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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
pmNKKEAzs7YKOhtUT2UX | manifold-top-referrers-leaderboard | 79.14907589011361 | Manifold Top Referrers Leaderboard 2024 Megamarket | 1735707540000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712361482652 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5041156252541968, "platformFee": 0.45292038152586184, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 265 | Bayesian | 1719073001193 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "4596d67f879b", "prob": 0.5707106781186548, "text": "memestiny is king (#1)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 48.82524218523383, "userId": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 36.726411318404864, "textFts": "'1':4 'king':3 'memestini':1", "contractId": "pmNKKEAzs7YKOhtUT2UX", "createdTime": 171236... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "Leaderboard", "slug": "leaderboard", "groupId": "650ffe1a-29d1-40cf-9072-d08ee67f6fe2", "createdTime": 1712361482887}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712361482879}, {"name": "Referrals", "slug": "referrals", "groupId": "eb881c01-54a... | ["leaderboard", "manifold-6748e065087e", "referrals"] | 0.25 | 1719072998093 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.355121576900262 | JoJ3sExtj1Oacuus66kU | {"NO": 169.04822115907814, "YES": 733.3411517113365} | 0 | will-my-canadian-permanent-residenc | 614.8073346916555 | Will my Canadian permanent residency travel document (PRTD) be processed by Saturday April 13th? | 1713053014405 | zDyNfg5Of5dxLEhV0BfNkJCqsqu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.448678740733068 | True | play | NO | public | 1712362638162 | RA | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Application submitted March 29th.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Meet all criteria - previously had PR card before it was stolen.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Have sent all requi... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.11264252459555929} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713053014405 | 300 | RA_3 | 1713053014405 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKNn8FeeuSMBtIbnXnG1C8B4A6fkmnU7MDA3PS-BM7c=s96-c | 11 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1709050330982 | 0 | [{"name": "Canada", "slug": "canada", "groupId": "SkT5CgJLsfHhVpK8V2C6", "createdTime": 1712362638301}, {"name": "Immigration", "slug": "immigration", "groupId": "a73d087a-86cc-4035-ba70-bea6f101c812", "createdTime": 1712362638296}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "c... | ["canada", "immigration", "science-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713025193222 | 1712999706320 | 0.11 | zDyNfg5Of5dxLEhV0BfNkJCqsqu2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
BDQuNCOiTcbK0SVTANsP | what-spacefaringrelated-technologie | 2610.127055773077 | What spacefaring-related technologies will humans develop before the first human travels to a different star? | 8047065540000 | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712364184842 | Pat Scott🩴 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The technologies can be explicitly sci-fi-inspired, but obviously don't have to be. Add your own! Unrelated or trivial answers will be N/A'd.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All developed tech... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.759313106464889, "platformFee": 1.96402421744924, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2050 | Stralor | 1719710769801 | 0 | 33 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "94625350b505", "prob": 0.8073532118998058, "text": "Cryogenics", "index": 0, "poolNo": 241.83551087026706, "userId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 57.705640766693676, "textFts": "'cryogen':1", "contractId": "BDQuNCOiTcbK0SVTANsP", "createdTime": 1712364184842, "probChanges": {"da... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1677017053373 | 0 | [{"name": "🔭 Space exploration", "slug": "space-exploration", "groupId": "7EN6VxtLzX459WLUsjQv", "createdTime": 1712364185122}, {"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1712364185126}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTim... | ["space-exploration", "futurism", "space", "space-colonization"] | 0.25 | 1719710766688 | 1715371488956 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1024358123202993 | KXei1viRiLKhdTWsRgFB | {"NO": 878.2225415580591, "YES": 1718.1175155015596} | 0.05512065501756446 | will-anyone-related-to-any-trump-tr | 1309.146706462032 | Will anyone related to any Trump trial be killed for political motivations related to the trial in 2024? | 1735711140000 | HBFt77FEJING7HsvkAywz5Y1Fmt2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.272726054438548 | False | basic | public | 1712364237617 | Noah | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve YES if anyone who is a judge, jury member, lawyer, defendant, plantiff, or otherwise involved with one of Trump's trials is killed in 2024 and that killing involves political motivations related to the trial. If a killing... | BINARY | {"day": -6.938893903907228e-18, "week": -0.0005776908345952805, "month": -0.0005776908345952389} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.06569243439317567, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Noah1 | 1719864615762 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKJwFnQN8HIH6Jd9snKrXij62lTfW7yDni_tRTd2ku7WA=s96-c | 21 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1699627416651 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1712364237750}, {"name": "Trump indictment(s)", "slug": "trump-indictments", "groupId": "l8rzwticUu7jFUpOZnY2", "createdTime": 1712364237753}, {"name": "Trial of the Century", "slug": "trial-of-the-century", "groupId"... | ["us-politics", "trump-indictments", "trial-of-the-century", "law-order", "donald-trump"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719864597687 | 1712393349501 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
gzN8Rzi5KRrR9mOXimzU | how-will-donald-trumps-georgia-elec | 2905.1781870384507 | How will Donald Trump's Georgia election interference trial end? | 1730444340000 | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712364459785 | Dan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trump and 18 others", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://apnews.com/article/trump-georgia-indictment-meadows-guiliani-084efc6796becef3714196cee3854cf6", "class": "break-anywhere ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 31.41952266023792, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | DanMan314 | 1719880735055 | 0 | 25 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "00c8ca7cfc69", "prob": 0.7460659025898336, "text": "Guilty (of at least one crime) by jury verdict", "index": 0, "poolNo": 663.5163625136379, "userId": "cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 225.83719219293727, "textFts": "'crime':6 'guilti':1 'juri':8 'least':4 'one':5 'verdict':9", "con... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1673046794414 | 0 | [{"name": "Georgia Election Interference Case", "slug": "georgia-election-interference-case-7245d89f17e9", "groupId": "9dbb3bd2-5fd1-4ab5-9c8e-88518a68ca29", "createdTime": 1712364460044}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1712364460054}, {"name": "Fan... | ["georgia-election-interference-case-7245d89f17e9", "us-politics", "fani-willis", "politics-default", "donald-trump"] | 0.25 | 1719880731857 | True | prob-desc | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2QueWzeLLLLI50Si3wPw | how-will-donald-trumps-federal-elec | 317.16952303462256 | How will Donald Trump's federal election interference trial end? | 1730444340000 | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712364541087 | Dan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trump ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "was charged in August", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://apnews.com/article/trump-indicted-jan-6-investigation-special-counsel-debb59bb7a4d9... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.5542053587035944, "platformFee": 1.5748002049226792, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | DanMan314 | 1718109370601 | 0 | 13 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "afd1b8199398", "prob": 0.6041306472620778, "text": "Guilty (of at least one crime) by jury verdict", "index": 0, "poolNo": 465.6347776729346, "userId": "cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 305.11701216456663, "textFts": "'crime':6 'guilti':1 'juri':8 'least':4 'one':5 'verdict':9", "con... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1673046794414 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1712364541329}, {"name": "Trial of the Century", "slug": "trial-of-the-century", "groupId": "usp0cQDi8y1YG1CCmpfn", "createdTime": 1712364541331}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR... | ["politics-default", "trial-of-the-century", "us-politics", "donald-trump", "special-prosecutor-jack-smith"] | 0.25 | 1718109367430 | True | prob-desc | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
pGHlCl596SmrZP6QLWs1 | how-will-donald-trumps-classified-d | 1568.4649736218557 | How will Donald Trump's classified documents trial end? | 1730444340000 | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712364648645 | Dan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trump was charged in June by special counsel Jack Smith", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://apnews.com/article/trump-justice-department-indictment-classified-documents-miami-831... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.947693636233674, "platformFee": 0.561271254148916, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1125 | DanMan314 | 1719970394800 | 0 | 40 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "df1062de34e8", "prob": 0.669276697129372, "text": "Guilty (of at least one crime) by jury verdict", "index": 0, "poolNo": 748.8307770120372, "userId": "cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 370.0349779498261, "textFts": "'crime':6 'guilti':1 'juri':8 'least':4 'one':5 'verdict':9", "contr... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1673046794414 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1712364652049}, {"name": "Special Prosecutor Jack Smith", "slug": "special-prosecutor-jack-smith", "groupId": "m0fhGu93WNHo2BN3QCvA", "createdTime": 1712364652051}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupI... | ["us-politics", "special-prosecutor-jack-smith", "donald-trump", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 1719970390913 | 1712423626391 | True | prob-desc | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.25995072319050155 | lkmVQIyZcdhEugmm7Zm4 | {"NO": 970.9520496215526, "YES": 1002.8301260218402} | 0.2537844886827774 | if-trump-is-elected-in-2024-will-uk | 428.18652916237994 | If Trump is elected in 2024, will Ukraine win the war with Russia? | 1767247140000 | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.604043071625682 | False | basic | public | 1712364810884 | Plasma Ballin' | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Trump wins the 2024 POTUS election, then this market will resolve the same way as the market linked below. Otherwise, it resolves N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/chrisjbillington/will... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.00770784634855487} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8568230783544145, "platformFee": 0.32542335232499825, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | PlasmaBallin | 1718054561075 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668786016313 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1712364811025}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1712364811014}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "groupI... | ["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "ukraine"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718054557960 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4015010111471927 | 50V4w7CgVdWDiV7rg8hM | {"NO": 972.277890265439, "YES": 1029.7241960884626} | 0.3877881020496632 | if-biden-is-elected-in-2024-will-uk | 579.4134707619239 | If Biden is elected in 2024, will Ukraine win the war with Russia? | 1767247140000 | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.704062738932365 | False | basic | public | 1712364861023 | Plasma Ballin' | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Biden wins the 2024 POTUS election, then this market will resolve the same way as the market linked below. Otherwise, it resolves N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/chrisjbillington/will... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.011469052439620542} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2853355218414972, "platformFee": 0.4811451643171403, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | PlasmaBallin | 1718054544649 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668786016313 | 0 | [{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1712364861193}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1712364861188}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupI... | ["ukraine", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718054541461 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
I6nbf52WMQ06zBJ65ozX | in-jet-lag-the-game-season-nine-tru | 0 | In Jet Lag: The Game Season Nine Truth Statements, how should "We get an episode of Choo Choo Chew" resolve? | 1713023940000 | 2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1712364896518 | Josh Wilkes | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/jet-lag-the-game-season-nine-truth", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/jet-lag-the-game-season-nine-truth", "class": "break-anywhere hover:under... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713023940776 | JoshuaWilkes | 1712365221754 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1662006482315 | 0 | [{"name": "Jet Lag: The Game", "slug": "jet-lag-the-game", "groupId": "sATnBDFFC3pK7wcamkkR", "createdTime": 1712364896701}] | ["jet-lag-the-game"] | 0.25 | ["f05d0d768fa3"] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AKMDazsfvTz7NDBBPjxd | who-will-win-the-2024-united-states-eade2353d6f2 | 493.8281463140323 | Who will win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont? | 1730955600000 | 3ovGrYGPkpWNszlR2rIBdknDFtp1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712365098569 | Unown | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market's closing date and... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.09566100057527013, "platformFee": 0.09566100057527013, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Unown | 1713833393965 | 0 | 17 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "8fe49813318e", "prob": 0.009918874221867182, "text": "No one", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.697148028888981, "userId": "3ovGrYGPkpWNszlR2rIBdknDFtp1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 568.6773123639075, "textFts": "'one':2", "contractId": "AKMDazsfvTz7NDBBPjxd", "createdTime": 1712365098569, "probChanges": {"day": -4.5... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1704958183293 | 0 | [{"name": "US Senate", "slug": "us-senate", "groupId": "Scdb6UrBLNsi1zvLGSD5", "createdTime": 1712365098794}, {"name": "US Congressional Elections 2024", "slug": "us-congressional-elections-2024", "groupId": "UpLaDRTMY4UNum0OacuT", "createdTime": 1712365098795}, {"name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "groupId": "i5... | ["us-senate", "us-congressional-elections-2024", "elections", "us-politics", "2024-us-election", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 1713833390644 | True | prob-desc | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
