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will-donald-trump-do-anything-remot
Will Donald Trump do anything remotely surprising before 2025?
null
1,724,545,005,197
1,735,707,540,000
1,735,711,439,018
NO
0.093702
1,104.073812
rvlcvh07ds
will-star-wars-skeleton-crew-be-lik
Will Star Wars: Skeleton Crew be liked by both fans and critics?
null
1,724,530,330,309
1,737,014,340,000
1,737,071,102,208
YES
0.99
2,087.547493
gpnli7bs2w
will-the-movie-kneecap-be-nominated
Will the movie Kneecap be nominated for an Oscar?
null
1,724,520,763,806
1,737,651,053,220
1,737,651,053,220
NO
0.009717
11,740.191391
9vzbkq4zpf
will-grok-3-be-released-in-december
Will Grok 3 be released during December?
null
1,724,519,207,297
1,735,707,540,000
1,735,732,794,808
NO
0.043873
12,576.244469
aeuzpqvldg
will-grok-3-release-before-chat-gpt
Will Grok 3 release before Chat GPT 5?
null
1,724,518,998,642
1,740,467,448,836
1,740,467,448,836
YES
0.99
1,542.466156
mow2j2f9ur
one-year-after-its-release-will-ken
One year after its release, will Kendrick Lamar’s Not Like Us be in the top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100?
null
1,724,516,924,166
1,746,331,140,000
1,747,678,144,835
NO
0.013693
1,992.021974
rdha39sxie
will-there-be-evidence-of-29-being
Will there be evidence of @29 being BTE or FUH by the end of 2024?
null
1,724,515,972,259
1,735,707,540,000
1,735,775,202,315
NO
0.165735
341
hqspgion81
will-the-us-give-out-a-stimulus-che
Will the US give out a stimulus check in 2024?
null
1,724,507,630,257
1,735,718,340,000
1,735,771,027,391
NO
0.011126
69,520.02536
llv61klqzk
will-top-llm-models-use-formal-meth
will top LLM models use formal methods by EOY 2024?
null
1,724,501,339,891
1,735,675,140,000
1,736,555,480,499
NO
0.03124
520.769231
ciwn0j51wo
will-manifold-think-nate-silver-had
Will Manifold think Nate Silver had a bad take before the end of 2024?
null
1,724,490,450,227
1,735,689,540,000
1,735,701,911,230
NO
0.05977
1,524.92079
uyehcl9ky1
will-i-pass-my-year-12-physics-exam
Will I pass my year 12 physics exam?
null
1,724,477,540,211
1,735,736,340,000
1,737,088,528,992
YES
0.88415
308.798703
ray2hcyo9r
will-any-opensource-transformers-ll
Will any open-source Transformers LLM model that function as a dense mixture of experts be released by end of 2024?
null
1,724,473,689,184
1,735,718,340,000
1,735,771,147,172
NO
0.086857
2,268
3ns0hmvp6i
will-sweden-win-the-2025-eurovision
Will Sweden win the 2025 Eurovision Song Contest?
null
1,724,472,948,566
1,747,519,140,000
1,747,689,825,776
NO
0.568227
11,531.217777
pqux9yxtkp
will-taylor-swift-get-engaged-in-de
Will Taylor Swift get engaged in December 2024?
null
1,724,472,892,957
1,735,690,749,157
1,735,690,749,157
NO
0.01
897.661345
a8q4fplumq
is-gladiator-2-going-to-be-a-flop
Is Gladiator 2 going to be a flop?
null
1,724,471,115,369
1,736,582,340,000
1,737,348,537,030
YES
0.99
2,649.806975
c9sucvoqc7
will-the-next-manifest-offer-an-opt
Will the next Manifest offer an option to pay 100% of the cost with mana?
null
1,724,462,555,098
1,749,593,220,433
1,749,593,220,433
NO
0.01
1,076.396568
qc2va35qwq
will-the-us-population-have-grown-m
Will the U.S. Population Have Grown More in 2024 Than in 2023?
