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0.11572880379267027 | gYeGgVmHlvfSPS2anngm | {"NO": 1612.6537627456512, "YES": 1389.5321331935947} | 0.131861376143074 | will-a-thirdparty-candidate-win-the | 4716.190536471098 | Will a third-party candidate win the US presidency by 2040? | 2240611140000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.536278180923048 | False | basic | public | 1667778201916 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Including the 2040 election.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.281400048117852, "platformFee": 5.281400048117852, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1610 | IsaacKing | 1714826049763 | 0 | 2 | 88 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1667778202129}] | ["us-politics"] | 0.5 | 1714826046431 | 1681411076198 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8742678218228366 | cQX9J0cb1PekILbt8PUT | {"NO": 2223.2451559741135, "YES": 2063.6203188340614} | 0.8822320257298009 | anastasiya-stock-permanent | 78775.884712189 | Anastasiya Stock (Permanent) | 33217163036424 | JPuDK6vqApNtlerwo6Qis33ZjE83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.1416635565026585 | False | basic | public | 1667780640840 | odecay | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market for Friend of the Stream (not orbiter) Anastasiya Paraskevova.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Yes = Buy", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "No = Short", "type": "text"}, {"type": "h... | STONK | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.028991055581355396} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.38786087907378, "platformFee": 8.254825955019076, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2115 | odecay | 1718620125901 | 0.2 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjJQp3YEgGP_Ia7crDLnmrqkLeCQecbSTfueNIObw=s96-c | 7 | 454 | 0 | 284 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}, {"name": "all stonks", "slug": "all-stonks", "groupId": "82a3ffe0-4f06-4a64-a341-963e9767d08e"}, {"name": "Permanent Markets", "slug": "permanent-markets", "groupId": "2T4mM0N5az2lYcaN5G50"}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredicti... | ["destinygg", "all-stonks", "permanent-markets", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"] | 0.19498208042527818 | 0.5 | False | False | 1718620122773 | 1680650242328 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.6614953689011289 | qWLzhaLlMF81PHusMJIt | {"NO": 505.3501533615675, "YES": 68.10077365269692} | 0.95 | poll-did-cosmo-repay-me-m1010 | 435.2285882601279 | Poll: Did Cosmo repay me M$1010? | 1668401940000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.94226426275642 | True | play | MKT | public | 1667784401272 | Jenny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This poll is about ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "2Z8J6Y2S1J52xgM9kMME", "label": "/Yev/i-want-to-invest-m1000-for-1-week-h"}}, {"text": ". Cosmo has agreed to send me M$1010. He has sent me a manalink for M$1, wh... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668483784607 | 150 | Jenny | 1668401915976 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "Loans", "slug": "loans", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "tGI8aX6j8Nen9qgpgkJV", "createdTime": 1667784403443}, {"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1667784401591}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "man... | ["polls", "loans", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1668401915820 | 1668045450530 | 0.95 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3595364915472097 | P6C37fAAURn1RRaXzgdE | {"NO": 48.19978257163157, "YES": 3038.691918152105} | 0 | will-xnoai-still-exist-in-november | 3362.6309920649323 | Will xno.ai still exist in November 2023? | 1699343940000 | PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.1745965501346403 | True | play | NO | public | 1667787956851 | horse | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "xno.ai", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://xno.ai", "class": "z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is a Stable Diffusion-as-a-serv... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1699385421576 | 250 | horse | 1699286320992 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1667787957165}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 16807370866... | ["technology-default", "ancient-markets"] | 0.5 | 1699286320669 | 1667788041762 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6608003134288631 | QWF3KKdPbib9sKxRXQoE | {"NO": 3200.966227335949, "YES": 1510.7123668926195} | 0.8049829523134396 | jidion-stock-permanent | 17182.58886537433 | JiDion Stock (Permanent) | 33217163036416 | GgEwiiBGdmUrMJhqIOnH2rGCSSt1 | cpmm-1 | 0.06399345882193927 | 5.141663556502659 | False | basic | public | 1667788446559 | Cooley | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Permanent Market for JiDion.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Yes = Buy", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "No = Short", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This is a permanent... | STONK | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1980 | Cooley | 1713584700158 | 1.2 | 1 | 134 | 0 | 55 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}, {"name": "all stonks", "slug": "all-stonks", "groupId": "82a3ffe0-4f06-4a64-a341-963e9767d08e"}, {"name": "Permanent Markets", "slug": "permanent-markets", "groupId": "2T4mM0N5az2lYcaN5G50"}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredicti... | ["destinygg", "all-stonks", "permanent-markets", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"] | 0.1864394687675857 | 0.5 | False | False | 1712024505078 | 1667788532138 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.36360870578445076 | UzRFjaSl19b8f0OHoaMA | {"NO": 58.84113285723189, "YES": 163.99999999999983} | 0 | clicking-to-switch-to-a-different-t | 74 | Clicking to switch to a different tab on a user's profile page is very slow, often a ~1s delay to load the new tab | 1704139414324 | 0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.4792294530516976 | True | play | NO | public | 1667788577712 | Manifold Bugs | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this bug be 1) recognized as valid by a member of the Manifold core team, and 2) fixed in a week? Filed from https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/1039005236746006538", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704139418679 | 90 | ManifoldBugs | 1704139418971 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | [{"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "userId": "0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1667788577983}] | ["bugs"] | 0.5 | 1667861970096 | 1704060234660 | 0.17 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.47393364928909565 | cMPL20wY1uqxsRuUjScu | {"NO": 61.66666666666674, "YES": 79.99999999999984} | 0.4098360655737675 | a-users-entire-portfolio-page-freez | 10 | A user's entire portfolio page freezes while the graphs are loading | 1667865540000 | 0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.5751013475362114 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1667788578066 | Manifold Bugs | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this bug be 1) recognized as valid by a member of the Manifold core team, and 2) fixed in a week? Filed from https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/1039004980524359752", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1691494811526 | 70 | ManifoldBugs | 1667821845738 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | [{"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "userId": "0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1667788578308}] | ["bugs"] | 0.5 | 1667821844350 | 1667788660571 | 0.41 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8033753860535744 | maCDQ6a0beiuRx6kiAuG | {"NO": 1353.995097323289, "YES": 2173.7407842787075} | 0.7179135741131573 | imreallyimportant-stock-permanent | 6868.851408332513 | imreallyimportant Stock (Permanent) | 33217163036429 | GgEwiiBGdmUrMJhqIOnH2rGCSSt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.14166355650266 | False | basic | public | 1667788704058 | Cooley | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Permanent market for political friend of the stream imreallyimportant.