CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

b4filXXb4EgH3bxLoPAL

which-city-will-be-the-next-to-get-2fc7c44cfe4e

2139.4818879709283

Which city will be the next to get a MLB baseball team?

1861937940000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714876414179

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves 50% if two are chosen at same time", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "Zey9Jhf4G49VKQeHsOfJ", "label": "/strutheo/which-city-will-be-the-next-to-get"}}...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 3.822844699836505, "platformFee": 3.822844699836505, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

150

strutheo

1715780068632

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

7

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "b9e7d2a1597b", "prob": 0.002898932203202839, "text": "Montreal", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.5928108317616534, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 547.8546132928391, "textFts": "'montreal':1", "contractId": "b4filXXb4EgH3bxLoPAL", "createdTime": 1714876414179, "probChanges": {"da...

0.25

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1714876414677}, {"name": "Athletics", "slug": "athletics", "groupId": "NGvSDFGfvMUpsDoIl6hD", "createdTime": 1714876414678}, {"name": "⚾ Baseball", "slug": "baseball", "groupId": "786nRQzgVyUnuUtaLTGW", "createdTime": 17...

["sports-default", "athletics", "baseball", "culture-default", "mlb"]

0.25

1715780065296

1714939171591

True

prob-desc

0

9dFfrnRBR5jhyvSRRjZe

how-will-the-34-felony-counts-of-do

3772.3087656705547

How will the 34 felony counts of Donald Trump's Stormy Daniels/Hush Money felony trial proportionately resolve?

1717103418869

cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

1b358769ab71

public

1714876638747

Dan

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date may be extended as long as the outcome is unclear.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "proportionately", "type": "text", "marks": ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 27.087361636973096, "platformFee": 6.3879325736177535, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717103418869

1000

DanMan314

1717103418869

0

https://firebasestorage.…9e0-a993f643533a

22

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "1b358769ab71", "prob": 0.9818215329288608, "text": "Guilty", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1605.498583344663, "userId": "cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 29.725873950868447, "textFts": "'guilti':1", "contractId": "9dFfrnRBR5jhyvSRRjZe", "resolverId": "cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1", "createdT...

0.25

1673046794414

0

[{"name": "Trial of the Century", "slug": "trial-of-the-century", "groupId": "usp0cQDi8y1YG1CCmpfn", "createdTime": 1714876639139}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1714876639147}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDq...

["trial-of-the-century", "donald-trump", "us-politics", "politics-default"]

0.25

1717103335172

1716310913590

{"1b358769ab71": 100}

cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1

True

0

T8pYHPyqYByXdLVtT7nK

in-new-york-city-what-will-be-the-h-49879bff4f0c

323

In New York City, what will be the high temperature on May 5, 2024?

1714928400000

JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

8be98980328f

public

1714877639225

Stuart Slagle

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will close at 12:00 PM ET on the day of interest and will be verified with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/usa/new-york/historic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.9391098907002424, "platformFee": 1.9391098907002424, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714996106190

175

ovals

1714928400000

0

https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717

6

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "137261d1da2c", "prob": 0.013388141468636773, "text": "68F +", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.161207845670329, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 306.6517496823351, "textFts": "'68f':1", "contractId": "T8pYHPyqYByXdLVtT7nK", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime...

1

0.25

1697477345360

0

[{"name": "🪸 Climate", "slug": "climate", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw", "createdTime": 1714877639619}, {"name": "New York", "slug": "new-york", "groupId": "WHYL7vwzRusHiIbe3uRu", "createdTime": 1714877639620}, {"name": "High Temperature", "slug": "high-temperature", "groupId": "e9da999c-dd54-4492-960f-ed7520bc2c5...

["climate", "new-york", "high-temperature", "weather"]

0.25

1714926481955

1714996099351

{"8be98980328f": 100}

JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1

True

0

0.5000000000000001

FLMymbEneD2zhtpSLuab

{"NO": 86.4776331845744, "YES": 115.63683731556806}

0.4278646302294989

will-drew-lock-start-a-game-at-qb-f

24

Will Drew Lock start a game at QB for the Giants in Weeks 1-6?

1730347140000

BrBG7QaUHeMrx3ZXPqy5AxfeFTw2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714877655786

pitstop

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Of the 2024 regular season", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.38635897661191504, "platformFee": 0.38635897661191504, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

pitstop

1715306809822

0

https://firebasestorage.…ef4-21f1275c128a

3

0

0.25

1661266134199

0

[{"name": "New York Giants", "slug": "new-york-giants", "groupId": "e281554f-05ae-45c0-bbfe-914da33b7a66", "createdTime": 1714877656087}, {"name": "🏈 NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1714877656103}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "...

["new-york-giants", "nfl", "football", "sports-default"]

0.25

0.5

1715306806443

0

kZ4SWvv1LGmx6fwOky9T

in-san-francisco-what-will-be-the-h-f68078b31624

168.750838119888

In San Francisco, what will be the high temperature on May 5, 2024?

1714935600000

JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

c5eddf2e63dd

public

1714878005125

Stuart Slagle

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will close at 12:00 PM PT on the day of interest and will be verified with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/usa/san-francisco/historic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 2.165280101910396, "platformFee": 2.165280101910396, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714996212847

175

ovals

1714935600000

0

https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717

5

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "8a7e0593c3a7", "prob": 0.03897708170750757, "text": "62F +", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.193996384145934, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 177.37591159745295, "textFts": "'62f':1", "contractId": "kZ4SWvv1LGmx6fwOky9T", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime...

1

0.25

1697477345360

0

[{"name": "🌧️ Weather", "slug": "weather", "groupId": "Vw7PuCkPJlK51z43wA4k", "createdTime": 1714878005550}, {"name": "San Francisco", "slug": "san-francisco", "groupId": "77nEsKGsORflUYGveLSX", "createdTime": 1714878005558}, {"name": "🪸 Climate", "slug": "climate", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw", "createdTime": 1...

["weather", "san-francisco", "climate", "high-temperature"]

0.25

1714934891870

1714996204451

{"c5eddf2e63dd": 100}

JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1

True

0

0.4999999999999992

yBL7YBiOvZrC21b58T59

{"NO": 12.327629237670862, "YES": 811.185979656339}

0

will-our-friend-m-win-the-first-gam

7510.877595235145

Will our friend M win the first game of Mario Party 3 tonight

1714896724741

uSMp7YeHLwZmrEtqrqlgT41ds5K2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1714878036985

Shelvacu

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note: this would've been a private market but those aren't allowed anymore. Expect me and my friend group to have more information then you, but otherwise bet if you like.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content":...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 38.73759182904662, "platformFee": 38.73759182904662, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714896742972

100

Shelvacu

1714896770907

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8d-63bc6f7bd3d2

6

0

0.25

1670441671530

0

0.25

0.5

1714896712241

1714896769690

0.01

uSMp7YeHLwZmrEtqrqlgT41ds5K2

0

0.49999999999999833

GhQt1jHYDkFUD5H8xENt

{"NO": 808.434017404562, "YES": 12.36959329359319}

1

will-jimmy-carter-be-alive-at-the-e-147a1eb228a9

2455.5019337360777

Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on May 5?

1714971540000

ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1714878309873

Jimmy Carter Death Markets

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will be changing to adjust to the pivot. Details soon.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jimmy ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.014039927784475, "platformFee": 5.014039927784475, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715041777879

100

JCDM

1714971540000

0

https://firebasestorage.…31d-01d8ae732bec

18

0

1

0.25

1703455433441

0

[{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1714878310193}, {"name": "Jimmy Carter Daily", "slug": "jimmy-carter-daily", "groupId": "19215cc1-e005-4008-80ba-e4df0c64d06f", "createdTime": 1714878310190}, {"name": "Public Figures", "slug": "publ...

["entertainment", "jimmy-carter-daily", "public-figures", "jimmy-carter", "longevity"]

0.25

0.5

1714971117785

0.98

ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1

0

J6OFTuMFvS77yORAbsDv

who-scores-the-overtime-game-winner

310

Who scores the overtime game winner for the Toronto v. Boston NHL game 7?

1714879325218

11Lpvk5hfrf2GIgsWssdC8InM0q1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

cb848bcf25d1

public

1714878406303

Rick

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve once the box score finalizes on NHL.com", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.nhl.com/gamecenter/bos-vs-tor/2024/05/04/2023030127", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link"...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 2.968885226726994, "platformFee": 2.968885226726994, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714879325218

175

RickWilson

1714879325218

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJuHWYOwfCSzo_6gdp37uY-xxvzw2hYUikKW0GXzBwovUc=s96-c

1

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "312eb39ec9a1", "prob": 0.014891970510879256, "text": "Marchand", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.149875451789796, "userId": "11Lpvk5hfrf2GIgsWssdC8InM0q1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 274.5154260110438, "textFts": "'marchand':1", "contractId": "J6OFTuMFvS77yORAbsDv", "resolverId": "11Lpvk5hfrf2GIgsWssdC8InM0q1", "cre...

0.25

1702601732206

0

[{"name": "NHL 🏒", "slug": "nhl", "groupId": "lccgApXa1l7O5ZH3XfhH", "createdTime": 1714878406720}, {"name": "Hockey", "slug": "hockey", "groupId": "tYP9jmPPjoX29KfzE4l5", "createdTime": 1714878406733}]

["nhl", "hockey"]

0.25

1714879311492

{"cb848bcf25d1": 100}

11Lpvk5hfrf2GIgsWssdC8InM0q1

True

0

0.2462804834426307

6dwu9i91o9xSZIjtCn5Q

{"NO": 1429.9999540316169, "YES": 1622.5736341011554}

0.22358623855174156

will-delve-be-said-by-anyone-in-a-u

2971.1519103821297

Will "delve" be said by anyone in a US presidential debate in 2024?

1731128340000

KQIZEaeOOwVatEt07ktQ1mV4CMk1

cpmm-1

0

9.145406577722667

False

basic

public

1714878894181

nsokolsky

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Including moderators, only during the actual debate, not the pre- or post- discussions of the debate. Any variant of delve counts: delves, delved, delving, delve. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text...

BINARY

{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.007174427459498617, "month": -0.022726953491383567}

0

{"creatorFee": 39.78337690960431, "platformFee": 29.75381360518827, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1500

nsokolsky

1719865335668

0

https://firebasestorage.…3fd-0bf53e95c42d

42

1

0.25

1652590573616

0

[{"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1714878894560}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1714878894562}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election"...

["the-life-of-biden", "donald-trump", "2024-us-presidential-election"]

0.25

0.5

1719721292014

1719865334132

0

FOkyzAgWjzk95OcQTwfH

which-jockey-will-win-the-most-race-efb6554bffbb

270.95198732994

Which jockey will win the most races at Churchill Downs on May 9th?

1715300580000

JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

MKT

public

1714878907038

Stuart Slagle

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will be verified with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Equibase.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://Equibase.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-prima...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 2.8374443133788843, "platformFee": 2.8374443133788843, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715306306003

200

ovals

1715306324649

0

https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "b8175a788093", "prob": 0.18, "text": "Irad Ortiz, Jr.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.713032141645474, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 53.35936864527367, "textFts": "'irad':1 'jr':3 'ortiz':2", "contractId": "FOkyzAgWjzk95OcQTwfH", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsa...

1

0.25

1697477345360

0

[{"name": "Churchill Downs", "slug": "churchill-downs", "groupId": "2a71d897-9cc4-47fc-a401-6ea0174eabe1", "createdTime": 1714878907479}, {"name": "Horse racing", "slug": "horse-racing", "groupId": "ef96178c-314c-4aed-be84-e13d3875ff06", "createdTime": 1714878907461}, {"name": "Jockey", "slug": "jockey", "groupId": "38...

["churchill-downs", "horse-racing", "jockey", "sports-default"]

0.25

1714893418399

1715306323383

0.17

JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1

False

0

bUwe8Nfn2dL6PREC4AWf

in-chicago-what-will-be-the-high-te-d8b4a640ad25

240

In Chicago, what will be the high temperature on May 5, 2024?

1714924800000

JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

8b4612965b19

public

1714879401613

Stuart Slagle

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will close at 12:00 PM CT on the day of interest and will be verified with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/usa/chicago/historic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs"...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.122517794229224, "platformFee": 1.122517794229224, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714958912954

175

ovals

1714924800000

0

https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717

4

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "07b582fa7e95", "prob": 0.015981195715767973, "text": "78F +", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.552347058262647, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 280.30412671428735, "textFts": "'78f':1", "contractId": "bUwe8Nfn2dL6PREC4AWf", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTim...

1

0.25

1697477345360

0

[{"name": "🪸 Climate", "slug": "climate", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw", "createdTime": 1714879402109}, {"name": "High Temperature", "slug": "high-temperature", "groupId": "e9da999c-dd54-4492-960f-ed7520bc2c56", "createdTime": 1714879402108}, {"name": "Chicago", "slug": "chicago", "groupId": "Z7gLS1Ih9mM5ayTk86JM"...

