p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
X1Z162TgNbfHn1SYrrYd | which-of-the-millenium-prize-proble | 286.41815660431797 | Which of the Millenium Prize problems will be solved next? | 2240629140000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1713470888838 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Other = a prize yet to be added to the Millenium prize list", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.427180566776795, "platformFee": 5.427180566776795, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1713833899311 | 0 | 13 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "a163f1094a57", "prob": 0.23045639110609187, "text": "Birch Swinnerton Dyer Conjecture", "index": 0, "poolNo": 132.1370274659817, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 441.23404213977153, "textFts": "'birch':1 'conjectur':4 'dyer':3 'swinnerton':2", "contractId": "X1Z162TgNbfHn1... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🧮 Math", "slug": "mathematics", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1713470889143}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1713470889157}, {"name": "Millennium Prize Problems", "slug": "millenium-prize-problems", "groupId": "wS8Ust85... | ["mathematics", "science-default", "millenium-prize-problems", "culture-default", "competition-math"] | 0.25 | 1713833896016 | 1713833272246 | True | prob-desc | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
TST85mtLrQzmCDaemFsx | what-will-happen-to-columbia-univer | 15179.591864837179 | What will happen to Columbia University President Minouche Shafik as a result of using the NYPD on students? | 1720335540000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 8.78794175295442 | False | basic | public | 1713470903434 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Today Columbia’s president ordered the arrest of around 100 students protesting on behalf of Palestine. The NYPD entered campus for the first time since 1968 to arrest protesters. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/18/us/nypd... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 176.9740010543078, "platformFee": 114.93014408398656, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 3840 | MarkHamill | 1719934495128 | 0 | 105 | 3 | DISABLED | [{"id": "cc3f193c01eb", "prob": 0.9172994459995956, "text": "Remains President", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4162.435819778243, "userId": "S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 375.27085597622863, "textFts": "'presid':2 'remain':1", "contractId": "TST85mtLrQzmCDaemFsx", "createdTime": 1713470903434, "pr... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | [{"name": "Colleges & Universities", "slug": "colleges-universities", "groupId": "3qsRSyWVqskVH54fz1CR", "createdTime": 1713493904512}, {"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1713493911109}, {"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-202... | ["colleges-universities", "israel", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "palestine"] | 0.25 | 1719934491965 | 1714923362476 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.318226530775873 | QvQDxHokhF32mRJIf3qi | {"NO": 980.3145570489193, "YES": 1012.0658574705004} | 0.3113513067312288 | will-boeing-have-a-flying-car-in-us | 500.0675605198467 | Will Boeing have a Flying Car in use on at least one commercial route by the end of 2030? | 1925009940000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.582508121635147 | False | basic | public | 1713471463137 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Transportation/Boeing-aims-to-bring-flying-cars-to-Asia-by-2030", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Transportation/Boeing-aims-to-bring-flying-cars-to-Asi... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.984223915592211, "platformFee": 4.984223915592211, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1714467292439 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1713471463322}, {"name": "💼 Business", "slug": "business", "groupId": "pmK8sntWL1SDkMm53UBR", "createdTime": 1713471463308}, {"name": "Boeing", "slug": "boeing", "groupId": "0ad5d059-21c2-4821-a1a8-6f54dd5b3462", "cre... | ["science-default", "business", "boeing", "technology-default", "cars"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714467283508 | 1713473360829 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.39109412478268557 | wdxD5fXCM9vdwuhCLVTB | {"NO": 1197.9572838163149, "YES": 709.2149047241035} | 0.5203635027389143 | will-palestine-be-fully-recognized | 2197.5811193593413 | Will Palestine be fully recognized as a United Nations member state by the end of 2029? | 1893473940000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.477647725504916 | False | basic | public | 1713471808045 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_State_of_Palestine", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_State_of_Palestine", "class": "break-an... | BINARY | {"day": -0.059241224336403, "week": 0.030416151817885873, "month": 0.11036350273891399} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 50.09739089564943, "platformFee": 13.204175028681338, "liquidityFee": 0} | 100 | 1000 | strutheo | 1720180840031 | 0 | 41 | 2 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🇵🇸 Palestine", "slug": "palestine", "groupId": "1de63cc6-7700-472a-a943-e67cb4d3e07d", "createdTime": 1713471808208}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1713471808224}, {"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", ... | ["palestine", "world-default", "israel", "arabisraeli-conflict", "israelhamas-conflict-2023"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720180836918 | 1716389284266 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5126074444626024 | xt1Oj1NyjTasuMcycohb | {"NO": 135.91086670469141, "YES": 234.03062255973316} | 0.37918422184845424 | will-i-leave-manifold-if-i-lose-the | 171.40150605133147 | Will I leave Manifold if I lose the 'Apple Vision Pro Prediction Market'? | 1735685940000 | T7EybFKrm5bP1NBglYX7Twtwuv13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713471988241 | The Wabi Sabi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See my bet at below market. Resolve N/A if I win. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/_deleted_/will-apple-sell-500000-units-of-vis", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.7895328767499925, "platformFee": 2.7895328767499925, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 180 | TheWabiSabi | 1715926924367 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697631332267 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1713471988484}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1713471988500}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-... | ["manifold-business-future", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715926920942 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3126714917816371 | 8xvmgCnkainkhxWE7yFR | {"NO": 980.986533028517, "YES": 983.3519358686817} | 0.31215415239669925 | will-palestine-be-fully-recognized-38ad147ff39a | 996.3789031967274 | Will Palestine be fully recognized as a United Nations member state by the end of 2027? | 1830315540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.303475258598175 | False | basic | public | 1713472917219 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_State_of_Palestine", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_State_of_Palestine", "class": "break-an... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.012154152396698925} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.264590694441965, "platformFee": 6.069575590572007, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1718917541761 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1713472917489}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1713472917493}, {"name": "🇵🇸 Palestine", "slug": "palestine", "groupId": "1de63cc6-7700-472a-a943-e67cb4d3e07d", ... | ["israel", "world-default", "palestine", "arabisraeli-conflict", "israelhamas-conflict-2023"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718917538634 | 1716389212859 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4028044781313365 | QA0IJ8ytKW6uIivGr5Y3 | {"NO": 950.051767639841, "YES": 1056.0124526836314} | 0.37765064039624857 | will-there-be-a-film-that-costs-ove-4f37fb33a05f | 347.12366225671553 | Will there be a film that costs over $1B to make by the end of 2030? | 2240629140000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.71785193774887 | False | basic | public | 1713473058404 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Link: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_expensive_films", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_expensive_films", "class": "break-anywhere hov... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.018745667044427594} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.763561149944868, "platformFee": 4.444887538269454, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1718809193244 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1713473058584}, {"name": "Hollywood", "slug": "hollywood", "groupId": "qnJlrpEJJ1i5tEJ6J2jM", "createdTime": 1713473058586}, {"name": "📺 Television & Film", "slug": "television-film", "groupId": "EUSEngFk1dGGBfaMeAmh",... | ["culture-default", "hollywood", "television-film", "movies", "entertainment"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718809190184 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GXoZ1GraXHQAqUgPeRr2 | private-market-april-18th | 3689.721804216306 | What will be the outcome of the Pivot? | 1735718340000 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.912344033130715 | False | basic | public | 1713473239823 | Joshua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Original Rules", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://docs.google.com/document/d/1AJrOnPNT9y6SUWTFcvadpWx9lTkP3JvwzJguLUVF-Fs/edit?usp=sharing", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 48.39913443014736, "platformFee": 35.11929564014396, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1860 | Joshua | 1718284805169 | 0 | 41 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0197499bbaa7", "prob": 0.8762972297584751, "text": "A - The site is able to find a reliable payment processor who agrees to process money for the Pivot before 2025", "index": 0, "poolNo": 351.5669430442813, "userId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 49.629056560989724, "textFts": "'... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1645516283433 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1713842862259}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1713842864616}, {"name": "Startups", "slug": "startups", "groupId": "19c319ca-033c-474f-b... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "technology-default", "startups"] | 0.25 | 1718284802059 | 1714039856502 | False | old | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21930844730469168 | oa7JIxOS50NQ9zMMAWv2 | {"NO": 909.8334833487421, "YES": 1213.3326823116554} | 0.1739962599766909 | will-boeing-have-a-flying-car-in-us-36a09cc55490 | 554.9439558162053 | Will Boeing have a Flying Car in use on at least one commercial route by the end of 2033? | 2019704340000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.696040227726426 | False | basic | public | 1713473342478 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Transportation/Boeing-aims-to-bring-flying-cars-to-Asia-by-2030", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Transportation/Boeing-aims-to-bring-flying-cars-to-Asi... | BINARY | {"day": -8.326672684688674e-17, "week": -8.326672684688674e-17, "month": -8.326672684688674e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.799596881314286, "platformFee": 4.799596881314286, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1714467279823 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1713473342740}, {"name": "Boeing", "slug": "boeing", "groupId": "0ad5d059-21c2-4821-a1a8-6f54dd5b3462", "createdTime": 1713473342746}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOp... | ["technology-default", "boeing", "science-default", "cars", "business"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714467271047 | 1713930520633 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
YRqN2BCm2Orl092W0c2z | which-days-in-june-2024-will-gpt45 | 0 | Which day in June 2024 will GPT-4.5 be released? | 1713476747691 | zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1713474138136 | Mira | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves 100% to the first day that GPT-4.5 is released for any non-affiliate of OpenAI to use. If it is released at exactly midnight between 2 options, then resolves 50% to each.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "c... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713476747691 | 1000 | Mira | 1713476747691 | 0 | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "75b8d41ecd9d", "prob": 0.025, "text": "June[0]", "index": 0, "poolNo": 12.820512820512821, "userId": "zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "textFts": "'0':2 'june':1", "contractId": "YRqN2BCm2Orl092W0c2z", "resolverId": "zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2", "createdTime": 1713474138136, "... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1672765622992 | True | 0 | [{"name": "GPT-4", "slug": "gpt4", "groupId": "eBnKor4XWTFwJQA6TOpd", "createdTime": 1713474138788}, {"name": "GPT-4 speculation", "slug": "gpt4-speculation", "groupId": "SWiC5KtQnc48oWmaoAZA", "createdTime": 1713474138793}] | ["gpt4", "gpt4-speculation"] | 0.25 | 1713474433182 | 1713474347080 | zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
eSot6Mi1KvPAaHx0eZTK | who-will-get-unbanned-first | 146.97703645289712 | Will @firstuserhere or @BTE get unbanned first? | 1830315540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713474540292 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "50% if at same time", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "sILDACV4r2UotDSp7b5e", "label": "/strutheo/will-manifold-unban-firstuserhere-o"}}, {"text": " ", "type":... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.514594431175069, "platformFee": 1.514594431175069, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 240 | strutheo | 1720053161621 | 0 | 7 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "7b233684c879", "prob": 0.7664384917669912, "text": "@BTE", "color": "#2196f3", "index": 0, "poolNo": 249.41884144601312, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 76.00693521479711, "textFts": "'bte':1", "contractId": "eSot6Mi1KvPAaHx0eZTK", "createdTime": 1713474540292, "probChang... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Drama", "slug": "manifold-drama", "groupId": "srdbxZea0H4L09GcXRMF", "createdTime": 1713474550517}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1713474551445}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbahk6EJpQ... | ["manifold-drama", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-users", "top-creators", "manifold-business-future"] | 0.25 | 1713913827609 | 1713698009942 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.33301213449244327 | UGmK1arlyUf9nzFpTGP4 | {"NO": 55.34383327071441, "YES": 2735.5619661993755} | 0 | will-challengers-2024-have-94-criti | 2616.605396061131 | Will "Challengers" (2024) have >94% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes? | 1715354189117 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1713475130272 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Challengers\" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/challengers_2023", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.9887035151683214, "platformFee": 6.9887035151683214, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715354189117 | 260 | Ziddletwix | 1715354259366 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "Box-Office", "slug": "boxoffice", "groupId": "IbCVuDeG5LtAeh5NcH0w", "createdTime": 1713475130436}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1713475130445}, {"name": "📺 Television & Film", "slug": "television-film", "groupId": "EUSEngFk1dGGBfaMeAmh"... | ["boxoffice", "culture-default", "television-film", "entertainment", "movies"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715348089436 | 1715354257879 | 0.01 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4473073383889946 | A1VWkj2WCNNt7xrmqVzM | {"NO": 147.56140196309735, "YES": 171.21847941596258} | 0.4108985192546294 | will-the-universe-end-in-a-big-crun | 115.76361122609977 | Will the universe end in a big crunch? | 15841630740000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713475274710 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.space.com/desi-cosmological-constant-dark-energy-history", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.space.com/desi-cosmological-constant-dark-energy-history", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hov... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5089546789687442, "platformFee": 1.5089546789687442, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | StochasticParrot | 1713898658835 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | [{"name": "Physics Forecasting", "slug": "physics", "groupId": "0JWy5mbK5ML8EUh5NA3z", "createdTime": 1713475275090}, {"name": "Cosmology", "slug": "cosmology", "groupId": "d489b83c-6b53-406c-9e4a-cb72d38d659e", "createdTime": 1713475275094}, {"name": "Physics", "slug": "physics-a6878c3ad095", "groupId": "92473248-f029... | ["physics", "cosmology", "physics-a6878c3ad095"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713898655307 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9mji3zvFZgQnZ6CVktL1 | vine-or-tiktok-which-one-is-or-was | 0 | Vine or TikTok? Which one is or was better? | 1716087540000 | W46PM95UYLeYoZ9O5LEKGcMequP2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1713475494385 | Parker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Which one is/was better?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Parker8b43/vine-or-tiktok-will-manifold-users", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716087540915 | Parker8b43 | 1713476287200 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZNzY-vs9K5ovjLH213RDHvMmrWIfT1RLhjT88ovSM=s96-c | 21 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1680290007197 | 0 | [{"name": "Social Media", "slug": "social-media", "groupId": "YzNv56EFKyx9DHwGYtIU", "createdTime": 1713475494586}, {"name": "TikTok", "slug": "tiktok", "groupId": "MjTB5PFWedvqLHXO0vKz", "createdTime": 1713475494607}, {"name": "Vine", "slug": "vine-90a3f0bd42ce", "groupId": "f7d5c2d2-d679-48a0-9ec8-7689b6e74581", "cre... | ["social-media", "tiktok", "vine-90a3f0bd42ce"] | 0.25 | ["ac9ffbbcb767"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6253870822197876 | RtOTG16ydNR1O2vYMqfE | {"NO": 1602.4584796192717, "YES": 59.349654438267066} | 1 | vine-or-tiktok-will-manifold-users | 1401 | Vine or TikTok? Will manifold users think that Vine or TikTok was/is better? | 1716087540000 | W46PM95UYLeYoZ9O5LEKGcMequP2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1713475721942 | Parker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to this poll. Yes for Vine, No for TikTok.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Parker8b43/vine-or-tiktok-which-one-is-or-was", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.270760190364196, "platformFee": 4.270760190364196, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716108075025 | 210 | Parker8b43 | 1716087540000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZNzY-vs9K5ovjLH213RDHvMmrWIfT1RLhjT88ovSM=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1680290007197 | 0 | [{"name": "Social Media", "slug": "social-media", "groupId": "YzNv56EFKyx9DHwGYtIU", "createdTime": 1713475722091}, {"name": "Vine", "slug": "vine-90a3f0bd42ce", "groupId": "f7d5c2d2-d679-48a0-9ec8-7689b6e74581", "createdTime": 1713475722094}, {"name": "TikTok", "slug": "tiktok", "groupId": "MjTB5PFWedvqLHXO0vKz", "cre... | ["social-media", "vine-90a3f0bd42ce", "tiktok"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716059179899 | 1713475834368 | 0.98 | W46PM95UYLeYoZ9O5LEKGcMequP2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0zJCgCrNz6vvPkkgVPga | will-home-team-win-april-19-2024-ma-acc5ab24e073 | 563 | Will home team win? (April 19, 2024 matches) ⚽🏟️ | 1713570236225 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1713475828506 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Will home team win? ( April 19, 2024 matches)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market includes the main football matches taking place on Friday, April 19, 2024. The matches featured in thi... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.1169274119568025, "platformFee": 4.1169274119568025, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713570236225 | 255 | FranklinBaldo | 1713570236225 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 3 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "c83491820079", "prob": 0.22, "text": "19:00 - Athletic Club vs Granada CF (La Liga 🇪🇸)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 61.77313169551334, "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 215.9203770586625, "textFts": "'00':2 '19':1 'athlet':3 'cf':7 'club':4 'granada':6 'la':8 'liga':9 'vs':5",... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1659579722296 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1713475828758}] | ["soccer"] | 0.25 | 1713570208688 | 0.02 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | False | alphabetical | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GhI7NbBEMfh0a9NTPqjZ | will-home-team-win-april-21-2024-ma | 17801.408939759334 | Will home team win? (April 21, 2024 matches) ⚽🏟️ | 1713765600000 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1713475831829 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Will home team win? ( April 21, 2024 matches)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market includes the main football matches taking place on Sunday, April 21, 2024. The matches featured in thi... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 68.57615883687865, "platformFee": 68.57615883687865, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713793959874 | 2490 | FranklinBaldo | 1713795514650 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 25 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "b7ca52cb842d", "prob": 0.9895148460741234, "text": "00:00 - Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro (Brasileirão 🇧🇷)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1176.1106276724647, "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12.46237084156023, "textFts": "'00':1,2 'atletico':4 'atletico-mg':3 'brasileirão':8 'cruzeir... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1659579722296 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1713475832017}] | ["soccer"] | 0.25 | 1713750239862 | 1713795513905 | 0.99 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | False | alphabetical | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
YL4xdoO7Qg3XrQTNGt3Q | whats-going-on-with-taylor-swifts-h | 5357.92411680535 | What's going on with Taylor Swift's hints about the number two? | 1713546762901 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1713476953131 | Joshua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1780388825983860979"}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Taylor Swift's new album comes out tomorrow. In the build up to the release, there have been theories that Taylor has been hinting about some kind of surp... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 21.142840057105875, "platformFee": 21.142840057105875, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713546762901 | 1005 | Joshua | 1713546762901 | 0 | 13 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "45608a1064c3", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Nothing is going on, there's no secret.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.395418954636114, "userId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 927.5477361611067, "textFts": "'go':3 'noth':1 'secret':8", "contractId": "YL4xdoO7Qg3XrQTNGt3Q", "resolution": "NO", ... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1645516283433 | 0 | [{"name": "👸 Taylor Swift", "slug": "taylor-swift", "groupId": "TgyXEpID2HktDrf1QYfB", "createdTime": 1713476987734}, {"name": "🧑🎤 Celebrities", "slug": "celebrities", "groupId": "4QIcUOfCSSha0JZHAg9X", "createdTime": 1713476989984}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC... | ["taylor-swift", "celebrities", "culture-default", "entertainment"] | 0.25 | 1713546740883 | 1713546718335 | 0.01 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
KMhRrXK3bDPkOo8wRrJu | how-long-will-avraham-avi-eisenberg | 90 | How long will Avraham 'Avi' Eisenberg's prison sentence be in the Mango Markets case? | 1722322740000 | r4B7egayyXYPFEDLI5YGAB4NiG32 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713477012324 | JTX | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Avraham Eisenberg ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "1QciKuMz6NXs7Cbc3mk2uio6np43", "label": "AviEisenberg"}}, {"text": " has been", "type": "text"}, {"text": " found guilty", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7610366224723969, "platformFee": 0.7610366224723969, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 205 | JTX | 1713895369682 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIWpw3Ji0_FKBH_hj2ajSiZIzdEesxe7nRROOtu1r8g=s96-c | 2 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "7f5a6719b5c5", "prob": 0.05418556616406129, "text": "<4 years", "color": "#e91e63", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.959347455843157, "userId": "r4B7egayyXYPFEDLI5YGAB4NiG32", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 138.93119959028542, "textFts": "'4':1 'year':2", "contractId": "KMhRrXK3bDPkOo8wRrJu", "createdTime": 1713477012324... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1709796917854 | 0 | [{"name": "Crime", "slug": "crime", "groupId": "j7TkLdIOLyiTtiQQKjl9", "createdTime": 1713477012554}, {"name": "Law Enforcement", "slug": "law-enforcement", "groupId": "186a8847-0246-4974-9e1e-ea747d6faa92", "createdTime": 1713477012549}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "... | ["crime", "law-enforcement", "law-order", "crypto-speculation", "prison-markets"] | 0.25 | 1713895362365 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4960075609214234 | 78FTxHjC3ivDhqhOZtPx | {"NO": 134.53349845295477, "YES": 145.65868701330442} | 0.4761623368541172 | will-the-next-neural-network-archit | 25 | Will the next neural network architectural discovery explicitly incorporate some kind of self-reflection? | 1893560340000 | ADkrLforKWe21IwsNLZejczIlBI3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713477412557 | Thoth Hermes | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LLMs use the Transformer architecture, which incorporates a self-attention mechanism. I am leaving it relatively open as to what should be considered a \"self-reflection\" type of mechanism, but note that traditional feed-forward networks would not... | BINARY | {"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4206225075593569, "platformFee": 0.4206225075593569, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | ThothHermes | 1713796267506 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1692197251657 | 0 | [{"name": "Mechanistic interpretability", "slug": "mechanistic-interpretability", "groupId": "JwFENl9sVYNaFAvdAEJC", "createdTime": 1713477412714}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1713796034232}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "grou... | ["mechanistic-interpretability", "ai", "technical-ai-timelines"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713483608219 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
CusUMqvnFQ8k3mO7gyh2 | llama-3-70bs-elo-on-the-lmsys-arena | 768.3921473133713 | Llama 3 70B's Elo on the Lmsys Arena Leaderboard (two weeks after the first appearance) | 1714795140000 | 8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | f8caa441ce7b | public | 1713477893335 | Sss | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.380246614675684, "platformFee": 9.380246614675684, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714795753682 | 460 | Sss19971997 | 1714795944043 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJYstjF0shAAXTwqQnhiZPJhmg3XSDaVGD2Kttp_TCF=s96-c | 14 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "ff6e85e8e47d", "prob": 0.0417923834327388, "text": "1150-1199", "index": 0, "poolNo": 16.472689836444538, "userId": "8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 377.68261989734697, "textFts": "'-1199':2 '1150':1", "contractId": "CusUMqvnFQ8k3mO7gyh2", "resolverId": "8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1696879998283 | 0 | [{"name": "LLama 3", "slug": "llama-3", "groupId": "a4563e75-0768-4783-ac78-c45e4a46e287", "createdTime": 1713477913701}, {"name": "LLMs", "slug": "llms", "groupId": "7AISXitieE7l07dhslU8", "createdTime": 1713477916568}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1713477919995}, {... | ["llama-3", "llms", "ai", "meta-facebook"] | 0.25 | 1714319911080 | 1714795942426 | {"f8caa441ce7b": 100} | 8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
c3aOR2oxhbMh0WFhXhye | how-many-hurricanes-in-2024 | 10338.361265714544 | How many Hurricanes in 2024? | 1735707540000 | iTQO3gSfwWeu1D70TyOxP5x4r3f1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1713478253187 | Mick Bransfield | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How many Atlantic Hurricanes will occur in 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "National Hurricane Center", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 104.0817619531334, "platformFee": 31.38923684566398, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 3920 | MickBransfield | 1720057788429 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7wtbRzM8LxtnW8APyehAwWYjCwYtgGP9I_hQ5S=s96-c | 32 | 3 | DISABLED | [{"id": "d280a2bc283e", "prob": 0.010852759220325239, "text": "0", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.45184484306293, "userId": "iTQO3gSfwWeu1D70TyOxP5x4r3f1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 770.3219832203263, "textFts": "'0':1", "contractId": "c3aOR2oxhbMh0WFhXhye", "createdTime": 1713478253187, "probChanges": {"day": -3.469446951... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1671671131306 | 0 | [{"name": "2024 Hurricane Season", "slug": "2024-hurricane-season", "groupId": "c02acce6-d125-4a24-9704-1798a5fb2f09", "createdTime": 1713478253774}, {"name": "🌧️ Weather", "slug": "weather", "groupId": "Vw7PuCkPJlK51z43wA4k", "createdTime": 1713478253779}, {"name": "Hurricanes", "slug": "hurricanes", "groupId": "e0cd... | ["2024-hurricane-season", "weather", "hurricanes", "extreme-weather", "climate"] | 0.25 | 1720057785397 | 1716541133725 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RPI1Ch7JpnUe8njNWbXL | who-will-win-the-circle-season-6 | 1260 | Who will win The Circle Season 6? ⭕️ | 1715144340000 | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713479615506 | Matty B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Obviously, this market will spoil Season 6 of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Netflix’s The Circle", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Circle_(American_TV_series)_season_6", "class": "br... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9671081202322345, "platformFee": 1.9671081202322345, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 295 | mattyb | 1714269381922 | 0 | 2 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "a12a151cb46e", "prob": 0.12197124231089047, "text": "Autumn Ann Nielsen", "index": 0, "poolNo": 16.20604541409852, "userId": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 116.66171182978687, "textFts": "'ann':2 'autumn':1 'nielsen':3", "contractId": "RPI1Ch7JpnUe8njNWbXL", "createdTime": 1713479... | 8 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697395701475 | 0 | [{"name": "📺 Television & Film", "slug": "television-film", "groupId": "EUSEngFk1dGGBfaMeAmh", "createdTime": 1713479615763}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1713479615768}, {"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId": "8isZHbaQMsoFz30X... | ["television-film", "entertainment", "tv", "reality-shows", "netflix"] | 0.25 | 1714259074241 | 1714269379821 | True | prob-desc | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.44519380198364544 | o7KoyG6VuNyB0F1o3Sxm | {"NO": 1220.2783940484358, "YES": 718.1350967630356} | 0.5769017205725526 | will-llama-3-400b-be-better-than-gp | 1813.9738090123417 | Will Llama 3 400B be better than GPT-4? | 1735711140000 | WwlOiDUSRQaKR4mPACCIUjryr0o2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.835874169011426 | False | basic | public | 1713480415027 | Pi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if any instance Llama 3 400B tops GPT-4 turbo (currently in 1st place) in the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard within a year of its release.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.012549375079520364, "month": -0.08369927109442798} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 38.790702541114136, "platformFee": 19.676362418688203, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | mudPi314 | 1719876999675 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfLz-CeU4IpWRnFKzCpd_ZtPr8drrF-Ay9ky60GQxPyWA=s96-c | 46 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1688590877752 | 0 | [{"name": "LLama", "slug": "llama", "groupId": "07920ce0-0e0d-4d2f-ad62-42a3c7a9a786", "createdTime": 1713480415193}, {"name": "GPT-4", "slug": "gpt4", "groupId": "eBnKor4XWTFwJQA6TOpd", "createdTime": 1713480415197}, {"name": "LLMs", "slug": "llms", "groupId": "7AISXitieE7l07dhslU8", "createdTime": 1713480415195}, {"n... | ["llama", "gpt4", "llms", "ai", "llama-3"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719876883395 | 1719876998268 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3589518178112964 | 7xDKYU4n31NwWhWEWFCx | {"NO": 243.932022552642, "YES": 335.6962131456738} | 0.28920804147203283 | will-any-candidate-accuse-their-com | 135.2852779442268 | Will any candidate accuse their competitor of "being an AI" in the 2028 election? | 1857099540000 | OFGIpCFT69fNGtojNGf1z6nHg4y1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713480535467 | MF | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is about any candidate for the Senate, the House or the Presidency. Primary races are included.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The accusation has to be about a direct competitor o... | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6623113275060517, "platformFee": 1.6623113275060517, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 280 | costlySignal | 1713999100402 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1659482499752 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1713480535652}, {"name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "groupId": "i5JOzjrK5ZMHPSkhgzoi", "createdTime": 1713480535647}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1713480535... | ["us-politics", "elections", "ai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713999096817 | 1713480663858 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
