id stringlengths 9 20 | slug stringlengths 4 54 | question stringlengths 1 120 | firstGroup float64 | createdTime int64 1,715B 1,752B | closeTime int64 1,717B 1,752B | resolvedTime int64 1,736B 1,752B | resolution stringclasses 2 values | resolutionProbability float64 0 1 | volume float64 0 6.93M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
qv7fk7rmbx | will-china-execute-any-taiwanese-se | Will China execute any Taiwanese separatists in 2024? | null | 1,720,320,333,753 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,718,832,616 | NO | 0.039774 | 4,513 |
q7ohwpperj | will-reducing-sycophancy-and-improv | Will "Reducing sycophancy and improving honesty via..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,720,304,985,723 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,305,353,203 | NO | 0.138487 | 11 |
bpf4tw7abg | chance-i-get-back-with-my-ex-within | Chance I get back with my ex within 6 months | null | 1,720,303,425,333 | 1,736,402,340,000 | 1,739,858,724,209 | NO | 0.017379 | 1,521.267978 |
86foz77haq | will-alexey-guzey-find-a-new-job-or | Will Alexey guzey find a new job or girlfriend before qiaochu yuan does | null | 1,720,301,812,104 | 1,744,208,065,056 | 1,744,208,065,056 | YES | 0.913538 | 235 |
6unavmpfjd | will-we-learn-that-joe-biden-has-pa | Will we learn that Joe Biden has Parkinson's disease before the end of 2024? | null | 1,720,298,970,505 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,736,406,441,514 | NO | 0.012606 | 63,144.461394 |
tujum5aaiy | will-anyone-at-reform-uk-be-arreste | Will anyone at Reform UK be arrested for fielding fake / AI candidates in the 2024 election? | null | 1,720,291,022,749 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,735,714,940,764 | NO | 0.055251 | 4,488.431127 |
v4rpc9p9my | will-alexey-guzey-find-a-new-girlfr | Will Alexey guzey find a new girlfriend by EOY 2025 | null | 1,720,284,837,035 | 1,736,716,122,712 | 1,736,716,122,712 | YES | 0.903154 | 50,098.38682 |
0y8c9giyq3 | will-spacexs-starship-cross-the-int-v015ljpg00 | Will SpaceX's Starship cross the International Date Line by the end of Q2 2025. | null | 1,720,275,137,001 | 1,751,351,432,304 | 1,751,351,432,304 | NO | 0.009791 | 14,699.856315 |
pi9pfecmbw | will-openai-the-battle-of-the-board | Will "OpenAI: The Battle of the Board" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,720,250,304,008 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,305,383,830 | NO | 0.151798 | 20 |
x5hcor4ibd | will-manifold-add-a-way-for-creator-cnxy569d74 | Will Manifold add a way for creators to initialize binary markets at non-50% probabilities in the UI? (by July 2025) | null | 1,720,226,577,132 | 1,751,349,540,000 | 1,751,374,926,990 | NO | 0.029789 | 5,094.749228 |
cgb6ifvfzb | will-andrew-tate-aka-top-g-be-spott | Will Andrew Tate aka Top G be spotted outside of the EU in 2024, after Romanian judge ruled he must stay within EU? | null | 1,720,219,615,591 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,955,643,817 | NO | 0.034587 | 8,217.422367 |
lbw6ff5ksk | will-i-get-a-boyfriend-before-i-get | Will I get a boyfriend before I get an award on the USAMO? | null | 1,720,201,816,629 | 1,737,252,423,372 | 1,737,252,423,372 | YES | 0.99 | 8,312.405067 |
lqgl3op27t | will-tesla-cease-to-be-the-most-val-w9d4l5y1al | Will Tesla cease to be the most valuable automaker by market cap for any amount of time before the end of 2024? | null | 1,720,200,936,812 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,721,434,221 | NO | 0.033683 | 640 |
doawhtg0u3 | will-i-make-imo-2025-ce26w5jwer | Will I make IMO 2025? | null | 1,720,199,483,906 | 1,745,020,005,444 | 1,745,020,005,444 | NO | 0.019589 | 21,432.049245 |
9ag1zt93jk | will-i-make-rmm-2025 | Will I make RMM 2025? | null | 1,720,199,318,603 | 1,737,343,872,847 | 1,737,343,872,847 | YES | 0.99 | 1,035.776139 |
pg3tssamkz | will-stephen-hsu-visit-agi-house-by | Will Stephen Hsu visit AGI House by EOY 2027 | null | 1,720,113,951,883 | 1,742,164,398,490 | 1,742,164,398,490 | YES | 0.52359 | 5 |