["climate", "high-temperature", "chicago", "weather"]

0.25

1714915772461

1714958906611

{"8b4612965b19": 100}

JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1

True

0

z3gHWCQxkzAx5tZlOVP3

which-horse-will-win-the-2024-preak-d7c6f8a4aeb3

7543.094686475294

Which horse will win the 2024 Preakness Stakes?

1716073260000

JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

MKT

public

1714880109795

Stuart Slagle

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will be resolved with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Equibase.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://Equibase.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-prima...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 36.844364090171396, "platformFee": 36.844364090171396, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716074318750

1000

ovals

1716073260000

0

https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717

21

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "a01f9ff67455", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Fierceness", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.5125945381480363, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 248.74685927665496, "textFts": "'fierc':1", "contractId": "z3gHWCQxkzAx5tZlOVP3", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1",...

1

0.25

1697477345360

0

[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1714880110231}, {"name": "Pimlico", "slug": "pimlico", "groupId": "57372f56-50ff-49be-b8d0-0055d767204e", "createdTime": 1714880110229}, {"name": "Horse racing", "slug": "horse-racing", "groupId": "ef96178c-314c-4aed-be8...

["sports-default", "pimlico", "horse-racing", "preakness", "gradegroup-1-race"]

0.25

1716063282468

0.18

JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1

False

0

XFNtTZyhyC44YTAbCTQ9

which-horse-will-win-the-2024-belmo-77661cde04af

22492.326035564038

Which horse will win the 2024 Belmont Stakes?

1717879440000

JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

MKT

public

1714880336018

Stuart Slagle

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will be resolved with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Equibase.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://Equibase.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-prima...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 185.1445225668963, "platformFee": 10.36397371901569, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717904321929

2200

ovals

1717905903998

0

https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717

25

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "da9b57911050", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Fierceness", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.1089922088776234, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 307.7902286788844, "textFts": "'fierc':1", "contractId": "XFNtTZyhyC44YTAbCTQ9", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", ...

1

0.25

1697477345360

0

[{"name": "Belmont Stakes", "slug": "belmont-stakes", "groupId": "e6d8a5a7-a4da-47bf-8373-21cfd9a6a591", "createdTime": 1714880336607}, {"name": "Saratoga", "slug": "saratoga", "groupId": "befd6ae6-c844-425a-80d4-a2a619ebeeb4", "createdTime": 1714880336608}, {"name": "Horse racing", "slug": "horse-racing", "groupId": "...

["belmont-stakes", "saratoga", "horse-racing", "sports-default", "gradegroup-1-race"]

0.25

1717877191852

1717905902595

0.2

JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1

False

0

SPV7qWUQQDvEwdXnxbfI

what-will-be-true-of-quentin-tarant

911.2626736188654

What will be true of Quentin Tarantino's "final" (next) film?

1861948740000

KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714880666852

stefanie

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In April 2024, Quentin Tarantino announced he was ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "dropping his final film ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deadline.com/2024/04/quentin-tarantino-final-film-wont-be-the-movie-cri...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 8.681619875794354, "platformFee": 8.14624899540349, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

shankypanky

1716481105175

0

https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108

28

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "92b73fa108e3", "prob": 0.3883006025751067, "text": "at least three of the actors: Brad Pitt, Zoe Bell, Samuel L Jackson, Michael Madsen, Tim Roth, Uma Thurman", "index": 0, "poolNo": 26.71974632644997, "userId": "KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 42.092267225040025, "textFts": "'actor...

0.25

1698976802308

0

[{"name": "Hollywood", "slug": "hollywood", "groupId": "qnJlrpEJJ1i5tEJ6J2jM", "createdTime": 1714880667319}, {"name": "Prop Bets", "slug": "prop-bets", "groupId": "64e721a5-ed88-4480-9b00-c00a7d4d1e2d", "createdTime": 1714880667333}, {"name": "Quentin Tarantino", "slug": "quentin-tarantino", "groupId": "de3110c0-66b4-...

["hollywood", "prop-bets", "quentin-tarantino", "movies", "television-film"]

0.25

1716481101729

1715892844917

False

new

0

huZz6Zu3JzlM5Q7NFQST

what-will-be-my-four-favorite-films

1746.9292626190586

What will be my four favorite films on Letterboxd?

1715051792263

JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

CHOOSE_MULTIPLE

public

1714880677798

Joshua

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I just joined I'm trying to decide what my four favorite films should be listed as. Each correct answer will resolve to 25%. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I won't bet or tell anyone the ans...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 24.78025130952314, "platformFee": 24.78025130952314, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715051792263

725

Joshua

1715051792263

0

https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f

11

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "4defbafabe79", "prob": 0.0068450477296164245, "text": "Parasite", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.337418910940682, "userId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 774.4115502375587, "textFts": "'parasit':1", "contractId": "huZz6Zu3JzlM5Q7NFQST", "resolverId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "cre...

0.25

1645516283433

0

[{"name": "📺 Television & Film", "slug": "television-film", "groupId": "EUSEngFk1dGGBfaMeAmh", "createdTime": 1714880678182}, {"name": "🎥 Movies", "slug": "movies", "groupId": "KSeNIu7AWgiBBM5FqVuB", "createdTime": 1714880678248}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fO...

["television-film", "movies", "entertainment", "culture-default"]

0.25

1715051575847

1715051756336

{"12e84362a75b": 25, "15d51c3646ef": 25, "2eb320cdd337": 25, "440a8d190ecb": 25}

JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2

True

0

0.688295290229089

6nVOpGJbBkR21UrCN0vi

{"NO": 382.2072830185446, "YES": 80.05750354379418}

0.9133608753600926

will-xi-jinping-and-putin-still-be

401.06735847565295

Will Xi Jinping and Putin still be elected officials when the US has a new President?

1735711140000

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714882362283

Keenen W

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "New = not President before. The new president doesn't have to be elected in.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if both are elected officials", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.700051157127843, "platformFee": 2.700051157127843, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

150

KeenenW

1715449806655

0

https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb

9

0

0.25

1697247005528

0

[{"name": "Xi Putin", "slug": "xi-putin", "groupId": "e3ff0761-ee9f-48a5-92c7-d28d258b61d3", "createdTime": 1714882362647}, {"name": "🇷🇺 Russia", "slug": "russia", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1714882362646}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", ...

["xi-putin", "russia", "politics-default", "us-politics", "china"]

0.25

0.5

1715449803379

0

0.5

SkApxerLpOBAerdvxwvB

{"NO": 137.09739883051142, "YES": 72.94084413930162}

0.6527258888288036

will-xi-jinping-and-putin-still-be-e0e31e569475

100

Will Xi Jinping and Putin still be elected officials after the the next time an Incumbent is elected as president in US?

1738475940000

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714882591920

Keenen W

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current Incumbent: Joe Biden", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if both are elected officials", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves 50% if only on...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.034157771099647016}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.5817656487679363, "platformFee": 1.333175543835582, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

KeenenW

1719063375824

0

https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb

4

0

0.25

1697247005528

0

[{"name": "🇷🇺 Russia", "slug": "russia", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1714882592306}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1714882592302}, {"name": "🇨🇳 China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 17...

["russia", "politics-default", "china", "us-politics", "xi-putin"]

0.25

0.5

1719063372768

0

0.5

UdVCW6VyTrL1pZ7Egjsd

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

will-xi-jinping-and-putin-still-be-71690b9ebd06

19.3538767852335

Will Xi Jinping and Putin still be elected officials when US has Woman president?

1771653540000

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714882769408

Keenen W

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if both are elected officials", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves 50% if only one is", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves No if Xi Jinping and Putin are no long...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.3230616073832485, "platformFee": 0.3230616073832485, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

KeenenW

1715744531797

0

https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb

1

0

0.25

1697247005528

0

[{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1714882769710}, {"name": "🇨🇳 China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1714882769701}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "create...

["politics-default", "china", "us-politics", "russia", "xi-putin"]

0.25

0.5

1715744528468

0

0.6539169535454982

RC4wGrHKDyraCdfrnX9r

{"NO": 1042.4887023698031, "YES": 970.1810026597539}

0.6699999999999998

will-xi-jinping-and-putin-still-be-b491b1b59007

218.9504868654285

Will Xi Jinping and Putin still be elected officials when Humans are orbiting the moon?

1735711140000

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

cpmm-1

0

9.604444556273133

False

basic

public

1714882914868

Keenen W

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if both are elected officials", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves 50% if only one is", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves No if Xi Jinping and Putin are no long...

BINARY

{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.0078402599281144, "platformFee": 3.0078402599281144, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

KeenenW

1715813292321

0

https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb

10

0

0.25

1697247005528

0

[{"name": "🌙 Moon", "slug": "moon", "groupId": "mcSfQitoDEt19DoPDBJc", "createdTime": 1714882915174}, {"name": "Xi Putin", "slug": "xi-putin", "groupId": "e3ff0761-ee9f-48a5-92c7-d28d258b61d3", "createdTime": 1714882915182}, {"name": "🇨🇳 China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 171...

["moon", "xi-putin", "china", "politics-default", "russia"]

0.25

0.5

1715813288787

1714938488133

0

88gyBxC4Aa0aTmSwofnb

what-is-you-favourite-podcast

0

What is your favourite podcast?

1715554740000

0VON2byWgyS10VCUa9X3HX4s1t32

none

0

1000000

True

public

1714883393919

Gordan Knott

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will be used to resolve this market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/GordanKnott/what-is-manifolds-favourite-podcast-e66f09e66521?r=R29yZGFuS25vdHQ", "frameBorder"...

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715554740557

GordanKnott

1714933402808

0

https://firebasestorage.…14a-c87addf6031a

15

0

0.25

1698871173640

0

[{"name": "Podcasts", "slug": "podcasts", "groupId": "8cvSruaMBLaZqnfLaLA0", "createdTime": 1714883394287}]

["podcasts"]

0.25

1714883801230

["8061a25bade1"]

0

6Y7QxJEbr754SJmWSqIA

how-many-more-votes-will-joe-biden

45.000000000000014

How Many More Votes Will Joe Biden Receive Than Donald Trump?

1733903940000

Lk7U1F6C5DXTTXCKYJhmwTok9Ps1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714883421034

vibhav

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Popular vote", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Calculated by [Joe Biden Total Votes]-[Donald Trump Total Votes]", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the correct answer is unavailable, wi...

NUMBER

0

{"creatorFee": 2.114384263653576, "platformFee": 1.4465157148478156, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

vibhav

1717238754138

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKTsn9RXrE0SP1OYtVuqcua0mnCOCxT_DTAAWHeoRGR-RU=s96-c

4

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "a350cd83f2c1", "prob": 0.005446788362564825, "text": "-10000000--9600000", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.5286012705680695, "userId": "Lk7U1F6C5DXTTXCKYJhmwTok9Ps1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 96.5196472351179, "textFts": "'-10000000':1 '-9600000':2", "contractId": "6Y7QxJEbr754SJmWSqIA", "createdTime": 17148834210...

0.25

1705419897240

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1714883421621}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1714883421622}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-elect...

["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "the-life-of-biden", "donald-trump"]

0.25

1717238750624

True

0

0.5000000000000003

o41Qj7dUTUcedWB8udgg

{"NO": 99.99999999999984, "YES": 99.99999999999999}

0

daily-coinflip-23ef1b8d1c24

2131.2984597114582

Daily coinflip

1715054340000

gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1714883525644

Traveel

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Day 145)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 18.982964362404314, "platformFee": 18.982964362404314, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715194285613

100

Traveel

1715194520009

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c

39

0

1

0.25

1674441975928

0

[{"name": "Non-Predictive Profits", "slug": "nonpredictive-profits", "groupId": "sVCyD10FvUk5af10QT6H", "createdTime": 1714883525939}, {"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1714883525956}, {"name": "Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac...

["nonpredictive-profits", "fairlyrandom", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"]

0.25

0.5

False

1715043495973

1715194518435

0.5

gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93

0

dP28ovKWN8GIkEC4PAId

will-home-team-win-may-7-2024-match

1492.7886933072284

Will home team win? (May 7, 2024 matches) ⚽🏟️

1715115408620

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

MKT

public

1714883806645

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Will home team win? (May 7, 2024 matches)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market includes the main football matches taking place on Tuesday, May 7, 2024. The matches featured in this mark...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 7.9645703313852145, "platformFee": 7.9645703313852145, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715115408620

100

FranklinBaldo

1715115412637

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

12

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "2f23ff415eaa", "prob": 0.01, "text": "19:00 - Paris Saint Germain vs Borussia Dortmund - UEFA Champions League 🇪🇺", "index": 0, "poolNo": 17.586311452817384, "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 568.6240703077046, "textFts": "'00':2 '19':1 'borussia':7 'champion':10 'dortmun...

0.25

1659579722296

0

[{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1714883807054}]

["soccer"]

0.25

1715115211042

1715115411085

0.01

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

False

0

0.5

F5I6QSkRRZtL4Blo6zxG

{"NO": 47.1051484507754, "YES": 212.2910197480844}

0.18159539047108583

will-there-be-a-ussaudi-arabia-join

148

Will there be a US-Saudi Arabia joint defense bill in 2024?

