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0.5 | rTXd6iJLsS2KmbL9OnYq | {"NO": 87.69232098371945, "YES": 114.0350704351474} | 0.43470705870396686 | will-starlink-spin-out-of-spacex-an | 49.39546192730286 | Will Starlink spin out of SpaceX and IPO before the end of 2027? | 1830315540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715271136725 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "Y43SGqEavXR03Zeeuyi8", "label": "/strutheo/will-starlink-spin-out-of-spacex-an-cee0261a6e83"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7401574228650898, "platformFee": 0.7401574228650898, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1715380199738 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.25 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh", "createdTime": 1715271137060}, {"name": "💼 Business", "slug": "business", "groupId": "pmK8sntWL1SDkMm53UBR", "createdTime": 1715271137072}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1715271137082}... | ["spacex", "business", "space", "starlink", "stocks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715380196505 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | Y43SGqEavXR03Zeeuyi8 | {"NO": 55.74337807771696, "YES": 179.39350546818451} | 0.2370677761697697 | will-starlink-spin-out-of-spacex-an-cee0261a6e83 | 107 | Will Starlink spin out of SpaceX and IPO before the end of 2026? | 1798779540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715271162656 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "rTXd6iJLsS2KmbL9OnYq", "label": "/strutheo/will-starlink-spin-out-of-spacex-an"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3820475181540832, "platformFee": 1.3820475181540832, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1715379852147 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.25 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh", "createdTime": 1715271162982}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1715271162992}, {"name": "💼 Business", "slug": "business", "groupId": "pmK8sntWL1SDkMm53UBR", "createdTime": 1715271162994}... | ["spacex", "space", "business", "starlink", "stocks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715379848909 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | YCxpTuA1tRyY8rSOxkh6 | {"NO": 27.435163058437134, "YES": 364.4957377763683} | 0 | rahul-gandhi-to-be-the-next-prime-m | 1074.453318105269 | Rahul Gandhi to be the next Prime Minister Of india ? | 1717700778565 | WQfTjPifDhVH95Ur8RLIQDF0OYS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1715271231079 | Shaikh Niyaz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.07000000000000195} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.989644722961207, "platformFee": 2.709220658064091, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717700778565 | 100 | ShaikhNiyaz | 1717700778565 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL3elFZvmUlWaaKLc014e-jjFyF-C_600KOClkMTY-NzoF2T_k2=s96-c | 13 | 0 | 0.25 | 1714146486603 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1715271231567}, {"name": "🇮🇳 India", "slug": "india", "groupId": "Y2J00UcVhr3wKq2lAOAy", "createdTime": 1715271231589}, {"name": "2024 Indian general election", "slug": "2024-indian-general-election", "groupId": "c4... | ["us-politics", "india", "2024-indian-general-election", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717495745712 | 0.07 | WQfTjPifDhVH95Ur8RLIQDF0OYS2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | KB2Mmer2iM1y2yuHEIMM | {"NO": 42.00840252084028, "YES": 238.04761428476164} | 0.15000000000000002 | what-will-be-my-credence-in-2030-in | 437.6814757017832 | What will be my credence in 2030 that Erythritol net reduces lifespan in humans? | 1925020740000 | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715272086724 | Jonathan Ray | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Relative to abstinence from sweeteners, not relative to an equivalent sweetness of sugar or other sweeteners.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If I had to resolve today I would do 75%.", "type": "text"}, {"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.030930390712357203} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.670913572499092, "platformFee": 2.1319821486863053, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | JonathanRay | 1717683403667 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.25 | 1647294987992 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717683400399 | 1717683291379 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | LxrqZJMZLyFLTmOlOQL9 | {"NO": 156.47922366434392, "YES": 63.90624752491432} | 1 | will-al-nassr-beat-alakhdoud-during | 58 | Will Al Nassr beat Al-Akhdoud during regular time on Thu, May 9 2024? Saudi Pro League🇸🇦 | 1715286126378 | seF80w4NuDXRDFINDuLgJPZb4A83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1715272132080 | celery | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market resolves as YES if: Al Nassr has more goals.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Market resolves as NO if: The score is even, or Al-Akhdoud has more goals.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7603881678280366, "platformFee": 0.7603881678280366, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715286126378 | 100 | WhoamI748e | 1715286126378 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKUqqQCy_0aaMYaUr-4Yqx9_5mI-AGwfE8G2mx2p1iLgVY=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 1710768426467 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1715272132396}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1715272132400}, {"name": "Saudi Pro League", "slug": "saudi-pro-league", "groupId": "b9c2d708-e5b6-4b89-9b53-ca404d81b... | ["football", "soccer", "saudi-pro-league", "sports-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715284093957 | 0.71 | seF80w4NuDXRDFINDuLgJPZb4A83 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | PdSv9EpVZNxWDxaJCenJ | {"NO": 51.33749390393005, "YES": 194.78940710883575} | 0 | will-al-nassr-win-the-riyadh-derby | 144.9788775497578 | Will Al Nassr win the Riyadh derby during regular time on Fri, May 17, 2024? Saudi Pro League🇸🇦 | 1715977183860 | seF80w4NuDXRDFINDuLgJPZb4A83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1715272262897 | celery | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market resolves as YES if: Al Nassr has more goals.