p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.27656233846598666 | vQPRCep8OG8Kuu6nRQgU | {"NO": 144.1826822927147, "YES": 323.23873033053053} | 0.14568065162713906 | the-bug-the-cursor-displays-rotated | 290.58856510496116 | The bug: The cursor displays rotated by 90 degrees when it's right in front of an image in a comment
is fixed within a week | 1668556740000 | 0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.277532558098942 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1667881586402 | Manifold Bugs | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if this bug is 1) recognized as valid by a member of the Manifold core team, and 2) fixed in a week. Resolves No if this is a bug and we don't fix it, and N/A if this isn't recognized as a valid bug. Filed from https://discord.com/chan... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1669148965442 | 190 | ManifoldBugs | 1668556726473 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 10 | [{"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "userId": "0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1667881586665}] | ["bugs"] | 0.5 | 1668556726322 | 1668551974505 | 0.14568065162713903 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18834619316328635 | Sdh6X8nhjULSPJ4hoyZf | {"NO": 1138.413991597713, "YES": 37335.39299936109} | 0 | will-twitter-be-put-behind-a-paywal | 61872.07135297225 | Will Twitter be put behind a paywall by Jul 2023? | 1688180340000 | H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.450320581891674 | True | basic | NO | public | 1667881933660 | MP | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you're required to pay to use Twitter as it currently exists (even if you have some free time), this market will be solved to YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I won't bet.", "type": "te... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1688191797254 | 2280 | MP | 1710451923518 | 0.9 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf | 0 | 172 | 0 | 1 | 49 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej"}, {"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "🌐 Internet", "slug": "internet", "grou... | ["technology-default", "twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "internet"] | 0.15025271942899623 | 0.5 | 1688176038936 | 1688283111227 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.254928693726997 | oWwHKswbItkRgxwe4b3R | {"NO": 110.56778379230657, "YES": 151.32458036242653} | 0.19999999999999976 | bond-auction-at-what-interest-rate | 300.6989936833736 | Bond Auction: at what interest rate will I get a M$10k loan until EoY? | 1668488340000 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.207797020061014 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1667882958755 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market has a twist. If you bet LOWER, you commit to potentially making a loan at that interest rate.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At market close, the lowest bidder will make a market.... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668926980240 | 130 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1710462517064 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 10 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ"}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4"}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz"}, {"name": "Short fuse", "slug": "short-fuse", "groupId": "a2ab3b95-588a-4e45-a855-51... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "fun", "olivia", "short-fuse"] | 0.5 | 1668488320107 | 1668926966655 | 0.19999999999999976 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4054537073947043 | RgWOhSMHwOE6Opp3B4Xp | {"NO": 114.91821021842065, "YES": 294.81681536543374} | 0 | will-i-win-at-least-9-out-of-10-gam | 505.8105365324995 | Will I win at least 9 out of 10 games of online Boggle against @Conflux? | 1668305066428 | 1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.019103800120525 | True | play | NO | public | 1667883492831 | Joshua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I think that I can trounce him in Boggle. He disagrees. So, naturally we need a market for this! If he so desires ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "label": "Conflux"}}, {"text": " may make an o... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668305066428 | 170 | JoshuaB | 1668303251896 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "Proofniks", "slug": "proofniks", "userId": "1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2", "groupId": "HWg8Z5SraHRjoEjHCcIJ", "createdTime": 1667883493133}, {"name": "Word Games", "slug": "word-games", "userId": "1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2", "groupId": "8ZBnMxbLcypAOH3mWIqF", "createdTime": 1672515875235}] | ["proofniks", "word-games"] | 0.5 | 1668303251785 | 1667883842960 | 0.20999999999999988 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.502882054438325 | DvIouMYgHkaFXnomhbkt | {"NO": 1630.0529810890355, "YES": 15.219539331000078} | 1 | will-i-win-at-least-7-out-of-10-gam | 2755.0277839012097 | Will I win at least 7 out of 10 games of