DgIt29mqzrDP4fqpnxcP | in-2024-how-many-regular-season-gam | 405.29129456108683 | In 2024, how many regular season games will the New York Yankees win? | 1727636700000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712366075952 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The results will be verified at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "mlb.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://mlb.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:u... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.165666228080628, "platformFee": 0.21208516683737366, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 240 | ovals | 1718108731927 | 0 | 8 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "b950742e3374", "prob": 0.0007642835090612019, "text": "2-6", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.3711722301813005, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 485.2761376760933, "textFts": "'-6':2 '2':1", "contractId": "DgIt29mqzrDP4fqpnxcP", "createdTime": 1712366075952, "probChanges": {"day": ... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | [{"name": "⚾ Baseball", "slug": "baseball", "groupId": "786nRQzgVyUnuUtaLTGW", "createdTime": 1712366076292}, {"name": "MLB", "slug": "mlb", "groupId": "RFwfANk54JSXOwj4qwsW", "createdTime": 1712366076299}, {"name": "New York Yankees", "slug": "new-york-yankees", "groupId": "ac304e44-16b3-4187-b756-96adc11dbf64", "crea... | ["baseball", "mlb", "new-york-yankees"] | 0.25 | 1718108728281 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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LRK6mu7lEi6bLOzfEDnp | top-3-bestselling-video-games-at-th | 584.4059123179611 | Top 3 Best-selling video games at the end of 2030 [33% each] | 1925009940000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712379309172 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_games", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_games", "cla... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.2152686791436866, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Bayesian | 1719073150749 | 0 | 15 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e16018157b2c", "prob": 0.2281088641508592, "text": "Minecraft", "index": 0, "poolNo": 128.6042173153326, "userId": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 435.18017481719113, "textFts": "'minecraft':1", "contractId": "LRK6mu7lEi6bLOzfEDnp", "createdTime": 1712379309172, "probChanges": {"da... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1712379309516}, {"name": "Video Games", "slug": "video-games", "groupId": "9FaZmHrfS8IcDJyu6pUD", "createdTime": 1712379309624}] | ["technology-default", "video-games"] | 0.25 | 1719073147403 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
m7tcx1Qkf1ecRZ404ry2 | bestselling-pc-game-at-the-end-of-2 | 171 | Best-selling PC game at the end of 2027 | 1830315540000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712380052379 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_PC_games", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_PC_games", "class": "... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4242548664986521, "platformFee": 0.15279163157402795, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 280 | Bayesian | 1719073161337 | 0 | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a12a07c067c7", "prob": 0.48660507564139205, "text": "PUBG: Battlegrounds", "index": 0, "poolNo": 100.9195729887351, "userId": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 106.47565990256479, "textFts": "'battleground':2 'pubg':1", "contractId": "m7tcx1Qkf1ecRZ404ry2", "createdTime": 17123800523... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "Video Games", "slug": "video-games", "groupId": "9FaZmHrfS8IcDJyu6pUD", "createdTime": 1712380052828}, {"name": "PC", "slug": "pc", "groupId": "iBKiSfw0lMcI5PRUIgro", "createdTime": 1712380052853}] | ["video-games", "pc"] | 0.25 | 1719073157743 | 1714640854828 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
BYnU5eySFprsKbKSWeNz | which-of-these-outlier-performances | 0 | Which of these outlier performances in sports / games do you find the most impressive? | 1735685940000 | vcRnogNTojb2z8RejfxaYDwYs6B3 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1712380997293 | A. Dings | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I love reading about freak outliers in niche sports and games and am curious to find out which of these other people find most remarkable.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | ADings | 1712414205291 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKyQmiXuUz7vNTKFEGxzvoGhgYnrN03vcCFlsSwpc7SDg=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1709564544314 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1712380997676}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.25 | 1712414204402 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
FrTMsSjgHKcSacOP6oj0 | fide-candidates-tournament-round-3 | 27841.320482324893 | FIDE Candidates Tournament - Round 3 prop bets | 1712444095719 | FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1712389394349 | Weezing | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Options are for Open section unless specified otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712444095719 | 2550 | Weezing | 1712491201508 | 0 | 19 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3e778de8628a", "prob": 0.9975504942489558, "text": "At least one of the players who got an early lead loses a game (Caruana, Vidit, Gukesh, Nepo)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2003.4399347599347, "userId": "FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.919487956106744, "textFts": "'caruana':15 'earli... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700212225777 | 0 | [{"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1712389394761}, {"name": "Chess candidates 2024", "slug": "chess-candidates-2024", "groupId": "09ea3682-1d3f-4f69-8ce4-b68d4fe77f12", "createdTime": 1712389394764}] | ["chess", "chess-candidates-2024"] | 0.25 | 1712443976292 | 1712491201018 | 0.06 | FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1 | False | liquidity | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4494620907361189 | E3a52uECK8y1bR7eHexx | {"NO": 2411.3071900202867, "YES": 19.884889635725813} | 1 | will-biden-hit-53-odds-of-winning-t | 2245.989841295868 | Will Biden hit 53% odds of winning the election by the Fourth of July? 🇺🇸 | 1713990566385 | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.7641416706946735 | True | play | YES | public | 1712389550301 | Dan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "According to this market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For any amoun... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5669083402093013} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.097771182667515, "platformFee": 8.097771182667515, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713990566385 | 280 | DanMan314 | 1713990566385 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1673046794414 | 0 | [{"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1712389550440}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1712389550438}] | ["the-life-of-biden", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713990561762 | 1713990549302 | 0.99 | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