1735804740000

CpOYacLOAiMrttu0pk1yWgSXLeV2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714885736811

Zac Cucinotta

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Several sites have claimed there will be a Saudi-US-Israel deal. Part of this deal is a proposed mutual defense treaty with the United States and Saudi Arabia. This question is asking, will there be a mutual defense agreement between the United Sta...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.7743536464320828, "platformFee": 1.7743536464320828, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

ZacCucinotta

1715941846878

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTteqzyHvC_EeveHUk26jMWZP8LpZOp9mYVlIfdm6ZqKU=s96-c

6

0

0.25

1690415975788

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1714885737192}, {"name": "Saudi Arabia", "slug": "saudi-arabia", "groupId": "O9eynTpwvlmkSUgytLJr", "createdTime": 1714885737204}, {"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdT...

["us-politics", "saudi-arabia", "israel"]

0.25

0.5

1715941843528

1714885776751

0

0.5000000000000002

21k4nuuzlkj4MdgB2sew

{"NO": 10.050378152592117, "YES": 994.9874371066194}

0

trump-vp-pick-before-may-8

899.9028784623586

Trump VP Pick before May 8?

1715227140000

szxNgcjVVudC6tyOCX5ndlsoQdo2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1714886295918

Destiny

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Donald Trump publicly decides on a specific VP by name before May 8th central time, this market will resolve to yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to no.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.457720677869626, "platformFee": 2.457720677869626, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715324517540

100

Destiny3a152

1715227140000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI4QOSS8OiPQJdK_0SApethEdKIdAgzqEyo3ACaMAgQMvvz6w=s96-c

11

0

1

0.25

1714885629354

0

0.25

0.5

1715216155094

0.01

szxNgcjVVudC6tyOCX5ndlsoQdo2

0

0.49999999999999994

O9cLAHPoiyF4b3Ko0b0l

{"NO": 10.913748743370734, "YES": 916.2754462415322}

0

btc-price-below-54321-usd-before-ma

907.8373175090259

BTC price below $54,321 USD before May 7th?

1715140740000

8sb7vUqpyDa9vjnxokzEBTMIAP73

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1714886533704

Dialethia

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If BTC is worth less than $54,321 USD at any point between 05/05 and May 7th on midnight Central Time, this market will resolve to yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to no.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.4542572917100367, "platformFee": 2.4542572917100367, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715325008993

100

Dialethia

1715140740000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIVxcvHrwSFHXKbkByqCdx2oNtHSDL0u7fGJvBd1w5WGWDOGA=s96-c

13

0

1

0.25

1713946675676

0

0.25

0.5

1715135719368

0.01

8sb7vUqpyDa9vjnxokzEBTMIAP73

0

0.5

CYQP686Fj9bATG6EuqMA

{"NO": 109.67710485184068, "YES": 91.17673204000674}

0.5460543176523825

will-xi-jinping-and-putin-still-be-a6286febc16f

10

Will Xi Jinping and Putin still be elected officials when we know what causes Cannabinoid Hyperemesis Syndrome (CHS)?

1773982740000

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714886553124

Keenen W

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if both are elected officials once we know the cause of CHS", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves 50% if only one is", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves No if Xi...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.16144757407965662, "platformFee": 0.16144757407965662, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

KeenenW

1715496432172

0

https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb

1

0

0.25

1697247005528

0

[{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1714886553500}, {"name": "Cannabinoid Hyperemesis Syndrome", "slug": "cannabinoid-hyperemesis-syndrome", "groupId": "fadd4705-86ab-4a3e-a0bb-a8a341bd24cd", "createdTime": 1714886553503}, {"name": "Xi Putin", "slug": "xi...

["science-default", "cannabinoid-hyperemesis-syndrome", "xi-putin", "politics-default", "cannabis"]

0.25

0.5

1715496428945

0

0.5000000000000001

JRZK8rpy1yKkBLmVZ4wf

{"NO": 10.05037815259211, "YES": 994.9874371066186}

0

new-realdonaldtrump-tweet-before-ma

899.8128778060603

New @realdonaldtrump tweet before May 13?

1715659140000

sbVVRIu6v0RoKycX9c1YqH7uHYx1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1714886686563

Manifest

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is a new Tweet on the @realdonaldtrump X account before May 13, 2024 midnight Central Time, this market will resolve to yes. Otherwise, it will resolve to no. For the purposes of this market, likes, replies and retweets will not be suffici...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.4127203497209453, "platformFee": 2.4127203497209453, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715756042392

100

Manifest

1715659140000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKs4ivwXlfw5hVhXnylTr9DptiaPpPpJp0OCMy66sWTKu3NJA=s96-c

9

0

1

0.25

1714011036131

0

0.25

0.5

1715648153567

1715749783229

0.01

sbVVRIu6v0RoKycX9c1YqH7uHYx1

0

0.5

7O03hKa9cQzLkS60ilb0

{"NO": 155.49973346918898, "YES": 64.30879189887119}

0.7074326767299457

will-cat-outperform-dog-in-2024

57

Will CAT outperform DOG in 2024?

1735707540000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714886858835

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CAT ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/CAT:NYSE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/CAT:NYSE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoratio...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.8014249059855222, "platformFee": 0.6988416248254996, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

strutheo

1717274451028

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

4

0

0.25

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1714886859189}, {"name": "💼 Business", "slug": "business", "groupId": "pmK8sntWL1SDkMm53UBR", "createdTime": 1714886859199}, {"name": "Investing", "slug": "investing", "groupId": "uVOFCm1wHEnCBkk8fwY2", "createdTi...

["economics-default", "business", "investing", "stocks", "dogs-cats"]

0.25

0.5

1717274447893

1717219922687

0

0.49999999999999994

YYaAecCHy67edFG0GjjS

{"NO": 65.96128873025832, "YES": 151.60407251735103}

0.30317918418634804

will-jack-outperform-jill-in-2024

58

Will JACK outperform JILL in 2024?

1735707540000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714886892104

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "JACK ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/JACK:NASDAQ?window=6M", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/JACK:NASDAQ?window=6M", "class": "break-anywhere hove...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.7915526953772007, "platformFee": 0.7915526953772007, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

strutheo

1715123154368

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

3

0

0.25

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1714886892412}, {"name": "💼 Business", "slug": "business", "groupId": "pmK8sntWL1SDkMm53UBR", "createdTime": 1714886892411}, {"name": "Investing", "slug": "investing", "groupId": "uVOFCm1wHEnCBkk8fwY2", "createdTi...

["economics-default", "business", "investing", "stocks", "nasdaq"]

0.25

0.5

1715123151125

0

0.5

rDvIVubNi1m1TDXzYSxz

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

will-high-outperform-low-in-2024

0

Will HIGH outperform LOW in 2024?

1714887114604

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

CANCEL

public

1714886925807

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "HIGH ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HIGH?.tsrc=fin-srch", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HIGH?.tsrc=fin-srch", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline ho...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714887114604

100

strutheo

1714887114604

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

0

0.25

1700846926650

True

0

[{"name": "Investing", "slug": "investing", "groupId": "uVOFCm1wHEnCBkk8fwY2", "createdTime": 1714886926155}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1714886926163}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": ...

["investing", "stocks", "economics-default", "business", "nyse"]

0.25

0.5

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

0

0.14

gzmFogdRfFkmqAYV364f

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.14

will-dont-dismiss-simple-alignment

0

Will "Don't Dismiss Simple Alignment Approaches" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

1738368000000

h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714888195262

Less Wrong

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

LessWrong

1714888195578

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c

0

0.25

1706554674237

0

[{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1714888195578}]

["lesswrong-annual-review"]

0.25

0.14

0

C5kUBJYhXGExOESAbY15

who-will-win-the-round-2-series-of

4501.120626061133

Who will win the round 2 series of the 2024 NHL playoffs?

1716263683842

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

MKT

public

1714889149863

Haws

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes based on who wins their round 1 matchups for 2024 NHL Playoffs.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll clean this description at a later time.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 23.311247765166534, "platformFee": 23.311247765166534, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716263683842

1000

Haws

1716263754406

0

https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436

26

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "70dfe90f7edd", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Boston Bruins", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.512594538148022, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 248.7468592766544, "textFts": "'boston':1 'bruin':2", "contractId": "C5kUBJYhXGExOESAbY15", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO...

1

0.25

1677434458766

0

[{"name": "Ice Hockey", "slug": "ice-hockey", "groupId": "68ee6874-3058-4c8f-ae72-5b8a764c8741", "createdTime": 1714889150263}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1714889150268}, {"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b3ll9Ch9rdbc...

["ice-hockey", "sports-default", "sports-betting", "hockey"]

0.25

1716263056613

1716263752845

0.01

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

False

0

UZ7gqJ6V9jY39GSP1w58

whos-going-to-win-the-rap-beef

2254.12210046742

Who's going to win the rap beef

1717541940000

bd6ckSpn3mcMu1b1i2KDmQyw21m2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1714889262776

Light

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 8.076123331292656, "platformFee": 1.407609139319777, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

SegunTimilehin

1717540905467

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKrwEPUsJiiGTYNHXevTFEFqlEiwqzSYeO2TCS7l65uEp84VA=s96-c

20

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "c43111b9b8fa", "prob": 0.02621532836480818, "text": "Drake", "index": 0, "poolNo": 34.12784506556565, "userId": "bd6ckSpn3mcMu1b1i2KDmQyw21m2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1267.7000241355443, "textFts": "'drake':1", "contractId": "UZ7gqJ6V9jY39GSP1w58", "createdTime": 1714889262776, "probChanges": {"day": -0....

2

0.25

1712530602244

0

[{"name": "🎷 Music", "slug": "music-f213cbf1eab5", "groupId": "Xuc2UY8gGfjQqFXwxq5d", "createdTime": 1714889263193}, {"name": "Hip-Hop/Rap", "slug": "hiphoprap", "groupId": "qojZj1hvMmMET5Eo3QgW", "createdTime": 1714889263186}, {"name": "Drake/Kendrick Beef", "slug": "drakekendrick-beef", "groupId": "aa2cfa70-7aa3-446...

["music-f213cbf1eab5", "hiphoprap", "drakekendrick-beef", "rap-music"]

0.25

1717540902323

1714976047529

True

0

0.5

SX6udU8ziROa4hxzpxBs

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

1

private-prop-bet

20350

Private prop bet

1714890288815

4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1714890146632

jackson polack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What the bet was about is private but if you're a mod and find this sus ask david, I can explain it to him", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 175.00000000000003, "platformFee": 175.00000000000003, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714890288815

100

jacksonpolack

1716324325540

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c

2

0

0.25

1670234252125

0

[]

0.25

0.5

True

1714890280731

0.5

4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2

0

kMWB0xSceVXqt9KPvToH

what-floor-will-be-wirtuals-pb-when

737.0148887679522

What floor will be Wirtual's PB when Deep Dip 2 is finished?

1717839063992

cWrPMCVn8WPabacghrYOU8mGGGF3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

728981eeabbe

public

1714892947025

Oskar

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Deep Dip 2 is a very hard Trackmania 2020 map in Bennett Foddy style where players try to reach the top of the track without falling down. There are no checkpoints in the map so players needs to climb it in one go.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "pa...

NUMBER

0

{"creatorFee": 7.786798038144992, "platformFee": 5.2492200202922845, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717839254163

100

nollfem

1717839063992

0

https://firebasestorage.…ed3-456eeb0513f5

9

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "d51ade317448", "prob": 0.0004471105872371554, "text": "4-5", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.29329382239793134, "userId": "cWrPMCVn8WPabacghrYOU8mGGGF3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 655.6827236776375, "textFts": "'-5':2 '4':1", "contractId": "kMWB0xSceVXqt9KPvToH", "resolverId": "cWrPMCVn8WPabacghrYOU8mGGGF3", "creat...

0.25

1675414964663

0

[{"name": "Trackmania", "slug": "trackmania", "groupId": "OLB194lFbKJFt2EBwqjo", "createdTime": 1714892947509}, {"name": "Twitch Streamers", "slug": "twitch-streamers", "groupId": "63c4fdb6-43af-4c83-af65-dc9c0d9f3949", "createdTime": 1714892947512}, {"name": "Streaming", "slug": "streaming-b160dddff0ab", "groupId": "a...

["trackmania", "twitch-streamers", "streaming-b160dddff0ab", "deep-dip-2"]

0.25

1717757254129

{"728981eeabbe": 100}

cWrPMCVn8WPabacghrYOU8mGGGF3

True

0

ht6m4M4ffkOAHBVuXbj7

which-existing-amendment-to-the-con

608.1748979747574

Which existing amendment to the Constitution of the United States will be repealed by EOY 2044 ?

