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0.15715829936921152 | NiNDuExMwYh7EbMEXWL5 | {"NO": 613.5951116725025, "YES": 11326.830238435808} | 0 | will-there-be-an-israelhamas-ceasef-9bb6c9fd7aaa | 17786.32308066248 | Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of June 8th? | 1717905540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | NO | public | 1714943800883 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.050857886773505605} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 91.24563091404835, "platformFee": 34.59437208526807, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717960306637 | 1000 | strutheo | 1717905540000 | 0 | 49 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ต๐ธ Palestine", "slug": "palestine", "groupId": "1de63cc6-7700-472a-a943-e67cb4d3e07d", "createdTime": 1714943801214}, {"name": "๐ฎ๐ฑ Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1714943801219}, {"name": "โ๏ธ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTi... | ["palestine", "israel", "wars", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "world-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717891172242 | 1717959311632 | 0.01 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.6630935043836005 | pXRpyP5lmXm4O67mgSkt | {"NO": 1151.7949454479274, "YES": 922.2242276480167} | 0.710825984857509 | will-nintendos-successor-to-the-swi | 3709.033629144584 | Will Nintendo's successor to the Switch contain "Switch" in its name? | 1798761540000 | NndHcEmeJhPQ6n7e7yqAPa3Oiih2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.61084766656877 | False | basic | public | 1714944618708 | Josh | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the Nintendo console superseding the Switch contains the word \"Switch\" in the name. This includes names like \"Switch Pro\", \"Switch 2\", \"Switch AI\", \"ReSwitch\", or anything else that contains the substring \"switch\" (case-... | BINARY | {"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": -0.10407660588401912} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 69.79351022995264, "platformFee": 19.33819045379288, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | josh | 1719184549151 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx0QJyn3_RlfR7N92j1FntqMP_80imf6p_zLKws=s96-c | 74 | 0 | 0.25 | 1651877888759 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ฎ Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1714944619016}, {"name": "Nintendo", "slug": "nintendo", "groupId": "RP9YmNIFe88Grg68Ivp2", "createdTime": 1714944619022}, {"name": "Nintendo Direct", "slug": "nintendo-direct", "groupId": "lORj0D3Sze4Sg5ubEr9F", "createdTime": 1... | ["gaming", "nintendo", "nintendo-direct", "nintendo-switch", "video-games"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719184546073 | 1715325564990 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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PkA1BykEFrX34d5pI6bY | which-additional-websites-will-isra | 565.9554076762078 | Which additional websites/services will Israel block by the end of 2024? | 1735707540000 | 13plihwXYbcbcOexVdT6FwxILnn2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1714947518401 | siraben | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Following the recent actions against Al Jazeera, including the blocking of its websites in Israel, this market predicts what other websites or services might be blocked by the Israeli government by the end of 2024, citing national security or simil... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.234222276751604, "platformFee": 4.637689875335445, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | siraben | 1716824167917 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIs4A4vujbdVB1d-wqB5ZbOQIv-B3jMwt3yjf6luBMT=s96-c | 13 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "c29e9eccb78e", "prob": 0.34000000000000524, "text": "RT News", "index": 0, "poolNo": 78.65779977841916, "userId": "13plihwXYbcbcOexVdT6FwxILnn2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 152.68867015810423, "textFts": "'news':2 'rt':1", "contractId": "PkA1BykEFrX34d5pI6bY", "createdTime": 1714947518401, "probChanges": {"d... | 0.25 | 1708742436044 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ต๐ธ Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "groupId": "cea99c1c-afb9-49b2-adfa-9be739adce10", "createdTime": 1714947518908}, {"name": "๐ Internet", "slug": "internet", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1714947518907}, {"name": "Arab-Israeli Conflict", "slug": "arab... | ["israelhamas-conflict-2023", "internet", "arabisraeli-conflict"] | 0.25 | 1716824164343 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21836579236871587 | ymfkRJdmQw6JIJFZeN25 | {"NO": 768.1586041687631, "YES": 2176.0319157106196} | 0 | will-the-boeing-starliner-crewed-fl | 2007.5407752611845 | Will the Boeing Starliner Crewed Flight Test (Boe-CFT) be successful? | 1716333962007 | A6hZXGj8r0NPjD78ELxkTNbTtNC3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.810719579439962 | True | basic | NO | public | 1714947527192 | Anonymous | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Boeing is set to perform their ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "crewed flight test", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crewed_Flight_Test", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.047631265825602, "platformFee": 