CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

0.5

kHEcPTpNUOoV3Zf3POnZ

{"NO": 103.52456673314856, "YES": 96.59542962180788}

0.5173124556205027

by-eoy-2024-will-any-boeing-whistle

90

By EOY 2024, will any Boeing whistleblower publicly state they are concerned for their life ?

1735858740000

WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715602976178

Mich

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if, by Dec 1st 2024, 24:00 London time, at least one Boeing whistleblower makes a public statement which can reasonably be interpreted as \"I'm afraid I may get killed because I'm doing this\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type":...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.5032514018750514, "platformFee": 1.5032514018750514, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

Mich

1715633751394

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c

6

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…4d00952eef1b.jpg

1702591853953

0

[{"name": "Whistleblower Markets", "slug": "scandal-markets", "groupId": "qHo4qLNyY6bkcoS7hZe0", "createdTime": 1715602976510}, {"name": "Crime", "slug": "crime", "groupId": "j7TkLdIOLyiTtiQQKjl9", "createdTime": 1715602976511}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "creat...

["scandal-markets", "crime", "culture-default", "boeing", "law-order"]

0.25

0.5

1715633747940

0

0.5000000000000001

S8RtIujz8FlyyS3hQ9FI

{"NO": 58.80980682940964, "YES": 170.03966751679908}

0.2569803011233525

will-any-study-show-that-fecal-tran

153

Will any study show that fecal transplants improve Long COVID symptoms by the end of 2024?

1735685940000

RkgxY86BkXapNguatNnE45ZaxQG3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715603850530

chris kux

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will any scientific studies will demonstrate that fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) can improve symptoms associated with Long COVID by the end of 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will be resol...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.89584314154354, "platformFee": 1.89584314154354, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

chrislkj

1715641489778

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fchrislkj%2FydIrfIlRbj.39?alt=media&token=de0d9748-f0ec-4844-a8e6-a316b74867c4

7

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…8db77c93df14.jpg

1644826942059

0

[{"name": "⚕️ Medicine", "slug": "medicine", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1715603850864}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1715603850862}, {"name": "🫀 Health", "slug": "health", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 171...

["medicine", "science-default", "health"]

0.25

0.5

1715641486504

0

uy11h5oVWUYE91QjqOne

who-will-win-germanys-first-em-matc

897.9137469620263

Who will win Germany's first EM match?

1718402340000

yLLIO4gkKVgy4lhXz1v5wbhzuWl2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

MKT

public

1715604045542

Leon Alex Bamesreiter

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 5.2778345151409845, "platformFee": 1.093338770683256, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1718939189038

100

LeonAlexBamesreiter

1718402340000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ0F92XH7MMA1N_TkIFaxTnw-8uoLPJyiDmy3bEoRw2rLnNcQ=s96-c

14

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "56001ae6b7e3", "prob": 0.99, "text": "Germany", "index": 0, "poolNo": 410.9747768411668, "userId": "yLLIO4gkKVgy4lhXz1v5wbhzuWl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.083098381889762, "textFts": "'germani':1", "contractId": "uy11h5oVWUYE91QjqOne", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…57c2f79468d1.jpg

1713352230106

0

[{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1715604046369}]

["soccer"]

0.25

1718397047393

1718935096171

0.01

hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2

False

0

3cgBtLUsQDQB6MP4YS1W

who-will-win-germanys-second-em-mat

130.22850950244487

Who will win Germany's second EM match?

1718834340000

yLLIO4gkKVgy4lhXz1v5wbhzuWl2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715604086669

Leon Alex Bamesreiter

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 2.292951883170698, "platformFee": 0.7614455970678261, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

LeonAlexBamesreiter

1718812799002

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ0F92XH7MMA1N_TkIFaxTnw-8uoLPJyiDmy3bEoRw2rLnNcQ=s96-c

6

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "29cbf4be72f1", "prob": 0.7750267164617849, "text": "Germany", "index": 0, "poolNo": 92.80318205338156, "userId": "yLLIO4gkKVgy4lhXz1v5wbhzuWl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 26.938731460328267, "textFts": "'germani':1", "contractId": "3cgBtLUsQDQB6MP4YS1W", "createdTime": 1715604086669, "probChanges": {"day": ...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…e67cba2c232e.jpg

1713352230106

0

[{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1715604088672}]

["soccer"]

0.25

1718812795931

False

0

hhlXVZ5B9NloVtfgAnhQ

who-will-win-germanys-third-em-matc

835.9313967279988

Who will win Germany's third EM match?

1719179940000

yLLIO4gkKVgy4lhXz1v5wbhzuWl2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715604129949

Leon Alex Bamesreiter

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 12.845721733746057, "platformFee": 0.8454057078929138, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

LeonAlexBamesreiter

1719225158224

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ0F92XH7MMA1N_TkIFaxTnw-8uoLPJyiDmy3bEoRw2rLnNcQ=s96-c

11

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "6575139ac7e7", "prob": 0.022950122480947625, "text": "Germany", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.663093787205241, "userId": "yLLIO4gkKVgy4lhXz1v5wbhzuWl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 326.23899294748946, "textFts": "'germani':1", "contractId": "hhlXVZ5B9NloVtfgAnhQ", "createdTime": 1715604129949, "probChanges": {"day"...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…18c8a0ab1317.jpg

1713352230106

0

[{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1715604130541}]

["soccer"]

0.25

1719178246727

1719225154391

False

0

0.5

TtSpFSRyOkbe9relKsKq

{"NO": 11.003863977996218, "YES": 908.7716842007871}

0

20240612-will-amd-close-above-182

892.2108481119622

2024-06-12: Will AMD close above $182?

1718251140000

TRwXJ75GQkfZ8ijFF46gQYYrYUi1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1715606659652

MRN

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.29270246298742364}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.1749949649439655, "platformFee": 0.6644452043000353, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1718670816586

100

MRN267

1718251140000

0

https://firebasestorage.…80e-1f0131ad4aeb

4

0

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…8b6eeedd79ed.jpg

1704225270314

0

[{"name": "Tech Stocks", "slug": "tech-stocks", "groupId": "pK06hNX8MsNw8zaBsX2N", "createdTime": 1715606659964}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1715606659974}, {"name": "AMD", "slug": "amd", "groupId": "d2439e81-a457-4bfa-867c-8b26c20e319a", "createdTime": 171...

["tech-stocks", "stocks", "amd"]

0.25

0.5

1718232083735

1718669271466

0.01

4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2

0

17sKRSczFIZxXQY4tjq3

global-average-temperature-may-2024

968.0356025089633

Global Average Temperature May 2024 per gistemp LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period

1718143108543

KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

MKT

public

1715606800824

Christopher Randles

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Data is currently at", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 8.707436881518731, "platformFee": 1.6665000114734072, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1718143108543

100

ChristopherRandles

1718143108543

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c

5

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "9e1daf7bf771", "prob": 0.98, "text": "May 2024 exceeds +1.025C", "index": 0, "poolNo": 188.08258427279276, "userId": "KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.323008360484394, "textFts": "'+1.025':4 '2024':2 'c':5 'exceed':3 'may':1", "contractId": "17sKRSczFIZxXQY4tjq3", "resolution": "YE...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…614950c81495.jpg

1683475207934

0

[{"name": "🪸 Climate", "slug": "climate", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw", "createdTime": 1715606801199}, {"name": "🌧️ Weather", "slug": "weather", "groupId": "Vw7PuCkPJlK51z43wA4k", "createdTime": 1715606801204}]

["climate", "weather"]

0.25

1718143043640

1718143060160

0.99

KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2

False

0

0.03387074291036244

xsDgvCBkbnpkd7x9sPEI

{"NO": 914.1153499928633, "YES": 1608.4486041830912}

0.019535087394390242

will-the-european-union-dissolve-be

1132.3452313512191

Will the European Union dissolve before or during 2030?

1924991940000

saKUIIZyH8XcQtuE5dqV78AWHF63

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1715610632434

Miguel Pacheco

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES - Includes the dissolution of The Council of the EU, European Parliament and the European Comission before 2031", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NO - Two or more of the aforementioned bodie...

BINARY

{"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -1.3877787807814457e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.184079936606119, "platformFee": 4.184079936606119, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

MiguelPacheco

1715871314209

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJs8Z48chgR2yEFUkmOXMhT1O4HpwzQj5Ugjr6MTlxpsLpf7A=s96-c

19

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…80e0aa159a85.jpg

1715609469180

0

[{"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1715610632658}, {"name": "Europe", "slug": "europe", "groupId": "ue52QI4BQgJgAJJNjLHr", "createdTime": 1715610632660}, {"name": "🌎 Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "groupId": "2wNGnksxJzypXZtiTLNL", "createdTime": 1715...

["world-default", "europe", "geopolitics"]

0.25

0.5

1715871310039

1715648058129

0

Ekp84es7vNvDDX8Z9PZS

-short-fuse-google-io-livestream-pr

4711.508417002715

[ short fuse ] Google I/O Keynote Prop Bets [May 14 10 AM PT]

1716224340000

RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

MKT

public

1715611421848

Archibald Crone

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Add your predictions!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Based on my prediction that Google I/O will be mostly about AI again this year, this market intentionally mirrors the OpenAI event happeni...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 30.048305353235666, "platformFee": 30.048305353235666, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716233382875

1000

BlueDragon

1716234077831

0

https://firebasestorage.…2f3-d0594914d1a2

31

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "ff1e2dba4b82", "prob": 0.03, "text": "Demos new feature for Google Maps", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.702238069701409, "userId": "RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 132.91543106401804, "textFts": "'demo':1 'featur':3 'googl':5 'map':6 'new':2", "contractId": "Ekp84es7vNvDDX8Z9PZS", "resolu...

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…0a2181c71a9c.jpg

1697749128213

0

[{"name": "Prop Bets", "slug": "prop-bets", "groupId": "64e721a5-ed88-4480-9b00-c00a7d4d1e2d", "createdTime": 1715611422235}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715611422244}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "cre...

["prop-bets", "ai", "technology-default", "google-ef2cf716540e", "short-fuse"]

0.25

1715955435792

1716234075670

0.3

RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3

False

0

0.3395874971881399

F0lR2a2VJZ4ad2UbbVaA

{"NO": 178.3592015267515, "YES": 337.91959076257217}

0

shortfuse-will-the-manifold-ai-coun

265.15416100385283

[Short-Fuse] Will the Manifold AI countdown move to before 2030 (average) after the OpenAI event on Monday?

1715634300000

lCq4BTG0BZYYz9SL5tGVOOz3Bx52

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1715611541520

Peter 1169

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the announcement from OpenAI cause the Manifold \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "AGI When?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708", "c...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.845070903160087, "platformFee": 2.845070903160087, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715634743352

234

Peter1169

1716327046463

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL6Qvm2Aa9pfA8_rzlDW13AQD1I4falviuj6hu28IrUbLU=s96-c

7

0

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…1a2b48ec7da6.jpg

1707660435691

0

[{"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1715611541994}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1715611541997}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 17156115...

["openai", "manifold-6748e065087e", "ai", "short-fuse"]

0.25

0.5

1715628058956

1715621333023

0.21

lCq4BTG0BZYYz9SL5tGVOOz3Bx52

0

0.5000000000000001

0l15PnvWmQZFzlnt1xrY

{"NO": 109.81568340919574, "YES": 91.06167433970202}

0.5466802462946988

will-gemini-answer-unpolitical-gaza

50

Will Gemini answer unpolitical Gaza-related questions by end of 2024?

1735682340000

XXYfg8j2XWVCeet9HlOAA1vUwQW2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715611878284

Dark Speculator

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently Gemini refuse to answer any question that somehow relates to Gaza. For example ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Q: What is the location of Gaza strip?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.8369031147340588, "platformFee": 0.8369031147340588, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

0482

1717878443822

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTteS8SwkT3ywrOgne_djZRPozlXiVaKvKDJhqwdJd3Ox=s96-c

4

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…30d814466377.jpg

1691595630760

0

[{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715611878592}, {"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1715611878598}, {"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "groupId": "cea99c1c-afb9-49b2-ad...

["ai", "israel", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "palestine"]

0.25

0.5

1715705058926

0

0.0205999342830329

tT51xY1gnRLx4dszxZXQ

{"NO": 910.1525245998175, "YES": 1884.9024377635196}

0.010054083243786177

will-the-week-of-513-be-remembered

5596.753058626673

Will the week of 5/13 be remembered as one of the most significant weeks in human history?

1893301140000

WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1715611969076

Zvi Mowshowitz

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1789471660648669578", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1789471660648669578", "class": "break-anywhere hove...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 5.408324378618212e-05}

0

{"creatorFee": 11.843806514583921, "platformFee": 11.836727958803372, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

ZviMowshowitz

1717804866679

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c

57

0

0.13333333333333333

1644001035848

0

[{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715611969376}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1715622761023}]

["ai", "openai"]

0.25

0.5

1717804863503

1716073118085

0

0.5

My5nrsLtICrfVnPkK02s

{"NO": 31.990445148675377, "YES": 312.59333696436795}

0.09283793030683223

will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-leave-k

41

Will the Kansas City Chiefs leave Kansas City before 2027?

1798869540000

W2xr0kmXVqg4SzEQltvfpWOsAFO2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715612835784

Gracious

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -1.3877787807814457e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.5777120679121431, "platformFee": 0.5777120679121431, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

GG

1715627407514

0

https://firebasestorage.…4fc-da5f6a7f390c

3

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…3d416ecdb9ed.jpg

1668834736982

0

[{"name": "Kansas City Chiefs", "slug": "kansas-city-chiefs", "groupId": "2abf714e-d387-4dc6-af68-455287828996", "createdTime": 1715612836084}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1715612836088}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hG...

