id stringlengths 9 20 | slug stringlengths 4 54 | question stringlengths 1 120 | firstGroup float64 | createdTime int64 1,715B 1,752B | closeTime int64 1,717B 1,752B | resolvedTime int64 1,736B 1,752B | resolution stringclasses 2 values | resolutionProbability float64 0 1 | volume float64 0 6.93M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3ahrvezmjz | will-juul-products-be-sold-in-7-ele | Will Juul products be sold in 7 Eleven stores again before the end of 2024? | null | 1,719,105,879,726 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,736,970,108,263 | NO | 0.650319 | 41 |
1b4tsygmyz | will-china-block-anthropiccom-befor | Will China block anthropic.com before 2025? | null | 1,719,102,886,629 | 1,735,660,740,000 | 1,735,697,036,151 | NO | 0.126182 | 3,319.574672 |
44i7u9zrss | will-parametrically-retargetable-de | Will "Parametrically retargetable decision-makers t..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,719,076,591,638 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,391,388 | NO | 0.133368 | 50 |
d9ky3ohiul | will-the-next-gpt-correctly-tell-me | Will the next GPT correctly tell me the least integer whose square is between 15 and 30? | null | 1,719,074,509,959 | 1,740,698,798,665 | 1,740,698,798,665 | NO | 0.01 | 13,191.22976 |
trko4ot7yo | will-think-carefully-before-calling | Will "Think carefully before calling RL policies "..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,719,069,558,156 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,507,719 | NO | 0.111775 | 250 |
op371c8hpa | will-nasa-confirm-the-discovery-of-nwecx0u6y4 | Will NASA confirm the discovery of aliens before 2025? | null | 1,719,050,054,720 | 1,735,673,340,000 | 1,737,082,934,127 | NO | 0.013268 | 876 |
maa1e1p3ut | will-at-least-10-traders-of-this-ma | Will at least 10 traders of this market trade on all markets of at least 10 traders of this market? | null | 1,719,041,239,390 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,735,761,996,025 | NO | 0.070055 | 469.446583 |
azmdok9g05 | will-chat-gpt-remove-or-hide-their | Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at any point by the end of 2024? | null | 1,719,038,283,352 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,866,175 | NO | 0.059686 | 300 |
0jw26dwpsk | will-any-usa-state-ban-self-driving | Will any state in the USA ban self driving cars by the end of 2024? | null | 1,719,031,948,145 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,789,313,514 | NO | 0.018342 | 3,355 |
ia2u2bkhen | will-manifold-break-2000-engaged-us | Will Manifold break 2000 engaged users by the end of 2024? | null | 1,719,031,655,928 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,223,674 | NO | 0.01 | 32,070.448333 |
k2b1o0ift4 | will-louisianas-requirement-to-disp | Will Louisiana’s requirement to display the Ten Commandments in public school classrooms take effect as planned? | null | 1,719,018,057,474 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,736,463,818,906 | NO | 0.26463 | 1,989.930924 |
6nfdcra9w5 | will-donald-trump-win-the-republica-d6s2ags4m9 | Will Donald Trump NOT be inaugurated? | null | 1,719,009,322,679 | 1,737,476,219,363 | 1,737,476,219,363 | NO | 0.01 | 189,779.668901 |
o7qi393mlv | covidflu-combination-shot-readily-a | Covid+Flu combination vaccine readily available in US before 2025? | null | 1,719,007,729,279 | 1,738,969,380,381 | 1,738,969,380,381 | NO | 0.01 | 1,034.652453 |
nvbwctisu2 | will-chat-gpt-5-release-before-blue | Will Chat GPT 5 release before Blue Monday 2025? | null | 1,719,003,223,648 | 1,737,435,540,000 | 1,737,436,239,992 | NO | 0.01 | 30,412.849893 |
k73xp5zhic | will-openai-complete-another-100m-a | Will OpenAI complete another $100M+ acquisition in 2024 after Rockset deal? | null | 1,719,002,641,079 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,955,570,642 | NO | 0.027955 | 6,132.525081 |
4qa0o50msx | will-basil-zempilas-become-the-lead | Will Basil Zempilas become the leader of the Western Australian Liberal Party before the next state election in 2025? | null | 1,718,999,297,400 | 1,741,449,540,000 | 1,741,625,023,433 | NO | 0.01 | 133,262.080887 |