15.047631265825602, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716333962007 | 1000 | Anonymous0000 | 1717857133372 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.25 | 1688894263975 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1714947527505}, {"name": "๐ฅ๏ธ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1714947527513}, {"name": "Boeing", "slug": "boeing", "groupId": "0ad5d059-21c2-4821-a1a8-6f54dd5b3462", "cre... | ["space", "technology-default", "boeing", "starliner"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716328280255 | 1716333951565 | 0.09 | A6hZXGj8r0NPjD78ELxkTNbTtNC3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | dRWDMF0q3BOTEoS3HpY7 | {"NO": 18.61899640106526, "YES": 537.0858764131824} | 0 | will-bayesian-get-2025-of-his-next | 805.1827355783203 | Will Bayesian get 20/25 of his humanornot guesses right? | 1714948185025 | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1714947573743 | jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.415997952134141, "platformFee": 6.415997952134141, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714948185025 | 100 | jim | 1714948185025 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 1690863320225 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714948047250 | 0.03 | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000003 | EroKpgMFIMiRnmBxaUM5 | {"NO": 124.85139145737682, "YES": 80.09522267450191} | 1 | will-chris-get-to-bed-by-1045pm-at-c72649d74c29 | 56 | Will Chris get to bed by 10:45pm at least 4 times this week? | 1715539080000 | 3qVyst7MBPNUbQsnEX7JbJhWLew1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1714948690209 | emile.chat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a commitment market created via www.Emile.chat. Note: My comments on this market are in beta, so take them as signal but not gospel.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8646441215548518, "platformFee": 0.8646441215548518, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715614619186 | 100 | emile | 1715539080000 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1691876598453 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715519907914 | 0.61 | 3qVyst7MBPNUbQsnEX7JbJhWLew1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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QhJlIXx5VQJj1aMD3Jao | do-you-watch-tiktoks-or-similar-vid | 0 | Do you watch TikToks (or similar videos)? | 1715601540000 | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1714956343101 | jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715601540330 | jim | 1714956343462 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.25 | 1690863320225 | 0 | [{"name": "TikTok", "slug": "tiktok", "groupId": "MjTB5PFWedvqLHXO0vKz", "createdTime": 1714956343462}] | ["tiktok"] | 0.25 | ["54164ae60a10"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
QkO8JbPuH2f10dlROUDW | open-source-or-free-software | 0 | "Open Source" or "Free Software"? | 1715601540000 | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1714956510102 | jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715601540330 | jim | 1716297917848 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 0.25 | 1690863320225 | 0 | [{"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1714956510406}, {"name": "Open Source", "slug": "open-source", "groupId": "f8f2077f-2acf-42df-aacf-40671528224f", "createdTime": 1714956510421}, {"name": "free software", "slug": "free-software", "groupId": "f23b6629-ec64-... | ["programming", "open-source", "free-software"] | 0.25 | 1716297916359 | ["e61062c2caa7"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
VvBJYnybgmaJuZ8GoALP | gnulinux-or-linux | 0 | "GNU/Linux" or "Linux"? | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1714956567545 | jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | jim | 1714956567913 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.25 | 1690863320225 | 0 | [{"name": "Linux", "slug": "linux-680e4c3388d1", "groupId": "ITt3R6Or7pEW0HNoH2LE", "createdTime": 1714956567916}, {"name": "GNU/Linux", "slug": "gnulinux", "groupId": "b1b410e9-0076-46f8-bb26-12f69e12ad09", "createdTime": 1714956567913}] | ["linux-680e4c3388d1", "gnulinux"] | 0.25 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ZtElW3nCPkATdpYXnwCO | do-you-think-that-omohundros-univer | 0 | Do you think that Omohundro's Universal AI Drives disprove the Orthogonality Thesis? | 1715601540000 | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1714956607911 | jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715601540330 | jim | 1715136353424 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.25 | 1690863320225 | 0 | [{"name": "๐คโค๏ธ AI Alignment", "slug": "ai-alignment", "groupId": "p8Tmu38lHhN1JQavwAmR", "createdTime": 1714956608409}] | ["ai-alignment"] | 0.25 | 1715136351947 | ["4c94847cb9ae"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
IkLejhmsUfvN7qbFtavP | have-you-cried-in-the-last-year | 0 | Have you cried in the last year? | 1715601540000 | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1714956697452 | jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715601540330 | jim | 1714956697749 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0.25 | 1690863320225 | 0 | [{"name": "Emotions", "slug": "emotions", "groupId": "edfc38e2-ec7b-4f4f-85a9-04b4b66da600", "createdTime": 1714956697749}] | ["emotions"] | 0.25 | ["2e146d5f1a26"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
