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FRrJ5RNWXfOe72dehH1M | in-san-francisco-what-will-be-the-h-eef7fd7620b5 | 349.53118460716837 | In San Francisco, what will be the high temperature on May 7, 2024? | 1715108400000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | a4ef29bf8954 | public | 1715047548255 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will close at 12:00 PM PT on the day of interest and will be verified with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/usa/san-francisco/historic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.823795075067989, "platformFee": 1.823795075067989, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715169473129 | 175 | ovals | 1715108400000 | 0 | 9 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "ce79b9eb026a", "prob": 0.016278849775884827, "text": "72F +", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.595240872542576, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 277.6876560032476, "textFts": "'72f':1", "contractId": "FRrJ5RNWXfOe72dehH1M", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime... | 1 | 0.25 | 1697477345360 | 0 | [{"name": "San Francisco", "slug": "san-francisco", "groupId": "77nEsKGsORflUYGveLSX", "createdTime": 1715047548656}, {"name": "🌧️ Weather", "slug": "weather", "groupId": "Vw7PuCkPJlK51z43wA4k", "createdTime": 1715047548659}, {"name": "🪸 Climate", "slug": "climate", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw", "createdTime": 1... | ["san-francisco", "weather", "climate", "high-temperature"] | 0.25 | 1715103032118 | {"a4ef29bf8954": 100} | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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M734XT1KO9LJjV3LCJaB | which-nba-team-will-win-game-2-betw-35e442ddd3f6 | 3361.8240806051417 | Which NBA team will win Game 2 between the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers? | 1715304771384 | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | c6e32368988c | public | 1715048252576 | Semiotic Rivalry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.7264989658746845, "platformFee": 7.7264989658746845, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715304771384 | 100 | SemioticRivalry | 1720053161621 | 0 | 26 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "474b1ea80624", "prob": 0.002819547688744706, "text": "Boston Celtics", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.6587215049114548, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 940.3015680212242, "textFts": "'boston':1 'celtic':2", "contractId": "M734XT1KO9LJjV3LCJaB", "resolverId": ... | 0.25 | 1669063432873 | 0 | [{"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime": 1715048252964}, {"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b559-4202-b3be-d1dffecbdecd", "createdTime": 1715048252955}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQ... | ["nba", "20232024-nba-season", "sports-default", "nba-playoffs", "basketball"] | 0.25 | 1715304258227 | {"c6e32368988c": 100} | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
IUjw4H2p8lJkSWHa5TJ9 | which-nba-team-will-win-game-3-betw-9b91e7c40233 | 2745.425326600595 | Which NBA team will win Game 3 between the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers? | 1715482287896 | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | 6f52991638a8 | public | 1715048259950 | Semiotic Rivalry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.7474749416271416, "platformFee": 3.7474749416271416, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715482287896 | 100 | SemioticRivalry | 1720053161621 | 0 | 22 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "6f52991638a8", "prob": 0.998363352489979, "text": "Boston Celtics", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1234.91408097308, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.024432337859537, "textFts": "'boston':1 'celtic':2", "contractId": "IUjw4H2p8lJkSWHa5TJ9", "resolverId": "BgCe... | 0.25 | 1669063432873 | 0 | [{"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b559-4202-b3be-d1dffecbdecd", "createdTime": 1715048260347}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime": 1715048260354}, {"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMD... | ["20232024-nba-season", "nba", "basketball", "sports-default", "nba-playoffs"] | 0.25 | 1715482284428 | {"6f52991638a8": 100} | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
