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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.6133364893134521 | n1o8BlwSsl3Nm3u7fxMI | {"NO": 2528.6071397788814, "YES": 40.51462080552119} | 1 | will-taylor-swifts-youtube-channel-3625e42f5bf9 | 2808.2770732910512 | Will Taylor Swift's youtube channel reach 57.6M subscribers in April 2024? | 1713620229829 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.1611888983915004 | True | play | YES | public | 1711999115074 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to numbers reported on socialblade page ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/taylor_swift/monthly", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.015009133153744858} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.55856123115074, "platformFee": 7.55856123115074, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713620229829 | 340 | AmmonLam | 1713620229829 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "Subscriber Milestones", "slug": "subscriber-milestones", "groupId": "if2RfO5Jwj5bOuJEudCG", "createdTime": 1711999115212}, {"name": "๐ธ Taylor Swift", "slug": "taylor-swift", "groupId": "TgyXEpID2HktDrf1QYfB", "createdTime": 1711999115218}, {"name": "YouTube", "slug": "youtube", "groupId": "bbIsp5bNcwHpSK9qu... | ["subscriber-milestones", "taylor-swift", "youtube"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713620190825 | 0.99 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6626225726348641 | 9gHyWIjtWvx8yzNExyg6 | {"NO": 3669.51976179536, "YES": 72.79880331815775} | 1 | will-taylor-swifts-youtube-channel-f5263a30e3dd | 4285.090913825684 | Will Taylor Swift's youtube channel reach 57.4M subscribers in April 2024? | 1713666624855 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.188597686137765 | True | play | YES | public | 1711999142416 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to numbers reported on socialblade page ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/taylor_swift/monthly", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.050367646400140687} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.003465252192342, "platformFee": 2.003465252192342, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713666624855 | 300 | AmmonLam | 1713666624855 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "YouTube", "slug": "youtube", "groupId": "bbIsp5bNcwHpSK9qu9mj", "createdTime": 1711999142564}, {"name": "๐ธ Taylor Swift", "slug": "taylor-swift", "groupId": "TgyXEpID2HktDrf1QYfB", "createdTime": 1711999142570}, {"name": "Subscriber Milestones", "slug": "subscriber-milestones", "groupId": "if2RfO5Jwj5bOuJEu... | ["youtube", "taylor-swift", "subscriber-milestones"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713666616704 | 0.99 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4162752473829275 | skbDOw9gwMDWLaywW1Mh | {"NO": 26.403498818049457, "YES": 1864.099770217203} | 0 | will-manifold-market-be-more-popula-cff84d7a18ad | 1708.8086574521826 | Will Manifold Market be more popular than Kalshi during April 2024? | 1714601467392 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1711999214873 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll look at the google trend search volume of \"Manifold Markets\" and \"Kalshi\" over April 2024 and visually decide if Manifold Markets have more search volume than Kalshi", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://trends.google... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.354443617489875, "platformFee": 2.354443617489875, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714601467392 | 160 | AmmonLam | 1714601467392 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1711999215259}, {"name": "๐ Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1711999215266}, {"name": "Manifold User Retention", "slug": "manifold-use... | ["manifold-business-future", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-user-retention"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714555449116 | 1714556398573 | 0.01 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4086984633254962 | 72GNEhX7gzBiVnnJopng | {"NO": 126.09904790791478, "YES": 282.569408669071} | 0.2357352345300543 | will-reddit-surpass-69-before-the-e | 147 | Will reddit surpass $69 before the end of 2024? | 1735707540000 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711999373872 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RDDT/history", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/R... | BINARY | {"day": -3.0531133177191805e-16, "week": -3.0531133177191805e-16, "month": -3.0531133177191805e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 180 | AmmonLam | 1712240780708 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1711999374028}, {"name": "๐ต Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1711999374056}] | ["stocks", "finance"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712240777383 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2502675525254412 | xHe7paNBUdl0pZq5eKoC | {"NO": 149.33868897172974, "YES": 4885.235641805964} | 0 | will-reddit-surpass-69-before-the-e-fae91ca821f9 | 5611.37166462922 | Will reddit surpass $69 before the end of April 2024? | 1714622340000 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1711999385423 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RDDT/history", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/R... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.63158580350907, "platformFee": 8.63158580350907, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714660827107 | 400 | AmmonLam | 1714622340000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1711999385610}, {"name": "๐ต Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1711999385611}] | ["stocks", "finance"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714617433153 | 0.01 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3FM0cq7VOKLRcRIXLWbw | 20242025-sec-mens-basketball-confer | 456.6737534129143 | 2024-2025 SEC Men's Basketball Conference Win% | 1741669140000 | Pz0pin44RWh4Mh2FrEUWX1hxD0M2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711999538643 | AnAnonymousSource | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each option will resolve to the percentage of games won in SEC play by the corresponding team.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 900 | AnAnonymousSource | 1712134483772 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "738ca36cdfdc", "prob": 0.7293309887961754, "text": "Auburn", "index": 0, "poolNo": 84.48782343077222, "userId": "Pz0pin44RWh4Mh2FrEUWX1hxD0M2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 31.35508565804458, "textFts": "'auburn':1", "contractId": "3FM0cq7VOKLRcRIXLWbw", "createdTime": 1711999538643, "probChanges": {"day": 0, ... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1711946691323 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ College Basketball", "slug": "college-basketball", "groupId": "beeb69e0-b36f-451a-80e1-e059df456bb1", "createdTime": 1711999538930}, {"name": "SEC", "slug": "sec", "groupId": "fced6b02-8033-4522-bfae-c3b9c0f9744d", "createdTime": 1711999538932}, {"name": "๐๏ธ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": ... | ["college-basketball", "sec", "sports-default", "basketball"] | 0.25 | 1712134480519 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
G03A2qPsbdJTpHMg79mD | 20242025-big-east-mens-basketball-c | 272.56088284613895 | 2024-2025 Big East Men's Basketball Conference Win% | 1741669140000 | Pz0pin44RWh4Mh2FrEUWX1hxD0M2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711999700230 | AnAnonymousSource | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each option will resolve to the percentage of games won in Big East play by the corresponding team.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 595 | AnAnonymousSource | 1712134402042 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "bb97da260784", "prob": 0.8222246453091576, "text": "UConn", "index": 0, "poolNo": 104.48782343077221, "userId": "Pz0pin44RWh4Mh2FrEUWX1hxD0M2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 22.591587320148115, "textFts": "'uconn':1", "contractId": "G03A2qPsbdJTpHMg79mD", "createdTime": 1711999700230, "probChanges": {"day": -1.... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1711946691323 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ College Basketball", "slug": "college-basketball", "groupId": "beeb69e0-b36f-451a-80e1-e059df456bb1", "createdTime": 1711999700470}, {"name": "๐ Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1711999700468}, {"name": "๐๏ธ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId":... | ["college-basketball", "basketball", "sports-default", "big-east"] | 0.25 | 1712134398756 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7534661462803235 | SpAfcPaLK9MaxCBzPrOl | {"NO": 2559.3204712922043, "YES": 445.8582584779629} | 1 | will-elon-tweet-about-420-on-420 | 3761.312370148932 | Will Elon tweet about โ4/20โ on 4/20? ๐๐ฅ๐จ | 1713634955093 | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.8261308214672036 | True | play | YES | public | 1712000196726 | Matty B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Should be pretty self-explanatory - the tweet must mention โ4/20โ in some capacity. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Elonโs page is here", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://twitter.com/elonmusk", "class": "break-anyw... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.10226275747765112} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.903208041548194, "platformFee": 16.903208041548194, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713634955093 | 740 | mattyb | 1713634955093 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697395701475 | 0 | [{"name": "โ๏ธ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1712000196869}, {"name": "420 baby", "slug": "420-baby", "groupId": "r6A8yqhwedPg0kW29p6u", "createdTime": 1712000196871}, {"name": "๐ Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "creat... | ["twitter", "420-baby", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "drugs", "weed", "twitter-ceo-ce5b7980a96a", "marijuana"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713634891541 | 1713634943822 | 0.95 | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.850892296681805 | cJTt1xGjK20TVrlRjBFW | {"NO": 1662.7935573822197, "YES": 271.71684264946214} | 1 | will-amanabot-receive-20-unique-dep | 1921.3511003355995 | Will AMANABOT receive deposits from >20 unique manifold accounts by April 8th 2024? | 1712534757668 | 2yBGlqecngd9lGMIFXnaJfE86nn2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.003415809655599 | True | play | YES | public | 1712000587035 | Anton Makiievskyi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AMANABOT", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/AMANABOT", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.02783826958225566} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712534757668 | 465 | mckiev | 1712534757668 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1670333970933 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ช Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1712000587202}, {"name": "๐ Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712000587205}, {"name": "Privacy", "slug": "privacy", "groupId": "1f1f4a4c-8f62-4b4b-b06c-efc... | ["crypto-speculation", "manifold-6748e065087e", "privacy"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712096160458 | 1712073854379 | 0.97 | 2yBGlqecngd9lGMIFXnaJfE86nn2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.29864525141845444 | VJM63qDzasRfBOPXF4wW | {"NO": 133.01356661458112, "YES": 376.02655869370295} | 0.13090665217307063 | ethena-crashdepeg-in-2024 | 3625 | Ethena USDe crash/depeg in 2024? | 1735685940000 | 85nJB0gHwPMXmUtBO72YrwlNDI22 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712000953307 | Simon | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Ethena stays below 90 cents for a period of 12 hours or more in 2024 (same rules as Polymarket)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 8.326672684688674e-17, "week": 8.326672684688674e-17, "month": 8.326672684688674e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | Simon74fe | 1713064782118 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1645874228924 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ช Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1712001080767}, {"name": "๐ช Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 1712001084472}, {"name": "Stablecoins", "slug": "stablecoins", "groupId": "hUhfLNjwuIWIjGkMyoQT",... | ["crypto-speculation", "crypto-prices", "stablecoins", "technology-default", "ethereum"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713064778854 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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4e83h191hUCGW1F69PlN | osrs-which-days-will-sharks-cost-mo-33fcd005f647 | 17364.13321763503 | [OSRS] Which days will Sharks cost more GP than the previous day? (Daily Market) | 1714595570013 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1712008056374 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://secure.runescape.com/m=itemdb_oldschool/Shark/viewitem?obj=385", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://secure.runescape.com/m=itemdb_oldschool/Shark/viewitem?obj=385", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 17.076998149317287, "platformFee": 17.076998149317287, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714595570013 | 1250 | KeenenW | 1714595570013 | 0 | 7 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "b78559274ac3", "prob": 1, "text": "April 1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1025, "userId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6097560975608758, "textFts": "'1':2 'april':1", "contractId": "4e83h191hUCGW1F69PlN", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "createdTime... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "Sharks", "slug": "sharks", "groupId": "d17ddcf4-5868-46c7-84f1-fa6d0b10902c", "createdTime": 1712008056691}, {"name": "Old School Runescape (OSRS)", "slug": "old-school-runescape-osrs", "groupId": "c9374a89-feda-4c2d-b26b-240a232736a5", "createdTime": 1712008056698}, {"name": "Runescape", "slug": "runescape"... | ["sharks", "old-school-runescape-osrs", "runescape", "daily-markets"] | 0.25 | 1714595561807 | 1714367200537 | 0.99 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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BuxsHfo45bjZlBOjCz9d | who-will-be-the-first-billionaire-t | 1386.6805814971387 | Who will be the first Billionaire to walk on the Moon? | 2556161940000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712008410506 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "8goAUFZEeX9APFzvR65N", "label": "/strutheo/will-mark-zuckerberg-ever-orbit-or"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "3w7HdsnqEJWO7zNKA... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.652134125168743, "platformFee": 1.8013783763522668, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1030 | strutheo | 1718725714688 | 0 | 20 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "60b87f13aa20", "prob": 0.003761069002260012, "text": "Mark Zuckerberg", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.143033458930126, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1097.4143845093636, "textFts": "'mark':1 'zuckerberg':2", "contractId": "BuxsHfo45bjZlBOjCz9d", "createdTime": 1712008410506, "... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Billionaires", "slug": "billionaires", "groupId": "d7b8968a-3418-44f3-baa7-95980653688b", "createdTime": 1712008411264}, {"name": "๐ Moon", "slug": "moon", "groupId": "mcSfQitoDEt19DoPDBJc", "createdTime": 1712008411266}, {"name": "๐ Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime... | ["billionaires", "moon", "space", "wealth", "artemis-3"] | 0.25 | 1718725711392 | 1713504227231 | True | prob-desc | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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FhCVHP2m6EDRIERhVTTK | good-april-fool-today | 10 | Good April Fool today? | 1712116740000 | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | 99ef0ef44665 | public | 1712008812179 | Martin Randall | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712138971457 | 120 | MartinRandall | 1720053161621 | 0 | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "99ef0ef44665", "prob": 0.5475113122171946, "text": "Yes", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 75.00000000000001, "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 61.983471074380176, "textFts": "'yes':1", "contractId": "FhCVHP2m6EDRIERhVTTK", "resolverId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekk... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1644445070964 | 0 | 0.25 | 1712016217611 | {"99ef0ef44665": 100} | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5628194893661739 | sYWcRth6EmJkYzP9IeUQ | {"NO": 245.70010940871583, "YES": 232.50341897700565} | 0.57635295410523 | will-kim-jong-un-stop-being-the-lea-d60fd2b2d7b0 | 179.57778979016845 | Will Kim Jong Un stop being the leader of North Korea before North Korea and South Korea go to war again. | 3502933140000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712009292208 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "North Korea and South Korea are in a state of semi-permanent ceasefire. I am not counting this ceasefire as a war. If they break this ceasefire or if they end the โwarโ and go to war again this will resolve.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.42382102704726543, "platformFee": 0.42382102704726543, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 240 | JamesF | 1714253976141 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "โ๏ธ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1712009292359}, {"name": "Asia", "slug": "asia", "groupId": "bPTxMZhUYsIUXsWT969d", "createdTime": 1712009292358}, {"name": "North Korea", "slug": "north-korea", "groupId": "5aafMiQ5NeYij6TE1G1i", "createdTime": 1712009292364}, {"nam... | ["wars", "asia", "north-korea", "world-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714253972656 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
wh3Jcbv1Lq9M6JBDCA3h | what-animal-will-be-the-first-to-wa | 394.41003895349365 | What animal will be the first to walk on the Moon? | 2871781140000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712009359544 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Human does not count. Must be alive not a crashed dead animal. If multiple land in the same journey, they will split by percentage (50% if two, 33% if three resolve, etc)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9046579565361883, "platformFee": 0.9174101437847063, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1400 | strutheo | 1719550977697 | 0 | 15 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "7ccbfa988c0d", "prob": 0.02511030044527916, "text": "Dog", "index": 0, "poolNo": 12.420066794209703, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 482.20033096947884, "textFts": "'dog':1", "contractId": "wh3Jcbv1Lq9M6JBDCA3h", "createdTime": 1712009359545, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "we... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ญ Space exploration", "slug": "space-exploration", "groupId": "7EN6VxtLzX459WLUsjQv", "createdTime": 1712009359798}, {"name": "Artemis 3 / Human Moon Landing", "slug": "artemis-3", "groupId": "JFSueHSoflV6QCBPjC3l", "createdTime": 1712009359815}, {"name": "๐ Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaL... | ["space-exploration", "artemis-3", "space", "space-colonization", "moon", "animals", "pets", "dogs-cats"] | 0.25 | 1718410747520 | 1719550974732 | True | prob-desc | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
CT7fIZPsqTvKi5iGcoq0 | what-animal-will-be-the-first-to-wa-24400de4665c | 1229.9651778166358 | What animal will be the first to walk on Mars? | 2871781140000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712009519500 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Human does not count. Must be alive not a crashed dead animal. If multiple land in the same journey, they will split by percentage (50% if two, 33% if three resolve, etc)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"},... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1712198635212 | 0 | 18 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "420ec4c9e22a", "prob": 0.01648890880106796, "text": "Dog", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.240810212390866, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 491.5381813396228, "textFts": "'dog':1", "contractId": "CT7fIZPsqTvKi5iGcoq0", "createdTime": 1712009519501, "probChanges": {"day": 2.081668... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Commercial spaceflight", "slug": "commercial-spaceflight", "groupId": "867eae28-05ff-4cae-8aca-875c18c57052", "createdTime": 1712009519745}, {"name": "๐ Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1712009519735}, {"name": "๐ญ Space exploration", "slug": "space-exploration", "g... | ["commercial-spaceflight", "space", "space-exploration", "space-colonization", "mars", "animals", "pets", "dogs-cats", "dog-markets"] | 0.25 | 1712170628012 | 1712149467684 | True | prob-desc | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1k5lDH02txJ2a9E5zSa5 | how-many-states-will-have-every-cou | 156.62665229041076 | How many states will have every county won by the 2024 Democratic presidential candidate? | 1767254340000 | xNZQawSuOdWPwqnVlFwQbIMT2x42 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712009819166 | themightysalmon | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Looking at you, HI, MA, RI, VT, NH, ??", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the Wikipedia page for the 2024 US presidential election: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 245 | themightysalmon | 1712576955293 | 0 | 7 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "491d4b010aea", "prob": 0.025848160536429805, "text": "1 or less", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.044615574923263, "userId": "xNZQawSuOdWPwqnVlFwQbIMT2x42", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 227.80628326966263, "textFts": "'1':1 'less':3", "contractId": "1k5lDH02txJ2a9E5zSa5", "createdTime": 1712009819166, "probChanges": {... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1707978226998 | 0 | [{"name": "๐บ๐ธ US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1712009819372}, {"name": "๐บ๐ธ 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1712009819394}, {"name": "๐ณ๏ธ Politics", "slug": "politics-defa... | ["us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 1712576952013 | 1712266467823 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
