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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.593159290909359 | uuJg44rJ0XbW68870tYT | {"NO": 785.02066866155, "YES": 62.478028002765946} | 1 | will-pablo-picasso-quatre-baigneuse | 906.2352554839838 | Will Pablo Picasso 'Quatre Baigneuses' (1922) fetch more than $1mm at auction November 9-10? | 1668047208449 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.551284598794504 | True | play | YES | public | 1667428609351 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FRLEP5wAFDy.jpeg?alt=media&token=d3bfd6ba-848a-4d1e-b915-62a42037aea2", "title": null}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668047208449 | 180 | BTE | 1668047203266 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "Art Dealer", "slug": "art-dealer", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "Xj7qMWnWg7aTsuoKgerd", "createdTime": 1667428609708}] | ["art-dealer"] | 0.5 | 1668040118105 | 1668047202637 | 0.948237367745914 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6337586915471746 | n5otrFeqKz7EyA4uorTc | {"NO": 7.337021981577493, "YES": 864.1138847865931} | 0 | will-francis-bacons-painting-three | 1112.0831600865872 | Will Francis Bacon's painting 'Three Studies for Self-Portrait' (1979) fetch more than $30mm at auction November 9-10? | 1668048719118 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.532533012095644 | True | play | NO | public | 1667428769324 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FRtELC3l13b.jpeg?alt=media&token=fc77e7a8-193a-47ab-9b4a-df70a2f101da", "title": null}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668048719118 | 160 | BTE | 1668198263127 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "Art Dealer", "slug": "art-dealer", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "Xj7qMWnWg7aTsuoKgerd", "createdTime": 1667428769662}] | ["art-dealer"] | 0.5 | 1668048694700 | 1668198260969 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.8666860383208687 | tTbp7qPntVzNmTgaGeMp | {"NO": 909.7503917265387, "YES": 229.7784470017895} | 1 | will-the-fed-raise-the-fed-funds-ra-145e41c345d3 | 2663.843119543679 | Will the Fed raise the fed funds rate by at least 50 bps (0.50%) in December? | 1671040800000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.830514717321991 | True | play | YES | public | 1667429601054 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At each of the Fed's last 4 meetings, they've raised the fed funds rate 75 bps (0.75%). How much will they raise at their next meeting in December? Resolves YES if they raise the rate by at least the amount specified in the title, otherwise NO.", "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671047009669 | 320 | jack | 1671046992479 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1667429601576}, {"name": "Federal reserve", "slug": "federal-reserve", "userId": "H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1", "groupId": "Dtx5Ll2hayivzG8YPHbE", "createdTime": 1669247368477... | ["economics-default", "federal-reserve"] | 0.5 | 1670977702836 | 1671046989233 | 0.96 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.7830178126977381 | WrPx6B8d70gRD1wPMpaa | {"NO": 712.2940593798262, "YES": 193.61317586011128} | 1 | will-ned-lamont-be-reelected-govern | 439.53581821521357 | Will Ned Lamont be reelected governor of CT? | 1667883600000 | JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.0868318689921592 | True | play | YES | public | 1667430896398 | Ibozz91 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668351106014 | 300 | Ibozz91 | 1667880021426 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 2 | 11 | [{"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1667436330318}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 166... | ["us-2022-midterms", "us-2022-elections"] | 0.5 | 1667880021191 | 1667432914331 | 0.9299530768876992 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.13898493726446898 | YvZMbbNxks2oHd58iPPy | {"NO": 458.6426584415957, "YES": 3896.196784308411} | 0 | will-twitter-acquire-the-us-assets | 5509.555448897616 | Will Twitter acquire the US assets of TikTok by the end of 2023? | 1704059750453 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0.020498294504102746 | 1.448569698796844 | True | play | NO | public | 1667433697046 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704059750453 | 660 | BTE | 1710451931604 | 1.1 | 32 | 0 | 12 | [{"name": "TikTok", "slug": "tiktok", "groupId": "MjTB5PFWedvqLHXO0vKz"}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "📈 Global Macro", "slug"... | ["tiktok", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "global-macro"] | 0.13338122795650673 | 0.5 | 1704059743491 | 1667433768316 | 0.02 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21086140882784687 | dPwQ4AcF4010oq707nYe | {"NO": 350.5216949555596, "YES": 3865.2078472029098} | 0 | will-the-supreme-leader-of-iran-ali-d0fb6e6144f2 | 7802.233450988211 | Will the Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei die in 2023? | 1704027540000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.222645668312183 | True | play | NO | public | 1667433871457 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nov 2, 8:04pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will the Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei die in 2022?