89el6ac6sm | will-the-2024-atlantic-hurricane-se-ed3zw26k1p | Will the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be more active than the 2024 Pacific typhoon season? | null | 1,720,108,031,533 | 1,725,260,340,000 | 1,735,730,020,118 | NO | 0.177431 | 796.166539 |
crzzsm1idb | will-the-2024-atlantic-hurricane-se | Will the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be more active than the 2024 Pacific hurricane season? | null | 1,720,107,970,551 | 1,725,260,340,000 | 1,735,729,986,396 | YES | 0.203008 | 444.060167 |
9gbe8pda0j | will-a-president-die-on-the-fourth | Will a USA president die on the fourth of July in 2024 or 2025? | null | 1,720,080,345,633 | 1,751,685,302,201 | 1,751,685,302,201 | NO | 0.01 | 2,741.152974 |
gfj6n3l5o2 | will-any-one-of-the-34-trump-feloni | Will any one of the 34 Trump felonies in NYC be overturned by the end of June 2025? | null | 1,720,047,290,351 | 1,751,327,907,892 | 1,751,327,907,892 | NO | 0.01 | 1,836.470924 |
jqowkyoyzr | will-any-one-of-the-34-criminal-cha | Will any one of the 34 Trump felonies in NYC be overturned by the end of 2024? | null | 1,720,047,239,797 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,743,744 | NO | 0.01 | 1,000.826334 |
1qcmennj3v | will-bronny-james-score-10-points-i | Will Bronny James score 10 total points in the 2024-25 season (not inclusive of preseason) | null | 1,720,039,251,038 | 1,738,472,172,944 | 1,738,472,172,944 | YES | 0.99 | 1,295.135887 |
jyvbcs9o14 | will-starship-launch-at-least-2-sta | Will Starship launch at least 2 Starlink satellites to orbit in 2024 | null | 1,720,027,469,823 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,736,377,174,717 | NO | 0.012427 | 29,797.593232 |
0try236b7a | will-presidential-immunity-be-rever | Will presidential immunity be reverted by a constitutional amendment in 2024? | null | 1,720,019,101,300 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,720,980,080 | NO | 0.010513 | 14,409.115445 |
tnjuup1zzr | will-grant-applications-and-grand-n | Will "Grant applications and grand narratives" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,719,961,706,388 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,306,068,034 | NO | 0.14 | 0 |
ioxcfdmhdr | will-grant-applications-and-grand-n | Will "Grant applications and grand narratives" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,719,961,706,385 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,305,306,934 | NO | 0.1217 | 150 |
6kel5pf5su | will-i-recommend-using-aws-lambda-f | Will I recommend using AWS Lambda for your B2B startup? | null | 1,719,960,324,159 | 1,740,902,340,000 | 1,741,373,974,787 | NO | 0.358562 | 2,194.470747 |
5uvzuytwcn | will-ufo-betting-put-up-or-shut-up | Will "UFO Betting: Put Up or Shut Up" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,719,947,613,863 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,443,852 | NO | 0.09 | 591.788712 |
3m3j2g6m7e | will-i-qualify-for-mop-in-2025 | Will I qualify for MOP in 2025? | null | 1,719,944,795,227 | 1,738,892,889,038 | 1,738,892,889,038 | NO | 0.423561 | 1,158.456337 |
u0v0oxyn12 | will-karen-read-be-tried-again-afte | Will Karen Read be tried again after the jury deadlocked and a mistrial was declared on July 1, 2024? | null | 1,719,942,642,650 | 1,745,353,441,242 | 1,745,353,441,242 | YES | 0.99 | 8,966.993118 |
okyhckj1iz | will-an-h5n1-mrna-vaccine-be-develo | Will an H5N1 mRNA vaccine be developed and enter "late stage" human trials (or wider release) by July 2025? | null | 1,719,942,169,197 | 1,751,405,032,598 | 1,751,405,032,598 | NO | 0.010143 | 101,077.552976 |
nkihpxibhu | will-the-mystery-of-the-capital-hil | Will the mystery of the Capital Hill Pipe Bomber from right before January 6th be "solved" before May 2025? | null | 1,719,940,561,773 | 1,746,169,140,000 | 1,746,169,298,862 | NO | 0.050125 | 363 |
