id stringlengths 9 20 | slug stringlengths 4 54 | question stringlengths 1 120 | firstGroup float64 | createdTime int64 1,715B 1,752B | closeTime int64 1,717B 1,752B | resolvedTime int64 1,736B 1,752B | resolution stringclasses 2 values | resolutionProbability float64 0 1 | volume float64 0 6.93M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6z4puc6ef0 | will-donald-trump-do-anything-remot | Will Donald Trump do anything remotely surprising before 2025? | null | 1,724,545,005,197 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,711,439,018 | NO | 0.093702 | 1,104.073812 |
rvlcvh07ds | will-star-wars-skeleton-crew-be-lik | Will Star Wars: Skeleton Crew be liked by both fans and critics? | null | 1,724,530,330,309 | 1,737,014,340,000 | 1,737,071,102,208 | YES | 0.99 | 2,087.547493 |
gpnli7bs2w | will-the-movie-kneecap-be-nominated | Will the movie Kneecap be nominated for an Oscar? | null | 1,724,520,763,806 | 1,737,651,053,220 | 1,737,651,053,220 | NO | 0.009717 | 11,740.191391 |
9vzbkq4zpf | will-grok-3-be-released-in-december | Will Grok 3 be released during December? | null | 1,724,519,207,297 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,732,794,808 | NO | 0.043873 | 12,576.244469 |
aeuzpqvldg | will-grok-3-release-before-chat-gpt | Will Grok 3 release before Chat GPT 5? | null | 1,724,518,998,642 | 1,740,467,448,836 | 1,740,467,448,836 | YES | 0.99 | 1,542.466156 |
mow2j2f9ur | one-year-after-its-release-will-ken | One year after its release, will Kendrick Lamar’s Not Like Us be in the top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100? | null | 1,724,516,924,166 | 1,746,331,140,000 | 1,747,678,144,835 | NO | 0.013693 | 1,992.021974 |
rdha39sxie | will-there-be-evidence-of-29-being | Will there be evidence of @29 being BTE or FUH by the end of 2024? | null | 1,724,515,972,259 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,202,315 | NO | 0.165735 | 341 |
hqspgion81 | will-the-us-give-out-a-stimulus-che | Will the US give out a stimulus check in 2024? | null | 1,724,507,630,257 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,771,027,391 | NO | 0.011126 | 69,520.02536 |
llv61klqzk | will-top-llm-models-use-formal-meth | will top LLM models use formal methods by EOY 2024? | null | 1,724,501,339,891 | 1,735,675,140,000 | 1,736,555,480,499 | NO | 0.03124 | 520.769231 |
ciwn0j51wo | will-manifold-think-nate-silver-had | Will Manifold think Nate Silver had a bad take before the end of 2024? | null | 1,724,490,450,227 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,735,701,911,230 | NO | 0.05977 | 1,524.92079 |
uyehcl9ky1 | will-i-pass-my-year-12-physics-exam | Will I pass my year 12 physics exam? | null | 1,724,477,540,211 | 1,735,736,340,000 | 1,737,088,528,992 | YES | 0.88415 | 308.798703 |
ray2hcyo9r | will-any-opensource-transformers-ll | Will any open-source Transformers LLM model that function as a dense mixture of experts be released by end of 2024? | null | 1,724,473,689,184 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,771,147,172 | NO | 0.086857 | 2,268 |
3ns0hmvp6i | will-sweden-win-the-2025-eurovision | Will Sweden win the 2025 Eurovision Song Contest? | null | 1,724,472,948,566 | 1,747,519,140,000 | 1,747,689,825,776 | NO | 0.568227 | 11,531.217777 |
pqux9yxtkp | will-taylor-swift-get-engaged-in-de | Will Taylor Swift get engaged in December 2024? | null | 1,724,472,892,957 | 1,735,690,749,157 | 1,735,690,749,157 | NO | 0.01 | 897.661345 |
a8q4fplumq | is-gladiator-2-going-to-be-a-flop | Is Gladiator 2 going to be a flop? | null | 1,724,471,115,369 | 1,736,582,340,000 | 1,737,348,537,030 | YES | 0.99 | 2,649.806975 |
c9sucvoqc7 | will-the-next-manifest-offer-an-opt | Will the next Manifest offer an option to pay 100% of the cost with mana? | null | 1,724,462,555,098 | 1,749,593,220,433 | 1,749,593,220,433 | NO | 0.01 | 1,076.396568 |
