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0.5759534949256156 | XZ7NoX0Yle0VRo4OriWW | {"NO": 213.5089148894026, "YES": 154.7058874058302} | 0.6521121871572446 | will-fanfictionnet-be-usable-in-jan | 64 | Will fanfiction.net be usable in January 2030? | 1713883993608 | OlOQ4o8W0bcbY2CJiw3IS9QcRZ53 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.723213781090253 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1711680429338 | FinalDestination | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve YES if it's possible to read and upload fanfiction on the site in January 2030. If the site happens to be down at the start of the year, will still resolve YES if it comes back up before the end of the month.", "type": "text"}]}, {"typ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713883993608 | 180 | FinalDestination | 1713883993608 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLbcwJryU_7ebr4G2XN7Qn9ZdwxgpkJQeidLCiE90ak=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1705517282671 | 0 | [{"name": "Fanfic", "slug": "fanfic", "groupId": "4563a67b-ea6d-45a9-9e4e-2eae10d276e1", "createdTime": 1711680429494}, {"name": "🌐 Internet", "slug": "internet", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1711680429499}, {"name": "Commercial Death Markets", "slug": "commercial-death-markets", "groupId": "ea7af... | ["fanfic", "internet", "commercial-death-markets"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1711798429682 | 0.65 | OlOQ4o8W0bcbY2CJiw3IS9QcRZ53 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
D6FVkdp9xcqJFwTnA3zu | would-you-end-all-social-media-acx | 0 | Would you end all social media? [ACX Survey Question] | 1713034740000 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1711680712840 | Joshua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Suppose you could wave a magic wand and end all social media. This includes Facebook, Twitter, Reddit, Discord, etc. Nobody will ever know it was you, it somehow magically won't disrupt any important projects, and no social media site can never com... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713034740482 | Joshua | 1712092628061 | 0 | 275 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1645516283433 | 0 | [{"name": "📖 ACX", "slug": "acx", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29", "createdTime": 1711680712978}, {"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1711680712981}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 17116807129... | ["acx", "polls", "technology-default", "social-media"] | 0.25 | 1712092627623 | ["211374c653cf"] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
qpZlzJoM2MTc5Rg1Doo7 | would-you-end-porn-acx-survey-quest | 0 | Would you end all porn? [ACX Survey Question] | 1713034740000 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1711680812769 | Joshua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Suppose you could wave a magic wand and end all pornography (you'll agree with whatever definition the wand chooses). Nobody will ever know it was you, porn stars will find other careers easily, and no porn site can ever come into existence again. ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713034740481 | Joshua | 1713192941913 | 0 | 486 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1645516283433 | 0 | [{"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1711680812964}, {"name": "Social Media", "slug": "social-media", "groupId": "YzNv56EFKyx9DHwGYtIU", "createdTime": 1711680812971}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTim... | ["polls", "social-media", "technology-default", "acx", "politics-default", "sex-and-love"] | 0.25 | 1713192936412 | ["f1d5b3a91892"] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4q4K5Zeh0ryGTR1VjWxD | would-you-end-all-ai-acx-survey-que | 0 | Would you end all AI? [ACX Survey Question] | 1713034740000 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1711680878216 | Joshua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Suppose you can wave a magic wand and end all AI (LLMs, image models, etc). Nobody will know it was you, it magically won't disrupt any important projects, and no similar AI will ever come into existence (people might eventually create other kinds ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713034740481 | Joshua | 1712092532361 | 0 | 325 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1645516283433 | 0 | [{"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1711680878361}, {"name": "Social Media", "slug": "social-media", "groupId": "YzNv56EFKyx9DHwGYtIU", "createdTime": 1711680878375}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTim... | ["polls", "social-media", "technology-default", "acx", "ai"] | 0.25 | 1712092530698 | ["f9d3e1a913b1"] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | a1Z91rJcNX5FWnIPvTL9 | {"NO": 273.78358750907773, "YES": 36.52519893899205} | 1 | will-the-next-unique-nonchristmas-d | 287 | Will the next unique (non-Christmas) Don't Forget Daily happen within the next year? | 1712526542269 | n1ZFS428CKRTVF5xiAJJHsfGfss2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.1891897064052515 | True | play | YES | public | 1711681594279 | Najawin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the