CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

0.6370209507643487

DNY1phiYUCK6PffyMLCC

{"NO": 354.3253636706748, "YES": 135.68042636863223}

0.8208873145498512

will-another-nba-player-be-banned-f

289.5731811472954

Will another NBA player be banned for sports betting before 2030?

1893477540000

P7rLJmOcMDZGzqOSdPR1AdeH2Lg1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1713371885565

houstonEuler

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On April 17, 2024, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the NBA announced", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/NBAPR/status/1780631109635551633/photo/1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decorat...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.430220562280822, "platformFee": 1.430220562280822, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

200

houstonEuler

1714619537736

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7b-0ce121292ad7

7

0

0.3333333333333333

1695777809174

0

[{"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b3ll9Ch9rdbcrTRAbjUf", "createdTime": 1713371885822}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime": 1713371885824}]

["sports-betting", "nba"]

0.25

0.5

1714619533985

0

0.5069116677393836

4tkzTOhrRFmMPf52VdTj

{"NO": 150.67764955231104, "YES": 130.22441446853765}

1

is-ap-chemistry-harder-than-ap-phys

11

Is AP Chemistry harder than AP Physics 1?

1714017540000

TD724XHym5WNWaRCYhf3ZOq5o702

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1713372543456

Omar Hamid

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.1611752238444977, "platformFee": 0.1611752238444977, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715366292082

140

OmarHamid

1714017540000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJvcaK4Uqni1MLlpLck89hsQXD1UKF5Hjov9ChUzO0hS9a-nQ=s96-c

2

0

4

0.3333333333333333

1713317657817

0

[{"name": "Education", "slug": "education", "groupId": "4db0060d-c187-4c1e-9d89-da6482968105", "createdTime": 1713372543611}]

["education"]

0.25

0.5

1713389003389

0.54

TD724XHym5WNWaRCYhf3ZOq5o702

0

9WT3RXvPFlRmmXR9lJIl

what-day-will-the-first-llama3-mode

6914.960129905348

What day will the first Llama3 model be released?

1713686846575

JNkmw38JICdw6ySJ9RgWK7WyBdE2

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

244149eb422c

public

1713372662109

Sylvie

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 10.721929560267188, "platformFee": 10.721929560267188, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713686846575

290

sylv

1713686846575

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyoOZtkrJBItDvRE0HvcRDn8txM-_v033jFIifZ=s96-c

6

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "1ffbf76acd09", "prob": 0.00012642229384659008, "text": "April 17", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.42411974335573177, "userId": "JNkmw38JICdw6ySJ9RgWK7WyBdE2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3354.3618950586633, "textFts": "'17':2 'april':1", "contractId": "9WT3RXvPFlRmmXR9lJIl", "resolverId": "JNkmw38JICdw6ySJ9RgWK7WyBd...

0.3333333333333333

1645008108574

0

[{"name": "LLama 3", "slug": "llama-3", "groupId": "a4563e75-0768-4783-ac78-c45e4a46e287", "createdTime": 1713372662527}]

["llama-3"]

0.25

1713686837401

{"244149eb422c": 100}

JNkmw38JICdw6ySJ9RgWK7WyBdE2

True

0

J5bkohZoAyff7XPTCxMa

who-will-win-the-womens-super-leagu

4341.711172588183

Who will win the Women's Super League match tonight? (19:00 BST)

1713383748951

gohyqRRJ0jXzrXUJHGpdvLhxBOk1

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

0d5f275c6589

public

1713372761105

ARCHIT

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 2.5951387513391984, "platformFee": 2.5951387513391984, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713383748951

140

tihcra

1720053161621

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJgmTEpR46dSS1_pXuMytxA3p95UD546qsjXzOCtWUwvIIWkMGv=s96-c

5

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "0d5f275c6589", "prob": 0.9989475981755589, "text": "Chelsea", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1971.65755375064, "userId": "gohyqRRJ0jXzrXUJHGpdvLhxBOk1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.0771620158353863, "textFts": "'chelsea':1", "contractId": "J5bkohZoAyff7XPTCxMa", "resolverId": "gohyqRRJ0jXzrXUJHGp...

0.3333333333333333

1713270985110

0

[{"name": "🇬🇧 UK", "slug": "uk", "groupId": "m9vlFjXUHNgGgU9OLK1Y", "createdTime": 1713372761289}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1713372761291}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1713372761292}, {"...

["uk", "football", "soccer", "sports-default"]

0.25

1713383646749

{"0d5f275c6589": 100}

gohyqRRJ0jXzrXUJHGpdvLhxBOk1

True

0

zngRXfW4imI7aqFcXinv

how-many-more-minutes-will-ulysses

719.9999999999999

How many more minutes will Ulysses spend trying to put together more hat tiles on the table today?

1713499140000

nBSfoOQYOebFxDuLfDMVIg6FTRr2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1713373344367

Cameron

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

NUMBER

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

empathy2000

1713373560379

0

https://firebasestorage.…b70-a935fcf00182

1

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "439b08e99edf", "prob": 0.49798753231186077, "text": "5-10", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.417593817930241, "userId": "nBSfoOQYOebFxDuLfDMVIg6FTRr2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8.48562819417987, "textFts": "'-10':2 '5':1", "contractId": "zngRXfW4imI7aqFcXinv", "createdTime": 1713373344368, "probChanges": {"day": 0,...

12

0.3333333333333333

1678048362898

0

0.25

1713373556415

1713373423812

True

0

0.5100084974719044

3S398YfmYMytZu4nHPnc

{"NO": 142.9050328885237, "YES": 137.05645208159024}

0.5204452789965733

-monopoly-money

292.82633872239063

₩ Monopoly Money

1735685940000

xfEEQukcbHUehvkAWBNeiTIUtFl2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1713374569606

Tarr

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a permanent market which trades on sentiment. The aim is to sell your stock when you believe your side has over-corrected and buy in/short it again once it's over-corrected to the other side. Essentially, it's meant to function like a tradi...

BINARY

{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.135417553449229, "platformFee": 3.135417553449229, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

140

Tarr

1714489383635

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK1VfZdzqRGvrqp-l9cdyCcHJtCLRKF1C3rBA8mkINqfe79YUMb=s96-c

9

0

0.3333333333333333

1712752598137

0

[{"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1713374570622}, {"name": "Permanent Markets", "slug": "permanent-markets", "groupId": "2T4mM0N5az2lYcaN5G50", "createdTime": 1713374570618}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-7...

["finance", "permanent-markets", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"]

0.25

0.5

False

1714489380391

1714196874662

0

SgXs4232VHVXS0m4rnhs

what-will-be-true-about-the-country

2608.2929966777665

What will be true about the country rankings at IMO 2024?

1725137940000

wPlHpLKQxYOnSRvmJdBajYykmdJ2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1713375679771

Invisible Drone

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the Rank column of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.imo-official.org/year_country_r.aspx?year=2024", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.imo-official.org/year_country_r.aspx?year=...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 32.468601488153816, "platformFee": 13.181175525137924, "liquidityFee": 0}

23.64038670177082

1400

InvisibleDrone

1720230598092

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL9rL9kcmjU7N738Sbsa_eCm47GsKae7rv46u4VpwGjLmSo=s96-c

33

1

ANYONE

[{"id": "ecb1c95c9369", "prob": 0.9116453236026164, "text": "China = 1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 283.34254360083156, "userId": "wPlHpLKQxYOnSRvmJdBajYykmdJ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 27.460941334653935, "textFts": "'1':2 'china':1", "contractId": "SgXs4232VHVXS0m4rnhs", "createdTime": 1713375679771, "probChanges": {...

0.3333333333333333

1713261933601

0

[{"name": "Competition Math", "slug": "competition-math", "groupId": "64e0006d-606d-4e68-ad95-045c341bb9d1", "createdTime": 1713375680053}, {"name": "IMO", "slug": "imo", "groupId": "131e7893-2872-4a6c-bbec-dc702b40b5cd", "createdTime": 1713375680056}, {"name": "🧮 Math", "slug": "mathematics", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd...

["competition-math", "imo", "mathematics"]

0.25

1720230594977

1713465561520

False

0

0.5

ZWIzzSQ5LaQBYulZh5QK

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

1

is-ap-us-history-harder-than-ap-wor

0

Is AP US History harder than AP World History?

1714017540000

TD724XHym5WNWaRCYhf3ZOq5o702

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1713375731629

Omar Hamid

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716510578844

100

OmarHamid

1714017540000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJvcaK4Uqni1MLlpLck89hsQXD1UKF5Hjov9ChUzO0hS9a-nQ=s96-c

0

6

0.3333333333333333

1713317657817

0

[{"name": "Education", "slug": "education", "groupId": "4db0060d-c187-4c1e-9d89-da6482968105", "createdTime": 1713375731780}]

["education"]

0.25

0.5

TD724XHym5WNWaRCYhf3ZOq5o702

0

0.13685813433063707

j5BEsl9vz6OLiLCcGHZ4

{"NO": 906.0675579582568, "YES": 1363.1558037781142}

0.09534273226497653

will-an-israeli-fighter-jet-get-sho

1224.011077740511

Will an Israeli fighter jet get shot down over another country in 2024?

1735707540000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

9.99348734617627

False

basic

public

1713376431938

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": -1.942890293094024e-16, "week": -1.942890293094024e-16, "month": -1.942890293094024e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.790155358094074, "platformFee": 9.790155358094074, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

strutheo

1714155740858

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

20

0

0.3333333333333333

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "Iran", "slug": "iran", "groupId": "E1hI0LQPWmoAcpvhcjHa", "createdTime": 1713376438942}, {"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1713376441746}, {"name": "🐪 Middle East", "slug": "middle-east", "groupId": "xg8wCPeM9JP6gD0igBrA", "createdTime": 171337644651...

["iran", "israel", "middle-east", "wars", "geopolitics"]

0.25

0.5

1714155691602

1713378318201

0

0.6739322430329753

3iCZSKiiIJ4HcqcHfxII

{"NO": 446.31015480438884, "YES": 159.89633433591817}

0.8522694596298844

protests-occur-in-iran-calling-for

215

Protests occur in Iran calling for regime change result in 2 or more deaths of protesters.

1735707540000

91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1713377034323

Bruce

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 5.551115123125783e-16, "week": 5.551115123125783e-16, "month": 5.551115123125783e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.9234917386877106, "platformFee": 1.7663534569234653, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

235

Bruce54df

1716466382234

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJohJG8pV6APMRLAdPO5Up_LhSInhyxI1tRfhbmvspk=s96-c

4

0

0.3333333333333333

1697633597735

0

[{"name": "Arab-Israeli Conflict", "slug": "arabisraeli-conflict", "groupId": "aheUmZtjkKBkeiXwIFhI", "createdTime": 1713377034470}, {"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "groupId": "cea99c1c-afb9-49b2-adfa-9be739adce10", "createdTime": 1713377034479}, {"name": "Israel-Iran Con...

["arabisraeli-conflict", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "israeliran-conflict"]

0.25

0.5

1716466378765

0

XdRusgqXecEsGtJdPjx2

which-of-the-following-milestones-w

774.341113201156

Which of the following milestones will the first crewed Boeing Starliner launch achieve?

1717282740000

0VON2byWgyS10VCUa9X3HX4s1t32

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1713378453083

Gordan Knott

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 3.619189950548604, "platformFee": 3.619189950548604, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

360

GordanKnott

1717857124486

0

https://firebasestorage.…14a-c87addf6031a

8

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "ff81a5dca510", "prob": 0.96, "text": "Clear the tower", "index": 0, "poolNo": 191.87523902242143, "userId": "0VON2byWgyS10VCUa9X3HX4s1t32", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8.34993032931737, "textFts": "'clear':1 'tower':3", "contractId": "XdRusgqXecEsGtJdPjx2", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "0VON2byWgyS10VCU...

3

0.3333333333333333

1698871173640

0

[{"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1713378453365}, {"name": "Rockets", "slug": "rockets", "groupId": "Z1UrYn5vMs6e3iJAifxC", "createdTime": 1713378453408}, {"name": "Starliner", "slug": "starliner", "groupId": "c91828a9-66c9-4343-82ee-afdd6aae6f29", "createdTime": 1...

["space", "rockets", "starliner"]

0.25

1715962852111

1715426160292

False

0

zvqKnTy8pSOVnIfTVIec

what-levels-of-atmospheric-co2-will

1239.771825602582

What levels of atmospheric co2 will we reach by the end of 2025?

1740902340000

6zyJD9kOtvcc6XR91cTDpxvvHCB2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1713378572535

Jes Wolfe

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "based on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/graph.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/graph.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decorati...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 7.530002647088556, "platformFee": 7.530002647088556, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

610

JesWolfe

1716214834470

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcKjht6P3AYXOa2d0KfFkhQ_Fa_Nya7nn9oWrRw1Noi0Fky=s96-c

8

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "496b90693242", "prob": 0.95, "text": "426 ppm", "index": 0, "poolNo": 222.3094891288441, "userId": "6zyJD9kOtvcc6XR91cTDpxvvHCB2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10.95862136187597, "textFts": "'426':1 'ppm':2", "contractId": "zvqKnTy8pSOVnIfTVIec", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "6zyJD9kOtvcc6XR91cTDpxvvHCB2...

