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0.4928358255405024 | ZLxDSHRHEFtdrIQzcApi | {"NO": 41.67294903480959, "YES": 486.6887573840716} | 0 | will-an-active-1-bundesliga-player | 530 | Will an active male 1. Bundesliga player come out as homosexual / bi / queer (or similar) by the end of May 2025? | 1717192740000 | vcRnogNTojb2z8RejfxaYDwYs6B3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1713893132854 | A. Dings | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are reports that on May 17th, a group of people in German football will come out as gay (e.g. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://news.yahoo.com/former-footballer-urban-group-coming-095814146.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.184212774260422, "platformFee": 0.33878131548783635, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717196370946 | 140 | ADings | 1717192740000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKyQmiXuUz7vNTKFEGxzvoGhgYnrN03vcCFlsSwpc7SDg=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1709564544314 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1713893133356}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717173775250 | 1717196341805 | 0.08 | vcRnogNTojb2z8RejfxaYDwYs6B3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4813791317929379 | 1Tsn8wgr9NhTAlvo0W8F | {"NO": 145.76745205124004, "YES": 176.46621052049915} | 0.43397905876382126 | will-the-mattel-adventure-park-in-a | 17 | Will the Mattel Adventure Park in Arizona still be open in 2035? | 2051337540000 | Fz12fyQzT0cnfaSp2iOYvLsYmTi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713893183910 | Andrew Smith | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What sort of longevity will the park have? Resolves YES if it's open for even one day that year. Can resolve NO early if the park closes with revival unlikely. Like, if they tear stuff down or rebrand then it's probably not going to unrebrand.", "t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.26689473975044914, "platformFee": 0.26689473975044914, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | asmith | 1715184899014 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1672111268287 | 0 | [{"name": "Toys", "slug": "toys", "groupId": "3e57b3ce-7255-4534-9066-88fec2da8a02", "createdTime": 1713893184129}, {"name": "Mattel", "slug": "mattel", "groupId": "a4399909-1655-4d84-bd6e-ce0d94d2733e", "createdTime": 1713893184131}, {"name": "Theme Parks", "slug": "theme-parks", "groupId": "103f1fd1-ecde-486b-8ac8-c8... | ["toys", "mattel", "theme-parks", "barbie", "arizona"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715184895632 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8057018063379291 | IblnoGehlfm79495Ee1I | {"NO": 401.50258225171615, "YES": 1138.279201706745} | 0.5939359749915207 | will-llama-4-be-openweight | 1325.465966581712 | Will Llama 4 be fully open-weight? | 1767243540000 | 8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.708016977565297 | False | basic | public | 1713895017463 | Sss | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Zuck and LeCun release all model variants of Llama 4? Or will they at least hide the most powerful ones? ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.014267794166548664} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 29.281116100157718, "platformFee": 7.279405389482669, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Sss19971997 | 1719260474888 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJYstjF0shAAXTwqQnhiZPJhmg3XSDaVGD2Kttp_TCF=s96-c | 18 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1696879998283 | 0 | [{"name": "Llama 4", "slug": "llama-4", "groupId": "6ebd068a-d7b6-45f2-b2c1-2511f36e9415", "createdTime": 1713895017656}, {"name": "Meta (Facebook)", "slug": "meta-facebook", "groupId": "pOFiVhTtERxjJVbhKNiC", "createdTime": 1713895017666}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime... | ["llama-4", "meta-facebook", "ai", "llms"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719260471834 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