LwCoNb85Xd08AC7clFlR | who-will-be-the-2024-nba-finals-mvp-7ccdcc595ae0 | 38008.669155966265 | Who will be the 2024 NBA FINALS MVP? | 1718680906970 | wf1FnYlBeYU5sGaGRsMhXvNWXv82 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | 4fc2c6f923f2 | public | 1712009901257 | Dan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 318.58194111892794, "platformFee": 12.4313176116925, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718680906970 | 2350 | cloontia | 1718681971655 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLFYn6-3gJv7Zxvjj_BIY7UaZkXTWjYrn1xpD0KOjnlA4g=s96-c | 66 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "bb0d539686af", "prob": 6.291786740441115e-05, "text": "Nikola Jokic", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.0056484572091904, "userId": "wf1FnYlBeYU5sGaGRsMhXvNWXv82", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 15982.505851468242, "textFts": "'jokic':2 'nikola':1", "contractId": "LwCoNb85Xd08AC7clFlR", "resolverId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNo... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1696860314359 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1712009901547}, {"name": "NBA Finals", "slug": "nba-finals", "groupId": "c11d61b7-50e3-4e4a-af86-4c904e00ec9b", "createdTime": 1712009901558}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime... | ["basketball", "nba-finals", "nba", "nba-playoffs"] | 0.25 | 1718680565447 | 1718681969960 | {"4fc2c6f923f2": 100} | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6489803188007437 | 6cRZYJo6KK1aFiG99Ju3 | {"NO": 1310.5191713885692, "YES": 834.5159540350437} | 0.7438139290074318 | will-a-humanoid-robot-walk-on-the-m | 1532.777657104389 | Will a humanoid robot walk on the moon before an animal does | 2869793940000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.675079037897358 | False | basic | public | 1712009952443 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A humanoid robot is a robot meant to act like a human", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 0.08043134011457997, "month": 0.09752549165872959} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.91942049446081, "platformFee": 0.4562660461941709, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JamesF | 1719916615122 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 32 | 2 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ Moon", "slug": "moon", "groupId": "mcSfQitoDEt19DoPDBJc", "createdTime": 1712009952601}, {"name": "Robotics", "slug": "robotics", "groupId": "w6Q4c8YIK0W5GMslvGbd", "createdTime": 1712009952603}, {"name": "๐ญ Space exploration", "slug": "space-exploration", "groupId": "7EN6VxtLzX459WLUsjQv", "createdTime... | ["moon", "robotics", "space-exploration", "space"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719916610480 | 1713314820445 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
sex0q2o3kT7d3qPvnCTM | who-will-i-next-go-on-3-dates-with-2c2c88e89c45 | 0 | Who will I next go on 3 dates with? | 1727562169470 | BgM0xobZ0dWJoBrCpFwUC2YcgDn1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 9.141775576582349 | False | plus | public | 1712010169823 | hath | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "my profile", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.love/hath", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " to get more info on me and the candidates.", "type": "text"}... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | hath | 1712010170530 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhCbmY0Lx380026nQ3agiA_FCJPd0SWGMms_z4GDHI=s96-c | 0 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "c6d2c1ea5ce1", "prob": 0.02, "text": "Natalie (@Infinatalie)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 204.08163265306123, "userId": "BgM0xobZ0dWJoBrCpFwUC2YcgDn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10000, "textFts": "'infinatali':2 'natali':1", "contractId": "sex0q2o3kT7d3qPvnCTM", "createdTime": 1712010169824, "loverUserId": "BqOg... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1644457982313 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold.love Relationships", "slug": "manifoldlove-relationships", "groupId": "2e9a87df-94e3-458c-bc5f-81e891b13101", "createdTime": 1712010170530}] | ["manifoldlove-relationships"] | 0.25 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
HfLwkotueG3vzg7g8MVC | which-of-these-potentially-worldcha | 3066.220406030389 | Which of these potentially world-changing discoveries will happen first? | 1893495540000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712011317018 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to my judgement. Happy April Fool's but this is a very serious market. Nothing melts like real cheese melts.