qc2va35qwq | will-the-us-population-have-grown-m | Will the U.S. Population Have Grown More in 2024 Than in 2023? | null | 1,724,457,177,411 | 1,736,104,665,952 | 1,736,104,665,952 | YES | 0.99 | 1,424.283437 |
6kcq9jm2v5 | if-trump-is-elected-president-will-d82xzhnd4h | If Trump is elected president, will he appoint Kennedy to a government position by the end of 2026? | null | 1,724,445,089,714 | 1,739,465,167,939 | 1,739,465,167,939 | YES | 0.969622 | 9,330.049988 |
g7w5kkck6v | if-donald-trump-is-elected-presiden-szzftau0po | If Donald Trump is elected President, will Bobby Brain Worms Kennedy join his administration by the end of 2025? | null | 1,724,439,411,625 | 1,739,769,308,597 | 1,739,769,308,597 | YES | 0.99 | 14,450.594379 |
sis542tw6o | will-there-be-consensus-on-who-dwar | Will there be consensus on who Dwarkesh's "biggest guest yet" was, before Q3 2025? (Resolves to poll) | null | 1,724,436,503,744 | 1,751,353,140,000 | 1,751,540,388,611 | NO | 0.046341 | 14,565.286022 |
rqhbfpivuz | if-trump-wins-will-rfk-jr-be-nomina | If Trump wins, will RFK Jr be nominated to any cabinet/secretary position in 2025? | null | 1,724,436,331,770 | 1,738,344,738,306 | 1,738,344,738,306 | YES | 0.99 | 17,069.954555 |
8cmzgyxip5 | will-amanda-gorman-read-a-poem-at-t | Will Amanda Gorman read a poem at the 2025 inauguration? | null | 1,724,436,194,995 | 1,737,521,940,000 | 1,737,581,895,246 | NO | 0.01 | 894.987437 |
ox71gzfmkb | will-oklahoma-legalize-online-sport | Will Oklahoma legalize online sports betting during its 2025 legislative session? | null | 1,724,432,631,889 | 1,748,847,540,000 | 1,748,880,730,867 | NO | 0.012064 | 947.349158 |
117xfbnguo | does-shanks-have-a-doppelganger | Does Shanks have a doppelganger? | null | 1,724,408,989,028 | 1,738,272,794,172 | 1,738,272,794,172 | YES | 0.99 | 1,301.72184 |
k49vbguyyd | will-the-elected-president-be-the-f | Will the elected President be the first candidate to reach 60%? | null | 1,724,366,025,344 | 1,736,225,940,000 | 1,738,480,296,265 | YES | 0.987072 | 24,713.528291 |
cl22bygtmw | will-jason-kwon-or-openai-overall-p | Will Jason Kwon (or OpenAI overall) propose specific policies that OpenAI supports to regulate AI by 31 December 2024? | null | 1,724,365,511,938 | 1,735,793,940,000 | 1,737,522,923,502 | NO | 0.10511 | 4,869.457494 |
ut4c0aixmd | will-i-see-a-coconut-before-kamala | Will I see a coconut before Kamala Harris is elected president? | null | 1,724,346,336,086 | 1,740,871,897,658 | 1,740,871,897,658 | YES | 0.844445 | 135 |
0gm2o4nt3k | will-g-elliott-morris-still-work-at | Will G. Elliott Morris still work at FiveThirtyEight on June 1st 2025? | null | 1,724,337,263,672 | 1,741,640,817,376 | 1,741,640,817,376 | NO | 0.01 | 10,566.904137 |
r89w80f1zl | yann-lecun-suddenly-leaves-facebook | Yann LeCun suddenly leaves Facebook by mid 2025 | null | 1,724,335,183,810 | 1,751,342,340,000 | 1,751,358,114,851 | NO | 0.01 | 9,238.442698 |
vfpg9y12me | musk-visits-white-house-if-trump-wi | Musk visits white house if Trump wins. Or doesn't visit if Harris wins, by mid 2025 | null | 1,724,331,413,932 | 1,738,963,796,381 | 1,738,963,796,381 | YES | 0.99 | 16,067.56134 |
f34kfu9cqn | photo-of-musk-in-the-white-house-by | Photo of Musk in the white house by mid 2025 | null | 1,724,331,025,167 | 1,738,986,522,200 | 1,738,986,522,200 | YES | 0.989416 | 945.64993 |
apypblxssc | if-trump-wins-the-2024-presidential | If Trump wins the 2024 presidential election, will RFK be confirmed for a cabinet position within six months? | null | 1,724,330,174,834 | 1,739,465,873,887 | 1,739,465,879,390 | YES | 0.99 | 38,664.553017 |
hzp0a8zzez | will-conceding-a-short-timelines-be | Will "Conceding a short timelines bet early" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,724,322,799,414 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,964,645,349 | NO | 0.062893 | 1,150 |