zJPkZyuqIGqc87UUXGXv | which-jockey-will-have-the-most-win-b15989f36def | 170 | Which jockey will have the most wins at Keeneland on April 20th? | 1713649680000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1713481288780 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will be verified with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Equibase.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://Equibase.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-prima... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.0194734329588977, "platformFee": 2.0194734329588977, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713652996547 | 360 | ovals | 1713649680000 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a5f6a10ff660", "prob": 0.34, "text": "Irad Ortiz, Jr.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 28.37573948672578, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 54.71528644847903, "textFts": "'irad':1 'jr':3 'ortiz':2", "contractId": "zJPkZyuqIGqc87UUXGXv", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaU... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | [{"name": "Jockey", "slug": "jockey", "groupId": "383cbd3e-b514-4419-ba36-e121d65d7b2f", "createdTime": 1713481289010}, {"name": "Horse racing", "slug": "horse-racing", "groupId": "ef96178c-314c-4aed-be84-e13d3875ff06", "createdTime": 1713481289028}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhI... | ["jockey", "horse-racing", "sports-default", "keeneland"] | 0.25 | 1713647494407 | 0.22 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5277234095094319 | 94HjDiHnDejeCtOIhSyJ | {"NO": 169.8838220357088, "YES": 188.40967682451205} | 0.5018758836214775 | will-i-live-and-work-in-the-us-befo | 56.401506051331474 | Will I live and work in the US before 2030? | 1893452340000 | Ujiuau1Tv2P3wnqRJOfWfTKJpom2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713482162103 | MoonPyx | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am a second year computer science student in University of Granada, Spain.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "My long term goals are to eventually, go work in America, ideally in SF or NYC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragrap... | BINARY | {"day": 4.440892098500626e-16, "week": 4.440892098500626e-16, "month": 4.440892098500626e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9544420598235257, "platformFee": 0.9544420598235257, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 180 | MoonPyx | 1713610584368 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1713481129394 | 0 | [{"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1713482162239}, {"name": "United States", "slug": "united-states", "groupId": "5ba769e7-dd37-49d0-bdf2-9f1803f6872e", "createdTime": 1713482162265}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX... | ["personal-goals", "united-states", "metaculus", "world-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713610527444 | 1713610583588 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4330842105756681 | hhsHxNH5Df2olPvIcLBx | {"NO": 23.905947337010844, "YES": 1344.377632447697} | 0 | will-amadeusz-ferrari-win-his-upcom | 2549.5071096631277 | Will Amadeusz Ferrari win his upcoming boxing bout with Salt Papi? | 1715497140000 | M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1713483006801 | Łukasz Bartoszcze | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.383411941837539, "platformFee": 5.383411941837539, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715532146969 | 140 | ukaszBartoszcze | 1715497140000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJAzqOEpDemVFZnDaZ_a1yJBvJ9cAKEBP_qg6nYoNRIBSU=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1708276167391 | 0 | [{"name": "🧑🎤 Celebrities", "slug": "celebrities", "groupId": "4QIcUOfCSSha0JZHAg9X", "createdTime": 1713483006959}, {"name": "Entertainment", "slug": "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "groupId": "YjinY1aCMoxH9UyfXCrv", "createdTime": 1713483006976}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIy... | ["celebrities", "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "sports-default", "boxing", "culture-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715496535887 | 1715496233756 | 0.26 | M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.519131870098147 | JHvSaifMk8MbXu3yhsUW | {"NO": 993.8663774827326, "YES": 997.9173138474428} | 0.5181163682230975 | will-isra-hirsi-ilhan-omars-daughte | 632.8912614991762 | Will Isra Hirsi (Ilhan Omar’s daughter) graduate from Barnard College? | 1767247140000 | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.599896078061732 | False | basic | public | 1713483159353 | Matty B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Rep. Ilhan Omar’s Daughter Suspended for Involvement in Columbia Protest", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/18/nyregion/ilhan-omar-daughter-columbia... | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.80840123015096, "platformFee": 9.80840123015096, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | mattyb | 1714489363792 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697395701475 | 0 | [{"name": "Protest", "slug": "protest-477e21b09291", "groupId": "B68FJhVP7WsoNPK1cFwq", "createdTime": 1713483159780}, {"name": "🇵🇸 Palestine", "slug": "palestine", "groupId": "1de63cc6-7700-472a-a943-e67cb4d3e07d", "createdTime": 1713483159782}, {"name": "Colleges & Universities", "slug": "colleges-universities", "g... | ["protest-477e21b09291", "palestine", "colleges-universities", "us-politics", "israelhamas-conflict-2023"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714489360630 | 1713631248037 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3560610271798837 | u9hLTRKblw6XvEzRANf4 | {"NO": 166.84056903383953, "YES": 9133.065806538712} | 0 | shortfuse-will-any-of-the-12-trumps | 9056.699595670996 | [short-fuse 💣] Will any of the 12 Trump Hush Money trial jurors drop out before opening statements? | 1713799545266 | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.476852490792626 | True | play | NO | public | 1713483920119 | Matty B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Today (Thursday April 18th), Day 3 in the Trump pornstar hush money trial (recap by the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NYT", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/04/18/nyregion/trump-hush-mo... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.21830054164947169} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 25.280515273110694, "platformFee": 25.280515273110694, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713799545266 | 740 | mattyb | 1713799545266 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697395701475 | 0 | [{"name": "Trial of the Century", "slug": "trial-of-the-century", "groupId": "usp0cQDi8y1YG1CCmpfn", "createdTime": 1713483920271}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1713483966213}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44... | ["trial-of-the-century", "donald-trump", "law-order", "2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713799539134 | 1713799534753 | 0.01 | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4169791526156416 | fgW7i0KdhsRKIZV2WobS | {"NO": 27.35895914989217, "YES": 1782.1308780351314} | 0.01086044952142095 | will-weed-be-rescheduled-by-july-4t | 1784.1355720144077 | Will weed be rescheduled by July 4th? | 1720162740000 | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713484227412 | Dan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES if the DEA reschedules or unschedules marijuana away from Level 1. Otherwise, resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be in effect, not just announced.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.0008604495214209404, "week": -0.04030510766248246, "month": -0.04030510766248246} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.6977559331614245, "platformFee": 3.8132230958597524, "liquidityFee": 0} | 1 | 160 | DanMan314 | 1720239417157 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1673046794414 | 0 | [{"name": "Drugs", "slug": "drugs", "groupId": "6277e258-91d0-4621-8487-f98ffa56b0c5", "createdTime": 1713484227772}, {"name": "Cannabis", "slug": "cannabis", "groupId": "4d7535ea-5cd1-45fa-bc6c-8ad82bc06c74", "createdTime": 1713484227770}, {"name": "Drug Policy", "slug": "drug-policy", "groupId": "B6bj6VYMErDbfcWWSpAj... | ["drugs", "cannabis", "drug-policy"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720161953545 | 1720239415206 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
kIAw8yck06jbQxuVny62 | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-0060c0eff5bb | 0 | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Homer Simpson? | 1713555392426 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1713484242009 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX", "label": "/strutheo/who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713555420591 | strutheo | 1713555395418 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1713484242234}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1713484242235}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 17134... | ["polls", "donald-trump", "us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "future-us-presidents"] | 0.25 | ["9a2f75b3fcfb"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
h82JM9nKA9sYTf09RBJB | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-9557bf3961f2 | 0 | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Margaret Thatcher? | 1713533792524 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1713484255535 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX", "label": "/strutheo/who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713533820683 | strutheo | 1713533793641 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1713484255694}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1713484255693}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "g... | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "donald-trump", "us-politics", "future-us-presidents", "polls"] | 0.25 | ["eade17d9edd7"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
QZi5B2QcsesHOOdV6e26 | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-3c56e010703e | 0 | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Glenn Quagmire? | 1713549898556 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1713484271228 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX", "label": "/strutheo/who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713549901050 | strutheo | 1713549899578 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1713484271378}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1713484271383}, {"name": "Future US Presidents", "slug": "future-us-pr... | ["donald-trump", "2024-us-presidential-election", "future-us-presidents", "us-politics", "polls"] | 0.25 | 1713484825737 | ["204a81df12f7"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7176563631045912 | 6npe7oBAYhJLzx1lKTSx | {"NO": 19.63738506977586, "YES": 4941.483916539441} | 0 | will-any-of-the-trump-hush-money-tr | 7055.890350232585 | Will any of the Trump Hush Money trial jurors have their identities leaked during the trial? | 1717115195370 | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.355609129644392 | True | basic | NO | public | 1713484336325 | Matty B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The judge ordered that the jurors’ identities be kept confidential during the trial and that reporters withhold some information that could identify them.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 54.48512717264958, "platformFee": 38.534141719913634, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717115195370 | 1055 | mattyb | 1717115195370 | 0 | 63 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697395701475 | 0 | [{"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1713484336512}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1713484336505}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTi... | ["donald-trump", "us-politics", "law-order", "trump-indictments", "trial-of-the-century"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717112370786 | 1717115073631 | 0.01 | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
21FibjBw2qU5uifHO7MP | which-is-the-last-round-that-carlos | 39 | Which is the last round that Carlos Alcaraz will advance to in the 2024 MUTUA MADRID OPEN tournament? | 1713970800000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | b1ab4a3c61c9 | public | 1713484528947 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will close at 10:00 AM CT on the tournament's first day and will be verified with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.atptour.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.a... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9331225706509383, "platformFee": 0.9331225706509383, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714606662430 | 160 | ovals | 1714606761475 | 0 | 3 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "19d5a08a6fc6", "prob": 0.18022163413606615, "text": "R16", "index": 0, "poolNo": 18.924742748713577, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 86.08342033577782, "textFts": "'r16':1", "contractId": "21FibjBw2qU5uifHO7MP", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime":... | 2 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1713484529182}, {"name": "🎾 Tennis", "slug": "tennis", "groupId": "1mvN9vIVIopcWiAsXhzp", "createdTime": 1713484529187}, {"name": "ATP Tour", "slug": "atp-tour", "groupId": "a841d448-0950-41ba-a122-91322746e7dc", "creat... | ["sports-default", "tennis", "atp-tour", "carlos-alcaraz"] | 0.25 | 1713739965670 | 1714606760055 | {"b1ab4a3c61c9": 100} | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7u0txO3A4tlSrx8uTuvA | fide-chess-candidates-tournament-ro-d8cb52f39815 | 30377.746594545835 | FIDE Chess Candidates Tournament - Round 13 Bets | 1713668340000 | FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1713484727052 | Weezing | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You are welcome to add your own options.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Games start 20th of April at 2:30 PM EDT (~42 hours from market creation). Come live bet with us.", "type": "text"}]}, ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 142.24477870224743, "platformFee": 142.24477870224743, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713705410285 | 4520 | Weezing | 1713668340000 | 0 | 20 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3947113a66f6", "prob": 0.99, "text": "Someone takes sole lead", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1097.5222772303148, "userId": "FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 11.086083608387028, "textFts": "'lead':4 'sole':3 'someon':1 'take':2", "contractId": "7u0txO3A4tlSrx8uTuvA", "resolution": "YES", "re... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700212225777 | 0 | [{"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1713484727351}, {"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b3ll9Ch9rdbcrTRAbjUf", "createdTime": 1713484727358}, {"name": "Chess candidates 2024", "slug": "chess-candidates-2024", "groupId": "09ea3682-1d3f-4f6... | ["chess", "sports-betting", "chess-candidates-2024"] | 0.25 | 1713662405882 | 1713705192170 | 0.92 | FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1 | False | liquidity | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
