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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NlsRy20QsP | will-gpt45-be-released-on-thursday | Will GPT-4.5 be released on Thursday? | null | 1,740,629,222,671 | 1,740,706,459,366 | 1,740,706,459,366 | YES | 0.990261 | 19,027.906039 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
t26AS2UAR2 | will-russia-agree-to-the-ceasefire | Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine within the next 30 days? | null | 1,741,784,477,358 | 1,744,408,740,000 | 1,744,412,053,876 | NO | 0.008277 | 1,982.9817 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
NIOpyz6zCs | loki-stocks | Loki Stocks | null | 1,737,318,557,558 | 1,740,268,633,407 | 1,740,268,660,762 | YES | 0.956602 | 1,986.456507 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
IQqUZhuQSc | short-fuse-will-the-ten-current-fav | [SHORT FUSE] Will the ten current favorites be tomorrow's exact Best Picture lineup? (2025 Oscars) | null | 1,737,573,706,362 | 1,737,629,940,000 | 1,737,643,352,175 | NO | 0.317166 | 1,211.962778 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
ujn1r4umfe | will-we-get-funding-for-our-voyage | Will we get funding for our voyage to the Saya de Malha by January 1 2025? | null | 1,724,803,424,452 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,734,250,339 | NO | 0.34564 | 645 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
lE2c9y8q6l | war-in-ukraine-ends-by-may-9-2025 | War in Ukraine ends by May 9, 2025? | null | 1,737,993,433,138 | 1,746,849,540,000 | 1,746,869,114,492 | NO | 0.008013 | 3,656.275835 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
tIyEL85uAI | sanders-and-aoc-announce-new-nation | Sanders and AOC announce new national day of action before June 22, 2025? | null | 1,742,917,423,587 | 1,750,550,340,000 | 1,751,386,671,054 | NO | 0.27354 | 249 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
NIlZhzcnLy | will-iran-announceby-june-4that-it | Will Iran announce by June 4 that it has developed a nuclear weapons capability? | null | 1,737,080,509,271 | 1,749,129,996,135 | 1,749,129,996,135 | NO | 0.01 | 1,730.518274 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
nNhddsn5l8 | will-i-promote-to-gold-after-march | Will I promote to Gold after March? | null | 1,741,195,193,753 | 1,743,524,722,054 | 1,743,524,743,645 | NO | 0.106614 | 459.796469 | Sports | Individual Sports |
R8htnhI88C | is-cremieux-same-person-as-alexande | Is Cremieux same person as Alexander Kreul? | null | 1,732,827,881,920 | 1,742,396,670,981 | 1,742,396,670,981 | NO | 0.293902 | 55 | Entertainment | Celebrity & Pop Culture |
jzshbgkltr | will-missouri-have-a-higher-gdp-in | Will Missouri have a higher GDP in Q3 than Q2? | null | 1,728,190,756,859 | 1,735,711,140,000 | 1,736,777,041,302 | YES | 0.936799 | 285 | Finance | Economic Indicators |
S5QEsRcSOE | will-the-cdu-end-up-below-30-of-the | Will the CDU end up below 30% of the vote in the German Federal Elections (February 23rd) | null | 1,739,786,136,470 | 1,740,441,540,000 | 1,740,585,555,543 | YES | 0.99 | 2,475.480253 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
2undQyzEqZ | will-i-make-a-profit-on-the-canada | Will I make a profit on the Canada PM election market and Tumbles loan? | null | 1,744,262,928,386 | 1,746,762,247,361 | 1,746,762,247,361 | YES | 0.988973 | 11,658.119962 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
ttcdzAuyNL | will-the-60-mana-median-bid-market | will the 60 mana median bid market reach 300 traders? [PLUS BOUNTY?!?] | null | 1,747,421,797,971 | 1,747,466,417,891 | 1,747,466,417,891 | NO | 0.01 | 12,619.923772 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