mDxtPtJEp7RySXABGJuY | which-nba-team-will-win-game-4-betw-3cb3e9a864cd | 4432.121492736457 | Which NBA team will win Game 4 between the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers? | 1715650096658 | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | 7412f11a8588 | public | 1715048267068 | Semiotic Rivalry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.92693364486474, "platformFee": 19.92693364486474, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715650096658 | 100 | SemioticRivalry | 1720053161621 | 0 | 29 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "7412f11a8588", "prob": 0.997251871031546, "text": "Boston Celtics", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 952.475644323805, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.6247390312797165, "textFts": "'boston':1 'celtic':2", "contractId": "mDxtPtJEp7RySXABGJuY", "resolverId": "BgC... | 0.25 | 1669063432873 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1715048267497}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime": 1715048267500}, {"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 171504826... | ["sports-default", "nba", "basketball", "nba-playoffs", "20232024-nba-season"] | 0.25 | 1715650048264 | {"7412f11a8588": 100} | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
IDkA74KBWBVXnC84MxIO | which-nba-team-will-win-game-5-betw-d108a1a3084b | 2591.2315911568285 | Which NBA team will win Game 5 between the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers? | 1715822698184 | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | 1db7c48f370c | public | 1715048276822 | Semiotic Rivalry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "n/a if game doesnt happen", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.757938986601479, "platformFee": 4.757938986601479, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715822698184 | 100 | SemioticRivalry | 1720053161621 | 0 | 24 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "1db7c48f370c", "prob": 0.9977642812379081, "text": "Boston Celtics", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1056.2710938614607, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.3668166387671192, "textFts": "'boston':1 'celtic':2", "contractId": "IDkA74KBWBVXnC84MxIO", "resolverId": "... | 0.25 | 1669063432873 | 0 | [{"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime": 1715048277216}, {"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1715048277218}, {"name": "NBA Playoffs", "slug": "nba-playoffs", "groupId": "8f8bc28b-e3cc-4cb4-885f-6486002430f1", "created... | ["nba", "basketball", "nba-playoffs", "sports-default", "20232024-nba-season"] | 0.25 | 1715822519654 | 1715799416301 | {"1db7c48f370c": 100} | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
CackaI2l3yKySfvedSVu | which-nba-team-will-win-game-6-betw-e7e3d98b8131 | 79.07000294753203 | Which NBA team will win Game 6 between the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers? | 1735707540000 | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715048283185 | Semiotic Rivalry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "n/a if game doesnt happen", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6131179059893348, "platformFee": 0.6131179059893348, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | SemioticRivalry | 1720053161621 | 0 | 5 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "4171667ee941", "prob": 0.7075547191746573, "text": "Boston Celtics", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 77.77279582299525, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 32.144916143812104, "textFts": "'boston':1 'celtic':2", "contractId": "CackaI2l3yKySfvedSVu", "createdTime": 1... | 0.25 | 1669063432873 | 0 | [{"name": "NBA Playoffs", "slug": "nba-playoffs", "groupId": "8f8bc28b-e3cc-4cb4-885f-6486002430f1", "createdTime": 1715048283583}, {"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1715048283570}, {"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId":... | ["nba-playoffs", "basketball", "20232024-nba-season", "nba", "sports-default"] | 0.25 | 1715741084092 | 1717957545816 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
mkbo4wJA47jG3cdeWLoD | which-nba-team-will-win-game-7-betw-ea20eaf0d0fa | 26.82759399423772 | Which NBA team will win Game 7 between the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers? | 1735707540000 | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715048289633 | Semiotic Rivalry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "n/a if game doesnt happen", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.21665566801941102, "platformFee": 0.21665566801941102, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | SemioticRivalry | 1720053161621 | 0 | 3 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "4101611b2993", "prob": 0.5804829435380129, "text": "Boston Celtics", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 58.81524691371697, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 42.50598494753488, "textFts": "'boston':1 'celtic':2", "contractId": "mkbo4wJA47jG3cdeWLoD", "createdTime": 17... | 0.25 | 1669063432873 | 0 | [{"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1715048290075}, {"name": "NBA Playoffs", "slug": "nba-playoffs", "groupId": "8f8bc28b-e3cc-4cb4-885f-6486002430f1", "createdTime": 1715048290076}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaF... | ["basketball", "nba-playoffs", "sports-default", "nba", "20232024-nba-season"] | 0.25 | 1715049309972 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
