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0.9546090791179137 | orDnDs8ZDPVPSQ7k3zUU | {"NO": 3490.2631293931977, "YES": 771.555863900901} | 1 | will-thomas-tuchel-remain-bayerns-c | 3490.664837729585 | Will Thomas Tuchel remain Bayern's coach throughout the rest of the season? | 1716039155157 | vcRnogNTojb2z8RejfxaYDwYs6B3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | YES | public | 1712425339170 | A. Dings | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Tuchel is supposed to leave Bayern at the end of the season, but after losing against Heidenheim, there are rumors that he might end up being sacked earlier. If Tuchel steps down of his own accord, that also resolves NO. Resolves YES if he is still... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.543808525408847, "platformFee": 9.543808525408847, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716039155157 | 1000 | ADings | 1716039155157 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKyQmiXuUz7vNTKFEGxzvoGhgYnrN03vcCFlsSwpc7SDg=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1709564544314 | 0 | [{"name": "Germany", "slug": "germany", "groupId": "0egO7eYCaC5HnLwGN8tR", "createdTime": 1712425339444}, {"name": "Bundesliga", "slug": "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "groupId": "7c53ccd3-1a40-41ca-bd88-dedac17a91a9", "createdTime": 1712425339583}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", ... | ["germany", "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "soccer", "sports-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715944386837 | 1715472668048 | 0.99 | vcRnogNTojb2z8RejfxaYDwYs6B3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8IeXrxCT7SsiRVexByWu | wrestlemania-40-night-1-prop-bets | 8833.567492377855 | WrestleMania 40 Night 1 Prop Bets! [Add your own!] | 1712459653955 | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1712426280109 | Panfilo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I reserve the right to resolve any question to N/A if it is redundant, meta, in bad taste, or too confusing. If you have ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "any", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " concerns about a question's clar... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712459653955 | 925 | Panfilo | 1712533820335 | 0 | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a8f36100d8b7", "prob": 0.0006350722931679173, "text": "Team Rhodes/Rollins defeats Team Rock/Reigns", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.4743152289254222, "userId": "U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2320.017654718508, "textFts": "'defeat':3 'rhodes/rollins':2 'rock/reigns':5 'team':1,4", "contr... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1695066009476 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1712426280471}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1712426280470}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4",... | ["sports-default", "entertainment", "fun", "combat-sports", "wrestling", "tv", "prop-bets", "fighting", "wwe"] | 0.25 | 1712459624619 | 1712533819659 | 0.03 | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
fSGBkooZ6BY6UQoCrGUo | gpt5-releases-when | 1526.3625143296035 | GPT-5 releases when? | 1767167940000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712427491034 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market tests whether month-long buckets work decently for numeric markets. may N/A. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.775967081170884, "platformFee": 1.1818917118396175, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Bayesian | 1719073193390 | 0 | 20 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "44bbc69fde21", "prob": 0.0002788775219542655, "text": "2024-2024.08", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.4153253027246343, "userId": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1488.8596073422434, "textFts": "'-2024.08':2 '2024':1", "contractId": "fSGBkooZ6BY6UQoCrGUo", "createdTime": 1712427491035, "pro... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "AGI", "slug": "agi", "groupId": "3cbc32f4-d3ca-405d-882a-dcdb194eb74f", "createdTime": 1712427491660}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712427491679}] | ["agi", "ai"] | 0.25 | 1719073189947 | 1716842733050 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5040666534417774 | GMTQVr1D24zeAmXxzzpO | {"NO": 125.00000000000003, "YES": 115.23809523809521} | 0.5243757431629014 | will-vt-outperform-vti-over-the-nex | 6.9999999999999645 | Will VT outperform VTI over the next 50 years? | 3290561940000 | wn3guzrcbYdRDr8lRFlobBEnRq52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712429117591 | Robin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reinvesting all dividends, will the total percentage return of VT from the opening price on April 7th, 2024 to the closing price on April 9th, 2074 be greater than VTI's?