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2j3M2mO410AorCweS5Vd | which-days-will-jimmy-carter-be-ali-d7d632de70ae | 3248.956133409012 | Which days will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of? (Dec 2-Mar 11) | 1733291940000 | ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715723383628 | Jimmy Carter Death Markets | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jimmy ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Markets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=jimmy-carter", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 56.050174912718504, "platformFee": 24.65428311701524, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2500 | JCDM | 1720019086021 | 0 | 28 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "02ad0fc3cce5", "prob": 0.38000000000000006, "text": "December 2", "index": 0, "poolNo": 19.572034031470338, "userId": "ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 31.933318682925282, "textFts": "'2':2 'decemb':1", "contractId": "2j3M2mO410AorCweS5Vd", "createdTime": 1715723383628, "probChanges"... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1703455433441 | 0 | [{"name": "Longevity", "slug": "longevity", "groupId": "b8Ygbdfv5q2sQsZQGmkl", "createdTime": 1715723384637}, {"name": "Jimmy Carter", "slug": "jimmy-carter", "groupId": "rigfelwTsUUySMFFJz5O", "createdTime": 1715723384643}, {"name": "🧑🎤 Celebrities", "slug": "celebrities", "groupId": "4QIcUOfCSSha0JZHAg9X", "create... | ["longevity", "jimmy-carter", "celebrities", "entertainment", "culture-default"] | 0.25 | 1720019082885 | 1715753637685 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7700110863762862 | qGHg5eEECmMO44KYbAeP | {"NO": 23741.765557726, "YES": 379.5234606461246} | 1 | will-jimmy-carter-exist-at-the-end-7094561c61a8 | 44452.062037101925 | Will Jimmy Carter exist at the end of June 2024? | 1719885835887 | ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | YES | public | 1715723487253 | Jimmy Carter Death Markets | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"Yes\" if we have reason to believe Jimmy Carter was alive and existing at 11:59 ET on June 30, 2024", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"No\" if any of the followings things c... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.009999999999999898, "month": 0.15000000000000224} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 295.84044968941834, "platformFee": 12.831640256190454, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719885835887 | 1000 | JCDM | 1719885835887 | 0 | 47 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1703455433441 | 0 | [{"name": "Public Figures", "slug": "public-figures", "groupId": "sIbESq9CYGTy9yeah6Tg", "createdTime": 1715723487609}, {"name": "Longevity", "slug": "longevity", "groupId": "b8Ygbdfv5q2sQsZQGmkl", "createdTime": 1715723487612}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURS... | ["public-figures", "longevity", "entertainment", "us-presidents", "jimmy-carter"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719850910004 | 1719848761870 | 1 | ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.693363498945736 | Tiu2Ul6Lso8r3IdcT5pN | {"NO": 4579.046709013682, "YES": 503.91998051388475} | 0.9535900509388804 | will-jimmy-carter-exist-at-the-end-3ce6858d57e0 | 20346.812237334976 | Will Jimmy Carter exist at the end of July 2024? | 1722574740000 | ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.98491008243607 | False | basic | public | 1715723535589 | Jimmy Carter Death Markets | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"Yes\" if we have reason to believe Jimmy Carter was alive and existing at 11:59 ET on July 31, 2024", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"No\" if any of the followings things c... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.03285178342663564, "month": 0.3348886887593233} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 323.42350842556954, "platformFee": 7.1913495640278615, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JCDM | 1720108771314 | 0 | 58 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1703455433441 | 0 | [{"name": "Longevity", "slug": "longevity", "groupId": "b8Ygbdfv5q2sQsZQGmkl", "createdTime": 1715723535895}, {"name": "Public Figures", "slug": "public-figures", "groupId": "sIbESq9CYGTy9yeah6Tg", "createdTime": 1715723535896}, {"name": "US presidents", "slug": "us-presidents", "groupId": "eb2744b9-ba7d-44bf-85f7-3e91... | ["longevity", "public-figures", "us-presidents", "jimmy-carter", "entertainment"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720108768138 | 1718574317894 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999985 | P5MNqCVjjnJtBevTDKb4 | {"NO": 777.816700827154, "YES": 12.856499467503905} | 1 | will-jimmy-carter-be-alive-at-the-e-1adc19bd6b10 | 2845.945698633666 | Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on May 15? | 1715835540000 | ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1715723662849 | Jimmy Carter Death Markets | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if Jimmy is alive at 11:59 PM EST on May 14 2024", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves No if Jimmy isn't alive at 11:59 PM EST on May 14 2024", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "ifr... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.9662096394474835, "platformFee": 5.9662096394474835, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715908133877 | 100 | JCDM | 1715835540000 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1703455433441 | 0 | [{"name": "Jimmy Carter Daily", "slug": "jimmy-carter-daily", "groupId": "19215cc1-e005-4008-80ba-e4df0c64d06f", "createdTime": 1715723663140}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1715723663150}, {"name": "Jimmy Carter", "slug": "jimmy-... | ["jimmy-carter-daily", "entertainment", "jimmy-carter", "public-figures", "longevity"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715833507476 | 0.98 | ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.22197374962926855 | 712IEnGTILsNEFaAvj0E | {"NO": 949.590662709106, "YES": 1101.6508643705556} | 0.19738242831720454 | will-andrew-tates-death-involve-a-c | 593.5746933696556 | Will Andrew Tate's death involve a car? | 1735711140000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.632220824172183 | False | basic | public | 1715724717466 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-16, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-16, "month": -1.3877787807814457e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.097650823286716, "platformFee": 7.097650823286716, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | KeenenW | 1716014452000 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "andrew tate", "slug": "andrew-tate", "groupId": "3a0f34a6-79e7-4c87-926f-c10d6f4f9528", "createdTime": 1715724717979}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1715724717986}, {"name": "🪦 Death markets", "slug": "death-markets", "groupId": "ibrUJxhF... | ["andrew-tate", "culture-default", "death-markets", "celebrities", "entertainment"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716014448718 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | gzVH6I3y3GVUh36YqmbS | {"NO": 83.7642018604123, "YES": 119.3827408116938} | 0.4123330666886471 | will-china-invade-taiwan-during-reg | 20 | Will China invade Taiwan during the regular season of baseball? | 1735711140000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715725291638 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if China invades Taiwan and it's during the regular season of baseball for any Pro teams.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves No if:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3086295941531022, "platformFee": 0.3086295941531022, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | KeenenW | 1715772703290 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1715725292299}, {"name": "🇹🇼 Taiwan", "slug": "taiwan", "groupId": "yVxGLCRxMXptN7l4Bw9p", "createdTime": 1715725292297}, {"name": "⚾ Baseball", "slug": "baseball", "groupId": "786nRQzgVyUnuUtaLTGW", "createdTime": 17... | ["culture-default", "taiwan", "baseball", "china-taiwan-potential-conflict", "wars"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715772700032 | 1715746450491 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999944 | Ur28xl0BpcVy1DLGWf0Y | {"NO": 299.9999999999947, "YES": 33.33333333333394} | 1 | will-i-do-20h-or-less-of-my-project | 326.08037240649037 | Will I do 20h or less of my project this week | 1716238740000 | LJcW2PB0dGTeAVWKUeio4taveKo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1715727753517 | Anton Bogun | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My project is called GraphSheets, which is like TreeSheets but also with graphs and infinite zoom", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.2517224783564442, "platformFee": 2.2517224783564442, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716257917314 | 100 | AntonBogun | 1716238740000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKIkgJ3gNoBVdiNHmHyZFKPprQaeQNvCqsiX9H0ZjpajZo=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700603913722 | 0 | [{"name": "Commitment Devices", "slug": "commitment-devices", "groupId": "ISVja50LAxuGN0QqycWz", "createdTime": 1715727753829}, {"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1715727753823}] | ["commitment-devices", "personal-goals"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716237711677 | 1716257913519 | 0.9 | LJcW2PB0dGTeAVWKUeio4taveKo1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
bfwqnqXq4B7xQWFxASjW | lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-84 | 0 | [Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 84) | 1715810340000 | v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1715728064367 | komplexkonjugat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let's play Civ6!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Anyone can add instructions. Instructions can be composite, but are executed atomically (either fully or not at all). Upon mark... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715854127215 | 125 | komplexkonjugat | 1715854920638 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0963e1d2b39e", "prob": 0.88, "text": "Execute all instructions in @MattCWilson's comment on this answer.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25, "userId": "rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25, "textFts": "'answer':10 'comment':7 'execut':1 'instruct':3 'mattcwilson':5", "contractId": "bfwqnqXq4B... | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698548141721 | 0 | [{"name": "ManifoldPlaysCiv6", "slug": "manifoldplaysciv6", "groupId": "5fb3f729-faaa-425d-9c1b-c04c78abe1b4", "createdTime": 1715728064779}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1715728064796}] | ["manifoldplaysciv6", "gaming"] | 0.25 | 1715854918005 | 0.88 | v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
sGdo688UFwb8H9rL7HIL | will-home-team-win-may-16-2024-matc | 5643.316616183386 | Will home team win? (May 16, 2024 matches) ⚽🏟️ | 1715900659972 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1715728131607 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Will home team win? (May 16, 2024 matches)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market includes the main football matches taking place on Thursday, May 16, 2024. The matches featured in this m... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.82535776794222, "platformFee": 18.82535776794222, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715900659972 | 375 | FranklinBaldo | 1715900663886 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 10 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "43a861ce71f0", "prob": 0.01, "text": "17:30 - Las Palmas vs Real Betis - La Liga 🇪🇸", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.030242641085238, "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 906.5983700804757, "textFts": "'17':1 '30':2 'beti':7 'la':8 'las':3 'liga':9 'palma':4 'real':6 'vs':5", "con... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1659579722296 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1715728131968}] | ["soccer"] | 0.25 | 1715893178434 | 1715900662063 | 0.01 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | False | alphabetical | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
