CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

2jIdvPvD2eU1P3xfL5ex

2024-oregon-department-of-transport

120

2024 Oregon Department of Transportation Performance: How Will They Score on Tiered KPMs?

1727765940000

bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714286256073

Lukas Day

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Oregon Law requires that various departments and commission report on legislatively approved Key Performance Measures (KPMs). KPMs ar...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.6300213865602011, "platformFee": 1.6300213865602011, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

525

LukasDay

1714327623606

0

https://firebasestorage.…0ad-0400288973bd

1

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "750f6a690f08", "prob": 0.3415018549518628, "text": "Traffic Fatalities and Serious Injuries per 100 million vehicle miles (VMT)\nTarget: 6.28\nLast Reported Result: 7.96", "index": 0, "poolNo": 28.375739486725777, "userId": "bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 54.71528644847902, "textFt...

0.3333333333333333

1652812495711

0

[{"name": "US State Government", "slug": "us-state-government", "groupId": "v8YHysZ0MaHi9v8xLl86", "createdTime": 1714286256417}, {"name": "United States", "slug": "united-states", "groupId": "5ba769e7-dd37-49d0-bdf2-9f1803f6872e", "createdTime": 1714286256421}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "grou...

["us-state-government", "united-states", "us-politics", "oregon-3ad789ce7df0", "economics-default"]

0.25

1714314957132

False

0

L31G3UN15EYaCiVXvTfY

what-will-be-the-average-number-of-3d45c5673ed1

20

What will be the average number of transit rides per Oregonian as reported by ODOT?

1727765940000

bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714286891927

Lukas Day

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Starting in 2019, an influx of funds from the Statewide Transportation Improvement Fund (STIF), created as part of the 2017 transport...

NUMBER

0

{"creatorFee": 0.7612401008721349, "platformFee": 0.7612401008721349, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

120

LukasDay

1714327811134

0

https://firebasestorage.…0ad-0400288973bd

1

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "fca99032c62a", "prob": 0.03195927283655452, "text": "18-19", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.5945016112529053, "userId": "bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 78.58699536840787, "textFts": "'-19':2 '18':1", "contractId": "L31G3UN15EYaCiVXvTfY", "createdTime": 1714286891927, "probChanges": {"day"...

0.3333333333333333

1652812495711

0

[{"name": "Transit", "slug": "transit", "groupId": "LoaGOR2QWe9ffrUKWZXj", "createdTime": 1714286892273}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1714286892274}, {"name": "US State Government", "slug": "us-state-government", "groupId": "v8YHysZ0MaHi9v8xLl86"...

["transit", "us-politics", "us-state-government", "transportation", "oregon-3ad789ce7df0"]

0.25

1714327087009

True

0

0.5305673602361117

EeC89eT181Md2RF2rFNl

{"NO": 170.64658971297735, "YES": 86.35500006678211}

0

will-chris-get-to-bed-by-1045pm-at-6fdbe0c7e3d1

64

Will Chris get to bed by 10:45pm at least 3 times this week?

1714879320000

3qVyst7MBPNUbQsnEX7JbJhWLew1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1714288945647

emile.chat

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a commitment market created via www.Emile.chat. Note: My comments on this market are in beta, so take them as signal but not gospel.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.8841300574010351, "platformFee": 0.8841300574010351, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715614602027

120

emile

1714879320000

0

https://firebasestorage.…ee5-4f34091b54f4

7

0

2

0.3333333333333333

1691876598453

0

0.25

0.5

1714875563793

0.69

3qVyst7MBPNUbQsnEX7JbJhWLew1

0

0.5156129482554687

njO6MDWtfFwJ89hsJhW9

{"NO": 231.87212516452087, "YES": 245.56122506825966}

0.5012779553588272

will-destiny-attend-minds-fest-duri

305

Will Destiny attend Minds Fest again before 2026?

1767254340000

rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714289217497

Tumbles ♠︎ Misses Manifold

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.08714806481850568}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.284858510838313, "platformFee": 3.002248264444703, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

240

Tumbles

1718016169516

0

https://firebasestorage.…8aa-654bdc115c8d

10

0

0.3333333333333333

1667436087719

0

[{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1714289217671}, {"name": "Destiny", "slug": "destiny", "groupId": "d5076dce-8f87-4eaa-9735-77def68f9e0e", "createdTime": 1714289217676}]

["destinygg", "destiny"]

0.25

0.5

1718016166392

1714289336632

0

0.4517136596288347

vBdAwoupFgpBP4XkEWwU

{"NO": 65.24207597667589, "YES": 604.8857328949547}

0.08160896387891366

will-saudi-arabia-truly-complete-th

725

Will Saudi Arabia truly complete the line city project by 2030

1909083540000

NepX9HRC2bgapEGDjEB1iBEo3bs1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714289646331

A over U

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Poll end when the project date postponeds or is completed", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In 2018 Saudi crown prince announced a new half a trillion dollars project call...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.17689747303042697}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.73767984251857, "platformFee": 1.7416142945333506, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

180

Ur

1718358490271

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI4y3Aya8tUws23Z3ogXfmIWiO3hus_Qt1PGyJBwqkbOg=s96-c

8

0

0.3333333333333333

1704100384022

0

[{"name": "NEOM", "slug": "neom", "groupId": "Beev1Tj1QqRAMrPwcyeg", "createdTime": 1714289646494}, {"name": "Saudi Arabia", "slug": "saudi-arabia", "groupId": "O9eynTpwvlmkSUgytLJr", "createdTime": 1714289646498}, {"name": "Charter Cities", "slug": "charter-cities", "groupId": "9f48007c-13b7-4ccf-a9f0-d83f200d9535", "...

["neom", "saudi-arabia", "charter-cities"]

0.25

0.5

1718358487108

0

0.4093601631623675

vPHNm595V6G4pg9KnDJ0

{"NO": 864.6406311658362, "YES": 1216.688335564774}

0.3300000000000001

will-destiny-debate-a-member-of-the-375daed21a3e

894.0426321239725

Will Destiny debate a member of the Chinese Communist Party in a year?

1745877540000

V1YeIh32ozXzkndrxK0uHSPNlc53

cpmm-1

0

9.75554925321956

False

basic

public

1714289699193

Jono

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "past debates don't count (though I'll tip you if you link me them)", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": -0.04138097114711037, "week": -0.04138097114711037, "month": -0.08193921362169582}

0

{"creatorFee": 21.19400645299285, "platformFee": 4.267951168798905, "liquidityFee": 0}

516.0426321239725

1000

Jono3h

1720209243920

0

https://firebasestorage.…665-d33d645b1716

18

2

0.3333333333333333

1691850127277

0

[{"name": "🇨🇳 China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1714289699443}, {"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1714289699449}]

["china", "destinygg"]

0.25

0.5

1720209240833

1714551517667

0

qhqNxB2x57Qg2ZTTDXGK

how-many-people-would-be-debating-i

526.2061034842313

How many people would be debating in the US presidential debates?

1728421140000

0Mvu6WxrIeWYbnDpWACos8EWwU43

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714290845854

Мракочёрт

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By debating I mean being present as an official ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "participant in any of the 2024 US presidential debates.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}

NUMBER

0

{"creatorFee": 6.285322650983205, "platformFee": 6.285322650983205, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

de27

1715792937643

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKMGuXHzL-xCz2PQe3xZl34zheYdpAsK48llMkk1VGyl4RByKo=s96-c

15

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "791ba97d522f", "prob": 0.07538621445715543, "text": "0-1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 33.537901466434846, "userId": "0Mvu6WxrIeWYbnDpWACos8EWwU43", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 411.3431912895303, "textFts": "'-1':2 '0':1", "contractId": "qhqNxB2x57Qg2ZTTDXGK", "createdTime": 1714290845854, "probChanges": {"day": -1...

0.3333333333333333

1714187376456

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1714290846054}, {"name": "🎙️ Debate", "slug": "debate", "groupId": "gOk2vU8cIw0cnCKM4GAh", "createdTime": 1714290846056}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime":...

["us-politics", "debate", "donald-trump", "2024-us-presidential-election", "bad-rules"]

0.25

1715792934330

1714443391558

True

0

0.4204559811850712

rG0ZXp0iYqsFgR2SagRk

{"NO": 209.95592557431064, "YES": 226.77629253802615}

0.40180059130652135

will-europa-universalis-5-have-over

179

Will Europa Universalis 5 have overall mixed reviews in Steam a month after release?

1735631760000

0Mvu6WxrIeWYbnDpWACos8EWwU43

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714291403888

Мракочёрт

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closing will be extended until the release will became known and then placed a month after it. By overall mixed I mean steam description under all reviews like in this picture. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null,...

BINARY

{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.3598336661146813, "platformFee": 2.482205023347192, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

220

de27

1717638056945

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKMGuXHzL-xCz2PQe3xZl34zheYdpAsK48llMkk1VGyl4RByKo=s96-c

8

0

0.3333333333333333

1714187376456

0

[{"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1714291404013}, {"name": "Paradox", "slug": "paradox", "groupId": "AMLRqN9z8l5MxIVaTzBK", "createdTime": 1714291404015}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 17142914...

["gaming", "paradox", "culture-default", "entertainment", "strategy-games"]

0.25

0.5

1717638053779

0

0.1378803904219056

987Uwh1bpcp1q1ALGmfn

{"NO": 118.47390856333453, "YES": 129.90743227062597}

0.12728983747749067

will-examples-of-highly-counterfact

10

Will "Examples of Highly Counterfactual Discoveries?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

1769904000000

h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714291581325

Less Wrong

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...

BINARY

{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.046283864687018256, "platformFee": 0.046283864687018256, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

120

LessWrong

1714318678505

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c

1

0

0.3333333333333333

1706554674237

0

[{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1714291581573}]

["lesswrong-annual-review"]

0.25

0.14

1714318675273

0

0.39999999999999997

u3o6z2fU8BY2bitSEOnG

{"NO": 53.33333333333331, "YES": 320.00000000000017}

0.09999999999999991

will-exodus-propulsion-technologies

203.50000000000006

Will Exodus Propulsion Technologies propellantless propulsion work in space?

1811545140000

0VON2byWgyS10VCUa9X3HX4s1t32

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714292583734

Gordan Knott

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/nasa-veterans-propellantless-propulsion-drive-defies-laws-of-physics", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/nasa-veterans-propellan...

BINARY

{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.7500000000000007, "platformFee": 1.7500000000000007, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

120

GordanKnott

1714307856592

0

https://firebasestorage.…14a-c87addf6031a

1

0

0.3333333333333333

1698871173640

0

[{"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1714292583942}, {"name": "🔭 Space exploration", "slug": "space-exploration", "groupId": "7EN6VxtLzX459WLUsjQv", "createdTime": 1714292583943}]

["space", "space-exploration"]

0.25

0.5

1714307853349

0

EtRxoM8aJZTTizBSpILD

how-much-mana-will-1-usd-buy-by-the

63.73813459303408

How much mana will 1 USD buy by the end of 2030?

1925420340000

QMF5wTqvWefYwLScsyDnxl4ORdq1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714294384341

Gaston Kessler

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the best offer availible (if you can get 1'000'000 mana for 1000 USD, it will resolve as 1000 mana per USD even if you can't buy 1000 mana with 1 USD).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content...

NUMBER

0

{"creatorFee": 1.2416738189777057, "platformFee": 1.2416738189777057, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

120

GastonKessler

1715080923584

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJLS-aCC3U5ebLUDvs8zzjKoHIGvM8SGDPz6U2ea5X1=s96-c

2

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "2acf53e0b0ea", "prob": 0.5017330632493876, "text": "0-1000", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15.016223108957021, "userId": "QMF5wTqvWefYwLScsyDnxl4ORdq1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14.912486415799115, "textFts": "'-1000':2 '0':1", "contractId": "EtRxoM8aJZTTizBSpILD", "createdTime": 1714294384342, "probChanges": {"da...

0.3333333333333333

1702761965647

0

[{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1714294384734}, {"name": "Mana", "slug": "mana", "groupId": "bL97jpIvPZgebZnTTgom", "createdTime": 1714294384738}, {"name": "Money", "slug": "money", "groupId": "Sh8C5Y6hkvLT7jyyLRX8", "createdTime": 171429438473...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "mana", "money", "manifold-investors"]

0.25

1715080919665

True

0

0.31989233071094003

V9JXUt5DUKKfdSCrCaJ1

{"NO": 904.0813099809442, "YES": 1148.9878145015928}

0.27012587737738364

will-giving-what-we-can-reach-10000

330

Will Giving What We Can reach 10,000 active 10% pledges in 2024?

1735685940000

ZO9qSVVstZgzKNToBWDYibeBW8P2

cpmm-1

0

9.623446668175278

False

basic

public

1714294944874

Andri

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on the number under \"Lifetime members\" at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/about-us/members", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/about-us/membe...

BINARY

{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -0.23636305888740589, "month": -0.23636305888740589}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.383925906526793, "platformFee": 1.3573859358509628, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

andri

1720052310714

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfHeGd_f3weXHQGNPF2fxvAezw2jBBMQXNlzd1tkV2szg=s96-c

14

2

0.3333333333333333

1688220771698

0

[{"name": "Donations", "slug": "donations", "groupId": "73e7d5ba-bde3-4f9a-887b-7f06857d9f97", "createdTime": 1714294945082}, {"name": "Charity", "slug": "charity", "groupId": "10d5fec2-4d96-4f07-ae53-c76e873ff275", "createdTime": 1714294945150}, {"name": "GiveWell", "slug": "givewell", "groupId": "7VQzGsVwfMWEtsIREYQE...

