CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifold Dream (@ManifoldDream) is a bot that creates dreamy pictures to accompany markets. The bot is pretty damn impressive -- for example, it knows the faces of famous world leaders (Biden, Trump, Xi). It sometimes produces images with recogni...

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1672450447950

220

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1672450426756

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https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

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0.47669404902395995

is-the-giant-font-better

9

Is the new, much larger market text an improvement? (bet M$1)

1667370802846

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

2.309993427027437

True

play

CANCEL

public

1667352925491

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Average direction of each person's first $1 ", "type": "text"}]}]}

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1667370802846

140

Gigacasting

1667356883969

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https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

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0

https://firebasestorage.…425-2e44dedcbca5

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[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1667352925978}]

["manifold-6748e065087e"]

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1667356883857

1667352990991

0.47669404902395995

0.40333290175117403

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{"NO": 124.59277740357871, "YES": 289.59622775077725}

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will-pico-deem-this-market-fun

209.15206942206544

Will Pico deem this market fun?

1667980740000

HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433

cpmm-1

0

1.9580564205297062

True

play

NO

public

1667353202797

Conflux

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to Pico's judgement. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

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1668021244704

180

Conflux

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0

1

https://firebasestorage.…b20-3b4a2445bd53

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[{"name": "Proofniks", "slug": "proofniks", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "HWg8Z5SraHRjoEjHCcIJ", "createdTime": 1667355651022}]

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1667977189910

1668021308419

0.2253015639338794

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0.20416095889561103

will-i-make-a-bridge-between-manifo

857.285291703977

Will I make a bridge between Manifold Markets and Mastodon for comments, likes, shares

1688183940000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

3.078191837246648e-16

1.119919834899824

True

play

CANCEL

public

1667356119772

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note the close date is arbitrary and will almost certainly change. Resolves NO if I decide not to do it. Resolves NO if I don't get a signoff from the Manifold team. Resolves NO if I give up partway through. Otherwise resolves YES.", "type": "text"...

BINARY

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1705604738789

360

LivInTheLookingGlass

1705604738997

0.3

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

0

15

0

41

7

[{"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1667356139944}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 16...

["olivia", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "fediverse"]

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0.5

1688133194382

1705604733943

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{"NO": 344.0204018492459, "YES": 32.45547697694876}

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will-the-phillies-yes-or-the-astros

320

Will the Phillies (YES) or the Astros (NO) win Game 3 of the World Series?

1667359014650

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cpmm-1

0

3.4071991857535004

True

play

YES

public

1667356491868

journcy

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-11-02 2:00 am", "type": "text"}]}]}

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1667359014650

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journcy

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[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "7uH1XOw7dAcuF2AbQRBZVPl7JLJ2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1667356492322}, {"name": "Baseball", "slug": "baseball", "userId": "7uH1XOw7dAcuF2AbQRBZVPl7JLJ2", "groupId": "786nRQzgVyUnuUtaLTGW", "createdTime": 1667356809796}]

["sports-default", "baseball"]

0.5

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0.8526462335154619

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{"NO": 37.75245897182203, "YES": 473.3187413613092}

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will-the-phillies-yes-or-the-astros-dfee28f48102

1167.3369272144178

Will the Phillies (YES) or the Astros (NO) win Game 4 of the World Series?

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cpmm-1

0

2.570892582978915

True

play

NO

public

1667356565162

journcy

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

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1667446266826

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journcy

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7

0

https://firebasestorage.…d8d-4b395975736d

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[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "7uH1XOw7dAcuF2AbQRBZVPl7JLJ2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1667356565626}, {"name": "Baseball", "slug": "baseball", "userId": "7uH1XOw7dAcuF2AbQRBZVPl7JLJ2", "groupId": "786nRQzgVyUnuUtaLTGW", "createdTime": 1667356823193}]

["sports-default", "baseball"]

0.5

1667446213810

1667356608143

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{"NO": 138.62074407479824, "YES": 345.14225651534747}

0

will-the-phillies-yes-or-the-astros-68c2a5dbe9b1

449.90017928029863

Will the Phillies (YES) or the Astros (NO) win Game 5 of the World Series?