mhc9kexdsp | will-the-boston-celtics-be-sold-for | Will the Boston Celtics be sold for more than $5 billion by year end 2025? | null | 1,719,921,683,138 | 1,742,481,186,191 | 1,742,481,186,191 | YES | 0.99 | 9,867.461964 |
qbq48lynif | will-either-the-house-or-the-senate | Will either the House or the Senate vote on a constitutional amendment overturning Trump v. United States? | null | 1,719,911,355,359 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,690,039,173 | NO | 0.110816 | 4,448.564253 |
slf8viq4dt | will-the-number-of-manifold-league | Will the number of Manifold league types have changed at any point in time before 2025? | null | 1,719,883,452,803 | 1,735,772,340,000 | 1,738,719,307,346 | NO | 0.010006 | 895 |
ot6fxz4he8 | will-openai-api-base-models-are-not | Will "OpenAI API base models are not sycophantic, a..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,719,869,406,997 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,988,126 | NO | 0.127181 | 100 |
yh9gl5qtom | will-a-supreme-court-justice-be-imp | Will a Supreme Court justice be impeached this year? | null | 1,719,863,969,466 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,761,700,357 | NO | 0.016553 | 8,392.987147 |
ddklry9076 | will-sam-altmans-sister-annie-altma | Will "Sam Altman's sister, Annie Altman, claims Sam..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,719,822,879,930 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,962,619 | NO | 0.081263 | 1,105 |
zfi78oaapm | will-the-sohu-ai-chip-ship-to-custo | Will the Sohu AI chip ship to customers within a year? | null | 1,719,813,935,549 | 1,750,834,740,000 | 1,751,472,963,606 | NO | 0.026083 | 6,053.783479 |
wbf3hxvnlq | will-fernando-alonso-receive-an-aut | Will Fernando Alonso receive an automatic race ban before March 24th 2025? | null | 1,719,811,208,519 | 1,742,885,940,000 | 1,742,913,685,580 | NO | 0.01 | 1,004.936939 |
cd9xhpsbs0 | will-ai-agents-be-able-to-code-a-sm | Will AI agents be able to regularly code small features for us in a year? | null | 1,719,802,886,715 | 1,751,439,540,000 | 1,751,659,859,290 | YES | 0.98831 | 489,743.324299 |
axdguyaqbb | will-overwatch-2-implement-a-6v6-ga | Will Overwatch 2 implement a 6v6 game mode outside of the Arcade at any point in 2024? | null | 1,719,793,397,726 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,721,684,196 | YES | 0.948618 | 355.245251 |
en29wk5qxy | will-joseph-anderson-release-his-hi-kwsbpb9idd | Will Joseph Anderson release his highly anticipated Witcher 3 review before the end of August? | null | 1,719,782,486,381 | 1,743,782,603,553 | 1,743,782,603,553 | YES | 0.947987 | 2,939.457752 |
y1mrv7fdys | will-joseph-anderson-release-his-hi | Will Joseph Anderson release his highly anticipated Witcher 3 review before the end of Blue Monday? | null | 1,719,782,314,074 | 1,737,349,140,000 | 1,737,349,808,867 | NO | 0.01 | 904.937072 |
x3t4y1cd05 | will-beff-jezos-renounce-eacc-by-eo | Will Beff Jezos renounce e/acc by EOY? | null | 1,719,759,071,374 | 1,735,642,740,000 | 1,735,824,871,631 | NO | 0.072829 | 324.469178 |
a9olurgcmw | will-tame-impala-release-a-consumer | Will Tame Impala release a consumer analog synthesizer in 2024? | null | 1,719,757,679,239 | 1,738,472,340,000 | 1,738,482,548,949 | NO | 0.567403 | 15 |
i7v26sr47v | will-notes-on-teaching-in-prison-ma | Will "Notes on Teaching in Prison" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,719,755,071,413 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,577,510 | NO | 0.14 | 0 |
dei4ssmcwz | will-biden-finish-his-term | Will Biden finish his term? | null | 1,719,729,720,157 | 1,737,370,740,000 | 1,737,403,122,033 | YES | 0.990211 | 6,933,547.153207 |
e2vmrasfyn | will-interactive-brokers-prediction | Will Interactive Broker's prediction market platform have $100mm in volume in 2024? | null | 1,719,721,733,939 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,771,228,496 | YES | 0.980018 | 87,650.670754 |
