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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.4724612618183979 | 8FuygwzWyq42wCr6Tb33 | {"NO": 1101.4189123600972, "YES": 13.837922921532595} | 1 | will-wa-police-officer-sarah-be-fou | 1098.6632887024068 | Will WA officer Nelson be found guilty of murder? | 1719763287013 | vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1713937088988 | Forrest Taylor | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/law-justice/wa-police-officer-who-has-killed-3-people-faces-murder-trial-for-one/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/law-justice/wa-pol... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.7052197654033121, "month": 0.6420809177270712} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.812525445397586, "platformFee": 0.5750571437824025, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719763287013 | 140 | TiredCliche | 1719763287013 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1683826070915 | 0 | [{"name": "Washington", "slug": "washington", "groupId": "65mkZewwuBvBCbJomsm9", "createdTime": 1713937089159}, {"name": "Law Enforcement", "slug": "law-enforcement", "groupId": "186a8847-0246-4974-9e1e-ea747d6faa92", "createdTime": 1713937089157}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4... | ["washington", "law-enforcement", "law-order", "law", "seattle"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719763257688 | 1713937666111 | 0.99 | vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.414420145725148 | gaFE0LGxOVWlErDw1G7M | {"NO": 162.46531606635082, "YES": 728.8736365658126} | 0 | shortfuse-will-my-coworker-trap-a-p | 461.3449104357562 | [short-fuse 💣] Will my co-worker trap a pigeon before May? | 1714546740000 | vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1713938226545 | Forrest Taylor | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My coworker has been attempting to capture a pigeon. Will they succeed before the end of the month? The pigeon apparently likes them and tries to eat out of their hand. So far, their methodology has been putting seeds in a box and coaxing the pigeo... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.602578521243508, "platformFee": 4.602578521243508, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714741372926 | 320 | TiredCliche | 1714546740000 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1683826070915 | 0 | [{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1713938226755}, {"name": "Birds", "slug": "birds", "groupId": "0af9af57-b49d-40f0-8179-0e42a9daf2bc", "createdTime": 1713938226746}, {"name": "Birding", "slug": "birding", "groupId": "GNWH4FFxajT2ssTqJ2kz", "... | ["effective-altruism", "birds", "birding", "animal-welfare"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714516229788 | 1714393408983 | 0.14 | vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10561655319968995 | exal3Aly2OloLREyvcf3 | {"NO": 207.67140261495715, "YES": 335.59968928167075} | 0.06809789336043284 | will-funny-anecdote-of-eliezer-from | 218 | Will "Funny Anecdote of Eliezer From His Sister" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713940187948 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.87333859047344, "platformFee": 0.87333859047344, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 220 | LessWrong | 1715227492015 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1713940188119}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1715227488601 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9446819962455575 | OyHlTs4YYD75VbxuzndJ | {"NO": 1727.324366394778, "YES": 281.78010348447407} | 1 | will-jimmy-carter-be-alive-at-the-e-a5d8317c4b6c | 3573.6085586244485 | Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on April 25? | 1714107540000 | ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.427549488412309 | True | play | YES | public | 1713941332791 | Jimmy Carter Death Markets | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Changes are coming to a Jimmy market near you. - Just a couple more things. All changes will be done by Mar 7 or so or later than that or never. Prob at some point. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.009999999999999898} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.977255123863166, "platformFee": 4.977255123863166, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714189587665 | 380 | JCDM | 1714107540000 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1703455433441 | 0 | [{"name": "Jimmy Carter Daily", "slug": "jimmy-carter-daily", "groupId": "19215cc1-e005-4008-80ba-e4df0c64d06f", "createdTime": 1713941332974}, {"name": "Jimmy Carter", "slug": "jimmy-carter", "groupId": "rigfelwTsUUySMFFJz5O", "createdTime": 1713941332984}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "enterta... | ["jimmy-carter-daily", "jimmy-carter", "entertainment", "longevity", "public-figures"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714098900092 | 0.99 | ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3010550150896747 | SlGYZ2wRbi4Ot2Rx5GtS | {"NO": 79.9493721413582, "YES": 1834.0157567740594} | 0 | will-roma-win-the-202324-europa-lea | 1794 | Will Roma win the 2023/24 Europa League? | 1715289911475 | Jxzs6NHitohaNLJ1AJkmt06uRw33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1713942884420 | TP King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.812375657921392, "platformFee": 5.812375657921392, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715289911475 | 220 | tpking | 1715289911475 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697442193885 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1713942884593}, {"name": "UEFA Champions League", "slug": "uefa-champions-league", "groupId": "jgZHnM9QIVaWt6OmPhm3", "createdTime": 1713942884588}, {"name": "Serie A (Football)", "slug": "serie-a-football", "groupId": "786... | ["football", "uefa-champions-league", "serie-a-football", "uefa", "soccer"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715289811812 | 0.02 | Jxzs6NHitohaNLJ1AJkmt06uRw33 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5044954823791183 | S7wmiMTMK18xTjX0QAj2 | {"NO": 2709.4160380722487, "YES": 28.226865703360545} | 1 | will-any-of-the-straw-hats-damage-t | 2607.672951680348 | Will any of the straw hats damage the gorosei in egghead? | 1714037935003 | CShiYwaR1JN6aGGVxqUGUUYcKYI3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.779891225820206 | True | play | YES | public | 1713945083236 | Ger D. Gar | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vote YES if you think any of the straw hats will damage the gorosei during egghead.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the damage is instantly healed, as previously seen. this will count as NO.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5025337468141609} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.326608498185609, "platformFee": 9.326608498185609, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714037935003 | 310 | Gergar | 1714038344502 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1709210946833 | 0 | [{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1713945083422}, {"name": "Anime", "slug": "anime", "groupId": "ZfknfjPrTvWkDaWMI98o", "createdTime": 1713945083419}, {"name": "🏴☠️ One Piece", "slug": "one-piece-stocks", "groupId": "uJSql24HUqpEpV... | ["entertainment", "anime", "one-piece-stocks", "2024-3d9da60b52f8", "manga"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714037924059 | 1714038343943 | 0.99 | CShiYwaR1JN6aGGVxqUGUUYcKYI3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3963400764558889 | evAJZkEY2ir8C5p7mMTc | {"NO": 289.4961085067344, "YES": 469.4395453466803} | 0 | will-fitch-or-moodys-lower-frances | 240.11238887542908 | Will Fitch or Moody's lower France's credit rating this Friday? | 1714168159553 | XYImv2WOg0UOFn2mSXLcgAmB60P2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.608425022479814 | True | play | NO | public | 1713945636422 | Jo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Both companies will update their ratings this week. This question will resolve to YES if either company lowers their rating for France. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.34522812894982385} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.2123377898515084, "platformFee": 3.2123377898515084, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714168159553 | 360 | Jo2e2b | 1714168159553 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKD3h_N3qLkkGKxsNVZ28DOkjO3JU2vGIUhg0b5eN6snqo=s96-c | 15 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1711143139948 | 0 | [{"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1713945636702}, {"name": "France", "slug": "france", "groupId": "HIanSY8KAqWjuDz9ruPs", "createdTime": 1713945636703}] | ["finance", "france"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714165227536 | 0.29 | XYImv2WOg0UOFn2mSXLcgAmB60P2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
