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L0nLVS1lVenVbUULnWEk | how-many-games-will-the-philadelphi | 85 | How many games will the Philadelphia Eagles win in the 2024-25 NFL regular season? | 1736139540000 | Rcnau899SsWFEuL0ukY1hMGkath2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713827708139 | Alexander Miller | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9458159157242751, "platformFee": 1.3086062257023379, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | AlexanderMiller | 1719977712783 | 0 | 6 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "ae53c0f4b5f8", "prob": 0.014700540309391101, "text": "0-1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.061113801081525, "userId": "Rcnau899SsWFEuL0ukY1hMGkath2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 138.1455560017168, "textFts": "'-1':2 '0':1", "contractId": "L0nLVS1lVenVbUULnWEk", "createdTime": 1713827708139, "probChanges": {"day": -5... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1698758419090 | 0 | [{"name": "🏈 NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1713827708440}, {"name": "Philadelphia Eagles", "slug": "philadelphia-eagles", "groupId": "1ff4d461-45a1-4005-be6d-3a0e14a60fb0", "createdTime": 1713827708443}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbK... | ["nfl", "philadelphia-eagles", "football", "american-football", "sports-default"] | 0.25 | 1719977709326 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Xxnd5DzAqMTaiuw1Ec5Z | how-many-games-will-the-seattle-sea | 85.00000000000001 | How many games will the Seattle Seahawks win in the 2024-25 NFL regular season? | 1736139540000 | Rcnau899SsWFEuL0ukY1hMGkath2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713827729910 | Alexander Miller | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.3508595984176597, "platformFee": 0.6619808276911732, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | AlexanderMiller | 1718598989770 | 0 | 4 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "8a99eb96072b", "prob": 0.009742317059810861, "text": "0-1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.658970084521787, "userId": "Rcnau899SsWFEuL0ukY1hMGkath2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 168.6259913201314, "textFts": "'-1':2 '0':1", "contractId": "Xxnd5DzAqMTaiuw1Ec5Z", "createdTime": 1713827729910, "probChanges": {"day": 4.... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1698758419090 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1713827730274}, {"name": "American Football", "slug": "american-football", "groupId": "ce506ff3-38db-4709-83ce-b40797d884e4", "createdTime": 1713827730272}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6C... | ["sports-default", "american-football", "football", "seattle-seahawks", "nfl"] | 0.25 | 1718598986266 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PWbD1uQ30isRFjNDF6yj | how-many-games-will-the-tampa-bay-b | 57 | How many games will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win in the 2024-25 NFL regular season? | 1736139540000 | Rcnau899SsWFEuL0ukY1hMGkath2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713827736066 | Alexander Miller | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.0446179671347915, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | AlexanderMiller | 1718598953526 | 0 | 2 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "dd1f53664489", "prob": 0.023000066325832295, "text": "0-1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.094901740789371, "userId": "Rcnau899SsWFEuL0ukY1hMGkath2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 88.9875199840777, "textFts": "'-1':2 '0':1", "contractId": "PWbD1uQ30isRFjNDF6yj", "createdTime": 1713827736066, "probChanges": {"day": 1.3... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1698758419090 | 0 | [{"name": "American Football", "slug": "american-football", "groupId": "ce506ff3-38db-4709-83ce-b40797d884e4", "createdTime": 1713827736513}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1713827736514}, {"name": "🏈 NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp... | ["american-football", "football", "nfl", "sports-default", "tampa-bay-buccaneers"] | 0.25 | 1718598950160 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
I88REHG3x5l5B5PNnXwy | how-many-games-will-the-tennessee-t | 34.99999999999999 | How many games will the Tennessee Titans win in the 2024-25 NFL regular season? | 1736139540000 | Rcnau899SsWFEuL0ukY1hMGkath2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713827742193 | Alexander Miller | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.32654818733964097, "platformFee": 0.32654818733964097, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | AlexanderMiller | 1713987756750 | 0 | 2 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "31644be45ef2", "prob": 0.019330261417333166, "text": "0-1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.102220647956173, "userId": "Rcnau899SsWFEuL0ukY1hMGkath2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 106.65061008568006, "textFts": "'-1':2 '0':1", "contractId": "I88REHG3x5l5B5PNnXwy", "createdTime": 1713827742193, "probChanges": {"day": 9... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1698758419090 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1713827742524}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1713827742512}, {"name": "American Football", "slug": "american-football", "groupId": "ce506ff3-38db-4709-83... | ["sports-default", "football", "american-football", "tennessee-titans", "nfl"] | 0.25 | 1713987753304 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4015119587495231 | SY72a1QQ0iVtMIA1uH64 | {"NO": 208.5991091624585, "YES": 227.61633183190227} | 0.3807381325178072 | the-pivot-will-anyone-clone-a-prepi | 306 | [The Pivot] Will anyone clone a pre-Pivot Manifold and get it running in 2024? | 1735711140000 | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713830745749 | Matty B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be done this year. I have to be able to sign up and bet on it. Can have fees, can’t have any other Pivot related changes (Prize Points…etc.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Doesn’t need t... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.696494308753688, "platformFee": 4.239906104821153, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 220 | mattyb | 1717380885542 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697395701475 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1713830745981}, {"name": "Pivot Predictions", "slug": "pivot-predictions", "groupId": "6iOdS5vCFUBWysZiBH1F", "createdTime": 1713830745996}] | ["manifold-business-future", "pivot-predictions"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717380882417 | 1714225900369 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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APj0aWsPv4Wpz0tqvzi8 | do-you-like-moonmars-related-market | 0 | Do you like Moon/Mars related markets? | 1714517940000 | xu6BIDLCFSaSPFhxDGppn69dTCB2 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1713831407535 | Caterpidgey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have seen a lot of Moon/Mars-related markets on my feed recently, and I want to know if people like them.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This poll will be used to resolve a closed market on... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714517941202 | Caterpidgey | 1714213852651 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1704779829087 | 0 | [{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1713831407801}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1713831407826}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "create... | ["science-default", "manifold-6748e065087e", "space"] | 0.25 | 1714213851361 | ["c3d8f7b7fcb3"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Cz1heriRnsdAQvtiBcio | when-will-the-next-generation-defin | 263.82077850617344 | When will the next generation-defining LLM be released? | 1735718340000 | dp5qoJAOmqgfNGxbRm00x8b9bU03 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713831663125 | Mactuary | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When will the next Large Language Model be released that has an LMSYS Arena Elo of at least 1334; 75 points better than the current leader?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of the 22nd of Ap... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.7175259688228524, "platformFee": 2.60067897833212, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 290 | Mactuary | 1718655589798 | 0 | 7 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "c957beeedf59", "prob": 0.16, "text": "By end of May 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 22.50684618627885, "userId": "dp5qoJAOmqgfNGxbRm00x8b9bU03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 118.39036848407729, "textFts": "'2024':5 'end':2 'may':4", "contractId": "Cz1heriRnsdAQvtiBcio", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "dp5qoJAO... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1682788513810 | 0 | [{"name": "Google Gemini", "slug": "google-gemini", "groupId": "m7v1GlEs2JcFyqdvUbuN", "createdTime": 1713831663390}, {"name": "GPT-5", "slug": "gpt5", "groupId": "3eb479df-003d-47a2-8ba4-a41e637176da", "createdTime": 1713831663451}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1713... | ["google-gemini", "gpt5", "ai", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 1718655586681 | 1715624291926 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
zRlsquvPmxJvsJegzzxQ | who-will-release-the-next-generatio | 1527.4082698998745 | Who will release the next generation-defining LLM? | 1735718340000 | dp5qoJAOmqgfNGxbRm00x8b9bU03 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1713832029123 | Mactuary | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Who will release the next Large Language Model that has an LMSYS Arena Elo of at least 1334; 75 points better than the current leader?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of the 22nd of April, ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 29.82466781915092, "platformFee": 11.578597967258167, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Mactuary | 1719170197485 | 0 | 34 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "4cfa877c4ca3", "prob": 0.533040333200252, "text": "OpenAI", "index": 0, "poolNo": 195.6447168214197, "userId": "dp5qoJAOmqgfNGxbRm00x8b9bU03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 171.39076742948808, "textFts": "'openai':1", "contractId": "zRlsquvPmxJvsJegzzxQ", "createdTime": 1713832029124, "probChanges": {"day": 0.0... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1682788513810 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1713832029426}, {"name": "GPT-5", "slug": "gpt5", "groupId": "3eb479df-003d-47a2-8ba4-a41e637176da", "createdTime": 1713832029430}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime"... | ["ai", "gpt5", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 1719170194429 | 1718981498546 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9092705249937081 | 8SDIHV6olWQWfuReq0gl | {"NO": 1294.4707724611642, "YES": 920.7971706783419} | 1 | will-i-make-black-mop-this-year | 3158.9323925184417 | Will I make black mop this year? | 1717214340000 | LNZoVksExGVcaFn8E9kzwsg2XAn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.319845761817433 | True | basic | YES | public | 1713833096955 | Aprameya Tripathy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am in the running for black mop. Will I qualify for it it?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0662744674318152} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.585925331095872, "platformFee": 19.105039057868755, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717464287341 | 1000 | AprameyaTripathy | 1717214340000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLiRYKntUBwnhyVIJzk9crrq_tgPSf-RD35U-qWU9iK5ek=s96-c | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1706669521212 | 0 | [{"name": "Competition Math", "slug": "competition-math", "groupId": "64e0006d-606d-4e68-ad95-045c341bb9d1", "createdTime": 1713833097103}] | ["competition-math"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716781041361 | 1713853470213 | 0.93 | LNZoVksExGVcaFn8E9kzwsg2XAn1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0d3fC163Ei0emdDJuRDc | when-will-a-spacecraft-be-launched | 147.89965501098575 | When will a spacecraft be launched by non-rocket means? | 3155875140000 | xULIs4V4S5ag3T5XjHGYXOMfLIm2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713833413009 | Zander | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When will something launch to orbit which is fully or partially lifted by a technology other than rockets or jet engines?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For example:", "type": "text"}]}, {"ty... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.344257462398093, "platformFee": 4.344257462398093, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 220 | CommanderZander | 1714252824470 | 0 | 7 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "5871edeec456", "prob": 0.047158416063260475, "text": "2024-2025", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.346203688918759, "userId": "xULIs4V4S5ag3T5XjHGYXOMfLIm2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 87.81557890972834, "textFts": "'-2025':2 '2024':1", "contractId": "0d3fC163Ei0emdDJuRDc", "createdTime": 1713833413009, "probChanges"... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1706651753925 | 0 | [{"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1713833413816}, {"name": "Commercial spaceflight", "slug": "commercial-spaceflight", "groupId": "867eae28-05ff-4cae-8aca-875c18c57052", "createdTime": 1713833413813}] | ["space", "commercial-spaceflight"] | 0.25 | 1714252820549 | 1713904105498 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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LxOLCqlrn6ZSJZ62e1Z0 | quien-va-a-ganar | 10 | ¿Quien va a ganar? | 1713878142015 | 0E71e0QuTPRqLV8ro2Ot741kCvO2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1713833807353 | Camilo Zuluaga | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Liga semi-pro Q2-2024", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.13226928035517543, "platformFee": 0.13226928035517543, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713878142015 | 100 | CamiloZuluaga | 1713878142015 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ALV-UjUsKAEoxT1_SIRZxJWwyFwqYxyUTSn3xHC0DgPdEbwvUIrmXbp5fEfatJKII4twBaZ4-aQboeTKFHgeVkgSTt3I-5z15_nz2UtyzPNhDRyxu43hUygdWPowxkvrIYszQm2Ppzavd-x-8rxM1TQxjVxdXmjG2rseM7R6_zZ-s98KazmEFBCv7KWsSPk94ifGSyzGb3GWJkS8l0vrP2OvS_qRY35owwZAJN9z7gcHrS20RxWDko89eQe8yLeZ4URD7rXbno69ANU1NH7Z-3Eokjt... | 1 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "e084d970ed73", "prob": 0.2816315152643422, "text": "Equipo 1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 22.13716472746971, "userId": "0E71e0QuTPRqLV8ro2Ot741kCvO2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 56.46612903633915, "textFts": "'1':2 'equipo':1", "contractId": "LxOLCqlrn6ZSJZ62e1Z0", "resolverId": "0E71e0QuTPRqLV8ro2Ot741kCvO2", "c... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1698094621913 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1713833807604}] | ["soccer"] | 0.25 | 1713833835465 | 0E71e0QuTPRqLV8ro2Ot741kCvO2 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ZLFqEzvTLfocTqeaOnp3 | will-the-pivot-affect-how-much-you-8b9ba59311a1 | 0 | Will the pivot affect how much you use manifold? | 1715756340000 | DGYg1e9JksfeFvPHFCuHLkKpEcV2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1713834034365 | TonyPepperoni 🪿 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715756340659 | TonyPepperoni | 1715054495443 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1691471177482 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1713834034520}, {"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1713834034531}, {"name": "Pivot Predictions", "slug": "pivot-predictions", "groupId": "6iOdS5vCFUBWysZiBH1F", "... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "polls", "pivot-predictions", "manifold-drama"] | 0.25 | 1714624630957 | ["6aced3f2bae3", "4f0d50ab719d"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.38458668267628204 | L78hcRzQzzO5q5rof7mq | {"NO": 697.2625865066149, "YES": 1675.2045424697355} | 0 | will-apple-announce-a-llm-chatbot-a | 2439.0367562111433 | Will Apple announce their own LLM chatbot at WWDC 2024? | 1718050107217 | brEHeVfwNxdHIZ0cF4B3JsNnU212 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.790247128499946 | True | basic | NO | public | 1713834266641 | Predict | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves positively if Apple announces a chatbot utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) during the main keynote of WWDC 2024. The chatbot must be capable of answering questions in written text and supporting an ongoing conversation, sim... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.20600792728038508} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 38.07120841270387, "platformFee": 28.10718529094872, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718050107217 | 1000 | Predict | 1718050107217 | 0 | 46 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1674173931553 | 0 | [{"name": "📱 WWDC 2024", "slug": "-wwdc-2024", "groupId": "49de1328-c259-49f7-addf-87115e888927", "createdTime": 1713834266841}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1713834266837}, {"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1713... | ["-wwdc-2024", "ai", "apple", "llms", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718049230576 | 0.21 | brEHeVfwNxdHIZ0cF4B3JsNnU212 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6008215316564929 | lOdmOUvSdmwmbpo82Sxb | {"NO": 8391.833211390947, "YES": 241.04420249406874} | 1 | will-bitcoin-increase-in-may-2024 | 12238.29638572071 | Will Bitcoin increase in May 2024? | 1717214340000 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.557571953654644 | True | basic | YES | public | 1713834648799 | Athena | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If CoinGecko's historical data states that the closing price of Bitcoin on May 31st, 2024 is higher than the closing price on April 30th, 2024 ($60,749) then this question will resolve 'YES'.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.01872628513364627} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 61.8703028301578, "platformFee": 15.881000856924405, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717278220717 | 1000 | Athena | 1717214340000 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1645492882444 | 0 | [{"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1713834649103}, {"name": "🅱️ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "createdTime": 1713834649106}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 171383... | ["finance", "bitcoin", "world-default", "technology-default", "crypto-speculation"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717070350457 | 1716918276289 | 0.98 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2581029880824219 | f5u3gqdduCEhT6Cdl2Ul | {"NO": 1052.0636406796746, "YES": 796.9673039762292} | 0.3147173342790553 | metaculus-will-an-independent-revie | 1921.3801449281016 | [Metaculus] Will an independent review find UNRWA staff involvement in the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks? | 1735804740000 | PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.579195601950968 | False | basic | public | 1713834863190 | Mirror Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Will an independent review find UNRWA staff involvement in the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the original on M... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 0.06667263233088114} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 26.942718044059863, "platformFee": 20.388350344553693, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | mirrorbot | 1718780956975 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0 | 22 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1696426201173 | 0 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1713834863349}, {"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "groupId": "cea99c1c-afb9-49b2-adfa-9be739adce10", "createdTime": 1713834907492}, {"name": "UNRWA", "slug": "unrwa", "groupId": "0... | ["metaculus", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "unrwa"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718780513351 | 1718780955908 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