["donations", "charity", "givewell", "giving-what-we-can"]

0.25

0.5

1720052141144

1720052309370

0

0.5

jBK3pRqDxCtcxEZ8JV0o

{"NO": 170.39176286475865, "YES": 58.688283000728696}

1

will-it-gemeni-15-pro-have-internet

117

Will it Gemeni 1.5 pro Have Internet access Until May 3

1714769940000

3zejHpCyGtPXiIX6iYH7BrWgcHu1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1714295077417

Fakman

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.6594317450354001, "platformFee": 1.6594317450354001, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715121037316

100

Fakman

1714769940000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJMeCoCpaZ3KXfwIPUpkB7_24OZMnwEIQnhNoMVqnFrEA6TVg=s96-c

7

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1714294165143

0

[{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1714295078871}]

["ai"]

0.25

0.5

1714747963776

1714321808682

0.74

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

0

MUtA1woHFTBC0gmCpiSB

who-will-win-champions-chess-tour-b

5654.31439345417

Who will win Champions Chess Tour Chess.com Classic?

1715804660060

FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

ff30c2d56a46

public

1714297786151

Weezing

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Who will win Division I of Champions Chess Tour ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Chess.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://Chess.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:d...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 6.987681187091512, "platformFee": 6.987681187091512, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715804660060

190

Weezing

1715804660060

0

https://firebasestorage.…9ac-b0dfa544f276

11

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "c1667f4854fc", "prob": 0.0029322118286087538, "text": "Magnus Carlsen", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.69916725292137, "userId": "FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1257.8629125496534, "textFts": "'carlsen':2 'magnus':1", "contractId": "MUtA1woHFTBC0gmCpiSB", "resolverId": "FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAffl...

0.3333333333333333

1700212225777

0

[{"name": "Board Games", "slug": "board-games", "groupId": "Hu6z8BYs5Xz3ZRyai8MF", "createdTime": 1714297786408}, {"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1714297786414}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 171...

["board-games", "chess", "sports-default", "magnus-carlsen"]

0.25

1715804599592

1715443422880

{"ff30c2d56a46": 100}

FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1

True

0

0.612381552745763

i8FvPCWmkCakdZ1VWPJs

{"NO": 3903.60667840078, "YES": 419.1615064907769}

0.9363585784672461

will-at-least-one-human-be-cured-of

8104.737589559734

Will at least one human be cured of a prion disease by EOY 2045?

2398363140000

ZNbZqVJ7rJUmjzymhIgtfMc6JJQ2

cpmm-1

0

10.054452425292862

False

basic

public

1714302673741

Vadim

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently all ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "prion diseases", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prion_diseases", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:de...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.01913490019987818, "month": 0.2982182100715042}

0

{"creatorFee": 153.3018107345966, "platformFee": 1.3883259137557709, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

wadimiusz

1719699365752

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu30gaq8rWjmpzfVLcGMCtPvX9oYTxN3NWEN6SJ4=s96-c

32

1

0.3333333333333333

1668445093408

0

[{"name": "prion diseases", "slug": "prion-diseases", "groupId": "b41db807-d0b4-4125-b2f4-e3c35e1ba365", "createdTime": 1714302673893}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1714302673897}, {"name": "Biotech", "slug": "biotech", "groupId": "zx0Pik5lD4jydGPxb...

["prion-diseases", "science-default", "biotech", "medicine", "health"]

0.25

0.5

1719699362588

1718172894570

0

0.4529391082841039

oSa4gZvJsNUk7HAYf2OW

{"NO": 140.01919388525388, "YES": 184.7204893657499}

0.3855950009734353

will-prodigaler-sorceress-take-2-ha

79

Will "prodigaler sorceress (take 2)" have more posts than the original thread by 2025?

1735682340000

iURMorODksQFcnUl3bIjxFqSRK73

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714304392835

NoUsernameSelected

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "New thread (119 replies as of writing): ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.glowfic.com/posts/8238", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.glowfic.com/posts/8238", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline h...

BINARY

{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.2607617644181688, "platformFee": 1.2607617644181688, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

160

NoUsernameSelected

1714498949569

0

https://firebasestorage.…c01-e79abbd2b400

4

0

0.3333333333333333

1662298670845

0

[{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1714304392989}]

["glowfic"]

0.25

0.5

1714498945978

0

0.5000000000000001

DVQ1cPTvKuvkHGHE92fl

{"NO": 280.6811444390101, "YES": 35.62761588416182}

1

will-chairman-powell-wear-purple-ti

184

Will Chairman Powell wear purple tie in May 2024 FOMC Press Conference?

1714589017094

YaQuXDOPQ1Uvsfme2Up1K9pI7FG3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1714307383372

Krypton

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.659427780494964, "platformFee": 1.659427780494964, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714589017094

100

Krypton

1714589017094

0

https://firebasestorage.…367-9c72fe74bf31

1

0

0.3333333333333333

1693393975510

0

0.25

0.5

1714589006703

0.89

YaQuXDOPQ1Uvsfme2Up1K9pI7FG3

0

0.5000000000000002

pkrlVqdAtoW6dbMlEmDR

{"NO": 188.89659511144563, "YES": 52.939016683176206}

1

will-amazon-beat-earnings-expectati

91

Will Amazon beat earnings expectation (expected EPS $0.78) of Q1 2024?

1714526649213

YaQuXDOPQ1Uvsfme2Up1K9pI7FG3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1714307617717

Krypton

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.0517024442771876, "platformFee": 1.0517024442771876, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714526649213

100

Krypton

1714526649213

0

https://firebasestorage.…367-9c72fe74bf31

1

0

0.3333333333333333

1693393975510

0

[{"name": "Amazon", "slug": "amazon", "groupId": "GtXXC8KCkQZSzzhZBgIu", "createdTime": 1714307617944}]

["amazon"]

0.25

0.5

1714526626235

0.78

YaQuXDOPQ1Uvsfme2Up1K9pI7FG3

0

0.5017611205396747

l4Uj611DNZnnpzuGeVeo

{"NO": 673.6785896941387, "YES": 29.399974428379423}

1

will-apple-beat-earnings-expectatio

707.0482816579791

Will Apple beat earnings expectation(expected EPS $1.40) of Q1 2024?

1714688677267

YaQuXDOPQ1Uvsfme2Up1K9pI7FG3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1714308088118

Krypton

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.299805801458483, "platformFee": 4.299805801458483, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714688677267

140

Krypton

1714688677267

0

https://firebasestorage.…367-9c72fe74bf31

16

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1693393975510

0

[{"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1714308088558}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1714652967066}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 17146...

["apple", "stocks", "economics-default", "technology-default", "finance"]

0.25

0.5

1714688652636

1714684775951

0.96

YaQuXDOPQ1Uvsfme2Up1K9pI7FG3

0

OBLhUCwQPeFDR2qFfaPj

what-percentage-of-the-vote-in-the

276

What percentage of the vote in the 2024 US Presidential Election will the Libertarian Party candidate win?

1730872740000

Pbm0K6qFRxUJYDEXPcuXaDys8vK2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714308887248

Seth Soarenson

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The result will be a percentage of the total votes cast in the 2024 US Presidential Election. Only votes cast for the Libertarian Party's official candidate will be counted toward this percentage (i.e. votes for Vermin Supreme are still a vote enti...

NUMBER

0

{"creatorFee": 15.004874606709146, "platformFee": 7.315844103020596, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

200

SethSoarenson

1719981500649

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLMdybNAiHK_r2TEmjsq8LpNmkDJzsBVVtD7WGVRS1RnJk=s96-c

7

1

DISABLED

[{"id": "b1068477cb0d", "prob": 0.05928186084988877, "text": "0-0.2", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.376089768998162, "userId": "Pbm0K6qFRxUJYDEXPcuXaDys8vK2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 69.44227062422782, "textFts": "'-0.2':2 '0':1", "contractId": "OBLhUCwQPeFDR2qFfaPj", "createdTime": 1714308887248, "probChanges": {"day":...

0.3333333333333333

1702829812154

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1714308887590}, {"name": "Libertarianism", "slug": "libertarianism", "groupId": "cd97f0ef-ad80-40e5-ac38-70ace9a9c19a", "createdTime": 1714308887596}, {"name": "2024 US Election", "...

["2024-us-presidential-election", "libertarianism", "2024-us-election", "us-politics"]

0.25

1719981496945

1714310292576

True

0

O8R6pUOov0O8fiF7fv6e

ww3-when

488.41930354040807

WW3 when?

2556140340000

9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714309696025

Kongo Landwalker

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The variant \"2050\" stands for \"not before 2050\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trigger 1:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An official declaration/resolut...

NUMBER

0

{"creatorFee": 17.865982858678166, "platformFee": 13.954944392177156, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

280

KongoLandwalker

1720013313275

0

https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f

10

1

DISABLED

[{"id": "70240b298bed", "prob": 0.009418114083992585, "text": "2024-2025", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.6748569886304883, "userId": "9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 176.15872770717863, "textFts": "'-2025':2 '2024':1", "contractId": "O8R6pUOov0O8fiF7fv6e", "createdTime": 1714309696025, "probChange...

0.3333333333333333

1681038287526

0

[{"name": "⚔️ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1714309696285}, {"name": "ww3", "slug": "ww3-0de6f68758b8", "groupId": "29708c7c-1502-4abd-8450-7fe46c2babf2", "createdTime": 1714309696299}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTi...

["wars", "ww3-0de6f68758b8", "world-default"]

0.25

1720013309705

1714314318651

True

0

0.4396803448440936

MntpbKvSxuhopaRpzmrZ

{"NO": 52.52343753508984, "YES": 4080.2759078986423}

0

will-the-fall-guy-have-a-higher-rot

5418.629555685674

Will The Fall Guy have a higher RottenTomatoes Critics score than Challengers?

1715410740000

oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1714310249652

Matty B

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Which romance film will critics prefer in aggregate: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "The Fall Guy", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_fall_guy_2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:unde...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 14.177228315159232, "platformFee": 14.177228315159232, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715448421672

360

mattyb

1715410740000

0

https://firebasestorage.…6aa-3b42c0d89c03

19

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1697395701475

0

[{"name": "📺 Television & Film", "slug": "television-film", "groupId": "EUSEngFk1dGGBfaMeAmh", "createdTime": 1714310249816}, {"name": "🎥 Movies", "slug": "movies", "groupId": "KSeNIu7AWgiBBM5FqVuB", "createdTime": 1714310249814}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fO...

["television-film", "movies", "entertainment", "film-battles", "rotten-tomatoes"]

0.25

0.5

1715387382578

1715448018858

0.01

KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2

0

0.49809850777036296

1q9ywcSvN5s2TUx7UNx6

{"NO": 620.5210099091453, "YES": 13.17912469598221}

0

will-spains-pm-pedro-sanchez-announ

1042.2836024020453

Will Spain's PM Pedro Sánchez announce his resignation on April 29?

1714381140000

PFqJ3JCFTgaTmPvERr7EatViPO02

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1714311135719

Leon

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.09707407873167502}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.255308755660028, "platformFee": 9.255308755660028, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714381693271

160

AlexLeon

1714381140000

0

https://firebasestorage.…550-633004e379c8

9

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1691077574001

0

[{"name": "🇪🇸 Spain", "slug": "spain", "groupId": "OGSXjmjjySBpjZC2r5QQ", "createdTime": 1714311135859}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1714311135866}]

["spain", "politics-default"]

0.25

0.5

1714380756298

1714379168403

0.98

PFqJ3JCFTgaTmPvERr7EatViPO02

0

FppctSdYywWJNpcQ7884

what-percentage-of-xai-does-igor-ba

111.99999999999997

What percentage of xAI does Igor Babuschkin own as of April 28, 2024?

1798761540000

kgzDlbutaPVIOTCZPopLkiVShNl2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714311350189

Breakthrough

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves when a reputable news source reports on this. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

NUMBER

0

{"creatorFee": 5.731355405621192, "platformFee": 5.731355405621192, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

220

Breakthrough

1714424445871

0

https://firebasestorage.…710-424c549ed065

2

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "ea0d2e6aa547", "prob": 0.00716217327407135, "text": "0-1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.4901157061149939, "userId": "kgzDlbutaPVIOTCZPopLkiVShNl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 206.56345254663057, "textFts": "'-1':2 '0':1", "contractId": "FppctSdYywWJNpcQ7884", "createdTime": 1714311350189, "probChanges": {"day": 0...

0.3333333333333333

1689515109296

0

[{"name": "XAI", "slug": "xai", "groupId": "65250acc-1894-49f3-9b80-d39d585694ac", "createdTime": 1714311350648}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1714311350646}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcp...

["xai", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "technology-default", "startups"]

0.25

1714424440603

True

0

0.5155482731290599

r89P5Wt9RQgWnTQBSePk

{"NO": 14.442965971811645, "YES": 1521.6347254216244}

0

will-the-horse-that-wins-the-preakn

2858.1424532449637

Will the horse that wins the Preakness Stakes 2024 have a two-word name?

1716073932000

sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

NO

public

1714311376843

The Official

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 18.608497859365684, "platformFee": 18.608497859365684, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716073932000

1000

10thOfficial

1716073932000

0

https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96

22

0

0.3333333333333333

1682437068858

0

[{"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b3ll9Ch9rdbcrTRAbjUf", "createdTime": 1714311377007}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1714311377001}, {"name": "Preakness", "slug": "preakness", "groupId": "16610603-0beb-455b-b9ea-9a8cb0...

["sports-betting", "sports-default", "preakness", "horse-racing"]

0.25

0.5

1716073902632

0.01

sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2

0

0.5239334862283629

1O9nbTtwyXT53tnAdMv4

{"NO": 10.217005545495567, "YES": 1113.1849999148296}

0

will-the-horse-that-wins-the-belmon

1825.0451621160203

Will the horse that wins the Belmont Stakes 2024 have a two-word name?

1717888338117

sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1714311461796

The Official

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.520569478108008}

0

{"creatorFee": 26.22747344472487, "platformFee": 0.4934377612629839, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717888338117

120

10thOfficial

1717888338117

0

https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96

15

0

0.3333333333333333

1682437068858

0

[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1714311461952}, {"name": "Horse racing", "slug": "horse-racing", "groupId": "ef96178c-314c-4aed-be84-e13d3875ff06", "createdTime": 1714311461950}, {"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b3ll9Ch9...