EPFLAV171l8evlxm3wQg | who-will-win-round-3-of-fide-candid | 1659.8609420526254 | Who will win Round 3 of FIDE Candidates? | 1712444549228 | FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1712389871934 | Weezing | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Options are Player A (eg. Firouzja) vs Player B (eg. Caruana)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to 100% i... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712444549228 | 440.5 | Weezing | 1712444549228 | 0 | 5 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "e530fe40033c", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Nijat Abasov vs Hikaru Nakamura", "index": 0, "poolNo": 96.50843301453774, "userId": "FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 96.82317387232314, "textFts": "'abasov':2 'hikaru':4 'nakamura':5 'nijat':1 'vs':3", "contractId": "EPFLAV171l8evlxm3wQg", "reso... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700212225777 | 0 | [{"name": "Fabiano Caruana", "slug": "fabiano-caruana", "groupId": "27721d12-cc84-4987-9b56-8cfc01247ad5", "createdTime": 1712389872248}, {"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1712389872252}, {"name": "Chess candidates 2024", "slug": "chess-candidates-2024", "groupId": ... | ["fabiano-caruana", "chess", "chess-candidates-2024"] | 0.25 | 1712443854476 | 0.01 | FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5289450840539369 | vHgWjP8xwUXXOdlBM4wq | {"NO": 1253.7189080239668, "YES": 815.8732144547878} | 0.6330956909209562 | simultaneouspredictor-chess-will-wh | 589.343186251085 | Manifold plays simultaneous predictor chess, will white win? | 1735685940000 | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.61297406388877 | False | basic | public | 1712390238496 | Kongo Landwalker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifold plays white.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Kongo plays black.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictor chess.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBrea... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.01129969133456854} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.819568514330236, "platformFee": 2.6637185841059163, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | KongoLandwalker | 1720216579925 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1681038287526 | 0 | [{"name": "Board Games", "slug": "board-games", "groupId": "Hu6z8BYs5Xz3ZRyai8MF", "createdTime": 1712390238641}, {"name": "Manifold plays games", "slug": "manifold-plays-games", "groupId": "78e52912-aecd-4c18-84a2-8010db3ac3fc", "createdTime": 1712390238651}, {"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVP... | ["board-games", "manifold-plays-games", "chess", "manifold-plays-chess"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719084815021 | 1720216578489 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9meDbgd9ZymQPgxNPOlj | which-country-will-win-the-internat | 364.1895319384441 | Which country will win the International Physicists Tournament 2024? | 1712482693613 | xsdECfPlLTT54Oo7CFgJdWD6cx72 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1712390569041 | Malte | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Presentations are going on rn: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vl3kmfSo-ws", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vl3kmfSo-ws", "class": "break-anywhere hover:un... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712482693613 | 392.5 | Malte | 1712482693613 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco9M5mYAp47nKgXrGOmDD4EqzDU2QlC8GNyEAjGofM=s96-c | 6 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "f86ef333e0ea", "prob": 0.77, "text": "Germany", "index": 0, "poolNo": 174.14973858791802, "userId": "xsdECfPlLTT54Oo7CFgJdWD6cx72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 53.031213967772565, "textFts": "'germani':1", "contractId": "9meDbgd9ZymQPgxNPOlj", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "xsdECfPlLTT54Oo7CFgJdWD6cx72",... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1660307888908 | 0 | [{"name": "Physics", "slug": "physics-a6878c3ad095", "groupId": "92473248-f029-4aca-bc21-094d95940b06", "createdTime": 1712392719979}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1712392725559}] | ["physics-a6878c3ad095", "science-default"] | 0.25 | 1712477941953 | 1712482664454 | 0.23 | xsdECfPlLTT54Oo7CFgJdWD6cx72 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4873920614787306 | gHDCnNLnvr3Ywt3Fo7Vh | {"NO": 794.7615319625297, "YES": 1227.0193591561663} | 0.3811326301471648 | will-ben-shapiro-and-candace-owens | 1580.761775084456 | Will Ben Shapiro and Candace Owens debate in 2024? | 1735718340000 | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.649417284963487 | False | basic | public | 1712391610356 | jackson polack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "voice debate. Doesn't have to be released in 2024, just happen", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.8234721261916844, "platformFee": 3.589675318490222, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | jacksonpolack | 1717031758133 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c | 46 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1670234252125 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1712391623185}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1712391626438}, {"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "c... | ["politics-default", "culture-default", "destinygg"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717031754621 | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4647089841877521 | 8Yfi7dfcgNun48nuyY52 | {"NO": 228.3211334165833, "YES": 350.23160090387825} | 0.3614120433804079 | will-any-member-of-the-kennedy-fami | 110 | Will any member of the Kennedy family, other than RFK Jr, run for POTUS between now and the 2036 election? | 2109416340000 | RxMw49kYVSaIiHROsvl0jshD1Ut1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712394071358 | Andrew Donnellan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if a member of the Kennedy family (by birth, not marriage), other than RFK Jr, formally announces a campaign for the US presidency that goes beyond the point of an exploratory committee.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-16, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-16, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 280 | AndrewDonnellan | 1712659303853 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocItedN2IPa14n99TxyqrEBwv0Wqgua40SSX6ImGYzhfQd0=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1710102581424 | 0 | [{"name": "Robert F. Kennedy Jr.", "slug": "robert-f-kennedy-jr", "groupId": "lzuhs9uc93209ES3QX5S", "createdTime": 1712394071614}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1712394071613}, {"name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "groupId": "i5JOzjrK5ZMHPSk... | ["robert-f-kennedy-jr", "us-politics", "elections", "future-us-presidents"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712659300534 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4543182892471431 | QQEcOby621iKUKK39rIY | {"NO": 140.82177450576467, "YES": 291.6037286151176} | 0.28676691429401274 | will-global-co2-emissions-in-2024-d | 220 | Will global CO2 emissions in 2024 deplete the remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5°C? | 1722977940000 | D3wFR2hkO4M7ZqrKIYqHzrjSGD22 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712395074978 | :3 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | 36698 | 1716214618949 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJQxvJXapo9U58rsDbL0-RPgyMQBB5DJhEQRCBETRR5rdYP4-ot=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712320079738 | 0 | [{"name": "🪸 Climate", "slug": "climate", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw", "createdTime": 1712395075127}, {"name": "CCS - carbon capture and sequestration", "slug": "ccs-carbon-capture-and-sequestratio", "groupId": "fiu91SdWf72SNNrvw5vA", "createdTime": 1712395075131}, {"name": "Climate change", "slug": "climate-cha... | ["climate", "ccs-carbon-capture-and-sequestratio", "climate-change"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712476005594 | 1716214617459 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1663231897298354 | Zo2wXKHaKi1a3hDh04O3 | {"NO": 147.01441287182334, "YES": 105.68402865854499} | 0.21723783402136435 | will-towards-monosemanticity-decomp | 20 | Will "Towards Monosemanticity: Decomposing Language..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712395093493 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | LessWrong | 1712690254185 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1712395093674}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1712690250874 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
