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0.49999999999999994 | eGNklafXMuYfo5W31bRf | {"NO": 102.89995674775838, "YES": 97.18177068347353} | 0.5142896258886264 | will-alexplainable-recognize-one-ra-9b41f01457f9 | 3 | Will Alexplainable recognize one randomly selected class with up to 70% accuracy, autonomously? | 1717711140000 | Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712478521238 | ^,^ Épi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/epiphanie_gedeon/will-alexplainable-recognize-at-lea-f650be308b5c", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/epiphanie_gedeon/will-alexplai... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.009481266633242558} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.10004325224162242, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | epiphanie_gedeon | 1717706573498 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzht0r_Wd81YAWA-OvNNPddGK7Y7RC-HxeNO25a=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1652999248121 | 0 | [{"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 1712478521396}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712478521410}, {"name": "🤖❤️ AI Alignment", "slug": "ai-alignment", "groupId": "p8Tmu38lHhN1JQavwAmR", "createdTime": 17124785... | ["ai-safety", "ai", "ai-alignment", "constructability", "alexplainable"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717706570389 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.45047686132393205 | ivEJB8HAKirmzo0cqRah | {"NO": 82.11466159797082, "YES": 462.2393680379036} | 0.12711513027182594 | will-the-axolotl-ambystoma-mexicanu | 286 | Will the Axolotl (Ambystoma mexicanum) become extinct in the current century? | 4102441140000 | OOuU1xDOeYXmwST8K8XFHi8dedJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712480299262 | Extinction Risk | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Axolotl is a species of salamander native only to lakes in the Valley of Mexico. The species is famous for their regenerative abilities. While less than 1000 individuals remain in the wild, captive Axolotls are used in scientific research and a... | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.8803159810481942, "platformFee": 1.8803159810481942, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 180 | ExtinctionRisk | 1716326467992 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1708510781928 | 0 | [{"name": "Extinction Risk", "slug": "extinction-risk", "groupId": "19a4aeaa-d9f9-4cc7-9a85-a775269ceaa5", "createdTime": 1712480299554}, {"name": "Environment", "slug": "environment-243810591da2", "groupId": "b31ce04a-9c58-4318-988e-28474c7761f2", "createdTime": 1712480299556}, {"name": "Zoology", "slug": "zoology", "... | ["extinction-risk", "environment-243810591da2", "zoology", "animals", "biodiversity"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716326463816 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23097241204674812 | pYoKR39TqotcAMvvcwTB | {"NO": 831.3133250103929, "YES": 1582.9010674859794} | 0.13624477259864468 | will-tsmc-be-said-by-anyone-in-a-pr | 1420.2139299079272 | Will "TSMC" be said by anyone in a Presidential debate in 2024? | 1730433540000 | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.725342485135076 | False | basic | public | 1712481216092 | Semiotic Rivalry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Including the moderators", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.004937286317717116, "month": -0.01019079533635886} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3891345025677577, "platformFee": 0.15414474759266295, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SemioticRivalry | 1719722368093 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1669063432873 | 0 | [{"name": "AI Regulation", "slug": "ai-regulation", "groupId": "OGLYAD1HuqANuck9D9kY", "createdTime": 1712481216949}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1712481216952}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-electio... | ["ai-regulation", "us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "ai", "technology-default", "science-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719722365000 | 1712572068403 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2293009103655744 | HawWCvLj8qRavyn73sdi | {"NO": 785.4418033217378, "YES": 1919.5895958120632} | 0.10852632136642403 | will-quantum-be-said-by-anyone-in-a | 972.9779216693914 | Will "Quantum" be said by anyone in a Presidential debate in 2024? | 1730433540000 | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.766129603554038 | False | basic | public | 1712481369716 | Semiotic Rivalry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Including the moderators", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.9466680116379407, "platformFee": 2.9391262077658165, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SemioticRivalry | 1716752693317 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1669063432873 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1712481369975}, {"name": "AI Regulation", "slug": "ai-regulation", "groupId": "OGLYAD1HuqANuck9D9kY", "createdTime": 1712481369973}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politic... | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "ai-regulation", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716752689644 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.1832347101892326 | WSgJH0eTWIxVXsuCZEEn | {"NO": 921.9671999130442, "YES": 1227.5895636001105} | 0.1441942537594747 | will-the-phrase-machine-learning-be | 734.0619367718083 | Will the phrase "Machine Learning" be mentioned by anyone in a Presidential debate in 2024? | 1730433540000 | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.781390169377815 | False | basic | public | 1712481605528 | Semiotic Rivalry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Including the moderators. Must be the specific phrase \"machine learning\", no other form of the phrase will count.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.0012899533090281745, "month": 0.0012899533090282023} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5492599838433254, "platformFee": 1.4430952849251504, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SemioticRivalry | 1719999694307 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1669063432873 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712481605772}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1712481605778}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UC... | ["ai", "2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "technology-default", "us-politics", "donald-trump", "ai-safety"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719999691115 | 1712648401014 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5678822705495175 | rkBM9wiAK3syCytn9tPO | {"NO": 9459.986593923806, "YES": 122.47575391570727} | 1 | will-iran-strike-israel-in-the-next | 71839.1111766404 | Will Iran strike Israel in the next week? | 1713062902184 | SjGUx6SlbwU4ue0BVjxxaMuygsA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.32199062110316 | True | basic | YES | public | 1712483731133 | Elliot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve as yes if Iran strikes Israel by the experation date of the market. Else the market will resolve no.