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | pie | 1712961400540 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKldPg3IsxzoAs_UY7bxXVh-JuBTwHgAfA3H1o9BgWK=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1711856381867 | 0 | [{"name": "US Stock Indices", "slug": "us-stock-indices", "groupId": "6c92e7cd-1bed-4ccc-89a2-e83fa09b7b0a", "createdTime": 1712429117832}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1712429117839}] | ["us-stock-indices", "stocks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712961397231 | 1712464458989 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8mK43nBfHjfLbiDunn7Z | which-jobs-will-not-be-taken-over-b | 4907.99515054273 | Which jobs will not be taken over by robots before 2035? | 2051326740000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712430714771 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1775221660984963431"}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If ambiguous, resolves to manifold moderators' opinion in 2035. May resolve to a percentage if ambiguous. I'm open to ideas for more specific requirements.", "type": "text"}]}, ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.799287394986179, "platformFee": 9.09760316856645, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 3145 | Bayesian | 1719469283586 | 0 | 61 | 2 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0a88846fbf4e", "prob": 0.8666837896265606, "text": "Politicians", "index": 0, "poolNo": 389.5306543488874, "userId": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 59.918913084154866, "textFts": "'politician':1", "contractId": "8mK43nBfHjfLbiDunn7Z", "createdTime": 1712430714772, "probChanges": {... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "Robotics", "slug": "robotics", "groupId": "w6Q4c8YIK0W5GMslvGbd", "createdTime": 1712430714986}, {"name": "Automation", "slug": "automation", "groupId": "6c86feb6-c372-40ed-921a-50ebdffa6f52", "createdTime": 1712430714990}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 171... | ["robotics", "automation", "ai", "jobs"] | 0.25 | 1719469000810 | 1719469282113 | False | liquidity | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.45799874320066136 | 6sM42GTa1OqVQkgR4sPt | {"NO": 110.45719909685727, "YES": 586.6288212370794} | 0.13726833373142386 | will-kraven-the-hunter-be-the-lowes | 622.8839518746245 | Will Kraven the Hunter (2024) be the lowest grossing Sony Marvel movie? | 1737187140000 | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712431398079 | Matty B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There’s bad, then there’s Sony Marvel bad. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Madame Web (2024)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt11057302/?ref_=bo_se_r_1", "class": "break-anywhere hov... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.2436134441480706, "platformFee": 2.2436134441480706, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 240 | mattyb | 1714325612013 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697395701475 | 0 | [{"name": "Superheroes", "slug": "superheroes", "groupId": "JhXvNhB0adYCrGlu88ok", "createdTime": 1712431398217}, {"name": "Marvel Cinematic Universe", "slug": "marvel-cinematic-universe", "groupId": "hIQdGqOuPcrwWMsQGhYd", "createdTime": 1712431398222}, {"name": "Spider-Man", "slug": "spiderman", "groupId": "7xx90OAIS... | ["superheroes", "marvel-cinematic-universe", "spiderman", "movies", "comics", "marvel", "television-film", "entertainment", "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "cinema"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714325608754 | 1714220279012 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
f3e20i7vGGyQKVdo9DTX | what-is-the-craziest-thing-that-wil | 964.5727242492169 | What is the craziest thing that will happen at Vibeclipse? | 1712681016974 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | basic | 4e6bc06cded3 | public | 1712431997915 | SG | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will pick an answer according to my own subjective judgment. Feel free to summarize your crazy incidents in the comments if you like...", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712681097093 | 1180 | SG | 1712681016974 | 0 | 23 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "89f79b2ed33f", "prob": 0.2174511375529729, "text": "The eclipse", "index": 0, "poolNo": 134.17639314360233, "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 482.86518527037975, "textFts": "'eclips':2", "contractId": "f3e20i7vGGyQKVdo9DTX", "resolverId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "cr... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1639156540325 | 0 | [{"name": "Vibecamp", "slug": "vibecamp", "groupId": "d1e873dd-c328-4a3f-a39a-64b5da070546", "createdTime": 1712431998144}, {"name": "vibeclipse", "slug": "vibeclipse", "groupId": "aec74a29-56b2-49c8-88a4-e8928071c8f3", "createdTime": 1712431998143}] | ["vibecamp", "vibeclipse"] | 0.25 | 1712634440576 | 1712435023166 | {"4e6bc06cded3": 100} | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | True | prob-desc | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.47294927641817125 | Y3Z7Rerka7PYs84D2W27 | {"NO": 1197.3724443653393, "YES": 810.3561663268998} | 0.570061553771115 | will-an-ai-generate-the-best-optica | 534.3297712385009 | Will an AI generate the best optical illusion of any year before 2030? | 1893560340000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.622235677098338 | False | basic | public | 1712432364852 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the \"Best Illusion of the Year\" contest, at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://illusionoftheyear.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://illusionoftheyear.com/", "class": "break-anywhe... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0008411637547127704} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.929166106868694, "platformFee": 0.16701977284683175, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Bayesian | 1719073293045 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1712432364993}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712432365079}, {"name": "Optical Illusions", "slug": "optical-illusions", "groupId": "91107bb5-e395-45fc-b00c-08b... | ["technology-default", "ai", "optical-illusions"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719073289971 | 1712434333452 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.46549539450597743 | OvNCHZCrO1oIpf3jQJH6 | {"NO": 815.840807789466, "YES": 813.3187154641038} | 0.4662658376668379 | will-my-agile-space-industries-opti | 20 | Will my Agile Space Industries options be worth something? | 1806645540000 | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.260957890210367 | False | play | public | 1712432485485 | Evan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I started with ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Agile Space Industries", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://agilespaceindustries.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:deco... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 815 | EvanDaniel | 1712436507434 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNNBEv2GcorWHiElPC6VlaynzKPlKxwXytwbHWc54FNIs=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1691250349596 | 0 | [{"name": "Aerospace", "slug": "aerospace", "groupId": "2379d4e3-a569-487a-804f-d7a8e79bc23c", "createdTime": 1712432485674}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1712432485688}] | ["aerospace", "stocks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712435270579 | 1712436506814 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.32395721854346565 | 8RBqiOkTV4Ec22lY2vyv | {"NO": 812.1889347760001, "YES": 1384.2933782866821} | 0.2194529783898377 | will-we-be-able-to-control-the-weat | 2180.7584643109994 | Will we be able to control the weather before 2045? | 2366945940000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.674427100309138 | False | basic | public | 1712433187933 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"We\" refers to humans, human-generated tools, AIs, etc. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Control the weather refers to being able to cause ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "every", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0006170174412800378} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5299711180783346, "platformFee": 0.4781440785512002, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1015 | Bayesian | 1719073312701 | 0 | 54 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "🪸 Climate", "slug": "climate", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw", "createdTime": 1712433188114}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1712433188115}, {"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1712... | ["climate", "science-default", "futurism"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719073309619 | 1712684721931 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.656002283137249 | 7F5vhPfQvARpTZ5XYGp2 | {"NO": 4837.457780376614, "YES": 139.11572858045122} | 1 | will-someone-solve-vitor-taelins-ch | 6948.154342600216 | Will someone beat Victor Taelin's A::B prompting challenge this year? | 1712517157320 | Kr23YYpkdnU4JFFqHr2NxEV6PvN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5273655811218854 | True | play | YES | public | 1712433496546 | JGY | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1776677635491344744"}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.14147910373453776} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712517157320 | 515 | jgyou | 1712517157320 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1675703905738 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712433496695}, {"name": "LLMs", "slug": "llms", "groupId": "7AISXitieE7l07dhslU8", "createdTime": 1712433496696}, {"name": "LLM prompts", "slug": "llm-prompts", "groupId": "egFX91kLX8kmO14jCh9d", "createdTime": 1712433496699}] | ["ai", "llms", "llm-prompts"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712517150256 | 1712499413745 | 0.99 | Kr23YYpkdnU4JFFqHr2NxEV6PvN2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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d7RswPy7zaWmBHYUPylY | how-many-viewers-will-the-iowasouth | 723.6006185492713 | How many viewers will the Iowa-South Carolina women’s NCAA Championship have? | 1712609601458 | y8kis13ETQRzHSbLQ0QMhqhwbGX2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | basic | 34bc077a50d6 | public | 1712438365878 | Conor Sen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712609601458 | 1585.5 | ConorSen | 1712609601458 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL41UfGcPZd6xYupk7k-WUP7Ow8laRn0wALFOA6OGsBgy4=s96-c | 17 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "0e65cd3d8268", "prob": 0.025100028809857927, "text": "Under 14 million", "index": 0, "poolNo": 17.84537537330299, "userId": "y8kis13ETQRzHSbLQ0QMhqhwbGX2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 693.1249389832406, "textFts": "'14':2 'million':3", "contractId": "d7RswPy7zaWmBHYUPylY", "resolverId": "y8kis13ETQRzHSbLQ0QMh... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700701552081 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b3ll9Ch9rdbcrTRAbjUf", "createdTime": 1712438366108}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1712438366109}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hG... | ["sports-betting", "entertainment", "sports-default", "television-film"] | 0.25 | 1712522639183 | {"34bc077a50d6": 100} | y8kis13ETQRzHSbLQ0QMhqhwbGX2 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