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Market resolves as NO if: The score is even, or Al Hilal has more goals.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6506414683040012, "platformFee": 1.6506414683040012, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715977183860 | 100 | WhoamI748e | 1715977199249 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKUqqQCy_0aaMYaUr-4Yqx9_5mI-AGwfE8G2mx2p1iLgVY=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.25 | 1710768426467 | 0 | [{"name": "Saudi Pro League", "slug": "saudi-pro-league", "groupId": "b9c2d708-e5b6-4b89-9b53-ca404d81bf9b", "createdTime": 1715272263292}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1715272263286}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVh... | ["saudi-pro-league", "football", "sports-default", "soccer"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715977172102 | 1715977197968 | 0.21 | seF80w4NuDXRDFINDuLgJPZb4A83 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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zPPBhJPDX58UjlNpe2yr | what-tier-will-zvi-rank-free-stars | 50 | What tier will Zvi rank Free Stars: Children of Infinity (aka the real Star Control 3) | 1892177940000 | WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715274091114 | Zvi Mowshowitz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves when Zvi has played sufficiently to evaluate the answer of how he will evaluate the final release version. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Link to the Kickstarter: ", "type": "text"}... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8504644320167288, "platformFee": 0.2964833592493501, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 150 | ZviMowshowitz | 1716792808832 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c | 4 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "f2e4a68ca8ae", "prob": 0.11526343052000794, "text": "Tier 1 (Must Play)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 12.106400651609789, "userId": "WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 92.92605063837942, "textFts": "'1':2 'must':3 'play':4 'tier':1", "contractId": "zPPBhJPDX58UjlNpe2yr", "createdTime": 17152... | 0.25 | 1644001035848 | 0 | [{"name": "Zvi Mowshowitz", "slug": "zvi-mowshowitz", "groupId": "ZnlEbwCK8HjUnjZLm0cA", "createdTime": 1715274091504}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1715274091556}] | ["zvi-mowshowitz", "gaming"] | 0.25 | 1716792804594 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | YcUgIRH687QlFF2SJ8GI | {"NO": 139.68343503749173, "YES": 71.59045020131379} | 0.6611486075508375 | poland-will-judge-szmydt-stay-alive | 60 | Poland: Will Judge Szmydt stay alive through 2024? | 1735685940000 | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715275984714 | Tomek ⚡ K | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The National Prosecutor’s of Poland had requests permission for detention and temporary arrest of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Tomasz Szmydt", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", a polish judge at the Provincial Administrativ... | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.20720217278031322} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6549661872398567, "platformFee": 0.16153080369162434, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | itsTomekK | 1719177365513 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.25 | 1658666303973 | 0 | [{"name": "Central Europe", "slug": "central-europe", "groupId": "fiFxXettsJwAQ9hBBErv", "createdTime": 1715275985090}, {"name": "Poland", "slug": "poland", "groupId": "eGQaygk9D261Iu1uBpDA", "createdTime": 1715275985092}, {"name": "Politics in Poland", "slug": "politics-in-poland", "groupId": "whsgvInMwvBGcOKEQB85", "... | ["central-europe", "poland", "politics-in-poland"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719177362454 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
cBGIJeBOs6xNd2ChHrxA | in-2050-how-many-us-states-will-hav | 30 | In 2050, how many U.S. states will have its capital in Washington, D.C.? | 2524604340000 | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715276288355 | Tomek ⚡ K | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve to the number of states under federated government with its capital city in Washington, DC, on January 1 2050", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5053513367495572, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | itsTomekK | 1717331690286 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "fd562adb0ef8", "prob": 0.42628179385687176, "text": "50", "index": 0, "poolNo": 24.883327378178645, "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 33.489626233191075, "textFts": "'50':1", "contractId": "cBGIJeBOs6xNd2ChHrxA", "createdTime": 1715276288355, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week... | 0.25 | 1658666303973 | 0 | [{"name": "Demographics", "slug": "demographics", "groupId": "o07IBKsPqPBxuYxDFGqT", "createdTime": 1715276288795}] | ["demographics"] | 0.25 | 1717331687101 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | gNMr5stZnBZlbbwBvPa3 | {"NO": 63.30241761457225, "YES": 157.97184968332087} | 0.2860812438228554 | will-bitcoin-dominance-reach-80-bef-8259348abe0e | 314.3919601943781 | Will Bitcoin dominance reach 80% before 2040? | 2208920340000 | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715276373505 | Tomek ⚡ K | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bitcoin dominance is a share of Bitcoin's marketcap in the total marketcap of global cryptocurrencies.