ouqyeowl3l | will-chatgpt-and-now-gpt4-is-very-e | Will "ChatGPT (and now GPT4) is very easily distrac..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,724,319,806,369 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,964,651,870 | NO | 0.111314 | 255 |
dh90ont93r | will-season-3-of-the-sandman-netfli | Will Season 3 of The Sandman (Netflix) be announced before 2029? | null | 1,724,307,084,897 | 1,738,704,854,151 | 1,738,704,854,151 | NO | 0.169178 | 272 |
f7zh590hx8 | will-elon-musk-deny-the-result-of-t | Will Elon Musk deny the results of the 2024 election? 🗳️🙅♂️🚫 | null | 1,724,295,563,775 | 1,737,446,340,000 | 1,738,395,069,589 | NO | 0.010638 | 3,188.009499 |
88y5yw9f1r | will-bronny-out-score-lebron-in-one | Will Bronny out score Lebron in one game of the 24-25 NBA regualaf season? | null | 1,724,272,463,566 | 1,746,071,940,000 | 1,746,316,855,573 | NO | 0.010098 | 39,028.377626 |
fy57vk101l | will-cyber-monday-sales-in-2024-exc | Will cyber Monday sales in 2024 exceed 2023’s | null | 1,724,272,362,507 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,745,344,262 | YES | 0.717182 | 60 |
k1kn782u9s | will-bronny-score-10-points-in-the | Will Bronny score 10+ points in the 24-25 NBA regular season? | null | 1,724,272,234,703 | 1,740,535,107,649 | 1,740,535,107,649 | YES | 0.991888 | 14,959.019725 |
4f09j6om6x | will-black-friday-sales-in-2024-be | Will Black Friday sales in 2024 be greater than 2023 | null | 1,724,272,033,343 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,745,333,104 | YES | 0.873975 | 165 |
awewfkpt5z | will-we-found-an-neuron-in-gpt2-mak | Will "We Found An Neuron in GPT-2" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,724,267,807,831 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,964,663,601 | NO | 0.14 | 0 |
r6t86kxpd0 | if-trump-wins-will-rfk-become-secre | If Trump wins, will RFK Jr. become secretary of health and human services? | null | 1,724,265,898,153 | 1,739,477,304,423 | 1,739,477,304,423 | YES | 0.989722 | 311,343.042576 |
xogmogwasu | 40-on-cybench-by-eoy-2024 | 40% on cybench by EOY 2024 | null | 1,724,261,192,364 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,719,834,354 | NO | 0.364879 | 320 |
hb50x1lo0t | will-nosferatu-have-a-rotten-tomato | Will Nosferatu have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >75%? | null | 1,724,243,670,680 | 1,735,722,332,805 | 1,735,722,332,805 | YES | 0.97862 | 580 |
eoybw78mu8 | will-there-be-a-large-prisoner-exch | Will there be a large prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine by end of 2024? | null | 1,724,233,603,498 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,746,645,849,989 | NO | 0.026356 | 10,058.238883 |
ovuo7vc4qi | will-a-second-election-be-held-in-v | Will a second election be held in Venezuela by the end of 2024? | null | 1,724,195,539,300 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,736,618,196,326 | NO | 0.010606 | 6,238.934225 |
978ezg741e | will-yi01ai-go-bankrupt-get-acquire | Will YI01.AI go bankrupt / get acquired in 2024? | null | 1,724,179,470,749 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,732,892,524 | NO | 0.098465 | 267 |
qo10w644lw | will-there-be-900-million-airline-p | Will there be 900 million airline passenger screenings by the TSA in 2024? | null | 1,724,171,769,314 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,721,520,243 | YES | 0.859397 | 182.541616 |
dbs17fdpcw | will-valve-announce-half-life-3-in | Will Valve announce Half Life 3 in 2024? | null | 1,724,152,482,070 | 1,735,678,740,000 | 1,740,467,831,759 | NO | 0.016467 | 4,884.436047 |
hxpqnqxmne | will-belarus-send-troops-to-support | Will Belarus send troops to support Russia in border regions by end of 2024? | null | 1,724,149,457,163 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,723,077,621 | NO | 0.029845 | 8,977.908631 |