og5gV3QltEbM6VOvCkC6 | when-will-the-bank-of-russia-start | 82 | When will the Bank of Russia start to lower its Key Rate? | 1735678740000 | yjJC1SJ9CRW4oZ57Bd6iVSa1Zog1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713947776981 | VL | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7991610606992016, "platformFee": 0.7991610606992016, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 235 | V_L | 1714494899354 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJO0HqLtPn54Ew5gH5OErAma_8RSz9MXnGCpXWxQtnM=s96-c | 4 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "4d3ab9cad852", "prob": 0.0475546864170785, "text": "April 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.986280089577324, "userId": "yjJC1SJ9CRW4oZ57Bd6iVSa1Zog1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 179.98100718812924, "textFts": "'2024':2 'april':1", "contractId": "og5gV3QltEbM6VOvCkC6", "createdTime": 1713947776981, "probChanges"... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1711359221179 | 0 | [{"name": "Central Banks", "slug": "central-banks", "groupId": "Vmf3Hz40CnpV62j2nxJI", "createdTime": 1713947777474}, {"name": "Monetary Policy", "slug": "monetary-policy", "groupId": "oJ2sEwn985io95dLwJhp", "createdTime": 1713947777471}, {"name": "🇷🇺 Russia", "slug": "russia", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "cre... | ["central-banks", "monetary-policy", "russia"] | 0.25 | 1714494896050 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5923132653104527 | riXc5VW3hidCxTRUQqzl | {"NO": 1244.3652988816705, "YES": 842.6755046051161} | 0.6820774708966297 | will-luffy-get-another-devil-fruit | 1817.644219575346 | Will Luffy get another devil fruit upgrade after gear 5? | 1735685940000 | CShiYwaR1JN6aGGVxqUGUUYcKYI3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.766197949455377 | False | basic | public | 1713949028069 | Ger D. Gar | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vote YES if you think luffy will unlock a new variant of an already existing gear or a new gear.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vote NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.02122380317111361} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 43.25931704674746, "platformFee": 9.231271957652698, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Gergar | 1719323608843 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1709210946833 | 0 | [{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1713949028210}, {"name": "One piece theories", "slug": "one-piece-theories", "groupId": "78f2f6a8-571e-44b4-976c-937610a9375b", "createdTime": 1713949028209}, {"name": "Manga", "slug": "manga", "grou... | ["entertainment", "one-piece-theories", "manga", "anime", "one-piece-stocks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719323605770 | 1718658276541 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
xN05uUtF3t3bICVxo5Fb | which-new-generation-of-apple-produ | 498.1050847956663 | Which new generation of Apple products will be announced during the Apple Event on the 7th of May, 2024? | 1715090340000 | wgMBQd06kLbT8Ce73b0oUelZwfQ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1713950096623 | Sky Velleity | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If new versions of any of the listed products are announced during, or made available on the day of, the upcoming Apple Event, they will be resolved to yes.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.6506956590319035, "platformFee": 4.6506956590319035, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715097239219 | 405 | SkyVelleity | 1715090340000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJu7ngEUVYGJZmNny19ak2sEtKswe2Fy7DdHZgARBfv=s96-c | 9 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "8a89c2075889", "prob": 0.33, "text": "iPad (not mini/Air/Pro)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 51.88242197555639, "userId": "wgMBQd06kLbT8Ce73b0oUelZwfQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 106.97386933403999, "textFts": "'ipad':1 'mini/air/pro':3", "contractId": "xN05uUtF3t3bICVxo5Fb", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "wg... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697643860978 | 0 | [{"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1713950096922}, {"name": "iPhone", "slug": "iphone", "groupId": "d65113e9-fafc-47b4-882f-87219e778441", "createdTime": 1713950096925}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "cre... | ["apple", "iphone", "technology-default", "-wwdc-2024", "-ipad"] | 0.25 | 1715090262591 | 0.17 | wgMBQd06kLbT8Ce73b0oUelZwfQ2 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7y6IwmQXCjT6C7xLywzU | will-calibration-be-reset-with-the | 0 | Will calibration be reset with the pivot? | 1735685940000 | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1713952179172 | Kongo Landwalker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vote for your confidence.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Change of the mana value would significantly skew the weights of newly filled bins. Usage of the same statistics when both rules and p... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | KongoLandwalker | 1713952247120 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1681038287526 | 0 | 0.25 | 1713952245375 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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RVlkGunVMTKSNwplgp4o | which-hypothetical-profitable-versi | 0 | Which hypothetical profitable version of Manifold would you prefer to use? | 1716591540000 | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1713968802545 | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716591540501 | TheAllMemeingEye | 1714040320781 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | 29 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1704035290346 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1713968802694}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1713968802697}, {"name": "Pivot Predictions", "slug": "pivot-predictions",... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "pivot-predictions", "manifold-business-future"] | 0.25 | 1714040320315 | ["df6f131cd1ba"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
efO1uviScbgR4RuTr9mM | what-are-you-more-excited-about-spa | 0 | What are you more excited about - SpaceX Starship or progress in AI? | 1714600740000 | cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1713969675323 | lukres | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714600740548 | lukres | 1714351810639 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Flukres%2Fj1m8DGNy5T.12?alt=media&token=fc58ce31-3de5-4d8d-bf45-abb061ee29a2 | 97 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690889308481 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1713969675743}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1713969675744}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1713969675... | ["technology-default", "ai", "space"] | 0.25 | 1714351809068 | ["3d5cc31816cc"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7Ln2dvIzM9pFnmSu5TZC | asian-stock-nifty-3-how-will-each-o-83906da29851 | 1605.7265244831356 | Asian Stock (Nifty + 3): How Will Each Of The Indian Indices Close On April 25 Compared To Its Close On April 24? | 1714043214567 | kdGYA9EW5ecVYSsswFGv2L1Hxze2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1713969894442 | Grey Box | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Information:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The markets are open from 5.50 am - 4.30 pm IST (different time fo... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.200406689352475, "platformFee": 4.200406689352475, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714043214567 | 380 | GreyBox | 1714043214567 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcgcLF6_hQzuAGLru0yBQSqgd02HTNIqX1dO_RW6M3v=s96-c | 6 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "420c800bacde", "prob": 0.99, "text": "Nifty - NIFTY_50: Higher", "index": 0, "poolNo": 416.1977340133948, "userId": "kdGYA9EW5ecVYSsswFGv2L1Hxze2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.204017515286801, "textFts": "'50':3 'higher':4 'nifti':1,2", "contractId": "7Ln2dvIzM9pFnmSu5TZC", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId"... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1692725309128 | 0 | [{"name": "Stock Market-Daily", "slug": "stock-marketdaily", "groupId": "fb5495b0-7695-4ff4-92f1-4357551d8536", "createdTime": 1713969894642}, {"name": "Asia", "slug": "asia", "groupId": "bPTxMZhUYsIUXsWT969d", "createdTime": 1713969894658}, {"name": "🇮🇳 India", "slug": "india", "groupId": "Y2J00UcVhr3wKq2lAOAy", "cr... | ["stock-marketdaily", "asia", "india", "stocks", "nifty"] | 0.25 | 1714039104663 | 0.99 | kdGYA9EW5ecVYSsswFGv2L1Hxze2 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.29372524224065977 | 58Kmm0Ur83bjx5peqFoz | {"NO": 2181.0298031046955, "YES": 2503.3212271898165} | 0.26596719519121437 | did-the-idf-bury-hundreds-of-palest | 5189.351018896829 | Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals? | 1735707540000 | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.086972191464929 | False | basic | public | 1713969960194 | Panfilo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve Yes if the story is confirmed that 100 or more total bodies were discovered buried in the area, and the bodies are generally in line with the descriptions in this article from UN News: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.011853953163371622} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 67.52415079742043, "platformFee": 51.20051809721669, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2310 | Panfilo | 1718604975896 | 0 | 57 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1695066009476 | 0 | [{"name": "Information war", "slug": "information-war", "groupId": "cf0a2667-a795-4b9a-82e9-70c775a99e8b", "createdTime": 1713969960342}, {"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1713969960354}, {"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2... | ["information-war", "israel", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "wars", "arabisraeli-conflict"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718604972841 | 1715482350493 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2Scu1rt2ixylAsmzGDES | what-video-games-or-video-game-worl | 974 | What Video Games or Video Game World will be Adapted into a TV series or Movie by 2040? (ADD ANSWERS) | 2240715540000 | mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713971330814 | Stop Punting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Added answers should be the generic video game series if there are multiple titles in the series. Do not add previous video game universes that have been adapted into released movies or tv shows, they will resolve as \"N/A\".", "type": "text"}]}, {... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.18895115819332, "platformFee": 8.18895115819332, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1330 | StopPunting | 1715860248499 | 0 | 10 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3816297fefc1", "prob": 0.794064682736073, "text": "The Legend of Zelda", "index": 0, "poolNo": 144.15546435477262, "userId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 37.38574694562499, "textFts": "'legend':2 'zelda':4", "contractId": "2Scu1rt2ixylAsmzGDES", "createdTime": 1713971330814, "pr... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668545009927 | 0 | [{"name": "🎥 Movies", "slug": "movies", "groupId": "KSeNIu7AWgiBBM5FqVuB", "createdTime": 1713971331147}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1713971331150}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "created... | ["movies", "fun", "entertainment", "video-games", "tv"] | 0.25 | 1715860245179 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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MuBlFzUXR9GwKR1Nsz1P | bulls-vs-bears-which-chicago-profes | 30 | Bulls vs Bears - Which Chicago professional sports teams (NFL, NBA) will accomplish different feats first? | 32503784340000 | mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713971954707 | Stop Punting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Play-in tournament does not count as a league championship.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Add your own Bears vs Bulls answers, they must be feats that could feasibly accomplished by both tea... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.42707032728144967, "platformFee": 0.42707032728144967, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 210 | StopPunting | 1714482940586 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e049134370ce", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Chicago Bears win their division before the Chicago Bulls", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25, "userId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25, "textFts": "'bear':2 'bull':9 'chicago':1,8 'divis':5 'win':3", "contractId": "MuBlFzUXR9GwKR1Nsz1P", "createdTim... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668545009927 | 0 | [{"name": "🏈 NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1713971954992}, {"name": "Chicago Bears", "slug": "chicago-bears", "groupId": "446b1027-2f4a-4c75-8ec7-36cc12549894", "createdTime": 1713971954994}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime": 17139... | ["nfl", "chicago-bears", "nba", "chicago-bulls", "sports-default"] | 0.25 | 1714482937328 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.6165081557836245 | YPXRzJ7OyFo2nEJVh2I1 | {"NO": 3243.4949294146595, "YES": 460.4184167400165} | 0.9188649590512609 | will-tiktok-be-downloadable-on-the | 2928.1749785555917 | Will TikTok be downloadable on the Apple iOS app store at the end of June 2025? | 1751342340000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.00006022917282 | False | basic | public | 1713974802968 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "in the usa", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.208027178846812} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 36.0157011229032, "platformFee": 12.661914270180063, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1719275957188 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "TikTok", "slug": "tiktok", "groupId": "MjTB5PFWedvqLHXO0vKz", "createdTime": 1713974803150}, {"name": "🌐 Internet", "slug": "internet", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1713974803153}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1713... | ["tiktok", "internet", "us-politics", "tiktok-ban", "apple"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719275954080 | 1718942922701 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Drp8r1Fj8MjybCIf7MAn | could-you-unarmed-beat-an-anthill-i | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat an anthill in a fight? | 1715554740000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1713975652434 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-thin... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715554740556 | gregrosent | 1714087657799 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "Human Limits", "slug": "human-limits", "groupId": "776c47e1-af58-4422-b6eb-2c7ac955c843", "createdTime": 1713975652907}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1713975652910}, {"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId": "RCGUqqLvrrs1ievZIxDE", "createdTime... | ["human-limits", "fun", "fighting", "manifold-surveys"] | 0.25 | ["e0007e664b66"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
v1ZgeIin2KePKLEdnNdg | could-you-unarmed-beat-a-house-cat | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat a house cat in a fight? | 1715554740000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1713975766115 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-thin... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715554740556 | gregrosent | 1714087649957 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "Human Limits", "slug": "human-limits", "groupId": "776c47e1-af58-4422-b6eb-2c7ac955c843", "createdTime": 1713975766300}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1713975766305}, {"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId": "RCGUqqLvrrs1ievZIxDE", "createdTime... | ["human-limits", "fun", "fighting", "manifold-surveys"] | 0.25 | ["3c3c48d618e8"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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LNjG8sWmIP0wPeDy96W0 | could-you-unarmed-beat-a-clone-of-y | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat a clone of yourself with half your reaction time but only half your strength in a fight? | 1715554740000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1713975958263 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-thin... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715554740557 | gregrosent | 1714087790539 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "Human Limits", "slug": "human-limits", "groupId": "776c47e1-af58-4422-b6eb-2c7ac955c843", "createdTime": 1713975958444}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1713975958448}, {"name": "Manifold Surveys", "slug": "manifold-surveys", "groupId": "69c805e4-703a-4b16-... | ["human-limits", "fun", "manifold-surveys", "fighting"] | 0.25 | ["e35bf8590b41"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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SqnbZTorxyJBCYo4um1t | could-you-beat-a-clone-of-yourself | 0 | Could you beat a clone of yourself which can read your mind but misses their nondominant arm in a fight? | 1715554740000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1713976162035 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(You're both unarmed.)", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715554740556 | gregrosent | 1714087768159 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "Human Limits", "slug": "human-limits", "groupId": "776c47e1-af58-4422-b6eb-2c7ac955c843", "createdTime": 1713976162208}, {"name": "Manifold Surveys", "slug": "manifold-surveys", "groupId": "69c805e4-703a-4b16-b0e9-294bcc7338e6", "createdTime": 1713976162212}, {"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId... | ["human-limits", "manifold-surveys", "fighting", "fun"] | 0.25 | ["6190d66fe1fa"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
