p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.2753793285408951 | SufJVwcJSZ0g81X3Lnm5 | {"NO": 366.84779838851864, "YES": 13406.60473866072} | 0 | was-roaring-kittys-account-hacked | 24446.604437888505 | Was roaring kitty's account hacked? | 1717783204431 | XA1YJBwS9ISwLj6hf1Ola7y7mxN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | NO | public | 1715670997309 | Peter Miller | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Roaring Kitty returned to Twitter after not posting for 3 years, kicking off a rally in Gamestop and other meme stocks:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/TheRoaringKitty/status/1789807772542067105", "type": "te... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.035044996842068785} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 225.90134502800234, "platformFee": 6.0838022877164395, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717783223444 | 1000 | PeterMillerc030 | 1717783458957 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695685646763 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717778701091 | 1717783457755 | 0.01 | XA1YJBwS9ISwLj6hf1Ola7y7mxN2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | pX2mQfJAJ8nGpEG3DI0C | {"NO": 38.76300981215856, "YES": 257.977903378993} | 0.13062913837967668 | will-psg-will-the-202425-champions | 301.38340203632964 | Will PSG will the 2024/25 Champions League | 1748699940000 | Jxzs6NHitohaNLJ1AJkmt06uRw33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715671250224 | TP King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.98098950768607, "platformFee": 2.98098950768607, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | tpking | 1715712006521 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697442193885 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1715671250529}, {"name": "UEFA", "slug": "uefa", "groupId": "KSvOrWRB2hyHWfU4GnM9", "createdTime": 1715671250534}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1715671250526}, {"n... | ["soccer", "uefa", "football", "sports-default", "uefa-champions-league"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715712003250 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Riw9kjHgBRhCO5HLPxJ0 | when-will-video-chat-with-gpt4o-be | 32190.8113082433 | When will video chat with GPT-4o be generally available? | 1720648740000 | ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1715672354734 | Oleg Eterevsky | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yesterday OpenAI have introduced a new model GPT-4o with video chat capabilities: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://openai.com/index/hello-gpt-4o/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://openai.com/index/hello-gp... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 678.0620506891207, "platformFee": 57.168621639296525, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2150 | OlegEterevsky | 1720035556638 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c | 62 | 4 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "eb7f5264a6ad", "prob": 0.041965494698345734, "text": "Before 2024-05-20", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.399661282404143, "userId": "ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 191.75671344359796, "textFts": "'-05':3 '-20':4 '2024':2", "contractId": "Riw9kjHgBRhCO5HLPxJ0", "resolution": "NO", "resolve... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1703105455482 | 0 | [{"name": "ChatGPT", "slug": "chatgpt", "groupId": "lG71NUBORXAsxGmQZo77", "createdTime": 1715672355285}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715672355284}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 171567235... | ["chatgpt", "ai", "technology-default", "openai"] | 0.25 | 1720035553456 | 1719315149177 | False | alphabetical | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4285225552397114 | gcVrckjiFoKmM07QbvQJ | {"NO": 262.13720636255044, "YES": 136.07959724791618} | 0.590914323301231 | will-credible-corroborated-gpt4o-mo | 145 | Will credible, corroborated GPT4o model details leak before 2025? | 1735689540000 | PnJEXKhw7HSN9mFQo8rwSP9E7F63 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715673518230 | 0xSMW | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Corroborated = Leak must be 2 or more sources. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Credible = Source must be credible within the real of ML/AI in the same way that the below referenced leakers ar... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.440592576530565, "platformFee": 2.440592576530565, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | 0xSMW | 1715744692283 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692254479822 | 0 | [{"name": "GPT-4", "slug": "gpt4", "groupId": "eBnKor4XWTFwJQA6TOpd", "createdTime": 1715673518525}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715673518535}, {"name": "GPT-4 speculation", "slug": "gpt4-speculation", "groupId": "SWiC5KtQnc48oWmaoAZA", "createdTime": 1715673518534... | ["gpt4", "ai", "gpt4-speculation", "gpt5-speculation", "gpt4o"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715744689064 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 1Cs4X6nlwKistX0iE3LV | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | is-the-openai-model-spec-the-upcomi | 0 | Is the OpenAI model spec the upcoming definition for next major API release? | 1767225540000 | PnJEXKhw7HSN9mFQo8rwSP9E7F63 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715674892968 | 0xSMW | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://cdn.openai.com/spec/model-spec-2024-05-08.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://cdn.openai.com/spec/model-spec-2024-05-08.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 ho... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | 0xSMW | 1715675675264 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692254479822 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1715674893268}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715674893272}, {"name": "GPT-5 Speculation", "slug": "gpt5-speculation", "groupId": "XjoIQCNrsc4HP3H3DdTP", "createdTime": 1715674... | ["openai", "ai", "gpt5-speculation", "gpt4-speculation"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715675674011 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
WeQr3ssIS2fgiXTn2hPs | who-will-release-a-gpt4o-comparable | 1501.7807684604336 | Who will release a GPT-4o comparable model in 2024? | 1735689540000 | PnJEXKhw7HSN9mFQo8rwSP9E7F63 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1715675327116 | 0xSMW | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "release = announced and accessible via API", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "comparable = massive multimodal model (text, image, audio in and out), over 100 tokens / s", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"typ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 21.039519465540444, "platformFee": 14.08442382897618, "liquidityFee": 0} | 60.96645059943883 | 2975 | 0xSMW | 1720195289527 | 0 | 36 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "896935e2d6cc", "prob": 0.59, "text": "Anthropic", "index": 0, "poolNo": 272.5485722837199, "userId": "PnJEXKhw7HSN9mFQo8rwSP9E7F63", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 189.39816040055112, "textFts": "'anthrop':1", "contractId": "WeQr3ssIS2fgiXTn2hPs", "createdTime": 1715675327116, "probChanges": {"day": -1.110223024... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692254479822 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715675327562}, {"name": "GPT-5 Speculation", "slug": "gpt5-speculation", "groupId": "XjoIQCNrsc4HP3H3DdTP", "createdTime": 1715675327570}, {"name": "GPT-4", "slug": "gpt4", "groupId": "eBnKor4XWTFwJQA6TOpd", "createdTime": 1715675327574... | ["ai", "gpt5-speculation", "gpt4", "gpt4-speculation"] | 0.25 | 1720195285720 | 1716279461124 | False | prob-desc | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7685849621687898 | 7f4WjccHH6yD42cot2Ep | {"NO": 483.4378852993083, "YES": 1216.799438352688} | 0.5688797131024551 | will-sam-altman-still-be-ceo-of-ope | 1076.8143960846699 | Will Sam Altman still be CEO of OpenAI at the end of 2026? | 1798779540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.567610735576046 | False | basic | public | 1715676496788 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.00648245196056807, "week": 0.00648245196056807, "month": 0.00648245196056807} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 27.902382494553823, "platformFee": 5.191997305806503, "liquidityFee": 0} | 10 | 1000 | strutheo | 1720172755420 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Sam Altman", "slug": "sam-altman", "groupId": "1uWeVVcfTCgL7T2l7hJg", "createdTime": 1715676497086}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715676497084}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1715676497077}, {"na... | ["sam-altman", "ai", "openai", "business", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720172751606 | 1716673255638 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | ceY97hDhE6fzdExHYYfw | {"NO": 123.27224698351048, "YES": 81.1212600135183} | 0 | will-i-have-a-streak-of-5-days-on-a | 24 | Will I have a streak of 5 days on all four habits? | 1715895085227 | 1dTml0ZyhfP1dGAmTuWWKMEQVj62 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1715677892706 | Sounds Nentindo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet in this market ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See reference data:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.app... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.363876508244761, "platformFee": 0.363876508244761, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715895085227 | 100 | SoundsNentindo | 1715895085227 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLjTy_rr1v6yh7WENeR8kOpMlP_UPqFMzyez1AQOZqX=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702852140815 | 0 | [{"name": "Hobbies", "slug": "hobbies", "groupId": "12a8e88a-73cc-4f5f-bc45-c9fd7f8feb48", "createdTime": 1715677893014}, {"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1715677893021}] | ["hobbies", "personal-goals"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715681178667 | 1715895072148 | 0.6 | 1dTml0ZyhfP1dGAmTuWWKMEQVj62 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | Y4OZeltW5GGVAhhnNjKi | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | what-is-the-process-for-emirates-se | 0 | what is the process for emirates seats selection ? | 1715716416562 | am3TC8pcd2XQrxPfrXLXlWUbiVG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1715677932220 | Flightyo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In just three clicks or taps you can select your coziest and convenient seat on board with our detailed Emirates seat selection guide. Learn tricks and techniques to get the best seat in the house. You want your choice to accord to your preferences... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715716421045 | 100 | Flightyo | 1715716416562 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtesnmBdZWOfb8R-8GYgTG2-l7UbPaxdII1RWoyS2leU=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692696285898 | 0 | [{"name": "Emirates seat selection", "slug": "emirates-seat-selection", "groupId": "98d9bb04-46e9-4760-b365-967f903a97fb", "createdTime": 1715677932544}] | ["emirates-seat-selection"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0.5 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999997 | pvjdp26XaCHN46w8HZhj | {"NO": 22.195342070930728, "YES": 450.5449822779295} | 0 | will-any-team-visit-western-austral | 694.4607202334462 | Will any team visit Western Australia in Jet Lag: The Game Season 10? | 1718315940000 | ypH6QKzfPWfWioPCG9NKblgql7P2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1715679403798 | Adam Široký | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.7997596829522033} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.54384413924685, "platformFee": 2.2062737950557736, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718977285292 | 100 | AdamSiroky | 1718315940000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTteQ0q7cLqAWsCvwCYFEQzOjdbWwiUKhHLqLOB6U2uyP=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691572222064 | 0 | [{"name": "Jet Lag: The Game", "slug": "jet-lag-the-game", "groupId": "sATnBDFFC3pK7wcamkkR", "createdTime": 1715679404108}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1715679404110}, {"name": "Reality Shows", "slug": "reality-shows", "groupId": "NXGkO2v7i0fIqD5WTuWr", "createdT... | ["jet-lag-the-game", "fun", "reality-shows", "youtube", "game-shows"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718289751065 | 0.05 | ypH6QKzfPWfWioPCG9NKblgql7P2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
