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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.5638315358214098 | kYOrLMvUR0sf2D8ZJV5G | {"NO": 243.7553118721682, "YES": 169.0217158681098} | 0.650869789185813 | conditional-on-the-betting-tax-will | 34 | Conditional on the betting tax, will Manifold's monthly active users drop below 7,000 at any point before EOY 2024? | 1735707540000 | vPuZEsvT9VSFFke5h5TQaEkHWdo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713146721199 | cc6 ♠︎ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is no betting tax imposed during 2024, resolves N/A", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "During the time period of a betting tax (I say time period in the case that Manifold adds a tax then later removes it), if... | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | cc6 | 1713558682286 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1666242293960 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1713146721392}, {"name": "Manifold User Retention", "slug": "manifold-user-retention", "groupId": "6b8FKYZGzLnb5hYtn8oG", "createdTime": 1713146721390}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6... | ["manifold-business-future", "manifold-user-retention", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713238707863 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
rLJx9xK2YiCxcMDffoui | i-am-going-to-have-claude-opus-chat | 1018.1380435570443 | I am going to have Claude Opus, ChatGPT 4, and Gemini 1.5 fight to get into the Salty Spitoon. Who will win? | 1714535940000 | wUb31hi72zgolOqxm88HDZAP9zy1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713147649600 | VerySeriousPoster | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here's how it works:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will pit two of the AIs against each other at a time and use the third as a judge. Each AI will have three rounds of debate against each other, arguing why they... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.353378013760015, "platformFee": 4.353378013760015, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 980 | VerySeriousPoster | 1714460722272 | 0 | 30 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "265fac6968a8", "prob": 0.44832738923450544, "text": "Claude", "index": 0, "poolNo": 246.65974450163947, "userId": "wUb31hi72zgolOqxm88HDZAP9zy1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 303.51798370452144, "textFts": "'claud':1", "contractId": "rLJx9xK2YiCxcMDffoui", "createdTime": 1713147649600, "probChanges": {"day": -... | 9 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1681990719923 | 0 | [{"name": "Claude 3", "slug": "claude-3", "groupId": "d4e80bac-83d1-4046-bc71-d88f05c360be", "createdTime": 1713147649892}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1713147649896}, {"name": "ChatGPT", "slug": "chatgpt", "groupId": "lG71NUBORXAsxGmQZo77", "createdTime": 171314764... | ["claude-3", "ai", "chatgpt", "google-gemini"] | 0.25 | 1714460718790 | 1713175642002 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
aCoi2DEVBI5mSzoz0sRl | how-many-twisted-teas-will-argentwe | 49.99999999999999 | How many Twisted Teas will ArgenTweana drink in total? | 1713671940000 | BCB4A9Kju2QjpCGecBiwoSUAjJi2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | bc7b4647598f | public | 1713148212961 | evan jones | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Over the course of the afternoon, how many 12 oz cans of Twisted Tea can the 11 members of ArgenTweana finish?", "type": "text"}]}]} | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2598027228449507, "platformFee": 1.2598027228449507, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713932931525 | 180 | evanjonescfa2 | 1713671940000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLhjAUbJQCXujKewZM2OYxy9M4s5KjBk7P3Ti510I0LB-Xnbd1Y=s96-c | 5 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "b8ba345094f9", "prob": 0.01766084744432815, "text": "1-6", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.0793276291836715, "userId": "BCB4A9Kju2QjpCGecBiwoSUAjJi2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 115.65724394464847, "textFts": "'-6':2 '1':1", "contractId": "aCoi2DEVBI5mSzoz0sRl", "resolverId": "BCB4A9Kju2QjpCGecBiwoSUAjJi2", "created... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1713147765197 | 0 | [{"name": "World War Twea @ Duke [April 19, 2024]", "slug": "world-war-twea-duke-april-19-2024", "groupId": "c50ddb31-bb19-4f8c-8e0f-770cbb7a5907", "createdTime": 1713148213375}] | ["world-war-twea-duke-april-19-2024"] | 0.25 | 1713640831304 | {"bc7b4647598f": 100} | BCB4A9Kju2QjpCGecBiwoSUAjJi2 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