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.819597151169711, "platformFee": 4.100649729145887, "liquidityFee": 0} | 3 | 2615.25 | NcyRocks | 1720207560176 | 0 | 64 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "4fa3d221c206", "prob": 0.1456463180830606, "text": "AGI", "index": 0, "poolNo": 218.8054526146243, "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1283.5013375223002, "textFts": "'agi':1", "contractId": "HfLwkotueG3vzg7g8MVC", "createdTime": 1712011317018, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1644447319203 | 0 | [{"name": "Vegan", "slug": "vegan", "groupId": "Xrhp6fk47Bx8oRUyB0vJ", "createdTime": 1712011317247}, {"name": "Physics Forecasting", "slug": "physics", "groupId": "0JWy5mbK5ML8EUh5NA3z", "createdTime": 1712011317252}, {"name": "No resolution", "slug": "no-resolution", "groupId": "C06T5cKa32YfIZD4Jfhv", "createdTime": ... | ["vegan", "physics", "no-resolution"] | 0.25 | 1720207557030 | 1712494320878 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3726524671182519 | PQe9zxF7AecUjRew4FqL | {"NO": 108.91093294461444, "YES": 499.2833598641553} | 0.11471104554523329 | was-the-gun-that-killed-tupac-found | 310.1948911437942 | Was the gun that killed Tupac found in one of Diddy's homes? | 1861937940000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712011806245 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -1.3877787807814457e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.47500633244133056, "platformFee": 0.046742659609274664, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | BTE | 1716964388130 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1645484592545 | 0 | [{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1712011806486}, {"name": "P. Diddy", "slug": "p-diddy", "groupId": "ac99f4e4-db1d-4b7e-b888-07999751ab6a", "createdTime": 1712011806488}] | ["law-order", "p-diddy"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716964384663 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | U6XCABgt3F4MmqOVQweq | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-manifold-support-the-uploading | 0 | Will Manifold support the uploading of .AVIF files for banners anytime before the end of 2024? | 1712011935980 | 9waNog3HOOgEm78VedimrDbeQ5F2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.726376370574009 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1712011883680 | Rucker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if I (or someone else on Manifold) can set a .AVIF image as a market banner before the end of the year.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}]... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712011935980 | 100 | Rucker | 1712011935980 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1698428728752 | True | 0 | [{"name": "๐ Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712011883841}, {"name": "Image Formats", "slug": "image-formats", "groupId": "b55dfb1d-82e1-4506-8c3a-f86d140794a6", "createdTime": 1712011883837}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "image-formats", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712011906153 | 0.5 | 9waNog3HOOgEm78VedimrDbeQ5F2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.22930875078453447 | jst2IFUwaQVDhr03SOhq | {"NO": 921.3370046771819, "YES": 1194.4173385523652} | 0.18666821020491883 | will-there-be-another-major-bridge | 379.7905204188041 | Will there be another major bridge collapse in the US by the end of 2025? | 1767243540000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.665202397598893 | False | basic | public | 1712012229469 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-16, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-16, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.39024607657280597, "platformFee": 0.39024607657280597, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | BTE | 1715979562463 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1645484592545 | 0 | [{"name": "US Economy", "slug": "us-economy", "groupId": "36d1e8d5-2e36-481d-b3e0-42e53c37ecbb", "createdTime": 1712012229636}, {"name": "๐ Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1712012229633}, {"name": "Infrastructure", "slug": "infrastructure", "groupId": "uej971gmu... | ["us-economy", "global-macro", "infrastructure"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715979559203 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5079485238455711 | pmfuWQeUCbb2bW5PkyLK | {"NO": 125.49506692152141, "YES": 114.76368458472643} | 0.5302600061933862 | will-the-keel-be-laid-for-a-third-r | 211.29335089903856 | Will the keel be laid for a third Royal Navy Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carrier prior to January 2030? | 1798847940000 | xh2QtJ0WuKQFK3nyXsxDRxBhqYB3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712013073521 | IY | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4260277126629475, "platformFee": 1.4260277126629475, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | vitamind | 1715464258516 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1687797971742 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715464255328 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
TKNDX2tDkjdB411DvQRo | what-will-be-the-total-dollar-value | 175.00000000000006 | What will be the total dollar value of US arms sales to Taiwan in 2024? | 1735707540000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712013721938 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Numbers are in millions (so add six zeros) ranging from $500mm to $10B. You can see all historical sales below. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_US_arms_sales_to_Taiwan", "frameBorder"... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | BTE | 1712148671386 | 0 | 2 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "72fbae8b819e", "prob": 0.022410313687256746, "text": "500-592", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.4517697645734478, "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 63.32955301534697, "textFts": "'-592':2 '500':1", "contractId": "TKNDX2tDkjdB411DvQRo", "createdTime": 1712013721938, "probChanges": {... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1645484592545 | 0 | [{"name": "Taiwan", "slug": "taiwan", "groupId": "yVxGLCRxMXptN7l4Bw9p", "createdTime": 1712013722434}] | ["taiwan"] | 0.25 | 1712148667390 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