["sports-default", "horse-racing", "sports-betting", "belmont-stakes"]

0.25

0.5

1717887145632

0.01

sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2

0

0.5244610710545949

KGqIONVbxFbVeyrrGSWC

{"NO": 972.9008495301939, "YES": 1016.6296303361937}

0.5134858483713336

will-meta-threads-still-be-around-i

309.94785484555297

Will Meta Threads still be around in 2028?

1830250740000

OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133

cpmm-1

0

9.604377031943407

False

basic

public

1714312634147

jim

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.threads.net/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.threads.net/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:u...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.2320056567960105, "platformFee": 5.2320056567960105, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

jim

1715658847562

0

https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f

15

0

0.3333333333333333

1690863320225

0

[{"name": "Meta (Facebook)", "slug": "meta-facebook", "groupId": "pOFiVhTtERxjJVbhKNiC", "createdTime": 1714312634306}, {"name": "Threads", "slug": "threads", "groupId": "ede9df65-dcfb-4c3b-908f-bed72dc503ba", "createdTime": 1714312634310}, {"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH"...

["meta-facebook", "threads", "twitter", "technology-default"]

0.25

0.5

1715658844302

0

0.504427140955889

Bu5lPJgcgXbPKKnXhH3s

{"NO": 22.253878083643087, "YES": 2478.199234704447}

0

will-bitcoin-be-above-66666-at-the-86c270e828ce

7600.06307775758

Will bitcoin be above $66,666 at the end of June 2024?

1719806340000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1714312921873

Predictor 🔥

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google BTC price at EOD ET.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.022398625385278953, "month": -0.7799999999999999}

0

{"creatorFee": 70.40771353386884, "platformFee": 5.307092131065438, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719808167004

240

Predictor

1719806340000

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

27

1

0.3333333333333333

1644461353687

0

[{"name": "🪙 Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 1714312922055}, {"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1714312922051}, {"name": "Prices", "slug": "prices", "groupId": "ec8ff17e-7276-4586-83a8-7fc5a4a7...

["crypto-prices", "crypto-speculation", "prices", "technology-default", "bitcoin"]

0.25

0.5

1719804869455

1718823798345

0.01

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

0

0.5

0O6VzaktXtdmjdKZ7Jhg

{"NO": 109.67693839261675, "YES": 91.17687042103996}

0.5460535652294758

will-taylor-swift-reach-100-on-the

10

Will Taylor Swift reach 100 on the Google Trends again in 2024?

1714313618192

oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2

cpmm-1

0

9.571658363807106

True

play

CANCEL

public

1714313477189

Matty B

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It seems like she’s done in twice so far this year, once during the Super Bowl and again with The Tortured Poets Department.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Taylor Swift reach a 100 on th...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.04605356522947579}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.16153080369162434, "platformFee": 0.16153080369162434, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714313618192

100

mattyb

1714313630809

0

https://firebasestorage.…6aa-3b42c0d89c03

1

0

0.3333333333333333

1697395701475

True

0

[{"name": "Google Trends", "slug": "google-trends", "groupId": "G71hVdQqs1RbmxkGBUC8", "createdTime": 1714313477334}, {"name": "Music Artists", "slug": "music-artists", "groupId": "2j0sKR6KW5zW2RofbGNE", "createdTime": 1714313477340}, {"name": "👸 Taylor Swift", "slug": "taylor-swift", "groupId": "TgyXEpID2HktDrf1QYfB"...

["google-trends", "music-artists", "taylor-swift", "music-f213cbf1eab5", "entertainment"]

0.25

0.5

1714313590062

1714313629607

0.55

oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2

0

0.5821589316928756

qJCjpKrayp5O5oGOVvCf

{"NO": 1871.6045499335253, "YES": 26.339609951716852}

1

will-market-creation-go-below-100-p

1818.5620823222669

Will Market Creation count go below 100 post pivot?

1716568928829

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1714313731165

Ammon Lam

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution base on the numbers reported here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/stats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/stats", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hov...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.710382251327107, "platformFee": 3.266209906151718, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716568928829

160

AmmonLam

1716568928829

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c

5

0

0.3333333333333333

1668192587343

0

[{"name": "Pivot Predictions", "slug": "pivot-predictions", "groupId": "6iOdS5vCFUBWysZiBH1F", "createdTime": 1714313731304}]

["pivot-predictions"]

0.25

0.5

1716481081101

1716562942788

0.99

srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2

0

0.5077028809984174

f9uxTJNJ5kgtJOHhBmz2

{"NO": 129.67693839261676, "YES": 111.17687042103998}

0.5460535652294753

android-gboard-includes-full-senten

10

Android Gboard includes full sentence rewrite suggestions by an AI or LLM by mid 2026

1782889140000

kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714314068735

Ernie

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Now it has single word replacement suggestions. If it has another mode of making bigger suggestions for phrases or fill sentences, YES", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Available for me on pixel...

BINARY

{"day": -4.440892098500626e-16, "week": -4.440892098500626e-16, "month": -4.440892098500626e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.16153080369162434, "platformFee": 0.16153080369162434, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

120

Ernie

1714351105565

0

https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466

1

0

0.3333333333333333

1668384110640

0

[{"name": "Gboard", "slug": "gboard", "groupId": "feda54c1-27f3-4471-8675-5ddd9f4b1210", "createdTime": 1714314068944}, {"name": "Android (mobile OS)", "slug": "android-mobile-os", "groupId": "ccd1b71e-c4c2-4ac9-88f5-90bea2419df8", "createdTime": 1714314068940}, {"name": "Feature Requests", "slug": "feature-requests", ...

["gboard", "android-mobile-os", "feature-requests", "humancomputer-interfaces"]

0.25

0.5

1714351102254

0

0.13093983182937902

5Xz5ZEok4Kn3GVPrpbDh

{"NO": 710.9698987200214, "YES": 6483.152502566606}

0

will-jesus-be-more-popular-than-tay

5750.362410404815

Will Jesus be more popular than Taylor Swift on a day before June?

1717224422666

oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2

cpmm-1

0

10.469585293156367

True

basic

NO

public

1714314349668

Matty B

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "According to Google Search Trends, will ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Jesus overtake Taylor Swift in popularity", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%201-m&geo=US&q=%2Fm%...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.016254354701549113}

0

{"creatorFee": 16.631638132967925, "platformFee": 5.117359770863725, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717224422666

1000

mattyb

1717224422666

0

https://firebasestorage.…6aa-3b42c0d89c03

12

0

0.3333333333333333

1697395701475

0

[{"name": "Jesus Christ", "slug": "jesus-christ", "groupId": "vRL60c6FSAzderqRFt5D", "createdTime": 1714314349815}, {"name": "🎷 Music", "slug": "music-f213cbf1eab5", "groupId": "Xuc2UY8gGfjQqFXwxq5d", "createdTime": 1714314349821}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fO...

["jesus-christ", "music-f213cbf1eab5", "entertainment", "taylor-swift", "music-artists"]

0.25

0.5

1717224110518

1717224122630

0.02

hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2

0

0.5863125291457284

9zzvlSrgFxboHUqIkpJ7

{"NO": 237.14122135382556, "YES": 172.77634032177397}

1

will-my-ai-product-company-get-fund

115.52544971596787

Will my company get funded by Antler Canada?

1716830823378

FgjVBV7DEYSxBap0JIwKEISAXDq1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1714315172854

inaimathi

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm at the prototype/initial-design-partners stage of a startup that automates [redacted common and lucrative, but almost-universally-loathed professional service]. We're part of the March 2024 Toronto Antler cohort, I currently have a business co-...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.6518202663681187, "platformFee": 1.6518202663681187, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716830823378

200

inaimathi

1716830848024

0

https://firebasestorage.…f1b-6b8056fdb600

7

0

0.3333333333333333

1694283259231

0

[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1714315173011}, {"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1714315173013}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 171431...

["technology-default", "finance", "ai"]

0.25

0.5

1715398078382

1716830846210

0.66

FgjVBV7DEYSxBap0JIwKEISAXDq1

0

0.5294871096497716

HeI1cyL8yOuiufkqBuun

{"NO": 1618.6167923074381, "YES": 20.335266255222642}

1

metaculus-will-the-governor-of-gaga

1681.1950480215212

[Metaculus] Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?

1715285517465

PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1714316125440

Mirror Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the origin...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.949678508367116, "platformFee": 6.949678508367116, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715285517465

160

mirrorbot

1715285517465

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0

5

0

0.3333333333333333

1696426201173

0

[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1714316125575}, {"name": "🇷🇺 Russia", "slug": "russia", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1714317107588}, {"name": "Moldova", "slug": "moldova", "groupId": "M57bzBYAbZWEA9yPdYGd", "createdTime": 1714317112344...

["metaculus", "russia", "moldova"]

0.25

0.5

1715249951259

1715249769342

PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2

0

0.1564963209369969

b1ZohoLLL41epi7QI3Ct

{"NO": 610.5995704623826, "YES": 7036.853520787233}

0

metaculus-will-russia-have-control

8566.758621621042

[Metaculus] Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?

1717333200000

PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2

cpmm-1

0

10.470133596005212

True

basic

NO

public

1714316127442

Mirror Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the original on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.015843793388980638}

0

{"creatorFee": 38.71710694096028, "platformFee": 31.448538503879156, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717416477762

1000

mirrorbot

1717333200000

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0

35

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1696426201173

0

[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1714316127669}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1714317155279}, {"name": "🇷🇺 Russia", "slug": "russia", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 171431...

["metaculus", "world-default", "russia", "ukrainerussia-war", "bakhmut"]

0.25

0.5

1717332709934

1717331745204

0.02

cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2

0

0.5000000000000004

RUilatVE0sRc34B1R2qR

{"NO": 98.01960588196064, "YES": 102.02040612204078}

0

daily-coinflip-6bfdbe3e39d0

1367.6660426513506

Daily coinflip

1714449540000

gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1714316191889

Traveel

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Day 142)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 10.809236409050174, "platformFee": 10.809236409050174, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714545430986

100

Traveel

1714449540000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c

26

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1674441975928

0

[{"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1714316192031}, {"name": "Non-Predictive Profits", "slug": "nonpredictive-profits", "groupId": "sVCyD10FvUk5af10QT6H", "createdTime": 1714316192047}, {"name": "Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac...

["fairlyrandom", "nonpredictive-profits", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"]

0.25

0.5

False

1714443034823

1714541012068

0.49

gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93

0

12n2puETafXcKHHEBXSZ

which-team-will-win-the-202425-ncaa

532

Which team will win the 2024/25 NCAA College Football Playoff National Championship?

1736917200000

sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714316492633

The Official

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 5.592888478680242, "platformFee": 3.1256550572624806, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

585

10thOfficial

1719688426466

0

https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96

8

1

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "23cfa5b42409", "prob": 0.03733886007698237, "text": "Florida State Seminoles (ACC)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 12.593872349387231, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 324.6920630921918, "textFts": "'acc':4 'florida':1 'seminol':3 'state':2", "contractId": "12n2puETafXcKHHEBXSZ", ...

0.3333333333333333

1682437068858

0

[{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1714316492967}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1714316492970}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx...

["entertainment", "sports-default", "culture-default", "football", "college-football"]

0.25

1719688422811

1716210886242

True

0

0.5

nALz3f49Hdna3NoxF09l

{"NO": 82.42257456224944, "YES": 121.32598445402265}

0.40453083428024084

will-the-player-character-enter-sol

22

Will the player character enter Solution 9 before level 98 MSQ

1719633540000

hNGM3Ys150SDsA68tlWIdxXKQU62

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714316601059

Jade Harley

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "a few conditions:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "* cutscenes and solo duties (where the player controls an npc) do not count, the player must be able to walk around", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.007806964542354411}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.3648031024953851, "platformFee": 0.3092124434819743, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

jade

1719620739191

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJDddJsLArWnI64rT-34IYOkgG8J5FZKBVP_DBpkCZTGDI=s96-c

2

1

0.3333333333333333

1698556866935

0

[{"name": "Final Fantasy", "slug": "final-fantasy", "groupId": "19AcQGM1JlK6HyyZM3j0", "createdTime": 1714316601206}, {"name": "MMORPG", "slug": "mmorpg", "groupId": "680469bf-3c9e-48b6-8bd5-1dab5615efcd", "createdTime": 1714316601202}, {"name": "Final Fantasy XIV", "slug": "final-fantasy-xiv", "groupId": "716bd899-bd1...

["final-fantasy", "mmorpg", "final-fantasy-xiv", "ffxiv", "gaming"]

0.25

0.5

1719620735945

0

aHbuJdCQhB56qC3pBEKd

what-is-extropic-ais-first-product

306.78358560797693

What is Extropic AI's first product?

1735718340000

zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1714317858131

Mira

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1784378967736340751"}}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Quantum Circuit Sampler(whole or partial compilation of the neural network to quantum...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 6.757384827379243, "platformFee": 3.230912966147085, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Mira

1717607443066

0

https://firebasestorage.…959-42404b37a55f

12

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "36e4a99a9dfa", "prob": 0.04105020289664183, "text": "Boltmann Circuit", "index": 0, "poolNo": 21.075993322257418, "userId": "zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 492.3439616368828, "textFts": "'boltmann':1 'circuit':2", "contractId": "aHbuJdCQhB56qC3pBEKd", "createdTime": 1714317858132, ...

0.3333333333333333

1672765622992

0

[{"name": "Extropic AI", "slug": "extropix-ai", "groupId": "c0b1b033-dc21-479e-a0f7-f292a5efad43", "createdTime": 1714317858555}]

["extropix-ai"]

0.25

1717607439652

True

0

0.5453134355907033

owgaNzXtJ9FD7PIk7qVz

{"NO": 56.57771530229401, "YES": 216.4357114999191}

0

will-i-have-attended-12-of-the-loca

243

Will I have attended >1/2 of the local Quaker meetings by July?