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = Buy", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "No = Short", "type": "text"... | STONK | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2000 | Cooley | 1713584702324 | 0 | 131 | 0 | 91 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}, {"name": "all stonks", "slug": "all-stonks", "groupId": "82a3ffe0-4f06-4a64-a341-963e9767d08e"}, {"name": "Permanent Markets", "slug": "permanent-markets", "groupId": "2T4mM0N5az2lYcaN5G50"}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredicti... | ["destinygg", "all-stonks", "permanent-markets", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"] | 0.5 | False | False | 1709241197196 | 1668270645657 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6912241463702478 | Z0Pkd5c3sJ3fkB8y9xef | {"NO": 379.4428404248381, "YES": 158.46021960264983} | 0.8 | poll-is-it-socially-acceptable-for | 220.93180278588 | Poll: Is it socially acceptable for the market creator to bet on their private poll market? | 1668401940000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.9228596626274475 | True | play | MKT | public | 1667790347392 | Jenny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I create a private strawpoll, I can see the results at any time, but other traders can only see them after it's closed. Is it socially acceptable for me to trade in this case?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668408272692 | 220 | Jenny | 1668408322560 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 11 | [{"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1667790347701}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1667790389088}] | ["polls", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1668401914842 | 1668408308460 | 0.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8275081143736388 | qt8ZUIJ6SKHvPkC2FmW4 | {"NO": 1906.968219902757, "YES": 1075.2093278783163} | 0 | will-at-least-one-congressional-can | 1948.9235915669567 | Will at least one Congressional candidate contest election results in 2022? | 1668038340000 | SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.5773302371998623 | True | basic | NO | public | 1667791545509 | Scott Alexander | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves positive if a major-party candidate for US Congress in the 2022 midterm elections contests the results of the election they were in, including:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"ty... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670559829636 | 1210 | ScottAlexander | 1668790964280 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwBTuc9HH2ol7466asmjnFco0Z6LioKnIYqdNEn=s96-c | 0 | 46 | 0 | 4 | 46 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1667791628934}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 16677916228... | ["us-politics", "us-2022-elections", "politics-default"] | 0.5 | 1668034742663 | 1668790963741 | 0.89 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.44333677547153283 | UtiB14ic0p4DZooDexPM | {"NO": 898.6223813184802, "YES": 1095.1284351829902} | 0.3952265545946974 | will-polygamous-marriage-be-legal-i | 3251.03350459138 | Will polygamous marriage be legal in any US state by 2035? | 2082758340000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0.2121424321871632 | 8.495118652536366 | False | basic | public | 1667795995396 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "They must be able to get married in that state, not just have their marriage recognized from elsewhere.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.4016432241485615, "platformFee": 2.4016432241485615, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IsaacKing | 1715703634842 | 1.7 | 1 | 48 | 0 | 12 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1667795995645}] | ["us-politics"] | 0.1380654312288006 | 0.5 | 1715703631418 | 1696969786222 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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jYtQk19yZEgZyvFO4DPR | which-prediction-platform-will-be-m | 361.83388548298325 | Which prediction platform will be most accurate in forecasting the 2022 midterms? | 1667941200000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.720778288564761 | True | basic | 2d7e2958d3c9 | public | 1667796467742 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will score several prediction platforms on a set of 10 questions on the outcome of the 2022 US midterm elections. For each prediction platform, I will take the predicted probabilities on Monday evening, and compute the average ", "type": "text"},... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672606198278 | 1020.0000000000001 | jack | 1709407746452 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "0e4893137c65", "prob": 0.12321613840175084, "text": "Manifold", "index": 0, "poolNo": 14.165166697136689, "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 100.79677644500781, "textFts": "'manifold':1", "contractId": "jYtQk19yZEgZyvFO4DPR", "createdTime": 1667796467742, "probChanges": {"da... | 4 | 22 | 0.004497691854876568 | [{"name": "Election forecast comparison", "slug": "election-forecast-comparison", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "r3rY9nNBd19OEPzrowdd", "createdTime": 1667868858008}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": ... | ["us-politics", "predictions-on-predictions", "election-forecast-comparison"] | 0.08995383709753135 | 1667920854229 | 1709407746017 | {"2d7e2958d3c9": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4206995262527118 | 66MGXUmXvWIw2aLJpNlj | {"NO": 40.13081066690488, "YES": 262.29413613016} | 0.1 | the-descripion-field-on-the-market | 172.29413613016004 | The descripion field on the market creation page is collapsed and I can't type in it. Screenshot in market comments. | 1672531140000 | 0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.5247147564341215 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1667825005174 | Manifold Bugs | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if this bug is 1) recognized as valid by a member of the Manifold core team, and 2) fixed in a week. Resolves No if this is a bug and we don't fix it, and N/A if this isn't recognized as a valid bug. Filed from https://discord.com/chan... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1680886920533 | 90 | ManifoldBugs | 1680888258603 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 4 | [{"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "userId": "0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1667825005429}] | ["bugs"] | 0.5 | 1671141946163 | 1680888255420 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7631665495676369 | 8M0cEYu9xYTJCozNZGe2 | {"NO": 12117.60582251601, "YES": 412.2341562254436} | 1 | will-ftx-suspend-withdrawals-for-mo | 24422.025135157764 | Will FTX suspend withdrawals for more than a 7 day period in 2022? | 1669831380152 | tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9278284083653889 | True | basic | YES | public | 1667827822657 | FRC | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if FTX suspends user withdrawals for more than 7 days during 2022. