id stringlengths 9 20 | slug stringlengths 4 54 | question stringlengths 1 120 | firstGroup float64 | createdTime int64 1,715B 1,752B | closeTime int64 1,717B 1,752B | resolvedTime int64 1,736B 1,752B | resolution stringclasses 2 values | resolutionProbability float64 0 1 | volume float64 0 6.93M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
uotr17zupt | will-any-llm-released-in-the-next-y | Will any LLM released in the next year double my coding productivity? | null | 1,721,533,099,165 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,743,543,459,569 | YES | 0.237616 | 111.932681 |
v1ntaw3zby | will-i-make-usajmo-2025-38um3jvgb5 | Will I make USAJMO 2025 | null | 1,721,524,528,321 | 1,741,110,074,410 | 1,741,110,074,410 | YES | 0.99 | 4,966.047918 |
lyjm46gbo | will-book-review-going-infinite-mak | Will "Book Review: Going Infinite" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,721,508,129,845 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,965,392,546 | YES | 0.184569 | 50 |
rc7g5nxqw2 | will-donald-trump-win-1-or-more-of | Will Donald Trump win 1 or more of the following states in the Electoral College: VA, CO, MN, NM, or NH? | null | 1,721,505,352,761 | 1,722,149,940,000 | 1,735,882,590,684 | NO | 0.352053 | 287.550128 |
o7z728fc3z | will-libs-of-tiktok-be-banned-or-su | Will Libs of TikTok be banned or suspended from Twitter / X by EOY 2024? | null | 1,721,500,471,300 | 1,735,700,340,000 | 1,738,084,369,151 | NO | 0.026674 | 6,141.267293 |
belz7i4m92 | will-louisiana-implement-the-ten-co | Will Louisiana implement the "Ten Commandments in Classrooms" law by July 2025? Or will it be struck down in court? | null | 1,721,490,492,168 | 1,751,428,740,000 | 1,751,473,039,210 | NO | 0.02215 | 10,256.848207 |
g8cpknt1ga | will-lesswrong-have-book-review-on | Will LessWrong have book review on some newly-added source to Wikipedia rationality-related articles? | null | 1,721,489,967,524 | 1,735,671,540,000 | 1,739,996,385,598 | NO | 0.563221 | 14 |
3j63k1thnh | was-the-crowdstrike-outage-an-insid | The CrowdStrike crash was not an accident | null | 1,721,479,017,525 | 1,749,788,597,194 | 1,749,788,597,194 | NO | 0.01 | 35,577.039931 |
2ibuuk0l61 | will-land-of-bad-receive-a-nominati | Will 'Land of Bad' receive a nomination for Best Picture at the 2025 Academy Awards? | null | 1,721,453,728,556 | 1,740,372,491,536 | 1,740,372,491,536 | NO | 0.01 | 897.24346 |
vsm0rmozrp | did-generative-ai-have-a-causal-eff | Did generative AI have a causal effect on the major outage generated by Crowdstrike? | null | 1,721,421,318,471 | 1,735,804,740,000 | 1,736,179,509,493 | NO | 0.038208 | 5,216.14193 |
ecl40j5xs2 | will-suella-braverman-defect-to-ref | Will Suella Braverman defect to Reform UK? | null | 1,721,409,162,390 | 1,735,990,530,422 | 1,735,990,530,422 | NO | 0.01 | 15,829.64332 |
f2inuwe3h5 | will-the-ceo-of-crowdstrike-george | Will the CEO of Crowdstrike (George Kurtz) resign or get fired in 2024 due to the global tech outages? | null | 1,721,401,105,726 | 1,735,706,784,111 | 1,735,706,784,111 | NO | 0.01 | 92,927.253552 |
04hwoej4tt | will-my-thoughts-on-the-social-resp | Will "My thoughts on the social response to AI risk" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,721,336,940,009 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,965,398,499 | NO | 0.12729 | 100 |
n5e52r1m3o | will-i-release-my-first-original-mu | Will I release my first original musical track or cover video this year? | null | 1,721,329,683,800 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,736,372,667,865 | NO | 0.16487 | 371.600656 |
7ykgwog091 | will-gixxerbrah-be-arrested-again-i | Will Gixxerbrah be arrested again in 2024? | null | 1,721,317,781,463 | 1,735,660,740,000 | 1,736,526,795,220 | NO | 0.193269 | 1,055 |
eq5936ni2s | will-intel-issue-widespread-refunds | Will Intel issue widespread refunds or recall due to defective 13th/14th gen processors in 2024? | null | 1,721,284,462,378 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,759,681,321 | NO | 0.133998 | 3,894.751162 |