mFY2nqE5NxhDzzbt6gv5 | what-is-the-best-steam-game-you-are | 0 | What is the best Steam game you are playing in 2024? | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1712013730235 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | AmmonLam | 1712342232741 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 75 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ฎ Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1712013731254}, {"name": "Steam", "slug": "steam", "groupId": "Y5rThqV7EajtoQh906Yz", "createdTime": 1712013731261}] | ["gaming", "steam"] | 0.25 | 1712342232217 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.13501166734754924 | E0RAEXwQ2lsJjS0mg1LK | {"NO": 137.06489353982437, "YES": 159.99999999999997} | 0.11794103148091167 | will-picking-mentors-for-research-p-f65d40a45012 | 20 | Will "Picking Mentors For Research Programmes" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712013789898 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": 1.3877787807814457e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | LessWrong | 1712690289300 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1712013794134}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1712690286052 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4926453599037352 | 7JVgCArCGiQnWxaQnK1w | {"NO": 19.82090818461785, "YES": 1047.1309643233974} | 0.018048264608987525 | will-dohyungdo-kwon-be-extradited-t | 935 | Will Do-Hyung/Do Kwon be extradited to the U.S. before July 1st? | 1719892740000 | flqc12EKgGaf2f9l40XY5epeTOc2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712020790830 | Manifold Investments | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes when either Do Kwon steps foot on American soil or on the 1st of July. What ever is first. An extradition to South Korea would not count. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.47815802532528934, "month": -0.47815802532528895} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.785029053206094, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | ManifoldInvestments | 1719855540254 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1711857428488 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ช Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1712020790966}, {"name": "US Trials", "slug": "us-trials", "groupId": "xqzEQcJJARBPWzJgBSEI", "createdTime": 1712020790974}] | ["crypto-speculation", "us-trials"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719855536706 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | cT6zffDVEah2NJgV4Cfn | {"NO": 20.50197129706072, "YES": 702.371483763832} | 0 | will-ryanair-ceo-michael-oleary-rec | 766.8427739964251 | Will RyanAir CEO Michael OโLeary receive his 100M Euro bonus before the end of June 2024? | 1719763140000 | yJ6T8tKbutgPZgJ4SFgxAbP1tTb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1712021526717 | Jonah Kim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Under his bonus agreement, RyanAir CEO Michael OโLeary can earn share options worth around 100M Euros if RyanAirโs share price hits 21 Euro for 28 consecutive days or reports 2.2B Euros in annual profits after tax.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.49999999999999994, "month": -0.5000000000000004} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.924406265816628, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719825862378 | 120 | JonahKim | 1719763140000 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1707895247949 | 0 | [{"name": "Investing", "slug": "investing", "groupId": "uVOFCm1wHEnCBkk8fwY2", "createdTime": 1712021526882}, {"name": "๐ผ Business", "slug": "business", "groupId": "pmK8sntWL1SDkMm53UBR", "createdTime": 1712021526886}] | ["investing", "business"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719704719729 | 0.03 | yJ6T8tKbutgPZgJ4SFgxAbP1tTb2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
LMYYVqmIlkMZFoRyXs1S | how-many-total-riders-will-register | 10 | How many total riders will register for RAGBRAI LI by the end of the Registration Period? | 1721624340000 | krkfPzxD6RdYGDmmtcFqj1eh6wh2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712021528476 | Antilegomena | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RAGBRAI is an annual event where thousands of riders bike across the state of Iowa. RAGBRAI LI will be held July 20-27, 2024. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am asking how many total rider... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Antilegomena | 1712022580410 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqYqKpMovqXNHRPSqqh1iMaE9b45mie30Fubmm=s96-c | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "f5d2e885eede", "prob": 0.020028349406649246, "text": "10000-11000", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.3273542017427893, "userId": "krkfPzxD6RdYGDmmtcFqj1eh6wh2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 64.94641478403886, "textFts": "'-11000':2 '10000':1", "contractId": "LMYYVqmIlkMZFoRyXs1S", "createdTime": 1712021528477, "probCha... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1655181168670 | 0 | [{"name": "Biking", "slug": "biking", "groupId": "L3H6huj8SxxZWsy3dSV0", "createdTime": 1712021528715}, {"name": "๐๏ธ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1712021528725}, {"name": "RAGBRAI", "slug": "ragbrai", "groupId": "207d4716-54c1-42cf-82b8-977fe64e17f5", "createdTim... | ["biking", "sports-default", "ragbrai", "iowa"] | 0.25 | 1712022576719 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24304404510929672 | 92suNN3Yl0LzDs5f2R3q | {"NO": 116.1216159452922, "YES": 3708.374208278597} | 0 | will-vaushs-main-youtube-channel-fa-fa3ddd7edf82 | 6240.774339100335 | Will Vaush's main youtube channel fall below 449k subs in April 2024? | 1714546740000 | foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1712021583131 | Punished Furry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the bleeding continue?