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A strike is defined as an attack wi... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.009999999999999787} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713062902184 | 1750 | Elliot_dev | 1713062902184 | 0 | 205 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1696789198949 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1712483731318}, {"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "groupId": "cea99c1c-afb9-49b2-adfa-9be739adce10", "createdTime": 1712483731320}, {"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel... | ["us-politics", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "israel", "arabisraeli-conflict"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713062499114 | 1713052470160 | 0.99 | SjGUx6SlbwU4ue0BVjxxaMuygsA2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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pKSV2GXcsiiJGw106dwL | 2025-fifa-club-world-cup-champion | 222.95237837189006 | Nobel Prize 2024. Will a person employed by this university be a laureate? | 1729029540000 | l2lqtPg6DZbhGhlEfk76vn084C83 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712486596902 | Daniel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Universities ranked in the top 10 of World University Rankings (by Times Higher Education).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market considers Nobel Prizes of all categories. They are:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.2948405983285636, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 790 | Seykran | 1720020353621 | 0 | 9 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b1d007d56488", "prob": 0.3145000644595173, "text": "University of Oxford", "index": 0, "poolNo": 35.785568686451974, "userId": "l2lqtPg6DZbhGhlEfk76vn084C83", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 78, "textFts": "'oxford':3 'univers':1", "contractId": "pKSV2GXcsiiJGw106dwL", "createdTime": 1712486596902, "probChanges":... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712450828368 | 0 | [{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1712489779042}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1712489782901}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoM... | ["science-default", "technology-default", "politics-default", "medicine", "literature", "academic-awards", "physics-a6878c3ad095", "economics-default", "colleges-universities"] | 0.25 | 1720020350498 | False | l2lqtPg6DZbhGhlEfk76vn084C83 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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3a7VkZBTFVPXamZ0xeQM | fide-candidates-tournament-round-4 | 22722.403503725352 | FIDE Candidates Tournament - Round 4 prop bets | 1712531944333 | FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1712491002299 | Weezing | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Options are for Open section unless specified otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Tournament starts at 2:30 PM EDT/.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Gam... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712531944333 | 2565 | Weezing | 1712600622200 | 0 | 14 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "84717c63db75", "prob": 0.01787136356895237, "text": "Some opening move other than d4 or e4 is played", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.722729431831951, "userId": "FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 369.4505494505495, "textFts": "'d4':6 'e4':8 'move':3 'open':2 'play':10", "contractId": "3a7VkZ... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700212225777 | 0 | [{"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1712491002554}, {"name": "Chess candidates 2024", "slug": "chess-candidates-2024", "groupId": "09ea3682-1d3f-4f69-8ce4-b68d4fe77f12", "createdTime": 1712491002565}] | ["chess", "chess-candidates-2024"] | 0.25 | 1712531918903 | 1712600620891 | 0.01 | FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1 | False | liquidity | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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sACktujffn6oeNjICMr5 | what-will-be-the-total-number-of-h5 | 326.25346514595174 | What will be the total number of H5N1 human cases reported by the CDC in the US at the end of 2024? [0-200] | 1735707540000 | Kr23YYpkdnU4JFFqHr2NxEV6PvN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712501997681 | JGY | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolve to [190-200] if the cases exceed 200.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "As reported here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/avian-flu-summary.htm", "type": "text", "marks... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.660240202512418, "platformFee": 1.5931347831876874, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | jgyou | 1720034920643 | 0 | 7 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "752c7e4a2232", "prob": 0.13157404293098166, "text": "0-10", "index": 0, "poolNo": 19.96800054477137, "userId": "Kr23YYpkdnU4JFFqHr2NxEV6PvN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 131.79446034765377, "textFts": "'-10':2 '0':1", "contractId": "sACktujffn6oeNjICMr5", "createdTime": 1712501997681, "probChanges": {"day": ... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1675703905738 | 0 | [{"name": "H5N1 Bird Flu", "slug": "h5n1-bird-flu", "groupId": "bjAQEGbYlIgTjDhStoFr", "createdTime": 1712501997909}, {"name": "Public Health", "slug": "public-health", "groupId": "ybln6XDvz5ik7zO0aYe1", "createdTime": 1712501997907}, {"name": "Infectious Disease", "slug": "infectious-disease", "groupId": "22eaf532-c7c... | ["h5n1-bird-flu", "public-health", "infectious-disease"] | 0.25 | 1719150320867 | 1720034918668 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