0.3333333333333333

1692227943766

0

[{"name": "CO2", "slug": "co2", "groupId": "60ded756-1b97-43d2-9c32-96eeb42efaea", "createdTime": 1713378572803}, {"name": "🪸 Climate", "slug": "climate", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw", "createdTime": 1713378572798}]

["co2", "climate"]

0.25

1716214830981

False

0

0.23539190999373216

n5chi2gMRCs7j9JWyU8F

{"NO": 975.5046258453226, "YES": 963.0289480088026}

0.2377164279354312

will-an-adult-movie-be-made-and-rel

1738.9004258613363

Will an adult movie be made in space and released by mid 2034?

2035339140000

kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2

cpmm-1

0

9.63543562534451

False

basic

public

1713378718735

Ernie

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "it doesn't have to be commercial", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "it must be a real movie...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.012020465429124272}

0

{"creatorFee": 22.11239971235164, "platformFee": 21.296143086019562, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Ernie

1719339580437

0

https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466

42

1

0.3333333333333333

1668384110640

0

[{"name": "Sexuality", "slug": "sexuality", "groupId": "6259ed37-ac92-42c8-b659-74cbb2c763df", "createdTime": 1713378718904}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1713467390782}, {"name": "🔭 Space exploration", "slug": "space-exploration", "groupId": "7EN6VxtLzX459WLU...

["sexuality", "space", "space-exploration"]

0.25

0.5

1719339577218

1713793652267

0

jGckZWsPaV5JUZwPJSP3

what-caused-the-change-in-the-creat

1807.8789583316602

What caused the change in the creators leaderboard?

1713931144066

srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

CHOOSE_MULTIPLE

public

1713378909337

Bayesian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to closest. Since this is a shortfuse market, it may resolve N/A if too ambiguous. Please don't add an option that's a subcategory of some other option unless said other option is so vague it ought to resolve N/A. also add specific enough ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 10.503757437274059, "platformFee": 10.503757437274059, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714213347074

440

Bayesian

1713931144066

0

https://firebasestorage.…a41-dbd2866cd47c

7

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "c00fbc5f2f53", "prob": 0.023309511949235546, "text": "changed how it accounted for alts", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.324842091882656, "userId": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 265.01683617479097, "textFts": "'account':4 'alt':6 'chang':1", "contractId": "jGckZWsPaV5JUZwPJSP3", "resolv...

1

0.3333333333333333

1656040913178

0

0.25

1713930640137

1713931128117

{"16c4b3cb75b1": 15, "744e785941d0": 60, "b64c2731c22e": 10, "eea29b74a8f8": 15}

srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2

True

0

0.5693771791771799

W586zkUDQ8jxXAtTPW9N

{"NO": 267.3680685591835, "YES": 56.05327870670583}

1

will-the-winner-of-the-2024-lpga-ch

154

Will the winner of the 2024 LPGA Chevron Championship be one of Henderson, Kim, J. Ko, L. Ko, Korda, or Thitikul?

1713757083499

KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2

cpmm-1

0

9.51526939256885

True

play

YES

public

1713378932923

LukeW

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the winner of the 2024 Chevron Championship (LPGA) is one of:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Brooke M. Henderson, Sei Young Kim, Jin Young Ko, Lydia Ko, Nelly Korda, Atthaya Thitikul...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.1368581434925964}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.4329270006493458, "platformFee": 1.4329270006493458, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713757083499

120

LukeW

1713757083499

0

https://firebasestorage.…90a-defe115a34f8

1

0

0.3333333333333333

1645827259651

0

[{"name": "LPGA", "slug": "lpga", "groupId": "b7520556-a7de-4448-8494-219ab1963263", "createdTime": 1713378933158}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1713378933163}, {"name": "Golf", "slug": "golf", "groupId": "NxkKZhLxyZglOcGxX6zn", "createdTime": 171337...

["lpga", "sports-default", "golf"]

0.25

0.5

1713753056245

1713465037343

0.86

KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2

0

pZNOcbVwyx8xHuMvbMyH

what-is-the-best-science-class

5

What is the best science class?

1714017540000

TD724XHym5WNWaRCYhf3ZOq5o702

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

ab61c7e919a6

public

1713378989965

Omar Hamid

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.13895347611226458, "platformFee": 0.13895347611226458, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716510595489

160

OmarHamid

1714017540000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJvcaK4Uqni1MLlpLck89hsQXD1UKF5Hjov9ChUzO0hS9a-nQ=s96-c

2

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "d96cc5562230", "prob": 0.2668019984096069, "text": "Biology", "index": 0, "poolNo": 21.32744886350864, "userId": "TD724XHym5WNWaRCYhf3ZOq5o702", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 58.60991663840093, "textFts": "'biolog':1", "contractId": "pZNOcbVwyx8xHuMvbMyH", "resolverId": "TD724XHym5WNWaRCYhf3ZOq5o702", "createdT...

6

0.3333333333333333

1713317657817

0

[{"name": "Education", "slug": "education", "groupId": "4db0060d-c187-4c1e-9d89-da6482968105", "createdTime": 1713378990243}]

["education"]

0.25

1713883978811

{"ab61c7e919a6": 100}

TD724XHym5WNWaRCYhf3ZOq5o702

True

0

0.5479418995598775

juVeSwUu3UnvC1kNSjnW

{"NO": 607.530270527894, "YES": 1629.8283480388545}

0.311209802254166

will-elon-announce-hes-bringing-bac

3058.813248650287

Will Elon announce before 2025 that he's bringing back Vine?

1735718340000

JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2

cpmm-1

0

9.546444049981222

False

basic

public

1713379792499

Joshua

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1780666831310877100"}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any announcement before end of year from Elon or X that they are going to use the Vine branding for any kind of short-form video content, either on the X ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.016830050854297396, "month": -0.1931245568960483}

0

{"creatorFee": 57.4889730441993, "platformFee": 33.96460123236307, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1090

Joshua

1720020270478

0

https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f

76

1

0.3333333333333333

1645516283433

0

[{"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1713379792643}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1713379792646}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcps...

["twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "technology-default", "social-media"]

0.25

0.5

1720020267230

1713380885563

0

gCCiszTIxuD7EIYbejiK

recommend-me-podcasts-about-the-fut

0

Recommend me podcasts about the future

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

none

0

1000000

False

public

1713379947879

David Glidden

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I’m interested in adding a podcast or two to my regular rotation focused on the future. The idea is to listen to conversations about technologies, ideas, etc that will be mainstream 3-5+ years from now. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, ...

BOUNTIED_QUESTION

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

dglid

1713856912605

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

0

["fS4Xlmum", "zmgMOHp5", "Yw43USVI"]

0.3333333333333333

1643941084707

0

[{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1713379948061}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1713379948055}, {"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3Ntb...

["entertainment", "culture-default", "futurism", "podcasts"]

0.25

1713856911361

100

0

ouBulEiq1eJIfKEJTL7o

manual-order-book-with-interest-and

0

Manual order book with interest and no fees!

Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2

none

0

1000000

False

public

1713380206061

nikki

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a manual order book with no fees. Write your bet here with the linked market, then add the amount to the bounty. The other party must confirm the bet and pay the given amount. I will keep track of all bets, and pay out interest at a rate of...

BOUNTIED_QUESTION

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

nikki

1714066732691

0

https://firebasestorage.…497-f98cb9862793

0

["QWYdnm4csdEyHolsRMIa", "v8CIwOhhtI3ue3l0qzSQ", "6J3CMG2fWBPD3W1Imyhu", "aBz4gB3nci6GqudXObmu", "eaDctH6mELDtvzfRcwLG", "ef7rASbx"]

0.3333333333333333

1678327601414

0

[{"name": "Tumbles Financial Complex", "slug": "tumbles-financial-complex", "groupId": "b27bef1c-d542-4184-b538-738e2367b356", "createdTime": 1713380206222}]

["tumbles-financial-complex"]

0.25

1714066731868

506

0

2GEDIMlp9fgQAZwrXNU9

who-would-be-better-at-solving-an-e

0

Who would be better at solving an escape room?

1730872740000

eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2

none

0

1000000

False

public

1713380647991

Plasma Ballin'

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Inspired by a Polling USA poll that ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "label": "Joshua"}}, {"text": " posted on Discord.", "type": "text"}]}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

PlasmaBallin

1713448845812

0

https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5

40

0

0.3333333333333333

1668786016313

0

[{"name": "Recreation", "slug": "recreation", "groupId": "c7bcbbea-b527-4e01-9803-fd48ba3d69b5", "createdTime": 1713380648151}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1713380648169}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-t...

["recreation", "2024-us-presidential-election", "donald-trump", "us-politics", "the-life-of-biden"]

0.25

1713448844798

0

NVMaeoGwXgW29oiTEm1T

who-would-be-better-at-giving-cpr

0

Who would be better at giving CPR?

1730872740000

eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2

none

0

1000000

False

public

1713380682536

Plasma Ballin'

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Inspired by a Polling USA poll that ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "label": "Joshua"}}, {"text": " posted on Discord.", "type": "text"}]}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

PlasmaBallin

1713386123391

0

https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5

65

0

0.3333333333333333

1668786016313

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1713380682731}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1713380682735}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of...

["2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics", "the-life-of-biden", "donald-trump", "medicine"]

0.25

1713386122235

0

0.7251907916065402

eH8LKHDebRmuueedqrl3

{"NO": 1116.972493260691, "YES": 939.2848040072624}

0.7583429489968169

will-the-machine-intelligence-resea-d4ab8f3eff71

541.3219112822885

Will the Machine Intelligence Research Institute exist in 2030?

1924991940000

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

cpmm-1

0

9.601038310763656

False

basic

public

1713380738737

Tetra

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.024024654258881672}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.894607166517359, "platformFee": 4.15155890515541, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Tetraspace

1718632862413

0

https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f

14

0

0.3333333333333333

1642130392212

0

[{"name": "Machine Intelligence Research Institute", "slug": "machine-intelligence-research-insti", "groupId": "ac808a3a-62c0-4d2e-b9fb-f8ab9c31af4c", "createdTime": 1713380738917}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1713380738945}, {"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "...

["machine-intelligence-research-insti", "ai", "effective-altruism"]

0.25

0.5

1718632859324

1713566148588

0

o43IF8TMjP55wHG0fap6

who-would-be-better-at-building-ike

0

Who would be better at building IKEA furniture?

1730872740000

eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2

none

0

1000000

False

public

1713380749104

Plasma Ballin'

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Inspired by a Polling USA poll that ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "label": "Joshua"}}, {"text": " posted on Discord.", "type": "text"}]}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

PlasmaBallin

1713380749537

0

https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5

38

0

0.3333333333333333

1668786016313

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1713380749259}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1713380749258}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "g...

["us-politics", "donald-trump", "2024-us-presidential-election", "the-life-of-biden", "furniturestore"]

0.25

0

oJ5HGRbx7v9njByjzvdT

who-would-be-better-at-a-hot-dog-ea

0

Who would be better at a hot dog eating contest?

1730872740000

eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2

none

0

1000000

False

public

1713380792637

Plasma Ballin'

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Inspired by a Polling USA poll that ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "label": "Joshua"}}, {"text": " posted on Discord.", "type": "text"}]}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

PlasmaBallin

1715218046207

0

https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5

74

0

0.3333333333333333

1668786016313

0

[{"name": "🍝 Food", "slug": "food", "groupId": "F6DkK24HpilV3Et7xJv7", "createdTime": 1713380792810}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1713380792809}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": ...

["food", "us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "the-life-of-biden", "donald-trump"]

0.25

1715218044955

0

0.4047061484779441

WN2rXnkAumLcDdO1You7

{"NO": 232.59326801685438, "YES": 15654.55550500282}

0

will-elon-announce-hes-bringing-bac-450caf2b5aa1

21528.022803022282

Will Elon announce before June that he's bringing back Vine?

1717248122355

JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2

cpmm-1

0

9.945857384173301

True

basic

NO

public

1713380854096

Joshua

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1780666831310877100"}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any announcement before June 1st from Elon or X that they are going to use the Vine branding for any kind of short-form video content, either on the X app...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 119.64447096415937, "platformFee": 90.753368326306, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717248122355

1320

Joshua

1717248122355

0

https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f

122

0

0.3333333333333333

1645516283433

0

[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1713380854272}, {"name": "Social Media", "slug": "social-media", "groupId": "YzNv56EFKyx9DHwGYtIU", "createdTime": 1713380854283}, {"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", ...

["technology-default", "social-media", "twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.25

0.5

1717248114700

1716465816208

0.01

JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2

0

0.5187933007494759

SZFA5d9erMu8j5xePd6j

{"NO": 183.9088354471669, "YES": 107.39285578351917}

0.6486601977293659

will-the-global-priorities-institut

55

Will the Global Priorities Institute still exist in 2030 ?

1893538740000

WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1713381365320

Mich

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Global Priorities Institute", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary...

BINARY

{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.8222906571464685, "platformFee": 0.8222906571464685, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

140

Mich

1713508783292

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c

2

0

0.3333333333333333

1702591853953

0

[{"name": "📖 Academia", "slug": "-academia", "groupId": "96982729-5728-43e0-a698-6231f2f6c989", "createdTime": 1713381365517}, {"name": "Long-term Markets", "slug": "longterm-markets", "groupId": "a972d1b7-f585-4e40-af47-ed32ebc23e2c", "createdTime": 1713381365523}, {"name": "🇬🇧 UK", "slug": "uk", "groupId": "m9vlFj...