1719871140000

D1SxDsn7jrco9kYhE9C3Rldi7qw1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1714318438790

P. Jain

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I decided to try out religion for a few months after reevaluating its usefulness, quakerism seems to be the most suited one as there are regular Sunday meetings in the area. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will thi...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.6925413806640287, "month": -0.6925413806640287}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.35996949898635, "platformFee": 1.5016215476987527, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719879253470

120

logaems

1719871140000

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FLogaems%2Flove-images%2Fmrjjwft5DS.37?alt=media&token=f563a08f-6e8a-40cb-b796-89cad49e1476

9

4

0.3333333333333333

1686156720394

0

0.25

0.5

1719870784546

1714684807615

0.24

D1SxDsn7jrco9kYhE9C3Rldi7qw1

0

afcgIsRurxtj9bnyizJx

will-manifold-launch-real-money-pri

12857.050814061397

Will Manifold launch real money prizes, and still have them at the end of 2024?

1735707540000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-multi-1

0

7.233374281150665

False

basic

public

1714318603291

Jack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/A-New-Deal-for-Manifold-c6e9de8f08b549859c64afb3af1dd393", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/A-New-Deal-for-M...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 119.01309328689375, "platformFee": 78.47784391041124, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

4860

jack

1719888421956

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

136

1

DISABLED

[{"id": "590b0db60821", "prob": 0.11873000454688047, "text": "Manifold doesn't launch real money prizes in 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 441.1264008558485, "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3274.2478429114044, "textFts": "'2024':9 'doesn':2 'launch':4 'manifold':1 'money':6 'prize':7...

0.3333333333333333

1641102645330

0

[{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1714318603506}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1714318603511}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-business-future", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"]

0.25

1719888418689

1714611357579

True

prob-desc

0

0.3638721188083284

CqZA81VMCqyQmGIizKkU

{"NO": 93.22946748530342, "YES": 869.7152531457642}

0

icc-indictment-for-idf-andor-israel

807.8298569740961

ICC indictment for IDF and/or Israeli Gov. top echelon before May 10th 2024?

1715322685641

YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1714318796358

Camille

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some Twitter talk that ICC indictments/warrants are imminent. Is this the case? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "con...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.5778793940843565, "platformFee": 4.5778793940843565, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715322766737

220

CamillePerrin

1715322836262

0

https://firebasestorage.…045-f79b7b7e79d5

8

0

0.3333333333333333

1690366088081

0

[{"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "groupId": "cea99c1c-afb9-49b2-adfa-9be739adce10", "createdTime": 1714318796498}, {"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1714318796509}, {"name": "International Criminal Court", "slug": ...

["israelhamas-conflict-2023", "israel", "international-criminal-court", "bibi-netanyahu"]

0.25

0.5

1715307005247

1715322835185

0.06

YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2

0

0.418208998324316

fgwnKF5pMiGPyrMzZeqJ

{"NO": 182.63858392458667, "YES": 410.6099131365386}

0.24227182481734716

will-ai-fully-automate-cochranestyl-885fefdff6be

1268.5059891744604

Will AI fully automate Cochrane-style systematic reviews by end of 2026?

1798790340000

FbWiKnQPzfVTEzsWD1il51OA8102

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714320997662

Andreas Stuhlmüller

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there exists an AI system by end of 2026 that can produce systematic literature reviews that are indistinguishable in quality from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the reviews at Cochrane", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.12617900993113512}

0

{"creatorFee": 13.88996523764051, "platformFee": 11.346842254686024, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

260

stuhlmueller

1719609654849

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZ3YH78POspeKzDTLFKRS_Ce05R-vQod_-nSt-z3w=s96-c

9

1

0.3333333333333333

1680324230485

0

[{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1714320997823}]

["ai"]

0.25

0.5

1719609651681

1714321021321

0

0.5474646766431239

lL7u52rqPMZBflJeY6Wg

{"NO": 272.40547166247455, "YES": 179.3672300435291}

0.6475502896333831

did-lee-harvey-oswald-kill-john-f-k

120

Did Lee Harvey Oswald kill John F Kennedy?

1735707540000

91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714321403481

Bruce

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rob Reiner has a podcast entitled Who Killed JFK? Some surprising facts emerge especially how inept the Warren Commission report was. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.8600708452263102, "platformFee": 1.8600708452263102, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

220

Bruce54df

1714472692781

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJohJG8pV6APMRLAdPO5Up_LhSInhyxI1tRfhbmvspk=s96-c

6

0

0.3333333333333333

1697633597735

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1714321403673}, {"name": "Assassinations", "slug": "assassinations", "groupId": "5945fe82-7cd4-43c3-8de4-9e8fec5a4c65", "createdTime": 1714321403651}, {"name": "Conspiracy Theories", "slug": "conspiracy-theories", "gr...

["us-politics", "assassinations", "conspiracy-theories"]

0.25

0.5

1714472689491

1714351204589

0

shAbUe7VNDMZpWR7pOwh

is-extropic-ai-a-scam-company

0

Is Extropic AI a scam company?

1716983940000

OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133

none

0

1000000

True

public

1714323177806

jim

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please just make your best guess! ", "type": "text"}]}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716983940399

jim

1714327916638

0

https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f

98

0

0.3333333333333333

1690863320225

0

[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1714323177955}, {"name": "⚡ superconductivity", "slug": "superconductivity", "groupId": "885b1ec2-5cb4-488d-bde7-65bd30d5e3fa", "createdTime": 1714323177975}, {"name": "Extropic AI", "slug": "extropix-ai", "group...

["technology-default", "superconductivity", "extropix-ai"]

0.25

1714327495253

["a3edfef44676"]

0

0.6296712785277419

s4w2Dknpn6YxDodWKPz4

{"NO": 4304.588393231485, "YES": 74.31575411815584}

1

will-manchester-city-beat-tottenham-dd0ebbd8c4bf

4513.6095938604885

Will Manchester City beat Tottenham Hotspur on Tue, May 14, 2024? - Premier League 🇬🇧

1715720746017

gVSlIZ8HxnSaBeCLyhIaQ4F5TVw1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1714323492649

DAC

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Tuesday, May 14, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🏆 Competition: Premier League", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🔑 Market Resolution:", "type"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 16.313354954720694, "platformFee": 16.313354954720694, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715720746017

340

DaAdCh

1715720746017

0

https://firebasestorage.…909-4a3973c6b0af

31

0

0.3333333333333333

1704630344002

0

[{"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1714323492805}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1714323492807}, {"name": "Premier League 2023-2024", "slug": "premier-league-20232024", "groupId": "45a307ca-d75b-4ae8...

["football", "soccer", "premier-league-20232024", "premiere-league", "sports-default"]

0.25

0.5

1715720317726

1715720736478

0.99

gVSlIZ8HxnSaBeCLyhIaQ4F5TVw1

0

0.5433727640151035

gmxVVH4FqMb1rJkL0HXv

{"NO": 182.71870689865196, "YES": 81.45009192411949}

0.7274821960272696

ms-dhoni-will-retire-from-ipl-after

140

MS Dhoni Will retire from IPL after Playing this season of IPL?

1735669740000

WQfTjPifDhVH95Ur8RLIQDF0OYS2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714323658712

Shaikh Niyaz

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.841559102903828, "platformFee": 1.841559102903828, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

120

ShaikhNiyaz

1714638469349

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL3elFZvmUlWaaKLc014e-jjFyF-C_600KOClkMTY-NzoF2T_k2=s96-c

3

0

0.3333333333333333

1714146486603

0

[{"name": "Cricket", "slug": "cricket", "groupId": "LcPYoqxSRdeQMms4lR3g", "createdTime": 1714323659006}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1714323659007}, {"name": "🇮🇳 India", "slug": "india", "groupId": "Y2J00UcVhr3wKq2lAOAy", "createdTime": 171432...

["cricket", "us-politics", "india", "ipl"]

0.25

0.5

1714638466095

0

0.3176043298415013

vsX9is0C6LFkwTaSaDkz

{"NO": 1015.7519342089307, "YES": 916.0567144459218}

0.34040338277219456

biden-to-die-before-2028

1307.3225635756876

Biden to die before 2028 ?

1735669740000

WQfTjPifDhVH95Ur8RLIQDF0OYS2

cpmm-1

0

9.579883122438499

False

basic

public

1714323791769

Shaikh Niyaz

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.048622191245901836}

0

{"creatorFee": 26.607238318555392, "platformFee": 12.724335546691924, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

ShaikhNiyaz

1719360267672

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL3elFZvmUlWaaKLc014e-jjFyF-C_600KOClkMTY-NzoF2T_k2=s96-c

18

2

0.3333333333333333

1714146486603

0

[{"name": "🪦 Death markets", "slug": "death-markets", "groupId": "ibrUJxhFICxDAsXYC7eB", "createdTime": 1714323791968}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1714323791967}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-...

["death-markets", "2024-us-presidential-election", "the-life-of-biden", "gerontocracy"]

0.25

0.5

1719360264606

0

0.4999366391822963

p1jk021WAZCIS4shEiEO

{"NO": 208.6160036943883, "YES": 191.5658925114442}

0.5212397055208512

will-manchester-city-ever-be-punish

51

Will Manchester City ever be punished for their 115 charges?

1798873140000

1HVfKeo13ocYsTubAN98a6qW2YE3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714323962628

Ethan Lou

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Examples include point deductions, automatic relegation, or a hefty fine. Market closes by January 1st 2027 cause why not. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.8600547313932175, "platformFee": 0.8600547313932175, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

200

EthanLou

1714650116535

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI38lRl8IV2OEBMDpcwPyFwRq4Uc9SPdytcNjGf2YxQ=s96-c

6

0

0.3333333333333333

1708631336044

0

[{"name": "UEFA Champions League", "slug": "uefa-champions-league", "groupId": "jgZHnM9QIVaWt6OmPhm3", "createdTime": 1714323962871}, {"name": "Premier League", "slug": "premiere-league", "groupId": "5gsW3dPR3ySBRZCodrgm", "createdTime": 1714323962872}, {"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b...

["uefa-champions-league", "premiere-league", "sports-betting", "soccer", "sports-default"]

0.25

0.5

1714650113267

0

q9sHKMU5GI4x3IlY6f6E

could-manifold-team-pivot-roll-out

231.31129778349947

Could Manifold team "pivot" - roll out real-money bonuses to Russia?

1735671540000

lUGDbuJVTpPyYsXTYXpd4139sE43

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714325017576

Ender Ting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.8637297114057547, "platformFee": 1.8637297114057547, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

325

AnT

1715859578630

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcWkbPJnNa7oUkYFwveuKh1CoCbDrksUco-QNBP=s96-c

6

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "014c719f778d", "prob": 0.7331684287692583, "text": "Team doesn't consider this by end of 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 203.70376170521453, "userId": "lUGDbuJVTpPyYsXTYXpd4139sE43", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 74.13657308274708, "textFts": "'2024':9 'consid':4 'doesn':2 'end':7 'team':1", "contractId": "q9sHKMU...

0.3333333333333333

1686508617605

0

[{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1714325017825}, {"name": "Pivot Predictions", "slug": "pivot-predictions", "groupId": "6iOdS5vCFUBWysZiBH1F", "createdTime": 1714325017827}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e",...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "pivot-predictions", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "russia"]

0.25

1714649572260

1715859576895

True

0

tS6NstL35X0oN5hYlDW2

how-many-of-odots-2024-kpms-will-be

0

How many of ODOT's 2024 KPMs will be scored green?

1714325274276

bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

CANCEL

public

1714325260745

Lukas Day

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "2jIdvPvD2eU1P3xfL5ex", "label": "/LukasDay/2024-oregon-department-of-transport"}}]}]}

NUMBER

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714325274276

100

LukasDay

1714325274276

0

https://firebasestorage.…0ad-0400288973bd

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "01bc18ed67a3", "prob": 0.07142857142857142, "text": "0-1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.8461538461538463, "userId": "bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50, "textFts": "'-1':2 '0':1", "contractId": "tS6NstL35X0oN5hYlDW2", "resolverId": "bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3", "createdTime": 171432526...

0.3333333333333333

1652812495711

True

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1714325261340}, {"name": "US State Government", "slug": "us-state-government", "groupId": "v8YHysZ0MaHi9v8xLl86", "createdTime": 1714325261343}, {"name": "Oregon", "slug": "oregon-3ad789ce7df0", "groupId": "f01139d9-3...

["us-politics", "us-state-government", "oregon-3ad789ce7df0", "transit", "economics-default"]

0.25

bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3

True

0

PjX5VJIDHAW2gVG7YHZO

how-many-of-odots-2024-key-performa

0

How many of ODOT's 2024 Key Performance Measures will be scored green?

1714325685950

bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

CANCEL

public

1714325584690

Lukas Day

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Oregon Law requires that various departments and commission report on legislatively approved Key Performance Measures (KPMs). KPMs ar...

NUMBER

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714325685950

100

LukasDay

1714325685950

0

https://firebasestorage.…0ad-0400288973bd

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "1f572ec27c74", "prob": 0.07142857142857142, "text": "0-1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.8461538461538463, "userId": "bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50, "textFts": "'-1':2 '0':1", "contractId": "PjX5VJIDHAW2gVG7YHZO", "resolverId": "bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3", "createdTime": 171432558...

0.3333333333333333

1652812495711

True

0

[{"name": "US State Government", "slug": "us-state-government", "groupId": "v8YHysZ0MaHi9v8xLl86", "createdTime": 1714325584965}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1714325584981}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq...

["us-state-government", "us-politics", "economics-default", "oregon-3ad789ce7df0", "politics-default"]

0.25

bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3

True

0

EOrgXL07nPXzFdgcSeiA

how-many-of-odots-2024-key-performa-25f16842e332

0

How many of ODOT's 2024 Key Performance Measures will be scored yellow?

1714325656578

bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

CANCEL

public

1714325640427

Lukas Day

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Oregon Law requires that various departments and commission report on legislatively approved Key Performance Measures (KPMs). KPMs ar...

NUMBER

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714325656578

100

LukasDay

1714325656578

0

https://firebasestorage.…0ad-0400288973bd

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "737021e91817", "prob": 0.06666666666666667, "text": "0-1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.5714285714285716, "userId": "bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50, "textFts": "'-1':2 '0':1", "contractId": "EOrgXL07nPXzFdgcSeiA", "resolverId": "bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3", "createdTime": 171432564...