null
1,724,457,177,411
1,736,104,665,952
1,736,104,665,952
YES
0.99
1,424.283437
6kcq9jm2v5
if-trump-is-elected-president-will-d82xzhnd4h
If Trump is elected president, will he appoint Kennedy to a government position by the end of 2026?
null
1,724,445,089,714
1,739,465,167,939
1,739,465,167,939
YES
0.969622
9,330.049988
g7w5kkck6v
if-donald-trump-is-elected-presiden-szzftau0po
If Donald Trump is elected President, will Bobby Brain Worms Kennedy join his administration by the end of 2025?
null
1,724,439,411,625
1,739,769,308,597
1,739,769,308,597
YES
0.99
14,450.594379
sis542tw6o
will-there-be-consensus-on-who-dwar
Will there be consensus on who Dwarkesh's "biggest guest yet" was, before Q3 2025? (Resolves to poll)
null
1,724,436,503,744
1,751,353,140,000
1,751,540,388,611
NO
0.046341
14,565.286022
rqhbfpivuz
if-trump-wins-will-rfk-jr-be-nomina
If Trump wins, will RFK Jr be nominated to any cabinet/secretary position in 2025?
null
1,724,436,331,770
1,738,344,738,306
1,738,344,738,306
YES
0.99
17,069.954555
8cmzgyxip5
will-amanda-gorman-read-a-poem-at-t
Will Amanda Gorman read a poem at the 2025 inauguration?
null
1,724,436,194,995
1,737,521,940,000
1,737,581,895,246
NO
0.01
894.987437
ox71gzfmkb
will-oklahoma-legalize-online-sport
Will Oklahoma legalize online sports betting during its 2025 legislative session?
null
1,724,432,631,889
1,748,847,540,000
1,748,880,730,867
NO
0.012064
947.349158
117xfbnguo
does-shanks-have-a-doppelganger
Does Shanks have a doppelganger?
null
1,724,408,989,028
1,738,272,794,172
1,738,272,794,172
YES
0.99
1,301.72184
k49vbguyyd
will-the-elected-president-be-the-f
Will the elected President be the first candidate to reach 60%?
null
1,724,366,025,344
1,736,225,940,000
1,738,480,296,265
YES
0.987072
24,713.528291
cl22bygtmw
will-jason-kwon-or-openai-overall-p
Will Jason Kwon (or OpenAI overall) propose specific policies that OpenAI supports to regulate AI by 31 December 2024?
null
1,724,365,511,938
1,735,793,940,000
1,737,522,923,502
NO
0.10511
4,869.457494
ut4c0aixmd
will-i-see-a-coconut-before-kamala
Will I see a coconut before Kamala Harris is elected president?
null
1,724,346,336,086
1,740,871,897,658
1,740,871,897,658
YES
0.844445
135
0gm2o4nt3k
will-g-elliott-morris-still-work-at
Will G. Elliott Morris still work at FiveThirtyEight on June 1st 2025?
null
1,724,337,263,672
1,741,640,817,376
1,741,640,817,376
NO
0.01
10,566.904137
r89w80f1zl
yann-lecun-suddenly-leaves-facebook
Yann LeCun suddenly leaves Facebook by mid 2025
null
1,724,335,183,810
1,751,342,340,000
1,751,358,114,851
NO
0.01
9,238.442698
vfpg9y12me
musk-visits-white-house-if-trump-wi
Musk visits white house if Trump wins. Or doesn't visit if Harris wins, by mid 2025
null
1,724,331,413,932
1,738,963,796,381
1,738,963,796,381
YES
0.99
16,067.56134
f34kfu9cqn
photo-of-musk-in-the-white-house-by
Photo of Musk in the white house by mid 2025
null
1,724,331,025,167
1,738,986,522,200
1,738,986,522,200
YES
0.989416
945.64993
apypblxssc
if-trump-wins-the-2024-presidential
If Trump wins the 2024 presidential election, will RFK be confirmed for a cabinet position within six months?
