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Will Phil Hellmuth win 20 or more WSOP bracelets before the end of 2027?
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hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
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play
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1714710089704
chris (strutheo)
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🗳️🏪💸 Ballot Props: Will Missouri raise the state minimum wage to $15 / hour?
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1714710090366
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1714711008960
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cpmm-1
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1714711254858
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By 2027, will it ever become media consensus that a Boeing Whistleblower died by foul play?
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1714715424188
Quroe
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If during the timespan of this event, 3 or more users post a screenshot within 10 minutes of each other (according to a clock presented in their screen captures) of some down detector website failing to ping ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Manifold.M...
BINARY
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Quroe
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0
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["-manifold-bugs", "manifold-6748e065087e"]
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0.5
1719184904580
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0
vyYzjEbTFMaexiR4aG42
which-do-you-vote-as-the-best-meme
0
Which do you vote as the best meme in #memefold from January 2024?
1717384679516
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
none
0
1000000
True
public
1714716249115
chris (strutheo)
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See memes in comments below", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Retroactive voting for jan 2024", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
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0
1717384680676
strutheo
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0
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
19
0
0.3333333333333333
1700846926650
0
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["manifold-6748e065087e", "memes", "manifold-users"]
0.25
1716060071029
["c76f4440380d"]
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0.4999999999999962
7L46EE3N9c8g9YqRUvH7
{"NO": 698.4195787788788, "YES": 14.318040764956873}
1
will-the-price-of-bitcoin-increase
1704.5632059893103
Will the price of Bitcoin increase to over $65000 again over the May 2024?
1715045207356
DffUV8ccLyguh76MbgCPTPynkU92
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
YES
public
1714716591064
Hacker
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What do you think?", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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Hacker
1715045207356
0
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0
0.3333333333333333
1711843135303
0
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["crypto-speculation", "bitcoin", "crypto-prices"]
0.25
0.5
1715045061341
1715045162457
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DffUV8ccLyguh76MbgCPTPynkU92
0
0.13999999999999999
FaBsQqVaB6oic8UHKpRI
{"NO": 98.47390856333452, "YES": 109.90743227062596}
0.1272898374774907
will-shutting-down-ai-is-not-enough
10
Will "Shutting down AI is not enough. We need to de..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
1738368000000
h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1714717435156
Less Wrong
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.046283864687018256, "platformFee": 0.046283864687018256, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
LessWrong
1714718086978
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c
1
0
0.3333333333333333
1706554674237
0
[{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1714717435410}]
["lesswrong-annual-review"]
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1714718083650
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who-will-create-manifolds-meme-of-t
456.41691062017355
Who will create Manifold's Meme of the Year?
1735711140000
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1714717936192
Plasma Ballin'
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Who will be listed as the creator of the meme that wins ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "label": "strutheo"}}, {"text": "'s contest for the best #memefold post of 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 7.045545398691694, "platformFee": 1.3207792607660773, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
350
PlasmaBallin
1717515747421
0
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
4
0
ANYONE
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0.3333333333333333
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0
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["coolfold", "memes", "manifold-6748e065087e"]
0.25
1717515744283
1717346713681
True
0
TOQkWYklb42FLsnX9EJ3
its-end-of-2025-a-global-ai-morator
0
It's end of 2025, a global AI moratorium is in effect, Eliezer Yudkowsky endorses it. What were its decisive causes?
1767236340000
XHM96tFhomccZLbIJvqdyuK0Mns1
cpmm-multi-1
0
1000000
False
play
public
1714718138959
agentofuser
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Endorsement by Eliezer Yudkowsky has to be public", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Has to clearly describe morato...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
agentofuser
1714718139119
0
https://firebasestorage.…961-3e37acd8b0a9
0
0
ANYONE
[]
0.3333333333333333
1642376562561
0
[{"name": "AI Moratorium", "slug": "ai-moratorium", "groupId": "a57472c6-e056-4a9d-89e4-76a6de1d1039", "createdTime": 1714718139102}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1714718139109}, {"name": "Eliezer Yudkowsky", "slug": "eliezer-yudkowsky-25acf68e45f1", "groupId": "sst5...
["ai-moratorium", "ai", "eliezer-yudkowsky-25acf68e45f1", "technology-default", "ai-governance-policy"]
0.25
False
0
0.5
FxjTjCjEun4jc2sxYAcS
{"NO": 87.31640576818427, "YES": 114.5260150371848}
0.4325969011855095
will-a-country-admit-to-having-lost
15
Will a country admit to having lost control of one or more nuclear weapons ?
1799585940000
HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1714718303967
Odoacre
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Weapon goes missing, is stolen, or is otherwise misplaced.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if it happens, else resolves NO at market close", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.2369924814076011, "platformFee": 0.2369924814076011, "liquidityFee": 0}
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100
Odoacre
1714985955873
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https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOdoacre%2Fe8tDh301jg.avatar2?alt=media&token=79f05389-576e-437b-9be9-bda60b4cd21a
1
0
0.3333333333333333
1660254401272
0
[{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1714718304187}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1714718304183}]
["nuclear-risk", "world-default"]
0.25
0.5
1714731624263
1714985892053
0
0.5
MshGkQ12AwcJrUbu0I9y
{"NO": 22.89311228595669, "YES": 436.81260438032695}
0
will-there-be-a-1781-release-of-rus
393
Will there be a 1.78.1 release of Rust?