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1589607443344265216"}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1669831380152 | 1250 | FRCassarino | 1669831381997 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjb-7zU9ioj6KVjeqE5PItJsQaNuzMZm25pjZP9lA=s96-c | 64 | 0 | 54 | [{"name": "FTX Liquidity Crisis (Nov 2022)", "slug": "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "userId": "U0HGS0lz7CTVT7UWDBE5T3VSl7u1", "groupId": "DwXE6sNMFQ8hnEq1afHh", "createdTime": 1668025593198}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZ... | ["ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1669771768438 | 1669831376519 | 0.9895530396867883 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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is fixed within a week | 1667828024296 | 0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.3944491546724365 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1667827961170 | Manifold Bugs | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if this bug is 1) recognized as valid by a member of the Manifold core team, and 2) fixed in a week. Resolves No if this is a bug and we don't fix it, and N/A if this isn't recognized as a valid bug. Filed from https://discord.com/chan... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667828024296 | 50 | ManifoldBugs | 1667828097952 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | [{"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "userId": "0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1667827961455}] | ["bugs"] | 0.5 | 1667828095830 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5826419722442747 | ckW33mqy3uKq7Hx28i7w | {"NO": 1956.3513288823335, "YES": 613.6798484535875} | 0.816526860280453 | will-manifold-ever-stop-misresolvin | 1706.971873356491 | Will Manifold ever stop misresolving their own markets? | 1767225540000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.888855641317436 | False | basic | public | 1667828212758 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Manifold\" refers to any accounts associated with Manifold Markets, such as @ManifoldMarkets and @ManifoldBugs, along with any Manifold employee accounts who publically present themselves as representatives of Manifold in some capacity. (Such as ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.07389559316914218} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.77622784550491, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IsaacKing | 1718610108368 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "Meta-markets on improper resolution", "slug": "metamarkets-on-improper-resolution", "userId": "CrQD7VbNqgbU6cjenSs1H5fdgEa2", "groupId": "jwv3Gi8dUGyA7coNlK2g", "createdTime": 1669043781640}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "lnLC8qEiz0aJXDRRkYRXEPaxKpM2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf... | ["metamarkets-on-improper-resolution", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1718610105320 | 1718529056020 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24690477440846564 | EljyCZLkiUgrPZ6nRBKc | {"NO": 154.56835237651745, "YES": 289.7566489248295} | 0 | will-democrats-find-any-cases-of-el | 158.09565835518208 | Will Democrats find any cases of election fraud in their Midterm elections? | 1669870740000 | wBZSAA3MrnWjz7eHrKAq43OXBtA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.4016547898336613 | True | play | NO | public | 1667829410975 | Trent Yazzo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Now that we've been conditioned to think that there is absolutely no or very limited voter fraud (which is always caught and prosecuted), will Democrats find actual cases of massive voter fraud in their own elections? Resolves yes if at least one c... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670332286646 | 190 | kazoo | 1668040476424 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 11 | [{"name": "US Midterm Elections", "slug": "us-midterm-elections", "userId": "wBZSAA3MrnWjz7eHrKAq43OXBtA2", "groupId": "phdax3hPOitlyRc4oWM4", "createdTime": 1667829512166}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "wBZSAA3MrnWjz7eHrKAq43OXBtA2", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTi... | ["us-2022-midterms", "us-politics", "us-2022-elections", "us-midterm-elections", "politics-default"] | 0.5 | 1668040476233 | 1667829450119 | 0.14885700890757975 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.25715176442920323 | KJnuSifh7ctWRsnTWAtJ | {"NO": 2090.92401105472, "YES": 15589.607486523886} | 0.04436929977327481 | will-the-federal-reserve-engineer-a | 31204.326972960615 | Will the Federal Reserve engineer a soft landing? | 1721098740000 | H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1 | cpmm-1 | 0.004979734840356662 | 7.403567730954949 | False | basic | public | 1667829713454 | MP | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will settle to YES if the June 2024 readings of Core PCE Inflation and Unemployment (defined by the BLS) read as the following:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content... | BINARY | {"day": 6.938893903907228e-18, "week": 0.00021098132193946711, "month": -0.0005234220826636424} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 88.13256530219626, "platformFee": 35.17610865914664, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 3535 | MP | 1719729427481 | 1.3 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf | 6 | 92 | 2 | 25 | [{"name": "Finance", "slug": "finance", "userId": "H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1667829760468}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1667829713849}, {"name": "Fed... | ["economics-default", "finance", "federal-reserve", "inflation", "interest-rates"] | 0.13949541272724253 | 0.5 | 1719729424301 | 1717169377793 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5995406976569422 | plcJRg9r5HOwyJmz1moE | {"NO": 677.4228852005195, "YES": 91.75937680896476} | 1 | will-subtropical-storm-nicole-make | 3275.3470322507987 | Will Subtropical Storm Nicole make landfall in Florida as a Hurricane? | 1668076363167 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.070222731209113 | True | play | YES | public | 1667831543895 | Predictor 🔥 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668076363167 | 290 | Predictor | 1668076211016 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 15 | [{"name": "Weather", "slug": "weather", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "Vw7PuCkPJlK51z43wA4k", "createdTime": 1667831544188}] | ["weather"] | 0.5 | 1668076117116 | 1668076208596 | 0.9170312680359888 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
