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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
t27xsk852d | will-sweepstakes-betting-be-availab-wbts9wdyzo | Will Sweepstakes betting be available in Canada by April 1st 2025? | null | 1,726,613,216,981 | 1,741,030,248,109 | 1,741,030,248,109 | NO | 0.01 | 2,824.377952 |
xb0c451j5e | will-sweepstakes-betting-be-availab | Will Sweepstakes betting be available in European Union by April 1st 2025? | null | 1,726,613,000,242 | 1,741,051,197,097 | 1,741,051,197,097 | NO | 0.01 | 17,789.943715 |
4c9mtjocso | will-a-manifold-user-leave-delaware | Will a Manifold user leave Delaware, Idaho, Michigan, Washington, or DC to be eligible for Sweepstakes? | null | 1,726,609,100,347 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,764,916,995 | NO | 0.272651 | 65 |
vzz3ugkh6c | will-manifold-allow-people-outside | Will Manifold allow people outside North America to trade in sweepstakes markets before EOY 2026? (read description) | null | 1,726,607,259,971 | 1,742,742,352,387 | 1,742,742,352,387 | NO | 0.01 | 19,756.086504 |
q356tmgbmg | metaculus-will-nicolas-maduro-be-in | [Metaculus] Will Nicolás Maduro be inaugurated for a new term in January 2025? | null | 1,726,605,404,175 | 1,737,584,164,605 | 1,737,584,164,605 | YES | 0.99 | 8,984.401307 |
rmsxvqrgb4 | will-donald-trump-be-the-republican-osvrf1kdjz | Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for the 2028 U.S. Presidential election if he loses the 2024 election? | null | 1,726,596,778,857 | 1,739,581,687,704 | 1,739,581,687,704 | NO | 0.01 | 10,510.805768 |
mh823rfex3 | will-manifold-leak-user-identity-ve | Will Manifold user identity verification info leak before 2025? | null | 1,726,595,848,953 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,719,056,545 | NO | 0.025487 | 9,904.654149 |
6lots97o8i | will-graphone-reach-5000-signups-by | Will graph.one reach 5,000 sign-ups by the end of the year? | null | 1,726,586,923,144 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,726,568,481 | NO | 0.036846 | 6,854.629759 |
fkq3gnxydn | will-manchester-city-win-the-premie-cv0zf5df2q | Will Manchester City win the Premier League before their game on May 18, two games left to play? | null | 1,726,580,372,585 | 1,742,181,522,582 | 1,742,181,522,582 | NO | 0.01 | 24,817.175934 |
es94zjxiq1 | will-the-miami-dolphins-have-a-500 | Will the Miami Dolphins have a .500 record or better with a QB1 who isn’t Tua under center during the 2024 season? | null | 1,726,578,622,008 | 1,736,130,849,104 | 1,736,130,849,104 | NO | 0.052351 | 6,342.383911 |
j91qznrxkc | will-a-member-of-the-governing-body | Will a member of the governing body of Jehovah's Witnesses be removed from their position by the end of January? | null | 1,726,558,039,089 | 1,738,472,340,000 | 1,738,988,751,416 | NO | 0.053937 | 3,525 |
l16qe7mgsr | will-beyond-the-summit-return-by-th | Will Beyond the Summit return by the end of 2024? | null | 1,726,519,376,506 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,736,008,937,006 | NO | 0.067904 | 272.092953 |
dr4k7em7b1 | will-shapley-value-attribution-in-c | Will "Shapley Value Attribution in Chain of Thought" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,726,517,547,425 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,305,370,197 | NO | 0.111775 | 250 |