O7zCVYby8AsLxAFfHTnt | could-you-beat-a-disney-employee-in | 0 | Could you beat a Disney employee in Goofy costume next to the pretzel cart at the entrance to Splash Mountain in a fight | 1715554740000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1713976317237 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(You're unarmed.) Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-m... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715554740557 | gregrosent | 1714087755834 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "Human Limits", "slug": "human-limits", "groupId": "776c47e1-af58-4422-b6eb-2c7ac955c843", "createdTime": 1713976317436}, {"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId": "RCGUqqLvrrs1ievZIxDE", "createdTime": 1713976317439}, {"name": "Manifold Surveys", "slug": "manifold-surveys", "groupId": "69c805e4-703... | ["human-limits", "fighting", "manifold-surveys", "fun"] | 0.25 | 1714018458855 | ["c7e78dac8512"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
sxAElI0gowvmfCAAxwll | could-you-unarmed-beat-another-rand | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat another randomly selected animal (could be a leech, could be a blue whale) in a fight? | 1715554740000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1713976452726 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-thin... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715554740556 | gregrosent | 1714775138250 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Surveys", "slug": "manifold-surveys", "groupId": "69c805e4-703a-4b16-b0e9-294bcc7338e6", "createdTime": 1713976452919}, {"name": "Human Limits", "slug": "human-limits", "groupId": "776c47e1-af58-4422-b6eb-2c7ac955c843", "createdTime": 1713976452925}, {"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId... | ["manifold-surveys", "human-limits", "fighting", "fun"] | 0.25 | 1714775136748 | ["3d4cc2150835"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5rAVGWpDsEBJ45NtDuD3 | could-you-unarmed-beat-a-pterodacty | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat a pterodactyl in a fight? | 1715554740000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1713976582257 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-thin... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715554740557 | gregrosent | 1714387912541 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "Human Limits", "slug": "human-limits", "groupId": "776c47e1-af58-4422-b6eb-2c7ac955c843", "createdTime": 1713976582417}, {"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId": "RCGUqqLvrrs1ievZIxDE", "createdTime": 1713976582435}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime... | ["human-limits", "fighting", "fun", "manifold-surveys"] | 0.25 | 1714387910829 | ["009a2a6e1ca7"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0ZKXuYejU9mjKgnevEJg | could-you-unarmed-beat-an-eagle-in | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat an eagle in a fight? | 1715554740000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1713976710748 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-thin... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715554740556 | gregrosent | 1714087598562 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId": "RCGUqqLvrrs1ievZIxDE", "createdTime": 1713976710921}, {"name": "Manifold Surveys", "slug": "manifold-surveys", "groupId": "69c805e4-703a-4b16-b0e9-294bcc7338e6", "createdTime": 1713976710924}, {"name": "Human Limits", "slug": "human-limits", "groupId": "776c47e1-af5... | ["fighting", "manifold-surveys", "human-limits", "fun"] | 0.25 | ["20ada03c2322"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
wuwOAfCOEtIfSWjFXRZY | could-you-unarmed-beat-a-goat-in-a | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat a goat in a fight? | 1715554740000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1713976794906 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-thin... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715554740557 | gregrosent | 1714087587078 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId": "RCGUqqLvrrs1ievZIxDE", "createdTime": 1713976795091}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1713976795094}, {"name": "Human Limits", "slug": "human-limits", "groupId": "776c47e1-af58-4422-b6eb-2c7ac955c843", "createdTime... | ["fighting", "fun", "human-limits", "manifold-surveys"] | 0.25 | ["bee53db20e92"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
u7swsiTUdczuRBi90idL | could-you-unarmed-beat-a-medium-dog | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat a medium dog in a fight? | 1715554740000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1713976843770 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-thin... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715554740556 | gregrosent | 1714742360884 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1713976844095}, {"name": "Human Limits", "slug": "human-limits", "groupId": "776c47e1-af58-4422-b6eb-2c7ac955c843", "createdTime": 1713976844106}, {"name": "Manifold Surveys", "slug": "manifold-surveys", "groupId": "69c805e4-703a-4b16-... | ["fun", "human-limits", "manifold-surveys", "fighting"] | 0.25 | 1714742359605 | ["79a60a077a04"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6INh77YL1HoMX2Hdx2Sl | could-you-unarmed-beat-another-rand-f79abf711cac | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat another randomly selected same sex (i.e. assigned at birth) human in a fight? | 1715554740000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1713976893661 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-thin... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715554740557 | gregrosent | 1714087743337 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Surveys", "slug": "manifold-surveys", "groupId": "69c805e4-703a-4b16-b0e9-294bcc7338e6", "createdTime": 1713976893859}, {"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId": "RCGUqqLvrrs1ievZIxDE", "createdTime": 1713976893864}, {"name": "Human Limits", "slug": "human-limits", "groupId": "776c47e1-af5... | ["manifold-surveys", "fighting", "human-limits", "fun"] | 0.25 | ["27029bdd9a4f"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6374928369549355 | OEk0PwSBYDOFTQCiW52x | {"NO": 235.28863412756886, "YES": 297.02803939416424} | 0.5821207181547328 | will-global-approval-of-the-us-decl-19a6ff98464a | 200 | Will global approval of the US decline in 2024, according to Gallup? | 1746082740000 | GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713976922547 | cshunter | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Gallup polls residents from over 130 countries around the world on their opinion of United States leadership, releasing a report in April the following year. The last Rating World Leaders report showed no change in global approval of the US between... | BINARY | {"day": -2.220446049250313e-16, "week": -2.220446049250313e-16, "month": -2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.175731556555304, "platformFee": 3.175731556555304, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 280 | cash | 1714242280061 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1669744545591 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1713976922708}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1713976922711}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7... | ["politics-default", "us-politics", "the-life-of-biden", "world-default", "public-opinion"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714242276739 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
QexuIpn6qtjhowXrqobR | could-you-unarmed-beat-richard-hana | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat Richard Hanania in a fight? | 1715554740000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1713976950168 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-thin... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715554740557 | gregrosent | 1714087576653 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Surveys", "slug": "manifold-surveys", "groupId": "69c805e4-703a-4b16-b0e9-294bcc7338e6", "createdTime": 1713976950349}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1713976950342}, {"name": "Human Limits", "slug": "human-limits", "groupId": "776c47e1-af58-4422-... | ["manifold-surveys", "fun", "human-limits", "fighting"] | 0.25 | ["a6f7a6abc27b"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