sdZEAI2syd | will-the-silver-to-gold-ratio-excee | Will the silver to gold ratio exceed 100:1 this year? | null | 1,736,629,541,872 | 1,745,166,904,787 | 1,745,166,904,787 | YES | 0.324159 | 327.137417 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
2AsnQEps6I | house-brings-broad-tariff-control-b | House brings broad tariff control bill to floor by end of May 2025? | null | 1,744,056,447,983 | 1,748,735,940,000 | 1,748,755,480,002 | NO | 0.01 | 15,209.887512 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
0ztn2R9qqn | will-the-kirby-franchise-be-appeari | Will the Kirby franchise be appearing in any form in the next Nintendo Direct presentation (April 2 2025)? | null | 1,742,219,619,294 | 1,743,598,740,000 | 1,743,599,365,387 | YES | 0.35 | 72.997302 | Entertainment | Gaming |
tcpZd8RNln | will-anyone-die-of-h5n1-in-the-us-i | Will anyone die with H5 bird flu in the US in 2025? | null | 1,735,734,028,417 | 1,736,204,515,651 | 1,736,204,515,651 | YES | 0.99 | 11,802.745894 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
2qnnSNLd5S | will-we-win-the-giant-game-of-chess | Will we win the giant game of chess against our neighbors in our front yard? | null | 1,743,382,766,937 | 1,749,176,897,881 | 1,749,176,897,881 | YES | 0.648224 | 77 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
uR9SOCgIRd | will-inter-beat-napoli-this-afterno | Will Inter beat Napoli this afternoon? | null | 1,740,831,118,492 | 1,740,950,455,927 | 1,740,950,455,927 | NO | 0.01 | 1,686.209235 | Sports | Team Sports |
gLcNcQ5E9g | will-hikaru-nakamura-go-over-2816-c | Will Hikaru Nakamura go over 2816 classical Elo in the next 30 days? | null | 1,748,379,634,931 | 1,750,646,105,660 | 1,750,646,105,660 | NO | 0.01 | 945.009317 | Sports | Individual Sports |
NLElcSzs2d | will-chuck-grassley-become-the-inte | Will Chuck grassley become the interim president of the United States | null | 1,731,456,280,191 | 1,737,439,140,000 | 1,737,873,318,222 | NO | 0.005796 | 2,894.574557 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
khhzuqbefx | will-the-game-rimworld-receive-a-ne | Will the game Rimworld have a new DLC announced in 2025? | null | 1,724,611,847,883 | 1,749,505,960,872 | 1,749,505,960,872 | YES | 0.99 | 1,131.80291 | Entertainment | Gaming |
90Nldz6QSI | iran-bombs-us-military-bases-in-mid | Iran bombs US military bases in Middle East by end of June 2025? | null | 1,750,683,792,634 | 1,751,327,940,000 | 1,751,487,256,203 | NO | 0.018848 | 2,799.815069 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
5ApRLEUO2c | will-another-trudeau-cabinet-minist | Will another Trudeau cabinet minister resign in protest before end of January? | null | 1,734,508,259,981 | 1,736,254,327,800 | 1,736,254,327,800 | NO | 0.035605 | 4,383.869186 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
gglbxcmok5 | will-president-biden-issues-executi | Will "President Biden Issues Executive Order on Saf..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,721,586,181,636 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,965,385,956 | NO | 0.12729 | 100 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
slQts5A62O | chiefs-and-lions-to-win-today | Chiefs and Lions to win today? | null | 1,737,229,042,444 | 1,737,260,706,051 | 1,737,260,706,051 | NO | 0.01 | 1,757.893765 | Sports | Professional Sports |
Qzh5NOC8Nq | will-pope-francis-pass-away-before | Will Pope Francis pass away before the end of March 2025? | null | 1,740,309,087,296 | 1,743,466,544,149 | 1,743,466,544,149 | NO | 0.01 | 10,369.588731 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