online Boggle against @Conflux and one other Proofnik of his choice? | 1686095206413 | 1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.190386495287928 | True | play | YES | public | 1667883513124 | Joshua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Same settings and conditions as this ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "market", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/JoshuaB/will-i-win-at-least-9-out-of-10-gam", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1686095206413 | 170 | JoshuaB | 1686095305961 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "Proofniks", "slug": "proofniks", "userId": "1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2", "groupId": "HWg8Z5SraHRjoEjHCcIJ", "createdTime": 1667883513402}, {"name": "Word Games", "slug": "word-games", "userId": "1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2", "groupId": "8ZBnMxbLcypAOH3mWIqF", "createdTime": 1672515915685}] | ["proofniks", "word-games"] | 0.5 | 1686095184739 | 1686095302549 | 0.94 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4159392409434801 | PxHqZpWG3v7Jxee4gXpP | {"NO": 96.61151259199457, "YES": 127.7750502300423} | 0 | will-i-win-an-outright-majority-of | 425.43196778392235 | Will I win an outright majority of Boggle games in my match against @JoshuaB? | 1668307493949 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9897724053419781 | True | play | NO | public | 1667884377754 | Conflux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the match described in the embedded market, will I win not only 2 of the 10 games but at least 6, an outright majority?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet NO on this market and... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668307493949 | 110 | Conflux | 1668311225379 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "Proofniks", "slug": "proofniks", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "HWg8Z5SraHRjoEjHCcIJ", "createdTime": 1667884381962}, {"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1667884378031}, {"name"... | ["personal-goals", "proofniks", "word-games"] | 0.5 | 1668303212610 | 1668311223586 | 0.3499999999999999 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.33162441781078184 | iW1wkXI0EgLbQjVjXkIp | {"NO": 3.3734079235291574, "YES": 20654} | 0 | will-anthony-amore-win-the-massachu | 20584 | Will Anthony Amore win the Massachusetts Auditor Election? | 1668010229238 | H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.1928985728459995 | True | play | NO | public | 1667885189995 | Andrew G | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to \"YES\" if Anthony Amore is elected Massachusetts State Auditor.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668010229238 | 70 | AndrewG | 1668010219736 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1667885190301}, {"name": "Massachusetts", "slug": "massachusetts", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "mePh8oR7NzDVkqJZk8c7", "createdTime": 16786671486... | ["us-2022-midterms", "massachusetts"] | 0.5 | 1668010219568 | 1667885272288 | 0.05062497664600496 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
dyhiSYcJYP2Z7iuOt3xW | help-me-find-a-shorter-username-for | 192 | Help me find a shorter username for websites that have character limits | 1672549140000 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.772927507871628 | True | play | MKT | public | 1667887257924 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will award 80% of the mana to any answer that I end up actually using. I will award 20% of the mana to any answer I don't select, but that I like", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will only ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672555188563 | 560.0000000000001 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1710462509633 | 0 | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "9c7a09b92577", "prob": 0.11728279226871834, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.135032701725351, "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 23.595510126265683, "textFts": "", "contractId": "dyhiSYcJYP2Z7iuOt3xW", "createdTime": 1667887258548, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4"}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz"}, {"name": "Bounty markets", "slug": "bounty-markets", "groupId": "yogJV7GSfqfUB8rOsXhF"}, {"name": "Recommendations", "slug": "recommendations", "groupId": "IU4YOTQH1dK1S5gcRO1V... | ["fun", "olivia", "bounty-markets", "recommendations", "short-fuse"] | 1670187149772 | 1668054311440 | {"2f9b556bdb2a": 15, "761fcf6cf4f2": 3, "7bb4453153ae": 2, "effe8377a372": 80} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | wUHTSF8SIdkY9GT3Hw8b | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | 0.5 | will-ftx-get-an-emergency-liquidity | 0 | Will FTX get an emergency liquidity injection? | 1667894036043 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.3944491546724365 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1667894027759 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From any source, on any terms (excl. its affiliates aka