CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

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1668032006994

1668035481322

0.18484288354898312

0.038497190261607805

iOVGVw5ZZG9fkvczOfUi

{"NO": 375.3728547197578, "YES": 923.9982061486414}

0.016005269220340127

benchmark-gap-2-once-we-have-an-alg

577.9905404129446

Benchmark Gap #2: Once we have an algorithm with human level sample efficiency for major RL benchmarks, how many years will it be before there is an algorithm with human level sample efficiency on essentially all AAA video game tasks?

2209017600000

acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2

cpmm-1

0.007862784895972558

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1668030183348

Vincent Luczkow

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the purposes of this question, major RL benchmarks are ALE, Minecraft, chess, go, and Starcraft II. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sample efficiency: the number of frames/games/amount of...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.005626719206735358, "platformFee": 0.005626719206735358, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

390

vluzko

1714880432806

1.1

https://firebasestorage.…f7b-ff4904405776

7

0

https://firebasestorage.…e8f-22b92b1a4529

7

[{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1668030183594}]

["technical-ai-timelines"]

0.1129965821344313

0.05

1714880429475

1668030320673

0.8985018270259427

njoQUfULSbZLPNog5pqx

{"NO": 853.4088715554824, "YES": 174.58552906362232}

1

will-all-4-of-the-khersoneoy-market

1213.8170984008505

Will all 4 of the Kherson-EoY markets resolve the same way?

1668834281549

Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2

cpmm-1

0

4.584959342011706

True

play

YES

public

1668031214956

Jenny

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if all of the following markets are resolved the same way:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "gridCardsComponent", "attrs": {"contractIds": "6Hdcbw4ClJstVRKpkOli,rHJN1FwIvUbF1GvqE9JM,AQZwx0IyMHJOLBEZ9BEc,r1pE3P9RYSJs...

BINARY

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0

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0

1668834281549

230

Jenny

1668468745613

0

https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0

11

0

https://firebasestorage.…b29-69cab3ca0e15

11

[{"name": "Insurance", "slug": "insurance", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "kqp0AgdFL7ZRDhZDOHa7", "createdTime": 1668209650361}, {"name": "Ukraine Counteroffensive", "slug": "ukraine-counteroffensive", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "2i6fbccCzqrKyYbLXRrG", "createdTime": 166...

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0.5

1668468745464

1668031236125

0.977412496257551

0.28694925177739045

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{"NO": 146.27218310921432, "YES": 988.9311376590122}

0

will-scoria-be-slain-by-the-end-of-a18ff6048229

2221.837643484816

Will scoria be slain by the end of TOS ep 88?

1668127615071

qCvVf3QGufaiKK3FG35rJ4ShXmp2

cpmm-1

0

1.950632885225479

True

play

NO

public

1668032035963

The Church of Shulkanism

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve to YES if yes, NO if no.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1668127615071

290

TheChurchofShulkanism

1668127562205

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2kj8vKlhoMNqLbdruhyWI_xYRZ3XOa5Ttzv391=s96-c

15

0

https://firebasestorage.…ca7-29e8c8946136

14

[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "qCvVf3QGufaiKK3FG35rJ4ShXmp2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1668032036199}]

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0.5

1668127562097

1668114654296

0.056178509249175376

0.7935624275262957

1scrMfWPSBZcazBgJk9o

{"NO": 8950.0090365762, "YES": 804.8619858898206}

1

will-sbf-be-criminally-charged-conn

10592.880462781546

Will SBF be criminally charged connected to his actions at FTX by end of 2023?

1670942318731

yRx5TswGklVtUPv4nGbF9vn3qeh1

cpmm-1

0

0.5812996486495607

True

basic

YES

public

1668032451188

Andrew Conner

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if Sam Bankman-Fried is criminally charged related to FTX's implosion by Dec 31 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to NO if Sam Bankman-Fried is not charged criminally by Dec 21 2023.", "...