DZvpXbQLPvRathsW3mV9 | how-many-episodes-will-jet-lag-the | 61.48434809052259 | How many episodes will Jet Lag: The Game season 10 have? | 1716847140000 | ypH6QKzfPWfWioPCG9NKblgql7P2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | 8d17a8b4f4fb | public | 1715680163393 | Adam Široký | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0088420980890522, "platformFee": 0.7113608521697073, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718287288603 | 125 | AdamSiroky | 1716847140000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTteQ0q7cLqAWsCvwCYFEQzOjdbWwiUKhHLqLOB6U2uyP=s96-c | 5 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "64ee5f6e9a64", "prob": 0.09401889655521413, "text": "4 or less", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.066952672222905, "userId": "ypH6QKzfPWfWioPCG9NKblgql7P2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 97.00676379402942, "textFts": "'4':1 'less':3", "contractId": "DZvpXbQLPvRathsW3mV9", "resolverId": "ypH6QKzfPWfWioPCG9NKblgql7P2", "... | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691572222064 | 0 | [{"name": "Jet Lag: The Game", "slug": "jet-lag-the-game", "groupId": "sATnBDFFC3pK7wcamkkR", "createdTime": 1715680163862}] | ["jet-lag-the-game"] | 0.25 | 1716827610000 | {"8d17a8b4f4fb": 100} | ypH6QKzfPWfWioPCG9NKblgql7P2 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | m2B5rE7omgAhwkvmYE4V | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | placeholder-question | 0 | Placeholder Question | 1715682405168 | lQV3E5oNLUW1KwGOky1dLCUAr0K3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1715682396289 | 000 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Placeholder Description", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715682405168 | 100 | 000 | 1715682405168 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1705431331489 | True | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0.5 | lQV3E5oNLUW1KwGOky1dLCUAr0K3 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AUFB7Zcca7zeOW8dvd51 | starting-lineup-england-v-serbia-ue | 806.6094305687891 | [Starting Lineup] England v Serbia - UEFA Euro | 1718560800000 | hhHmuBsRMnQpDdJzrF3VDnnQZ3s2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1715686583049 | Elliot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The starting lineup will be announced on 16th June 2024. This question will resolve YES for the 11 players named in the starting lineup. Any players on the bench or not in the squad will resolve NO. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"ty... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.626254280044632, "platformFee": 3.821863490190999, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718560964676 | 245 | Elliot04624 | 1718560800000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocITWArpK3sXS6d44npeePKoMgwjVLZOskwPr3Scv7NeB738RQ=s96-c | 13 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "8ac87d912681", "prob": 0.9, "text": "Harry Kane", "index": 0, "poolNo": 76.78993095156888, "userId": "hhHmuBsRMnQpDdJzrF3VDnnQZ3s2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8.139087928001727, "textFts": "'harri':1 'kane':2", "contractId": "AUFB7Zcca7zeOW8dvd51", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "hhHmuBsRMnQpDdJzrF3VDnn... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1713507196976 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1715686583453}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1715686583454}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 171... | ["sports-default", "world-default", "soccer", "england", "euros-2024"] | 0.25 | 1718559757609 | 0.2 | hhHmuBsRMnQpDdJzrF3VDnnQZ3s2 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
eXeFffG5qylK06gLMgZc | what-is-the-main-reason-behind-gpt4 | 1370.5668113107427 | What is the main reason behind GPT-4o speed improvement relative to GPT-4 base model? | 1879365540000 | Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1715689023342 | Ihor Kendiukhov | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 26.571185574627812, "platformFee": 9.526779217513988, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IhorKendiukhov | 1719648008747 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c | 22 | 1 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "bb09ff14e656", "prob": 0.6855915609792472, "text": "Smaller model size (hence, architecture/algorithm improvements)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 290.82365758083773, "userId": "Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 133.37009586246188, "textFts": "'architecture/algorithm':5 'henc':4 'improv':6 '... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680382822335 | 0 | [{"name": "GPT-4 speculation", "slug": "gpt4-speculation", "groupId": "SWiC5KtQnc48oWmaoAZA", "createdTime": 1715689023855}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715689023866}, {"name": "GPT-4", "slug": "gpt4", "groupId": "eBnKor4XWTFwJQA6TOpd", "createdTime": 1715689023865... | ["gpt4-speculation", "ai", "gpt4"] | 0.25 | 1719648005646 | 1719229945128 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ig5U0CIhCClGOaCJHvbU | which-countries-will-take-their-flr-a8997ec4497e | 25 | Which countries will win their first-ever Olympic 🥇 gold medal this summer? | 1723496340000 | nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715689439158 | Gaz Downright | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Underdog market!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Which countries will win their first-ever gold medal at the Paris 2024 Games?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7467318993695924, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 125 | GazDownright | 1718135991089 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "55e2ecaddbd0", "prob": 0.5876622011774046, "text": "🇧🇫 Burkina Faso", "color": "#f44336", "index": 0, "poolNo": 29.845393778259012, "userId": "nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20.941254943511034, "textFts": "'burkina':1 'faso':2", "contractId": "ig5U0CIhCClGOaCJHvbU", "createdTime"... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697568039966 | 0 | [{"name": "2024 Summer Olympics", "slug": "2024-summer-olympics", "groupId": "q6FVZCgJy5BrIrMvIlXM", "createdTime": 1715689439635}, {"name": "Olympics", "slug": "olympics", "groupId": "WdIYm7PwGLqo1N1zVtEF", "createdTime": 1715689439634}, {"name": "Paris 2024", "slug": "paris-2024", "groupId": "a52dcbc5-b87d-4c85-86d4-... | ["2024-summer-olympics", "olympics", "paris-2024", "whales-vs-minnows"] | 0.25 | 1718135988005 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
irtvqgnxqVaZymqekfEn | what-will-i-get-in-imo-2024 | 898.6009127167092 | What will I get in IMO 2024? | 1721595540000 | XmMEfizHPpWdrZPoWLPdzyFEHAZ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715690235972 | Yotam Budnik | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I was ISR 8 in RMM 2024", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.478194534065443, "platformFee": 2.2936188644641, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 150 | YotamBudnik | 1718972498641 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKqvHktaBCDsOtVd6WRKupuI8u2fWRNJNamS_A6VJth=s96-c | 11 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "85d810aa949b", "prob": 0.04446565758662668, "text": "Nothing", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.392985071573019, "userId": "XmMEfizHPpWdrZPoWLPdzyFEHAZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 115.89129057568496, "textFts": "'noth':1", "contractId": "irtvqgnxqVaZymqekfEn", "createdTime": 1715690235972, "probChanges": {"day": -0... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708631109488 | 0 | [{"name": "IMO", "slug": "imo", "groupId": "131e7893-2872-4a6c-bbec-dc702b40b5cd", "createdTime": 1715690236377}, {"name": "Competition Math", "slug": "competition-math", "groupId": "64e0006d-606d-4e68-ad95-045c341bb9d1", "createdTime": 1715690236379}] | ["imo", "competition-math"] | 0.25 | 1718972495580 | False | XmMEfizHPpWdrZPoWLPdzyFEHAZ2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
DxiCyNBBxkkYqVGczu0m | best-young-player-of-the-tournament | 549.5985455213817 | Best Young Player of the Tournament UEFA EURO 2024 | 1720994340000 | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715691122962 | Base | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.029590124757318, "platformFee": 2.8921499310775363, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 275 | Base | 1717453606113 | 0 | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "21e2eabff913", "prob": 0.5739421415660599, "text": "Jude Bellingham", "index": 0, "poolNo": 50.46641620514201, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 37.46303268919989, "textFts": "'bellingham':2 'jude':1", "contractId": "DxiCyNBBxkkYqVGczu0m", "createdTime": 1715691122962, "pro... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690298751650 | 0 | [{"name": "UEFA", "slug": "uefa", "groupId": "KSvOrWRB2hyHWfU4GnM9", "createdTime": 1715691123359}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1715691123364}, {"name": "Euros 2024", "slug": "euros-2024", "groupId": "yPULnjpON1JQRT0FTlEL", "createdTime": 1715691123363}, {"na... | ["uefa", "soccer", "euros-2024", "europe", "football"] | 0.25 | 1717453602820 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1J1IVyNXZok7XMvLjBNE | which-countries-will-reach-top-2-in | 960.3888608406529 | Which countries will reach Top 2 in Group A Euro 2024? | 1719176527949 | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1715692933664 | Base | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.988849902149737, "platformFee": 1.2597548811828174, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719176539086 | 100 | Base | 1719176527949 | 0 | 12 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "2a24665bdae7", "prob": 0.99, "text": "Germany", "index": 0, "poolNo": 248.74685927665536, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.5125945381480372, "textFts": "'germani':1", "contractId": "1J1IVyNXZok7XMvLjBNE", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22",... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690298751650 | 0 | [{"name": "Euro 2024 Qualifiers", "slug": "euro-2024-qualifiers", "groupId": "N9pMvl8UPznpdAhTQXDB", "createdTime": 1715692934054}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1715692934063}, {"name": "UEFA", "slug": "uefa", "groupId": "KSvOrWRB2hyHWfU4GnM9", "created... | ["euro-2024-qualifiers", "football", "uefa", "soccer", "euros-2024"] | 0.25 | 1719176135073 | 1718943021931 | 0.01 | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8881947784361646 | QXTIGBGOFKw9iExIgkLH | {"NO": 2777.566094030354, "YES": 2535.795597541501} | 1 | is-gpt2chatbot-gpt4s-successor | 376.68183205380217 | Is "gpt2-chatbot" GPT-4's Successor? | 1716239864375 | PnJEXKhw7HSN9mFQo8rwSP9E7F63 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.172410464045587 | True | basic | YES | public | 1715695139474 | 0xSMW | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "true, if new model released in may maps to \"gpt2-chatbot\" seen in lmsys", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "true, if openai positions new model as the one consumers and developers should use ins... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.1642639206198555, "platformFee": 3.1642639206198555, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716239864375 | 2600 | 0xSMW | 1716239864375 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692254479822 | 0 | [{"name": "GPT-5 Speculation", "slug": "gpt5-speculation", "groupId": "XjoIQCNrsc4HP3H3DdTP", "createdTime": 1715695139816}, {"name": "GPT-4 speculation", "slug": "gpt4-speculation", "groupId": "SWiC5KtQnc48oWmaoAZA", "createdTime": 1715695139810}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "cre... | ["gpt5-speculation", "gpt4-speculation", "ai", "chatgpt"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716194980782 | 1716216194629 | 0.9 | PnJEXKhw7HSN9mFQo8rwSP9E7F63 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | tlMVWH8EIC0bn0JxI02Q | {"NO": 91.17687042103996, "YES": 109.67693839261675} | 0.4539464347705242 | license-plate-civil-war-will-anybod | 10 | Vanity License Plate Civil War - Will anybody be able to capture Ohio from license plate "OHIO EAR" by the end of 2024? | 1735707540000 | mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715696029435 | Stop Punting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Refers to this competition:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/StopPunting/manifold-competition-state-vanity-l", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content":... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.16153080369162434, "platformFee": 0.16153080369162434, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StopPunting | 1718881550805 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668545009927 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Vanity Competition", "slug": "manifold-vanity-competition", "groupId": "59bbc597-bad6-4996-b5e6-5af4eb2d32ef", "createdTime": 1715696029761}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1715696029769}, {"name": "Cars", "slug": "cars", "groupId"... | ["manifold-vanity-competition", "culture-default", "cars", "entertainment", "united-states"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715697961249 | 1718881549758 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6v5HO9H5B6tRLJ2u3mdS | k8bet30 | 0 | k8bet30 | 1715701980435 | M0jXFiTiBVYEVaSE7AKXoGVpSNp2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1715696658510 | Svetlana Milovskaya | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "K8 nhà cái hàng đầu Châu Á về thể loại game slot nổ hũ, game bài, cược thể thao và nhiều trò chơi khác. K8 được Gnégnéri Yaya Touré & Wesley Sneijder làm đại sứ thương hiệu khẳng định sự uy tín và minh bạch nhà cái.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "p... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715702041201 | SvetlanaMilovskaya | 1715701983247 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLtyNc-tA8cvltWCudkUDrXtNwvvKSWNZz39XTQJyq_GL4JF5c=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715696388175 | 0 | [{"name": "k8bet30", "slug": "k8bet30", "groupId": "7a666409-2854-4fcb-b0aa-6e924f0fb7c7", "createdTime": 1715696658738}] | ["k8bet30"] | 0.25 | ["367b760c6251", "1e2760d19e79"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07378715168435576 | eAtIJcMyZcBsmVX25I7B | {"NO": 846.2048222258231, "YES": 3970.9960805691103} | 0 | will-there-be-any-groundbreaking-di | 5959.262606568506 | Will there be any groundbreaking discovery regarding transhumanism in the next 30 days. | 1718315940000 | 55k7cuWjp1cyCGTfJ8NNMwyde882 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | NO | public | 1715697237360 | -Ūfoleëp - | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will treat \"Transhumanism\" as a scientific movement that advocates the use of current and emerging technologies—such as genetic engineering, cryonics, artificial intelligence (AI), and na... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.05068360183509068} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 28.426546403790997, "platformFee": 23.3609885764958, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718341324778 | 1000 | Ufoleep | 1718315940000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKYqvwXFEYNNOS-XsqDDY5T6dSIrpm4REpeRpGgOmmIKA=s96-c | 72 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1705414396796 | 0 | [{"name": "Transhumanism", "slug": "transhumanism", "groupId": "HXBqBB65NqspMjMfiX30", "createdTime": 1715697237875}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1715697237867}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime... | ["transhumanism", "technology-default", "ai", "science-default", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718306148215 | 1717153556944 | 0.02 | 55k7cuWjp1cyCGTfJ8NNMwyde882 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 1EqG7EsmUC23E3eoA12v | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-there-be-a-tornado-reported-an-5a0b73b4a86e | 0 | Will there be a Tornado reported anywhere in the world on April 14, 2025? | 1744689540000 | 8r2bepHVOBVLIzkIUVIhOU72unn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715700532529 | Dr. Derek Harris | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If in the locality the tornado is occurring in it is the 14th, then it counts.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market will close on the 14th, but will be resolved a few days after to allow for accurate resolution.",... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | DrDerek | 1715700532857 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682434756086 | 0 | [{"name": "🌧️ Weather", "slug": "weather", "groupId": "Vw7PuCkPJlK51z43wA4k", "createdTime": 1715700532857}] | ["weather"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | 9CIOb3ouW27Jl5PO9oFW | {"NO": 10.050378152592089, "YES": 994.9874371066168} | 0 | will-germany-lose-at-least-one-of-t | 2117.5761427199373 | Will Germany lose at least one of their 3 Group Games Euro 2024 | 1719176417206 | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1715700534740 | Base | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.3114482691391172} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 25.545247118634983, "platformFee": 1.2074184313023302, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719176421070 | 100 | Base | 1719176417206 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690298751650 | 0 | [{"name": "Germany", "slug": "germany", "groupId": "0egO7eYCaC5HnLwGN8tR", "createdTime": 1715700535051}, {"name": "Euros 2024", "slug": "euros-2024", "groupId": "yPULnjpON1JQRT0FTlEL", "createdTime": 1715700535060}, {"name": "UEFA", "slug": "uefa", "groupId": "KSvOrWRB2hyHWfU4GnM9", "createdTime": 1715700535068}, {"na... | ["germany", "euros-2024", "uefa", "europe", "football"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719176406541 | 0.01 | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
JVnuDTxOYJdXJFadNSKf | what-event-will-happen-first-israel | 4903.190056211944 | What Event Will Happen First: Israel/Hamas Ceasefire, Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire, Trump Re-Elected, Biden Re-elected | 1722484740000 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.796430211983247 | False | plus | public | 1715701714686 | SirCryptomind | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "What Event Will Happen First: Israel/Hamas Ceasefire, Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire, Trump Re-Elected, Biden Re-elected", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market only r... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 95.06437471650705, "platformFee": 12.18909610891554, "liquidityFee": 0} | 341.54809884984803 | 10000 | SirCryptomind | 1720220401413 | 0 | 52 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "55000b38bc20", "prob": 0.4709369317244266, "text": "Israel/Hamas Ceasefire", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2857.7241760714023, "userId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3210.4433078574816, "textFts": "'ceasefir':2 'israel/hamas':1", "contractId": "JVnuDTxOYJdXJFadNSKf", "createdTime": 1715... | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1673375788573 | 0 | [{"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "groupId": "cea99c1c-afb9-49b2-adfa-9be739adce10", "createdTime": 1715701715092}, {"name": "🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1715701715096}, {"name": "⚔️ Wars", "s... | ["israelhamas-conflict-2023", "ukrainerussia-war", "wars", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.25 | 1720220398263 | 1720133601737 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
XAsltiEcvy7KwJveXQ42 | when-will-openai-broadly-release-th | 40145.406640978974 | By when will OpenAI broadly release the model expected to be called GPT-5? | 1722581940000 | 8lZo8X5lewh4hnCoreI7iSc0GxK2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1715701945506 | Manifold AI | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "OpenAI is expected to release a new flagship model called GPT-5 sometime this year or early next year, although Sam Altman has said that he's not sure if they'll actually call it GPT-5. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragra... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 786.2379780807944, "platformFee": 79.41277962059057, "liquidityFee": 0} | 413.96563758174324 | 3750 | ManifoldAI | 1720227770997 | 0 | 208 | 8 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "0a8902074258", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Before June 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.816266205705745, "userId": "8lZo8X5lewh4hnCoreI7iSc0GxK2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 971.8103543648681, "textFts": "'2024':3 'june':2", "contractId": "XAsltiEcvy7KwJveXQ42", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "8lZo8X5lewh4hnCore... | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1711068181629 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715701945898}, {"name": "GPT-5 Speculation", "slug": "gpt5-speculation", "groupId": "XjoIQCNrsc4HP3H3DdTP", "createdTime": 1715701945902}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "crea... | ["ai", "gpt5-speculation", "technology-default", "openai"] | 0.25 | 1720227767884 | 1720129404274 | False | old | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0JQuI0VHB7Y8dPv8iM6y | germanys-exact-group-phase-result-e | 10382.873865931047 | Germany's exact group phase result Euro 2024 | 1719176428549 | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | 4a7858977a94 | public | 1715702018068 | Base | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 51.00564782780131, "platformFee": 5.832500268104046, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719176432521 | 1000 | Base | 1719176428549 | 0 | 25 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "f74a15cab36c", "prob": 0.00011573927460103406, "text": "3 Loses 0 Draw 0 Wins", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.5847123726989594, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5051.394183421549, "textFts": "'0':3,5 '3':1 'draw':4 'lose':2 'win':6", "contractId": "0JQuI0VHB7Y8dPv8iM6y", "resolv... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690298751650 | 0 | [{"name": "Euro 2024 Qualifiers", "slug": "euro-2024-qualifiers", "groupId": "N9pMvl8UPznpdAhTQXDB", "createdTime": 1715702019007}, {"name": "Euros 2024", "slug": "euros-2024", "groupId": "yPULnjpON1JQRT0FTlEL", "createdTime": 1715702019011}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQ... | ["euro-2024-qualifiers", "euros-2024", "football", "germany", "soccer"] | 0.25 | 1719176110210 | {"4a7858977a94": 100} | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | True | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08813619433661943 | gkZBZ2AeYXCjra4a7yEN | {"NO": 923.0573216284309, "YES": 1327.5158999799796} | 0.06297449159452155 | will-nvidia-and-openai-announce-int | 358.6669577943675 | Will NVIDIA and OpenAI announce intent to merge by end of 2025? | 1767243540000 | QpGjpncwYoOGKNhAhxCUWQ2eqOq2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.343281051974284 | False | basic | public | 1715702051961 | Gustavo Lacerda | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will there be a strong public sign that OpenAI (OpenAI's core tech company) and NVIDIA will attempt a merger or acquisition (M&A) with each other, by end of 2025?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hard... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.3085409632200475, "platformFee": 2.0847810390386883, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | GustavoLacerda | 1717249606318 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjR_r0ypbWKIiccnCVk1TbkoS3GQr2VxwiXOnRrzps=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1640762386920 | 0 | [{"name": "OpenAI", "slug": "openai-84034a690a0e", "groupId": "4e2494d6-fbf2-43f2-99d6-57a48892716b", "createdTime": 1715702052292}, {"name": "Mergers and Acqusitions", "slug": "mergers-and-acqusitions", "groupId": "PFIReLFjJNpAPu7tjhPT", "createdTime": 1715702052298}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvw... | ["openai-84034a690a0e", "mergers-and-acqusitions", "ai", "openai", "nvidia"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717249603195 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999983 | DuwCfOMb4f8Hhs8jD913 | {"NO": 84.95441634666614, "YES": 117.71018423802562} | 0.4191872487921955 | will-sam-altman-still-be-ceo-of-ope-0d3e516dbd30 | 95 | Will Sam Altman still be CEO of OpenAI at the end of 2027? | 1830315540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715702132339 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.475898100613304, "platformFee": 0.6228986798144459, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1716862328619 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Sam Altman", "slug": "sam-altman", "groupId": "1uWeVVcfTCgL7T2l7hJg", "createdTime": 1715702132695}, {"name": "💼 Business", "slug": "business", "groupId": "pmK8sntWL1SDkMm53UBR", "createdTime": 1715702132710}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715702132711},... | ["sam-altman", "business", "ai", "openai", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716862325186 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
D4RVK5C6Edb0j5eInAWH | who-will-win-the-2024-wnba-champion-335bf75e47e5 | 182.47107390906336 | Who will win the 2024 WNBA Championship? | 1732953540000 | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715702660646 | Kevin Burke | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The playoffs begin on September 20th.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.382470889958057, "platformFee": 1.2385477114228107, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 300 | KevinBurke | 1719779863986 | 0 | 7 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "6d0da2ea7866", "prob": 0.33293177835302645, "text": "Las Vegas Aces", "index": 0, "poolNo": 31.95121781204439, "userId": "7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 64.01804643212968, "textFts": "'ace':3 'las':1 'vega':2", "contractId": "D4RVK5C6Edb0j5eInAWH", "createdTime": 1715702660646, "pr... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668407142709 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1715702661068}, {"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1715702661073}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime": 171570266... | ["sports-default", "basketball", "nba", "wnba", "womens-sports"] | 0.25 | 1719779860720 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RvKAduFb3uRHKrSoVElb | who-will-win-the-2025-wnba-champion | 289 | Who will win the 2025 WNBA Championship? | 1764575940000 | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715702758001 | Kevin Burke | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The playoffs begin late September 2025 with the finals concluding in October 2025.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.8580969897550763, "platformFee": 0.5958231084990182, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 350 | KevinBurke | 1716522852308 | 0 | 3 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "7b700f0aef1e", "prob": 0.16703165271241052, "text": "Las Vegas Aces", "index": 0, "poolNo": 21.734593017785926, "userId": "7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 108.38800748840566, "textFts": "'ace':3 'las':1 'vega':2", "contractId": "RvKAduFb3uRHKrSoVElb", "createdTime": 1715702758001, "... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668407142709 | 0 | [{"name": "WNBA", "slug": "wnba", "groupId": "e5117cba-382d-4eb0-87a9-16e16bad081b", "createdTime": 1715702758407}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime": 1715702758414}, {"name": "Women's Sports", "slug": "womens-sports", "groupId": "4d493f25-3dd9-46f5-ba58-4b6fcd6931d2", "cre... | ["wnba", "nba", "womens-sports", "basketball", "sports-default"] | 0.25 | 1716522848154 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 1ocB06kwCL8Mg5tr7v7s | {"NO": 194.82896578417993, "YES": 51.32707018050602} | 0.7914856323577233 | will-september-2024-be-the-hottest-6d585fc6ed85 | 272.63130427583127 | Will September 2024 be the hottest September on record? | 1729051140000 | yTue1A3ApPhtq3tYKBY2vxEEvG52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715703245392 | Paper Boy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve based on NOAA global monthly report. Usually gets released in the middle of the following month.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthl... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.2855301492588681} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.745263352587203, "platformFee": 2.0717420226358922, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | PaperBoy | 1719100938410 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKvvIqQ7wel-RMQneP56-S8xiaR9D7ojtRAVjiR78e5gg=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1699382550755 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1715703245727}, {"name": "World records", "slug": "world-records", "groupId": "21ca0aab-a0ee-4952-b403-43ced38b62c2", "createdTime": 1715703245731}, {"name": "🌧️ Weather", "slug": "weather", "groupId": "Vw7PuCkPJlK51... | ["us-politics", "world-records", "weather", "global-warming", "climate"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719100935352 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