vQXMAxORBWAbdt1nqkQV | who-will-win-the-2022-microsoft-exc | 529 | Who will win the 2022 Microsoft Excel World Championship? | 1668340781688 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.693963540077303 | True | play | 30710f720b1f | public | 1667834159693 | Predictor 🔥 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.fmworldcup.com/excel-esports/microsoft-excel-world-championship/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.fmworldcup.com/excel-esports/microsoft-excel-world-championship/", "class": "z-10 break-anywher... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668340792057 | 360 | Predictor | 1668340772986 | 0 | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "30710f720b1f", "prob": 0.9764075269426042, "text": "Andrew Ngai", "index": 0, "poolNo": 13.659814530464814, "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.3300556349541107, "textFts": "'andrew':1 'ngai':2", "contractId": "vQXMAxORBWAbdt1nqkQV", "createdTime": 1667834159693, "probChang... | 1 | 2 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1667834160155}] | ["technology-default"] | 1668340772790 | 1667834266920 | {"30710f720b1f": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3222153333969985 | CNeoIys8EAbIjRQiA3Hv | {"NO": 350.8867951999547, "YES": 331.3491314860108} | 0.33485253566991896 | should-manifold-override-the-intent | 218.69237564437552 | Should Manifold override the intentionally incorrect resolution of "Will there be a report button within 2 months"? | 1668439655745 | tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1673428423705383 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1667834855745 | FRC | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The creator of this market has purposefully resolved it incorrectly: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/stone/will-there-be-a-report-button-withi#2QdBFpsN1H1AOKpXimQ9", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668608986981 | 350 | FRCassarino | 1668611482030 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjb-7zU9ioj6KVjeqE5PItJsQaNuzMZm25pjZP9lA=s96-c | 0 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 25 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1667834856056}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1668439629452 | 1668611477222 | 0.33485253566991896 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5357609477915016 | O2AMBc2I7c3fnrndJwDu | {"NO": 8682.301222050348, "YES": 427.1326408621738} | 1 | will-the-linked-lavlunee-stock-mark | 12626.853489098125 | Will the linked Lavlunee stock market resolve correctly? | 1668070196983 | 9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.47449840903282503 | True | basic | YES | public | 1667840284550 | arae | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "5BHTNVUwOFe8uhEhB7XW", "label": "/dgg4life/lavlunee-stock-random-november"}}, {"text": " resolves YES and its probability is above 50% at the time, or if that market ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668070196983 | 1920 | a | 1668070191735 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 13 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1667927522826}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime"... | ["derivative-markets", "predictions-on-predictions", "destinygg", "insurance"] | 0.5 | 1668070189330 | 1667840467197 | 0.81 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
hEs0sEgRxbIyTIswtvoY | what-will-i-work-on-this-friday-man | 13 | What will I work on this Friday? [Manifold developer] | 1668470340000 | tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.98013067025711 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1667841024227 | FRC | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll use this market to decide what to work on this Friday. The idea is that users should vote for something they really want done, that isn't already in my immediate roadmap. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "cont... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668608974081 | 280 | FRCassarino | 1668009416276 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjb-7zU9ioj6KVjeqE5PItJsQaNuzMZm25pjZP9lA=s96-c | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3f5fa618c72a", "prob": 0.7831466833737959, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 57.694262553659705, "userId": "tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 15.975541301108372, "textFts": "", "contractId": "hEs0sEgRxbIyTIswtvoY", "createdTime": 1667841024795, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | 3 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1667841024656}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 1668009416141 | 1667841162701 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.44583621649575145 | yUS0TmdLyoKBQKQn1TfZ | {"NO": 45.218186689339674, "YES": 1190.4629960333584} | 0 | will-zvi-mowshowitz-have-a-blue-che | 1108.8776246715581 | Will Zvi Mowshowitz have a blue check by March 1, 2023? | 1677449042256 | WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2 | cpmm-1 | 2.762515866224105 | True | play | NO | public | 1667841465847 | Zvi Mowshowitz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if at any time @TheZvi has a blue check, for any reason, before 3/1/23, NO otherwise. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1677449042256 | 290 | ZviMowshowitz | 1677550805026 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c | 15 | 0 | 14 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1667841466116}] | ["personal-goals"] | 0.5 | 1677309004151 | 1677550800427 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7533268457402392 | w6JiZAevh7VSnsFfjNCd | {"NO": 255.1479206508954, "YES": 92.77325793706798} | 1 | midterm-tournament-insurance-will-a | 214 | [Midterm Tournament Insurance] Will all Midterm Tournament markets resolve accurately? If no, will Manifold fix any improperly resolved markets within one month of misresolution? | 1672549140000 | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.033984303335735 | True | play | YES | public | 1667844921841 | Charlie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The default method for classifying a market as improperly resolved is my judgement that it contradicts the Associated Press and Reuters.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\"Fix\" here means that mana will be... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672948097848 | 130 | Charlie | 1672673291228 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Insurance", "slug": "insurance", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "kqp0AgdFL7ZRDhZDOHa7", "createdTime": 1667844922052}] | ["insurance"] | 0.5 | 1669422093726 | 1672673289588 | 0.89 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5346652442642209 | yoeEwyVhYc5BHnI2XTmM | {"NO": 439.9293366967268, "YES": 315.2006457827295} | 0.6159252696726318 | if-in-2030-atmospheric-co2-is-440-p | 140.07066330327245 | IF in 2030, atmospheric CO2 is 440-445 ppm, what will be the global temperature anomaly in 2030? | 1924991940000 | TbeT2K5xMIfEcPTGxz1opJ0njKz1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1667845823173 | Abhimanyu Pallavi Sudhir | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Annual CO2 level from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/data.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/data.html", "class": "z-10 break-anywhere hover:underlin... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 370 | AbhimanyuPallaviSudhir | 1693723686602 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqeZlLV5_IdG8ip6z4QZPnaJwfGNLtlxgDJQiUTZw=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "Climate", "slug": "climate", "userId": "TbeT2K5xMIfEcPTGxz1opJ0njKz1", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw", "createdTime": 1667845823477}] | ["climate"] | 0.5 | 1693723686452 | 1672699097024 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.528937440840081 | 2Ff32mrt9HUOiLqVtunh | {"NO": 419.99999999999943, "YES": 295.16087587643324} | 0.6150555190439915 | if-in-2030-atmospheric-co2-is-43544 | 72.00000000000014 | IF in 2030, atmospheric CO2 is 435-440 ppm, what will be the global temperature anomaly in 2030? | 1924991940000 | TbeT2K5xMIfEcPTGxz1opJ0njKz1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1667845956635 | Abhimanyu Pallavi Sudhir | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Annual CO2 level from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/data.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/data.html", "class": "z-10 break-anywhere hover:underlin... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 350 | AbhimanyuPallaviSudhir | 1693723669435 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqeZlLV5_IdG8ip6z4QZPnaJwfGNLtlxgDJQiUTZw=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "Climate", "slug": "climate", "userId": "TbeT2K5xMIfEcPTGxz1opJ0njKz1", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw", "createdTime": 1667845956913}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680737087209}] | ["climate", "ancient-markets"] | 0.5 | 1693723669295 | 1667846044100 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20949208706001599 | TQcvJN7kXcqqDcp4NXhE | {"NO": 989.6105842282776, "YES": 959.29693617642} | 0.21469077167312586 | will-an-mrna-hiv-vaccine-pass-phase | 374.3740420676096 | Will an mRNA HIV vaccine pass Phase 2 trials by 2025 | 1767254340000 | 4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2 | cpmm-1 | 0.03373556248100126 | 9.667787597516469 | False | basic | public | 1667847116465 | VivaLaPanda | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Phase 1 trials are underway: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-launches-clinical-trial-three-mrna-hiv-vaccines", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nih.gov/news-ev... | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.1488072117199785, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | VivaLaPanda | 1717191656227 | 1.1 | 17 | 0 | 12 | [{"name": "Health", "slug": "health", "userId": "4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1667847116720}, {"name": "Biology", "slug": "biology", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "82OVufkY4rbpp5uizfqL", "createdTime": 1678996096585}] | ["health", "biology"] | 0.11338784077575786 | 0.5 | 1717191653068 | 1667849300892 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4148531698308647 | m1je0ZDnp8cyzR7fWfZe | {"NO": 125.14609031498786, "YES": 151.5721662265193} | 0.36923076923076914 | what-will-thekwh-price-for-battery | 173.89101228035165 | What will the $/kWh price for battery cells be at the end of 2030 | 1925020740000 | 4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1667847542707 | VivaLaPanda | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The cost of Lithium Ion battery capacity has dropped signfiicantly over time: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ourworldindata.org/... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 330 | VivaLaPanda | 1688414026608 | 1.1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1667847543012}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.10404465704218864 | 0.9769230769230769 | 1688414026477 | 1673027780408 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8081835973109281 | k21G3OiEt01XfiIHOQK4 | {"NO": 106.55705118155946, "YES": 345.3309198850664} | 0.5652330458626683 | what-will-thekwh-price-for-battery-9be2736d86b3 | 366.80572810296303 | What will the $/kWh price for battery cells be at the end of 2025 | 1767254340000 | 4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1667847587798 | VivaLaPanda | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The cost of Lithium Ion battery capacity has dropped signfiicantly over time: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ourworldindata.org/... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-16, "week": -5.551115123125783e-16, "month": -5.551115123125783e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 350 | VivaLaPanda | 1707666370817 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1667847588177}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.9769230769230769 | 1707666370674 | 1673028106677 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4119017789309971 | BSRiRNDqw6UwC687ymQA | {"NO": 248.3904909345997, "YES": 300.7718942841092} | 1 | will-someone-win-the-19-billion-pow | 177.1019330174855 | Will someone win the $1.9 billion Powerball jackpot tonight? | 1667879940000 | wBZSAA3MrnWjz7eHrKAq43OXBtA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.3094476305688123 | True | play | YES | public | 1667849380720 | Trent Yazzo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if one person or multiple people win the jackpot 11-7-2022. Do not have to come forward to claim the prize, ticket just needs to be sold.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667931995810 | 270 | kazoo | 1667931985131 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 15 | [{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "wBZSAA3MrnWjz7eHrKAq43OXBtA2", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1667849442076}, {"name": "Finance", "slug": "finance", "userId": "wBZSAA3MrnWjz7eHrKAq43OXBtA2", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1667849439286... | ["economics-default", "wall-street-bets", "finance", "entertainment", "fun"] | 0.5 | 1667876466391 | 1667931984669 | 0.3664541087333235 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.42148153349966433 | soX5KByIbdZXkMI2zmIx | {"NO": 97.19347275654263, "YES": 2463.270155748357} | 0 | will-scott-alexander-review-the-net | 2433.5265501307035 | Will Scott Alexander review The Network State by Balaji Srinivasan? | 1704085140000 | 946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2 | cpmm-1 | 3.078191837246648e-16 | 1.7465554042946223 | True | play | NO | public | 1667851102979 | JAAM | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if Scott Alexander has not posted a review of The Network State by Balaji Srinivasan (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://thenetworkstate.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://thenetworkstate.com... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704205405009 | 430 | egroj | 1704210145730 | 0.1 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 9 | [{"name": "ACX", "slug": "acx", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29", "createdTime": 1667851103268}, {"name": "Blogs", "slug": "blogs", "groupId": "924bd6a5-2849-4b46-9cea-28e21b9fe77f", "createdTime": 1697877157717}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-r... | ["acx", "blogs", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.09281898695850241 | 0.5 | 1704083048478 | 1704210145030 | 0.03 | 946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4708166951321299 | MFyKw0pjCBfGs98NXefD | {"NO": 501.61258547795626, "YES": 49.58743397796979} | 1 | will-the-brazilian-supreme-court-ou | 667.1039262221636 | Will the Brazilian Supreme Court outlaw unidentified amendments to the Federal Budget ("Secret Budget") by the end of 2022? | 1671465794408 | 90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.440709303932772 | True | play | YES | public | 1667851590901 | Bernardo Chrispim Baron | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.brasildefato.com.br/2022/10/07/understand-why-the-so-called-secret-budget-is-related-to-illegality-and-corruption", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.brasild... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671465794408 | 170 | BernardoChrispimBaron | 1671466602414 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0YTALNHIfZHMGUhLCzX8YOJ9J-b-6RyfwHbeEd=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1668282752611}, {"name": "LatAm & Caribbean", "slug": "latam-caribbean", "userId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "groupId": "9Gafi93SU4eHXKhWCWj6", "createdTime": 1668282749835... | ["brazil-3292d24d179f", "latam-caribbean", "politics-default", "supremo-tribunal-federal"] | 0.5 | 1671460801021 | 1671466598467 | 0.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5020856461178981 | Uth4goNWyrwAEnzbbSbe | {"NO": 518.0801122486511, "YES": 541.297986226981} | 0.12 | this-market-will-resolve-to-a-rando | 304.760721249192 | This market will resolve to a random percentage (predetermined). | 1699311540000 | sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2 | cpmm-1 | 7.010100941854671e-16 | 0.6303847829703615 | True | play | MKT | public | 1667853008985 | howtodowtle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I predetermined the percentage that this market will resolve to using a random number generator.