0.3333333333333333

1652812495711

True

0

[{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1714325640692}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1714325640695}, {"name": "US State Government", "slug": "us-state-government", "groupId": "v8YHys...

["economics-default", "us-politics", "us-state-government", "politics-default", "oregon-3ad789ce7df0"]

0.25

bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3

True

0

oFQZcO3n7RxwsjhCACux

how-many-of-odots-2024-key-performa-c1e72c911633

0

How many of ODOT's 2024 Key Performance Measures will be scored green?

1714325716348

bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

CANCEL

public

1714325701868

Lukas Day

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Oregon Law requires that various departments and commission report on legislatively approved Key Performance Measures (KPMs). KPMs ar...

NUMBER

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714325716348

100

LukasDay

1714325716348

0

https://firebasestorage.…0ad-0400288973bd

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "10941f2cf94e", "prob": 0.07142857142857142, "text": "0-1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.8461538461538463, "userId": "bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50, "textFts": "'-1':2 '0':1", "contractId": "oFQZcO3n7RxwsjhCACux", "resolverId": "bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3", "createdTime": 171432570...

0.3333333333333333

1652812495711

True

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1714325702196}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1714325702224}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMs...

["us-politics", "economics-default", "politics-default", "us-state-government", "oregon-3ad789ce7df0"]

0.25

bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3

True

0

oz6TKicV4Z4UU8fWLMjO

how-many-of-odots-2024-key-performa-0bf8d73bdf2c

0

How many of ODOT's 2024 Key Performance Measures will be scored green?

1714325777885

bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

CANCEL

public

1714325756244

Lukas Day

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Oregon Law requires that various departments and commission report on legislatively approved Key Performance Measures (KPMs). KPMs ar...

NUMBER

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714325777885

100

LukasDay

1714325777885

0

https://firebasestorage.…0ad-0400288973bd

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "d99139985f5e", "prob": 0.07142857142857142, "text": "0-1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.8461538461538463, "userId": "bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50, "textFts": "'-1':2 '0':1", "contractId": "oz6TKicV4Z4UU8fWLMjO", "resolverId": "bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3", "createdTime": 171432575...

0.3333333333333333

1652812495711

True

0

[{"name": "US State Government", "slug": "us-state-government", "groupId": "v8YHysZ0MaHi9v8xLl86", "createdTime": 1714325756505}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1714325756514}, {"name": "Oregon", "slug": "oregon-3ad789ce7df0", "groupId": "f01139d9-3...

["us-state-government", "us-politics", "oregon-3ad789ce7df0", "economics-default", "politics-default"]

0.25

bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3

True

0

qTHUOhFtlaXq7yc6oErH

how-many-of-odots-2024-key-performa-5c08e91b6838

0

How many of ODOT's 2024 Key Performance Measures will be scored green?

1727765940000

bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714325812348

Lukas Day

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Oregon Law requires that various departments and commission report on legislatively approved Key Performance Measures (KPMs). KPMs ar...

NUMBER

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

LukasDay

1714325812791

0

https://firebasestorage.…0ad-0400288973bd

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "99a2137ea92e", "prob": 0.07692307692307693, "text": "0-1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.166666666666667, "userId": "bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50, "textFts": "'-1':2 '0':1", "contractId": "qTHUOhFtlaXq7yc6oErH", "createdTime": 1714325812348, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "mon...

0.3333333333333333

1652812495711

0

[{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1714325812769}, {"name": "Oregon", "slug": "oregon-3ad789ce7df0", "groupId": "f01139d9-32a0-42a5-8bfd-d5748a2b986c", "createdTime": 1714325812770}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p8...

["politics-default", "oregon-3ad789ce7df0", "economics-default", "us-politics", "us-state-government"]

0.25

True

0

7CAxhdyo2WjJ7PlnwaIO

how-many-of-odots-2024-key-performa-21ceb97574d0

10.000000000000014

How many of ODOT's 2024 Key Performance Measures will be scored yellow?

1727765940000

bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714325938709

Lukas Day

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Oregon Law requires that various departments and commission report on legislatively approved Key Performance Measures (KPMs). KPMs ar...

NUMBER

0

{"creatorFee": 0.3375798213251234, "platformFee": 0.3375798213251234, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

120

LukasDay

1714344963682

0

https://firebasestorage.…0ad-0400288973bd

1

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "cab6563088a0", "prob": 0.10109745466232149, "text": "0-1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.947443753817858, "userId": "bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 52.88137417916656, "textFts": "'-1':2 '0':1", "contractId": "7CAxhdyo2WjJ7PlnwaIO", "createdTime": 1714325938709, "probChanges": {"day": -4....

0.3333333333333333

1652812495711

0

[{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1714325938960}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1714325938970}, {"name": "US State Government", "slug": "us-state-government", "groupId": "v8YHy...

["politics-default", "economics-default", "us-state-government", "us-politics", "oregon-3ad789ce7df0"]

0.25

1714344960315

True

0

R0MGwjyg5QjJvlU10aPK

how-many-of-odots-2024-key-performa-c5774168c2f6

0

How many of ODOT's 2024 Key Performance Measures will be scored red?

1727765940000

bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714325972822

Lukas Day

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Oregon Law requires that various departments and commission report on legislatively approved Key Performance Measures (KPMs). KPMs ar...

NUMBER

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

LukasDay

1714325973091

0

https://firebasestorage.…0ad-0400288973bd

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "786457941133", "prob": 0.07692307692307693, "text": "0-1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.166666666666667, "userId": "bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50, "textFts": "'-1':2 '0':1", "contractId": "R0MGwjyg5QjJvlU10aPK", "createdTime": 1714325972822, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "mon...

0.3333333333333333

1652812495711

0

[{"name": "US State Government", "slug": "us-state-government", "groupId": "v8YHysZ0MaHi9v8xLl86", "createdTime": 1714325973076}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1714325973080}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpx...

["us-state-government", "economics-default", "politics-default", "us-politics", "oregon-3ad789ce7df0"]

0.25

True

0

0.5

VZChzFjuuY597ZjyYoRw

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

will-lauren-delaguna-ever-be-a-lice

0

Will Lauren De Laguna ever be a licensed practicing attorney in the United States before the end of 2026?

1714334827509

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

CANCEL

public

1714326794186

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714334827509

100

strutheo

1714334827509

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

0

0.3333333333333333

1700846926650

True

0

[{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1714326804491}, {"name": "Law", "slug": "law", "groupId": "721015fa-be97-4989-b9e9-9a5cd25709d6", "createdTime": 1714326813282}, {"name": "Orbiter", "slug": "orbiter", "groupId": "ylRcqUpNq7yuNxAPMHF8", "createdTime": 1714...

["destinygg", "law", "orbiter", "drama"]

0.25

0.5

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

0

0.4614920692302163

m54LDuBviPpm8IQFat0f

{"NO": 964.6553320333599, "YES": 1003.2607114127255}

0.4517562625669492

will-a-language-model-that-runs-loc

1162.5478010854524

Will a language model that runs locally on a consumer cellphone beat GPT4 by EOY 2026?

1798779540000

8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3

cpmm-1

0

9.694230293778954

False

basic

public

1714327514862

Sss

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "GPT4-0314", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the locally run model, we refer to the Language Model alone, not augmented with search/RAG/function_call. It needs a minimum throughput of 4 token...

BINARY

{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.03804749393171081}

0

{"creatorFee": 22.804140798144253, "platformFee": 15.175299672530837, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Sss19971997

1718802544369

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJYstjF0shAAXTwqQnhiZPJhmg3XSDaVGD2Kttp_TCF=s96-c

32

0

0.3333333333333333

1696879998283

0

[{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1714327515051}, {"name": "GPT-4", "slug": "gpt4", "groupId": "eBnKor4XWTFwJQA6TOpd", "createdTime": 1714327515052}, {"name": "ChatGPT", "slug": "chatgpt", "groupId": "lG71NUBORXAsxGmQZo77", "createdTime": 1714327515079}]

["ai", "gpt4", "chatgpt"]

0.25

0.5

1718802541304

1714482128341

0

0.42584868957674255

fKAXIL6rdopjKRou6TLF

{"NO": 62.868536145787964, "YES": 718.6661459075258}

0.060930250894356434

will-another-potential-repub-vp-can

763.2363195195576

Will another potential Repub VP candidate murder a dog to prove they're as ruthless as Noem and close the cruelty gap?

1721015940000

NlGi8mChdPQLAdaq8tkBhsMKfs72

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714327654293

Stephen S Power

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes the day before the Republican National Convention in case the party holds a murder contest for possible VPs. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The dog killing must be public ...

BINARY

{"day": -6.938893903907228e-18, "week": -6.938893903907228e-18, "month": 1.3877787807814457e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.180573540891071, "platformFee": 3.416893060448859, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

180

StephenSPower

1718293067089

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJJakJRZZPV9UKwEj40oeDYqeV9_xpZkUTwTi2oosBE=s96-c

8

0

0.3333333333333333

1696858950851

0

[{"name": "Dogs & Cats", "slug": "dogs-cats", "groupId": "6zfcg4rHWwD11dCW9s2C", "createdTime": 1714327654462}, {"name": "Murder", "slug": "murder", "groupId": "fb3e117a-9407-44b8-a695-3d9432bd114f", "createdTime": 1714327654531}]

["dogs-cats", "murder"]

0.25

0.5

1718293063747

0

0.6785529104063818

4lP96xf6lte6K9D4AwE1

{"NO": 4377.826842761293, "YES": 96.22601555410377}

1

will-the-11foot88-bridge-claim-anot-0ccb5612f11b

4144.95820468685

Will the 11foot8+8 bridge claim a third victim in 2024?

1715158426844

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1714328527640

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The 11foot8+8 is a bridge in North Carolina that is infamous for damaging trucks that pass under without noticing the signs about the low height. It was raised from 11'8\" another 8\" in 2019, but it still catches some vehicles.", "type": "text"}]}...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.502951397437374, "platformFee": 7.502951397437374, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715158426844

340

strutheo

1715158427631

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

14

0

0.3333333333333333

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "Trucking", "slug": "trucking", "groupId": "e05a7cca-41b0-486d-8178-b45fb1311350", "createdTime": 1714328527885}, {"name": "North Carolina", "slug": "north-carolina", "groupId": "945754f5-ff8c-4282-b73f-ad637ff452b6", "createdTime": 1714328528014}, {"name": "Infrastructure", "slug": "infrastructure", "groupId...

["trucking", "north-carolina", "infrastructure", "bridges", "internet"]

0.25

0.5

1715158424131

0.99

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

0

0.4999999999999991

zPiWX9lDJmjNW94bfPJA

{"NO": 994.9874371066194, "YES": 10.050378152592089}

1

will-jim-get-a-professional-haircut

900.7088836250385

Will @jim get a professional haircut in 2024?

1716711632246

OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1714329102846

jim

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.721446518419119, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716711632246

100

jim

1716711632246

0

https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f

1

0

0.3333333333333333

1690863320225

0

[{"name": "Style", "slug": "style", "groupId": "d0248883-5cb7-49f3-8582-7b25866a8791", "createdTime": 1714329102979}, {"name": "Fashion", "slug": "fashion", "groupId": "rN2eHyggdZPkn7dKL9LP", "createdTime": 1714329102996}]

["style", "fashion"]

0.25

0.5

1716711606122

0.99

OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133

0

0.5477123739957145

Bv4ElrqsoPKMLhAEEEPV

{"NO": 366.116292388636, "YES": 79.52866942189907}

0.847905275179877

will-the-11foot88-bridge-claim-a-th

210

Will the 11foot8+8 bridge claim three or more victims in 2025?

1767243540000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714330637442

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The 11foot8+8 is a bridge in North Carolina that is infamous for damaging trucks that pass under without noticing the signs about the low height. It was raised from 11'8\" another 8\" in 2019, but it still catches some vehicles.", "type": "text"}]}...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.084613973342027, "platformFee": 0.7990936380219601, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

160

strutheo

1717415131830

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

6

0

0.3333333333333333

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "🌐 Internet", "slug": "internet", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1714330637596}, {"name": "North Carolina", "slug": "north-carolina", "groupId": "945754f5-ff8c-4282-b73f-ad637ff452b6", "createdTime": 1714330637598}, {"name": "Bridges", "slug": "bridges", "groupId": "383a744d-f504-4e0d-a155...

["internet", "north-carolina", "bridges", "trucking", "infrastructure"]

0.25

0.5

1717415128652

0

0.12119599355052225

7gq29D3q2J0R8HrSq3te

{"NO": 890.5405151380273, "YES": 1412.3676382630908}

0.08000000000000006

will-extropic-be-worth-1-billion-be

894.6193992947977

Will Extropic be worth $1 Billion before 2030? 🦄

1893484740000

UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03

cpmm-1

0

10.111713358809723

False

basic

public

1714331164279

Adrian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 4.163336342344337e-17, "week": 4.163336342344337e-17, "month": 4.163336342344337e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.788177629676142, "platformFee": 5.788177629676142, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

ahalekelly

1716158965824

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c

13

0

0.3333333333333333

1651185961528

0

[{"name": "Extropic AI", "slug": "extropix-ai", "groupId": "c0b1b033-dc21-479e-a0f7-f292a5efad43", "createdTime": 1714331164430}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1714331164431}, {"name": "AI Stocks", "slug": "ai-stocks", "groupId": "Jf4rKNcxovEVEE8CyOgN", "createdTime":...

["extropix-ai", "ai", "ai-stocks", "technology-default"]

0.25

0.5

1716158962274

0

0.2015711024247319

36415j9fHk9wv75VvTDg

{"NO": 84.22434431758222, "YES": 2105.0618341578556}

0

will-the-price-of-bitcoin-hit-73000

2045.1359419824703

Will the price of Bitcoin hit $73,000 in April 2024?

