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cpmm-1
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cpmm-multi-1
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4.852761430297918
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will-colleen-and-cole-last-to-the-e
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will colleen and cole last to the end of this season of "love is blind"?
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cpmm-1
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Annalise Norling
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will-alyssa-vance-eat-her-hat-due-t
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cpmm-1
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Will Ethereum be "ultrasound" at the end of November?
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Bolton Bailey
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Will Donald Trump be the next Speaker of the House?
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Brian T. Edwards
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1673092753137
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1673089254902
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Will manifold trial in 2022 any new methods to increase ease of trade-level interpretability of how a market's price is funded, and what other markets the traders had succeeded from?
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Will Velocity (@v) trade on this market?
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will-rishi-sunak-be-prime-minister-63af5bf92580
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Will Biden be president on November 7, 2022? (90% chance of resolving to quiescent market price)
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Will people spend time betting on Manifold Markets instead of participating in social events?
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What costume will I wear for Halloween 2023?
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What should I rename myself?
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Is @IsaacKing an honorable member of the Manifold community? -- see comments!
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Will Biden still be president at the end of 2022? [Resolves to (serious) poll]
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Will crypto prices crash post FOMC meeting?
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Andreas Tobing
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What will be Merriam-Webster's Word of the Year for 2022?
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https://firebasestorage.…9a0-9068ef947e19
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1669743793654
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0.5270880776865132
m38BSgQKoldCbMpV6Trw
{"NO": 92.04967374023144, "YES": 428.84134664098406}
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will-anyone-outside-manifold-execut
436.8894423239632
Will anyone outside Manifold execute a 250ms trade?
1669939140000
w1knZ6yBvEhRThYPEYTwlmGv7N33
cpmm-1
0
1.8384760346466331
True
play
NO
public
1667279957281
Velocity
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
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0
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1669945460431
220
v
1669931162470
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https://firebasestorage.…e09-cf7e2747c9c1
8
0
https://firebasestorage.…dc7-759700d90b99
10
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "w1knZ6yBvEhRThYPEYTwlmGv7N33", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1667283842109}, {"name": "Trading Bots", "slug": "trading-bots", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "kCrjmHWxycGEmZsHwaW8", "createdTime": 1667319782598}]
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1669931162352
1669851176009
0.1930519199238473
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c9Cry09C0PdLkfHb12aR
{"NO": 164.71725263814426, "YES": 313.89094291119295}
0
will-the-manifold-team-attempt-to-a
291.44642126694646
Will the Manifold team attempt to assassinate another top account?
1669939140000
w1knZ6yBvEhRThYPEYTwlmGv7N33
cpmm-1
0
1.5051218009822658
True
play
NO
public
1667280102860
Velocity
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are references to a 'Velocity killer' in team notes, and admissions of manipulating platform rules to boost one person's leaderboard score--will another top account (@jack / @jbeshir / ____) be similarly attacked by changing platform rules?",...
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1669945438870
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1669937675103
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[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1667281225107}, {"name": "Conspiracy Theories", "slug": "conspiracy-theories", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "nA6pS69y2sycuFtfYI7o", "createdTime": 16...
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1669937674783
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will-anyone-post-a-clone-of-manifol
238.0209078877695
Will anyone post a clone of Manifold using the open-source repo?
1669939140000
w1knZ6yBvEhRThYPEYTwlmGv7N33
cpmm-1
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1.712073602228405
True
play
CANCEL
public
1667280210303
Velocity
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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1669617470123
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https://firebasestorage.…e09-cf7e2747c9c1
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0
https://firebasestorage.…ada-054a7dfecdcc
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1669617469935
1667313060018
0.662436444958453
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will-insiderfriendly-changes-be-rol
349.42777605680755
Will insider-friendly changes be rolled back?
1669852740000
w1knZ6yBvEhRThYPEYTwlmGv7N33
cpmm-1
0
1.4529999499785182
True
play
NO
public
1667280405417
Velocity
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Specifically: huge delays on the API/website updates--to ensure that insiders with direct server access can trade ahead of others?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-11...
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1669945421296
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1669852411883
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[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1667281313746}, {"name": "Trading Bots", "slug": "trading-bots", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "kCrjmHWxycGEmZsHwaW8", "createdTime": 1667319035662}]
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will-manifold-institute-a-reasonabl
282.1664899507431
Will Manifold institute a 'priority fee auction'?
1669939140000
w1knZ6yBvEhRThYPEYTwlmGv7N33
cpmm-1
0
2.289869198140805
True
play
NO
public
1667280607715
Velocity
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E.g. priority fees paid to clear trades in <1s, with auctioning of 'trade speed' to distribute profits to the platform and/or all users versus insider theft?", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
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1669945348814
200
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1669937604317
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https://firebasestorage.…e09-cf7e2747c9c1
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0
https://firebasestorage.…a7c-4e2a122d24b3
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[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1667281333258}, {"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 16...
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1669937604104
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will-the-portfolio-page-ever-fully
325.50516584761687
Will the portfolio page ever fully load?
