p
string
id
string
pool
string
prob
string
slug
string
volume
string
dpmPool
string
question
string
realAnte
string
closeTime
string
creatorId
string
mechanism
string
startPool
string
totalBets
string
dailyScore
string
elasticity
string
isResolved
string
marketTier
string
resolution
string
visibility
string
createdTime
string
creatorName
string
description
string
outcomeType
string
probChanges
string
subsidyPool
string
totalShares
string
collectedFees
string
phantomShares
string
volume24Hours
string
resolutionTime
string
totalLiquidity
string
creatorUsername
string
lastUpdatedTime
string
popularityScore
string
creatorAvatarUrl
string
likedByUserCount
string
uniqueBettorCount
string
cfmmConversionTime
string
uniqueBettorCountDay
string
addAnswersMode
string
answers
string
bountyLeft
string
bountyTxns
string
closeEmailsSent
string
conversionScore
string
coverImageUrl
string
creatorCreatedTime
string
deleted
string
followerCount
string
freshnessScore
string
groupLinks
string
groupSlugs
string
importanceScore
string
initialProbability
string
isPolitics
string
isRanked
string
isSubsidized
string
lastBetTime
string
lastCommentTime
string
loverUserId1
string
loverUserId2
string
matchCreatorId
string
nonPredictive
string
resolutionProbability
string
resolutions
string
resolverId
string
shouldAnswersSumToOne
string
sort
string
totalBounty
string
unlistedById
string
username
string
viewCount
string
wasDpm
string
0.21246798095127944
lwFS8aEfeI789wjoaonP
{"NO": 186.73914629560184, "YES": 1007.3173477983662}
1
will-my-family-dog-bosco-die-in-the
950.9909111509539
Will my family dog Bosco die in the next 10 months?
1694044740000
5NN550i6nAaDd3NfaKrI3QHPXPJ3
cpmm-1
0
2.138654847855447
True
play
YES
public
1667769234175
Ben Gale
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bosco is a puggle, they have a lifespan of 12-14 years, he was born roughly 10/5/10. He leads a semi-active lifestyle but appears pretty chubby and is beginning to have difficulty on walks and hikes.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1694554367158
290
BenGale
1694463821904
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3HkUkYRJWAjnw6rczch8QcXmM3ChBQrr-xovdH=s96-c
16
0
2
https://firebasestorage.…021-e295a7e133df
11
[{"name": "Gale Family", "slug": "gale-family", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "KunXfiULYjO4H7qF7mV6", "createdTime": 1670743908548}]
["gale-family"]
0.5
1693981019545
1694463821337
0.05
0.5523903806171729
qtrNrOyTXaaKVh85sLtT
{"NO": 8.929348876858569, "YES": 361.95567264882936}
0
gaat-de-osf-meer-dan-1-zetel-krijge
421
Gaat de OSF meer dan 1 zetel krijgen in de eerste kamer na de provinciale statenverkiezingen van 2023
1678997409419
q5BZmeurzxVoDxhQUBTwmMlwmRv1
cpmm-1
0
5.073239515778555
True
play
NO
public
1667772710060
EHenk
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dus 2 of meer. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1678997616349
70
EHenk
1678997648176
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1EJBy_ZuG6I2grKnurkchgJOqvt0DlzhLUibRJ=s96-c
2
0
https://firebasestorage.…7cc-2e5fb65ac557
3
[{"name": "Nederland", "slug": "nederland", "userId": "q5BZmeurzxVoDxhQUBTwmMlwmRv1", "groupId": "bhrat2biKksU578PIonQ", "createdTime": 1667772710450}]
["nederland"]
0.5
1678996751923
1678997483258
0.03
T5KkweXtNHbIuZ28v25T
who-will-the-next-scotus-justice-to
1113.0946369078308
Who will the next SCOTUS Justice to leave the court be?
1925009940000
k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1667773396329
Olivia🏳️‍⚧️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If it's multiple justices simultaneously, this market will resolve to an per-person split of all correct answers (eg: if there were 11 Justices and all 11 left, it would resolve with each current member AND 2 shares on A Justice not yet seated", "t...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 8.311570247929021, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
LivInTheLookingGlass
1719870260495
0
https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97
18
1
DISABLED
[{"id": "488a69fb7088", "prob": 0.014097565877783042, "text": "John Roberts", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.002718674628177, "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 419.7955167560797, "textFts": "'john':1 'robert':2", "contractId": "T5KkweXtNHbIuZ28v25T", "createdTime": 1667773396329, "probChan...
https://firebasestorage.…f82-b5054e32452b
7
[{"name": "US Judiciary ", "slug": "us-judiciary", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "fn3K66FEEdix860EzTJU", "createdTime": 1667773569868}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1667773565580}, {"na...
["us-politics", "olivia", "politics-default", "us-judiciary", "scotus"]
1719870257308
1667773525800
True
True
0.3523866580692364
JZ13JDXN7Qbmb11nCSNb
{"NO": 278.832023528097, "YES": 219.3161160640144}
0.9
is-a-paleo-diet-an-effective-way-to
122.09146777961246
Is a paleo diet an effective way to reduce obesity in the short-term?
1669006740000
atBYxynp8fZmwnsWIlwGVCaCc7G3
cpmm-1
0
1.443802027210312
True
play
MKT
public
1667775111194
rev
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will spend about 5 hours reviewing articles related to the Paleo diet and resolve this market after my review with a probability reflecting my confidence in a YES answer to this question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "para...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669417367580
260
rev
1669006719997
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0bW0uUrwCDJgzKycl_0OE20nVSYni-CdyqE6Hh=s96-c
11
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…d82-83bb1804016e
14
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "atBYxynp8fZmwnsWIlwGVCaCc7G3", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1667775111493}, {"name": "Health", "slug": "health", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1667776112181}]
["science-default", "health"]
0.5
1669006719857
1667852604569
0.9
0.2519618033385218
xu5GkRPSXDucgAa9Owbi
{"NO": 281.88360508577625, "YES": 474.53457681326205}
0.15
is-a-paleo-diet-an-effective-recomm
395.2291647505293
Is a paleo diet an effective recommendation to prevent obesity in the long-term?
1669006740000
atBYxynp8fZmwnsWIlwGVCaCc7G3
cpmm-1
0
1.4606667779379543
True
play
MKT
public
1667775289247
rev
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will spend about 5 hours reviewing articles related to the Paleo diet and resolve this market after my review with a probability reflecting my confidence in a YES answer to this question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "para...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669417409307
330
rev
1669006719113
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0bW0uUrwCDJgzKycl_0OE20nVSYni-CdyqE6Hh=s96-c
17
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…7d9-99d0f4eaf294
19
[{"name": "Health", "slug": "health", "userId": "atBYxynp8fZmwnsWIlwGVCaCc7G3", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1667775289482}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1667776119773}]
["health", "science-default"]
0.5
1669006719007
1667852569267
0.15
0.6770310471152626
YZ1zm07C6nBKF1F7IkE0
{"NO": 554.3791480102141, "YES": 244.20876155826718}
0.98
is-the-paleo-diet-better-than-a-wes
804.8913132320545
Is the paleo diet better than a "Western Pattern Diet"?
1669006740000
atBYxynp8fZmwnsWIlwGVCaCc7G3
cpmm-1
0
1.3076669455158978
True
play
MKT
public
1667775392321
rev
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will spend about 5 hours reviewing articles related to the Paleo diet and resolve this market after my review with a probability reflecting my confidence in a YES answer to this question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "para...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669417618288
330
rev
1669006718531
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0bW0uUrwCDJgzKycl_0OE20nVSYni-CdyqE6Hh=s96-c
18
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…25c-109567172391
21
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "atBYxynp8fZmwnsWIlwGVCaCc7G3", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1667775392541}, {"name": "Health", "slug": "health", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1667776129608}]
["science-default", "health"]
0.5
1669006718433
1669000712206
0.98
0.24646843005068655
2gS3LWx50OvVcYRwSQV6
{"NO": 269.7205788596161, "YES": 229.08511542354213}
0.1
is-the-paleo-diet-better-than-the-c
240.72487946530154
Is the paleo diet better than the CDC recommended diet?
1669006740000
atBYxynp8fZmwnsWIlwGVCaCc7G3
cpmm-1
0
1.7514087699324132
True
play
MKT
public
1667775427260
rev
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will spend about 5 hours reviewing articles related to the Paleo diet and resolve this market after my review with a probability reflecting my confidence in a YES answer to this question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "para...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669417530410
270
rev
1669006717767
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0bW0uUrwCDJgzKycl_0OE20nVSYni-CdyqE6Hh=s96-c
13
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…2e6-0180e4d3d631
16
[{"name": "Health", "slug": "health", "userId": "atBYxynp8fZmwnsWIlwGVCaCc7G3", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1667775427498}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1667776153856}]
["health", "science-default"]
0.5
1669006717681
1667852245436
0.1
0.21182920327703508
qlb4jsWHw0m4BOPMITVi
{"NO": 263.59713652715266, "YES": 405.7322829194854}
0.01
is-the-paleo-diet-better-than-the-m
333.49367886060577
Is the paleo diet better than the Mediterranean diet?
1669006740000
atBYxynp8fZmwnsWIlwGVCaCc7G3
cpmm-1
0
1.797845734053498
True
play
MKT
public
1667775472200
rev
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will spend about 5 hours reviewing articles related to the Paleo diet and resolve this market after my review with a probability reflecting my confidence in a YES answer to this question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "para...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669417448030
300
rev
1669006717076
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0bW0uUrwCDJgzKycl_0OE20nVSYni-CdyqE6Hh=s96-c
13
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…ca0-e2bae5a48093
15
[{"name": "Health", "slug": "health", "userId": "atBYxynp8fZmwnsWIlwGVCaCc7G3", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1667775472428}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1667776144482}]
["health", "science-default"]
0.5
1669006716989
1667852544913
0.01
0.33716629602125314
iVP9lf0L7iyqhFOIhaIe
{"NO": 98.35842288421416, "YES": 404.8074061041226}
0
will-falseknees-senpai-ever-notice
419.6281480030034
Will @FalseKnees senpai ever notice me?
1699419540000
LPtXK4iH1nf7Ey4H2kANxKJyqEJ2
cpmm-1
0.2575137687588766
2.4135127101876876
True
play
NO
public
1667775501168
jellyjamjan
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I made a piece of art for Halloween that has a similar aesthetic and structure to the popular @FalseKnees comic (a beautiful pithy comic, usually made using a range of traditional mediums, about the life of birds and other wildlife). You can experi...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1700533887843
170
jelly
1700491273182
2.2
https://firebasestorage.…c3d-84d7e22d4151
1
8
0
3
https://firebasestorage.…487-5caf7fb65d36
4
[{"name": "Senpai", "slug": "senpai", "userId": "LPtXK4iH1nf7Ey4H2kANxKJyqEJ2", "groupId": "mCEkEW6qztHY34nT0SAq", "createdTime": 1667775697514}, {"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "LPtXK4iH1nf7Ey4H2kANxKJyqEJ2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1667775678311}, {"name": "Art World", "slug...
["personal-goals", "arts", "art-world", "twitter", "senpai", "senpai-please-notice-me", "ancient-markets"]
0.11146828662301783
0.5
1699410799310
1700491272542
0.11
0.2612966403540591
TZbdPTL0gMnVGWrTsasD
{"NO": 247.48283005137904, "YES": 355.77459307141055}
0.1
what-percentage-of-people-that-star
238.02196436928966
What percentage of people that start a paleo diet will follow it for 2 years or more?
