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0.3659338818741506 | 02NED6EoSMoCMyasB3Mm | {"NO": 170.92053235604394, "YES": 237.363159274269} | 0.29357308493482337 | will-we-send-a-spacecraftprobe-or-j | 132.62042922907736 | Will we send a spacecraft/probe or Jose Luis ricon to the proxima centauri/alpha centauri system by 2065? | 3029547540000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713235312473 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Start date of 2065", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4265434370282806, "platformFee": 0.4265434370282806, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | StochasticParrot | 1714319165188 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh", "createdTime": 1713235312627}, {"name": "๐ Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1713235312628}, {"name": "๐ญ Space exploration", "slug": "space-exploration", "groupId": "7EN6VxtLzX459WLUsjQv", "createdTime... | ["spacex", "space", "space-exploration"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714319161864 | 1713244219675 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5903094434474647 | W3Jz8JmpuDA7CoZJKj4X | {"NO": 286.7845965728701, "YES": 177.09357836536677} | 0.7 | will-taiwan-buy-any-air-defence-sys | 101.42049320161684 | Will Taiwan buy any Air Defence System from Israel before 2035? | 2051279940000 | 2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713250300088 | Josh Wilkes | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question defines 'Air Defence System' as any military system that is designed to eliminate aerial threats such as rockets, missiles, drones/UAVs, aircraft and even satellites or artillery shells, AND that uses missiles or directed-energy weapo... | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.346696429231232, "platformFee": 0.346696429231232, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 220 | JoshuaWilkes | 1716274026049 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1662006482315 | 0 | [{"name": "Military", "slug": "military", "groupId": "bqdgUcWdGMqqFAy2DBKt", "createdTime": 1713250300235}, {"name": "๐ Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "groupId": "2wNGnksxJzypXZtiTLNL", "createdTime": 1713250300239}, {"name": "๐น๐ผ Taiwan", "slug": "taiwan", "groupId": "yVxGLCRxMXptN7l4Bw9p", "createdTime": 1713... | ["military", "geopolitics", "taiwan", "israel"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716274022539 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
T5Q79W4D3ZoJe5aAd3gZ | when-will-wizardlm-2-return | 1277 | When will WizardLM 2 return? | 1713945766295 | zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | d0fd9d75fee6 | public | 1713251983502 | Mira | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The 7b and 8x22B models were removed for \"toxicity testing\". The 70B model was never released.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each day that one of these models is released resolves 33%, sum... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.3791639488467236, "platformFee": 2.3791639488467236, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713945766295 | 140 | Mira | 1713945766295 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b155eaf8bc4b", "prob": 0.0021429834030060697, "text": "April 16", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.4943697215542784, "userId": "zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 695.8370792565627, "textFts": "'16':2 'april':1", "contractId": "T5Q79W4D3ZoJe5aAd3gZ", "resolverId": "zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2"... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1672765622992 | 0 | 0.25 | 1713945756360 | {"d0fd9d75fee6": 100} | zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.6173131853234182 | IwG3mfCNryDQ1r4beADw | {"NO": 19.247446168846366, "YES": 550.2576669303808} | 0 | wlll-the-anc-get-less-that-40-of-th | 2211.4111315578766 | Wlll the ANC get less that 40% of the vote in the May 29, 2024 election? | 1717817765484 | iHtOCKg5HtM4haiuZaiWox0d4Sr1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1713256537585 | Tim Cohen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Social Research Foundation released a poll on support for the ruling ANC following the court decision that former President Jacob Zuma could stand as a candidate for the uMkhonto weSizwe Party, or MKP. According to the SRF, the MKP is now showi... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.08770681211229116} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24.30365671627048, "platformFee": 3.0090828523010904, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717817765484 | 160 | TimCohen | 1717817765484 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJrO2rGB-BQDGuPO__RgYYuoOHY0nWD-GE7dpj8_cvaGw=s96-c | 16 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701053142095 | 0 | [{"name": "South Africa", "slug": "south-africa", "groupId": "H87QoUwQ4mCqJXUzUeeG", "createdTime": 1713256537744}, {"name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "groupId": "i5JOzjrK5ZMHPSkhgzoi", "createdTime": 1713256537746}] | ["south-africa", "elections"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717790691120 | 1717412315313 | 0.05 | iHtOCKg5HtM4haiuZaiWox0d4Sr1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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KmCqSJUMMUpUKzH2RkUP | fide-chess-candidates-tournament-ro-2e78382e4c4b | 24392.307696488442 | FIDE Chess Candidates Tournament - Round 11 Bets | 1713409140000 | FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1713257702339 | Weezing | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You are welcome to add your own options.