UusHSbEskitUmDe1kEw5 | how-many-twisted-teas-will-tweagypt | 39.99999999999999 | How many Twisted Teas will Tweagypt drink in total? | 1713671940000 | BCB4A9Kju2QjpCGecBiwoSUAjJi2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | 66e709b20071 | public | 1713148540977 | evan jones | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Over the course of the afternoon, how many 12 oz cans of Twisted Tea can the 11 members of Tweagypt finish?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713932918220 | 140 | evanjonescfa2 | 1713671940000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLhjAUbJQCXujKewZM2OYxy9M4s5KjBk7P3Ti510I0LB-Xnbd1Y=s96-c | 3 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "e138e2c5b10f", "prob": 0.07505009442671975, "text": "1-6", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.597843375549829, "userId": "BCB4A9Kju2QjpCGecBiwoSUAjJi2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 56.66581539358396, "textFts": "'-6':2 '1':1", "contractId": "UusHSbEskitUmDe1kEw5", "resolverId": "BCB4A9Kju2QjpCGecBiwoSUAjJi2", "createdTi... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1713147765197 | 0 | [{"name": "World War Twea @ Duke [April 19, 2024]", "slug": "world-war-twea-duke-april-19-2024", "groupId": "c50ddb31-bb19-4f8c-8e0f-770cbb7a5907", "createdTime": 1713148541285}] | ["world-war-twea-duke-april-19-2024"] | 0.25 | 1713324119540 | {"66e709b20071": 100} | BCB4A9Kju2QjpCGecBiwoSUAjJi2 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
yUqDhern7mDBVxLebYtO | how-many-twisted-teas-will-tweadan | 30.00000000000004 | How many Twisted Teas will Tweaden drink in total? | 1713932900093 | BCB4A9Kju2QjpCGecBiwoSUAjJi2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | 00c651cd7855 | public | 1713148716662 | evan jones | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Over the course of the afternoon, how many 12 oz cans of Twisted Tea can the 12 members of Tweaden finish?", "type": "text"}]}]} | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.702173669430211, "platformFee": 0.702173669430211, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713932900093 | 140 | evanjonescfa2 | 1713932900093 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLhjAUbJQCXujKewZM2OYxy9M4s5KjBk7P3Ti510I0LB-Xnbd1Y=s96-c | 3 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "0e8adc50b3a8", "prob": 0.03608936249317418, "text": "1-6", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.95573183906054, "userId": "BCB4A9Kju2QjpCGecBiwoSUAjJi2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 78.94462978743195, "textFts": "'-6':2 '1':1", "contractId": "yUqDhern7mDBVxLebYtO", "resolverId": "BCB4A9Kju2QjpCGecBiwoSUAjJi2", "createdTim... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1713147765197 | 0 | [{"name": "World War Twea @ Duke [April 19, 2024]", "slug": "world-war-twea-duke-april-19-2024", "groupId": "c50ddb31-bb19-4f8c-8e0f-770cbb7a5907", "createdTime": 1713148716991}] | ["world-war-twea-duke-april-19-2024"] | 0.25 | 1713640952589 | {"00c651cd7855": 100} | BCB4A9Kju2QjpCGecBiwoSUAjJi2 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
D9ERyBp36I0NSImOD2N1 | which-team-will-win-world-war-twea | 177.2944383429896 | Which team will win World War Twea? | 1713932814914 | BCB4A9Kju2QjpCGecBiwoSUAjJi2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | 654bf199e7f4 | public | 1713148849208 | evan jones | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please select the winner of the World War Twea competition in terms of total points scored.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713932814914 | 180 | evanjonescfa2 | 1713932814914 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLhjAUbJQCXujKewZM2OYxy9M4s5KjBk7P3Ti510I0LB-Xnbd1Y=s96-c | 6 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "cb4385504992", "prob": 0.1356181046414628, "text": "ArgenTweana", "index": 0, "poolNo": 17.233562398620126, "userId": "BCB4A9Kju2QjpCGecBiwoSUAjJi2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 109.84063941374819, "textFts": "'argentweana':1", "contractId": "D9ERyBp36I0NSImOD2N1", "resolverId": "BCB4A9Kju2QjpCGecBiwoSUAjJi2"... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1713147765197 | 0 | [{"name": "World War Twea @ Duke [April 19, 2024]", "slug": "world-war-twea-duke-april-19-2024", "groupId": "c50ddb31-bb19-4f8c-8e0f-770cbb7a5907", "createdTime": 1713148849480}] | ["world-war-twea-duke-april-19-2024"] | 0.25 | 1713331425185 | 1713199287916 | {"654bf199e7f4": 100} | BCB4A9Kju2QjpCGecBiwoSUAjJi2 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
G9N255IuHo7aScFg0emn | sum-of-seeds-post-playin-of-8-teams | 2325 | Sum of seeds (post Play-In) of 8 teams that win 1st round series | 1715093984107 | BYGxdu40OjPyDJ3PhIRm0EKY1yc2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | d552c565099a | public | 1713148932925 | Chinmay The Math Guy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Last year was an anomaly where exactly 1 of each seed advanced", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2023:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "l... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.459140348056189, "platformFee": 4.459140348056189, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715093984107 | 100 | ChinmayTheMathGuy | 1715093984107 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZq896I_Ax8LGfe5H_KMzO98z8XRF1EV3Jg9qYo=s96-c | 2 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "1bda3c9df027", "prob": 2.0702393823931483e-05, "text": "20-21", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.04021701134729483, "userId": "BYGxdu40OjPyDJ3PhIRm0EKY1yc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1942.5859203006048, "textFts": "'-21':2 '20':1", "contractId": "G9N255IuHo7aScFg0emn", "resolverId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", ... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1677787177859 | 0 | 0.25 | 1715008466338 | 1715092204887 | {"d552c565099a": 100} | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.30361978234096865 | CWIHkVZcABp1d8CuarHu | {"NO": 767.0040545509332, "YES": 1762.0343427450568} | 0.1595135703782853 | will-the-humane-ai-pin-still-be-abl | 1285.1739130434783 | Will the Humane AI pin still be able to be purchased at the end of 2025? | 1767243540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.677726509163904 | False | basic | public | 1713149024787 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reviews have not been good so far", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F_6CCC1OlX2.png?alt=media&token=2903da46-292b-48... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.03271341750109433} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.236354917291637, "platformFee": 0.851941652632647, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1718944421572 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "AI Impacts", "slug": "ai-impacts", "groupId": "q3Su0NeV9ta4DqhqlIEq", "createdTime": 1713149024937}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1713149024943}, {"name": "Startups", "slug": "startups", "groupId": "19c319ca-033c-474f-b417-5f07efe88ec0", "createdTime": 171... | ["ai-impacts", "ai", "startups", "technology-default", "consumer-electronics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718944418520 | 1716605687835 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
uY1CNZe1pSN9F7BmUNA1 | which-member-state-of-the-european | 296 | Which member state of the European Union will be the first to achieve a life expectancy of 90 at birth for females? | 2840140740000 | fC1ansMApEQHjwO65QG3ZqDe6N03 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713150705035 | MindcraftMax | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Which of the current 27 EU member states will reach a life expectancy at birth of 90 for women first?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Multiple answers are possible if several countries reach 9... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.822029044966935, "platformFee": 3.822029044966935, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 935 | MindcraftMax | 1715968676334 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLFNiBV5WLe33nxw1zahFOXsof39amFqPvYjUk9K_QkB4yBpPo=s96-c | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "da865dc3d7bc", "prob": 0.37462954536223303, "text": "Spain", "index": 0, "poolNo": 115.01802199979542, "userId": "fC1ansMApEQHjwO65QG3ZqDe6N03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 192, "textFts": "'spain':1", "contractId": "uY1CNZe1pSN9F7BmUNA1", "createdTime": 1713150705036, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "mo... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712993461229 | 0 | [{"name": "European Union", "slug": "european-union", "groupId": "yDH8ujgF86zAYx8XpCc1", "createdTime": 1713150705371}, {"name": "Life Expectancy", "slug": "life-expectancy", "groupId": "f1bac278-dfa9-448d-8b6f-2ff2a78277c0", "createdTime": 1713150705369}, {"name": "Women", "slug": "women", "groupId": "a0824df9-b437-4e... | ["european-union", "life-expectancy", "women", "demographics"] | 0.25 | 1715968490764 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.22160335357370956 | LhOrEf43G0i3wKKYCGF2 | {"NO": 1511.752678487482, "YES": 1312.8689612243043} | 0.2468855700178597 | will-strutheo-get-100000-traders-be | 1096.620957939169 | Will @strutheo get 100,000 traders in one life, before 2024 ends? | 1735707540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.170318390326988 | False | basic | public | 1713152259755 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will be using the Manifold leaderboard to measure the traders, most likely.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 1}, "content": [{"type": "hardBreak", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://docs.google.com/sp... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 0.04383714067189906} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.12115174260594, "platformFee": 1.4951740487021106, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1502 | strutheo | 1719165802892 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbahk6EJpQP9aKuZiX", "createdTime": 1713152259890}, {"name": "Meta-markets", "slug": "metamarkets", "groupId": "0112083b-1b7d-4e2a-80e8-929ba3f099a5", "createdTime": 1713152259899}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "h... | ["manifold-users", "metamarkets", "manifold-6748e065087e", "top-creators", "manifold-drama"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718984775791 | 1719165801334 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.3012178999629007 | qJPkl0btNaNkZ2R2ZTMK | {"NO": 201.285056544466, "YES": 8379.083326271502} | 0 | will-conservative-mps-move-against | 12777.971953968017 | Will Conservative MPs move against Rishi Sunak after the local elections? | 1715295540000 | VC8wAxhSj3YoEgTVAvwHv8tTXsn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1713174038172 | NoitUK | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if any of the following is true as of Thursday night one week on from the local elections:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1) Rishi Sunak has stood down as leader of the Conservative Party",... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 26.744204667303375, "platformFee": 26.744204667303375, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715317187378 | 640 | NoitUK | 1715295540000 | 0 | 39 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1680597255123 | 0 | [{"name": "World Leaders", "slug": "world-leaders", "groupId": "91d037d6-d6a7-48fe-b0b2-625cab587c79", "createdTime": 1713174038446}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1713174038443}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUd... | ["world-leaders", "uk-politics", "politics-default", "uk-conservative-party", "rishi-sunak"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715279784413 | 1715000342537 | 0.01 | VC8wAxhSj3YoEgTVAvwHv8tTXsn1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
FdGmBNbHdXNC6PQMkR9W | whats-your-favourite-animal | 0 | tell me your favourite animal for 5 manas | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1713174345559 | jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BOUNTIED_QUESTION | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | jim | 1715984095727 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 558 | ["oG6RPecPifZkq0ZqjrYD", "s7h7OwskDFcXCwKZFlrV", "tfE72qncuHMQswzYiTzP", "XQwC1ifTxJpvJ524T8ms", "aVWwDn83sFy6iHSTe9JK", "6v5jYjuUg4iErYsSBys3", "whmrRiiPbLG3qf5MxGz2", "PvzeRpFynL87VIbTNolG", "DijpqZ4mEFvCRpt3AIbi", "z2FOOekFyhENZS0sWJ7G", "ON7hViPdLoHHhaS2Fjzh", "yIpE2S2kL65OWXFjuyYV", "yZULno10Nv1etakg1Ud7", "MrYL8J... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690863320225 | 0 | [{"name": "Animals", "slug": "animals", "groupId": "f1b6760b-1baa-46e4-ab4f-a70259273eba", "createdTime": 1713174345915}] | ["animals"] | 0.25 | 1715984094230 | 1259 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
fOR2Z1YDkptdUaGLCPWa | whats-your-favourite-movie-that-mos | 0 | what's your favourite movie that most people probably haven't seen? | 1714235457671 | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1713174372490 | jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BOUNTIED_QUESTION | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714235457671 | jim | 1713979808006 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ["tz2lrMCOaEoKMq1yFWiy", "7W4u3v3fQLX5AjRDUCg7", "aQ8VJsEQf8RFUsw3SdY2", "fzdcd2ieTC1N947W6bZS", "T03wEbuqjByQSVc0Py0K", "29e2Z8YqpFgZTM7F7tZK", "dmmGoRiaz6JzrVJft5hE", "wx4paYy70ZTmVAHB9iJJ", "ktpIXmLtk0KTydrATWNv", "ET5VGGSOi28mOKRWj39C", "6MguMOhqDCsW3ljcoY7f", "Xb5LWQoq8SGuiEGIaoNq", "Y51TUtskINNGJ68MCmS5", "uJRC7h... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690863320225 | 0 | [{"name": "🎥 Movies", "slug": "movies", "groupId": "KSeNIu7AWgiBBM5FqVuB", "createdTime": 1713174372642}] | ["movies"] | 0.25 | 1713979807169 | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | 1217 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
waXAZyFenSRD5BQYPZ7n | whats-a-well-thought-out-opinion-yo | 0 | Bank of Jim | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1713174444642 | jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BOUNTIED_QUESTION | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | jim | 1716262091705 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 380 | ["2Jwnyjhgl1z3XWBwAxfS", "l0zdiEXQvMp2WSP6xAcQ", "dws7JdS6", "2AAeWZ3p", "kIShGceg"] | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690863320225 | 0 | [] | [] | 0.25 | 1716262090135 | 10566 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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6pp7nAGuvX5nncWoMOiJ | suspiciously-specific-predictions | 2008.0813376856452 | Suspiciously specific predictions | 1924988340000 | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1713178746060 | Kongo Landwalker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Tell in the comments, what events will likely happen according to your model, but are generally viewed as too specific and too unlikely.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The prediction has to a... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0169153032407472, "platformFee": 0.9485555374670314, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | KongoLandwalker | 1717562723749 | 0 | 22 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "3d5348b8673d", "prob": 0.10999999999999999, "text": "The next nuclear bomb test happens in August 2027", "index": 0, "poolNo": 69.63960551173149, "userId": "9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 563.4477173221912, "textFts": "'2027':9 'august':8 'bomb':4 'happen':6 'next':2 'nuclear':3 't... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1681038287526 | 0 | [{"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1713178746467}, {"name": "Experimental", "slug": "experimental", "groupId": "GAn872bm0J8FT8pNYtyq", "createdTime": 1713178746466}] | ["world-default", "experimental"] | 0.25 | 1717562720636 | 1713813126819 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999998 | GBqol7T9DdeB8Np8pVAC | {"NO": 240, "YES": 41.666666666666664} | 0.8520710059171597 | did-openai-transcribe-youtube-video | 140 | Did OpenAI transcribe Youtube videos to train a GPT model as claimed by NYT? | 1767254340000 | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713179066127 | jackson polack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://archive.is/lZLqr", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://archive.is/lZLqr", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | jacksonpolack | 1713180027006 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1670234252125 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713180023826 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3089628038253303 | KJxVKJzrxwDLIfhX1N55 | {"NO": 960.273192078052, "YES": 1055.5041964713942} | 0.28914734241139883 | will-openai-be-sued-with-standing-f | 691.6258414277845 | Will OpenAI be sued (with standing) for using transcribed YouTube videos for GPT before 2026? | 1767254340000 | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.586553032827272 | False | basic | public | 1713179187407 | jackson polack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.281083628885904, "platformFee": 1.6774228085470484, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | jacksonpolack | 1717244286597 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c | 17 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1670234252125 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1713179187543}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1713179187553}] | ["openai", "ai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717244283247 | 1713195164332 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Wx6s3UN65YaeIzzjFmNT | which-is-better-b493ee1d7810 | 0 | Which is better? | 1717995540000 | B4hbhKgvRKZeWTQoCxb5dh9rkiJ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1713179858243 | Buttocks Cocktoasten | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717995540905 | ButtocksCocktoasten | 1713179858397 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1674213622803 | 0 | [{"name": "Rationalussy", "slug": "rationalussy", "groupId": "Ly2Ra90FbHZXOxJwkia0", "createdTime": 1713179858397}] | ["rationalussy"] | 0.25 | ["0e59a8839672"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ezENfe79iO1qRY2jC3TM | total-value-of-crypto-stolenscammed-cf1e2b82758c | 835.603565958646 | Total value of crypto stolen/scammed between Apr 16th and May 15th as tracked by Molly White/W3IGG | 1715810340000 | P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | 142c43986184 | public | 1713180021112 | Martin Modrák | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The grift counter at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://web3isgoinggreat.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://web3isgoinggreat.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 h... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.7228067794946007, "platformFee": 2.7228067794946007, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715841398114 | 180 | MartinModrak | 1715810340000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c | 5 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "1702c630e565", "prob": 0.007115555054445114, "text": "Less than $100 million", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.9085084802602807, "userId": "P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 405.8450543838658, "textFts": "'100':3 'less':1 'million':4", "contractId": "ezENfe79iO1qRY2jC3TM", "resolverId": "P6S5... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1672234503136 | 0 | [{"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1713180021535}, {"name": "Web3 Is Going Just Great", "slug": "web3-is-going-just-great", "groupId": "e0df2e83-33e5-42a4-ba63-2e77a6fba4fc", "createdTime": 1713180021533}, {"name": "scam", "slug": "scam", "groupId": "U... | ["crypto-speculation", "web3-is-going-just-great", "scam"] | 0.25 | 1715764926671 | 1715841380142 | {"142c43986184": 100} | P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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D9flnbYHnf0BvvoWWS7J | which-of-these-nba-stars-will-avera | 3824.539982210026 | Which of these NBA stars will average 30+ points per game in the 2024 playoffs? (Min 4 games) [ADD RESPONSES] | 1718718249467 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1713191626028 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES for each player that averages 30 or more points per game (PPG) in the 2023-2024 NBA playoffs, with a minimum of 4 games played.