0ub9bnow1s | if-i-deltaechovictor-shave-my-head | If I (@DeltaEchoVictor) shave my head again, will I regret it six months later? | null | 1,721,275,397,293 | 1,737,694,740,000 | 1,738,103,110,200 | NO | 0.445362 | 566 |
pj5bez65zp | will-a-presidential-candidate-or-pr | will a presidential candidate or presid nominee be harmed during an assassination attempt by end of jan 20th 2025. | null | 1,721,263,133,126 | 1,737,442,329,150 | 1,737,442,329,150 | NO | 0.017681 | 7,451.488708 |
gplxkgf6bk | biden-will-be-diagnosed-with-long-c | Biden will be diagnosed with long COVID in 2024 | null | 1,721,261,029,756 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,736,040,691,775 | NO | 0.01 | 16,544.85894 |
7vh2k3b1bz | will-joe-biden-pass-away-before-the | Will Joe Biden pass away before the end of his presidency, leading to Kamala Harris becoming the first female president? | null | 1,721,256,871,047 | 1,737,395,580,000 | 1,738,394,661,009 | NO | 0.01 | 27,446.793988 |
hdu6xerr0j | will-gareth-southgate-be-appointed | Will Gareth Southgate be appointed to a Premier League job in 2024/25? | null | 1,721,246,322,348 | 1,748,213,940,000 | 1,748,479,842,790 | NO | 0.01 | 11,835.885943 |
p0ifkkimv8 | will-any-major-tech-companies-other | Will any major tech companies (other than SpaceX and X) move out of California in 2024? | null | 1,721,242,711,130 | 1,735,700,340,000 | 1,738,515,177,742 | NO | 0.069935 | 2,650 |
oss1pml9cq | will-there-be-a-disaster-this-year | Will there be a disaster this year with an economic cost of over $100 billion as of December 31, 2024? | null | 1,721,237,425,837 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,739,773,068,257 | NO | 0.033519 | 19,395.937079 |
ct2mvizl3r | will-speed-running-everyone-through | Will "Speed running everyone through the bad alignm..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,721,235,629,418 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,305,348,869 | NO | 0.099037 | 405 |
39jacutaaa | will-pretraining-language-models-wi | Will "Pretraining Language Models with Human Prefer..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,721,163,705,763 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,471,390 | NO | 0.086775 | 597.047163 |
jknka46aty | will-google-release-a-model-called | Will Google release a model called Gemini 1.5 Ultra or Gemini 2.0 Ultra before the end of the year? | null | 1,721,156,357,329 | 1,735,742,068,493 | 1,735,742,068,493 | NO | 0.024543 | 968.526436 |
i3m03smmyq | will-there-be-election-related-viol | Will there be election related violence right before or after the election in Boston? | null | 1,721,154,154,501 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,737,025,142,711 | NO | 0.081402 | 272.961538 |
0d5lcwal84 | will-there-be-a-snap-senedd-electio | Will there be a snap Senedd election in Wales by the end of 2024? | null | 1,721,133,578,387 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,736,543,207,390 | NO | 0.0214 | 76,189.142773 |
dzce9owxef | will-vivek-ramaswamy-be-appointed-t | Will Vivek Ramaswamy be appointed to replace JD Vance in the US Senate? | null | 1,721,129,199,262 | 1,738,344,799,835 | 1,738,344,799,835 | NO | 0.010901 | 13,306.633824 |
xtuvkq5gvb | will-g-elliott-morris-leave-538-aft | Will G. Elliott Morris leave 538 after the 2024 election? | null | 1,721,112,585,858 | 1,742,401,561,637 | 1,742,401,561,637 | YES | 0.99 | 9,865.744607 |
ouumqviaw1 | at-the-end-of-2024-will-mr-beasts-m | At the end of 2024 will Mr Beast's most viewed video have been made in the last year? | null | 1,721,105,202,781 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,318,553 | NO | 0.01 | 908.261416 |
oqs51g02br | will-mr-beast-have-a-video-with-1-b-byupvrrra2 | Will Mr Beast have a video with 1 billion views by the end of June 2025? | null | 1,721,105,112,232 | 1,751,327,919,470 | 1,751,327,919,470 | NO | 0.011636 | 1,749.502765 |