["-academia", "longterm-markets", "uk", "futurism", "effective-altruism"]

0.25

0.5

1713508780052

1713381470319

0

0.547737370843084

WESzHYOvcwFrbtguazOo

{"NO": 914.9367831383616, "YES": 1042.556950662417}

0.5152343494057486

will-oil-stay-below-100-until-the-e

370.13060868943177

Will oil stay below 100$ until the end of 2024

1735027140000

M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2

cpmm-1

0

9.714794422591885

False

basic

public

1713381529493

Łukasz Bartoszcze

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.868416177133381, "platformFee": 5.868416177133381, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

ukaszBartoszcze

1719782304758

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJAzqOEpDemVFZnDaZ_a1yJBvJ9cAKEBP_qg6nYoNRIBSU=s96-c

18

0

0.3333333333333333

1708276167391

0

[{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1713381529649}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1713381529650}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOc...

["economics-default", "politics-default", "technology-default", "oil", "stocks"]

0.25

0.5

1714600238113

1719782303444

0

deIPGyN5nIpZXpRfgRRM

which-jockey-will-have-the-most-win-2613b44dcd28

100

Which jockey will have the most wins at Keeneland on April 18th?

1713474960000

JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

MKT

public

1713381828759

Stuart Slagle

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Results verified with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Equibase.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://Equibase.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.5356527482955034, "platformFee": 1.5356527482955034, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713477184710

360

ovals

1713477204673

0

https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "72d8be77d1ac", "prob": 0.48, "text": "Irad Ortiz, Jr.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 37.978940944514136, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 40.88020033186001, "textFts": "'irad':1 'jr':3 'ortiz':2", "contractId": "deIPGyN5nIpZXpRfgRRM", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsa...

0.3333333333333333

1697477345360

0

[{"name": "Keeneland", "slug": "keeneland", "groupId": "d18116ec-df21-45d8-86da-7512d1900f75", "createdTime": 1713381829004}, {"name": "Jockey", "slug": "jockey", "groupId": "383cbd3e-b514-4419-ba36-e121d65d7b2f", "createdTime": 1713381829023}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFy...

["keeneland", "jockey", "sports-default", "horse-racing"]

0.25

1713470904605

1713477204025

0.34

JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1

False

0

0.2985658755407445

8nE9VnLehwdNbe70Pl17

{"NO": 978.2234146666729, "YES": 1015.4555204460733}

0.29080225664096876

will-there-be-a-third-party-us-pres

428.4201095190382

Will there be a third party US president before 2050.

2524690740000

QMF5wTqvWefYwLScsyDnxl4ORdq1

cpmm-1

0

9.578170483056718

False

basic

public

1713382165241

Gaston Kessler

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if a US President is elected before 01/01/2050 and isn't part of the Democratic party or the Grand Old Party at the beginning of his mandate.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "week": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "month": 1.6653345369377348e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.617896164498037, "platformFee": 4.617896164498037, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

GastonKessler

1714136875731

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJLS-aCC3U5ebLUDvs8zzjKoHIGvM8SGDPz6U2ea5X1=s96-c

12

0

0.3333333333333333

1702761965647

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1713382165482}, {"name": "Robert F. Kennedy Jr.", "slug": "robert-f-kennedy-jr", "groupId": "lzuhs9uc93209ES3QX5S", "createdTime": 1713382165489}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "...

["2024-us-presidential-election", "robert-f-kennedy-jr", "politics-default", "elections", "us-politics"]

0.25

0.5

1714136872304

0

kjeWtQXbwBFNJ7VRNRAH

will-i-be-productive-each-day-my-tr

893.1650145719426

Will I be productive each day? (personal credence = ~20%, track record = 4.5/15, please bet against me to motivate me)

1715407366411

a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

MKT

public

1713382365320

The All Memeing Eye ♠️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each day resolves YES if afterwards I subjectively have >50% credence that I was productively working on the tasks I logically know I should have been for >50% of waking hours, resolves NO if not, resolves 50% if unsure/borderline.", "type": "text"...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 12.393134569304253, "platformFee": 12.393134569304253, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715407366411

1340

TheAllMemeingEye

1715407366411

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c

12

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "e8636dd375da", "prob": 0.34, "text": "Thu 18 Apr 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 80.57497262537215, "userId": "a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 157.84686207691317, "textFts": "'18':2 '2024':4 'apr':3 'thu':1", "contractId": "kjeWtQXbwBFNJ7VRNRAH", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "a4Y1...

0.3333333333333333

1704035290346

0

[{"name": "Personal", "slug": "personal", "groupId": "wxAGTtNee5f2PTzjqSI2", "createdTime": 1713382365538}, {"name": "Productivity", "slug": "productivity", "groupId": "CYo34JHKR2lk9ifMH279", "createdTime": 1713382365553}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbahk6EJpQP9aKuZiX", "createdT...

["personal", "productivity", "manifold-users", "personal-goals", "daily-markets"]

0.25

1714457847791

1714427366327

0.37

a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2

False

old

0

u0rUhVTxFJ5TccR9hRxj

how-will-miri-allocate-funding-betw

301.23683227462607

How will MIRI allocate funding between its program areas in 2025?

1830297540000

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1713382405172

Tetra

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the ratios given in MIRI's Form 990 filing for 2025. N/A if MIRI does not exist in 2025.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.4553746863787795, "platformFee": 4.332701408157137, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

220

Tetraspace

1718640643700

0

https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f

7

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "b047b8d2d604", "prob": 0.4006002434138895, "text": "Research", "index": 0, "poolNo": 74.75723896502197, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 111.85582529061998, "textFts": "'research':1", "contractId": "u0rUhVTxFJ5TccR9hRxj", "createdTime": 1713382405172, "probChanges": {"day"...

0.3333333333333333

1642130392212

0

[{"name": "Machine Intelligence Research Institute", "slug": "machine-intelligence-research-insti", "groupId": "ac808a3a-62c0-4d2e-b9fb-f8ab9c31af4c", "createdTime": 1713382405392}, {"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1713382405399}]

["machine-intelligence-research-insti", "effective-altruism"]

0.25

1718640640582

True

0

0.7228058398245621

q7D7Ld08UQdkfJubCEkI

{"NO": 1237.12804044708, "YES": 32.937681111147526}

1

will-vfl-wolfsburg-beat-vfl-bochum

1115.0713661943141

Will VfL Wolfsburg beat Vfl Bochum during regular time on Sat, Apr 20, 2024?⚽ Bundesliga 🇩🇪

1713630600000

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-1

0

4.971642548727873

True

play

YES

public

1713382703933

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ VfL Wolfsburg vs Vfl Bochum", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Saturday, April 20, 2024", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.010107156218814639}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.25072966450175, "platformFee": 3.25072966450175, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713635662256

140

FranklinBaldo

1713630600000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

3

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1659579722296

0

[{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1713382704090}, {"name": "Bundesliga", "slug": "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "groupId": "7c53ccd3-1a40-41ca-bd88-dedac17a91a9", "createdTime": 1713382704109}]

["soccer", "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2"]

0.25

0.5

1713626872999

0.99

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

0

0.04759052009473856

ixKokCfEBeEcnJx7Jk0E

{"NO": 908.8509293739196, "YES": 1602.9116426683038}

0.027551572559630155

will-an-asteroidcommet-hit-the-eart

1644.9873953904098

Will an asteroid/comet hit the earth causing more than $1,000,000USD in damage this year?

1735718340000

UBaBb0j8oUfmKLd9NJJdZMTZwL82

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1713382902320

Gensing Genis

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": -4.163336342344337e-17, "week": -4.163336342344337e-17, "month": -4.163336342344337e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.6545680545898134, "platformFee": 3.6545680545898134, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

GensingGenis

1713881155526

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FGensingGenis%2FkyZO4H0aJ7.23%20PM?alt=media&token=763c2b7b-070a-452d-8b77-d0e5725cc6b0

15

0

0.3333333333333333

1696833943680

0

[{"name": "Natural Disasters", "slug": "natural-disasters", "groupId": "7DheCrWGY6V4tkvFa7y9", "createdTime": 1713382902653}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1713382902654}, {"name": "🔭 Space exploration", "slug": "space-exploration", "groupId": "7EN6VxtLzX459WLU...

["natural-disasters", "space", "space-exploration", "science-default", "technology-default"]

0.25

0.5

1713881152281

0

0.3310295590953109

tOClyCcybgGazPj4vkRK

{"NO": 98.65563239929287, "YES": 478.45206398851184}

0

will-average-fees-on-manifold-bets

342.73907131946737

Will average fees on Manifold bets till end of May 2024 exceed 4%?

1717181940000

lUGDbuJVTpPyYsXTYXpd4139sE43

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1713384068717

Ender Ting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.09258666804818137}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.6604747270206337, "platformFee": 2.03827120371802, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717771634007

180

AnT

1717771950988

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcWkbPJnNa7oUkYFwveuKh1CoCbDrksUco-QNBP=s96-c

10

0

2

0.3333333333333333

1686508617605

0

[{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1713384069503}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1713384069501}]

["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-6748e065087e"]

0.25

0.5

1717180981670

1717771949732

0.09

lUGDbuJVTpPyYsXTYXpd4139sE43

0

0.5872389694496795

c7Fr5978O2RGoWpldnkB

{"NO": 11.865083729838602, "YES": 1671.1759676848162}

0

will-the-formula-for-fees-be-change

1623.1674398311657

Will the formula for fees be changed before July?

1719806340000

srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1713384415375

Bayesian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently, the formula is:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fees = (shares) * prob * (1 - prob) * 0.07", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If it gets changed in any...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.1114270509489206, "month": -0.6600690320430528}

0

{"creatorFee": 13.687160930337274, "platformFee": 1.9223679220844283, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719807355995

220

Bayesian

1719806340000

0

https://firebasestorage.…a41-dbd2866cd47c

12

4

0.3333333333333333

1656040913178

0

[{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1713384415542}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1713384415551}, {"name": "Fees", "slug": "fees", "groupId": "13efb6ee-e936...

["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-6748e065087e", "fees"]

0.25

0.5

1719797911868

1719807134968

0.01

4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2

0

X0iRFqvHTyH4RcPiGAkW

before-which-launch-will-the-faa-gr

637.6743336620235

Which will be the first Starship launch authorised under a multi-launch license? #FAA

1719074454978

AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

ee1e1dfef8c7

public

1713384769780

Nat

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " Resolves to the upcoming flight once the FAA publishes a license that authorises SpaceX to perform multiple full stack launches of Starship.", "type...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 5.747791046152837, "platformFee": 0.42808879024830593, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719074454978

165

Nat

1719074454978

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c

14

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "ee1e1dfef8c7", "prob": 0.9414710107015585, "text": "Flight 4", "index": 0, "poolNo": 125.33373596351117, "userId": "AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7.791697043837498, "textFts": "'4':2 'flight':1", "contractId": "X0iRFqvHTyH4RcPiGAkW", "resolverId": "AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2", "...

0.3333333333333333

1702671407106

0

[{"name": "Starship Launch Party", "slug": "starship-launch-party", "groupId": "c0364479-2615-4be2-8e3d-74f5d2ab0383", "createdTime": 1713384770123}, {"name": "Rockets", "slug": "rockets", "groupId": "Z1UrYn5vMs6e3iJAifxC", "createdTime": 1713384770127}, {"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNI...

["starship-launch-party", "rockets", "spacex", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.25

1718930456328

1718845528282

{"ee1e1dfef8c7": 100}

AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2

True

0

0.6886116079497662

lzs8f7cax0qMj9enKMYQ

{"NO": 3744.2370796881683, "YES": 192.8601952887907}

1

will-israel-conduct-a-retaliatory-s-9c55952968d9

4871.393818878844

Will Israel conduct a retaliatory strike on Iranian military or nuclear facilities before the 1st of June?

1713531606653

U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2

cpmm-1

0

1.3099995544583662

True

play

YES

public

1713384795132

Panfilo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Intelligence communities are split on whether Israel will carry out any form of strike against Iran. The facilities in question are likely to be non-civilian targets, and would, if executed, target Iran's nuclear weapons program and/or other aspect...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.07111467231561863}

0

{"creatorFee": 16.93243417365533, "platformFee": 16.93243417365533, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713531606653

540

Panfilo

1713531640858

0

https://firebasestorage.…30c-2f62a625fa0b

19

0

0.3333333333333333

1695066009476

0

[{"name": "⚔️ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1713384795281}, {"name": "Iran", "slug": "iran", "groupId": "E1hI0LQPWmoAcpvhcjHa", "createdTime": 1713384795305}, {"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1713384795339}, {"name": "...

["wars", "iran", "israel", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "nuclear"]

0.25

0.5

1713531598391

1713531640189

0.98

U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2

0

bccECCPkrYCGhz0e7G64

dont-click-this-poll

0

Dont click this poll

1713509940000

xbV23EDNN9NcAALIbdGp73W0o833

none

0

1

True

public

1713384839896

Ren Spam

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "nothing", "type": "text"}]}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713509941135

RenSpam

1713384840125

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIYHLXZtf0dDzzEXvGBtFO1AmD7uoBqMPxFWAluTuVYiF1Y4EE=s96-c

8

0

0.3333333333333333

1712715154346

0

[{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1713384840125}]

["soccer"]

0.25

["3553c64bf861"]

0

cT0jkNR5Hdt82dnWXbsl

how-many-seats-will-the-democrats-c

1431.0623820856179

How many Senate Seats will the Democrats Control after the 2024 election?

