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0.6425624715816725 | Ck5cxsXHlxgIrVfLuYZ3 | {"NO": 4316.847298373393, "YES": 117.04260080951613} | 1 | will-rawchickenexperiment-eat-raw-c-944157d0aff2 | 5272.275403325244 | Will RawChickenExperiment eat raw chicken for 100 days without getting a stomach ache? | 1714395615750 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1711651962851 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Link: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.instagram.com/rawchickenexperiment/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.instagram.com/rawchickenexperiment/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:dec... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.019891996666761003} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.9132159437778156, "platformFee": 3.9132159437778156, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714395615750 | 480 | strutheo | 1714395631717 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🍝 Food", "slug": "food", "groupId": "F6DkK24HpilV3Et7xJv7", "createdTime": 1711651963009}, {"name": "Chickens", "slug": "chickens", "groupId": "9696c39f-6d3e-4db5-9e5c-ef2ba5c077e3", "createdTime": 1711651963005}, {"name": "🫀 Health", "slug": "health", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1711... | ["food", "chickens", "health", "salmonella", "public-health", "internet", "experiments"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714395566017 | 1714395629569 | 0.99 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4544124960827119 | JJCzqNAEPX2Sx9mF8jc6 | {"NO": 44.48655738256912, "YES": 948.6964770811904} | 0 | will-rawchickenexperiment-eat-raw-c-e972cbfa37c9 | 996.7424772096213 | Will RawChickenExperiment eat raw chicken for 200 days without getting a stomach ache? | 1715616979547 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1711652053608 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Link: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.instagram.com/rawchickenexperiment/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.instagram.com/rawchickenexperiment/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:dec... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.9091369256273065, "platformFee": 2.9091369256273065, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715616979547 | 180 | strutheo | 1715616979547 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🍝 Food", "slug": "food", "groupId": "F6DkK24HpilV3Et7xJv7", "createdTime": 1711652053767}, {"name": "Experiments", "slug": "experiments", "groupId": "e8c9f064-4023-44da-99ed-cc4b46737fae", "createdTime": 1711652053765}, {"name": "Chickens", "slug": "chickens", "groupId": "9696c39f-6d3e-4db5-9e5c-ef2ba5c077e... | ["food", "experiments", "chickens", "health", "public-health", "salmonella", "internet"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715607863886 | 1715607871349 | 0.04 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.6863308703819244 | 20Yfi3vpjmhxpNxxW8Tp | {"NO": 1102.9805579226881, "YES": 937.3352869390192} | 0.7202599623756494 | will-the-sagrada-familia-be-fully-f | 686.4011552966421 | Will the Sagrada Familia be fully finished before SBF is released from prison | 2238296340000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.59831655385149 | False | basic | public | 1711652781186 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "when construction on the sagrada familia is deemed to have stopped this will resolve. Repairs don’t count as construction unless it gets incredibly damaged.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.013537723698647808} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.7594308414287845, "platformFee": 2.343474438721138, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JamesF | 1719062626448 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 20 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "SBF", "slug": "sbf", "groupId": "svyYtbhviU1lv8aMS9E1", "createdTime": 1711652781397}, {"name": "SBF Sentence", "slug": "sbf-trial-sentence", "groupId": "3eb54da1-d91e-42c7-94f5-e9d1ff5c1bee", "createdTime": 1711652781402}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "cre... | ["sbf", "sbf-trial-sentence", "world-default", "spain"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719062623377 | 1711661942051 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
VMeQAweSFdgJ99IFBlv3 | which-car-manufacturer-will-sell-a-7d630a123216 | 64 | Which car manufacturer will sell a SAE level 3 feature next after BMW? | 1740005940000 | Gv076pTh0ZQUVwTqQt9Ro2xnz2f1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711653091628 | Marktwse | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Honda", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " was the first one to sell a real self-driving car but limited to Japan and 100 cars in 2021. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Daimler", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"te... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 330 | marktwse | 1714420514935 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f4c3eedb8c50", "prob": 0.18217937665177406, "text": "Tesla", "index": 0, "poolNo": 28.265037059576358, "userId": "Gv076pTh0ZQUVwTqQt9Ro2xnz2f1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 126.88445120332089, "textFts": "'tesla':1", "contractId": "VMeQAweSFdgJ99IFBlv3", "createdTime": 1711653091628, "probChanges": {"day": 3.... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1671579488806 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1711653092088}, {"name": "Automotive", "slug": "automotive", "groupId": "dNh5aQXlwLm4uCesYIti", "createdTime": 1711653092086}, {"name": "Self-Driving Vehicles", "slug": "selfdriving-vehicles", "groupId": "z2q5JCx... | ["technology-default", "automotive", "selfdriving-vehicles", "tesla", "tesla-fsd"] | 0.25 | 1711972508669 | True | prob-desc | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1857539380321994 | aJXzmAE8m8B8LVEanxSr | {"NO": 159.99999999999994, "YES": 70.94434549756976} | 0.33971565438401 | will-cryonics-and-regret-make-the-t | 20 | Will "Cryonics and Regret" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711653570825 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | LessWrong | 1711948699760 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1711653570996}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1711948696429 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.715047543620869 | BKEg9WYMS8MG4Iez9y3F | {"NO": 1672.4718743405092, "YES": 225.0097837246766} | 1 | will-i-go-to-the-gym-at-least-8-tim | 1497.0525418549196 | Will I go to the gym at least 8 times in April? | 1714477490041 | sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1711660185876 | redcat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I have worked out at the gym a total of 8 times or more in April, this market will be resolved with YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For more background info check out my other market:"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.308765923975238, "platformFee": 4.308765923975238, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714477490041 | 437.5 | redcat | 1714481933843 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697305658168 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1711660186090}, {"name": "🫀 Health", "slug": "health", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1711660186086}, {"name": "mental health", "slug": "mental-health", "groupId": "d141b062-14d6-4134-bd53-1d35638321c... | ["sports-default", "health", "mental-health", "personal-goals"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714477361507 | 1714481930999 | 0.95 | sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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JJ65AYn9QEMbakqboVVa | will-biden-pass-trump-in-these-swin | 16393.27228069215 | Will Biden pass Trump in these swing states for any time before May 1st? (RCP) | 1714586400000 | vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1711660927784 | Manifold Politics | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "RCP state-level polling averages", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024", "class": "break-anywhere ho... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.65114105358702, "platformFee": 14.65114105358702, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714605787999 | 2225.5 | ManifoldPolitics | 1714586400000 | 0 | 39 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "648056397b16", "prob": 0.9950920308807243, "text": "Pennsylvania", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4740.699424401366, "userId": "vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 23.381964337647663, "textFts": "'pennsylvania':1", "contractId": "JJ65AYn9QEMbakqboVVa", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "JlVpsgz... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701801625125 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1711660928198}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1711660928200}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-defa... | ["us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 1714586106138 | 1714605663674 | 0.01 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.8220286483047806 | kS9WCPZEjUS3JrlKyus0 | {"NO": 4593.977431669204, "YES": 876.2133383931358} | 1 | will-the-average-manifolder-say-the | 9614.16081469705 | Will the average Manifolder say they're willing to have sex with a robot? | 1712899090214 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.5974212071776006 | True | basic | YES | public | 1711670031217 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Assume the robot is a full human body sized and at least attempts to simulate lifelike experiences, even if not perfect", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will be resolved by poll after market cl... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.03965618150171468} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712899090214 | 1220 | strutheo | 1712899090214 | 0 | 79 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1711670031601}, {"name": "Sex", "slug": "sex", "groupId": "hin1uXjOTBV5jHs3S2hz", "createdTime": 1711670031607}, {"name": "❤️🔥 Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3", "createdTime": 1711670031... | ["futurism", "sex", "sex-and-love", "robotics", "transhumanism", "humanoid-robotics", "ai", "ai-doom", "manifold-users", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712844711309 | 1712895492343 | 0.96 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9yw1AqMfmcAQC8BgmpG3 | what-color-will-the-2024-preakness | 1651 | What Color Will The 2024 Preakness Winning Horse Be? | 1716073260000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | 0538cdd6b260 | public | 1711671913308 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will be verified with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Equibase.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://Equibase.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-prima... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9164197663118692, "platformFee": 1.9164197663118692, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716074569304 | 235 | ovals | 1716073260000 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "746e6f97f810", "prob": 0.5215566010300503, "text": "Bay", "index": 0, "poolNo": 56.767974200966954, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 52.07538831971212, "textFts": "'bay':1", "contractId": "9yw1AqMfmcAQC8BgmpG3", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime": ... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1711671913512}, {"name": "Horse racing", "slug": "horse-racing", "groupId": "ef96178c-314c-4aed-be84-e13d3875ff06", "createdTime": 1711671913522}, {"name": "Preakness", "slug": "preakness", "groupId": "16610603-0beb-455b... | ["sports-default", "horse-racing", "preakness", "pimlico", "gradegroup-1-race"] | 0.25 | 1716063779783 | {"0538cdd6b260": 100} | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6562968606186701 | dvaR5GRlTkEVUvuU9R8V | {"NO": 389.99238932623996, "YES": 172.48053990286778} | 0.8119418814206695 | will-gpt-45-top-the-llmsys-chatbot | 209.87563745282486 | Will GPT-4.5 top the LLMSys Chatbot Arena leaderboard within a month of its release? | 1735718340000 | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711672253725 | Dan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If OpenAI skips GPT-4.5, this resolves to N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise starting from the first time it appears at all on the leaderboard, resolves YES if it hits the top spot... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.06598661046750985, "platformFee": 0.06598661046750985, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 240 | DanMan314 | 1714832946201 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1673046794414 | 0 | [{"name": "ChatGPT", "slug": "chatgpt", "groupId": "lG71NUBORXAsxGmQZo77", "createdTime": 1711672254007}, {"name": "GPT-4 speculation", "slug": "gpt4-speculation", "groupId": "SWiC5KtQnc48oWmaoAZA", "createdTime": 1711672254010}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 17116722... | ["chatgpt", "gpt4-speculation", "ai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714832942958 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8121181650501581 | rx9NoaPKZo8lhK62pmRf | {"NO": 1205.5261733918007, "YES": 919.5670661041952} | 0.8499999999999993 | will-gpt5-top-the-llmsys-chatbot-ar | 701.8425534104744 | Will GPT-5 top the LLMSys Chatbot Arena leaderboard within a month of its release? | 1735718340000 | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.770435545338595 | False | basic | public | 1711672312507 | Dan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If it's clear GPT-5 will never be released for whatever reason, resolves N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise starting from the first time it appears at all on the leaderboard, resol... | BINARY | {"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9169374117730604, "platformFee": 0.906546516176821, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | DanMan314 | 1717359889440 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1673046794414 | 0 | [{"name": "ChatGPT", "slug": "chatgpt", "groupId": "lG71NUBORXAsxGmQZo77", "createdTime": 1711672312815}, {"name": "GPT-4 speculation", "slug": "gpt4-speculation", "groupId": "SWiC5KtQnc48oWmaoAZA", "createdTime": 1711672312835}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 17116723... | ["chatgpt", "gpt4-speculation", "ai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717359886115 | 1714724597758 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5EgcTRlsFMACf19tUxqm | what-color-will-the-2024-belmont-st | 1267.3080478661952 | What Color Will The 2024 Belmont Stakes Winning Horse Be? | 1717887600000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | f67c8198812d | public | 1711673388338 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will be verified with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Equibase.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://Equibase.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-prima... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.903647019325561, "platformFee": 0.4889639344037394, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717888795592 | 175 | ovals | 1717887600000 | 0 | 9 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "f67c8198812d", "prob": 0.7486101997551118, "text": "Bay", "index": 0, "poolNo": 61.64338393055439, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20.70038316040884, "textFts": "'bay':1", "contractId": "5EgcTRlsFMACf19tUxqm", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime": 1... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | [{"name": "Horse racing", "slug": "horse-racing", "groupId": "ef96178c-314c-4aed-be84-e13d3875ff06", "createdTime": 1711673388539}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1711673388550}, {"name": "Belmont Stakes", "slug": "belmont-stakes", "groupId": "e6d8a5a7... | ["horse-racing", "sports-default", "belmont-stakes", "gradegroup-1-race", "saratoga"] | 0.25 | 1717887245519 | {"f67c8198812d": 100} | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ChCdgcSg2duXe6n42nNW | exact-order-of-lmsys-leaderboard-at | 7018.301674593884 | Exact order of LMSYS leaderboard at the end of April 2024 | 1714535940000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | basic | 7fca99c6cc14 | public | 1711673445910 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Whatever the exact elo order of the LLMs on the LMSYS leaderboard ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://huggingface.co/spa... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 39.13390443875377, "platformFee": 39.13390443875377, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714559908071 | 1310 | JamesF | 1714535940000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 24 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "9178e30eb679", "prob": 0.005556623934620862, "text": "Claude 3 Opus, GPT-4-1106, GPT-4-0125", "index": 0, "poolNo": 18.49604683849116, "userId": "nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3310.152257620353, "textFts": "'-0125':9 '-1106':6 '-4':5,8 '3':2 'claud':1 'gpt':4,7 'opus':3", "contr... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "LLMs", "slug": "llms", "groupId": "7AISXitieE7l07dhslU8", "createdTime": 1711673446795}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1711673446797}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1711673446796}] | ["llms", "ai", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 1714534282048 | 1714196136951 | {"7fca99c6cc14": 100} | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | True | prob-desc | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5923899373681013 | 3EAMii1sctAYBm3sv6oV | {"NO": 17.664264727326213, "YES": 2541.52002083299} | 0 | will-unfrosted-the-poptart-story-ha | 3263.178960398907 | Will Unfrosted: The Pop-Tart Story have a higher RottenTomatoes score than The Bee Movie? | 1715399940000 | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1711673604505 | Matty B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jerry Seinfeld hasn’t written many movies, but he wrote the internet’s favorite son, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Bee Movie (2007)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0389790/?ref_=ext_shr_l... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.334721677974539, "platformFee": 12.334721677974539, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715448448084 | 340 | mattyb | 1715459221990 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697395701475 | 0 | [{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1711673604678}, {"name": "📺 Television & Film", "slug": "television-film", "groupId": "EUSEngFk1dGGBfaMeAmh", "createdTime": 1711673604673}, {"name": "seinfeld", "slug": "seinfeld", "groupId": "60b2... | ["entertainment", "television-film", "seinfeld", "cinema", "netflix", "film-battles", "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "movies", "pop-culture", "food"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715387344873 | 1715459220307 | 0.01 | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4vIwiELr8CzXKZLh9WCq | what-will-be-true-of-grok15 | 5751.452149064091 | What will be true of Grok-1.5? | 1727765940000 | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1711673683479 | Dan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://x.ai/blog/grok-1.5", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.ai/blog/grok-1.5", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-prim... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 25.202450749731188, "platformFee": 24.21197482958138, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | DanMan314 | 1718296936139 | 0 | 29 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "eeeb48282225", "prob": 0.010359408198841919, "text": "A tweet demonstrating it doing something offensive gets 30k+ likes by the end of April", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.400107375645739, "userId": "cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1089.059219723769, "textFts": "'30k':9 'april':15 'demo... | 2 | 0.3333333333333333 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fg4HMWm0AH7.56?alt=media&token=b4dfab75-dcc4-46f2-abd5-6b5217e1db41 | 1673046794414 | 0 | [{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1711673683670}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1711673683675}, {"name": "Grok", "slug": "grok", "groupId": "cb36ffd9-d4c1-44be-8e4b-f8b6b332cd65", "createdTime... | ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "ai", "grok"] | 0.25 | 1718296933026 | 1715466837325 | False | liquidity | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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m2Pn9iimyqQHg28wIeDn | megamarket-add-options-who-will-dir | 2084.8835527449387 | [Mega-market - add options] Who will directly and intentionally kill someone in their lifetime? | 4102531140000 | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1711673780595 | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ordering someone or an AI to do it doesn't count, using more direct tools and weapons does count.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only kills after market creation count (so not Putin's KGB kil... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.380844717481525, "platformFee": 0.3487969440959081, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1100 | TheAllMemeingEye | 1719067704056 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | 15 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "1af55568191a", "prob": 0.03498111684355661, "text": "Donald Trump", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.330621008816722, "userId": "a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 257.4024581705974, "textFts": "'donald':1 'trump':2", "contractId": "m2Pn9iimyqQHg28wIeDn", "createdTime": 1711673780595, "probChan... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1704035290346 | 0 | [{"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1711673780801}, {"name": "Vladimir Putin", "slug": "vladimir-putin", "groupId": "GRfh1hXGBmhMWy8gwn7p", "createdTime": 1711673780803}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1"... | ["the-life-of-biden", "vladimir-putin", "donald-trump", "death-markets", "xi-jinping", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "celebrities", "crime"] | 0.25 | 1719067700976 | 1716563454044 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