32V0fcPu52QSnlQi2Lkz | who-will-be-manifolds-favorite-user | 2786.2092559184375 | Who will be manifold’s favorite user? (Resolves to % for each option) | 1713758340000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | basic | CHOOSE_MULTIPLE | public | 1712502041651 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will make a poll a week from now and it will be open for a week. Anyone can add answers and all added answers will be on the poll. Each answer resolves to the % of people who answered it.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24.352435240703585, "platformFee": 24.352435240703585, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713829210872 | 1875 | JamesF | 1713758340000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 34 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "7fbc1a0b81a5", "prob": 0.10698856287242808, "text": "@Joshua", "index": 0, "poolNo": 68.41272757964607, "userId": "nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 571.0269073018936, "textFts": "'joshua':1", "contractId": "32V0fcPu52QSnlQi2Lkz", "resolverId": "nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2", "created... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712502041862}, {"name": "Manifold's favorites", "slug": "manifolds-favorites", "groupId": "e2977ce8-9caf-4506-9f80-e6895dc84aa2", "createdTime": 1712502041870}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifolds-favorites", "manifold-users", "high-school"] | 0.25 | 1713756003877 | 1713741050195 | {"00a7f5ac0d6e": 4.3478260869565215, "7fbc1a0b81a5": 13.043478260869565, "96e95ab05cfa": 8.695652173913043, "a91d33a5b46d": 34.78260869565217, "aabe2bfff1eb": 4.3478260869565215, "b66e53a99549": 8.695652173913043, "e6d3b871fd21": 13.043478260869565, "f3d9ab204f08": 8.695652173913043, "f98150c1f3a1": 4.3478260869565215} | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | True | prob-desc | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.42870546960296185 | hoSJIhq4SDqeTJ9pcIf6 | {"NO": 81.98850984490332, "YES": 6090.979615150831} | 0 | will-bitcoin-hit-76543-before-65432-6275b11438e5 | 7969.949858641343 | Will Bitcoin hit $76543 before $65432? | 1713011795170 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8049397474220776 | True | play | NO | public | 1712502198469 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Start courting from market creation", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.012917025614704515} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713011795170 | 620 | AmmonLam | 1713011795170 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 27 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "🅱️ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "createdTime": 1712502198611}, {"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1712502198607}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime"... | ["bitcoin", "finance", "economics-default", "stocks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713011787158 | 1713001483261 | 0.01 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6656010697151462 | GgwOOpRZK6lRKfd5Wo1H | {"NO": 1103.8981158375173, "YES": 939.7872325586234} | 0.7004213823442894 | will-a-video-game-released-after-20-c53f4ba5e055 | 465.6304438211765 | Will a video game released after 2023 be a top 10 best-selling game of all time, by EOY 2027? | 1830315540000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.604777318412033 | False | basic | public | 1712502898903 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if some video-game that released this year or later gets into the top 10 in the List of best-selling video games, according to Wikipedia", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-sel... | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.000279910128543559} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.974779320945509, "platformFee": 0.35727473265617354, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Bayesian | 1719073413222 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "Video Games", "slug": "video-games", "groupId": "9FaZmHrfS8IcDJyu6pUD", "createdTime": 1712502899065}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1712502899062}, {"name": "Steam", "slug": "steam", "groupId": "Y5rThqV7EajtoQh906Yz", "createdTime": 1712502899072}] | ["video-games", "gaming", "steam"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719073410147 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5534602993695318 | Qek78i5BlCmRvh5i8a0S | {"NO": 589.8459874090258, "YES": 151.30912795036352} | 0 | fast-market-will-bitcoin-be-on-or-a | 1649.4357544142051 | (Fast Market) Will Bitcoin be on or above 69,000 usd On Friday April 12 at 12pm. | 1712941315595 | IiMcXEGTjUXE5oAOu95ntKjxzZ92 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.372198707400338 | True | play | NO | public | 1712502940663 | Andrew | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market resolve YES if Bitcoin is on or above 69,000 on Friday the 12 at 12 pm. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market resolves NO if Bitcoin is below 69,000 on Friday the 12 at 12 pm. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type":... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.9578673653092795} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712941315595 | 300 | AndrewCrosse | 1712959154891 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1709841963600 | 0 | [{"name": "Bitcoin maxi", "slug": "bitcoin-maxi", "groupId": "q6y2Gz8Wmy4nZwtfmpHt", "createdTime": 1712502940829}, {"name": "🅱️ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "createdTime": 1712502940843}, {"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "created... | ["bitcoin-maxi", "bitcoin", "crypto-speculation"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712941277834 | 1712959154292 | 0.83 | IiMcXEGTjUXE5oAOu95ntKjxzZ92 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3945717448522876 | 07uV3FB8v7H7UbqtLskq | {"NO": 92.1813172115526, "YES": 5902.673053863635} | 0 | short-fuse-bulls-vs-bears-will-the | 6672.122136238764 | [NOT short fuse] Bulls vs Bears: Will the S&P 500 hit 5,300.00 before 5,100.00? | 1713214966271 | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.803889893715573 | True | play | NO | public | 1712503876767 | Lion | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves only, if the S&P 500 hits 5,300.00 or 5,100.00 points ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "during official NYSE core trading hours", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nyse.com/markets/hours-calendars", "cla... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.010075337942102086} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713214966271 | 500 | Lion | 1713214966271 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | 22 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1691095902341 | 0 | [{"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1712503876932}, {"name": "S&P 500 Changes", "slug": "sp-500-changes", "groupId": "1c9a3cf9-c2b7-4136-ae31-a21815e162fa", "createdTime": 1712503876927}, {"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", ... | ["stocks", "sp-500-changes", "finance", "sp-500-439f18dbc885"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713201744189 | 1713214958851 | 0.01 | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