N8U2ibyStk7QxeNyB6iC | by-which-year-eoy-80-of-the-world-p | 20 | By which year (EOY) 80% of the world population will live in countries that completely ban single use plastic bags? | 1925002740000 | Tz41xTDNKjN48bgtH7Me4TYoTKQ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713835533173 | Leonardo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each December 31 of the years listedin the answers I'll ask the best available free version of chat gpt, or the next best publicly available alternative in case chat gpt is no longer available, on that day to:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "ordered... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.29647124726312746, "platformFee": 0.29647124726312746, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | LeonardoKr | 1714178803097 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpog6i--u15_WA_66nvBoZhXHAdY-Bksm1f9q8CmA=s96-c | 2 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "623c664e6ccb", "prob": 0.3749595491209771, "text": "2028", "index": 0, "poolNo": 37.81558993910447, "userId": "Tz41xTDNKjN48bgtH7Me4TYoTKQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 63.0368620860702, "textFts": "'2028':1", "contractId": "N8U2ibyStk7QxeNyB6iC", "createdTime": 1713835533173, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1662949684793 | 0 | [{"name": "Environment", "slug": "environment-243810591da2", "groupId": "b31ce04a-9c58-4318-988e-28474c7761f2", "createdTime": 1713835533384}] | ["environment-243810591da2"] | 0.25 | 1714178799828 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
lNHXsSWQTNcYfDp4RbBa | how-many-posts-will-be-published-to | 651.8387547022802 | How many posts will be published to the Astral Codex Ten Substack in May 2024? | 1717214340000 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | 8a53e45326f7 | public | 1713836024904 | Athena | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve to the total number of public posts published to the Astral Codex Ten Substack in the month of May 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve the question based on how many posts... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.892635807496601, "platformFee": 2.265031784032384, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717343871834 | 160 | Athena | 1717214340000 | 0 | 7 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "95152dcbfc67", "prob": 0.0004904919344177849, "text": "0-1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.31511460417254966, "userId": "IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 642.1309320297878, "textFts": "'-1':2 '0':1", "contractId": "lNHXsSWQTNcYfDp4RbBa", "resolverId": "IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2", "creat... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1645492882444 | 0 | [{"name": "Substack", "slug": "substack", "groupId": "c07a2dfd-2621-4d0b-afda-67ee89b8dd5d", "createdTime": 1713836025226}, {"name": "Scott Alexander", "slug": "scott-alexander", "groupId": "FeV6PWIm7Jv4bVJ1OXBC", "createdTime": 1713836025240}, {"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "groupId": "zn... | ["substack", "scott-alexander", "effective-altruism", "blogs", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 1717205735544 | 1714683859148 | {"8a53e45326f7": 100} | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6Wu7UffYCcBAJAG9SWUo | manifold-is-dead-long-live-manifold | 0 | Manifold is Dead, Long Live Manifold? | 1714943984701 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1713836077031 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714944001144 | strutheo | 1714943976869 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1713838922573}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1713838928844}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "gro... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-business-future", "manifold-users", "manifold-drama"] | 0.25 | ["3d5a8157ff7f"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MwF6Tr4oA4FRFnvYiZz9 | would-you-want-to-keep-playing-mani | 0 | Would you want to keep playing Manifold as it currently is still, after the Pivot changes happen? | 1714344861986 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1713836362882 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "New Pivot changes:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No managrams, No NAing, No Mana donations, no Bounties", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Creation costs going up", "type": "text"}]},... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714344900416 | strutheo | 1714344863585 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 1713847885778 | ["d3c4214021e3"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49541043847955596 | UuOfMjsBGV6ndmS886rM | {"NO": 133.9818495795999, "YES": 107.21240634373137} | 0.5509558843992132 | will-manifold-promptly-wire-all-the | 45 | Will Manifold promptly wire all the panic donations due to The Pivot? | 1735711140000 | g26yWuQJtWfjh12tJE4RArEzLi33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713836425620 | Logan Turner | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On Apr 22, 2024, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Manifold announced", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/A-New-Deal-for-Manifold-c6e9de8f08b549859c64afb3af1dd393", "class": "break-anywher... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7501756332218656, "platformFee": 0.7501756332218656, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | LoganTurner | 1716128598924 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxb6lOFoLQos2HX7enoLuYEiJqPW11HpUxAX9AsB8w=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1678562372458 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1713836425823}, {"name": "Pivot Predictions", "slug": "pivot-predictions", "groupId": "6iOdS5vCFUBWysZiBH1F", "createdTime": 1713836425862}, {"name": "Manifold Drama", "slug": "manifold-drama", "groupId": "srdbxZ... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "pivot-predictions", "manifold-drama", "manifold-for-charity"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716128595495 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.34965671772983425 | tDiuBd2GoRhccHsvERBl | {"NO": 588.818908817917, "YES": 2485.3001654244035} | 0.1129878364517606 | will-trump-nominate-a-woman-for-his | 3152.98842655782 | Will Trump nominate a woman for his VP pick? | 1722484740000 | wTpiBh1A7OYTQVFhZNFfZ9DwHI03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.833045241039802 | False | basic | public | 1713836885499 | Stefan XJ7 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Donald Trump name a woman to be his running mate (vice presidential selection) for the 2024 election?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES: his selection is a person who identifies as \"wo... | BINARY | {"day": 0.019688452861202355, "week": -0.03529967724593179, "month": -0.09309134854916674} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 54.65956421979242, "platformFee": 15.835062396312631, "liquidityFee": 0} | 45 | 1000 | StefanXJ7 | 1720185984598 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697084511068 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1713836885646}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1713836885651}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "g... | ["us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "donald-trump", "politics-default", "trump-vp"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720185981513 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4303540542122868 | zWuC3A5b97EEXtiHhtsm | {"NO": 946.4227575939173, "YES": 1900.648316955775} | 0.27335480088361636 | will-users-under-18-years-old-be-al | 4316.629448144202 | Will users under 18 years old be allowed to use Manifold throughout 2024? | 1735660740000 | 3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxPFexwI3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.878905881633575 | False | basic | public | 1713837351038 | Bohaska | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "A New Deal For Manifold", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/A-New-Deal-for-Manifold-c6e9de8f08b549859c64afb3af1dd393", "class": "break-anywhere hover:u... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 0.004638646282018044} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 52.448544002883935, "platformFee": 50.01186841697052, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1320 | bohaska | 1718466186670 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1692081472895 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1713837351200}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1713837351211}, {"name": "Pivot Predictions", "slug": "pivot-predictions"... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-business-future", "pivot-predictions", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718466183530 | 1713865122437 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5984747616573421 | qEdxBhuX2p0iFTP79GlM | {"NO": 215.74427520968524, "YES": 96.53082344828054} | 0.7691193745903174 | bruh | 143.98096412534167 | bruh | 24425013540000 | 3EmR4hlEOnMbCGvf9OVs06xidwh2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713837666912 | SlipperySloe | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "bruh", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.0213897002648813, "platformFee": 2.0213897002648813, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | SlipperySloe | 1717223481261 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL9TEW3ZhkaigGGIIbqjV1SPUlLoxYjFsM2bWTYBMfZNUI=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701510375108 | 0 | [{"name": "bruh", "slug": "bruh", "groupId": "8ecbc0ab-7fe0-4dc5-9c25-26f9c88c724b", "createdTime": 1713837667118}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1713837667170}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-9... | ["bruh", "manifold-6748e065087e", "nonpredictive"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | 1713861253143 | 1713861247529 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
m4E0Y124uzoQAkD5lRyz | do-you-prefer-if-they-separated-man | 0 | Do you prefer if they separated mana from real money entirely, and made two new currencies (Spice, Win Points)? | 1714943989222 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1713837983971 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714944001144 | strutheo | 1714943981160 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Mana", "slug": "mana", "groupId": "bL97jpIvPZgebZnTTgom", "createdTime": 1713837993170}, {"name": "💼 Business", "slug": "business", "groupId": "pmK8sntWL1SDkMm53UBR", "createdTime": 1713837996248}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 17... | ["mana", "business", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-users", "manifold-drama"] | 0.25 | ["4fa57927102a"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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E7sQynIfzw14Xvc7I67X | what-age-are-you | 0 | What age are you? | 3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxPFexwI3 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1713838421871 | Bohaska | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The upcoming changes to Manifold mean that users under 18 may not be able to use Manifold. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "So, what is the actual age distribution of Manifold?", "type": "text"}, {"type": ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | bohaska | 1713840225356 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1692081472895 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1713838422236}, {"name": "Manifold Surveys", "slug": "manifold-surveys", "groupId": "69c805e4-703a-4b16-b0e9-294bcc7338e6", "createdTime": 1713838422247}] | ["manifold-business-future", "manifold-surveys"] | 0.25 | 1713840224848 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | TPLNE39m4gV0ciTi55gs | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-the-trump-hush-money-trial-end | 0 | Will the trump hush money trial end within two weeks? | 1713849390601 | UBaBb0j8oUfmKLd9NJJdZMTZwL82 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570333339714667 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1713845062026 | Gensing Genis | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the active trial conclude with a verdict within two weeks of it’s opening arguments? Sentencing can be scheduled for after the trial. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713849390601 | 100 | GensingGenis | 1713849390601 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FGensingGenis%2FkyZO4H0aJ7.23%20PM?alt=media&token=763c2b7b-070a-452d-8b77-d0e5725cc6b0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1696833943680 | True | 0 | [{"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1713845062192}, {"name": "Trump indictment(s)", "slug": "trump-indictments", "groupId": "l8rzwticUu7jFUpOZnY2", "createdTime": 1713845062220}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqo... | ["donald-trump", "trump-indictments", "us-politics", "law-order", "trial-of-the-century"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0.5 | UBaBb0j8oUfmKLd9NJJdZMTZwL82 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5027972862632237 | zAHrop2v6Y7ysZoz0VZO | {"NO": 123.86720286856665, "YES": 116.27545782889449} | 0.5186007361283144 | will-at-least-one-state-that-enacte | 4 | Will at least one state that enacted the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact withdraw from it by EOY 2035? | 2082776340000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713850605540 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.220446049250313e-16, "week": -2.220446049250313e-16, "month": -2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.06639856571668178, "platformFee": 0.06639856571668178, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | StochasticParrot | 1713855623343 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | [{"name": "Voting reform", "slug": "voting-reform", "groupId": "4c0def48-7389-4cbb-a124-7c42cefae485", "createdTime": 1713850605767}, {"name": "United States", "slug": "united-states", "groupId": "5ba769e7-dd37-49d0-bdf2-9f1803f6872e", "createdTime": 1713850605766}, {"name": "Electoral College", "slug": "electoral-coll... | ["voting-reform", "united-states", "electoral-college"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713855615865 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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K1KOo8U5PFIx5bNT8S7o | is-protest-an-effective-means-of-pe | 0 | Is protest an effective means of petition? | 1714539540000 | yv3waCUZ4GWBrDznjtSkIF7QL1k2 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1713856565170 | Balasar | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vote YES if you believe open protest is an effective means of changing policy, in comparison to other means of petitioning the government such as calling your congressperson, etc. Vote NO if you believe open protest is comparatively ineffective at ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714539540961 | Balasar | 1713856565170 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1663640280350 | 0 | 0.25 | ["e53bc27d6da5"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4585606880147348 | d3gNKSkwFyIK7AXLhPG7 | {"NO": 18.210151583075458, "YES": 1526.847951266753} | 0 | will-rethink-priorities-go-over-30k | 1393.5815369132858 | Will Rethink Priorities go over $30k raised to charity on Manifold before May 2nd 2024? | 1714668099768 | XtJuqIcTwEa5WnmBtmypEKyjlfu1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1713856740395 | Henri Thunberg | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the value of Mana is likely to get deflated, ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/A-New-Deal-for-Manifold-c6e9de8f08b549859c64afb3af1dd393", "class"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.3667928232664748, "platformFee": 3.3667928232664748, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714668099768 | 140 | HenriThunberg | 1714668099768 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1665991918794 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifund", "slug": "manifund-5e8e6bc749f7", "groupId": "PNRBWI2ptI7nQfS7BXtU", "createdTime": 1713856740714}, {"name": "Charity", "slug": "charity", "groupId": "10d5fec2-4d96-4f07-ae53-c76e873ff275", "createdTime": 1713856740716}, {"name": "Manifold for Charity", "slug": "manifold-for-charity", "groupId": "H... | ["manifund-5e8e6bc749f7", "charity", "manifold-for-charity"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714668092262 | 1713858199029 | 0.01 | XtJuqIcTwEa5WnmBtmypEKyjlfu1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2XwdjCDNGExf5bi4Hdsh | after-the-pivot-is-implemented-what | 408.58787664637543 | What will Manifold's total mana purchases be in the month after the pivot is implemented and cash payouts enabled? | 1746144000000 | r4B7egayyXYPFEDLI5YGAB4NiG32 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713859200016 | JTX | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifold has announced their \"Pivot\", which is their intention to transform the website into a website with real cash prizes and real money betting: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/A-New-Deal-for-Manifold-c6e9de8... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.464912061923049, "platformFee": 5.464912061923049, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 415 | JTX | 1716111408516 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIWpw3Ji0_FKBH_hj2ajSiZIzdEesxe7nRROOtu1r8g=s96-c | 7 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "c7f9c8734608", "prob": 0.801853537091153, "text": "$5k or more", "color": "#e91e63", "index": 0, "poolNo": 79.26515173006446, "userId": "r4B7egayyXYPFEDLI5YGAB4NiG32", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 19.58725468022711, "textFts": "'5k':1", "contractId": "2XwdjCDNGExf5bi4Hdsh", "createdTime": 1713859200016, "probC... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1709796917854 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1713859200281}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1713859200289}, {"name": "Mana", "slug": "mana", "groupId"... | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-business-future", "mana", "manifold-6748e065087e", "pivot-predictions"] | 0.25 | 1716111405282 | 1715303733575 | False | old | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.48172285497319545 | ONsWjQ6NTl9KhY6y6Gny | {"NO": 86.99711031656955, "YES": 232.68166449595807} | 0.25789512991349545 | will-the-fire-salamander-salamandra | 95 | Will the Fire Salamander (Salamandra salamandra) become extinct in the current century? | 4102441140000 | OOuU1xDOeYXmwST8K8XFHi8dedJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713859938174 | Extinction Risk | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Fire Salamander, aka Common Fire Salamander is a species of salamander living in forests of central and southern Europe. This market will resolve YES if the Fire Salamander is declared extinct by the IUCN by 2100 or earlier, and NO if it is not... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.1591677520209207, "platformFee": 1.1591677520209207, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | ExtinctionRisk | 1716326373265 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1708510781928 | 0 | [{"name": "Animals", "slug": "animals", "groupId": "f1b6760b-1baa-46e4-ab4f-a70259273eba", "createdTime": 1713859938460}, {"name": "Biodiversity", "slug": "biodiversity", "groupId": "3721391e-74a0-4bca-9813-fe741dc4306e", "createdTime": 1713859938463}, {"name": "Environment", "slug": "environment-243810591da2", "groupI... | ["animals", "biodiversity", "environment-243810591da2", "extinction-risk", "zoology"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716326369835 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
KhZIo55TAgC7IxOKecO6 | lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-70 | 90 | [Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 70) | 1713995940000 | v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1713860791455 | komplexkonjugat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let's play Civ6!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Anyone can add instructions. Instructions can be composite, but are executed atomically (either fully or not at all). Upon mark... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5599799297599142, "platformFee": 0.5599799297599142, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713998707683 | 125 | komplexkonjugat | 1713999543445 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "8cd1d9d4b0d6", "prob": 0.5, "text": "NOP", "index": 0, "poolNo": 100, "userId": "v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 100, "textFts": "'nop':1", "contractId": "KhZIo55TAgC7IxOKecO6", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2", "createdTime": 1713860791455, "probChan... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1698548141721 | 0 | [{"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1713860791670}, {"name": "ManifoldPlaysCiv6", "slug": "manifoldplaysciv6", "groupId": "5fb3f729-faaa-425d-9c1b-c04c78abe1b4", "createdTime": 1713860791680}] | ["gaming", "manifoldplaysciv6"] | 0.25 | 1713995164875 | 1713999542741 | 0.95 | v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ryZQRqY6fWH9ixXVZHCi | when-will-sber-release-musicgenerat-8ee32fc76a21 | 211.39692372943264 | When will Sber release music-generating AI for general usage? | 1861909140000 | lUGDbuJVTpPyYsXTYXpd4139sE43 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713860964479 | Ender Ting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sber already has own LLM (GigaChat) and image generator (Kandinsky).", "type": "text"}]}]} | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.910706948699096, "platformFee": 4.910706948699096, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | AnT | 1715377246114 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcWkbPJnNa7oUkYFwveuKh1CoCbDrksUco-QNBP=s96-c | 3 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "ce63bd670efa", "prob": 0.03300182997031726, "text": "2024.25-2024.5", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.3830398797015273, "userId": "lUGDbuJVTpPyYsXTYXpd4139sE43", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 99.12763552055128, "textFts": "'-2024.5':2 '2024.25':1", "contractId": "ryZQRqY6fWH9ixXVZHCi", "createdTime": 1713860964479, "pr... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1686508617605 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1713860964796}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1713860964806}, {"name": "🎼 AI Music Generation", "slug": "-ai-music-generation", "groupId": "c8610201-a428-4504-... | ["technology-default", "ai", "-ai-music-generation"] | 0.25 | 1715377242635 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.268654934897357 | k6xUaCMbUou3EPDBQHSq | {"NO": 148.61627561539188, "YES": 619.4593012917015} | 0 | will-the-lk99-market-reach-10-befor | 433.89075111664465 | Will the LK-99 market reach 10% before May ? | 1714485540000 | HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1713863454818 | Odoacre | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Users will be able to donate their mana at the existing rate of M100 : $1 for the next week before it becomes M1000 : $1 as we switch over to the new system.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content":... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.680037071952451, "platformFee": 2.680037071952451, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714511665485 | 240 | Odoacre | 1714485540000 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOdoacre%2Fe8tDh301jg.avatar2?alt=media&token=79f05389-576e-437b-9be9-bda60b4cd21a | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1660254401272 | 0 | [{"name": "LK-99 Derivative Markets", "slug": "lk99-derivative-markets", "groupId": "a09db3d1-55e1-437b-9f99-df2cd218b2f4", "createdTime": 1713863455197}, {"name": "⚡ superconductivity", "slug": "superconductivity", "groupId": "885b1ec2-5cb4-488d-bde7-65bd30d5e3fa", "createdTime": 1713863455201}, {"name": "⚡ LK-99", "s... | ["lk99-derivative-markets", "superconductivity", "lk99", "manifold-for-charity"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714464996718 | 1713922859337 | 0.08 | HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5170727283314619 | Hlkyzc5VK0yxFe6iDBdY | {"NO": 821.7265952047842, "YES": 18.28646394817069} | 1 | will-the-sp-500-open-on-april-23rd | 712 | Will the S&P 500 open on April 23rd higher than its previous day close? | 1713880877212 | PKFboemYWtVwfxypZUazxAXr4rG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.679597248620203 | True | play | YES | public | 1713868984444 | RiskOptimization | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.4539464347705242} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.791004214011898, "platformFee": 2.791004214011898, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713880877212 | 120 | RiskOptimization | 1713880877212 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1705974765884 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713880865703 | 0.98 | PKFboemYWtVwfxypZUazxAXr4rG3 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6161369942048353 | ZYOa98rKdL4tSEelQl9u | {"NO": 89.30670198187318, "YES": 438.5171590789077} | 0 | will-zvi-cash-out-his-balance-this | 427 | Will Zvi cash out his balance this week? | 1714535940000 | WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1713869554518 | Zvi Mowshowitz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of creating this Zvi has M50,383.