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will the Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei die in 2023?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704085618104 | 620 | BTE | 1704085618758 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "Iran", "slug": "iran", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "E1hI0LQPWmoAcpvhcjHa", "createdTime": 1667433871959}, {"name": "New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 16862691... | ["iran", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1703380681799 | 1667434022118 | 0.02 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5008876283346644 | ojOvhT0tDZ0NnhDJL0QK | {"NO": 156.16438724746612, "YES": 69.55667103236131} | 1 | at-the-end-of-these-3-questions-wil | 416.9794168498921 | At the end of these 3 questions, will anyone be standing? | 1667434896215 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7733263070703518 | True | play | YES | public | 1667434021546 | Austin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Have you visited San Francisco before?", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Have you taken CS 11?", "type": "text"}]}... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667434896215 | 340 | Austin | 1667434885514 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 14 | 0.5 | 1667434885323 | 1667434763271 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6210270911699178 | 3LbeGVVyUqAU2Lo1roub | {"NO": 1871.9324121628194, "YES": 42.69501154996391} | 1 | buy-no-to-give-me-incentive-to-put | 1782.1021061716647 | Buy NO to give me incentive to put away 4 loads of laundry tonight | 1667460918639 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.0911270311398256 | True | play | YES | public | 1667435558225 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if I get it all done ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO otherwise", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667460918639 | 260 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1710462487436 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4"}, {"name": "Commitment Devices", "slug": "commitment-devices", "groupId": "ISVja50LAxuGN0QqycWz"}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz"}, {"name": "Short fuse", "slug": "short-fuse", "groupId": "a2ab3b95-588a-4e45-a85... | ["fun", "commitment-devices", "olivia", "short-fuse", "royal-funeral"] | 0.5 | 1667460908543 | 1667436041809 | 0.9726299566688332 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.42260997717094806 | iwZX0gkneEgSrqVQKVzW | {"NO": 855.1951251208311, "YES": 1164.071244475685} | 0.3496865155148947 | will-putin-die-before-2030 | 2063.3660805044015 | Will Putin die before 2030? | 1925614740000 | m7pXnl9knhVqo0MWZrNruSRLhst1 | cpmm-1 | 0.17385945536622363 | 9.822200177983246 | False | basic | public | 1667436092625 | Joe | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.0355580728574862, "platformFee": 2.0355580728574862, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | joel777 | 1716194880608 | 2.3 | 25 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1669072096563}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "m7pXnl9knhVqo0MWZrNruSRLhst1", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1668894209332}, {"name": "Putin L... | ["politics-default", "russia", "putin-assassination-markets", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.1489131498420854 | 0.5 | 1716194877255 | 1685922448207 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.6410780523788436 | zHounZzYtQSTqirhP8qF | {"NO": 109.39454703840669, "YES": 3679.873807267054} | 0 | will-there-be-at-least-3-destiny-fa | 7070.080616348291 | Will there be at least 3 Destiny fans in the top-5 leaderboard of the Destiny.gg group by 2023? | 1672559940000 | 9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.0874635035731504 | True | basic | NO | public | 1667494908456 | arae | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the same vein as ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "L4aTo2c8hHbI5ywPhj5h", "label": "/Yev/a-destiny-fan-is-one-of-top-5-trade"}}, {"text": ", this market resolves YES if the top 5 users in the ", "type": "text"}, {... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672604595309 | 1180 | a | 1710218632790 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 1 | 28 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1672555336761 | 1672954990678 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.6222763253155611 | 23WHv8kjHoI7rvhzGNUr | {"NO": 434.9852264040688, "YES": 77.75990560610738} | 1 | will-robert-motherwell-open-no-25-i | 716.3120314840781 | Will Robert Motherwell 'Open No. 25: In Blue with Variations' (1968) fetch more than $1.2mm at auction on November 17th? | 1668711179453 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.5214549344389305 | True | play | YES | public | 1667495022400 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FxkG11mYNwN.webp?alt=media&token=d56bd868-a545-4cef-8e12-54f9f80c70a8", "title": null}}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 1}, "content": [{"t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668711179453 | 160 | BTE | 1668711173505 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "Art Dealer", "slug": "art-dealer", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "Xj7qMWnWg7aTsuoKgerd", "createdTime": 1667495022727}] | ["art-dealer"] | 0.5 | 1668315717158 | 1668711172370 | 0.902111359528366 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5923640501827366 | zhe8Qy4bwAbXa92UjXN1 | {"NO": 48.0086477402294, "YES": 428.5545445894368} | 0 | will-jeanmichel-basquiats-painting | 1234.34625796832 | Will Jean-Michel Basquiat's painting 'To Repel Ghosts' (1984) fetch more than $10mm at auction on November 17th? | 1668655754297 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.415169887567703 | True | play | NO | public | 1667495195522 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FH92VJ_raVj.jpeg?alt=media&token=9377734e-222d-4ab3-ad51-02d4c7bf5016", "title": null}}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 1}, "content": [{"t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668655754297 | 200 | BTE | 1668655747783 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "Art Dealer", "slug": "art-dealer", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "Xj7qMWnWg7aTsuoKgerd", "createdTime": 1667495195978}] | ["art-dealer"] | 0.5 | 1668655734803 | 1668655746155 | 0.7668598277111801 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4350381689329898 | bIdWZHf8dT42FmVcW04Z | {"NO": 16.497820298959255, "YES": 1816.7208874925795} | 0 | how-will-nicholas-charettes-biden-s | 2518.2951370226383 | How will Nicholas Charette's Biden self-resolving market resolve? | 1667523369934 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.587883942742875 | True | play | NO | public | 1667495272815 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the same resolution as this market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/NicholasCharette73b6/will-biden-be-president-on-october", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667523369934 | 160 | jack | 1667523367556 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1667495273169}, {"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV", "createdTime... | ["predictions-on-predictions", "free-money"] | 0.5 | 1667523363757 | 1667519030851 | 0.027983422195927594 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5786239654369718 | ztnAvU3DteyhC2h4GIYC | {"NO": 504.6312158606238, "YES": 52.157382561381915} | 1 | will-alexander-calders-sculpture-pe | 604.0992643732362 | Will Alexander Calder's sculpture 'Petite croix' (1968) fetch more than $4.5mm at auction on November 17th? | 1668047163174 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.853290950565453 | True | play | YES | public | 1667495567361 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FR5WkVwD4pA.jpeg?alt=media&token=3ef2ed51-fc95-4748-bd9b-9e1d5d0451dc", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"leve... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668047163174 | 140 | BTE | 1668047159654 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "Art Dealer", "slug": "art-dealer", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "Xj7qMWnWg7aTsuoKgerd", "createdTime": 1667495567697}] | ["art-dealer"] | 0.5 | 1668047154360 | 1668047157605 | 0.7668740818114617 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.48265593634309245 | PwuQn1d8xdBQbNYiZNTW | {"NO": 184.13687777302178, "YES": 218.08845842790763} | 0 | will-i-keep-weighing-in-and-faithfu | 40 | Will I keep weighing in and faithfully tracking my calorie input for the next 10 days? | 1668373465270 | zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.628279395116583 | True | play | NO | public | 1667497465244 | Rai | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if every day between today and market close I weigh myself and track everything I eat in a fitness app.