1714535940000

cBLCLDDDjIPnfuIdKIE4sXLKgJH3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1714331759582

PedroA

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.029994785887213, "platformFee": 4.029994785887213, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714570751020

200

pa

1714535940000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtee8W-AS6HtIUteOIjSMBI-pGI8Iq6PnPJYlJs17w=s96-c

5

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1687393389344

0

[{"name": "🅱️ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "createdTime": 1714331759754}, {"name": "Prices", "slug": "prices", "groupId": "ec8ff17e-7276-4586-83a8-7fc5a4a7195f", "createdTime": 1714331759772}, {"name": "Bitcoin maxi", "slug": "bitcoin-maxi", "groupId": "q6y2Gz8Wmy4nZwtfmpHt", "create...

["bitcoin", "prices", "bitcoin-maxi"]

0.25

0.5

1714529872151

0.01

cBLCLDDDjIPnfuIdKIE4sXLKgJH3

0

0.5056235606631718

76TSh4AFuCFi7lcDZbUY

{"NO": 122.06190344514827, "YES": 90.4005291026775}

0.58

will-deadpool-kiss-wolverine-in-the

272.5679275547306

Will Deadpool kiss Wolverine in the Deadpool 3?

1722031140000

9odr0vip3YO8201FeCZFkHwLemn2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714331768966

Ginger Khan

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It's a love-hate relationship after all ... and Deadpool is predictably unpredictable.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.20016390043301208, "month": 0.18253357449044694}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.533306153300016, "platformFee": 1.2732695589769552, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

105

jgould1090Gould

1719799497924

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fjgould1090Gould%2FBe1kJdaKw1.09?alt=media&token=c21d98fa-3b02-4605-b3a7-759cf2a3edb7

9

2

0.3333333333333333

1713951777550

0

[{"name": "Marvel", "slug": "marvel", "groupId": "weefY0ZpfzcPtvFhQMWY", "createdTime": 1714331769112}, {"name": "Marvel Cinematic Universe", "slug": "marvel-cinematic-universe", "groupId": "hIQdGqOuPcrwWMsQGhYd", "createdTime": 1714331769110}, {"name": "Deadpool", "slug": "deadpool", "groupId": "6da87dc8-1406-4ae9-96d...

["marvel", "marvel-cinematic-universe", "deadpool", "superheroes", "deadpool-3"]

0.25

0.5

1719799494773

0

0.24000047317830908

WHqtjM0MgQkrrFVhlFPd

{"NO": 588.4166563508868, "YES": 4837.13870908514}

0

will-the-price-of-bitcoin-hit-72500-ed0e21a1a484

6667.860304523616

Will the price of Bitcoin hit $72,500 in May 2024?

1717214340000

cBLCLDDDjIPnfuIdKIE4sXLKgJH3

cpmm-1

0

10.026306231905409

True

basic

NO

public

1714331780807

PedroA

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.036993417041179}

0

{"creatorFee": 62.39714438864819, "platformFee": 31.41791760234065, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717263346086

1000

pa

1717214340000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtee8W-AS6HtIUteOIjSMBI-pGI8Iq6PnPJYlJs17w=s96-c

21

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1687393389344

0

[{"name": "Bitcoin maxi", "slug": "bitcoin-maxi", "groupId": "q6y2Gz8Wmy4nZwtfmpHt", "createdTime": 1714331780949}, {"name": "🅱️ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "createdTime": 1714331780962}, {"name": "Prices", "slug": "prices", "groupId": "ec8ff17e-7276-4586-83a8-7fc5a4a7195f", "create...

["bitcoin-maxi", "bitcoin", "prices"]

0.25

0.5

1717206476061

1716918493335

0.04

cBLCLDDDjIPnfuIdKIE4sXLKgJH3

0

0.5054614631059859

PlmnVifjpr8hYaeAJVak

{"NO": 131.9608717739939, "YES": 109.28304768004557}

0.5524095056031839

will-the-opening-weekend-of-joker-2

27.192684093038373

Will the opening weekend of Joker 2 surpass the success of its predecessor?

1728251940000

ayZLbC3oEBcprZFExwePWvK8KIr1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714332195537

Gregor Vuk

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In terms of the revenues, reviews don't matter.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.5359700781060194, "platformFee": 0.3104740548617421, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

120

GregorVuk

1717154516310

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJyQN5jdyxaA3tIx3cDD0qFsRSo1CXxlTeCcSbdqdEN3JCUf3SU=s96-c

3

0

0.3333333333333333

1713963808550

0

[{"name": "Joker 🃏", "slug": "joker", "groupId": "976795c3-fe59-4c91-89b0-5360edf42e7d", "createdTime": 1714332195695}, {"name": "Cinema", "slug": "cinema", "groupId": "cwf259E8FrbeHwytqDqP", "createdTime": 1714332195707}]

["joker", "cinema"]

0.25

0.5

1717154512761

0

xRA5LUcpKhyP1z3Er4v9

which-party-will-win-the-most-seats-2e511e22765e

1226.8647145964537

Which party will win the most seats in the next Scottish Parliament Elections?

1714390251318

Jtr9In42trPCfEKKffz8Mu5cRpI2

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

MKT

public

1714332479821

Harry Hayfield

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When all the votes (constituency and regional) are counted, which party will have the greatest number of seats at the next Scottish Parliament election (either scheduled, or caused by the collapse of the government)", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 8.655760455842373, "platformFee": 8.655760455842373, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714390251318

940

HarryHayfield

1714390251318

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKLO6vk94dAyRIB1WNPhDkrZK8ww8OiBc6b0ZnDQw48Zv4=s96-c

11

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "7759f90d91a4", "prob": 0.04, "text": "Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.067080336307491, "userId": "Jtr9In42trPCfEKKffz8Mu5cRpI2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 283.41810550076104, "textFts": "'conserv':2 'parti':5 'scottish':1 'unionist':4", "contractId": "xRA5LUcpKhyP1z3Er4v9...

0.3333333333333333

1708098506766

0

[{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1714332480045}, {"name": "🇬🇧 UK", "slug": "uk", "groupId": "m9vlFjXUHNgGgU9OLK1Y", "createdTime": 1714332480047}, {"name": "🇬🇧 UK General Election 2024", "slug": "-uk-general-election-2024", "groupId": "129aecae-5af3-4...

["uk-politics", "uk", "-uk-general-election-2024"]

0.25

1714390187924

1714390005086

0.04

Jtr9In42trPCfEKKffz8Mu5cRpI2

False

Jtr9In42trPCfEKKffz8Mu5cRpI2

0

0.5533287479087199

6YtAts17drlB8NBZON4V

{"NO": 1454.1542333060002, "YES": 20.551601363826876}

1

will-dortmund-play-in-the-champions

1922.9426695571458

Will Dortmund play in the Champions League 2024/2025?

1714861855943

dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1714333211172

Base

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Dortmund plays in the 2024/2025 Champions League Group stage this market resolves to yes", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.58185549939718, "platformFee": 6.58185549939718, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714861859591

140

Base

1714891886580

0

https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137

5

0

0.3333333333333333

1690298751650

0

[{"name": "UEFA Champions League", "slug": "uefa-champions-league", "groupId": "jgZHnM9QIVaWt6OmPhm3", "createdTime": 1714333211359}, {"name": "Bundesliga", "slug": "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "groupId": "7c53ccd3-1a40-41ca-bd88-dedac17a91a9", "createdTime": 1714333211361}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", ...

["uefa-champions-league", "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "football", "soccer", "uefa"]

0.25

0.5

1714838103762

1714891885198

0.99

dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22

0

0.5653145248516518

B3SaDK3CjeYnY6yj242F

{"NO": 264.8468599149354, "YES": 130.57851422773723}

0.7251068642070085

will-ms-dhoni-remain-actively-assoc

87

Will MS Dhoni remain actively associated with CSK even after retiring?

1806517740000

702EISigGBTva58JNlP5zVU1Jai1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714333533891

Manan Raina Kumar

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will MS Dhoni ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "officially", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " rejoin CSK as a coach/ mentor or participate in decision making for CSK after retiring from Cricket? ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(...

BINARY

{"day": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": 3.3306690738754696e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.0765700425323599, "platformFee": 1.0765700425323599, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

180

MananRainaKumar

1714580147935

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKbMCx5xKdKtkA8G8bCrm9gGxY6kVhuMBRW92Ir8YVKHdDP=s96-c

4

0

0.3333333333333333

1708543093312

0

[{"name": "Cricket", "slug": "cricket", "groupId": "LcPYoqxSRdeQMms4lR3g", "createdTime": 1714333534034}, {"name": "🇮🇳 India", "slug": "india", "groupId": "Y2J00UcVhr3wKq2lAOAy", "createdTime": 1714333534038}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 171433353...

["cricket", "india", "sports-default", "ipl"]

0.25

0.5

1714580144681

0

0.4577230125869432

ss40jhBro5RU6mRsReRI

{"NO": 1068.6283575854895, "YES": 919.2832660753256}

0.49525619131276

will-yamato-be-there-when-luffy-fin

565

Will Yamato be there when Luffy finds the One Piece?

1735707540000

qiwVAxGYF8Yon54kB0K9yxV8lyN2

cpmm-1

0

9.650271973852892

False

basic

public

1714333739499

Xeni R6

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vote YES if you think Yamato will be with the crew in person when Luffy finds the One Piece.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vote NO if you think Yamato will still be in wano or somewhere else...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.004957168704089687, "month": 0.018898777851543425}

0

{"creatorFee": 13.678383469044276, "platformFee": 5.2700286690357805, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

XeniR6

1720086023999

0

https://storage.googleap…B0K9yxV8lyN2.png

22

1

0.3333333333333333

1713568811437

0

[{"name": "Manga", "slug": "manga", "groupId": "0e0wvkjcHdblLOdaK9jp", "createdTime": 1714333739660}, {"name": "One piece theories", "slug": "one-piece-theories", "groupId": "78f2f6a8-571e-44b4-976c-937610a9375b", "createdTime": 1714333739658}, {"name": "🏴‍☠️ One Piece", "slug": "one-piece-stocks", "groupId": "uJSql24...

["manga", "one-piece-theories", "one-piece-stocks", "luffy"]

0.25

0.5

1720086020906

0

PN7iUfzbE3bhmG7jMHWk

will-h5n1-have-spread-to-multiple-p

819.4596686542801

Will H5N1 have spread to multiple pig farms in 2024?

1735685940000

sgTxCk08yEeyapR0FraG0OCw7iU2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1714333823534

Siebe

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will credible future reports claim that H5N1 was spreading in more than 1 pig farm, in any country, at the following dates? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dates refer to when the virus was s...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 13.087361832728378, "platformFee": 11.099933066044928, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1850

Siebe

1718289125765

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH3NbS_g_kaARIrJ75V2BVep2jqxvDne4peP4g9b1xD88=s96-c

25

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "2e21ca970345", "prob": 0.26705206167686873, "text": "Before April 1st, 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 182.03178280880016, "userId": "sgTxCk08yEeyapR0FraG0OCw7iU2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 499.60228384393156, "textFts": "'1st':3 '2024':4 'april':2", "contractId": "PN7iUfzbE3bhmG7jMHWk", "createdTime": 171433...

0.3333333333333333

1700559813116

0

[{"name": "Epidemiology", "slug": "epidemiology", "groupId": "1d5f0c90-a776-4a00-9146-e45643c298cf", "createdTime": 1714333824058}, {"name": "H5N1 Bird Flu", "slug": "h5n1-bird-flu", "groupId": "bjAQEGbYlIgTjDhStoFr", "createdTime": 1714333824062}, {"name": "Public Health", "slug": "public-health", "groupId": "ybln6XDv...

["epidemiology", "h5n1-bird-flu", "public-health", "science-default"]

0.25

1718289122383

1715668965902

False

0

0.4780547580332389

aaZIfCjmFT3t06FLQ2ig

{"NO": 143.4736043924865, "YES": 134.82231408939492}

0.4935893407467613

will-a-current-non-devil-fruit-user

65

Will a current NON devil fruit user of the Strawhat crew eat a devil fruit before the end of the series?

1714575684031

qiwVAxGYF8Yon54kB0K9yxV8lyN2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

CANCEL

public

1714334060282

Xeni R6

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vote YES if you think Zoro, Nami, Ussop, Sanji, Franky, OR Jimbei will consume a devil fruit before the end of the series. This INCLUDES synthesized devil fruits.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vote NO if you think...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.0896064256505784, "platformFee": 1.0896064256505784, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714575684031

140

XeniR6

1714575707290

0

https://storage.googleap…B0K9yxV8lyN2.png

2

0

0.3333333333333333

1713568811437

0

[{"name": "One piece theories", "slug": "one-piece-theories", "groupId": "78f2f6a8-571e-44b4-976c-937610a9375b", "createdTime": 1714334060415}, {"name": "Luffy", "slug": "luffy", "groupId": "a1859f8c-b7f9-4f80-9377-8838c2727e29", "createdTime": 1714334060423}, {"name": "🏴‍☠️ One Piece", "slug": "one-piece-stocks", "gr...

["one-piece-theories", "luffy", "one-piece-stocks", "manga"]

0.25

0.5

1714492437707

1714575705656

0.49

qiwVAxGYF8Yon54kB0K9yxV8lyN2

0

EHGPhiHmHjJa6isnYEYo

which-current-straw-hat-crew-member

278.41063279684533

Which current Straw Hat crew member will be the NEXT to demonstrate their FIRST time using base armament haki?

1741323540000

qiwVAxGYF8Yon54kB0K9yxV8lyN2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714335022922

Xeni R6

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We have already seen Luffy, Zoro, Sanji, Jimbei, and Yamato use base armament haki. Who will be the next? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vote for ‘none of them’ if you believe no more of the...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.164617936080313, "platformFee": 2.635305090439654, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

375

XeniR6

1717706160877

0

https://storage.googleap…B0K9yxV8lyN2.png

8

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "76767116b271", "prob": 0.5699999999999998, "text": "Robin", "index": 0, "poolNo": 129.11877514837633, "userId": "qiwVAxGYF8Yon54kB0K9yxV8lyN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 97.40539177859975, "textFts": "'robin':1", "contractId": "EHGPhiHmHjJa6isnYEYo", "createdTime": 1714335022923, "probChanges": {"day": -1.1...