1667534771322

7uH1XOw7dAcuF2AbQRBZVPl7JLJ2

cpmm-1

0

1.6332081141898995

True

play

NO

public

1667356599436

journcy

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

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1667534771322

220

journcy

1667534658920

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9

0

https://firebasestorage.…4c6-30e61e53e67a

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[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "7uH1XOw7dAcuF2AbQRBZVPl7JLJ2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1667356599898}, {"name": "Baseball", "slug": "baseball", "userId": "7uH1XOw7dAcuF2AbQRBZVPl7JLJ2", "groupId": "786nRQzgVyUnuUtaLTGW", "createdTime": 1667356834082}]

["sports-default", "baseball"]

0.5

1667534656956

1667356731489

0.3322272027503296

0.7743742171342293

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{"NO": 7519.040104138689, "YES": 115.25776984370259}

1

will-there-be-a-random-number-gener

7653.2019021563165

Will there be a random number generator Manifold bot by end of November?

1669271314929

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cpmm-1

0

2.6506940795495755

True

play

YES

public

1667356670881

Jack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if by end of November there is a Manifold bot that generates random numbers upon request.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See also ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.m...

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0

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0

1669271314929

340

jack

1669301768421

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

14

0

https://firebasestorage.…fe2-23174d173003

14

[{"name": "randomization", "slug": "randomization", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "YOkz3UZsh7MkxtA4ANBZ", "createdTime": 1667356671261}]

["randomization"]

0.5

1669271307917

1669301765939

0.9819963651021928

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{"NO": 37.94176102348092, "YES": 3005.9541623618134}

0

will-vladimir-putin-meet-with-mbs-a

4139.094988926152

Will Vladimir Putin meet with MBS at the G20 conference?

1668653725562

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

3.803196689204833

True

play

NO

public

1667357623089

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Putin and MBS hold bilateral talks at the G20 Summit.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1668653725562

220

BTE

1668651223963

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

9

0

https://firebasestorage.…24e-1d938cce3427

10

[{"name": "Darth Millennial", "slug": "darth-millennial", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "EzuLPW7nvxhUcM541YZd", "createdTime": 1667433641728}, {"name": "G20", "slug": "g20", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "CS71X66XMyt5sI3CxId0", "createdTime": 1667357634303}, {"name": "Globa...

["global-macro", "g20", "darth-millennial", "mbs", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.5

1668623582137

1668651220909

False

0.006572646955918398

0.5826087838089452

5GX8Gc0ZpvKXSiM3MDmE

{"NO": 399.6830840931009, "YES": 79.83144164389874}

1

will-rishi-sunak-and-yoon-sukyeol-m

270.53852816699214

Will Rishi Sunak and Yoon Suk-yeol meet in person during 2022?

1668920460689

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

2.3275261861283365

True

play

YES

public

1667357761837

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Rishi Sunak holds in person talks with newly elected South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol before the end of 2022. Resolves NO if not. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1668920460689

160

BTE

1668920452416

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

5

0

https://firebasestorage.…fa1-1098a0f47850

6

[{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1667357817637}, {"name": "G20", "slug": "g20", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "CS71X66XMyt5sI3CxId0", "createdTime": 1667357820088}, {"name": "Prime Millenn...

["global-macro", "g20", "prime-millennial"]

0.5

1668920452303

1668920439869

0.7227295590176852

0.15243903903450048

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{"NO": 363.58660782372453, "YES": 2800.7896514258146}

0

will-joe-biden-and-vladimir-putin-a

6876.3146458120755

Will Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin agree to a prisoner swap that includes Brittney Griner by the end of November?