1718315940000
RPXszWUJv5afTofPxd6xfWJNCgt1
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
NO
public
1714718507563
Alice Ryhl
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Usually when a vulnerability is found in Rust, a patch release is created containing a fix. This question asks whether that will happen during the 1.78 release of Rust.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.3120214502716536}
0
{"creatorFee": 4.81438933658654, "platformFee": 0.6748245204681329, "liquidityFee": 0}
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1718352182744
100
AliceRyhl
1718315940000
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdXRuSDqCRZsjncwnrvl_eAAXmc9awKMmk3hocyr78R=s96-c
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0
1
0.3333333333333333
1692530317202
0
[{"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1714718507813}]
["programming"]
0.25
0.5
1718301172212
0.05
RPXszWUJv5afTofPxd6xfWJNCgt1
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0.5000000000000001
O9KCCOUEszBf7HIXpIYz
{"NO": 8.381152575067858, "YES": 1193.1533175696898}
0
will-the-april-2024-jobs-report-sho
1762.4124550644203
Will the April 2024 jobs report show more jobs added than the expected 240,000? [Short fuse]
1714759308849
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
NO
public
1714718695726
Savior of Plant
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market refers specifically to the nonfarm payrolls number. The report releases on May 3 at 8:30 AM ET.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 10.359408072706652, "platformFee": 10.359408072706652, "liquidityFee": 0}
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1714759308849
100
SaviorofPlant
1714759308849
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
20
0
0.3333333333333333
1698371327350
0
[{"name": "US Economy", "slug": "us-economy", "groupId": "36d1e8d5-2e36-481d-b3e0-42e53c37ecbb", "createdTime": 1714718695901}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1714718695902}, {"name": "Jobs", "slug": "jobs", "groupId": "d5cd7d99-573a-41ea-a067-13acc...
["us-economy", "us-politics", "jobs", "business"]
0.25
0.5
1714752632370
1714741655052
0.01
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
0
jZXgDYzTWCsZTGGyFFEr
who-will-win-the-manifold-goat-tour
76792.00799473467
Who will win the Manifold G.O.A.T. Tournament?
1718007228044
P7rLJmOcMDZGzqOSdPR1AdeH2Lg1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
eaaa42f0b6bf
public
1714719675926
houstonEuler
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve YES for the champion of the Manifold Greatest of All Time (G.O.A.T.) tournament, which will take place from May 5th to June 9th, 2024.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The current r...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
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0
1718007228044
1850
houstonEuler
1718030345620
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7b-0ce121292ad7
65
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DISABLED
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["culture-default", "technology-default", "science-default", "politics-default", "manifold-6748e065087e"]
0.25
1718003505876
1718030343503
{"eaaa42f0b6bf": 100}
P7rLJmOcMDZGzqOSdPR1AdeH2Lg1
True
prob-desc
0
LUR4nZ45zGSq0h0vG614
how-many-people-will-be-killed-in-t-d9039de6f59e
160
How many people will be killed in the next major mass shooting (more than 10 killed) in the US?
1861880340000
HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1714720021823
Daniel
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm defining a major mass shooting to be one that kills more than 10 people (excluding the perpetrator). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "20 people version:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "ifra...
NUMBER
0
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0
100
Daniel_MC
1718668306609
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c
2
0
DISABLED
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1678868464369
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[{"name": "🪦 Death markets", "slug": "death-markets", "groupId": "ibrUJxhFICxDAsXYC7eB", "createdTime": 1714721538799}, {"name": "Terrorism", "slug": "terrorism", "groupId": "dWSuGqoMKLTROX8ar0Fz", "createdTime": 1714721546848}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "cr...
["death-markets", "terrorism", "us-politics"]
0.25
1718668302857
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cAkC46av7UzCABp7ZfvX
how-many-people-will-be-killed-in-t-6fce84f1f1ee
37.57866783547193
How many people will be killed in the next major mass shooting (20 killed) in the US?
1861880340000
HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1714720403509
Daniel
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm defining a major mass shooting to be one that kills 20 or more people (excluding the perpetrator). ", "type": "text"}]}]}
NUMBER
0
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0
100
Daniel_MC
1714925601268
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c
1
0
DISABLED
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0.3333333333333333
1678868464369
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[{"name": "🪦 Death markets", "slug": "death-markets", "groupId": "ibrUJxhFICxDAsXYC7eB", "createdTime": 1714721568059}, {"name": "Terrorism", "slug": "terrorism", "groupId": "dWSuGqoMKLTROX8ar0Fz", "createdTime": 1714721573971}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "cr...
["death-markets", "terrorism", "us-politics"]
0.25
1714925597492
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0
q4aHzfFCumzuGVJjIUTe
how-many-people-will-be-killed-in-t-cbef85eaa0dd
0
How many people will be killed in the next major mass shooting (20 killed) in the US?
1714721103123
HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2
cpmm-multi-1
0
1
True
play
CANCEL
public
1714720407083
Daniel
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm defining a major mass shooting to be one that kills 20 or more people (excluding the perpetrator). ", "type": "text"}]}]}
NUMBER
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
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1714721103123
100
Daniel_MC
1714721103123
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c
0
0
DISABLED
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0.3333333333333333
1678868464369
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HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2
True
0
afrDpH3wVte9AoEr3whs
when-will-a-single-shooting-inciden
104
When will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US?
1861880340000
HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1714721481740
Daniel
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 1.371686666845685, "platformFee": 1.017952147933256, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
100
Daniel_MC
1719491888229
0
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3
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