BINARY

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0

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0

1670942318731

1390

andrew

1670942311716

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu8dVo0ar9NEqnGDYFDCxgHfLFx9sv6__wtlUGi1CI4=s96-c

0

60

0

56

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0.5

1670909729219

1670942308215

0.98

0.18923473568092053

qSXtLLkTZeCkGFHKA1Ff

{"NO": 357.9471690514092, "YES": 1581.5537467186527}

0

is-it-true-that-sbf-has-declared-or

2360.6705983815473

Is it true that SBF has declared or filed for bankruptcy?

1670648340000

FPs5hzoibSUgBLOEexZTAQO4kfm1

cpmm-1

0

1.3775401525140047

True

play

NO

public

1668033149846

Ophelia

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Someone on Twitter claims this: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/Crypto_Crib_/status/1590444120308592640", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/Crypto_Crib_/status/1590444120308592640", ...

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1670651463378

490

Ophelia

1670638840853

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjHJ7fDIclHMksPAWYaVwA8WNC_yVZpTf-g4hNO=s96-c

25

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…9d0-d7931cb59ff4

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[{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "FPs5hzoibSUgBLOEexZTAQO4kfm1", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1668033150069}, {"name": "FTX Liquidity Crunch (Nov 2022)", "slug": "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "groupId": "DwXE6sNMFQ8hnEq...

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0.5

1670638840744

1670638792007

0.05

0.5609414873071416

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{"NO": 201.08922418888335, "YES": 180.22444843386242}

0

will-i-lose-power-in-orlando-from-h

81.18476255995533

Will I lose power in Orlando from Hurricane Nicole?

1668124740000

m8qHjtzoWGejcDhFIj3KaVKWND03

cpmm-1

0

1.724913272326562

True

play

NO

public

1668036626369

Yaakov Saxon

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BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1668184817330

190

YaakovSaxon

1668184841921

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmlbusb0JiypZfcsCfiYsFipytmFCVVcuSLOn9BM=s96-c

7

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…7b1-0360e46ebc6f

8

[{"name": "Weather", "slug": "weather", "userId": "m8qHjtzoWGejcDhFIj3KaVKWND03", "groupId": "Vw7PuCkPJlK51z43wA4k", "createdTime": 1668036626604}]

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0.5

1668107141840

1668184838671

0.587715564882072

qsykQSPTijlb1uCEZxO3

how-will-a-blankslate-ai-first-prov

36

How will a blank-slate AI first prove the infinitude of primes?

1893455940000

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1668040128114

Bolton Bailey

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MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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0

460

BoltonBailey

1685261126048

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https://firebasestorage.…636-412c606f9103

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0

DISABLED

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["mathematics", "ai", "ancient-markets"]

1685261125878

1668043585497

True

0.14901858648106622

9kB8BYSLZAaJujBAuWgz

{"NO": 189.3829297723598, "YES": 987.8330843158456}

0

will-the-ftx-future-fund-have-stabl

4761.842564043073

Will the FTX Future Fund have stable assets >=1B$ at the start of 2023?

1698557890668

31a3xolxUIXWNIJq6wHwEdqPnRs2

cpmm-1

0

2.95846231712789

True

play

NO

public

1668045547873

Alastair Fraser

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BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1698557890668

270

AlastairFraser

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0

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12

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[{"name": "Finance", "slug": "finance", "userId": "31a3xolxUIXWNIJq6wHwEdqPnRs2", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1668045548206}]

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0.5

1680433823884

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0.03

0.14164703011013108

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{"NO": 210.5334037595124, "YES": 10997.503334408357}

0

will-the-ftx-future-fund-have-stabl-19dca769c104

12651.632959587156

Will the FTX Future Fund have stable assets >=100M$ at the start of 2023?

1698806294023

31a3xolxUIXWNIJq6wHwEdqPnRs2

cpmm-1

0

2.2796204037037477

True

play

NO

public

1668045608095

Alastair Fraser

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To what extent will FTX Future have access to assests (presumably diversified pre-collapse) in a reasonably stable manner to fund further work?", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1698806294023

410

AlastairFraser

1698808096586

0

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19

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1692211370262

1698808095589

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0.6555567246778611

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{"NO": 943.9609522174479, "YES": 115.12244439326992}

1

will-emily-be-single-by-her-16th-bi

3342.250070369826

Will Emily be single by her 16th birthday?