["kansas-city-chiefs", "football", "sports-default"]

0.25

0.5

1715620404900

0

0.5

4N22o4g1uB65hk32HbYI

{"NO": 250.15487502180437, "YES": 39.97523533822144}

0.8622161784979308

will-there-be-a-free-chatbot-built

153

Will there be a free chatbot built on the 400b+ parameter llama 3 model by the end of 2024?

1735649940000

HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715612971960

Daniel

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.06105370904608809, "month": 0.06105370904608809}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.402467993555879, "platformFee": 0.4426569846396935, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

Daniel_MC

1719862707911

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c

7

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…1a756d3d3697.jpg

1678868464369

0

[{"name": "Chatbot Arena Leaderboard", "slug": "chatbot-arena-leaderboard", "groupId": "fecd579f-4044-49c7-9b76-c3a16d222e53", "createdTime": 1715612972253}, {"name": "LLMs", "slug": "llms", "groupId": "7AISXitieE7l07dhslU8", "createdTime": 1715612972248}, {"name": "ChatGPT", "slug": "chatgpt", "groupId": "lG71NUBORXAs...

["chatbot-arena-leaderboard", "llms", "chatgpt", "technology-default"]

0.25

0.5

1719862704701

0

0.49999999999999967

DOcijFU92CRi5DGvCpE7

{"NO": 361.41626899492053, "YES": 27.668925994420462}

1

will-gme-be-halted-for-volatility-a

375.9497321138728

Will $GME be halted for volatility again (May 14th or later) in 2024?

1715697073170

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1715613999864

Semiotic Rivalry

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.422500009877188, "platformFee": 3.422500009877188, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715697073170

100

SemioticRivalry

1715697073170

0

https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf

7

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…8d1fc0f279e4.jpg

1669063432873

0

[{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1715614000201}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1715614000215}]

["economics-default", "stocks"]

0.25

0.5

1715694378471

0.93

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

0

kJOoF90wOrG2yWnakE91

will-i-have-sex-in-the-next-24

8199.15641891793

Will I have sex in the next 24...?

1735689540000

ghx9kL2YQZbfwbBb2RYkkzRruQq1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1715614782337

chicago

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Add your own answers", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am a straight male in my 20s.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I live in SF and I am actively going on da...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 85.27107637096601, "platformFee": 7.159514096130125, "liquidityFee": 0}

50

1000

chicago55372

1720232705283

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKK9cKeRUg52T5TzSh2pPl-t29dQwVhldew2jTHSvH1-_zDXFfW=s96-c

27

1

ANYONE

[{"id": "1c2554ca53cc", "prob": 0.02, "text": "days", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.038563092262791, "userId": "ghx9kL2YQZbfwbBb2RYkkzRruQq1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 604.8250410177329, "textFts": "'day':1", "contractId": "kJOoF90wOrG2yWnakE91", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "ghx9kL2YQZbfwbBb2RYkkzRruQq1", "created...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…e1cfbc129ab7.jpg

1715605111955

0

[{"name": "Dating", "slug": "dating", "groupId": "j3ZE8fkeqiKmRGumy3O1", "createdTime": 1715614782631}, {"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1715614782644}, {"name": "❤️‍🔥 Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3", "cre...

["dating", "personal-goals", "sex-and-love"]

0.25

1720232702032

1718234282983

False

0

1JLAv47DxM741kJHqZsE

who-will-i-debate-at-manifest

875.7331567268677

Who Will I Debate at Manifest?

1717991940000

ns5hOVOdzdhbUwbEo1mqD9kNXrm2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

MKT

public

1715617706362

Cactus Cactus

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I was invited to do an AI debate at https://www.manifest.is/. I haven't been told who I'm debating yet so I was thinking I would give a bit of incentive for them to tell me by insider trading.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 17.002370224470255, "platformFee": 1.8545520808969034, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719921904190

375

CactusCactus

1717991940000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdzi-oSu6XkiCjRqPOQKFK1W9N4ghU4AGVsd7CKMho6=s96-c

15

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "ce7cdf39b175", "prob": 0.08, "text": "Eliezer Yudkowsky", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.56709665506343, "userId": "ns5hOVOdzdhbUwbEo1mqD9kNXrm2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 82.59442537737235, "textFts": "'eliez':1 'yudkowski':2", "contractId": "1JLAv47DxM741kJHqZsE", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "ns5hOVOdzdhb...

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…d6cf0c3870ae.jpg

1691180036197

0

[{"name": "🌶️ Spicyfest", "slug": "spicyfest", "groupId": "89380840-f104-4f1d-9f28-79ee969da610", "createdTime": 1715617706774}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1715617706773}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupI...

["spicyfest", "manifest", "technology-default", "manifest-2024", "ai"]

0.25

1717969521922

1719253006769

0.05

ns5hOVOdzdhbUwbEo1mqD9kNXrm2

False

0

0.5000000000000002

RSIW4nG2BcrgcennBeLl

{"NO": 144.0939699526173, "YES": 69.39915669814854}

0.6749349368437874

will-rabbit-r1-ship-a-fifth-integra

167.8036229961842

Will Rabbit R1 ship a fifth integration this year?

1735689540000

ldCLxO4AHHTftNiB9x4izsM64Em2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715618163746

retr0id

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Famously, the Rabbit R1 shipped featuring only four 3rd party LAM integrations: Spotify, Uber, DoorDash, and Midjourney", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will they add a fifth?", "type": "text"}...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.12259726808228377}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.486355497280598, "platformFee": 1.5002106518318516, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

retr0id

1717739830537

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ6nAjEdqeNlohfS74yM5ocPFfIJB0TO-3ttc3BFqAH0Sk=s96-c

5

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…cc5958ff397d.jpg

1706900602693

0

[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1715618164166}, {"name": "Rabbit R1", "slug": "rabbit-r1", "groupId": "fa0f2bff-3e08-4e36-a828-dc2a2dfb74db", "createdTime": 1715618164221}]

["technology-default", "rabbit-r1"]

0.25

0.5

1717739827222

1717612410805

0

0.5000000000000002

qed5Cic1LcZ9QDiWryrN

{"NO": 457.6921875943733, "YES": 21.848745228883924}

0.9544382059311366

will-the-current-federal-government

664.0293511635223

Will the current federal government of Germany consist until the next regular elections in fall 2025?

1764629940000

TDaU0RS8vcRekap0vMsIP43WKHW2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715618328614

Yourchique

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.022709208049629392, "month": 0.37264485605850006}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.087651215809609, "platformFee": 0.5975793424300566, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

Yourchique

1720103456033

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKZlW7nGMtTFr9oeOScfsOqNG9fqFEyVl0sLxholGijadkXIw=s96-c

4

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…77152d8e7eb4.jpg

1715593062407

0

[{"name": "Germany", "slug": "germany", "groupId": "0egO7eYCaC5HnLwGN8tR", "createdTime": 1715618328881}, {"name": "Elections: World", "slug": "elections-world", "groupId": "w5UI0a5OgD7u18Y4gxJs", "createdTime": 1715618328895}, {"name": "German Politics", "slug": "german-politics", "groupId": "LLEOgfoEBr6wg3VEdFJc", "c...

["germany", "elections-world", "german-politics", "elections"]

0.25

0.5

1720103452998

0

3imOK0ROuXrigyAxcPSy

baltimore-ravens-kansas-city-chiefs

2129.7457951310207

Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs 🏈 SNF

1725595140000

sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715618673664

The Official

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 24.567383059602584, "platformFee": 17.008262275942016, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

10thOfficial

1717459916839

0

https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96

31

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "b8f981e2cf5f", "prob": 0.48999999999999994, "text": "Baltimore Ravens win", "color": "#673ab7", "index": 0, "poolNo": 106.4362113838274, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 110.78054654235098, "textFts": "'baltimor':1 'raven':2 'win':3", "contractId": "3imOK0ROuXrigyAxcPSy", ...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…73f3ecd214ab.jpg

1682437068858

0

[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1715618674002}, {"name": "🏈 NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1715618674000}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 17156186...

["sports-default", "nfl", "football", "kansas-city-chiefs", "sports-betting"]

0.25

1717459913675

1715700112348

False

old

0

0.08831755991129675

rgmSDQVXpfgIWGingOri

{"NO": 964.767143364238, "YES": 841.1403863236449}

0.10000000000000003

will-this-tweet-hold-up-i-predict-t

1261.8293242658813

will this tweet hold up: I predict that chess will be essentially fully solved (like checkers) within 10 years.

2031202740000

KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2

cpmm-1

0

10.29304744442891

False

basic

public

1715618746500

stefanie

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "this market is for a recent tweet from Elon Musk:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1789745303806980448"}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "his subsequent reply was that Grok - the twitter/X AI - will b...

BINARY

{"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 0.0022805500002310714, "month": -2.5396351688300456e-15}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.797853566191225, "platformFee": 5.4226555702318535, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

shankypanky

1719699527324

0

https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108

25

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…397a810a5927.jpg

1698976802308

0

[{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715618747006}, {"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1715618747016}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 17156187...

["ai", "chess", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "willthisholdup"]

0.25

0.5

1719699524038

1716632859947

0

0.4999999999999999

7kQUYdu0zDqzfEVzvC8m

{"NO": 43.548449976587136, "YES": 229.62929806632098}

0

will-i-bike-at-least-60-miles-in-on-fa1b9a1864c0

165.395812202831

Will I bike at least 60 miles in one day prior to July 1st, 2024?

1719891663770

qUuDrCqpKnWMx4CK1bzWeWGp3E22

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1715620026778

Aryeh Zax

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previously on bikefold: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/AryehZax/will-i-bike-at-least-60-miles-in-on-322224ab11a2", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/AryehZax/will-i-bike-a...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.1923178961541147, "month": -0.20000000000000037}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.9911755892233678, "platformFee": 1.6204736555446388, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719891663770

100

azax

1719891663770

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmkqupI4ZhzqaACa9wG2eDL-nOfn60TLW83JLJyg=s96-c

4

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…7b88e4ca6936.jpg

1663132225081

0

[{"name": "Health and Fitness", "slug": "health-and-fitness", "groupId": "e14dccd1-6cc6-4a59-8466-7d5cded7bb43", "createdTime": 1715620027242}]

["health-and-fitness"]

0.25

0.5

1719873756216

0.16

qUuDrCqpKnWMx4CK1bzWeWGp3E22

0

ykZJaucdrJNHFMS7VRAV

what-will-be-true-of-the-xkcd-on-we-6b7119f3f9b4

878.1085542580586

What will be true of the xkcd on Wednesday, May 15th, 2024?

1715745540000

yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

MKT

public

1715620075044

EBurk

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve any answers to these questions as soon as I see the xkcd posted for the given day and have time to resolve. If it ever appears that the post was skipped (I don’t see anything before the next usual post day) I will resolve all answers...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 8.952785638188855, "platformFee": 8.952785638188855, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715804870673

300

EBurk

1715745540000

0

https://firebasestorage.…0e3-2fdb94d99bad

17

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "efc7c1591d9a", "prob": 0.7, "text": "The comic will have a caption", "index": 0, "poolNo": 38.10137350720107, "userId": "yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 16.40360812404511, "textFts": "'caption':6 'comic':2", "contractId": "ykZJaucdrJNHFMS7VRAV", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "yC...

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…af0a38e9f023.jpg

1706489499554

0

[{"name": "🧮 Math", "slug": "mathematics", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1715620075436}, {"name": "Webcomics", "slug": "webcomics", "groupId": "tO2lKFZZPUkSUzf064Rp", "createdTime": 1715620075444}, {"name": "Engineering", "slug": "engineering", "groupId": "49148d79-ce4e-4856-962c-3f90256abeab", "cr...

["mathematics", "webcomics", "engineering", "space", "xkcd"]

0.25

1715673469892

1715794786064

0.35

yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2

False

0

CVdm7mt4GanGAWXsNJS8

who-will-be-the-next-chancellor-of

94.61666465893707

Who will be the next chancellor of The University of Oxford?

1733011140000

sICXNtXt2dZ14BnDqkmbVisozZu2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715621257967

Jony

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The election is due to take place in October 2024. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.8326034285818962, "platformFee": 0.8326034285818962, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

125

Jony

1715695018711

0

https://firebasestorage.…32f-ac199fffc968

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "159af8197dd7", "prob": 0.19859677742719625, "text": "Elish Angiolini", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15.556452884027127, "userId": "sICXNtXt2dZ14BnDqkmbVisozZu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 62.77539663316848, "textFts": "'angiolini':2 'elish':1", "contractId": "CVdm7mt4GanGAWXsNJS8", "createdTime": 1715621257967, "p...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…1a75d6ee0724.jpg

1704308854841

0

[{"name": "Colleges & Universities", "slug": "colleges-universities", "groupId": "3qsRSyWVqskVH54fz1CR", "createdTime": 1715621258355}, {"name": "🇬🇧 UK", "slug": "uk", "groupId": "m9vlFjXUHNgGgU9OLK1Y", "createdTime": 1715621258360}, {"name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "groupId": "i5JOzjrK5ZMHPSkhgzoi", "creat...

["colleges-universities", "uk", "elections", "uk-politics"]

0.25

1715695015494

True

0

RaUhdxs3ToW4qEOXslFy

when-will-the-worlds-total-fertilit

5725.617140120622

When will the world's Total Fertility Rate be reported to have fallen below replacement level?