tm2D5wPgHIAlpZJmJR4E | which-teams-will-make-it-to-the-mle | 110 | Which teams will make it to the M-league 2024 finals? | 1716373960810 | HX4vEPB06WXFQwuC4zt0v5imDew2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1712395937549 | Porple | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Semifinals start next week so I figured I'd make a market for it.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only 4 teams make it to the finals, and there are 6 currently competing. They each have a star... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716373960810 | 210 | Porple | 1716373960810 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ_YDFud2MOStPRfBUK2YcGf75PzmZPKYFxG90vHQ7Q_-I=s96-c | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "ebf1a35a7e6c", "prob": 0.9, "text": "Pirates", "index": 0, "poolNo": 94.99999999999999, "userId": "HX4vEPB06WXFQwuC4zt0v5imDew2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10.555555555555559, "textFts": "'pirat':1", "contractId": "tm2D5wPgHIAlpZJmJR4E", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "HX4vEPB06WXFQwuC4zt0v5imDew2", "cr... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697583545916 | 0 | [{"name": "🇯🇵 Japan", "slug": "japan", "groupId": "H5HOzbMpcIAwGLGICGAQ", "createdTime": 1712395939241}, {"name": "Mahjong", "slug": "mahjong-e6d90797cefd", "groupId": "fea32b5d-e6d2-4d19-99a8-0def1ca1f0e7", "createdTime": 1712395939244}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQARE... | ["japan", "mahjong-e6d90797cefd", "sports-default"] | 0.25 | 1712436909641 | 1712395996318 | 0.5 | HX4vEPB06WXFQwuC4zt0v5imDew2 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
fQa1fVn7BeuH72kWQVHe | premier-league-weekend-prop-bets-ap | 17555.64280426237 | Premier League Weekend Prop Bets, Apr 6-7 | 1712518072203 | 6C8eyp1HS4Qqfpn2ver4UmvM2Xy1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1712400730390 | Tyler | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All bets should be affected by at least one of the 10 PL games happening this weekend (April 6-7) and should be written in a way that can be resolved once", "type": "text"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href":... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712518072203 | 1400 | Tyler31 | 1712714076652 | 0 | 18 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a9dc21c2a128", "prob": 0, "text": "Man City ends the weekend on top of the table", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.21073620697781, "userId": "6C8eyp1HS4Qqfpn2ver4UmvM2Xy1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1032.6771320613948, "textFts": "'citi':2 'end':3 'man':1 'tabl':10 'top':7 'weekend':5", "contractId": "fQa1fVn7BeuH7... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1645086356220 | 0 | [{"name": "Premier League", "slug": "premiere-league", "groupId": "5gsW3dPR3ySBRZCodrgm", "createdTime": 1712400730695}, {"name": "Prop Bets", "slug": "prop-bets", "groupId": "64e721a5-ed88-4480-9b00-c00a7d4d1e2d", "createdTime": 1712400730704}, {"name": "Premier League 2023-2024", "slug": "premier-league-20232024", "g... | ["premiere-league", "prop-bets", "premier-league-20232024"] | 0.25 | 1712516595691 | 1712714075421 | 0 | 6C8eyp1HS4Qqfpn2ver4UmvM2Xy1 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48501838358085414 | vec3jj35bfVfxdSEoQtA | {"NO": 145.51671581588516, "YES": 175.11533422041694} | 0.4390303514101191 | will-manifold-users-be-unable-to-pl | 95 | Will manifold users be unable to place a bet for at least 20 minutes on election night | 1731128340000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712401948308 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Outage must be caused by a bug or site overflow. Wouldn’t resolve if manifold staff shut down betting to do maintenance.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.1535733303889916, "platformFee": 0.1535733303889916, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | JamesF | 1714612561896 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712401948470}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714612558595 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5879770734469655 | uZVQ73Tfe5Sl48V7XMeJ | {"NO": 9695.707800394204, "YES": 205.58453456164253} | 1 | will-iran-engage-in-significant-att | 18559.47536022147 | Will Iran engage in significant attack on Israel to avenge death of Rev Guard General? (Expires 6pm EDT April 15, 2024) | 1713049013817 | 91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9280485056634027 | True | basic | YES | public | 1712402589580 | Bruce | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.011442259026093415} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713049013817 | 1205 | Bruce54df | 1713049013817 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJohJG8pV6APMRLAdPO5Up_LhSInhyxI1tRfhbmvspk=s96-c | 81 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697633597735 | 0 | [{"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "groupId": "cea99c1c-afb9-49b2-adfa-9be739adce10", "createdTime": 1712402589813}, {"name": "Arab-Israeli Conflict", "slug": "arabisraeli-conflict", "groupId": "aheUmZtjkKBkeiXwIFhI", "createdTime": 1712402589819}, {"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "... | ["israelhamas-conflict-2023", "arabisraeli-conflict", "israel"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713048358918 | 1713047662471 | 0.99 | 91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MpJaWjxevjUECiO8wTM6 | if-manifold-holds-a-manifold-tv-eve | 52.00000000000005 | If manifold holds a manifold TV event for the presidential election, how many viewers will there be at its peak. | 1731128340000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712402772583 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to max if over 520 resolves N/A if they do not hold a manifold TV event.", "type": "text"}]}]} | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3762939363206017, "platformFee": 0.3762939363206017, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | JamesF | 1715024160204 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 4 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "e8a86efbdb26", "prob": 0.009812614796123323, "text": "20-30", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.9924871468790049, "userId": "nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 100.1515165157439, "textFts": "'-30':2 '20':1", "contractId": "MpJaWjxevjUECiO8wTM6", "createdTime": 1712402772583, "probChanges": {"day... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Politics", "slug": "manifold-politics", "groupId": "69181a86-ec5b-4798-85f0-6694253168d9", "createdTime": 1712402772957}] | ["manifold-politics"] | 0.25 | 1715024156485 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