dSAlhl8dSC | sp-500-closes-higher-on-friday-janu-cOP5APhC0t | S&P 500 Closes Higher On Friday January 17th 2025 Than It Closed On Friday January 10th 2025? (SP500F-#3) | null | 1,736,543,141,198 | 1,737,147,600,000 | 1,737,155,234,599 | YES | 0.955833 | 3,652 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
uhnUSIp0OZ | will-iran-close-the-strait-of-hormu-9Cssp5RcEL | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 30th June? | null | 1,750,084,304,489 | 1,750,084,998,428 | 1,750,084,998,428 | NO | 0.172901 | 125.284362 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
0EcRZgAtuy | is-doge-implementing-land-value-tax | Is DOGE implementing Land Value Tax (LVT) before July 2025? | null | 1,738,680,456,807 | 1,751,342,340,000 | 1,751,439,411,252 | NO | 0.01 | 26,474.800749 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
qc2va35qwq | will-the-us-population-have-grown-m | Will the U.S. Population Have Grown More in 2024 Than in 2023? | null | 1,724,457,177,411 | 1,736,104,665,952 | 1,736,104,665,952 | YES | 0.99 | 1,424.283437 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
2Od6EdECNg | will-ohio-state-beat-texas-in-the-c | Will Ohio state beat Texas in the CFB playoffs ? | null | 1,736,496,748,505 | 1,736,612,077,150 | 1,736,612,077,150 | YES | 0.989703 | 16,352.223377 | Sports | Team Sports |
PnSdt2hOUE | i-will-resolve-this-market-no-at-th-AIE205OILS | I will resolve this market NO at the end of May unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES. | null | 1,746,229,178,738 | 1,746,581,551,196 | 1,746,581,551,196 | YES | 0.208265 | 4,998.089278 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
qRAuOIgCsd | will-the-trump-administration-accid | Will the Trump administration "accidentally" remove any regulation before the end of June? | null | 1,740,070,569,032 | 1,751,342,340,000 | 1,751,505,475,562 | NO | 0.09165 | 335.885176 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
2UzCdhgQ6y | will-korean-president-yoon-suk-yeol | Will Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol be impeached [⚠ and gone] before January 3rd 2025? | null | 1,733,244,702,919 | 1,735,883,940,000 | 1,735,933,729,917 | NO | 0.002421 | 286,960.950455 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
dj01wpyf2t | will-the-trapped-nasa-iss-barry-wil | Will the trapped NASA ISS (Barry Wilmore and Sunita Williams) astronauts be brought back in a SpaceX shuttle? | null | 1,722,943,609,575 | 1,742,877,888,138 | 1,742,877,888,138 | YES | 0.99 | 11,038.146469 | Technology | Mobile & Consumer Electronics |
Z2AdZEulU2 | donald-tusks-government-receives-a | Donald Tusk's government receives a vote of confidence on June 11, 2025 | null | 1,749,416,907,659 | 1,749,657,070,327 | 1,749,657,070,327 | YES | 0.99 | 956.952736 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
5U2uzIUgzy | will-i-play-magic-the-gathering-thi-lQllpRdg8I | Will I play magic the gathering this week? | null | 1,741,023,500,203 | 1,742,194,740,000 | 1,742,223,453,612 | NO | 0.503569 | 52 | Entertainment | Gaming |
ZQSp5slCpg | will-vardas-winnebago-2-mission-lau | Will Varda’s Winnebago 2 mission launch in January 2025? | null | 1,736,189,249,025 | 1,736,883,105,388 | 1,736,883,105,388 | YES | 0.942215 | 775 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
nOq6RPZ8Qp | will-biden-have-granted-more-pardon | Will Biden have granted more pardon petitions than Trump (2017-2021)? | null | 1,733,305,649,982 | 1,737,500,340,000 | 1,738,419,645,830 | NO | 0.104947 | 23,784.827826 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
90usUtOcZI | will-manifold-be-accessible-again-b | Will Manifold be accessible again by 11:30 PM PT tonight? | null | 1,739,221,435,176 | 1,739,259,066,988 | 1,739,259,066,988 | YES | 0.99 | 1,028.672047 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