oZkrNvPgyxjThglRjfoU | would-you-vote-for-the-leopards-eat | 0 | Would you vote for the Leopards Eating People's Faces Party? | 1735711140000 | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1712438960793 | Plasma Ballin' | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F2ZNVNgUpPl.u1?alt=media&token=0940d8da-8cad-4f48-a8b8-22c1d05fc558", "title": null}}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | PlasmaBallin | 1712636829074 | 0 | 105 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668786016313 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1712438961899}, {"name": "Animals", "slug": "animals", "groupId": "f1b6760b-1baa-46e4-ab4f-a70259273eba", "createdTime": 1712438961901}] | ["politics-default", "animals"] | 0.25 | 1712636828156 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7482933033336301 | wOIy6YFJtGpjPAX8G1pY | {"NO": 251.89196119540347, "YES": 809.6309654273125} | 1 | if-someone-solves-taelins-10000-llm | 20683.682838732566 | If someone solves Taelin's $10,000 LLM symbol manipulation challenge within a month, will they receive the money? | 1713220130073 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.8847959011514757 | True | play | YES | public | 1712439562931 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://twitter.com/VictorTaelin/status/1776677635491344744", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/VictorTaelin/status/1776677635491344744", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-prim... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5195020426322665} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713254395698 | 720 | Bayesian | 1713258375001 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712439563074}] | ["ai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713219402113 | 1713258374109 | 0.48 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.53608386174239 | yR6AeIP3VYjTzyNWZ5sK | {"NO": 657.9855747694306, "YES": 83.85166552080648} | 0.9006726100167942 | will-stanford-return-to-standarized-324a44013cf4 | 825.897872517981 | Will Stanford return to standarized testing requirements (SAT / ACT) for undergraduate admissions in 2025? | 1767254340000 | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712440097001 | Ernie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.2783143448279656} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.471171337936239, "platformFee": 0.18648664890804642, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 220 | Ernie | 1717916604659 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668384110640 | 0 | [{"name": "Stanford", "slug": "stanford", "groupId": "5d3e362a-d2e6-4edc-9f33-b4bc449d07ee", "createdTime": 1712440097181}, {"name": "Higher Education", "slug": "higher-education", "groupId": "t2sumbJ9zbPDTYzX1H5X", "createdTime": 1712440097179}] | ["stanford", "higher-education"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717916601563 | 1717916463109 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.45967396424000473 | L7eeolO0W4BOdDROCeHa | {"NO": 912.0750775425523, "YES": 1071.5274558324145} | 0.4199999999999997 | will-candace-owens-talk-to-nick-fue | 325.2973257082003 | Will Candace Owens talk to Nick Fuentes in 2024 | 1735685940000 | A1SO0P7VIVcmKYpOyWrBC7Te0Tq2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.699855198847235 | False | basic | public | 1712440910858 | Slash Spielberg | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.220446049250313e-16, "week": -2.220446049250313e-16, "month": -2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.2047556836712596, "platformFee": 3.2047556836712596, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SlashSpielberg | 1715959476549 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKOo4GxYI-LK8hLrYfe5EQuLzNYBt8DsKu7tnKdose9=s96-c | 11 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1695545892969 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1712440911005}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1712440911011}] | ["us-politics", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715959473369 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
XkNsfoHNl5ISvKEPY8Pp | manifold-stats-page-2024-megamarket | 63 | Manifold Stats Page 2024 Megamarket | 1735707540000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712442200252 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Options resolve according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/stats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/stats", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-pri... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.0474093656516841, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 555 | Bayesian | 1719073355896 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "9f117eafd7b4", "prob": 0.32739177882866505, "text": "$20,000+ of mana sold in the last 30d, at some point", "index": 0, "poolNo": 27.17685235262305, "userId": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 55.833333333333336, "textFts": "'000':2 '20':1 '30d':9 'last':8 'mana':4 'point':12 'sold':... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "Statistics", "slug": "statistics", "groupId": "5a0a1696-a330-4a0c-8ad5-a90208ab3984", "createdTime": 1712442200479}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712442200491}] | ["statistics", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 1719073352819 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1ur6cLcS5Dsbu9YkBscK | communism-or-capitalism | 0 | Communism or Capitalism? | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1712443559811 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No market for this poll. Which do you prefer to live under?", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | KeenenW | 1712634131327 | 0 | 80 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1712443559965}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1712443559971}, {"name": "Communism", "slug": "communism", "groupId": "de415ac0-ca6c-43c3-8000-0... | ["politics-default", "economics-default", "communism", "capitalism"] | 0.25 | 1712634130590 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