1669939140000
w1knZ6yBvEhRThYPEYTwlmGv7N33
cpmm-1
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1.4257663833221104
True
play
CANCEL
public
1667280693286
Velocity
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}
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1669945364008
260
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1669937030292
0
https://firebasestorage.…e09-cf7e2747c9c1
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0
https://firebasestorage.…597-42e1b6f103dc
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[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "w1knZ6yBvEhRThYPEYTwlmGv7N33", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1667283877227}, {"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1667318899307}]
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will-the-acc-account-be-deleted-and
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Will the @acc account be open-sourced?
1669939140000
w1knZ6yBvEhRThYPEYTwlmGv7N33
cpmm-1
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1.2877991467268604
True
play
NO
public
1667280840975
Velocity
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1669945333374
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1669935920560
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0
https://firebasestorage.…464-b8b19960ae96
16
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1667281395579}, {"name": "Trading Bots", "slug": "trading-bots", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "kCrjmHWxycGEmZsHwaW8", "createdTime": 1667318883945}]
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0.5
1669935920314
1667287171208
0.12000000000000002
0.5017831432560262
01E6MDFsZkNGWhiTtwYm
{"NO": 151.94222680670777, "YES": 68.491827103021}
1
will-manifolddream-return
70.00000000000003
Will @ManifoldDream return?
1667282034115
w1knZ6yBvEhRThYPEYTwlmGv7N33
cpmm-1
0
2.8145939267430364
True
play
YES
public
1667280958490
Velocity
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Automatic--or replies to @ManifoldDream ", "type": "text"}]}]}
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1667282034115
140
v
1667281858277
0
https://firebasestorage.…e09-cf7e2747c9c1
2
0
https://firebasestorage.…97f-3755d13a2e57
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[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1667281443681}, {"name": "Trading Bots", "slug": "trading-bots", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "kCrjmHWxycGEmZsHwaW8", "createdTime": 1667319080855}]
["manifold-6748e065087e", "trading-bots"]
0.5
1667281848196
1667281856218
0.6908120700828081
0.8740759409383485
q2CIOXArRWyjSRhLOWsL
{"NO": 4390.847868895102, "YES": 179.5153596828018}
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will-fed-raise-interest-rate-by-75b
4710.033007769229
Will Fed raise interest rate by 75bps tomorrow?
1667458670672
lazeOAbg37YLJYRcTJm6NZLWpQy1
cpmm-1
0
3.5421404596974773
True
play
YES
public
1667287270186
Andreas Tobing
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How much Fed willl raise interest rates? Or will we see Fed pivoting on FOMC?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-11-03 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}
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1667458670672
320
andreasrtobing
1667449949860
0
https://firebasestorage.…aaf-b7b141295e50
14
0
https://firebasestorage.…969-63b601e3e165
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[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "lazeOAbg37YLJYRcTJm6NZLWpQy1", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1667287270761}]
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0.5
1667449948409
1667287394141
0.9941445227837356
0.3523400541211362
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will-i-publish-the-first-edition-of-1ee9c9d9d72d
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Will I publish the first edition of my Algorithmovigilance newsletter on Substack by the end of November?
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4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2
cpmm-1
0
2.069643973469386
True
play
NO
public
1667290999284
Brian T. Edwards
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if I publish the introductory essay on my ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Algorithmovigilance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://algorithmovigilance.substack.com/", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo...
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1669912891919
300
BTE
1669862001532
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https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c
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https://firebasestorage.…917-7887b63c36a7
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will-more-than-100-million-people-b
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Will more than 100 million people be in lockdown in China through the end of 2022?
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cpmm-1
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3.093140617965411
True
play
NO
public
1667295886584
Brian T. Edwards
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are currently more than 200 million Chinese citizens under some form of lockdown due to detection of locally transmitted Covid cases. This includes thousands currently forbidden from leaving Shanghai Disneyland until they have three consecuti...
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{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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1672249444906
420
BTE
1672249433994
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https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c
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https://firebasestorage.…bcf-53efbc62ea9b
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[{"name": "Mana Seeds Experiment", "slug": "mana-seeds-experiment", "userId": "wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2", "groupId": "ezH8vzlbGZr8W8R1duXz", "createdTime": 1668350592076}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1667301640914}, {...
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austria-will-the-ovp-agree-to-restr
54
Austria: Will the ÖVP agree to restricted questioning of Mr. Schmid for this Thursday's parliamentary in inquiry?
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cpmm-1
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play
NO
public
1667296123327
Eugen Grue
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://orf.at/stories/3291963/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://orf.at/stories/3291963/", "class": "z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:deco...
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EugenGrue
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Will Artemis I launch by EOD 11/11/22?
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cpmm-1
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6.370431907108548
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1667308106857
wasabipesto
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wasabipesto
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will-artemis-i-launch-by-eod-111822
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Will Artemis I launch by EOD 11/18/22?
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wasabipesto
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What will Ron DeSantis 2024 campaign slogan be??
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What will Liz Cheney's 2024 campaign slogan be??
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What will Kanye's 2024 campaign slogan be??