echBoGXJOjNFWfFw6J26 | who-will-gain-rating-during-fide-ca | 4007.7359592397 | Who will gain rating during FIDE Candidates tournament? | 1713803298685 | FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1712403443438 | Weezing | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Starting ratings are in brackets. Live ratings can be seen here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://2700chess.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://2700chess.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.948253252487987, "platformFee": 9.948253252487987, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713803298685 | 740 | Weezing | 1713803298685 | 0 | 13 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "82585bd8ee66", "prob": 0.99, "text": "Fabiano Caruana (2803)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 341.6372904351043, "userId": "FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.4508817215667023, "textFts": "'2803':3 'caruana':2 'fabiano':1", "contractId": "echBoGXJOjNFWfFw6J26", "resolution": "YES", "resolverI... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700212225777 | 0 | [{"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1712403443638}, {"name": "Hikaru Nakamura", "slug": "hikaru-nakamura", "groupId": "f91b8ef0-4e6e-415c-8cd5-e3ebd5667168", "createdTime": 1712403443640}, {"name": "Chess candidates 2024", "slug": "chess-candidates-2024", "groupId": ... | ["chess", "hikaru-nakamura", "chess-candidates-2024", "fabiano-caruana"] | 0.25 | 1713803244649 | 0.07 | FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1 | False | prob-desc | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
cDv5yD6yGS8FvDeTA2Z2 | conditional-on-x-being-the-tipping | 307.63169443279753 | Conditional on X being the tipping point state, will Biden win it? | 1732255140000 | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712403534925 | Plasma Ballin' | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A common way to forecast election results is to estimate the probability of each state being the tipping point state and the probability of each candidate winning each state, multiply them together, and sum them. However, the probabilities of each ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9325064925178308, "platformFee": 1.9325064925178308, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 685 | PlasmaBallin | 1715006286721 | 0 | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "27c5bf1641dd", "prob": 0.776148915356396, "text": "Maine", "index": 0, "poolNo": 69.82713022623572, "userId": "eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20.13902039857337, "textFts": "'main':1", "contractId": "cDv5yD6yGS8FvDeTA2Z2", "createdTime": 1712403534925, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "wee... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668786016313 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1712403535158}, {"name": "Conditional markets", "slug": "conditional-markets", "groupId": "N0398xzZ9qTQFgy6Zny0", "createdTime": 1712403535163}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "... | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "conditional-markets", "the-life-of-biden", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 1715006283476 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.561423035069185 | 72gbNekyaCeyHDsk5NpG | {"NO": 1106.5083008321797, "YES": 912.1574169106023} | 0.6082808234739723 | will-jon-tester-outperform-biden-by | 616.410248083154 | Will Jon Tester outperform Biden by double digits? | 1735707540000 | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.746055260833673 | False | basic | public | 1712404158026 | Semiotic Rivalry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "in percentage margin vs the Republican ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.00828082347397241, "month": 0.008280823473972965} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.8095744873127146, "platformFee": 1.2192829839969734, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SemioticRivalry | 1720159298732 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1669063432873 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1712404158298}, {"name": "2024 US Election", "slug": "2024-us-election", "groupId": "ys6IcrjWOTkhcjR3JLFk", "createdTime": 1712404158299}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-p... | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "2024-us-election", "us-politics", "2024-us-senate-election", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720159295562 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4G9pA4WHrWFlbBi33zKz | what-states-will-abolish-daylight-s | 345.67495428986774 | What states will abolish daylight savings time by 2027 | 1798779540000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712404374100 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a ballot measure is passed but doesn’t go into effect until after 2026 it will still resolve yes. If the Us universally ends daylight savings time all resolve yes.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3171951582219799, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JamesF | 1719778984818 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 15 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "1d00a7a6185f", "prob": 0.41774220491030273, "text": "Massachusetts", "index": 0, "poolNo": 65.81605282733837, "userId": "nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 91.73578668926098, "textFts": "'massachusett':1", "contractId": "4G9pA4WHrWFlbBi33zKz", "createdTime": 1712404374100, "probChanges... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1712404374374}, {"name": "daylight saving", "slug": "daylight-saving", "groupId": "10f516e3-0b78-47d1-804f-9501158cf59a", "createdTime": 1712404374399}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": ... | ["politics-default", "daylight-saving", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 1719778981759 | 1712405971652 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8RPz3qRUDKbnBNQCJw5g | what-are-the-options-referring-to-d | 31 | what are the options referring to? define an option in the comments and i will resolve it yes | 1735707540000 | oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712404789557 | barak | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "if the definition is Correct, I will resolve the option that was defined. as \"yes.\" If the definition was incorrect, I will give more clues.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1952.5 | barak | 1712452937623 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "85724fd04231", "prob": 0.5764110741369517, "text": "barack", "index": 0, "poolNo": 197.37499999999986, "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 145.04555514898885, "textFts": "'barack':1", "contractId": "8RPz3qRUDKbnBNQCJw5g", "createdTime": 1712404789557, "probChanges": {"day": -... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1646980755807 | 0 | 0.25 | 1712407917141 | 1712452937136 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5580044341072344 | S2walXRsVLY7FGCXElol | {"NO": 931.3093253081096, "YES": 1035.9096618239807} | 0.5316135994989699 | will-the-bun-javascript-runtime-get | 660.5233266237867 | Will the Bun JavaScript runtime surpass Node in GitHub stars during 2024? | 1735718340000 | DGYg1e9JksfeFvPHFCuHLkKpEcV2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.7460967389958 | False | basic | public | 1712405175419 | TonyPepperoni 🪿 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bun is being developed as an alternative to node that is more modern, easier to work with, and waaaay faster. It has some cool features like supporting typescript and jsx out of the box. It looks like an interesting project, but will it have more G... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.026703773503834127} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.34719067164764, "platformFee": 2.509749468329285, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | TonyPepperoni | 1719392050982 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1691471177482 | 0 | [{"name": "GitHub", "slug": "github", "groupId": "1dF3UneQBLYPobPmbg9L", "createdTime": 1712405175560}, {"name": "JavaScript", "slug": "javascript", "groupId": "261a1fca-9a3c-44ed-8dce-e5e7253abe77", "createdTime": 1712405175561}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej... | ["github", "javascript", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719392047919 | 1716910298780 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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NURb2A73nRuAqqHkTHxR | what-rotten-tomatoes-audience-score | 15969.99989776291 | What Rotten Tomatoes audience score will "Civil War" (2024) have, two weeks after release? | 1714140707022 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | 34ae35b075e1 | public | 1712408180231 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Civil War\" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/civil_war_2024", "class": "break-anywher... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3432236208733022, "platformFee": 1.3432236208733022, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714140707022 | 120 | Ziddletwix | 1714140707022 | 0 | 2 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "1eb5d84c4fa7", "prob": 3.533688905929155e-07, "text": "1-3", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.004794315484105027, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 13567.447269901813, "textFts": "'-3':2 '1':1", "contractId": "NURb2A73nRuAqqHkTHxR", "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "cre... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "Media Rating Futures", "slug": "media-rating-futures", "groupId": "JJuCBcjCZIv8AOPz4O8c", "createdTime": 1712408180524}] | ["media-rating-futures"] | 0.25 | 1714140690516 | {"34ae35b075e1": 100} | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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40Eb8ky0yunfzoIvIcmI | what-will-the-next-ant-colony-be-in | 87.21920119599461 | What will the next ant colony be in AntCanadas rainforest terrarium Pantdora. | 1735711140000 | hiKAgumJpIeCY4qWcDZig6M5KKE3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712409678850 | TheOrigamiCrane | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Antscanada is a ant hobbies on YouTube that has tended to ant colonys of all shapes and sizes. One of his most recent and largest projects is known as Pantdora, a one thousand plus rainforest vivarium to simulate a mini ecosystem within glass. Curr... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.952666351059332, "platformFee": 0.952666351059332, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | TheOrigamiCrane | 1714455572125 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "5339fd0d83eb", "prob": 0.3544052408472566, "text": "Ghost Ants", "index": 0, "poolNo": 35.676448146884994, "userId": "hiKAgumJpIeCY4qWcDZig6M5KKE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 64.9892419585867, "textFts": "'ant':2 'ghost':1", "contractId": "40Eb8ky0yunfzoIvIcmI", "createdTime": 1712409678850, "probChanges": ... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1709212589408 | 0 | [{"name": "Hobbies", "slug": "hobbies", "groupId": "12a8e88a-73cc-4f5f-bc45-c9fd7f8feb48", "createdTime": 1712409679212}, {"name": "YouTube", "slug": "youtube", "groupId": "bbIsp5bNcwHpSK9qu9mj", "createdTime": 1712409679213}, {"name": "Social Media", "slug": "social-media", "groupId": "YzNv56EFKyx9DHwGYtIU", "createdT... | ["hobbies", "youtube", "social-media", "channel-reconition"] | 0.25 | 1714455568872 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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a8W7yqyuCB2lHFW8fkLj | who-will-be-the-next-hud-secretary | 686.7526292043897 | Who will be the next HUD secretary? | 1748750340000 | 4ngUHDxD6ZPAqH4OMGPFSIKlfNh1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712412162130 | Epsilon | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Marcia Fudge stepped down as HUD secretary. Who will the next real secretary be (not merely acting secretary)? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/202... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 250 | Epsilon | 1712622183408 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "fe7dd9117ba2", "prob": 0.0061741828874932025, "text": "Nina Turner", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.137643280994389, "userId": "Jxzs6NHitohaNLJ1AJkmt06uRw33", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 826.9794764437079, "textFts": "'nina':1 'turner':2", "contractId": "a8W7yqyuCB2lHFW8fkLj", "createdTime": 1712414933912, "probChan... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1682451539225 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1712412162314}, {"name": "Housing", "slug": "housing-22afc45777f5", "groupId": "84bb1ce8-5092-4b96-ba01-41c2d4d48ea9", "createdTime": 1712412162330}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "Aj... | ["politics-default", "housing-22afc45777f5", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 1712622180151 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.581939948043583 | W0nZKHL4SaON4nTsSRT8 | {"NO": 1099.4680969430149, "YES": 921.7693270660402} | 0.624109735986085 | will-zimbabwe-gold-collapse-by-2030 | 326.5586201622101 | Will Zimbabwe Gold collapse by 2030? | 1893571140000 | 0K7k2uX11xXkzm71SAE30ri2lhf1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.765835325734757 | False | basic | public | 1712418048524 | m | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Zimbabwe launched a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "new currency", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zimbabwe_Gold", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0011670413314468497} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.2537652067405123, "platformFee": 0.16997226326949352, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | m2 | 1718091962537 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fm2%2F2WJ7YfVg34.26?alt=media&token=f08bb2f8-f32a-4eba-a17c-877a2f4dac7e | 18 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1696279125225 | 0 | [{"name": "Zimbabwe", "slug": "zimbabwe", "groupId": "83b793ec-042d-49f9-89aa-f70b8cf8fa4e", "createdTime": 1712418048703}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1712418048708}, {"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani",... | ["zimbabwe", "economics-default", "finance", "africa"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718091959348 | 1712435704188 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13711280369432335 | N04gengVdJwBO87QBjPL | {"NO": 1664.6513023770715, "YES": 29.390349594754237} | 1 | will-george-santos-become-a-creator | 2370.645190936664 | Will George Santos become a creator on OnlyFans before 2026? | 1718883105349 | ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.848084230566164 | True | basic | YES | public | 1712418292417 | mint | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve YES if former Congressman George Santos becomes a creator on OnlyFans for any amount of time, posting any type of content, before January 1st, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve NO.