ahb6xviqrl | will-mr-beast-have-a-video-with-1-b | Will Mr Beast have a video with 1 billion views by the end of 2024? | null | 1,721,105,109,287 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,321,966 | NO | 0.014017 | 774.309505 |
qvl0q0iz08 | will-jd-vance-be-charged-with-a-cri-v66qmjx2kr | Will JD Vance be charged with a crime by the end of 2024? | null | 1,721,103,913,228 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,800,440 | NO | 0.041174 | 386 |
i2n3fv0qgy | on-jan-1-2025-will-new-replit-users | On jan 1 2025, will new replit users be allowed to create at least 10 repls? | null | 1,721,077,662,140 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,708,754,012 | NO | 0.048078 | 3,461 |
n0tfl5piih | will-the-lk99-market-reach-75000-tr | Will the LK-99 market reach 75000 Trades before it resolves? | null | 1,721,052,046,725 | 1,735,775,252,576 | 1,735,808,655,551 | NO | 0.069036 | 270 |
jdilycfsoh | will-will-the-growing-deer-prion-ep | Will "Will the growing deer prion epidemic spread t..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,721,024,739,575 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,976,239 | NO | 0.435522 | 2,361.147744 |
if8g0401ng | will-evidence-come-out-that-the-tru | Will evidence come out that the Trump Rally shooter bought socks as his $15 donation to ActBlue by the end of 2024? | null | 1,720,996,468,529 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,805,374 | NO | 0.038529 | 804.54222 |
ul2hedu0gb | the-trump-shooter-was-an-incel | Was Trump’s shooter an incel? | null | 1,720,974,504,289 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,738,313,049,760 | YES | 0.964876 | 497.994936 |
5apan07oot | will-evan-vuccis-photograph-of-trum-ws9gjnwgic | Will Evan Vucci's photograph of Trump pumping his fist win a Pulitzer? | null | 1,720,974,131,342 | 1,747,201,695,635 | 1,747,201,695,635 | NO | 0.010216 | 14,848.771488 |
9jqv7jtjnj | will-the-trump-administration-revis | Will the Trump campaign revisit their take on the 2nd Amendment? | null | 1,720,948,523,740 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,857,104,295 | NO | 0.091533 | 2,511.387983 |
rj7qpha2wj | will-trump-describe-himself-as-a-ch | Will Trump describe himself as a "changed man" by the end of 2024? | null | 1,720,948,305,588 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,802,773,705 | NO | 0.023246 | 67,480.817159 |
9ajpp1bio3 | will-trump-present-or-wear-a-piece | Will Trump display or wear a piece of his own bloodstained clothing at a public event by the end of 2024? | null | 1,720,939,968,504 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,808,433 | NO | 0.023667 | 4,020.582782 |
tayeftx6ce | will-there-be-any-evidence-linking | Will there be evidence linking the first Trump shooter to Nick Fuentes or the Groyper movement by the end of 2024? | null | 1,720,938,964,006 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,817,129 | NO | 0.064375 | 6,868.328362 |
bittakad5k | will-the-fooming-shoggoths-release | Will the Fooming Shoggoths release a second album on Spotify in 2024? | null | 1,720,933,903,760 | 1,735,711,140,000 | 1,735,734,598,704 | NO | 0.033466 | 5,610.309074 |
krbzcruxys | will-there-be-an-assassination-atte-lay8qx2l11 | Will there be an assassination attempt on Joe Biden before the end of 2024? | null | 1,720,932,506,690 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,820,081 | NO | 0.042229 | 3,828.450039 |
25iwe9kupq | will-evan-vuccis-photograph-of-trum | Will Evan Vucci's photograph of Trump pumping his fist be at least a finalist for a Pulitzer? | null | 1,720,927,664,156 | 1,748,590,499,858 | 1,748,590,499,858 | NO | 0.01 | 24,640.251896 |
mv91e65x5i | will-the-chat-arena-model-upcomingg | Will the chat arena model "upcoming-gpt-mini" be made by OpenAI and have open sourced weights by the end of the year? | null | 1,720,926,974,141 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,742,113,717 | NO | 0.140337 | 169.446583 |
a7skrwi41m | will-yoyo-take-a-gap-year-before-gr | Will Yoyo take at least one gap year before graduating Minerva? | null | 1,720,924,001,388 | 1,736,792,318,329 | 1,736,792,646,873 | YES | 0.484186 | 521 |