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "At the conception time of this market, Bitcoin's dominance was around ... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 0.06534655764748123} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.3365937718077125, "platformFee": 1.0020252276404409, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | itsTomekK | 1718735001332 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.25 | 1658666303973 | 0 | [{"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1715276373826}, {"name": "🅱️ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "createdTime": 1715276373830}, {"name": "Bitcoin maxi", "slug": "bitcoin-maxi", "groupId": "q6y2Gz8Wmy4nZwtfmpHt", "created... | ["crypto-speculation", "bitcoin", "bitcoin-maxi", "2024-3d9da60b52f8"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718734998291 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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MRnysntjjTGoOvvcgMR3 | how-many-people-will-attend-mom-sun | 122.26031227685665 | How many people will attend MoM (Sun May 12)? | 1715583540000 | w29JuzBYXLM9t89V7IzuSl5Ay9p2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | 6698a3814c44 | public | 1715282123879 | Derik K | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "MoM (Mixture of Minds)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://sfo.mom", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "targ... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.604848163596562, "platformFee": 3.604848163596562, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715838506694 | 100 | derikk | 1715583540000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjMMD3hpowUw0WGPs_qJTqQyB5X_6EEY691J3ABqA=s96-c | 7 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "663aed6bc679", "prob": 0.027399902674299318, "text": "0-5", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.5303524483563935, "userId": "w29JuzBYXLM9t89V7IzuSl5Ay9p2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 89.81860508023456, "textFts": "'-5':2 '0':1", "contractId": "MRnysntjjTGoOvvcgMR3", "resolverId": "w29JuzBYXLM9t89V7IzuSl5Ay9p2", "created... | 1 | 0.25 | 1648417904218 | 0 | [{"name": "SF Events", "slug": "sf-events", "groupId": "qSQNlQOaDWJhZJESqY12", "createdTime": 1715282124298}] | ["sf-events"] | 0.25 | 1715494171151 | 1715293492533 | {"6698a3814c44": 100} | w29JuzBYXLM9t89V7IzuSl5Ay9p2 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4887565783371867 | qGPA2EwfA5gs65XuieaO | {"NO": 1047.6422979928846, "YES": 949.3374563519409} | 0.5133847743090011 | will-rick-korzekwa-have-a-romantic | 624.7529038852161 | Will Rick Korzekwa have a "romantic encounter" on the Pacific Crest Trail? | 1727765940000 | yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.581960962640187 | False | basic | public | 1715315971496 | Daniel Filan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My friend, Rick Korzekwa, is embarking on the Pacific Crest Trail on May 11. Once he comes back, I will ask him if he had a romantic encounter with someone while on the trail. Will he say yes?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "p... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.045606666853237, "platformFee": 10.045606666853237, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | DanielFilan | 1716337480926 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0.25 | 1644858977426 | 0 | [{"name": "❤️🔥 Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3", "createdTime": 1715315972366}, {"name": "Hiking", "slug": "hiking", "groupId": "ed0d67d9-359b-44df-a2dc-37dea2ed5ff5", "createdTime": 1715315972546}] | ["sex-and-love", "hiking"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716337477490 | 1715317298465 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
U6HP8gbihppExgENVZpI | australian-election-which-teals-wil | 30 | Australian election: Which teals will be re-elected? | 1748699940000 | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715316219695 | Daniel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the 2022 Australian election, a new group of centrist independents ran against mostly incumbent liberal (centre right) MPs on a platform of more action on climate change. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "conten... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.42707032728144967, "platformFee": 0.42707032728144967, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 175 | Daniel_MC | 1715336088230 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "ce05e1c9c90e", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Kate Chaney (Curtin, WA)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25, "userId": "HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25, "textFts": "'chaney':2 'curtin':3 'kate':1 'wa':4", "contractId": "U6HP8gbihppExgENVZpI", "createdTime": 1715316219695, "probChanges": {"day": 0, ... | 0.25 | 1678868464369 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1715316220301}, {"name": "Australian Politics", "slug": "australian-politics", "groupId": "HSHpR1ie9csCezP7HfFn", "createdTime": 1715316220396}, {"name": "🪸 Climate", "slug": "climate", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2Egd... | ["politics-default", "australian-politics", "climate", "australia"] | 0.25 | 1715336084871 