mUSavf6Ni05YWm8fztIy | which-thresholds-will-bitcoin-btc-h-4b123b88ec28 | 27334.779384117523 | Which prices will Bitcoin (BTC) hit in May? | 1717200000000 | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1712504158555 | Lion | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "CoinMarketCap", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decor... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 174.47122266549127, "platformFee": 100.36108456079897, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717203173926 | 1955 | Lion | 1717203210553 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | 54 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "1ee6e34d01ed", "prob": 0.01, "text": "$30,000", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.28371238553197, "userId": "Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 523.087526167664, "textFts": "'000':2 '30':1", "contractId": "mUSavf6Ni05YWm8fztIy", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73", "... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1691095902341 | 0 | [{"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1712504158778}, {"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1712504158781}, {"name": "🪙 Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "creat... | ["stocks", "crypto-speculation", "crypto-prices", "bitcoin", "finance", "bitcoin-maxi"] | 0.25 | 1717196050488 | 1717203209092 | 0.03 | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | False | new | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999998 | IkNnaQicICtItacBh9aY | {"NO": 132.9196551622462, "YES": 75.23341817125302} | 0.6385668634797652 | bayesian-yes-vs-frequentist-no-prob | 63 | Bayesian (YES) vs Frequentist (NO) Probability Stock | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712504219991 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = Buy", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "No = Short", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Bayesian\" does NOT refer to me, instead I refer to it. See ", "type": "text"}, {"tex... | STONK | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.003406049910900877} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.024789282198305805, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Bayesian | 1719073431436 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "Bayes", "slug": "bayes", "groupId": "39bc1828-4d9c-4007-9798-06cd5f8203d1", "createdTime": 1712504220199}, {"name": "probability", "slug": "probability", "groupId": "6801b495-7a44-40b3-b717-0fb4536c25b6", "createdTime": 1712504220198}, {"name": "Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4... | ["bayes", "probability", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized", "all-stonks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1719073428296 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
uaHHIUF9sWY6nN2am3wa | -the-chaos-grid-mini-place-your-bet | 5783.672374074093 | 🎲 The Chaos Grid 🎲 Mini - [Place your bets] What will be the final total score of the Chaos Grid Mini? | 1713187727510 | iEE5Xt4StNg7Wtu1pNN6YE5v1S23 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | b3dbfbe2d223 | public | 1712504766871 | Sapphire828 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Welcome to The Chaos Grid Mini! Throughout the week (daily), 2 dice will be rolled by the fairlyrandom bot and arranged into a 4x4 grid filling up rows left to right and top to bottom. 1 point will be assigned for each triplet in the grid either ve... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713187727510 | 385 | EstMtz | 1713187727510 | 0 | 5 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "16b127ce6474", "prob": 0.004412213864716191, "text": "0", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.728443030608844, "userId": "iEE5Xt4StNg7Wtu1pNN6YE5v1S23", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1743.873647795504, "textFts": "'0':1", "contractId": "uaHHIUF9sWY6nN2am3wa", "resolverId": "iEE5Xt4StNg7Wtu1pNN6YE5v1S23", "createdTime": 171... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701495546714 | 0 | [{"name": "Dice", "slug": "dice", "groupId": "cb9b9e13-ad1a-41c1-96d2-23cd5b008777", "createdTime": 1712504767163}, {"name": "Random Betting", "slug": "random-betting", "groupId": "e24fcf63-4217-4c2a-9867-2210fade6247", "createdTime": 1712504767169}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0v... | ["dice", "random-betting", "gaming", "the-chaos-grid", "manifold-6748e065087e", "fairlyrandom", "nonpredictive-profits"] | 0.25 | False | 1713187723675 | 1713187665014 | {"b3dbfbe2d223": 100} | iEE5Xt4StNg7Wtu1pNN6YE5v1S23 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
x4j8XZWsxHQO1iQsqVYe | size-of-the-first-group-that-lands | 140.99999999999997 | Size of the first group that lands on mars | 2240629140000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712505155101 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Whenever the first human-inhabited spaceship successfully lands on mars, how many people will be alive upon landing? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\"People\" refers only to humans", "type":... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.060360426821337805, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 180 | Bayesian | 1719073447363 | 0 | 6 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "0ae90b2ef5ec", "prob": 0.00861712874499744, "text": "0-1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.9910805523131021, "userId": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 114.02177136642615, "textFts": "'-1':2 '0':1", "contractId": "x4j8XZWsxHQO1iQsqVYe", "createdTime": 1712505155101, "probChanges": {"day": 2... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "Statistics", "slug": "statistics", "groupId": "5a0a1696-a330-4a0c-8ad5-a90208ab3984", "createdTime": 1712505155380}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712505155387}] | ["statistics", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 1719073443450 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5747794594264147 | M0AYiQ14YgJvoX3ol0Dm | {"NO": 1002.2374669655577, "YES": 995.005607750114} | 0.5765484657484004 | will-a-video-game-released-after-20-0d580bfd0bb9 | 204.8344469032921 | Will a video game released after 2023 be a top 10 best-selling game of all time, by EOY 2026? | 1798779540000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.761703826931516 | False | basic | public | 1712505655563 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if some video-game that released this year or later gets into the top 10 in the List of best-selling video games, according to Wikipedia", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-sel... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0004118527564660468} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.17504376419951095, "platformFee": 0.14624189211044542, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Bayesian | 1719073463416 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "Steam", "slug": "steam", "groupId": "Y5rThqV7EajtoQh906Yz", "createdTime": 1712505655728}, {"name": "Video Games", "slug": "video-games", "groupId": "9FaZmHrfS8IcDJyu6pUD", "createdTime": 1712505655742}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1712505655746}] | ["steam", "video-games", "gaming"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719073460259 | 1712510700147 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.313583720083865 | toEDCe8T6D34piQeU4EC | {"NO": 243.90452078976944, "YES": 250.52934564292764} | 0.30784423215239776 | will-a-video-game-released-after-20-be021261544d | 246 | Will a video game released after 2023 be a top 10 best-selling game of all time, by EOY 2025? | 1767243540000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712505845716 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if some video-game that released this year or later gets into the top 10 in the List of best-selling video games, according to Wikipedia", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-sel... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 0.0026556956306333923} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.39952138326875075, "platformFee": 0.11919787912956448, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 260 | Bayesian | 1719073478867 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1712505845878}, {"name": "Steam", "slug": "steam", "groupId": "Y5rThqV7EajtoQh906Yz", "createdTime": 1712505845883}, {"name": "Video Games", "slug": "video-games", "groupId": "9FaZmHrfS8IcDJyu6pUD", "createdTime": 1712505845892}] | ["gaming", "steam", "video-games"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719073475801 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17376958873572168 | zDJN6STwWS4PgzE7DQWC | {"NO": 233.56264120819344, "YES": 277.86896421219546} | 0.15022431518127696 | is-the-singularity-in-the-next-100d | 3270.32946135488 | Is the singularity in the next 100days? | 1712514877803 | np29BqZ79vNQmcm2p7PL9DGDHVD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9380368498896148 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1712505993180 | Neil G | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market based on:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://twitter.com/gptbrooke/status/1776996903009321459", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/gptbrooke/status/17769969... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.077952249689022} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712514877803 | 340 | NeilG | 1712521404149 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK_41pWFKQN5JSQho36JsecQ6CRXu38jA1WGjBecCAwTnoy=s96-c | 15 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1704857197498 | 0 | [{"name": "vibeclipse", "slug": "vibeclipse", "groupId": "aec74a29-56b2-49c8-88a4-e8928071c8f3", "createdTime": 1712505993318}, {"name": "Eclipse", "slug": "eclipse", "groupId": "4bd0a32d-97da-4479-8fd0-43d0d5a7a63c", "createdTime": 1712505993325}, {"name": "Singularity Timelines", "slug": "singularity-timelines", "gro... | ["vibeclipse", "eclipse", "singularity-timelines"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712514505976 | 1712521403495 | 0.15 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06280835974458186 | LFRsLo3jsVebQzzE8BqZ | {"NO": 886.9276615842889, "YES": 2090.0731954330686} | 0.027652676514664163 | will-ted-cruz-be-trumps-running-mat | 6544.544924257541 | Will Ted Cruz be Trump's running mate? | 1723348740000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.888424674859081 | False | basic | public | 1712506119277 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 3.469446951953614e-18, "week": 3.469446951953614e-18, "month": 3.469446951953614e-18} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6474007418820589, "platformFee": 0.6474007418820589, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | BTE | 1715979430677 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1645484592545 | 0 | [{"name": "🥈Trump VP", "slug": "trump-vp", "groupId": "91cb9237-771a-4e21-8eb2-d05f3f6d9e5b", "createdTime": 1712506119539}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1712506119540}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-electi... | ["trump-vp", "donald-trump", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715979427429 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7282952316786726 | yX73ZSVHbPpDE4CEbmdX | {"NO": 886.4305597727512, "YES": 145.67946620345054} | 0.9422302537576835 | at-the-end-of-2024-will-manifolds-h | 760.7002957300413 | At the end of 2024, will Manifold’s highest daily active user [DAU] product be Markets? | 1735718340000 | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712506527391 | Matty B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We’re expecting an upcoming pivot (see below). Will the pivot outperform the current main focus: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "manifold.markets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://manifold.markets", "class": "brea... | BINARY | {"day": 4.440892098500626e-16, "week": 4.440892098500626e-16, "month": 4.440892098500626e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4345722486037122, "platformFee": 1.4345722486037122, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 260 | mattyb | 1713838495409 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697395701475 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712506527545}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1712506527550}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-bus... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-business-future", "manifold-users", "manifold-investors", "-manifans"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713838492088 | 1712508189717 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0MpY4wvU4pob9djDimAd | how-many-goals-will-connor-bedard-s-d4da9e502ced | 70 | How many goals will Connor Bedard score for the Chicago Blackhawks in the 2024-2025 regular NHL season? | 1745211540000 | fUCdOiuL5fRnD3njjwNXo5zY4pR2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712507198093 | John O. | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7456277441724071, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 175 | JohnO | 1717294923174 | 0 | 2 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "2dbf335f24cf", "prob": 0.05229907141214684, "text": "10 or fewer", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.391580472963783, "userId": "fUCdOiuL5fRnD3njjwNXo5zY4pR2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 152.06213785089113, "textFts": "'10':1 'fewer':3", "contractId": "0MpY4wvU4pob9djDimAd", "createdTime": 1712507198093, "probChanges"... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1696817462342 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1712507198315}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.25 | 1717294919991 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