3aynh7pprr | will-manifold-market-creators-and-m | Will Manifold market creators and maintainers have the ability to manage their markets well, by mid 2025? | null | 1,720,918,634,100 | 1,751,353,140,000 | 1,751,574,216,530 | NO | 0.021368 | 60,329.832801 |
i1egzukm0y | was-the-trump-shooting-a-false-flag | Was the Trump shooting a false flag? | null | 1,720,916,769,861 | 1,730,879,940,000 | 1,735,940,899,895 | NO | 0.020016 | 29,843.31755 |
geyibo1bio | nyt-clearly-suggests-discussed-trum | NYT clearly suggests Trump attack May have been staged by mid 2025 | null | 1,720,912,304,080 | 1,751,353,140,000 | 1,751,358,146,769 | NO | 0.010225 | 171,048.866878 |
z5z3dpjq9o | will-a-human-win-the-annual-2025-hu | Will a human win the annual 2025 Human vs Horse "Marathon" Race? | null | 1,720,903,992,985 | 1,751,253,588,165 | 1,751,253,588,165 | YES | 0.99 | 1,242.073085 |
aq7fvnk6ey | will-accidentally-load-bearing-make | Will "Accidentally Load Bearing" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,720,897,189,263 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,085,355 | YES | 0.4 | 1,727.088435 |
yy5lxij1gr | will-thoughts-on-sharing-informatio | Will "Thoughts on sharing information about languag..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,720,888,896,445 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,574,112 | YES | 0.14 | 0 |
gt3jro5mog | will-there-be-a-military-droneswarm | Will there be a military drone-swarm to drone-swarm dogfight (packfight?) before July 2025? | null | 1,720,863,106,256 | 1,751,407,140,000 | 1,751,622,480,367 | NO | 0.01 | 9,192.287612 |
3eth3krujg | will-the-ukrainerussia-post-still-b | Will the Ukraine-Russia post still be pinned at the top of r/worldnews on Reddit at the end of 2024? | null | 1,720,837,829,403 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,824,978 | YES | 0.873438 | 165 |
excelfy5nd | will-bambu-lab-release-a-significan | Rumors: Will Bambu Lab release a significantly new printer in 2024? | null | 1,720,829,304,227 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,782,062,989 | NO | 0.033842 | 2,010 |
nz1ej892p7 | will-the-standalone-hulu-app-still | Will the standalone Hulu app still exist on July 1, 2025? | null | 1,720,819,645,817 | 1,751,428,740,000 | 1,751,456,435,200 | YES | 0.99 | 11,330.249561 |
lyvfefjzxk | will-making-ais-less-likely-to-be-s | Will "Making AIs less likely to be spiteful" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,720,817,161,866 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,563,657 | NO | 0.1 | 392.046791 |
v60lep4lpg | will-fanfictionnet-be-accessible-at | Will fanfiction.net be accessible at the end of 2024? | null | 1,720,805,171,886 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,751,918,397 | YES | 0.983914 | 12,998.139725 |
yxi24wbw5m | will-davi-alcolumbre-uniaoap-be-ele | Will Davi Alcolumbre (UNIÃO-AP) be elected President of the Brazilian Senate for the 2025-2026 term? | null | 1,720,800,674,342 | 1,738,465,140,000 | 1,738,584,822,661 | YES | 0.948565 | 420 |
0xjkk2rro8 | will-alignment-grantmaking-is-fundi | Will "Alignment Grantmaking is Funding-Limited Righ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,720,793,005,360 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,348,656 | NO | 0.092482 | 500 |
ud8zlbyvmo | will-mr-beast-lose-the-spot-even-if | Will Mr. Beast lose the spot (even if just temporarily) as having the largest subscriber base by 2025? | null | 1,720,791,736,063 | 1,735,793,940,000 | 1,736,115,221,642 | NO | 0.01 | 1,149.450231 |
wqgnuj733u | kyiv-hydroelectric-power-plant-will | Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant will be seriously damaged before the end of 2024 | null | 1,720,789,920,292 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,737,623,527,790 | NO | 0.195761 | 105 |
8ntqc5sews | will-2022-was-the-year-agi-arrived | Will "2022 was the year AGI arrived (Just don't cal..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,720,773,004,228 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,305,362,948 | NO | 0.162178 | 26 |