1669006740000
atBYxynp8fZmwnsWIlwGVCaCc7G3
cpmm-1
0
1.6341261885509657
True
play
MKT
public
1667775860400
rev
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will spend about 5 hours reviewing articles related to the Paleo diet and resolve this market after my review with my estimate of the percentage.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not b...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669417554936
280
rev
1669006715268
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0bW0uUrwCDJgzKycl_0OE20nVSYni-CdyqE6Hh=s96-c
12
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…0a9-4e97c6668074
15
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "atBYxynp8fZmwnsWIlwGVCaCc7G3", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1667775860707}, {"name": "Health", "slug": "health", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1667776100059}]
["science-default", "health"]
0.5
1669006715149
1667852650940
0.1
0.5109480208581322
Q86BQOAJKZ95FO8prYO2
{"NO": 263.8307286293119, "YES": 17657.98091491789}
0
will-destiny-have-1-million-subscri
40043.66004545754
Will Destiny have 1 million subscribers on Youtube by the end of 2023?
1704096000000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
0.6405368476482534
True
basic
NO
public
1667776755084
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704241423560
2505
IsaacKing
1704241424238
0.3
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
2
114
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…878-0c5a019d664a
75
[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1667776755311}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703118303145}, {"name": "Barcalona"...
["destinygg", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "barcalona"]
0.14431050316266258
0.5
1704090306406
1676669586502
0.02
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
0.6231648274021352
cSeteuF0Zzg7XnStq2vR
{"NO": 27407.52535180731, "YES": 530.0421222317009}
1
will-twitter-unban-destiny-by-the-e
66178.33847481456
Will Twitter unban Destiny by the end of 2023?
1672774671352
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
0.46448040838324856
True
basic
YES
public
1667776923202
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672774671352
2490
IsaacKing
1710451936179
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
2
180
0
https://firebasestorage.…6d4-d2775becb395
120
[{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}, {"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]
["destinygg", "twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]
0.5
1672773512275
1672705745519
0.99
0.4249254781740863
xxGQhcYJ5Zjp5d73MCLA
{"NO": 74.97241184935918, "YES": 111.40342967475635}
0
duplicating-a-market-doesnt-duplica
35
Duplicating a market doesn't duplicate all of its tags, just 1 of them
1701235746278
0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3
cpmm-1
0
3.108446749181774
True
play
NO
public
1667777045934
Manifold Bugs
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this bug be 1) recognized as valid by a member of the Manifold core team, and 2) fixed in a week? Filed from https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/1038956913599184947", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1701235757752
90
ManifoldBugs
1701235696888
0
https://firebasestorage.…385-21fb1410c1f6
2
0
4
https://firebasestorage.…428-6c2c24f10611
5
[{"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "userId": "0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1667777046181}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "j3DDsBlKwERpzRFeRIDRd5PSR6e2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1683475878403}]
["bugs", "please-resolve"]
0.5
1667777885272
1701235695246
0.33
0.17262346124716085
gRzqGYA3YV7uYejNaOxM
{"NO": 525.1984296492236, "YES": 3022.321526759546}
0
will-twitter-experience-substantial
3636.6339480966335
Will Twitter experience substantial unexpected downtime (>24hrs cumulatively) in 2022 and/or 2023?
1704085140000
WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2
cpmm-1
0
1.0490142744805508
True
play
NO
public
1667777322819
Zvi Mowshowitz
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are claims that Musk has fired too many people or will otherwise not be able to maintain the Twitter webssite. This market resolves to YES if Twitter is down (effectively not usable) for 24 cumulative hours between 11/6/2022 and 12/31/2023. O...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704118265444
730
ZviMowshowitz
1704118265830
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c
33
0
1
28
[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1667777323095}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703128949360}]
["culture-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.11142151108466421
0.5
1704069930205
1693265429437
0.03
WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2
0.6600000000000004
vL9LcACAsEH460ES5m8w
{"NO": 161.76917165696403, "YES": 37.61616989649179}
1
i-can-make-some-free-mana-by-submit
308.2308283430358
I can make some free mana by submitting bogus bug reports and betting NO on the associated market
1667824622546
0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3
cpmm-1
0
4.544038399667185
True
play
YES
public
1667777528882
Manifold Bugs
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this bug be 1) recognized as valid by a member of the Manifold core team, and 2) fixed in a week? Filed from https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/1038958681573818469", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667824622546
70
ManifoldBugs
1667824699793
0
https://firebasestorage.…385-21fb1410c1f6
1
0
https://firebasestorage.…aa0-dfff4535d76c
4
[{"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "userId": "0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1667777529221}]
["bugs"]
0.5
1667824287645
1667824699014
0.8930260745460592
0.4771875668367573
ZXRMeu51H6RL6BNAL27i
{"NO": 45.368872764664204, "YES": 372.6865424056019}
0.10000000000000003
if-im-not-within-the-top-20-on-a-le
340.49784428165276
If I'm not within the top 20 on a leaderboard, it only shows my position on the top traders board, not the top creators or top followed
1672531140000
0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3
cpmm-1
0
2.894878033383656
True
play
CANCEL
public
1667778112858
Manifold Bugs
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this bug be 1) recognized as valid by a member of the Manifold core team, and 2) fixed in a week? Filed from https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/1038961422224330833", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1680886937464
130
ManifoldBugs
1680886945823
0
https://firebasestorage.…385-21fb1410c1f6
5
0
20
https://firebasestorage.…eef-75f0d0c167fc
7
[{"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "userId": "0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1667778113047}]
["bugs"]
0.5
1671142299318
1680886942599
0.1
0.12321391618291819
prlB1khVPgx2hgZqoXeg
{"NO": 119.94172348605865, "YES": 597.9004614950352}
0.027417875052649254
the-market-creation-dialog-defaults
815.5080550047866
The market creation dialog defaults the close date to 1 minute too early
1667864400000
0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3
cpmm-1
0
5.097555349966896
True
play
CANCEL
public
1667778113696
Manifold Bugs
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this bug be 1) recognized as valid by a member of the Manifold core team, and 2) fixed in a week? Filed from https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/1038961008699506688", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669148930001
170
ManifoldBugs
1669149337729
0
https://firebasestorage.…385-21fb1410c1f6
7
0
3
https://firebasestorage.…23a-369f1e8e3538
10
[{"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "userId": "0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1667778113894}]
["bugs"]
0.5
1667860803192
1669149335243
0.027417875052649258
0.11572880379267027
gYeGgVmHlvfSPS2anngm
{"NO": 1612.6537627456512, "YES": 1389.5321331935947}
0.131861376143074
will-a-thirdparty-candidate-win-the
4716.190536471098
Will a third-party candidate win the US presidency by 2040?
2240611140000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
9.536278180923048
False
basic
public
1667778201916
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Including the 2040 election.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 5.281400048117852, "platformFee": 5.281400048117852, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1610
IsaacKing
1714826049763
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
2
88
0
https://firebasestorage.…2c0-779945442fb0
7
[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1667778202129}]
["us-politics"]
0.5
1714826046431
1681411076198
0.8742678218228366
cQX9J0cb1PekILbt8PUT
{"NO": 2223.2451559741135, "YES": 2063.6203188340614}
0.8822320257298009
anastasiya-stock-permanent
78775.884712189
Anastasiya Stock (Permanent)
33217163036424
JPuDK6vqApNtlerwo6Qis33ZjE83
cpmm-1
0
5.1416635565026585
False
basic
public
1667780640840
odecay
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market for Friend of the Stream (not orbiter) Anastasiya Paraskevova.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Yes = Buy", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "No = Short", "type": "text"}, {"type": "h...
STONK
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.028991055581355396}
0
{"creatorFee": 20.38786087907378, "platformFee": 8.254825955019076, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
2115
odecay
1718620125901
0.2
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjJQp3YEgGP_Ia7crDLnmrqkLeCQecbSTfueNIObw=s96-c
7
454
0
https://firebasestorage.…e94-b0014b2fa18c
284
[{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}, {"name": "all stonks", "slug": "all-stonks", "groupId": "82a3ffe0-4f06-4a64-a341-963e9767d08e"}, {"name": "Permanent Markets", "slug": "permanent-markets", "groupId": "2T4mM0N5az2lYcaN5G50"}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredicti...
["destinygg", "all-stonks", "permanent-markets", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"]
0.19498208042527818
0.5
False
False
1718620122773
1680650242328
False
0.5254303433596754
cM0n8zmtZbotVVkgPfnv
{"NO": 145.27587996530755, "YES": 35.30753110409753}
1
bug-markets-close-too-soon
116.11429558198779
Bug markets close too soon
1667828060622
0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3
cpmm-1
0
3.82768894777181
True
play
YES
public
1667783454560
Manifold Bugs
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this bug be 1) recognized as valid by a member of the Manifold core team, and 2) fixed in a week? Filed from https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/1038983730154450984", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667828060622
90
ManifoldBugs
1667828059586
0
https://firebasestorage.…385-21fb1410c1f6
3
0
https://firebasestorage.…46a-3c947ab737b5
7
[{"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "userId": "0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1667783454772}]
["bugs"]
0.5
1667828059411
1667789850542
0.590163934426229
0.6614953689011289
qWLzhaLlMF81PHusMJIt
{"NO": 505.3501533615675, "YES": 68.10077365269692}
0.95
poll-did-cosmo-repay-me-m1010
435.2285882601279
Poll: Did Cosmo repay me M$1010?
1668401940000
Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2
cpmm-1
0
2.94226426275642
True
play
MKT
public
1667784401272
Jenny
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This poll is about ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "2Z8J6Y2S1J52xgM9kMME", "label": "/Yev/i-want-to-invest-m1000-for-1-week-h"}}, {"text": ". Cosmo has agreed to send me M$1010. He has sent me a manalink for M$1, wh...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668483784607
150
Jenny
1668401915976
0
https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0
0
8
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…760-e4adcc168b25
10
[{"name": "Loans", "slug": "loans", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "tGI8aX6j8Nen9qgpgkJV", "createdTime": 1667784403443}, {"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1667784401591}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "man...
["polls", "loans", "manifold-6748e065087e"]
0.5
1668401915820
1668045450530
0.95
0.3595364915472097
P6C37fAAURn1RRaXzgdE
{"NO": 48.19978257163157, "YES": 3038.691918152105}
0
will-xnoai-still-exist-in-november
3362.6309920649323
Will xno.ai still exist in November 2023?
1699343940000
PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2
cpmm-1
0
3.1745965501346403
True
play
NO
public
1667787956851
horse
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "xno.ai", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://xno.ai", "class": "z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is a Stable Diffusion-as-a-serv...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1699385421576
250
horse
1699286320992
0
https://firebasestorage.…dbf-8a696946045f
10
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…df2-14202e515f8f
4
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1667787957165}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 16807370866...
["technology-default", "ancient-markets"]
0.5
1699286320669
1667788041762
0.01
0.6608003134288631
QWF3KKdPbib9sKxRXQoE
{"NO": 3200.966227335949, "YES": 1510.7123668926195}
0.8049829523134396
jidion-stock-permanent
17182.58886537433
JiDion Stock (Permanent)
33217163036416
GgEwiiBGdmUrMJhqIOnH2rGCSSt1
cpmm-1
0.06399345882193927
5.141663556502659
False
basic
public
1667788446559
Cooley
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Permanent Market for JiDion.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Yes = Buy", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "No = Short", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This is a permanent...
STONK
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1980
Cooley
1713584700158
1.2
https://firebasestorage.…4a2-d79494769b45
1
134
0
https://firebasestorage.…c86-6b5c7fb5ed17
55
[{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}, {"name": "all stonks", "slug": "all-stonks", "groupId": "82a3ffe0-4f06-4a64-a341-963e9767d08e"}, {"name": "Permanent Markets", "slug": "permanent-markets", "groupId": "2T4mM0N5az2lYcaN5G50"}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredicti...