null
1,724,330,174,834
1,739,465,873,887
1,739,465,879,390
YES
0.99
38,664.553017
hzp0a8zzez
will-conceding-a-short-timelines-be
Will "Conceding a short timelines bet early" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
null
1,724,322,799,414
1,738,368,000,000
1,738,964,645,349
NO
0.062893
1,150
ouqyeowl3l
will-chatgpt-and-now-gpt4-is-very-e
Will "ChatGPT (and now GPT4) is very easily distrac..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
null
1,724,319,806,369
1,738,368,000,000
1,738,964,651,870
NO
0.111314
255
dh90ont93r
will-season-3-of-the-sandman-netfli
Will Season 3 of The Sandman (Netflix) be announced before 2029?
null
1,724,307,084,897
1,738,704,854,151
1,738,704,854,151
NO
0.169178
272
f7zh590hx8
will-elon-musk-deny-the-result-of-t
Will Elon Musk deny the results of the 2024 election? 🗳️🙅‍♂️🚫
null
1,724,295,563,775
1,737,446,340,000
1,738,395,069,589
NO
0.010638
3,188.009499
88y5yw9f1r
will-bronny-out-score-lebron-in-one
Will Bronny out score Lebron in one game of the 24-25 NBA regualaf season?
null
1,724,272,463,566
1,746,071,940,000
1,746,316,855,573
NO
0.010098
39,028.377626
fy57vk101l
will-cyber-monday-sales-in-2024-exc
Will cyber Monday sales in 2024 exceed 2023’s
null
1,724,272,362,507
1,735,718,340,000
1,735,745,344,262
YES
0.717182
60
k1kn782u9s
will-bronny-score-10-points-in-the
Will Bronny score 10+ points in the 24-25 NBA regular season?
null
1,724,272,234,703
1,740,535,107,649
1,740,535,107,649
YES
0.991888
14,959.019725
4f09j6om6x
will-black-friday-sales-in-2024-be
Will Black Friday sales in 2024 be greater than 2023
null
1,724,272,033,343
1,735,718,340,000
1,735,745,333,104
YES
0.873975
165
awewfkpt5z
will-we-found-an-neuron-in-gpt2-mak
Will "We Found An Neuron in GPT-2" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
null
1,724,267,807,831
1,738,368,000,000
1,738,964,663,601
NO
0.14
0
r6t86kxpd0
if-trump-wins-will-rfk-become-secre
If Trump wins, will RFK Jr. become secretary of health and human services?
null
1,724,265,898,153
1,739,477,304,423
1,739,477,304,423
YES
0.989722
311,343.042576
xogmogwasu
40-on-cybench-by-eoy-2024
40% on cybench by EOY 2024
null
1,724,261,192,364
1,735,718,340,000
1,735,719,834,354
NO
0.364879
320
hb50x1lo0t
will-nosferatu-have-a-rotten-tomato
Will Nosferatu have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >75%?
null
1,724,243,670,680
1,735,722,332,805
1,735,722,332,805
YES
0.97862
580
eoybw78mu8
will-there-be-a-large-prisoner-exch
Will there be a large prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine by end of 2024?
null
1,724,233,603,498
1,735,707,540,000
1,746,645,849,989
NO
0.026356
10,058.238883
ovuo7vc4qi
will-a-second-election-be-held-in-v
Will a second election be held in Venezuela by the end of 2024?
null
1,724,195,539,300
1,735,707,540,000
1,736,618,196,326
NO
0.010606
6,238.934225
978ezg741e
will-yi01ai-go-bankrupt-get-acquire
Will YI01.AI go bankrupt / get acquired in 2024?
null
1,724,179,470,749
1,735,685,940,000
1,735,732,892,524
NO
0.098465
267
qo10w644lw
will-there-be-900-million-airline-p
Will there be 900 million airline passenger screenings by the TSA in 2024?
null
1,724,171,769,314
1,735,718,340,000
1,735,721,520,243
YES
0.859397
182.541616
dbs17fdpcw
will-valve-announce-half-life-3-in
Will Valve announce Half Life 3 in 2024?
null
1,724,152,482,070
1,735,678,740,000
1,740,467,831,759
NO
0.016467
4,884.436047
hxpqnqxmne
will-belarus-send-troops-to-support
Will Belarus send troops to support Russia in border regions by end of 2024?