NP6l0AQRsQ | will-i-find-an-active-prediction-ma | Will I find an active prediction market trader from bavaria, germany, willing to talk to me for a story? | null | 1,750,850,260,549 | 1,751,014,054,784 | 1,751,014,054,784 | YES | 0.989676 | 17,975.354739 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
EnQ8QnuUCt | will-this-market-be-profitable-in-a | Will this market be profitable in a week? | null | 1,743,717,176,435 | 1,744,322,340,000 | 1,744,326,114,117 | NO | 0.131002 | 584.703506 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
hgAqUEUINy | daily-coinflip-yZ6c59sctR | Daily coinflip | null | 1,746,942,523,974 | 1,747,108,740,000 | 1,747,113,092,003 | YES | 0.499903 | 8,371.685881 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
Pulc8uNPhc | will-trump-announce-a-new-tariff-pa | Will Trump announce a new tariff pause by April 9th? | null | 1,743,988,464,196 | 1,744,220,687,283 | 1,744,220,687,283 | YES | 0.989227 | 8,407.811428 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
Q0NgAsOQzy | will-supreme-court-delay-the-tiktok | Will Supreme Court delay the Tiktok ban? | null | 1,736,757,874,145 | 1,737,133,544,834 | 1,737,133,544,834 | NO | 0.01 | 1,335.53115 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
yIIO2uUR2l | will-my-newark-flights-be-delayedca | Will my Newark flights be delayed/cancelled? | null | 1,746,819,441,037 | 1,747,683,180,000 | 1,747,709,072,437 | NO | 0.230031 | 473.378145 | Relevant | Relevant |
ZplAnzRn8t | gorilla-beat-100-men | Gorilla beat 100 men? | null | 1,746,141,861,426 | 1,746,746,340,000 | 1,746,800,891,219 | NO | 0.063429 | 4,333.319639 | SPORTS | INDIVIDUAL SPORTS |
h53g9bd6hn | will-jumaane-williams-be-the-mayor | Will Jumaane Williams be the mayor or acting mayor of New York by mid 2025? | null | 1,727,376,528,949 | 1,751,353,140,000 | 1,751,358,092,366 | NO | 0.01 | 14,779.673485 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
sOOlp6Ot2u | tesla-stock-below-200-eom | Tesla stock below $200 EOM? | null | 1,745,260,170,478 | 1,746,124,791,850 | 1,746,124,791,850 | NO | 0.01 | 1,816.294088 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
C2g5Qlpynz | will-trump-run-another-rally-before | Will Trump run another rally before 2029? | null | 1,730,880,000,420 | 1,746,036,605,682 | 1,746,036,605,682 | YES | 0.969176 | 8,192.257666 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
qAPqLzR6gh | will-the-clements-invitational-be-m | Will the Clements Invitational be more than an hour delayed? | null | 1,744,912,365,449 | 1,745,218,320,000 | 1,746,165,637,062 | YES | 0.989672 | 9,737.892789 | Sports | Individual Sports |
nPSLlnLnpy | will-donald-trump-die-in-2024 | Will Donald Trump Die in 2024? | null | 1,734,968,684,071 | 1,735,711,140,000 | 1,735,746,916,279 | NO | 0.010072 | 1,481.604621 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
lqZZNc2UA9 | will-metrs-50taskcompletion-time-ho | Will METR's "50%-task-completion time horizon" SotA double in under 7 months? | null | 1,743,500,835,704 | 1,744,831,537,024 | 1,744,831,537,024 | YES | 0.988991 | 91,770.26347 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
evwmukfzrc | a-reputable-news-outlet-reports-on | A reputable news outlet reports on a Twitter Julian Assange disinformation campaign by EOY 2024. | null | 1,719,321,420,070 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,735,340,000 | NO | 0.374949 | 30 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
rkl3h8GuXJwoFlfoA5IH | will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-3peat-a | Will the Kansas City Chiefs 3-peat as NFL Champions? | null | 1,715,551,705,086 | 1,739,158,246,907 | 1,739,158,246,907 | NO | 0.01 | 129,987.211435 | Sports | Professional Sports |