1731733140000

WSC5NWEmAEXhUdSXeOoJYvzCkGO2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1713386381588

Hillary Clinton

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will be resolved once 3 major news networks have projected who wins each senate network.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Members who caucus with the Democratic party will be counted even ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 8.17527361079412, "platformFee": 7.524553722389195, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

HillaryClinton

1718858032484

0

https://firebasestorage.…d4f-ddf881047e95

14

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "cefddaf8ee53", "prob": 0.20000000000000118, "text": "46 or fewer", "index": 0, "poolNo": 40.771429138749426, "userId": "WSC5NWEmAEXhUdSXeOoJYvzCkGO2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 163.0857165549965, "textFts": "'46':1 'fewer':3", "contractId": "cT0jkNR5Hdt82dnWXbsl", "createdTime": 1713386381589, "probChanges"...

0.3333333333333333

1713377673183

0

[{"name": "2024 US Election", "slug": "2024-us-election", "groupId": "ys6IcrjWOTkhcjR3JLFk", "createdTime": 1713386381819}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1713386381817}, {"name": "US Congressional Elections 2024", "slug": "us-congressional-election...

["2024-us-election", "us-politics", "us-congressional-elections-2024", "democratic-party", "magaland"]

0.25

1718858029310

1715113264060

False

0

0.7542483707086256

2DvyoWF4ppHhrbEr7vRK

{"NO": 3948.3296700890523, "YES": 122.4041627634439}

1

will-manifold-let-us-know-the-full

3876.582388196053

Will Manifold let us know the full details of "the pivot" by next week? (As suggested by James Grugett) - 29th April

1713862735342

rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2

cpmm-1

0

9.11750135755512

True

play

YES

public

1713386622194

Simon Grayson

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Great Manifold Pivot is coming.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Earlier this month, various people at Manifold told us that a major pivot is coming to Manifold's business model. As part of...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.10837097139096552}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.130569923475253, "platformFee": 9.130569923475253, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713862735342

340

SimonGrayson

1713862735342

0

https://firebasestorage.…846-fd0042ad0696

13

0

0.3333333333333333

1680512856506

0

[{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1713386622372}, {"name": "Pivot Predictions", "slug": "pivot-predictions", "groupId": "6iOdS5vCFUBWysZiBH1F", "createdTime": 1713386622380}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e",...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "pivot-predictions", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-business-future"]

0.25

0.5

1713827493037

1713862726653

0.99

rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2

0

0.635090174299288

4MoiPGdzTODzgmokBwS1

{"NO": 348.6317391432385, "YES": 183.3436889226362}

0.7679497625666863

will-the-google-trend-border-reach

211.33616196598152

Will the google trend "Border" reach a new peak before the 2024 election?

1731733140000

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1713386872153

Semiotic Rivalry

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FzkHHivR11Q.png?alt=media&token=2d70033f-38ec-4147-adce-232132f5ceb0", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.025683426829742895}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.766542405889193, "platformFee": 2.262167745491917, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

240

SemioticRivalry

1717798016315

0

https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf

9

0

0.3333333333333333

1669063432873

0

[{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1713386872465}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1713386872466}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-polit...

["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics", "united-states"]

0.25

0.5

1717798013152

0

0.8310608660577177

Z7yXRNXeymWZQ86cF9xf

{"NO": 1612.772908691714, "YES": 82.61481453873309}

1

will-1899-hoffenheim-beat-borussia

1641.958651538051

Will 1899 Hoffenheim beat Borussia Monchengladbach during regular time on Sat, Apr 20, 2024?⚽ Bundesliga 🇩🇪

1713630600000

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-1

0

4.563106789448197

True

play

YES

public

1713387204928

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Monchengladbach", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Saturday, April 20, 2024", "type": "tex...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.010305834265369573}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.471114694813732, "platformFee": 7.471114694813732, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713635614851

220

FranklinBaldo

1713630600000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

7

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1659579722296

0

[{"name": "Bundesliga", "slug": "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "groupId": "7c53ccd3-1a40-41ca-bd88-dedac17a91a9", "createdTime": 1713387205079}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1713387205100}]

["bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "soccer"]

0.25

0.5

1713626910713

0.99

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

0

NVh3jvZVoJ2P4BBpvgwB

both-max-ie-hbo-peacock-accounted-f

31120.92969627734

Both Max (i.e. HBO) & Peacock accounted for 1.3% of TV streaming in March. Which will have higher viewership in April?

1715716600537

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

76cb53ea3d3f

public

1713387392638

Ziddletwix

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The source I am using is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nielsen", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ". ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Here is their March 2024 report:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href":...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 19.07545066470869, "platformFee": 19.07545066470869, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715716600537

280

Ziddletwix

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96

43

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "275ad9d28c3d", "prob": 0.004550688380709437, "text": "Max", "color": "#673ab7", "index": 0, "poolNo": 13.926367008345096, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3046.3506379783207, "textFts": "'max':1", "contractId": "NVh3jvZVoJ2P4BBpvgwB", "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeG...

0.3333333333333333

1680369520541

0

[{"name": "🎥 Movies", "slug": "movies", "groupId": "KSeNIu7AWgiBBM5FqVuB", "createdTime": 1713387392854}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1713387392858}, {"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId": "8isZHbaQMsoFz30XuZTo", "createdTime"...

["movies", "entertainment", "tv", "business", "culture-default"]

0.25

1715716588311

1715716735921

{"76cb53ea3d3f": 100}

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

True

0

0.4731350343827382

mpon8D4ZkibJ4IIOy1w2

{"NO": 163.01335683393305, "YES": 193.8545887248716}

0.43024793795271327

will-any-of-donald-trumps-pendingon

23

Will any of Donald Trump’s pending/ongoing trials end in a hung jury?

1713390192049

U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2

cpmm-1

0

1.761029960429024

True

play

CANCEL

public

1713387616030

Panfilo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "One instance of a hung jury resolves the market Yes immediately. Or, when Trump is no longer facing any trials by jury, this resolves No. The close date may be extended until that time.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.06975206204728673}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.3682285641638417, "platformFee": 0.3682285641638417, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713390192049

220

Panfilo

1713390219532

0

https://firebasestorage.…30c-2f62a625fa0b

3

0

0.3333333333333333

1695066009476

0

[{"name": "Trial of the Century", "slug": "trial-of-the-century", "groupId": "usp0cQDi8y1YG1CCmpfn", "createdTime": 1713387616214}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1713387616197}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44...

["trial-of-the-century", "donald-trump", "law-order", "2024-us-presidential-election", "magaland", "unsubsidized"]

0.25

0.5

False

1713388633331

1713390217654

0.43

U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2

0

0.24093692636720757

qfmFq2ibcXQqn5DO9a76

{"NO": 948.2141228037369, "YES": 1105.249088243218}

0.21403119043172933

will-there-be-a-2024-october-surpri

231.19167473523746

Will there be a 2024 October Surprise caused by Iran?

1730519940000

2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2

cpmm-1

0

9.629932069007289

False

basic

public

1713387835241

Gabrielle

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There’s a long history of “October Surprises” in US presidential politics, where there is major news in the October before the election that has the potential to affect the result. Political commentators have suggested that Iran might be involved i...

BINARY

{"day": -3.0531133177191805e-16, "week": -3.0531133177191805e-16, "month": -3.0531133177191805e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.519168539879161, "platformFee": 2.519168539879161, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Gabrielle

1716146149968

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c

12

0

0.3333333333333333

1641356493109

0

[{"name": "Iran", "slug": "iran", "groupId": "E1hI0LQPWmoAcpvhcjHa", "createdTime": 1713387835390}, {"name": "🐪 Middle East", "slug": "middle-east", "groupId": "xg8wCPeM9JP6gD0igBrA", "createdTime": 1713387835424}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1...

["iran", "middle-east", "politics-default", "the-life-of-biden", "2024-us-presidential-election"]

0.25

0.5

1716146146031

0

QgGv3lZVPShDkMiwHcn4

when-will-we-have-a-third-party-us

1881.0477490101791

When will we have a third party US president?

2808622740000

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1713387992002

Ammon Lam

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 10.49368792822996, "platformFee": 9.38408631984551, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1205

AmmonLam

1719705690666

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c

20

1

DISABLED

[{"id": "02acdb2df052", "prob": 0.01724452966296839, "text": "before the end of 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.597567517507501, "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 489.9702499608822, "textFts": "'2024':5 'end':3", "contractId": "QgGv3lZVPShDkMiwHcn4", "createdTime": 1713387992002, "pr...

0.3333333333333333

1668192587343

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1713387992220}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1713387992215}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-defa...

["us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default"]

0.25

1719705687397

1713737955040

False

0

0.46927675122017015

5fyadhfmcteNlWoTAlJt

{"NO": 26.736010563646232, "YES": 2340.414203574862}

0

will-netflix-account-for-80-of-tv-s

2336.1521419822498

Will Netflix account for >8.0% of TV streaming in April? (8.1% in March, 7.8% in February)

1715716120934

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1713388021729

Ziddletwix

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The source I am using is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nielsen", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ". ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "pa...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.43634904825394, "platformFee": 8.43634904825394, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715716120934

220

Ziddletwix

1715716253870

0

https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96

10

0

0.3333333333333333

1680369520541

0

[{"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId": "8isZHbaQMsoFz30XuZTo", "createdTime": 1713388021937}, {"name": "🎥 Movies", "slug": "movies", "groupId": "KSeNIu7AWgiBBM5FqVuB", "createdTime": 1713388021938}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime"...

["tv", "movies", "entertainment", "culture-default", "business"]

0.25

0.5

1715713339765

1715716252555

0.01

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

0

0.43570007389612414

QDIFCO0Ok7uprQDkAYQa

{"NO": 86.91672605122481, "YES": 247.58202494004067}

0

will-canadas-aprils-housing-starts

207.04717768152108

Will Canada's April's housing starts exceed 250,000 (seasonally adjusted annualized rate)?

1716101940000

0wf1BQ6TTyfokIkCZDOBVZEQcU43

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1713388565922

Valjean

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Last 4 months' SAAR are ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "HERE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/hmip-pimh/#Profile/1/1/Canada", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-prima...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.2797401927533087, "platformFee": 2.2797401927533087, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716154709879

140

Valjean

1716101940000

0

https://firebasestorage.…7b2-1a461e186248

10

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1684714557567

0

[{"name": "Canada", "slug": "canada", "groupId": "SkT5CgJLsfHhVpK8V2C6", "createdTime": 1713388566066}, {"name": "Housing markets", "slug": "housing-markets", "groupId": "irDrBDORHpMwKezzJrJZ", "createdTime": 1713388566082}]

["canada", "housing-markets"]

0.25

0.5

1716101491422

0.21

0wf1BQ6TTyfokIkCZDOBVZEQcU43

0

0.49468748008981084

18vC3tempjHirWGxXt1U

{"NO": 138.21053535797847, "YES": 141.79375795873338}

0.48829055853308284

will-a-changeorg-petition-regarding

35

Will a Change.org petition regarding the contents of a German state's 2024 Abitur exam receive more than 10k supporters?

1735685940000

eRvSRM9NHDdbqdP2O2vsNXRzvko2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1713388627045

blume

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to YES iff, before the end of this year, a petition on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Change.org", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://Change.org", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline ho...

BINARY

{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.586454651514799, "platformFee": 0.586454651514799, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

140

blume

1713429819439

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKyeEyGBh17tK4ixCIsIpTxNe_MuXy0fkefDL3n76Jd102d=s96-c

3

0

0.3333333333333333

1704378498500

0

[{"name": "Germany", "slug": "germany", "groupId": "0egO7eYCaC5HnLwGN8tR", "createdTime": 1713388627303}]

["germany"]

0.25

0.5

1713429816011

0

kgYh4fKTtt0yRxsaMBsS

if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-c2aa4f9e11c4

0

If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Robert E Lee?

1714224690538

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

none

0

1

True

public

1713389255730

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX", "label": "/strutheo/who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714224720770

strutheo

1714224691917

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

45

0

0.3333333333333333

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1713389255882}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1713389255896}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "g...

["us-politics", "donald-trump", "2024-us-presidential-election", "polls", "future-us-presidents"]

0.25

1713735070881

["64d9f58d7547"]

0

5Jhs9vefzVcrsyKfqw3i

if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-9d1ed9bd33b3

0

If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Kyle Rittenhouse?

1713563725400

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

none

0

1

True

public

1713389270920

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX", "label": "/strutheo/who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713563760428

strutheo

1713563725652

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

37

0

0.3333333333333333

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "Future US Presidents", "slug": "future-us-presidents", "groupId": "AaVOlWucYC9VeWQN6zYG", "createdTime": 1713389271226}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1713389271223}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "dona...

["future-us-presidents", "2024-us-presidential-election", "donald-trump", "us-politics", "polls"]

0.25

["5713633664a1"]

0

lNL3uP882jrSWsVx5pjD

if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-ec2c641745c9

0

If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Negan Smith?

1715641870263

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

none

0

1000000

True

public

1713389287071

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX", "label": "/strutheo/who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715641920492

strutheo

1715641873331

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

22

0

0.3333333333333333

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1713389287325}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1713389287392}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 17133...