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3243842631935317 | A8jYuE5nVCPoR8avAWy7 | {"NO": 499.8068620406847, "YES": 1696.712113888459} | 0.12390911024871507 | will-manifold-be-acquired-by-polyma-8dd1a5c301f3 | 1440.2803510213125 | Will Manifold be acquired by Polymarket or Kalshi by end of 2025? | 1767329940000 | QEcnUVjKLIOpkEPVQmfgBqtXK222 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.084690944824786 | False | basic | public | 1715316869472 | Spenser Huang | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to yes if >50% ownership of Manifold acquired by Kalshi or Polymarket or any of their subsidiaries before 1/1/2026", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -6.938893903907228e-17, "week": -6.938893903907228e-17, "month": -6.938893903907228e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.906279587285496, "platformFee": 14.906279587285496, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SpenserHuang | 1715699062138 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLzTn-XDcFRRURv0_2jX5_tnkim41ZMjy4tgrHQ1r6Y_3Iz=s96-c | 36 | 0 | 0.25 | 1698686902040 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1715316870036}, {"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1715316870041}, {"name": "💼 Business", "slug": "business", "groupId": "pmK8sn... | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "crypto-speculation", "business", "manifold-business-future", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715699058873 | 1715334877218 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | jffeJzsgsTRAbB1WxzJE | {"NO": 84.34576732676135, "YES": 118.55959483134829} | 0.4156901839835889 | teslas-allow-youtube-or-karaoke-on | 40 | Teslas allow YouTube or karaoke on the main screen while driving by end 2026 | 1735718340000 | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715317861408 | Ernie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Right now this is not supported. If it is allowed on most public roads in a state, for at least one publicly available Tesla model (perhaps requiring full self-driving or other purchase which the public can make) this resolves YES.", "type": "text"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6485575660773618, "platformFee": 0.6485575660773618, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Ernie | 1715458473267 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.25 | 1668384110640 | 0 | [{"name": "Tesla FSD", "slug": "tesla-fsd", "groupId": "db829613-af48-42e8-ab6b-5433ccb0f72c", "createdTime": 1715317862301}, {"name": "Self-Driving Vehicles", "slug": "selfdriving-vehicles", "groupId": "z2q5JCxgaSsIPjKYXpQ5", "createdTime": 1715317862303}, {"name": "Transportation", "slug": "transportation", "groupId"... | ["tesla-fsd", "selfdriving-vehicles", "transportation", "tesla"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715458470025 | 1715356399580 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
xSWZ4wEXnBhSKGuV1ubS | which-of-these-terms-search-terms-w | 5542.477168412381 | Which of these search terms will reach a new 90 day high in the US by the end of May 2024? [Add Options] | 1717269482154 | uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1715320215668 | notarealuser | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bet on which of the specified search terms will reach a new 90-day high in Google search volume in the United States by the end of May 2024. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Search Term: A spe... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 50.123095602709704, "platformFee": 3.668918821868581, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717269482154 | 1000 | notarealuser | 1717269482154 | 0 | 16 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "facd9cb20ef8", "prob": 0.04, "text": "e/acc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15.456367643839878, "userId": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 403.89209613561235, "textFts": "'e/acc':1", "contractId": "xSWZ4wEXnBhSKGuV1ubS", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3", "cre... | 0.25 | 1700298590902 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1715320216504}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1715320216503}, {"name": "Google Trends", "slug": "google-trends", "groupId"... | ["technology-default", "entertainment", "google-trends"] | 0.25 | 1717262601293 | 1717250630869 | 0.02 | uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
x56XOOKh5E6XBWTSCNWK | in-which-census-will-the-california | 97.35073505414222 | In which census will the California population first exceed 40 million? | 2524723140000 | MJSWJeLiUuVJx2I04pm6HvDT7Kv1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715321224186 | Jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.2634192910213495, "platformFee": 0.17342208140905643, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | JimAusman | 1719700818134 | 0 | 3 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "1fa95627d174", "prob": 0.20999999999999996, "text": "2030", "index": 0, "poolNo": 12.889501173681204, "userId": "MJSWJeLiUuVJx2I04pm6HvDT7Kv1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 48.48907584384835, "textFts": "'2030':1", "contractId": "x56XOOKh5E6XBWTSCNWK", "createdTime": 1715321224186, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "w... | 0.25 | 1669143819202 | 0 | [{"name": "🏄 California", "slug": "california", "groupId": "72sPPf5PTwnQQWGdZ5cR", "createdTime": 1715321224570}, {"name": "Demographics", "slug": "demographics", "groupId": "o07IBKsPqPBxuYxDFGqT", "createdTime": 1715321224572}] | ["california", "demographics"] | 0.25 | 1719700815014 | 1719699968521 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | dd6YPahLhhCMkhRkhGXg | {"NO": 10.050378152592117, "YES": 