["destinygg", "all-stonks", "permanent-markets", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"]
0.1864394687675857
0.5
False
False
1712024505078
1667788532138
False
0.36360870578445076
UzRFjaSl19b8f0OHoaMA
{"NO": 58.84113285723189, "YES": 163.99999999999983}
0
clicking-to-switch-to-a-different-t
74
Clicking to switch to a different tab on a user's profile page is very slow, often a ~1s delay to load the new tab
1704139414324
0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3
cpmm-1
0
3.4792294530516976
True
play
NO
public
1667788577712
Manifold Bugs
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this bug be 1) recognized as valid by a member of the Manifold core team, and 2) fixed in a week? Filed from https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/1039005236746006538", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704139418679
90
ManifoldBugs
1704139418971
0
https://firebasestorage.…385-21fb1410c1f6
2
0
4
https://firebasestorage.…de1-f047f24f0990
4
[{"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "userId": "0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1667788577983}]
["bugs"]
0.5
1667861970096
1704060234660
0.17
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
0.47393364928909565
cMPL20wY1uqxsRuUjScu
{"NO": 61.66666666666674, "YES": 79.99999999999984}
0.4098360655737675
a-users-entire-portfolio-page-freez
10
A user's entire portfolio page freezes while the graphs are loading
1667865540000
0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3
cpmm-1
0
3.5751013475362114
True
play
CANCEL
public
1667788578066
Manifold Bugs
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this bug be 1) recognized as valid by a member of the Manifold core team, and 2) fixed in a week? Filed from https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/1039004980524359752", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1691494811526
70
ManifoldBugs
1667821845738
0
https://firebasestorage.…385-21fb1410c1f6
1
0
4
https://firebasestorage.…ede-43eec7658e7f
3
[{"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "userId": "0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1667788578308}]
["bugs"]
0.5
1667821844350
1667788660571
0.41
0.8033753860535744
maCDQ6a0beiuRx6kiAuG
{"NO": 1353.995097323289, "YES": 2173.7407842787075}
0.7179135741131573
imreallyimportant-stock-permanent
6868.851408332513
imreallyimportant Stock (Permanent)
33217163036429
GgEwiiBGdmUrMJhqIOnH2rGCSSt1
cpmm-1
0
5.14166355650266
False
basic
public
1667788704058
Cooley
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Permanent market for political friend of the stream imreallyimportant.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = Buy", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "No = Short", "type": "text"...
STONK
{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
2000
Cooley
1713584702324
0
https://firebasestorage.…4a2-d79494769b45
131
0
https://firebasestorage.…551-de1d045b1a8e
91
[{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}, {"name": "all stonks", "slug": "all-stonks", "groupId": "82a3ffe0-4f06-4a64-a341-963e9767d08e"}, {"name": "Permanent Markets", "slug": "permanent-markets", "groupId": "2T4mM0N5az2lYcaN5G50"}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredicti...
["destinygg", "all-stonks", "permanent-markets", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"]
0.5
False
False
1709241197196
1668270645657
False
0.6912241463702478
Z0Pkd5c3sJ3fkB8y9xef
{"NO": 379.4428404248381, "YES": 158.46021960264983}
0.8
poll-is-it-socially-acceptable-for
220.93180278588
Poll: Is it socially acceptable for the market creator to bet on their private poll market?
1668401940000
Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2
cpmm-1
0
1.9228596626274475
True
play
MKT
public
1667790347392
Jenny
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I create a private strawpoll, I can see the results at any time, but other traders can only see them after it's closed. Is it socially acceptable for me to trade in this case?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668408272692
220
Jenny
1668408322560
0
https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0
7
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…10e-b25fdd328cd1
11
[{"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1667790347701}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1667790389088}]
["polls", "manifold-6748e065087e"]
0.5
1668401914842
1668408308460
0.8
0.8275081143736388
qt8ZUIJ6SKHvPkC2FmW4
{"NO": 1906.968219902757, "YES": 1075.2093278783163}
0
will-at-least-one-congressional-can
1948.9235915669567
Will at least one Congressional candidate contest election results in 2022?
1668038340000
SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2
cpmm-1
0
0.5773302371998623
True
basic
NO
public
1667791545509
Scott Alexander
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves positive if a major-party candidate for US Congress in the 2022 midterm elections contests the results of the election they were in, including:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"ty...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670559829636
1210
ScottAlexander
1668790964280
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwBTuc9HH2ol7466asmjnFco0Z6LioKnIYqdNEn=s96-c
0
46
0
4
https://firebasestorage.…5ab-2a9428d2db1a
46
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1667791628934}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 16677916228...
["us-politics", "us-2022-elections", "politics-default"]
0.5
1668034742663
1668790963741
0.89
0.5233931246817486
1ck2Nb2TGzq74CwZkzwr
{"NO": 149.63349255675317, "YES": 146.7390124467434}
0.528263389465537
will-an-undisclosed-person-vote-yes
90.60862465903608
Will an undisclosed person vote "yes" on this market?
1667865540000
x4Md3ynwwyWjoGOYlkJvcO9vqQT2
cpmm-1
0
2.01671891213039
True
play
CANCEL
public
1667794366863
pancakes ♠︎
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I picked a random person from the \"top creators\" tab in the Proofniks group (since that seemed like it was full of people who are active in this group) via a random number generator (1-16), who is the undisclosed person. I have not notified them,...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667869845185
150
cece
1667836811105
0
https://firebasestorage.…130-ba6f3589b750
7
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…2f4-44ac819bad24
9
[{"name": "Proofniks", "slug": "proofniks", "userId": "x4Md3ynwwyWjoGOYlkJvcO9vqQT2", "groupId": "HWg8Z5SraHRjoEjHCcIJ", "createdTime": 1667794367088}]
["proofniks"]
0.5
1667836810985
1667796260853
0.5282633894655365
0.4869483986914574
aczW3BusUje485PB2LBa
{"NO": 181.40749655352533, "YES": 19.130865358066053}
1
the-top-creators-leaderboard-on-the
221.69446621411845
The "top creators" leaderboard on the main leaderboard page goes by volume, but on group pages it goes by number of unique traders
1667831297164
0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3
cpmm-1
0
4.466438651044449
True
play
YES
public
1667794890613
Manifold Bugs
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this bug be 1) recognized as valid by a member of the Manifold core team, and 2) fixed in a week? Filed from https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/1039031729110925413", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667831297164
90
ManifoldBugs
1667831296471
0
https://firebasestorage.…385-21fb1410c1f6
3
0
https://firebasestorage.…bdc-9e0362e40810
5
[{"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "userId": "0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1667794890872}]
["bugs"]
0.5
1667831296360
1667795001186
0.4098360655737702
0.5897066983540129
prj4syXsTiQ51EVaUyEG
{"NO": 191.83099412724343, "YES": 95.60153133175598}
1
will-i-get-to-bed-by-1155pm-at-leas-665fcc24d572
93.09565835518207
Will I get to bed by 11:55pm at least 3 times this week?
1668103481588
7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1
cpmm-1
0
2.4562993048141504
True
play
YES
public
1667795113754
Charlie
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a commitment market created via www.Emile.chat.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668103481588
130
Charlie
1668011824360
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c
5
0
https://firebasestorage.…6ad-36867aef61b2
7
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1667795114046}]
["personal-goals"]
0.5
1668011824254
1667795218974
0.7425336056299714
0.44333677547153283
UtiB14ic0p4DZooDexPM
{"NO": 898.6223813184802, "YES": 1095.1284351829902}
0.3952265545946974
will-polygamous-marriage-be-legal-i
3251.03350459138
Will polygamous marriage be legal in any US state by 2035?
2082758340000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0.2121424321871632
8.495118652536366
False
basic
public
1667795995396
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "They must be able to get married in that state, not just have their marriage recognized from elsewhere.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.4016432241485615, "platformFee": 2.4016432241485615, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
IsaacKing
1715703634842
1.7
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
1
48
0
https://firebasestorage.…672-21daaebac6fd
12
[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1667795995645}]
["us-politics"]
0.1380654312288006
0.5
1715703631418
1696969786222
0.35075109565471174
ENMIkud2nEjmLEBnI3ab
{"NO": 991.7843873230132, "YES": 1007.0222408463518}
0.3472868704495316
will-there-be-a-trivorce-in-the-uni
253.8136705100666
Will there be a trivorce in the United States by 2040?
2240611140000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
9.601253881876389
False
basic
public
1667796079587
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/tri", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/tri", "class": "z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "...
BINARY
{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-16, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-16, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
IsaacKing
1704698816674
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
13
0
https://firebasestorage.…52a-a446bf12f142
8
[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1667796079859}]
["us-politics"]
0.5
1704698816550
1676120470920
jYtQk19yZEgZyvFO4DPR
which-prediction-platform-will-be-m
361.83388548298325
Which prediction platform will be most accurate in forecasting the 2022 midterms?
1667941200000
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.720778288564761
True
basic
2d7e2958d3c9
public
1667796467742
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will score several prediction platforms on a set of 10 questions on the outcome of the 2022 US midterm elections. For each prediction platform, I will take the predicted probabilities on Monday evening, and compute the average ", "type": "text"},...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672606198278
1020.0000000000001
jack
1709407746452
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
1
19
0
DISABLED
[{"id": "0e4893137c65", "prob": 0.12321613840175084, "text": "Manifold", "index": 0, "poolNo": 14.165166697136689, "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 100.79677644500781, "textFts": "'manifold':1", "contractId": "jYtQk19yZEgZyvFO4DPR", "createdTime": 1667796467742, "probChanges": {"da...
4
https://firebasestorage.…988-96be412d7a5b
22
0.004497691854876568
[{"name": "Election forecast comparison", "slug": "election-forecast-comparison", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "r3rY9nNBd19OEPzrowdd", "createdTime": 1667868858008}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": ...
["us-politics", "predictions-on-predictions", "election-forecast-comparison"]
0.08995383709753135
1667920854229
1709407746017
{"2d7e2958d3c9": 100}
True
0.7666239826983844
8Ou4JuWTA59OPXCVmBFt
{"NO": 230.5642211615296, "YES": 166.2557768720775}
0
will-at-least-two-congressional-can
336.0285016698732
Will at least two Congressional candidates contest election results in 2022?
1668038340000
k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2
cpmm-1
0
2.4878477668151255
True
play
NO
public
1667796954690
Olivia🏳️‍⚧️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note: this is a duplicate of ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2", "label": "ScottAlexander"}}, {"text": "'s aiming to find the expected value. It will resolve identically, except with the number ma...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670620490500
190
LivInTheLookingGlass
1670620485458
0
https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97
10
0
4
https://firebasestorage.…9fc-782a4bee7021
11
[{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1667797113389}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1667797103777}, {"name"...
["politics-default", "us-politics", "us-2022-elections", "olivia"]
0.5
1668034743787
1670620482406
0.82
0.6334539143897027
QpID6NCZy9vFcJxI0WmW
{"NO": 151.61524696061576, "YES": 144.23906074842336}
0
will-at-least-four-congressional-ca
191.4256037750758
Will at least four Congressional candidates contest election results in 2022?
1668038340000
k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2
cpmm-1
0
2.236531635991561
True
play
NO
public
1667796982864
Olivia🏳️‍⚧️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note: this is a duplicate of ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2", "label": "ScottAlexander"}}, {"text": "'s aiming to find the expected value. It will resolve identically, except with the number ma...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670620509137
150
LivInTheLookingGlass
1667999151204
0
https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97
8
0
4
https://firebasestorage.…352-f67377545db6
9
[{"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1667797131677}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1667797126866...
["politics-default", "olivia", "us-politics", "us-2022-elections"]
0.5
1667999151044
1667797575349
0.64
0.44975344589633204
jjqZSlaUODaQaIm7uDHY
{"NO": 180.50944697373075, "YES": 351.254523630345}
0
will-at-least-eight-congressional-c
267.716662070608
Will at least eight Congressional candidates contest election results in 2022?
1668038340000
k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2
cpmm-1
0
1.4354341556343504
True
play
NO
public
1667797007201
Olivia🏳️‍⚧️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note: this is a duplicate of ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2", "label": "ScottAlexander"}}, {"text": "'s aiming to find the expected value. It will resolve identically, except with the number ma...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670620499567
250
LivInTheLookingGlass
1670271033721
0
https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97
13
0
4
https://firebasestorage.…bce-a425fd08a560
14
[{"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1667797597827}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1667797591331...