qXrIu1hyCO6FirylOyAk | in-what-month-will-openai-broadly-r | 61978.93036324995 | In what month will OpenAI broadly release the model expected to be called GPT-5? | 1735718340000 | 8lZo8X5lewh4hnCoreI7iSc0GxK2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1715703678394 | Manifold AI | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "OpenAI is expected to release a new flagship model called GPT-5 sometime this year or early next year, although Sam Altman has said that he's not sure if they'll actually call it GPT-5. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragra... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 522.0532532524041, "platformFee": 127.36652754224924, "liquidityFee": 0} | 20 | 1200 | ManifoldAI | 1720189679040 | 0 | 139 | 4 | DISABLED | [{"id": "215035858d12", "prob": 0.0027081797708841597, "text": "May or June 2024", "color": "#2196f3", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.910692707492899, "userId": "8lZo8X5lewh4hnCoreI7iSc0GxK2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4017.8812009454177, "textFts": "'2024':4 'june':3 'may':1", "contractId": "qXrIu1hyCO6FirylOyAk", "creat... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1711068181629 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715703679378}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1715703679381}, {"name": "GPT-5 Speculation", "slug": "gpt5-speculation", "groupId": "XjoIQCNrsc4HP3H3DdTP", "createdTime": 1715703... | ["ai", "openai", "gpt5-speculation", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 1720189675869 | 1719866631147 | True | new | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4UBPtuJb03x5Lrtux8bw | when-will-the-average-price-of-seco | 10 | When will the average price of second-hand homes in China's top tier cities start to increase on month-on-month basis? | 1718380740000 | NSjUI8Xk5dX5Y4R8nZCjcpwMD2K2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715703859004 | Shawn Tai | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Top tier cities in China include Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.20768705931850592, "platformFee": 0.20768705931850592, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 175 | ShawnTai | 1715732951471 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKRq_5h3yDPyV55totTPYyI7Etap87gAM5ANXAOYMQ-t5Jjaw=s96-c | 1 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "e3c5cdc2fa11", "prob": 0.12080458870318003, "text": "Sept-Oct 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 13.241324750238773, "userId": "NSjUI8Xk5dX5Y4R8nZCjcpwMD2K2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 96.36812711233117, "textFts": "'2024':4 'oct':3 'sept':2 'sept-oct':1", "contractId": "4UBPtuJb03x5Lrtux8bw", "createdTime": 1715... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715563300477 | 0 | [{"name": "Real Estate", "slug": "real-estate", "groupId": "JCSx09py8PNgRaE9gc2u", "createdTime": 1715703859340}, {"name": "🇨🇳 China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1715703859330}, {"name": "Housing markets", "slug": "housing-markets", "groupId": "irDrBDORHpMwKezzJrJZ", "createdTi... | ["real-estate", "china", "housing-markets"] | 0.25 | 1715732947936 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | IEvt6EmQDl6ijOcbezap | {"NO": 149.19136877222164, "YES": 67.02800625998367} | 0.69 | sex-stock | 50.556940252261505 | Sex Stock | 2556143940000 | ghx9kL2YQZbfwbBb2RYkkzRruQq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715703883291 | chicago | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.682785740019934, "platformFee": 0.682785740019934, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | chicago55372 | 1716535125815 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKK9cKeRUg52T5TzSh2pPl-t29dQwVhldew2jTHSvH1-_zDXFfW=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715605111955 | 0 | [{"name": "❤️🔥 Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3", "createdTime": 1715703883624}, {"name": "Permanent Markets", "slug": "permanent-markets", "groupId": "2T4mM0N5az2lYcaN5G50", "createdTime": 1715703883621}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5"... | ["sex-and-love", "permanent-markets", "stocks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716535122190 | 1716148734627 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1R6YMrtmXbQqFGpUBKpu | could-you-unarmed-beat-timothee-cha | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat Timothée Chalamet in a fight? | 1717196340000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1715704492730 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-thin... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717196340999 | gregrosent | 1715704493120 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Surveys", "slug": "manifold-surveys", "groupId": "69c805e4-703a-4b16-b0e9-294bcc7338e6", "createdTime": 1715704493130}, {"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId": "RCGUqqLvrrs1ievZIxDE", "createdTime": 1715704493138}, {"name": "Human Limits", "slug": "human-limits", "groupId": "776c47e1-af5... | ["manifold-surveys", "fighting", "human-limits", "fun"] | 0.25 | ["32d378f712b7"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ren2tjvJiNJVtDfAviCQ | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-c8979ff62d8b | 0 | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or The Mad King Aerys Targaryen II? | 1716013531022 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1715704539126 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX", "label": "/strutheo/who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716013561197 | strutheo | 1716013532367 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1715704539458}] | ["polls"] | 0.25 | ["caf492b5ed83"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
DdNo2hZVidEReIPHcnLL | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-5ca5f9a33f13 | 0 | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Jair Bolsonaro? | 1715981378294 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1715704567648 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX", "label": "/strutheo/who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715981401103 | strutheo | 1715981389089 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1715704568001}] | ["polls"] | 0.25 | ["b10dff6252ab"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
nPJBQZ1a9tUQwXe4z1F7 | could-you-unarmed-beat-a-coyote-in | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat a coyote in a fight? | 1717196340000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1715704595807 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-thin... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717196340999 | gregrosent | 1715704596158 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "Human Limits", "slug": "human-limits", "groupId": "776c47e1-af58-4422-b6eb-2c7ac955c843", "createdTime": 1715704596122}, {"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId": "RCGUqqLvrrs1ievZIxDE", "createdTime": 1715704596137}, {"name": "Manifold Surveys", "slug": "manifold-surveys", "groupId": "69c805e4-703... | ["human-limits", "fighting", "manifold-surveys", "fun"] | 0.25 | ["4768b4a91e3f"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
dtYCwQoDme32GgpIzskM | could-you-unarmed-beat-your-mom-in | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat YOUR MOM in a fight? | 1717196340000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1715704660465 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-thin... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717196340999 | gregrosent | 1715704660809 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "Human Limits", "slug": "human-limits", "groupId": "776c47e1-af58-4422-b6eb-2c7ac955c843", "createdTime": 1715704660804}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1715704660808}, {"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId": "RCGUqqLvrrs1ievZIxDE", "createdTime... | ["human-limits", "fun", "fighting", "manifold-surveys"] | 0.25 | ["09542a797e3d"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
rQIM8Q3pYOF09rV20DwN | could-you-unarmed-beat-elon-musk-in | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat Elon Musk in a fight? | 1717196340000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1715704727999 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-thin... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717196340999 | gregrosent | 1715704728363 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1715704728343}, {"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId": "RCGUqqLvrrs1ievZIxDE", "createdTime": 1715704728356}, {"name": "Human Limits", "slug": "human-limits", "groupId": "776c47e1-af58-4422-b6eb-2c7ac955c843", "createdTime... | ["fun", "fighting", "human-limits", "manifold-surveys"] | 0.25 | ["e9c08dc11f5c"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1beREZv6pBezxYTnRsHr | could-you-unarmed-beat-1kg-of-fire | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat 1kg of fire ants (poured on the head) in a fight? | 1717196340000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1715704786140 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-thin... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717196340999 | gregrosent | 1715721900844 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Surveys", "slug": "manifold-surveys", "groupId": "69c805e4-703a-4b16-b0e9-294bcc7338e6", "createdTime": 1715704786514}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1715704786518}, {"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId": "RCGUqqLvrrs1ievZIxDE", "cre... | ["manifold-surveys", "fun", "fighting", "human-limits"] | 0.25 | 1715721899258 | ["83f761e07193"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
JeBdVF5B4UE95c0oX63S | could-you-unarmed-beat-a-kangaroo-i | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat a kangaroo in a fight? | 1717196340000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1715704839551 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-thin... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717196340999 | gregrosent | 1715704906253 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Surveys", "slug": "manifold-surveys", "groupId": "69c805e4-703a-4b16-b0e9-294bcc7338e6", "createdTime": 1715704840019}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1715704840022}, {"name": "Human Limits", "slug": "human-limits", "groupId": "776c47e1-af58-4422-... | ["manifold-surveys", "fun", "human-limits", "fighting"] | 0.25 | 1715704903680 | ["c0cd73d73b9b"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PmXKGdTFuzj6cbx1ueYc | could-you-unarmed-beat-ronda-rousey | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat Ronda Rousey (today, not during her fighting career) in a fight? | 1717196340000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1715704908860 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-thin... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717196340999 | gregrosent | 1715704911248 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "Human Limits", "slug": "human-limits", "groupId": "776c47e1-af58-4422-b6eb-2c7ac955c843", "createdTime": 1715704911164}, {"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId": "RCGUqqLvrrs1ievZIxDE", "createdTime": 1715704911245}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime... | ["human-limits", "fighting", "fun", "manifold-surveys"] | 0.25 | ["8d033339168b"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
KBhAVE931f49LIrqpp5D | could-you-unarmed-beat-a-trex-in-a | 0 | Could you (unarmed) beat a T-rex in a fight? | 1717196340000 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1715704959863 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Used to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/gregrosent/whowhat-do-manifold-users-thin... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717196340999 | gregrosent | 1715704960579 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | [{"name": "Human Limits", "slug": "human-limits", "groupId": "776c47e1-af58-4422-b6eb-2c7ac955c843", "createdTime": 1715704960578}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1715704960580}, {"name": "Manifold Surveys", "slug": "manifold-surveys", "groupId": "69c805e4-703a-4b16-... | ["human-limits", "fun", "manifold-surveys", "fighting"] | 0.25 | ["cc6458187319"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