lRjiiZvSxsFpMdLSh3ID | have-you-hugged-anyone-in-the-last | 0 | Have you hugged anyone in the last month? | 1715601540000 | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1714956729072 | jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715601540330 | jim | 1715025993066 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.25 | 1690863320225 | 0 | [{"name": "hugging", "slug": "hugging", "groupId": "4bf49f19-949f-4f6c-a8ce-25b7d3cffe89", "createdTime": 1714956729376}] | ["hugging"] | 0.25 | 1715025991028 | ["42fd28fb44db"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
hANHe6ET5NJfi64tO4X2 | do-you-appreciate-hugs | 0 | Do you appreciate hugs? | 1715601540000 | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1714956753987 | jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715601540330 | jim | 1714956754957 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.25 | 1690863320225 | 0 | [{"name": "hugging", "slug": "hugging", "groupId": "4bf49f19-949f-4f6c-a8ce-25b7d3cffe89", "createdTime": 1714956754957}] | ["hugging"] | 0.25 | ["8879400efa02"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
T0tXITyu84tG55vVKgQN | would-you-say-you-need-hugs | 0 | Would you say you "need" hugs? | 1715601540000 | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1714956777099 | jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715601540330 | jim | 1714956777428 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0.25 | 1690863320225 | 0 | [{"name": "hugging", "slug": "hugging", "groupId": "4bf49f19-949f-4f6c-a8ce-25b7d3cffe89", "createdTime": 1714956777428}] | ["hugging"] | 0.25 | ["15a6e8e05817"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
cwfvt4BfLkHHSuJv4qk2 | out-of-the-following-people-which-i | 0 | out of the following people, which is (in your opinion) the greatest mathematician? | 1715601540000 | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1714956956923 | jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715601540331 | jim | 1714956957312 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.25 | 1690863320225 | 0 | [{"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics-18cf3686f798", "groupId": "CPP1Je8R4IcZx4DDeWuE", "createdTime": 1714956957312}] | ["mathematics-18cf3686f798"] | 0.25 | ["fb442e48af07", "c3e5236177ae"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
dIew1bcQrTJmW5VSS4D8 | bring-to-mind-the-greatest-mathemat | 0 | Bring to mind the greatest mathematician about whom you know. | 1715601540000 | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1714957025662 | jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715601540330 | jim | 1714957025968 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0.25 | 1690863320225 | 0 | [{"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics-18cf3686f798", "groupId": "CPP1Je8R4IcZx4DDeWuE", "createdTime": 1714957025968}] | ["mathematics-18cf3686f798"] | 0.25 | ["ef8fca468d07"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
XyyI8RlBv1PlMQWWxRnH | when-will-an-ai-be-able-to-write-an | 602.1570959487424 | When will an AI be able to write an OS from scratch, unsupervised, in <24hrs | 2335247940000 | etEkYCPEe5emmK4vvbR30H7i5982 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1714957154176 | Max Harms | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The AI in question must be given a prompt/command to make an operating system and deliver a functioning piece of software without human feedback, oversight, or assistance, while also spending less than one day working on it.", "type": "text"}]}, {"... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.920819964457163, "platformFee": 13.92295602387162, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MaxHarms | 1718453414944 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL0xedDuqyhLuCxjkkUd0pH8wOEEFh2BRRMNMgrdTzG1EU=s96-c | 15 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "dd965bb4e56d", "prob": 0.0007494539584672797, "text": "2024-2025", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.6108727674861186, "userId": "etEkYCPEe5emmK4vvbR30H7i5982", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 814.4795815353029, "textFts": "'-2025':2 '2024':1", "contractId": "XyyI8RlBv1PlMQWWxRnH", "createdTime": 1714957154176, "probChange... | 0.25 | 1698589418030 | 0 | [{"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1714957154581}, {"name": "๐ค AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1714957154591}, {"name": "Operating Systems", "slug": "operating-systems", "groupId": "db383ee3-77d4-4190-8295-9b2bcee844d5"... | ["programming", "ai", "operating-systems", "technical-ai-timelines"] | 0.25 | 1718453411600 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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CRYeG8xDKe0yWWZA2PWu | no-googling-challenge-which-of-the | 0 | No Googling Challenge: which of the following figures is not Jewish? | 1715601540000 | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1714957255321 | jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715601540330 | jim | 1715017435075 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0.25 | 1690863320225 | 0 | 0.25 | 1715017433336 | ["f02b3ffbd11d"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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