["politics-default", "olivia", "us-politics", "us-2022-elections"]
0.5
1668033183783
1670271030871
0.3
0.5917553998439465
pSm7Jk6RpSim1qf5iV69
{"NO": 366.6196472943716, "YES": 246.6348929098965}
0.683010746090859
how-many-people-will-be-at-predicti
76.61964729437175
How many people will be at Prediction Market (Mis)Uses on Nov 14?
1668484800000
Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2
cpmm-1
0
0.6035439012575023
True
play
MKT
public
1667797036921
Jenny
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the highest number of simultaneous people at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.meetup.com/boston-astral-codex-meetup/events/289594180/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.meetup.com/boston...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668490780875
290
Jenny
1668476040574
0
https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0
2
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…6e8-962d41451116
4
[{"name": "ACX", "slug": "acx", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29", "createdTime": 1667797037117}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 16677970513...
["acx", "predictions-on-predictions"]
0.5885190554114832
1668476040336
1667797117867
0.683010746090859
0.6613635014632954
rx87rdRKh1mth8BcyybE
{"NO": 100.79232309034515, "YES": 134.93592161296192}
0.5933034216619025
clicking-a-card-in-the-embed-editor
110
Clicking a card in the embed editor opens the market instead of embedding it
1672531140000
0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3
cpmm-1
0
2.679589898224088
True
play
CANCEL
public
1667797398921
Manifold Bugs
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this bug be 1) recognized as valid by a member of the Manifold core team, and 2) fixed in a week? Filed from https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/1039041851346386974", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704036112080
130
ManifoldBugs
1704036112328
0
https://firebasestorage.…385-21fb1410c1f6
4
0
73
https://firebasestorage.…b22-efc5b345b03e
7
[{"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "userId": "0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1667797399212}]
["bugs"]
0.5
1668201838623
1668545715693
0.59
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
0.43396895734402197
8naohFKS8mCbHRC2GnrK
{"NO": 108.4269487778646, "YES": 109.8189029118943}
0
will-i-do-at-least-1-pomodoro-of-ho
43
Will I do at least 1 pomodoro of housework each day I am home thru 11/13?
1668410193945
k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2
cpmm-1
0
2.3260759800938633
True
play
NO
public
1667805393945
Olivia🏳️‍⚧️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669340267130
110
LivInTheLookingGlass
1710462488774
0
https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97
4
0
3
https://firebasestorage.…6d9-88848c2f642c
5
[{"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4"}, {"name": "Commitment Devices", "slug": "commitment-devices", "groupId": "ISVja50LAxuGN0QqycWz"}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz"}, {"name": "Short fuse", "slug": "short-fuse", "groupId": "a2ab3b95-588a-4e45-a85...
["fun", "commitment-devices", "olivia", "short-fuse"]
0.5
1668410168374
1667805508302
0.4308382520074655
OBGKt0f9JN9NQUZjJLxc
what-destiny-bridge-will-be-burned
1601.8605618810006
What Destiny bridge will be burned next?
1668140741210
VhzAVw1rbZb3qKRDhva7ad9gZT53
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.662494031779925
True
play
MKT
public
1667805744090
thesourceofsound
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668140741210
1079.9999999999995
thesourceofsound
1668140821143
0
https://firebasestorage.…c58-26279aa89ce0
20
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "81b42ad81040", "prob": 0.009423407496857375, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.05611414050134743, "userId": "VhzAVw1rbZb3qKRDhva7ad9gZT53", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 5.898646971130621, "textFts": "", "contractId": "OBGKt0f9JN9NQUZjJLxc", "createdTime": 1667805744571, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...
https://firebasestorage.…818-5d1eb5462ef8
21
[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "VhzAVw1rbZb3qKRDhva7ad9gZT53", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1667805744402}]
["destinygg"]
1668139253733
1668140819081
{"463651bbc67d": 76.43753961975591, "ca208e82a169": 23.5624603802441}
True
0.3893898722246892
m1SEJTdDa7gvxSvguEtw
{"NO": 70.50084099799085, "YES": 1754.4683954456527}
0
will-you-be-able-to-follow-a-manifo
2212.664474534203
Will you be able to follow a Manifold user from Mastodon by 2023Q3?
1688169540000
k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2
cpmm-1
0.05226265035566737
2.3587286091866213
True
play
NO
public
1667809592845
Olivia🏳️‍⚧️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I think this is my next project, once I get the market manager tidied up to a point where I consider it stable", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are 4 routes I could plausibly go with this...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1688711094186
330
LivInTheLookingGlass
1688165867468
1.3
https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97
1
16
0
2
https://firebasestorage.…a0b-8d33645a708f
10
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1667809648369}, {"name": "Fediverse", "slug": "fediverse", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "eDgkmJd7TbqSU9kPcGJ7", "createdTime": 1667809644001}, {"name...
["technology-default", "olivia", "fediverse", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "ancient-markets"]
0.14357775547359794
0.5
1688165867313
1667809756155
0.02
RPhhc2jOulv7T8nXwE6k
which-country-will-be-the-next-one
538.8866433222826
Which country will be the next one to legalise the sale of cannabis?
1735649940000
XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1667815131854
Keepcalmandchill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
Keepcalmandchill
1713015888085
0.1
https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de
13
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "3be3ef6f1ce3", "prob": 0.06604618288075828, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 13.196163465829601, "userId": "XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 186.6058976109527, "textFts": "", "contractId": "RPhhc2jOulv7T8nXwE6k", "createdTime": 1667815132257, "probChanges": {"day": -0.9339538171...
1
https://firebasestorage.…9bc-cbbfea0ec295
10
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1667815132124}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703132701136}]
["politics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.09753645437266624
1713015884908
1667829818449
True
True
0.7076613058436312
RWjgglPWMxky1OWWFhG6
{"NO": 345.998100574171, "YES": 54.94151844721682}
1
will-i-get-my-apple-watch-move-and-9e0377725050
277.9098378885375
Will I get my Apple Watch Move and Exercise rings at least 6/7 days this week?
1668402000000
7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1
cpmm-1
0
3.9052586114390095
True
play
YES
public
1667815224892
Charlie
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a weekly auto-generated market. Manually added details potentially forthcoming.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668441986046
110
Charlie
1668401973305
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c
6
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…4cd-11a976829053
6
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1667815225174}]
["personal-goals"]
0.5
1668401973133
1668014872305
0.9384405724827873
0.36811202662630627
ZjVi7fvnhEzsnjVBv0Dp
{"NO": 581.7223445068853, "YES": 29779.376292771092}
0
will-destiny-be-on-the-joe-rogan-ex
283802.3363977576
Will Destiny be on the Joe Rogan Experience Podcast by the end of 2023?
1704047340000
fvwtjHW00tMrzXlZA2OEfh8gk5m1
cpmm-1
0.0069083871182421186
0.43623178228893433
True
basic
NO
public
1667817747155
hardy
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Destiny's growth on YouTube, recent appearnces on multiple differnet podcasts and specifically his upcoming appearnce on the Lex Fridman Podcast has made this an actual possibility.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704140252791
2510
hardy
1704140255125
3.9
https://firebasestorage.…8c4-b37c3d30c7d1
6
328
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…450-2b3c9bb0ae9d
115
[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "fvwtjHW00tMrzXlZA2OEfh8gk5m1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1667817747429}, {"name": "Podcasts", "slug": "podcasts", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "8cvSruaMBLaZqnfLaLA0", "createdTime": 1675313048473}, {"name": "🎆 New Y...
["destinygg", "podcasts", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.2802624817631169
0.5
1704004884472
1698519627729
0.01
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
0.8825675968807482
7xKAYWAmYP3MifVEQLUQ
{"NO": 1690.3046393821655, "YES": 104.78639590990522}
1
will-meta-announce-layoffs-in-2022
1850.5045853682757
Will Meta announce layoffs in 2022?
1668608930271
tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3
cpmm-1
0
5.77090524371069
True
play
YES
public
1667819213434
FRC
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if Meta announces layoffs in 2022, NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668608930271
170
FRCassarino
1667993091853
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjb-7zU9ioj6KVjeqE5PItJsQaNuzMZm25pjZP9lA=s96-c
8
0
https://firebasestorage.…0cd-5cc4a06bee2d
7
0.5
1667993091660
1667992572655
0.9918188893822424
0.2561867236776134
3xj36AnNRbHzpUQBBTPb
{"NO": 132.694321284031, "YES": 819.1588108292945}
0
wil-meta-fire-15-of-employees-in-20
1791.8976117912648
Will Meta layoff >= 15% of employees in 2022?
1672531140000
tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3
cpmm-1
0
2.3473056170017728
True
play
NO
public
1667819339031
FRC
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria: trustworthy news sources claiming >=15% of employees fired, which should be ~12500 (unless the number of employees on Google turns out to be wrong). Starting date is today (no previous firings are counted)", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1679450621862
230
FRCassarino
1679450640905
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjb-7zU9ioj6KVjeqE5PItJsQaNuzMZm25pjZP9lA=s96-c
11
0
17
https://firebasestorage.…f05-df1284b2e194
10
[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676093071677}]
["please-resolve"]
0.5
1672528152086
1679450637617
0.05
0.8714526161564361
uE4cB9SIEfITQXqgIrcH
{"NO": 2290.4679392584812, "YES": 121.82143762885208}
1
will-meta-layoff-5-of-employees-in
2156.5322621916353
Will Meta layoff >= 5% of employees in 2022?
1668608939048
tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3
cpmm-1
0
4.711258015358628
True
play
YES
public
1667819533023
FRC
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria: trustworthy news sources claiming >=5% of employees fired, which should be ~4200 (unless the number of employees on Google turns out to be wrong). Starting date is today (no previous firings are counted).", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668608939048
210
FRCassarino
1668408722803
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjb-7zU9ioj6KVjeqE5PItJsQaNuzMZm25pjZP9lA=s96-c
9
0
https://firebasestorage.…36f-567a4c5ba7fb
8
0.5
1668408722685
1667992580262
0.9922156022307829
0.12144913727177453
rXHK84tHgG4sbcgaOVYa
{"NO": 99.9552364250038, "YES": 632.0492888048863}
0
will-meta-layoff-25-of-employees-in
984.734736940148
Will Meta layoff >= 25% of employees in 2022?