GEWvUnMJwVaTZCJBQvFW | will-the-cftc-finalize-a-rule-banni | Will the CFTC finalize a rule that bans US election betting before Jan 20, 2025? | null | 1,715,363,975,007 | 1,737,435,540,000 | 1,738,344,823,704 | NO | 0.01 | 12,726.873135 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
O5png5zgzs | will-gpt45-be-a-reasoning-model | Will gpt4.5 be a reasoning model? | null | 1,740,590,179,827 | 1,740,682,139,273 | 1,740,682,139,273 | NO | 0.117888 | 300 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
UC2A66Rd2S | ras2025-will-trump-reverse-bidens-o | RAS2025: Will Trump reverse Bidens offshore drilling ban on his first day? | null | 1,736,519,937,935 | 1,737,327,599,000 | 1,737,467,785,912 | YES | 0.320894 | 12,520.960879 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
N9t6htRp6p | new-pope-announced-before-may-18 | New Pope announced before May 18? | null | 1,745,313,239,375 | 1,746,730,749,982 | 1,746,730,749,982 | YES | 0.99 | 4,339.331973 | Politics | Government Structure |
ES5UlpPQCL | will-a-uefa-club-lose-to-a-nonuefa | Will a UEFA club lose to a non-UEFA club in the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | null | 1,750,050,671,184 | 1,750,388,530,574 | 1,750,388,530,574 | YES | 0.99 | 894.987437 | Sports | International Competitions |
EzZStygL2u | largescale-cyber-attack-on-iran-or | Large-scale cyber attack on Iran or Israel before Aug 2025? | null | 1,749,798,969,196 | 1,750,356,988,258 | 1,750,356,988,258 | YES | 0.77829 | 1,605.230724 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
8easo5yaso | will-i-be-able-to-create-a-sweepcas | Will I be able to create a Sweepcash market by 2026? | null | 1,726,672,539,596 | 1,741,019,927,497 | 1,741,059,954,775 | YES | 0.073539 | 19,173.054629 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
NZz8ttcUUt | will-the-spx-sp-500-reach-6000-by-e-Cl9yOg28NC | will the SPX / S&P 500 reach 6000 by end of June? | null | 1,748,673,583,368 | 1,749,222,123,062 | 1,749,222,123,062 | YES | 0.99 | 2,385.612629 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
pn6fdmnioj | will-i-finish-reading-the-5th-6th-a | Will I finish reading the 5th, 6th and 7th Harry Potter books before the end of 2024? | null | 1,728,740,171,675 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,739,517,873 | YES | 0.475885 | 132 | Entertainment | Books & Literature |
t2LRSSIg90 | will-the-last-minute-breakdown-of-t | Will the "last minute" breakdown of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire last until January 31, 2025? | null | 1,737,019,433,486 | 1,737,291,348,499 | 1,737,291,348,499 | NO | 0.038601 | 8,924.150281 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
si2lojcdu8 | will-anies-baswedan-form-a-new-poli | Will Anies Baswedan Form a New Political Party Before 2025? | null | 1,725,551,967,901 | 1,735,664,340,000 | 1,741,652,361,101 | NO | 0.32 | 191.230466 | Politics | Political Parties & Ideologies |
9Q9Es6uI5c | will-i-get-all-balatro-gold-sticker-qh9UNzuALl | Will I get all Balatro gold stickers before the end of March? | null | 1,742,109,063,599 | 1,742,754,000,831 | 1,742,754,000,831 | YES | 0.885522 | 311.294362 | Entertainment | Gaming |
28hhPQ9ZIE | will-the-pittsburgh-steelers-hammer | Will the Pittsburgh Steelers hammer the Baltimore Ravens? | null | 1,736,127,935,836 | 1,736,654,476,282 | 1,736,654,476,282 | NO | 0.004062 | 19,740.683588 | Sports | Professional Sports |
0jw26dwpsk | will-any-usa-state-ban-self-driving | Will any state in the USA ban self driving cars by the end of 2024? | null | 1,719,031,948,145 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,789,313,514 | NO | 0.018342 | 3,355 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