OFcen5SzP6MOB3UGwI6Z | what-will-the-anthropic-sae-paper-c | 106.81734974684645 | What will the Anthropic SAE paper contain? | 1716342525097 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1715048347983 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve according to Stephen Casper's judgments.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1787270794017702045"}}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2004092368832915, "platformFee": 1.2004092368832915, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716342525097 | 250 | Tetraspace | 1716342525097 | 0 | 6 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "b9dd709c5531", "prob": 0.74, "text": "Eye-test experiments", "index": 0, "poolNo": 41.853504425302106, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14.933038668612948, "textFts": "'experi':4 'eye':2 'eye-test':1 'test':3", "contractId": "OFcen5SzP6MOB3UGwI6Z", "resolution": "YES", "re... | 0.25 | 1642130392212 | 0 | [{"name": "Anthropic", "slug": "anthropic", "groupId": "B8jfqGL9Uqu5nejktmVi", "createdTime": 1715048348741}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715048348738}, {"name": "Mechanistic interpretability", "slug": "mechanistic-interpretability", "groupId": "JwFENl9sVYNaFAvdAEJ... | ["anthropic", "ai", "mechanistic-interpretability"] | 0.25 | 1715289892937 | 1716342496833 | 0.22 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | False | prob-desc | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | NzaSSWV8xHKVFPYTWMEx | {"NO": 106.08279928829532, "YES": 94.26598908672793} | 0.5294905956192959 | will-i-take-apmo-2025-as-a-member-o | 8.401506051331475 | Will I take APMO 2025 as a member of the canadian team? | 1741762740000 | 1HLqQlKy3lNBjSbxCvoP8EqJbXt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715048658172 | Han Wu | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This year I scored 7/4/7/7/0 on CJMO (6th out of 21) and am hoping to make CMO+APMO next year. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.0045696479706263116, "month": 0.0045696479706263116} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.1549337846171222, "platformFee": 0.12289845554795928, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | HanWu | 1719781380409 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIF2sETj_eqpdCNJPjl3cAHwceh13O1UFnqe4Zp3feegdxRvHaO=s96-c | 3 | 1 | 0.25 | 1714947832749 | 0 | [{"name": "Competition Math", "slug": "competition-math", "groupId": "64e0006d-606d-4e68-ad95-045c341bb9d1", "createdTime": 1715048658407}] | ["competition-math"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719781377033 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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h5uEM5WB9frRWnR3hvsT | which-country-will-host-world-chess | 7623.1781255396845 | Which country will host World Chess Championship 2024? | 1719839613936 | FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | 914a9f0c76d6 | public | 1715061207587 | Weezing | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "FIDE CEO:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No formal bids have arrived, but we are at intense talks with several countries, with India and Singapore being on the most advanced stage... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 30.655219107327866, "platformFee": 2.9880112289689187, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719839613936 | 1000 | Weezing | 1719839613936 | 0 | 15 | 2 | ANYONE | [{"id": "353270c85244", "prob": 0.006926712777229979, "text": "India", "index": 0, "poolNo": 26.54471179488337, "userId": "FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3805.678833281676, "textFts": "'india':1", "contractId": "h5uEM5WB9frRWnR3hvsT", "resolverId": "FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1", "createdTi... | 0.25 | 1700212225777 | 0 | [{"name": "Board Games", "slug": "board-games", "groupId": "Hu6z8BYs5Xz3ZRyai8MF", "createdTime": 1715061208127}, {"name": "2024 World Chess Championship", "slug": "2024-world-chess-championship", "groupId": "82bbe890-f64b-464b-9a21-7858dafbc5a5", "createdTime": 1715061208129}, {"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug": "chess", "gr... | ["board-games", "2024-world-chess-championship", "chess", "sports-default"] | 0.25 | 1719839548084 | 1719839571189 | {"914a9f0c76d6": 100} | FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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gH8IlWWAbclVOcEjzZcX | when-will-starship-reach-orbit | 94.43923851596827 | When will Starship reach orbit? | 1793548740000 | 2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715064906130 | Josh Wilkes | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An 'orbit' here is defined as a trajectory on which if no re-entry burn is fired Starship would remain in space for a period of over 24 hours (I don't want to get 'burned' by some sort of wacky sub-orbital flight that still lands at Starbase or in ... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.41858074504481, "platformFee": 3.593500423725798, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | JoshuaWilkes | 1717351260038 | 0 | 5 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "8c4a15eeea79", "prob": 0.006824731858543069, "text": "2024.35-2024.4", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.5921092047606837, "userId": "2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 86.16722684439013, "textFts": "'-2024.4':2 '2024.35':1", "contractId": "gH8IlWWAbclVOcEjzZcX", "createdTime": 1715064906130, "p... | 0.25 | 1662006482315 | 0 | [{"name": "Starship Launch Party", "slug": "starship-launch-party", "groupId": "c0364479-2615-4be2-8e3d-74f5d2ab0383", "createdTime": 1715064906610}, {"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh", "createdTime": 1715064906612}, {"name": "Rockets", "slug": "rockets", "groupId": "Z1UrYn5vMs6e3... | ["starship-launch-party", "spacex", "rockets", "space", "artemis-program"] | 0.25 | 1717351256046 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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GPdRe9IK4tI5iGHsAvCT | which-of-these-exact-words-or-phras | 321.4301477770964 | Which of these exact words or phrases will appear in "The Winds of Winter"? [your answers] | 2051308740000 | PDt0ZBUmBCfpnynOmre77KYqVim2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715105244162 | Lisa Marsh | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a mega-market for words and phrases that may or may not appear in \"The Winds of Winter\", the long-awaited sixth book in the series \"A Song of Ice and Fire\" by George R.R. Martin.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "par... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.3091742060141245, "platformFee": 4.3091742060141245, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | lisamarsh | 1715791374046 | 0 | 11 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "04ff60fbb7fd", "prob": 0.4123377988225954, "text": "cute/cuter/cutest", "index": 0, "poolNo": 27.59490700516674, "userId": "PDt0ZBUmBCfpnynOmre77KYqVim2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 39.32815239894867, "textFts": "'cute/cuter/cutest':1", "contractId": "GPdRe9IK4tI5iGHsAvCT", "createdTime": 1715105244162, "pro... | 0.25 | 1644854925447 | 0 | [{"name": "A Song of Ice and Fire", "slug": "a-song-of-ice-and-fire", "groupId": "473b14db-80a1-40d2-bf58-b27aa6019ee7", "createdTime": 1715105244585}, {"name": "Game of Thrones", "slug": "game-of-thrones", "groupId": "ee4b4888-8ef0-4ed4-a579-84ef4f9771ff", "createdTime": 1715105244595}, {"name": "📚 Books", "slug": "b... | ["a-song-of-ice-and-fire", "game-of-thrones", "books"] | 0.25 | 1715791370771 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
id4eidR1WL7HvI6aLNSM | metacritic-score-of-eldenring-shado | 315.95159830563045 | Metacritic score of Eldenring: Shadow of the Erdtree one month after its release? | 1721599140000 | Gv076pTh0ZQUVwTqQt9Ro2xnz2f1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715106076005 | Marktwse | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This game currently has the highest expectations: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "eWFtK5xoLBnebRLkmEP2", "label": "/Tripping/what-video-game-will-have-the-highe-be08b92fa9ea"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"t... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.854415851169897, "platformFee": 5.6794350711358526, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | marktwse | 1720070122826 | 0 | 10 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "1b56df79f7ff", "prob": 0.0007235071851767279, "text": "70-71", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.2542550439917781, "userId": "Gv076pTh0ZQUVwTqQt9Ro2xnz2f1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 351.16595086546624, "textFts": "'-71':2 '70':1", "contractId": "id4eidR1WL7HvI6aLNSM", "createdTime": 1715106076005, "probChanges": {"d... | 0.25 | 1671579488806 | 0 | [{"name": "Metacritic", "slug": "metacritic", "groupId": "e657c1b9-f8c5-40b8-aa27-858c85409a23", "createdTime": 1715106076925}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1715106076928}] | ["metacritic", "gaming"] | 0.25 | 1720070118997 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.17965032268482248 | lcKXbGSeS0lNIKUpszeD | {"NO": 693.1570403048829, "YES": 4618.362065594358} | 0 | will-destiny-talk-to-nick-fuentes-a-2483d5de0271 | 4022.6392169352644 | Will Destiny talk to Nick Fuentes again in May 2024? | 1717225140000 | foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.112243301911544 | True | basic | NO | public | 1715107981506 | Punished Furry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Destiny has expressed interest in doing more twitter spaces after his successful debate with Tate, Nick Fuentes, and Sneako on 5/5/24.