tLlbO5PassntJXs2Z7wV | do-you-agree-with-the-reresolve-of | 0 | Do you agree with the re-resolve of the "MY PUSSY IN BIO" market from NO to YES after 5 days? | 1715119140000 | lCq4BTG0BZYYz9SL5tGVOOz3Bx52 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1712508172120 | Peter 1169 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Pyra/will-my-pussy-in-bio-spam-stop-by-a", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market was initially resolved as NO on April 1st, 2024. However, five days later, it was m... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715119141106 | Peter1169 | 1712613991360 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL6Qvm2Aa9pfA8_rzlDW13AQD1I4falviuj6hu28IrUbLU=s96-c | 54 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1707660435691 | 0 | [{"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1712508172263}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712508172320}] | ["twitter", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 1712613990765 | ["c7d6f794f7ef"] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ArQT74f9ZH7vnQ2NNhDe | how-many-followers-will-roon-tszzl-3c31e899273a | 323.73741763996884 | How many followers will Roon @tszzl have on X by December 1st, 2024? | 1733115540000 | wDSneO1pBGOVpAgHXs4sWK7xkf12 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712508383259 | Walker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.8363814260527525, "platformFee": 2.3864039107480637, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 220 | walker75 | 1717951193953 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLDNva9gDRFv9ewuQeAwVLujKmkR643x73OrJKnGgVHNGqosg=s96-c | 5 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "e109e83513b2", "prob": 0.007757091887190613, "text": "169000-170000", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.209534728960414, "userId": "wDSneO1pBGOVpAgHXs4sWK7xkf12", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 154.71677716090315, "textFts": "'-170000':2 '169000':1", "contractId": "ArQT74f9ZH7vnQ2NNhDe", "createdTime": 1712508383259, "pro... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712501407819 | 0 | [{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1712508383524}, {"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1712508383540}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 171250838... | ["culture-default", "twitter", "ai"] | 0.25 | 1717951190058 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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6TsVf5zR8gHezO7tXV0C | when-will-the-first-humans-land-on-b99610c14c5d | 689.8836987019984 | When will the first humans set foot on Mars? | 3282094740000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712510385493 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to whatever year in which a human being sets foot on the surface of the planet Mars and remains alive for at least one minute after arriving. Orbiting doesn't count, nor does landing in a spaceship and taking off again without ... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.17924933690783, "platformFee": 0.215755489238825, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Bayesian | 1719195542141 | 0 | 15 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "3fa0bfdc1ff7", "prob": 0.0003121038026070648, "text": "2024-2025", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.3511025928810871, "userId": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1124.6034476184836, "textFts": "'-2025':2 '2024':1", "contractId": "6TsVf5zR8gHezO7tXV0C", "createdTime": 1712510385493, "probChang... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "Mars", "slug": "mars", "groupId": "3d6624c3-2569-4fe1-8524-128952b07684", "createdTime": 1712510385785}, {"name": "🔭 Space exploration", "slug": "space-exploration", "groupId": "7EN6VxtLzX459WLUsjQv", "createdTime": 1712510385783}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "cr... | ["mars", "space-exploration", "space"] | 0.25 | 1719195538439 | 1712534353780 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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vUe4wSuzYaINgvn0pM5c | which-jockey-will-have-the-most-win-7db9b1e62291 | 200 | Which jockey will have the most wins at Keeneland on April 11th? | 1712870160000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1712526224740 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Results verified by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Equibase.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://Equibase.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:und... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712871002803 | 405 | ovals | 1712870160000 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "67cbce61f2cb", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Irad Ortiz, Jr.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 51.049993962081864, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 51.699310459023756, "textFts": "'irad':1 'jr':3 'ortiz':2", "contractId": "vUe4wSuzYaINgvn0pM5c", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsa... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | [{"name": "Horse racing", "slug": "horse-racing", "groupId": "ef96178c-314c-4aed-be84-e13d3875ff06", "createdTime": 1712526224934}, {"name": "Jockey", "slug": "jockey", "groupId": "383cbd3e-b514-4419-ba36-e121d65d7b2f", "createdTime": 1712526224943}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhI... | ["horse-racing", "jockey", "sports-default", "keeneland"] | 0.25 | 1712864368415 | 0.19 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5402950972607722 | RwcFMFxlZz4ZeGk0bmtr | {"NO": 234.9814006552342, "YES": 140.1379639192858} | 0.663383659803737 | will-a-party-other-than-pis-and-po | 87 | Will a party other than PiS and PO win any national election in Poland by 2040? | 2227384740000 | M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712526447088 | Łukasz Bartoszcze | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By winning, I mean getting the largest total number of votes. This question considers all elections on a national scale (presidential elections, parliamentary, European Parliament, even the local ones). If a presidential candidate leaves PiS/PO jus... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-16, "week": -5.551115123125783e-16, "month": -5.551115123125783e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.2443424074257167, "platformFee": 0.2443424074257167, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 180 | ukaszBartoszcze | 1714546483552 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJAzqOEpDemVFZnDaZ_a1yJBvJ9cAKEBP_qg6nYoNRIBSU=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1708276167391 | 0 | [{"name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "groupId": "i5JOzjrK5ZMHPSkhgzoi", "createdTime": 1712526447256}, {"name": "Elections: World", "slug": "elections-world", "groupId": "w5UI0a5OgD7u18Y4gxJs", "createdTime": 1712526447254}, {"name": "Poland", "slug": "poland", "groupId": "eGQaygk9D261Iu1uBpDA", "createdTime": 1... | ["elections", "elections-world", "poland", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714546480274 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PXwytHk056UrP0fzLNt3 | who-will-win-owcs-stage-2-emea | 20 | Who will win OWCS Stage 2 EMEA? | 1714341540000 | TU2PWWSEtIddVH0uRWmleQ5HvMt2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | c81f6b4dd32b | public | 1712526635256 | zinfour | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://liquipedia.net/overwatch/Overwatch_Champions_Series/2024/EMEA/Stage_2/Main_Event", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://liquipedia.net/overwatch/Overwatch_Champions_Series/2024/EMEA/Stage_2/Main_Event", "cla... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714354746539 | 420 | zinfour | 1714341540000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfsX1pJBLnA8vF1MKKjIM9GSvTKOA5XqE1-SFEvMkid=s96-c | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "c81f6b4dd32b", "prob": 0.050423640913458724, "text": "Spacestation Gaming", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.899713899304038, "userId": "TU2PWWSEtIddVH0uRWmleQ5HvMt2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 224.09502356377055, "textFts": "'game':2 'spacest':1", "contractId": "PXwytHk056UrP0fzLNt3", "resolverId": "TU2PWWSEtIddVH... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1689504252864 | 0 | [{"name": "Esports", "slug": "esports", "groupId": "XmzXsWcpvMK0PSBDNpVc", "createdTime": 1712526635519}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1712526635542}, {"name": "Overwatch 2", "slug": "overwatch-2", "groupId": "93129ade-7951-44d1-9636-4a8675bf6358", "createdTi... | ["esports", "gaming", "overwatch-2"] | 0.25 | 1712576659783 | {"c81f6b4dd32b": 100} | TU2PWWSEtIddVH0uRWmleQ5HvMt2 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7V13o83Ox0rHcO2UnjLj | when-will-an-ai-win-the-5-million-a | 3798.5771561735824 | When will an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize? | 1735707540000 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712526647359 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria same as this polymarket market, except the deadline is different here", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-an-ai-win-the-5-million-ai-math-olympiad-prize-be... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.842764032882246, "platformFee": 4.019939906570635, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1865 | AmmonLam | 1719304983599 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 12 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "52ce7f0f9a6d", "prob": 0.03966150704214125, "text": "Before the end of May 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.984843015340889, "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 169.12654397556028, "textFts": "'2024':6 'end':3 'may':5", "contractId": "7V13o83Ox0rHcO2UnjLj", "createdTime": 17125... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "IMO Grand Challenge", "slug": "imo-grand-challenge", "groupId": "rOTh4ovS26Q699HzfgGy", "createdTime": 1712526647591}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1712526647593}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqz... | ["imo-grand-challenge", "technical-ai-timelines", "ai"] | 0.25 | 1719304980394 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4214766998339104 | K2OMoo1XGGYXBR2nFwZd | {"NO": 183.729308663063, "YES": 168.57239617888763} | 0.442600142818249 | will-abortion-laws-worldwide-get-st | 130.2560693784537 | Will abortion laws worldwide get stricter by 2050? | 2537647140000 | M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712526862380 | Łukasz Bartoszcze | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves as YES if more countries change their laws to be stricter (make abortion legal in less cases) than relax them (make abortion legal in more cases). If a country does not change its stance on abortion, it is not included for th... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5741347295829289, "platformFee": 0.5741347295829289, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 180 | ukaszBartoszcze | 1713900296073 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJAzqOEpDemVFZnDaZ_a1yJBvJ9cAKEBP_qg6nYoNRIBSU=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1708276167391 | 0 | [{"name": "Human Rights", "slug": "human-rights", "groupId": "1ZNHzfsdBzDJT4UgK2C2", "createdTime": 1712526862626}, {"name": "Abortion", "slug": "abortion", "groupId": "e1bf3240-d8e5-47ff-b924-09f98846996c", "createdTime": 1712526862734}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMs... | ["human-rights", "abortion", "politics-default", "voting"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713900284659 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
i4CqBpauOL1Nbp7WFYnp | when-will-the-us-have-the-first-fem | 2464.4570263668184 | When will the US have the first female President? | 1983679140000 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712526868489 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if a female president was elected or a female vice president became president due to the current president unable to perform his duty.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.361777746184984, "platformFee": 0.4904983328631056, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2045 | AmmonLam | 1720021700609 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 27 | 2 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a4459fe28ccf", "prob": 0.20573826018456107, "text": "Before the end of 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 19.183311869266586, "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 74.05803202106215, "textFts": "'2024':5 'end':3", "contractId": "i4CqBpauOL1Nbp7WFYnp", "createdTime": 1712526868489, "p... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1712526868897}, {"name": "First Female POTUS", "slug": "first-female-potus", "groupId": "ca1aaabf-07c3-45ba-807a-575fbdaa0bdd", "createdTime": 1712526868899}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "20... | ["us-politics", "first-female-potus", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.25 | 1720021696305 | 1712554062471 | False | old | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