RhEthpsqLN | will-i-be-impaneled-as-a-jury-membe | Will I be impaneled as a jury member? | null | 1,735,810,149,339 | 1,735,864,200,581 | 1,735,864,200,581 | NO | 0.2 | 100 | Politics | Government Structure |
n1leuxaauz | will-joe-biden-pardon-donald-trump | Will Joe Biden pardon Donald Trump before leaving office? | null | 1,725,010,688,492 | 1,737,397,264,652 | 1,737,397,264,652 | NO | 0.01 | 232,408.498054 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
gc2uq5AypO | will-donald-trump-publicly-express | Will Donald Trump publicly express interest in serving a third term as president in his first quarter? | null | 1,737,774,851,339 | 1,743,357,801,976 | 1,743,357,801,976 | YES | 0.977368 | 861 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
nthECUIp8c | will-george-get-fired-from-tesco | Will George get fired from Tesco? (Read description) | null | 1,750,178,110,669 | 1,750,523,400,000 | 1,750,687,978,113 | NO | 0.382381 | 151 | Finance | Corporate Finance |
gdRPy0ZEUR | major-cyberattack-disrupts-us-criti | Major cyberattack disrupts U.S. critical infrastructure by April 30, 2025 | null | 1,737,445,995,808 | 1,745,971,200,000 | 1,746,393,119,197 | NO | 0.01 | 914.849822 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
gdc5RQCUnE | will-congress-override-a-trump-veto | Will Congress over-ride a Trump veto during the President's first 100 days? | null | 1,731,363,307,539 | 1,746,161,940,000 | 1,746,488,761,205 | NO | 0.01 | 1,401.231164 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
hd2tq26A59 | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-yn58LyltzI | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Feb 13 than it closed on Feb 12? | null | 1,739,452,720,760 | 1,739,480,483,988 | 1,739,480,483,988 | YES | 0.96618 | 4,595.633276 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
Q0Sts5O0qC | this-market-resolves-yes-at-market | This market resolves YES at market close. | null | 1,738,269,341,735 | 1,738,389,540,000 | 1,738,389,545,074 | YES | 0.99 | 2,629.734429 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
wu8b3splyw | will-sheng-thao-be-the-mayor-of-oak | Will Sheng Thao be the Mayor of Oakland on January 31, 2025? | null | 1,718,906,535,569 | 1,738,396,740,000 | 1,738,829,871,220 | NO | 0.01 | 1,434.92884 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
zggEc6Pgu9 | daily-coinflip-qgOucpcdSs | Daily coinflip | null | 1,738,739,938,268 | 1,738,904,340,000 | 1,738,908,838,967 | YES | 0.5 | 15,566.428234 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
q6xg106zka | will-cmc-play-in-10-or-more-games-i | Will CMC play in 10 or more games in the 2024-2025 season including playoffs? | null | 1,726,290,362,606 | 1,736,697,778,362 | 1,736,697,778,362 | NO | 0.01258 | 7,860 | Sports | Professional sports |
lSgus6ONEI | will-o1-score-60-on-the-rebus-bench | Will o1 score ≥60% on the REBUS benchmark? | null | 1,734,931,506,612 | 1,740,725,940,000 | 1,741,729,068,614 | YES | 0.885749 | 1,905 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
echgx62svs | will-the-eighth-mission-impossible | Will the eighth Mission: Impossible film out gross Dead Reckoning Part One worldwide by the end of its theatrical run? | null | 1,726,856,843,003 | 1,752,027,495,337 | 1,752,027,495,337 | YES | 0.837043 | 1,651.088408 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
At5yIcQlC6 | will-atletico-madrid-qualify-for-th | Will Atletico Madrid qualify for the next round of the Champions League? | null | 1,741,653,914,417 | 1,741,823,915,567 | 1,741,823,915,567 | NO | 0.01 | 969.688292 | Sports | Professional Sports |