null
1,724,149,457,163
1,735,685,940,000
1,735,723,077,621
NO
0.029845
8,977.908631
ut29zsk5ny
will-disney-sue-x-over-grok-copyrig
Will Disney sue X over Grok copyright issues in 2024?
null
1,724,124,109,260
1,735,707,540,000
1,735,715,434,363
NO
0.032098
664.543835
scwqtnp4m7
will-biden-pardon-bob-menendez
Will Biden pardon Bob Menendez?
null
1,724,116,032,039
1,737,398,446,382
1,737,398,446,382
NO
0.01
27,803.015758
7o1jl2x0gp
will-registrations-of-new-bevs-reac
Will registrations of new electric vehicles reach 93% in January 2025 in Norway?
null
1,724,101,942,184
1,738,450,740,000
1,744,548,334,132
YES
0.52
86.357468
4dxz1c7p8f
will-toyota-announce-a-sixth-genera-xdnasn9gdf
Will Toyota announce a sixth generation RAV4 in 2024?
null
1,724,097,866,556
1,735,718,340,000
1,735,746,171,934
NO
0.026271
89,469.686022
103vck839e
will-i-graduate-from-high-school
Will I graduate from high school?
null
1,724,095,762,762
1,748,674,740,000
1,748,675,722,366
YES
0.927956
28,601.252681
27opfmznvp
will-i-prove-my-weirdass-permutatio
Will I prove my weird-ass permutation statistic conjecture?
null
1,724,095,707,675
1,745,254,306,275
1,745,254,306,275
NO
0.339662
1,721.582999
oppj0og5d5
premier-league-20245-will-erling-ha
Premier League 2024/5 - Will Erling Haaland score 30+ league goals?
null
1,724,089,010,827
1,748,213,940,000
1,748,469,414,264
NO
0.01
20,758.361763
eu40pffb66
will-ohio-amend-its-constitution-to
Will Ohio vote to ban gerrymandering?
null
1,724,076,935,265
1,730,879,940,000
1,740,464,590,371
NO
0.617723
330
apctkhziqc
will-telegram-be-blocked-in-russia
Will Telegram be blocked in Russia by the end of 2024?
null
1,724,072,290,208
1,735,685,940,000
1,735,940,397,542
NO
0.025413
8,145.334418
ealyf5lsgi
will-taylor-swift-sue-trump-for-usi
Will Taylor Swift sue Trump for using AI to make a fake endorsement from her?
null
1,724,067,130,112
1,735,689,540,000
1,735,906,189,971
NO
0.021262
25,463.081575
ma36n0ihw2
will-the-median-price-of-houses-sol
Will the median price of houses sold in the US drop below $400,000 by Q1 2025?
null
1,724,019,834,737
1,745,567,602,790
1,745,567,619,581
NO
0.01
122,154.957112
8hftwuwfqd
will-i-lose-my-partner-badge-in-202
Will I lose my partner badge in 2024?
null
1,723,998,434,733
1,735,718,340,000
1,735,847,924,322
NO
0.01
914.664282
f1gt8gnjh7
will-the-us-is-becoming-less-stable
Will "The U.S. is becoming less stable" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
null
1,723,990,743,499
1,738,368,000,000
1,738,964,675,281
NO
0.107352
300
3f186v23ca
gpt5-is-real-will-be-significantly
GPT-5 class models are real, will be significantly better than GPT-4, and are coming by the end of the year.
null
1,723,990,461,621
1,735,707,540,000
1,736,464,525,725
NO
0.447749
35,023.758492
0zx86dzagu
will-the-turkiye-parliaments-fight
Will the Türkiye parliament's fight club have another public exhibition by the end of 2024?
null
1,723,981,558,662
1,735,718,340,000
1,735,761,020,777
NO
0.11627
1,821
zx705wvc9j
will-the-nfl-202425-season-be-highe
Will the NFL 2024/25 season be higher scoring than 2023/24?
null
1,723,930,529,949
1,739,692,740,000
1,739,747,419,944
YES
0.99
9,261.822478
5jj656p9hm
will-nfelo-predictions-beat-vegas-i
Will nfelo predictions beat Vegas in 2024/25?