0.3333333333333333

1713568811437

0

[{"name": "Manga", "slug": "manga", "groupId": "0e0wvkjcHdblLOdaK9jp", "createdTime": 1714335023481}, {"name": "🏴‍☠️ One Piece", "slug": "one-piece-stocks", "groupId": "uJSql24HUqpEpVU0FrjI", "createdTime": 1714335023483}, {"name": "Luffy", "slug": "luffy", "groupId": "a1859f8c-b7f9-4f80-9377-8838c2727e29", "createdTi...

["manga", "one-piece-stocks", "luffy", "one-piece-theories"]

0.25

1717706157725

1714411033792

True

0

0.362886918435416

rBUZGaOE5owSaygAwamz

{"NO": 157.93774645347858, "YES": 269.8745816412512}

0.2500000000000002

debatedly-in-merriam-webster-by-202

338.0859151458695

"Debatedly" in Merriam Webster by 2025-04-29

1745985540000

sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714335529974

Martin Randall

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.352196252948401, "platformFee": 3.492245392997541, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

200

MartinRandall

1716809477526

0

https://firebasestorage.…d20-bee14ed5221b

6

0

0.3333333333333333

1644445070964

0

[{"name": "Linguistics", "slug": "linguistics", "groupId": "A79h2H25jWqaKW1cgLia", "createdTime": 1714335530254}, {"name": "Language", "slug": "language", "groupId": "tegXqevnSJSDlHW3Kbel", "createdTime": 1714335530262}]

["linguistics", "language"]

0.25

0.5

1716809473585

1714336145044

0

ei7ynln3ni5SXS27D49d

after-how-many-weeks-from-now-will

245.91891650581792

After how many weeks from now, will TweetShort hit $1000 MRR (monthly recurring revenue)?

1735718340000

iqThMQnfdjNHoVbA4CIlLyg3oqR2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714337258863

Percy Otebay

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm working on a SaaS (software as a service) called TweetShort, that automatically converts new tweets into short videos, and automatically posts them on Instagram, YouTube Shorts and TikTok. Allowing twitter creators to gain more views, followers...

NUMBER

0

{"creatorFee": 7.404281338618485, "platformFee": 2.9286004461285353, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

760

PercyOtebay

1720031399266

0

https://firebasestorage.…40c-730d3c2e86af

10

2

DISABLED

[{"id": "6ab5f59800c6", "prob": 0.02301498792436341, "text": "0-1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.679862820232358, "userId": "iqThMQnfdjNHoVbA4CIlLyg3oqR2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 410.90966136480375, "textFts": "'-1':2 '0':1", "contractId": "ei7ynln3ni5SXS27D49d", "createdTime": 1714337258863, "probChanges": {"day": 0,...

0.3333333333333333

1695872512261

0

[{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1714337259134}, {"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1714337259133}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 17...

["ai", "twitter", "technology-default"]

0.25

1720031395579

1714446683748

True

0

1pXGuxL4LqCmGF80Zv4H

which-wikipedia-articles-currently

102.26208417989425

Which Wikipedia articles currently below 100k+ monthly page views will surpass 200k+ page views in a month before 2026?

1767243540000

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714337640290

David Glidden

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What relatively unknown ideas, people, places, or things will become relatively well-known in the next few years? Add the title of any Wikipedia article to this market as an answer or leave a comment and I’ll add it for you.", "type": "text"}]}, {"...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.364038062617833, "platformFee": 1.364038062617833, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

240

dglid

1717960023610

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

6

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "ac9b915ac5ea", "prob": 0.34439374262200506, "text": "Transcranial magnetic stimulation", "index": 0, "poolNo": 77.65531191241108, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 147.82878463705185, "textFts": "'magnet':2 'stimul':3 'transcrani':1", "contractId": "1pXGuxL4LqCmGF80Zv4H", "...

0.3333333333333333

1643941084707

0

[{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1714337640530}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1714337640537}, {"name": "Wikipedia", "slug": "wikipedia", "groupId": "E7MBK2i8kaRN0KpBofH3", "c...

["science-default", "technology-default", "wikipedia", "entertainment", "culture-default"]

0.25

1714655875988

1717960022419

False

0

VwsxphK5iYPZDAQ8Tlq0

how-many-riders-will-hold-the-leade

7740.125157593233

How many riders will hold the leader's (pink) jersey at the 2024 Giro d'Italia

1716840138506

fIz9xNapzkhQy39x3hjQ8CdMsy23

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

ba2d1e5d324f

public

1714337729310

Eoghan

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Leading the GC standings at the end OR the start of a stage counts as holding the jersey for the purposes of the question. For example, if Geraint Thomas had lost the overall lead on stage 10 last year, that would still be considered as having held...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 19.633048423641657, "platformFee": 16.457235678195328, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716840138506

1000

Peilbeo

1716840155838

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaB6mFjRkDL9HAjF5cIrfTdpeAQY1DwKj-DKvjxAg=s96-c

11

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "e5f6666b38a3", "prob": 0.0004431069110202725, "text": "1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.3024253382222923, "userId": "fIz9xNapzkhQy39x3hjQ8CdMsy23", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5193.791973011061, "textFts": "'1':1", "contractId": "VwsxphK5iYPZDAQ8Tlq0", "resolverId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "createdTime": 1...

0.3333333333333333

1680902017145

0

[{"name": "🚲 Cycling", "slug": "road-bicycle-racing", "groupId": "2yisxJryUq9V5sG7P6Gy", "createdTime": 1714337729532}, {"name": "Giro d'Italia", "slug": "giro-ditalia", "groupId": "33757f25-5833-41ee-9fd3-806a049981bc", "createdTime": 1714337778298}, {"name": "🚲 Peloton Discord", "slug": "peloton-discord", "groupI...

["road-bicycle-racing", "giro-ditalia", "peloton-discord"]

0.25

1716719397329

1716840154418

{"ba2d1e5d324f": 100}

946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2

True

0

vVEyrgmESrYBvAIPw1QV

after-how-many-months-from-now-will

20.000000000000007

After how many months from now, will I hit $100K MRR (monthly recurring revenue)?

1808981940000

iqThMQnfdjNHoVbA4CIlLyg3oqR2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714338431600

Percy Otebay

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How many months from now, will I hit $100K MRR (monthly recurring revenue)?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "$100K MRR, is $100 000 MRR.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "pa...

NUMBER

0

{"creatorFee": 0.7183770455916199, "platformFee": 0.7183770455916199, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

120

PercyOtebay

1714339091713

0

https://firebasestorage.…40c-730d3c2e86af

2

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "648529325413", "prob": 0.02130116390570433, "text": "0-1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.7497943008453096, "userId": "iqThMQnfdjNHoVbA4CIlLyg3oqR2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 80.39568416179986, "textFts": "'-1':2 '0':1", "contractId": "vVEyrgmESrYBvAIPw1QV", "createdTime": 1714338431600, "probChanges": {"day": 9....

0.3333333333333333

1695872512261

0

0.25

1714339088182

True

0

zIe89UTELs1BBOgFRBGs

after-how-many-months-from-now-will-e6b67e11d76a

9.999999999999991

After how many months from now, will I hit $10K MRR (monthly recurring revenue)?

1798790340000

iqThMQnfdjNHoVbA4CIlLyg3oqR2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714338900703

Percy Otebay

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How many months from now, will I hit $10K MRR (monthly recurring revenue)?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "$10K MRR, is $10 000 MRR.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "parag...

NUMBER

0

{"creatorFee": 0.33542977161843596, "platformFee": 0.33542977161843596, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

PercyOtebay

1714339006003

0

https://firebasestorage.…40c-730d3c2e86af

1

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "5f47d7224aed", "prob": 0.05557498202498112, "text": "0-1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.5013482229405812, "userId": "iqThMQnfdjNHoVbA4CIlLyg3oqR2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 59.50088939122031, "textFts": "'-1':2 '0':1", "contractId": "zIe89UTELs1BBOgFRBGs", "createdTime": 1714338900703, "probChanges": {"day": 0,...

0.3333333333333333

1695872512261

0

0.25

1714339002615

True

0

0.16150882819411663

5QXXEewN7wQbczh1Jcgt

{"NO": 894.5106458318512, "YES": 1369.7087147814038}

0.1117369158327905

will-microsoft-rebrand-by-2028

557.1536897328347

Will Microsoft rebrand by 2028?

1830250740000

OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133

cpmm-1

0

9.888293745911795

False

basic

public

1714338993074

jim

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Microsft changes its name (like facebook -> meta), resolves YES", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": 1.3877787807814457e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.661236133205358, "platformFee": 3.5833304239727957, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

jim

1716829035864

0

https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f

22

0

0.3333333333333333

1690863320225

0

[{"name": "Operating Systems", "slug": "operating-systems", "groupId": "db383ee3-77d4-4190-8295-9b2bcee844d5", "createdTime": 1714338993231}, {"name": "Microsoft", "slug": "microsoft", "groupId": "bKtvk7DIpkrzESy6I3ZK", "createdTime": 1714338993236}, {"name": "Big Tech", "slug": "big-tech", "groupId": "1a9ef4d5-dcc6-46...

["operating-systems", "microsoft", "big-tech", "technology-default"]

0.25

0.5

1716829032067

0

0.6451262172660579

dHVVLZWzKpzIcjC6rRzw

{"NO": 1198.0477560494944, "YES": 892.5930163835953}

0.7093030827478503

will-a-second-regional-us-bank-fail

462

Will a second regional US bank fail in 2024?

1735775940000

0eMHY1DjyfdmMBFOFG2NuQL6SsC2

cpmm-1

0

9.644055575921687

False

basic

public

1714339098416

RS

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Republic First Bank failed on 26th April 2024, will one (or more) other US banks fail in 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if one more entry dated 2024 appears here:", "type":...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.013519980955113198}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.0378130323900745, "platformFee": 6.018133770570447, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

RS

1719004226047

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJzlKSpMTU6TF73bf4F35qkvz5bT2b5kpj4c8dDKDGB=s96-c

25

0

0.3333333333333333

1699404846425

0

[{"name": "Banking", "slug": "banking", "groupId": "7fai1FgMBz3dZQXIO8ug", "createdTime": 1714339098552}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1714339098554}, {"name": "Bankruptcy", "slug": "bankruptcy", "groupId": "VwyOTIzlJdGa6AviEvZK", "createdTime":...

["banking", "economics-default", "bankruptcy", "financial-crisis", "finance"]

0.25

0.5

1719004222905

0

lK4dDcYeCz3Y34LTBugr

what-year-will-vladimir-putin-cease

116.00000000000006

What year will Vladimir Putin cease to be the President of Russia?

3282073140000

nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714339228826

Gaz Downright

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Definition:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": ...

NUMBER

0

{"creatorFee": 4.362447366522328, "platformFee": 4.362447366522328, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

240

GazDownright

1714413875419

0

https://firebasestorage.…03d-44c57f8e25b1

7

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "b34d0e8ee562", "prob": 0.10299873628323795, "text": "2024-2025", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.307674628081579, "userId": "nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 63.64149321399836, "textFts": "'-2025':2 '2024':1", "contractId": "lK4dDcYeCz3Y34LTBugr", "createdTime": 1714339228826, "probChanges":...

0.3333333333333333

1697568039966

0

[{"name": "Putin Succession", "slug": "putin-succession", "groupId": "8b1f5243-6036-4de7-82be-725a612607d7", "createdTime": 1714339229194}, {"name": "🇷🇺 Russia", "slug": "russia", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1714339229204}, {"name": "Vladimir Putin", "slug": "vladimir-putin", "groupId": "GRfh1hX...

["putin-succession", "russia", "vladimir-putin"]

0.25

1714413871013

True

0

aEoSNMgtGVlTUFBVMCHL

lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-73-1476fa02ac6e

150

[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 74)

1714427940000

v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

MKT

public

1714340012663

komplexkonjugat

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let's play Civ6!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Anyone can add instructions. Instructions can be composite, but are executed atomically (either fully or not at all). Upon mark...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.4506009472963497, "platformFee": 1.4506009472963497, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714435485638

140

komplexkonjugat

1714436243621

0

https://firebasestorage.…51b-bd51663a85a0

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "5d6c1eb466c4", "prob": 0.85, "text": "Execute all instructions in @MattCWilson's comment on this answer.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 287.0987981054074, "userId": "v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 51.80165681509802, "textFts": "'answer':10 'comment':7 'execut':1 'instruct':3 'mattcwilson'...

1

0.3333333333333333

1698548141721

0

[{"name": "ManifoldPlaysCiv6", "slug": "manifoldplaysciv6", "groupId": "5fb3f729-faaa-425d-9c1b-c04c78abe1b4", "createdTime": 1714340012861}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1714340012877}]

["manifoldplaysciv6", "gaming"]

0.25

1714370389713

1714436241996

0.85

v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2

False

0

0.17054238046030534

3SYrN966BDyPz6shX8af

{"NO": 158.16237244924383, "YES": 648.8096963975277}

0.04772922837393509

does-exodus-propulsions-propellantl

775.2178522645017

Does Exodus Propulsion's propellantless drive work?

2124791940000

bCl07I6lA5ZuVJGS2k6kNvAomF73

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714340061307

mako yass

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Charles Buhler (Exodus cofounder), claims that a long series of careful tests in many different formats has shown that Exodus's propellantless drive is strong enough to resist gravity (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "meaning that per gram of thruster...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.9145177269988305, "platformFee": 2.9145177269988305, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

240

makoyass

1717991876399

0

https://firebasestorage.…2a2-804c13345c4e

8

0

0.3333333333333333

1668892689777

0

[{"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1714340061444}, {"name": "Physics", "slug": "physics-a6878c3ad095", "groupId": "92473248-f029-4aca-bc21-094d95940b06", "createdTime": 1714340061452}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcp...

["space", "physics-a6878c3ad095", "technology-default", "propellentless-drives"]

0.25

0.5

1714661048077

0

V4zUFukSwCvacJtaUnPm

which-botez-sister-will-win-in-thei

3022.8460062292947

Which Botez sister will win in their OTB chess match on Monday?