IU9aQRb4oA4gZZVvtynf | how-big-will-the-tesla-robotaxi-rev | 40 | How big will the Tesla robotaxi revealed on 8/8/24 be? | 1723521540000 | 6xnywyUcc3Tc0UJ31jBhhgsJ2ZT2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715705173887 | Michael de la Maza | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"big\" as measured by interior cubic feet", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For those interested in knowing what happens if the robotaxi is exactly the same size as one of the vehicles in the a... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.571723226909914, "platformFee": 0.2729742054404716, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | MichaeldelaMaza | 1719895116791 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc2Yp4NuvrX5sfYnqFK8ZrJDbuPz4x2fJZwp8EEeWdg4F13=s96-c | 2 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "54698d916446", "prob": 0.11777831238989284, "text": "Bigger than a Model X", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.547588441966525, "userId": "6xnywyUcc3Tc0UJ31jBhhgsJ2ZT2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 79.00700126084593, "textFts": "'bigger':1 'model':4 'x':5", "contractId": "IU9aQRb4oA4gZZVvtynf", "createdTime": 17157051... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690228060340 | 0 | [{"name": "Tesla Robotaxi", "slug": "tesla-robotaxi", "groupId": "5576d5af-3f37-4aa8-a026-36bfeb101417", "createdTime": 1715705174366}, {"name": "Tesla", "slug": "tesla", "groupId": "aWXHajzqi5AtOZ3rZmcV", "createdTime": 1715705174384}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01... | ["tesla-robotaxi", "tesla", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.25 | 1719895113649 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | joT5sXTVAgR4Ez1EBDTZ | {"NO": 56.15621161508485, "YES": 178.0746904464219} | 0.23974723711023738 | will-legal-cannabis-be-grown-in-gaz | 80 | Will legal cannabis be grown in Gaza Strip by 2040? | 2209096740000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715705671845 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What is currently considered Gaza Strip on the day of market creation - May 14, 2024", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4820682310624116, "platformFee": 0.4432413225156813, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | KeenenW | 1716928202289 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1715705672152}, {"name": "Cannabis", "slug": "cannabis", "groupId": "4d7535ea-5cd1-45fa-bc6c-8ad82bc06c74", "createdTime": 1715705672150}, {"name": "Gaza", "slug": "gaza", "groupId": "eb9005cb-58e8-49d5-90c2-47c6e641... | ["politics-default", "cannabis", "gaza", "palestine", "drug-policy"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716928198655 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 3ZJePAzLEykdop2Eo41G | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-legal-cannabis-be-grown-in-wes | 0 | Will legal cannabis be grown in West Bank by 2040?" | 2209096740000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715705702690 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What is currently considered West Bank on day of market creation - May 14, 2024", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | KeenenW | 1715705779976 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "Drug Policy", "slug": "drug-policy", "groupId": "B6bj6VYMErDbfcWWSpAj", "createdTime": 1715705703124}, {"name": "Cannabis", "slug": "cannabis", "groupId": "4d7535ea-5cd1-45fa-bc6c-8ad82bc06c74", "createdTime": 1715705703111}, {"name": "🇵🇸 Palestine", "slug": "palestine", "groupId": "1de63cc6-7700-472a-a943... | ["drug-policy", "cannabis", "palestine", "gaza", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
W5Hr11AlCxpbhykrIDz5 | who-will-be-part-of-the-cast-of-the | 147.0823656946522 | Who will be part of the cast of the upcoming Wes Anderson film "The Phoenician Scheme"? | 1798757940000 | oHn8IrSQ4Edhe02FtUWTnMjY1xB3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1715705762238 | StockDuck | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Wes Anderson's next feature film will be titled \"The Phoenician Scheme\" (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Phoenician_Scheme", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.m.wikipedia.or... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.191849491483728, "platformFee": 2.191849491483728, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2200 | StockDuck | 1715786265904 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK-jl3LdwcMiEnvskanW9azrQnaLo4y-O_RkPMG5Qrq=s96-c | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "5ca1717dc5a7", "prob": 0.34150185495186264, "text": "Owen Wilson", "index": 0, "poolNo": 147.65538701433812, "userId": "oHn8IrSQ4Edhe02FtUWTnMjY1xB3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 284.715286448479, "textFts": "'owen':1 'wilson':2", "contractId": "W5Hr11AlCxpbhykrIDz5", "createdTime": 1715705762239, "probChange... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1710812073163 | 0 | [{"name": "Hollywood", "slug": "hollywood", "groupId": "qnJlrpEJJ1i5tEJ6J2jM", "createdTime": 1715705762639}, {"name": "🎥 Movies", "slug": "movies", "groupId": "KSeNIu7AWgiBBM5FqVuB", "createdTime": 1715705762656}, {"name": "Wes Anderson", "slug": "wes-anderson", "groupId": "556b1649-83a1-4b18-9a0c-38e6e2f9ddb5", "cre... | ["hollywood", "movies", "wes-anderson", "celebrities"] | 0.25 | 1715739267626 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Qvc1xQ4dfEa5MFdnkBLj | was-the-covid19-shutdown-worth-it | 0 | Was the Covid-19 shutdown worth it? | 1735711140000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1715706469847 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves this market: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenW/does-manifold-think-the-covid19-shu", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | KeenenW | 1715711744192 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "COVID", "slug": "covid-d7a9361d772d", "groupId": "QVtAndZbd4jbfuKPSEDS", "createdTime": 1715706470215}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1715706470222}, {"name": "Past Events", "slug": "past-events", "groupId": "deaf74a8-47fa-4e50-8b41... | ["covid-d7a9361d772d", "manifold-6748e065087e", "past-events", "politics-default", "manifold-users"] | 0.25 | 1715711742939 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | YOM6G0pF8H628Wu7lx5M | {"NO": 158.43032887753668, "YES": 63.119227681019275} | 0.7151010877138148 | does-manifold-think-the-covid19-shu | 79.3538767852335 | Does Manifold think the Covid-19 shutdown worth it? | 1735711140000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715706504827 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Unsure/Results aren't counted. If more people vote yes this resolves \"Yes\" and vice versa.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to this Poll:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.1078971686149088, "platformFee": 1.1078971686149088, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | KeenenW | 1716346182475 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1715706505899}, {"name": "Past Events", "slug": "past-events", "groupId": "deaf74a8-47fa-4e50-8b41-c882d3c84964", "createdTime": 1715706505914}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbah... | ["politics-default", "past-events", "manifold-users", "manifold-6748e065087e", "covid-d7a9361d772d"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716346178941 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | jb4mRrIXq8giRiBsj7hU | {"NO": 102.35423903478976, "YES": 97.69991056844302} | 0.5116326716430968 | will-cognition-labs-devin-have-an-e | 24 | Will Cognition Labs (Devin) have an exit > $6bn before 2027? | 1798865940000 | vrPa0bHD3MQ7QGore2pXulifTwh1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715707009431 | Campbell Hutcheson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To resolve to yes:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Cognition must be acquired for > $6bn in a private transaction (more than 50% of the company pur... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.40347850760465087, "platformFee": 0.40347850760465087, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | CampbellHutcheson | 1715719516967 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714972692677 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715707009760}, {"name": "Venture Capital", "slug": "venture-capital", "groupId": "faNUnphw6Eoq7OJBRJds", "createdTime": 1715707009771}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "created... | ["ai", "venture-capital", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715719513700 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
jboHgzeYFTMkjKVi6nzo | did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory-34b91c026bb0 | 0 | Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? | 1735711140000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1715707131446 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves this market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenW/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory-8d38660948d1", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | KeenenW | 1715719896735 | 0 | 105 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1715707131735}, {"name": "COVID", "slug": "covid-d7a9361d772d", "groupId": "QVtAndZbd4jbfuKPSEDS", "createdTime": 1715707131753}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj... | ["technology-default", "covid-d7a9361d772d", "science-default", "past-events", "covid-origins"] | 0.25 | 1715719893068 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.16131193768622973 | j8OZxOzhPPkqih5hdIUY | {"NO": 1093.9230178846092, "YES": 522.7304553090735} | 0.28699181881618346 | did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory-8d38660948d1 | 10479.602383174666 | Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? | 1735711140000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.77938035257629 | False | basic | public | 1715707178633 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Unsure and Results don't count. Resolves to this Poll:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenW/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory-34b91c026bb0", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.1402152536373161} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 218.6720013328055, "platformFee": 10.340651594169291, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | KeenenW | 1719491621604 | 0 | 43 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1715707179005}, {"name": "Past Events", "slug": "past-events", "groupId": "deaf74a8-47fa-4e50-8b41-c882d3c84964", "createdTime": 1715707179001}, {"name": "COVID origins", "slug": "covid-origins", "groupId": "KOFIQGdsNjY... | ["science-default", "past-events", "covid-origins", "technology-default", "covid-d7a9361d772d"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719491618543 | 1718983282125 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Go3XYschwTHD2kEJu9Oc | how-to-store-logo-and-metadata-for | 0 | How to Store Logo and Metadata for Your Solana Token: A Comprehensive Guide | 1715889823080 | UMGogelgn4N4d0S4y3K6Hv5bx9x1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1715707403342 | SEO Expert | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FB7RJWLc-Uv.png?alt=media&token=713b0316-becd-44b6-b2fc-047e4c9e7a5b", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715889840804 | SEOExpert | 1715889825156 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK1emmqBEy046_zquwt_v0O8faVIyTEV6m-jmxuVqwb21_5XDc=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715707251928 | 0 | [{"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1715707403658}] | ["crypto-speculation"] | 0.25 | ["7282639d583f", "a87d70140fa2"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4175329185890964 | tHYKSOC4BhbXREtLBUU2 | {"NO": 175.01764335807036, "YES": 233.05832551475012} | 1 | proof-of-avoidance-of-human-extinct | 345.3312665027182 | Proof of avoidance of human extinction within a year? | 1718348340000 | URQs6uwMWjSdOLjLTRG8vEl2fqB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1715708190527 | Michael Cohen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By May 14, 2025, will any paper mathematically define a policy for an agent which provably avoids (perhaps merely with arbitrarily high probability) knowably causing human extinction whenever possible, while also having the potential to surpass hum... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.6500618849913903} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.090018465804623, "platformFee": 5.090018465804623, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718997226745 | 200 | MichaelCohen | 1719199748092 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbyE1JmykmT-Q9K_ZXhr7bUtg121Al1fwa382vf=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1679557264945 | 0 | [{"name": "🧬 Biology", "slug": "biology", "groupId": "82OVufkY4rbpp5uizfqL", "createdTime": 1715708190917}, {"name": "Existential Risk", "slug": "existential-risk", "groupId": "iYAqK70zopnAZFdQtjS5", "createdTime": 1715708190924}] | ["biology", "existential-risk"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716270560793 | 1719199746568 | 0.35 | URQs6uwMWjSdOLjLTRG8vEl2fqB2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
bNCGQGGUHGt6rhqJcXWZ | israels-response-to-the-attack-on-o | 141.32562402523095 | Israel's response to the attack on Oct 7 was... | 1759899540000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715708425090 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Describe \"Israel's response to the attack on Oct 7\" in one Manifold answer or less.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I've added a few simple ones I've seen people talk about. You can add your... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3753543568623938, "platformFee": 1.3753543568623938, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 125 | KeenenW | 1715946399112 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "64b8e2053303", "prob": 0.03613146118721286, "text": "Appropriate", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.0503971360241815, "userId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 161.40469427792212, "textFts": "'appropri':1", "contractId": "bNCGQGGUHGt6rhqJcXWZ", "createdTime": 1715708425090, "probChanges": {... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1715708434040}, {"name": "Gaza", "slug": "gaza", "groupId": "eb9005cb-58e8-49d5-90c2-47c6e64178c7", "createdTime": 1715708437190}, {"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "grou... | ["politics-default", "gaza", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "arabisraeli-conflict", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 1715946395773 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