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1787858216967192585"}}... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.03182202765952939} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 22.008809070228075, "platformFee": 5.950508960938147, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717234451221 | 1000 | PunishedFurry | 1717225140000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3go4lmW16N7oUihjjm8IiRRoMb5Dw2cMM1P1-g=s96-c | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1666746014983 | 0 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1715107981831}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1715107981834}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "c... | ["destinygg", "culture-default", "politics-default", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717171426990 | 1715726593387 | 0.03 | foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.13999999999999999 | zvyC4W3g77hCmHjVwVNn | {"NO": 94.23863368673629, "YES": 143.9818298887473} | 0.09628975511847458 | will-my-simple-agi-investment-insur | 51 | Will "My simple AGI investment & insurance strategy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715110541982 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.23473811219152446, "platformFee": 0.23473811219152446, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | LessWrong | 1715313587242 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1715110542335}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1715313583993 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | LbStvCHqhO5Ai2TmnisH | {"NO": 994.9874371066181, "YES": 10.050378152592117} | 1 | will-destiny-talk-to-aba-in-may-202 | 1951.7867227678319 | Will Destiny talk to Aba in May 2024? | 1715112661314 | foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1715111119526 | Punished Furry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.620495609159151, "platformFee": 5.620495609159151, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715112661314 | 100 | PunishedFurry | 1715112661314 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3go4lmW16N7oUihjjm8IiRRoMb5Dw2cMM1P1-g=s96-c | 11 | 0 | 0.25 | 1666746014983 | 0 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1715111119943}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1715111119960}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDl... | ["destinygg", "technology-default", "politics-default", "culture-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715112504645 | 0.99 | foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5108863734474214 | AJ8dpp7D8UUN9bc6JXrl | {"NO": 1002.4491051038264, "YES": 997.6094421699984} | 0.512095616507712 | will-sam-altman-be-ceo-of-open-ai-w | 155 | Will Sam Altman be CEO of Open AI when Strong AGI is achieved by any organization? | 2082776340000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.575220130884873 | False | basic | public | 1715112414219 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Strong AGI as determined by the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "official market", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708", "class": "break-any... | BINARY | {"day": 6.661338147750939e-16, "week": 6.661338147750939e-16, "month": 6.661338147750939e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.6074526736743153, "platformFee": 2.6074526736743153, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1715269161899 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.25 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715112414539}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1715112414537}, {"name": "Sam Altman", "slug": "sam-altman", "groupId": "1uWeVVcfTCgL7T2l7hJg", "createdTime": 1715112414540}, {"na... | ["ai", "openai", "sam-altman", "technology-default", "business"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715269157636 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AzRFGOqw1xTdyodXRQlq | when-will-manifold-pivot-from-the-p | 1260.2753400667846 | When will Manifold pivot from the Pivot? | 1767254340000 | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1715113987277 | Pat Scott🩴 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Has to be a major shift in paradigm, but not necessarily a complete abandonment of the idea. As it might be fairly subjective, I won't bet.