcast before 2025? | null | 1,729,089,906,089 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,761,614,361 | NO | 0.01187 | 1,114.694303 |
aet2gu63bm | will-a-totally-home-grown-llm-by-ch | Will a home grown LLM developed by Chinese company be competitive by end of 2025? | null | 1,729,031,146,694 | 1,736,204,802,433 | 1,736,204,802,433 | YES | 0.902257 | 18,992.153211 |
wpfswsm0z7 | will-donald-trump-provoke-another-d | Will Donald Trump provoke another deadly riot before January 21st 2025? | null | 1,729,017,091,689 | 1,737,532,740,000 | 1,737,564,975,454 | NO | 0.01 | 10,840.832946 |
bqm1vcm0gn | will-israel-defeat-hezbollah-and-fi | Will Israel defeat Hezbollah and fight against the Lebanon Armed Forces this year? | null | 1,729,006,757,220 | 1,739,932,862,508 | 1,739,932,869,135 | NO | 0.149829 | 150 |
rjmebgg50r | will-the-supreme-court-reverse-rich | Will the Supreme Court reverse Richard Glossip's conviction? | null | 1,728,991,212,521 | 1,740,500,586,520 | 1,740,500,586,520 | YES | 0.939925 | 3,157.378525 |
3uyv5qt9n3 | will-kirill-shevchenko-be-banned-fr | Will Kirill Shevchenko be banned from FIDE for six months or more by the end of 2025? | null | 1,728,934,864,058 | 1,746,982,063,593 | 1,746,982,063,593 | YES | 0.989131 | 8,888.086974 |
3gwhml6oop | will-shovel-knight-be-announced-as | Will Shovel Knight be announced as being included in Rivals of Aether 2 by the end of 2024? | null | 1,728,932,369,725 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,972,794,878 | NO | 0.085888 | 236 |
58yl0vm6mb | is-this-twitter-threat-purportedly | Is this Twitter threat purportedly from CBZ Management legit? | null | 1,728,931,512,726 | 1,735,793,940,000 | 1,735,795,557,406 | YES | 0.736199 | 7,179.450112 |
3hziol8clw | will-un-chief-antonio-guterres-be-b | Will UN chief Antonio Guterres be barred from entering Israel throughout the rest of 2024? | null | 1,728,925,352,299 | 1,735,775,940,000 | 1,735,790,385,954 | YES | 0.953922 | 355 |
5if0da7of1 | diddy-will-released-from-jail-by-20 | diddy will released from jail by 2025? | null | 1,728,904,568,708 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,738,762,827,850 | NO | 0.126848 | 278.145749 |
vjd6rcqkn4 | will-donald-trump-file-at-least-hal | Will Donald Trump file at least half as many lawsuits contesting the 2024 election as 2020? | null | 1,728,879,341,664 | 1,737,446,340,000 | 1,746,207,895,533 | NO | 0.01 | 1,202.914239 |
42a8zrusl1 | will-jimmy-carter-attend-jose-luis | Will Jimmy Carter attend Jose Luis Ricon's funeral? | null | 1,728,874,550,337 | 1,736,727,834,978 | 1,736,727,834,978 | NO | 0.014525 | 1,238.934794 |
k85pxgla0i | will-north-korea-send-troops-to-ukr | Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025? | null | 1,728,858,081,166 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,763,384,978 | NO | 0.032477 | 266,522.710781 |
spvmebfeu2 | will-my-first-dnd-campaign-survive | Will my first DnD campaign survive until 2025? | null | 1,728,833,638,423 | 1,735,943,367,032 | 1,735,943,367,032 | YES | 0.372036 | 370 |
vndpvaykfn | what-will-be-the-sex-of-our-next-ch | What will be the sex of our next child? (YES = Boy) | null | 1,728,833,549,674 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,742,673,740,747 | YES | 0.525249 | 309.030631 |
13khqvb63y | will-the-supreme-court-allow-the-gh | Will the Supreme Court allow the “ghost gun” regulations to stand? | null | 1,728,818,617,467 | 1,743,019,237,070 | 1,743,019,237,070 | YES | 0.945912 | 3,507 |
pn6fdmnioj | will-i-finish-reading-the-5th-6th-a | Will I finish reading the 5th, 6th and 7th Harry Potter books before the end of 2024? | null | 1,728,740,171,675 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,739,517,873 | YES | 0.475885 | 132 |