1669870740000

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

1.6353116394194762

True

play

NO

public

1667358182915

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if it happens. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1669912988314

540

BTE

1669858043522

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

25

0

https://firebasestorage.…76a-116229908ef5

23

[{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1667358183428}, {"name": "G20", "slug": "g20", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "CS71X66XMyt5sI3CxId0", "createdTime": 1667358211337}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russi...

["global-macro", "g20", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.5

1669858043409

1667358269005

False

0.022815460043811648

0.21002225704858724

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{"NO": 120.94445826507986, "YES": 550.889494559494}

0.055148716134598486

if-democrats-keep-senate-in-2022-wi

703.1105054405068

if democrats keep senate in 2022, will more than 500k white americans who were alive on election day 2022 have died from hurricane, tornado, flood, sudden farmland unusability, etc. disasters by election day 2024?

1667894340000

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cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1667361201336

L

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market immediately resolves N/A if democratic does not win 2022. Close time set to before election day. market does not resolve until 2024.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "see related market: ", "type...

BINARY

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200

L

1702761472847

0

https://firebasestorage.…776-643c9417e854

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0

4

https://firebasestorage.…ac3-7eb8a81e3497

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0.5

1667890744210

1702761472202

0.2214671782355214

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{"NO": 113.26636860385506, "YES": 358.84492464800843}

0.08239178425339744

if-republicans-win-senate-in-2022-w

991.6698283033802

if republicans win senate in 2022, will more than 500k white americans who were alive on election day 2022 have died from hurricane, tornado, flood, sudden farmland unusability, etc. disasters by election day 2024?

1667894340000

9pFTkULGUKcRZ8IQq3WHWNY5i983

cpmm-1

0

3.1730569944744174

True

play

CANCEL

public

1667361238712

L

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market immediately resolves N/A if democratic does not win 2022. Close time set to before election day. market does not resolve until 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "see related mar...

BINARY

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{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1668332853527

180

L

1668333620079

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https://firebasestorage.…776-643c9417e854

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0

2

https://firebasestorage.…b8e-8611a701a3b7

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0.5

1667890743442

1668333613250

0.08239178425339742

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{"NO": 222.32637840223916, "YES": 260.3675188033825}

0.54

this-market-might-resolve-to-1-mkt

216.2172997452431

This market might resolve to (1 - MKT)

1667797140000

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cpmm-1

0

1.185123852868544

True

play

MKT

public

1667363673764

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At close, one of the following will occur, where N = the number of unique traders", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If MKT >= (100 - N)%", "type": "t...

BINARY

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0

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1667797681082

260

LivInTheLookingGlass

1710462506406

0

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12

0

https://firebasestorage.…af8-a5eeb79c4bc3

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[{"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4"}, {"name": "Experimental", "slug": "experimental", "groupId": "GAn872bm0J8FT8pNYtyq"}, {"name": "🐋 Whale Watching", "slug": "whale-watching", "groupId": "5V0GjAyN99OQpb96fwo8"}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz"},...

["fun", "experimental", "whale-watching", "olivia", "short-fuse"]

0.5

False

1667797084268

1667827312538

0.54

ECKeaLmXvlBKCy1UB5Ha

what-will-be-jefferies-fy-2022-seco

1379.2187837639208

What will be Jefferies' FY 2022 secondary volume estimate?

1674511915613

4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.658461504434851

True

play

a8623b90f698

public

1667367012183

Carson Gale

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves per the FY 2022 Secondaries volume estimate from Jefferies Private Capital Advisory Group. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Volume Estimates:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "p...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1674511915613

480.00000000000006

CarsonGale

1674511890998

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https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae

2

0

ANYONE

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Will Georgia O’Keefe's painting 'Red Hills With Pedernal, White Clouds' (1936) fetch more than $8mm at auction November 9-10?

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2.2762004866897296

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YES

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Brian T. Edwards

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Will Lucian Freud's painting 'Large Interior, W11 (after Watteau)' (1981–83) fetch more than $5mm at auction November 9-10?

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