P1690udEFTMQ0Nq1Rxqa | could-you-unarmed-beat-another-rand-30fa8092a9f9 | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat another randomly selected Manifold user in a fight? | 1715554740000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1713977007306 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-thin... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715554740556 | gregrosent | 1714087516877 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1713977007476}, {"name": "Human Limits", "slug": "human-limits", "groupId": "776c47e1-af58-4422-b6eb-2c7ac955c843", "createdTime": 1713977007480}, {"name": "Manifold Surveys", "slug": "manifold-surveys", "groupId": "69c805e4-703a-4b16-... | ["fun", "human-limits", "manifold-surveys", "fighting"] | 0.25 | ["6a9153e37002"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.42003008115723084 | av9BJaMxtcfylj4EogkF | {"NO": 923.6929705423039, "YES": 1090.872046993004} | 0.380128493499846 | will-global-approval-of-russia-decl-0aa92b67467e | 195 | Will global approval of Russia decline in 2024, according to Gallup? | 1746082740000 | GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.773425731819504 | False | basic | public | 1713977043643 | cshunter | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Gallup polls residents from over 130 countries around the world on their opinion of Russia's leadership, releasing a report in April the following year. The last Rating World Leaders report showed an increase in global approval between 2022 and 202... | BINARY | {"day": 6.661338147750939e-16, "week": 6.661338147750939e-16, "month": 6.661338147750939e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.143914474346757, "platformFee": 3.143914474346757, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | cash | 1714378385324 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1669744545591 | 0 | [{"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1713977043964}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1713977043961}, {"name": "Asia", "slug": "asia", "groupId": "bPTxMZhUYsIUXsWT969d", "createdTime": 17139... | ["world-default", "politics-default", "asia", "vladimir-putin", "russia"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714378381930 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
b6lRMJV75hGDfW53XQrs | could-you-unarmed-beat-a-large-dog | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat a large dog in a fight? | 1715554740000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1713977070833 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-thin... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715554740556 | gregrosent | 1714087509051 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1713977070988}, {"name": "Human Limits", "slug": "human-limits", "groupId": "776c47e1-af58-4422-b6eb-2c7ac955c843", "createdTime": 1713977070999}, {"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId": "RCGUqqLvrrs1ievZIxDE", "createdTime... | ["fun", "human-limits", "fighting", "manifold-surveys"] | 0.25 | ["b249aa57a94f"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3nVTirxfzBYumEqFmUdp | could-you-unarmed-beat-scp4739-alas | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat SCP-4739 (Alaster Grey) in a fight? | 1715554740000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1713977122727 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-thin... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715554740556 | gregrosent | 1714087502353 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1713977122908}, {"name": "Manifold Surveys", "slug": "manifold-surveys", "groupId": "69c805e4-703a-4b16-b0e9-294bcc7338e6", "createdTime": 1713977122906}, {"name": "Human Limits", "slug": "human-limits", "groupId": "776c47e1-af58-4422-... | ["fun", "manifold-surveys", "human-limits", "fighting"] | 0.25 | ["0044227bd3e3", "919110de155e"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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MPXHD6d75tvnGYkgC4Ge | could-you-unarmed-beat-a-bullet-ant | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat a bullet anthill in a fight? | 1715554740000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1713978046791 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-thin... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715554740557 | gregrosent | 1714537454656 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Surveys", "slug": "manifold-surveys", "groupId": "69c805e4-703a-4b16-b0e9-294bcc7338e6", "createdTime": 1713978047088}, {"name": "Human Limits", "slug": "human-limits", "groupId": "776c47e1-af58-4422-b6eb-2c7ac955c843", "createdTime": 1713978047092}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBw... | ["manifold-surveys", "human-limits", "fun", "fighting"] | 0.25 | 1714537453232 | ["1f6862e56ca0"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4972441101696454 | qabinB1O2Y2WHgC4w9eN | {"NO": 102.04651454915256, "YES": 9991.848739281451} | 0 | will-i-be-in-black-mop-2024 | 9476.077903126894 | Will I be in black MOP 2024? | 1717466436430 | 3oukOT538uNC2icQRCn9fkuWVKG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.869968132646893 | True | basic | NO | public | 1713978097272 | Pseudonymous Bosch | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Black MOP is the highest level and should be the imo team plus around 6 others. I will not give any information (e.g. scores) that is not public. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Information I... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 59.92075463783481, "platformFee": 4.9817810136275265, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717466436430 | 1000 | PseudonymousBosche24f | 1717466436430 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL3CX9YCbowSku9aiQ7U_aAzcGuk026jr6hZNTRmkhp8w=s96-c | 16 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1706744508044 | 0 | [{"name": "Competition Math", "slug": "competition-math", "groupId": "64e0006d-606d-4e68-ad95-045c341bb9d1", "createdTime": 1713978097606}] | ["competition-math"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717466325381 | 0.01 | 3oukOT538uNC2icQRCn9fkuWVKG2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
uCsnnIJ6nTtTWpRzV0id | could-you-unarmed-beat-a-crocodile | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat a crocodile in a fight? | 1715554740000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1713978140273 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-thin... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715554740556 | gregrosent | 1714087410739 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1713978140456}, {"name": "Manifold Surveys", "slug": "manifold-surveys", "groupId": "69c805e4-703a-4b16-b0e9-294bcc7338e6", "createdTime": 1713978140462}, {"name": "Human Limits", "slug": "human-limits", "groupId": "776c47e1-af58-4422-... | ["fun", "manifold-surveys", "human-limits", "fighting"] | 0.25 | ["0b3cccdb3951"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
xp3nnKwIbOVecBzpP3Rg | could-you-unarmed-beat-king-kong-in | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat King Kong in a fight, if you were scaled up to match its weight? | 1715554740000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1713978207508 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-thin... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715554740557 | gregrosent | 1714087397327 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Surveys", "slug": "manifold-surveys", "groupId": "69c805e4-703a-4b16-b0e9-294bcc7338e6", "createdTime": 1713978207667}, {"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId": "RCGUqqLvrrs1ievZIxDE", "createdTime": 1713978207664}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "cre... | ["manifold-surveys", "fighting", "fun", "human-limits"] | 0.25 | ["e0aa01e36014"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Bklw83NyuaZmu5q35Vkf | could-you-unarmed-beat-godzilla-in | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat Godzilla in a fight, if it were scaled down to match your weight? | 1715554740000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1713978268729 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-thin... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715554740557 | gregrosent | 1714087374017 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId": "RCGUqqLvrrs1ievZIxDE", "createdTime": 1713978268893}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1713978268896}, {"name": "Manifold Surveys", "slug": "manifold-surveys", "groupId": "69c805e4-703a-4b16-b0e9-294bcc7338e6", "cre... | ["fighting", "fun", "manifold-surveys", "human-limits"] | 0.25 | ["e1a6fb9613cf"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GCPEKV6rvLwZCr51enCo | could-you-unarmed-beat-a-cow-in-a-f | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat a cow in a fight? | 1715554740000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1713978313665 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-thin... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715554740556 | gregrosent | 1714087360754 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1713978313860}, {"name": "Manifold Surveys", "slug": "manifold-surveys", "groupId": "69c805e4-703a-4b16-b0e9-294bcc7338e6", "createdTime": 1713978313896}, {"name": "Human Limits", "slug": "human-limits", "groupId": "776c47e1-af58-4422-... | ["fun", "manifold-surveys", "human-limits", "fighting"] | 0.25 | ["e0d0bb335fff"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