3131958600000

4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715621351672

Tripping

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a cumulative probability market. For an answer to resolve YES, reports/publications/data from any sufficiently conventionally high-status source (e.g. the UN Population Division, the World Bank, the CIA World Factbook, the Population Refere...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 98.07661475548012, "platformFee": 22.710583986907086, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1125

Tripping

1719767035267

0

https://firebasestorage.…25f-2823bd2dce88

50

2

DISABLED

[{"id": "9a047bd0e134", "prob": 0.08708424579251477, "text": "Before 2025", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.721371624136154, "userId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 80.94416774946012, "textFts": "'2025':2", "contractId": "RaUhdxs3ToW4qEOXslFy", "createdTime": 1715621351672, "probChanges": {"day":...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…b9489255555f.jpg

1669033757222

0

[{"name": "Population", "slug": "population", "groupId": "P7HiNe9pdty8MiXnsKS5", "createdTime": 1715621352285}, {"name": "Children", "slug": "children", "groupId": "M3DL9ICA4BGx11x5YnPi", "createdTime": 1715621352288}, {"name": "Fertility", "slug": "fertility", "groupId": "23128bbb-1ffb-426f-88bd-0d723864dca8", "create...

["population", "children", "fertility"]

0.25

1719767032147

1715730784392

False

0

xErQexnY1qWpeHdmtx1p

did-you-find-todays-openai-announce

0

Did you find today's OpenAI announcement disappointing?

1715626156924

FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1

none

0

1000000

True

public

1715621518612

Savior of Plant

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715626200807

SaviorofPlant

1715626158817

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c

15

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…2eb019efb2f5.jpg

1698371327350

0

[{"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1715621518917}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1715621518911}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 17156215...

["openai", "technology-default", "ai"]

0.25

1715621633066

["dbd7354d6fa0"]

0

cZyLfPyAegws3Ad9aX8n

how-exciting-was-openais-event-anno

0

How exciting was OpenAI's event announcing GPT-4o?

1715756340000

8lZo8X5lewh4hnCoreI7iSc0GxK2

none

0

1000000

True

public

1715621697439

Manifold AI

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hello GPT-4o | OpenAI", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://openai.com/index/hello-gpt-4o/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:un...

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715756340659

ManifoldAI

1715676740779

0

https://firebasestorage.…924-001fe00f6330

172

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…d606dc4b6dfc.jpg

1711068181629

0

[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1715621697814}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1715621697823}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 17156216...

["technology-default", "openai", "ai"]

0.25

1715676739325

["e533ebcf5c80"]

0

0.5000000000000002

DAYN8BMyIDmtyA1ZVnMc

{"NO": 10.050378152592089, "YES": 994.9874371066198}

0

will-gpt4o-achieve-elo-more-than-10

1005.027381285833

Will GPT4o achieve ELO more than 100 points greater than GPT-4-Turbo on the LMSYS chatbot arena?

1715874374273

POIWlbLM4aUD65YXxSWiMFzQPor1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1715621760172

Ashly

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to when the error bounds on the ELO on chatbot arena are less than +-8", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.5441205256704444, "platformFee": 3.5441205256704444, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715874374273

100

ashly_webb

1715874374273

0

https://firebasestorage.…6f9-6c5600923f12

12

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…f5575ad9e9a1.jpg

1703096730666

0

[{"name": "Chatbot Arena Leaderboard", "slug": "chatbot-arena-leaderboard", "groupId": "fecd579f-4044-49c7-9b76-c3a16d222e53", "createdTime": 1715621760464}, {"name": "LLMs", "slug": "llms", "groupId": "7AISXitieE7l07dhslU8", "createdTime": 1715621760472}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT...

["chatbot-arena-leaderboard", "llms", "openai", "technology-default", "chatgpt"]

0.25

0.5

1715859692005

1715859746738

0.01

POIWlbLM4aUD65YXxSWiMFzQPor1

0

0.5124956866431091

VEhevQJJM6Pyyu9RFDLJ

{"NO": 922.7325573423293, "YES": 1079.42308928313}

0.4733130337346295

will-the-usa-have-20-or-more-of-adv

4912.667031838426

Will the USA have 20% or more of advanced logic chip production by 2032?

1988168340000

WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2

cpmm-1

0

7.783640596221257

False

basic

public

1715622453936

Zvi Mowshowitz

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See this thread and article: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/mackhawk/status/1789966139700781249", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/mackhawk/status/1789966139700781249", "class": "b...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 14.66589740333093, "platformFee": 11.82819697229075, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

ZviMowshowitz

1716606411878

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c

15

0

0.13333333333333333

1644001035848

0

[{"name": "AI Impacts", "slug": "ai-impacts", "groupId": "q3Su0NeV9ta4DqhqlIEq", "createdTime": 1715622454811}, {"name": "Semiconductors", "slug": "semiconductors", "groupId": "49KBGVeMphsHmxnQZY40", "createdTime": 1715622454807}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "...

["ai-impacts", "semiconductors", "politics-default", "technology-default"]

0.25

0.5

1716606408343

1715682866083

0

0.4999999999999999

898ojZwmz1dHbRLDtGAi

{"NO": 40.60350558254121, "YES": 246.28415346235096}

0.14153102896694333

will-alphafold-4-be-announced-in-20

156

Will Alphafold 4 be announced in 2024?

1735707540000

srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715623641385

Bayesian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any announcement along the lines of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://blog.google/technology/ai/google-deepmind-isomorphic-alphafold-3-ai-model/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://blog.google/technology/ai/g...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.005615336005886318}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.4864248045534794, "platformFee": 1.4295620832819198, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

Bayesian

1719074937941

0

https://firebasestorage.…a41-dbd2866cd47c

9

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…1178e6c52842.jpg

1656040913178

0

[{"name": "Alphafold", "slug": "alphafold", "groupId": "7650f318-cb1c-4ab0-8d69-04be77daee2b", "createdTime": 1715623641737}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1715623641752}, {"name": "Google Deepmind", "slug": "google-deepmind", "groupId": "d629...

["alphafold", "technology-default", "google-deepmind", "ai"]

0.25

0.5

1719074934878

0

0.49999999999999983

M9N5XEEZHCvDxum4tIYy

{"NO": 127.53272110217723, "YES": 78.41124939213174}

0.619259310170974

will-alphafold-4-be-announced-in-20-47133ddcdde4

88.9715446167629

Will Alphafold 4 be announced in 2025?

1767243540000

srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715623734539

Bayesian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any announcement along the lines of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://blog.google/technology/ai/google-deepmind-isomorphic-alphafold-3-ai-model/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://blog.google/technology/ai/g...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.005781140708048804}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.5006678406082397, "platformFee": 1.458934562513233, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

Bayesian

1719074954554

0

https://firebasestorage.…a41-dbd2866cd47c

3

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…9d8473cc565e.jpg

1656040913178

0

[{"name": "Google Deepmind", "slug": "google-deepmind", "groupId": "d62966d0-a5ad-43a2-a263-26cba4543538", "createdTime": 1715623734914}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715623734915}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZ...

["google-deepmind", "ai", "technology-default", "alphafold"]

0.25

0.5

1719074951472

0

0.499999999999999

teiXhVbc7nAYKh5lnbQe

{"NO": 994.9874371066227, "YES": 10.050378152592117}

1

will-gpt4o-reach-top-3-on-lmsys-by

2130.1237988705393

Will GPT-4o reach top 3 on LMSYS by the end of May 2024?

1716006402635

Oa8lKJXI9AZWPV2welD0bq6wzng1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1715624866886

axr

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://openai.com/index/hello-gpt-4o/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://openai.com/index/hello-gpt-4o/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underlin...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.747170494135707, "platformFee": 6.747170494135707, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716006402635

100

axr

1716006402635

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI-2-ukKvOv8h_zn7h7V3spENiHQksstxKF5yUaDgdedHU=s96-c

13

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…01fb4de7d98f.jpg

1707468645117

0

[{"name": "GPT-5 Speculation", "slug": "gpt5-speculation", "groupId": "XjoIQCNrsc4HP3H3DdTP", "createdTime": 1715624867427}, {"name": "ChatGPT", "slug": "chatgpt", "groupId": "lG71NUBORXAsxGmQZo77", "createdTime": 1715624867456}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": ...

["gpt5-speculation", "chatgpt", "openai", "gpt4-speculation", "ai"]

0.25

0.5

1715899857172

1715899876842

0.99

Oa8lKJXI9AZWPV2welD0bq6wzng1

0

0.10399327458661149

huLsRmjAQTwP6ids7s6J

{"NO": 908.7468703149925, "YES": 1338.3238015377206}

0.0730518396979122

will-people-become-insane-because-w

1013.1262304741955

Will people become insane because we make AI too human-like? (resolves in 1 year)

1748728740000

JVuUPkMeNJXEgBbaW2vZm0u9qvI2

cpmm-1

0

10.21745530043587

False

basic

public

1715626501296

HMYS

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://twitter.com/i/status/1790068836961509673", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/i/status/1790068836961509673", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decorati...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.004745191166636867}

0

{"creatorFee": 15.345105716480969, "platformFee": 8.782424473597276, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

hmys

1718803682217

0

https://firebasestorage.…3cc-f3c3968a9315

33

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…667db727505d.jpg

1671995322635

0

[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1715626501669}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1715626501670}, {"name": "🤖❤️ AI Alignment", "slug": "ai-alignment", "groupId": "p8Tmu38lHhN1JQ...

["technology-default", "science-default", "ai-alignment", "ai"]

0.25

0.5

1718803679113

1715966733832

0

0.5000000000000001

oh3OY9LccExp91hn32Y4

{"NO": 38.724496198057565, "YES": 258.23447641138347}

0.1304035229438507

will-a-baltic-state-decide-to-send

210.17574158421777

Will Estonia, Latvia and / or Lithuania decide to send ≥ 300 military personnel to Ukraine by December 1, 2024?

1735343940000

xh2QtJ0WuKQFK3nyXsxDRxBhqYB3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715626595214

IY

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The announcement must be from a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Baltic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_states", "...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.7948910021993851, "platformFee": 1.7948910021993851, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

vitamind

1715964993086

0

https://firebasestorage.…977-5917b2772a78

5

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…872b3aab95d6.jpg

1687797971742

0

[{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1715626596032}, {"name": "🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1715626596037}, {"name": "Baltics", "slug": "baltics", "groupId": "7dc733db-e265-4c52-895f-4470...

["ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war", "baltics", "ukraine-counteroffensive", "estonia"]

0.25

0.5

1715964989831

0

0.5000000000000002

FVUAgfSCRoTFo12uk2OU

{"NO": 65.4653670707977, "YES": 152.75252316519465}

0

will-tetra-have-a-gpt4o-button-in-t

518.8722670323465

Will Tetra have a GPT-4o button in the Models dropdown when per checks the ChatGPT website on the 14th May?

1715698729862

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1715626802094

Tetra

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently, I can't see 4o. I'm not sure how fast the rollout is, or whether my location (the UK) is relevant.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I expect to check in the morning, about 5 pm BST. ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.334221050381967, "platformFee": 7.334221050381967, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715698729862

100

Tetraspace

1715699266765

0

https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f

21

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…3356f2a01808.jpg

1642130392212

0

[{"name": "Tetraspace", "slug": "tetraspace", "groupId": "SpOYh2aGkJtKCq37OO9p", "createdTime": 1715626802448}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715626802513}]

["tetraspace", "ai"]

0.25

0.5

1715672557862

1715699265275

0.3

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

0

ddHWsBAyhoksIdVElOuO

which-school-will-win-write-it-do-i

534.4962693001557

Which school will win Write It Do It at the 2024 Science Olympiad National Tournament (Division C)?

1716613140000

fs8yuy9USXhvZsudocjZA0hx3tY2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

b4e3a0f3e9fe

public

1715627352703

Sentient Tree

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Science Olympiad: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.soinc.org/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.soinc.org/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 6.6032078862691606, "platformFee": 6.4167509220692, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716691734970

275

SentientTree

1717220152034

0

https://firebasestorage.…fe2-2de1f9f02a4d

9

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "6344b598cb08", "prob": 0.06898741748857908, "text": "Syosset H.S. Syosset, NY", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.384514353519133, "userId": "fs8yuy9USXhvZsudocjZA0hx3tY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 153.63854011005532, "textFts": "'h.s':2 'ny':4 'syosset':1,3", "contractId": "ddHWsBAyhoksIdVElOuO", "resolverId": "fs...

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…b7a6bdbf47e8.jpg

1715507958973

0

[{"name": "Biology Competitions", "slug": "biology-competitions", "groupId": "ff1be885-eae6-4001-ba82-5b8f3dfabcb9", "createdTime": 1715627353017}, {"name": "Science Olympiad", "slug": "science-olympiad", "groupId": "036d984b-1f76-45f7-b07f-b641425b12e2", "createdTime": 1715627353024}, {"name": "Physics Competitions", ...

["biology-competitions", "science-olympiad", "competitive-physics", "chemistry-competitions", "science-default"]

0.25

1716612692771

1717220151173

{"b4e3a0f3e9fe": 100}

fs8yuy9USXhvZsudocjZA0hx3tY2

True

prob-desc

0

mssygwsImvFhgDTKmGRq

what-of-americans-will-develop-seri

248

What % of Americans will develop serious emotional relationships with AI by year-end 2025?