a8nhxtrplq | will-there-be-a-new-manifold-partne | Will there be a new Manifold partner in 2024? | null | 1,728,659,642,843 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,848,013,120 | NO | 0.025382 | 618.719466 |
sjn5grzx24 | will-there-be-a-new-deadlock-charac | Will there be a new Deadlock character released before the end of the year? | null | 1,728,628,964,306 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,972,803,483 | YES | 0.917471 | 262 |
7jo2f8ibbb | will-an-aigenerated-film-win-an-osc | Will an AI-generated film win an Oscar in 2025? | null | 1,728,609,992,617 | 1,741,197,629,334 | 1,741,197,629,334 | NO | 0.01 | 19,763.695035 |
0qoim8aj3u | will-entropybased-sampling-improve | Will entropy-based sampling improve Llama3.1 on reasoning benchmarks in 2024? | null | 1,728,582,021,640 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,752,168,696 | NO | 0.123162 | 29,722.904615 |
w9xd8wg20n | will-manifold-unsweepify-more-than | Will Manifold un-Sweepify more than 1 question in 2024? | null | 1,728,565,045,555 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,985,821,896 | NO | 0.01 | 1,520.528305 |
up7exduyj4 | will-credible-reporting-confirm-tha | Will credible reporting confirm that Hurricane Helene or Milton were caused by climate engineering? | null | 1,728,553,107,910 | 1,739,799,772,662 | 1,739,799,772,662 | NO | 0.01 | 911.981288 |
upmmp2f5ky | will-yoav-gallant-still-be-israeli | Will Yoav Gallant still be Israeli Minister of Defense on March 1 2025? | null | 1,728,549,786,216 | 1,740,784,624,389 | 1,740,784,624,389 | NO | 0.025852 | 855 |
q9yydsauol | will-bitcoin-be-100-000-in-1st-of-m | Will Bitcoin be 100 000$ in 1st of March 2025 | null | 1,728,549,439,061 | 1,740,866,340,000 | 1,741,034,901,067 | NO | 0.01 | 38,374.155041 |
964lwf8ye1 | will-wild-robot-win-the-oscar-for-b | Will Wild Robot win the Oscar for best animated feature this year? | null | 1,728,519,207,489 | 1,741,030,120,155 | 1,741,030,120,155 | NO | 0.01 | 1,049.953433 |
eu5xolxr1z | will-joker-folie-a-deux-receive-an | Will Joker: Folie à Deux receive an Oscar nomination? | null | 1,728,518,849,928 | 1,737,100,740,000 | 1,737,644,603,546 | NO | 0.102628 | 6,840.986938 |
yg2pd53isu | will-hamas-commit-and-take-credit-f | Will Hamas commit and take credit for at least one suicide bombing before Jan 1st, 2025? | null | 1,728,515,271,756 | 1,735,711,140,000 | 1,735,742,100,337 | NO | 0.087236 | 2,390.999971 |
jbrmhbfszr | will-the-us-government-announce-new | Will the US government announce new fines against SpaceX this year? | null | 1,728,510,916,238 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,820,905,027 | NO | 0.307692 | 50 |
nblq239he4 | will-hurricane-milton-cause-a-12-or--cash | Will Hurricane Milton cause a 12’ or higher storm surge anywhere along the Florida Coast? | null | 1,728,507,312,805 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,736,188,124,320 | NO | 0.019591 | 778.319875 |
sk5gqtzxfu | will-a-hurricane-that-strikes-the-u--cash | Will a hurricane that strikes the United States in 2024 cause over $150 billion worth of damage? | null | 1,728,506,084,694 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,736,192,810,801 | NO | 0.079939 | 2,292.956991 |
oamts2gb7t | will-discord-get-unbanned-in-russia--cash | Will Discord get unbanned in Russia before 2025? | null | 1,728,505,993,556 | 1,735,733,790,324 | 1,735,761,717,186 | NO | 0.013035 | 1,204.35766 |
0brbofhekn | will-austria-form-a-government-by-f | Will Austria form a government by February 2025? | null | 1,728,502,079,796 | 1,738,440,133,268 | 1,738,440,133,268 | NO | 0.01 | 8,392.685491 |