l259vlalw3 | will-a-state-in-the-usa-besides-ban-5ud39o7mro | Will a state in the USA ban Uber And/or Lyft outright for all counties and cities by the end of 2024? | null | 1,718,999,011,501 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,780,864,932 | NO | 0.188362 | 110 |
meyn2kusu8 | will-a-state-in-the-usa-ban-airbnb | Will a state in the USA ban Airbnb outright for all residences by the end of 2024? | null | 1,718,998,828,613 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,780,869,550 | NO | 0.170898 | 260.375666 |
p8yrs1bhob | will-noam-chomsky-live-to-see-jimmy | Will Noam Chomsky live to see Jimmy Carter's funeral? | null | 1,718,986,495,376 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,874,316 | YES | 0.978114 | 1,805.793198 |
gyq24xex42 | will-selfdriving-car-bets-make-the | Will "Self-driving car bets" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,718,980,784,457 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,401,288 | NO | 0.13931 | 5 |
e0i41e5ggk | will-russia-conduct-a-nuclear-weapo-le769kgyyp | Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test between 07.08.2024 and 07.09.2024? | null | 1,718,965,966,416 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,940,491,579 | NO | 0.030545 | 566 |
32xrt2i6kh | will-i-cure-my-aphantasia-by-2025 | Will I cure my aphantasia by 2025? | null | 1,718,958,348,561 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,715,555,313 | NO | 0.253995 | 1,430.496722 |
83j3j2wp1a | will-apple-be-the-largest-company-i | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of 2024? | null | 1,718,946,981,146 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,860,011,841 | YES | 0.99 | 4,824.759724 |
ueco12vgy6 | will-the-next-manifest-or-manifest | Will the next Manifest or Manifest offshoot event be held in California? | null | 1,718,936,683,734 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,872,264,136 | YES | 0.988736 | 1,432.381244 |
rj5h8ftovn | will-the-suns-magnetic-field-flip-i | Will the Sun's magnetic field flip in 2024? | null | 1,718,934,412,733 | 1,735,711,140,000 | 1,741,989,086,454 | NO | 0.653289 | 133.983658 |
iyiavvwols | will-an-ai-system-be-known-to-have-vb89s8zaok | Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2024? | null | 1,718,924,691,923 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,721,407,677 | NO | 0.05841 | 4,449.509289 |
wu8b3splyw | will-sheng-thao-be-the-mayor-of-oak | Will Sheng Thao be the Mayor of Oakland on January 31, 2025? | null | 1,718,906,535,569 | 1,738,396,740,000 | 1,738,829,871,220 | NO | 0.01 | 1,434.92884 |
2oeah2ixrb | will-donald-trump-and-joe-biden-sha | Will Donald Trump and Joe Biden shake hands three or more times in the year 2024? | null | 1,718,903,250,390 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,334,347 | NO | 0.041068 | 1,292.747077 |
on7hsgns6q | will-anna-van-der-breggen-win-anoth | Will Anna van der Breggen win another professional UCI Road cycling race by the end of the 2026 season? | null | 1,718,902,288,468 | 1,746,630,682,292 | 1,746,630,682,292 | YES | 0.99 | 9,101.529868 |
5bmgxr8q4s | will-harvard-make-an-official-state | Will Harvard make an official statement about a public matter unrelated to its core function by 6/27/25? | null | 1,718,901,219,633 | 1,751,083,140,000 | 1,751,197,653,038 | NO | 0.010521 | 21,528.346801 |
pf8ulm7c4g | is-claude-35-a-distilled-or-quantiz | Is Claude 3.5 Sonnet a distilled or quantized version of a larger model? | null | 1,718,893,815,048 | 1,738,482,628,445 | 1,738,482,628,445 | NO | 0.05 | 522.116851 |
lp32u8w56i | -nvidia-to-200-before-the-end-of-20 | 📈 $NVDA (Nvidia) to $200 before the end of 2024? | null | 1,718,891,530,067 | 1,735,660,740,000 | 1,736,547,340,665 | NO | 0.006596 | 3,117.640467 |
1qfi3kg9ca | will-another-state-besides-louisian | Will another state besides Louisiana require the Ten Commandment in public school classrooms by the end of 2024? | null | 1,718,865,786,175 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,872,269,839 | NO | 0.112614 | 324 |