CPhPRGjZjhjE8IK650Hh | could-you-unarmed-beat-a-paperclipm | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat a paperclip-maximizing AGI in a fight? | 1715554740000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1713978385398 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-thin... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715554740556 | gregrosent | 1714087350041 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Surveys", "slug": "manifold-surveys", "groupId": "69c805e4-703a-4b16-b0e9-294bcc7338e6", "createdTime": 1713978385595}, {"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId": "RCGUqqLvrrs1ievZIxDE", "createdTime": 1713978385596}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "cre... | ["manifold-surveys", "fighting", "fun", "human-limits"] | 0.25 | ["8abd143db24c"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
UhDzQHn2Vt4VKP1PvKi2 | could-you-unarmed-beat-a-clone-of-y-327f012ebca9 | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat a clone of yourself with twice your reaction time but also twice your strength in a fight? | 1715554740000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1713978499807 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-thin... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715554740557 | gregrosent | 1714087334575 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId": "RCGUqqLvrrs1ievZIxDE", "createdTime": 1713978500379}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1713978500383}, {"name": "Manifold Surveys", "slug": "manifold-surveys", "groupId": "69c805e4-703a-4b16-b0e9-294bcc7338e6", "cre... | ["fighting", "fun", "manifold-surveys", "human-limits"] | 0.25 | ["9260c2712797"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
vhoe6W1bp4mymigX86mI | could-you-unarmed-beat-a-grizzly-be | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat a grizzly bear in a fight? | 1715554740000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1713978536735 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-thin... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715554740557 | gregrosent | 1714087323001 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Surveys", "slug": "manifold-surveys", "groupId": "69c805e4-703a-4b16-b0e9-294bcc7338e6", "createdTime": 1713978536921}, {"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId": "RCGUqqLvrrs1ievZIxDE", "createdTime": 1713978536928}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "cre... | ["manifold-surveys", "fighting", "fun", "human-limits"] | 0.25 | ["627b8e95328f"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7462811634893235 | EK3po3uFE1rvMCb1dgYf | {"NO": 4718.102998491262, "YES": 140.3841857813453} | 1 | will-manifold-devalue-mana-by-more | 6187.6770061815205 | Will Manifold devalue mana by more than 10% in the next month? (Current plan is 90%) | 1715992633603 | lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1713978823417 | Nathan Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The current announced devaluation would be 90%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question has strange incentives.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 27.082283920748868, "platformFee": 27.082283920748868, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715992633603 | 380 | NathanpmYoung | 1715992633603 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNathanpmYoung%2Flove-images%2Fg-n-xy50_N.43?alt=media&token=28208478-6907-4bc5-9fde-15746ee9af90 | 19 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1642188589725 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Investors", "slug": "manifold-investors", "groupId": "A2ZvhuOUWz24vfhGP7sO", "createdTime": 1713978823600}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1713978823601}, {"name": "Mana", "slug": "mana", "groupId": "bL97jpIvPZgebZnTTgom", "... | ["manifold-investors", "manifold-6748e065087e", "mana"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715974271385 | 1715902382630 | 0.99 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
v0uLMp6lqJIWEM8hnnrT | which-if-any-responsible-gaming-fea | 88.4452416724072 | Which, if any, responsible gaming features will Manifold implement by the end of the year? | 1735707540000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713979129955 | David Glidden | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Inspired by the responsible gaming features incorporated by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Fliff", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.getfliff.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-pri... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5842118311834603, "platformFee": 1.18498055225763, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 300 | dglid | 1717154483844 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 7 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "c934652f5519", "prob": 0.377729051461314, "text": "Session reminders for time spent on Manifold", "index": 0, "poolNo": 91.74522788591639, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 151.1411149330518, "textFts": "'manifold':7 'remind':2 'session':1 'spent':5 'time':4", "contractId":... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1643941084707 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1713979130218}, {"name": "Manifold Drama", "slug": "manifold-drama", "groupId": "srdbxZea0H4L09GcXRMF", "createdTime": 1713979130219}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "gro... | ["manifold-business-future", "manifold-drama", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-users"] | 0.25 | 1717154480720 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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umLX0eeX9yI0WYnSpYQp | tiktok-ban-how-many-other-countries | 1114.8359916694806 | Tiktok ban - How many other countries will ban tiktok before 2025 (app must be unavailable in the country) | 1735689540000 | C6DCbhGMZFTUbrvOL04qXCXDC1G2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1713980236508 | jamie byrne | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "a ban counts once the app is unavailable, Even though the us government have voted to ban it, The app remains available to use as of now, So for a country to count it most be completely unavailable. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.456818215302409, "platformFee": 11.579603127793517, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | jamiebyrne | 1718468538366 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIxUzpq3R8a6T_Ffc7xJvdl5iqiqCjmXsfli_u6wen9p0c=s96-c | 13 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "68de6002df1e", "prob": 0.10622394109755838, "text": "None", "index": 0, "poolNo": 56.82189330496366, "userId": "C6DCbhGMZFTUbrvOL04qXCXDC1G2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 478.10359258693336, "textFts": "'none':1", "contractId": "umLX0eeX9yI0WYnSpYQp", "createdTime": 1713980236508, "probChanges": {"day": 1.804... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1709863633934 | 0 | [{"name": "TikTok", "slug": "tiktok", "groupId": "MjTB5PFWedvqLHXO0vKz", "createdTime": 1713980236764}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1713980236762}] | ["tiktok", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 1718468535229 | 1714097901268 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48168122560437676 | uMTBlQw0jL4yEDOx8g9w | {"NO": 154.66427792322716, "YES": 165.47177539445596} | 0.46484516866810505 | if-trump-becomes-president-will-mor | 18 | If Trump becomes president, will more people be imprisoned for drug offenses? | 1793692740000 | RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713980683997 | Archibald Crone | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of 20 April, 2024, 64,121 people are in US federal prisons for drug offenses.