past 2000 days, the youtube channel ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Don't Forget Daily", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/@DontForgetDaily/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712526542269 | 120 | Najawin | 1712526586506 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIeT2AGuhQ3RJ_aXRU0h-DIVlDI88KHt7zuAy_NJ6l5=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700297415356 | 0 | [{"name": "YouTube", "slug": "youtube", "groupId": "bbIsp5bNcwHpSK9qu9mj", "createdTime": 1711681594428}, {"name": "Doctor Who", "slug": "doctor-who", "groupId": "gZBhA7uv8d1q5i3UWBc2", "createdTime": 1711681594426}] | ["youtube", "doctor-who"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712526521120 | 1712526586074 | 0.88 | n1ZFS428CKRTVF5xiAJJHsfGfss2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8588806593486259 | pLKLenwiuup5T33rTFuP | {"NO": 1775.9295526544995, "YES": 855.3922528343123} | 0.9266642555502784 | will-abortion-be-a-big-political-is | 944.0704473454994 | Will abortion be a big political issue in the US in 2028? | 1861900140000 | zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.030858649084117 | False | basic | public | 1711682258804 | ~deleted~ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve this based on some combination of how much it gets talked about in elections, how much money goes to interest groups on both topics, and how much of the \"political conversation\" seems to be about either.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 4.440892098500626e-16, "week": 4.440892098500626e-16, "month": 4.440892098500626e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | _deleted_ | 1713301852358 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1672001526837 | 0 | [{"name": "2028 US presidential election", "slug": "2028-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "c83fd20c-226d-4b9e-ad21-b116412d4009", "createdTime": 1711682258943}, {"name": "Abortion", "slug": "abortion", "groupId": "e1bf3240-d8e5-47ff-b924-09f98846996c", "createdTime": 1711682258942}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "s... | ["2028-us-presidential-election", "abortion", "us-politics", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712487453280 | 1713301851757 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NadnBmv2o17rHuVKwdj1 | what-will-manifold-want-to-ban-most | 26179.349149376605 | What will have the most yes votes to make it stop existing: AI, Porn, or Social Media? [ACX Survey] | 1713035132460 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | basic | 6e11d5410b27 | public | 1711682921070 | Joshua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the results of the polls below. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After market close, I will resolve this market based on the number of \"ye... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713035132460 | 3865 | Joshua | 1713656578943 | 0 | 109 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "28eba8d96d9a", "prob": 0.005418792773518984, "text": "End AI > End Social Media > End Porn", "index": 0, "poolNo": 50.89531447453566, "userId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9341.476123543025, "textFts": "'ai':2 'end':1,3,6 'media':5 'porn':7 'social':4", "contractId": "NadnBmv2o... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1645516283433 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1711682921625}, {"name": "Social Media", "slug": "social-media", "groupId": "YzNv56EFKyx9DHwGYtIU", "createdTime": 1711682921626}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZX... | ["politics-default", "social-media", "technology-default", "acx", "ai"] | 0.25 | 1713035008494 | 1713656578307 | {"6e11d5410b27": 100} | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | True | prob-desc | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.589215969441363 | Pxuhz81HZYibTi8XUqz8 | {"NO": 2251.35400655288, "YES": 564.779302127131} | 0.8511408716781732 | will-usa-have-a-cyber-attack-in-jun | 1398.195397014817 | Will USA Have a cyber Attack in June 2024 | 1719809940000 | ArkifWXHhRXUMNAXZszPr4VFCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.908412712943482 | False | basic | public | 1711683698219 | kane bloodworth | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.23524165193372026, "month": 0.23524165193372026} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.291554603322698, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | kanebloodworth | 1719808895449 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIVER5nigkMsQUiVeGU007MINesg9Ksr1J4qu3oZ-rHtZY=s96-c | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1711588962122 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1711683698353}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1711683698359}, {"name": "Cybersecurity", "slug": "cybersecurity", "groupId": "ed5f0e20-b973-488a-8604-39d1c0c18c2d", ... | ["ai", "politics-default", "cybersecurity"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719808892378 | 1712231214235 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9398882673131639 | K9WYN2GmPcwZkscT4z2N | {"NO": 2100.346748021372, "YES": 240.29292631822193} | 1 | will-jimmy-carter-be-alive-at-the-e-c70d5e3293ef | 3968.43929766229 | Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on March 29? | 1711771593747 | ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.380176753940108 | True | play | YES | public | 1711684111061 | Jimmy Carter Death Markets | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Changes are coming to a Jimmy market near you. - Just a couple more things. All changes will be done by Mar 7 or so or later than that or never. Prob at some point.