pg4tcgfip7 | will-the-houthis-sink-a-third-ship | Will the Houthis sink a third ship before 2025? | null | 1,718,835,899,521 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,005,897 | NO | 0.019288 | 11,846.264562 |
2q1w20wvvh | will-more-than-10-acres-of-land-sur | Will 10+ acres of land surrounding the Tumangan River be sold from Russia to China by the end of 2024? | null | 1,718,819,286,621 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,872,275,373 | NO | 0.124869 | 190 |
ny3yqghsjo | will-ilya-sutskevers-company-ssi-re | Will Ilya Sutskever’s company SSI release a model by EOY 2024? | null | 1,718,818,929,050 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,763,995,116 | NO | 0.048849 | 994.815325 |
oig0qznknx | will-ilya-sutskevers-company-ssi-op | Will Ilya Sutskever’s company SSI open source its models in 2024? | null | 1,718,818,776,727 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,764,009,582 | NO | 0.074532 | 455.204226 |
kcmdpcoyrs | will-nvidias-stock-price-fall-more | Will Nvidia’s stock price fall more than 30% in less than 10 days before 2025? | null | 1,718,807,233,474 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,745,105,398 | NO | 0.01406 | 8,107 |
ze179ajynt | will-nvda-have-the-largest-market-c-wxiymyz882 | Will $NVDA have the largest market cap EOY 2024? | null | 1,718,799,067,323 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,735,761,130,399 | NO | 0.010108 | 12,884.251239 |
a0itohu0er | macron-activates-article-16-of-the | Macron activates article 16 of the French constitution (exceptional powers) before the end of 2024 | null | 1,718,792,392,117 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,717,782,147 | NO | 0.054631 | 330.609885 |
6yczpqovr5 | will-there-be-at-least-3-players-on | Will there be at least 3 players on the leaderboard all named "Rationalussy" on diep.io by EOY 2026? | null | 1,718,763,514,073 | 1,743,482,461,797 | 1,743,482,461,797 | YES | 0.977218 | 16,385 |
vzh5vdx2p2 | are-there-any-manifolders-active-on | Are there any Manifolders active on Bittensor? | null | 1,718,754,220,909 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,734,313,274 | NO | 0.770046 | 85 |
a8vs1in69i | will-bittensor-tao-reach-an-alltime | Will Bittensor (TAO) reach an all-time high again in 2024? | null | 1,718,753,967,831 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,734,201,561 | NO | 0.125318 | 7,213.929924 |
xvxcnh4kxi | will-near-reach-11-in-2024 | Will NEAR reach $11 in 2024? | null | 1,718,753,924,480 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,708,958,282 | NO | 0.000247 | 27,253.627682 |
s1b6tvcpv9 | will-malaysia-or-another-country-jo | Will Malaysia OR another country join BRICS in 2024, after Thailand's announcement? | null | 1,718,736,452,199 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,736,137,364,349 | NO | 0.075487 | 4,696.096138 |
r3c29h8106 | will-thailand-formally-join-brics-i | Will Thailand formally join BRICS in 2024? | null | 1,718,736,171,305 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,857,114,044 | NO | 0.040435 | 7,257.576135 |
2k8v6hw8pi | will-tesla-prevail-in-its-suit-agai | Will Tesla prevail in its suit against Matthews International over battery trade secrets? | null | 1,718,734,533,466 | 1,746,687,974,462 | 1,746,687,974,462 | NO | 0.033923 | 2,291.614366 |
toi4wk169h | will-nvidia-be-the-largest-company-7kj1eys2yc | Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on Juneteenth 2025? | null | 1,718,734,182,747 | 1,750,346,656,865 | 1,750,346,656,865 | NO | 0.008404 | 5,238.24095 |
porynikoaa | will-barcelona-beat-real-madrid-el-ug5lamvlkq | Will Barcelona beat Real Madrid? | El Clásico | null | 1,718,721,109,844 | 1,746,990,241,107 | 1,746,990,241,107 | YES | 0.990955 | 49,712.639454 |
utrhkfsii3 | will-humans-rent-their-bodies-out-t | Will humans rent their bodies out to AI? | null | 1,718,714,757,550 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,736,285,206,216 | NO | 0.01 | 897.872448 |