["polls", "donald-trump", "us-politics", "future-us-presidents", "2024-us-presidential-election"]

0.25

1713649683391

["b2e2fe3c59b3"]

0

0.5280438821501808

SsxiHM7AxAvlP8KEc0y7

{"NO": 191.52501030373395, "YES": 104.22818666966813}

0.6727675680917642

will-nyt-game-strands-be-fully-rele

53

Will NYT game Strands be fully released by the end of June?

1713883931495

OlOQ4o8W0bcbY2CJiw3IS9QcRZ53

cpmm-1

0

8.433967473963964

True

play

CANCEL

public

1713389742413

FinalDestination

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the game is fully released at market close.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if the game is discontinued or remains in beta at market close.", "type": "text"}]}, {"t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.7374948481330674, "platformFee": 0.7374948481330674, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713883931495

140

FinalDestination

1713892014100

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLbcwJryU_7ebr4G2XN7Qn9ZdwxgpkJQeidLCiE90ak=s96-c

2

0

0.3333333333333333

1705517282671

0

[{"name": "puzzles", "slug": "puzzles", "groupId": "Bunp21gX1V9JRgzPNDhp", "createdTime": 1713389742580}, {"name": "New York Times", "slug": "new-york-times", "groupId": "FGyXSOvtjHx946lm5EYl", "createdTime": 1713389742582}, {"name": "🌐 Internet", "slug": "internet", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1...

["puzzles", "new-york-times", "internet"]

0.25

0.5

1713451366275

1713892013480

0.67

OlOQ4o8W0bcbY2CJiw3IS9QcRZ53

0

CSFGJ5KMVfCjAdWJ6QwZ

who-will-become-a-cyborg

765.5376981066994

Who will become a cyborg? 🤖🧠 (Add answers!)

2840245140000

0OXZrWKVi3Si3HbEb59CCU2anUi1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1713390090355

Bruno Joyal 🍅

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FcxYfgMwUWQ.jpg?alt=media&token=ac6c8e6c-ab95-49b3-a805-e5e2e56d423b", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "par...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 8.111789055956281, "platformFee": 7.67141703136589, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

BrunoJ

1716752138409

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTteYBxZSAOQI4rRpDCyiUNObDhTNJGeFDpW2VnHY5rWn5Eo=s96-c

17

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "08470f43ce3d", "prob": 0.6214461723021741, "text": "Elon Musk", "index": 0, "poolNo": 270.9416583374348, "userId": "0OXZrWKVi3Si3HbEb59CCU2anUi1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 165.04406402001368, "textFts": "'elon':1 'musk':2", "contractId": "CSFGJ5KMVfCjAdWJ6QwZ", "createdTime": 1713390090355, "probChanges": ...

0.3333333333333333

https://firebasestorage.…308-8664ee59cd3e

1691110993054

0

[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1713390090668}, {"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1713390090724}, {"name": "Brain–computer interface", "slug": "braincomputer-interface", "groupId": "QuOLd...

["technology-default", "futurism", "braincomputer-interface", "science-default"]

0.25

1716752134784

1713393070502

False

0

0.6393474468539716

yAKZ3z0KgeaWbp3HhVFI

{"NO": 7.627968325865332, "YES": 1387.9934587739483}

0

champions-league-semi-finals-will-p

3405.100256431986

Champions League semi finals - will PSG qualify over Borussia Dortmund?

1715116867266

rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1713390426728

Simon Grayson

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are 4 teams remaining in the 2023/4 Champions League. The next stage is the semi finals.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each tie will be played over two legs, with the first leg being p...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 21.223176672527817, "platformFee": 21.223176672527817, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715116867266

220

SimonGrayson

1715116867266

0

https://firebasestorage.…846-fd0042ad0696

44

0

0.3333333333333333

1680512856506

0

[{"name": "UEFA Champions League", "slug": "uefa-champions-league", "groupId": "jgZHnM9QIVaWt6OmPhm3", "createdTime": 1713390426897}, {"name": "UEFA", "slug": "uefa", "groupId": "KSvOrWRB2hyHWfU4GnM9", "createdTime": 1713390426895}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "creat...

["uefa-champions-league", "uefa", "football"]

0.25

0.5

1715115754692

1715116856474

0.01

rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2

0

0.39889964265441175

c4cx5pr4BSqke5Z44DRC

{"NO": 57.47052063987135, "YES": 4099.663945569331}

0

champions-league-semi-finals-will-b

6328.81458267444

Champions League semi finals - will Bayern Munich qualify over Real Madrid?

1715209140000

rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1713390532721

Simon Grayson

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are 4 teams remaining in the 2023/4 Champions League. The next stage is the semi finals.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each tie will be played over two legs, with the first leg being p...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 42.498413133422815, "platformFee": 42.498413133422815, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715210698401

320

SimonGrayson

1715209140000

0

https://firebasestorage.…846-fd0042ad0696

44

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1680512856506

0

[{"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1713390532876}, {"name": "UEFA", "slug": "uefa", "groupId": "KSvOrWRB2hyHWfU4GnM9", "createdTime": 1713390532881}, {"name": "UEFA Champions League", "slug": "uefa-champions-league", "groupId": "jgZHnM9QIVaWt6OmPhm3", "creat...

["football", "uefa", "uefa-champions-league"]

0.25

0.5

1715202182503

1715210694197

0.01

rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2

0

dfFyYPvIoz0qn5I6FH4N

champions-league-semi-finals-which

4971.339761672079

Champions League Semi Finals - which team will have the biggest winning margin?

1715209140000

rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

c100125c77bd

public

1713390566811

Simon Grayson

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are 4 teams remaining in the 2023/4 Champions League. The next stage is the semi finals.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each tie will be played over two legs, with the first leg being p...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 13.802712976581356, "platformFee": 13.802712976581356, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715210762178

380

SimonGrayson

1715209140000

0

https://firebasestorage.…846-fd0042ad0696

31

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "89008123e976", "prob": 0.00048622244933901567, "text": "Bayern Munich", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.227688991240484, "userId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2523.7256382552464, "textFts": "'bayern':1 'munich':2", "contractId": "dfFyYPvIoz0qn5I6FH4N", "resolverId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHK...

1

0.3333333333333333

1680512856506

0

[{"name": "UEFA Champions League", "slug": "uefa-champions-league", "groupId": "jgZHnM9QIVaWt6OmPhm3", "createdTime": 1713390567035}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1713390567037}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaF...

["uefa-champions-league", "football", "sports-default", "soccer"]

0.25

1715202284547

1715210755560

{"c100125c77bd": 100}

rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2

True

prob-desc

0

0.09795928657129263

ja0cRkT4AkYs50HLOXxF

{"NO": 902.0825686419336, "YES": 1497.2253666874942}

0.06141204568301436

will-there-be-a-successful-global-s

1856.0158804338753

Will there be a successful global socialist revolution by 2042?

2114377140000

Op0aDfnsPZYnHqxrINUT2UKA8W32

cpmm-1

0

10.278754550830254

False

basic

public

1713390629749

Maximilian Wolf

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"successful global socialist revolution by 2042\" means:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "workers took control over the means of production in key ...

BINARY

{"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": 1.3877787807814457e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.536218281606537, "platformFee": 8.536218281606537, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

MaximilianWolf

1718980936447

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfnBThNCeLLdYGn_LpVJPRW-9ZbeFaL_FQSPU9UNv4r=s96-c

14

0

0.3333333333333333

1694030458980

0

[{"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1713390629930}, {"name": "🌎 Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "groupId": "2wNGnksxJzypXZtiTLNL", "createdTime": 1713390629939}, {"name": "Communism", "slug": "communism", "groupId": "de415ac0-ca6c-43c3-8000-0ccc230e9c09", "c...

["futurism", "geopolitics", "communism", "world-default", "leftism"]

0.25

0.5

1713976330905

1718631302922

0

0.28954216958034756

1HnZ0E5ZDn4cdDlArCEX

{"NO": 176.41820349563335, "YES": 286.53719619132187}

0.2005885990169277

will-there-be-fullyimersive-virtual

486.1342033261461

Will there be fully-imersive virtual worlds similar to* Sword Art Online by 2042?

2114377140000

Op0aDfnsPZYnHqxrINUT2UKA8W32

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1713391808542

Maximilian Wolf

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*Similar to means:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "a non- or minimally-invasive technology to connect to the virtual world exists (minimally invasi...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.493097723780991, "platformFee": 3.493097723780991, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

220

MaximilianWolf

1717001977751

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfnBThNCeLLdYGn_LpVJPRW-9ZbeFaL_FQSPU9UNv4r=s96-c

8

0

0.3333333333333333

1694030458980

0

[{"name": "Video Games", "slug": "video-games", "groupId": "9FaZmHrfS8IcDJyu6pUD", "createdTime": 1713391808917}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1713391808914}, {"name": "Virtual Reality", "slug": "virtual-reality", "groupId": "tHkKwsHjd8vhks1C...

["video-games", "technology-default", "virtual-reality", "ai", "metaverse"]

0.25

0.5

1713851389284

1717001976281

0

juDi7Hwk09V54tMv2Z7m

lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-66

1

[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 66)

1713477540000

v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

MKT

public

1713392213107

komplexkonjugat

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let's play Civ6!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Anyone can add instructions. Instructions can be composite, but are executed atomically (either fully or not at all). Upon mark...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.01659812313522691, "platformFee": 0.01659812313522691, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713568712320

125

komplexkonjugat

1713569360456

0

https://firebasestorage.…51b-bd51663a85a0

1

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "6694e3a14446", "prob": 0.52, "text": "Execute all instructions in @MattCWilson's comment on this answer. ", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25.966803753729547, "userId": "rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 24.06919257092752, "textFts": "'answer':10 'comment':7 'execut':1 'instruct':3 'mattcwilso...

1

0.3333333333333333

1698548141721

0

[{"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1713392213766}, {"name": "ManifoldPlaysCiv6", "slug": "manifoldplaysciv6", "groupId": "5fb3f729-faaa-425d-9c1b-c04c78abe1b4", "createdTime": 1713392213768}]

["gaming", "manifoldplaysciv6"]

0.25

1713397596485

1713569359525

0.52

v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2

False

0

0.5350312184146007

3lkuBEqYZKf6OdulMG4K

{"NO": 204.41755744804897, "YES": 160.14095579813863}

0.5949495973825452

will-there-be-a-game-in-comparable

67.79200677792284

Will there be a game in comparable quality to SAO by 2042? (not fully immersive)

2113858740000

Op0aDfnsPZYnHqxrINUT2UKA8W32

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1713392430113

Maximilian Wolf

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"comparable quality to SAO, not fully immersive\" means:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "this questions focus is on the game-world aspect, not ful...

BINARY

{"day": -2.220446049250313e-16, "week": -2.220446049250313e-16, "month": -2.220446049250313e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.0823109528136323, "platformFee": 1.0823109528136323, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

180

MaximilianWolf

1713715104549

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfnBThNCeLLdYGn_LpVJPRW-9ZbeFaL_FQSPU9UNv4r=s96-c

7

0

0.3333333333333333

1694030458980

0

[{"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1713392430403}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1713392430395}, {"name": "Virtual Reality", "slug": "virtual-reality", "groupId": "tHkKwsHjd8vhks1CL5oF",...

["futurism", "technology-default", "virtual-reality", "gaming", "ai"]

0.25

0.5

1713715101306

1713640907840

0

lmZXulLezKaZJetZAlTA

which-state-will-be-the-first-to-le

122

Which state will be the first to fully legalize Active Euthanasia in the United States?

2082776340000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1713392796650

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_euthanasia", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_euthanasia", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 9.10432729089094, "platformFee": 9.10432729089094, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

strutheo

1713753350135

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

10

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "2d204a294324", "prob": 0.015685533961290982, "text": "New Jersey", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.11128870917939, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 509.0077796755222, "textFts": "'jersey':2 'new':1", "contractId": "lmZXulLezKaZJetZAlTA", "createdTime": 1713392796650, "probChanges"...

0.3333333333333333

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1713392797518}, {"name": "⚕️ Medicine", "slug": "medicine", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1713392797516}, {"name": "🫀 Health", "slug": "health", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1...

["us-politics", "medicine", "health", "life-death", "law-order"]

0.25

1713753346619

1713459740299

True

prob-desc

0

0.4922845627995166

EOh5PZMmoD7w9iQac7J8

{"NO": 415.43336257812643, "YES": 91.42966233149312}

0.8150084095919196

will-nick-bostrom-found-a-new-insti

434.3638181437537

Will Nick Bostrom found a new institute with a similar purpose to the Future of Humanity Institute, before 2025?

1735707540000

srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1713393070532

Bayesian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anything that isn't publicly known to exist, and has a similar purpose (research into safeguarding the future of humanity, or philosophy that relates to that future, or whatever). It counts if the Future of Humanity institute reopens and isn't affi...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.1081562997401847}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.026620525044733, "platformFee": 2.6175067061816586, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

200

Bayesian

1719074611371

0

https://firebasestorage.…a41-dbd2866cd47c

9

0

0.3333333333333333

1656040913178

0

[{"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1713393079840}, {"name": "🧠 Philosophy", "slug": "philosophy-af8706ce1d7e", "groupId": "fxiwfHfrTmac3tKJyehm", "createdTime": 1713393081968}, {"name": "Nick Bostrom", "slug": "nick-bostrom", "groupId": "qimGDXR908UZnaGO9vxC", "...