2368133940000

WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714893250509

Mich

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_Constitution_of_the_United_States", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_Constitution_of_the_United_States", "c...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 6.892874648218758, "platformFee": 6.892874648218758, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Mich

1715819314660

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c

11

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "fddce75aad12", "prob": 0.1008205986261464, "text": "1st (Protects freedom of religion, freedom of speech, freedom of the press, freedom of assembly and the right to petition the government.)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.880648939638576, "userId": "WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 88.121...

0.25

1702591853953

0

[{"name": "U.S. Congress", "slug": "us-congress", "groupId": "e722513e-30fa-4116-80c1-594b8dfd0685", "createdTime": 1714893251098}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1714893251100}, {"name": "United States", "slug": "united-states", "groupId": "5ba769e...

["us-congress", "us-politics", "united-states", "law-order"]

0.25

1715819311334

1714931014321

False

0

0.5000000000000008

syUHbXkje3HzfVqTXuwJ

{"NO": 10.243869226804236, "YES": 976.1936411521013}

0

will-djt-stock-trump-media-technolo

1939.373076974906

Will DJT stock (Trump Media & Technology Group) lose 10% in value in a single trading day this week?

1715372615922

4whKWb3H9zU6BW4b2jrtc9VKxOT2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1714903823061

Omar B

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DJT/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 16.914072137227734, "platformFee": 16.914072137227734, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715372615922

100

OmarB

1715372615922

0

https://firebasestorage.…588-3bbdfc84df8f

34

0

0.25

1697294914972

0

[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1714903823696}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1714903823759}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"...

["technology-default", "donald-trump", "us-politics", "stocks"]

0.25

0.5

1715372591168

1715372566543

0.01

4whKWb3H9zU6BW4b2jrtc9VKxOT2

0

0.14

QyJXO55RWBrLBdc4vrSd

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.14

will-what-i-mean-by-alignment-is-in

0

Will "What I mean by "alignment is in large part ab..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

1738368000000

h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714904169365

Less Wrong

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

LessWrong

1714904169772

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c

0

0.25

1706554674237

0

[{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1714904169772}]

["lesswrong-annual-review"]

0.25

0.14

0

0.49999999999999706

ldW6ZT0ow0VnI313kWEr

{"NO": 994.9874371066221, "YES": 10.050378152592032}

1

will-the-sp-500-close-the-week-of-m

1311.2589093011775

Will the S&P 500 close the week of May 6th to May 10th higher than its close the previous week?

1715402088305

PKFboemYWtVwfxypZUazxAXr4rG3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1714905208794

RiskOptimization

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.986806048788198, "platformFee": 2.986806048788198, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715402088305

100

RiskOptimization

1715402088305

0

https://firebasestorage.…10a-45d742b0b831

7

0

0.25

1705974765884

0

[{"name": "Stock Market-Weekly", "slug": "stock-marketweekly", "groupId": "d80c92f5-19c3-482d-82bc-f3bcf72e8494", "createdTime": 1714905209089}, {"name": "▲SC-CS-Q4-23▲", "slug": "sccsq4", "groupId": "bacb900a-0324-4b57-9ff0-1767ed9be5e5", "createdTime": 1714905209087}, {"name": "FTSE 100", "slug": "ftse-100", "groupId...

["stock-marketweekly", "sccsq4", "ftse-100"]

0.25

0.5

1715402080506

0.99

PKFboemYWtVwfxypZUazxAXr4rG3

0

ueAV5cl13DWow3IGYwTW

after-stage-1-of-the-2024-giro-dita-994185d0afb8

11

After Stage 1 of the 2024 Giro d'Italia Women who will wear the Maglia Rosa?

1720353600000

JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714907227175

Stuart Slagle

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will be resolved with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.giroditaliawomen.it/en/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.giroditaliawomen.it/en/", "class": "break-anywhere...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.24413256341400763, "platformFee": 0.24413256341400763, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

200

ovals

1714908706346

0

https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "abe0a94eab8e", "prob": 0.10558037533167354, "text": "Liane Lippert", "index": 0, "poolNo": 12.985896016414488, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 110.00946155472676, "textFts": "'lian':1 'lippert':2", "contractId": "ueAV5cl13DWow3IGYwTW", "createdTime": 1714907227175, "probC...

0.25

1697477345360

0

[{"name": "Womens Cycling", "slug": "peloton-discord-65dd39510b70", "groupId": "gFM3R8fELUfxPcGgiRP1", "createdTime": 1714907227696}, {"name": "🚲 Cycling", "slug": "road-bicycle-racing", "groupId": "2yisxJryUq9V5sG7P6Gy", "createdTime": 1714907227699}, {"name": "Maglia Rosa", "slug": "maglia-rosa", "groupId": "841234...

["peloton-discord-65dd39510b70", "road-bicycle-racing", "maglia-rosa", "sports-default", "giro-ditalia"]

0.25

1714908703014

True

0

0.49999999999999994

xQtNrq5MOO6uJArKJZRi

{"NO": 35.19349431090717, "YES": 284.14342468121436}

0

will-this-question-have-a-probabili

214

Will this question have a probability of 50% or more by the time it closes.

1719784740000

QMF5wTqvWefYwLScsyDnxl4ORdq1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1714910242249

Gaston Kessler

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes, anyone could move the probability by a lot right before the time of close so be careful.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.110208034893001, "month": -0.110208034893001}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.14127676858247, "platformFee": 0.2221661338554958, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719812552224

100

GastonKessler

1719784740000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJLS-aCC3U5ebLUDvs8zzjKoHIGvM8SGDPz6U2ea5X1=s96-c

2

0

0.25

1702761965647

0

0.25

0.5

1716869151212

0.11

QMF5wTqvWefYwLScsyDnxl4ORdq1

0

0.8713089678076069

cfKgU2QZp2b6jYiCzttr

{"NO": 147.60169192657858, "YES": 1271.8930258955484}

0.4400000000000004

will-the-2024-election-be-a-2020-re

1957.184302904461

Will the 2024 election be a 2020 rematch?

1730908740000

GxByO08XQHdK19Od5auuvu3K1g72

cpmm-1

0

9.903030364516491

False

basic

public

1714911461893

Ansel

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES iff:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump are on the ballot as presidential candidates for their respective major parties in 2024’s general election ", "type": "text"}]}, {...

BINARY

{"day": 0.030000000000000415, "week": -0.2967953601476998, "month": -0.4564488451273022}

0

{"creatorFee": 51.42579429796313, "platformFee": 2.8743563373664047, "liquidityFee": 0}

88.71104793299804

1000

Ansel

1720216822854

0

https://firebasestorage.…469-935b0d72b0a1

19

2

0.25

1661077246623

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1714911462211}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1714911462207}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-defa...

["2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics", "politics-default"]

0.25

0.5

1720216819799

0

0.5000000000000001

IphzkNc50wKcyCWgzbfU

{"NO": 43.64357804719851, "YES": 229.1287847477922}

0

will-both-upcoming-paradox-dlcs-win

515.6481764054989

Will both upcoming Paradox DLCs, Winds of Change (eu4) and The Machine Age (stellaris), get bad reviews on Steam?

1718906507383

GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1714911567507

RemNi

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if on June 20th 2024, both DLCs \"Winds of Change\" (eu4) and \"The Machine Age\" (stellaris) have mixed reviews or worse on Steam.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Machine ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.2543307061694619}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.77438344234504, "platformFee": 1.831183741541414, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1718906507383

100

RemNi

1718906507383

0

https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1

13

0

0.25

1690812555459

0

[{"name": "Paradox Interactive", "slug": "paradox-interactive", "groupId": "DaLEsm5lBFjkVpIWHa10", "createdTime": 1714911568045}, {"name": "Video Games", "slug": "video-games", "groupId": "9FaZmHrfS8IcDJyu6pUD", "createdTime": 1714911568082}, {"name": "Stellaris", "slug": "stellaris", "groupId": "c44cc5bf-0d42-486d-a4b...

["paradox-interactive", "video-games", "stellaris", "dlc", "europa-universalis"]

0.25

0.5

1718902545769

1718842294602

0.16

GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1

0

0.19614996041320373

UtKbryVaf5jxgXIZBICg

{"NO": 899.8003053094021, "YES": 1279.5825480891358}

0.1464588094927297

something-happens-yes-vs-nothing-ev

635

Something Happens (YES) VS Nothing Ever Happens (NO) 2024-2025

1767221940000

lCq4BTG0BZYYz9SL5tGVOOz3Bx52

cpmm-1

0

9.76073895093937

False

basic

public

1714911664136

Peter 1169

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is open to everyone, but it primarily targets those who frequently bet on NO or (like myself) on YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can bet as you want; this is optional, but...

BINARY

{"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.757073086973544, "platformFee": 6.757073086973544, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Peter1169

1716234964783

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL6Qvm2Aa9pfA8_rzlDW13AQD1I4falviuj6hu28IrUbLU=s96-c

16

0

0.25

1707660435691

0

[{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1714911664933}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1714911664936}, {"name": "👽 Aliens", "slug": "aliens", "groupId": "FvhchmbPB3fymwvEFx0G", "createdTime": 17149116...

["ai", "technology-default", "aliens", "lk99", "nothing-ever-happens"]

0.25

0.5

1716234961517

0

0.5

aSAA71XlY5ukOOILGbdR

{"NO": 214.88740017729316, "YES": 46.53599974567835}

0.8219899222510678

at-eoy-2024-will-i-still-think-that

117.40150605133148

At EOY 2024, will I still think that the internet connexion on high-speed trains in France is completely useless ?

1735685940000

WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714912614483

Mich

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if on Dec 31st 2024 if I still think that the wifi network in French high-speed trains works so bad that it would have been better just not to do anything and save some money, time and trouble.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type":...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.006904422497246099}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.288406160464402, "platformFee": 1.2256997135739167, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

Mich

1718279471245

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c

5

0

0.25

1702591853953

0

[{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1714912615262}, {"name": "🌐 Internet", "slug": "internet", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1714912615260}, {"name": "France", "slug": "france", "groupId": "HIanSY8KAqWjuDz9ruPs", "createdTime": 171491...

["science-default", "internet", "france", "technology-default"]

0.25

0.5

1718279468032

1715029372470

0

0.5

tqfWqaElRCdgQIDfhqmy

{"NO": 12.601730298813324, "YES": 793.5418202801611}

0.0156321169967343

will-girona-win-the-202425-la-liga

1228.650323185692

Will Girona win the 2024/25 La Liga?

1747108740000

n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714913136601

Universal FC ⚽

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.005599784744976726}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.991540198200771, "platformFee": 2.816316335946127, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

UniversalFC

1718573156461

0

https://firebasestorage.…336-9360eb780ce1

4

0

0.25

1682429098149

0

[{"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1714913136910}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1714913136920}, {"name": "La Liga", "slug": "la-liga", "groupId": "7tVich7PzeBIyTTzP9o9", "createdTime": 1714913136914...

["football", "soccer", "la-liga", "sports-default", "spain"]

0.25

0.5

1718573153330

0

0.4999999999999999

AK1sqGkoSNcPaX3PNmMI

{"NO": 20.255472103851574, "YES": 493.69375093945627}

0.03941142664621704

will-real-sociedad-win-the-202425-l

398

Will Real Sociedad win the 2024/25 La Liga?

1747108740000

n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714913160516

Universal FC ⚽

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.4271985935326916, "platformFee": 1.8790504670110522, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

UniversalFC

1716788919991

0

https://firebasestorage.…336-9360eb780ce1

3

0

0.25

1682429098149

0

[{"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1714913160811}, {"name": "🇪🇸 Spain", "slug": "spain", "groupId": "OGSXjmjjySBpjZC2r5QQ", "createdTime": 1714913160813}, {"name": "La Liga", "slug": "la-liga", "groupId": "7tVich7PzeBIyTTzP9o9", "createdTime": 1714913160...

["football", "spain", "la-liga", "sports-default", "soccer"]

0.25

0.5

1716788916234

0

0.49999999999999994

MjU42RU2HcJgDNsA0v81

{"NO": 33.36765275407805, "YES": 299.69144289832764}

0.10018538208276981

will-atletico-de-madrid-win-the-202-fb5664d34fcd

203

Will Atlético de Madrid win the 2024/25 La Liga?

1747108740000

n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714913180441

Universal FC ⚽

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -1.3877787807814457e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.0483287068101177, "platformFee": 1.2602283948622615, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

UniversalFC

1716788813296

0

https://firebasestorage.…336-9360eb780ce1

4

0

0.25

1682429098149

0

[{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1714913180736}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1714913180743}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 171...

["soccer", "football", "sports-default", "la-liga", "spain"]

0.25

0.5

1716788809759

0

0.5000000000000001

o3p9Qj75VivEyJ6FE4jJ

{"NO": 129.14809758671086, "YES": 77.4304862933498}

0.6251766042780802

will-real-madrid-win-the-202425-la

207.34680726203

Will Real Madrid win the 2024/25 La Liga?