994.9874371066189} | 0 | will-jalen-brunson-drop-40-points-i | 1115.1808407194605 | Will Jalen Brunson drop 40 points in game 3? | 1715698112611 | YFErL3T30SX9ScnmwGBvQNCQYXt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1715322986219 | Matthew Tran | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.934749165509124, "platformFee": 2.934749165509124, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715698112611 | 100 | MatthewTrancef5 | 1715698112611 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 1715103384746 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715697747913 | 1715550832437 | 0.01 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | Rsp4KYr1FRaz10cYYXqQ | {"NO": 10.93760309640785, "YES": 914.277096348849} | 0 | will-josh-hart-play-all-48-minutes | 1043.4651392592816 | Will Josh Hart play all 48 minutes in game 3? | 1715486340000 | YFErL3T30SX9ScnmwGBvQNCQYXt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1715323142165 | Matthew Tran | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.0468014520704143, "platformFee": 3.0468014520704143, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715698103948 | 100 | MatthewTrancef5 | 1715486340000 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1715103384746 | 0 | [{"name": "NBA Playoffs", "slug": "nba-playoffs", "groupId": "8f8bc28b-e3cc-4cb4-885f-6486002430f1", "createdTime": 1715323142386}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1715323142460}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "create... | ["nba-playoffs", "sports-default", "nba", "college-basketball", "basketball"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715475361950 | 1715400711254 | 0.01 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | q5wYbaggMvQLD97xZN68 | {"NO": 99.04290806201925, "YES": 100.96634070698101} | 1 | daily-coinflip-7de88f5169f9 | 4328.279005324214 | Daily coinflip | 1715486340000 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1715324758709 | Traveel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Day 147)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 38.75174171524522, "platformFee": 38.75174171524522, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715489391215 | 100 | Traveel | 1715493656639 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c | 77 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1674441975928 | 0 | [{"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1715324759059}, {"name": "Non-Predictive Profits", "slug": "nonpredictive-profits", "groupId": "sVCyD10FvUk5af10QT6H", "createdTime": 1715324759061}, {"name": "Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac... | ["fairlyrandom", "nonpredictive-profits", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1715475359396 | 1715493655207 | 0.5 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 3EOprVtL8IgzDHN0qYGm | {"NO": 10.050378152592145, "YES": 994.9874371066211} | 0 | trump-vp-pick-by-may-13 | 1120.3537936731059 | Trump VP pick by May 13? | 1715659140000 | frBevxJ79zNClZg2d9H8m0gLLIW2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1715324872198 | Mana | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Donald Trump picks a VP before May 13 midnight Eastern Time, this market will resolve YES. Otherwise, this market will resolve NO.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.6947494860515024, "platformFee": 2.6947494860515024, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715666937371 | 100 | Mana | 1715659140000 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1706696952680 | 0 | [{"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1715324872501}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1715324872511}, {"name": "🐘 Republican Party", "slug": "magaland", "g... | ["donald-trump", "2024-us-presidential-election", "magaland"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715648160382 | 0.01 | frBevxJ79zNClZg2d9H8m0gLLIW2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GwWXSfVfIj4DzDqkprm5 | how-many-consecutive-grand-sumo-tou | 1979.5843582583486 | How many consecutive Grand Sumo Tournaments will feature NO Yokozuna on the banzuke? (After Terunofuji's retirement) | 1798869540000 | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715324985463 | Eliza | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yokozuna Terunofuji is expected by many to retire in the next ~year. Upon his retirement, how many tournaments will happen with NO Yokozuna listed on the banzuke?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 108.11331785539697, "platformFee": 107.68068656805512, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Eliza | 1717015000753 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | 4 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "80370f58e7c6", "prob": 0.00022782882635370466, "text": "0-1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.1687752737207824, "userId": "hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 740.6298164670736, "textFts": "'-1':2 '0':1", "contractId": "GwWXSfVfIj4DzDqkprm5", "createdTime": 1715324985463, "probChanges": {"day":... | 0.25 | 1680816506031 | 0 | [{"name": "Combat Sports", "slug": "combat-sports", "groupId": "QdEuyluaK4ab7uqoY6ZM", "createdTime": 1715324985889}, {"name": "Sumo", "slug": "sumo", "groupId": "Dhj5TOtsLtM1pJnxUra8", "createdTime": 1715324985892}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1715... | ["combat-sports", "sumo", "sports-default"] | 0.25 | 1717014996519 | 1715328010957 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