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type":... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1711771593747 | 340 | JCDM | 1711771593747 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1703455433441 | 0 | [{"name": "Jimmy Carter", "slug": "jimmy-carter", "groupId": "rigfelwTsUUySMFFJz5O", "createdTime": 1711684111204}, {"name": "Public Figures", "slug": "public-figures", "groupId": "sIbESq9CYGTy9yeah6Tg", "createdTime": 1711684111218}, {"name": "Longevity", "slug": "longevity", "groupId": "b8Ygbdfv5q2sQsZQGmkl", "create... | ["jimmy-carter", "public-figures", "longevity", "death-markets", "jimmy-carter-daily", "entertainment"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1711770316393 | 0.99 | ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.15769621289936578 | Bi9MclvKWCp4h1amtvUF | {"NO": 130, "YES": 75.684028658545} | 0.24333105175271186 | will-the-smallest-possible-button-o | 10 | Will "The smallest possible button (or: moth traps!)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711687801260 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | LessWrong | 1711699745460 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1711687801413}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1711699741702 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.45973382146067077 | Gl8GT8JRgMQ04EjQwBxc | {"NO": 96.77607977071611, "YES": 369.4294749238098} | 0.182280259801395 | will-the-european-common-frog-rana | 191 | Will the European Common Frog (Rana temporaria) become extinct in the current century? | 4102441140000 | OOuU1xDOeYXmwST8K8XFHi8dedJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711707877948 | Extinction Risk | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The European Common Frog, a.k.a. Common Frog or Grass Frog, is a semi-aquatic amphibian found throughout much of Europe. This market will resolve YES if the European Common Frog is declared extinct by the IUCN by 2100 or earlier, and NO if it is no... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7852625380951271, "platformFee": 0.7852625380951271, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 180 | ExtinctionRisk | 1716326647734 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1708510781928 | 0 | [{"name": "Extinction Risk", "slug": "extinction-risk", "groupId": "19a4aeaa-d9f9-4cc7-9a85-a775269ceaa5", "createdTime": 1711707878133}, {"name": "Zoology", "slug": "zoology", "groupId": "tvzqaAGtUlwMWPfYQLuh", "createdTime": 1711707878139}, {"name": "Biodiversity", "slug": "biodiversity", "groupId": "3721391e-74a0-4b... | ["extinction-risk", "zoology", "biodiversity", "animals", "environment-243810591da2"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716326644490 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
sZuWGJISzowvZBkLqKiA | how-many-of-the-next-10-world-esper | 10 | What fraction of World Esperanto Congresses will be held on each continent in the next decade? | 2051218740000 | lTYsNQ5HB0TagJeITqfm7jvq3pb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711707879362 | Marty Dettmann | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This year's World Esperanto Congress will be held in Arusha, Tanzania and will be the first one ever to take place in Africa. What will the breakdown of host continents look like for the congresses held 2025-2034?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "par... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 190 | MartyDettmann | 1712015252015 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4X4k5peP3YYJWBXSzhmIMRoOAjScc3GzTCFflw=s96-c | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "ede7cbb0655c", "prob": 0.5106902727085063, "text": "Europe", "index": 0, "poolNo": 67.9648995587532, "userId": "lTYsNQ5HB0TagJeITqfm7jvq3pb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 65.1194828758158, "textFts": "'europ':1", "contractId": "sZuWGJISzowvZBkLqKiA", "createdTime": 1711707879363, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "we... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1674507974528 | 0 | [{"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1711707879684}, {"name": "Linguistics", "slug": "linguistics", "groupId": "A79h2H25jWqaKW1cgLia", "createdTime": 1711707879682}, {"name": "Language", "slug": "language", "groupId": "tegXqevnSJSDlHW3Kbel", "createdTime": 171... | ["world-default", "linguistics", "language", "conlangs", "esperanto", "conventions"] | 0.25 | 1711708237692 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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BVvo6C3XZX06BCTnweZE | which-of-the-english-words-is-say-a | 332.1745687626173 | Which of the English words is say as Cajole? | 1712357940000 | bLlHpLhi9WXyhcAAteeZUsiudY32 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | CHOOSE_MULTIPLE | public | 1711708963467 | General Charles R | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712411067673 | 370 | GeneralCharlesR | 1712357940000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLhQE6Mg5MbjhS5cnl5qBU3HfLJaT6LRGu8I4t0yHsg=s96-c | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0b1e05f7d803", "prob": 0.04123928696887789, "text": "Money on my hand", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.443607759944886, "userId": "bLlHpLhi9WXyhcAAteeZUsiudY32", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 173.05436655184096, "textFts": "'hand':4 'money':1", "contractId": "BVvo6C3XZX06BCTnweZE", "resolverId": "bLlHpLhi9WXyhcAAteeZU... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1711530188373 | 0 | [{"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1711708963723}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1711708963726}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politi... | ["crypto-speculation", "2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics", "bitcoin", "ai", "economics-default"] | 0.25 | 1712357658323 | 1712408964417 | {"9c1659fc6d7d": 35.959406578442554, "aa598cbee2f8": 64.04059342155745} | bLlHpLhi9WXyhcAAteeZUsiudY32 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.32578238275294397 | YkdjQfC91of0KOUL9rXa | {"NO": 319.94858147964254, "YES": 504.41630390609} | 0 | are-elephants-from-africa-considere | 249.18478510858532 | Are elephants from Africa considered to be American-born if they arrive here? | 1712357940000 | tb37LeCVPGPwEHCl02kENfsqUV43 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.0657215978567025 | True | play | NO | public | 1711709499772 | Iyoha Gideon | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.23459132681073952} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712471224945 | 380 | IyohaGideon | 1712357940000 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1711325914777 | 0 | [] | [] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712329056334 | 1712319985803 | 0.23 | tb37LeCVPGPwEHCl02kENfsqUV43 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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XC64lRsK8C0xiKhzmXCY | which-country-will-be-the-first-to-1eec55b415bf | 52.18382652569097 | Which country will be the first to go over 5 on the Economist's Democracy index | 2238382740000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711709965010 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/democracy-index-eiu?time=latest", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/democracy-index-eiu?time=latest", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:d... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 180 | JamesF | 1713127193615 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 4 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "a66e371a4833", "prob": 0.265262550587965, "text": "North Korea", "index": 0, "poolNo": 35.37848850100221, "userId": "nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 97.99310286228817, "textFts": "'korea':2 'north':1", "contractId": "XC64lRsK8C0xiKhzmXCY", "createdTime": 1711709965010, "probChanges"... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1711709965186}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1711709965189}, {"name": "Democracy", "slug": "democracy", "groupId": "3bc21e70-ee0c-4edb-8a76-88bd3e832... | ["politics-default", "world-default", "democracy"] | 0.25 | 1713127190361 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6994187201123322 | dvfiGFF7rFXm2DP4w2AF | {"NO": 1115.1538158250553, "YES": 928.3552306016388} | 0.7365016878830142 | will-asi-be-achieved-before-a-surge | 389.8211130033522 | Will ASI be achieved before a surgery takes place on the moon | 2869534740000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.554468087333625 | False | basic | public | 1711710182427 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "ASI taken from other markets on manifold", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.1593405817606381, "platformFee": 1.104933778784546, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JamesF | 1717385645317 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 15 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "🔭 Space exploration", "slug": "space-exploration", "groupId": "7EN6VxtLzX459WLUsjQv", "createdTime": 1711710182552}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1711710182555}, {"name": "🫀 Health", "slug": "health", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime... | ["space-exploration", "space", "health", "ai", "moon", "asi", "technology-default", "science-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717385642186 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.29651323162761495 | h6U2IrLpoSOOarhk1aYz | {"NO": 184.95582367700538, "YES": 7717.761433177124} | 0 | will-bitcoin-hit-a-new-all-time-hig | 13413.622946130903 | Will Bitcoin hit a new all time high before 4/20 ends | 1713671940000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.265860985884152 | True | play | NO | public | 1711725610828 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All time high counts for any bitcoin bought over the previous all time high ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently it is 73,750.