1v4pfyanvn | will-gpt175bee-make-the-top-fifty-p | Will "GPT-175bee" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,720,765,065,991 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,327,262 | NO | 0.133368 | 50 |
0nvd4pqm9r | will-any-player-break-lewandowskis | Will any player break Lewandowski's record (41 Bundesliga goals) this season? | null | 1,720,729,166,895 | 1,748,222,278,920 | 1,748,222,278,920 | NO | 0.01 | 1,292.058932 |
27pecvmhm7 | will-there-be-a-dislike-button-on-t | Will there be a dislike button on Twitter / X before the end of 2024? | null | 1,720,702,721,350 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,845,661 | NO | 0.092448 | 522.536701 |
rdjxkpcjp9 | will-thoughts-on-the-impact-of-rlhf | Will "Thoughts on the impact of RLHF research" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,720,697,730,959 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,493,508 | NO | 0.140813 | 1 |
s2i8y2m2oh | will-neuralink-implant-its-device-i | Will Neuralink implant its device in five or more patients before the end of 2024? | null | 1,720,697,592,689 | 1,735,682,340,000 | 1,735,692,702,474 | NO | 0.082856 | 2,839.529701 |
146gobhln4 | conditional-on-donald-trump-getting | Conditional on Donald Trump getting elected in 2024, will he pardon more than 5 Jan 6 rioters by the end of 2025? | null | 1,720,690,072,734 | 1,737,496,869,858 | 1,737,496,869,858 | YES | 0.932615 | 2,984.859759 |
1s8kl61suq | will-thomas-kwas-miri-research-expe | Will "Thomas Kwa's MIRI research experience" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,720,687,566,108 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,099,302 | NO | 0.1 | 388.832915 |
mzdwciu0ao | will-boogie-produce-evidence-that-h | Will Boogie2988 prove he has cancer by the end of 2024? | null | 1,720,664,305,690 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,841,662 | NO | 0.017697 | 1,264.166791 |
zrkuwsa29h | will-justice-thomas-be-impeached-by | Will Justice Thomas be impeached by the end of 2024? | null | 1,720,651,817,391 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,837,919 | NO | 0.027181 | 767.322018 |
2pfu7ov7td | the-result-of-the-us-presidential-e | The result of the US Presidential election will not be certified by Jan. 6, 2025. | null | 1,720,645,357,403 | 1,736,190,843,557 | 1,736,190,843,557 | NO | 0.01 | 22,981.482847 |
o30rdni3ps | will-biden-ban-menthol-cigarettes-b | Will Biden ban menthol cigarettes between November 5th and leaving office? | null | 1,720,635,799,227 | 1,737,518,833,489 | 1,737,518,833,489 | NO | 0.01 | 13,118.510266 |
r4ky6qtvra | will-ariane-6-flight-2-be-fully-suc | Will Ariane 6 Flight 2 be fully successful? | null | 1,720,633,829,672 | 1,742,742,425,821 | 1,742,742,425,821 | YES | 0.99 | 9,449.510386 |
ozc1ij55l4 | will-belichick-carroll-andor-vrabel | Will Belichick, Carroll and/or Vrabel return as head coaches before the 2025 NFL season? | null | 1,720,632,863,792 | 1,736,702,143,848 | 1,736,702,143,848 | YES | 0.99 | 1,034.570183 |
g1lg8837c6 | will-gpt5-be-released-before-joe-bi | Will GPT-5 be released before Joe Biden ceases to be president? | null | 1,720,595,804,876 | 1,737,359,940,000 | 1,738,225,562,094 | NO | 0.010155 | 1,184.409531 |
nzbc5sqrea | will-the-npf-introduce-a-90-mtr-for | Will the NPF introduce a 90% MTR for income over 400k by the end of 2024? | null | 1,720,564,716,147 | 1,735,618,200,000 | 1,736,117,131,734 | NO | 0.162095 | 130 |
8fx4mncgaf | will-how-much-to-update-on-recent-a | Will "How much to update on recent AI governance moves?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,720,560,098,388 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,305,351,518 | NO | 0.1 | 392.045575 |
7br8hamq2g | will-labour-introduce-a-wealth-tax | Will Labour introduce a wealth tax? | null | 1,720,553,344,254 | 1,751,973,752,127 | 1,751,973,752,127 | NO | 0.027902 | 6,175.264531 |