CrzyiwMCsnUyX2ewntAV | in-the-2024-election-which-contiguo | 188.64678982931707 | In the 2024 election, which contiguous bloc will cast more electoral votes for the Democrats, East or West? | 1737446340000 | xNZQawSuOdWPwqnVlFwQbIMT2x42 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715325680167 | themightysalmon | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Democratic Party voter base is anchored on the coasts. In recent elections, the East Coast has always provided the lion's share of the electoral college votes, but due to changing demographics and voter preferences, the West is catching up, and... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.0606539253722107, "platformFee": 2.0606539253722107, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | themightysalmon | 1715353943939 | 0 | 7 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "1e3f818ef3a9", "prob": 0.7239537707049701, "text": "East Coast", "index": 0, "poolNo": 80.97193391272339, "userId": "xNZQawSuOdWPwqnVlFwQbIMT2x42", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 30.87489552484514, "textFts": "'coast':2 'east':1", "contractId": "CrzyiwMCsnUyX2ewntAV", "createdTime": 1715325680167, "probChanges":... | 0.25 | 1707978226998 | 0 | [{"name": "Electoral College", "slug": "electoral-college", "groupId": "EgzriJ7oOJvX7aO4LKI3", "createdTime": 1715325681046}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1715325681028}, {"name": "🫏 Democratic Party", "slug": ... | ["electoral-college", "2024-us-presidential-election", "democratic-party", "2024-us-election", "geography"] | 0.25 | 1715353940576 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.33604516357897224 | ye4Fed1AURyJBkMhoMb8 | {"NO": 901.8075610794817, "YES": 1204.3340124919382} | 0.2748307904232561 | will-nasaesa-find-microbial-life-on | 508 | Will NASA/ESA find microbial life on Mars before 2050? | 2524690740000 | n7jqFKd9AwXuNU6r6xSALMqsuFu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.6173643887149 | False | basic | public | 1715326750289 | Heu zäme | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a credible Space agency announced that they have proven that Mars once or is currently harbouring microbial life (in this case Bacteria, Virus, prokaryotic, eukaryotic or extremophiles will count) before 2050 yes will win. If not no wins.", "typ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.044231809063938254} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.423424884833125, "platformFee": 2.1997100644868453, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Heuzame | 1718821878059 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIV7awh5HVJM2rydDP3ztaTGc4K7rrtfHrZBDi32YUiwdGUmzSEqA=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 0.25 | 1715194801879 | 0 | [{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1715326750515}] | ["science-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718821874975 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7852478268228602 | gGuTF3C0b0a7QDFeAsU5 | {"NO": 43.27287994031644, "YES": 2301.4190963912415} | 0 | will-the-uks-monthly-gdp-figure-pub-f533bbe7f374 | 2466.8764802364576 | Will the UK's monthly GDP figure published on 12th June show positive growth? | 1718172952930 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.53942818188013 | True | basic | NO | public | 1715327446734 | Simon Grayson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest monthly GDP reading at 7:00 UK time on Wednesday 12th June.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is the month-on-month figure - ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.8101096613138252} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 54.75954899113491, "platformFee": 5.492074623083611, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718172952930 | 1000 | SimonGrayson | 1718172952930 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 0.25 | 1680512856506 | 0 | [{"name": "UK economic data", "slug": "uk-economic-data", "groupId": "47c6155e-4d90-4eb0-abec-d85d0f741002", "createdTime": 1715327447430}, {"name": "🇬🇧 UK", "slug": "uk", "groupId": "m9vlFjXUHNgGgU9OLK1Y", "createdTime": 1715327447424}, {"name": "GDP", "slug": "gdp", "groupId": "iwQCyAKU6dXiXgXR6dw6", "createdTime":... | ["uk-economic-data", "uk", "gdp", "economics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718172785685 | 1718172895516 | 0.06 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | s542diW19LaqSiE6rKR1 | {"NO": 109.67693839261675, "YES": 91.17687042103996} | 0.5460535652294758 | will-growth-in-the-maximum-mw-used | 10 | Will growth in the maximum MW used to train AIs, slow down by more than x2 after GPT-5-like? | 1893542340000 | MkuJhiBwM5aiuAiTMXDz0HUxaUG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715328983346 | Maxime Riché | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The maximum MW (power) used to train SOTA AIs (e.g., Frontier Models)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph",... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.16153080369162434, "platformFee": 0.16153080369162434, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | MaximeRiche | 1715342286319 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6TEuSs1PIS03f7am7s4qPVHI7FNXY19oU-fXxynyg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.25 | 1676641665794 | 0 | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1715328983649}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715328983646}, {"name": "GPT-5 Speculation", "slug": "gpt5-speculation", "groupId": "XjoIQCNrsc4HP3H3... | ["technical-ai-timelines", "ai", "gpt5-speculation", "energy"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715342283028 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | vpR0H3syphT6ZwBXp84i | {"NO": 122.56555362820346, "YES": 81.58899220848389} | 0.6003567205711369 | will-growth-in-the-maximum-mw-used-77e6821f3205 | 50 | Will growth in the maximum MW used to train AIs, slow down by more than x2 after GPT-6-like? | 2209075140000 | MkuJhiBwM5aiuAiTMXDz0HUxaUG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715329151515 | Maxime Riché | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The maximum MW (power) used to train SOTA AIs (e.g., Frontier Models)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph",... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7776162915058255, "platformFee": 0.7776162915058255, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | MaximeRiche | 1715356275642 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6TEuSs1PIS03f7am7s4qPVHI7FNXY19oU-fXxynyg=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 1676641665794 | 0 | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1715329151812}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715329151808}, {"name": "GPT-5 Speculation", "slug": "gpt5-speculation", "groupId": "XjoIQCNrsc4HP3H3... | ["technical-ai-timelines", "ai", "gpt5-speculation", "energy"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715356272351 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.046395686210537565 | gMleaYVWy7rgpm9mGxf0 | {"NO": 917.396531663398, "YES": 1474.8272238103518} | 0.02937493050997552 | will-sbf-pardon-biden | 1430.0470912017201 | Will SBF pardon Biden? | 1735718340000 | H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1715330140025 | Andrew G | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 3.122502256758253e-17, "week": 3.122502256758253e-17, "month": 3.122502256758253e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.4683505450160395, "platformFee": 4.4683505450160395, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AndrewG | 1715938954464 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c | 20 | 0 | 0.25 | 1654655993992 | 0 | [{"name": "Sam Bankman-Fried Trial (1st)", "slug": "sbf-trial", "groupId": "4fb66c1a-82d9-4346-8a4d-668980166ef9", "createdTime": 1715330140332}, {"name": "SBF", "slug": "sbf", "groupId": "svyYtbhviU1lv8aMS9E1", "createdTime": 1715330140330}, {"name": "FTX", "slug": "ftx", "groupId": "0YV8Cv4WhFWcbUrk4hHV", "createdTim... | ["sbf-trial", "sbf", "ftx", "donald-trump"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715938951109 | 1715417634910 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.536555306841342 | 5fVow1bupHbuxSnztX18 | {"NO": 316.862921205181, "YES": 2696.97563751421} | 0.11973579973548193 | will-elden-ring-shadow-of-the-erdtr-f83f1be6f82c | 5276.537900771234 | Will Elden Ring Shadow of the Erdtree have a similar all-time peak Players of 953k Players on Steam? | 1722549540000 | qPUY04kdCNdRz0TP5HdU4jstGrD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.773446596132505 | False | basic | public | 1715334214066 | copyrofire | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "According to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://Steamdb.info/app/1245620/charts", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://Steamdb.info/app/1245620/charts", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-p... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.00428419465090675, "month": -0.4208677930529608} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 92.87248954193888, "platformFee": 3.5081157196657484, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | copyrofire | 1720069524701 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK3UGjkc3m3Ei72PA-9wpYbAZur-t2ihardjpOCYiuildv0ghM=s96-c | 29 | 1 | 0.25 | 1714691341673 | 0 | [{"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1715334214366}] | ["gaming"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720069521430 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
R8fN6WSrHWArPrrldIxT | do-you-use-anki-daily | 0 | Do you use Anki daily? | 0wZ0MmJzG9RL7OnjbqYydNeZXjv1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1715334267110 | colorednoise | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I feel like I've discovered Anki rather late (when compared to other early adopters), a Manifold poll seems like an effective way to check this.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | colorednoise | 1715393475166 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.25 | 1645190392139 | 0 | [{"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1715334267445}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1715334267451}, {"name": "Education", "slug": "education", "groupId": "4db0060d-c187-4c1e-9d89-da6482... | ["personal-goals", "world-default", "education", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 1715385516832 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2If3uwTIrwYEvj5UOgew | which-member-of-the-gorosei-will-ge | 249.06523257064134 | Which member of the Gorosei will get the least exposure in chapter 1115? | 1716242340000 | PpbF5NuIgBV8q8MC8ktfY8cRDef1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1715335780090 | Fast YES/NO One Piece | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "⚠️Exposure is measured in panels. Shadowy silhouette does not count. Cover does not count. Flashback does count. Low-detailed from afar does count. Wanted poster does count. Chibi head does count. Transition panels (one picture divided in 2 or more... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.8911787980701549, "platformFee": 1.8911787980701549, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716475522282 | 150 | FYNOP | 1716242340000 | 0 | 5 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "5535e61eaa38", "prob": 0.25, "text": "Saturn", "index": 0, "poolNo": 14.43375672974065, "userId": "PpbF5NuIgBV8q8MC8ktfY8cRDef1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 43.30127018922193, "textFts": "'saturn':1", "contractId": "2If3uwTIrwYEvj5UOgew", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "PpbF5NuIgBV8q8MC8ktfY8cRDef1", "cre... | 1 | 0.25 | 1707774054436 | 0 | 0.25 | 1715708518575 | 0.5 | PpbF5NuIgBV8q8MC8ktfY8cRDef1 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7216712503921333 | JbBWGMNmTuRpR9TfszCO | {"NO": 796.144491826596, "YES": 1074.6156936677048} | 0 | will-there-be-a-flashback-in-chapte-69e40398b5ac | 240.3356213078217 | Will there be a flashback in chapter 1115? | 1716242340000 | PpbF5NuIgBV8q8MC8ktfY8cRDef1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.553071656737021 | True | basic | NO | public | 1715336221125 | Fast YES/NO One Piece | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "⚠️Can concern a single panel or page. Background paper MUST be black or grey to resolve in YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🔒Question will close the Monday before the spoilers come out, with resolving happening... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.4987515627702996, "platformFee": 3.4987515627702996, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716468508919 | 1000 | FYNOP | 1716242340000 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1707774054436 | 0 | [{"name": "🏴☠️ One Piece", "slug": "one-piece-stocks", "groupId": "uJSql24HUqpEpVU0FrjI", "createdTime": 1715336221492}] | ["one-piece-stocks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716216720282 | 0.66 | PpbF5NuIgBV8q8MC8ktfY8cRDef1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.20927350625738622 | ycxOxhtVaiYnkYC5jwVk | {"NO": 947.521820024258, "YES": 1110.429650945511} | 0 | will-yamato-be-alone-on-chapter-111-2e5c87cde4b6 | 1288.794558696478 | Will Yamato be alone on chapter 1115's cover story? | 1716242340000 | PpbF5NuIgBV8q8MC8ktfY8cRDef1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.690648144238953 | True | basic | NO | public | 1715337625544 | Fast YES/NO One Piece | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "⚠️Yamato must be present and alone. Silhouettes from afar will resolve the question in NO. Animals don't count. Zoan users in animal form do count.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🔒Question will close the Monday be... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.730970524492387, "platformFee": 14.730970524492387, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716468386672 | 1000 | FYNOP | 1716242340000 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1707774054436 | 0 | [{"name": "🏴☠️ One Piece", "slug": "one-piece-stocks", "groupId": "uJSql24HUqpEpVU0FrjI", "createdTime": 1715337625913}] | ["one-piece-stocks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716208952301 | 1715357453630 | 0.18 | PpbF5NuIgBV8q8MC8ktfY8cRDef1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000001 | fO8SIPOrSTzaUW3W9gca | {"NO": 119.3827408116938, "YES": 83.7642018604123} | 0.587666933311353 | am-i-still-going-to-be-a-creep-by-t | 20 | Am I still going to be a creep by the end of the year? | 1735718340000 | RrfEUHREqkOGJEX7INNt068LFN72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715357368632 | Elaine Gu | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm very weird", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3086295941531022, "platformFee": 0.3086295941531022, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | ElaineGu | 1716163446537 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKh8GCPPlQAyrz8HloLlq_AGqsZooqXcRrxslEdaVpOGMSw6abi=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.25 | 1715192850876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716163443084 | 1715380962733 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | qT34vQdxgonyVh5UDOvb | {"NO": 327.9906701014321, "YES": 30.488672122617036} | 1 | will-ieatboys-marry-me | 516.8200319772366 | Will @ieatboys marry me? | 1715429315661 | petoMIbaMqdGwl3agbOXjlZVMJs1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1715359885979 | Dylan Slagh | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Proposing. wish me luck! YES = she says yes NO = she says no", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.541298475030999, "platformFee": 4.541298475030999, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715429315661 | 100 | DylanSlagh | 1715452478114 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 0.25 | 1645152112486 | 0 | [{"name": "Bet on Love", "slug": "bet-on-love", "groupId": "a70117bb-5f27-4244-9823-3cc6a34ad223", "createdTime": 1715450437592}] | ["bet-on-love"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715404101444 | 1715452476793 | 0.91 | petoMIbaMqdGwl3agbOXjlZVMJs1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000003 | vy0SasUR1yxQwUmc9NaX | {"NO": 17.586311452817583, "YES": 568.6240703076954} | 0 | will-the-live-show-of-clue-im-seein | 984.6202983052525 | Will the live show of Clue I'm seeing twice have a different ending on the two nights? | 1715479004803 | GB5hZnKVXCdbNXRJbJT1WFH6nQ02 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1715361258501 | bh | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I haven't looked up if this is even a thing that is done, but I could imagine it being a thing for this show in particular. I'm only counting actual substantive intentional differences, like a different killer, not the vagaries of live performance.... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.8026312481356026, "platformFee": 3.8026312481356026, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715479004803 | 100 | hamiltonianurst | 1717422588568 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.25 | 1669137065045 | 0 | [{"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1717422588568}] | ["nonpredictive"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | 1715478992065 | 1715479289179 | 0.03 | GB5hZnKVXCdbNXRJbJT1WFH6nQ02 | 0 |
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