CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

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{"NO": 1243.0727606741898, "YES": 917.9833085527948}

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will-someone-have-a-chip-implanted

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Will someone have a chip implanted in their head that can access the internet at 16KB/s before Elon Musk dies

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James

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Will Russia shoot down an F-16 over Ukraine before the end of 2025?

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The Official

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Grok & Tesla: what will be true by 2025?

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Simone Romeo

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What will happen first

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For TON Tact Challenge 2, what will happen?

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Ender Ting

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ONLY_CREATOR

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will-the-black-wildebeest-aka-white

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Will the Black Wildebeest, a.k.a. White-tailed Gnu (Connochaetes gnou) become extinct in the current century?

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Extinction Risk

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Will a human land on mars before ASI is achieved

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Will the Common Wildebeest, a.k.a. Blue Wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) become extinct in the current century?

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Extinction Risk

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will-both-donald-trump-and-joe-bide-40ffd05b07a9

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Will both Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the final candidate of their party for the president of the United States(2024)?

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when-would-ai-first-get-a-gold-meda

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Will April 2024 be hotter than April 2023 (Global)?

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Will April 2024 be hotter in the U.S. (United States) than April 2022?

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Will "The 99% principle for personal problems" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

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Less Wrong

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Will a containership enter the inner Port of Baltimore by June? (i.e. Francis Scott Key bridge debris removed?)

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lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1711646073931

Bjorn

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brp

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0

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which-robotic-companies-will-releas

3153.0602738552598

Which robotic companies will release a new YouTube Video by the end of April?

1714600740000

ChkIUvDGJqPjAcsjRqLdvzWfeyw1

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

MKT

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1711646539323

Simone Romeo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only humanoid bots videos count. Official YouTube pages:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Figure page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtube.com/@figureai?si=RmiwQaL65WCujCrW"...

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SimoneRomeo

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will-usa-and-china-be-at-war-in-the

2473.892389218365

Will USA and China be at war in the following years? (Pick all that apply)

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cpmm-multi-1

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will-the-sfoakland-bay-bridge-recei

82.93527365490334

Will the SF-Oakland Bay Bridge receive additional physical protection due to the FSK Bridge collapse?

1862024340000

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cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

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1711647396391

Yona

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who-will-have-a-higher-market-cap-a

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Who will have a higher market cap at the end of 2024 J&J or Proctor and Gamble

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cpmm-multi-1

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True

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James

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MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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1711658516582

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will-a-braincomputer-interface-user

279.71145556616267

Will a brain-computer interface user vote and comment on this market by 2025?

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cpmm-1

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9.715096143416952

False

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1711648010499

Simone Romeo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market resolves true if a person uses a BCI to vote on this market and comment below by the end of 2025. There should be a proof that the person is really a BCI user.", "type": "text"}]}]}

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5017.895992693773

Will the New England Patriots draft a Quarterback at the 2024 NFL Draft?

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cpmm-1

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8.207162379253106

True

play

YES

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1711648108169

The Official

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1168

What will Lightcone's PnL be from running LessOnline?

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Ricki Heicklen

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{"NO": 1113.3901134293524, "YES": 33.00218120974596}

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will-sbf-initiate-an-appeal-prior-t

2430.073646280691

Will SBF initiate an appeal prior to April 15, 2024?

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3.403497709626681

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YES

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1711648376496

Cate Hall

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