dVY7KHd6dYwxxOA4cp2P | greatest-woman-to-ever-exist-on-the | 32.36534419677401 | Greatest Woman to ever exist on the face of Earth at any point in time? | 1735711140000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715708831384 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Once this market is full of women and you guys appear to be done trading I'll give it another week or two then this will market will be closed and resolved to a Poll with all the women on it.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3836587420991084, "platformFee": 0.3836587420991084, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | KeenenW | 1715756909319 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f9cfa9c8ada8", "prob": 0.14432148754004107, "text": "Hypatia of Alexandria", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.85549146281061, "userId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 70.29091421029736, "textFts": "'alexandria':3 'hypatia':1", "contractId": "dVY7KHd6dYwxxOA4cp2P", "createdTime": 171570883... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1715708831804}, {"name": "Public Figures", "slug": "public-figures", "groupId": "sIbESq9CYGTy9yeah6Tg", "createdTime": 1715708831835}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupI... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "public-figures", "entertainment", "women", "simpology"] | 0.25 | 1715715656442 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
kAIpLztOWGDtYV6I0tCM | greatest-inventor-of-alltime | 98.97568602649845 | Greatest Inventor of All-Time | 1746075540000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715709624004 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Inventor\" so consider all of their inventions. I added some key inventors that have inventions the world still makes great use of and loves today.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves t... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3925226887109656, "platformFee": 1.2981146667387773, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 325 | KeenenW | 1717766398664 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3b5f519e01f9", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Charles Goodyear", "index": 0, "poolNo": 33.333333333333336, "userId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 33.333333333333336, "textFts": "'charl':1 'goodyear':2", "contractId": "kAIpLztOWGDtYV6I0tCM", "createdTime": 1715709624004, "probChanges": {"... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1715709624372}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1715709624387}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbahk6... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "technology-default", "manifold-users", "entertainment", "science-default"] | 0.25 | 1717766395256 | 1715717038160 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
llVGczFtiXU4aJY8DDjF | when-artificial-general-intelligenc | 54.69943616449005 | When artificial general intelligence (AGI) exists, what will be true? | 32527346340000 | 6KWjHgjrlzUCYTxXW9NEGzm5JWu1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715709660645 | J00 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feel free to add more answers. This market will be resolved by a poll or another appropriate method if/when the time comes. I may bet on this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8552046083741641, "platformFee": 0.8552046083741641, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 300 | J00 | 1715731661072 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLk_gEnLrWNlyW6mDOUfpw0ts6v_z9wyYwNMpg17QPE=s96-c | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "acfaf0dfbde6", "prob": 0.5, "text": "More than one AGI individual exists at the time the public finds out that AGI exists.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25, "userId": "6KWjHgjrlzUCYTxXW9NEGzm5JWu1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25, "textFts": "'agi':4,15 'exist':6,16 'find':12 'individu':5 'one':3 'public':11 'time'... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1705904068130 | 0 | [{"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1715709661479}, {"name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "groupId": "7f9f7d2a-ce2e-4905-ac9b-112007e62b30", "createdTime": 1715709661492}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIq... | ["world-default", "artificial-intelligence", "ai", "ai-risk", "agi"] | 0.25 | 1715731657789 | 1715731175571 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999983 | IaTUB79XqvNQkh5J2nXy | {"NO": 108.83841038556963, "YES": 91.87932793739012} | 1 | will-there-be-a-break-between-chain-c1383bded9c6 | 43 | Will there be a break between Chainsaw Man chapters 166 and 167? | 1716361140000 | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1715710316700 | dwax | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A break can be any amount of time, enough for Shonen Jump to state at the end of chapters if there will be a break before the next one.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“YES” = “Yes, there will be a break after chapt... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7186183101283765, "platformFee": 0.7186183101283765, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716754699541 | 100 | dwax | 1716361140000 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708101936708 | 0 | [{"name": "Anime", "slug": "anime", "groupId": "ZfknfjPrTvWkDaWMI98o", "createdTime": 1715710317023}, {"name": "Release Dates", "slug": "release-dates", "groupId": "cc227156-11f9-445d-88cf-f6e760cbdb86", "createdTime": 1715710317025}, {"name": "Manga", "slug": "manga", "groupId": "0e0wvkjcHdblLOdaK9jp", "createdTime": ... | ["anime", "release-dates", "manga", "chainsaw-man"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716338113886 | 0.54 | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999933 | XwbzSpM6oUIFCWDuH5vU | {"NO": 898.0840077129085, "YES": 11.134815801326283} | 1 | will-gamestop-gme-be-back-at-20-or | 2610.201574770084 | Will Gamestop GME be back at $20 or below by the end of May 22nd? | 1715975253075 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1715710617830 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FAXhhR0901p.png?alt=media&token=98bfe687-f266-4480-af70-c1b2252aed3d", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.735119697260773, "platformFee": 13.735119697260773, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715975253075 | 100 | strutheo | 1715975318106 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1715710661216}, {"name": "🌐 Internet", "slug": "internet", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1715710664611}, {"name": "Video Games", "slug": "video-games", "groupId": "9FaZmHrfS8IcDJyu6pUD", "createdTime": 171571... | ["stocks", "internet", "video-games", "business", "gamestop"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715958962777 | 1715975316360 | 0.99 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Y2CPJhbh0k3gxdrhMzVy | what-will-the-lineage-of-gpt4o-be-k | 432.95023040723 | What will the lineage of GPT-4o be known to be at the end of 2024? | 1735689540000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715710937188 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves at the end of 2024 at whether GPT-4o is a GPT-4 finetune or a completed new base model if this is known (through eg public statement or very convincing forensics), and unknown otherwise. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.048703951116837, "platformFee": 1.0425581207683468, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Tetraspace | 1718288607367 | 0 | 9 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "012092c71550", "prob": 0.052937942758181755, "text": "GPT-4 finetune", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.358903619785552, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 149.5411428170143, "textFts": "'-4':2 'finetun':3 'gpt':1", "contractId": "Y2CPJhbh0k3gxdrhMzVy", "createdTime": 1715710937188, ... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1642130392212 | 0 | [{"name": "GPT-4 speculation", "slug": "gpt4-speculation", "groupId": "SWiC5KtQnc48oWmaoAZA", "createdTime": 1715710937659}, {"name": "GPT-5 Speculation", "slug": "gpt5-speculation", "groupId": "XjoIQCNrsc4HP3H3DdTP", "createdTime": 1715710937661}, {"name": "GPT-4", "slug": "gpt4", "groupId": "eBnKor4XWTFwJQA6TOpd", "c... | ["gpt4-speculation", "gpt5-speculation", "gpt4"] | 0.25 | 1718246218488 | 1718288606145 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4pcJ7eMNcwwU22a1GlbU | top-100-eminem-songs | 41.6346994936929 | Top 100 Eminem Songs | 1735711140000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715711080088 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to poll once we got 100 songs and you guys are done betting. The Poll will have all 100.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Songs will resolve 100% for top and 1% for bottom", "type"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5319490562078732, "platformFee": 0.5319490562078732, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | KeenenW | 1715715498941 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "4fdb0bbb5110", "prob": 0.7399999999999998, "text": "The Real Slim Shady", "index": 0, "poolNo": 42.17636961434866, "userId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14.818724459095488, "textFts": "'real':2 'shadi':4 'slim':3", "contractId": "4pcJ7eMNcwwU22a1GlbU", "createdTime": 1715711080... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "Hip-Hop/Rap", "slug": "hiphoprap", "groupId": "qojZj1hvMmMET5Eo3QgW", "createdTime": 1715711080484}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1715711080477}, {"name": "🧑🎤 Celebrities", "slug": "celebrities", "groupId": "4QIcUOfCSSha0JZHAg9X", "cre... | ["hiphoprap", "culture-default", "celebrities", "entertainment", "music-f213cbf1eab5"] | 0.25 | 1715715495743 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | OxIgdzhoAdrwiaD5Usb1 | {"NO": 10.050378152592316, "YES": 994.9874371066194} | 0 | will-netflix-account-for-78-of-tv-s | 996.8653359646412 | Will Netflix account for >7.8% of TV streaming in May? (7.6% in April, down from 8.1% in March) | 1718735414470 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1715713998207 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The source I am using is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nielsen", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ". ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "pa... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.41233779882259525} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.46221362274171, "platformFee": 0.3092124434819743, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718735414470 | 100 | Ziddletwix | 1718735433642 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "🎥 Movies", "slug": "movies", "groupId": "KSeNIu7AWgiBBM5FqVuB", "createdTime": 1715713998542}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1715713998546}, {"name": "💼 Business", "slug": "business", "groupId": "pmK8sntWL1SDkMm53UBR", "createdTime": 17... | ["movies", "culture-default", "business", "tv", "entertainment"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718729965880 | 1718735432420 | 0.01 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18175944094019728 | 0lSrHabm6gSoH3f3ZI19 | {"NO": 937.5948697596749, "YES": 1162.2486690557666} | 0.15196569506101165 | will-sheryl-sandberg-replace-bob-ig | 391.91079357858575 | Will Sheryl Sandberg replace Bob Iger as CEO of Disney by the end of 2024? | 1735685940000 | 4whKWb3H9zU6BW4b2jrtc9VKxOT2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.77452246376475 | False | basic | public | 1715714125929 | Omar B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.0069769202035165345} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.8924221659585574, "platformFee": 3.1367782860427975, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | OmarB | 1719314975847 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697294914972 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1715714126304}, {"name": "CEOs of companies", "slug": "ceos-of-companies", "groupId": "jjKBXq5brkKZ7abtm8EK", "createdTime": 1715714126322}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8J... | ["technology-default", "ceos-of-companies", "us-politics", "business"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719314972729 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | Z66eyKegzTKUgy5KZhIS | {"NO": 81.12246031997968, "YES": 123.27042301917336} | 0.39689474014303916 | will-manifold-let-market-creators-s | 24 | Will Manifold let market creators set market cost/subsidy by November? | 1731887940000 | XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715714661324 | Fion | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifold are increasing the costs of market creation. Some creators worry they won't be able to afford to create all the good markets they want to create. But the high cost is needed because Manifold are also removing house subsidies, so markets wi... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7295769808266324, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Fion | 1717070849494 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1671292812077 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1715714661635}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1715714661700}] | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716972556717 | 1717070848165 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | S99zufaqsjyiZp0eOQpw | {"NO": 10.050378152592145, "YES": 994.9874371066187} | 0 | will-apple-generative-ai-apply-to-m | 937.8286340665495 | Will Apple generative AI apply to models less premium than iPhone 15 at launch? | 1719059742385 | XtJuqIcTwEa5WnmBtmypEKyjlfu1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1715714756551 | Henri Thunberg | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What \"Apple generative AI\" means will be pretty evident when we see it, probably some mix of their own on-device model combined with a partnership with OpenAI or Google.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content":... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.41233306668864717} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.97125553545389, "platformFee": 0.3086295941531022, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719059742385 | 100 | HenriThunberg | 1719059742385 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1665991918794 | 0 | [{"name": "iPhone", "slug": "iphone", "groupId": "d65113e9-fafc-47b4-882f-87219e778441", "createdTime": 1715714756890}, {"name": "📱 WWDC 2024", "slug": "-wwdc-2024", "groupId": "49de1328-c259-49f7-addf-87115e888927", "createdTime": 1715714756896}, {"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih"... | ["iphone", "-wwdc-2024", "apple"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719059737987 | 1718079503812 | 0.01 | XtJuqIcTwEa5WnmBtmypEKyjlfu1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.25725679334374424 | 3BPunv4kF8OgvJpARMeq | {"NO": 195.3628046015616, "YES": 6672.806143138148} | 0 | will-the-roast-of-tom-brady-stay-in | 6492.485749253607 | Will "The Roast of Tom Brady" stay in the Netflix Global Top 10 for at least four (consecutive) weeks? | 1716992457499 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1715714876659 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "S", "type": "text"}, {"text": "ource", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": The Netflix Global Top 10: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "TV (English)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.netfl... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.72939659070879, "platformFee": 1.470813020628542, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716992457499 | 500 | Ziddletwix | 1716992513974 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "📺 Television & Film", "slug": "television-film", "groupId": "EUSEngFk1dGGBfaMeAmh", "createdTime": 1715714877354}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1715714877356}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupI... | ["television-film", "entertainment", "culture-default", "netflix", "tv"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716992430943 | 1716992512622 | 0.01 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