["futurism", "philosophy-af8706ce1d7e", "nick-bostrom"]

0.25

0.5

1719074608298

1718243334849

0

oqIPjjoncXhrTOH4eu3f

how-many-cybertrucks-will-be-delive

1175.0063589079964

How many Cybertrucks will be delivered in 2024?

1738393140000

zAW1sZQkNxTuu5Y7yu7hiHBST2R2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1713393411320

Pax

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves in early 2025 when Tesla (or a verified employee of Tesla) publicly announces 2024 delivery numbers. Resolves N/A if specific Cybertruck numbers are not released. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 19.572881212863397, "platformFee": 10.892057925866807, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Pax

1718369247305

0

https://firebasestorage.…3df-04ac1f13c3c1

10

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "9b0a02105c98", "prob": 0.02684289751190643, "text": "<10,000", "index": 0, "poolNo": 21.976625309774107, "userId": "zAW1sZQkNxTuu5Y7yu7hiHBST2R2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 796.7362316024187, "textFts": "'000':2 '10':1", "contractId": "oqIPjjoncXhrTOH4eu3f", "createdTime": 1713393411321, "probChanges": {"da...

0.3333333333333333

1707869919369

0

[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1713393411540}, {"name": "Cybertruck", "slug": "cybertruck", "groupId": "d05a4b61-2aea-44ee-aaa5-b831489d8168", "createdTime": 1713393411561}, {"name": "Tesla", "slug": "tesla", "groupId": "aWXHajzqi5AtOZ3rZmcV",...

["technology-default", "cybertruck", "tesla", "automotive", "cars"]

0.25

1718369244194

True

0

0.49924304202355535

UCowhlNRNUaxiXnWI559

{"NO": 117.72589997770014, "YES": 119.6493326226617}

0.4951916407446162

will-there-be-a-video-of-boston-dyn

1

Will there be a video of Boston Dynamic new Atlas robot doing the Orange Justice or another Fortnite dance by EOY 2025?

1713405726055

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

2.400197119519166

True

play

CANCEL

public

1713394128136

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Has to be a dance with virality/fame coming from Fortnite", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://youtu.be/29ECwExc-_M?si=H7IEwXsfhehdFcmM", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs":...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0048083592553838095}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.01682964650963103, "platformFee": 0.01682964650963103, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713405726055

120

strutheo

1713405726055

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

1

0

0.3333333333333333

1700846926650

True

0

[{"name": "Robotics", "slug": "robotics", "groupId": "w6Q4c8YIK0W5GMslvGbd", "createdTime": 1713397729521}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1713397733130}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "cre...

["robotics", "technology-default", "science-default", "video-games", "humanoid-robotics"]

0.25

0.5

1713399957129

1713394787236

0.5

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

0

0.5

v98RvBBTShG9GigQtsp4

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

will-there-be-a-video-of-boston-dyn-8d80792c5f78

0

Will there be a video of Boston Dynamic new Atlas robot doing the Orange Justice or another Fortnite dance by EOY 2025?

1713394739235

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

2.726376370574009

True

play

CANCEL

public

1713394171562

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://youtu.be/29ECwExc-_M?si=H7IEwXsfhehdFcmM", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtu.be/29ECwExc-_M?si=H7IEwXsfhehdFcmM", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decorati...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713394739235

100

strutheo

1713394739235

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

0

0.3333333333333333

1700846926650

True

0

0.25

0.5

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

0

0.5

LpjR5GvZIUqtUFS5ctPV

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

will-there-be-a-video-of-boston-dyn-f50e661fd98d

0

Will there be a video of Boston Dynamic new Atlas robot doing the Orange Justice or another Fortnite dance by EOY 2025?

1713394734568

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

2.726376370574009

True

play

CANCEL

public

1713394719036

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://youtu.be/29ECwExc-_M?si=H7IEwXsfhehdFcmM", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtu.be/29ECwExc-_M?si=H7IEwXsfhehdFcmM", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decorati...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713394734568

100

strutheo

1713394734568

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

0

0.3333333333333333

1700846926650

True

0

0.25

0.5

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

0

0.3146454292822241

bFgFMfCvpTzaBdDVf1xw

{"NO": 129.1891494151863, "YES": 921.4269480602173}

0

will-apple-nasdaq-aapl-close-higher-00a571fdb06e

695

Will Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) close higher Apr 18 than Apr 17?

1713468600000

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

cpmm-1

0

1.8909358654458952

True

play

NO

public

1713397061248

Keenen W

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Apple Inc - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Resolves to", "type": "text"}, {"text": " Nasdaq Close Price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/aapl/h...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.06047548497647923}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.616098920850186, "platformFee": 4.616098920850186, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713489941051

280

KeenenW

1713468600000

0

https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb

12

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1697247005528

0

[{"name": "AI Stocks", "slug": "ai-stocks", "groupId": "Jf4rKNcxovEVEE8CyOgN", "createdTime": 1713397061415}, {"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1713397061432}, {"name": "AAPL", "slug": "aapl", "groupId": "2b9a9be2-80c3-4e15-860a-55fbe48b31f5", "createdTime": 1713397...

["ai-stocks", "apple", "aapl", "tech-stocks", "stocks"]

0.25

0.5

1713468317162

0.06

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

0

0.5993533942240523

USMbiYnmOTG7FFkPkBEB

{"NO": 582.0052823302044, "YES": 76.49813049947316}

1

will-reddit-nyse-rddt-close-higher-5754a7cdbd94

592.6389132306813

Will Reddit (NYSE: RDDT) close higher Apr 18 than Apr 17?

1713468600000

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

cpmm-1

0

2.2728675293235603

True

play

YES

public

1713397093709

Keenen W

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reddit Inc - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Resolves to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NYSE Close Price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nyse.com/quote/XNYS:RDDT", "class": "brea...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0807659827005448}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.249880898253823, "platformFee": 4.249880898253823, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713489389908

180

KeenenW

1713468600000

0

https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb

8

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1697247005528

0

[{"name": "Reddit", "slug": "reddit", "groupId": "DGXfEkwxk3kRk6Tz6tzV", "createdTime": 1713397093873}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1713397093870}, {"name": "Tech Stocks", "slug": "tech-stocks", "groupId": "pK06hNX8MsNw8zaBsX2N", "createdTime": 1713397093882...

["reddit", "stocks", "tech-stocks", "rddt", "ai-stocks"]

0.25

0.5

1713467757900

0.92

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

0

0.7182886057817842

oTzPhxHv4w31mcYWgTUH

{"NO": 1059.4926302076499, "YES": 182.2239275623075}

1

will-nvidia-nasdaq-nvda-close-highe-2f2b0602e544

1252.842827045854

Will Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) close higher Apr 18 than Apr 17?

1713468600000

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

cpmm-1

0

1.6041741315279565

True

play

YES

public

1713397133257

Keenen W

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NVIDIA Corp - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Resolves to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nasdaq Historical Data", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.06319218927429593}

0

{"creatorFee": 12.037271480779626, "platformFee": 12.037271480779626, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713489033916

320

KeenenW

1713468600000

0

https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb

15

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1697247005528

0

[{"name": "Tech Stocks", "slug": "tech-stocks", "groupId": "pK06hNX8MsNw8zaBsX2N", "createdTime": 1713397133516}, {"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1713397133517}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 17133971...

["tech-stocks", "finance", "stocks", "nvidia", "ai-stocks"]

0.25

0.5

1713467815852

0.94

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

0

0.4043739090485474

MoTZfWc9WxkRCsE3UMYJ

{"NO": 968.0603627200489, "YES": 1035.6832477839475}

0.3882212411343654

if-x-launchesrelaunches-short-form-c5792124e622

331.2195081770709

If X launches/relaunches short form video content platform will it be named Vine?

1735714740000

uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3

cpmm-1

0

9.712854540464376

False

basic

public

1713397647651

notarealuser

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1780666831310877100"}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If it is announced that X is bringing back short form video content platform. Will it be named Vine or renamed to something else.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.009633769189709929}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.946635678861216, "platformFee": 3.5538626317067616, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

notarealuser

1718456696652

0

https://firebasestorage.…8ad-29a00de78354

22

0

0.3333333333333333

1700298590902

0

[{"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1713398467861}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1713398472929}, {"name": "TikTok", "slug": "tiktok", "groupId": "MjTB5PFWedvqLHXO0vKz", "createdTi...

["twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "tiktok", "social-media"]

0.25

0.5

1718456693310

1713421988090

0

T0V0H2Co1jJ7OEgSUUmp

which-jockey-will-have-the-most-win-37087199aa1a

239.58124915392145

Which jockey will have the most wins at Keeneland on April 19th?

1713563280000

JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

MKT

public

1713397783074

Stuart Slagle

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Results verified with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Equibase.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://Equibase.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 2.741410070468954, "platformFee": 2.741410070468954, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713566767557

360

ovals

1713563280000

0

https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "d8ae77a1aae5", "prob": 0.27, "text": "Irad Ortiz, Jr.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 24.06890608197613, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 64.50591102543976, "textFts": "'irad':1 'jr':3 'ortiz':2", "contractId": "T0V0H2Co1jJ7OEgSUUmp", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaU...

1

0.3333333333333333

1697477345360

0

[{"name": "Jockey", "slug": "jockey", "groupId": "383cbd3e-b514-4419-ba36-e121d65d7b2f", "createdTime": 1713397783300}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1713397783286}, {"name": "Keeneland", "slug": "keeneland", "groupId": "d18116ec-df21-45d8-86da-7512d1...

["jockey", "sports-default", "keeneland", "horse-racing"]

0.25

1713558317939

0.15

JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1

False

0

0.492046115643269

wcuQZwxi60HQPkoSSP9W

{"NO": 97.14078690426415, "YES": 264.1362564047768}

0.2626729215928024

will-quentin-tarantino-release-the

189

Will Quentin Tarantino release The Critic in the 2020s?

1893477540000

oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1713397809920

Matty B

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Quentin Tarantino Drops ‘The Movie Critic’ As His Final Film", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deadline.com/2024/04/quentin-tarantino-final-film-wont-be-the-movie-critic-s...

BINARY

{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.6532706785817832, "platformFee": 2.6532706785817832, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

160

mattyb

1714841713179

0

https://firebasestorage.…6aa-3b42c0d89c03

6

0

0.3333333333333333

1697395701475

0

[{"name": "📺 Television & Film", "slug": "television-film", "groupId": "EUSEngFk1dGGBfaMeAmh", "createdTime": 1713397810405}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1713397810409}, {"name": "🎥 Movies", "slug": "movies", "groupId": "KSeNI...

["television-film", "entertainment", "movies", "cinema", "quentin-tarantino"]

0.25

0.5

1714841709878

0

JOf91qLzaQGK9ZcntuUg

tax-committee-which-taxes-credits-w

204.79313972958954

🛃Tax Committee: Which taxes & credits within Manifold will Manifold approve of? [ADD RESPONSES]

1735707540000

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1713398665647

Ammon Lam

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An attempt to see which taxes Manifold users think are good for Manifold", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Market never resolves", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 2.1088239676611322, "platformFee": 2.1088239676611322, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

310

AmmonLam

1714318432585

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c

8

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "fc53a97af6f9", "prob": 0.34150185495186275, "text": "fees on each transaction", "index": 0, "poolNo": 28.375739486725777, "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 54.71528644847903, "textFts": "'fee':1 'transact':4", "contractId": "JOf91qLzaQGK9ZcntuUg", "createdTime": 17133986656...

0.3333333333333333

1668192587343

0

[{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1713398666129}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1713398666135}, {"name": "Money", "slug": "money", "groupId": "Sh8C5Y6hkvLT7j...

["economics-default", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "money"]

0.25

1714318429272

1713597947829

False

0

8GiFa50N92EKa1W0fZT8

which-humanoid-robot-will-first-go

247.23406934937574

Which Humanoid Robot will first go into production?

1918105140000

uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1713398961042

notarealuser

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution based on first company to start deliveries of the humanoid robot to consumers. In addition, ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type":...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 6.5932569116322295, "platformFee": 5.606169603757709, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

notarealuser

1718590915650

0

https://firebasestorage.…8ad-29a00de78354

13

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "4e33425eae47", "prob": 0.23636548314760825, "text": "Tesla-Optimus", "index": 0, "poolNo": 133.472171482561, "userId": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 431.2133727227609, "textFts": "'optimus':3 'tesla':2 'tesla-optimus':1", "contractId": "8GiFa50N92EKa1W0fZT8", "createdTime": 17133...

0.3333333333333333

1700298590902

0

[{"name": "Humanoid robotics", "slug": "humanoid-robotics", "groupId": "c0d8e463-ef4a-4a29-90b2-4f7bcf5034bb", "createdTime": 1713398961378}, {"name": "Robotics", "slug": "robotics", "groupId": "w6Q4c8YIK0W5GMslvGbd", "createdTime": 1713398961394}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "cre...

["humanoid-robotics", "robotics", "ai"]

0.25

1718590912498

1718590882708

True

0

0.4983465776655965

6x7CpFJRGstmahSNrvSe

{"NO": 190.36831967698208, "YES": 209.9887067186229}

1

will-ismail-haniyeh-visit-turkey-th

63.536257376954765

Will Ismail Haniyeh visit Turkey this month? 🇵🇸🇹🇷

1713717287415

rK2EcetgPQYOME12Qt1xJDobuBD3

cpmm-1

0

7.1359418437286966

True

play

YES

public

1713399073019

soweli Son

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Per reputable news sources", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves NO on May 1st", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5261527967416755}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.9568304257228653, "platformFee": 0.9568304257228653, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713717287415

200

soweliSon

1713717287415

0

https://firebasestorage.…24c-0df4c1b1f734

6

0

0.3333333333333333

1697724392075

0

[{"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1713399073529}, {"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "groupId": "cea99c1c-afb9-49b2-adfa-9be739adce10", "createdTime": 1713399073539}, {"name": "Turkey", "slug": "turkey", "groupId": "...