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.bop.gov/about/stati... | BINARY | {"day": -3.885780586188048e-16, "week": -3.885780586188048e-16, "month": -3.885780586188048e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.28142420122888984, "platformFee": 0.28142420122888984, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | BlueDragon | 1714145151422 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697749128213 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1713980684166}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1713980684176}, {"name": "Drug Policy", "slug": "drug-policy", "groupId": "B6bj6VYMErDbfcWWSpAj", ... | ["politics-default", "us-politics", "drug-policy", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713989795838 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ESk3gx91F0gJS8se3W7N | who-will-be-the-10-most-trendingsea | 1981.795504315186 | Who will be the 10 most trending/searched for people in the United States, per Google's Year In Search 2024? | 1735718340000 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1713980727017 | Joshua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Every year, Google makes a list of the most trending searches for people in the last year. If a name appears on the United States Year In Search 2024, it resolves YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 25.815396532702675, "platformFee": 21.455630608607688, "liquidityFee": 0} | 64.63671303049964 | 1410 | Joshua | 1720194873329 | 0 | 27 | 2 | ANYONE | [{"id": "77fae4c796ab", "prob": 0.65, "text": "Joe Biden", "index": 0, "poolNo": 197.5090851417568, "userId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 106.35104584556137, "textFts": "'biden':2 'joe':1", "contractId": "ESk3gx91F0gJS8se3W7N", "createdTime": 1713980727018, "probChanges": {"day": -1.110... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1645516283433 | 0 | [{"name": "Entertainment", "slug": "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "groupId": "YjinY1aCMoxH9UyfXCrv", "createdTime": 1713980727405}, {"name": "Google Trends", "slug": "google-trends", "groupId": "G71hVdQqs1RbmxkGBUC8", "createdTime": 1713980727402}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22... | ["entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "google-trends", "culture-default"] | 0.25 | 1720194870222 | 1714066381590 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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UjXRviGpd6WBG6FUc0oX | what-percentage-of-202425-nfl-kicko | 219.8305429421987 | What percentage of 2024-25 NFL kickoffs will result in a touchback? | 1735966740000 | mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713980828465 | Stop Punting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Regular season percentage only.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "new NFL rule changes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.39658567887897, "platformFee": 8.39658567887897, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 220 | StopPunting | 1714357555760 | 0 | 5 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "3313736075ab", "prob": 0.0021136777192231285, "text": "0-4", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.5981650637566015, "userId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 282.3991236508418, "textFts": "'-4':2 '0':1", "contractId": "UjXRviGpd6WBG6FUc0oX", "createdTime": 1713980828465, "probChanges": {"day": ... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668545009927 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1713980828866}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1713980828865}, {"name": "NFL Futures", "slug": "nfl-futures", "groupId": "470aae8a-05a8-4fee-8127-7e3fbd4db... | ["football", "sports-default", "nfl-futures", "nflprops", "nfl"] | 0.25 | 1714357552159 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8720315554220341 | nqoGauKQ2OiSy8OfbzQT | {"NO": 1530.1673262918011, "YES": 895.6281930495672} | 0.9209007527710268 | will-i-make-imo-2025-ac12d0df0604 | 8091.144797656442 | Will I make IMO 2025? | 1747637940000 | o9FcqlxIeJWuI0XwvdE395elUPJ3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.769403514559764 | False | basic | public | 1713980915017 | Hannah | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "missed it by 0 this year sobobbers", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will try to answer any questions posted in the comments section.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"t... | BINARY | {"day": -0.016382423517386613, "week": 0.011673165915240702, "month": 0.03297868030987394} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 39.00850860271567, "platformFee": 12.454610168062137, "liquidityFee": 0} | 30 | 1000 | hannah | 1720200319203 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1PLl0EoxFSsucTUFdSIyrIoYG3tDdrc82EZaJo0w=s96-c | 22 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1665174250995 | 0 | [{"name": "Personal", "slug": "personal", "groupId": "wxAGTtNee5f2PTzjqSI2", "createdTime": 1713980915170}, {"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1713980915172}, {"name": "Competition Math", "slug": "competition-math", "groupId": "64e0006d-606d-4e68-ad... | ["personal", "personal-goals", "competition-math"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720200315724 | 1720071619901 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5iu6USuRfdGBso5foFz0 | how-many-kickoff-return-touchdowns | 84.99999999999989 | How many kickoff return touchdowns will there be in the 2024-25 NFL season? | 1735966740000 | mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713981004307 | Stop Punting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There were 4 kick return TDs in the 2023-24 season. Will the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "new kickoff rule", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://operations.nfl.com/updates/football-ops/new-nfl-kickoff-rule/", "cla... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.767751398803399, "platformFee": 3.097271782949668, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | StopPunting | 1718752456094 | 0 | 4 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "95b674de6d46", "prob": 0.011183292336698231, "text": "0-1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.1655381491343146, "userId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 103.05584085475476, "textFts": "'-1':2 '0':1", "contractId": "5iu6USuRfdGBso5foFz0", "createdTime": 1713981004307, "probChanges": {"day": ... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668545009927 | 0 | [{"name": "OverReaction Monday", "slug": "overreaction-monday", "groupId": "0a11612e-6cbf-49f1-85ec-cda954edded3", "createdTime": 1713981004888}, {"name": "🏈 NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1713981004893}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaF... | ["overreaction-monday", "nfl", "sports-default", "football", "nfl-futures"] | 0.25 | 1718752452386 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5491811975695674 | JniJMc8xvudXBbb6TPKV | {"NO": 303.1509010312317, "YES": 196.6102273967877} | 0.6525734499611965 | by-2030-will-a-lower-percentage-of | 121.46343424383285 | By 2030, will a lower percentage of US federal prison inmates be in jail for drug offenses? | 1893481140000 | RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713981037100 | Archibald Crone | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves 12/31/2029 based on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_offenses.jsp", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_of... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9005584301089322, "platformFee": 1.658612343955674, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 240 | BlueDragon | 1717154390478 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697749128213 | 0 | [{"name": "Drug use", "slug": "drug-use", "groupId": "2IQAYS5BO1I2Tjg1neEJ", "createdTime": 1713981037393}, {"name": "Drug Policy", "slug": "drug-policy", "groupId": "B6bj6VYMErDbfcWWSpAj", "createdTime": 1713981037383}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime... | ["drug-use", "drug-policy", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717154387361 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.29440748119379745 | MOc9FrjKVXrFPqzkhsE4 | {"NO": 54.612247594161765, "YES": 2214.40751734933} | 0 | will-liverpool-score-more-than-2-go | 2053.3855107959967 | Will Liverpool score more than 2 goals against Everton in the premier league game tonight | 1713993842117 | jGvhNGne6OgN3Uz5vrBFVSjxCsI2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.397768436377312 | True | play | NO | public | 1713981517850 | James Gillespie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.43110680211600827} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.738175648793915, "platformFee": 4.738175648793915, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713993842117 | 220 | JamesGillespie | 1713993842117 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIjy0C62OpnzmUK2Q2cKJz0Dwgh3dvdGiaXSKa5tqKt7-Rivw=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1713195485591 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1713981518029}, {"name": "Premier League", "slug": "premiere-league", "groupId": "5gsW3dPR3ySBRZCodrgm", "createdTime": 1713981518036}, {"name": "Premier League 2023-2024", "slug": "premier-league-20232024", "groupId": "45a... | ["football", "premiere-league", "premier-league-20232024", "liverpool"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713993315330 | 0.01 | jGvhNGne6OgN3Uz5vrBFVSjxCsI2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8778785674746149 | neuU6ZhHbnIociLaNW62 | {"NO": 1452.7037383621096, "YES": 908.0751058338758} | 0.92 | will-i-qualify-for-imo-2025 | 1862.6513693702166 | Will I qualify for IMO 2025? | 1748847540000 | tSxqbw1VcBalBRPsG95cWA6K3E63 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.735651860093697 | False | basic | public | 1713981649018 | Tiger Zhang | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm a junior and a USA team member for IMO 2024. Will I qualify for IMO 2025? This resolves YES if and only if I receive an invitation: whether I accept it doesn't matter. I will try to answer any questions posted in the comments section. Copied fr... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0004197366778280198} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.069575306586428, "platformFee": 7.140525954816615, "liquidityFee": 0} | 50.00000000000001 | 1000 | cyclic | 1720200550741 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL8xf_E8aV05mBfSHhBHeKVv4aGlvBjG_7txbjOF5KiuA=s96-c | 14 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701130976027 | 0 | [{"name": "IMO", "slug": "imo", "groupId": "131e7893-2872-4a6c-bbec-dc702b40b5cd", "createdTime": 1713981649253}, {"name": "🧮 Math", "slug": "mathematics", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1713981649259}, {"name": "Competition Math", "slug": "competition-math", "groupId": "64e0006d-606d-4e68-ad95-045c... | ["imo", "mathematics", "competition-math", "personal", "personal-goals"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720200547609 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5061294691976639 | iiM5X30bn3t8EiTEbWJH | {"NO": 29.886613829442922, "YES": 1275.980459511599} | 0 | will-kalshis-google-trends-be-highe | 1204 | Will Kalshi be googled more than Polymarket on June 1st? | 1717264740000 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1713982112406 | Joshua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will check ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this Google Trends page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=kalshi,polymarket", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.023441187247703072} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.042390515231082, "platformFee": 2.20065318491558, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717275164341 | 200 | Joshua | 1717264740000 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1645516283433 | 0 | [{"name": "Startups", "slug": "startups", "groupId": "19c319ca-033c-474f-b417-5f07efe88ec0", "createdTime": 1713982112574}, {"name": "Kalshi", "slug": "kalshi", "groupId": "krovXmDn6rCdoiJjbe7R", "createdTime": 1713982112581}, {"name": "Polymarket", "slug": "polymarket", "groupId": "yeQpbHOQhxPyQifhmJrY", "createdTime"... | ["startups", "kalshi", "polymarket", "technology-default", "google-trends"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717259285708 | 1717273924703 | 0.02 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
fTV0IlLRKlzLsd3nbcXs | what-will-be-the-next-product-categ-4aa911d475f5 | 505 | What will be the next product category that Framework enters? [ADD ANSWERS] | 1735689540000 | R0COofz8D5QeHZoiLthVHpiZ06o1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713982116926 | qqii | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Relevant article for context. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/23/24138475/framework-laptop-product-categories-new", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-4... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.557467314777291, "platformFee": 1.2581474873035992, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 560 | qqii | 1716725187604 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIcJPqulneykTVmQv7H2ZEfXxFIe6JJmyDcfR4ie8GA09fv=s96-c | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0eaaba8febaf", "prob": 0.1407989188882424, "text": "Smartphone", "index": 0, "poolNo": 24.051239986611392, "userId": "R0COofz8D5QeHZoiLthVHpiZ06o1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 146.76853744152214, "textFts": "'smartphon':1", "contractId": "fTV0IlLRKlzLsd3nbcXs", "createdTime": 1713982116927, "probChanges": {"... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1702670644777 | 0 | [{"name": "Right to Repair", "slug": "right-to-repair", "groupId": "68f95c5b-5266-4a25-ab60-bfee82ab43c3", "createdTime": 1713982117299}, {"name": "Framework", "slug": "framework", "groupId": "7NTas2h3SXOiVM0YubR6", "createdTime": 1713982117306}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY... | ["right-to-repair", "framework", "technology-default", "business"] | 0.25 | 1716725183285 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
IDzZ4oX9bgLGMxvmaPaI | add-answers-what-can-each-manifold | 3996.388921398744 | [Add answers] What can each Manifold user be convinced of in the next month? (Debate market) | 1716620340000 | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1713982376598 | Savior of Plant | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is an experimental market where you can add a belief you have as an answer, and users can bet on whether anyone on the site can convince you otherwise, in the comments of this market or in Manifold DMs. (You can also add answers about other us... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 32.21816303845494, "platformFee": 14.559084716390565, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716650834106 | 1120 | SaviorofPlant | 1716620340000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | 20 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "dfeedba79eb9", "prob": 0.08, "text": "@SaviorofPlant can be convinced that this is a stupid market idea", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15.516433488044697, "userId": "FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 178.47592916295724, "textFts": "'convinc':4 'idea':11 'market':10 'saviorofpl':1 'stupid':9"... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1698371327350 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbahk6EJpQP9aKuZiX", "createdTime": 1713982376842}, {"name": "🎙️ Debate", "slug": "debate", "groupId": "gOk2vU8cIw0cnCKM4GAh", "createdTime": 1713982376837}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "... | ["manifold-users", "debate", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-games"] | 0.25 | 1716615298469 | 1716323276128 | 0.97 | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5162864395615293 | b19QcouZW4zCn37Vty6D | {"NO": 166.92541792126983, "YES": 118.40822424649912} | 0.6007467996680796 | will-the-us-nrc-approve-a-terrapowe | 30.171300950806064 | Will the US NRC approve a TerraPower construction permit application for Kemmerer Power Station Unit 1 by Sept 10 2026? | 1789099140000 | R37sScQRoKT4FQsfoVbrz9uOjyD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1713982621651 | Bernie B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The NRC has received the construction permit application for Kemmerer Power Station Unit 1 ADAMS number: ML24088A060. The NRC Acceptance Review Start date was 4/10/2024 ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Kemmerer Power Station, Unit 1 | ", "type": "tex... | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5650176717251383, "platformFee": 0.338263456199033, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | BernieB | 1716976273527 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK95m7MeYcOAHitk15lojXt5PU6z-9zG9ULA2fHBFjblBg=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1704591987823 | 0 | [{"name": "Electric Grid", "slug": "electric-grid", "groupId": "94OgdDAwJ4Me4wlUuSkY", "createdTime": 1713982621820}, {"name": "Electricity", "slug": "electricity", "groupId": "3ceebc26-3cde-40f8-a15a-80cf28dbeb70", "createdTime": 1713982621838}, {"name": "☢️ Nuclear", "slug": "nuclear", "groupId": "27a193db-f997-4533-... | ["electric-grid", "electricity", "nuclear", "nuclear-power"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716976270066 | 1716455425669 | 0 |
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