1672531140000
tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3
cpmm-1
0
5.876332721774763
True
play
NO
public
1667819643206
FRC
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria: trustworthy news sources claiming >=25% of employees fired, which should be ~21000 (unless the number of employees on Google turns out to be wrong). Starting date is today (no previous firings are counted).", "type": "text"}]}]...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1679450579820
150
FRCassarino
1679450608510
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjb-7zU9ioj6KVjeqE5PItJsQaNuzMZm25pjZP9lA=s96-c
7
0
17
https://firebasestorage.…067-bdabd007124b
7
[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676093072269}]
["please-resolve"]
0.5
1668147417909
1679450606568
0.02
0.47393364928909837
zwk3EqjYGOPetP6Onw6y
{"NO": 61.66666666666668, "YES": 80}
1
a-market-that-i-just-resolved-na-sh
10
A market that I just resolved N/A shows up in the "your daily movers" section of the homepage
1667865540000
0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3
cpmm-1
0
3.575101347536206
True
play
YES
public
1667821785330
Manifold Bugs
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this bug be 1) recognized as valid by a member of the Manifold core team, and 2) fixed in a week? Filed from https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/1039144233317183488", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667969699495
70
ManifoldBugs
1667822078321
0
https://firebasestorage.…385-21fb1410c1f6
1
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…ff8-d29f9c8101a1
3
[{"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "userId": "0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1667821785585}]
["bugs"]
0.5
1667822078149
1667821915673
0.40983606557376945
0.29947375981503854
ZSF5Y4pcgKDwwyN66jWN
{"NO": 55.98140368427642, "YES": 193.02380714238063}
0.11030798847710499
when-resolving-a-market-na-my-balan
103.02380714238083
When resolving a market N/A, my balance changes twice; once for the market funds, and then again for the unique trader bonuses being removed. The first change is not reflected on my portfolio graph
1667865540000
0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3
cpmm-1
0
4.017621624459844
True
play
CANCEL
public
1667821786527
Manifold Bugs
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this bug be 1) recognized as valid by a member of the Manifold core team, and 2) fixed in a week? Filed from https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/1039144510954946571", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669149191697
90
ManifoldBugs
1669149176883
0
https://firebasestorage.…385-21fb1410c1f6
2
0
3
https://firebasestorage.…27d-ffc3e1f267b8
5
[{"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "userId": "0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1667821786814}]
["bugs"]
0.5
1667861969248
1669149174752
0.110307988477105
0.5000000000000001
Zh34i6W4gxB3jzwTTeYD
{"NO": 150, "YES": 16.666666666666686}
1
test-8db2486d804c
100
test
1667822585258
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
4.913471545642608
True
play
YES
public
1667822555478
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667822585258
50
IsaacKing
1667822618593
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
1
0
https://firebasestorage.…6d4-d07fbcefc98b
2
0.5
1667822565372
1667822616638
0.8999999999999999
0.4488173918507904
fTNKgvIwiwmxrByFOSiN
{"NO": 12.398603353203978, "YES": 252.39860335320398}
0.03846153846153847
this-market-is-a-test-for-another-b
200
This market is a test for another bug; it is not itself a bug report. (Sorry, people viewing this on the bug tracker.)
1667824218411
0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3
cpmm-1
0
5.517247416482461
True
play
CANCEL
public
1667822815659
Manifold Bugs
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this bug be 1) recognized as valid by a member of the Manifold core team, and 2) fixed in a week? Filed from https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/1039148762502803526", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667824218411
70
ManifoldBugs
1667844814400
0
https://firebasestorage.…385-21fb1410c1f6
1
0
https://firebasestorage.…a52-26c0dd86166a
4
[{"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "userId": "0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1667822815920}]
["bugs"]
0.5
1667822933593
1667844811915
0.038461538461538464
0.2028213913473929
bbWvwjruUP2y71G9uYNb
{"NO": 93.65066331166062, "YES": 259.9999999999997}
0.08394895696599815
liqudity-subsidies-are-still-exploi
200
Liqudity subsidies are still exploitable on low-volume markets. Buy shares, wait for the unique trader subsidy to be added, then sell your shares for more than you paid.
1672531140000
0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3
cpmm-1
0
3.9901096799251716
True
play
CANCEL
public
1667823284913
Manifold Bugs
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this bug be 1) recognized as valid by a member of the Manifold core team, and 2) fixed in a week? Filed from https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/1039150842596560936", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1680886907939
130
ManifoldBugs
1680888212954
0
https://firebasestorage.…385-21fb1410c1f6
4
0
20
https://firebasestorage.…eb7-e246c8315622
5
[{"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "userId": "0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1667823285185}]
["bugs"]
0.5
1668201849575
1680888209069
0.08
0.5
uHSK9384s5N0GI56ciuA
{"NO": 50, "YES": 50}
0.5
test-bugs-should-file-in-linear-c9e7c888d569
0
[test] Bugs should file in Linear
1667824140000
0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3
cpmm-1
0
4.3944491546724365
True
play
CANCEL
public
1667824123614
Manifold Bugs
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if this bug is 1) recognized as valid by a member of the Manifold core team, and 2) fixed in a week. Resolves N/A if otherwise. Filed from https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/918922777384341544/1031694819849932800", "type":...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667824151291
50
ManifoldBugs
1667824258388
0
https://firebasestorage.…385-21fb1410c1f6
0
0
https://firebasestorage.…35c-bc1ac9fe7eae
2
[{"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "userId": "0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1667824123973}]
["bugs"]
0.5
1667824256468
0.5
0.4206995262527118
66MGXUmXvWIw2aLJpNlj
{"NO": 40.13081066690488, "YES": 262.29413613016}
0.1
the-descripion-field-on-the-market
172.29413613016004
The descripion field on the market creation page is collapsed and I can't type in it. Screenshot in market comments.
1672531140000
0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3
cpmm-1
0
3.5247147564341215
True
play
CANCEL
public
1667825005174
Manifold Bugs
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if this bug is 1) recognized as valid by a member of the Manifold core team, and 2) fixed in a week. Resolves No if this is a bug and we don't fix it, and N/A if this isn't recognized as a valid bug. Filed from https://discord.com/chan...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1680886920533
90
ManifoldBugs
1680888258603
0
https://firebasestorage.…385-21fb1410c1f6
2
0
20
https://firebasestorage.…db0-bf78a49d2e39
4
[{"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "userId": "0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1667825005429}]
["bugs"]
0.5
1671141946163
1680888255420
0.1
0.7631665495676369
8M0cEYu9xYTJCozNZGe2
{"NO": 12117.60582251601, "YES": 412.2341562254436}
1
will-ftx-suspend-withdrawals-for-mo
24422.025135157764
Will FTX suspend withdrawals for more than a 7 day period in 2022?
1669831380152
tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3
cpmm-1
0
0.9278284083653889
True
basic
YES
public
1667827822657
FRC
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if FTX suspends user withdrawals for more than 7 days during 2022. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1589607443344265216"}}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669831380152
1250
FRCassarino
1669831381997
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjb-7zU9ioj6KVjeqE5PItJsQaNuzMZm25pjZP9lA=s96-c
64
0
https://firebasestorage.…7db-419b975ceea9
54
[{"name": "FTX Liquidity Crisis (Nov 2022)", "slug": "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "userId": "U0HGS0lz7CTVT7UWDBE5T3VSl7u1", "groupId": "DwXE6sNMFQ8hnEq1afHh", "createdTime": 1668025593198}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZ...
["ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "please-resolve"]
0.5
1669771768438
1669831376519
0.9895530396867883
0.5
OcSdEUTCthAQ7ywEs6rd
{"NO": 50, "YES": 50}
0.5
the-bug-test-bugs-should-file-in-li
0
The bug: [test] Bugs should file in Linear is fixed within a week
1667828024296
0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3
cpmm-1
0
4.3944491546724365
True
play
CANCEL
public
1667827961170
Manifold Bugs
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if this bug is 1) recognized as valid by a member of the Manifold core team, and 2) fixed in a week. Resolves No if this is a bug and we don't fix it, and N/A if this isn't recognized as a valid bug. Filed from https://discord.com/chan...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667828024296
50
ManifoldBugs
1667828097952
0
https://firebasestorage.…385-21fb1410c1f6
0
0
https://firebasestorage.…9a1-165f4e497019
2
[{"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "userId": "0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1667827961455}]
["bugs"]
0.5
1667828095830
0.5
0.5826419722442747
ckW33mqy3uKq7Hx28i7w
{"NO": 1956.3513288823335, "YES": 613.6798484535875}
0.816526860280453
will-manifold-ever-stop-misresolvin
1706.971873356491
Will Manifold ever stop misresolving their own markets?
1767225540000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
9.888855641317436
False
basic
public
1667828212758
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Manifold\" refers to any accounts associated with Manifold Markets, such as @ManifoldMarkets and @ManifoldBugs, along with any Manifold employee accounts who publically present themselves as representatives of Manifold in some capacity. (Such as ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.07389559316914218}
0
{"creatorFee": 20.77622784550491, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
IsaacKing
1718610108368
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
1
18
0
https://firebasestorage.…68e-00493720f97d
8
[{"name": "Meta-markets on improper resolution", "slug": "metamarkets-on-improper-resolution", "userId": "CrQD7VbNqgbU6cjenSs1H5fdgEa2", "groupId": "jwv3Gi8dUGyA7coNlK2g", "createdTime": 1669043781640}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "lnLC8qEiz0aJXDRRkYRXEPaxKpM2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf...
["metamarkets-on-improper-resolution", "manifold-6748e065087e"]
0.5
1718610105320
1718529056020
0.24690477440846564
EljyCZLkiUgrPZ6nRBKc
{"NO": 154.56835237651745, "YES": 289.7566489248295}
0
will-democrats-find-any-cases-of-el
158.09565835518208
Will Democrats find any cases of election fraud in their Midterm elections?
1669870740000
wBZSAA3MrnWjz7eHrKAq43OXBtA2
cpmm-1
0
2.4016547898336613
True
play
NO
public
1667829410975
Trent Yazzo
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Now that we've been conditioned to think that there is absolutely no or very limited voter fraud (which is always caught and prosecuted), will Democrats find actual cases of massive voter fraud in their own elections? Resolves yes if at least one c...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670332286646
190
kazoo
1668040476424
0
https://firebasestorage.…b09-3312ffa70d6f
8
0
2
https://firebasestorage.…917-3e9217bee218
11
[{"name": "US Midterm Elections", "slug": "us-midterm-elections", "userId": "wBZSAA3MrnWjz7eHrKAq43OXBtA2", "groupId": "phdax3hPOitlyRc4oWM4", "createdTime": 1667829512166}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "wBZSAA3MrnWjz7eHrKAq43OXBtA2", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTi...
["us-2022-midterms", "us-politics", "us-2022-elections", "us-midterm-elections", "politics-default"]
0.5
1668040476233
1667829450119
0.14885700890757975
0.25715176442920323
KJnuSifh7ctWRsnTWAtJ
{"NO": 2090.92401105472, "YES": 15589.607486523886}
0.04436929977327481
will-the-federal-reserve-engineer-a
31204.326972960615
Will the Federal Reserve engineer a soft landing?
1721098740000
H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1
cpmm-1
0.004979734840356662
7.403567730954949
False
basic
public
1667829713454
MP
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will settle to YES if the June 2024 readings of Core PCE Inflation and Unemployment (defined by the BLS) read as the following:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content...
BINARY
{"day": 6.938893903907228e-18, "week": 0.00021098132193946711, "month": -0.0005234220826636424}
0
{"creatorFee": 88.13256530219626, "platformFee": 35.17610865914664, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
3535
MP
1719729427481
1.3
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf
6
92
2
https://firebasestorage.…39d-9765f676ab2c
25
[{"name": "Finance", "slug": "finance", "userId": "H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1667829760468}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1667829713849}, {"name": "Fed...
["economics-default", "finance", "federal-reserve", "inflation", "interest-rates"]
0.13949541272724253
0.5
1719729424301
1717169377793
0.5165019140679026
lPGkSpFhhLo7dEEmgsiG
{"NO": 382.44444444444525, "YES": 253.2345914367765}
0.52
how-much-advantage-will-republicans
103
How much advantage will Republicans gain in the House from gerrymandering?
1667948340000
uRLBoyv6dUa1usD5rEFlr46OorF3
cpmm-1
0
1.1286916285506243
True
play
MKT
public
1667830635777
Boklam
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After results from tomorrow's election are finalized, this market resolves to", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(percentage of House seats held by Republicans) - (percentage of voters who voted for Republican represen...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672792795384
310
Boklam
1672793060727
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3ibnjA23Hs3sitZ0cbnPDtIZRleyLSrM_fYI6l=s96-c
3
0
4
https://firebasestorage.…79b-c17f02816d38
6
[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1670435248430}]
["us-politics"]
0.5
1667849460068
1672793058261
0.52
0.5995406976569422
plcJRg9r5HOwyJmz1moE
{"NO": 677.4228852005195, "YES": 91.75937680896476}
1
will-subtropical-storm-nicole-make
3275.3470322507987
Will Subtropical Storm Nicole make landfall in Florida as a Hurricane?