ygo0gaxbbi | will-there-be-an-attempt-to-assassi | Will there be an attempt to assassinate either Vance or Walz before the next inauguration? | null | 1,726,513,133,047 | 1,737,439,140,000 | 1,737,522,637,822 | NO | 0.01 | 9,697.618803 |
kvw54a2mxw | will-the-russiaukraine-war-come-to | Will the Russia-Ukraine war come to an end before February 2025? | null | 1,726,504,715,511 | 1,738,472,340,000 | 1,741,124,029,947 | NO | 0.01 | 1,023.077273 |
c35o15ot4e | will-instagram-be-forced-to-detect | Will instagram be forced to detect and inform the user when a content has been produced with AI? | null | 1,726,502,147,208 | 1,747,173,540,000 | 1,748,109,624,052 | NO | 0.032767 | 728 |
pmrtb66vfj | will-black-myth-wukong-will-win-gam | Will Black Myth: Wukong will win Game of the Year at the 2024 Game Awards? | null | 1,726,498,589,359 | 1,726,597,740,000 | 1,735,874,072,335 | NO | 0.155756 | 352.515695 |
xxolpahj0r | will-sam-darnold-get-more-than-20-t | Will Sam Darnold get more than 20 TD's for the Vikings this year? | null | 1,726,495,939,639 | 1,738,013,952,434 | 1,738,013,952,434 | YES | 0.99 | 10,978.944567 |
mwpb8vlhdj | will-the-bbc-succeed-in-reclaiming | Will the BBC succeed in reclaiming £200,000 or more of Huw Edward's salary by the end of 2024 | null | 1,726,494,105,996 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,735,813,644,913 | NO | 0.195742 | 105 |
l9nswgrny4 | will-rfk-jr-win-more-than-3-of-the | Will RFK Jr win more than 3% of the vote in any state in the 2024 Presidential Election? | null | 1,726,477,142,233 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,736,192,655 | NO | 0.045422 | 360 |
piap8xqsiu | 3rd-assassination-attempt-on-donald | 3rd assassination attempt on Donald Trump? | null | 1,726,450,842,842 | 1,738,396,740,000 | 1,738,437,594,003 | NO | 0.01 | 504,483.962941 |
f7z2rryeu8 | will-recommendation-bug-bounties-an | Will "Recommendation: Bug Bounties and Responsible ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,726,435,748,890 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,466,401 | NO | 0.12729 | 100 |
9nsz2q94he | will-i-be-on-the-2025-us-ipho-team | Will I be on the 2025 US IPhO Team? | null | 1,726,425,403,342 | 1,749,434,413,351 | 1,749,434,413,351 | NO | 0.160823 | 8,835.926177 |
r57f829lwf | will-polymarket-fairly-resolve-all | Will Polymarket fairly resolve all US 2024 presidential election markets up through inauguration? | null | 1,726,362,612,479 | 1,737,435,540,000 | 1,737,657,346,174 | YES | 0.99 | 18,679.532113 |
3iaqblkgq3 | if-kamala-harris-loses-will-joe-bid | Will Joe Biden express regret about dropping out before the end of his term [video evidence]? | null | 1,726,318,968,527 | 1,736,571,274,611 | 1,737,224,284,158 | YES | 0.962745 | 44,306.44477 |
q6xg106zka | will-cmc-play-in-10-or-more-games-i | Will CMC play in 10 or more games in the 2024-2025 season including playoffs? | null | 1,726,290,362,606 | 1,736,697,778,362 | 1,736,697,778,362 | NO | 0.01258 | 7,860 |
8dfil7nr4y | i-will-make-usaco-camp | i will make usaco camp | null | 1,726,289,192,537 | 1,745,814,403,986 | 1,745,814,403,986 | YES | 0.99 | 12,951.248344 |
mkloh2v5h8 | will-the-switch-2-come-out-this-yea | Will the Switch 2 come out this year? | null | 1,726,275,598,810 | 1,736,756,057,212 | 1,736,756,057,212 | NO | 0.01 | 4,095.705082 |
