CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

qqtvoyZoBnbIEZhxCuom

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Mh

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Mh

1719938384057

0

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ANYONE

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["scotland", "scottish-politics"]

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1719938380939

1716650498293

True

0

tCR44DScVgFitzlbntYM

the-most-popular-wikipedia-article-fb023aa451cf

8463.993843537328

The most popular Wikipedia article in May 2024? (excl. past winners)

1717365540000

TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

0016a250d3c5

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1714829434628

Tomek ⚡ K

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0.25

1717318061931

1717461457222

{"0016a250d3c5": 100}

TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2

True

prob-desc

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0.13999999999999993

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{"NO": 132.28098392098005, "YES": 17.933238596779752}

0.5456184017768091

will-my-hour-of-memoryless-lucidity

175.8252534270915

Will "My hour of memoryless lucidity" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

1769904000000

h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714830274081

Less Wrong

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BINARY

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0

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10

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LessWrong

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1720205645686

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which-pieces-of-lost-media-will-be

14

Which pieces of lost media will be found by 2030? [ADD RESPONSES]

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cpmm-multi-1

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10.586609649448985

False

play

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1714831503863

A. Dings

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ADings

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1

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ANYONE

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1715208814295

1715209475370

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is-the-pivotsweepstake-with-cash-pr

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Is the pivot(sweepstake with cash prize) a correct move?

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none

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Ammon Lam

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POLL

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AmmonLam

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0.25

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vanity-license-plate-challenge-capt

529.2602587842512

Vanity License Plate Civil War - Capture Order of Remaining States

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cpmm-multi-1

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10.586609649448985

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play

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1714835192841

Stop Punting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Refers to the following competition:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/StopPunting/manifold-competition-state-vanity-l", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content"...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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StopPunting

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0.25

1717028642901

1715693767594

False

0

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when-gpt5-comes-out-will-more-manif

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When GPT-5 comes out, will more Manifold users say it exceeded or fell below expectations?

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cpmm-multi-1

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10.586609649448985

False

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PhilosophyBear

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MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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PhilosophyBear

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0.25

1710984242506

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0.25

1718343405311

1714847403838

True

0

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what-will-paramount-studios-para-se

1052.0938513244462

What will Paramount Studios $PARA sell for? (in May)

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cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

MKT

public

1714836932397

Donut Throw

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MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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DonutThrow

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3

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1717203855070

1717283796241

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0

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trump-has-broken-a-gag-order-twice-ed6c3c29b4a7

0

“Trump has broken a gag order twice. Will he do it again in same Manhattan Court” is referring to what Trump Trial?

1716091140000

dYLpkCCilcRnDhTXK5eSX0oHK3x1

none

0

1000000

True

public

1714837343322

ReeMARKable

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Based only on the information provided, what criminal trial do you think this question is referencing? ", "type": "text"}]}]}

POLL

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1716091141263

ReeMARKable

1716091131716

0

https://firebasestorage.…198-b06ea07e9f66

13

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1697544913258

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["court-cases", "law-order", "donald-trump", "debate"]

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{"NO": 49.882396938761566, "YES": 200.47152129190118}

0.19924751843828778

will-i-bayesian-buy-back-my-previou

147.40150605133147

Will I (@Bayesian) buy back my previous networth's worth of mana before July?

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cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

CANCEL

public

1714838757227

Bayesian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I had roughly 237k mana in networth, and I donated roughly 200k mana. Will I buy it back once it is 10x devalued? The precise requirement is that I buy enough mana after the pivot to go back to a networth within 10k of what I had in the days leadin...

BINARY

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will-drake-release-another-diss-tra

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Will Drake release a diss track response to Kendrick Lamar's Meet the Grahams within 72 hours of it releasing?

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cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

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chris (strutheo)

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BINARY

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1714959542671

100

strutheo

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1700846926650

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0.25

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1714959538631

1714959609361

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will-drake-release-a-diss-track-res

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Will Drake release a diss track response to Kendrick Lamar's Meet the Grahams within one week of it releasing?

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cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

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1714839225758

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FKnFQjPY9VG.png?alt=media&token=dc770078-90c2-492c-80c5-35ce1f8e5282", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wiki...

BINARY

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0.2872135792333351

will-drake-be-found-guilty-of-a-cri

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cpmm-1

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1714840470357

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be charged indicted and found guilty of at least one crime even if it is not the original one he is charged with", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "CwCYXo...

BINARY

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1700846926650

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Will "Killing Socrates" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

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cpmm-1

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Less Wrong

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Plasma Ballin'

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