takl04xx3d | will-there-be-a-manifold-ad-in-time | Will there be a Manifold ad in Times Square by the end of 2024? | null | 1,728,494,957,714 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,972,826,436 | NO | 0.068701 | 966.729789 |
ydlufz74jh | will-israel-and-hamas-reach-a-cease | Will Israel and Hamas reach a ceasefire or treaty before the end of 2024? | null | 1,728,469,925,951 | 1,735,747,140,000 | 1,735,775,248,085 | NO | 0.067186 | 645.85682 |
sfr14mmt46 | will-the-blackhawks-have-a-better-s | Will the Blackhawks have a better season than the Flames and Habs? | null | 1,728,442,533,703 | 1,745,179,135,984 | 1,745,179,135,984 | NO | 0.137741 | 1,502 |
qfycloyud3 | will-shane-pinto-score-a-hat-trick | Will Shane Pinto score a hat trick during 2024-2025 NHL season | null | 1,728,441,886,087 | 1,745,010,618,420 | 1,745,010,618,420 | NO | 0.01 | 9,230.309154 |
fiis1vxkig | will-hurricane-milton-be-the-costli | Will Hurricane Milton be the costliest hurricane in recorded history? | null | 1,728,441,343,227 | 1,739,145,870,069 | 1,739,145,870,069 | NO | 0.010575 | 35,174.460852 |
4aa7qb8uki | will-waymo-or-cruise-pause-or-cance | Will Waymo or Cruise pause or cancel service in a metro area due to vandalism | null | 1,728,440,477,920 | 1,750,194,464,460 | 1,750,194,464,460 | YES | 0.742545 | 1,550 |
ju9lt8d7k1 | has-hurricane-helene-led-to-a-liter | Has Hurricane Helene led to “a literal dam of bodies”? | null | 1,728,437,346,613 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,745,532,201 | NO | 0.029896 | 8,259.124564 |
vzbwbrmz2c | will-hurricane-milton-cause-a-12-or | Will Hurricane Milton cause a 12’ or higher storm surge anywhere along the Florida Coast? | null | 1,728,432,571,724 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,749,708,078 | NO | 0.036486 | 1,591.219501 |
ckgc3vch43 | will-discord-get-unbanned-in-russia | Will Discord get unbanned in Russia before 2025? | null | 1,728,429,190,972 | 1,735,733,790,324 | 1,735,733,790,324 | NO | 0.016069 | 8,917.301974 |
e26aakw5my | will-the-ny-times-launch-their-zors | Will the NY Times launch their Zorse game in the US in 2024? | null | 1,728,424,365,725 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,842,906,409 | NO | 0.02218 | 1,028 |
gd0s92tpl8 | will-a-new-intro-to-quantum-physics | Will "A new intro to Quantum Physics, with the math..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,728,423,235,868 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,357,759 | NO | 0.16 | 22.232197 |
0wxdsbl7q9 | will-connor-bedard-score-50-goals-i | Will Connor Bedard score 50 goals in the 2024-2025 NHL season? | null | 1,728,422,923,749 | 1,745,010,651,801 | 1,745,010,651,801 | NO | 0.01042 | 8,745 |
63uz4ubar8 | will-the-freakonomics-radio-podcast | Will the Freakonomics Radio podcast mention Manifold by EOY 2024? | null | 1,728,408,580,257 | 1,735,780,855,611 | 1,735,780,855,611 | NO | 0.010008 | 1,101.858586 |
lmqy6duww4 | will-iran-have-or-get-the-russian-s | Will Iran have or get the Russian S-400 air defense missile system in 2024? | null | 1,728,362,774,240 | 1,735,692,869,410 | 1,735,692,869,410 | NO | 0.080743 | 652 |
xgtbig43dz | will-elon-musks-spacex-land-anythin | Will Elon Musk's SpaceX Land Anything Fully Functional According on Mars during 2025? | null | 1,728,356,678,654 | 1,748,788,140,000 | 1,749,371,083,021 | NO | 0.01 | 894.987437 |
u6hf3a36qs | will-i-qualify-for-usapho-2025 | Will I qualify for USAPhO 2025? | null | 1,728,356,347,160 | 1,742,426,546,757 | 1,742,426,552,134 | NO | 0.574215 | 1,912.193376 |
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