dsydbk57d0 | will-coffee-cost-more-than-tea-at-t-i3t49gdsnr | Will Coffee cost more than Tea at the end of June 2025? | null | 1,720,550,748,129 | 1,751,210,280,000 | 1,751,645,639,078 | YES | 0.99 | 990.041717 |
s2wlgkz3c3 | will-coffee-cost-more-than-tea-at-t | Will Coffee cost more than Tea at the end of 2024? | null | 1,720,550,709,936 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,854,777 | YES | 0.94854 | 331 |
6ep0fbbbsk | will-there-be-a-new-episode-of-the-qa276b1z05 | Will there be a new episode of the Exponent Podcast before 2025-01-01 | null | 1,720,531,963,868 | 1,735,768,740,000 | 1,738,956,337,139 | NO | 0.01 | 895.15266 |
dtxxgaq0lv | will-when-is-a-mind-me-make-the-top | Will "When is a mind me?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | null | 1,720,508,263,920 | 1,739,304,649,673 | 1,739,304,649,673 | NO | 0.342373 | 416.614337 |
qtudbliwjj | did-the-idf-intentionally-kill-isra | Did the IDF intentionally kill Israelis on October 7th as part of the Hannibal Directive? | null | 1,720,496,314,884 | 1,739,030,116,308 | 1,739,030,116,308 | YES | 0.769537 | 21,432.583988 |
tipy88geb7 | will-i-make-rmm-2025-975t54pg6d | Will I make RMM 2025? | null | 1,720,491,704,852 | 1,739,941,234,810 | 1,739,941,234,810 | YES | 0.99 | 1,029.691832 |
dkmbox8dug | will-it-be-discovered-that-gorillas | Will it be discovered that gorillas are conscious by EOY 2024 | null | 1,720,487,270,431 | 1,735,772,340,000 | 1,743,008,801,942 | NO | 0.122844 | 218.22663 |
5wnn2n6d4g | in-2024-will-openphilanthropy-post | In 2024, will OpenPhilanthropy post about concrete progress on AI alignment due to one of their grants? | null | 1,720,467,306,107 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,761,665,037 | NO | 0.139221 | 1,617.815143 |
5o1bv4nmvk | will-i-dgga-end-up-with-a-positive-zs7vgj2gs6 | Will I (@dgga) end up with a positive all-time profit by EOY 2024? | null | 1,720,453,481,951 | 1,735,682,340,000 | 1,735,692,414,437 | NO | 0.035584 | 572.239484 |
ifimgefqx5 | will-tiktok-be-banned-in-the-united-w44umidk8q | Will TikTok be banned in the United States by the end of 2025? | null | 1,720,417,974,425 | 1,741,155,471,806 | 1,741,155,471,806 | YES | 0.99 | 53,680.511538 |
g61ht9kslw | will-the-nyc-rat-index-be-65-or-hig | Will the NYC Rat Index be 65 or higher at the end of 2024? | null | 1,720,408,349,351 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,858,536 | NO | 0.021374 | 600 |
zx2kpoxayz | will-nyc-subway-ridership-be-70-or | Will NYC Subway ridership be 70% of pre-pandemic levels or higher at the end of 2024? | null | 1,720,403,563,919 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,736,036,801,161 | YES | 0.963266 | 435 |
pwt9te7ye5 | will-there-be-85k-or-more-people-li | Will there be 85k or more people living in the NYC homeless shelter system at the end of 2024? | null | 1,720,403,045,269 | 1,736,049,530,048 | 1,736,049,530,048 | YES | 0.945893 | 321 |
4heyulqci2 | will-it-be-shown-that-nyt-employees-odbxbfckir | Will it be shown that NYT employees' cats kill more ENDANGERED birds annually than SpaceX launches? (Proven before 2025) | null | 1,720,394,938,627 | 1,735,711,140,000 | 1,741,210,282,357 | NO | 0.079559 | 28,254.25437 |
f6dw7g3xit | will-the-2024-us-presidential-elect-4os4wnadkv | Will the 2024 US Presidential Election results be officially contested by either major party? | null | 1,720,386,703,459 | 1,740,815,940,000 | 1,740,876,649,243 | NO | 0.01 | 11,926.368463 |
3816133fjc | will-it-be-shown-that-nyt-employees | Will it be shown that NYT employees' cats kill more birds annually than SpaceX launches? (Proven before 2025) | null | 1,720,379,986,644 | 1,747,166,679,553 | 1,747,167,763,043 | NO | 0.145328 | 44,315.457112 |
0bt0nyznwg | will-prizes-for-matrix-completion-p | Will "Prizes for matrix completion problems" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,720,371,128,230 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,342,078 | NO | 0.11626 | 202 |
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