ut29zsk5ny | will-disney-sue-x-over-grok-copyrig | Will Disney sue X over Grok copyright issues in 2024? | null | 1,724,124,109,260 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,715,434,363 | NO | 0.032098 | 664.543835 |
scwqtnp4m7 | will-biden-pardon-bob-menendez | Will Biden pardon Bob Menendez? | null | 1,724,116,032,039 | 1,737,398,446,382 | 1,737,398,446,382 | NO | 0.01 | 27,803.015758 |
7o1jl2x0gp | will-registrations-of-new-bevs-reac | Will registrations of new electric vehicles reach 93% in January 2025 in Norway? | null | 1,724,101,942,184 | 1,738,450,740,000 | 1,744,548,334,132 | YES | 0.52 | 86.357468 |
4dxz1c7p8f | will-toyota-announce-a-sixth-genera-xdnasn9gdf | Will Toyota announce a sixth generation RAV4 in 2024? | null | 1,724,097,866,556 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,746,171,934 | NO | 0.026271 | 89,469.686022 |
103vck839e | will-i-graduate-from-high-school | Will I graduate from high school? | null | 1,724,095,762,762 | 1,748,674,740,000 | 1,748,675,722,366 | YES | 0.927956 | 28,601.252681 |
27opfmznvp | will-i-prove-my-weirdass-permutatio | Will I prove my weird-ass permutation statistic conjecture? | null | 1,724,095,707,675 | 1,745,254,306,275 | 1,745,254,306,275 | NO | 0.339662 | 1,721.582999 |
oppj0og5d5 | premier-league-20245-will-erling-ha | Premier League 2024/5 - Will Erling Haaland score 30+ league goals? | null | 1,724,089,010,827 | 1,748,213,940,000 | 1,748,469,414,264 | NO | 0.01 | 20,758.361763 |
eu40pffb66 | will-ohio-amend-its-constitution-to | Will Ohio vote to ban gerrymandering? | null | 1,724,076,935,265 | 1,730,879,940,000 | 1,740,464,590,371 | NO | 0.617723 | 330 |
apctkhziqc | will-telegram-be-blocked-in-russia | Will Telegram be blocked in Russia by the end of 2024? | null | 1,724,072,290,208 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,940,397,542 | NO | 0.025413 | 8,145.334418 |
ealyf5lsgi | will-taylor-swift-sue-trump-for-usi | Will Taylor Swift sue Trump for using AI to make a fake endorsement from her? | null | 1,724,067,130,112 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,735,906,189,971 | NO | 0.021262 | 25,463.081575 |
ma36n0ihw2 | will-the-median-price-of-houses-sol | Will the median price of houses sold in the US drop below $400,000 by Q1 2025? | null | 1,724,019,834,737 | 1,745,567,602,790 | 1,745,567,619,581 | NO | 0.01 | 122,154.957112 |
8hftwuwfqd | will-i-lose-my-partner-badge-in-202 | Will I lose my partner badge in 2024? | null | 1,723,998,434,733 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,847,924,322 | NO | 0.01 | 914.664282 |
f1gt8gnjh7 | will-the-us-is-becoming-less-stable | Will "The U.S. is becoming less stable" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,723,990,743,499 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,964,675,281 | NO | 0.107352 | 300 |
3f186v23ca | gpt5-is-real-will-be-significantly | GPT-5 class models are real, will be significantly better than GPT-4, and are coming by the end of the year. | null | 1,723,990,461,621 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,736,464,525,725 | NO | 0.447749 | 35,023.758492 |
0zx86dzagu | will-the-turkiye-parliaments-fight | Will the Türkiye parliament's fight club have another public exhibition by the end of 2024? | null | 1,723,981,558,662 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,761,020,777 | NO | 0.11627 | 1,821 |
zx705wvc9j | will-the-nfl-202425-season-be-highe | Will the NFL 2024/25 season be higher scoring than 2023/24? | null | 1,723,930,529,949 | 1,739,692,740,000 | 1,739,747,419,944 | YES | 0.99 | 9,261.822478 |
5jj656p9hm | will-nfelo-predictions-beat-vegas-i | Will nfelo predictions beat Vegas in 2024/25? | null | 1,723,930,172,612 | 1,739,174,340,000 | 1,739,747,458,002 | NO | 0.01 | 904.717888 |