LH2rY2sCoim6bA7I8bst | which-is-the-last-round-that-rafael | 39 | Which is the last round that Rafael Nadal will advance to in the 2024 MUTUA MADRID OPEN tournament? | 1713970800000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | 332f6a5a579e | public | 1713484735986 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will close at 10:00 AM CT on the tournament's first day and will be verified with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.atptour.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.a... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0842859959810205, "platformFee": 1.0842859959810205, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714530848728 | 120 | ovals | 1713970800000 | 0 | 2 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "332f6a5a579e", "prob": 0.11113398211129809, "text": "R16", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.207388943571328, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 81.64020573137576, "textFts": "'r16':1", "contractId": "LH2rY2sCoim6bA7I8bst", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime":... | 2 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1713484736217}, {"name": "🎾 Tennis", "slug": "tennis", "groupId": "1mvN9vIVIopcWiAsXhzp", "createdTime": 1713484736255}, {"name": "ATP Tour", "slug": "atp-tour", "groupId": "a841d448-0950-41ba-a122-91322746e7dc", "creat... | ["sports-default", "tennis", "atp-tour", "rafael-nadal"] | 0.25 | 1713740003954 | 1714530835527 | {"332f6a5a579e": 100} | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05581173917569036 | cL1yLqjTYr4ueYGWFpJK | {"NO": 749.0037499448464, "YES": 4254.325888073954} | 0 | will-the-us-veto-another-un-palesti | 7480.814665580612 | Will the US veto another UN Palestinian statehood resolution in the next 30 days? | 1716094740000 | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | NO | public | 1713484857795 | Matty B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "U.S. Vetoes Palestinian Bid for Recognition as Full U.N. Member State", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/18/world/middleeast/palestinian-statehood-u... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.01029968412767119} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 25.758827464445837, "platformFee": 25.758827464445837, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717431429094 | 1000 | mattyb | 1716094740000 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 4 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697395701475 | 0 | [{"name": "🇵🇸 Palestine", "slug": "palestine", "groupId": "1de63cc6-7700-472a-a943-e67cb4d3e07d", "createdTime": 1713484858284}, {"name": "United Nations", "slug": "united-nations", "groupId": "41b22946-b798-4d04-b362-ff8d88e3b03f", "createdTime": 1713484858287}, {"name": "Israeli Politics", "slug": "israeli-politics... | ["palestine", "united-nations", "israeli-politics", "united-states", "israel"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716092896414 | 1717426902188 | 0.01 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.33650776213664124 | kZ1M3wodVTPEyJxM7LLi | {"NO": 168.36006447791522, "YES": 320.9782859966536} | 0.21012626561464487 | will-the-uk-vote-in-favor-of-a-un-p | 180 | Will the UK vote in favour of a UN Palestinian statehood resolution in 2024? | 1735711140000 | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713485008147 | Matty B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "U.S. Vetoes Palestinian Bid for Recognition as Full U.N. Member State", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/18/world/middleeast/palestinian-statehood-u... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.04016487966705068} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.3796309157438844, "platformFee": 1.573906472499657, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 220 | mattyb | 1717724594476 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697395701475 | 0 | [{"name": "United Nations", "slug": "united-nations", "groupId": "41b22946-b798-4d04-b362-ff8d88e3b03f", "createdTime": 1713485008287}, {"name": "🇵🇸 Palestine", "slug": "palestine", "groupId": "1de63cc6-7700-472a-a943-e67cb4d3e07d", "createdTime": 1713485008289}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupI... | ["united-nations", "palestine", "uk-politics", "israeli-politics", "israel"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717724591371 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
oyyUYfM1QyRRMY24AHRe | would-you-be-concerned-if-your-ai-p | 0 | Would you be concerned if your AI prompt history was made public via hacking/data leak? | 1716091140000 | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1713485247465 | JRP | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716091141263 | parhizj | 1713666468646 | 0 | 60 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1684698640145 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1713485247644}] | ["ai"] | 0.25 | 1713666468092 | ["aae4140d7b21"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
sxYe5UZxD72vSVw8YYyl | which-first-lady-would-win-a-hot-do | 0 | Which First Lady would win a hot dog eating contest? | 1730872740000 | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1713485931246 | Plasma Ballin' | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifold seems to agree that Donald Trump would beat Joe Biden in a hot dog eating contest, but how about their first ladies? Suggested by JRP on Discord.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | PlasmaBallin | 1713575918196 | 0 | 67 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668786016313 | 0 | [{"name": "Women", "slug": "women", "groupId": "a0824df9-b437-4e7b-b9be-d94202705305", "createdTime": 1713485931397}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1713485931393}, {"name": "🍝 Food", "slug": "food", "groupId": "F6DkK24HpilV3Et7xJv7", "createdTime"... | ["women", "us-politics", "food"] | 0.25 | 1713575917456 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23217437520547504 | 994PMaxPCNnoNHL1OOJt | {"NO": 1001.6978237232087, "YES": 908.6772785026138} | 0.25000000000000056 | will-palestine-be-fully-recognized-f13028571679 | 439.9228271165537 | Will Palestine be fully recognized as a United Nations member state before Ukraine joins NATO? | 1956545940000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.441585263364846 | False | basic | public | 1713485972465 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_State_of_Palestine", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_State_of_Palestine", "class": "break-an... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.02449573170643224} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.899329008100701, "platformFee": 3.616994876322913, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1718992222460 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1713485972618}, {"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "groupId": "cea99c1c-afb9-49b2-adfa-9be739adce10", "createdTime": 1713485972625}, {"name": "Ukraine", "s... | ["ukrainerussia-war", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "ukraine", "palestine", "world-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718992219373 | 1716389273644 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.348200698218197 | NJyio8xKvUxMjieevvr1 | {"NO": 108.37448146629932, "YES": 917.4124751484028} | 0.05936098848943458 | will-spice-balances-be-larger-than | 822.6283044869297 | Will Prize Point Balances be larger than Mana Balances at any point in 2024? | 1735711140000 | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713486764676 | Matty B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As per ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/stats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/stats", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decorat... | BINARY | {"day": 6.938893903907228e-18, "week": 6.938893903907228e-18, "month": 6.938893903907228e-18} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.9796101823336976, "platformFee": 3.9796101823336976, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 240 | mattyb | 1716315894295 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697395701475 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1713486764840}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1713486764838}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifo... | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-business-future", "manifold-users", "manifold-6748e065087e", "spice"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716315890836 | 1713826550893 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
skVEvbgtISBP5KEZK8TD | help-me-solve-this-stats-problem | 0 | Help me solve this stats problem | 1713967864136 | 1g8P6pHRRLg4kaRxAMKyCCXn2mb2 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1713487138531 | NBAP | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have an unusual distribution of values, and I need help finding a way to calculate the probability of observing at least one value of X or lower in such a distribution (of equal size).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragra... | BOUNTIED_QUESTION | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713967864136 | NBAP | 1713967847997 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNBAP%2FqpSlMKH-74.57?alt=media&token=115d6799-daaf-47c9-8a52-f318b0a9688e | 0 | 0 | 0 | ["jmj01YaTTqACzcI8u2O7"] | 0.3333333333333333 | 1685661001561 | 0 | [{"name": "probability", "slug": "probability", "groupId": "6801b495-7a44-40b3-b717-0fb4536c25b6", "createdTime": 1713487138714}, {"name": "Statistics", "slug": "statistics", "groupId": "5a0a1696-a330-4a0c-8ad5-a90208ab3984", "createdTime": 1713487138735}] | ["probability", "statistics"] | 0.25 | 1713967846456 | 1g8P6pHRRLg4kaRxAMKyCCXn2mb2 | 200 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
cfkXjZd7kEzbKVbrnUVp | which-of-trumps-12-jurors-will-leav | 9420.114472709969 | Which of Trump's 12 Jurors will leave the Jury next? | 1717105840411 | vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | 74d0e72f7b2b | public | 1713487222019 | Manifold Politics | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In Trump's Manhattan Hush Money Trial, two jurors who were sworn in have already been", "type": "text"}, {"text": " excused and replaced", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.axios.com/2024/04/18/trump-jury-exc... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 46.86436466145086, "platformFee": 33.06936866300419, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717105840411 | 1530 | ManifoldPolitics | 1717105840411 | 0 | 50 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "e53f048bd15c", "prob": 0.00039718936526171193, "text": "Juror 1: The foreman. Lives in West Harlem and works in sales. Married, likes the outdoors, and gets news from The New York Times, Fox News and MSNBC. Had heard of some of Trump's other cases, but did not have an opinion of him.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701801625125 | 0 | [{"name": "Trump indictment(s)", "slug": "trump-indictments", "groupId": "l8rzwticUu7jFUpOZnY2", "createdTime": 1713487222370}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1713487222372}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdL... | ["trump-indictments", "us-politics", "politics-default", "the-life-of-biden", "donald-trump"] | 0.25 | 1717103349766 | 1717105287636 | {"74d0e72f7b2b": 100} | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | True | prob-desc | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2553463454232901 | vfy3x8MTjUOUFXGVwyqB | {"NO": 150.8173677324549, "YES": 5119.904643689201} | 0 | will-we-be-happy-after-learning-wha | 5129.173021913672 | Will we be happy after learning what the pivot is? | 1713843806087 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.2171635494708966 | True | play | NO | public | 1713487320918 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The removal of loans, the introduction of trading fees, and the elimination of the unique trader bonus have been met with numerous complaints on Discord.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "James,... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.43059170682567954} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.93896053420615, "platformFee": 11.93896053420615, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713843806087 | 460 | AmmonLam | 1713843818409 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 20 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "Pivot Predictions", "slug": "pivot-predictions", "groupId": "6iOdS5vCFUBWysZiBH1F", "createdTime": 1713487321126}] | ["pivot-predictions"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713842198764 | 1713843817966 | 0.01 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
cNjoVv0lkHowHlGNJ6DG | which-of-trumps-12-jurors-will-leav-f36d1b26c310 | 0 | Which of Trump's 12 Jurors do you most identify with? | 1735718340000 | vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1713487457757 | Manifold Politics | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In Trump's Manhattan Hush Money Trial, a jury of 12 has now been sworn in. Of these 12 jurors, which one do most identify with based on what we know of them?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Th... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | ManifoldPolitics | 1713487498283 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701801625125 | 0 | [{"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1713487457920}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1713487457922}, {"name": "Trump indictment(s)", "slug": "trump-indictments", "groupId": "l8rzwt... | ["the-life-of-biden", "us-politics", "trump-indictments", "politics-default", "donald-trump"] | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4359740342017476 | FCWxifU2LJqFlZssubFd | {"NO": 133.81839797820268, "YES": 325.6799331560944} | 0.2410467909764445 | will-bidens-cancer-moonshot-initiat | 153 | Will Biden's Cancer Moonshot initiative reduce age-adjusted cancer mortality by 50 percent within the next 25 years? | 2240726340000 | vJ6st6ALYMZtRSdaKgsvCVU9ml83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713488353077 | William Gunn | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In 2016, President Biden announced the Cancer Moonshot initiative, with the goal to reduce age-adjusted cancer mortality by 50 percent within the next 25 years. The new NIH director said in a recent interview on Freakonomics that it's achievable, b... | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.8925493294235025, "platformFee": 1.8925493294235025, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | WilliamGunn | 1715116574281 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI_Y3g5zswaq1RKW15ILtiURE_lpgb9Bgmz95cDkBlsOdc=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700277311220 | 0 | [{"name": "🫀 Health", "slug": "health", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1713488353228}, {"name": "Biotech", "slug": "biotech", "groupId": "zx0Pik5lD4jydGPxbLjB", "createdTime": 1713488353242}, {"name": "Cancer", "slug": "cancer", "groupId": "Ael4esMwXS9k34wDBglo", "createdTime": 1713488353247}, {"nam... | ["health", "biotech", "cancer", "science-default", "medicine"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715116570892 | 1713635316198 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ed73dtZpKLrRyASSYB67 | what-will-happen-to-wizardlm-2 | 110 | What will happen to WizardLM 2? | 1716699540000 | JxsA1M9PKGRpQENQNfGoAmvsoB12 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | e08696fb263b | public | 1713488856329 | raizel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.0269253429956633, "platformFee": 2.0269253429956633, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717219522435 | 200 | raizel | 1716699540000 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e08696fb263b", "prob": 0.542920578516016, "text": "It will never be re-uploaded officially.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 34.359866706957845, "userId": "JxsA1M9PKGRpQENQNfGoAmvsoB12", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 28.92722917154961, "textFts": "'never':3 'offici':8 're':6 're-upload':5 'upload':7", "contractId": "ed7... | 2 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1713315203052 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1713488856539}] | ["ai"] | 0.25 | 1714099998074 | 1717219512632 | {"e08696fb263b": 100} | JxsA1M9PKGRpQENQNfGoAmvsoB12 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | TDT3RqGAODquB5jFCIsi | {"NO": 85.15024867675938, "YES": 117.4394691195936} | 0.420308837007977 | the-pivot-stock | 18 | "The Pivot" Stock | 1713495947095 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7385062623857928 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1713488861812 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Buy if you think the Pivot will be great. Sell if you think the Pivot will be disappointing.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This is a permanent market which trades on sentiment. The aim is to sell your st... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.04248830705440537} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.2802654402031982, "platformFee": 0.2802654402031982, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713495947095 | 120 | AmmonLam | 1713495959647 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "Pivot Predictions", "slug": "pivot-predictions", "groupId": "6iOdS5vCFUBWysZiBH1F", "createdTime": 1713488862059}] | ["pivot-predictions"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713495670330 | 1713495958941 | 0.42 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3988308310207327 | AeKuZAp2aiAMjQkg9ReG | {"NO": 99.67781083692824, "YES": 1006.7031028022261} | 0 | will-nvidia-nasdaq-nvda-close-highe-22ff7d505363 | 1329.6827945065224 | Will Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) close higher Apr 19 than Apr 18? | 1713555000000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8256961497177213 | True | play | NO | public | 1713488984720 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NVIDIA Corp - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Resolves to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nasdaq Historical Data", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.06163946253226802} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.961207412181643, "platformFee": 8.961207412181643, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713570338856 | 280 | KeenenW | 1713555000000 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "Nvidia", "slug": "nvidia", "groupId": "43f31fc9-9568-44c6-842c-7c9e091b81c3", "createdTime": 1713488984889}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1713488984888}, {"name": "Tech Stocks", "slug": "tech-stocks", "groupId": "pK06hNX8MsNw8zaBsX2N", "createdTime... | ["nvidia", "stocks", "tech-stocks", "ai-stocks", "finance"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713552486861 | 0.06 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