1747367940000

n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714913203081

Universal FC ⚽

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.047363401573406794}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.684453021363147, "platformFee": 0.7281739120589569, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

UniversalFC

1718153730361

0

https://firebasestorage.…336-9360eb780ce1

4

0

0.25

1682429098149

0

[{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1714913203390}, {"name": "🇪🇸 Spain", "slug": "spain", "groupId": "OGSXjmjjySBpjZC2r5QQ", "createdTime": 1714913203391}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1714913203...

["soccer", "spain", "football", "la-liga", "sports-default"]

0.25

0.5

1718153727181

0

0.5000000000000001

8TCcoAFVVIPkHrsWJCJV

{"NO": 56.8571734002592, "YES": 175.87930250423625}

0.24429850619372115

will-barcelona-win-the-202425-la-li

99.66544612274777

Will Barcelona win the 2024/25 La Liga?

1747108740000

n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714913263924

Universal FC ⚽

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.7035880039594715, "platformFee": 0.7516633690565148, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

UniversalFC

1716787932081

0

https://firebasestorage.…336-9360eb780ce1

3

0

0.25

1682429098149

0

[{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1714913264269}, {"name": "La Liga", "slug": "la-liga", "groupId": "7tVich7PzeBIyTTzP9o9", "createdTime": 1714913264270}, {"name": "🇪🇸 Spain", "slug": "spain", "groupId": "OGSXjmjjySBpjZC2r5QQ", "createdTime": 1714913264273}, {...

["soccer", "la-liga", "spain", "football", "sports-default"]

0.25

0.5

1716787928502

0

0.5000000000000001

JzMjnxgIAL5wvtLUrsWg

{"NO": 26.768142835596215, "YES": 373.5784010649408}

0.06686243017061379

will-chelsea-win-the-202425-premier

1039.2762110780877

Will Chelsea win the 2024/25 Premier League?

1747108740000

n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714913471670

Universal FC ⚽

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 13.436326346011413, "platformFee": 2.676219376771608, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

UniversalFC

1717595027900

0

https://firebasestorage.…336-9360eb780ce1

10

0

0.25

1682429098149

0

[{"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1714913472226}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1714913472228}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 171...

["football", "sports-default", "soccer", "premiere-league"]

0.25

0.5

1717595024774

0

ZIElav0D6BVR02GIRpex

what-portion-of-votes-in-the-2024-p

277.52577095231254

What portion of votes in the 2024 presidential election will not go to the Republican or Democratic party nominees?

1731304740000

nU2iSQixiuQmJLbyKt2bhBlBRpL2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1714915319200

Mark HC

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Several markets exist for the popular vote share for specific 3rd-party candidates, or for the single 3rd-party candidate with the most votes.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market captu...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.646174117225638, "platformFee": 3.16371661696359, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

MarkHC

1719102260113

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ8AXUB1zy1uNoSOhEoAKkG5PF5klOEajPiAjysa3xb=s96-c

12

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "b066360cb4a4", "prob": 0.4322237887018248, "text": "< 5%", "index": 0, "poolNo": 268.261049118125, "userId": "nU2iSQixiuQmJLbyKt2bhBlBRpL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 352.3920850461039, "textFts": "'5':1", "contractId": "ZIElav0D6BVR02GIRpex", "createdTime": 1714915319200, "probChanges": {"day": 0.060787983...

0.25

1709904245565

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1714915319617}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1714915319619}]

["us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election"]

0.25

1719102257020

True

0

opcNRlz9IXdL6SOlbj5y

will-manifold-think-that-its-at-lea

2429.3369110709386

Will Manifold think that it's at least p likely that Boeing is killing whistleblowers ?

1720389540000

WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714915558708

Mich

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are now two Boeing whistleblowers who have died: Joshua Dean and John Barnett. Here's an article on Dean:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.npr.org/2024/05/02/1248693512/boeing-whistleblowe...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 18.445028743145386, "platformFee": 11.526918251863917, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Mich

1719231289941

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c

21

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "ed49f7404e41", "prob": 0.9833417240727863, "text": "p = 1%", "index": 0, "poolNo": 244.00089623901263, "userId": "WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.1334910911764196, "textFts": "'1':2 'p':1", "contractId": "opcNRlz9IXdL6SOlbj5y", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjK...

2

0.25

1702591853953

0

[{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1714915559183}, {"name": "Crime", "slug": "crime", "groupId": "j7TkLdIOLyiTtiQQKjl9", "createdTime": 1714915559185}, {"name": "Boeing", "slug": "boeing", "groupId": "0ad5d059-21c2-4821-a1a8-6f54dd5b3462", "create...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "crime", "boeing", "scandal-markets", "aviation"]

0.25

1719231286803

1717279170824

False

0

0.4999999999999998

AdKj0fxXNkElhvYJJkeN

{"NO": 59.487363448588866, "YES": 168.10292842516657}

0.26137917816629247

jj-watt-plays-for-the-nfl-again-by

319.0995102817082

J.J. Watt plays for the NFL again by end of next season?

1770613140000

H9WsRqp0riS8Q4oUOvwYptkQwcP2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714915734875

Earl Kelly

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.98029834653725, "platformFee": 2.98029834653725, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

EarlKelly

1715191435259

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYce6r9qcA6KpyiKEz3Co6Vx_SzjlJr3gV8HLI3=s96-c

8

0

0.25

1682435319443

0

[{"name": "🏈 NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1714915735287}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1714915735288}]

["nfl", "football"]

0.25

0.5

1715191432010

0

0.06399358530809973

YZbMS2rxlVKAzGA8X7Ch

{"NO": 836.1249448437402, "YES": 5659.316626976693}

0

manifold-lottery-20x-return-08e4f0842b18

208300.6662081423

Manifold Lottery (20x return)

1717684877092

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

NO

public

1714917226094

Ammon Lam

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have placed No limit orders at 5%. If you are interested in this lottery, you can purchase as many Yes shares at 5% as you wish, provided my No limit orders do not run out.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "conten...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.06342051582523923}

0

{"creatorFee": 282.5518509833091, "platformFee": 24.373478938222593, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717684877092

1000

AmmonLam

1717723765075

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c

49

0

0.25

1668192587343

0

[{"name": "Lotteries", "slug": "lotteries", "groupId": "MdqNUtni6p3Jc1R0WvBL", "createdTime": 1714917226390}, {"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1714917226400}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb...

["lotteries", "fairlyrandom", "nonpredictive"]

0.25

0.5

False

1717684867098

1717684901255

0.01

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

0

2kCP6YkwhziQE0y6zuwX

which-team-will-win-the-champions-l

1404.62087631421

Which team will win the Champions League 2024/25

1748699940000

Jxzs6NHitohaNLJ1AJkmt06uRw33

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1714917790175

TP King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 13.204323793366912, "platformFee": 11.659726157285485, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

tpking

1719329950128

0

https://firebasestorage.…bd9-ecf41128b706

19

1

ANYONE

[{"id": "24c9aeb6de4a", "prob": 0.24393125271185512, "text": "Real Madrid", "index": 0, "poolNo": 43.362162201763105, "userId": "Jxzs6NHitohaNLJ1AJkmt06uRw33", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 134.40170249246225, "textFts": "'madrid':2 'real':1", "contractId": "2kCP6YkwhziQE0y6zuwX", "createdTime": 1714917790175, "probChan...

0.25

1697442193885

0

[{"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1714917790575}, {"name": "UEFA Champions League", "slug": "uefa-champions-league", "groupId": "jgZHnM9QIVaWt6OmPhm3", "createdTime": 1714917790588}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", ...

["football", "uefa-champions-league", "soccer", "sports-default"]

0.25

1719329946994

False

0

0.4999999999999999

PmXBSOAkO1ZGfbMGJSEv

{"NO": 42.32966931723519, "YES": 236.2409194613847}

0.15195311717158544

will-bayern-munich-win-the-202425-c

157.93197068296118

Will Bayern Munich win the 2024/25 Champions League

1748699940000

Jxzs6NHitohaNLJ1AJkmt06uRw33

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714918280198

TP King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.9135549278270578, "platformFee": 1.9135549278270578, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

tpking

1715730032197

0

https://firebasestorage.…bd9-ecf41128b706

3

0

0.25

1697442193885

0

[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1714918280499}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1714918280501}, {"name": "UEFA Champions League", "slug": "uefa-champions-league", "groupId": "jgZHnM9QIVaWt6OmPhm3...

["sports-default", "soccer", "uefa-champions-league", "football"]

0.25

0.5

1715730028934

0

0.5000000000000001

oP5iDVbpwA12AVEJZEHW

{"NO": 25.2248030417268, "YES": 396.43520639023427}

0

will-both-upcoming-paradox-dlcs-win-e083d3ba3214

638.2134719212297

Will both upcoming Paradox DLCs, Winds of Change (eu4) and The Machine Age (stellaris), get good reviews on Steam?

1718906536420

GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1714919698065

RemNi

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if on June 20th 2024, both DLCs \"Winds of Change\" (eu4) and \"The Machine Age\" (stellaris) have mostly positive reviews or better on Steam.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "T...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.3704104753508024}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.524612062652452, "platformFee": 5.233915795105218, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1718906536420

100

RemNi

1718906536420

0

https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1

10

0

0.25

1690812555459

0

[{"name": "Europa Universalis", "slug": "europa-universalis", "groupId": "3a240016-5200-4b4b-a570-14aef14c3f8a", "createdTime": 1714919698358}, {"name": "Paradox Interactive", "slug": "paradox-interactive", "groupId": "DaLEsm5lBFjkVpIWHa10", "createdTime": 1714919698354}, {"name": "Video Games", "slug": "video-games", ...

["europa-universalis", "paradox-interactive", "video-games", "stellaris", "dlc"]

0.25

0.5

1718880133275

1718842227563

0.06

GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1

0

0.707914339552582

n4ieuCBqdUvXYofGJDh2

{"NO": 705.2418830484937, "YES": 1138.6865573192852}

0.6001730222429174

will-there-be-an-earthquake-of-at-l

867.8988960821223

Will there be an earthquake of at least 5.5 Magnitude on Cinco de Mayo 2025? (May 5)

1746503940000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

9.535095015242806

False

basic

public

1714920530653

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Info: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://earthquaketrack.com/recent", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://earthquaketrack.com/recent", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:...

BINARY

{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -0.03475296059595889}

0

{"creatorFee": 19.410390299559953, "platformFee": 5.8578782220080345, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

strutheo

1718067838645

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

17

0

0.25

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "Earthquake", "slug": "earthquake", "groupId": "cf835665-726a-458f-8b28-702ab90d4249", "createdTime": 1714920530926}, {"name": "Nature", "slug": "nature", "groupId": "FT4bkhrmTZ3JZq00FeNK", "createdTime": 1714920530939}, {"name": "Disasters", "slug": "disasters", "groupId": "89c8408c-8720-4580-85ad-73c6da3ae9...

["earthquake", "nature", "disasters", "natural-disasters", "cinco-de-mayo"]

0.25

0.5

1718067835507

1714925174370

0

sVa3zhufl3B4cUuE95Pm

which-city-will-be-the-next-to-get-b8f74258d66d

189

Which city will be the next to get an NBA basketball team?

1861937940000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714921097483

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves 50% if two are chosen at same time", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "Zey9Jhf4G49VKQeHsOfJ", "label": "/strutheo/which-city-wil...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 2.7032750836907575, "platformFee": 1.4524572378320963, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

150

strutheo

1716470515990

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

8

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "41d5affcaaf1", "prob": 0.013957088533651215, "text": "Montreal", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.8845225860635706, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 274.43445323026083, "textFts": "'montreal':1", "contractId": "sVa3zhufl3B4cUuE95Pm", "createdTime": 1714921097483, "probChanges": {"d...

0.25

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime": 1714921097845}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1714921097854}, {"name": "Athletics", "slug": "athletics", "groupId": "NGvSDFGfvMUpsDoIl6hD", "createdTime": 1714921097851...

["nba", "culture-default", "athletics", "basketball", "sports-default"]

0.25

1716470512332

True

prob-desc

0

0.4999999999999997

UvdUzpI4PRfhTxK9u6qm

{"NO": 116.19499246902106, "YES": 86.06222856519506}

0.5744911943063044

will-the-grand-theft-auto-6-release

43

Will the Grand Theft Auto 6 release be delayed until April 1st 2026 or later?

1775102340000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714921277994

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The first trailer just came out today stating a 2025 release date.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "trPPBrnXtYv9rDshpuVk", "label": "/strutheo/will-the-grand...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.6942372283427988, "platformFee": 0.6942372283427988, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

strutheo

1715730244420

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

5

0

0.25

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1714921278602}, {"name": "Video Games", "slug": "video-games", "groupId": "9FaZmHrfS8IcDJyu6pUD", "createdTime": 1714921278611}, {"name": "GTA 6", "slug": "gta-6", "groupId": "6ab20df4-8fbd-4b73-baf6-c291f9c72566", "createdTime":...