1735707540000

eOLu0ORi40ULQoOrVWCUyfvEaum2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715628383444

Jeff Koons

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the film Her, a very large fraction of people have serious, emotional relations with AI systems to an extent that changes human social relations in a major way. What % of Americans will develop serious emotional relationships with AI by year-end...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.0242719192078364, "platformFee": 1.0242719192078364, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

JKHater

1715672326246

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJKHater%2FUUGVxInxvm.10?alt=media&token=79cb6b55-78a4-4e76-8c22-b1fb61043d3a

6

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "e1588a014197", "prob": 0.9415036254001052, "text": "0-5%", "index": 0, "poolNo": 115.81262352479294, "userId": "eOLu0ORi40ULQoOrVWCUyfvEaum2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7.195531091262559, "textFts": "'-5':2 '0':1", "contractId": "mssygwsImvFhgDTKmGRq", "createdTime": 1715628383444, "probChanges": {"day": 0,...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…5eadafc653a4.jpg

1690395446842

0

[{"name": "Anthropic", "slug": "anthropic", "groupId": "B8jfqGL9Uqu5nejktmVi", "createdTime": 1715628384446}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1715628384478}, {"name": "ChatGPT", "slug": "chatgpt", "groupId": "lG71NUBORXAsxGmQZo77", "createdTime": 1715628384646}]

["anthropic", "openai", "chatgpt"]

0.25

1715672322970

True

0

v3PSIKddqaahid1xZtXZ

why-do-people-say-have-a-good-rest

0

Why do people say "Have a good rest of your day!"

kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2

none

0

1000000

False

public

1715628646355

Ernie

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Genuinely asking, not curmudgeon or troll", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It's so ungainly compared to a simple thank you or have a nice day", "type": "text"}]}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

Ernie

1715727420628

0

https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466

6

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…6b417b221ef1.jpg

1668384110640

0

[{"name": "Sociology", "slug": "sociology", "groupId": "iRdbpPisROiQsbEQG6xh", "createdTime": 1715628646835}]

["sociology"]

0.25

1715727419025

0

r3rrv72ABWPWBmSxTykz

who-will-be-the-nfl-mvp-in-the-2024

50.779278047635515

Who will be the NFL MVP in the 2024 season? ADD CANDIDATES

1735707540000

LNa9wq1qZPhEctGqTEsNMxrKuYL2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715629437697

Joe Binder

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If any other player receives the AP MVP award, resolves other. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the season is cancelled/award not given/Co-MVP is given out, resolves N/A. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 2.3763492901133065, "platformFee": 0.1645941177398198, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

300

BigJoe69

1719031049537

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLSqTmnElTofr5GtIJcvhTSLKYP966UykrHbIiJtmlmfQuLnlE=s96-c

3

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "e9e0532cdb79", "prob": 0.24095034231746185, "text": "Patrick Mahomes", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25.481418222806507, "userId": "LNa9wq1qZPhEctGqTEsNMxrKuYL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 80.2723980105554, "textFts": "'mahom':2 'patrick':1", "contractId": "r3rrv72ABWPWBmSxTykz", "createdTime": 1715629437697, "prob...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…b541139b65d6.jpg

1715535389330

0

[{"name": "NFL MVP", "slug": "nfl-mvp", "groupId": "9055252f-b030-4b8f-983d-e901a9db234c", "createdTime": 1715629438136}, {"name": "NFL Futures", "slug": "nfl-futures", "groupId": "470aae8a-05a8-4fee-8127-7e3fbd4db7c8", "createdTime": 1715629438129}, {"name": "NFL Playoffs", "slug": "nfl-playoffs", "groupId": "d7b6ca7e...

["nfl-mvp", "nfl-futures", "nfl-playoffs", "nfl", "2024-3d9da60b52f8"]

0.25

1719031046339

True

0

0.49999999999999983

BSjB1nwQ13zUSGOWmpFY

{"NO": 102.89101288635823, "YES": 97.19021826566012}

1

will-nvidia-nasdaq-nvda-close-highe-8dd4392847ed

5

Will Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) close higher May 24 than May 17?

1715972400000

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1715630664758

Keenen W

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NVIDIA Corp - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Resolves to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nasdaq Close Price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/nvda...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.08384161842120655, "platformFee": 0.08384161842120655, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716588725607

100

KeenenW

1715972400000

0

https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb

4

0

2

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…2bbdaf5f979a.jpg

1697247005528

0

[{"name": "GPU", "slug": "gpu", "groupId": "0e284bb8-81b7-48fc-8b3b-c459de7d87a8", "createdTime": 1715630665376}, {"name": "Tech Stocks", "slug": "tech-stocks", "groupId": "pK06hNX8MsNw8zaBsX2N", "createdTime": 1715630665378}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 171...

["gpu", "tech-stocks", "stocks", "finance", "nvidia"]

0.25

0.5

1715957558123

0.51

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

0

0.5000000000000001

MxXg1KJpSBCZS9Qozol6

{"NO": 108.78706408770992, "YES": 91.9226939697304}

1

will-tesla-nasdaq-tsla-close-higher-8670b84be7d6

15

Will Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) close higher May 24 than May 17?

1715972400000

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1715630777798

Keenen W

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Tesla Inc - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Resolves to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nasdaq Close Price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla",...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.24737492400261832, "platformFee": 0.24737492400261832, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716588700796

100

KeenenW

1715972400000

0

https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb

5

0

2

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…56fc11723a5d.jpg

1697247005528

0

[{"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1715630778210}, {"name": "Tech Stocks", "slug": "tech-stocks", "groupId": "pK06hNX8MsNw8zaBsX2N", "createdTime": 1715630778207}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 17156307...

["finance", "tech-stocks", "stocks", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "tesla"]

0.25

0.5

1715966898676

0.54

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

0

0.5000000000000002

89AA78AXZxbwKdkggKPJ

{"NO": 266.0134709176929, "YES": 37.59208120363983}

1

will-the-sp-stock-index-close-highe-12897236cb3c

203

Will the S&P stock index close higher on May 14 than it closed on May 13?

1715717016494

Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1715630852777

Jim Fix

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.801514975320301, "platformFee": 1.801514975320301, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715717016494

100

JimFix

1715717016494

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c

2

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…ce4d083fb402.jpg

1696775041650

0

0.25

0.5

1715712549698

0.88

Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12

0

0.49999999999999983

TGjCavw8se101RepmAYl

{"NO": 102.89101288635823, "YES": 97.19021826566012}

1

will-apple-nasdaq-aapl-close-higher-57cec7ccde66

3

Will Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) close higher May 24 than May 17?

1715972400000

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1715630855139

Keenen W

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Apple Inc - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Resolves according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nasdaq Close Price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/st...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.05064676990215071, "platformFee": 0.05064676990215071, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716588669760

100

KeenenW

1715972400000

0

https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb

3

0

2

0.13333333333333333

1697247005528

0

[{"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1715630855435}, {"name": "AI Stocks", "slug": "ai-stocks", "groupId": "Jf4rKNcxovEVEE8CyOgN", "createdTime": 1715630855432}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1715630855439}, ...

["apple", "ai-stocks", "stocks", "tech-stocks", "finance"]

0.25

0.5

1715971327894

0.51

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

0

0.5

fj84Bc3ogP6swITdW72U

{"NO": 148.4650355441961, "YES": 67.35592635225638}

1

will-nvidia-nasdaq-nvda-close-highe-a53df6c05a32

52

Will Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) close higher May 15 than May 14?

1715713200000

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1715630904638

Keenen W

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NVIDIA Corp - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Resolves to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nasdaq Historical Data", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.7124536871774511, "platformFee": 0.7124536871774511, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715806898082

100

KeenenW

1715713200000

0

https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb

5

0

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…f485e3185bb9.jpg

1697247005528

0

[{"name": "Tech Stocks", "slug": "tech-stocks", "groupId": "pK06hNX8MsNw8zaBsX2N", "createdTime": 1715630904963}, {"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1715630904965}, {"name": "GPU", "slug": "gpu", "groupId": "0e284bb8-81b7-48fc-8b3b-c459de7d87a8", "createdTime": 1...

["tech-stocks", "finance", "gpu", "ai-stocks", "nvidia"]

0.25

0.5

1715710622007

0.69

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

0

0.5

61KfjvzLdICmkAROqjB0

{"NO": 99.99106478330727, "YES": 100.00893601514505}

0

will-nvidia-nasdaq-nvda-close-highe-8069aee34e5a

2

Will Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) close higher May 16 than May 15?

1715799600000

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1715630928779

Keenen W

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NVIDIA Corp - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Resolves to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nasdaq Historical Data", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.03381566994669311, "platformFee": 0.03381566994669311, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715918695324

100

KeenenW

1715799600000

0

https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb

2

0

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…86643bd1216e.jpg

1697247005528

0

[{"name": "GPU", "slug": "gpu", "groupId": "0e284bb8-81b7-48fc-8b3b-c459de7d87a8", "createdTime": 1715630929071}, {"name": "Nvidia", "slug": "nvidia", "groupId": "43f31fc9-9568-44c6-842c-7c9e091b81c3", "createdTime": 1715630929070}, {"name": "Tech Stocks", "slug": "tech-stocks", "groupId": "pK06hNX8MsNw8zaBsX2N", "crea...

["gpu", "nvidia", "tech-stocks", "finance", "ai-stocks"]

0.25

0.5

1715761777351

0.5

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

0

0.5000000000000001

J2aOwxgKDjuKLSe3E6PD

{"NO": 158.79905969166006, "YES": 62.97266507381715}

0

will-nvidia-nasdaq-nvda-close-highe-e9f413a3a090

144.15369721068723

Will Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) close higher May 17 than May 16?

1715886000000

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1715631023423

Keenen W

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NVIDIA Corp - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Resolves to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nasdaq Historical Data", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.8162482375955913, "platformFee": 1.8162482375955913, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715984919322

100

KeenenW

1715886000000

0

https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb

8

0

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…05e694bf305b.jpg

1697247005528

0

[{"name": "GPU", "slug": "gpu", "groupId": "0e284bb8-81b7-48fc-8b3b-c459de7d87a8", "createdTime": 1715631023987}, {"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1715631023977}, {"name": "Nvidia", "slug": "nvidia", "groupId": "43f31fc9-9568-44c6-842c-7c9e091b81c3", "createdTi...

["gpu", "finance", "nvidia", "ai-stocks", "tech-stocks"]

0.25

0.5

1715877147373

0.72

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

0

0.49999999999999983

FP7NCWEMlEwHR3FjMGZs

{"NO": 102.89101288635823, "YES": 97.19021826566012}

1

will-nvidia-nasdaq-nvda-close-highe-5c10be35f3f2

5

Will Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) close higher May 20 than May 17?

1715972400000

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1715631088160

Keenen W

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NVIDIA Corp - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Resolves to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nasdaq Historical Data", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.08384161842120655, "platformFee": 0.08384161842120655, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716240372692

100

KeenenW

1715972400000

0

https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb

4

0

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…38415afb09af.jpg

1697247005528

0

[{"name": "Nvidia", "slug": "nvidia", "groupId": "43f31fc9-9568-44c6-842c-7c9e091b81c3", "createdTime": 1715631088511}, {"name": "Tech Stocks", "slug": "tech-stocks", "groupId": "pK06hNX8MsNw8zaBsX2N", "createdTime": 1715631088513}, {"name": "GPU", "slug": "gpu", "groupId": "0e284bb8-81b7-48fc-8b3b-c459de7d87a8", "crea...

["nvidia", "tech-stocks", "gpu", "finance", "ai-stocks"]

0.25

0.5

1715964748136

0.51

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

0

0.5

1rwUuZn0GNbQ1zFuXQuc

{"NO": 36.915100139585824, "YES": 270.8918562373484}

0.11992938877697205

will-nintendo-file-a-lawsuit-to-blo

220

Will Nintendo file a lawsuit to block the use of "recompilation" of N64 games?

1735711140000

rzqsLOz6k8PH88JIzdGmH7CmAw73

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715631302176

Wilson Kime

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There is a new way to emulate N64 games by recompiling the games to run natively on Windows or Linux at much better framerates than emulation has previously allowed. See ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ywWwUuWRgsM", "t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.2760849844335946, "platformFee": 2.2760849844335946, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

wilsonkime

1716198945951

0

https://firebasestorage.…7e6-3b1946ddd776

4

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…99a9b1996aba.jpg

1645901203260

0

[{"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1715631302522}, {"name": "Nintendo", "slug": "nintendo", "groupId": "RP9YmNIFe88Grg68Ivp2", "createdTime": 1715631314416}, {"name": "Video Games", "slug": "video-games", "groupId": "9FaZmHrfS8IcDJyu6pUD", "createdTime": 171563132...

["gaming", "nintendo", "video-games"]

0.25

0.5

1716198942586

0

0.5

VidmxAURE6sdcOAiMjiA

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

sodo-casino

0

SODO Casino

1715701997852

bBjH4wSD19e45t1jYjxDGklbD2r1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

CANCEL

public

1715631434300

SODO Casino

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SODO Casino là một trong những nhà cái trực tuyến phổ biến, nổi tiếng trong cộng đồng cá cược. Được thành lập với mục tiêu cung cấp trải nghiệm cá cược trực tuyến chất lượng và an toàn, SODO Casino đã thu hút được sự quan tâm của đông đảo người chơ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715701997852

100

SODOCasino803e

1715701997852

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL0aIGg2_quyeC4MsX_BX2dZDZ5Jleu5HJG27T5UcrfaHeqT6ze=s96-c

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…cce3d0335ec3.jpg

1715631285880

0

0.25

0.5

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

0

0.5000000000000041

rALjLzo1dvKpyGZ8K4m3

{"NO": 778.7776938097588, "YES": 12.840634855731903}

1

nba-playoffs-game-4-boston-celtics

2242.6943628829213

NBA Playoffs: Game 4 Boston Celtics Vs Cleveland Cavaliers: Will Boston Lead After Quarter 1?