bbd1jsqpam | will-a-new-donald-trump-affair-be-u | Will a new Donald Trump affair be uncovered before March 1st, 2025? | null | 1,726,253,336,207 | 1,740,884,340,000 | 1,741,698,362,098 | NO | 0.010064 | 15,091.722522 |
jbxlw97ork | will-openai-use-a-different-name-fo | Will OpenAI use a different name for an AI model this year than the names it already used with incremental numbers? | null | 1,726,234,459,324 | 1,735,682,340,000 | 1,741,734,950,797 | YES | 0.976943 | 1,445.611496 |
ttjcc9gu5f | will-the-population-of-san-francisc-n1k64h6ccq | Will the population of San Francisco increase from 2023 to 2024. | null | 1,726,227,717,756 | 1,740,873,540,000 | 1,741,908,056,294 | YES | 0.504608 | 1,004.194717 |
rpke8duw16 | will-there-be-a-spacex-starship-lau-v1mvysv3ov | Will there be a SpaceX Starship launch in the second quarter of 2025? | null | 1,726,225,142,184 | 1,748,389,610,089 | 1,748,389,610,089 | YES | 0.99 | 16,443.217987 |
a718phbphu | will-there-be-a-significant-ai-safe | Will there be a significant AI safety incident involving OpenAI o1 before April 2025? | null | 1,726,223,022,918 | 1,743,458,340,000 | 1,743,666,561,673 | NO | 0.0101 | 11,555.343924 |
xknweoh94z | will-the-doomsday-clock-remain-unch | Will the Doomsday clock remain unchanged this year? | null | 1,726,217,334,182 | 1,735,775,853,987 | 1,735,775,853,987 | YES | 0.99 | 2,192.547824 |
3t5178uyti | will-campbell-hutcheson-get-an-offe | Will Campbell Hutcheson get an offer from a foundation lab before January 1, 2025? | null | 1,726,202,939,572 | 1,735,692,207,145 | 1,735,692,207,145 | NO | 0.156888 | 1,550 |
tensyhhn9h | are-donald-trump-sr-and-laura-loome | Donald Trump Sr and Laura Loomer are in a sexual relationship? Credible evidence before March 31, 2025 | null | 1,726,192,752,684 | 1,743,490,740,000 | 1,745,800,107,678 | NO | 0.007887 | 452,408.80677 |
5mqyumf40g | will-donald-outperform-polls-in-the | Will Donald Outperform Polls in the 2024 election? | null | 1,726,171,226,180 | 1,736,360,940,000 | 1,747,855,396,360 | YES | 0.99 | 5,675.918806 |
jgytgofqlp | will-anthropic-release-a-strawberry | Will Anthropic release a “Strawberry” (OpenAI 01) equivalent model by March 12, 2025? | null | 1,726,170,002,151 | 1,741,611,571,933 | 1,741,611,571,933 | YES | 0.989585 | 2,399.431013 |
77sc24ymff | will-russia-control-pokrovsk-by-eoy | Will Russia control Pokrovsk by EOY 2024? | null | 1,726,164,388,643 | 1,735,772,340,000 | 1,736,504,655,749 | NO | 0.014834 | 3,107.14521 |
42rv9czc04 | will-a-case-for-ai-alignment-being | Will "A case for AI alignment being difficult" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,726,162,898,527 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,306,065,867 | NO | 0.14 | 0 |
ve7294tq5k | will-there-be-conclusive-evidence-o-6ufxfw22wy | Will there be conclusive evidence of a Haitian immigrant in Ohio eating a dog, cat, or similar pet before 2025? | null | 1,726,156,035,533 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,731,567,368 | NO | 0.03779 | 55,462.322458 |
ksc0cezs27 | will-alex-ovechkin-break-gretzkys-a | Will Alex Ovechkin break Gretzky’s all-time NHL goals record by the end of the 2024-2025 season? | null | 1,726,146,565,743 | 1,744,195,268,328 | 1,744,195,268,328 | YES | 0.989691 | 15,838.213987 |