VdfYF4kVbC76xaGlMyZu | are-you-planning-on-donating-any-ma | 0 | Are you planning on donating any mana to charity in the next week? | 1714017540000 | dUL6yW0oWkfrUuUP0l626VZwmGf1 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1713895373598 | Nathan Scott ♠︎ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714017540937 | NathanScott | 1713895373598 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIAGS5y1BWJiRooeaAh0lbpnt5gZ7WNJyVkU8u2hu7Ssg8=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697591727848 | 0 | 0.25 | ["51d2bbdd625d", "50f1d2831e3e"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.40774550315526037 | Nmzfn9vcNB2duSh5Ys8M | {"NO": 210.5775451262702, "YES": 332.7051305458606} | 0.30349795519518014 | will-the-emergence-of-agi-and-the-i | 382.76050652152026 | Will AGI and the invasion of Taiwan occur within 12 months of one another? | 2840396340000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713895564494 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if the emergence of AGI and the invasion of Taiwan occur within 1 calendar year (12 months) of each other.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.06804792740842536, "week": 0.06804792740842536, "month": 0.06804792740842533} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.949237586988711, "platformFee": 3.48731246342449, "liquidityFee": 0} | 30 | 260 | RemNi | 1720164720196 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | [{"name": "TSMC", "slug": "tsmc", "groupId": "3d95eae6-cd8c-4096-b275-75904ceb3ebf", "createdTime": 1713895564698}, {"name": "AGI", "slug": "agi", "groupId": "3cbc32f4-d3ca-405d-882a-dcdb194eb74f", "createdTime": 1713895564701}, {"name": "⚔️ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 17138... | ["tsmc", "agi", "wars", "taiwan", "china"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720164716861 | 1713953990856 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5838321524471803 | 8E5xnf70pGtNxdeaZWR7 | {"NO": 261.49019384323793, "YES": 160.39725441832567} | 0.6957769695477545 | will-the-2024-farm-bill-place-new-l | 120 | Will the 2024 Farm Bill place new limits on THCa? | 1727755140000 | Fxsi2an7IoMsNLyq1ODqsXZIMqC3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713895667659 | Benjamin Manns | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The 2018 Farm Bill allows for the growing, processing, and sale of hemp and hemp-derived products that are 0.3% or less THC by weight. Currently, THCa concentration is not considered for the calculation, but is readily converted to THC by heating, ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0068937268413370445} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.7479649645996385, "platformFee": 1.6425549163636912, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | benmanns | 1717751803576 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKkghDuSf2qFv60YgKDe4sB83Qr5ah-gRmsZWJ4Y8cUS4oz=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1704664921240 | 0 | [{"name": "Cannabis", "slug": "cannabis", "groupId": "4d7535ea-5cd1-45fa-bc6c-8ad82bc06c74", "createdTime": 1713895667857}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1713895667887}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYg... | ["cannabis", "us-politics", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717751800434 | 1714193109480 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.46487380336651857 | EZsOGKJxfdCi7arupcvd | {"NO": 104.27664059141549, "YES": 401.07682460500166} | 0.18424581618266164 | will-the-us-nuclear-regulatory-comm-765f2360624 | 499.90152553239767 | Will the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission approve Oklo's license application for a nuclear reactor before January 2028? | 1830412740000 | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713895751127 | Kevin Burke | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The regulatory process is described here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://oklo.com/regulatory-maturity/default.aspx", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://oklo.com/regulatory-maturity/default.aspx", "class": "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.003503295322172778} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.085085468786188, "platformFee": 7.020825293166565, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | KevinBurke | 1718884372850 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668407142709 | 0 | [{"name": "Oklo", "slug": "oklo", "groupId": "977ccbe9-8994-4975-be4d-f65dd9e6fe44", "createdTime": 1713895751419}, {"name": "☢️ Nuclear", "slug": "nuclear", "groupId": "27a193db-f997-4533-86a6-386d9a915045", "createdTime": 1713895751384}, {"name": "Nuclear Power", "slug": "nuclear-power", "groupId": "GAhreYQjzbNxlucwU... | ["oklo", "nuclear", "nuclear-power", "energy", "sam-altman"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718884369720 | 1714114020474 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | xJDkSDz8lTKJvwu3zTxl | {"NO": 98.10366318442857, "YES": 101.93299287102711} | 0.49042843006349557 | will-shrek-be-added-to-dead-by-dayl | 2 | Will Shrek be added to Dead by Daylight by the end of 2029? | 1893452340000 | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713896000258 | Kongo Landwalker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes, if a skin Shrek or a playable character Shrek is added to the game. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Banners, NPC, decals, charms, environment easter eggs do not count.", "type":... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.033503564486442795, "platformFee": 0.033503564486442795, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | KongoLandwalker | 1716548930807 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1681038287526 | 0 | [{"name": "Dead by daylight", "slug": "dead-by-daylight", "groupId": "535ab3d6-7ef9-48d3-b813-6ffc69270c05", "createdTime": 1716548930807}] | ["dead-by-daylight"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714026219831 | 1714026255983 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3bS7bUl41KvpoSeJcZqa | how-much-mana-will-be-donated-befor-8948f747e991 | 1173.611581772277 | How much Mana will be donated before the pivot? | 1715842740000 | qNyAyreBy9QUeN5RwQSTSFIrLU12 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | 77d9bc4d5c9f | public | 1713896711655 | robm | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can donate Mana now, at $1/Ṁ100. After the pivot, Mana can be purchased for Ṁ1000/$1, and donated at $0.95/Ṁ1000. At least according to the announcement so far.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"tex... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.913469091682934, "platformFee": 16.913469091682934, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715907841739 | 160 | robm | 1715908014679 | 0 | 8 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "57ec6158e4f2", "prob": 0.0004115796048027106, "text": "180000-190000", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.2608141418138121, "userId": "qNyAyreBy9QUeN5RwQSTSFIrLU12", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 633.429822542753, "textFts": "'-190000':2 '180000':1", "contractId": "3bS7bUl41KvpoSeJcZqa", "resolverId": "qNyAyreBy9QUeN5RwQS... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1673486173688 | 0 | [{"name": "Mana", "slug": "mana", "groupId": "bL97jpIvPZgebZnTTgom", "createdTime": 1713896712318}, {"name": "Pivot Predictions", "slug": "pivot-predictions", "groupId": "6iOdS5vCFUBWysZiBH1F", "createdTime": 1713896712319}, {"name": "Manifold for Charity", "slug": "manifold-for-charity", "groupId": "HFlasvJJLTujevzme7... | ["mana", "pivot-predictions", "manifold-for-charity"] | 0.25 | 1715839382629 | 1715908013120 | {"77d9bc4d5c9f": 100} | qNyAyreBy9QUeN5RwQSTSFIrLU12 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
nqFgj7hIVEjn2tpjVoPC | good-pivot-bad-pivot-which-opinions | 37833.097533589 | Good Pivot / Bad Pivot? Which opinions will a majority of manifolders endorse about the plan for Manifold cash prizes? | 1714851484960 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1713896789082 | Joshua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market lists various opinions I've heard about the proposed ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Manifold Pivot.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/A-New-Deal-for-Manifold-c6e9de8f08b54... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 203.43239358531625, "platformFee": 203.43239358531625, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714928635798 | 18760 | Joshua | 1714851484960 | 0 | 95 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "5f71fe97195b", "prob": 0.22, "text": "I'm excited for post-pivot Manifold, if it works out as staff hopes", "index": 0, "poolNo": 211.95994155225486, "userId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 730.9372950838125, "textFts": "'excit':3 'hope':15 'm':2 'manifold':8 'pivot':7 'post':6 '... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1645516283433 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbahk6EJpQP9aKuZiX", "createdTime": 1713896789525}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1713896789538}] | ["manifold-users", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 1714847400683 | 1714851549367 | 0.5 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | False | new | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24370128131477553 | 2u3Tbrz2uwDaEJpsNPhJ | {"NO": 434.663911709441, "YES": 11604.113015724804} | 0 | will-srh-score-300-in-any-game-this | 10971.399881357165 | Will SRH score 300+ in any game this season? | 1716743268879 | cf8s0WtGwiXy3D57rrPWWV3qPZn2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.531801677816425 | True | basic | NO | public | 1713896946484 | P | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes - Sunrisers Hyderabad will score more than 300 runs in a single innings this season", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No - SRH score 300 or less runs in a single innings this season", "type"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 37.0299885009595, "platformFee": 5.857211618573937, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716743268879 | 1000 | P01cc7 | 1716743268879 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIHxLTEFxzgHTcnUu5FEzH-NhHUnNijL7v89k1XtwmBhQW1VQ=s96-c | 15 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1713372004444 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1713896946642}, {"name": "IPL yes", "slug": "ipl-yes", "groupId": "a7bb9e86-679a-4a2b-ae96-fd2ca517f7e3", "createdTime": 1713896946646}, {"name": "Cricket", "slug": "cricket", "groupId": "LcPYoqxSRdeQMms4lR3g", "createdT... | ["sports-default", "ipl-yes", "cricket", "ipl", "ipl2024"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716743056994 | 1716743092633 | 0.01 | cf8s0WtGwiXy3D57rrPWWV3qPZn2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7891749331730759 | MYzAMK0nBi10pXFtGbpd | {"NO": 952.622190612021, "YES": 984.4696771192348} | 0.7836516189606048 | will-jimmy-carter-live-to-see-the-p | 1093.3464936846638 | Will Jimmy Carter live to see the pivot? | 1735707540000 | s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.671246792962425 | False | basic | public | 1713898577913 | Quantum Gambler | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolving yes if Jimmy Carter is alive before we are able to actually cash out the new points on Manifold for the cash (new currency is official and live). Resolving no if Jimmy Carter has passed on before then or even if this pivot is canceled or ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.04051197597090572} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.594319916233626, "platformFee": 9.661155661281013, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Mirek | 1719616907995 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055 | 13 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1644464681678 | 0 | [{"name": "Longevity", "slug": "longevity", "groupId": "b8Ygbdfv5q2sQsZQGmkl", "createdTime": 1713898578086}, {"name": "Jimmy Carter", "slug": "jimmy-carter", "groupId": "rigfelwTsUUySMFFJz5O", "createdTime": 1713898578090}, {"name": "🪦 Death markets", "slug": "death-markets", "groupId": "ibrUJxhFICxDAsXYC7eB", "creat... | ["longevity", "jimmy-carter", "death-markets", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719616904897 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.7943041065611264 | DuZQME6RGhOYKGJU8kOb | {"NO": 2341.859655106623, "YES": 91.34543674407858} | 1 | will-a-cargo-ship-enter-or-leave-th | 2172.562109663505 | Will a cargo ship enter or leave the inner Port of Baltimore by May? (i.e. Key Bridge debris removed?) | 1714075587364 | lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.335879469182368 | True | play | YES | public | 1713907067045 | Bjorn | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Same criteria as the other market[1], but resolves YES whether or not the ship is a containership, as long as it is a cargo ship. (Bulk cargo, automotive cargo, container cargo, etc.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.07448205042627887} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.811068592604475, "platformFee": 3.811068592604475, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714075587364 | 220 | brp | 1714075604039 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtYDlRw1cr-LgN0-dvK5JVutQ9Uj0nUQlh6Ykz1A=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1652167878900 | 0 | [{"name": "Shipping", "slug": "shipping", "groupId": "SjhcRNwIiOeXXYR48zjO", "createdTime": 1713907067231}, {"name": "Francis Scott Key Bridge Disaster", "slug": "francis-scott-key-bridge-disaster", "groupId": "9e6054d0-501c-42fe-ad52-971baefba4e9", "createdTime": 1713907067233}] | ["shipping", "francis-scott-key-bridge-disaster"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714069911736 | 1714075603413 | 0.99 | lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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