osbD00CDUgcQGPHhH0mn | ai-capabilities-2024-mega-market | 11829.518311502612 | AI Capabilities 2024 [Mega Market] 🤖🦾🦿 | 1735707540000 | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1711674103359 | Matty B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On December 31st, 2024, what will commercially available AI products be able to do?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "That is to say, what AI capabilities could a random denizen use without heav... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 124.46248298116816, "platformFee": 28.10024750519996, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 7000 | mattyb | 1719990415815 | 0 | 168 | 4 | ANYONE | [{"id": "04f4223d72ca", "prob": 0.27396404423217313, "text": "Write a screenplay (50 pages or longer), with a decently coherent plot, consistent characters…etc.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 182.38259621333648, "userId": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 483.3346760093454, "textFts": "'50':4 'chara... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697395701475 | 0 | [{"name": "Generative AI", "slug": "generative-ai", "groupId": "0d873cbc-ab41-4b18-af2c-10e6a0d8f769", "createdTime": 1711674103813}, {"name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "groupId": "7f9f7d2a-ce2e-4905-ac9b-112007e62b30", "createdTime": 1711674103815}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines"... | ["generative-ai", "artificial-intelligence", "technical-ai-timelines", "technology-default", "ai-impacts", "ai"] | 0.25 | 1719990412742 | 1719628532458 | False | liquidity | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.469707184285522 | UR3arejqjfFr6zbm8OAR | {"NO": 131.74151404749344, "YES": 197.73936970529942} | 0.3711169841026942 | will-joseph-return-before-season-16 | 38 | Will Joseph return before Season 16 of Jetlag? | 1775404740000 | 2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711674763915 | Josh Wilkes | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "IE will he be the guest on seasons 11, 12, 13, 14 or 15?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Joseph was a guest on season 2, surely the worst Jet Lag season ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragra... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.02248827281105259} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.2606302947006422, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | JoshuaWilkes | 1718917287142 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1662006482315 | 0 | [{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1711674764065}, {"name": "YouTube", "slug": "youtube", "groupId": "bbIsp5bNcwHpSK9qu9mj", "createdTime": 1711674764063}, {"name": "Travel", "slug": "travel", "groupId": "EMJGCVmmk2GpTD7pH0wV", "creat... | ["entertainment", "youtube", "travel", "jet-lag-the-game"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718917284035 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
s41wIplnqs0u8HqoqF9x | who-will-win-the-2024-ballon-dor | 0 | Who will win the 2024 Ballon d'Or? | 1714276740000 | gKYUkWFhKyV8UH4Mj32seGx0VLY2 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1711675977773 | ye e | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714276741169 | yee3854 | 1711675977962 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJlHwObN4bfWvKfsEfsaqTH6ME1Hl5cN5R_LnQINvLJIZ4=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1711675697974 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1711675977961}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1711675977959}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 171... | ["football", "sports-default", "soccer"] | 0.25 | ["7103aad38db0"] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ZfvnN2VsUYRQia9sBtX6 | conditional-on-switching-to-a-kines | 4922.698471147937 | Conditional on switching to a Kinesis Advantage keyboard, how will my typing speed change after 2.5 months of usage? | 1738396740000 | shpTPkxBA1PLvHbCXzNSPEPIqRH3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 8.244599448805985 | False | basic | public | 1711676087334 | Glancing Uncertainty | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm considering switching from typing on my MacBook Pro's keyboard, to a Kinesis Advantage (either Advantage 2 or Advantage360, I haven't decided yet). The question is: conditional on doing that, how will my typing speed change after 2.5 months of ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 54.1502782162021, "platformFee": 9.692179163657169, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 5550 | GlancingUncertainty | 1718727298647 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKirRM3xG4kwRd8Jp15YbtHfNEpKvQtRjFIkfCzsCUS=s96-c | 90 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "2752717b9354", "prob": 0.04987473764628889, "text": ">18% slower", "index": 0, "poolNo": 234.3379210691793, "userId": "shpTPkxBA1PLvHbCXzNSPEPIqRH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4464.191477342925, "textFts": "'18':1 'slower':2", "contractId": "ZfvnN2VsUYRQia9sBtX6", "createdTime": 1711676087334, "probChanges"... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1710778872224 | 0 | [{"name": "Typing", "slug": "typing", "groupId": "5a96d6b6-93d3-41ab-9a0b-dc9f23ccd2d5", "createdTime": 1711676087566}, {"name": "Productivity", "slug": "productivity", "groupId": "CYo34JHKR2lk9ifMH279", "createdTime": 1711676087569}, {"name": "Quantified Self Futarchy", "slug": "quantified-self-futarchy", "groupId": "... | ["typing", "productivity", "quantified-self-futarchy", "nof1", "experiments"] | 0.25 | 1718727295506 | 1718062076603 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