OnZoS0mej3gbftTQyZ7A | buffalo-bills-miami-dolphins-tnf | 364.0374259263071 | Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins 🏈 TNF | 1726199940000 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715714906635 | The Official | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.01112220899353, "platformFee": 3.312181217424435, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 275 | 10thOfficial | 1716655282099 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "6fd2ffa6b36c", "prob": 0.47147264879612055, "text": "Buffalo Bills win", "index": 0, "poolNo": 23.61209527424461, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 26.46948492884203, "textFts": "'bill':2 'buffalo':1 'win':3", "contractId": "OnZoS0mej3gbftTQyZ7A", "createdTime": 17157149066... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682437068858 | 0 | [{"name": "🏈 NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1715714907601}, {"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b3ll9Ch9rdbcrTRAbjUf", "createdTime": 1715714907606}, {"name": "Miami Dolphins", "slug": "miami-dolphins", "groupId": "f71ffdb9-b6c6-4581-bb94-a6c5d99eb6b... | ["nfl", "sports-betting", "miami-dolphins", "sports-default", "football"] | 0.25 | 1716655278406 | False | old | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
iEzDwiFXl9JzaVLC4T34 | in-june-2024-how-many-people-will-d | 60 | In June 2024, how many people will die from lightning strikes in the United States? | 1716353940000 | 19FzmZAhGKSTzunPOe1h5A0dcfp1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715715007649 | Keith Kelley | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Number of deaths is based upon what is reported by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "http://lightningsafetycouncil.org/LSC-2024-Fatalities.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://lightningsafetycouncil.org/LSC-2024-F... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3448006856597238, "platformFee": 0.3448006856597238, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 175 | KeithKelley | 1716294947146 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLh5wMRfHjqjn8r9_q9pihmDOVr73RqeRggB3NN9-5fDfj1dAOH=s96-c | 2 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "2968508de8ba", "prob": 0.05918526935138101, "text": "0", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.959570429053848, "userId": "19FzmZAhGKSTzunPOe1h5A0dcfp1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 142.42219275700467, "textFts": "'0':1", "contractId": "iEzDwiFXl9JzaVLC4T34", "createdTime": 1715715007650, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ... | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1713842381347 | 0 | [{"name": "🌧️ Weather", "slug": "weather", "groupId": "Vw7PuCkPJlK51z43wA4k", "createdTime": 1715715008314}, {"name": "Death", "slug": "death", "groupId": "c3e79d12-8b00-473c-a37d-810c1e4bea30", "createdTime": 1715715008316}, {"name": "🪸 Climate", "slug": "climate", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw", "createdTime": 1... | ["weather", "death", "climate", "life-death"] | 0.25 | 1716294943812 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RGzF9PwDp0nZJlAFHxXd | new-york-jets-san-francisco-49ers-m | 907.9562161128044 | New York Jets @ San Francisco 49ers 🏈 MNF | 1725940740000 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715715416051 | The Official | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.20658423568029, "platformFee": 3.549156939163282, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 275 | 10thOfficial | 1717464478936 | 0 | 13 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3a0db0a3e686", "prob": 0.3270063570504497, "text": "NY Jets win", "index": 0, "poolNo": 17.426598502656436, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 35.864715647447085, "textFts": "'jet':2 'ny':1 'win':3", "contractId": "RGzF9PwDp0nZJlAFHxXd", "createdTime": 1715715416051, "probCh... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682437068858 | 0 | [{"name": "Miami Dolphins", "slug": "miami-dolphins", "groupId": "f71ffdb9-b6c6-4581-bb94-a6c5d99eb6bd", "createdTime": 1715715416458}, {"name": "🏈 NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1715715416454}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "cr... | ["miami-dolphins", "nfl", "football", "sports-default", "sports-betting"] | 0.25 | 1717464475836 | False | old | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | bBy2CzmWfUouriyFpt5l | {"NO": 116.91840943877824, "YES": 85.52973007417009} | 0.5775227656824201 | was-ethereum-eth-at-its-year-low-in | 144 | Was Ethereum ETH at its year low in January 2024? | 1735718340000 | XtJuqIcTwEa5WnmBtmypEKyjlfu1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715715557090 | Henri Thunberg | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.11033307801809972} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.896487206675767, "platformFee": 0.9000803966317377, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | HenriThunberg | 1719059693265 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1665991918794 | 0 | [{"name": "Ethereum", "slug": "ethereum", "groupId": "IYG60kkC6dQPZ9078ePu", "createdTime": 1715715557546}, {"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1715715557605}] | ["ethereum", "crypto-speculation"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719059690170 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ZImoeksQUOVLmsSdJrsn | cincinnati-bengals-kansas-city-chie | 478.20454630108867 | Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs 🏈 Sunday 9/15 | 1726459140000 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715715587116 | The Official | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.201119898814194, "platformFee": 3.807969935065459, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 300 | 10thOfficial | 1716655436730 | 0 | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "d7d940e3b5df", "prob": 0.33877565461470877, "text": "Bengals win", "index": 0, "poolNo": 17.894587332956313, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 34.926762398646794, "textFts": "'bengal':1 'win':2", "contractId": "ZImoeksQUOVLmsSdJrsn", "createdTime": 1715715587116, "probChang... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682437068858 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1715715587539}, {"name": "Kansas City Chiefs", "slug": "kansas-city-chiefs", "groupId": "2abf714e-d387-4dc6-af68-455287828996", "createdTime": 1715715587536}, {"name": "🏈 NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Q... | ["football", "kansas-city-chiefs", "nfl", "sports-default", "sports-betting"] | 0.25 | 1716655433260 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
qlyaSgmdyqBMxG8mIBS9 | houston-texans-chicago-bears-hall-o | 298.7489509330166 | Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears 🏈 Hall of Fame Game | 1722571140000 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715715701837 | The Official | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.754840249991684, "platformFee": 2.5824221486443992, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | 10thOfficial | 1716655781331 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "fce818612a70", "prob": 0.5372028559376176, "text": "Texans win", "index": 0, "poolNo": 26.934804643077875, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 23.204177950502498, "textFts": "'texan':1 'win':2", "contractId": "qlyaSgmdyqBMxG8mIBS9", "createdTime": 1715715701837, "probChanges"... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682437068858 | 0 | [{"name": "🏈 NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1715715702496}, {"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b3ll9Ch9rdbcrTRAbjUf", "createdTime": 1715715702499}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1... | ["nfl", "sports-betting", "sports-default", "football"] | 0.25 | 1716655777549 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
pv8iICoFfNpVsJQ9TWkY | dallas-cowboys-cleveland-browns-sun | 349.65543158593516 | Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns 🏈 Sunday 9/8 | 1725854340000 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715715881280 | The Official | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.5105534119331625, "platformFee": 2.533619616859101, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 225 | 10thOfficial | 1717469419819 | 0 | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "edeb656922d3", "prob": 0.5170178357237039, "text": "Cowboys win", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25.86587799237762, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 24.163107866826735, "textFts": "'cowboy':1 'win':2", "contractId": "pv8iICoFfNpVsJQ9TWkY", "createdTime": 1715715881280, "probChanges... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682437068858 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1715715881650}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1715715881653}, {"name": "🏈 NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 17157158... | ["sports-default", "football", "nfl", "sports-betting"] | 0.25 | 1717469416738 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
EBCQdlK3Cl9LKmWNcl82 | max-ie-hbo-peacock-are-neck-neck-in | 19063.18845369098 | Max (i.e. HBO) & Peacock are neck & neck in the streaming wars. Which will have higher viewership in May? | 1718735467244 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | 54258ef1b14b | public | 1715716080586 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Source: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Nielsen's monthly report for May, estimating the fraction of TV viewership for each streaming service.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.283388755874551, "platformFee": 0.9441117059872353, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718735467244 | 350 | Ziddletwix | 1720053161621 | 0 | 13 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "54258ef1b14b", "prob": 0.9996511545716339, "text": "Max", "color": "#673ab7", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9366.662791501694, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.2686577501754073, "textFts": "'max':1", "contractId": "EBCQdlK3Cl9LKmWNcl82", "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkse... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "🎥 Movies", "slug": "movies", "groupId": "KSeNIu7AWgiBBM5FqVuB", "createdTime": 1715716080942}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1715716080944}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb... | ["movies", "economics-default", "entertainment", "tv", "culture-default"] | 0.25 | 1718735451968 | 1718735483625 | {"54258ef1b14b": 100} | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5nL6i3vQbFM3xAYpT7iZ | will-i-finger-an-ass-in-the-next-24 | 1939.9516211232626 | Will I finger an ass in the next 24...? | 1735689540000 | ghx9kL2YQZbfwbBb2RYkkzRruQq1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715716087007 | chicago | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Add your own answers", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am a straight male in my 20s.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I live in SF and I am actively going on da... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.429297574078051, "platformFee": 5.08421538391554, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 175 | chicago55372 | 1719895625260 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKK9cKeRUg52T5TzSh2pPl-t29dQwVhldew2jTHSvH1-_zDXFfW=s96-c | 10 | 2 | ANYONE | [{"id": "72914e7e26be", "prob": 0.9893401873355744, "text": "weeks", "index": 0, "poolNo": 240.845229072402, "userId": "ghx9kL2YQZbfwbBb2RYkkzRruQq1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.595027530365215, "textFts": "'week':1", "contractId": "5nL6i3vQbFM3xAYpT7iZ", "createdTime": 1715716087007, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "wee... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715605111955 | 0 | [{"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1715716087315}, {"name": "❤️🔥 Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3", "createdTime": 1715716087321}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "... | ["personal-goals", "sex-and-love", "openai"] | 0.25 | 1719895622131 | 1715721915861 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