["gaming", "video-games", "gta-6", "release-dates", "grand-theft-auto"]

0.25

0.5

1715730241101

0

0.2249494481467436

trPPBrnXtYv9rDshpuVk

{"NO": 931.1518225485015, "YES": 1178.6329902402626}

0.18652638664842242

will-the-grand-theft-auto-6-release-315254399538

359.8260132091385

Will the Grand Theft Auto 6 release be delayed until August 1st 2026 or later?

1785643140000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

9.665174600948149

False

basic

public

1714921308122

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The first trailer just came out today stating a 2025 release date.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "UvdUzpI4PRfhTxK9u6qm", "label": "/strutheo/will-the-grand...

BINARY

{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.578442023193563, "platformFee": 3.510064726996519, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

strutheo

1716944932879

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

17

0

0.25

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "GTA 6", "slug": "gta-6", "groupId": "6ab20df4-8fbd-4b73-baf6-c291f9c72566", "createdTime": 1714921308451}, {"name": "Video Games", "slug": "video-games", "groupId": "9FaZmHrfS8IcDJyu6pUD", "createdTime": 1714921308456}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime":...

["gta-6", "video-games", "gaming", "release-dates", "grand-theft-auto"]

0.25

0.5

1716944929316

1716493089719

0

JyTMa0q4lgwAPsQDpUsh

at-the-end-of-the-current-hostiliti

2167.432011962622

Will Manifold think Kendrick or Drake won?

1719110279965

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

500f7a9f0659

public

1714922852041

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolved by poll after market close ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will close at a random time when I feel they've stopped responding to each other.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.125517843808799, "platformFee": 4.071866909475721, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719143655705

1000

strutheo

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

39

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "6f0596c5a791", "prob": 0.011034587656223694, "text": "Drake", "color": "#2196f3", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.488054327442672, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 939.9828335926177, "textFts": "'drake':1", "contractId": "JyTMa0q4lgwAPsQDpUsh", "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU...

0.25

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "Drake/Kendrick Beef", "slug": "drakekendrick-beef", "groupId": "aa2cfa70-7aa3-4465-9251-e9b31d690540", "createdTime": 1714922852445}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1714922852447}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "man...

["drakekendrick-beef", "entertainment", "manifold-users", "music-f213cbf1eab5", "culture-default"]

0.25

1718917686055

1719110288290

{"500f7a9f0659": 100}

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

True

0

0.5246151032130792

WaU91YBsIXkB0kHBFzJS

{"NO": 409.67370406606494, "YES": 391.00364772597396}

0.5362324242410451

i-hate-manifolds-stocks-stock

10

"I hate Manifold's stocks" stock

HrA6GjQdKRa7rFaDe0NlcftnDt02

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714923088243

Timothy Bandors

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = Buy", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "No = Short", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This is a permanent market and its duration will be lengthened as long as it's allowed. The aim is to sell your stock (see ...

STONK

{"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.16314796696752198, "platformFee": 0.16314796696752198, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

400

TimothyBandors

1716338377500

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcw5cD4NDESa0IBg9dcxZMuZHrXSqKGycGYx3y_noFFKqs=s96-c

1

0

0.25

1690819422060

0

[{"name": "Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1714923089825}, {"name": "Unsubsidized", "slug": "unsubsidized", "groupId": "f08f4130-3410-4030-9bf5-f675e5035e9c", "createdTime": 1714923090244}, {"name": "all stonks", "slug": "all-stonks", "groupId": "82a...

["nonpredictive", "unsubsidized", "all-stonks"]

0.25

0.5

False

1714923331017

0

0.5

7zAKel55ZMiuMVzMh4F7

{"NO": 168.70547845739463, "YES": 59.274897836381946}

0.7399999999999999

will-lisa-and-sascha-end-up-living

130.24083365403118

Will Lisa and Sascha end up living in Sweden within the next 10 years?

1717538340000

aE4y9xG5XVboSUsyYe3dWXLJ2aw1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714923741479

Robert Heukamp

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "living = enrolling at least one of the girls in a kindergarten or school in Sweden.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.0439305090957443, "platformFee": 0.16153080369162434, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

RobertHeukamp

1717537543617

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIlg7HD-GxKDUfefIHaPr7cNBTcKH6NKBSK99QvBNAlZQfJ=s96-c

7

0

2

0.25

1697380751581

0

0.25

0.5

1717537540448

0

0.49999999999999817

ZS2lKKhNtPDH9sQDkx5J

{"NO": 178.6291186127254, "YES": 55.98191424590961}

0.7613841362710259

video-of-an-f16-flying-over-ukraine

1061.745562030008

Video of an F-16 flying over Ukraine before 2025?

1737154740000

GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714923946994

RemNi

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if there is credible video evidence of an F-16 flying over Ukraine that emerges after May 1st 2024 and before January 1st 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The video in que...

BINARY

{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -0.13981403377998614, "month": -0.13981403377998614}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.518665781806446, "platformFee": 1.7275059043514638, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

RemNi

1720081343681

0

https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1

10

1

0.25

1690812555459

0

[{"name": "F-16", "slug": "f16", "groupId": "d7b6bacc-48d5-42a3-bc64-bdfdae763921", "createdTime": 1714923947356}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1714923947363}, {"name": "⚔️ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1714923947368}...

["f16", "ukraine", "wars"]

0.25

0.5

1720081340612

0

FtM57NXUF6byHpvYKnJU

how-many-square-kilometers-of-terri

25.999999999999982

How many square kilometers of territory will Russia gain in Ukraine in 2024?

1735707540000

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714924270706

Enopoletus Harding

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Numbers will come from the Institute for the Study of War, if available; e.g., ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 3, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs":...

NUMBER

0

{"creatorFee": 1.1182830313545502, "platformFee": 1.1182830313545502, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

EnopoletusHarding

1715608761128

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

1

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "4945fdd05708", "prob": 0.008967600388365067, "text": "-2500--2397", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.686504807196838, "userId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 75.8673978496987, "textFts": "'-2397':2 '-2500':1", "contractId": "FtM57NXUF6byHpvYKnJU", "createdTime": 1714924270706, "probChange...

0.25

1646579574703

0

[{"name": "🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1714924271107}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1714924271130}, {"name": "🇷🇺 Russia", "slug": "russia", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpi...

["ukrainerussia-war", "politics-default", "russia", "ukraine"]

0.25

1715588456457

1715608759623

True

0

0.5577925087416272

P83RaNEQRtN6T9uBDXxJ

{"NO": 11391.357296847567, "YES": 145.13991392445269}

1

will-the-5state-busy-beaver-be-know-c83dfaa03666

18442.479500772013

Will the 5-state Busy Beaver be known by 2025-01-01?

1719930742902

W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3

cpmm-1

0

10.219630315964562

True

basic

YES

public

1714924564818

Evan

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves YES if ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the Busy Beaver Challenge", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://bbchallenge.org/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 h...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.04970855423339071, "month": 0.37}

0

{"creatorFee": 124.84330881283968, "platformFee": 7.848842199422877, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719930742902

1000

EvanDaniel

1719930742902

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNNBEv2GcorWHiElPC6VlaynzKPlKxwXytwbHWc54FNIs=s96-c

23

1

0.25

1691250349596

0

[{"name": "Computational Complexity Theory", "slug": "computational-complexity-theory", "groupId": "rkDU85UpYnk6QG5tiE8U", "createdTime": 1714924565139}, {"name": "Busy Beavers", "slug": "busy-beavers", "groupId": "4fXA5gthOJaoUkFN3q03", "createdTime": 1714924565144}, {"name": "🧮 Math", "slug": "mathematics", "groupId...

["computational-complexity-theory", "busy-beavers", "mathematics"]

0.25

0.5

1719930231372

1719930733512

0.99

W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3

0

0.691814316583068

lg52stBcihzksYW4COx0

{"NO": 1057.87514206095, "YES": 963.3390033472907}

0.7114070055944052

will-ron-desantisfloridas-lab-grown

248.29373357862374

Will Ron DeSantis/Florida's Lab Grown Meat Ban be reversed before 2030? 🗽🐊🥼🧪🧫🥓🍖🥩

1893502740000

cXfjElSKSFTJVYwY3xlxH5wQlF82

cpmm-1

0

9.58250401571615

False

basic

public

1714925357435

Elf

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On Wednesday, Florida became the first US state to ban the production and sale of lab-grown, or “cell-cultivated” meat.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“Take...

BINARY

{"day": -4.440892098500626e-16, "week": -4.440892098500626e-16, "month": -4.440892098500626e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.5303784546483272, "platformFee": 3.5303784546483272, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

elf

1716279674581

0

https://firebasestorage.…225-4e706826a59b

20

0

0.25

1668973436049

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1714925357757}, {"name": "Biotech", "slug": "biotech", "groupId": "zx0Pik5lD4jydGPxbLjB", "createdTime": 1714925357763}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTim...

["us-politics", "biotech", "science-default", "politics-default"]

0.25

0.5

1716279671162

0

0.5000000000000001

LAnR7btesZHrjnJm9hae

{"NO": 111.3027608277541, "YES": 89.84503102735647}

0.5533382186364093

will-xi-jinping-and-putin-still-be-997ac6f0a4d9

63

Will Xi Jinping and Putin still be elected officials when Humans walk on the moon?

1861941540000

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714925523394

Keenen W

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if both are elected officials", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves 50% if only one is", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves No if Xi Jinping and Putin are no long...

BINARY

{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.0490036531533256, "platformFee": 1.0490036531533256, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

KeenenW

1714961255122

0

https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb

8

0

0.25

1697247005528

0

[{"name": "🇨🇳 China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1714925523664}, {"name": "Xi Putin", "slug": "xi-putin", "groupId": "e3ff0761-ee9f-48a5-92c7-d28d258b61d3", "createdTime": 1714925523669}, {"name": "🇷🇺 Russia", "slug": "russia", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime"...

["china", "xi-putin", "russia", "moon", "politics-default"]

0.25

0.5

1714961251909

0

0.5

XYzUgUimeMKzgqQ62O7K

{"NO": 71.59045020131379, "YES": 139.68343503749173}

0.3388513924491624

will-dan-make-a-fully-paywalled-epi

60

WILL DAN MAKE A FULLY PAYWALLED EPISODE BEFORE 2025?

1738472340000

KWn8yk0OlJcA2U6tpiZHss64KT93

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714926358360

SophiaCylle

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a full episode becomes Paywalled before Feburary 1st, 2025, the market will be resolved as Yes. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.6549661872398567, "platformFee": 0.16153080369162434, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

SophiaCylle

1717349599283

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1RM7aQ6dwFXAlFwWvsSPJVNaSoLBhjnU0ZENmy=s96-c

2

0

0.25

1666886861419

0

[{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1714926358659}]

["destinygg"]

0.25

0.5

1717349596168

0

0.5000000000000001

0tuUZF6NTJBbfRdcPBco

{"NO": 50.561452312832245, "YES": 197.77912901172834}

0.2035972213770114

will-anyone-be-arrested-or-fined-fo

102

Will anyone be arrested or fined for listening to this song in public in Russia by the end of August?

1725141540000

9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714926440259

Kongo Landwalker

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The song was recently deleted from Yandex music with the reason \"information aimed at destabilisation of political situation in Russia\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can listen to it ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.1713182157227248, "month": -0.1713182157227248}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.8205235034877922, "platformFee": 0.4769148398223088, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

KongoLandwalker

1719953291659

0

https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f

5

2

0.25

1681038287526

0

[{"name": "🇷🇺 Russia", "slug": "russia", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1714926440548}, {"name": "🎷 Music", "slug": "music-f213cbf1eab5", "groupId": "Xuc2UY8gGfjQqFXwxq5d", "createdTime": 1714926440547}]

["russia", "music-f213cbf1eab5"]

0.25

0.5

1719953287519

0

0.4999999999999999

DCLKBELeFoahqdg81s8Y

{"NO": 257.85338937967913, "YES": 38.7817279581127}

0.869261170740111

will-there-be-an-academy-award-for

177.48580907144697

Will there be an Academy Award for stunt men by the end of 2030?

1925009940000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714927649207

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FblTHPy3U14.png?alt=media&token=8293263c-8ae5-48ab-8e18-f1d45095cb0d", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.6063647314360538, "platformFee": 1.6063647314360538, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

strutheo

1715962255698

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

4

0

0.25

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "Hollywood", "slug": "hollywood", "groupId": "qnJlrpEJJ1i5tEJ6J2jM", "createdTime": 1714927649509}, {"name": "Academy Awards", "slug": "academy-awards", "groupId": "596832cf-ad15-46db-b4e9-c51ccd5e95d2", "createdTime": 1714927649515}, {"name": "🎥 Movies", "slug": "movies", "groupId": "KSeNIu7AWgiBBM5FqVuB", ...

["hollywood", "academy-awards", "movies", "entertainment", "oscars"]

0.25

0.5

1715962252435

0

0.5000000000000002

mFexpdLwv1sN3XoKm02z

{"NO": 159.47817457110273, "YES": 62.704505032703025}

0.7177795085354217

did-gary-howe-from-boa-killed-an-ib

167.8337277223342

Did Gary Howe from Bank of America kill an IBD Associate by making him overwork?