null
1,723,930,172,612
1,739,174,340,000
1,739,747,458,002
NO
0.01
904.717888
vedmnzqu42
will-there-be-a-demonstration-of-my
Will there be a demonstration of my conlang before 2025?
null
1,723,903,526,530
1,735,685,940,000
1,735,742,785,074
NO
0.581376
432.182238
ovna88jeg0
will-russia-nuke-kursk-oblast-by-th
Will Russia nuke Kursk oblasť by the end of 2024?
null
1,723,897,142,089
1,735,685,940,000
1,735,860,890,303
NO
0.01
5,589.06128
l7jzmkfymm
will-ontario-college-teachers-opseu-0oacvw90tz
Will Ontario college teachers (OPSEU CAAT) strike in the current round of bargaining?
null
1,723,895,752,603
1,736,338,167,913
1,736,338,167,913
NO
0.657859
1,065.189902
8241zjlsky
will-civ-7-have-competent-ai
Will Civ 7 have competent AI?
null
1,723,881,263,191
1,740,450,089,469
1,740,450,089,469
NO
0.100347
216.72378
dlpaf3ttiq
will-rich-sutton-and-eliezer-yudkow
Will Rich Sutton and Eliezer Yudkowsky debate at Manifest 2025
null
1,723,868,316,043
1,749,489,323,065
1,749,489,323,065
NO
0.072267
3,678.065338
3l52vj76jd
will-any-2024-senate-candidate-rais
Will any 2024 Senate candidate raise more than Adam Schiff?
null
1,723,841,270,529
1,734,422,340,000
1,735,730,099,383
YES
0.959158
4,451.231931
bvpgs1ayps
will-republicans-win-any-safe-d-sta
Will Republicans win any Safe D state?
null
1,723,841,099,509
1,735,711,140,000
1,736,101,840,697
NO
0.01
926.936275
whzt15w206
will-democrats-win-any-safe-r-state-pife643nrw
Will Democrats win any Safe R state
null
1,723,840,969,910
1,735,711,140,000
1,736,101,849,236
NO
0.018209
751
itc58j2dc5
will-the-united-states-be-directly
Will the United States be directly involved in a war by the end of 2028?
null
1,723,818,400,422
1,750,556,110,576
1,750,556,110,576
YES
0.903112
3,785.15915
1qriku6ak2
will-a-la-liga-regular-season-match-4e6bn123bi
Will a La Liga regular season match be played in the United States this year?
null
1,723,817,397,865
1,735,772,340,000
1,735,772,522,072
NO
0.01
10,740.152286
j2ffa79cik
will-disney-threaten-litigation-aga
Will Disney threaten litigation against Musk, X, or xAI this year over GenAI?
null
1,723,816,885,609
1,735,770,547,972
1,735,770,547,972
NO
0.262018
186
r0mwsg9kjd
will-there-be-more-women-in-the-119
Will there be more women in the 119th Congress than there were in the 118th Congress?
null
1,723,795,893,623
1,735,977,540,000
1,736,199,999,258
NO
0.025985
636.059761
2q92p2pjb9
will-there-be-a-separate-ukrainian
Will there be a separate Ukrainian incursion into Russia before the end of 2024?
null
1,723,779,663,589
1,735,660,740,000
1,736,660,637,950
NO
0.071243
2,081.325871
tprzeiu04t
will-pausing-ai-developments-isnt-e-h9yy9ohsp8
Will "Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
null
1,723,777,818,988
1,738,368,000,000
1,738,964,683,215
YES
0.133368
50
ndd6f1mex2
will-curtis-yarvin-return-to-a-publ
Will Curtis Yarvin return to a public role with the Urbit project in the remainder of 2024?
null
1,723,768,398,909
1,735,718,340,000
1,743,456,286,399
YES
0.778614
1,515.462714
f2i7ke1a20
will-the-team-with-the-most-points
Will the team with the most points be crowned Premier League champions in 24-25 season?
null
1,723,762,097,527
1,751,353,140,000
1,751,389,661,786
YES
0.989801
9,395.590648
ftb08gdk2k
will-there-be-an-mpox-pandemic-in-2
Will there be an Mpox pandemic in 2024?