du2tane7kn | 3-big-ai-companies-lose-10-of-marke | Will 3 Big AI Companies lose 10% of market cap in a single day (AI Bubble Pop) by 2025? | null | 1,718,698,170,962 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,736,202,673,280 | NO | 0.052168 | 11,268.391122 |
9n8ehxoxzr | will-alan-greenspan-pass-away-befor | Will Alan Greenspan pass away before the end of 2024? | null | 1,718,693,027,419 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,789,273,229 | NO | 0.01 | 944.354952 |
yhtdqmm84m | will-i-be-an-author-on-a-paper-acce | Will I be an author on a paper accepted to an academic conference in 2024? | null | 1,718,679,465,204 | 1,735,703,820,000 | 1,735,725,842,628 | YES | 0.964068 | 727.359107 |
kfgb7ekvyf | will-assassins-creed-shadows-have-a | Will Assassin's Creed Shadows have a Metacritic score of 85 or higher as of February 16th, 2025? | null | 1,718,668,928,724 | 1,739,768,340,000 | 1,739,806,104,947 | NO | 0.135566 | 328.692171 |
42pfwtzd5e | will-there-be-a-decision-issued-in-3k0p4crwxz | Will there be a decision issued in the NJ vs Norcross lawsuit by the end of 2024? | null | 1,718,657,646,870 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,337,990 | NO | 0.011936 | 810 |
l69z529whu | will-there-be-a-decision-issued-in-oabg5la44k | Will there be a decision issued in the NJ vs Norcross lawsuit by the end of May 2025? | null | 1,718,657,614,320 | 1,748,750,340,000 | 1,748,751,498,712 | NO | 0.01 | 894.987437 |
r0hd6k9cdb | will-lightcone-infrastructurelesswr | Will "Lightcone Infrastructure/LessWrong is looking..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,718,649,694,476 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,305,389,582 | NO | 0.121593 | 151 |
ico5q2ix7x | will-there-be-a-decision-issued-in-trjek9s81y | Will there be a decision issued in the USA vs Adobe lawsuit by the end of May 2025? | null | 1,718,646,713,980 | 1,748,750,340,000 | 1,748,751,499,662 | NO | 0.038477 | 444.41066 |
nxf4rczq3m | will-there-be-a-decision-issued-in | Will there be a decision issued in the USA vs Adobe lawsuit by the end of 2024? | null | 1,718,646,680,384 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,872,294,193 | NO | 0.149658 | 141 |
asr300wjka | will-apple-release-an-apple-watch-p | Will Apple release an Apple Watch powered with Apple Intelligence before the end of 2024? | null | 1,718,630,348,261 | 1,735,649,940,000 | 1,735,999,408,410 | NO | 0.025282 | 14,601.304871 |
8n8prosolx | will-apple-release-a-homepod-powere | Will Apple release a HomePod powered with Apple Intelligence before the end of 2024? | null | 1,718,622,384,432 | 1,735,649,940,000 | 1,735,999,412,956 | NO | 0.031586 | 60,654.607318 |
dreduy5725 | will-dominion-energy-d-announce-int | Will Dominion Energy ($D) announce intent to build an ESBWR at North Anna Nuclear Generating Station in 2024? | null | 1,718,617,479,327 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,737,309,588,494 | NO | 0.03528 | 5,100.304078 |
djwi35suoj | will-twitterx-revive-the-vine-app-b | Will Twitter/X revive the Vine app before the end of 2024? | null | 1,718,601,552,970 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,952,955,716 | NO | 0.053119 | 367 |
m5v1lm2br8 | will-robert-winnett-be-employed-as | Will Robert Winnett be employed as editor of the Washington Post at any time in 2024? | null | 1,718,593,103,253 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,766,751,488 | NO | 0.049165 | 4,502.330609 |
8wfxlumfyo | will-discord-announced-an-ai-integr | Will Discord announced an official in-app AI integration or partnership of any kind before the end of 2024? | null | 1,718,516,093,223 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,952,974,463 | YES | 0.815394 | 116 |
gmrv39m1ax | will-marjorie-taylor-greene-have-a | Will Marjorie Taylor Greene have a heart attack before the end of May 12th 2025? | null | 1,718,515,301,467 | 1,747,108,740,000 | 1,747,402,406,841 | NO | 0.01 | 1,046.343314 |