1673835240000

oWghDBjDGJYdvagS4rrUp9hFamJ2

cpmm-1

0

1.9687336534447326

True

play

YES

public

1668046402240

El

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1676431594404

270

el

1673776544636

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14

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https://firebasestorage.…21e-9cf96db19d8d

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[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "oWghDBjDGJYdvagS4rrUp9hFamJ2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1668046402508}, {"name": "Dating", "slug": "dating", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "j3ZE8fkeqiKmRGumy3O1", "createdTime": 1668198678311}]

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0.5

1673776542229

1668511464237

0.94

0.3854886278934914

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{"NO": 956.6934872487475, "YES": 482.91420801745323}

0.554

sp-500-price-jan-1-2024-20007000

1130.7797675571474

S&P 500 price Jan 1, 2024 (2000-7000)

1704088740000

iXe4dgGJeehxdnxDDjXpOXrErPg1

cpmm-1

0

0.5641596356377664

True

play

MKT

public

1668049727634

Nicholas Charette

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the last close price of the S&P 500 at the end of 2023. If the price is greater than 7000, resolves to 7000. If the price is less than 2000, resolves to 2000.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": ...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

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1704153229048

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NicholasCharette73b6

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[{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO"}, {"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani"}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e"}, {"name": "S&P 500", "slug": "sp-50...

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0.34971199999999997

1703931824147

1668140518401

0.554

iXe4dgGJeehxdnxDDjXpOXrErPg1

0.5810831861096759

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{"NO": 218.41823137566922, "YES": 291.088673736243}

0.5100000000000001

if-scotus-rules-in-favor-of-state-l

918.7956409566367

IF SCOTUS rules in FAVOR of state legislatures in Moore v. Harper before 2024, will a Republican win the 2024 Presidential election?

1706908682954

iXe4dgGJeehxdnxDDjXpOXrErPg1

cpmm-1

1.247293635545665

1.3444104999823216

True

play

CANCEL

public

1668050173673

Nicholas Charette

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A if SCOTUS does not rule in favor of state legislatures in Moore v. Harper before 2024. Otherwise, resolves YES if a Republican wins the 2024 Presidential election in the United States and NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "pa...

BINARY

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1706908694743

270

NicholasCharette73b6

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https://firebasestorage.…22f-86b84e85b364

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[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "iXe4dgGJeehxdnxDDjXpOXrErPg1", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1668050181237}, {"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "userId": "iXe4dgGJeehxdnxDDjXpOXrErPg1", "groupId": "ELCKhzulQFwYzmSyaOnx", "createdTime": 1668050173937}, {"name": "US Poli...

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1693875497722

1687995936336

0.51

iXe4dgGJeehxdnxDDjXpOXrErPg1

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0.5839177623345375

if-scotus-rules-against-state-legis

737.4322152541863

IF SCOTUS rules AGAINST state legislatures in Moore v. Harper before 2024, will a Republican win the 2024 Presidential election?

1735711140000

iXe4dgGJeehxdnxDDjXpOXrErPg1

cpmm-1

0.4855568327787661

9.675941326977144

False

basic

public

1668050258814

Nicholas Charette

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A if SCOTUS does not rule against state legislatures in Moore v. Harper before 2024. Otherwise, resolves YES if a Republican wins the 2024 Presidential election in the United States and NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragr...

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250

1000

NicholasCharette73b6

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[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "iXe4dgGJeehxdnxDDjXpOXrErPg1", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1668050422259}, {"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "userId": "iXe4dgGJeehxdnxDDjXpOXrErPg1", "groupId": "ELCKhzulQFwYzmSyaOnx", "createdTime": 1668050259066}, {"name": "US Poli...

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conditional-on-a-democrat-winning-t

248.11317435487285

Conditional on a Democrat winning the U.S. Presidency in 2024, will I think that some Republicans or Republican supporters attempted to use violence to install a different President before the first 3 months of the new administration?