1735707540000

fbuCnd0kc8aWzTwsSEbzEaLgSJH3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714927824164

S

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the associate died from some stress/health-decline/exasperated-underlying-condition where the amount of work/externalities associated with overwork were major contributers, such that the particular acute physical harm would not be e...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.9139619550128166, "platformFee": 1.9139619550128166, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

sc5

1715107453038

0

https://firebasestorage.…279-98c05d787a17

7

0

0.25

1690939340600

0

[{"name": "💼 Business", "slug": "business", "groupId": "pmK8sntWL1SDkMm53UBR", "createdTime": 1714927824457}, {"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1714927824460}]

["business", "finance"]

0.25

0.5

1715107139111

1715107201938

0

0.5000000000000001

vq1DgM2JcnSCsi3qVeV6

{"NO": 74.5745153708543, "YES": 134.09406618696272}

0.35738257678332624

will-james-watson-become-a-centenar

80

Will Nobel winning scientist James Watson become a centenarian?

1838692740000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714928023860

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently age 96 when this question is made", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Born April 6 1928", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.241671658978544, "platformFee": 1.241671658978544, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

strutheo

1715724548456

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

9

0

0.25

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "🧑‍🎤 Celebrities", "slug": "celebrities", "groupId": "4QIcUOfCSSha0JZHAg9X", "createdTime": 1714928024521}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1714928024601}, {"name": "Longevity", "slug": "longevity", "groupId": "b8Ygbdfv5q2sQsZQGmkl", "creat...

["celebrities", "science-default", "longevity"]

0.25

0.5

1715724542902

0

0.3742011539020114

4iDxt5SOffBcwFzB7x9C

{"NO": 2209.09542623623, "YES": 128181.90208989156}

0

metaculus-before-july-1-2024-will-t

126839.31208299364

[Metaculus] Before July, will the ICC issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant or Halevi?

1719925200000

PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2

cpmm-1

0

4.551726046978251

True

plus

NO

public

1714928183684

Mirror Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.05878556854206505, "month": -0.35414282929887586}

0

{"creatorFee": 563.1683539883929, "platformFee": 51.514648549169735, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719944894199

10100

mirrorbot

1719925200000

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0

65

3

0.25

1696426201173

0

[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1714928184010}, {"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1714948380948}, {"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "groupId": "cea99c1c-a...

["metaculus", "israel", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "international-criminal-court"]

0.25

0.5

1719924111618

1716373620594

PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2

0

0.5000000000000001

8FGwbZmhgvZguFXHhBjV

{"NO": 168.51241606093052, "YES": 59.342808285320714}

0.7395591500893448

will-two-people-who-first-meet-in-p-db15621c342f

1686.3252942627776

Will two people who first meet in person at Manifest 2024 be married by EOY 2025?

1767340740000

kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714928377916

Ernie

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "They should post here, or someone who knows about it, if it's public, can post.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No tricks. They should have been dating romantically for at least 3 months prio...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.4895591500893447, "month": 0.4895591500893447}

0

{"creatorFee": 25.50584887166167, "platformFee": 1.0016107819166227, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

Ernie

1720153828244

0

https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466

13

2

0.25

1668384110640

0

[{"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1714928378248}, {"name": "Dating", "slug": "dating", "groupId": "j3ZE8fkeqiKmRGumy3O1", "createdTime": 1714928378268}, {"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b3...

["manifest", "dating", "manifest-2024"]

0.25

0.5

1720153825187

0

0.5

vpOCmietazhCEIQn6Ozb

{"NO": 116.7042133613801, "YES": 85.68670926245419}

0.5766277056717987

will-there-be-a-tornado-reported-an-afed291c4e5a

20

Will there be a Tornado reported anywhere in the world on March 14, 2025?

1742011140000

8r2bepHVOBVLIzkIUVIhOU72unn1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714931091527

Dr. Derek Harris

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If in the locality the tornado is occurring in it is the 14th, then it counts.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market will close on the 14th, but will be resolved a few days after to allow for accurate resolution.",...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.3092124434819743, "platformFee": 0.3092124434819743, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

DrDerek

1714936955596

0

https://firebasestorage.…68f-50c79076c06f

1

0

0.25

1682434756086

0

[{"name": "🌧️ Weather", "slug": "weather", "groupId": "Vw7PuCkPJlK51z43wA4k", "createdTime": 1714931091841}]

["weather"]

0.25

0.5

1714934878090

0

0.24195598478231356

KeP3HIWSr3x5T7aQDLzN

{"NO": 911.5649769514769, "YES": 1251.3604403944023}

0.1886495016532505

will-bitcoin-be-mentioned-in-the-20

1472.4961277047103

Will Bitcoin be mentioned in the 2024 US Presidential Debate?

1732510740000

TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2

cpmm-1

0

9.592110786955367

False

basic

public

1714931978627

Tomek ⚡ K

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "official, public presidential debates", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_debates", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underlin...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.003231084971052456}

0

{"creatorFee": 13.627116394025895, "platformFee": 10.465876836223918, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

itsTomekK

1718366765248

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c

65

0

0.25

1658666303973

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1714931978948}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1714931978937}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump"...

["2024-us-presidential-election", "the-life-of-biden", "donald-trump"]

0.25

0.5

1718366762202

1715105856289

0

0.5

BT2iaftEibm6tZBB3tLT

{"NO": 87.31640576818427, "YES": 114.5260150371848}

0.4325969011855095

will-one-of-the-characters-in-amazi

15

Will one of the characters in amazing digital circus get extracted until the end of 2024?

1735700340000

bRwvnaIowkSZmPbX08Jl6MqovdJ3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714932199166

nobody

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will any of the characters get extracted?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Not counting flashbacks for previous members of the circus.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.2369924814076011, "platformFee": 0.2369924814076011, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

Nobody007

1715888525392

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIqaNYutFrMMYyFXgAYYpZCYgrIin5v8bX4sfIj8N8t2hon2oAm=s96-c

1

0

0.25

1714925878676

0

[{"name": "Cartoons", "slug": "cartoons", "groupId": "4c6d3c89-f90f-40b4-91f4-d61281649b20", "createdTime": 1714932199389}, {"name": "The Amazing Digital Circus", "slug": "the-amazing-digital-circus", "groupId": "6f11eab8-d4ba-4ff3-aa79-acc73720898a", "createdTime": 1714932199403}]

["cartoons", "the-amazing-digital-circus"]

0.25

0.5

1715888522119

0

0.5000000000000002

Rq9MwMQeprzqTdpo5QIq

{"NO": 106.1913167103641, "YES": 94.16965821485121}

0.5300000000000001

will-the-us-be-at-full-employment-i

213.48366507871853

Will the U.S. be at full employment in December 2024?

1735707540000

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714932968606

Enopoletus Harding

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Full employment is when the number of job openings exceeds the number of unemployed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will judge by this FRED graph: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://fred.s...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.2407548409323077, "platformFee": 3.2407548409323077, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

EnopoletusHarding

1715146435258

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

8

0

0.25

1646579574703

0

[{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1714932968972}]

["economics-default"]

0.25

0.5

1715146431824

0

OcR6WU0PM65NBvNCpzva

on-how-many-days-will-i-smoke-weed-9efffaf77a87

1022.4163170655256

On how many Days will i smoke weed next week (06.05 - 12.05)

1715561079915

rMROKBpw5hSaHASvQsDrGzJ88xi1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

4d30bfe85a61

public

1714935004481

Drugsornot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "06.05 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "07.05 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "08.05 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "09.05 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.5252585282078464, "platformFee": 1.5252585282078464, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715561087197

100

Drugsornot

1715561079915

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJC2QE9apST7N13cfgLTRsUfeRGnBlFrdXSqW2C5-_Y=s96-c

3

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "ede525f76afa", "prob": 0.0013337326130493233, "text": "0-3 days", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.05495411882913, "userId": "rMROKBpw5hSaHASvQsDrGzJ88xi1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 789.9237686831724, "textFts": "'-3':2 '0':1 'day':3", "contractId": "OcR6WU0PM65NBvNCpzva", "resolverId": "rMROKBpw5hSaHASvQsDrGzJ88xi...

0.25

1701650122616

0

[{"name": "weed", "slug": "weed", "groupId": "b918750e-1b23-4223-8f0a-e4d83fcacc7b", "createdTime": 1714935004869}, {"name": "Drugs", "slug": "drugs", "groupId": "6277e258-91d0-4621-8487-f98ffa56b0c5", "createdTime": 1714935004868}, {"name": "420 baby", "slug": "420-baby", "groupId": "r6A8yqhwedPg0kW29p6u", "createdTim...

["weed", "drugs", "420-baby", "cannabis", "drug-use", "nonpredictive"]

0.25

False

1715561076144

{"4d30bfe85a61": 100}

rMROKBpw5hSaHASvQsDrGzJ88xi1

True

0

0.5

3JHstL5OfZWGl6fu8LEV

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

will-stateoftheart-llms-be-based-on

0

Will there be a state-of-the-art LLM that is NOT based on next raw token prediction before 2029?

1862024340000

8Suj4DNVaOWYLcQ9MOfP7qVX3sZ2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714936263061

Mystical Realm

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

MysticalRealm

1714937015952

0

https://storage.googleap…MOfP7qVX3sZ2.png

0

0.25

1714935967087

0

[{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1714936263289}]

["ai"]

0.25

0.5

0

0.5143240399155101

5FQPLBlYpUMoMyLW75iC

{"NO": 297.04965329638804, "YES": 42.710949739685496}

1

will-ny-rangers-beat-carolina-today

196

Will NY Rangers beat Carolina today?

1714949212446

91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1714936419968

Bruce

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.3415018549518626}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.7210273434759995, "platformFee": 1.7210273434759995, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714949212446

110

Bruce54df

1714949212446

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJohJG8pV6APMRLAdPO5Up_LhSInhyxI1tRfhbmvspk=s96-c

4

0

0.25

1697633597735

0

[{"name": "NHL 🏒", "slug": "nhl", "groupId": "lccgApXa1l7O5ZH3XfhH", "createdTime": 1714936420288}, {"name": "New York Rangers", "slug": "new-york-rangers", "groupId": "d6408a9e-0f86-478c-a1a6-c9adf0420abb", "createdTime": 1714936420303}]

["nhl", "new-york-rangers"]

0.25

0.5

1714949194450

0.88

91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1

0

HGK7xtiZvTThawdF0dtl

who-will-win-the-ciclamino-points-j-12e1c844c383

2324.2361493169374

Who will win the Ciclamino points jersey in the 2024 Giro d'Italia?

1716751263769

hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

96235a02a5a8

public

1714937119141

Eliza

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the rider awarded the ciclamino points jersey at the conclusion of the 2024 Giro d'Italia, in the post-race podium presentation in Rome. If there is an irregularity in the final stages of the race, the rider listed as the winner on ", "...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 7.859314744429617, "platformFee": 7.290438401085165, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716751263769

200

Eliza

1716751263769

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c

9

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "b908e35319b3", "prob": 0.0007604927568767493, "text": "Olav Kooij", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.042710442120665, "userId": "hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1370.0557420966636, "textFts": "'kooij':2 'olav':1", "contractId": "HGK7xtiZvTThawdF0dtl", "resolverId": "hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4af...

0.25

1680816506031

0

[{"name": "🚲 Cycling", "slug": "road-bicycle-racing", "groupId": "2yisxJryUq9V5sG7P6Gy", "createdTime": 1714937119491}, {"name": "Giro d'Italia", "slug": "giro-ditalia", "groupId": "33757f25-5833-41ee-9fd3-806a049981bc", "createdTime": 1714937119510}, {"name": "🚲 Peloton Discord", "slug": "peloton-discord", "groupI...

["road-bicycle-racing", "giro-ditalia", "peloton-discord"]

0.25

1716719428684

1715022360501

{"96235a02a5a8": 100}

hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3

True

prob-desc

0

mywsylJ3C0GPKVxcb0bP

who-will-wear-the-ciclamino-points

2318.7284568522723

Who will earn the Ciclamino points jersey in the 2024 Giro d'Italia? (At any point)

1716751283583

hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

MKT

public

1714937212363

Eliza

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any rider awarded the ciclamino points jersey at the podium presentation after a stage in the 2024 Giro d'Italia resolves Yes promptly. Any rider who is not awarded the ciclamino points jersey by the conclusion of the race's final podium presentati...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 9.105574988876473, "platformFee": 8.72731520477064, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716751283583

250

Eliza

1716751283583

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c

8

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "13c631d50b0a", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Olav Kooij", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.512594538148022, "userId": "hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 248.7468592766549, "textFts": "'kooij':2 'olav':1", "contractId": "mywsylJ3C0GPKVxcb0bP", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4...