gBhPXLIBidHoM2rRq6Tw | what-will-the-new-spice-pletter-cur | 49968.808822087914 | What will the new “Spice” (P-letter) currency be called? | 1715908340650 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1713489345715 | Predictor 🔥 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve when the currency is officially announced and available to the community on this website. Not in the source code, dev, or in the secret group text chain (discord). It needs to be live and I need to have some or be able to get some. If ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 245.79630593597162, "platformFee": 245.79630593597162, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715908340650 | 7855 | Predictor | 1715922901886 | 0 | 87 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "9a7ab0a60645", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Spice", "index": 0, "poolNo": 36.73579265716694, "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3636.8434730595227, "textFts": "'spice':1", "contractId": "gBhPXLIBidHoM2rRq6Tw", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "crea... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1644461353687 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1713489345919}, {"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1713489345921}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe... | ["technology-default", "crypto-speculation", "world-default", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 1715904273698 | 1715922823806 | 0.99 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.44854486797779747 | nTwwJ5Q81yiQKiIs647g | {"NO": 114.37606465374074, "YES": 9210.136220055692} | 0 | will-this-francis-bacon-painting-se | 8878.809953272268 | Will this Francis Bacon painting sell for >$50 million at its upcoming Sotheby's auction? (pic included) | 1715658147467 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1713489620778 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Sotheby's auction house is about to auction off an extremely famous painting by Francis Bacon. Link:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Francis Bacon - Portrait of George Dyer Crouching", "ty... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 26.14457364178116, "platformFee": 26.14457364178116, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715658147467 | 820 | Ziddletwix | 1715730486179 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "Arts", "slug": "arts", "groupId": "rvlLWOxULpzwHIaMDePa", "createdTime": 1713489621058}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1713489621061}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC",... | ["arts", "entertainment", "culture-default", "economics-default", "auctions"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715658086042 | 1715730484944 | 0.01 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6088546849178171 | C449LzpctVbxRPXSSR4m | {"NO": 21.047939002163886, "YES": 757.2914121044056} | 0 | will-reddit-nyse-rddt-close-higher-fe1f0b8c984c | 792.7661948875902 | Will Reddit (NYSE: RDDT) close higher Apr 19 than Apr 18? | 1713555000000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.11226812883485 | True | play | NO | public | 1713489727366 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reddit Inc - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Resolves to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NYSE Close Price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nyse.com/quote/XNYS:RDDT", "class": "brea... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.04146942689642483} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.506640355769063, "platformFee": 10.506640355769063, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713569411378 | 200 | KeenenW | 1713555000000 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1713489727517}, {"name": "RDDT", "slug": "rddt", "groupId": "e08066d9-d0a9-4047-9005-a16b8e966b9a", "createdTime": 1713489727524}, {"name": "Reddit", "slug": "reddit", "groupId": "DGXfEkwxk3kRk6Tz6tzV", "createdTime": 17134897275... | ["stocks", "rddt", "reddit", "tech-stocks", "ai-stocks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713552501097 | 0.04 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4022414749365916 | KyWUr47KTFEwT9iiHS4F | {"NO": 77.8802827414693, "YES": 963.430654012921} | 0 | will-apple-nasdaq-aapl-close-higher-a7c8c46d8d7e | 1293.7515995123258 | Will Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) close higher Apr 19 than Apr 18? | 1713555000000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.135914975431106 | True | play | NO | public | 1713490006483 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Apple Inc - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Resolves to", "type": "text"}, {"text": " Nasdaq Close Price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/aapl/h... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.05158985642979881} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.822561970506022, "platformFee": 7.822561970506022, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713569427266 | 240 | KeenenW | 1713555000000 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "Tech Stocks", "slug": "tech-stocks", "groupId": "pK06hNX8MsNw8zaBsX2N", "createdTime": 1713490006721}, {"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1713490006722}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 171349000672... | ["tech-stocks", "apple", "stocks", "ai-stocks", "aapl"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713552464002 | 0.05 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
tjbGm2lMHtanLKe9WhzD | diebenkorn-vs-fontana-which-20m-pai | 34671.01108043762 | DIEBENKORN vs FONTANA: which ($20M+!!) artwork will sell for more at the Sotheby's auction? (pics included) | 1715698369177 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | 0096e0e31d56 | public | 1713490347587 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is a duel between two expensive paintings listed for sale at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Sotheby's \"Contemporary Evening Auction\" in New York", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.sothebys.com/e... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 26.907626459146954, "platformFee": 26.907626459146954, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715698369177 | 800 | Ziddletwix | 1720053161621 | 0 | 14 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "481f05c27ac3", "prob": 0.0004669604682339856, "text": "RICHARD DIEBENKORN - Ocean Park #126", "color": "#03a9f4", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.458160756401412, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20245.277303621486, "textFts": "'126':5 'diebenkorn':2 'ocean':3 'park':4 'richard':1... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1713490347798}, {"name": "Arts", "slug": "arts", "groupId": "rvlLWOxULpzwHIaMDePa", "createdTime": 1713490347811}, {"name": "Auctions", "slug": "auctions", "groupId": "31bb8a2c-5300-4f17-8c1c-4b9f4589722a", "created... | ["economics-default", "arts", "auctions", "culture-default", "entertainment"] | 0.25 | 1715698347685 | 1715730526040 | {"0096e0e31d56": 100} | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ydNmPjDQmP9FGHOmTEhU | israel-just-struck-iran-how-will-ir | 5475.611296083915 | Israel just struck Iran. How will Iran respond within the next 7 days? [ADD RESPONSES] | 1714103940000 | ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1713490833424 | mint | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any answer which is widely regarded as true that occurs within one week of this markets creation will resolve YES. Context:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1781134417588625623"}}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 39.438080650334875, "platformFee": 39.438080650334875, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714104595366 | 2085 | mint | 1714103940000 | 0 | 34 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ab6d9ffccc01", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Formal declaration of war against Israel", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.157053903275735, "userId": "ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 901.9179432978195, "textFts": "'declar':2 'formal':1 'israel':6 'war':4", "contractId": "ydNmPjDQmP9FGHOmTEhU", "resol... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697647723543 | 0 | [{"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1713490833855}, {"name": "🐪 Middle East", "slug": "middle-east", "groupId": "xg8wCPeM9JP6gD0igBrA", "createdTime": 1713490833854}, {"name": "Iran", "slug": "iran", "groupId": "E1hI0LQPWmoAcpvhcjHa", "createdTime": 171349083385... | ["israel", "middle-east", "iran"] | 0.25 | 1714082050147 | 1713510734905 | 0.88 | ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2588645158491722 | q5g9CTDHJXYUa7ds04sj | {"NO": 402.33126331070974, "YES": 13787.631441057705} | 0 | will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi | 22597.073424956354 | Will Iran attack Israel AGAIN within 30 days of being attacked by them? | 1716091140000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | NO | public | 1713491282026 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "M5kPbpOc7P6lARfawFMS", "label": "/strutheo/will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi-97077e4e70ad"}}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "cDw... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 73.95550904878546, "platformFee": 73.95550904878546, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716091587123 | 1055 | strutheo | 1716091140000 | 0 | 77 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1713491282201}, {"name": "Iran", "slug": "iran", "groupId": "E1hI0LQPWmoAcpvhcjHa", "createdTime": 1713491282206}, {"name": "⚔️ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1713491282216}, {"name": "... | ["israel", "iran", "wars", "geopolitics", "israelhamas-conflict-2023"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716071725707 | 1714135860564 | 0.01 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1480970565953246 | M5kPbpOc7P6lARfawFMS | {"NO": 380.1358144511434, "YES": 5518.247719374063} | 0 | will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi-97077e4e70ad | 8653.860061933736 | Will Iran attack Israel AGAIN within 72 hours of being attacked by them? | 1713751145560 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.620137260610015 | True | play | NO | public | 1713491321772 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "cDwSg3yujUcaOeRFFhrU", "label": "/strutheo/will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi-906f3c939b73"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "q5g... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.011861368209233865} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.86393993682415, "platformFee": 20.86393993682415, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713751145560 | 620 | strutheo | 1713751145560 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "⚔️ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1713491321930}, {"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "groupId": "cea99c1c-afb9-49b2-adfa-9be739adce10", "createdTime": 1713491321921}, {"name": "🌎 Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "grou... | ["wars", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "geopolitics", "iran", "israel"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713742922487 | 1713721205913 | 0.01 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21307639721528793 | cDwSg3yujUcaOeRFFhrU | {"NO": 503.25553307214955, "YES": 13490.452787455588} | 0 | will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi-906f3c939b73 | 24469.67417297294 | Will Iran attack Israel AGAIN within one week of being attacked by them? | 1714100208807 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.9216042137735085 | True | basic | NO | public | 1713491337019 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "M5kPbpOc7P6lARfawFMS", "label": "/strutheo/will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi-97077e4e70ad"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "q5g... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.011361254192363486} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 85.44740448142299, "platformFee": 85.44740448142299, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714100208807 | 1120 | strutheo | 1714100208807 | 0 | 59 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "groupId": "cea99c1c-afb9-49b2-adfa-9be739adce10", "createdTime": 1713491337173}, {"name": "Iran", "slug": "iran", "groupId": "E1hI0LQPWmoAcpvhcjHa", "createdTime": 1713491337171}, {"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjp... | ["israelhamas-conflict-2023", "iran", "israel", "geopolitics", "wars"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714098109399 | 1713878418034 | 0.01 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5815247449798431 | xTCWMpMdKVhmAQwM5Pqx | {"NO": 1062.7080314253997, "YES": 948.9667158908838} | 0.6087921041025437 | if-iran-launches-more-missiles-towa | 239.65118934618522 | If Iran launches more missiles towards Israel in response to the recent attack will 2 or more people die | 1716091140000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.756373770999096 | False | basic | public | 1713491374421 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "must be in response to the recent attack Israel made", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-16, "week": -5.551115123125783e-16, "month": -5.551115123125783e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.037737863491685, "platformFee": 4.037737863491685, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JamesF | 1716086151008 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 20 | 0 | 6 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "Iran", "slug": "iran", "groupId": "E1hI0LQPWmoAcpvhcjHa", "createdTime": 1713491374592}, {"name": "Arab-Israeli Conflict", "slug": "arabisraeli-conflict", "groupId": "aheUmZtjkKBkeiXwIFhI", "createdTime": 1713491374619}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "create... | ["iran", "arabisraeli-conflict", "world-default", "israel", "middle-east"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716086147817 | 1714147118808 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
e6GeL125Vql9QGJcwqaM | what-is-my-risk-of-serious-injury-o | 37 | What is my risk of serious injury or death if I encounter a black/polar/grizzly bear alone in the wild? | 1714168740000 | Wb5eZPHyiraJUzb4AxKrfudgLyq1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713491652644 | Dawn Drescher | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sorry, I have no way of resolving this. (Only one life.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Encounter = Less than 50 m distance and the bear has noticed me. I have no bear combat training or weap... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5920284425485773, "platformFee": 0.5920284425485773, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 185 | DawnDrescher | 1714162738248 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu-45kmSUevyMYN5C6oSfe9pEk7MVGFpp1zzeXO08_8=s96-c | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ef81b3cb2a50", "prob": 0.3536494653634228, "text": "1:10", "index": 0, "poolNo": 39.315990395719275, "userId": "Wb5eZPHyiraJUzb4AxKrfudgLyq1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 71.85621328714723, "textFts": "'1':1 '10':2", "contractId": "e6GeL125Vql9QGJcwqaM", "createdTime": 1713491652644, "probChanges": {"day": 0,... | 10 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1664467301276 | 0 | [{"name": "Hiking", "slug": "hiking", "groupId": "ed0d67d9-359b-44df-a2dc-37dea2ed5ff5", "createdTime": 1713491652908}, {"name": "Nature", "slug": "nature", "groupId": "FT4bkhrmTZ3JZq00FeNK", "createdTime": 1713491652911}] | ["hiking", "nature"] | 0.25 | 1714162734762 | 1714085516975 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