1715645286278

63I0ceD7FEPXr8C2GQNAG2FpXhb2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1715632844120

Haribo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes if Boston leads at end of 1st quarter.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No if Boston is losing at end of 1st quarter.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "50% if Tied", "type": "text"}...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.294805789121165, "platformFee": 9.294805789121165, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715645286278

100

Haribo

1715645286278

0

https://firebasestorage.…c7f-e96e7084fcfd

9

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…138c35774e4d.jpg

1715590848992

0

[{"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b559-4202-b3be-d1dffecbdecd", "createdTime": 1715632844686}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime": 1715632844825}, {"name": "NBA Playoffs", "slug": "nba-playoffs", "groupId": "8f8bc28b-e3cc-4...

["20232024-nba-season", "nba", "nba-playoffs", "sports-default"]

0.25

0.5

1715643716748

0.98

63I0ceD7FEPXr8C2GQNAG2FpXhb2

0

0.49999999999999956

YTI7c1261Nh2uEQk1diD

{"NO": 395.8114029012533, "YES": 25.26455763199626}

1

in-how-many-hours-will-gpt4o-be-liv

715.7378010807275

In how many hours will GPT-4o be live on ChatGPT?

1716081640617

OcQJOdj0RPRna74hkfLfB6QL2dC2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1715632844792

Caleb Biddulph

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "GPT-4o is supposed to be released for free on ChatGPT, but I don't see it there yet and I'm impatient. I'm outsourcing to Manifold so I don't get distracted checking.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.452383148691737, "platformFee": 4.452383148691737, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716081640617

100

CDBiddulph

1716081704553

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJfnooldvqsfyLB7ZRjdJceJURCVsUcLn8Ir7VvJneRY2A=s96-c

5

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…96902c809b7a.jpg

1700327636837

0

[{"name": "ChatGPT", "slug": "chatgpt", "groupId": "lG71NUBORXAsxGmQZo77", "createdTime": 1715632845504}, {"name": "GPT-4o", "slug": "gpt4o", "groupId": "9c3a6cba-7016-4fe5-b895-b83529f50e78", "createdTime": 1715632845506}]

["chatgpt", "gpt4o"]

0.25

0.5

1716025534331

1716081702398

0.1

OcQJOdj0RPRna74hkfLfB6QL2dC2

0

0.5000000000000001

Ue4WuBLCjAWalc1OxyKv

{"NO": 10.050378152592089, "YES": 994.9874371066171}

0

nba-playoffs-game-4-boston-celtics-cf7f5e5c7264

1440.7093662607977

NBA Playoffs: Game 4 Boston Celtics Vs Cleveland Cavaliers: Will Boston Score More Points During The 2nd Quarter?

1715645362413

63I0ceD7FEPXr8C2GQNAG2FpXhb2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1715632979480

Haribo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes if Boston scores more points than Cleveland during the 2nd quarter.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No if Boston scores less points than Cleveland during the 2nd quarter.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.4617094344924695, "platformFee": 5.4617094344924695, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715645362413

100

Haribo

1715645362413

0

https://firebasestorage.…c7f-e96e7084fcfd

5

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…3b132daecff1.jpg

1715590848992

0

[{"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime": 1715632979840}, {"name": "NBA Playoffs", "slug": "nba-playoffs", "groupId": "8f8bc28b-e3cc-4cb4-885f-6486002430f1", "createdTime": 1715632979987}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "create...

["nba", "nba-playoffs", "sports-default", "20232024-nba-season"]

0.25

0.5

1715645300910

0.01

63I0ceD7FEPXr8C2GQNAG2FpXhb2

0

0.4999999999999992

ukbmseIUEcx7Gsq0AOtF

{"NO": 994.9874371066205, "YES": 10.050378152592103}

1

nba-playoffs-game-4-boston-celtics-4700ab703397

1568.7449258038362

NBA Playoffs: Game 4 Boston Celtics Vs Cleveland Cavaliers: Will Boston Score More Points During The 3rd Quarter?

1715649147255

63I0ceD7FEPXr8C2GQNAG2FpXhb2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1715633035314

Haribo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes if Boston scores more points than Cleveland during the 3rd quarter.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No if Boston scores less points than Cleveland during the 3rd quarter.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.8204272463303495, "platformFee": 7.8204272463303495, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715649147255

100

Haribo

1715649147255

0

https://firebasestorage.…c7f-e96e7084fcfd

9

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…93377765b768.jpg

1715590848992

0

[{"name": "NBA Playoffs", "slug": "nba-playoffs", "groupId": "8f8bc28b-e3cc-4cb4-885f-6486002430f1", "createdTime": 1715633036033}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime": 1715633036034}, {"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b559-4...

["nba-playoffs", "nba", "20232024-nba-season", "sports-default"]

0.25

0.5

1715648601212

0.99

63I0ceD7FEPXr8C2GQNAG2FpXhb2

0

0.5176789179719565

GDGJ8V3HotD2X9b8vS90

{"NO": 249.03520992255284, "YES": 250.5473625405158}

0.5161672321242216

will-openai-achieve-500-million-mon

41.499186581095735

Will OpenAI achieve 500 million Monthly Active Users by the end of the year?

1735685940000

hKURbhPsW2VpezOdAAisTTCIBLn2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715634488948

And_Che

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will OpenAI achieve 500 million Monthly Active Users by the end of 2024, with resolution based on official company reports or announcements confirming the total number of MAU at that time?", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.704412437317538, "platformFee": 0.704412437317538, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

250

Andchebot

1716327018953

0

https://firebasestorage.…4ad-d86c871b115c

4

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…34b0f40d5f68.jpg

1703165788425

0

[{"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1715634489362}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715634489364}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 17156344...

["openai", "ai", "technology-default", "2024-3d9da60b52f8"]

0.25

0.5

1715718434898

0

rlbPYI8OAlcpXEb3ndCV

manifold-cash-prizes-via-sweepstake

6825.625197333152

Manifold Cash Prizes via Sweepstakes Prop Bets

1735707540000

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715634910168

David Glidden

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bottom line up front: I'm very interested in how Manifold will evolve this year toward this \"cash prizes via sweepstakes\" initiative. Most initial answers come from Manifold's official ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "May 1st announcement", "type": ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 32.22273661542203, "platformFee": 27.766064281079213, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

dglid

1717788213607

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

24

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "89f5d7a6bc7c", "prob": 0.34150185495186264, "text": "Ability to earn real cash prizes is implemented by end of June (per May 1st announcement: \"we aim to launch this in 1-2 months\")", "index": 0, "poolNo": 18.435768859424734, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 35.548619781...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…ea914ca20781.jpg

1643941084707

0

[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1715634910647}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1715634910658}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-bus...

["technology-default", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-business-future", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-users"]

0.25

1717788210520

1717010645968

False

prob-desc

0

0.14

wbr9u16Mdpu2cbcYuDb4

{"NO": 99.21617550636282, "YES": 104.9526293663298}

0.13336848594112333

will-petertodds-last-stand-the-fina

5

Will "' petertodd'’s last stand: The final days of ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

1769904000000

h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715636091335

Less Wrong

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.023685316835102475, "platformFee": 0.023685316835102475, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

LessWrong

1715648113754

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c

1

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…64a04af1ba08.jpg

1706554674237

0

[{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1715636091795}]

["lesswrong-annual-review"]

0.25

0.14

1715648110276

0

0.5

tnw0FxQnMs9jWYaaEx0s

{"NO": 163.33063199179736, "YES": 61.225502393832684}

0.7273487871469582

will-toyota-stop-selling-hydrogenpo

65

Will Toyota stop selling hydrogen-powered cars like the Mirai by the end of 2030?

1925074740000

G3LhSYHrymapMN91FqCFhteTKqQ2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715636689658

GM

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve NO if Toyota are still selling the Mirai or another hydrogen-powered car through normal sales channels (dealer or direct to public via web etc.) in any market on 1st January 2031. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.83468400410132, "platformFee": 0.83468400410132, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

GtothaM

1715648473299

0

https://firebasestorage.…44d-e921c46e8707

2

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…75505def5df2.jpg

1703010438797

0

[{"name": "Automotive", "slug": "automotive", "groupId": "dNh5aQXlwLm4uCesYIti", "createdTime": 1715636690254}, {"name": "Cars", "slug": "cars", "groupId": "cfaa7108-ad3b-444c-bf5e-c5da03db1eae", "createdTime": 1715636690262}, {"name": "Hydrogen", "slug": "hydrogen", "groupId": "5fa94172-8f09-4e4b-813a-b6bc308b3874", "...

["automotive", "cars", "hydrogen", "energy", "electric-vehicles"]

0.25

0.5

1715648469891

0

0.5000000000000002

3qcDP9mwffdgOycSnVIX

{"NO": 199.99999999999923, "YES": 50.00000000000019}

0.7999999999999989

will-andrey-belousov-still-be-the-m

179.9513087346388

Will Andrey Belousov still be the Minister of Defence of Russia on January 1, 2025?

1735772340000

TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715637012519

Tomek ⚡ K

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F-pVEBLutLg.png?alt=media&token=541757d8-902c-46df-a0e6-dfc01a1033ed", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.036829055443549, "platformFee": 2.036829055443549, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

itsTomekK

1716199580336

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c

5

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…db940ee8b1a7.jpg

1658666303973

0

[{"name": "Tomek's 🟡 specials", "slug": "tomeks-specials", "groupId": "Tnqa2ZTn9jMpD7wSBWGJ", "createdTime": 1715637013158}, {"name": "⚔️ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1715637013163}, {"name": "2023", "slug": "2023", "groupId": "gZzXrh7GRVauC1APahTT", "createdTime": 171563701...

["tomeks-specials", "wars", "2023", "leaders", "russia"]

0.25

0.5

1716199577008

0

0.7851207780568016

ddnFjBFfOh2ZRtXxdklJ

{"NO": 4218.662273428564, "YES": 642.2521483853221}

1

will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w

152271.32961487566

Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI during WWDC 2024?

1718047578477

brEHeVfwNxdHIZ0cF4B3JsNnU212

cpmm-1

0

10.017819939072126

True

basic

YES

public

1715637955009

Predict

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves positively if Apple announces a partnership with OpenAI on the main keynote of WWDC 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There must be a partnership regarding some product or service...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.13152501151430263}

0

{"creatorFee": 1403.0524442810463, "platformFee": 472.02524597262243, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1718047578477

1000

Predict

1718049198707

0

https://firebasestorage.…26e-437e1b348c8e

148

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…74d3f3c46fa5.jpg

1674173931553

0

[{"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1715637955422}, {"name": "📱 WWDC 2024", "slug": "-wwdc-2024", "groupId": "49de1328-c259-49f7-addf-87115e888927", "createdTime": 1715637955423}, {"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTim...

["openai", "-wwdc-2024", "apple", "technology-default", "ai"]

0.25

0.5

1718046877532

1718049196995

0.96

brEHeVfwNxdHIZ0cF4B3JsNnU212

0

0.6478803019114212

7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ

{"NO": 110641.10375806411, "YES": 34680.74018666787}

1

will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f

1873551.6095512449

Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?

1718047564959

brEHeVfwNxdHIZ0cF4B3JsNnU212

cpmm-1

0

0.817653240675509

True

plus

YES

public

1715638228623

Predict

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves positively if Apple announces that OpenAI will partner with them on Siri. The question still resolves positively even if few details are provided regarding the partnership. An official statement during the main keynote of WWDC 2024 is need...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.2813632134635935}

0

{"creatorFee": 21294.500278318603, "platformFee": 21294.500278318603, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1718047564959

52200

Predict

1718985635276

0

https://firebasestorage.…26e-437e1b348c8e

1351

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…c8639f4b6ff0.jpg

1674173931553

0

[{"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1715638229163}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1715638229196}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715638229195}, {"name": "�...

["apple", "openai", "ai", "technology-default"]

0.25

0.5

1718047553672

1718900641593

0.85

brEHeVfwNxdHIZ0cF4B3JsNnU212

0

0.49999999999999817

CsTBNaRDMzqqqEQEFBMq

{"NO": 838.8560677882051, "YES": 11.920996204231827}

1

will-jimmy-carter-be-alive-at-the-e-46e6d7e55659

5466.501084011422

Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on May 14?

1715749140000

ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1715638280507

Jimmy Carter Death Markets

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will be changing to adjust to the pivot. Details soon.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jimmy ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 15.820352884941181, "platformFee": 15.820352884941181, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715752990120

100

JCDM

1715749140000

0

https://firebasestorage.…31d-01d8ae732bec

36

0

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…400b823f0fb6.jpg

1703455433441

0

[{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1715638281364}, {"name": "Public Figures", "slug": "public-figures", "groupId": "sIbESq9CYGTy9yeah6Tg", "createdTime": 1715638281464}, {"name": "Jimmy Carter", "slug": "jimmy-carter", "groupId": "rig...

["entertainment", "public-figures", "jimmy-carter", "longevity", "jimmy-carter-daily"]

0.25

0.5

1715747286961

0.99

ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1

0

EpPchaorg71bU8OFae8k

when-donovan-clingan-be-drafted

1433.9769121540476

When will Donovan Clingan be drafted ?