1668076363167
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
cpmm-1
0
2.070222731209113
True
play
YES
public
1667831543895
Predictor 🔥
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668076363167
290
Predictor
1668076211016
0
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
15
0
https://firebasestorage.…c4e-73804abd4ebf
15
[{"name": "Weather", "slug": "weather", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "Vw7PuCkPJlK51z43wA4k", "createdTime": 1667831544188}]
["weather"]
0.5
1668076117116
1668076208596
0.9170312680359888
vQXMAxORBWAbdt1nqkQV
who-will-win-the-2022-microsoft-exc
529
Who will win the 2022 Microsoft Excel World Championship?
1668340781688
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.693963540077303
True
play
30710f720b1f
public
1667834159693
Predictor 🔥
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.fmworldcup.com/excel-esports/microsoft-excel-world-championship/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.fmworldcup.com/excel-esports/microsoft-excel-world-championship/", "class": "z-10 break-anywher...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668340792057
360
Predictor
1668340772986
0
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
1
0
DISABLED
[{"id": "30710f720b1f", "prob": 0.9764075269426042, "text": "Andrew Ngai", "index": 0, "poolNo": 13.659814530464814, "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.3300556349541107, "textFts": "'andrew':1 'ngai':2", "contractId": "vQXMAxORBWAbdt1nqkQV", "createdTime": 1667834159693, "probChang...
1
https://firebasestorage.…90e-5d3aa1ccb714
2
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1667834160155}]
["technology-default"]
1668340772790
1667834266920
{"30710f720b1f": 100}
True
0.3222153333969985
CNeoIys8EAbIjRQiA3Hv
{"NO": 350.8867951999547, "YES": 331.3491314860108}
0.33485253566991896
should-manifold-override-the-intent
218.69237564437552
Should Manifold override the intentionally incorrect resolution of "Will there be a report button within 2 months"?
1668439655745
tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3
cpmm-1
0
1.1673428423705383
True
play
CANCEL
public
1667834855745
FRC
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The creator of this market has purposefully resolved it incorrectly: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/stone/will-there-be-a-report-button-withi#2QdBFpsN1H1AOKpXimQ9", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href"...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668608986981
350
FRCassarino
1668611482030
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjb-7zU9ioj6KVjeqE5PItJsQaNuzMZm25pjZP9lA=s96-c
0
18
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…be3-6bb6526ac8fb
25
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1667834856056}]
["manifold-6748e065087e"]
0.5
1668439629452
1668611477222
0.33485253566991896
0.4296732540888106
ZrTY8TLOEiOSYu0ux4ue
{"NO": 279.99999999999994, "YES": 257.233396227157}
0.392
what-will-be-my-eothello-rating-on
10
What will be my eothello rating on Mar 1 2023?
1677646800000
JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2
cpmm-1
0
1.2865498831295425
True
play
MKT
public
1667839292424
Ibozz91
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Account:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.eothello.com/player/44797", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.eothello.com/player/44797", "class": "z-10 break-anywhere ho...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1679269706588
270
Ibozz91
1672307264625
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c
1
0
4
https://firebasestorage.…118-4e5050ed0393
3
[{"name": "Chess", "slug": "chess", "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1667839292661}]
["chess"]
0.428
1672307264458
1667839361473
0.392
0.5357609477915016
O2AMBc2I7c3fnrndJwDu
{"NO": 8682.301222050348, "YES": 427.1326408621738}
1
will-the-linked-lavlunee-stock-mark
12626.853489098125
Will the linked Lavlunee stock market resolve correctly?
1668070196983
9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2
cpmm-1
0
0.47449840903282503
True
basic
YES
public
1667840284550
arae
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "5BHTNVUwOFe8uhEhB7XW", "label": "/dgg4life/lavlunee-stock-random-november"}}, {"text": " resolves YES and its probability is above 50% at the time, or if that market ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668070196983
1920
a
1668070191735
0
https://firebasestorage.…33e-f49d13c87650
15
0
https://firebasestorage.…49c-ad0677aaa020
13
[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1667927522826}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime"...
["derivative-markets", "predictions-on-predictions", "destinygg", "insurance"]
0.5
1668070189330
1667840467197
0.81
hEs0sEgRxbIyTIswtvoY
what-will-i-work-on-this-friday-man
13
What will I work on this Friday? [Manifold developer]
1668470340000
tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.98013067025711
True
play
CANCEL
public
1667841024227
FRC
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll use this market to decide what to work on this Friday. The idea is that users should vote for something they really want done, that isn't already in my immediate roadmap. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "cont...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668608974081
280
FRCassarino
1668009416276
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjb-7zU9ioj6KVjeqE5PItJsQaNuzMZm25pjZP9lA=s96-c
2
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "3f5fa618c72a", "prob": 0.7831466833737959, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 57.694262553659705, "userId": "tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 15.975541301108372, "textFts": "", "contractId": "hEs0sEgRxbIyTIswtvoY", "createdTime": 1667841024795, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...
1
https://firebasestorage.…cc2-89ab24de9a00
3
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1667841024656}]
["manifold-6748e065087e"]
1668009416141
1667841162701
True
0.44583621649575145
yUS0TmdLyoKBQKQn1TfZ
{"NO": 45.218186689339674, "YES": 1190.4629960333584}
0
will-zvi-mowshowitz-have-a-blue-che
1108.8776246715581
Will Zvi Mowshowitz have a blue check by March 1, 2023?
1677449042256
WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2
cpmm-1
2.762515866224105
True
play
NO
public
1667841465847
Zvi Mowshowitz
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if at any time @TheZvi has a blue check, for any reason, before 3/1/23, NO otherwise. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1677449042256
290
ZviMowshowitz
1677550805026
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c
15
0
https://firebasestorage.…143-d9d0e3b0ec24
14
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1667841466116}]
["personal-goals"]
0.5
1677309004151
1677550800427
0.03
0.7533268457402392
w6JiZAevh7VSnsFfjNCd
{"NO": 255.1479206508954, "YES": 92.77325793706798}
1
midterm-tournament-insurance-will-a
214
[Midterm Tournament Insurance] Will all Midterm Tournament markets resolve accurately? If no, will Manifold fix any improperly resolved markets within one month of misresolution?
1672549140000
7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1
cpmm-1
0
3.033984303335735
True
play
YES
public
1667844921841
Charlie
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The default method for classifying a market as improperly resolved is my judgement that it contradicts the Associated Press and Reuters.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\"Fix\" here means that mana will be...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672948097848
130
Charlie
1672673291228
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c
5
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…9fd-6efb83973278
6
[{"name": "Insurance", "slug": "insurance", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "kqp0AgdFL7ZRDhZDOHa7", "createdTime": 1667844922052}]
["insurance"]
0.5
1669422093726
1672673289588
0.89
0.5346652442642209
yoeEwyVhYc5BHnI2XTmM
{"NO": 439.9293366967268, "YES": 315.2006457827295}
0.6159252696726318
if-in-2030-atmospheric-co2-is-440-p
140.07066330327245
IF in 2030, atmospheric CO2 is 440-445 ppm, what will be the global temperature anomaly in 2030?
1924991940000
TbeT2K5xMIfEcPTGxz1opJ0njKz1
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1667845823173
Abhimanyu Pallavi Sudhir
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Annual CO2 level from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/data.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/data.html", "class": "z-10 break-anywhere hover:underlin...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
370
AbhimanyuPallaviSudhir
1693723686602
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqeZlLV5_IdG8ip6z4QZPnaJwfGNLtlxgDJQiUTZw=s96-c
6
0
https://firebasestorage.…f99-2390403020b9
6
[{"name": "Climate", "slug": "climate", "userId": "TbeT2K5xMIfEcPTGxz1opJ0njKz1", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw", "createdTime": 1667845823477}]
["climate"]
0.5
1693723686452
1672699097024
0.528937440840081
2Ff32mrt9HUOiLqVtunh
{"NO": 419.99999999999943, "YES": 295.16087587643324}
0.6150555190439915
if-in-2030-atmospheric-co2-is-43544
72.00000000000014
IF in 2030, atmospheric CO2 is 435-440 ppm, what will be the global temperature anomaly in 2030?
1924991940000
TbeT2K5xMIfEcPTGxz1opJ0njKz1
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1667845956635
Abhimanyu Pallavi Sudhir
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Annual CO2 level from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/data.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/data.html", "class": "z-10 break-anywhere hover:underlin...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
350
AbhimanyuPallaviSudhir
1693723669435
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqeZlLV5_IdG8ip6z4QZPnaJwfGNLtlxgDJQiUTZw=s96-c
5
0
https://firebasestorage.…f38-fbeda49e0757
5
[{"name": "Climate", "slug": "climate", "userId": "TbeT2K5xMIfEcPTGxz1opJ0njKz1", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw", "createdTime": 1667845956913}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680737087209}]
["climate", "ancient-markets"]
0.5
1693723669295
1667846044100
0.20949208706001599
TQcvJN7kXcqqDcp4NXhE
{"NO": 989.6105842282776, "YES": 959.29693617642}
0.21469077167312586
will-an-mrna-hiv-vaccine-pass-phase
374.3740420676096
Will an mRNA HIV vaccine pass Phase 2 trials by 2025
1767254340000
4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2
cpmm-1
0.03373556248100126
9.667787597516469
False
basic
public
1667847116465
VivaLaPanda
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Phase 1 trials are underway: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-launches-clinical-trial-three-mrna-hiv-vaccines", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nih.gov/news-ev...
BINARY
{"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.1488072117199785, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
VivaLaPanda
1717191656227
1.1
https://firebasestorage.…e16-276f17b9c90e
17
0
https://firebasestorage.…3ab-0a41f30b737b
12
[{"name": "Health", "slug": "health", "userId": "4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1667847116720}, {"name": "Biology", "slug": "biology", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "82OVufkY4rbpp5uizfqL", "createdTime": 1678996096585}]
["health", "biology"]
0.11338784077575786
0.5
1717191653068
1667849300892
0.4148531698308647
m1je0ZDnp8cyzR7fWfZe
{"NO": 125.14609031498786, "YES": 151.5721662265193}
0.36923076923076914
what-will-thekwh-price-for-battery
173.89101228035165
What will the $/kWh price for battery cells be at the end of 2030
1925020740000
4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1667847542707
VivaLaPanda
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The cost of Lithium Ion battery capacity has dropped signfiicantly over time: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ourworldindata.org/...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
330
VivaLaPanda
1688414026608
1.1
https://firebasestorage.…e16-276f17b9c90e
1
7
0
https://firebasestorage.…666-3a1de53f73a3
6
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1667847543012}]
["technology-default"]
0.10404465704218864
0.9769230769230769
1688414026477
1673027780408
0.8081835973109281
k21G3OiEt01XfiIHOQK4
{"NO": 106.55705118155946, "YES": 345.3309198850664}
0.5652330458626683
what-will-thekwh-price-for-battery-9be2736d86b3
366.80572810296303
What will the $/kWh price for battery cells be at the end of 2025
1767254340000
4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1667847587798
VivaLaPanda
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The cost of Lithium Ion battery capacity has dropped signfiicantly over time: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ourworldindata.org/...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": -5.551115123125783e-16, "week": -5.551115123125783e-16, "month": -5.551115123125783e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
350
VivaLaPanda
1707666370817
0
https://firebasestorage.…e16-276f17b9c90e
7
0
https://firebasestorage.…24e-32b9437ab5e1
5
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1667847588177}]
["technology-default"]
0.9769230769230769
1707666370674
1673028106677
0.4119017789309971
BSRiRNDqw6UwC687ymQA
{"NO": 248.3904909345997, "YES": 300.7718942841092}
1
will-someone-win-the-19-billion-pow
177.1019330174855
Will someone win the $1.9 billion Powerball jackpot tonight?
1667879940000
wBZSAA3MrnWjz7eHrKAq43OXBtA2
cpmm-1
0
1.3094476305688123
True
play
YES
public
1667849380720
Trent Yazzo
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if one person or multiple people win the jackpot 11-7-2022. Do not have to come forward to claim the prize, ticket just needs to be sold.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667931995810
270
kazoo
1667931985131
0
https://firebasestorage.…b09-3312ffa70d6f
14
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…b07-de342596d23c
15
[{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "wBZSAA3MrnWjz7eHrKAq43OXBtA2", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1667849442076}, {"name": "Finance", "slug": "finance", "userId": "wBZSAA3MrnWjz7eHrKAq43OXBtA2", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1667849439286...