uRpgARCPqq | sp-500-above-5500-at-april-close | S&P 500 above 5500 at April close? | null | 1,744,314,846,046 | 1,746,058,407,188 | 1,746,058,407,188 | YES | 0.99 | 1,813.858059 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
8n8prosolx | will-apple-release-a-homepod-powere | Will Apple release a HomePod powered with Apple Intelligence before the end of 2024? | null | 1,718,622,384,432 | 1,735,649,940,000 | 1,735,999,412,956 | NO | 0.031586 | 60,654.607318 | Technology | Mobile & Consumer Electronics |
E6Nn55scNc | will-by-net-worth-be-above-m10000-i | Will my net worth be above Ṁ10,000 in a week? | null | 1,742,086,796,706 | 1,742,691,600,000 | 1,742,691,617,613 | NO | 0.063717 | 4,724.851714 | Finance | Personal Finance |
OyAnlnnq0t | weekly-dice-roll | Weekly dice roll | null | 1,747,889,416,204 | 1,748,501,940,000 | 1,748,502,465,074 | NO | 0.16 | 330.972901 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
GfK2KCXVZvnZgnnF2ZeG | will-snapchat-sign-a-partnership-wi | Will Snapchat sign a partnership with OpenAI before the end of 2024? | null | 1,717,192,336,706 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,963,126,602 | NO | 0.095022 | 2,719.135988 | Technology | Tech Industry & Business |
qAhZAUn8Ah | will-trump-delay-the-tiktok-deadlin | Will Bytedance's deadline to divest from Tiktok be delayed past January 19th? | null | 1,731,439,028,587 | 1,737,272,443,563 | 1,737,272,443,563 | NO | 0.011523 | 1,375,425.133731 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
USZ90gz8RC | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-march-14 | Bitcoin Up or Down on March 14? | null | 1,741,952,564,835 | 1,743,232,445,078 | 1,743,232,445,078 | YES | 0.99 | 1,018.369902 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
Dxg3vWvZuv3LqrRl2Lhg | will-the-mana-supply-grow-to-1b-man | Will the mana supply grow to 1B mana before 2025? | null | 1,716,306,415,767 | 1,735,599,540,000 | 1,735,824,514,962 | NO | 0.012543 | 7,947.30301 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
PLQl5AZAEn | will-the-next-pope-take-the-name-fr | Will the next Pope take the name "Francis?" | null | 1,745,264,353,036 | 1,746,724,843,346 | 1,746,724,843,346 | NO | 0.01 | 15,828.935989 | Politics | Government Structure |
l6E8cdOChA | daily-coinflip-8gEhcRONUy | Daily coinflip | null | 1,744,256,997,004 | 1,744,343,940,000 | 1,744,384,945,756 | NO | 0.5 | 2,184.979796 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
pqux9yxtkp | will-taylor-swift-get-engaged-in-de | Will Taylor Swift get engaged in December 2024? | null | 1,724,472,892,957 | 1,735,690,749,157 | 1,735,690,749,157 | NO | 0.01 | 897.661345 | Entertainment | Celebrity & Pop Culture |
qtPq90sI6u | biden-does-not-pardon-any-of-these | Biden does NOT pardon any of these "surprise" pardons? | null | 1,735,163,815,316 | 1,737,396,414,956 | 1,737,396,414,956 | NO | 0.002483 | 2,817.011875 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
89ZqC0OdU6 | short-fuse-eliezer-yudkowsky-expres | [Short Fuse] Eliezer Yudkowsky expresses optimism towards Anthropic's recent interpretability research before April? | null | 1,743,099,560,063 | 1,743,724,740,000 | 1,743,726,444,130 | NO | 0.014446 | 746.037753 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
Epl6Nh2q6h | someone-makes-lessonline-2025-prop | Someone makes “LessOnline 2025 Prop Bets”? | null | 1,747,825,419,726 | 1,748,287,324,531 | 1,748,287,324,531 | YES | 0.984907 | 1,140.914199 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
PCzsSyd9hE | will-tumbles-be-late-to-pay-back-a-d5zSuOclng | Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan today? | null | 1,749,398,792,850 | 1,749,452,400,000 | 1,749,452,500,079 | YES | 0.95204 | 2,091.027769 | Finance | Personal Finance |
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