CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

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cpmm-1

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10.586609649448985

True

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CANCEL

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david sons

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Will a game on steam not in the top 100 most played be in the top 60 most played games at the end of May? Read desc

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cpmm-1

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10.586609649448985

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Jessie Lümbur

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Will a leading AI company productize Kolmogorov–Arnold Networks (KAN) by 2026?

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cpmm-1

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9.801839573640054

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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Evaluated YES if one of the leading AI services companies (Open AI, Google, Meta, Anthropic, or sector peer) employs KANs in a public facing service by Jan 1 2026. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"tex...

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Will Trump be held in contempt an 11th time in his New York criminal case?

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cpmm-1

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9.746905837440192

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Hyperlincoln

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Will Ken Jennings still be the host of Jeopardy on JeoparDAY 2027? (March 30)

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cpmm-1

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10.586609649448985

False

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2024-06-03: Will AMZN close above $200?

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cpmm-1

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10.586609649448985

True

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will-spacex-land-a-human-on-the-moo

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Will SpaceX land a human on the Moon before they land a human on Mars?

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cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

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1715009962354

chris (strutheo)

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will-the-first-first-gentleman-of-t

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Will the first First Gentleman of the USA be known to be a gamer?

2082776340000

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cpmm-1

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6.679599185844383

False

basic

public

1715010713671

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must have a public statement confirmed somewhere saying he likes to play video games regularly, ideally mentioning at least one by name. If he indicates that he plays but it is a rare occurrence when it happens, that will not be enough to resolve t...

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will-the-first-first-gentleman-of-t-c2fcc39e2d78

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Will the first First Gentleman of the USA be Jewish?

2082776340000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

9.67148450342734

False

basic

public

1715010776918

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must make public statements confirming", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "First Gentleman is the male equivalent of First Lady - the husband of the President of the United States", "type": "text"...

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1000

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will-the-first-first-gentleman-of-t-736d459a80a0

358.29990714102036

Will the first First Gentleman of the USA be Muslim?

2082776340000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715010817050

chris (strutheo)

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16

Will the first First Gentleman of the USA be Catholic?

2082776340000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715010840871

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must make public statements confirming", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "First Gentleman is the male equivalent of First Lady - the husband of the President of the United States", "type": "text"...

BINARY

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103

Will the first First Gentleman of the USA be atheist?

2082776340000

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cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715010862055

chris (strutheo)

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BINARY

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{"NO": 1052.639433780027, "YES": 1178.4268850492615}

0.32087812425787215

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134.90148975863752

Will Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?

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cpmm-1

0

9.476346382612958

False

basic

public

1715011525111

Zvi Mowshowitz

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is an evaluation of this prediction from Jack Clark (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/jackclarkSF/status/1787493143186948454", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/jackclarkSF/statu...

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bb5-47176870

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BB(5) = 47,176,870

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play

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1715011597416

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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES/NO if there happens to be rigorous proof for/against the conjectured value of the 5-state Busy Beaver: 47,176,870.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See more at ", "type...

BINARY

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Manifold Team April Retro: What could have gone better?

1715235748648

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True

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will-a-protest-interrupt-the-columb

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Will a protest interrupt the Columbia College Class Day Ceremony?

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cpmm-1

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10.586609649448985

True

play

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1715016319480

Madeleine Lemos

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Madeleine Lemos

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Is real spice real?

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none

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1715017540590

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will-manifolds-engaged-users-be-hig

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Will Manifold's Engaged Users be higher than Nvidia's stock price at the end of July? (10x if split)

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cpmm-1

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1715017895398

chris (strutheo)

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will-we-resurrect-commitsto-with-co

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Will we resurrect commits.to with commitments instantiated as markets?

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cpmm-1

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10.586609649448985

False

play

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1715018272772

Daniel Reeves

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dreev

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1644799031473

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will-harriet-tubman-appear-on-the-2

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Will Harriet Tubman appear on the $20 bill before the end of 2030?

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cpmm-1

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TheSchwa

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1712888273551

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1715030458630

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are-you-more-excited-for-llama-3-40

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Are you more excited for Llama 3 400B or for GPT-5?

1715687940000

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none

0

1000000

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1715020126017

jim

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1715687940493

jim

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202324-fa-cup-final-prop-bets

5069.645463011814

2023-24 FA Cup Final ⚽️🏟️ Prop Bets

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VutNSM1pulf0iLjFlNUtgVLKUzr2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

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basic

MKT

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1715020280693

mjh

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1716652616196

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meh

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1716652598149

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how-many-mit-community-members-will

494.7302042786696

How many MIT community members will be arrested on 2024-05-06 in connection with pro-Palestine demonstrations?

1715659140000

LjxyGTX5eEbxHCwZT2DGFjHXlHh1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

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1715021621306

Eleni Shor

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NVDA Derivative: How many days will NVDA close higher than the previous day?

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cpmm-multi-1

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10.586609649448985

True

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CHOOSE_MULTIPLE

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Haws

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On which stage will Tadej Pogacar first lose the pink jersey in the 2024 Giro d'Italia?

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cpmm-1

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