["economics-default", "wall-street-bets", "finance", "entertainment", "fun"]
0.5
1667876466391
1667931984669
0.3664541087333235
0.42148153349966433
soX5KByIbdZXkMI2zmIx
{"NO": 97.19347275654263, "YES": 2463.270155748357}
0
will-scott-alexander-review-the-net
2433.5265501307035
Will Scott Alexander review The Network State by Balaji Srinivasan?
1704085140000
946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2
cpmm-1
3.078191837246648e-16
1.7465554042946223
True
play
NO
public
1667851102979
JAAM
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if Scott Alexander has not posted a review of The Network State by Balaji Srinivasan (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://thenetworkstate.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://thenetworkstate.com...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704205405009
430
egroj
1704210145730
0.1
https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686
0
23
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…3e9-972ad44f7ed4
9
[{"name": "ACX", "slug": "acx", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29", "createdTime": 1667851103268}, {"name": "Blogs", "slug": "blogs", "groupId": "924bd6a5-2849-4b46-9cea-28e21b9fe77f", "createdTime": 1697877157717}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-r...
["acx", "blogs", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.09281898695850241
0.5
1704083048478
1704210145030
0.03
946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2
0.4708166951321299
MFyKw0pjCBfGs98NXefD
{"NO": 501.61258547795626, "YES": 49.58743397796979}
1
will-the-brazilian-supreme-court-ou
667.1039262221636
Will the Brazilian Supreme Court outlaw unidentified amendments to the Federal Budget ("Secret Budget") by the end of 2022?
1671465794408
90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1
cpmm-1
0
2.440709303932772
True
play
YES
public
1667851590901
Bernardo Chrispim Baron
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.brasildefato.com.br/2022/10/07/understand-why-the-so-called-secret-budget-is-related-to-illegality-and-corruption", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.brasild...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671465794408
170
BernardoChrispimBaron
1671466602414
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0YTALNHIfZHMGUhLCzX8YOJ9J-b-6RyfwHbeEd=s96-c
9
0
https://firebasestorage.…05a-00030886513a
10
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1668282752611}, {"name": "LatAm & Caribbean", "slug": "latam-caribbean", "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "groupId": "9Gafi93SU4eHXKhWCWj6", "createdTime": 1668282749835...
["brazil-3292d24d179f", "latam-caribbean", "politics-default", "supremo-tribunal-federal"]
0.5
1671460801021
1671466598467
0.9
0.5020856461178981
Uth4goNWyrwAEnzbbSbe
{"NO": 518.0801122486511, "YES": 541.297986226981}
0.12
this-market-will-resolve-to-a-rando
304.760721249192
This market will resolve to a random percentage (predetermined).
1699311540000
sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2
cpmm-1
7.010100941854671e-16
0.6303847829703615
True
play
MKT
public
1667853008985
howtodowtle
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I predetermined the percentage that this market will resolve to using a random number generator.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The result is stored here and will be visible on 7 Nov 2023: ", "type": "tex...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1699634583386
530
howtodowtle
1700852397864
0.1
https://firebasestorage.…b11-2cb01c3ab380
26
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…b74-0bf40d254ed6
13
[{"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1670153753305}, {"name": "randomization", "slug": "randomization", "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "groupId": "YOkz3UZsh7MkxtA4ANBZ", "createdTime": 1670153750343}, {"n...
["fun", "randomization", "fairlyrandom", "experimental"]
0.09426102006155095
0.5
1699310648080
1700852397114
0.12
0.3494481182523946
JaidnMiKSzMeVfHMLKs0
{"NO": 323.14709912289464, "YES": 342.62837715433204}
0.33626024848139247
what-will-us-total-fertility-rate-b
88.86063488931555
What will US total fertility rate be in 2030
1925020740000
4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2
cpmm-1
0.08358013447433076
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1667853925497
VivaLaPanda
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "TFR data: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/fertility-rate", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/fertility-rate", ...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": 3.3306690738754696e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
330
VivaLaPanda
1696041751479
1.1
https://firebasestorage.…e16-276f17b9c90e
1
5
0
https://firebasestorage.…ce4-7113796316c3
3
[{"name": "Health", "slug": "health", "userId": "4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1667853925944}]
["health"]
0.09537881598852305
0.3564
1696041751272
1667854037088
0.7278283077187752
FxrzkOIBMp7SFxEP7JXw
{"NO": 1415.61735510551, "YES": 27.256999529285093}
1
will-jako-publish-a-mainchannel-vid
2726.267875383127
Will Jako publish a main-channel video before the 31st of December 2022?
1672336220000
XnWIxExQE7dlzNL2NybkmAXvJo53
cpmm-1
0
5.755275553565305
True
play
YES
public
1667854278867
Jako
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672336220000
110
Brunching
1672336203717
0
https://firebasestorage.…e74-2641ebb986da
5
0
https://firebasestorage.…987-bf3a048dea9b
6
0.5
1672336203609
1667854414915
0.01
0.27547557603891193
cc2MnV9iPiyO7Ng8n6Vy
{"NO": 1972.030816258283, "YES": 72.9876371614239}
1
will-twitter-ban-elonjet-the-accoun
7787.976475202926
Will Twitter ban @Elonjet the account that monitors Elon Musk's plane before the end of 2023?
1671027788847
B5BbCJcEHBhPusNyQE2BR6dgR6Y2
cpmm-1
0
1.3705929696088228
True
play
YES
public
1667854282505
Tim
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Elon Musk has publicly stated how much he dislikes the twitter account that tracks the movement's of his private jet and previously offered $5,000 to its owner to delete it. He's described it as \"a direct personal safety risk\" but said his commit...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671027788847
910
timtumbles
1710451936619
0
https://firebasestorage.…c9f-41059c192b91
1
40
0
https://firebasestorage.…724-8cbc67e0137b
40
[{"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]
["twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]
0.5
1671027704559
1671052856534
0.91
0.7993404600565279
A3vxDXbmvZUqWeutgfkR
{"NO": 14548.5963668671, "YES": 49.87992048644628}
1
will-arm-experience-a-liquidity-eve
14914.657640884841
Will ARM experience a liquidity event in 2023
1696546516872
4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2
cpmm-1
0
0.6981849745899025
True
play
YES
public
1667854627873
VivaLaPanda
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "ARM is hoping to IPO in 2023, but market conditions may stall that: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/best-destination-for-softbanks-arm-ipo-is-nowhere", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1696546516872
250
VivaLaPanda
1696542908393
0
https://firebasestorage.…e16-276f17b9c90e
12
0
https://firebasestorage.…f9d-512f5590c3a9
5
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1667854629947}]
["technology-default"]
0.5
1696542906954
1667854656220
1
0.2548364812787297
rJS480sYFFKY1CQRrlrt
{"NO": 336.9625046307003, "YES": 491.27312924870915}
0.05
predict-metaculus-us-const-conventi
329.9933012787529
Predict Metaculus: U.S. Const. Convention called before 2028
1668056400000
4w7ZYpvZ3OfE0A8fuWttBVZWvRR2
cpmm-1
0
1.2684149094578954
True
play
MKT
public
1667854632868
Johnny Ten-Numbers
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The following Metaculus question is set to open in three days: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13449/us-const-convention-called-before-2028/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://w...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668638510898
380
1941159478
1710462518843
0
https://firebasestorage.…5d6-609a1a4230e5
0
11
0
2
https://firebasestorage.…160-3e0dd3090d5f
13
[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "Meta-Forecasting", "slug": "metaforecasting", "groupId": "aWVjDvevw8dDKKbURvgx"}, {"name": "Short fuse", "slug": "short-fuse", "grou...
["us-politics", "politics-default", "metaforecasting", "short-fuse", "reciprocal-scoring"]
0.5
1668055083336
1667859073931
0.05
0.41149009854130025
nh8OaAtfV9yTJe4z8fqj
{"NO": 99.4690398369453, "YES": 367.1748352321907}
0
will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-aca1e2156ca4
1309.5654619345223
Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $4.00 on November 8, 2022?
1667937600000
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
cpmm-1
0
2.1002384857080005
True
play
NO
public
1667855071917
Predictor 🔥
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock ma...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667941248559
190
Predictor
1667942416575
0
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
10
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…091-49a8f6b9b8c5
11
[{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1667855072184}]
["wall-street-bets"]
0.5
1667934001070
1667942415193
0.1592524871583221
0.07562543270603096
QfzdjXH9kzHUWEMPTbhb
{"NO": 912.632421081536, "YES": 2019.1243015311516}
0.03566012384683782
will-trump-be-disqualified-from-the
3777.6683500615327
Will Trump be disqualified from the presidency on insurrection grounds
1730869140000
k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2
cpmm-1
0
10.51971956790781
False
basic
public
1667856997570
Olivia🏳️‍⚧️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES iff ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this challenge", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-candidacy-14th-amendment-insurrection-disqualification-crew_n_63688d0ce4b08f849aaca63...
BINARY
{"day": -6.938893903907228e-18, "week": -6.938893903907228e-18, "month": -6.938893903907228e-18}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.26235249354336615, "platformFee": 0.13366931088407438, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
LivInTheLookingGlass
1716726932669
0
https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97
35
0
https://firebasestorage.…1b1-3a9e231e5829
19
[{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "🐘 Republican Party", "slug": "magaland", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb"}, {"name": "Law & Or...
["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "magaland", "law-order", "olivia"]
0.5
1716726929102
1667857297776
0.7825059444155809
oHQLHCprCBDfEGU1njYI
{"NO": 3604.0232457011043, "YES": 272.8826788519777}
1
will-volodymyr-zelenskyy-be-the-202
5303.1879425211555
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the 2022 TIME Person of the Year?
1670425850894
w2cCkAnKP0TcjIoQKSTp4nMV5G32
cpmm-1
0
1.4705179767788024
True
play
YES
public
1667859235413
Gustav
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy is named as TIME's Person of the Year for 2022, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No\".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670425904305
530
Gustav
1670420587366
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3GZv_-CMXczXLvdE3ElQwxwrpuvR94R3_0EqxSOQ=s96-c
25
0
https://firebasestorage.…711-fc06fb9cdcd6
26
[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "w2cCkAnKP0TcjIoQKSTp4nMV5G32", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1667859235755}, {"name": "TIME Person of the Year", "slug": "time-person-of-the-year", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "RCfwD1s4qIECOtPgrtmi", "createdTime": 16695...
["world-default", "time-person-of-the-year"]
0.5
1670420587247
1670420331291
0.9793888005444713
0.49660666771503154
PNd2xKUOT01kzcvS5UM1
{"NO": 53.80630553816544, "YES": 53.806305538165425}
1
will-dry-hotpot-be-good
20.030997555519566
Will dry hotpot be good?
1667872310295
7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1
cpmm-1
0
4.201407075503803
True
play
YES
public
1667863794940
Charlie
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We will be using ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Fire Hot Pot Base | Fly By Jing", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://flybyjing.com/shop/fire-hot-pot-base/", "class": "z-10 break-anywhere hove...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667872310295
70
Charlie
1667870940672
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c
1
0
https://firebasestorage.…552-4600a49607ae
2
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1667863806569}, {"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1667864693367}]
["personal-goals", "fun"]
0.5
1667870940485
1667867355672
0.49660666771503176
0.330065384014246
60ExtIJzcXeWEwpT1ssI
{"NO": 33.73403320637232, "YES": 2200.932604702811}
0
will-mbs-visit-pakistan-by-the-end
4296.347337439623
Will MBS visit Pakistan by the end of 2022?