null
1,723,752,587,313
1,735,754,871,637
1,735,754,871,637
NO
0.01
19,712.059266
0kgn9jha4x
will-apple-announce-a-smart-ring-in
Will Apple Announce a smart ring in 2024
null
1,723,751,754,193
1,735,718,340,000
1,735,831,999,551
NO
0.041454
7,612.473364
9tdclkisr1
will-there-be-at-least-100-total-de
Will there be at least 100 total deaths in the US from Monkeypox by the end of 2024?
null
1,723,749,049,087
1,735,718,340,000
1,735,735,167,319
NO
0.028782
8,211.670219
l2jmliiz14
will-the-day-the-clown-cried-be-scr-z5b1bxoikw
Will 'The Day the Clown Cried' be screened by the Library of Congress before the end of 2024?
null
1,723,740,395,597
1,735,707,540,000
1,735,775,189,238
NO
0.041335
383
vhyeoply3z
will-steamos-40-come-out-by-the-end
Will SteamOS 4.0 come out by the end of March 2025?
null
1,723,738,863,154
1,743,544,740,000
1,743,684,143,746
NO
0.01
914.968262
7obd6nzemw
will-any-iphone-with-the-a12-soc-ip-1k5tc1yxd8
Will any iPhone with the A12 SoC (iPhone XR, iPhone XS) receive updates to iOS 19
null
1,723,709,302,821
1,748,786,340,000
1,749,495,653,284
NO
0.48
2,717.000223
4aaszsmzp2
will-there-be-credible-evidence-tha-ahcvpo9l6p
Will there be credible evidence that they UK could have unilaterally approved used of Storm Shadow missiles in Russia?
null
1,723,671,261,921
1,735,718,340,000
1,738,351,683,553
NO
0.58841
2,953.568297
084hn7jra5
will-there-be-a-free-website-that-c
Will there be a free website that converts names to social security numbers by end of year?
null
1,723,665,999,036
1,735,718,340,000
1,738,835,422,538
NO
0.004836
32,725.838549
vhmltwx7rz
will-someone-sue-xai-or-x-this-year
Will someone sue xAI or X this year because Grok generated an image of them?
null
1,723,649,893,294
1,735,718,340,000
1,735,724,036,893
NO
0.06505
3,214.785526
d9iww81vd1
will-edmundo-gonzalez-be-sworn-in-a
Will Edmundo González be sworn in as Venezuela's president in January 2025?
null
1,723,645,851,597
1,735,786,740,000
1,738,515,198,508
NO
0.02422
710
yxeqnm6zmj
will-stranded-astronauts-leave-the
Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024?
null
1,723,645,849,482
1,737,003,540,000
1,738,480,277,797
NO
0.01
1,759.072349
1trxiufzfx
will-a-case-for-the-least-forgiving
Will "A Case for the Least Forgiving Take On Alignment" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
null
1,723,645,000,859
1,738,368,000,000
1,739,305,342,663
NO
0.111314
255
ro40f59eae
will-this-market-still-be-open-in-2
Will this market still be open in 2026?
null
1,723,622,050,525
1,735,686,060,000
1,737,754,292,736
NO
0.392963
75
9qcy0oa5qu
will-does-davidads-uploading-moonsh
Will "Does davidad's uploading moonshot work?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
null
1,723,613,244,454
1,738,368,000,000
1,739,304,487,127
NO
0.121553
150
k5ju351cjb
will-covid-hospitalizations-in-2024
Will covid hospitalizations in 2024 reach 8 per 100000?
null
1,723,593,490,015
1,735,545,540,000
1,735,831,461,706
NO
0.051085
355
f0h4zy9unc
will-the-uk-descend-in-to-civil-war
Will the UK descend in to civil war before 2025?
null
1,723,587,881,283
1,735,689,540,000
1,735,723,726,507
NO
0.01
24,544.820377
5yyg7mn6pc
will-at-least-a-1000-people-be-char
Will a 1000 people or over be charged in connection with the UK riots in 2024?
null
1,723,587,554,429
1,735,689,540,000
1,737,471,457,716
NO
0.257938
207.673274