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.01000000000000001} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3620232740349541, "platformFee": 0.3620232740349541, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713698254365 | 720 | JamesF | 1713671940000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 37 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "🪙 Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 1711725611257}, {"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1711725611267}, {"name": "🅱️ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "cr... | ["crypto-prices", "crypto-speculation", "bitcoin", "bitcoin-alltimehigh", "bitcoin-maxi"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713565496346 | 0.01 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ekEcRHeyvbcpaRA0pLbq | premier-league-weekend-prop-bets-ma | 5687.862533905209 | Premier League Weekend Prop Bets, Mar 30-31 | 1711905910514 | 6C8eyp1HS4Qqfpn2ver4UmvM2Xy1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1711726163597 | Tyler | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It's a big weekend of games, coming out of the break! What will happen?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All bets should be affected by at least one of the 10 PL games happening this weekend (M... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1711905910514 | 1185 | Tyler31 | 1712400766266 | 0 | 16 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "398ba9d76fdc", "prob": 0.028898028214190134, "text": "Man City ends the weekend on top of the table", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15.193050718246056, "userId": "6C8eyp1HS4Qqfpn2ver4UmvM2Xy1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 510.55391740138634, "textFts": "'citi':2 'end':3 'man':1 'tabl':10 'top':7 'weekend':5", "contra... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1645086356220 | 0 | [{"name": "Premier League 2023-2024", "slug": "premier-league-20232024", "groupId": "45a307ca-d75b-4ae8-a58d-01330e1f2be5", "createdTime": 1711726163853}, {"name": "Premier League", "slug": "premiere-league", "groupId": "5gsW3dPR3ySBRZCodrgm", "createdTime": 1711726163866}, {"name": "Prop Bets", "slug": "prop-bets", "g... | ["premier-league-20232024", "premiere-league", "prop-bets"] | 0.25 | 1711905878005 | 1712400765683 | 0.99 | 6C8eyp1HS4Qqfpn2ver4UmvM2Xy1 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
YL9XV8ntHsOiPYPP92ID | do-you-jaywalk | 0 | Do you jaywalk? | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1711726187713 | stefanie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "for the purpose of this poll:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "answer with the option that matches your take on jaywalking in an average setting - likely the place you live - rather than traveling to a place where yo... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | shankypanky | 1718072302121 | 0 | 59 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1698976802308 | 0 | [{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1711726187894}, {"name": "Society", "slug": "society", "groupId": "65d5a4b4-7131-45ca-9097-9966ea151d9b", "createdTime": 1711726187892}] | ["law-order", "society"] | 0.25 | 1718072300905 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6808936364579444 | Yge5Ls7Du99a6jE7uy09 | {"NO": 11261.16781037296, "YES": 19.592275680888633} | 1 | shortfuse-will-beyonces-cowboy-cart | 11275.11130341316 | [short-fuse 💣] Will Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter receive Best New Album from Pitchfork? | 1711978169916 | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.6753886473943025 | True | play | YES | public | 1711728582489 | Matty B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I expect the review to drop this weekend or by early next week. Will Pitchfork give Beyoncé her 6th consecutive Best New Album/Music?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Beyoncé albums an... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.01990856331394142} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1711978169916 | 180 | mattyb | 1711978169916 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697395701475 | 0 | [{"name": "Reviews", "slug": "reviews", "groupId": "3547f1a4-8266-409d-8e0a-7675ee6ada1d", "createdTime": 1711728582691}, {"name": "Pitchfork", "slug": "pitchfork", "groupId": "a68e1899-3236-4332-919e-5382bdf35034", "createdTime": 1711728582770}, {"name": "Music Artists", "slug": "music-artists", "groupId": "2j0sKR6KW5... | ["reviews", "pitchfork", "music-artists", "beyonce", "short-fuse", "music-f213cbf1eab5"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1711978157863 | 1711978141151 | 1 | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