tbm92iif9d | will-erling-haaland-score-100-pl-go | Will Erling Haaland score 100 PL goals before his 25th birthday? | null | 1,726,143,921,177 | 1,747,223,483,369 | 1,747,223,483,369 | NO | 0.04527 | 10,567.380799 |
4w2k3vkxgh | by-eoy-2025-will-chatgpt-remember-e | By EOY 2025, will ChatGPT remember (almost) everything you've ever told it? | null | 1,726,118,317,269 | 1,744,315,039,540 | 1,744,315,039,540 | YES | 0.97408 | 12,272.611505 |
68jswo1s6n | will-transcript-of-sam-altmans-inte | Will "Transcript of Sam Altman's interview touching..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,726,115,538,230 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,331,129 | NO | 0.116544 | 200 |
7nq4renbl0 | will-the-wayback-machine-still-exis | Will the Wayback Machine still exist by mid-2025? | null | 1,726,113,660,835 | 1,751,342,340,000 | 1,751,819,557,958 | YES | 0.989283 | 1,135.848921 |
zndb8i6dhr | is-taylor-swifts-voter-registration | Is Taylor Swift's voter registration campaign enough to swing the election? | null | 1,726,112,493,087 | 1,731,740,340,000 | 1,735,771,501,452 | NO | 0.01 | 12,069.626982 |
fs2x2dvnoj | will-linkpost-introducing-superalig | Will "[Linkpost] Introducing Superalignment" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,726,103,270,599 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,964,533,417 | NO | 0.1217 | 150 |
teqvi72e91 | -2024-ncaaf-will-billy-napier-still | 🏈 2024 NCAAF: Will Billy Napier still be the head coach of the Florida Gators on Jan 1st, 2025? | null | 1,726,102,937,280 | 1,735,751,006,051 | 1,735,751,006,051 | YES | 0.99 | 16,868.328446 |
g0s8j8znb7 | will-gta6-be-delayed | Will GTA6 be delayed? | null | 1,726,101,189,130 | 1,748,229,883,524 | 1,748,229,883,524 | YES | 0.99 | 2,472.176097 |
c8pqqjq97x | was-david-knowles-murdered | Was David Knowles murdered? | null | 1,726,081,584,573 | 1,751,439,540,000 | 1,751,560,715,871 | NO | 0.008629 | 11,216.06275 |
bq8v6c12pp | will-the-powerbeats-pro-2-include-h | Will the Powerbeats Pro 2 include heart monitoring? | null | 1,726,077,937,339 | 1,739,288,807,344 | 1,739,288,807,344 | YES | 0.606862 | 25 |
vej0ya1fl7 | will-the-next-canadian-federal-elec | Will the next Canadian federal election be before August 1st 2025? | null | 1,726,072,800,655 | 1,746,488,344,550 | 1,746,488,344,550 | YES | 0.99 | 9,027.559468 |
2t0q95ce0z | does-fitbit-will-replace-by-pixel-w | Does Fitbit will discontinued in 50 countries in end of 2024? | null | 1,726,069,960,347 | 1,735,669,740,000 | 1,735,700,288,797 | NO | 0.18102 | 115 |
x2elwy2kri | will-i-have-more-than-120-substack | Will I have more than 120 Substack subscribers by the end of the year? | null | 1,726,063,891,103 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,737,099,825 | NO | 0.017317 | 6,533.670071 |
vkbwemicbh | will-resolution-criteria-be-mandato-h1il222gib | Will resolution criteria be mandatory for new Yes/No markets on 03/03/2025? | null | 1,726,037,744,416 | 1,741,042,740,000 | 1,741,075,118,420 | NO | 0.01 | 900.409471 |
hp7eh9rarq | will-kendrick-perform-not-like-us-a | Will Kendrick perform Not Like Us at the next Superbowl Halftime show? | null | 1,726,025,280,469 | 1,742,235,972,091 | 1,742,235,972,091 | YES | 0.99 | 1,930.731023 |