KwYhFbATeKUhfRyPLPnV | what-will-be-true-of-ilya-sutskever | 0 | What will be true of Ilya Sutskever's 'next project'? (add answers) | 1715728695374 | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1715728616464 | Semiotic Rivalry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715728695374 | 100 | SemioticRivalry | 1715728695374 | 0 | 0 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "c1d240f11163", "prob": 0.5, "text": "It will be in AI", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25, "textFts": "'ai':5", "contractId": "KwYhFbATeKUhfRyPLPnV", "resolution": "CANCEL", "resolverId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "createdTime": 1715728616... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1669063432873 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1715728616915}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715728616918}, {"name": "Ilya Sutskever", "slug": "ilya-sutskever", "groupId": "9fc75c0d-b6b9-45c7-996c-24de45684ca5", "createdTim... | ["openai", "ai", "ilya-sutskever", "ai-safety"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.09291540726931262 | 4UeYr3Ai7UzlRlGiDrX9 | {"NO": 909.278618427582, "YES": 1533.7109804813354} | 0.05725179538799649 | will-eliezer-yudkowsky-work-for-ope | 1527.6436623625525 | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky work for OpenAI OR Humane in any role before the end of 2025? | 1767243540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.317779109359094 | False | basic | public | 1715751076517 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if he accepts a role with either company by the end of the market", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Role can be", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.557175573445725, "platformFee": 4.557175573445725, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1716392787224 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715751078336}, {"name": "🤖❤️ AI Alignment", "slug": "ai-alignment", "groupId": "p8Tmu38lHhN1JQavwAmR", "createdTime": 1715751078340}, {"name": "Eliezer Yudkowsky", "slug": "eliezer-yudkowsky-25acf68e45f1", "groupId": "sst5e4ixb4uQyzkkQ... | ["ai", "ai-alignment", "eliezer-yudkowsky-25acf68e45f1", "openai", "ai-safety"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716392783600 | 1716392137069 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | auuxitoZFJ0jBWvX92PC | {"NO": 129.11058625821062, "YES": 77.45298267022676} | 0.6250404508790228 | is-cannabinoid-hyperemesis-syndrome-85942708635f | 30 | Is Cannabinoid Hyperemesis Syndrome (CHS) caused by an accumulation of anything in the body? | 1767247140000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715751703473 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Things that could resolve this Yes", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Cannabinoids binding to receptors and not being released", "type": "text"}]}]}, ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4447068708946913, "platformFee": 0.4447068708946913, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | KeenenW | 1715991662354 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "Cannabinoid Hyperemesis Syndrome", "slug": "cannabinoid-hyperemesis-syndrome", "groupId": "fadd4705-86ab-4a3e-a0bb-a8a341bd24cd", "createdTime": 1715751703858}, {"name": "Cannabis", "slug": "cannabis", "groupId": "4d7535ea-5cd1-45fa-bc6c-8ad82bc06c74", "createdTime": 1715751703882}, {"name": "⚕️ Medicine", "... | ["cannabinoid-hyperemesis-syndrome", "cannabis", "medicine", "science-default", "research"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715991659071 | 1715965663264 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | rcwyTfRkZemfCNPMMohR | {"NO": 73.39406627096885, "YES": 136.25079666631743} | 0.3500875969134724 | will-there-be-a-new-world-record-sc | 60 | Will there be a new world record score in tournament Scrabble by 2030? | 1925074740000 | vcRnogNTojb2z8RejfxaYDwYs6B3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715752245226 | A. Dings | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The highest individual score in a tournament game of English-language Scrabble has been 850 since 2012 (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://wespa.org/aardvark/html/alltime_stats.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9133566780101899, "platformFee": 0.9133566780101899, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | ADings | 1715768724079 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKyQmiXuUz7vNTKFEGxzvoGhgYnrN03vcCFlsSwpc7SDg=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709564544314 | 0 | [{"name": "Records", "slug": "records", "groupId": "OemZlrwlEfEyzZOOFkGL", "createdTime": 1715752246015}, {"name": "World records", "slug": "world-records", "groupId": "21ca0aab-a0ee-4952-b403-43ced38b62c2", "createdTime": 1715752246075}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi... | ["records", "world-records", "sports-default", "scrabble", "board-games"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715768720609 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | MVoZRTwXFLb8Vw2nvmQ4 | {"NO": 101.4081900840671, "YES": 98.61136454274596} | 0.506991380284141 | will-the-friend-wearable-ai-device | 73 | Will the Friend wearable AI device start shipping to consumers before the end of November? | 1733029140000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715752509148 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.friend.