lv41nqg73m | will-rock-paper-scissors-poker-appe | Will "rock paper scissors poker" appear on Google Trends in 2024? | null | 1,718,511,663,805 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,771,253,377 | NO | 0.040047 | 22,284.015294 |
lc0z7npcjm | will-macos-sequoia-15-be-the-last-m | Will macOS Sequoia (15) be the last major version of macOS to support Macs with Intel CPU’s? | null | 1,718,496,980,142 | 1,748,786,340,000 | 1,749,495,640,242 | NO | 0.698688 | 2,975 |
pjwjhjkf6h | will-a-wellknown-public-figure-clai | Will a well-known public figure claim to have had a verified extraterrestrial encounter by the end of 2024? | null | 1,718,486,279,166 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,737,049,324,890 | NO | 0.123945 | 194 |
f72kfskfnj | will-a-sitting-member-of-congress-d | Will a sitting member of Congress die while in office before the end of 2025? | null | 1,718,473,336,546 | 1,741,273,750,411 | 1,741,273,750,411 | YES | 0.99 | 963.503786 |
s8rcs13fpv | will-gothamchess-levy-rozman-earn-a | Will GothamChess (Levy Rozman) earn a grandmaster norm in 2024? | null | 1,718,452,496,334 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,723,952,811 | NO | 0.010208 | 10,270.045935 |
vdbnbisg5y | will-the-authorities-trace-back-evi | Will the authorities trace back evidence from the events of 6/21/24 back to @CarsonGale? | null | 1,718,439,110,756 | 1,721,113,140,000 | 1,743,562,875,039 | NO | 0.174489 | 120 |
n45a0wht3s | will-enzo-mascara-stay-at-chelsea-f | Will Chelsea F.C place high enough to get into European football in the 2024/25 Premier League Season? 🇬🇧 | null | 1,718,412,949,828 | 1,748,229,488,862 | 1,748,229,488,862 | YES | 0.99 | 12,878.289495 |
yla0vm4u6l | will-spacex-dragon-rescue-boeing-st | Will SpaceX Dragon Rescue Boeing Starliner Astronauts? | null | 1,718,390,993,641 | 1,742,338,194,792 | 1,742,338,194,792 | YES | 0.991175 | 53,963.291344 |
b6h3ow8oj9 | will-deadpool-3-achieve-90-score-on | Will Deadpool 3 achieve 9.0+ score on imdb.com? | null | 1,718,381,316,178 | 1,738,472,340,000 | 1,739,570,886,214 | NO | 0.01 | 13,182.426683 |
ckza4h48k3 | will-x-fka-twitter-reverse-their-pr | Will X (FKA Twitter) reverse their Private Like policy by end of 2024? | null | 1,718,371,776,856 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,735,898,378,316 | NO | 0.023737 | 9,706.820265 |
zebcm4fq2b | will-another-israeli-minister-resig-j8jrun16ee | Will another Israeli minister resign from the government before 2025? | null | 1,718,366,303,851 | 1,735,713,634,809 | 1,735,713,634,809 | NO | 0.02114 | 8,988.779355 |
mnbt7uw9gt | will-jeanmarie-le-pen-reach-100-yea | Will Jean-Marie Le Pen reach 100 years old? | null | 1,718,353,741,936 | 1,737,242,111,061 | 1,737,242,111,061 | NO | 0.01 | 968.90445 |
4kyz76eu2l | will-humane-be-sold-or-acquired-in | Will Hu.ma.ne be sold or acquired in 2024 | null | 1,718,335,817,154 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,948,340,041 | NO | 0.060325 | 2,950 |
q5ecb9bti8 | will-i-be-an-anthropic-employee-on | Will I be an Anthropic employee on May 1st, 2025? | null | 1,718,334,622,407 | 1,746,169,140,000 | 1,747,110,164,325 | YES | 0.973826 | 1,118.890326 |
aoz7g7jqvy | will-noam-chomsky-live-to-see-an-is | Will Noam Chomsky live to see an Israel-Palestine ceasefire? | null | 1,718,329,896,259 | 1,742,184,389,875 | 1,742,184,389,875 | YES | 0.982718 | 52,300.369529 |
s8WP59ycmIY2y7xxzliP | will-manifold-add-retroactive-close | Will Manifold add retroactive close times / trade rollbacks in 2024? | null | 1,718,317,723,904 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,771,261,618 | NO | 0.01374 | 90,972.908759 |
fkJ8pZaDB4xtF2QW5Jum | 100k-or-more-covid19-deaths-in-the | 100k or more COVID-19 deaths in the US from 12/30/2023-1/4/2025? | null | 1,718,301,147,271 | 1,736,139,540,000 | 1,738,854,687,989 | NO | 0.010015 | 896 |
ZQfF442C6yWWLqbFUvmr | will-transcript-and-brief-response | Will "Transcript and Brief Response to Twitter Conv..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,718,293,976,603 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,413,767 | NO | 0.133368 | 50 |