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"ty... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 25.39810888298167, "platformFee": 7.500910841644586, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718718249467 | 1000 | Ziddletwix | 1718718249467 | 0 | 14 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "792c69c5a052", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Luka Doncic", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.648845562995461, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 955.2357107365542, "textFts": "'doncic':2 'luka':1", "contractId": "D9flnbYHnf0BvvoWWS7J", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PV... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime": 1713191626309}, {"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1713191626316}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 171319162... | ["nba", "basketball", "sports-default", "20232024-nba-season"] | 0.25 | 1718718198972 | 1713237226790 | 0.01 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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LnRhl1e6t5CL9u8TUWNe | nba-playoff-series-4-la-clippers-vs | 10856.89204573505 | NBA Playoff Conference Semifinals: #1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs #5 Dallas Mavericks (EXACT SERIES OUTCOME) | 1716088980597 | dYLpkCCilcRnDhTXK5eSX0oHK3x1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1713195111050 | ReeMARKable | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 37.803201634117144, "platformFee": 37.803201634117144, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716088980597 | 1200 | ReeMARKable | 1716088980597 | 0 | 25 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "be71eae13c7a", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Clippers Win 4-3", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.76939324265075, "userId": "dYLpkCCilcRnDhTXK5eSX0oHK3x1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1066.1699310224262, "textFts": "'-3':4 '4':3 'clipper':1 'win':2", "contractId": "LnRhl1e6t5CL9u8TUWNe", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "dY... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697544913258 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1713195111368}, {"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b559-4202-b3be-d1dffecbdecd", "createdTime": 1713195111369}, {"name": "NBA Playoffs", "slug": "nba-playoffs", "groupId"... | ["sports-default", "20232024-nba-season", "nba-playoffs", "basketball", "nba"] | 0.25 | 1716086477589 | 1715831448633 | 0 | dYLpkCCilcRnDhTXK5eSX0oHK3x1 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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2KSrRAqLmTvMhbOE89q5 | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-552efc5b4a6c | 0 | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Pol Pot? | 1713228170411 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1713195433480 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX", "label": "/strutheo/who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713228181093 | strutheo | 1713228172594 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Future US Presidents", "slug": "future-us-presidents", "groupId": "AaVOlWucYC9VeWQN6zYG", "createdTime": 1713195433694}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1713195433696}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "dona... | ["future-us-presidents", "2024-us-presidential-election", "donald-trump", "polls", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | ["44c7db005a89"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
TKrcjAFPBF5VeX0Db5f9 | nba-playoff-series-2-new-york-knick | 58097.17700373364 | NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Finals: #1 Boston Celtics vs #6 Indiana Pacers (EXACT SERIES OUTCOME) | 1716863994245 | dYLpkCCilcRnDhTXK5eSX0oHK3x1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1713195477564 | ReeMARKable | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 361.4738200111266, "platformFee": 217.51594596977412, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716863994245 | 3940 | ReeMARKable | 1716863994245 | 0 | 61 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "ba7b4615e497", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Knicks Win 4-3", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.786987327243196, "userId": "dYLpkCCilcRnDhTXK5eSX0oHK3x1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 869.9117453970764, "textFts": "'-3':4 '4':3 'knick':1 'win':2", "contractId": "TKrcjAFPBF5VeX0Db5f9", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "dYLpkCC... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697544913258 | 0 | [{"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime": 1713195477877}, {"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b559-4202-b3be-d1dffecbdecd", "createdTime": 1713195477882}, {"name": "NBA Playoffs", "slug": "nba-playoffs", "groupId": "8f8bc28b-e3cc-4... | ["nba", "20232024-nba-season", "nba-playoffs", "basketball", "sports-default"] | 0.25 | 1716863935369 | 1715707566679 | 0.01 | dYLpkCCilcRnDhTXK5eSX0oHK3x1 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