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.friend.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-40... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2316516726537776, "platformFee": 1.2316516726537776, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1715869687367 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Consumer Electronics", "slug": "consumer-electronics", "groupId": "N1T9XPJPyxsQEfVKCixw", "createdTime": 1715752509446}, {"name": "Startups", "slug": "startups", "groupId": "19c319ca-033c-474f-b417-5f07efe88ec0", "createdTime": 1715752509448}, {"name": "🌐 Internet", "slug": "internet", "groupId": "raDuDKuBO... | ["consumer-electronics", "startups", "internet", "technology-default", "ai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715869683962 | 1715761785813 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 8zs9RIfbOLsuiXfGF8f0 | {"NO": 72.967001409911, "YES": 137.0482520423502} | 0.34743667524367333 | will-marques-brownlee-mkbhd-release-8cc1d36427ff | 140 | Will Marques Brownlee (MKBHD) release a review of the Friend AI wearable device before the end of August 2024? | 1725163140000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715752579554 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Link: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/@mkbhd/videos", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/@mkbhd/videos", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.976073609360216, "platformFee": 1.976073609360216, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1715812369634 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715752579863}, {"name": "Entertainment", "slug": "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "groupId": "YjinY1aCMoxH9UyfXCrv", "createdTime": 1715752579861}, {"name": "Hardware", "slug": "hardware", "groupId": "a96781da-0298-4522-806a-970dfaacc659",... | ["ai", "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "hardware", "youtube", "startups"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715812366246 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | XsQGaGrIOI4AR3sHM57O | {"NO": 92.61230811697497, "YES": 107.97700870784251} | 0.4617010994551466 | will-a-tea-cream-or-paste-be-develo | 84 | Will a tea, cream or paste be developed or recommended for Cannabinoid Hyperemesis Syndrome (CHS) symptoms by 2029? | 1830319140000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715752810280 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If hot tea or pepper paste that's not specifically intended to help with CHS is recommended by doctors before 2028 this will still resolve Yes", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market closes at ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3601768074820246, "platformFee": 1.3601768074820246, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | KeenenW | 1715868490914 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "⚕️ Medicine", "slug": "medicine", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1715752810898}, {"name": "Cannabis", "slug": "cannabis", "groupId": "4d7535ea-5cd1-45fa-bc6c-8ad82bc06c74", "createdTime": 1715752810896}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "... | ["medicine", "cannabis", "science-default", "technology-default", "cannabinoid-hyperemesis-syndrome"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715868487630 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000007 | 3wRmZN5B5UypDistmDUA | {"NO": 141.25503114072035, "YES": 70.79393858925894} | 0.6661434446986138 | will-jimmy-carter-exist-at-the-end-b49b95ee21dd | 1561.4844202242737 | Will Jimmy Carter exist at the end of August 2024? | 1725253140000 | ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715753689901 | Jimmy Carter Death Markets | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"Yes\" if we have reason to believe Jimmy Carter was alive and existing at 11:59 ET on August 31, 2024", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"No\" if any of the followings things... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.05001363333765396, "month": 0.02564948996104377} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 34.728092462456566, "platformFee": 1.8222435546095594, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | JCDM | 1720052041926 | 0 | 25 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1703455433441 | 0 | [{"name": "Jimmy Carter", "slug": "jimmy-carter", "groupId": "rigfelwTsUUySMFFJz5O", "createdTime": 1715753690254}, {"name": "US presidents", "slug": "us-presidents", "groupId": "eb2744b9-ba7d-44bf-85f7-3e9149765adf", "createdTime": 1715753690256}, {"name": "Public Figures", "slug": "public-figures", "groupId": "sIbESq... | ["jimmy-carter", "us-presidents", "public-figures", "longevity", "entertainment"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720052038701 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | bFyuR4X8LkRdFGlJia6l | {"NO": 83.76501977404413, "YES": 119.38157511303605} | 0.41233779882259525 | will-any-major-cannabis-grows-annou | 0 | Will any major cannabis grows announce they are shutting down from Hop Latent Viroid (HpLVd) before end of 2025? | 1735711140000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715754432657 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Shut down can be temp to clear things up or permanent.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Markets closes at the end of 2024", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "cont... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | KeenenW | 1715868632673 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "Hop Latent Viroid (HpLVd)", "slug": "hop-latent-viroid-hplvd", "groupId": "b757b064-9fda-4479-bfd8-c9aa1b4759c2", "createdTime": 1715754432970}, {"name": "Agriculture", "slug": "agriculture", "groupId": "426fd6a6-3b74-42d4-ace4-db418fcfe0fb", "createdTime": 1715754432972}, {"name": "Cannabis", "slug": "canna... | ["hop-latent-viroid-hplvd", "agriculture", "cannabis", "business", "infectious-disease"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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kzPJrs541nZZ0Ksy1xoZ | who-will-win-the-next-round-of-nba | 320.5192608916458 | Who will win the next round of NBA broadcasting rights from the 2025-26 season forward? | 1748847540000 | NbYoahAnnWdSZMmM6ALkOeeXFLD2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715759384512 | Adam Grushan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.300098130332323, "platformFee": 3.300098130332323, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 211 | adamgrushan | 1717861534100 | 0 | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "eb1524bbd458", "prob": 0.8716733438074937, "text": "ESPN", "index": 0, "poolNo": 96.54434187592994, "userId": "NbYoahAnnWdSZMmM6ALkOeeXFLD2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14.213136899572746, "textFts": "'espn':1", "contractId": "kzPJrs541nZZ0Ksy1xoZ", "createdTime": 1715759384513, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "we... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1703487455803 | 0 | [{"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1715759384941}, {"name": "NBA Playoffs", "slug": "nba-playoffs", "groupId": "8f8bc28b-e3cc-4cb4-885f-6486002430f1", "createdTime": 1715759384943}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "created... | ["basketball", "nba-playoffs", "nba"] | 0.25 | 1716399659077 | 1717861533038 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | SoO28hfo5l5i5iAZGxWy | {"NO": 97.09893704578269, "YES": 119.8228512164965} | 0.11654386140156196 | will-announcing-dialogues-make-the | 20 | Will "Announcing Dialogues" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715761250247 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -1.3877787807814457e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.08857439175174707, "platformFee": 0.08857439175174707, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | LessWrong | 1716098630750 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1715761250922}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1716098626975 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | f8t3MNzthvslD6jWArXQ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | placeholder-market-2-1d935f5a7d19 | 0 | Placeholder market 2 | 4070930340000 | HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715763883019 | Odoacre | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Manifold changes the market creation cost, then I will change the title and description to something of my choosing", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Else, this market resolves to whatever I ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Odoacre | 1715763883019 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOdoacre%2Fe8tDh301jg.avatar2?alt=media&token=79f05389-576e-437b-9be9-bda60b4cd21a | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1660254401272 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | HZuVW1bYvLORysM04Q4m | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | market-placeholder-1 | 0 | Market placeholder 1 don't bet | 157765355940000 | WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715763892204 | Mich | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't bet here. If you bet this down to 1% and I ask \"will the sun rise tomorrow ?\", that's gonna be your problem.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Mich | 1715763923360 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702591853953 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | wLaew63g5CGkzqbnM4nd | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | market-placeholder-2-dont-bet | 0 | Market placeholder 2 don't bet | 157765355940000 | WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715763939584 | Mich | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't bet here. If you bet this down to 1% and I ask \"will the sun rise tomorrow ?\", that's gonna be your problem.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Mich | 1715763939584 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702591853953 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | vvfglZZrifkRvUAXw9DT | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | placeholder-market-3-5f4f71f1961a | 0 | Placeholder market 3 | 4070930340000 | HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715763948969 | Odoacre | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Manifold changes the market creation cost, then I will change the title and description to something of my choosing", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Else, this market resolves to whatever I ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Odoacre | 1715763948969 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOdoacre%2Fe8tDh301jg.avatar2?alt=media&token=79f05389-576e-437b-9be9-bda60b4cd21a | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1660254401272 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | WvBj6eqgOTN87KRk7jjV | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | market-placeholder-3-dont-bet | 0 | Market placeholder 3 don't bet | 157765355940000 | WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715763950343 | Mich | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't bet here. If you bet this down to 1% and I ask \"will the sun rise tomorrow ?\", that's gonna be your problem.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Mich | 1715763950343 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702591853953 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 |
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