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The result is stored here and will be visible on 7 Nov 2023: ", "type": "tex... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1699634583386 | 530 | howtodowtle | 1700852397864 | 0.1 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1670153753305}, {"name": "randomization", "slug": "randomization", "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "groupId": "YOkz3UZsh7MkxtA4ANBZ", "createdTime": 1670153750343}, {"n... | ["fun", "randomization", "fairlyrandom", "experimental"] | 0.09426102006155095 | 0.5 | 1699310648080 | 1700852397114 | 0.12 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.7278283077187752 | FxrzkOIBMp7SFxEP7JXw | {"NO": 1415.61735510551, "YES": 27.256999529285093} | 1 | will-jako-publish-a-mainchannel-vid | 2726.267875383127 | Will Jako publish a main-channel video before the 31st of December 2022? | 1672336220000 | XnWIxExQE7dlzNL2NybkmAXvJo53 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.755275553565305 | True | play | YES | public | 1667854278867 | Jako | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672336220000 | 110 | Brunching | 1672336203717 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 0.5 | 1672336203609 | 1667854414915 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.27547557603891193 | cc2MnV9iPiyO7Ng8n6Vy | {"NO": 1972.030816258283, "YES": 72.9876371614239} | 1 | will-twitter-ban-elonjet-the-accoun | 7787.976475202926 | Will Twitter ban @Elonjet the account that monitors Elon Musk's plane before the end of 2023? | 1671027788847 | B5BbCJcEHBhPusNyQE2BR6dgR6Y2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.3705929696088228 | True | play | YES | public | 1667854282505 | Tim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Elon Musk has publicly stated how much he dislikes the twitter account that tracks the movement's of his private jet and previously offered $5,000 to its owner to delete it. He's described it as \"a direct personal safety risk\" but said his commit... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671027788847 | 910 | timtumbles | 1710451936619 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 0 | 40 | [{"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}] | ["twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.5 | 1671027704559 | 1671052856534 | 0.91 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7993404600565279 | A3vxDXbmvZUqWeutgfkR | {"NO": 14548.5963668671, "YES": 49.87992048644628} | 1 | will-arm-experience-a-liquidity-eve | 14914.657640884841 | Will ARM experience a liquidity event in 2023 | 1696546516872 | 4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.6981849745899025 | True | play | YES | public | 1667854627873 | VivaLaPanda | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "ARM is hoping to IPO in 2023, but market conditions may stall that: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/best-destination-for-softbanks-arm-ipo-is-nowhere", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1696546516872 | 250 | VivaLaPanda | 1696542908393 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1667854629947}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.5 | 1696542906954 | 1667854656220 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2548364812787297 | rJS480sYFFKY1CQRrlrt | {"NO": 336.9625046307003, "YES": 491.27312924870915} | 0.05 | predict-metaculus-us-const-conventi | 329.9933012787529 | Predict Metaculus: U.S. Const. Convention called before 2028 | 1668056400000 | 4w7ZYpvZ3OfE0A8fuWttBVZWvRR2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2684149094578954 | True | play | MKT | public | 1667854632868 | Johnny Ten-Numbers | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The following Metaculus question is set to open in three days: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13449/us-const-convention-called-before-2028/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://w... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668638510898 | 380 | 1941159478 | 1710462518843 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 13 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "Meta-Forecasting", "slug": "metaforecasting", "groupId": "aWVjDvevw8dDKKbURvgx"}, {"name": "Short fuse", "slug": "short-fuse", "grou... | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "metaforecasting", "short-fuse", "reciprocal-scoring"] | 0.5 | 1668055083336 | 1667859073931 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.41149009854130025 | nh8OaAtfV9yTJe4z8fqj | {"NO": 99.4690398369453, "YES": 367.1748352321907} | 0 | will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-aca1e2156ca4 | 1309.5654619345223 | Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $4.00 on November 8, 2022? | 1667937600000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.1002384857080005 | True | play | NO | public | 1667855071917 | Predictor 🔥 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock ma... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667941248559 | 190 | Predictor | 1667942416575 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 11 | [{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1667855072184}] | ["wall-street-bets"] | 0.5 | 1667934001070 | 1667942415193 | 0.1592524871583221 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07562543270603096 | QfzdjXH9kzHUWEMPTbhb | {"NO": 912.632421081536, "YES": 2019.1243015311516} | 0.03566012384683782 | will-trump-be-disqualified-from-the | 3777.6683500615327 | Will Trump be disqualified from the presidency on insurrection grounds | 1730869140000 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.51971956790781 | False | basic | public | 1667856997570 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES iff ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this challenge", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-candidacy-14th-amendment-insurrection-disqualification-crew_n_63688d0ce4b08f849aaca63... | BINARY | {"day": -6.938893903907228e-18, "week": -6.938893903907228e-18, "month": -6.938893903907228e-18} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.26235249354336615, "platformFee": 0.13366931088407438, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1716726932669 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 19 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "🐘 Republican Party", "slug": "magaland", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb"}, {"name": "Law & Or... | ["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "magaland", "law-order", "olivia"] | 0.5 | 1716726929102 | 1667857297776 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7825059444155809 | oHQLHCprCBDfEGU1njYI | {"NO": 3604.0232457011043, "YES": 272.8826788519777} | 1 | will-volodymyr-zelenskyy-be-the-202 | 5303.1879425211555 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the 2022 TIME Person of the Year? | 1670425850894 | w2cCkAnKP0TcjIoQKSTp4nMV5G32 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.4705179767788024 | True | play | YES | public | 1667859235413 | Gustav | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy is named as TIME's Person of the Year for 2022, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No\".