TCabeFM35Czp3wyHLYR8 | lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-56 | 0 | [Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 56) | 1712527140000 | v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1712444478542 | komplexkonjugat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let's play Civ6!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Anyone can add instructions. Instructions can be composite, but are executed atomically (either fully or not at all). Upon mark... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712531655003 | 125 | komplexkonjugat | 1712532612149 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0987155da1b0", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Create a building with available builder", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25, "userId": "I2bVfkY49dQ54suiyzZ2SN15QZA3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25, "textFts": "'avail':5 'build':3 'builder':6 'creat':1", "contractId": "TCabeFM35Czp3wyHLYR8", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "v... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1698548141721 | 0 | [{"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1712444478688}, {"name": "ManifoldPlaysCiv6", "slug": "manifoldplaysciv6", "groupId": "5fb3f729-faaa-425d-9c1b-c04c78abe1b4", "createdTime": 1712444478700}] | ["gaming", "manifoldplaysciv6"] | 0.25 | 1712532611573 | 0.5 | v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
v4DjvC2D7MflbAoyjf7e | how-many-days-from-april-6th-will-t | 322.9571841873043 | How many days from April 6th will the “Big Pivot” be announced | 1714423973686 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | 8a51e96154e9 | public | 1712445194827 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How many days from April 6th will the “Big Pivot be announced. Resolves to 50 if over 50 days from now.", "type": "text"}]}]} | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.619713570482925, "platformFee": 3.619713570482925, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714423973686 | 260 | JamesF | 1714423973686 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 6 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "034ddc4d63b4", "prob": 0.001559258241731643, "text": "1-2", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.5331876390864685, "userId": "nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 341.4163527361717, "textFts": "'-2':2 '1':1", "contractId": "v4DjvC2D7MflbAoyjf7e", "resolverId": "nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2", "created... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1712445195153}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712445195156}] | ["manifold-business-future", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 1713898960819 | 1714423926935 | {"8a51e96154e9": 100} | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5009760688928928 | d8mVn2QHd3JVtSavhrZr | {"NO": 134.8621465727059, "YES": 145.2380952380952} | 0.4824529511705885 | will-nvda-jan-2025-1300000-puts-be | 15 | Will NVDA Jan 2025 1300.000 put's be priced higher on 31-April-2024 relative to 1-April-2024? | 1714535940000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712445363859 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -3.885780586188048e-16, "week": -3.885780586188048e-16, "month": -3.885780586188048e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | StochasticParrot | 1712606230634 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | [{"name": "GPU", "slug": "gpu", "groupId": "0e284bb8-81b7-48fc-8b3b-c459de7d87a8", "createdTime": 1712445364004}, {"name": "Tech Stocks", "slug": "tech-stocks", "groupId": "pK06hNX8MsNw8zaBsX2N", "createdTime": 1712445364021}, {"name": "Nvidia", "slug": "nvidia", "groupId": "43f31fc9-9568-44c6-842c-7c9e091b81c3", "crea... | ["gpu", "tech-stocks", "nvidia"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712606227400 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5079485238455712 | 1OYhdEJqdyKZrve2TZxm | {"NO": 130, "YES": 110.90909090909088} | 0.5475113122171943 | is-there-quantum-entanglement-betwe | 10 | Is there quantum entanglement between Jose Luis ricon and Jeremy Nixon? | 4165534740000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712445428880 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": -3.3306690738754696e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | StochasticParrot | 1712445745964 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712445742630 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