kEWzq8xcmOQrld0xKUYx | pivots-effect-on-manifold-growth-me | 3131.591405817676 | What will be the Pivot's effect on Manifold's growth (add answers) | 1733111940000 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712527876500 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution base on the numbers reported here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/stats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/stats", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hov... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 21.136005414441346, "platformFee": 1.9689205482962686, "liquidityFee": 0} | 626.117743135378 | 730 | AmmonLam | 1720205434658 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 7 | 3 | ANYONE | [{"id": "516c52f50afa", "prob": 0.02, "text": "7d average DAU reach 1800 within 1 month after the pivot", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.495726749093819, "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 353.34200548295064, "textFts": "'1':7 '1800':5 '7d':1 'averag':2 'dau':3 'month':8 'pivot':11 'reach':... | 2 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1712527876729}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1712527876737}] | ["manifold-business-future", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.25 | 1720205431491 | 1720203005470 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.33907479155649517 | JFsAsKaYzRO0s6DNa7VF | {"NO": 243.96470997868974, "YES": 2882.103977062006} | 0 | will-the-pivot-leak-before-it-is-of | 5720.960973374968 | Will the pivot leak before it is officially annouced? | 1713875082517 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.1344674519949125 | True | play | NO | public | 1712528096406 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if someone managed to find out what is \"the pivot\" before James or a manifold staff officially announces it. The details have to be leaked at least 6 hours before the intended official announcement for it to count. And the person who... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.04161965259565218} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 31.407121309642793, "platformFee": 31.407121309642793, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713875082517 | 680 | AmmonLam | 1713875082517 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 33 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1712528096541}, {"name": "Manifold Drama", "slug": "manifold-drama", "groupId": "srdbxZea0H4L09GcXRMF", "createdTime": 1712528096535}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-busines... | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-drama", "manifold-business-future"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713856522078 | 1713826322092 | 0.04 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8069479370576231 | npLtd5panEr4UFPFwpt4 | {"NO": 2280.763455379644, "YES": 913.0981225740766} | 1 | im-going-to-ask-chatgpt-to-generate | 3764.310616072277 | I'm going to ask ChatGPT to generate images of conservative and liberal politicians. Will Manifold see the difference? | 1714406136682 | wUb31hi72zgolOqxm88HDZAP9zy1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.723236387280798 | True | basic | YES | public | 1712528630884 | VerySeriousPoster | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Over the next five days, I will be making five markets asking if ChatGPT is generating an image of a conservative or liberal politician. Each will be open two weeks. If a majority of them resolve correctly, this market resolves Yes.", "type": "text... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.08740645890584753} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.892550584704259, "platformFee": 5.892550584704259, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714406136682 | 1130 | VerySeriousPoster | 1714406136682 | 0 | 57 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1681990719923 | 0 | [{"name": "DALLE3", "slug": "dalle3", "groupId": "2eecc88f-7aec-43e1-b9c4-d9349b466734", "createdTime": 1712528631293}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712528631296}, {"name": "ChatGPT", "slug": "chatgpt", "groupId": "lG71NUBORXAsxGmQZo77", "createdTime": 1712528631295... | ["dalle3", "ai", "chatgpt"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714164804016 | 1712646655225 | 0.91 | wUb31hi72zgolOqxm88HDZAP9zy1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4843260042364852 | Nxd5IfDop9ExiRkYWCgp | {"NO": 940.6649316494521, "YES": 1042.642948650583} | 0.4586835267091816 | will-sports-betting-be-legal-in-at | 592.8752405196167 | Will sports betting be legal in at least 40 states by the end of 2024? | 1735707540000 | wR6BFZBUO7Zvt2tvMt2zdsjlg8k1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.622457850604096 | False | basic | public | 1712530033384 | Charlie Bauer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sports betting in any form, even if not permitted online.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.0471098943160107, "month": -0.04710989431601148} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.2651036380318574, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | CharlieBauer | 1720110534670 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1709850463261 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1712530033518}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1712530033517}, {"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b3ll9Ch9rdbcrTRAbjUf"... | ["us-politics", "sports-default", "sports-betting"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720110531539 | 1717188288269 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.37308887482114467 | zTzpkSINnVfeN0tUzYlw | {"NO": 142.66012585084798, "YES": 321.7301981206294} | 0.20878968496339123 | will-teslas-robotaxi-being-unveiled | 261 | Will Tesla's Robotaxi being unveiled on 8/8 include Lidar? | 1723244340000 | NaOxfCzBKCX4Th76aI4aPMAI4tU2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712530695850 | H. E. L. O - T | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Tesla", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Robotaxi", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " unveil on 8/8,\" the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Te... | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.02093484698359996} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.3171834465684, "platformFee": 0.33836822865162713, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | WillHenry | 1719559916991 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FWillHenry%2FboLlcTpR1s.gondra_aguirre-1971478879?alt=media&token=9dd97b51-04f9-4cd7-a8f8-9c12d9cedfde | 8 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1705284847437 | 0 | [{"name": "Lidar", "slug": "lidar", "groupId": "a0601819-f833-46fb-8452-cd1803b34bda", "createdTime": 1712530696004}, {"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1712530696006}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcr... | ["lidar", "twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "tesla-robotaxi", "tesla", "tesla-ai-day"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719559913933 | 1714233866558 |
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