gbZVih4Lz9h7zPO4p6Uv | will-elon-musk-rescue-the-starliner | Will Elon Musk rescue the Starliner astronauts from the International Space Station? | null | 1,718,283,835,053 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,738,204,050 | NO | 0.04882 | 8,049.336035 |
4EuHVyZITJKlSpyXFYDq | metaculus-will-the-highest-elo-llm | [Metaculus] Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024? | null | 1,718,278,378,190 | 1,735,837,200,000 | 1,735,905,910,086 | NO | 0.01 | 9,608.470629 |
yDZRFHXyPQC1fpi8uESM | will-civil-war-receive-a-best-pictu | Will "Civil War" receive a Best Picture nomination at the 2025 Academy Awards? | null | 1,718,256,012,672 | 1,737,740,899,565 | 1,737,740,899,565 | NO | 0.01 | 1,258.827967 |
e8658S8Jl257zxcCAAQL | will-ai-presidents-discuss-ai-align | Will "AI presidents discuss AI alignment agendas" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,718,252,381,653 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,424,828 | NO | 0.1 | 388.832915 |
9R6eKGL5zrtggwQjFz5r | will-two-or-more-category-5-hurrica | Will two or more hurricanes enter as or strengthen to Cat 5 in the Gulf of Mexico by Jan.2025? | null | 1,718,246,661,834 | 1,735,793,940,000 | 1,736,778,747,227 | NO | 0.02456 | 20,200.809022 |
P9aqXLWSILPN2GSwfubA | will-hunter-biden-spend-a-day-in-ja | Will Hunter Biden spend a day in jail before the end of July 2025? | null | 1,718,239,000,296 | 1,750,827,861,948 | 1,750,827,861,948 | NO | 0.01499 | 17,407.072613 |
C5KQGLY0FvoJkdcefpxy | will-elon-musk-remove-the-ability-t | Will Elon Musk remove the ability to Delete Poasts from X.com within one year? | null | 1,718,226,192,942 | 1,749,794,340,000 | 1,750,702,159,091 | NO | 0.01 | 12,397.272815 |
OcmDZK8BjdEBuGeHf3zO | will-lessonline-2025-and-manifest-2 | Will LessOnline 2025 and Manifest 2025 be within two weeks of each other? | null | 1,718,224,939,896 | 1,750,134,615,321 | 1,750,134,615,321 | YES | 0.996164 | 14,722.044734 |
kG6MWZFyXbJQv6Sxa9wt | will-there-be-another-jimmy-carter | Will there be another Jimmy Carter rabbit incident exactly one day after the next presidential inauguration? | null | 1,718,221,915,047 | 1,737,657,544,029 | 1,737,657,544,029 | NO | 0.010106 | 904.024004 |
IhkhUaldypVIXsQ4Bzmy | will-if-interpretability-research-g | Will "If interpretability research goes well, it ma..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,718,220,412,082 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,380,729 | NO | 0.14 | 0 |
QH8XyTxB3PJGTofBjSCx | will-my-technooptimism-by-vitalik-b | Will "My techno-optimism [By Vitalik Buterin]" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,718,218,122,745 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,586,793 | NO | 0.099408 | 400 |
juq8iTXz3YSeCIdP49bP | will-gpt4opus-report-50-score-on-ar | Will GPT4/Opus report >50% score on ARC in 2024? | null | 1,718,195,177,074 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,735,741,157,684 | NO | 0.07299 | 25,757.139919 |
kK99nBWM206rRcENuJEJ | will-there-be-a-story-about-jailbre | Will there be a story about jailbreaking used in emails within the next year? | null | 1,718,187,603,184 | 1,749,682,740,000 | 1,749,917,909,239 | NO | 0.01 | 10,397.24293 |
Ox0hJxUj91r391iIhjug | will-at-least-3-manifold-bots-adver | Will at least 3 Manifold bots advertise their performance on
manifold-baseline-curated before the end of 2024? | null | 1,718,187,038,526 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,736,430,353,953 | NO | 0.317428 | 665 |
BJmoSlApTGPcScEqjeFW | will-marcel-hirscher-be-on-any-worl | Will Marcel Hirscher (NL/AT) be on any World Cup podium in the 2024/2025 ski season? | null | 1,718,180,452,702 | 1,745,755,622,356 | 1,745,755,622,356 | NO | 0.064974 | 2,899.347795 |
XphUSU4DyRYPEyhlMJMN | will-amazon-release-a-trailer-for-i | Will Amazon release a trailer for its upcoming Warhammer show by the end of the year? | null | 1,718,171,081,818 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,708,659,096 | NO | 0.642253 | 35 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.