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Games start 17th of April at 2:30 PM EDT (~33 hours from market creation). Come live bet with us.", "type": "text"}]}, ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 95.61907448428597, "platformFee": 95.61907448428597, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713453400286 | 3355 | Weezing | 1713505707504 | 0 | 23 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "4b3289ca5e4e", "prob": 0.99, "text": "Someone takes sole lead of the tournament", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1495.642888102326, "userId": "FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 15.107503920225529, "textFts": "'lead':4 'sole':3 'someon':1 'take':2 'tournament':7", "contractId": "KmCqSJUMMUpUKzH... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700212225777 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b3ll9Ch9rdbcrTRAbjUf", "createdTime": 1713257702610}, {"name": "โ๏ธ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1713257702633}, {"name": "Chess candidates 2024", "slug": "chess-candidates-2024", "groupId": "09ea3682-1d3f-4f6... | ["sports-betting", "chess", "chess-candidates-2024"] | 0.25 | 1713408378587 | 1713505706879 | 0.15 | FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1 | False | liquidity | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Hpo3EGqRdqzqf0iVlNUX | energy-store-technology-of-new-cars | 232.92316311722507 | Energy storage technology of new cars sold in the EU in 2034 | 2051182740000 | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1713258805118 | Daniel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Source: acea", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2022: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.acea.auto/figure/fuel-types-of-new-passenger-cars-in-eu/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.448518853834822, "platformFee": 3.448518853834822, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Daniel_MC | 1715287090649 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | 10 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "e01827f12fc5", "prob": 0.03652578663084736, "text": "Petrol", "index": 0, "poolNo": 17.57883227600822, "userId": "HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 463.693000516287, "textFts": "'petrol':1", "contractId": "Hpo3EGqRdqzqf0iVlNUX", "createdTime": 1713258805118, "probChanges": {"day": -9.... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1678868464369 | 0 | [{"name": "Energy", "slug": "energy", "groupId": "rraS2YIDaAckq3bR5lfQ", "createdTime": 1713258805333}, {"name": "๐ชธ Climate", "slug": "climate", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw", "createdTime": 1713258805338}, {"name": "Electric Vehicles", "slug": "electric-vehicles", "groupId": "d446b2a7-547c-4650-95e9-e0ff79ce883e"... | ["energy", "climate", "electric-vehicles"] | 0.25 | 1715287087326 | 1713258963886 | True | prob-desc | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PNXWrigMqICLG6rcgGZm | do-you-consider-yourself-part-of-th | 0 | Do you consider yourself part of the Effective Altruism and/or Rationality/LessWrong communities/subcultures? | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1713261570410 | The All Memeing Eye โ ๏ธ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | TheAllMemeingEye | 1713485240900 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | 81 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1704035290346 | 0 | [{"name": "SF Bay Rationalists", "slug": "sf-bay-rationalists", "groupId": "RtQOEuXgzqtlxq13Fzt3", "createdTime": 1713261570586}, {"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1713261570587}, {"name": "LessWrong", "slug": "lesswrong", "groupId": "K0U4VlIw... | ["sf-bay-rationalists", "effective-altruism", "lesswrong", "rationality", "internet"] | 0.25 | 1713485240116 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
FM2VFyRGTHcCSrgL6eQg | when-will-i-sleep-today | 300.521464124632 | When will I sleep today? | 1713283140000 | 3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxPFexwI3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1713263009367 | Bohaska | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "this resolves to the time I get into bed and start trying to sleep, not the time where I actually fall asleep", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I may not resolve this market before it closes.", "type": "text... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713306824443 | 210 | bohaska | 1713283140000 | 0 | 3 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "f7f695502122", "prob": 0.53, "text": "Before 9pm", "index": 0, "poolNo": 46.79938744257274, "userId": "3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxPFexwI3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 40.72587755102041, "textFts": "'9pm':2", "contractId": "FM2VFyRGTHcCSrgL6eQg", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxPFexwI3", "cr... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1692081472895 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ช Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1713263009832}] | ["personal-goals"] | 0.25 | 1713264543499 | 0.1 | 3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxPFexwI3 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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