bgouw4kyjs | will-81kilograms-be-regularly-takin | Will 81kilograms be regularly taking estrogen by June 2025? | null | 1,719,709,259,150 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,736,291,325,610 | NO | 0.392298 | 350 |
h9isquulpn | will-the-witching-hour-make-the-top | Will "The Witching Hour" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,719,703,430,526 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,330,018 | NO | 0.161284 | 25 |
ug7m9a14l9 | will-you-can-just-spontaneously-cal | Will "You can just spontaneously call people you ha..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,719,679,847,345 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,305,302,577 | NO | 0.180786 | 233 |
ra03enxo4p | will-sam-darnold-start-10-or-more-g | Will Sam Darnold start 10 or more games at QB in 2024? | null | 1,719,628,376,379 | 1,737,521,940,000 | 1,737,568,346,732 | YES | 0.99 | 12,414.149184 |
r7r2ouulf7 | will-dr-disrespect-sign-a-contract | Will Dr Disrespect sign a contract with Kick by the end of June 2025? | null | 1,719,622,905,658 | 1,751,327,523,034 | 1,751,327,523,034 | NO | 0.01 | 2,216.59355 |
97akxlkxz2 | at-the-end-of-juneteenth-2025-june | At the end of Juneteenth 2025 (June 19) will Manifold have sold enough Mana in the last 30 days to buy one bitcoin? | null | 1,719,620,957,495 | 1,750,391,940,000 | 1,750,541,418,457 | NO | 0.01 | 1,475.443765 |
3ef882zwka | will-slasher-win-his-bet-with-dan-t | Will the Dr Disrespect chat logs with the minor leak by the end of the year? | null | 1,719,620,588,230 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,953,042,063 | NO | 0.104112 | 195 |
2oxzokvgcb | will-jimmy-carter-out-live-biden | Will jimmy carter out live Biden? | null | 1,719,609,382,080 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,725,491,965 | NO | 0.01 | 1,825.710222 |
ntzm68c91n | will-explaining-grokking-through-ci | Will "Explaining grokking through circuit efficiency" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,719,576,540,686 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,404,429 | NO | 0.10324 | 350 |
ym66bnks5l | will-manifold-implement-some-form-o | Will Manifold implement some form of automatic growth of invested mana? | null | 1,719,566,261,289 | 1,749,453,213,263 | 1,749,453,213,263 | NO | 0.035381 | 72,046.317562 |
d8f53u6t4d | will-conor-mcgregor-announce-a-run | Will Conor McGregor Announce a Run for Political Office in Ireland by the End of 2025? | null | 1,719,560,440,576 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,736,585,550,784 | NO | 0.03 | 567.054685 |
y6mvojbc6l | if-trump-is-elected-will-the-2023-i | If Trump is elected, will the 2023 Israel-Gaza war be ongoing in June 2025? | null | 1,719,520,983,180 | 1,748,847,540,000 | 1,749,104,910,010 | YES | 0.99 | 984.856962 |
y5x8hbu6ot | will-givewell-donations-be-higher-t | Will GiveWell donations be higher this year than last year? | null | 1,719,519,628,735 | 1,738,396,740,000 | 1,748,706,792,547 | YES | 0.5 | 0 |
sjrnt2meeh | will-givewell-fund-an-airelated-int | Will GiveWell fund an AI-related intervention this year? | null | 1,719,519,530,678 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,761,588,597 | NO | 0.035018 | 6,407.375402 |
ztomkvqqc2 | will-there-be-proof-that-joe-biden | Will there be proof that Joe Biden is using stimulant drugs (besides caffeine) during the 2024 campaign? | null | 1,719,509,987,351 | 1,730,879,940,000 | 1,738,448,339,443 | NO | 0.020096 | 88,292.604658 |
trlk0kfl32 | will-why-not-just-build-weak-ai-too | Will "Why Not Just... Build Weak AI Tools For AI Al..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,719,502,747,141 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,358,882 | NO | 0.238041 | 101 |
paitses2f9 | will-china-have-invaded-taiwan-by-d | Will 🇨🇳 China have invaded Taiwan 🇹🇼 by December 31st? 🏳️ | null | 1,719,493,947,804 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,738,479,989,950 | NO | 0.03098 | 2,238.120667 |