zbe3d4jtp6 | will-russia-fully-end-its-war-with | Will Russia end it’s war with Ukraine before the next US presidential inauguration? | null | 1,726,020,313,422 | 1,737,389,995,427 | 1,737,389,995,427 | NO | 0.01 | 24,563.587432 |
3nt4jjdcjh | will-zvi-mowshowitz-call-one-of-his | Will Zvi Mowshowitz call one of his posts "Que Sera Sora" before May 2025? | null | 1,725,999,842,881 | 1,746,050,340,000 | 1,746,353,670,078 | NO | 0.010277 | 9,373.320489 |
pyvbf0n3sc | will-i-be-able-to-filter-multiplech | Will I be able to filter multiple-choice markets by answers that I have traded in before EOY 2024? | null | 1,725,997,682,951 | 1,735,804,740,000 | 1,735,858,371,026 | NO | 0.014248 | 766 |
25ucyw2w58 | will-jeanmarie-le-pen-survive-until | Will Jean-Marie Le Pen survive until the end of 2025? | null | 1,725,982,494,491 | 1,736,255,511,738 | 1,736,255,511,738 | NO | 0.01 | 1,019.288788 |
l14nlfrj4g | will-anonymous-limit-orders-be-plac | Will anonymous limit orders be placeable in 2024? | null | 1,725,982,437,242 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,732,636,043 | NO | 0.013678 | 896.178739 |
da4we2suhr | will-there-be-conclusive-evidence-o-dwhta8hic9 | Will there be conclusive evidence of a Haitian immigrant in Ohio eating a pet or wild animal before 2025? | null | 1,725,931,412,366 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,731,586,629 | NO | 0.031337 | 132,199.264899 |
9l3inqmqnq | will-harvey-weinstein-die-in-2024 | Will Harvey Weinstein die in 2024? | null | 1,725,921,761,026 | 1,735,775,876,719 | 1,735,775,876,719 | NO | 0.01 | 1,904.17661 |
z3jv6e2ogj | will-the-us-produce-more-turkey-mea | Will the US have produced more Turkey meat in 2024 than in 2023? | null | 1,725,920,565,510 | 1,746,140,340,000 | 1,746,345,119,137 | NO | 0.01 | 10,957.9462 |
vdzx71xcbt | will-the-washington-primary-correct | Will the Washington Primary correctly predict the Generic National Congressional margin? | null | 1,725,910,322,234 | 1,741,208,124,629 | 1,741,208,124,629 | NO | 0.01 | 1,227.172238 |
yh8kdpayyu | will-owen-wang-go-on-a-date-by-dece | Will Owen Wang go on a date by December 1, 2024 | null | 1,725,890,476,871 | 1,733,083,140,000 | 1,737,053,666,288 | NO | 0.63298 | 679.360897 |
vxyj017tpj | will-kamala-harris-resign-from-the | Will Kamala Harris resign from the Presidency before the winner of the 2028 election is inaugurated? | null | 1,725,879,499,805 | 1,739,940,334,792 | 1,739,940,334,792 | NO | 0.01 | 1,346.529614 |
sl4kmvygp6 | wil-yacine-kache-still-be-working-a-qe62lrqdk4 | Wil yacine / @kache still be working at Twitter / X at the end of 2026? | null | 1,725,851,899,893 | 1,750,486,908,906 | 1,750,486,908,906 | NO | 0.011605 | 1,031.830662 |
i4s2n4qkhb | will-i-jose-date-someone-before-end | Will I [Jose] date someone before end of 2024? | null | 1,725,849,015,871 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,720,658,726 | NO | 0.051343 | 9,229.071846 |
a72hpz6m8n | will-the-pull-up-world-record-be-br | Will the pull up world record be broken within a year of it being set? (today) | null | 1,725,829,055,403 | 1,747,592,036,605 | 1,747,592,036,605 | YES | 0.989649 | 1,005 |
0tumzluunq | will-i-eat-a-pineapple-or-strawberr | Will I eat a pineapple or strawberry until the end of this year? | null | 1,725,820,859,891 | 1,735,700,340,000 | 1,735,701,580,457 | YES | 0.386334 | 55 |