b4kOR3my5Lp7glQeeOSK | which-tv-show-will-i-prefer-the-las | 92.58681683050067 | Which TV show will I prefer: The Last of Us or Shōgun? | 1714040639661 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | 52ded2d869fb | public | 1711729031987 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market resolves to which tv show I prefer, after watching both.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I've watched the Last of Us and I loved it. But I also heard great things about Shogun. ", "... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714040950434 | 260 | Bayesian | 1720053161621 | 0 | 8 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "52ded2d869fb", "prob": 0.5968894692817924, "text": "The Last of Us", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 218.23787847521973, "userId": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 147.38740008399918, "textFts": "'last':2 'us':4", "contractId": "b4kOR3my5Lp7glQeeOSK", "resolverId": "srFlJR... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "The Last of Us", "slug": "the-last-of-us", "groupId": "c1b0fe03-9f86-4ac2-9f3f-39a95101bf24", "createdTime": 1711729032199}, {"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId": "8isZHbaQMsoFz30XuZTo", "createdTime": 1711729032206}, {"name": "Shogun", "slug": "shogun-48d1578c348e", "groupId": "958543fd-6d57-40fd-ae58-017... | ["the-last-of-us", "tv", "shogun-48d1578c348e", "tv-shows"] | 0.25 | 1713366745568 | 1714040998129 | {"52ded2d869fb": 100} | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.46224544756738095 | LBZLYjdVuR7JE4ADYJp3 | {"NO": 1823.1707143176227, "YES": 14.932920055373074} | 1 | will-chris-weidman-beat-bruno-silva | 2961.812072674051 | Will Chris Weidman beat Bruno Silva at UFC on ESPN: "Blanchfield vs. Fiorot
Middleweight" (03/30/2024) | 1711861140000 | CoeMNUk0b7WouGke4R8dCMXg7Ox2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.8076899428884703 | True | play | YES | public | 1711729647640 | Supreme Carrot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "•This market will resolve in a YES if Chris Weidman wins the fight.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "•A draw will resolve in a NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragrap... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1711861844928 | 200 | Carrotcake | 1711861140000 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1651872970177 | 0 | [{"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId": "RCGUqqLvrrs1ievZIxDE", "createdTime": 1711729647796}, {"name": "MMA (Mixed Martial Arts)", "slug": "mma-mixed-martial-arts", "groupId": "079mFVtgf6PljrwbHIpR", "createdTime": 1711729647798}, {"name": "UFC", "slug": "ufc", "groupId": "oQEmR7LpGHSDsM2Ua87u", "createdT... | ["fighting", "mma-mixed-martial-arts", "ufc", "espn"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1711857866277 | 0.99 | CoeMNUk0b7WouGke4R8dCMXg7Ox2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Za8jTIRhvLK5Y8veC3bO | when-will-neuralink-implant-the-fir | 415.6995868039029 | When will Neuralink implant the first chip to cure blindness in a person? | 1830380340000 | ChkIUvDGJqPjAcsjRqLdvzWfeyw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1711730754128 | Simone Romeo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves when there's an official announcement by neuralink proving that they started the first human trial of the Blindsight implant", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SimoneRomeo | 1712278921814 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKsTe1OuSlrF4Bq4iBBPjtQlimBPGxShXSI_8Cz0MehwA=s96-c | 15 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "52228de6f3f2", "prob": 0.10178113733136694, "text": "2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 39.66085946565042, "userId": "ChkIUvDGJqPjAcsjRqLdvzWfeyw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 350.007211706784, "textFts": "'2024':1", "contractId": "Za8jTIRhvLK5Y8veC3bO", "createdTime": 1711730754128, "probChanges": {"day": -1.2490... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1702703079293 | 0 | [{"name": "Neuralink", "slug": "neuralink", "groupId": "7a8763d0-504f-446d-a291-f8c40e35b963", "createdTime": 1711730754517}, {"name": "Neuroscience", "slug": "neuroscience", "groupId": "zE4oiI6GohoAznyJXliO", "createdTime": 1711730754514}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwO... | ["neuralink", "neuroscience", "technology-default", "braincomputer-interface", "ai"] | 0.25 | 1712278918573 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4423767847057697 | qTJ8wPTQqc1AD4LbVUin | {"NO": 44.157829216106016, "YES": 1641.2275612510482} | 0.020898641149522397 | will-carlos-sainz-drive-for-aston-m | 3477.23088320078 | Will Carlos Sainz drive for Aston Martin for the 2025 season? | 1738821540000 | SRxmoUA5vtev4qT2Wz1kN4u9pql2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711730791029 | Garrett Battaglia | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 3.469446951953614e-18, "week": -0.0009028414246961061, "month": -0.1567401845824147} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.57450744707559, "platformFee": 1.0652884803857299, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 220 | GarrettBattaglia | 1719757027996 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJfkQN0vGEHvHSgP4K3xMkssuvvIyApHJY31tAt_k6WoA=s96-c | 15 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1709524747691 | 0 | [{"name": "🏎️ Formula 1", "slug": "formula-1", "groupId": "OyHBKJOz9YaGkDctpwuY", "createdTime": 1711730791178}] | ["formula-1"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719757024891 |
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