ytpiuad0nj | did-the-rms-titanic-sink-because-of | Did the RMS Titanic sink because of an iceberg? | null | 1,719,483,797,021 | 1,744,646,340,000 | 1,750,769,776,272 | YES | 0.952183 | 561.644998 |
eegbr9bc7i | will-donald-trump-express-remorse-t | Will Donald Trump express remorse that Bolivian General Juan José Zúñiga‘s coup attempt failed? | null | 1,719,452,822,039 | 1,735,766,178,287 | 1,735,766,178,287 | NO | 0.04941 | 3,616.469038 |
z81640cwd | will-flowers-have-a-verified-user-b | will @Flowers have a verified user badge by the end of 2024? | null | 1,719,438,509,977 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,739,215,546,811 | NO | 0.169802 | 1,370.091706 |
08mcu212pu | will-the-united-state-recognize-a-n | Will the United State recognize a new government in Bolivia by the end of 2024? | null | 1,719,435,219,657 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,780,860,995 | NO | 0.101689 | 386 |
v1rg6i4i2k | will-women-will-be-having-more-sex | Will women will be having more sex with robots than men by 2025? | null | 1,719,384,080,698 | 1,735,694,026,789 | 1,735,694,026,789 | NO | 0.01 | 899.573625 |
i3wnkdkq0z | a-year-from-now-will-manifold-think | A year from now, will Manifold think this prediction about the future of LLM's has held up? | null | 1,719,379,429,007 | 1,735,649,940,000 | 1,751,776,522,656 | NO | 0.584539 | 1,362.67891 |
bczq099bmu | will-i-make-both-usapho-or-the-fide | Will I make both USApHO and the FIDE IM title before the summer of 2025? | null | 1,719,366,605,389 | 1,750,478,340,000 | 1,750,916,606,436 | NO | 0.26338 | 976 |
t7nckwdc29 | would-creating-a-manifold-minecraft | Would creating a Manifold Minecraft server be successful? | null | 1,719,362,357,591 | 1,735,649,940,000 | 1,747,825,607,867 | NO | 0.351647 | 65 |
9y1gxuntth | will-openai-dissolve-by-july-2025 | Will OpenAI dissolve by July 2025? | null | 1,719,347,314,275 | 1,751,432,340,000 | 1,751,473,381,109 | NO | 0.010844 | 13,443.801707 |
h21yoxpegf | will-the-team-that-is-the-2025-nhl | Will the team that is the 2025 NHL Stanley Cup winner be a first-time champion? | null | 1,719,344,648,615 | 1,747,577,618,001 | 1,747,577,618,001 | NO | 0.058189 | 3,050.836428 |
evwmukfzrc | a-reputable-news-outlet-reports-on | A reputable news outlet reports on a Twitter Julian Assange disinformation campaign by EOY 2024. | null | 1,719,321,420,070 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,735,340,000 | NO | 0.374949 | 30 |
vo4lts2216 | will-julian-assange-be-guest-of-the | Will Julian Assange be guest of The Joe Rogan Experience podcast in 2024? | null | 1,719,309,321,589 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,818,973,072 | NO | 0.014204 | 8,547.831277 |
d69sh8g863 | will-the-memecoin-slerf-reach-1b-ma | Will the memecoin $Slerf reach 1B Market cap by the end of 2024 | null | 1,719,302,547,879 | 1,735,660,740,000 | 1,736,598,367,836 | NO | 0.01 | 937.477757 |
av5yv360gn | will-sapirwhorf-for-rationalists-ma | Will "Sapir-Whorf for Rationalists" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,719,300,839,182 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,305,908,098 | NO | 0.157863 | 80 |
h3zr6f4bg5 | will-assange-survive-the-next-six-m | Will Assange survive the next six months? | null | 1,719,292,036,797 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,741,978,128,880 | YES | 0.963784 | 6,928.565684 |
un1i1vwsm9 | will-one-day-sooner-make-the-top-fi-60ybgvcqep | Will "One Day Sooner" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,719,255,171,988 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,937,462 | NO | 0.161285 | 25 |
7c30o25ncd | will-one-day-sooner-make-the-top-fi | Will "One Day Sooner" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,719,255,171,702 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,305,987,411 | NO | 0.15 | 12.040495 |