["israel", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "turkey", "politics-default", "wars"]

0.25

0.5

1713685147155

1713717230488

0.47

rK2EcetgPQYOME12Qt1xJDobuBD3

0

0.21702406687076392

N8RhBKjoAga7YFS0tuBU

{"NO": 401.2082839979098, "YES": 2662.422024967575}

0

will-the-final-yesno-ratio-be-exact

3670.441029958028

Will the final yes/no ratio be EXACTLY 50/50?

1713456000000

32qBVHQd2ThPLdLE4Mp6UH3Tdir2

cpmm-1

0

1.0154015914415169

True

play

NO

public

1713399408329

Ayush Shah

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves at 5pm 18/4/24", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I won't trade.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.10191851149633778}

0

{"creatorFee": 31.98448836409986, "platformFee": 31.98448836409986, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713456034446

700

AyushShah

1715903060269

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIBl-C1C2azit04RpP4FcVE_5KX5Ql6RP2jZk0BXM3GSimO87sU=s96-c

33

0

0.3333333333333333

1713274608492

0

[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1713399408473}, {"name": "Statistics", "slug": "statistics", "groupId": "5a0a1696-a330-4a0c-8ad5-a90208ab3984", "createdTime": 1713399408471}, {"name": "randomization", "slug": "randomization", "groupId": "YOkz3U...

["technology-default", "statistics", "randomization", "world-default"]

0.25

0.5

1713455997961

1713450376162

0.04

32qBVHQd2ThPLdLE4Mp6UH3Tdir2

0

P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew

leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc

362150.1419832648

Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?

1720368000000

srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1713399506544

Bayesian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each answer contains a question: Do you think the person/character/concept is more Right-Wing (YES) or more Left-Wing (NO)? Bet YES, or NO, according to your opinion. 1 person = 1 vote (per answer), so having more shares does not make your vote cou...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 2445.108781686313, "platformFee": 2263.415563340244, "liquidityFee": 0}

9205.354026304298

78800

Bayesian

1720238151874

0

https://firebasestorage.…a41-dbd2866cd47c

284

28

ANYONE

[{"id": "d1961ed55ea6", "prob": 0.08, "text": "Scott Alexander", "index": 0, "poolNo": 35.25060258389592, "userId": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 561.9761809679596, "textFts": "'alexand':2 'scott':1", "contractId": "P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJ...

1

0.3333333333333333

1656040913178

0

[{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1713399506832}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1713399506815}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId":...

["culture-default", "entertainment", "technology-default"]

0.25

1720238148315

1720231489097

False

new

0

0.29692375788213593

HaQzCBESYuAaT364nym2

{"NO": 304.11565317260505, "YES": 8644.303044660839}

0

will-mkbhd-review-of-rabbit-r1-be-o

13690.270006788593

Will mkbhd review of Rabbit R1 be overall positive?

1714548816699

uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1713400067647

notarealuser

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The overall positive or negative sentiment of the video will be judged based on mostly the conclusion in the end(Open to change the criteria/add to it). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Open t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 59.857007542610205, "platformFee": 59.857007542610205, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714548816699

860

notarealuser

1714549321536

0

https://firebasestorage.…8ad-29a00de78354

42

0

0.3333333333333333

1700298590902

0

[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1713400067789}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1713400067791}, {"name": "Rabbit R1", "slug": "rabbit-r1", "groupId": "fa0f2bff-3e08-4e36-a828-dc2a2dfb74db", "cre...

["technology-default", "ai", "rabbit-r1", "youtube"]

0.25

0.5

1714502908155

1714549319625

0.01

uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3

0

zSN2VOOeL0xuduh3kr0s

fide-chess-candidates-tournament-ro-e496fc3427df

27317.288736354818

FIDE Chess Candidates Tournament - Round 12 Bets

1713495540000

FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

basic

MKT

public

1713400424335

Weezing

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You are welcome to add your own options.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Games start 18th of April at 2:30 PM EDT (~33 hours from market creation). Come live bet with us.", "type": "text"}]}, ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 108.7726239053887, "platformFee": 108.7726239053887, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713551597983

4250

Weezing

1713495540000

0

https://firebasestorage.…9ac-b0dfa544f276

24

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "7b2d9e61be69", "prob": 0.99, "text": "Someone catches up to Nepo", "index": 0, "poolNo": 908.1294436290734, "userId": "FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.17302468312193, "textFts": "'catch':2 'nepo':5 'someon':1", "contractId": "zSN2VOOeL0xuduh3kr0s", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId...

1

0.3333333333333333

1700212225777

0

[{"name": "Chess candidates 2024", "slug": "chess-candidates-2024", "groupId": "09ea3682-1d3f-4f69-8ce4-b68d4fe77f12", "createdTime": 1713400424700}, {"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b3ll9Ch9rdbcrTRAbjUf", "createdTime": 1713400424706}, {"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "E...

["chess-candidates-2024", "sports-betting", "chess"]

0.25

1713485196381

1713484938291

0.96

FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1

False

liquidity

0

0.09019320823266527

qE2HQJTEkZaXWfGGafPR

{"NO": 824.9594446720703, "YES": 2157.6579319602833}

0

will-donald-trump-testify-in-his-ma

1565.6110857784377

Will Donald Trump testify in his manhattan election interference case?

1716303533100

evfOfV4Sm1cv8ONlwl4I6KOwk4f2

cpmm-1

0

10.465548635230398

True

basic

NO

public

1713401134546

BennyBoy

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Either he will listen to his lawyers, or he will defy them and testify anyway. Place your bets - bet ends when the defense rests. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 11.473752389644018, "platformFee": 11.473752389644018, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716303533100

1000

BennyBoy

1716303533100

0

https://firebasestorage.…c9c-86f10ac9a50c

15

0

0.3333333333333333

1690828085307

0

[{"name": "Trial of the Century", "slug": "trial-of-the-century", "groupId": "usp0cQDi8y1YG1CCmpfn", "createdTime": 1713401134717}, {"name": "🐘 Republican Party", "slug": "magaland", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1713401134710}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4...

["trial-of-the-century", "magaland", "donald-trump"]

0.25

0.5

1715860944057

0.04

evfOfV4Sm1cv8ONlwl4I6KOwk4f2

0

0.14682788165010205

LMRf1dV5mhe79YTLT16v

{"NO": 571.1453338067934, "YES": 2982.40749499641}

0

will-openais-superalignment-team-pu

5829.880691533377

Will OpenAI's Superalignment team publish any paper towards its goal in 2024?

1716649090818

Wx3iu5xJgMTRw6GN9h2lxo4wSn23

cpmm-1

0

10.429045382085762

True

basic

NO

public

1713401311939

dp

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "OpenAI's Superalignment team had one research output (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Weak-to-Strong Generalization: Eliciting Strong Capabilities With Weak Supervision", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://arxiv.org...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 27.364798738241387, "platformFee": 27.353646042131977, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716649090818

1000

dp

1717708789270

0

https://firebasestorage.…2ab-c6314de603e5

30

0

0.3333333333333333

1669042956150

0

[{"name": "🤖❤️ AI Alignment", "slug": "ai-alignment", "groupId": "p8Tmu38lHhN1JQavwAmR", "createdTime": 1713401312096}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1713401312109}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 17134013121...

["ai-alignment", "ai", "openai"]

0.25

0.5

1716646277772

1717708788141

0.03

Wx3iu5xJgMTRw6GN9h2lxo4wSn23

0

0.7016514281705589

6Ymg3Bcox6drzU230YMa

{"NO": 1136.2976751768779, "YES": 928.4331865769984}

0.74215632589036

will-andrew-tate-be-found-guilty-of-a2b1d4d0eca3

503

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of rape or human trafficking in the UK?

1772236740000

HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3

cpmm-1

0

9.598570076510052

False

basic

public

1713401627692

Odoacre

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The UK have issued a European arrest warrant for Andrew Tate and his brother.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A Romanian court has approved a request from Britain to extradite Andrew Tate but ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.012227541163790323}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.143450999985879, "platformFee": 6.236557184331585, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Odoacre

1718667999956

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOdoacre%2Fe8tDh301jg.avatar2?alt=media&token=79f05389-576e-437b-9be9-bda60b4cd21a

17

0

0.3333333333333333

https://firebasestorage.…6b6-681c0fd4f043

1660254401272

0

[{"name": "Crime", "slug": "crime", "groupId": "j7TkLdIOLyiTtiQQKjl9", "createdTime": 1713401627849}, {"name": "andrew tate", "slug": "andrew-tate", "groupId": "3a0f34a6-79e7-4c87-926f-c10d6f4f9528", "createdTime": 1713401627841}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "create...

["crime", "andrew-tate", "uk-politics", "entertainment"]

0.25

0.5

1718667996909

0

0.39042407771458376

BPvdgiNJRFLf80lf7NPT

{"NO": 74.48710088488478, "YES": 445.54673053193085}

1

will-i-place-on-smt-online-fb8f50611f64

532.3518374165199

will I place on SMT online

1713748688197

3eWyy4mXplVC0UiSLJxQ4zQvLV12

cpmm-1

0

8.712795955055208

True

play

YES

public

1713402842291

Ryan Tang

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SMT online, I got 5+3 on algebra, 8+1 on geo", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.9032794557502711}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.8683512222611465, "platformFee": 3.8683512222611465, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713748688197

160

RyanTang

1713748688197

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLkAslmKFsP0CRtvNxmqhCjJi4G3ZAn63GFIsxd7o4qUFMMnLA=s96-c

7

0

0.3333333333333333

1713363790081

0

[{"name": "🧮 Math", "slug": "mathematics", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1713402842424}, {"name": "Competition Math", "slug": "competition-math", "groupId": "64e0006d-606d-4e68-ad95-045c341bb9d1", "createdTime": 1713402842429}]

["mathematics", "competition-math"]

0.25

0.5

1713726903639

0.1

3eWyy4mXplVC0UiSLJxQ4zQvLV12

0

0.3221900993741224

Urgkvx1dndMsGmxqKShX

{"NO": 77.96168440730453, "YES": 818.5943636840216}

0

will-the-weekly-total-mana-bet-go-b

642.0473588663763

Will the weekly total mana bet go below 5 million in April?

1714891564878

HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1713402959832

Odoacre

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the \"Total mana bet\" graph in the manifold ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "stats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/stats", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:d...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.5770844562974076, "platformFee": 3.5770844562974076, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714891564878

200

Odoacre

1714891564878

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOdoacre%2Fe8tDh301jg.avatar2?alt=media&token=79f05389-576e-437b-9be9-bda60b4cd21a

7

0

0.3333333333333333

1660254401272

0

[{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1713402960065}]

["manifold-6748e065087e"]

0.25

0.5

1714444109130

0.04

HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3

0

0.40476389613191943

sILDACV4r2UotDSp7b5e

{"NO": 817.6594250222108, "YES": 1303.7464725318619}

0.2989703837855645

will-manifold-unban-firstuserhere-o

456

Will Manifold unban @firstuserhere OR @BTE by the end of November 2024?

1733029140000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

9.745215532415585

False

basic

public

1713402972558

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "UwBR3KhCbH3tpsRXL5yZ", "label": "/strutheo/will-manifold-unban-firstuserhere-a"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.548128170242963, "platformFee": 4.056469736894749, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

strutheo

1717281392496

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

14

0

0.3333333333333333

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1713402972724}, {"name": "Manifold User Retention", "slug": "manifold-user-retention", "groupId": "6b8FKYZGzLnb5hYtn8oG", "createdTime": 1713402972733}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifol...

["manifold-business-future", "manifold-user-retention", "manifold-users", "manifold-drama", "manifold-6748e065087e"]

0.25

0.5

1717281389310

1717219285186

0

0.29009809251190743

UwBR3KhCbH3tpsRXL5yZ

{"NO": 146.1631564278792, "YES": 603.9254423662377}

0.09000000000000136

will-manifold-unban-firstuserhere-a

482.3070619018207

Will Manifold unban @firstuserhere AND @BTE by the end of November 2024?

1733029140000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1713403007824

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "sILDACV4r2UotDSp7b5e", "label": "/strutheo/will-manifold-unban-firstuserhere-o"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 8.326672684688674e-17, "week": 8.326672684688674e-17, "month": 8.326672684688674e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.017405715991374, "platformFee": 3.017405715991374, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

240

strutheo

1713474959093

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

8

0

0.3333333333333333

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "Manifold Drama", "slug": "manifold-drama", "groupId": "srdbxZea0H4L09GcXRMF", "createdTime": 1713403008367}, {"name": "Manifold User Retention", "slug": "manifold-user-retention", "groupId": "6b8FKYZGzLnb5hYtn8oG", "createdTime": 1713403008365}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "group...