1714408745023

FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

0de2f3709411

public

1714341403245

Weezing

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "They got matched in Round 3 of the Sardinia Chess Open B-Group. The match is played tomorrow. It is streamed on their channel (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.twitch.tv/botezlive", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"hre...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 7.010692067319936, "platformFee": 7.010692067319936, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714408745023

340

Weezing

1714408745023

0

https://firebasestorage.…9ac-b0dfa544f276

12

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "0de2f3709411", "prob": 0.9936221912792939, "text": "Alexandra Botez", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1773.3152147578348, "userId": "FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 11.382460396422857, "textFts": "'alexandra':1 'botez':2", "contractId": "V4zUFukSwCvacJtaUnPm", "resolverId": "FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAff...

0.3333333333333333

1700212225777

0

[{"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1714341403444}, {"name": "🧑‍🎤 Celebrities", "slug": "celebrities", "groupId": "4QIcUOfCSSha0JZHAg9X", "createdTime": 1714341403447}, {"name": "Botez Sisters", "slug": "botez-sisters", "groupId": "dl1c3LK8U0RUv1RHrgg1", "createdTi...

["chess", "celebrities", "botez-sisters", "gaming"]

0.25

1714408720261

{"0de2f3709411": 100}

FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1

True

0

0.5123093808468688

1UMy9uXvJvszDY57aA97

{"NO": 135.88705088422248, "YES": 106.29091795588566}

0

will-i-select-a-sunetid-by-end-of-t

16.401506051331474

Will I select a SUnetID by end of Tuesday?

1714546740000

HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1714342033731

Conflux

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A SUnetID is a unique identifier which has to be 3-8 letters or numbers. It goes before @", "type": "text"}, {"text": "stanford.edu", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://stanford.edu", "class": "break-anywhere hover...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.25722758355445874, "platformFee": 0.25722758355445874, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714572178471

120

Conflux

1714572198460

0

https://firebasestorage.…cdd-373b64a5cd17

2

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1640740518271

0

0.25

0.5

1714372834563

1714572195712

0.57

HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433

0

0.5578476100764463

HwsTKULuAIUam4tfcKvg

{"NO": 83.25241187530274, "YES": 395.17090347772876}

1

ilya-susskever-will-come-out-when-g

364

ilya sutskever will re-emerge in public spaces when GPT5 is announced

1715910067190

V1Pfrgoygdh1G3ENMKurmgZRaNl2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1714342460415

Fab Adams

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ilya Susskever has not been seen in twitter space or publicly since the Open AI drama involving Sam Altman. However, he will be doing interviews and talks when GPT-5 is revealed, as any cheif scientist would do.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.252538749789574, "platformFee": 5.252538749789574, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715910067190

200

FabAdams

1715910067190

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJrfsokQ7BN6tUXVVng-0p8hWTP4ZgjRq9vC0MdnEhHT5z_0Bs=s96-c

9

0

0.3333333333333333

1714342129545

0

[{"name": "GPT-5 Speculation", "slug": "gpt5-speculation", "groupId": "XjoIQCNrsc4HP3H3DdTP", "createdTime": 1714342460538}, {"name": "GPT-5", "slug": "gpt5", "groupId": "3eb479df-003d-47a2-8ba4-a41e637176da", "createdTime": 1714342460547}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "cre...

["gpt5-speculation", "gpt5", "openai", "ai", "ilya-sutskever"]

0.25

0.5

1715728457440

1715910010926

0.21

V1Pfrgoygdh1G3ENMKurmgZRaNl2

0

0.25031429561732044

hI5ALCi6wXQWWITMQS8M

{"NO": 484.13267812290223, "YES": 213.64849856321234}

0.43072105272242833

will-jim-ever-try-sex

22291.337555547725

will @jim have sex at any point prior to 2028?

1830250740000

OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133

cpmm-1

0

9.6624227310408

False

play

public

1714342510782

jim

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "if it ever happens, may resolve YES after some delay to preserve privacy ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "pretty much any sexual activity with another person would qualify as sex (must be cons...

BINARY

{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 0.2136112579884252}

0

{"creatorFee": 172.4697048997178, "platformFee": 89.53735694302888, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

420

jim

1719549299007

0

https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f

27

1

0.3333333333333333

1690863320225

0

[{"name": "❤️‍🔥 Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3", "createdTime": 1714342510938}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1714359237369}]

["sex-and-love", "nonpredictive"]

0.25

0.5

False

1719549295937

1718477711328

OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133

0

FUiLdu5sNB0TKZWH0ym4

when-will-there-be-a-new-tall-build

97.45966692414832

When will there be a new tall building in San Francisco's Sunset?

2209103940000

yVqunVRG1WYiUqyTwthyKCpn0Kv1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714342769250

Andrea Allais

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The building must be", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "South of Lincoln, north of Vicente, west of 16th and east of the ocean", "type": "text"}]}]}, ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.4684652204073265, "platformFee": 0.7148734088205217, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

AndreaAllais

1717457871567

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKeAkVjF7t6zGnUy1PJUytznjl5lDFQpFNroSJ3qjJspjI=s96-c

2

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "98a6236962fa", "prob": 0.8845876205068645, "text": "2030-01-01 or earlier", "index": 0, "poolNo": 92.28327027448341, "userId": "yVqunVRG1WYiUqyTwthyKCpn0Kv1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12.040222543113941, "textFts": "'-01':2,3 '2030':1 'earlier':5", "contractId": "FUiLdu5sNB0TKZWH0ym4", "createdTime": 17143...

0.3333333333333333

1708534886669

0

[{"name": "YIMBY", "slug": "yimby", "groupId": "XdplZbYjYVLDXFMis4TU", "createdTime": 1714342769482}, {"name": "San Francisco", "slug": "san-francisco", "groupId": "77nEsKGsORflUYGveLSX", "createdTime": 1714342769509}, {"name": "Architecture", "slug": "architecture", "groupId": "dAIyDroJQEDAky3vGm6i", "createdTime": 17...

["yimby", "san-francisco", "architecture"]

0.25

1717457868408

1714603002836

False

0

0.5019392160211631

yGSLzBwgzu6ga8wGJZLS

{"NO": 122.35423903478977, "YES": 117.69991056844303}

0.5116326716430972

will-oregon-have-more-marijuana-the-49f3e7325411

24

Will Oregon have more marijuana thefts in July than in June?

1722495540000

bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714342856347

Lukas Day

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Oregon Liquor and Cannabis Commission provides a dashboard about documented theft activity at OLCC Recreational Mari...

BINARY

{"day": 4.440892098500626e-16, "week": 4.440892098500626e-16, "month": 4.440892098500626e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.40347850760465087, "platformFee": 0.40347850760465087, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

120

LukasDay

1714430309718

0

https://firebasestorage.…0ad-0400288973bd

2

0

0.3333333333333333

1652812495711

0

[{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1714342856522}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1714342856527}, {"name": "Crime", "slug": "crime", "groupId": "j7TkLdIOLyiTtiQQKjl9", "createdTime": 171...

["law-order", "economics-default", "crime", "marijuana", "oregon-3ad789ce7df0"]

0.25

0.5

1714430306395

0

0.5447581554647721

69K7gekdVvg1dsMeeK5p

{"NO": 177.0205329990992, "YES": 144.6311020688344}

0.5942571358872809

will-oregon-have-more-marijuana-the-9eb9959e451c

84

Will Oregon have more marijuana thefts in August than in July?

1725173940000

bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714342944691

Lukas Day

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Oregon Liquor and Cannabis Commission provides a dashboard about documented theft activity at OLCC Recreational Mari...

BINARY

{"day": 5.551115123125783e-16, "week": 5.551115123125783e-16, "month": 5.551115123125783e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.3370161804717147, "platformFee": 1.3370161804717147, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

160

LukasDay

1714484596472

0

https://firebasestorage.…0ad-0400288973bd

4

0

0.3333333333333333

1652812495711

0

[{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1714342944835}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1714342944846}, {"name": "Marijuana", "slug": "marijuana", "groupId": "3992f6e2-5650-4102-abf7-56a508427...

["law-order", "economics-default", "marijuana", "oregon-3ad789ce7df0", "crime"]

0.25

0.5

1714484593034

0

0.5

HpvQJVEXEWrvPkxezXcM

{"NO": 113.55566773228901, "YES": 88.06253531594133}

0.5632213064865212

will-oregon-have-more-marijuana-the-3b8fd0a54662

14

Will Oregon have more marijuana thefts in September than in August?

1727765940000

bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714343006177

Lukas Day

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Oregon Liquor and Cannabis Commission provides a dashboard about documented theft activity at OLCC Recreational Mari...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.2221661338554958, "platformFee": 0.2221661338554958, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

LukasDay

1714343960220

0

https://firebasestorage.…0ad-0400288973bd

1

0

0.3333333333333333

1652812495711

0

[{"name": "Marijuana", "slug": "marijuana", "groupId": "3992f6e2-5650-4102-abf7-56a508427110", "createdTime": 1714343006332}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1714343006334}, {"name": "Oregon", "slug": "oregon-3ad789ce7df0", "groupId": "f01139d9-32a...

["marijuana", "economics-default", "oregon-3ad789ce7df0", "crime", "law-order"]

0.25

0.5

1714343012126

0

0.5

rtZgViArAtduYNg54Ye9

{"NO": 113.55566773228901, "YES": 88.06253531594133}

0.5632213064865212

will-oregon-have-more-marijuana-the-e77d37206579

14

Will Oregon have more marijuana thefts in October than in September?

1730444340000

bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714343079410

Lukas Day

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Oregon Liquor and Cannabis Commission provides a dashboard about documented theft activity at OLCC Recreational Mari...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.2221661338554958, "platformFee": 0.2221661338554958, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

LukasDay

1714344075090

0

https://firebasestorage.…0ad-0400288973bd

1

0

0.3333333333333333

1652812495711

0

[{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1714343079586}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1714343079597}, {"name": "Oregon", "slug": "oregon-3ad789ce7df0", "groupId": "f01139d9-32a0-42a5-8bfd-d5...

["economics-default", "law-order", "oregon-3ad789ce7df0", "crime", "marijuana"]

0.25

0.5

1714343088676

0

0.5

Zx2s3yVd7j9FQB1jwyuh

{"NO": 113.55566773228901, "YES": 88.06253531594133}

0.5632213064865212

will-oregon-have-more-marijuana-the-d85f4951b6d7

14

Will Oregon have more marijuana thefts in November than in October?

1733039940000

bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714343146433

Lukas Day

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Oregon Liquor and Cannabis Commission provides a dashboard about documented theft activity at OLCC Recreational Mari...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.2221661338554958, "platformFee": 0.2221661338554958, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

LukasDay

1714344900434

0

https://firebasestorage.…0ad-0400288973bd

1

0

0.3333333333333333

1652812495711

0

[{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1714343146571}, {"name": "Marijuana", "slug": "marijuana", "groupId": "3992f6e2-5650-4102-abf7-56a508427110", "createdTime": 1714343146572}, {"name": "Crime", "slug": "crime", "groupId": "j7TkLdIOLyiTtiQQKjl9", "cre...

["economics-default", "marijuana", "crime", "law-order", "oregon-3ad789ce7df0"]

0.25

0.5

1714343153611

0

0.5

fU4beyhLkC02pmwOGGvl

{"NO": 113.55566773228901, "YES": 88.06253531594133}

0.5632213064865212

will-oregon-have-more-marijuana-the-2bf01f3548c8

14

Will Oregon have more marijuana thefts in December than in November?

1735718340000

bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714343194599

Lukas Day

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Oregon Liquor and Cannabis Commission provides a dashboard about documented theft activity at OLCC Recreational Mari...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.2221661338554958, "platformFee": 0.2221661338554958, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

LukasDay

1714344962227

0

https://firebasestorage.…0ad-0400288973bd

1

0

0.3333333333333333

1652812495711

0

[{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1714343194758}, {"name": "Oregon", "slug": "oregon-3ad789ce7df0", "groupId": "f01139d9-32a0-42a5-8bfd-d5748a2b986c", "createdTime": 1714343194759}, {"name": "Crime", "slug": "crime", "groupId": "j7TkLdIOLyiTtiQQKjl9", "creat...

["law-order", "oregon-3ad789ce7df0", "crime", "marijuana", "economics-default"]

0.25

0.5

1714343204992

0

0.359170120640774

WpNscgPNl1tB07YLW2YY

{"NO": 165.25793970017614, "YES": 179.42826393197913}

0.34046205346617

will-extropic-ai-demonstrate-a-work

345.4445230377939

Will Extropic AI demonstrate a working thermo-chip by 2050?

2524629540000

DNxun2AhP2Qn7p8xTRZEEAi7Il12

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714344335059

algorusty

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1784638854798123241"}}]}

BINARY

{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 0.1305847108798257}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.3004144338973616, "platformFee": 2.6918924002817226, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

180

algorusty

1719598006710

0

https://firebasestorage.…b19-c159fd8c5556

5

1

0.3333333333333333

1714343670757

0

[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1714344335206}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1714344335214}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9l...

["technology-default", "ai", "technical-ai-timelines", "science-default", "twitter"]

0.25

0.5

1719598003329

0

0.48429135491909686

eAqWSGGoqFs1RLenfL8M

{"NO": 79.66228830146196, "YES": 335.1187706756327}

0.18249354872751045

metaculus-will-spain-announce-a-sna

217.73062764040895

[Metaculus] Will Spain announce a snap general election before January 2025?

1735815600000

PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714344946290

Mirror Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Will Spain announce a snap general election before January 2025?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the original on Metaculus", "type": "text", "m...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.05057386646111575, "month": -0.05057386646111575}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.014065265613889, "platformFee": 2.136536418344415, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

160

mirrorbot

1720032740205

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0

7

1

0.3333333333333333

1696426201173

0

[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1714344946462}, {"name": "🇪🇸 Spain", "slug": "spain", "groupId": "OGSXjmjjySBpjZC2r5QQ", "createdTime": 1714415400542}, {"name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "groupId": "i5JOzjrK5ZMHPSkhgzoi", "createdTime": 171441540...

["metaculus", "spain", "elections"]

0.25

0.5

1720032737010

0