B7qfiOobM1fNVTQ1ofC0 | in-new-york-city-what-will-be-the-h | 1176.091285685425 | In New York City, what will be the high temperature on April 19, 2024? | 1713542400000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | 80c9b9736282 | public | 1713492554661 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will close at 12:00 PM ET on the day of interest and will be verified with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/usa/new-york/historic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.955416043181227, "platformFee": 8.955416043181227, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713576221208 | 275 | ovals | 1713576258882 | 0 | 5 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "246bbe12484e", "prob": 0.01307937307757452, "text": "76F +", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.233755821179609, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 319.4633966393365, "textFts": "'76f':1", "contractId": "B7qfiOobM1fNVTQ1ofC0", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime"... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | [{"name": "New York", "slug": "new-york", "groupId": "WHYL7vwzRusHiIbe3uRu", "createdTime": 1713492554957}, {"name": "🌧️ Weather", "slug": "weather", "groupId": "Vw7PuCkPJlK51z43wA4k", "createdTime": 1713492554960}, {"name": "High Temperature", "slug": "high-temperature", "groupId": "e9da999c-dd54-4492-960f-ed7520bc2c... | ["new-york", "weather", "high-temperature", "climate"] | 0.25 | 1713540030791 | 1713576258400 | {"80c9b9736282": 100} | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4059762513603458 | mscd301Tkm0FU1uJUuTZ | {"NO": 112.83535342649364, "YES": 324.89602313687817} | 0.1918242233038352 | if-10-people-die-in-israel-as-a-res | 187.6209245762964 | if >10 people die in Israel as a result from Iran's missile strikes will there be a formal war between Iran and Israel | 1735707540000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713492671892 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Death totals will be taken from the Israel government. A formal war will be any declaration of war from either side, or soldiers(not proxies) from either country fight on the other countries land.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9736066410762914, "platformFee": 1.9736066410762914, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 180 | JamesF | 1713894030437 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1713492672208}, {"name": "⚔️ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1713492672211}, {"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1713492672214... | ["world-default", "wars", "israel", "iran", "middle-east"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713894027011 | 1713493502477 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Hc605PJHFsnFsRGZhTJ9 | before-which-year-will-a-venus-samp | 357.37473802937217 | Before which year will a Venus Sample Return Mission be successfully completed? | 3313583940000 | 2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713492819891 | Josh Wilkes | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/venus-sample-return-mission-studied", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/venus-sample-return-mission-studied", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:dec... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.536914813787712, "platformFee": 5.536914813787712, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 350 | JoshuaWilkes | 1713851708961 | 0 | 5 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "5c52cc21fd70", "prob": 0.039440981311544575, "text": "2035", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.88155451359292, "userId": "2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 191.95004833970498, "textFts": "'2035':1", "contractId": "Hc605PJHFsnFsRGZhTJ9", "createdTime": 1713492819891, "probChanges": {"day": -1.38... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1662006482315 | 0 | [{"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1713492820124}, {"name": "Venus", "slug": "venus", "groupId": "34996296-1c7b-42aa-ae6e-5b4523881020", "createdTime": 1713492820117}, {"name": "🔭 Space exploration", "slug": "space-exploration", "groupId": "7EN6VxtLzX459WLUsjQv", "... | ["space", "venus", "space-exploration", "venus-exploration"] | 0.25 | 1713851705020 | 1713578498106 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5789663487073048 | 4Eo4JrCWykVwYeivznwN | {"NO": 182.30223606966598, "YES": 109.51113771817991} | 0.6959681184409254 | if-iran-strikes-israel-againwithin | 255.20161286097064 | If Iran strikes Israel again(within a month) will Israel strike back within 72 hours | 1716350340000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1713493461410 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Occur within the internationally recognized borders of Iran. Iran's internal waters and territorial sea (the latter being Iran's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the s... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.3701800270014313, "platformFee": 3.3701800270014313, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716843603762 | 140 | JamesF | 1716350340000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "Iran", "slug": "iran", "groupId": "E1hI0LQPWmoAcpvhcjHa", "createdTime": 1713493461563}, {"name": "🐪 Middle East", "slug": "middle-east", "groupId": "xg8wCPeM9JP6gD0igBrA", "createdTime": 1713493461565}, {"name": "Israel-Iran Conflict", "slug": "israeliran-conflict", "groupId": "4014ef1a-d3cc-4f73-8448-4975... | ["iran", "middle-east", "israeliran-conflict", "wars", "israel"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716338027894 | 1716843600301 | 0.7 | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07353426552972472 | rhevC5pBUcd6uUPPrl5e | {"NO": 839.3702097468147, "YES": 2376.5956459778845} | 0.027267912642777656 | will-argentina-join-nato-by-the-end | 2558.2176723693756 | Will Argentina join NATO by the end of the year? | 1735711140000 | HBFt77FEJING7HsvkAywz5Y1Fmt2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1713493600374 | Noah | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://apnews.com/article/president-milei-argentina-nato-f16s-military-bf56ef4b18646438500c921250c66e93", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://apnews.com/article/president-milei-argentina-nato-f16s-military-bf56ef4... | BINARY | {"day": -3.469446951953614e-18, "week": -3.469446951953614e-18, "month": -0.0019258594272305411} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.804197144587899, "platformFee": 6.508577180357858, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Noah1 | 1718593240175 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKJwFnQN8HIH6Jd9snKrXij62lTfW7yDni_tRTd2ku7WA=s96-c | 23 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1699627416651 | 0 | [{"name": "NATO", "slug": "nato", "groupId": "Pakn0bNotFIXDGJ4007n", "createdTime": 1713493600521}, {"name": "Argentina", "slug": "argentina", "groupId": "aMfdTX6fV9VoC7ggOI7W", "createdTime": 1713493600517}, {"name": "⚔️ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1713493600519}, {"name": ... | ["nato", "argentina", "wars", "world-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718593237111 | 1713495295019 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7PRQr97P4U0TI78sBvQu | what-will-be-true-of-the-mcmasterca | 609.8491577981531 | What will be true of the McMaster-Carr Rocket Challenge, as of the 2024-07-01 submission date? | 1719985154760 | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1713493662348 | Evan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm running the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "McMaster-Carr Rocket Challenge", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Hc0GWTnSvd0EqToMRV7MTDkP-fHQCZWw-1UGI9HQ0mI/edit?usp=sharing", "class":... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.709782361492328, "platformFee": 2.9455224189788556, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719985154760 | 3015 | EvanDaniel | 1719985154760 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNNBEv2GcorWHiElPC6VlaynzKPlKxwXytwbHWc54FNIs=s96-c | 17 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0c5843ac0a6c", "prob": 0.72, "text": "There will be a winning entry using combustion for propulsion", "index": 0, "poolNo": 619.3632425243726, "userId": "W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 235.55925646234812, "textFts": "'combust':8 'entri':6 'propuls':10 'use':7 'win':5", "contractId"... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1691250349596 | 0 | [{"name": "Rockets", "slug": "rockets", "groupId": "Z1UrYn5vMs6e3iJAifxC", "createdTime": 1713493662670}] | ["rockets"] | 0.25 | 1718291131295 | 1714364825208 | 0.5 | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.632172731189952 | qW3clyRwqraekDSiaU7i | {"NO": 237.9936859397273, "YES": 166.70590137922179} | 0.7104482701385895 | will-vibecamp-2024-have-more-attend | 780.8477479192502 | Will vibecamp (2024) have more attendees than Manifest (2024)? | 1717311540000 | np29BqZ79vNQmcm2p7PL9DGDHVD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713493723492 | Neil G | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve based on public statements from organizers on actual attendee numbers. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.094023220343582, "platformFee": 4.724036401992013, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | NeilG | 1717311106490 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK_41pWFKQN5JSQho36JsecQ6CRXu38jA1WGjBecCAwTnoy=s96-c | 19 | 0 | 3 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1704857197498 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1713493723646}, {"name": "Vibecamp", "slug": "vibecamp", "groupId": "d1e873dd-c328-4a3f-a39a-64b5da070546", "createdTime": 1713493723663}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9... | ["manifest-2024", "vibecamp", "manifest"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717311103375 | 1714883345229 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05712925079687135 | rfk417XwHd1PaDrlrqh7 | {"NO": 823.805712870269, "YES": 4941.58602184387} | 0 | will-a-passenger-aircraft-be-shot-d | 4069.205619462049 | Will a passenger aircraft be shot down in the Middle East during the current Iran - Israel conflict? | 1716091140000 | ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | NO | public | 1713493799150 | mint | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve YES if a passenger aircraft carrying two or more passengers is shot down over the Middle East during the Iran-Israeli conflict. A passenger aircraft is defined as any aircraft used for the purpose of civil aviation, and spe... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.205799923357348, "platformFee": 5.205799923357348, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716091764826 | 1000 | mint | 1716091140000 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697647723543 | 0 | [{"name": "Israel-Iran Conflict", "slug": "israeliran-conflict", "groupId": "4014ef1a-d3cc-4f73-8448-49754b5a29ca", "createdTime": 1713493799314}, {"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1713493799319}, {"name": "🐪 Middle East", "slug": "middle-east", "groupId": "xg8... | ["israeliran-conflict", "israel", "middle-east", "iran", "aviation"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716086108273 | 0.01 | ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2iVh3g8CiDcI8tujLt3K | when-will-i-first-appear-as-an-auth | 450.38175376287546 | When will I first appear as an author on an arXiv paper? | 1751353140000 | jl04UxzD1qha0YVQR0BK7NbYIlu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713493824372 | Joel Becker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At time of creating the market, the leading contender for this happening: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kFrxFZxGTosKhSq8u/forecasting-future-gains-due-to-post-training-enhancements", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.199907642756277, "platformFee": 2.442928807327163, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 210 | JoelBecker | 1720084582940 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi36bUzW_j-HKZOckPZRBt4oauadZ3wSKi4-A9C=s96-c | 2 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "715cd85c52e7", "prob": 0.010000000000000033, "text": "<= June 30th, 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.5125945381480363, "userId": "jl04UxzD1qha0YVQR0BK7NbYIlu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 248.74685927665476, "textFts": "'2024':3 '30th':2 'june':1", "contractId": "2iVh3g8CiDcI8tujLt3K", "createdTime": 171349382... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1651615828607 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1713493824688}, {"name": "📖 Academia", "slug": "-academia", "groupId": "96982729-5728-43e0-a698-6231f2f6c989", "createdTime": 1713493824692}, {"name": "Personal", "slug": "personal", "groupId": "wxAGTtNee5f2PTzjqSI2", "createdTime": 171... | ["ai", "-academia", "personal", "machine-learning"] | 0.25 | 1720084579855 | 1716143338666 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.47317312504426007 | c2z9iYH6D3hWmv5lbTOh | {"NO": 1269.5192219790385, "YES": 761.4208462378045} | 0.5995995086979409 | will-an-ai-system-be-capable-of-cre | 1422.2981022160873 | By 2040, will AI be capable of creating a working Manifold clone to a prompt? | 2209035540000 | O9BNSBOVuPhTRbFFM493Kfc3qO72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.501744675811423 | False | basic | public | 1713493955212 | MadCloud101 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Constraints", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Only human input allowed is explaining necessary opaque things like mana algorithms and such.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "It can ha... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.009848916044203015, "month": 0.049518417088450506} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 23.469146144820712, "platformFee": 18.414734984380885, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MadCloud101 | 1720023513114 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2s8WCB5PDslfyxS6iYdQsL7j-rOkiERdYSG3au=s96-c | 43 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1666533811557 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1713493955358}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1713493955380}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9l... | ["technology-default", "ai", "technical-ai-timelines"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720023509894 | 1717034593992 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5053557812088699 | TLM37oxDzuGtu2xr9puI | {"NO": 19.368259456198984, "YES": 1958.9803946245656} | 0 | will-i-managed-to-convince-my-frien | 1829.340135515677 | Will I managed to convince my friend to leave this MLM scam? | 1714966260892 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1713494534755 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Kangen Water is the company. my friend just bought one of their water ionizer machine for $4000. She started posting a lot of those recruiting videos on her facebook about working from home and archiving $100k a month a few days ago.", "type": "tex... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.942625211830432, "platformFee": 5.942625211830432, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714966260892 | 200 | AmmonLam | 1714966675528 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714966253761 | 1714966674090 | 0.01 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4196814457622883 | h3SXgf6kIGeWNrWjiK7Z | {"NO": 32.84415071190608, "YES": 2351.5084515911126} | 0 | will-psg-win-the-202324-champions-l | 2502.6606715906414 | Will PSG win the 2023/24 Champions League? | 1715116704549 | Jxzs6NHitohaNLJ1AJkmt06uRw33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1713495209020 | TP King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.106771882235897, "platformFee": 8.106771882235897, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715116704549 | 200 | tpking | 1715116704549 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697442193885 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1713495209163}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1713495209164}, {"name": "UEFA", "slug": "uefa", "groupId": "KSvOrWRB2hyHWfU4GnM9", "createdTime": 1713495209174}, ... | ["sports-default", "soccer", "uefa", "football", "uefa-champions-league"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715115032604 | 1715115285608 | 0.01 | Jxzs6NHitohaNLJ1AJkmt06uRw33 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.46628946691205164 | zOGq1UpRhS9jZhNLMMV8 | {"NO": 126.68560003305076, "YES": 206.15473762376405} | 0.34933453447210694 | will-argentina-join-nato-as-a-globa | 58 | Will Argentina join NATO as a Global Partner by the end of the year? | 1735711140000 | HBFt77FEJING7HsvkAywz5Y1Fmt2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713495224585 | Noah | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://apnews.com/article/president-milei-argentina-nato-f16s-military-bf56ef4b18646438500c921250c66e93", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://apnews.com/article/president-milei-argentina-nato-f16s-military-bf56ef4... | BINARY | {"day": 4.996003610813204e-16, "week": 4.996003610813204e-16, "month": 4.996003610813204e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8502989678489408, "platformFee": 0.8502989678489408, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | Noah1 | 1713620033285 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKJwFnQN8HIH6Jd9snKrXij62lTfW7yDni_tRTd2ku7WA=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1699627416651 | 0 | [{"name": "Argentina", "slug": "argentina", "groupId": "aMfdTX6fV9VoC7ggOI7W", "createdTime": 1713495224801}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1713495224802}, {"name": "NATO", "slug": "nato", "groupId": "Pakn0bNotFIXDGJ4007n", "createdTime": 1713495224804},... | ["argentina", "world-default", "nato", "wars"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713620030050 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.29072407846036513 | 3cjFb7tsj011TA2Dnzr4 | {"NO": 336.19212092678924, "YES": 13642.328769121843} | 0 | will-dortmund-win-the-202324-champi | 14921.061202361952 | Will Dortmund win the 2023/24 Champions League? | 1717280639408 | Jxzs6NHitohaNLJ1AJkmt06uRw33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | NO | public | 1713495418566 | TP King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.31999999999999995} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 70.03271022348802, "platformFee": 7.367690828565999, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717280639408 | 1000 | tpking | 1717280639408 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697442193885 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1713495418710}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1713495418732}, {"name": "UEFA Champions League", "slug": "uefa-champions-league", "groupId": "jgZHnM9QIVaWt6OmPhm3", ... | ["football", "soccer", "uefa-champions-league", "sports-default", "uefa"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717280626487 | 0.01 | Jxzs6NHitohaNLJ1AJkmt06uRw33 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2zMVdSiUdMABmiOZYjLi | how-would-you-consume-mana-as-a-dru | 246.91243405378515 | How would you consume Mana as a drug? | 1716094740000 | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CHOOSE_MULTIPLE | public | 1713495871005 | Matty B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to poll", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.733820186669224, "platformFee": 11.733820186669224, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718392699072 | 795 | mattyb | 1718392746486 | 0 | 14 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "52334207f2b9", "prob": 0.07462513295648687, "text": "Snort it", "index": 0, "poolNo": 24.188258744821574, "userId": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 299.94193421477416, "textFts": "'snort':1", "contractId": "2zMVdSiUdMABmiOZYjLi", "resolverId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "creat... | 6 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697395701475 | 0 | [{"name": "Drug use", "slug": "drug-use", "groupId": "2IQAYS5BO1I2Tjg1neEJ", "createdTime": 1713495871388}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1713495871389}, {"name": "Drugs", "slug": "drugs", "groupId": "6277e258-91d0-4621-8487-f98ffa56b0c5", "cr... | ["drug-use", "manifold-6748e065087e", "drugs", "nonpredictive"] | 0.25 | False | 1716076973103 | 1718392745107 | {"1ad2af6461a2": 60, "a09e85457a2a": 20, "dcd2285cff2c": 20} | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | True | prob-desc | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | YvULr3h8X5sHXzDSEV0n | {"NO": 86.0642245340818, "YES": 116.19229771878037} | 0.42552014429717067 | the-pivot-stock-da5af65e4b16 | 154.63828010915563 | "The Pivot" Stock | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713495934555 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Buy if you think the Pivot will be great. Sell if you think the Pivot will be disappointing.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This is a permanent market which trades on sentiment. The aim is to sell your st... | STONK | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.2947419478704987, "platformFee": 2.2947419478704987, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | AmmonLam | 1716338401743 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "Permanent Markets", "slug": "permanent-markets", "groupId": "2T4mM0N5az2lYcaN5G50", "createdTime": 1713495934783}, {"name": "Pivot Predictions", "slug": "pivot-predictions", "groupId": "6iOdS5vCFUBWysZiBH1F", "createdTime": 1713495934790}, {"name": "Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-ea... | ["permanent-markets", "pivot-predictions", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized", "all-stonks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1714615989870 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
nuuUtvKNewhh4EcTEC4r | by-what-day-will-iran-retaliate-aga | 10792.492331476955 | By what day will Iran retaliate against Israel? | 1714795140000 | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1713496133680 | Panfilo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Counting the approximate ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "start time", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " of the first impact of a drone, missile, special forces firefight, etc. Only direct attacks on Israeli territory or embassi... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 36.527312741158774, "platformFee": 36.527312741158774, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714815706863 | 2270 | Panfilo | 1714795140000 | 0 | 18 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "8ebbe9cbb62b", "prob": 0.01, "text": "April 19", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.858716975704049, "userId": "U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 679.0129805946989, "textFts": "'19':2 'april':1", "contractId": "nuuUtvKNewhh4EcTEC4r", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1695066009476 | 0 | [{"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "groupId": "cea99c1c-afb9-49b2-adfa-9be739adce10", "createdTime": 1713496134196}, {"name": "🌎 Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "groupId": "2wNGnksxJzypXZtiTLNL", "createdTime": 1713496134197}, {"name": "Iran", "slug": "iran", "groupId... | ["israelhamas-conflict-2023", "geopolitics", "iran", "israel", "wars"] | 0.25 | 1714538056531 | 1714537884254 | 0.01 | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9371496550365749 | OoMPldEG4y8nNBOCgH1K | {"NO": 1375.5436410298619, "YES": 207.1764861528825} | 1 | will-jimmy-carter-be-alive-at-the-e-48b40571ca36 | 2040.9551972742852 | Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on April 19? | 1713589140000 | ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.019627119693408 | True | play | YES | public | 1713497036029 | Jimmy Carter Death Markets | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Changes are coming to a Jimmy market near you. - Just a couple more things. All changes will be done by Mar 7 or so or later than that or never. Prob at some point. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.010000000000000009} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.047125296792086, "platformFee": 4.047125296792086, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713590356100 | 300 | JCDM | 1713589140000 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1703455433441 | 0 | [{"name": "Longevity", "slug": "longevity", "groupId": "b8Ygbdfv5q2sQsZQGmkl", "createdTime": 1713497036251}, {"name": "Jimmy Carter Daily", "slug": "jimmy-carter-daily", "groupId": "19215cc1-e005-4008-80ba-e4df0c64d06f", "createdTime": 1713497036249}, {"name": "Public Figures", "slug": "public-figures", "groupId": "sI... | ["longevity", "jimmy-carter-daily", "public-figures", "jimmy-carter", "entertainment"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713537618502 | 0.99 | ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.22243342949171946 | wGgk7ir71iuDMp8lqNsR | {"NO": 87.84670676939822, "YES": 2487.8440698733652} | 0 | will-iran-respond-to-israeli-air-st | 2275.5603566091213 | Will Iran respond to Israeli air strikes with an attack larger than 4/13 within the next 72 hours? | 1713792143943 | 39JynuLHvzcNh6ZvioKEGQyAsGq2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.322736348006881 | True | play | NO | public | 1713497135054 | Chad | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve to YES if Iran and/or any of their proxies launches an attack on Israeli territory that is larger than the attack that occurred on Saturday, April 13th.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.010000000000000016} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.8581433678780495, "platformFee": 3.8581433678780495, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713792143943 | 220 | ChadCotty | 1713792143943 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690394230510 | 0 | [{"name": "🐪 Middle East", "slug": "middle-east", "groupId": "xg8wCPeM9JP6gD0igBrA", "createdTime": 1713497135440}, {"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "groupId": "cea99c1c-afb9-49b2-adfa-9be739adce10", "createdTime": 1713497135442}, {"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel",... | ["middle-east", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "israel", "iran", "israeliran-conflict"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713593049456 | 0.01 | 39JynuLHvzcNh6ZvioKEGQyAsGq2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
e60ALtM1nm3EvSXM3IfR | will-litecoin-ltcusd-close-higher-o-7f88f89a62b7 | 636.8769248760057 | Will Litecoin (LTC/USD) Close Higher On the Current Day Compared To The Prior Days Close? {DAILY} | 1713916800000 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1713497836094 | SirCryptomind | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Will Litecoin (LTC/USD) Close Higher On the Current Day Compared To The Prior Days Close? {DAILY}", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Litecoin (LTC/USD)", "typ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.797049325927426, "platformFee": 4.797049325927426, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713918377404 | 1295 | SirCryptomind | 1713916800000 | 0 | 9 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "b1ab00bf87a9", "prob": 0.4, "text": "📆April 19th (Fri)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 47.905002849816114, "userId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 72.96951601875094, "textFts": "'19th':2 'april':1 'fri':3", "contractId": "e60ALtM1nm3EvSXM3IfR", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "OEbsAc... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1673375788573 | 0 | [{"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1713497836513}, {"name": "🪙 Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 1713497836510}, {"name": "Crypto Market-Daily", "slug": "crypto-marketdaily", "groupId": "7a61c99... | ["crypto-speculation", "crypto-prices", "crypto-marketdaily", "litecoin"] | 0.25 | 1713908196374 | 1713918332998 | 0.5 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | False | old | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
IOxViEfQbZ9qPogiWBZg | will-ethereum-ethusd-close-higher-o-51ea20e5c46a | 108.78115672101173 | Will Ethereum (ETH/USD) Close Higher On the Current Day Compared To The Prior Days Close? {DAILY} | 1713916800000 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1713497979000 | SirCryptomind | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Will Ethereum (ETH/USD) Close Higher On the Current Day Compared To The Prior Days Close? {DAILY}", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Ethereum (ETH/USD)", "typ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.1128991498835175, "platformFee": 1.1128991498835175, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713918412115 | 1175 | SirCryptomind | 1713916800000 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "14d8f3d099bf", "prob": 0.5, "text": "📆April 19th (Fri)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25, "userId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25, "textFts": "'19th':2 'april':1 'fri':3", "contractId": "IOxViEfQbZ9qPogiWBZg", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "create... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1673375788573 | 0 | [{"name": "🪙 Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 1713497979333}, {"name": "Crypto Market-Daily", "slug": "crypto-marketdaily", "groupId": "7a61c99b-2dfd-4502-a10b-f1cebe57810a", "createdTime": 1713497979339}, {"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "gr... | ["crypto-prices", "crypto-marketdaily", "crypto-speculation", "ethereum"] | 0.25 | 1713826515115 | 1713831864728 | 0.5 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | False | alphabetical | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
joCplyRwi5d9ycZaLpDe | would-manifold-rather-smoke-mana-or-866eaf704ecd | 956 | Would Manifold users rather do Mana or Spice as a drug? | 1715669299091 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | a4d3395b68e3 | public | 1713498064190 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolved by poll after market close", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Assume both are fictional drugs, not the real world synthetic marijuana 'spice' drug", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.236049502480562, "platformFee": 10.236049502480562, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715669299091 | 460 | strutheo | 1720053161621 | 0 | 21 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "8f09e344a304", "prob": 0.24152700072295993, "text": "Mana", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 214.66207640570315, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 674.1084368833191, "textFts": "'mana':1", "contractId": "joCplyRwi5d9ycZaLpDe", "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aS... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1713498064597}, {"name": "Spice", "slug": "spice", "groupId": "0d05736e-44e8-411b-a8ac-41a012b2d5fe", "createdTime": 1713498064610}, {"name": "Drugs", "slug": "drugs", "groupId": "6277e258-91d0-4621-8487-f98ffa56... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "spice", "drugs", "mana", "manifold-users"] | 0.25 | 1714929861937 | 1714081902573 | {"a4d3395b68e3": 100} | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8zGmKx7Vd5xerLIUQU47 | who-will-win-the-2024-fide-candidat-f005e0459b5f | 9182.950725537406 | Who will win the 2024 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | 1713766850273 | PK13zhGnApOoa4RPss0gF4hmiFO2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | bfe2a3038734 | public | 1713498297470 | turtlepurple | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 48.652057675344615, "platformFee": 48.652057675344615, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713766850273 | 785 | turtlepurple | 1713766850273 | 0 | 26 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "bfe2a3038734", "prob": 0.9975373542735829, "text": "Gukesh", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3780.7587218306194, "userId": "PK13zhGnApOoa4RPss0gF4hmiFO2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.333654794020617, "textFts": "'gukesh':1", "contractId": "8zGmKx7Vd5xerLIUQU47", "resolverId": "PK13zhGnApOoa4RPss0gF4hmiFO2", "createdT... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1699993765566 | 0 | [{"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1713498297731}, {"name": "Board Games", "slug": "board-games", "groupId": "Hu6z8BYs5Xz3ZRyai8MF", "createdTime": 1713498297735}, {"name": "Chess candidates 2024", "slug": "chess-candidates-2024", "groupId": "09ea3682-1d3f-4f69-8ce4... | ["chess", "board-games", "chess-candidates-2024"] | 0.25 | 1713765036284 | 1713604451935 | {"bfe2a3038734": 100} | PK13zhGnApOoa4RPss0gF4hmiFO2 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7696585496779442 | IWMNWj2x0f4CoTHXWMpI | {"NO": 1206.8519201654385, "YES": 918.1322014347784} | 0.8145443849646734 | -will-the-average-price-of-fresh-wh-8153e7e230d9 | 845.7362354888346 | 💲🥛 Will The Average Price Of Fresh Whole Milk (Gal.) Be Below $3.87 At The End Of June 2024? | 1720583940000 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.665098217517876 | False | basic | public | 1713499170601 | SirCryptomind | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "💲🥛 Will The Average Price Of Fresh Whole Milk (Gal.) Be Below $3.87 At The End Of June 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.008333859639227725} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.821967488106193, "platformFee": 6.167136775648151, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SirCryptomind | 1718881126250 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1673375788573 | 0 | [{"name": "Milk", "slug": "milk", "groupId": "91d5588a-7e85-4f9d-98a0-4da1c7dd15c0", "createdTime": 1713499170750}, {"name": "FRED Data", "slug": "fred-data", "groupId": "58149c9b-1d6a-41f1-b6ed-5a83f6a2c255", "createdTime": 1713499170753}, {"name": "Federal reserve", "slug": "federal-reserve", "groupId": "Dtx5Ll2hayiv... | ["milk", "fred-data", "federal-reserve", "economics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718881123187 | 1714686473836 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4822357613367525 | DxEylTBxp2a4H0kppkE6 | {"NO": 89.78511753655408, "YES": 296.485623777278} | 0.22000000000000045 | -will-the-average-price-of-a-dozen-113560f9bb6d | 207.48607676825296 | 💲🥚 Will The Average Price Of A Dozen Eggs Be Below $2.50 At The End Of June 2024? | 1718654542794 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1713499236099 | SirCryptomind | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "💲🥚 Will The Average Price Of A Dozen Eggs Be Below $2.50 At The End Of June 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resoluti... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.462837997712623, "platformFee": 2.462837997712623, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718654542794 | 160 | SirCryptomind | 1718654542794 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1673375788573 | 0 | [{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1713499236439}, {"name": "Federal reserve", "slug": "federal-reserve", "groupId": "Dtx5Ll2hayivzG8YPHbE", "createdTime": 1713499236444}, {"name": "Eggs", "slug": "eggs", "groupId": "ffc3d330-cb44-47db-b8fa-7a52101eb... | ["economics-default", "federal-reserve", "eggs", "fred-data"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716033675323 | 0.22 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.34598227339397875 | BffR6WfITZVDWPabreri | {"NO": 978.715645428592, "YES": 1014.4396449261517} | 0.3379154760668907 | capital-gains-tax-increase-before-2-767858306522 | 367.81060267920174 | 🏛💸Capital Gains Tax Increase Before 2026? | 1767229200000 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.489028092327597 | False | basic | public | 1713499328780 | SirCryptomind | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "🏛💸Capital Gains Tax Increase Before 2026?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution/Rules", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listIt... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.1120468108675965, "platformFee": 4.846197227042173, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SirCryptomind | 1716783527765 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1673375788573 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1713499329037}, {"name": "Tax", "slug": "tax", "groupId": "ifd68EW8txu6x0cNMm3A", "createdTime": 1713499329035}, {"name": "Library Of Congress", "slug": "library-of-congress", "groupId": "e9e24b60-bbeb-4cfd-9350-67d2... | ["politics-default", "tax", "library-of-congress", "capital-gains", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716783523815 | 1713645511906 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
X1YpvU1f5eEKmZzeDaI7 | diggs-bowl-texansbills-2024 | 327 | Diggs Bowl: Texans-Bills 2024 | 1738339140000 | 2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713501081854 | Josh Wilkes | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will update the closing time once we know when the game is scheduled", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.050030876088864, "platformFee": 4.050030876088864, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 675 | JoshuaWilkes | 1714357624387 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "8f88a9bfced9", "prob": 0.4770848898214761, "text": "Texans Win", "index": 0, "poolNo": 116.7152361443926, "userId": "2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 127.92725544251792, "textFts": "'texan':1 'win':2", "contractId": "X1YpvU1f5eEKmZzeDaI7", "createdTime": 1713501081855, "probChanges":... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1662006482315 | 0 | [{"name": "🏈 NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1713501082148}, {"name": "NFL Futures", "slug": "nfl-futures", "groupId": "470aae8a-05a8-4fee-8127-7e3fbd4db7c8", "createdTime": 1713501082192}, {"name": "NFLProps", "slug": "nflprops", "groupId": "dbff229c-5b32-4dcd-a1d3-85c1e34f9fb4"... | ["nfl", "nfl-futures", "nflprops"] | 0.25 | 1714357621050 | 1713751989904 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 91FRPkpSysvbXEZe1Cnu | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-manifold-fees-match-the-public | 0 | Will Manifold fees match the publicly announced formula before July 2024? | 1713501661087 | P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.726376370574009 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1713501173128 | Martin Modrák | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In \"Announcement - A sustainable mana economy\" [1] the team said that the formula for fees will initially be:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fees = (shares) ", "type": "text"}, {"text": " "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713501661087 | 100 | MartinModrak | 1713501697489 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1672234503136 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1713501173483}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1713501173487}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-bus... | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-business-future"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713501695470 | 0.5 | P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21432308544858275 | LMqnPWOJ9UsLreSjNZu2 | {"NO": 819.2867089779975, "YES": 1758.6572099064717} | 0.11275210317218384 | will-there-be-at-least-1000-israeli | 816.2148682588133 | Will there be at least 1000 Israeli civilian deaths in war this year? | 1735804740000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.772153671636579 | False | basic | public | 1713502234421 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently there have been almost none, but things are escalating fast with Iran.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.04945455170918106} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.709195062655202, "platformFee": 2.918658800483296, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IsaacKing | 1718519012297 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1646352460573 | 0 | [{"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1713502234754}, {"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "groupId": "cea99c1c-afb9-49b2-adfa-9be739adce10", "createdTime": 1713502234756}, {"name": "Arab-Israeli Conflict", "slug": "arabis... | ["israel", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "arabisraeli-conflict"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718519009246 | 1715414811796 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7813905103671711 | KHO0AES1Xzv6QfDENEDP | {"NO": 2752.643706175208, "YES": 99.38341800090404} | 1 | will-challengers-2024-receive-a-cin | 3773.257424328956 | Will "Challengers" (2024) receive a CinemaScore of B+ or above? | 1714255822022 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.284828445007784 | True | play | YES | public | 1713502371574 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve YES if ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"Challengers\" (2024)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Challengers_(film)", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:d... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.34971063508489775} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.150559555228481, "platformFee": 13.150559555228481, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714255822022 | 300 | Ziddletwix | 1714255872248 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1713502371936}, {"name": "🎥 Movies", "slug": "movies", "groupId": "KSeNIu7AWgiBBM5FqVuB", "createdTime": 1713502371937}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lg... | ["culture-default", "movies", "entertainment", "television-film", "boxoffice"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714255817845 | 1714255870806 | 0.99 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2730485569295964 | xsE60Bpbg2KE7g2H3P7t | {"NO": 948.3077015865566, "YES": 1089.6233921845192} | 0.24636046495679598 | will-sergey-brin-ever-orbit-or-walk | 371.59494010884004 | Will Sergey Brin ever orbit or walk on the Moon? | 2556161940000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.598535565306154 | False | basic | public | 1713503796973 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "XGmQf9p3f5VuaYBTCTSr", "label": "/strutheo/will-jeff-bezos-ever-fly-around-or"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "t... | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.0032463199187607594} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.2009587461288005, "platformFee": 3.7603145285162514, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1718934219446 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Billionaires", "slug": "billionaires", "groupId": "d7b8968a-3418-44f3-baa7-95980653688b", "createdTime": 1713503797859}, {"name": "🔭 Space exploration", "slug": "space-exploration", "groupId": "7EN6VxtLzX459WLUsjQv", "createdTime": 1713503797857}, {"name": "Commercial spaceflight", "slug": "commercial-space... | ["billionaires", "space-exploration", "commercial-spaceflight", "space", "celebrities"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718934216359 | 1713577680779 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
K7s2iCRUnkzStZWmq2ZF | what-will-be-the-nickname-for-the-r | 3047.159992822476 | What will be the nickname for the relocated Salt Lake City NHL team? | 1718399144370 | KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | a44754bd2a9a | public | 1713504644135 | LukeW | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The NHL team relocating from Arizona will need to be called something for their first season. It will likely be of the form Utah [nickname] or Salt Lake City [nickname] (probably the former). What will be that nickname?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 32.65677967597946, "platformFee": 14.453756786022446, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718399144370 | 1100 | LukeW | 1718399144370 | 0 | 19 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "5528e2b49c8d", "prob": 0.0009548282415906244, "text": "Coyotes", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.0139142317719916, "userId": "KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2107.176141161921, "textFts": "'coyot':1", "contractId": "K7s2iCRUnkzStZWmq2ZF", "resolverId": "KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2", "creat... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1645827259651 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1713504644554}, {"name": "Utah", "slug": "utah", "groupId": "tX2mEOxgt92yVUmfKPwx", "createdTime": 1713504644641}, {"name": "NHL 🏒", "slug": "nhl", "groupId": "lccgApXa1l7O5ZH3XfhH", "createdTime": 1713504644643}, {"nam... | ["sports-default", "utah", "nhl", "hockey", "salt-lake-city"] | 0.25 | 1718325865863 | 1718399125968 | {"a44754bd2a9a": 100} | KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2 | True | prob-desc | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.22723585468366084 | eVezXbBcZGSKGv1WyP1x | {"NO": 912.9259866599738, "YES": 1199.9264217713235} | 0.18282167603133573 | will-sergey-brin-ever-walk-on-the-m | 443.13335463662645 | Will Sergey Brin ever walk on the Moon? | 2871781140000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.63970936824423 | False | basic | public | 1713504651806 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "nJLfSPZOG1O8bR7gOTZZ", "label": "/strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-walk-on-the-moo"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "... | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.017178323968665338} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.8525770201810845, "platformFee": 3.53171535460941, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1719066720229 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Billionaires", "slug": "billionaires", "groupId": "d7b8968a-3418-44f3-baa7-95980653688b", "createdTime": 1713504652322}, {"name": "🧑🎤 Celebrities", "slug": "celebrities", "groupId": "4QIcUOfCSSha0JZHAg9X", "createdTime": 1713504652320}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZS... | ["billionaires", "celebrities", "space", "moon", "space-exploration"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719066717163 | 1713574695115 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999991 | e4TIuRf4eph3menuxkXc | {"NO": 994.9874371066194, "YES": 10.050378152592089} | 0.99 | testing-6dc0801c09fc | 900.7088836250385 | Testing | 1713505464525 | tSxqbw1VcBalBRPsG95cWA6K3E63 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.8667300331758865 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1713505415828 | Tiger Zhang | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve N/A.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.49} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.8607232592095597, "platformFee": 2.8607232592095597, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713505464525 | 100 | cyclic | 1713505464525 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL8xf_E8aV05mBfSHhBHeKVv4aGlvBjG_7txbjOF5KiuA=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701130976027 | True | 0 | [{"name": "testing", "slug": "testing", "groupId": "Lokp5JWIA0BDlEPePSfS", "createdTime": 1713505416091}] | ["testing"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713505438669 | 0.99 | tSxqbw1VcBalBRPsG95cWA6K3E63 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3AEzvG2pzcC5rYX8vU8L | which-change-will-happen-first-in-t | 0 | Which change will happen first in the methods states use choose electors for the Electoral College? | 1713505741355 | xNZQawSuOdWPwqnVlFwQbIMT2x42 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1713505423092 | themightysalmon | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713505741355 | 150 | themightysalmon | 1713505741355 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "2dd451b609b0", "prob": 0.16666666666666666, "text": "Nebraska and/or Maine switches from proportional to winner-take-all", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15, "userId": "xNZQawSuOdWPwqnVlFwQbIMT2x42", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 75, "textFts": "'and/or':2 'main':3 'nebraska':1 'proport':6 'switch':4 'take':10 'winner':... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1707978226998 | True | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1713505423530}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1713505423528}, {"name": "Electoral College", "slug": "electoral-college", "groupId": "EgzriJ7oOJv... | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "electoral-college"] | 0.25 | 1713505699571 | xNZQawSuOdWPwqnVlFwQbIMT2x42 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
UxtJr4CyzBgOFndtgYsb | which-of-the-following-bets-will-ch | 0 | Which of the following bets will ChatGPT (GPT-4 version) agree to take? | 1714114740000 | n820DjHGX9dKsrv0jHIJV8xmDgr2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1000000 | False | play | public | 1713505429181 | ZZZ ZZZ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will ask it:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Would you take the following bet:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"[bet text]\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type":... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | ZZZZZZ | 1713505523926 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ANYONE | [] | 10 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1672521437204 | 0 | [{"name": "ChatGPT", "slug": "chatgpt", "groupId": "lG71NUBORXAsxGmQZo77", "createdTime": 1713505429878}] | ["chatgpt"] | 0.25 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
sb0HUenzre3fd9eA5iWc | which-change-will-happen-first-in-t-860c7330fd52 | 108.83677674602626 | Which change will happen first in the methods states use choose electors for the Electoral College? | 2534569140000 | xNZQawSuOdWPwqnVlFwQbIMT2x42 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713505792133 | themightysalmon | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.1922395416800344, "platformFee": 2.0469819184255904, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 270 | themightysalmon | 1719705751086 | 0 | 5 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0d8e55ac7047", "prob": 0.16981430548335635, "text": "Nebraska and/or Maine switches from proportional to winner-take-all", "index": 0, "poolNo": 27.388619271376903, "userId": "xNZQawSuOdWPwqnVlFwQbIMT2x42", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 133.89708156176806, "textFts": "'and/or':2 'main':3 'nebraska':1 'proport':... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1707978226998 | 0 | [{"name": "Electoral College", "slug": "electoral-college", "groupId": "EgzriJ7oOJvX7aO4LKI3", "createdTime": 1713505792345}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1713505792351}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZ... | ["electoral-college", "us-politics", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 1719705747793 | True | 0 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.