1719505537272

BYGxdu40OjPyDJ3PhIRm0EKY1yc2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

MKT

public

1715638584050

Chinmay The Math Guy

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 7.966063781829226, "platformFee": 2.1893379501950094, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719505537272

125

ChinmayTheMathGuy

1719505537272

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZq896I_Ax8LGfe5H_KMzO98z8XRF1EV3Jg9qYo=s96-c

7

3

ANYONE

[{"id": "7b1258cd15fc", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Top 1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.512594538148022, "userId": "BYGxdu40OjPyDJ3PhIRm0EKY1yc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 248.74685927665467, "textFts": "'1':2 'top':1", "contractId": "EpPchaorg71bU8OFae8k", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "BYGxdu40OjPyDJ3PhIRm0EKY1yc2", "...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…fb227b9f9b40.jpg

1677787177859

0

[{"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime": 1715638584457}, {"name": "2024 NBA Draft", "slug": "2024-nba-draft", "groupId": "b85881f4-3068-431b-bd0f-763e033f5c16", "createdTime": 1715638584469}]

["nba", "2024-nba-draft"]

0.25

1719449522760

0.99

BYGxdu40OjPyDJ3PhIRm0EKY1yc2

False

0

0.5000000000000001

4DIPfKyHiluR3Oi3BGI8

{"NO": 147.37829137479534, "YES": 67.85259828103966}

0.6847450735833535

does-an-overstimulation-of-the-endo

58.038114664868175

Does an overstimulation of the endocannabinoid system cause a downregulation of cannabinoid receptors?

1839905940000

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715639556848

Keenen W

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/news/cannabinoid-hyperemesis-syndrome", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/cannabinoid-hyperemesis-syndrome", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoratio...

BINARY

{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.8087367465743375, "platformFee": 0.8087367465743375, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

KeenenW

1715643371579

0

https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb

3

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…14ccf8f9c002.jpg

1697247005528

0

[{"name": "Research", "slug": "research", "groupId": "fbd2df80-ae0e-443f-b3e7-627747c12873", "createdTime": 1715639557197}, {"name": "⚕️ Medicine", "slug": "medicine", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1715639557193}, {"name": "🫀 Health", "slug": "health", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTim...

["research", "medicine", "health", "cannabis", "science-default"]

0.25

0.5

1715643368247

1715642341449

0

0.49999999999999956

FnFjG1O7to08e02okXSN

{"NO": 332.6574049020553, "YES": 30.06095716686153}

0.9171231448129721

will-anthropic-google-or-facebook-r

314.7730638153779

Will Anthropic, Google, or Facebook release a capable LLM that can process realtime audio like GPT-4o within 6 months?

1715658994206

FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

CANCEL

public

1715641333267

Savior of Plant

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Whether a model is \"capable\" is a subjective call, but something like Llama-7B would not count, whereas something closer to GPT-3.5 would. I will ask a mod to resolve N/A if one of these companies already has a model that does this that I am not ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.228712859134428, "platformFee": 2.228712859134428, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715658994206

100

SaviorofPlant

1715658994206

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c

10

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…d07564823a3d.jpg

1698371327350

0

[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1715641333620}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1715641333631}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9...

["technology-default", "technical-ai-timelines", "openai", "ai", "gpt4o"]

0.25

0.5

1715654660119

1715657997050

0.92

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

0

0.13999999999999999

kV8PdYHzSUA6UPSyAX56

{"NO": 103.77697187228891, "YES": 79.63314957518983}

0.17501748202337253

will-the-basic-reasons-i-expect-agi

4

Will "The basic reasons I expect AGI ruin" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

1738368000000

h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715642843877

Less Wrong

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.11151406385554428, "platformFee": 0.11151406385554428, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

LessWrong

1715643457498

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c

1

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…1c97364a9ffc.jpg

1706554674237

0

[{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1715642844433}]

["lesswrong-annual-review"]

0.25

0.14

1715643454223

0

0.4999999999999997

mg1tKBnSNlpUSoXT4MeF

{"NO": 21.546775962492063, "YES": 464.1065567028537}

0

nba-playoffs-game-4-boston-celtics-f1881e986ab0

978.2129553841785

NBA Playoffs: Game 4 Boston Celtics Vs Cleveland Cavaliers: Will Boston Score More Points During The 4th Quarter?

1715650219640

63I0ceD7FEPXr8C2GQNAG2FpXhb2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1715645708896

Haribo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes if Boston scores more points than Cleveland during the 4th quarter.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No if Boston scores less points than Cleveland during the 4th quarter.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.201641421334427, "platformFee": 9.201641421334427, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715650219640

100

Haribo

1715650219640

0

https://firebasestorage.…c7f-e96e7084fcfd

5

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…ddc55619b544.jpg

1715590848992

0

[{"name": "NBA Playoffs", "slug": "nba-playoffs", "groupId": "8f8bc28b-e3cc-4cb4-885f-6486002430f1", "createdTime": 1715645709283}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime": 1715645709296}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "create...

["nba-playoffs", "nba", "sports-default", "20232024-nba-season"]

0.25

0.5

1715650184034

0.04

63I0ceD7FEPXr8C2GQNAG2FpXhb2

0

Zdr9QzAiD4xHyQBVYU1T

who-will-win-all-group-games-at-the

34124.82631526773

Which countries will win all of their group games at the Euro 2024?

1719435435810

dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

MKT

public

1715646089689

Base

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All Countries that win all Group Games will resolve to yes", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 204.5692975460586, "platformFee": 35.13365736080767, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719435439481

1000

Base

1719435435810

0

https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137

61

8

DISABLED

[{"id": "2ba69bd7f90a", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Germany", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.262498461154792, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 388.6322937937868, "textFts": "'germani':1", "contractId": "Zdr9QzAiD4xHyQBVYU1T", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "c...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…c98cb42670cb.jpg

1690298751650

0

[{"name": "Euros 2024", "slug": "euros-2024", "groupId": "yPULnjpON1JQRT0FTlEL", "createdTime": 1715646090288}, {"name": "UEFA", "slug": "uefa", "groupId": "KSvOrWRB2hyHWfU4GnM9", "createdTime": 1715646090296}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1715646912589}, {"na...

["euros-2024", "uefa", "soccer", "football", "europe"]

0.25

1719434972180

1715700418986

0

dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22

False

dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22

0

0.4999999999999992

OFMtI5MGMPcG6Mmc2p5p

{"NO": 794.9538750526443, "YES": 12.579346190793444}

1

will-gme-hit-50-by-end-of-may-17th

998.2494727758772

Will $GME hit $50 by end of May 17th?

1715699480840

cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1715646406853

Dan

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "GameStop (GME) has been a symbol of extreme market volatility since its meteoric rise in early 2021, driven by retail investors from Reddit's WallStreetBets.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "GM...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.568758335339732, "platformFee": 4.568758335339732, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715699480840

100

DanMan314

1715699480840

0

https://firebasestorage.…9e0-a993f643533a

5

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…3854612d0881.jpg

1673046794414

0

0.25

0.5

1715696061163

0.98

cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1

0

0.5

maN7mMdOWjc1PT9Wmdmw

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

will-gamestop-gme-stock-crash-again

0

Will Gamestop GME stock crash again before the end of May 17?

1715646505835

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

CANCEL

public

1715646478579

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715646505835

100

strutheo

1715646505835

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…9807dba5fd11.jpg

1700846926650

True

0

0.25

0.5

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

0

IUjlKqQmfMY2jgDSj3Y5

will-developments-in-llms-will-be-b

0

Will developments in LLMs be boring and iterative from now on?

1716292740000

OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133

none

0

1000000

True

public

1715647906777

jim

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716292741165

jim

1716252686828

0

https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f

29

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…c7ef549a8613.jpg

1690863320225

0

[{"name": "GPT-4 speculation", "slug": "gpt4-speculation", "groupId": "SWiC5KtQnc48oWmaoAZA", "createdTime": 1715647907081}, {"name": "GPT-5 Speculation", "slug": "gpt5-speculation", "groupId": "XjoIQCNrsc4HP3H3DdTP", "createdTime": 1715647907085}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGk...

["gpt4-speculation", "gpt5-speculation", "openai", "ai", "technology-default"]

0.25

1715708455142

["cbd02d2692c3"]

0

0.5

mAuJoIwoYg74HJ1DwkdD

{"NO": 148.63083811569874, "YES": 67.28078860872532}

0.6883873757544411

does-cannabidiol-cbd-aggravate-cann

71.29242968865714

Does Cannabidiol (CBD) aggravate Cannabinoid Hyperemesis Syndrome (CHS) symptoms?

1810875540000

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715647912905

Keenen W

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Cannabinoid Hyperemesis Syndrome (CHS) is thought to be caused by an overstimulation, downregulation or both of the endocannabinoid system. Compounds such as Tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) are thought to be the primary cause of CHS due to the way they ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.7229470399726965, "platformFee": 0.3537851556714379, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

KeenenW

1717278966616

0

https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb

2

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…8a21cd5fd68f.jpg

1697247005528

0

[{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1715647913226}, {"name": "⚕️ Medicine", "slug": "medicine", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1715647913229}, {"name": "Cannabinoid Hyperemesis Syndrome", "slug": "cannabinoid-hyperemesis-syndrome", "gro...

["science-default", "medicine", "cannabinoid-hyperemesis-syndrome", "research", "cannabis"]

0.25

0.5

1717278963389

0

0.49999999999999994

zNSG6OdapGyDBb4FsqCD

{"NO": 130.48765086025205, "YES": 76.63560447348137}

1

will-google-respond-to-openais-anno

100.52358044563398

Will Google respond to OpenAI’s announcement of GPT-4o by releasing a new feature or model on May 14th?

1715713450138

oo1E5R26RIaZWekjwf88Kd5IOin1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1715648552635

Michael L

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.7786870599455404, "platformFee": 1.7786870599455404, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715713450138

100

MichaelL

1715713450138

0

https://firebasestorage.…b4b-df76866ba7e0

6

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…4d6cd0196a8c.jpg

1703683338506

0

[{"name": "GPT-4 speculation", "slug": "gpt4-speculation", "groupId": "SWiC5KtQnc48oWmaoAZA", "createdTime": 1715648552939}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1715648552943}, {"name": "ChatGPT", "slug": "chatgpt", "groupId": "lG71NUBORXAsxGmQZo77", "createdTime": ...

["gpt4-speculation", "openai", "chatgpt", "google-gemini"]

0.25

0.5

1715713209416

0.63

oo1E5R26RIaZWekjwf88Kd5IOin1

0

0.4999999999999996

zsVbG6SfaH9ncO2trfD4

{"NO": 313.4865799055518, "YES": 31.899292157938117}

1

will-us-april-2024-monthly-core-cpi

1622.8489171897822

Will US April 2024 monthly core CPI rise less than 0.30%?

1715782218362

YaQuXDOPQ1Uvsfme2Up1K9pI7FG3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1715648596752

Krypton

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 13.452669053186291, "platformFee": 13.452669053186291, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715782218362

100

Krypton

1715782509816

0

https://firebasestorage.…367-9c72fe74bf31

13

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…e60c7e24eb99.jpg

1693393975510

0

[{"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1715648597059}, {"name": "Inflation", "slug": "inflation", "groupId": "OiDJ9KX5mar9H1asXCUa", "createdTime": 1715648597067}, {"name": "US Economy", "slug": "us-economy", "groupId": "36d1e8d5-2e36-481d-b3e0-42e53c37ecbb", "created...

["stocks", "inflation", "us-economy"]

0.25

0.5

1715782210417

1715782508351

0.91

YaQuXDOPQ1Uvsfme2Up1K9pI7FG3

0

0.5

1u9zbsX0D1mGLhMp0ga8

{"NO": 36.775139651266755, "YES": 271.9228287051669}

0

nba-playoffs-game-4-oklahoma-city-t

175

NBA Playoffs: Game 4 Oklahoma City Thunder Vs Dallas Mavericks: Will Oklahoma City Thunder Lead After Quarter 1?

1715652581517

63I0ceD7FEPXr8C2GQNAG2FpXhb2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1715649271991

Haribo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes if Oklahoma City Thunder leads at end of 1st quarter.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No if Oklahoma City Thunder is losing at end of 1st quarter.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"tex...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.5385856474165416, "platformFee": 1.5385856474165416, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715652581517

100

Haribo

1715652581517

0

https://firebasestorage.…c7f-e96e7084fcfd

1

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…1f88afa4d0f0.jpg

1715590848992

0

[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1715649272325}, {"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b559-4202-b3be-d1dffecbdecd", "createdTime": 1715649272327}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpc...

["sports-default", "20232024-nba-season", "nba", "nba-playoffs"]

0.25

0.5

1715651565742

0.12

63I0ceD7FEPXr8C2GQNAG2FpXhb2

0

0.5

1UYtGVTgQDNCsocFUlyU

{"NO": 39.879317701990736, "YES": 250.75654690804325}

0

nba-playoffs-game-4-oklahoma-city-t-801c609d42e9

184

NBA Playoffs: Game 4 Oklahoma City Thunder Vs Dallas Mavericks: Will Oklahoma Score More Points During The 2nd Quarter?

1715654576769

63I0ceD7FEPXr8C2GQNAG2FpXhb2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1715649403114

Haribo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes if Oklahoma City Thunder scores more points than Dallas Mavericks during the 2nd quarter.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No if Oklahoma City Thunder scores less points than Dallas Mavericks during the 2nd q...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.7569203929488977, "platformFee": 1.7569203929488977, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715654576769

100

Haribo

1715654576769

0

https://firebasestorage.…c7f-e96e7084fcfd

2

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…3f1678113099.jpg

1715590848992

0

[{"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime": 1715649403416}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1715649403433}, {"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b559-4202-b3be-d1dffec...

["nba", "sports-default", "20232024-nba-season", "nba-playoffs"]

0.25

0.5

1715654559830

0.14

63I0ceD7FEPXr8C2GQNAG2FpXhb2

0

0.5000000000000001

repiW91miOmm1KLIAC6r

{"NO": 220.9604702469752, "YES": 45.256963785525315}

1

nba-playoffs-game-4-oklahoma-city-t-cd83fcaeb8fd

155.0593353228165

NBA Playoffs: Game 4 Oklahoma City Thunder Vs Dallas Mavericks: Will Oklahoma Score More Points During The 3rd Quarter?