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Today and final day both inclusive", "type"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668373465270 | 200 | agentydragon | 1668255916637 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1667497465657}] | ["personal-goals"] | 0.5 | 1668255916470 | 1667497530320 | 0.4406251093352232 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5601181347174851 | N3QG77Qz57OIcJ3tc3te | {"NO": 778.6770509646365, "YES": 24563.94872603775} | 0 | will-givewell-say-that-dispensers-f | 32377.960439975952 | Will GiveWell say that Dispensers for Safe Water are less than 6.5x as effective as GiveDirectly before 2024? | 1704067140000 | lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.2249423276352589 | True | basic | NO | public | 1667497664355 | Nathan Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The spirit of this question is if, before 2024, ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "g1bJmyJPveUZTF9LdBHo6mliRX53", "label": "SpacedOutMatt"}}, {"text": "'s criticism will be judged roughly correct. le will GiveWell reduce some ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704666366473 | 5560 | NathanpmYoung | 1704666366785 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c | 4 | 27 | 0 | 2 | 9 | [{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1667497664773}, {"name": "GiveWell", "slug": "givewell", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "7VQzGsVwfMWEtsIREYQE", "createdTime": 1667498845441}, {... | ["effective-altruism", "givewell", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1704053285674 | 1704289880890 | 0.04 | lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.827481153306474 | xvHin2mUhA610sCgx17a | {"NO": 5530.690459794318, "YES": 63.87794597505018} | 1 | will-the-total-number-of-goals-scor | 13585.766536661631 | Will the total number of goals scored in the 2022 FIFA World Cup be higher than the 169 total goals scored in the 2018 FIFA World Cup? | 1671494340000 | 7uLpXRz4vJZO9Gbolmy298HQTov2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.725460632020685 | True | play | YES | public | 1667497765773 | Francisco Lourenço | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to \"YES\" if the total number of goals scored in the 2022 FIFA World Cup is higher and not equal to 169 goals. It will resolve to \"NO\" if the total number of goals scored in the 2022 FIFA World Cup is below and equal to 16... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671619092532 | 380 | franlouco | 1671577978773 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 16 | [{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1667498264297}] | ["2022-fifa-world-cup"] | 0.5 | 1671427094125 | 1671577975886 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6201714795607112 | AARUHnciUzvklkH7FDNg | {"NO": 1015.0990668650121, "YES": 2857.6397649479477} | 0.36708709504065096 | will-an-ai-prove-the-infinitude-of | 16305.7733454387 | Will a blank-slate AI prove the infinitude of primes by 2025-11-03? | 1762235940000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0.00700161020119735 | 4.191727867318171 | False | basic | public | 1667498896075 | Bolton Bailey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves YES if an AI is able to prove that there are infinitely many prime numbers by the close date.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The AI has to operate without human-generated traini... | BINARY | {"day": 0.010287442022076265, "week": -0.032912904959349065, "month": -0.032912904959349065} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.689652346468044, "platformFee": 7.563591864246805, "liquidityFee": 0} | 47.529076450987404 | 2035 | BoltonBailey | 1720212858037 | 1.1 | 6 | 122 | 1 | 60 | [{"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1667498907464}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1667498903665}, {"name": "Technical AI Time... | ["technical-ai-timelines", "ai", "mathematics", "technology-default", "prime-numbers"] | 0.1479017504600189 | 0.5 | 1720212854862 | 1708544820198 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5935365595236921 | i6BaaKScM0zNnrIPxF5p | {"NO": 339.28149748201895, "YES": 212.09074799824361} | 0.7002357483058451 | will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside-c1d838ebd643 | 138.3838926556814 | Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election posses a postgraduate degree at the time of election | 1734328740000 | klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1667503048101 | Scott Owens | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question is dependent on the if a canidate posses a postgraduate degree(MS/MA, PhD, JD, MD, etc) at the time of election. The degree can be from a foreign institution and it can be from a nationally or regionally accredited instution to count.... | BINARY | {"day": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": 3.3306690738754696e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 260 | ScottOwens | 1710456592250 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgffBcgGMCdsWkiQam-f88cvnxvy8nu9Moyl4xsrQ=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "Future US Presidents", "slug": "future-us-presidents", "groupId": "AaVOlWucYC9VeWQN6zYG"}, {"nam... | ["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "future-us-presidents", "ancient-markets", "scotts-presidential-markets"] | 0.5 | 1686193232794 | 1667504638896 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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