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670425904305 | 530 | Gustav | 1670420587366 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3GZv_-CMXczXLvdE3ElQwxwrpuvR94R3_0EqxSOQ=s96-c | 25 | 0 | 26 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "w2cCkAnKP0TcjIoQKSTp4nMV5G32", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1667859235755}, {"name": "TIME Person of the Year", "slug": "time-person-of-the-year", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "RCfwD1s4qIECOtPgrtmi", "createdTime": 16695... | ["world-default", "time-person-of-the-year"] | 0.5 | 1670420587247 | 1670420331291 | 0.9793888005444713 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49660666771503154 | PNd2xKUOT01kzcvS5UM1 | {"NO": 53.80630553816544, "YES": 53.806305538165425} | 1 | will-dry-hotpot-be-good | 20.030997555519566 | Will dry hotpot be good? | 1667872310295 | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.201407075503803 | True | play | YES | public | 1667863794940 | Charlie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We will be using ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Fire Hot Pot Base | Fly By Jing", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://flybyjing.com/shop/fire-hot-pot-base/", "class": "z-10 break-anywhere hove... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667872310295 | 70 | Charlie | 1667870940672 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 2 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1667863806569}, {"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1667864693367}] | ["personal-goals", "fun"] | 0.5 | 1667870940485 | 1667867355672 | 0.49660666771503176 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.330065384014246 | 60ExtIJzcXeWEwpT1ssI | {"NO": 33.73403320637232, "YES": 2200.932604702811} | 0 | will-mbs-visit-pakistan-by-the-end | 4296.347337439623 | Will MBS visit Pakistan by the end of 2022? | 1672538140949 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.239273196783376 | True | play | NO | public | 1667867922004 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Prince is tentatively scheduled to visit Pakistan in late-November, but the uncertain political climate in Pakistan has made things a bit more complicated. Resolves YES if MBS visits by the end of 2022. NO if not. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type":... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672538140949 | 190 | BTE | 1672538134027 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "MBS", "slug": "mbs", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "44tFNTiGdasU0INGAQhf", "createdTime": 1669114644160}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1667867922254}, {"name": "Prime Millenn... | ["global-macro", "mbs", "prime-millennial"] | 0.5 | 1672538133871 | 1667867985462 | 0.07 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6939256946315284 | 1DZZ4dAaxbbOwyUt48NO | {"NO": 259.2312703220249, "YES": 24.488503305303606} | 1 | will-georges-seurats-painting-les-p | 309.01822788227827 | Will Georges Seurat's painting 'Les Poseuses' (1888) fetch more than $100mm at auction November 9th? | 1668046833122 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.7826120280061 | True | play | YES | public | 1667869459445 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fw0w_cOGokw.56?alt=media&token=c35edc0e-3119-4f1d-b014-163c5e7ad221", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "GEORGES SEURAT (... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668046833122 | 70 | BTE | 1668046829342 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Art Dealer", "slug": "art-dealer", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "Xj7qMWnWg7aTsuoKgerd", "createdTime": 1667869459674}] | ["art-dealer"] | 0.5 | 1668040354613 | 1668046827453 | 0.9600000000000003 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4997448253569678 | YwGWzuWzkX7UY5JNoLYU | {"NO": 56.371284922575455, "YES": 45.13082820203815} | 1 | will-an-undisclosed-person-vote-yes-208c243de821 | 125.58287097234316 | Will an undisclosed person vote "yes" on this market? [repeat] | 1667870131942 | x4Md3ynwwyWjoGOYlkJvcO9vqQT2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.376536981366353 | True | play | YES | public | 1667869821294 | pancakes ♠︎ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[repeat because i didn't set the proper date oops]", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MARKET:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The person will be rerolled from last... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667870131942 | 130 | cece | 1687208211826 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "Proofniks", "slug": "proofniks", "userId": "x4Md3ynwwyWjoGOYlkJvcO9vqQT2", "groupId": "HWg8Z5SraHRjoEjHCcIJ", "createdTime": 1667869821547}] | ["proofniks"] | 0.5 | 1667870132031 | 1687208208795 | 0.5580525420061454 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
F3MhhT3If9WsfCPFzp1S | how-far-off-will-different-predicti | 85 | How far off will different prediction platforms be in forecasting the 2022 midterms? | 1667941200000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.853776548250242 | True | play | MKT | public | 1667869833879 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will score several prediction platforms on a set of 10 questions on the outcome of the 2022 US midterm elections. For each prediction platform, I will take the predicted probabilities on Monday evening, and compute the average ", "type": "text"},... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672982980798 | 520 | jack | 1672983094786 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "d857d2ec6462", "prob": 0.18187206511530832, "text": "Manifold", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15.190148914659165, "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 68.33091796841873, "textFts": "'manifold':1", "contractId": "F3MhhT3If9WsfCPFzp1S", "createdTime": 1667869833879, "probChanges": {"day... | 4 | 5 | [{"name": "Election forecast comparison", "slug": "election-forecast-comparison", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "r3rY9nNBd19OEPzrowdd", "createdTime": 1667869834132}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": ... | ["election-forecast-comparison", "predictions-on-predictions", "us-politics"] | 1667920866146 | 1672983091952 | False | {"0ef529824aa4": 15.142133408387279, "1126d3605a06": 12.496481846327047, "646cc3bded24": 15.367295243456233, "6e1166091172": 11.736560652969322, "795c520c40cd": 17.16858992400788, "abbcdf878cd5": 14.607374050098509, "d857d2ec6462": 13.48156487475373} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5448731957823663 | rpeLORwng1c9cgrUTMZf | {"NO": 255.34611131335816, "YES": 234.86584790148424} | 0.5655167353933882 | will-an-undisclosed-person-vote-yes-ff65d47df7ce | 511.8169438670037 | Will an undisclosed person vote "yes" on this market? [repeat x2] | 1672559940000 | x4Md3ynwwyWjoGOYlkJvcO9vqQT2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9470357991133599 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1667870447176 | pancakes ♠︎ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[repeat because it ended in like five minutes]", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LOG (of people who have been rolled thus far) (where higher number = more recent):", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs":... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672562795019 | 250 | cece | 1672562792151 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "Proofniks", "slug": "proofniks", "userId": "x4Md3ynwwyWjoGOYlkJvcO9vqQT2", "groupId": "HWg8Z5SraHRjoEjHCcIJ", "createdTime": 1667870447472}] | ["proofniks"] | 0.5 | 1672556377636 | 1672562790238 | 0.57 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3406020509010901 | YF97wlaRcvMWNQ8upd1h | {"NO": 332.58073163007475, "YES": 4114.9228101915305} | 0 | will-manifold-beat-538-on-midterms | 5102.70677872144 | Will Manifold beat 538 on midterms predictions? | 1671080340000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.808242235608676 | True | play | NO | public | 1667870766468 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will score several prediction platforms on a set of 10 questions on the outcome of the 2022 US midterm elections. For each prediction platform, I will take the predicted probabilities on Monday evening, and compute the average log score (a measur... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672606400382 | 950 | jack | 1672607259702 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 4 | 27 | [{"name": "Election forecast comparison", "slug": "election-forecast-comparison", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "r3rY9nNBd19OEPzrowdd", "createdTime": 1667870766913}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": ... | ["election-forecast-comparison", "predictions-on-predictions"] | 0.5 | 1671046821033 | 1672606399029 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7741002558373301 | FQK6biBszcxVwxGDPRaQ | {"NO": 4227.728471415504, "YES": 312.1623666388027} | 1 | will-manifold-beat-predictit-on-mid | 5187.51238580415 | Will Manifold beat PredictIt on midterms predictions? | 1671080340000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2603649391330123 | True | play | YES | public | 1667870892902 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will score several prediction platforms on a set of 10 questions on the outcome of the 2022 US midterm elections. For each prediction platform, I will take the predicted probabilities on Monday evening, and compute the average log score (a measur... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672606325564 | 670 | jack | 1672606323209 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 4 | 31 | [{"name": "Election forecast comparison", "slug": "election-forecast-comparison", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "r3rY9nNBd19OEPzrowdd", "createdTime": 1667870893143}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": ... | ["election-forecast-comparison", "predictions-on-predictions"] | 0.5 | 1671046798464 | 1672606302731 | 0.98 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6786017276060169 | hXkqpbwwEMza0u6MXBde | {"NO": 5481.030142770817, "YES": 259.11145217315857} | 1 | will-538-beat-polymarket-on-midterm | 10684.303840056526 | Will 538 beat Polymarket on midterms predictions? | 1671080340000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.0421265475974155 | True | play | YES | public | 1667871140706 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will score several prediction platforms on a set of 10 questions on the outcome of the 2022 US midterm elections. For each prediction platform, I will take the predicted probabilities on Monday evening, and compute the average log score (a measur... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672606275996 | 870 | jack | 1672607028676 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 4 | 24 | [{"name": "Election forecast comparison", "slug": "election-forecast-comparison", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "r3rY9nNBd19OEPzrowdd", "createdTime": 1667871140941}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": ... | ["election-forecast-comparison", "predictions-on-predictions", "us-politics"] | 0.5 | 1671046702946 | 1672606271320 | False | 0.98 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.542112230003218 | nsZe5BIHe6i0uakEbgzY | {"NO": 387.9042900933581, "YES": 318.8947541277734} | 1 | will-an-undisclosed-person-bet-an-o | 353.1526152728485 | Will an undisclosed person bet an odd total amount on this market? | 1668499140000 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.0187757016939116 | True | play | YES | public | 1667872820344 | Conflux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll pick a random person from the \"top creators\" tab in the Proofniks group (similar to Connor's methodology on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/ConnorHuh/will-an-undisclosed-person-vote-yes-ff65d47df7ce", "type": "text", "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668523861970 | 350 | Conflux | 1668523879177 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 18 | [{"name": "Proofniks", "slug": "proofniks", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "HWg8Z5SraHRjoEjHCcIJ", "createdTime": 1667872820619}, {"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1667872876701}] | ["proofniks", "fun"] | 0.5 | 1668499111650 | 1668523876828 | 0.5901889273035245 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.38518067830389846 | NmynNIuJCZN3H2csmkkr | {"NO": 391.833508503692, "YES": 13.626588256057996} | 1 | will-north-korea-test-a-hwasong17-i | 1471.7489865091504 | Will North Korea test a Hwasong-17 ICBM before they test a nuclear weapon? | 1670076316658 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.039743674508718 | True | play | YES | public | 1667874689764 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if North Korea test launches a Hwasong-17 ICBM. Resolves NO if North Korea conducts a nuclear weapon test. Resolves N/A if neither happens by end of 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670076316658 | 110 | jack | 1670076301287 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "North Korea", "slug": "north-korea", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "5aafMiQ5NeYij6TE1G1i", "createdTime": 1667874690015}, {"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1670076340422}] | ["north-korea", "nuclear-risk"] | 0.5 | 1669742009213 | 1670076298081 | 0.9474096136131507 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4590415633900251 | CyXAnAPxWgb8qgenjhAE | {"NO": 48.04691497209447, "YES": 412.24225209933127} | 0 | will-geometry-dash-22-release-befor | 410.79275457567894 | Will Geometry Dash 2.2 release before 2023? | 1672629682651 | vPuZEsvT9VSFFke5h5TQaEkHWdo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8530083587951918 | True | play | NO | public | 1667878359924 | cc6 ♠︎ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Geometry Dash is a popular mobile/PC game that I'm sure many of you have heard of. However, it has not recieved an update in 5 years. Currently the game is on update 2.11, and rumors state that 2.2 is going to be released soon. However, RobTop, the... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672629682651 | 130 | cc6 | 1672174460078 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "vPuZEsvT9VSFFke5h5TQaEkHWdo2", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1667878621330}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "vPuZEsvT9VSFFke5h5TQaEkHWdo2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1667878360229}, {"name": "Vid... | ["technology-default", "gaming", "video-games"] | 0.5 | 1672174459941 | 1667878477666 | 0.09 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4765144772250363 | tch32ZFutgWKrH7RX6rP | {"NO": 111.45943562831299, "YES": 1025.8577569527192} | 0.05 | is-yitang-zhangs-preprint-on-landau | 1713.2839981665202 | How correct is Yitang Zhang's preprint on Landau-Siegel zeros? | 1704085140000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5215539041670165 | True | play | MKT | public | 1667878834118 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves on a scale of 0% to 100% where 0% is \"no new ideas\" and 100% is \"essentially proved the theorem as stated\". Resolves when the mathematical community has formed a consensus or at the end of 2023, whichever is earlier. Resolution will be... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1706492409602 | 370 | jack | 1706492409863 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 6 | 15 | [{"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1667878834539}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703132492610}] | ["mathematics", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1703683967289 | 1706492341288 | 0.05 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 |
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