1715657647098

63I0ceD7FEPXr8C2GQNAG2FpXhb2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1715649542642

Haribo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes if Oklahoma City Thunder scores more points than Dallas Mavericks during the 3rd quarter.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No if Oklahoma City Thunder scores less points than Dallas Mavericks during the 3rd q...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.624207172024851, "platformFee": 1.624207172024851, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715657647098

100

Haribo

1715657647098

0

https://firebasestorage.…c7f-e96e7084fcfd

2

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…64512622493f.jpg

1715590848992

0

[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1715649543012}, {"name": "NBA Playoffs", "slug": "nba-playoffs", "groupId": "8f8bc28b-e3cc-4cb4-885f-6486002430f1", "createdTime": 1715649543021}, {"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId"...

["sports-default", "nba-playoffs", "20232024-nba-season", "nba"]

0.25

0.5

1715657506660

0.83

63I0ceD7FEPXr8C2GQNAG2FpXhb2

0

0.5000000000000001

6QbI3kJHFIce8kQFGLzw

{"NO": 437.90164402206153, "YES": 22.83617825261284}

1

nba-playoffs-game-4-oklahoma-city-t-defdb4bd6453

397.20960926900057

NBA Playoffs: Game 4 Oklahoma City Thunder Vs Dallas Mavericks: Will Oklahoma Score More Points During The 4th Quarter?

1715660328113

63I0ceD7FEPXr8C2GQNAG2FpXhb2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1715649600505

Haribo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes if Oklahoma City Thunder scores more points than Dallas Mavericks during the 4th quarter.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No if Oklahoma City Thunder scores less points than Dallas Mavericks during the 4th q...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.4443733544689814, "platformFee": 2.4443733544689814, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715660328113

100

Haribo

1715660328113

0

https://firebasestorage.…c7f-e96e7084fcfd

1

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…610b0dd5e140.jpg

1715590848992

0

[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1715649600842}, {"name": "NBA Playoffs", "slug": "nba-playoffs", "groupId": "8f8bc28b-e3cc-4cb4-885f-6486002430f1", "createdTime": 1715649600853}, {"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId"...

["sports-default", "nba-playoffs", "20232024-nba-season", "nba"]

0.25

0.5

1715660139234

0.95

63I0ceD7FEPXr8C2GQNAG2FpXhb2

0

WO46NsLuyeclPjwqC3Cd

what-russiaukraine-situation-is-mos

0

What Russia-Ukraine war situation will most likely occur by the end of the year?

1735689540000

ISsml4SsfjSEBncvMgIxkKhcDhE2

none

0

1000000

False

public

1715650106698

Lamin

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Poll ends 31.12.2024", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "With the Russian invasion of Ukraine first occurring on the 20th of Feburary 2022, the invasion has slowed to a near halt since then. ", "t...

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

TalesFromTheBasement

1715655745123

0

https://firebasestorage.…ee0-d2fd74af5636

15

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…6020048e8cb0.jpg

1715641941839

0

[{"name": "Russia Ukraine", "slug": "russia-ukraine", "groupId": "c5ac8679-20e1-416b-8dc0-eb7716120a91", "createdTime": 1715650106935}, {"name": "⚔️ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1715650106937}, {"name": "🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "O...

["russia-ukraine", "wars", "ukrainerussia-war", "ukraine"]

0.25

0

0.49999999999999994

XXvGNdqxZJ6M8ArmVWVx

{"NO": 84.97647939825723, "YES": 117.67962230034557}

0.4193136978655456

serbia-gets-invite-to-join-brics-be

79

Serbia gets invite to join BRICS before 1 Dec 2024?

1733093940000

JbR42honqBfz9TCHnHk0JGERPit2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715650442148

$aturation

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(BRICS 16th summit will be held 22-24 Oct 2024 in Russia.)", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0.056946698025145626, "week": 0.056946698025145626, "month": 0.017203371914063736}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.5951614142769412, "platformFee": 0.8994387663333685, "liquidityFee": 0}

10

100

smokey

1720190629784

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKqNxgPFHnX0iy5ad3wtLe11iFMhuFJfWYG6Cpg1vnJvoewVQ=s96-c

6

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…425d9733681a.jpg

1715451118302

0

[{"name": "🇷🇺 Russia", "slug": "russia", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1715650442400}, {"name": "🇨🇳 China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1715650442419}, {"name": "BRICS", "slug": "brics", "groupId": "an8AXzMHVvWyECyQ4ukd", "createdTime": 1715650442425}, {"na...

["russia", "china", "brics", "serbia"]

0.25

0.5

1720190626664

0

0.15436144649130307

F6TXnrA6K4pjTcfETRly

{"NO": 1161.0323858726274, "YES": 361.50161421548955}

0.3695851929811125

will-china-recreate-gpt4o-by-eoy-20

885.1602554867892

Will China recreate GPT-4o by EOY 2024?

1735707540000

8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3

cpmm-1

0

9.791373404639533

False

basic

public

1715652408787

Sss

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Text, audio input-output, vision input-output all need to be at a similar level. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "GPT-4o-0513", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", ...

BINARY

{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 0.2009301257622119, "month": 0.24093979613990402}

0

{"creatorFee": 16.836697252587097, "platformFee": 3.674517081975542, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Sss19971997

1720023960756

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJYstjF0shAAXTwqQnhiZPJhmg3XSDaVGD2Kttp_TCF=s96-c

19

2

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…3b82ab61a2cc.jpg

1696879998283

0

[{"name": "GPT-5 Speculation", "slug": "gpt5-speculation", "groupId": "XjoIQCNrsc4HP3H3DdTP", "createdTime": 1715652409096}, {"name": "GPT-4 speculation", "slug": "gpt4-speculation", "groupId": "SWiC5KtQnc48oWmaoAZA", "createdTime": 1715652409097}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "cre...

["gpt5-speculation", "gpt4-speculation", "ai"]

0.25

0.5

1720023957686

1718518763801

0

hyNdqbUgZr9ctl7labkI

what-descriptions-of-gpt4o-will-a-m

2267.742430797585

What descriptions of GPT-4o will a majority of manifold users think are accurate?

1716101940000

JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

MKT

public

1715653119852

Joshua

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Buy YES in options you think are accurate enough to resolve a market on, but NO in options you think are not. Buying even 1 mana is enough to count as a vote and help us resolve the market more accurately.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 18.367581118766843, "platformFee": 18.367581118766843, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716129156912

1000

Joshua

1716101940000

0

https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f

59

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "4a429f2d63e2", "prob": 0.38, "text": "GPT-4o is \"a successor to GPT-4 in the way that GPT-3.5 was a successor to GPT-3\"", "index": 0, "poolNo": 19.572034031470338, "userId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 31.933318682925282, "textFts": "'-3':21 '-3.5':15 '-4':9 '4o':3 'gpt':2,8,...

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…09f6b366d056.jpg

1645516283433

0

[{"name": "ChatGPT", "slug": "chatgpt", "groupId": "lG71NUBORXAsxGmQZo77", "createdTime": 1715653120533}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1715653120601}, {"name": "GPT-4", "slug": "gpt4", "groupId": "eBnKor4XWTFwJQA6TOpd", "createdTime": 1715653120604}, {"name":...

["chatgpt", "openai", "gpt4", "technology-default", "ai"]

0.25

1716095691808

1715701220507

0.91

JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2

False

0

XOFBtvjUPFcdOmTH1aoR

which-countries-will-take-their-flr

25

Which countries will win their first-ever Olympic 🥇🥈🥉 medal this summer?

1723496340000

nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715653895561

Gaz Downright

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Underdog market!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Several countries have yet to win a medal at an Olympics.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.38651555435246787, "platformFee": 0.38651555435246787, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

150

GazDownright

1717755787577

0

https://firebasestorage.…03d-44c57f8e25b1

1

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "cb388b1a3a0d", "prob": 0.41233779882259525, "text": "🇦🇱 Albania", "color": "#f44336", "index": 0, "poolNo": 20.941254943511034, "userId": "nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 29.845393778259012, "textFts": "'albania':1", "contractId": "XOFBtvjUPFcdOmTH1aoR", "createdTime": 17156538955...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…ba8f22c98855.jpg

1697568039966

0

[{"name": "2024 Summer Olympics", "slug": "2024-summer-olympics", "groupId": "q6FVZCgJy5BrIrMvIlXM", "createdTime": 1715653895940}, {"name": "Olympics", "slug": "olympics", "groupId": "WdIYm7PwGLqo1N1zVtEF", "createdTime": 1715653895969}, {"name": "Paris 2024", "slug": "paris-2024", "groupId": "a52dcbc5-b87d-4c85-86d4-...

["2024-summer-olympics", "olympics", "paris-2024", "whales-vs-minnows"]

0.25

1715705132111

1715689520297

False

prob-desc

0

hCFvbgtN5ydJubZfYcFQ

who-will-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-e

23198.46292741156

Who will be the top goalscorer at EURO 2024?

1720994340000

dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1715654643900

Base

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 179.15157729516233, "platformFee": 26.83134350771111, "liquidityFee": 0}

2158.1829109874357

2700

Base

1720240905769

0

https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137

46

8

ANYONE

[{"id": "140aa11bea2b", "prob": 0.070300533119387, "text": "Kylian Mbappe", "index": 0, "poolNo": 58.71308893795111, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 776.4596520459949, "textFts": "'kylian':1 'mbapp':2", "contractId": "hCFvbgtN5ydJubZfYcFQ", "createdTime": 1715654643900, "probChang...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…8f5bbabdc95d.jpg

1690298751650

0

[{"name": "Europe", "slug": "europe", "groupId": "ue52QI4BQgJgAJJNjLHr", "createdTime": 1715654644281}, {"name": "Euros 2024", "slug": "euros-2024", "groupId": "yPULnjpON1JQRT0FTlEL", "createdTime": 1715654644286}, {"name": "UEFA", "slug": "uefa", "groupId": "KSvOrWRB2hyHWfU4GnM9", "createdTime": 1715654644288}, {"name...

["europe", "euros-2024", "uefa", "football", "soccer"]

0.25

1720240902328

1720229877745

True

0

0.5000000000000003

sQKgoaQEZayieNoPb4ht

{"NO": 10.896019267865672, "YES": 917.76636532682}

0

will-we-discover-that-the-prompt-us

2139.9432017621016

Will we discover that the prompt used by ChatGPT-4o on launch day includes some mention of the movie "Her"?

1718251140000

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1715654957023

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A default prompt is the initial set of instructions or context that guides an AI language model's responses. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Understanding if the ChatGPT-4o launch day prompt ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.02000000000000002}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.118639548461384, "platformFee": 2.821916575722788, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1718303632402

100

FranklinBaldo

1718251140000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

14

0

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…50e932cfefa1.jpg

1659579722296

0

[{"name": "ChatGPT", "slug": "chatgpt", "groupId": "lG71NUBORXAsxGmQZo77", "createdTime": 1715654957373}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715654957362}, {"name": "GPT-4o", "slug": "gpt4o", "groupId": "9c3a6cba-7016-4fe5-b895-b83529f50e78", "createdTime": 1715654957384}...

["chatgpt", "ai", "gpt4o"]

0.25

0.5

1718245706987

1718302825736

0.01

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

0

0.45800412028247406

YVr252lYlPuedckln7Hk

{"NO": 131.41863740603776, "YES": 10994.248640928914}

0

will-this-25-carat-yellow-diamond-r

10047.493957904928

Will this 25 carat yellow diamond ring sell for >$2 million at its upcoming Bonhams auction? (pic included)

1716730594232

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

cpmm-1

0

10.106349148388695

True

basic

NO

public

1715655159434

Ziddletwix

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Bonhams auction house in Hong Kong is about to auction off a very valuable diamond ring. Link:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "FINE FANCY VIVID YELLOW DIAMOND AND DIAMOND RING", "type": "t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 52.45286253044116, "platformFee": 0.7924544455734256, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716730594232

1000

Ziddletwix

1716730652687

0

https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96

2

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…5d10f42d18b4.jpg

1680369520541

0

[{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1715655159730}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1715655159729}, {"name": "Arts", "slug": "arts", "groupId": "rvlLWOxULpzwHIaMDe...

["entertainment", "economics-default", "arts", "culture-default", "science-default"]

0.25

0.5

1716730574486

1716730651313

0.01

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

0

0.5

P4NRsY09TfqVV6WY8gUa

{"NO": 142.48870236980298, "YES": 70.1810026597537}

0.67

will-alpharad-do-a-vtuber-stream-th

53.038114664868175

Will Alpharad do a Vtuber stream this year?

1735707540000

305OB8gmIYSfaoLTd6KmOj24BEw1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715655298249

Michelle Hao

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As long as Alpharad does anything where his voice is filtered through a Vtuber model by the end of Dec 31 2024 this will resolve YES. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise NO.", "type": "...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.7535312490705207, "platformFee": 0.7535312490705207, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

MichelleHao

1715655323646

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJnokUHTEW35fCYnKoF2nCK6DjYUlr4f9XnHgeRnb_xjaI=s96-c

2

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…6c338216e1ae.jpg

1695464274248

0

[{"name": "Twitch", "slug": "twitch", "groupId": "VTvoakLdTRfbosPA4BGZ", "createdTime": 1715655298543}, {"name": "YouTube", "slug": "youtube", "groupId": "bbIsp5bNcwHpSK9qu9mj", "createdTime": 1715655298547}, {"name": "Twitch Streamers", "slug": "twitch-streamers", "groupId": "63c4fdb6-43af-4c83-af65-dc9c0d9f3949", "cr...