1730444340000

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cpmm-1

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10.586609649448985

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1668052858965

arae

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https://firebasestorage.…eeb-38cac28389f5

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will-this-market-lead-to-a-confiden

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0.7917336732848299

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1713671940000

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LivInTheLookingGlass

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Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

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LivInTheLookingGlass

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Will SpinLaunch have a successful launch by EoY 2028?

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3.078191837246648e-16

9.61280465204782

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Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

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1668054798137

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1704095940000

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cpmm-1

0.3914369789411898

2.03972742479167

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play

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1668055331933

Ozy Brennan

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AMPLIFIED ODDS 10x: Will Binance suspend withdrawals for more than a 7 day period before the end of 2023?

1703505108554

Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02

cpmm-1

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0.561895427200584

True

basic

NO

public

1668055532100

Andy Martin

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1703505108554

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AndyMartin

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amplified-odds-10x-will-coinbase-su

918.5776416192244

AMPLIFIED ODDS 10x: Will Coinbase suspend withdrawals for more than a 7 day period before the end of 2023?

1703505094257

Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02

cpmm-1

0

1.165495871187012

True

play

CANCEL

public

1668055693291

Andy Martin

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AndyMartin

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will-george-condos-painting-jesus-f

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Will George Condo’s painting ‘Jesus’ fetch more than $600K at auction this month?

1668475785535

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cpmm-1

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2.3825884814542206

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NO

public

1668058804446

Brian T. Edwards

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1668475785535

150

BTE

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[{"name": "Art Dealer", "slug": "art-dealer", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "Xj7qMWnWg7aTsuoKgerd", "createdTime": 1668058804659}]

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will-lycan-play-a-guitar-song-on-de

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Will Lycan play a guitar song on Destiny's stream by November 18 for DGG?

1668545095732

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cpmm-1

0

1.4604200900757025

True

basic

YES

public

1668065661969

dgg4life

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market will resolve YES if Lycan, Orbiter, plays a guitar song for dgg chat on Destiny's stream during break time.", "type": "text"}]}]}

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1668545095732

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dgg4life

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[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "dhPxCZ3om1cnrS3vrvqRTT9wpwj1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1668065662197}]

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{"NO": 894.180641572801, "YES": 10758.997514768684}

0

will-mr-moutan-manage-to-rank-in-th

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Will Mr. Mouton manage to rank in the Top 3 for Buddy of The Year?

1673288710335

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cpmm-1

0

0.34212752941053237

True

basic

NO

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1668065761305

dgg4life

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market will resolve YES if Mr. Mouton places at least third in BOTY.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nov 10, 8:43am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will Mr. Moutan manage to rank in the Top 3 for Buddy of The Year?",...

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1673288710335

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dgg4life

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[{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}]

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0.8577150860828674

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will-radical-liberal-raphael-warnoc

7328.61877192929

Will Radical Liberal Raphael Warnock win the Runoff Election with DGG door knocking efforts?

1670391934745

dhPxCZ3om1cnrS3vrvqRTT9wpwj1

cpmm-1

0

1.5196510724917252

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YES

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1668065902897

dgg4life

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve YES if Raphael Warnock manages to defeat Republican Candidate Walker in the Georgia Runoff Elections for Senate with DGG door-knocking efforts.", "type": "text"}]}]}

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1670391934745

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dgg4life

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will-the-destiny-sneako-bridge-be-s

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Will the Destiny - Sneako bridge be standing by Jan. 31st 2023?

1675205940000

dhPxCZ3om1cnrS3vrvqRTT9wpwj1

cpmm-1

0.36361498179801277

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basic

YES

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1668066107667

dgg4life

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve YES if relations with Sneako stand to be amicable by Jan. 31st 2023.", "type": "text"}]}]}

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Will Wayne Thiebaud's painting 'Single Triple Decker' fetch more than $2mm at auction on November 17th?

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cpmm-1

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cpmm-1

9.234575511739943e-16

2.4405590130799033

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MKT

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Mikhail Samin⚡️

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When will the next UK general election after 2019 occur?

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cpmm-multi-1

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cpmm-1

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Will Willem de Kooning's painting 'The Hat Upstairs' (1987) fetch more than $12mm at auction on November 16th?

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cpmm-1

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