YNsC29Fl1BlfMtidAMjB | whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the | 7746.313939072096 | Who/what do Manifold users think they could beat (unarmed) in a fight? [Add responses.] | 1718504024847 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1713195594484 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Inspired by poll results from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://yougov.co.uk/society/articles/35979-which-animals-could-britons-beat-fight", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://yougov.co.uk/society/articles/359... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 61.51059263199544, "platformFee": 38.28245288063586, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718504024847 | 5155 | gregrosent | 1718504024847 | 0 | 60 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "9c3e39d008e7", "prob": 0.96, "text": "Rat", "index": 0, "poolNo": 351.9868250082264, "userId": "UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12.906832634492396, "textFts": "'rat':1", "contractId": "YNsC29Fl1BlfMtidAMjB", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2", "created... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId": "RCGUqqLvrrs1ievZIxDE", "createdTime": 1713195594708}, {"name": "Animals", "slug": "animals", "groupId": "f1b6760b-1baa-46e4-ab4f-a70259273eba", "createdTime": 1713195594718}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1713195... | ["fighting", "animals", "fun", "manifold-surveys", "human-limits"] | 0.25 | 1717897889991 | 1717344116271 | 0.34 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
JpybNfDHPSabVgf2l300 | nba-playoff-series-3-milwaukee-buck | 8957.483191422785 | NBA Playoff Series: #3 Milwaukee Bucks vs #6 Indiana Pacers (EXACT SERIES OUTCOME) | 1714700408685 | dYLpkCCilcRnDhTXK5eSX0oHK3x1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1713195727255 | ReeMARKable | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 30.318824832243656, "platformFee": 30.318824832243656, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714700408685 | 1380 | ReeMARKable | 1714700408685 | 0 | 22 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "49a7fa24d4eb", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Bucks Win 4-3", "index": 0, "poolNo": 13.917793677968461, "userId": "dYLpkCCilcRnDhTXK5eSX0oHK3x1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1377.8615741188792, "textFts": "'-3':4 '4':3 'buck':1 'win':2", "contractId": "JpybNfDHPSabVgf2l300", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "dYLpkCC... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697544913258 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1713195727509}, {"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b559-4202-b3be-d1dffecbdecd", "createdTime": 1713195727511}, {"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId":... | ["sports-default", "20232024-nba-season", "basketball", "nba", "nba-playoffs"] | 0.25 | 1714697839635 | 1714698334285 | 0.01 | dYLpkCCilcRnDhTXK5eSX0oHK3x1 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | mZ4dRwvYXZMgiHRKv6Pv | {"NO": 125.60891949687891, "YES": 79.6121807277267} | 0.6120663000023164 | by-2030-will-i-be-able-to-get-a-3-m | 26.19131671036409 | By 2030 will I be able to get a 3 month prescription for stimulant meds to treat ADHD? | 1893567540000 | dEvAkoH19rTcIENraMy3kZyHOe82 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713195912676 | Luke Hanks (HankyUSA) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I’m an adult living in New Mexico, USA. As of right now my prescriber can only prescribe 1 month’s worth of stimulant medication to treat my ADHD per visit. This feels ridiculous given that I take lisdexamfetamine dimesylate (Vyvanse) which is a sl... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.2911986067425929, "platformFee": 0.2911986067425929, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | HankyUSA | 1715202625767 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrs9Q53gYHp6HbnXlXHhLBPcjB8HOvuaWTt58yPYSM=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1658210833379 | 0 | [{"name": "ADHD", "slug": "adhd", "groupId": "52020337-9c4a-441c-80ba-41bf0e6180ff", "createdTime": 1713195912844}, {"name": "⚕️ Medicine", "slug": "medicine", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1713195912864}] | ["adhd", "medicine"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715202622471 | 0 |
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