WFWCS6hGLahri2PFSsbQ | which-jockey-will-have-the-most-win-2e4e2de40520 | 545 | Which jockey will have the most wins at Keeneland on April 7th? | 1712524560000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1712445690832 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Results verified by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Equibase.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://Equibase.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:und... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712525763071 | 225 | ovals | 1712524560000 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "57211b9956cd", "prob": 0.05, "text": "Irad Ortiz, Jr.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.132351165318198, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 169, "textFts": "'irad':1 'jr':3 'ortiz':2", "contractId": "WFWCS6hGLahri2PFSsbQ", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCM... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | [{"name": "Horse racing", "slug": "horse-racing", "groupId": "ef96178c-314c-4aed-be84-e13d3875ff06", "createdTime": 1712445691036}, {"name": "Jockey", "slug": "jockey", "groupId": "383cbd3e-b514-4419-ba36-e121d65d7b2f", "createdTime": 1712445691042}, {"name": "Keeneland", "slug": "keeneland", "groupId": "d18116ec-df21-... | ["horse-racing", "jockey", "keeneland", "sports-default"] | 0.25 | 1712524407263 | 0.05 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4541944514623986 | wyel07D2wYiiBZADHPsb | {"NO": 131.08318411047966, "YES": 200.0000000000001} | 0.3529213519079347 | will-prmshra-end-up-dating-basedbef | 59.999999999999936 | Will Parmita Mishra (@prmshra) end up dating @basedbeffjezos, @bayeslord, @adammaj, or lex fridman? | 2934853140000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712445697980 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-16, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-16, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | StochasticParrot | 1714251009677 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712518579292 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Je1jt32x5ufjINMannrC | which-jockey-will-have-the-most-win-cc9c6e52defb | 1604.7648636183724 | Which jockey will have the most wins at Keeneland on April 10th? | 1712781840000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1712445882605 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Results verified by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Equibase.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://Equibase.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:und... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712783933632 | 450 | ovals | 1712781840000 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "bf2fc2704e34", "prob": 0.13, "text": "Irad Ortiz, Jr.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 23.410503986540835, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 154.99999999999997, "textFts": "'irad':1 'jr':3 'ortiz':2", "contractId": "Je1jt32x5ufjINMannrC", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIs... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | [{"name": "Jockey", "slug": "jockey", "groupId": "383cbd3e-b514-4419-ba36-e121d65d7b2f", "createdTime": 1712445882829}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1712445882832}, {"name": "Horse racing", "slug": "horse-racing", "groupId": "ef96178c-314c-4aed-be84-... | ["jockey", "sports-default", "horse-racing", "keeneland"] | 0.25 | 1712781799538 | 0.11 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | IU4YQ9MUO50rzfuSVSP5 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-bayeslord-get-a-waifu-or-babby | 0 | Will @bayeslord get a waifu or babby by 2031 | 1933905540000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712445913906 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1712462586750 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712462586102 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
jqS0dXTYwPrQqnSegjbh | when-will-the-final-resolved-market | 882.7521666733502 | When will the final resolved market on Manifold be resolved? | 6469217940000 | fIldPqVOGBVA3kl2fk8ci9Yiju52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 7.79723899079808 | False | play | public | 1712446335562 | Zac Parker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When will Manifold's final market to be resolved, well, resolve. This can be for any reason (end of Manifold, complete restructuring of Manifold as a platform, end of the world, or any other potential scenario). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "para... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24.40790014936955, "platformFee": 2.6184072281840765, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 6546.25 | ZacParker | 1718668738799 | 0 | 17 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "1b24a498e0b0", "prob": 0.1169730832978022, "text": "2024-2028", "index": 0, "poolNo": 392.3435851640756, "userId": "fIldPqVOGBVA3kl2fk8ci9Yiju52", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2961.792033927084, "textFts": "'-2028':2 '2024':1", "contractId": "jqS0dXTYwPrQqnSegjbh", "createdTime": 1712446335562, "probChanges": ... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1648110702205 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712446335900}, {"name": "🌐 Internet", "slug": "internet", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1712446335903}, {"name": "Meta-markets", "slug": "metamarkets", "groupId": "0112083b-1b7d-4e2a-80e8-92... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "internet", "metamarkets"] | 0.25 | 1718668735265 | 1715945939064 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2221629629334568 | W9HKQlDUgpGUkhmMpIHA | {"NO": 956.662744201466, "YES": 1022.0791830406246} | 0.21094323668248477 | will-we-be-able-to-control-the-weat-ae971df8b4cd | 413.21428160963046 | Will we be able to control the weather before 2050? | 2524712340000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.662229601622919 | False | basic | public | 1712446980447 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"We\" refers to humans, human-generated tools, AIs, etc.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Control the weather refers to being able to cause ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "every", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "b... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.03618814306076351} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.7300197603203884, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Bayesian | 1719073369402 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "🪸 Climate", "slug": "climate", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw", "createdTime": 1712446980582}, {"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1712446980595}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1712... | ["climate", "futurism", "science-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719073366286 | 1712467651934 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6ID1jgPT9gzS3qrhLh3V | are-financial-insecurities-preventi | 0 | Would you have more kids if you had more money? | Y2b1TJ7nvAR0MqiQ2lLKllwVBXd2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1712447515565 | Quillist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "/If you have no kids, would having more money make you have one.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | Quillist | 1712467552168 | 0 | 49 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1702722697077 | 0 | [{"name": "Society & people", "slug": "society-people", "groupId": "7fjJ2KqfKf6bmHPG7gIG", "createdTime": 1712447515784}, {"name": "❤️🔥 Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3", "createdTime": 1712447515787}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27H... | ["society-people", "sex-and-love", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
m9mYawkiGZdARoVEVMqh | who-will-win-masters-league-season-09b8064c0d3d | 4046.5699839315507 | Who will win Masters League Season 13 (May)? | 1717268244193 | 3ovGrYGPkpWNszlR2rIBdknDFtp1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | 1f28508d8c7d | public | 1712448061729 | Unown | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Manifold user who has the highest amount of \"mana earned\" in ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Manifold's Season 13 Masters league", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.820952485714106, "platformFee": 6.103937707286673, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717268244193 | 540 | Unown | 1717268244193 | 0 | 12 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "faf75f0acd45", "prob": 0.00017339603855649627, "text": "No one", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.5594133343986414, "userId": "3ovGrYGPkpWNszlR2rIBdknDFtp1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3225.6580888398057, "textFts": "'one':2", "contractId": "m9mYawkiGZdARoVEVMqh", "resolverId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "create... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1704958183293 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712448061990}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbahk6EJpQP9aKuZiX", "createdTime": 1712448061995}, {"name": "Manifold Leagues", "slug": "manifold-leagues", "groupId": "quyvUYBA... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-users", "manifold-leagues", "masters-league", "nonpredictive"] | 0.25 | False | 1717266600252 | 1717267534994 | {"1f28508d8c7d": 100} | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | True | prob-desc | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.25078894820993797 | pi3izFRu6lrOtlh807b7 | {"NO": 109.58092423006163, "YES": 520.5294530719959} | 0.06582942381542552 | if-trump-wins-the-us-presidential-e | 495 | If Trump wins the US presidential election, will at least 100 people die in riots/protests against his presidency? | 1767247140000 | aT0xhM8JgiS51x23FlpDFp1gV6H3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712448592340 | Nathan Nguyen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Deaths must be due to physical violence. Must be confirmed in a reputable source.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -6.938893903907228e-17, "week": -6.938893903907228e-17, "month": -6.938893903907228e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | NathanNguyen | 1712710026995 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1654305992228 | 0 | [{"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1712448592780}, {"name": "Conditional markets", "slug": "conditional-markets", "groupId": "N0398xzZ9qTQFgy6Zny0", "createdTime": 1712448592790}, {"name": "🐘 Republican Party", "slug": "magaland", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE... | ["donald-trump", "conditional-markets", "magaland"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712710023737 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