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Zvi uses M40k or more for donations before the change.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type":... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.196843797388174, "platformFee": 6.196843797388174, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714559641947 | 260 | ZviMowshowitz | 1714565421193 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1644001035848 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714513518407 | 1714565418935 | 0.25 | WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7142916956529879 | Bgkq24LNHQGlSI1cmB6n | {"NO": 1851.4063575262978, "YES": 768.330440537932} | 0.857637019812569 | will-zvi-still-actively-trade-on-ma | 2001.2553483301306 | Will Zvi still actively trade on Manifold after the changes? | 1725163140000 | WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.684983684852881 | False | basic | public | 1713869738569 | Zvi Mowshowitz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if Zvi trades on at least 10 days in each of May, June, July and August 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to NO if this does not happen.", "type": "text"}]}, {"typ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.007637019812569035} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 29.414846582891737, "platformFee": 10.212785358480213, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ZviMowshowitz | 1719247529873 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c | 33 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1644001035848 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1713869738707}] | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719247526746 | 1713907794468 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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JuuGIkQHODPiUrHnYNbu | how-many-active-users-will-manifold | 255.29429995442487 | How many active users will Manifold have at the end of June 2024? | 1719806340000 | Z9aZTIVJnUhuuq6utvNs9jSJiHu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | a207aac414b6 | public | 1713876379465 | Alyssa | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifold is currently planning its big pivot towards attempted real-money payouts for successful predictions. This will likely draw some new users in; it will also likely drive away some old users. Let's try to quantify how we expect those effects ... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.583412668983987, "platformFee": 2.261273910874902, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719850063800 | 180 | Tulip | 1719806340000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu_S1biLuCg60Z2_YY6AP1AB96QvecyAjv40j_2EHQ=s96-c | 9 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "ee456f8eb9e0", "prob": 0.0027549885611388185, "text": "500-600", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.7689273751716144, "userId": "Z9aZTIVJnUhuuq6utvNs9jSJiHu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 278.33472699853877, "textFts": "'-600':2 '500':1", "contractId": "JuuGIkQHODPiUrHnYNbu", "resolverId": "Z9aZTIVJnUhuuq6utvNs9jSJiHu2"... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1663717371895 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Drama", "slug": "manifold-drama", "groupId": "srdbxZea0H4L09GcXRMF", "createdTime": 1713876379804}, {"name": "Pivot Predictions", "slug": "pivot-predictions", "groupId": "6iOdS5vCFUBWysZiBH1F", "createdTime": 1713876379806}, {"name": "Manifold User Retention", "slug": "manifold-user-retention", "gro... | ["manifold-drama", "pivot-predictions", "manifold-user-retention", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-business-future"] | 0.25 | 1719771414361 | 1719846018529 | {"a207aac414b6": 100} | Z9aZTIVJnUhuuq6utvNs9jSJiHu2 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3802759844893662 | nPR7QBRVzprQujvzBp2k | {"NO": 924.4153240250363, "YES": 1081.4420679471427} | 0.3440570796623492 | will-inter-milan-win-the-202425-ser | 321.24428141135394 | Will Inter Milan win the 2024/25 Serie A? | 1748231940000 | n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.686730799357655 | False | basic | public | 1713876393067 | Universal FC ⚽ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.002930900375136547} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.657932585483566, "platformFee": 5.448683951943729, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | UniversalFC | 1718930283366 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1682429098149 | 0 | [{"name": "Serie A (Football)", "slug": "serie-a-football", "groupId": "786730b8-8cc1-4315-b141-8d60725c122d", "createdTime": 1713876393230}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1713876393237}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJy... | ["serie-a-football", "sports-default", "soccer", "italy"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718930280257 | 1713878826804 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.44070547130970045 | 34PEzytQvjcZ7hmh9d3g | {"NO": 128.08574047922738, "YES": 148.45436144441481} | 0.404710191407277 | will-ac-milan-win-the-202425-serie | 171.54402427178152 | Will AC Milan win the 2024/25 Serie A? | 1748231940000 | n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713876405077 | Universal FC ⚽ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 0.0017251535552377795} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.0092335546481457, "platformFee": 1.9923807291553657, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | UniversalFC | 1718046067737 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1682429098149 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1713876405245}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1713876405244}, {"name": "Italy", "slug": "italy", "groupId": "BCsrsF914J4E2LEn35fW", "createdTime": 1713876405242}... | ["sports-default", "soccer", "italy", "serie-a-football"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718046064402 | 0 |
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