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.9099922727469298} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 42.18838667016322, "platformFee": 0.03150803995558096, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718883105349 | 1000 | mint | 1718895587734 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697647723543 | 0 | [{"name": "❤️🔥 Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3", "createdTime": 1712418292555}, {"name": "George Santos", "slug": "george-santos", "groupId": "zPal3ZyA96rIMxF7lqkK", "createdTime": 1712418292556}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqo... | ["sex-and-love", "george-santos", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718883099035 | 1718895586283 | 0.9 | ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.6695458832479739 | p6X1YhkL0t7kuuSBw5rr | {"NO": 1270.1742063787094, "YES": 136.21944106201232} | 1 | solar-power-will-my-home-solar-syst | 1107.4595523670469 | Solar Power: Will my home solar system have a "net export" of at least 400 kWh in April? | 1714518162729 | IQ9DwxT6rxaynVgkiDDfIv58LGE3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1712420543768 | Ken Michaels | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The last two years the system had a net export of about 576 and 443 kWh. We have been using more electricity this year and the month has started cloudy. This will resolve YES if net export for April 2024 is 400 kWh or more. Resolution date is May 1... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.249234432674449, "platformFee": 3.249234432674449, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714518162729 | 297.5 | kenmichaels | 1714518162729 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmkalbert%2FsV_slNrI7H.MP?alt=media&token=cceb6bb1-21f3-4385-9a6c-c47195b85cb9 | 10 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1644799318130 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1712420543941}, {"name": "☀️ Solar", "slug": "-solar", "groupId": "27ed3c09-bbe1-48f2-a45b-22824cc81630", "createdTime": 1712420543940}] | ["technology-default", "-solar"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714490576691 | 1714518123058 | 0.95 | IQ9DwxT6rxaynVgkiDDfIv58LGE3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
atyzmLuMTgvUOJevjvjC | when-will-the-first-country-become | 1529.8646269217197 | When will the first country become cashless? | 1712685716481 | MJSWJeLiUuVJx2I04pm6HvDT7Kv1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1712420855797 | Jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves when any country becomes truly cashless and eliminates circulation of physical currency for trade. I will not bet.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cash... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712685716481 | 955 | JimAusman | 1712685861843 | 0 | 22 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "061411b3fc07", "prob": 0.02, "text": "2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.853346035708497, "userId": "MJSWJeLiUuVJx2I04pm6HvDT7Kv1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 389.1128829593335, "textFts": "'2024':1", "contractId": "atyzmLuMTgvUOJevjvjC", "resolution": "CANCEL", "resolverId": "MJSWJeLiUuVJx2I04pm6HvDT7Kv1", "cre... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1669143819202 | 0 | [{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1712420856018}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1712420856026}] | ["economics-default", "world-default"] | 0.25 | 1712684302134 | 1712685860763 | 0.88 | MJSWJeLiUuVJx2I04pm6HvDT7Kv1 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.33351942014001307 | jxlENPqNBETdpMuMISJB | {"NO": 392.4365479284385, "YES": 1529.1062640794485} | 0 | will-juventude-beat-gremio-at-campe | 1669.5043402736876 | Will Juventude beat Grêmio at Campeonato Gaúcho 2024 Finals? | 1712438100000 | AO5gOsn0UMgovkfm1tWES35fzC72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.7405503806019162 | True | play | NO | public | 1712421609070 | Dosbre | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will be resolved \"Yes\" if Juventude wins the competition, otherwise \"No\".", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.11381274705637069} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712439922137 | 671 | Dosbre | 1712438100000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIj-kgeycMvDoYDV8sDL_ngxq1QwoNGQUd_U-QJEmA9=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1708474870814 | 0 | [{"name": "Gauchão", "slug": "gauchao", "groupId": "e9a6cc72-66cf-440a-9bff-fe63781f4aa8", "createdTime": 1712421609318}, {"name": "Campeonato Gaúcho", "slug": "campeonato-gaucho", "groupId": "7cf891ca-b754-4bba-affa-804e47f4c793", "createdTime": 1712421609319}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR... | ["gauchao", "campeonato-gaucho", "soccer", "brazil-3292d24d179f"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712437110872 | 1712423869380 | 0.11 | AO5gOsn0UMgovkfm1tWES35fzC72 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3676791549107035 | nQXlZeU91WnE35FpBNwY | {"NO": 755.5341789900986, "YES": 1723.924087454856} | 0.20308561186213686 | will-ai-wipe-humanity-by-2030 | 6020.2897918352255 | Will AI wipe humanity by 2030? | 1893563940000 | wn3guzrcbYdRDr8lRFlobBEnRq52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.45507861070022 | False | basic | public | 1712422022069 | Robin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if, by January 1st, 2030, there exists widely available technology that uses AI for the purpose of cleaning humans' anuses after defecation. This does not strictly have to be done by \"wiping\"; for example, a bidet-like technology wou... | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.04859767415833888, "month": -0.03871416399108321} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.017734312005823, "platformFee": 1.846272477084447, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1045 | pie | 1719897473722 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKldPg3IsxzoAs_UY7bxXVh-JuBTwHgAfA3H1o9BgWK=s96-c | 63 | 2 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1711856381867 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1712422022223}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712422022224}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1712422022225}... | ["technology-default", "ai", "fun", "pun-title", "meme-markets"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | True | True | 1719897470673 | 1712506087918 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4959333465582225 | qn3Vbg0SCW4Z9MNAMgBg | {"NO": 115.23809523809524, "YES": 125.00000000000001} | 0.4756242568370986 | will-vy-canis-majoris-collapse-into | 5 | Will VY Canis Majoris collapse into a pulsar | 38562584340000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712422608578 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | StochasticParrot | 1712447018641 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712447015376 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5120812142554996 | BjnBUd0uWu1SYYboTaND | {"NO": 191.26596320239196, "YES": 169.27842677485614} | 0.5425107085364577 | will-pokemon-from-pokemon-go-be-fou | 126.91828401097227 | Will Pokémon from Pokémon go be found on the moon before 2100 | 4102462740000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712424933644 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A if Pokémon go stops existing before 2100 without Pokémon having been on the moon.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if at any time between now and 2100 Pokémon can be found on the moon I. The... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 180 | JamesF | 1714489560180 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "🌙 Moon", "slug": "moon", "groupId": "mcSfQitoDEt19DoPDBJc", "createdTime": 1712424933790}, {"name": "Pokemon Go", "slug": "pokemon-go", "groupId": "fad9e2e2-f252-480f-a329-cf1035c47db0", "createdTime": 1712424933794}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1... | ["moon", "pokemon-go", "space", "pokemon"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714489554838 |
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