0.25

1680816506031

0

[{"name": "🚲 Peloton Discord", "slug": "peloton-discord", "groupId": "rIVWY1mvCrXzAzPN8OcW", "createdTime": 1714937212868}, {"name": "Giro d'Italia", "slug": "giro-ditalia", "groupId": "33757f25-5833-41ee-9fd3-806a049981bc", "createdTime": 1714937212877}, {"name": "🚲 Cycling", "slug": "road-bicycle-racing", "groupI...

["peloton-discord", "giro-ditalia", "road-bicycle-racing"]

0.25

1716686204180

1715872815701

0.02

hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3

False

0

hR9238dgXclp6cSTIwtD

what-will-be-true-of-the-italian-gp

9044.69846105494

What will be true of the Italian GP weekend? ( Emilia Romagna / Imola )

1716184869953

9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

MKT

public

1714937531267

Fedor

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What's going to happen at the Imola Grand Prix 2024? Side bets for the Imola Grand Prix, you can add your own answers. About both Qualifying (18th) and the Grand Prix (19th of June) or about free practice if you want to add those. Markets should re...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 51.56059372198202, "platformFee": 51.56059372198202, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716184869953

1000

Fedor

1716200614170

0

https://firebasestorage.…d6d-1b2c6bbfbc21

30

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "54eeb7f457c5", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Verstappen wins with an 8 second lead", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.512594538148022, "userId": "9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 248.74685927665473, "textFts": "'8':5 'lead':7 'second':6 'verstappen':1 'win':2", "contractId": "hR9238dgXclp6cSTIwtD", ...

1

0.25

1678129247577

0

[{"name": "🏎️ Formula 1", "slug": "formula-1", "groupId": "OyHBKJOz9YaGkDctpwuY", "createdTime": 1714937531743}]

["formula-1"]

0.25

1716184864483

1716200612005

0.01

9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2

False

prob-desc

0

0.7781407609798987

1qHt4p7RRNIUENO0rLoN

{"NO": 1943.2294500102244, "YES": 807.7209979244723}

1

will-the-next-prime-minister-of-the

1256.3559725818322

Will the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be announced BEFORE the inauguration of the next American President?

1716398296535

Jtr9In42trPCfEKKffz8Mu5cRpI2

cpmm-1

0

9.757205885885508

True

basic

YES

public

1714937798454

Harry Hayfield

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the UK general election is held on the last possible date, January 23rd 2025, it will be AFTER the inauguration of the next American President, therefore will which happen first, the next UK general election of the inauguration of the next Ameri...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.361648097423656, "platformFee": 8.361648097423656, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716398296535

1000

HarryHayfield

1716398296535

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKLO6vk94dAyRIB1WNPhDkrZK8ww8OiBc6b0ZnDQw48Zv4=s96-c

13

0

0.25

1708098506766

0

[{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1714937798795}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1714937798819}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", ...

["politics-default", "us-politics", "uk-politics"]

0.25

0.5

1716395748310

1716398288109

0.89

Jtr9In42trPCfEKKffz8Mu5cRpI2

0

iwFivuKSJcU7WS1Jhji7

which-nba-team-will-win-the-series-6cbacadd21d5

90

Which NBA team will win the series between the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers?

1714940060483

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

CANCEL

public

1714939679776

Semiotic Rivalry

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.5271652664086057, "platformFee": 0.5271652664086057, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714940060483

100

SemioticRivalry

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf

1

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "0624afeee5af", "prob": 0.7811838505602129, "text": "Boston Celtics", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 94.47283473359138, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 26.462633486651228, "textFts": "'boston':1 'celtic':2", "contractId": "iwFivuKSJcU7WS1Jhji7", "resolverId": "B...

0.25

1669063432873

0

[{"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b559-4202-b3be-d1dffecbdecd", "createdTime": 1714939680149}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime": 1714939680150}, {"name": "NBA Playoffs", "slug": "nba-playoffs", "groupId": "8f8bc28b-e3cc-4...

["20232024-nba-season", "nba", "nba-playoffs", "sports-default", "basketball"]

0.25

1714939708131

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

True

0

Q64ohUzZlsX4vGBomM1T

which-nba-team-will-win-game-1-betw-7f7114899bfa

2617.6629650238447

Which NBA team will win Game 1 between the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers?

1715131824889

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

11d835fb0d74

public

1714939702276

Semiotic Rivalry

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 7.185060951270453, "platformFee": 7.185060951270453, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715131824889

100

SemioticRivalry

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf

20

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "11d835fb0d74", "prob": 0.9971980697055083, "text": "Boston Celtics", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 943.261384412405, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.650378825331927, "textFts": "'boston':1 'celtic':2", "contractId": "Q64ohUzZlsX4vGBomM1T", "resolverId": "BgC...

0.25

1669063432873

0

[{"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b559-4202-b3be-d1dffecbdecd", "createdTime": 1714939702666}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1714939702672}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpc...

["20232024-nba-season", "sports-default", "nba", "basketball", "nba-playoffs"]

0.25

1715131435321

{"11d835fb0d74": 100}

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

True

0

0.5230758290988036

egG1ESw8hytdJGvl8NFq

{"NO": 258.2982900850269, "YES": 158.07226200541288}

0.6418566649962524

will-nassim-taleb-publish-a-new-boo-23b664848dd2

79.3538767852335

Will Nassim Taleb publish a new book in 2025?

1767221940000

cbLvMyHDBMeApgOcL2QoWRdcve63

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714940726892

uair01

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It looks like there will be a new NNT book in 2025. See the tweets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1781448241994698827", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "ht...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.09580309976677659, "month": 0.09580309976677659}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.8632407186647175, "platformFee": 0.4845924110748729, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

200

uair01

1719651307776

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYLtCUTXQWAx5xx-hnQest6ndeRhzArY4NWM4cabw=s96-c

2

1

0.25

1680108354253

0

[{"name": "Statistics", "slug": "statistics", "groupId": "5a0a1696-a330-4a0c-8ad5-a90208ab3984", "createdTime": 1714940727326}, {"name": "Internet influencers", "slug": "internet-influencers", "groupId": "024c49f5-e01a-4b88-a55b-e74e5ff1dca0", "createdTime": 1714940727329}, {"name": "📚 Books", "slug": "books", "groupI...

["statistics", "internet-influencers", "books"]

0.25

0.5

1719651304524

0

SGgjPKnoV71LhAqyOGqg

will-manifold-pay-interest

1167.0265758321289

Will Manifold pay interest (on Mana, Shares, and Prize Points)?

1735718340000

EKnSYyz71XadjA1gChNwxubpp6J3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1714941111563

Jonas Vollmer

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each option resolves YES if Manifold starts paying interest within 2% of the US treasury rate. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Motivation:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Intere...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 9.395801984732243, "platformFee": 5.067751546761528, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

2600

JonasVollmer

1718135558353

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqZTipfMh8me9ID8kOWIN_e0cMRyQ68DN8Ikyk2p3E=s96-c

12

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "ffcf1275ceb7", "prob": 0.064878710158558, "text": "On Mana", "index": 0, "poolNo": 72.6661399144379, "userId": "EKnSYyz71XadjA1gChNwxubpp6J3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1047.364448499667, "textFts": "'mana':2", "contractId": "SGgjPKnoV71LhAqyOGqg", "createdTime": 1714941111563, "probChanges": {"day": -1.387...

0.25

1658783181899

0

[{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1714941111937}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1714941111942}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "gr...

["economics-default", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-business-future"]

0.25

1718135555249

False

0

0.5

gmEbNIivlkyQmWj2msDc

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

will-mukundh-murthy-vote-in-the-202

0

Will Mukundh Murthy vote in the 2024 Presidential election as a Michigan resident?

1735707540000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714941722461

Stochastic Cockatoo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

StochasticParrot

1714941732900

0

https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855

0

0.25

1650319241876

0

0.25

0.5

0

0.5

F1QZkGFS8LWcgcNOso2B

{"NO": 84.72568741030962, "YES": 118.02795947316419}

0.41787503560418326

will-nick-linck-vote-in-the-2024-pr

21

Will Nick linck vote in the 2024 Presidential election as a Michigan resident?

1735707540000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714941749149

Stochastic Cockatoo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.32887862534923124, "platformFee": 0.32887862534923124, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

StochasticParrot

1715029301017

0

https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855

2

0

0.25

1650319241876

0

0.25

0.5

1715029296747

0

0.49999999999999994

DrV2I2nkgrtOZNZcNBNK

{"NO": 85.09629433967632, "YES": 117.51393027860064}

0.41999999999999993

will-jeremy-nixon-vote-in-the-2024

21.538429519700315

Will William kuchenbuch vote in the 2024 Presidential election as a Michigan resident?

1735707540000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714941765111

Stochastic Cockatoo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.33911862148577093, "platformFee": 0.33911862148577093, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

StochasticParrot

1715029279206

0

https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855

2

0

0.25

1650319241876

0

0.25

0.5

1715029275940

0

jFpuKh7JJJWANJ7G28YU

when-will-the-ukraine-war-enter-a-s

750.7523138175557

When will the Ukraine war enter a state of "frozen conflict” or the ceasefire agreement is signed?

1893448740000

XsDSj6h8iGOd58jaDEyp613gOqh2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714942279295

Michael Voss

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The bet resolves as “yes” when the Ukraine-Russia war turns either into a frozen conflict or a ceasefire agreement is signed. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For a frozen conflict, following ...

NUMBER

0

{"creatorFee": 99.24218490071783, "platformFee": 7.382182245065056, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

150

MichaelVoss

1718561849780

0

https://storage.googleap…DEyp613gOqh2.png

6

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "ca3196d0e393", "prob": 0.00023004118386208035, "text": "2024.5-2024.6", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.13966504017120032, "userId": "XsDSj6h8iGOd58jaDEyp613gOqh2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 606.990927084305, "textFts": "'-2024.6':2 '2024.5':1", "contractId": "jFpuKh7JJJWANJ7G28YU", "createdTime": 1714942279296, "p...

0.25

1707865606822

0

[{"name": "🇷🇺 Russia", "slug": "russia", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1714942279734}, {"name": "🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1714942279755}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "c...

["russia", "ukrainerussia-war", "ukraine", "wars"]

0.25

1718561845513

1714950081919

True

0

0.05134469912257597

6QRmzLDIdtJsIkVqWiuo

{"NO": 918.5957135501936, "YES": 1437.7583373183165}

0.033424244006428315

will-elon-musk-serve-time-in-prison

538.3145572871814

Will Elon Musk serve time in prison at any point in 2024?

1735707540000

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1714942870289

Enopoletus Harding

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "State, local, and federal prisons all count.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.2951979534615137, "platformFee": 2.2951979534615137, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

EnopoletusHarding

1714989263322

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

10

0

0.25

1646579574703

0

[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1714942870622}]

["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.25

0.5

1714989259965

0

0.5622767987019857

EfUyxbVm9xHfl2n3r0p2

{"NO": 762.729818931733, "YES": 1230.4181009844306}

0.4432955112807395

will-the-population-of-california-g

661.8591094596811

Will the population of California go up from 2023 to 2024?

1735718340000

MJSWJeLiUuVJx2I04pm6HvDT7Kv1

cpmm-1

0

9.739229564412026

False

basic

public

1714943482565

Jim

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of July 1, 2023, the U.S. Census Bureau estimates California's population to be 38,965,193, making it the most populated state in the country. This is a decline of about 75,000 people from 2022 to 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}...

BINARY

{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.13399505995764383}

0

{"creatorFee": 17.910765474881142, "platformFee": 3.646352219764524, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

JimAusman

1718738529360

0

https://firebasestorage.…02c-9c3e2d7602ee

15

0

0.25

1669143819202

0

[{"name": "🏄 California", "slug": "california", "groupId": "72sPPf5PTwnQQWGdZ5cR", "createdTime": 1714943482847}, {"name": "US Census", "slug": "us-census", "groupId": "8f6746d0-ac47-4fdc-9f06-16ab00af1f1b", "createdTime": 1714943482864}]

["california", "us-census"]

0.25

0.5

1718738526313

0

0.5

CrvR9gYAPmO1rFZ1RiPi

{"NO": 95.99694682238955, "YES": 104.16997968176715}

0.4795844573274

will-the-grand-theft-auto-6-release-7c10e82cb351

15

Will the Grand Theft Auto 6 release be delayed until December 1st 2026 or later?

1796187540000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1714943715949

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The first trailer just came out today stating a 2025 release date.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "UvdUzpI4PRfhTxK9u6qm", "label": "/strutheo/will-the-grand...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.25149260301683235, "platformFee": 0.25149260301683235, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

strutheo

1715724393858

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

2

0

0.25

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1714943716352}, {"name": "Release Dates", "slug": "release-dates", "groupId": "cc227156-11f9-445d-88cf-f6e760cbdb86", "createdTime": 1714943716358}, {"name": "Video Games", "slug": "video-games", "groupId": "9FaZmHrfS8IcDJyu6pUD"...

["gaming", "release-dates", "video-games", "grand-theft-auto", "gta-6"]

0.25

0.5

1715724390430

0