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some directionality ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.359408722469132, "platformFee": 3.2698670701167605, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Stralor | 1718868878499 | 0 | 18 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "5f55c5f45c97", "prob": 0.01, "text": "By EOM June 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.852671956244194, "userId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1074.4145236681752, "textFts": "'2024':4 'eom':2 'june':3", "contractId": "AzRFGOqw1xTdyodXRQlq", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "hUM4SO8a... | 0.25 | 1677017053373 | 0 | [{"name": "Pivot", "slug": "pivot", "groupId": "825a042c-ac2e-4dd9-9edd-1545fafc8719", "createdTime": 1715113987666}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1715113987692}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "group... | ["pivot", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-business-future"] | 0.25 | 1718868875443 | 1718829952890 | False | old | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2795573911159402 | 4RPTODxPehmsYgONkTm0 | {"NO": 23115.2375126299, "YES": 385913.9600400213} | 0 | will-borussia-dortmund-beat-bayern | 885855.9756473614 | Will Borussia Dortmund beat Real Madrid? ⚽|🏆 Champions League Final | 1717275451353 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2527427864728957 | True | plus | NO | public | 1715115189858 | The Official | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At the conclusion of the final match of the UEFA Champions League, including regular time, and if applicable, extra time and a penalty shoot-out, will Borussia Dortmund beat Real Madrid?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.3310736986798974} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6731.218081635022, "platformFee": 6731.218081635022, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717275451353 | 51000 | 10thOfficial | 1717332317917 | 0 | 400 | 0 | 0.25 | 1682437068858 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1715115190149}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1715115190160}, {"name": "UEFA Champions League", "slug": "uefa-champions-league", "groupId": "jgZHnM9QIVaWt6OmPhm3... | ["sports-default", "soccer", "uefa-champions-league", "germany", "spain"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717275446663 | 1717332316556 | 0.02 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 0v6B4ZMxaMM1qWBSFuNS | {"NO": 80.6594622728789, "YES": 123.9780147079213} | 0.39415782222748313 | will-manifold-enact-any-of-the-idea | 89.50006797157678 | Will Manifold enact any of the ideas from "The Bazaar of Knowledge" concept for what the pivot could be, by end 2024? | 1735718340000 | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715115959046 | Pat Scott🩴 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Bazaar of Knowledge", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1237174697620279417", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 a... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.1439552000221676, "platformFee": 1.1439552000221676, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Stralor | 1715971152586 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.25 | 1677017053373 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1715115959383}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1715115959381}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-bus... | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-business-future", "pivot"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715971149306 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
N3cv6F0oX6r8wTQQLWd0 | what-will-the-fivethirtyeight-polli | 251.73358113815257 | What will the FiveThirtyEight polling average be one month after the conclusion of Trump's Manhattan criminal trial? | 1719817140000 | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | 372ad24ac5cc | public | 1715116536237 | Savior of Plant | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/", "class": "break-anywhere hover... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.4338068881106105, "platformFee": 0.23303639056571004, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719861739025 | 100 | SaviorofPlant | 1719817140000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | 7 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "372ad24ac5cc", "prob": 0.4497995412896153, "text": "Trump leads", "index": 0, "poolNo": 26.101075747241705, "userId": "FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 31.927164282544894, "textFts": "'lead':2 'trump':1", "contractId": "N3cv6F0oX6r8wTQQLWd0", "resolverId": "FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9... | 0.25 | 1698371327350 | 0 | [{"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1715116536648}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1715116536651}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "... | ["polls", "us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 1719619125110 | 1717104618506 | {"372ad24ac5cc": 100} | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | True | 0 |
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