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What will Nikki Haley's 2024 campaign slogan be??
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MULTIPLE_CHOICE
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1687486081440
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What will Mike Pence's 2024 campaign slogan be??
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What will Mike Pompeo 2024 campaign slogan be??
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1667333183969
Predictor 🔥
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. ", "type": ...
BINARY
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1667419285011
260
Predictor
1667415536341
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https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
11
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…4cc-28ee9fc14b60
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["wall-street-bets"]
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{"NO": 145.78408640476144, "YES": 309.19786942155366}
0.21345751792586057
will-the-construction-of-the-space
132.05501227869664
Will the construction of the space hotel Voyager Station begin in 2026?
1798779540000
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1667333374596
Predictor 🔥
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Voyager Station, a hotel designed to travel around Earth's orbit, is set to be built by the Orbital Assembly Corporation. The construction of the space hotel is expected to begin in 2026 so that it can be operational and receive its first guest...
BINARY
{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}
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200
Predictor
1680348158497
0
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
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6
0
https://firebasestorage.…bf4-ce187c44aab4
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will-any-member-state-decide-to-lea
1409.1957492692818
Will any member state decide to leave the European Union by the end of 2023?
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ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
cpmm-1
0
2.261258593551558
True
play
YES
public
1667333756125
Predictor 🔥
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For this question to be resolved as \"Yes\", it is only necessary that a member of the EU officially notifies the European Council of its intention to leave the EU, following Article 50(2) from the Lisbon Treaty, regardless of how long the actual p...
BINARY
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1667842546055
340
Predictor
1668114812860
0
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
14
0
https://firebasestorage.…618-b90857c3152f
21
[{"name": "Improperly Resolved", "slug": "improperly-resolved", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "H4pCAtNjKfKA1dq7NCBl", "createdTime": 1667844217566}]
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will-parag-agrawal-former-twitter-c
13915.112146636977
Will Parag Agrawal (former Twitter CEO) successfully make Musk pay the full agreed severance before 2024?
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cpmm-1
0
1.2855354347104795
True
basic
NO
public
1667338423476
Jack
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jack
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1691218554107
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how-much-will-i-end-up-paying-yev-f
101.72182853802441
How much will I end up paying @Yev for my loan?
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cpmm-1
0
2.7244183553178947
True
play
MKT
public
1667340348204
cos
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cos
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did-snape-kill-dumbledore
60
||Did Snape kill Dumbledore?||
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cpmm-1
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2.6386660562262523
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play
CANCEL
public
1667342959772
Jenny
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Testing spoilers in titles. Will resolve N/A.", "type": "text"}]}]}
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1667354376524
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Jenny
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will-moldova-join-the-eu-by-2025
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adhiraj nijjer
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will-lindsay-graham-plead-the-5th-w
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Will Lindsay Graham plead the 5th when testifying before the Fulton County, Georgia Special Grand Jury?
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cpmm-1
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1667344410620
Brian T. Edwards
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if it happens. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
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1669475453366
240
BTE
1669475448490
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https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c
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1
https://firebasestorage.…55b-d2bcdd0f683c
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what-will-jd-vances-2024-campaign-s
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What will JD Vance's 2024 campaign slogan be??
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cpmm-multi-1
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play
CANCEL
public
1667344514699
Brian T. Edwards
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MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
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1687929128297
280
BTE
1681442678582
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ANYONE
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1667344631506
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what-will-tulsi-gabbard-2024-campai
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What will Tulsi Gabbard 2024 campaign slogan be??
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5.015019979827941
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1667344555236
Brian T. Edwards
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MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
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1692735191215
300
BTE
1688769697072
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https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c
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ANYONE
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1667344632010
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39JvRe2ZLI2Jdaq2AqxX
what-will-kristi-noem-2024-campaign
2
What will Kristi Noem 2024 campaign slogan be??
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cpmm-multi-1
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10.586609649448985
True
play
CANCEL
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1667344570919
Brian T. Edwards
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Big tips for most creative effort. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
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1719256286067
270
BTE
1719256286067
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https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c
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ANYONE
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what-will-aocs-2024-campaign-slogan
7
What will AOC's 2024 campaign slogan be??
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cpmm-multi-1
0
5.003055295544427
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CANCEL
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1667344615805
Brian T. Edwards
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Big tips for most creative effort. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}
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1687485800371
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what-will-don-jrs-2024-campaign-slo
14
What will Don Jr's 2024 campaign slogan be??
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cpmm-multi-1
0
5.012422314310263
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CANCEL
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1667344657298
Brian T. Edwards
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Big tips for most creative effort. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}
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1682920066190
1667344763511
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UuZcEhkNHPAqnJozJ373
what-will-chris-cristies-2024-campa
18
What will Chris Cristies 2024 campaign slogan be??
1687485754411
4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.9722245532560025
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1667344742387
Brian T. Edwards
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Big tips for most creative effort. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
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1687485754411
280
BTE
1687485736059
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https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c
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what-will-majorie-taylor-greens-202
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What will Majorie Taylor Green's 2024 campaign slogan be??
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