dbtn4kezzs | will-any-us-national-politician-be | Will any US national politician be indicted in connection with Russian election interference, spying, or influence? | null | 1,725,813,100,732 | 1,748,930,340,000 | 1,748,933,320,176 | NO | 0.045491 | 5,064.606408 |
vdhctdjenl | will-the-minecraft-movie-include-a | Will the Minecraft movie include a joke consisting of some reference to testicles being square, i.e. not "balls"? | null | 1,725,794,790,790 | 1,744,321,092,406 | 1,744,321,092,406 | NO | 0.009704 | 1,225.501094 |
tww5v4z4lf | will-vittorio-reappear-on-x-by-the | Will Vittorio reappear on X by the end of Dec? | null | 1,725,771,204,970 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,736,792,482,165 | YES | 0.99 | 896.117771 |
mjgzsx2iey | will-emily-armstrong-leave-linkin-p | Will Emily Armstrong leave Linkin Park before the end of 2024? | null | 1,725,747,468,876 | 1,735,793,940,000 | 1,735,858,536,804 | NO | 0.01 | 8,968.042599 |
goszckhgwm | will-candace-owens-be-subpoenaed-or | Will Candace Owens be subpoenaed or indicted by the USA government by the end of 2024? | null | 1,725,738,997,458 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,792,247,329 | NO | 0.022438 | 570.353215 |
jsqlkyxrd1 | will-there-be-8-or-more-scorigamis | Will there be 8 or more scorigamis in the 2024-2025 NFL season and Super Bowl? | null | 1,725,719,220,184 | 1,746,102,677,584 | 1,746,102,677,584 | NO | 0.01 | 2,310.123407 |
kevvq7u71q | will-there-be-5-or-more-scorigamis | Will there be 5 or more scorigamis in the 2024-2025 NFL season and Super Bowl? | null | 1,725,719,204,479 | 1,745,718,932,133 | 1,745,718,932,133 | YES | 0.99 | 1,071.461587 |
28xgkk8vtr | will-guardians-of-the-galaxy-cosmic | Will Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind at Epcot operate with a standby line after Test Track version 3 opens? | null | 1,725,709,807,516 | 1,752,027,600,569 | 1,752,027,600,569 | YES | 0.618551 | 28.180342 |
g26ugchiic | will-elon-be-subpoenaed-or-indicted | Will Elon be subpoenaed or indicted for foreign ties, money laundering, or other election interference by end of 2024? | null | 1,725,709,222,923 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,736,008,940,759 | NO | 0.032983 | 1,938.490759 |
6s07xxn73f | will-gary-patterson-be-baylors-foot | Will Gary Patterson be Baylor's football coach for the 2025 season? | null | 1,725,662,587,817 | 1,748,584,740,000 | 1,749,165,752,631 | NO | 0.01 | 1,044.406433 |
upklsvkh1j | will-tim-pool-benny-johnson-or-dave-7j4r3vfcbf | Will Tim Pool, Benny Johnson, or Dave Rubin be subpoenaed for their work with Tenet media by the end of 2024? | null | 1,725,661,576,372 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,736,008,947,492 | NO | 0.109673 | 1,439 |
bbe47ykjfw | will-barron-trump-join-a-fraternity | Will Barron Trump join a fraternity at NYU during his freshman year? | null | 1,725,658,566,061 | 1,748,442,744,556 | 1,748,442,744,556 | NO | 0.035089 | 570 |
9g8kfe8iv5 | if-trump-wins-will-rfk-jr-become-hi | If Trump wins, will RFK Jr become his first HHS secretary? | null | 1,725,654,965,356 | 1,739,485,769,960 | 1,739,485,769,960 | YES | 0.997055 | 52,870.889323 |
zo6v3r95mq | will-china-announce-the-establishme | Will China announce the establishment of an AI Safety Insitute in 2024? | null | 1,725,646,149,450 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,736,120,160,719 | NO | 0.13962 | 3,149.359115 |