FMl1LI0OArsZmqUgUyd8 | how-many-horses-will-start-in-the-2-1b572ca13a83 | 328.24117981991594 | How many horses will start in the 2024 Preakness? | 1716073260000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CHOOSE_MULTIPLE | public | 1712448761351 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Results verified by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Equibase.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://Equibase.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:und... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.0810010049732366, "platformFee": 3.0810010049732366, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716089240439 | 120 | ovals | 1716073260000 | 0 | 3 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "b72fa5077877", "prob": 0.0014983767180795132, "text": "1-2", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.5371980761986057, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 357.9828387855185, "textFts": "'-2':2 '1':1", "contractId": "FMl1LI0OArsZmqUgUyd8", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "create... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | [{"name": "Preakness", "slug": "preakness", "groupId": "16610603-0beb-455b-b9ea-9a8cb0f88c12", "createdTime": 1712448761719}, {"name": "Horse racing", "slug": "horse-racing", "groupId": "ef96178c-314c-4aed-be84-e13d3875ff06", "createdTime": 1712448761727}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2h... | ["preakness", "horse-racing", "sports-default", "racing-sports"] | 0.25 | 1716063553499 | {"662e8ad8cdc9": 6.245413140422002, "c125bfba4d1f": 93.754586859578} | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13262866658517442 | YZhwKZLxxQ35Xsv59Vou | {"NO": 891.5108651741541, "YES": 1480.5115605745395} | 0.08431294352137839 | will-the-roomtemperature-supercondu-570a7bab4f26 | 764.8340425201023 | Will the room-temperature superconductor replication market get above 10% before its close | 1735793940000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.038258884402872 | False | basic | public | 1712450476608 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Today (April 6th) it would cost 43,000M to buy the market up to 11%, and that would probably burn more tha... | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -5.980721522966248e-05} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.005869346249259208, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Bayesian | 1719073380770 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "Derivative Markets", "slug": "derivative-markets", "groupId": "9qGjaJrSyTvLCZ2KcJ1m", "createdTime": 1712450476746}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1712450476758}, {"name": "⚡ LK-99", "slug": "lk99", "groupId": "8e00e9a7-70cb-4266-9e88-7a45... | ["derivative-markets", "science-default", "lk99", "superconductivity"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719073377705 | 1712453380732 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5935727149406854 | S6bkuaZFFzVh239ivJYv | {"NO": 344.0802516162868, "YES": 110.51417182195068} | 0.8197250580513248 | will-i-get-into-a-masters | 223.19131671036408 | Will I get into a masters? | 1715106540000 | tPfue8YoJQP5Mjb9AzB4kmFYEtk2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712476811441 | Shyla Gupta | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Applied late (march)?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Kings - Msc Finance and Economics ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "UCL - Msc Finance (Interview done)", "type": "text"}]}, {"typ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9672533113174361, "platformFee": 0.9672533113174361, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 180 | ShylaGupta | 1715052340447 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKXJ3i8dy3MEsVZT09F-mN4HqdorjR_8iit8xnbWETmzyWxsg=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 8 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712475400466 | 0 | [{"name": "College Admissions", "slug": "college-admissions", "groupId": "1dyUqp3vyXcGeRwiCl3S", "createdTime": 1712476811582}, {"name": "Colleges & Universities", "slug": "colleges-universities", "groupId": "3qsRSyWVqskVH54fz1CR", "createdTime": 1712476811591}, {"name": "uk university", "slug": "uk-university", "group... | ["college-admissions", "colleges-universities", "uk-university"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715052337258 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4875728655896369 | BPDjvhyeyB0T6kBTTdky | {"NO": 78.25648143425745, "YES": 257.4775109554147} | 0.22432121083409626 | will-alexplainable-recognize-at-lea-f650be308b5c | 220.9782455360555 | Will Alexplainable recognize at least one class with at least 70% accuracy, autonomously? | 1717711140000 | Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712478004728 | ^,^ Épi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[in construction, links to github and to the lesswrong post will be added when released]", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Alexplainable ", "type": "text", "ma... | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.446511108305914, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | epiphanie_gedeon | 1717648736912 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzht0r_Wd81YAWA-OvNNPddGK7Y7RC-HxeNO25a=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1652999248121 | 0 | [{"name": "alexplainable", "slug": "alexplainable", "groupId": "e4b07e7b-6e3e-42d1-b6c0-8b3a57086c8a", "createdTime": 1712478004934}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712478004995}, {"name": "🤖❤️ AI Alignment", "slug": "ai-alignment", "groupId": "p8Tmu38lHhN1JQavwAmR",... | ["alexplainable", "ai", "ai-alignment", "constructability", "ai-safety"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717648733754 |
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