["twitch", "youtube", "twitch-streamers"]

0.25

0.5

1715655320456

0

e4ekHsg3VCRJVd71i5Sl

who-will-be-the-first-public-figure

1930.0467665591705

Who will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own)

1925020740000

etEkYCPEe5emmK4vvbR30H7i5982

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715655463860

Max Harms

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To qualify, a person must be well known before making claims about AI personhood (e.g. Blake Lemoine doesn't count). The figure must be prominent in the English-speaking world (i.e. all the criteria are English specific). The figure must also:", "t...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 17.934076845127585, "platformFee": 15.670489289013492, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

MaxHarms

1717886886451

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL0xedDuqyhLuCxjkkUd0pH8wOEEFh2BRRMNMgrdTzG1EU=s96-c

49

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "c1a98475a540", "prob": 0.04377082493479973, "text": "Grimes", "index": 0, "poolNo": 19.19282711678558, "userId": "etEkYCPEe5emmK4vvbR30H7i5982", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 419.2916461682139, "textFts": "'grime':1", "contractId": "e4ekHsg3VCRJVd71i5Sl", "createdTime": 1715655463860, "probChanges": {"day": 0, ...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…7da32aaf114f.jpg

1698589418030

0

[{"name": "Ethics", "slug": "ethics", "groupId": "8423af51-efe9-4061-82de-f61c3ebeac6a", "createdTime": 1715655464253}, {"name": "🧠 Philosophy", "slug": "philosophy-af8706ce1d7e", "groupId": "fxiwfHfrTmac3tKJyehm", "createdTime": 1715655464254}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "creat...

["ethics", "philosophy-af8706ce1d7e", "ai", "consciousness"]

0.25

1717886883097

1715659292379

True

0

0.4136328528426964

UMDwz4w1HsgPohZYCXtA

{"NO": 7673.862141869835, "YES": 54.67945710942877}

1

will-this-hideous-hermes-handbag-se

7527.6025306710435

Will this (hideous) Hermès handbag sell for >$42,069 at its upcoming Sotheby's auction? (pic included)

1716475431736

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

cpmm-1

0

9.539856564841191

True

basic

YES

public

1715657416369

Ziddletwix

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Sotheby's auction house in Zurich is about to auction off a very valuable designer handbag. Link:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hermès. Limited Edition Bleu Royal, Nata, Gold and Bleu In...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 44.06965212350741, "platformFee": 26.658049655002127, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716475431736

1000

Ziddletwix

1716500997445

0

https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96

25

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…37e9d694710d.jpg

1680369520541

0

[{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1715657417098}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1715657417100}, {"name": "Arts", "slug": "arts", "groupId": "rvlLWOxULpzwHIaMDePa",...

["entertainment", "culture-default", "arts", "science-default", "economics-default"]

0.25

0.5

1716468351248

1716500993507

0.99

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

0

0.5

2BAH7MUvyu2FO43UNj9g

{"NO": 119.29448791135813, "YES": 83.82616980116066}

0.5873084956243018

will-one-of-the-top-10-highest-gros

115

Will one of the top 10 highest grossing movies of 2024 be from China?

1735804740000

Fz12fyQzT0cnfaSp2iOYvLsYmTi1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715658883630

Andrew Smith

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.8671169692504286, "platformFee": 1.8671169692504286, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

asmith

1715716462078

0

https://firebasestorage.…a0f-d901653a5912

7

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…68c8c7d7af45.jpg

1672111268287

0

[{"name": "Box-Office", "slug": "boxoffice", "groupId": "IbCVuDeG5LtAeh5NcH0w", "createdTime": 1715658884176}, {"name": "🎥 Movies", "slug": "movies", "groupId": "KSeNIu7AWgiBBM5FqVuB", "createdTime": 1715658884179}, {"name": "🇨🇳 China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1715658884178...

["boxoffice", "movies", "china", "entertainment"]

0.25

0.5

1715716458778

1715700627202

0

0.30334474850036486

RtqWahA53xW6RuLCTD2k

{"NO": 3379.3344853698286, "YES": 3720.0662628224095}

0.28343555351193217

openai-will-launch-an-audio-only-sm

4002.8894399869323

OpenAI will launch an audio only smart home device in the next twelve months

1747292340000

HrlMPCBLX8RhVpC7apPKeNCMxyn2

cpmm-1

0

5.538657680699708

False

basic

public

1715659150636

ColinD

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Inspired by this tweet: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1790228739306979478"}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if OpenAI releases an audio only smart device before May 14, 2025. ", "...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.00388310987109719}

0

{"creatorFee": 58.43169629434079, "platformFee": 36.11535093944747, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

3500

ColinD

1718033409473

0

https://firebasestorage.…30d-9fcc7e8a1e81

80

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…ed7c94358401.jpg

1711337772464

0

[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1715659150939}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715659150929}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 17156591...

["technology-default", "ai", "openai"]

0.25

0.5

1718033406360

1715841147016

0

0.48326692804964255

QeQY0i33yYXXFFcrLlgV

{"NO": 2140.6335442471377, "YES": 2949.7007284678616}

1

game-5-will-colorado-avalanche-beat

466

(Game 5) Will Colorado Avalanche beat Dallas Stars on May 15 (NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs)

1715817600000

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

cpmm-1

0

6.41575353763509

True

basic

YES

public

1715661172636

Keenen W

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dallas leads the series is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "3-1", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nhl.com/playoffs/2024/bracket", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:dec...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.0159395810989995, "platformFee": 7.0159395810989995, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715829359179

2500

KeenenW

1715817600000

0

https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb

5

0

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…0b10621e1e8d.jpg

1697247005528

0

[{"name": "NHL 🏒", "slug": "nhl", "groupId": "lccgApXa1l7O5ZH3XfhH", "createdTime": 1715661174391}, {"name": "Hockey", "slug": "hockey", "groupId": "tYP9jmPPjoX29KfzE4l5", "createdTime": 1715661174396}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1715661174395}, ...

["nhl", "hockey", "culture-default", "sports-default", "sports-betting"]

0.25

0.5

1715814179400

0.4

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

0

0.5

X2cdEz4NniWuOFeFYgH8

{"NO": 56.15505885679036, "YES": 178.07834598664633}

0.23973975400445044

will-dalle3-switch-to-using-gpt4o-a

80

Will Dalle-3 switch to using gpt-4o as the rewriter, either always or as an option, by mid 2024?

1719817140000

kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715664984643

Ernie

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It would be so nice if that were the case.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.1725980448181448, "month": -0.1725980448181448}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.6124415698716807, "platformFee": 0.3092124434819743, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

Ernie

1719811549543

0

https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466

2

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…d056de2c9dd1.jpg

1668384110640

0

[{"name": "GPT-4o", "slug": "gpt4o", "groupId": "9c3a6cba-7016-4fe5-b895-b83529f50e78", "createdTime": 1715664985027}, {"name": "GPT-4 speculation", "slug": "gpt4-speculation", "groupId": "SWiC5KtQnc48oWmaoAZA", "createdTime": 1715664985028}, {"name": "GPT-4", "slug": "gpt4", "groupId": "eBnKor4XWTFwJQA6TOpd", "created...

["gpt4o", "gpt4-speculation", "gpt4"]

0.25

0.5

1719811546485

1719811487579

0

0.5

ecIjJ6ZPg1qyOWMUgEa7

{"NO": 42.04562890754333, "YES": 237.8368515307404}

0.1502260121523209

will-apple-primarily-compare-the-m4

158

Will Apple primarily compare the M4 MacBook to the M1?

1798790340000

R1FYWUk3bveksTL1k9kJCmuJjey1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715665774470

zaperrer

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " When Apple announced the M3 processor they primarily compared it to the M1, there were also some comparisons to the M2 but it was clear that Apple was primarily focused on advertising the relative performance to the M1.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type...

BINARY

{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.603183486383344, "platformFee": 1.603183486383344, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

zaperrer

1715783215433

0

https://firebasestorage.…0f8-44002cc485a0

6

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…dc0d9517b064.jpg

1681846792957

0

[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1715665774771}, {"name": "Computer hardware", "slug": "computer-hardware", "groupId": "33399837-c917-4655-bfe5-61341a014587", "createdTime": 1715665774776}, {"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "Ogtvg...

["technology-default", "computer-hardware", "apple"]

0.25

0.5

1715783212190

0

0.14

gk3EWyHnqwPbF11jSvXg

{"NO": 109.4582117253896, "YES": 57.39882493179003}

0.23689638866107932

will-i-hired-5-people-to-sit-behind

10

Will "I hired 5 people to sit behind me and make me..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

1738368000000

h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715666041454

Less Wrong

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...

BINARY

{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.27089413730519935, "platformFee": 0.27089413730519935, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

LessWrong

1715707192461

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c

1

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…7d4c8531f282.jpg

1706554674237

0

[{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1715666041839}]

["lesswrong-annual-review"]

0.25

0.14

1715707189180

0

0.5000000000000004

fWuA9ZvmQF90ByJzoDDx

{"NO": 99.99999999999991, "YES": 100.00000000000009}

0

daily-coinflip-7d99607da9a1

4970.740385495585

Daily coinflip

1715831940000

gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1715666297814

Traveel

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Day 149)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 37.81696351480067, "platformFee": 37.81696351480067, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715833754103

100

Traveel

1715831940000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c

92

0

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…6677ecc484b4.jpg

1674441975928

0

[{"name": "Non-Predictive Profits", "slug": "nonpredictive-profits", "groupId": "sVCyD10FvUk5af10QT6H", "createdTime": 1715666298117}, {"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1715666298115}, {"name": "Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac...

["nonpredictive-profits", "fairlyrandom", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"]

0.25

0.5

False

1715826566048

1715833741745

0.5

gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93

0

s2iTX1H7cLrDmmfjiUOq

if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-02f7a652452c

0

If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or The Master? (from Dr Who)

1718899522485

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

none

0

1000000

True

public

1715669363662

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX", "label": "/strutheo/who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1718899561109

strutheo

1718899524481

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

11

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…c7c2d38cff30.jpg

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1715669364078}]

["polls"]

0.25

1716406983105

["20c6d665d302"]

0

PQwvygBLXZdiHyZ6aYCI

if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-6bf62d24a438

0

If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Lee Harvey Oswald?

1717307544607

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

none

0

1000000

True

public

1715669382275

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX", "label": "/strutheo/who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717307581321

strutheo

1717307546229

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

32

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…593ee6311832.jpg

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1715669382645}]

["polls"]

0.25

1716393168331

["58efdd203c8c"]

0

S6EfiPva3g8mHvrPvu0F

what-will-be-the-top-5-leading-caus

0

What will be the top 5 leading causes of Death in the USA at the end of 2028?

1715669724825

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

CANCEL

public

1715669702455

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves 100% on the top 5 ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https:/...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715669724825

175

strutheo

1715669724825

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "b35c0e0b62b9", "prob": 0.14285714285714285, "text": "Heart Disease", "index": 0, "poolNo": 14.583333333333334, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 87.5, "textFts": "'diseas':2 'heart':1", "contractId": "S6EfiPva3g8mHvrPvu0F", "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "cre...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…bda5a8c5595d.jpg

1700846926650

True

0

[{"name": "🫀 Health", "slug": "health", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1715669702832}, {"name": "⚕️ Medicine", "slug": "medicine", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1715669702840}, {"name": "🪦 Death markets", "slug": "death-markets", "groupId": "ibrUJxhFICxDAsXYC7eB", "createdTime":...

["health", "medicine", "death-markets", "united-states", "public-health"]

0.25

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

True

0

aAW4t9HsUxGNhPloW6Yw

what-will-be-the-top-5-leading-caus-6e3df487887b

531.3433647729724

What will be the top 5 leading causes of Death in the USA at the end of 2028?

1861937940000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1715669747622

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves 100% on the top 5 ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2022 data for comparison", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.cdc.gov...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.692597972430202, "platformFee": 4.114165476501858, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

strutheo

1718555119705

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

15

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "7b65f7dd03a3", "prob": 0.9542998188710652, "text": "Heart Disease", "index": 0, "poolNo": 189.24138738741019, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.062524701017503, "textFts": "'diseas':2 'heart':1", "contractId": "aAW4t9HsUxGNhPloW6Yw", "createdTime": 1715669747622, "probCha...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…8063a8faa85f.jpg

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "🫀 Health", "slug": "health", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1715669748083}, {"name": "🪦 Death markets", "slug": "death-markets", "groupId": "ibrUJxhFICxDAsXYC7eB", "createdTime": 1715669748086}, {"name": "⚕️ Medicine", "slug": "medicine", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime":...

["health", "death-markets", "medicine", "public-health", "united-states"]

0.25

1718555116581

1715669983241

False

0

0.19363639288710432

GRi7mGaMM3eNIAIgcNWa

{"NO": 944.9636303855907, "YES": 1122.40197053138}

0.16817283237402764

will-cancer-kill-more-americans-tha

182.52352402114494

Will Cancer kill more people than Heart Disease in the USA in 2026?

1798779540000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

9.733171419187034

False

basic

public

1715669832186

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2022 Data for comparison", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ww...

BINARY

{"day": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "week": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "month": 1.6653345369377348e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.720367903480977, "platformFee": 1.720367903480977, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

strutheo

1715813355421

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

10

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…11716919b825.jpg

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "Public Health", "slug": "public-health", "groupId": "ybln6XDvz5ik7zO0aYe1", "createdTime": 1715669832514}, {"name": "⚕️ Medicine", "slug": "medicine", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1715669832525}, {"name": "Cancer", "slug": "cancer", "groupId": "Ael4esMwXS9k34wDBglo", "createdTime": 17156...

["public-health", "medicine", "cancer", "united-states", "health"]

0.25

0.5

1715813351729

1715670003559

0