vedmnzqu42 | will-there-be-a-demonstration-of-my | Will there be a demonstration of my conlang before 2025? | null | 1,723,903,526,530 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,742,785,074 | NO | 0.581376 | 432.182238 |
ovna88jeg0 | will-russia-nuke-kursk-oblast-by-th | Will Russia nuke Kursk oblasť by the end of 2024? | null | 1,723,897,142,089 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,860,890,303 | NO | 0.01 | 5,589.06128 |
l7jzmkfymm | will-ontario-college-teachers-opseu-0oacvw90tz | Will Ontario college teachers (OPSEU CAAT) strike in the current round of bargaining? | null | 1,723,895,752,603 | 1,736,338,167,913 | 1,736,338,167,913 | NO | 0.657859 | 1,065.189902 |
8241zjlsky | will-civ-7-have-competent-ai | Will Civ 7 have competent AI? | null | 1,723,881,263,191 | 1,740,450,089,469 | 1,740,450,089,469 | NO | 0.100347 | 216.72378 |
dlpaf3ttiq | will-rich-sutton-and-eliezer-yudkow | Will Rich Sutton and Eliezer Yudkowsky debate at Manifest 2025 | null | 1,723,868,316,043 | 1,749,489,323,065 | 1,749,489,323,065 | NO | 0.072267 | 3,678.065338 |
3l52vj76jd | will-any-2024-senate-candidate-rais | Will any 2024 Senate candidate raise more than Adam Schiff? | null | 1,723,841,270,529 | 1,734,422,340,000 | 1,735,730,099,383 | YES | 0.959158 | 4,451.231931 |
bvpgs1ayps | will-republicans-win-any-safe-d-sta | Will Republicans win any Safe D state? | null | 1,723,841,099,509 | 1,735,711,140,000 | 1,736,101,840,697 | NO | 0.01 | 926.936275 |
whzt15w206 | will-democrats-win-any-safe-r-state-pife643nrw | Will Democrats win any Safe R state | null | 1,723,840,969,910 | 1,735,711,140,000 | 1,736,101,849,236 | NO | 0.018209 | 751 |
itc58j2dc5 | will-the-united-states-be-directly | Will the United States be directly involved in a war by the end of 2028? | null | 1,723,818,400,422 | 1,750,556,110,576 | 1,750,556,110,576 | YES | 0.903112 | 3,785.15915 |
1qriku6ak2 | will-a-la-liga-regular-season-match-4e6bn123bi | Will a La Liga regular season match be played in the United States this year? | null | 1,723,817,397,865 | 1,735,772,340,000 | 1,735,772,522,072 | NO | 0.01 | 10,740.152286 |
j2ffa79cik | will-disney-threaten-litigation-aga | Will Disney threaten litigation against Musk, X, or xAI this year over GenAI? | null | 1,723,816,885,609 | 1,735,770,547,972 | 1,735,770,547,972 | NO | 0.262018 | 186 |
r0mwsg9kjd | will-there-be-more-women-in-the-119 | Will there be more women in the 119th Congress than there were in the 118th Congress? | null | 1,723,795,893,623 | 1,735,977,540,000 | 1,736,199,999,258 | NO | 0.025985 | 636.059761 |
2q92p2pjb9 | will-there-be-a-separate-ukrainian | Will there be a separate Ukrainian incursion into Russia before the end of 2024? | null | 1,723,779,663,589 | 1,735,660,740,000 | 1,736,660,637,950 | NO | 0.071243 | 2,081.325871 |
tprzeiu04t | will-pausing-ai-developments-isnt-e-h9yy9ohsp8 | Will "Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,723,777,818,988 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,964,683,215 | YES | 0.133368 | 50 |
ndd6f1mex2 | will-curtis-yarvin-return-to-a-publ | Will Curtis Yarvin return to a public role with the Urbit project in the remainder of 2024? | null | 1,723,768,398,909 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,743,456,286,399 | YES | 0.778614 | 1,515.462714 |
f2i7ke1a20 | will-the-team-with-the-most-points | Will the team with the most points be crowned Premier League champions in 24-25 season? | null | 1,723,762,097,527 | 1,751,353,140,000 | 1,751,389,661,786 | YES | 0.989801 | 9,395.590648 |
ftb08gdk2k | will-there-be-an-mpox-pandemic-in-2 | Will there be an Mpox pandemic in 2024? | null | 1,723,752,587,313 | 1,735,754,871,637 | 1,735,754,871,637 | NO | 0.01 | 19,712.059266 |