Alameda)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1589873778863255552"}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667894036043 | 50 | Gigacasting | 1667894081113 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | [{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1667894028075}, {"name": "FTX Liquidity Crunch (Nov 2022)", "slug": "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "DwXE6sNMFQ8hnEq... | ["crypto-speculation", "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022"] | 0.5 | 1667894077240 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3143796519354509 | V9bw7v9DCdbkq4iuOvfM | {"NO": 67.75745678091596, "YES": 2290.3737363197765} | 0 | will-bte-be-the-top-creator-on-mani | 5834.507480090159 | Will @BTE be the top creator on Manifold at the end of 2022? | 1672537997925 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9460557953454076 | True | play | NO | public | 1667895187342 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I just checked the leaderboard and was shocked to see that I am now the top creator! Will I still be at the end of 2022? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-marke... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672537997925 | 270 | BTE | 1672537988743 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1667895187552}, {"name": "Mana Seeds Experiment", "slug": "mana-seeds-experiment", "userId": "wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2", "groupId": "ezH8vzlbGZr8W... | ["predictions-on-predictions", "mana-seeds-experiment", "bte-resolved-questions"] | 0.5 | 1672537985993 | 1668306574796 | False | 0.07 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20335316014471527 | 7oI2a1wjQyJ18fZYnWgt | {"NO": 239.01846419946048, "YES": 3775.2309372043883} | 0 | will-lex-fridman-create-a-market-on | 6713.506785066136 | Will Lex Fridman create a market on Manifold by the end of 2022? | 1672544801565 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.7515697530094751 | True | play | NO | public | 1667896233401 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if confirmed that Lex Fridman created a market on Manifold by end of the year. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672544801565 | 470 | BTE | 1672544793481 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 17 | [{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1667896233859}, {"name": "Mana Seeds Experiment", "slug": "mana-seeds-experiment", "userId": "wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2", "groupId": "ezH8vzlbGZr8W... | ["predictions-on-predictions", "mana-seeds-experiment"] | 0.5 | 1672544793328 | 1667909226483 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6790336979586262 | Cs6UiYoa3NJYuNYm4NsW | {"NO": 1078.9272609638836, "YES": 957.6507912540746} | 0.7044488846621744 | will-a-vr-video-game-make-the-wikip | 347.7448175507765 | Will a VR video game make the Wikipedia "best of all time" list by 2030? | 1924977600000 | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | cpmm-1 | 0.040223763192592604 | 9.586272480693264 | False | basic | public | 1667896573860 | Carson Gale | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves positively if a video game that was primarily designed for play in virtual reality is added to the list shown in the Wikipedia link below by 2030. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"T... | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.40916649318906956, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | CarsonGale | 1717130867564 | 1.1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Virtual Reality", "slug": "virtual-reality", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "tHkKwsHjd8vhks1CL5oF", "createdTime": 1669870829050}, {"name": "Metaverse", "slug": "metaverse", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "8Kkb6qpko5pIhN4UEbhS", "createdTime": 1667896574104}, {"nam... | ["metaverse", "virtual-reality", "carsons-important-markets"] | 0.10933674075499888 | 0.5 | 1717130864076 | 1667896649231 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.8039986730677934 | 19kjsuODRQnRikr2Z3Vm | {"NO": 273.0000000000003, "YES": 102.80160725865916} | 1 | a-democrat-wins-the-2022-race-for-h | 143 | A Democrat wins the 2022 race for House in OR-6 (Andrea Salinas vs Mike Erickson) | 1668254340000 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.854634845270197 | True | play | YES | public | 1667974730076 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This race is currently a tossup on NYT, with an estimate of D+2.8 at time of creation. Part of a series of markets.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-11-10 6:59 am", "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668539704617 | 130 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1668539712733 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1667974839789}, {"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 166... | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "us-2022-midterms", "us-2022-elections", "olivia"] | 0.65 | 1668134921014 | 1668539706942 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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