t1ak19om8g | will-i-subvert-my-internet-blocks-o-5thpkt347s | Will I subvert my internet blocks on a day that is not covered by one of my rolling commitment markets by EOY 2024. | null | 1,719,249,161,453 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,736,178,000,302 | YES | 0.203723 | 158.985507 |
lu8p5uunog | will-big-mac-subsidy-make-the-top-f | Will "Big Mac Subsidy?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,719,239,658,178 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,376,360 | NO | 0.12729 | 100 |
366yctldkr | will-but-why-would-the-ai-kill-us-m | Will "But why would the AI kill us?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,719,239,219,878 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,522,803 | NO | 0.127181 | 100 |
mws7iij5nw | will-the-claude-4-series-of-models | Will the Claude 4 series of models come out before 2026? | null | 1,719,235,629,110 | 1,747,944,239,731 | 1,747,944,239,731 | YES | 0.99 | 2,767.843096 |
ntwinyr4ax | will-the-uk-foreign-secretary-go-to | Will the UK Foreign Secretary go to China before 2025? | null | 1,719,226,073,200 | 1,735,660,740,000 | 1,735,765,959,858 | YES | 0.898365 | 215 |
bv7x3ej82b | will-there-are-probably-no-superhum | Will "There are (probably) no superhuman Go AIs: st..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,719,224,312,759 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,335,025 | NO | 0.099625 | 393.832915 |
lj646b5bkb | will-russia-and-ukraine-sign-or-pro | Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025? | null | 1,719,215,086,321 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,736,450,385,283 | NO | 0.036039 | 4,363.351591 |
yl5pkook7t | will-there-be-50-or-more-inches-of | Will there be 50 inches of rain in Central Park this year? | null | 1,719,202,393,580 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,238,618 | NO | 0.013929 | 1,145.298837 |
yzmlrhy43r | will-there-be-fourty-or-more-inches | Will there be 40 inches of rain in Central Park this year? | null | 1,719,202,256,142 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,789,307,903 | YES | 0.938884 | 388.666423 |
apwoohx5rw | will-contrapoints-release-a-video-f | Will Contrapoints release a video after Twilight on YouTube by the end of 2024? | null | 1,719,178,275,639 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,233,789 | NO | 0.01 | 1,072.479429 |
z08qm5fsvu | will-nvidia-nvda-end-22-at-or-above | Will Nvidia NVDA end 2/2 at or above $222 USD per share? | null | 1,719,152,076,271 | 1,738,558,740,000 | 1,738,645,437,871 | NO | 0.009815 | 2,157.180436 |
2af0dzfwmw | will-nvidia-nvda-end-33-at-or-above | Will Nvidia NVDA end 3/3 at or above $333 USD per share? | null | 1,719,151,536,489 | 1,741,064,340,000 | 1,741,316,667,877 | NO | 0.01 | 2,206.710066 |
4io96hv9xj | will-petrobras-be-granted-permissio | Will Petrobras be granted permission to search for oil in the mouth of the Amazon River by the end of 2024? | null | 1,719,148,712,106 | 1,735,700,340,000 | 1,735,738,439,829 | NO | 0.238109 | 296.761295 |
t1ydemq1mt | will-argentina-grant-asylum-or-shel | Will Argentina grant asylum or shelter to any fugitives from the 1/8/2023 attempted coup in Brazil by the end of 2024? | null | 1,719,147,740,032 | 1,735,700,340,000 | 1,735,738,476,129 | NO | 0.098201 | 279.207923 |
rns2bx68ph | will-apple-intelligence-be-delayed | Will Apple Intelligence be deployed in the EU within 12 months of deployment in the USA? | null | 1,719,147,346,046 | 1,743,970,436,311 | 1,743,970,436,311 | YES | 0.954571 | 7,685.044638 |
pxay673x2u | will-anyone-be-charged-with-a-crimi | Will anyone be charged with a criminal offence in connection with gambling on the timing of the UK General Election? | null | 1,719,142,102,310 | 1,744,634,395,731 | 1,744,634,395,731 | YES | 0.99 | 22,926.430044 |
q91xzltuqc | will-nvidia-nvda-end-44-at-or-above | Will Nvidia NVDA end 4/4 at or above $444 USD per share? | null | 1,719,110,528,163 | 1,743,825,540,000 | 1,743,827,153,238 | NO | 0.01 | 12,818.441469 |
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