0kgn9jha4x | will-apple-announce-a-smart-ring-in | Will Apple Announce a smart ring in 2024 | null | 1,723,751,754,193 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,831,999,551 | NO | 0.041454 | 7,612.473364 |
9tdclkisr1 | will-there-be-at-least-100-total-de | Will there be at least 100 total deaths in the US from Monkeypox by the end of 2024? | null | 1,723,749,049,087 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,735,167,319 | NO | 0.028782 | 8,211.670219 |
l2jmliiz14 | will-the-day-the-clown-cried-be-scr-z5b1bxoikw | Will 'The Day the Clown Cried' be screened by the Library of Congress before the end of 2024? | null | 1,723,740,395,597 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,189,238 | NO | 0.041335 | 383 |
vhyeoply3z | will-steamos-40-come-out-by-the-end | Will SteamOS 4.0 come out by the end of March 2025? | null | 1,723,738,863,154 | 1,743,544,740,000 | 1,743,684,143,746 | NO | 0.01 | 914.968262 |
7obd6nzemw | will-any-iphone-with-the-a12-soc-ip-1k5tc1yxd8 | Will any iPhone with the A12 SoC (iPhone XR, iPhone XS) receive updates to iOS 19 | null | 1,723,709,302,821 | 1,748,786,340,000 | 1,749,495,653,284 | NO | 0.48 | 2,717.000223 |
4aaszsmzp2 | will-there-be-credible-evidence-tha-ahcvpo9l6p | Will there be credible evidence that they UK could have unilaterally approved used of Storm Shadow missiles in Russia? | null | 1,723,671,261,921 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,738,351,683,553 | NO | 0.58841 | 2,953.568297 |
084hn7jra5 | will-there-be-a-free-website-that-c | Will there be a free website that converts names to social security numbers by end of year? | null | 1,723,665,999,036 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,738,835,422,538 | NO | 0.004836 | 32,725.838549 |
vhmltwx7rz | will-someone-sue-xai-or-x-this-year | Will someone sue xAI or X this year because Grok generated an image of them? | null | 1,723,649,893,294 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,724,036,893 | NO | 0.06505 | 3,214.785526 |
d9iww81vd1 | will-edmundo-gonzalez-be-sworn-in-a | Will Edmundo González be sworn in as Venezuela's president in January 2025? | null | 1,723,645,851,597 | 1,735,786,740,000 | 1,738,515,198,508 | NO | 0.02422 | 710 |
yxeqnm6zmj | will-stranded-astronauts-leave-the | Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024? | null | 1,723,645,849,482 | 1,737,003,540,000 | 1,738,480,277,797 | NO | 0.01 | 1,759.072349 |
1trxiufzfx | will-a-case-for-the-least-forgiving | Will "A Case for the Least Forgiving Take On Alignment" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,723,645,000,859 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,305,342,663 | NO | 0.111314 | 255 |
ro40f59eae | will-this-market-still-be-open-in-2 | Will this market still be open in 2026? | null | 1,723,622,050,525 | 1,735,686,060,000 | 1,737,754,292,736 | NO | 0.392963 | 75 |
9qcy0oa5qu | will-does-davidads-uploading-moonsh | Will "Does davidad's uploading moonshot work?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,723,613,244,454 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,487,127 | NO | 0.121553 | 150 |
k5ju351cjb | will-covid-hospitalizations-in-2024 | Will covid hospitalizations in 2024 reach 8 per 100000? | null | 1,723,593,490,015 | 1,735,545,540,000 | 1,735,831,461,706 | NO | 0.051085 | 355 |
f0h4zy9unc | will-the-uk-descend-in-to-civil-war | Will the UK descend in to civil war before 2025? | null | 1,723,587,881,283 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,735,723,726,507 | NO | 0.01 | 24,544.820377 |
5yyg7mn6pc | will-at-least-a-1000-people-be-char | Will a 1000 people or over be charged in connection with the UK riots in 2024? | null | 1,723,587,554,429 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,737,471,457,716 | NO | 0.257938 | 207.673274 |
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