BHHscEdpBinSuOUPBb9s | who-will-win-the-2024-euros | 0 | Who will win the 2024 Euros? | 1718423940000 | gKYUkWFhKyV8UH4Mj32seGx0VLY2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1711676100561 | ye e | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718423940979 | yee3854 | 1711794984215 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJlHwObN4bfWvKfsEfsaqTH6ME1Hl5cN5R_LnQINvLJIZ4=s96-c | 16 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1711675697974 | 0 | [{"name": "Euros 2024", "slug": "euros-2024", "groupId": "yPULnjpON1JQRT0FTlEL", "createdTime": 1711676100691}, {"name": "UEFA", "slug": "uefa", "groupId": "KSvOrWRB2hyHWfU4GnM9", "createdTime": 1711676100701}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1711676100700}, {"na... | ["euros-2024", "uefa", "soccer", "football", "sports-default"] | 0.25 | 1711794983538 | ["24173fa3722c"] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
zwbXrvZOwdaqAfs6YlTp | the-yorgoff-which-movies-will-kinds | 1792.2063912982383 | The Yorg-off: Which movies will Kinds of Kindness outscore on RottenTomatoes? | 1719588376024 | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1711676166478 | Matty B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yorgos Lanthimos", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/celebrity/yorgos_lanthimos", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline a... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.792706260110076, "platformFee": 1.427286171979797, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719588376024 | 220 | mattyb | 1719588376024 | 0 | 5 | 1 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "fe2eea554532", "prob": 0.01, "text": "The Killing of a Sacred Deer (>79%)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.082344235531451, "userId": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 602.152079317614, "textFts": "'79':7 'deer':6 'kill':2 'sacr':5", "contractId": "zwbXrvZOwdaqAfs6YlTp", "resolution": "NO",... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697395701475 | 0 | [{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1711676166741}, {"name": "📺 Television & Film", "slug": "television-film", "groupId": "EUSEngFk1dGGBfaMeAmh", "createdTime": 1711676166746}, {"name": "Entertainment", "slug": "entertainment-12ba84d9... | ["entertainment", "television-film", "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "film-battles", "movies", "rotten-tomatoes", "cinema-not-movies", "cinema"] | 0.25 | 1719554786581 | 1719587212023 | 0.01 | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | False | prob-desc | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6JPqDTSYo8PG2VN4igY2 | will-president-biden-make-6-or-more | 28288.450276468626 | Will President Biden make 6 or more Twitter(X) posts today? | 1735621140000 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711676838491 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if President Biden makes 6 or more Twitter(X) posts for the day (Eastern Time)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only Posts counts. Repost and replies do not count. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragra... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 32.66964275871922, "platformFee": 32.66964275871922, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2140 | AmmonLam | 1715447926555 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 10 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "7b9496ae0f95", "prob": 0, "text": "Before the end of March 28th, 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.146736514474469, "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10057.269668761848, "textFts": "'2024':7 '28th':6 'end':3 'march':5", "contractId": "6JPqDTSYo8PG2VN4igY2", "resolution": "NO",... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "Bitcoin maxi", "slug": "bitcoin-maxi", "groupId": "q6y2Gz8Wmy4nZwtfmpHt", "createdTime": 1711676838820}, {"name": "🅱️ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "createdTime": 1711676838821}] | ["bitcoin-maxi", "bitcoin"] | 0.25 | 1715447923110 | 1715198895456 | False | old | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9Prf65mwnbbQa1ZVsq3L | who-will-win-the-2024-monte-carlo-m-a03f5fa17ec0 | 69738.60896514975 | Who will win the 2024 Monte Carlo Masters Singles title? | 1713106281901 | MbBbNEvx5beNQIyiygTCJ8TkvQI2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | basic | f61e646a3dec | public | 1711677141565 | Kevinxiehk | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the winner of the 2024 Monte Carlo Masters.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713106281901 | 2920 | Kevinxiehk | 1713106281901 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIL3CdR8JZYPngUwK3cxsy_eRe4pJLd2h-rTDHliYscNlg=s96-c | 28 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "4a8866f626d7", "prob": 0.000554165579432786, "text": "Carlos Alcaraz", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.971589280236117, "userId": "MbBbNEvx5beNQIyiygTCJ8TkvQI2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 17983.909031097697, "textFts": "'alcaraz':2 'carlo':1", "contractId": "9Prf65mwnbbQa1ZVsq3L", "resolverId": "MbBbNEvx5beNQIyiygT... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1703346598917 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1711677141789}, {"name": "🎾 Tennis", "slug": "tennis", "groupId": "1mvN9vIVIopcWiAsXhzp", "createdTime": 1711677141791}] | ["sports-default", "tennis"] | 0.25 | 1713106237429 | 1712859572650 | {"f61e646a3dec": 100} | MbBbNEvx5beNQIyiygTCJ8TkvQI2 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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