["manifold-drama", "manifold-user-retention", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-users", "manifold-business-future"]

0.25

0.5

1713468344472

1713474958455

0

0.4851985803349526

TWcNJj0OVzZ6akmpFejK

{"NO": 97.37117598780945, "YES": 149.1114886672778}

0.38098086785475876

will-any-of-the-golden-gate-bridge

30

Will any of the 26 arrested SF GGB Palestine protestors be convicted of false imprisonment (or related felony)

1735718340000

o1sW1yCxuWa6dLzPOJsXI8Naaf22

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1713403138011

Mingwei Samuel

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/golden-gate-bridge-protest-jenkins-restitution-19408362.php", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/golden-gate-bridge-protest-jenkins-r...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.44425566636108343, "platformFee": 0.44425566636108343, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

120

MingweiSamuel

1713594129565

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI6ldQrStJ44b0PdwS-rw5zDeTbUYh0-E7Bg93loyHX6SA=s96-c

2

0

0.3333333333333333

1694804409859

0

[{"name": "San Francisco", "slug": "san-francisco", "groupId": "77nEsKGsORflUYGveLSX", "createdTime": 1713403138157}, {"name": "🇵🇸 Palestine", "slug": "palestine", "groupId": "1de63cc6-7700-472a-a943-e67cb4d3e07d", "createdTime": 1713403138174}, {"name": "California Politics", "slug": "california-politics", "groupId"...

["san-francisco", "palestine", "california-politics", "crime"]

0.25

0.5

1713459402285

0

0.7480248142793067

lZGjOuqKsvbkTAsauV3K

{"NO": 4505.282764400165, "YES": 135.09680871335786}

1

will-bitcoin-hit-66k-in-april-2024

8789.339636330677

Will Bitcoin hit $66K in April 2024?

1713799986653

R1mAD1swLeaUdTeyVxvGqx7gYz13

cpmm-1

0

8.446469446809209

True

play

YES

public

1713403753115

Crypto Cat

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Blockchain", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/assets/btc", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decor...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.010000000000000009}

0

{"creatorFee": 28.563791203823374, "platformFee": 28.563791203823374, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713799986653

460

CCat

1713799986653

0

https://firebasestorage.…835-c1cc67f03f73

20

0

0.3333333333333333

1697489244545

0

[{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1713403753460}, {"name": "🅱️ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "createdTime": 1713403753463}, {"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "cr...

["economics-default", "bitcoin", "crypto-speculation", "bitcoin-maxi", "catcoin"]

0.25

0.5

1713795517274

1713764186648

0.99

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

0

J1hs55JDrtEEn4UGlqss

when-will-sports-day-end

58.16832708608308

When will Sports Day end?

1713514093643

3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxPFexwI3

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

MKT

public

1713403902718

Bohaska

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Our school is having Sports Day tomorrow! The last event is a \"color run\" at 4pm where we apparently all have to wear white clothes because they'll get color on them.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.8017318521204464, "platformFee": 0.8017318521204464, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713514093643

205

bohaska

1713514093643

0

https://firebasestorage.…c1a-2f61d7d0735a

1

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "d9a22f173657", "prob": 0.38, "text": "Before 4:15pm", "index": 0, "poolNo": 32.02807102718073, "userId": "3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxPFexwI3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 51.790744033026165, "textFts": "'15pm':3 '4':2", "contractId": "J1hs55JDrtEEn4UGlqss", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxP...

0.3333333333333333

1692081472895

0

[{"name": "High School", "slug": "high-school", "groupId": "6768fd11-233b-4ae9-904f-f04eea47f917", "createdTime": 1713403902960}]

["high-school"]

0.25

1713463058063

0.5

3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxPFexwI3

False

0

0.30206954192593394

gaxyBJWkog4NwYHl9Nj2

{"NO": 32.86800362680077, "YES": 1223.899885261584}

0

will-1fc-koln-beat-sv-darmstadt-98

1090

Will 1.FC Köln beat SV Darmstadt 98 during regular time on Sat, Apr 20, 2024?⚽ Bundesliga 🇩🇪

1713630600000

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-1

0

4.5815320825884

True

play

NO

public

1713404312425

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ 1.FC Köln vs SV Darmstadt 98", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Saturday, April 20, 2024", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.011489562106123976}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.050057369208178, "platformFee": 3.050057369208178, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713635585574

140

FranklinBaldo

1713630600000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

2

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1659579722296

0

[{"name": "Bundesliga", "slug": "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "groupId": "7c53ccd3-1a40-41ca-bd88-dedac17a91a9", "createdTime": 1713404312709}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1713404312730}]

["bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "soccer"]

0.25

0.5

1713626757162

0.01

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

0

0.23266474031002252

4XDxV2K67g3Mw2QpwZxn

{"NO": 76.07782904393129, "YES": 2250.3825434920113}

0

will-fc-heidenheim-beat-rb-leipzig

2040

Will FC Heidenheim beat RB Leipzig during regular time on Sat, Apr 20, 2024?⚽ Bundesliga 🇩🇪

1713630600000

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-1

0

3.507327069147734

True

play

NO

public

1713404316238

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ FC Heidenheim vs RB Leipzig", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Saturday, April 20, 2024", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.010146542585218138}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.064843246746711, "platformFee": 4.064843246746711, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713635360407

220

FranklinBaldo

1713630600000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

6

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1659579722296

0

[{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1713404316493}, {"name": "Bundesliga", "slug": "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "groupId": "7c53ccd3-1a40-41ca-bd88-dedac17a91a9", "createdTime": 1713404316508}]

["soccer", "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2"]

0.25

0.5

1713626586132

0.01

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

0

0.22396561630339454

Fm95kDffsM6m8yTqHkj5

{"NO": 120.68881799439339, "YES": 3346.696614072728}

0

will-luton-beat-brentford-during-re

3249.3536167530588

Will Luton beat Brentford during regular time on Sat, Apr 20, 2024?⚽ Premier League 🇬🇧

1713632400000

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-1

0

2.6023422189968035

True

play

NO

public

1713404320139

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Luton vs Brentford", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Saturday, April 20, 2024", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listIt...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.01030040891521102}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.272992569553097, "platformFee": 9.272992569553097, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713635333958

340

FranklinBaldo

1713632400000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

13

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1659579722296

0

[{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1713404320499}, {"name": "Premier League", "slug": "premiere-league", "groupId": "5gsW3dPR3ySBRZCodrgm", "createdTime": 1713404320498}]

["soccer", "premiere-league"]

0.25

0.5

1713626760150

0.01

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

0

0.16862357506375156

TkGbcHcpm0GM3ejDbIKF

{"NO": 107.83089730846612, "YES": 2069.3675172134244}

0

will-sheffield-utd-beat-burnley-dur

2901.378387398355

Will Sheffield Utd beat Burnley during regular time on Sat, Apr 20, 2024?⚽ Premier League 🇬🇧

1713632400000

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-1

0

3.7665047862906467

True

play

NO

public

1713404323921

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Sheffield Utd vs Burnley", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Saturday, April 20, 2024", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.01045828055205149}

0

{"creatorFee": 11.372660022051793, "platformFee": 11.372660022051793, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713635303495

280

FranklinBaldo

1713632400000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

11

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1659579722296

0

[{"name": "Premier League", "slug": "premiere-league", "groupId": "5gsW3dPR3ySBRZCodrgm", "createdTime": 1713404324290}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1713404324301}]

["premiere-league", "soccer"]

0.25

0.5

1713626988895

0.01

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

0

0.5101059148448135

2uRKdnR9btkEUdTG9H7m

{"NO": 1319.4648023719246, "YES": 14.01048275900368}

1

will-rayo-vallecano-beat-osasuna-du

1566.245343965509

Will Rayo Vallecano beat Osasuna during regular time on Sat, Apr 20, 2024?⚽ La Liga 🇪🇸

1713631325311

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-1

0

4.3106705064174005

True

play

YES

public

1713404622336

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Saturday, April 20, 2024", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.8759534380456889}

0

{"creatorFee": 10.815657662615132, "platformFee": 10.815657662615132, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713631325311

200

FranklinBaldo

1713631325311

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

6

0

0.3333333333333333

1659579722296

0

[{"name": "La Liga", "slug": "la-liga", "groupId": "7tVich7PzeBIyTTzP9o9", "createdTime": 1713404622599}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1713404622645}]

["la-liga", "soccer"]

0.25

0.5

1713631293342

0.99

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

0

CmluGVZKBwGcLZeWOEcw

what-will-harvards-antisemitism-ran

80

What will Harvard's antisemitism ranking be in April 2025?

1743566340000

8dVDne83ecNjKUEMagAZ5uswIAW2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1713407788998

UnspecifiedPerson

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the ADL's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Campus Antisemitism Report Card", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.adl.org/campus-antisemitism-report-card", "class": "break-anywhere hover:under...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 2.7913679100957385, "platformFee": 0.5722211043566163, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

UnspecifiedPerson

1718795999611

0

https://firebasestorage.…7b2-a366cdeb70d3

3

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "cd932f212c71", "prob": 0.12883957219475484, "text": "A: \"Ahead of the Pack\"", "index": 0, "poolNo": 76.02199693678534, "userId": "8dVDne83ecNjKUEMagAZ5uswIAW2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 514.0296125320039, "textFts": "'ahead':2 'pack':5", "contractId": "CmluGVZKBwGcLZeWOEcw", "createdTime": 1713407788998,...

0.3333333333333333

1704685629131

0

[{"name": "Antisemitism", "slug": "antisemitism-2efab4a423c1", "groupId": "a13b3878-c6bf-4652-8f82-9f0d51921bf0", "createdTime": 1713407789216}, {"name": "Jewish People", "slug": "jewish-people", "groupId": "wuZiAmZqHpY2SpyQqikv", "createdTime": 1713407789225}, {"name": "Harvard", "slug": "harvard", "groupId": "e2bd5bc...

["antisemitism-2efab4a423c1", "jewish-people", "harvard"]

0.25

1718795996515

True

0

0.35790459716589723

AlLGryEkBdhQ3ToshuHf

{"NO": 103.65264017572736, "YES": 5719.144531993536}

0

will-amanabot-receive-deposits-from-143eed601a26

5673.915971063935

Will AMANABOT receive deposits from >50 unique manifold accounts by April 24th 2024?

1714028340000

2yBGlqecngd9lGMIFXnaJfE86nn2

cpmm-1

0

6.707655632153369

True

play

NO

public

1713407878255

Anton Makiievskyi

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AMANABOT", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/AMANABOT", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.05675045483800647}

0

{"creatorFee": 14.134671529383894, "platformFee": 14.134671529383894, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714068853963

510

mckiev

1714028340000

0

https://firebasestorage.…974-e110b0dd226d

11

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1670333970933

0

[{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1713407878409}, {"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1713407878404}, {"name": "Privacy", "slug": "privacy", "groupId": "1f1f4a4c-8f62-4b4b-b06c-efc...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "crypto-speculation", "privacy"]

0.25

0.5

1714023669994

1714028440255

0.01

2yBGlqecngd9lGMIFXnaJfE86nn2

0

PV7mnsLMqFqwBZEExHkN

rate-the-new-manifold-fee-system

0

Rate the new Manifold Fee System

1714050111998

dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22

none

0

1

True

public

1713408457975

Base

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714050120325

Base

1714050110285

0

https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137

30

0

0.3333333333333333

1690298751650

0

[{"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1713408458129}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1713408458126}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9N...

["polls", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-6748e065087e"]

0.25

1714047166324

["7bec7e436b1a"]

0

0.24702579077426448

xNH2nxiFXXYZX1A3gHf6

{"NO": 44.30115877148501, "YES": 1280.394901983506}

0

will-valencia-beat-real-betis-durin

1849.7091450665826

Will Valencia beat Real Betis during regular time on Sat, Apr 20, 2024?⚽ La Liga 🇪🇸

1713641400000

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-1

0

10.537980605869137

True

play

NO

public

1713409707854

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Valencia vs Real Betis", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Saturday, April 20, 2024", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "li...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.011223581058363985}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.6607057645065195, "platformFee": 4.6607057645065195, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713643906954

160

FranklinBaldo

1713641400000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

4

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1659579722296

0

[{"name": "La Liga", "slug": "la-liga", "groupId": "7tVich7PzeBIyTTzP9o9", "createdTime": 1713409708036}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1713409708040}]

["la-liga", "soccer"]

0.25

0.5

1713638855459

0.03

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

0

StvSa1TWkVGZB6rGLaRQ

suggest-manifest-alternatives

0

Suggest events like Manifest

DGYg1e9JksfeFvPHFCuHLkKpEcV2

none

0

1000000

False

public

1713410552690

TonyPepperoni 🪿

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I’m wondering what other manifest-like events are out there. I’ll give up to 5k mana to whoever suggests a similar multi-day event that I attend and enjoy.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some...

BOUNTIED_QUESTION

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

TonyPepperoni

1715304252385

0

https://firebasestorage.…884-fdf2cfdcaefb

0

5000

["1Qky9kAAPw5eY3gRRnrk", "vluStLvW8dKL5aEaa9Wi", "pHgJAoah0xj81KdMWH0K", "wPtLtBoMM2CAPghLLAOX", "FnmcqGFPCEpvMpXpfSnC"]

0.3333333333333333

1691471177482

0

[{"name": "SF Events", "slug": "sf-events", "groupId": "qSQNlQOaDWJhZJESqY12", "createdTime": 1713410552910}, {"name": "Events", "slug": "events", "groupId": "FJ1qV3KPOVUBjlCS0IWj", "createdTime": 1713410552913}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime...

["sf-events", "events", "manifest"]

0.25

1715304251072

5500

0