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently at 449k, last 1k sub loss was on 3/27/24", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": nu... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.99938368402983, "platformFee": 9.99938368402983, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714546857291 | 420 | PunishedFurry | 1714546740000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3go4lmW16N7oUihjjm8IiRRoMb5Dw2cMM1P1-g=s96-c | 18 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1666746014983 | 0 | [{"name": "Vaush", "slug": "vaush", "groupId": "cwTgBqyCE2jc7IFwpV73", "createdTime": 1712021583280}, {"name": "๐ฎ Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1712021583292}, {"name": "๐ณ๏ธ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 17... | ["vaush", "destinygg", "politics-default", "youtube"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714374239426 | 1713593770627 | 0.01 | foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6427689646027286 | wwkcz8xVuFHz9s4PMeUd | {"NO": 2878.041274882341, "YES": 180.30406457457266} | 1 | will-vaushs-main-youtube-channel-re | 4922.129682673112 | Will Vaush's main youtube channel reach 450k subs in April 2024? | 1713546461977 | foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2256884032200808 | True | play | YES | public | 1712021661692 | Punished Furry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the bleeding continue or will it stop?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently at 449k, last 1k sub loss was on 3/27/24", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "at... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.035543117458747386} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.91196261493665, "platformFee": 13.91196261493665, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713546461977 | 540 | PunishedFurry | 1713583114551 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3go4lmW16N7oUihjjm8IiRRoMb5Dw2cMM1P1-g=s96-c | 26 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1666746014983 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ณ๏ธ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1712021661966}, {"name": "๐ฎ Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1712021661968}, {"name": "Vaush", "slug": "vaush", "groupId": "cwTgBqyCE2jc7IFwpV73", "createdTime": 17... | ["politics-default", "destinygg", "vaush", "youtube"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713544117084 | 1713583113894 | 0.97 | foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3571606035517667 | UNLbcYfSuu5E86MRMZ5P | {"NO": 66.1283456988067, "YES": 3637.3401493808233} | 0 | will-vaushs-main-youtube-channel-re-35585bdb9254 | 3453.0153116859115 | Will Vaush's main youtube channel reach 451k subs in April 2024? | 1714546740000 | foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1712021726548 | Punished Furry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the bleeding continue or will it stop?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently at 449k, last 1k sub loss was on 3/27/24", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "at... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.001699921133852, "platformFee": 8.001699921133852, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714546894767 | 300 | PunishedFurry | 1714546903346 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3go4lmW16N7oUihjjm8IiRRoMb5Dw2cMM1P1-g=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1666746014983 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ฎ Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1712021726697}, {"name": "Vaush", "slug": "vaush", "groupId": "cwTgBqyCE2jc7IFwpV73", "createdTime": 1712021726703}, {"name": "YouTube", "slug": "youtube", "groupId": "bbIsp5bNcwHpSK9qu9mj", "createdTime": 1712021726701}, ... | ["destinygg", "vaush", "youtube", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714544848809 | 1714546901211 | 0.01 | foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.25622305567958376 | 2FQ3R5ijCuDnmMxvSZDw | {"NO": 127.3812253649586, "YES": 1887.832143618074} | 0 | will-vaushs-main-youtube-channel-fa-2699bf229451 | 1871 | Will Vaush's main youtube channel fall below 448k subs in April 2024? | 1714546740000 | foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1712021779691 | Punished Furry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the bleeding continue?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently at 449k, last 1k sub loss was on 3/27/24", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": nu... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.368638235798112, "platformFee": 2.368638235798112, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714546850892 | 320 | PunishedFurry | 1714546740000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3go4lmW16N7oUihjjm8IiRRoMb5Dw2cMM1P1-g=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1666746014983 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ฎ Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1712021779845}, {"name": "YouTube", "slug": "youtube", "groupId": "bbIsp5bNcwHpSK9qu9mj", "createdTime": 1712021779843}, {"name": "Vaush", "slug": "vaush", "groupId": "cwTgBqyCE2jc7IFwpV73", "createdTime": 1712021779834}, ... | ["destinygg", "youtube", "vaush", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713869027541 | 0.02 | foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2 |
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