1672538140949
4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2
cpmm-1
0
4.239273196783376
True
play
NO
public
1667867922004
Brian T. Edwards
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Prince is tentatively scheduled to visit Pakistan in late-November, but the uncertain political climate in Pakistan has made things a bit more complicated. Resolves YES if MBS visits by the end of 2022. NO if not. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type":...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672538140949
190
BTE
1672538134027
0
https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c
10
0
https://firebasestorage.…f53-8e93c9311a96
6
[{"name": "MBS", "slug": "mbs", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "44tFNTiGdasU0INGAQhf", "createdTime": 1669114644160}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1667867922254}, {"name": "Prime Millenn...
["global-macro", "mbs", "prime-millennial"]
0.5
1672538133871
1667867985462
0.07
0.6939256946315284
1DZZ4dAaxbbOwyUt48NO
{"NO": 259.2312703220249, "YES": 24.488503305303606}
1
will-georges-seurats-painting-les-p
309.01822788227827
Will Georges Seurat's painting 'Les Poseuses' (1888) fetch more than $100mm at auction November 9th?
1668046833122
4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2
cpmm-1
0
5.7826120280061
True
play
YES
public
1667869459445
Brian T. Edwards
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fw0w_cOGokw.56?alt=media&token=c35edc0e-3119-4f1d-b014-163c5e7ad221", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "GEORGES SEURAT (...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668046833122
70
BTE
1668046829342
0
https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c
3
0
https://firebasestorage.…d7f-d5f044de4b6a
4
[{"name": "Art Dealer", "slug": "art-dealer", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "Xj7qMWnWg7aTsuoKgerd", "createdTime": 1667869459674}]
["art-dealer"]
0.5
1668040354613
1668046827453
0.9600000000000003
0.4997448253569678
YwGWzuWzkX7UY5JNoLYU
{"NO": 56.371284922575455, "YES": 45.13082820203815}
1
will-an-undisclosed-person-vote-yes-208c243de821
125.58287097234316
Will an undisclosed person vote "yes" on this market? [repeat]
1667870131942
x4Md3ynwwyWjoGOYlkJvcO9vqQT2
cpmm-1
0
4.376536981366353
True
play
YES
public
1667869821294
pancakes ♠︎
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[repeat because i didn't set the proper date oops]", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MARKET:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The person will be rerolled from last...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667870131942
130
cece
1687208211826
0
https://firebasestorage.…130-ba6f3589b750
5
0
https://firebasestorage.…5a7-828b801cd452
6
[{"name": "Proofniks", "slug": "proofniks", "userId": "x4Md3ynwwyWjoGOYlkJvcO9vqQT2", "groupId": "HWg8Z5SraHRjoEjHCcIJ", "createdTime": 1667869821547}]
["proofniks"]
0.5
1667870132031
1687208208795
0.5580525420061454
F3MhhT3If9WsfCPFzp1S
how-far-off-will-different-predicti
85
How far off will different prediction platforms be in forecasting the 2022 midterms?
1667941200000
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.853776548250242
True
play
MKT
public
1667869833879
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will score several prediction platforms on a set of 10 questions on the outcome of the 2022 US midterm elections. For each prediction platform, I will take the predicted probabilities on Monday evening, and compute the average ", "type": "text"},...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672982980798
520
jack
1672983094786
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
0
4
0
DISABLED
[{"id": "d857d2ec6462", "prob": 0.18187206511530832, "text": "Manifold", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15.190148914659165, "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 68.33091796841873, "textFts": "'manifold':1", "contractId": "F3MhhT3If9WsfCPFzp1S", "createdTime": 1667869833879, "probChanges": {"day...
4
https://firebasestorage.…a79-1239cb332897
5
[{"name": "Election forecast comparison", "slug": "election-forecast-comparison", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "r3rY9nNBd19OEPzrowdd", "createdTime": 1667869834132}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": ...
["election-forecast-comparison", "predictions-on-predictions", "us-politics"]
1667920866146
1672983091952
False
{"0ef529824aa4": 15.142133408387279, "1126d3605a06": 12.496481846327047, "646cc3bded24": 15.367295243456233, "6e1166091172": 11.736560652969322, "795c520c40cd": 17.16858992400788, "abbcdf878cd5": 14.607374050098509, "d857d2ec6462": 13.48156487475373}
True
0.5448731957823663
rpeLORwng1c9cgrUTMZf
{"NO": 255.34611131335816, "YES": 234.86584790148424}
0.5655167353933882
will-an-undisclosed-person-vote-yes-ff65d47df7ce
511.8169438670037
Will an undisclosed person vote "yes" on this market? [repeat x2]
1672559940000
x4Md3ynwwyWjoGOYlkJvcO9vqQT2
cpmm-1
0
0.9470357991133599
True
play
CANCEL
public
1667870447176
pancakes ♠︎
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[repeat because it ended in like five minutes]", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LOG (of people who have been rolled thus far) (where higher number = more recent):", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs":...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672562795019
250
cece
1672562792151
0
https://firebasestorage.…130-ba6f3589b750
13
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…594-4302264b6b39
13
[{"name": "Proofniks", "slug": "proofniks", "userId": "x4Md3ynwwyWjoGOYlkJvcO9vqQT2", "groupId": "HWg8Z5SraHRjoEjHCcIJ", "createdTime": 1667870447472}]
["proofniks"]
0.5
1672556377636
1672562790238
0.57
0.3406020509010901
YF97wlaRcvMWNQ8upd1h
{"NO": 332.58073163007475, "YES": 4114.9228101915305}
0
will-manifold-beat-538-on-midterms
5102.70677872144
Will Manifold beat 538 on midterms predictions?
1671080340000
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
0.808242235608676
True
play
NO
public
1667870766468
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will score several prediction platforms on a set of 10 questions on the outcome of the 2022 US midterm elections. For each prediction platform, I will take the predicted probabilities on Monday evening, and compute the average log score (a measur...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672606400382
950
jack
1672607259702
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
0
33
0
4
https://firebasestorage.…f29-d6097589021d
27
[{"name": "Election forecast comparison", "slug": "election-forecast-comparison", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "r3rY9nNBd19OEPzrowdd", "createdTime": 1667870766913}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": ...
["election-forecast-comparison", "predictions-on-predictions"]
0.5
1671046821033
1672606399029
0.04
0.7741002558373301
FQK6biBszcxVwxGDPRaQ
{"NO": 4227.728471415504, "YES": 312.1623666388027}
1
will-manifold-beat-predictit-on-mid
5187.51238580415
Will Manifold beat PredictIt on midterms predictions?
1671080340000
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
1.2603649391330123
True
play
YES
public
1667870892902
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will score several prediction platforms on a set of 10 questions on the outcome of the 2022 US midterm elections. For each prediction platform, I will take the predicted probabilities on Monday evening, and compute the average log score (a measur...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672606325564
670
jack
1672606323209
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
0
30
0
4
https://firebasestorage.…881-30d9c6bd4e8c
31
[{"name": "Election forecast comparison", "slug": "election-forecast-comparison", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "r3rY9nNBd19OEPzrowdd", "createdTime": 1667870893143}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": ...
["election-forecast-comparison", "predictions-on-predictions"]
0.5
1671046798464
1672606302731
0.98
0.6786017276060169
hXkqpbwwEMza0u6MXBde
{"NO": 5481.030142770817, "YES": 259.11145217315857}
1
will-538-beat-polymarket-on-midterm
10684.303840056526
Will 538 beat Polymarket on midterms predictions?
1671080340000
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
1.0421265475974155
True
play
YES
public
1667871140706
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will score several prediction platforms on a set of 10 questions on the outcome of the 2022 US midterm elections. For each prediction platform, I will take the predicted probabilities on Monday evening, and compute the average log score (a measur...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672606275996
870
jack
1672607028676
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
0
29
0
4
https://firebasestorage.…7ba-30b91c6b8301
24
[{"name": "Election forecast comparison", "slug": "election-forecast-comparison", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "r3rY9nNBd19OEPzrowdd", "createdTime": 1667871140941}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": ...
["election-forecast-comparison", "predictions-on-predictions", "us-politics"]
0.5
1671046702946
1672606271320
False
0.98
0.542112230003218
nsZe5BIHe6i0uakEbgzY
{"NO": 387.9042900933581, "YES": 318.8947541277734}
1
will-an-undisclosed-person-bet-an-o
353.1526152728485
Will an undisclosed person bet an odd total amount on this market?
1668499140000
HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433
cpmm-1
0
1.0187757016939116
True
play
YES
public
1667872820344
Conflux
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll pick a random person from the \"top creators\" tab in the Proofniks group (similar to Connor's methodology on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/ConnorHuh/will-an-undisclosed-person-vote-yes-ff65d47df7ce", "type": "text", "...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668523861970
350
Conflux
1668523879177
0
https://firebasestorage.…cdd-373b64a5cd17
18
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…f44-38cb8c9fb445
18
[{"name": "Proofniks", "slug": "proofniks", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "HWg8Z5SraHRjoEjHCcIJ", "createdTime": 1667872820619}, {"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1667872876701}]
["proofniks", "fun"]
0.5
1668499111650
1668523876828
0.5901889273035245
0.38518067830389846
NmynNIuJCZN3H2csmkkr
{"NO": 391.833508503692, "YES": 13.626588256057996}
1
will-north-korea-test-a-hwasong17-i
1471.7489865091504
Will North Korea test a Hwasong-17 ICBM before they test a nuclear weapon?
1670076316658
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
4.039743674508718
True
play
YES
public
1667874689764
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if North Korea test launches a Hwasong-17 ICBM. Resolves NO if North Korea conducts a nuclear weapon test. Resolves N/A if neither happens by end of 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670076316658
110
jack
1670076301287
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
6
0
https://firebasestorage.…d66-0e1be8879c22
4
[{"name": "North Korea", "slug": "north-korea", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "5aafMiQ5NeYij6TE1G1i", "createdTime": 1667874690015}, {"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1670076340422}]
["north-korea", "nuclear-risk"]
0.5
1669742009213
1670076298081
0.9474096136131507
0.4590415633900251
CyXAnAPxWgb8qgenjhAE
{"NO": 48.04691497209447, "YES": 412.24225209933127}
0
will-geometry-dash-22-release-befor
410.79275457567894
Will Geometry Dash 2.2 release before 2023?
1672629682651
vPuZEsvT9VSFFke5h5TQaEkHWdo2
cpmm-1
0
2.8530083587951918
True
play
NO
public
1667878359924
cc6 ♠︎
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Geometry Dash is a popular mobile/PC game that I'm sure many of you have heard of. However, it has not recieved an update in 5 years. Currently the game is on update 2.11, and rumors state that 2.2 is going to be released soon. However, RobTop, the...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672629682651
130
cc6
1672174460078
0
https://firebasestorage.…dd1-f7270eef5cfe
7
0
https://firebasestorage.…133-06ebe6f7d7bb
8
[{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "vPuZEsvT9VSFFke5h5TQaEkHWdo2", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1667878621330}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "vPuZEsvT9VSFFke5h5TQaEkHWdo2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1667878360229}, {"name": "Vid...
["technology-default", "gaming", "video-games"]
0.5
1672174459941
1667878477666
0.09
0.4765144772250363
tch32ZFutgWKrH7RX6rP
{"NO": 111.45943562831299, "YES": 1025.8577569527192}
0.05
is-yitang-zhangs-preprint-on-landau
1713.2839981665202
How correct is Yitang Zhang's preprint on Landau-Siegel zeros?
1704085140000
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
1.5215539041670165
True
play
MKT
public
1667878834118
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves on a scale of 0% to 100% where 0% is \"no new ideas\" and 100% is \"essentially proved the theorem as stated\". Resolves when the mathematical community has formed a consensus or at the end of 2023, whichever is earlier. Resolution will be...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1706492409602
370
jack
1706492409863
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
19
0
6
https://firebasestorage.…fe0-c0449b701608
15
[{"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1667878834539}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703132492610}]
["mathematics", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1703683967289
1706492341288
0.05
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23