rsoebmowxo | will-the-us-drop-out-of-the-paris-c | Will the US drop out of the Paris Climate Agreement by 2025? | null | 1,725,639,688,853 | 1,742,806,120,671 | 1,742,806,120,671 | YES | 0.908188 | 973.804272 |
4a2ezqcons | will-2024-will-the-warmest-year-eve | Will 2024 will the warmest year ever recorded (global) ? | null | 1,725,630,331,607 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,736,008,026,269 | YES | 0.99 | 898.400121 |
dsz5vh6elo | will-december-2024-will-be-the-warm | Will December 2024 will be the warmest month of December ever recorded (worldwide) ? | null | 1,725,629,861,959 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,736,008,032,547 | NO | 0.008186 | 2,208.938546 |
t5gv995adr | will-how-to-catch-an-ai-liar-lie-de | Will "How to Catch an AI Liar: Lie Detection in Bla..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,725,618,605,015 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,964,540,707 | NO | 0.12729 | 100 |
qjl2ovvrcq | metaculus-will-pavel-durov-leave-fr | [Metaculus] Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 1, 2025? | null | 1,725,617,497,627 | 1,735,808,400,000 | 1,735,852,896,147 | NO | 0.01209 | 15,451.901754 |
6uil74ktd7 | will-nicholas-biase-dept-of-justice | Will Nicholas Biase, Dept of Justice Public Affairs Chief of SDOf NY stay alive til 12-31-24 after lawfare revelations? | null | 1,725,590,839,550 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,747,956,941 | YES | 0.666419 | 539.565698 |
bvx0yrx8rq | will-mike-johnson-be-the-speaker-or | Will Mike Johnson be the Speaker or Minority Leader in the 119th Congress? | null | 1,725,584,065,218 | 1,736,225,940,000 | 1,743,044,447,607 | YES | 0.99 | 2,292.263427 |
k2t3s675wu | will-i-run-a-sub20-5k-before-may-10 | Will I run a sub-20 5k before May 10, 2025? | null | 1,725,556,862,549 | 1,746,895,817,067 | 1,746,895,817,067 | NO | 0.010835 | 101,134.898528 |
si2lojcdu8 | will-anies-baswedan-form-a-new-poli | Will Anies Baswedan Form a New Political Party Before 2025? | null | 1,725,551,967,901 | 1,735,664,340,000 | 1,741,652,361,101 | NO | 0.32 | 191.230466 |
3g04uihtsr | will-trump-ein-the-election-and-man | Will Trump win the Election and Manchester City the Premier League 2024/2025? | null | 1,725,551,251,017 | 1,751,743,913,758 | 1,751,743,915,573 | NO | 0.01 | 12,351.563583 |
chiu912ss7 | will-taylor-attend-at-least-half-of | Will Taylor attend at least half of the Chiefs games [24/25 season]? | null | 1,725,543,080,826 | 1,736,150,340,000 | 1,747,677,795,393 | NO | 0.398164 | 252.740193 |
fsbsbdvgng | will-warner-bros-announce-a-beetlej | Will Warner Bros announce a Beetlejuice Beetlejuice Beetlejuice by the end of 2024? | null | 1,725,541,200,963 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,848,072,322 | NO | 0.034335 | 432 |
ha8siwsis8 | will-michel-barnier-be-the-primer-m | Will Michel Barnier be the prime minister of France on Jan 1st 2025? | null | 1,725,536,609,166 | 1,735,772,340,000 | 1,735,801,143,370 | NO | 0.01 | 60,710.597818 |
m5rd4mpsp7 | will-the-legislative-filibuster-wea | Will the legislative filibuster weakened before 2026? | null | 1,725,520,666,199 | 1,747,928,499,063 | 1,747,928,499,063 | YES | 0.848733 | 8,514.168134 |
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