raV0l12WuyFmU2v1QBp3 | how-many-people-will-attend-acx-eve-ecb157f56e9c | 0 | How many people will attend ACX Everywhere in Berkeley, CA? | 1718078340000 | Sq84uyj7audLjNIRcwPEGRelzni1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | 387bdef93332 | public | 1715716136882 | Sky | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Scott Alexander has announced ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Meetups Everywhere", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/spring-meetups-everywhere-2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underlin... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718376017397 | 1000 | SkylerCrossman | 1718078340000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp522MxN_DUmEa3SFNwQT29emvpE9Y-G4PR63WDV=s96-c | 0 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "7b24b1fba49c", "prob": 0.05263157894736842, "text": "50-75", "index": 0, "poolNo": 27.77777777777778, "userId": "Sq84uyj7audLjNIRcwPEGRelzni1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "textFts": "'-75':2 '50':1", "contractId": "raV0l12WuyFmU2v1QBp3", "resolverId": "Sq84uyj7audLjNIRcwPEGRelzni1", "createdTime": 17157... | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1671482936113 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong", "slug": "lesswrong", "groupId": "K0U4VlIwJhdyTp53mqVk", "createdTime": 1715716137295}, {"name": "Rationality", "slug": "rationality", "groupId": "y6NwD6qw6OTGClZwTVqW", "createdTime": 1715716137306}, {"name": "📖 ACX", "slug": "acx", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29", "createdTime": 1715716137307... | ["lesswrong", "rationality", "acx"] | 0.25 | {"387bdef93332": 100} | Sq84uyj7audLjNIRcwPEGRelzni1 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 1q0WkRYvAsX0KyxRfayr | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-scout-motors-reveal-both-their | 0 | Will Scout Motors reveal both their SUV and pickup truck by August 31? | 1725166740000 | HoOjRjOQjQWNmwdqhkGzYzvhaSw1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715716498679 | TheSchwa | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Scout Motors, a brand used by International Harvester through 1980 but now being revived by Volkswagen, claims they will reveal their first two electric vehicles, an SUV and a pickup truck, by \"late summer 2024.\" Will both vehicles be revealed by... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | TheSchwa | 1715716499113 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1712888273551 | 0 | [{"name": "Cars", "slug": "cars", "groupId": "cfaa7108-ad3b-444c-bf5e-c5da03db1eae", "createdTime": 1715716499089}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1715716499107}, {"name": "Electric Vehicles", "slug": "electric-vehicles", "groupId": "d446b2a7-5... | ["cars", "technology-default", "electric-vehicles"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.37295375132543973 | 2Da0cdXsINOIvN6SlDpN | {"NO": 318.4989692414841, "YES": 6777.686750762079} | 0 | will-hasan-make-his-own-twitter-com | 8181.8352776780375 | Will Hasan make his own twitter community by the end of May 2024? | 1717225140000 | foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.315300883085293 | True | basic | NO | public | 1715716617266 | Punished Furry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Destiny has made his own twitter community recently and it's been actively pumping out anti-Hasan clips for Destiny to post on his own twitter.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.027190046459125292} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 55.11528454889303, "platformFee": 19.171482077785868, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717234471305 | 1000 | PunishedFurry | 1717225140000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3go4lmW16N7oUihjjm8IiRRoMb5Dw2cMM1P1-g=s96-c | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1666746014983 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1715716617591}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1715716617606}, {"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "c... | ["politics-default", "culture-default", "destinygg", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717224258634 | 1717224261753 | 0.03 | foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | AixgaZnXblNimm4LkuGy | {"NO": 636.1773891832853, "YES": 15.718886225802285} | 1 | will-the-fae-party-im-going-to-satu | 744 | Will the fae party I'm going to Saturday be cancelled or postponed? | 1715821674498 | GB5hZnKVXCdbNXRJbJT1WFH6nQ02 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1715716739925 | bh | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The party is outside, and they have said they'll move it to Sunday if it's too rainy (this would resolve YES). Party is in Southern Maryland.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.628448775955883, "platformFee": 2.628448775955883, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715821674498 | 100 | hamiltonianurst | 1717422582323 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1669137065045 | 0 | [{"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1717422582323}] | ["nonpredictive"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | 1715821666044 | 0.98 | GB5hZnKVXCdbNXRJbJT1WFH6nQ02 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
nZCOYNIH3QUHMChlNErl | 2024-nfl-preseason-games | 0 | 2024 NFL Preseason Games | 1725163140000 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715716828030 | The Official | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a placeholder. Do not bet. I cannot make this unlisted for some reason. Will be updated tomorrow when the teams are announced.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1875 | 10thOfficial | 1715716868741 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "d1864ad21022", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Team A beats Team B", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25, "textFts": "'b':5 'beat':3 'team':1,4", "contractId": "nZCOYNIH3QUHMChlNErl", "createdTime": 1715716828031, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682437068858 | 0 | 0.25 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
FvJaMWJhHvqHaD08vQgV | how-many-people-attend-the-rational | 30.00000000000011 | How many people attend the Rationalist Megameetup? | 1736053140000 | Sq84uyj7audLjNIRcwPEGRelzni1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715717031238 | Sky | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The East Coast Rationalist Megameetup has existed in one form or another since 2014, held in New York City the weekend of Secular Solstice. It's been growing steadily since then, and last year we successfully made the transition to a conference hot... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5177804603308536, "platformFee": 0.3025236137825517, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SkylerCrossman | 1719110255487 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp522MxN_DUmEa3SFNwQT29emvpE9Y-G4PR63WDV=s96-c | 2 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "2ccaeafceb04", "prob": 0.08274643196205234, "text": "50-75", "index": 0, "poolNo": 47.489755916631005, "userId": "Sq84uyj7audLjNIRcwPEGRelzni1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 526.4293218075891, "textFts": "'-75':2 '50':1", "contractId": "FvJaMWJhHvqHaD08vQgV", "createdTime": 1715717031238, "probChanges": {"day"... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1671482936113 | 0 | [{"name": "📖 ACX", "slug": "acx", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29", "createdTime": 1715717031684}, {"name": "Rationality", "slug": "rationality", "groupId": "y6NwD6qw6OTGClZwTVqW", "createdTime": 1715717031682}, {"name": "LessWrong", "slug": "lesswrong", "groupId": "K0U4VlIwJhdyTp53mqVk", "createdTime": 1715717031679... | ["acx", "rationality", "lesswrong"] | 0.25 | 1719110252301 | 1718308178623 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | 099BpjBoxyqIhMkGeQqU | {"NO": 10.050378152592202, "YES": 994.9874371066223} | 0 | 2024-formula-1-season-will-max-vers-c8e2bc28a299 | 1440.3599955823963 | [2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Max Verstappen qualify first, win the race and have the fastest lap at the Italian GP? | 1716129142737 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1715717719222 | Archie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Verstappen qualifies 1st, then goes on to win the Italian Grand Prix (Imola) with the fastest lap by race end.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Verstappen qualifies first but... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.271886650542207, "platformFee": 11.271886650542207, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716129142737 | 100 | Arch1e | 1716129142737 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674748485128 | 0 | [{"name": "Motorsports", "slug": "motorsports", "groupId": "eed75a10-7bc2-40e7-a89f-0d4f5aaecd33", "createdTime": 1715717719537}, {"name": "🏎️ Formula 1", "slug": "formula-1", "groupId": "OyHBKJOz9YaGkDctpwuY", "createdTime": 1715717719534}, {"name": "Auto Racing", "slug": "auto-racing", "groupId": "MIDhbxvpwoHQ3QaG7x... | ["motorsports", "formula-1", "auto-racing"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716128953618 | 1716118535943 | 0.01 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999992 | X0NCLAAGUT4tRPUvdxSY | {"NO": 994.987437106619, "YES": 10.050378152592089} | 1 | 2024-formula-1-season-will-any-driv-9f9997fae4c5 | 999.3668036155368 | [2024 Formula 1 Season] Will any driver from the Top 5 constructors be eliminated in Q1 during qualifying in Italy? | 1716042172547 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1715717767267 | Archie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if any driver from Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren or Aston Martin fails to make it into Q2 during qualifying at the Italian Grand Prix (Imola).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.8062568125125744, "platformFee": 3.8062568125125744, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716042172547 | 100 | Arch1e | 1716042172547 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674748485128 | 0 | [{"name": "🏎️ Formula 1", "slug": "formula-1", "groupId": "OyHBKJOz9YaGkDctpwuY", "createdTime": 1715717767598}, {"name": "Auto Racing", "slug": "auto-racing", "groupId": "MIDhbxvpwoHQ3QaG7xfU", "createdTime": 1715717767596}, {"name": "Motorsports", "slug": "motorsports", "groupId": "eed75a10-7bc2-40e7-a89f-0d4f5aaecd... | ["formula-1", "auto-racing", "motorsports"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716041945312 | 1716041969012 | 0.99 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 6GXxYE235POwpTirN3LO | {"NO": 10.050378152592103, "YES": 994.9874371066182} | 0 | 2024-formula-1-season-will-perez-qu-257fa2f3a60f | 1148.2343623016836 | [2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Perez qualify within 0.250 seconds or outqualify Max Verstappen at the Italian GP? | 1716043422114 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1715717829510 | Archie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the gap between Perez and Verstappen in qualifying is 0.250 seconds or lower at the Italian Grand Prix (Imola).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Perez out-qualif... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.201602458762317, "platformFee": 3.201602458762317, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716043422114 | 100 | Arch1e | 1716043422114 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674748485128 | 0 | [{"name": "🏎️ Formula 1", "slug": "formula-1", "groupId": "OyHBKJOz9YaGkDctpwuY", "createdTime": 1715717829827}, {"name": "Motorsports", "slug": "motorsports", "groupId": "eed75a10-7bc2-40e7-a89f-0d4f5aaecd33", "createdTime": 1715717829830}, {"name": "Auto Racing", "slug": "auto-racing", "groupId": "MIDhbxvpwoHQ3QaG7x... | ["formula-1", "motorsports", "auto-racing"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716043323269 | 1716043337274 | 0.01 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999997 | 92RbwbHrPyU6j6AaE0hw | {"NO": 227.75017127034891, "YES": 43.90776061428119} | 1 | 2024-formula-1-season-will-the-driv-e2d5f62ff36 | 155 | [2024 Formula 1 Season] Will the drivers finishing 1st, 2nd and 3rd all be from different teams at the Italian GP? | 1716129157675 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1715717870158 | Archie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if each position on the podium is occupied by a driver from a different team, e.g. 1st - MV (Red Bull), 2nd - LN (McLaren), 3rd - LH (Mercedes) at Imola.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.7071411823288287, "platformFee": 1.7071411823288287, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716129157675 | 100 | Arch1e | 1716129157675 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674748485128 | 0 | [{"name": "🏎️ Formula 1", "slug": "formula-1", "groupId": "OyHBKJOz9YaGkDctpwuY", "createdTime": 1715717870465}, {"name": "Motorsports", "slug": "motorsports", "groupId": "eed75a10-7bc2-40e7-a89f-0d4f5aaecd33", "createdTime": 1715717870478}, {"name": "Auto Racing", "slug": "auto-racing", "groupId": "MIDhbxvpwoHQ3QaG7x... | ["formula-1", "motorsports", "auto-racing"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716127920867 | 0.84 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999956 | jKocnLa7s0h1mofyu1Qv | {"NO": 375.794775073126, "YES": 26.6102688576606} | 1 | 2024-formula-1-season-will-both-fer-e2729ff5da32 | 737.767100010925 | [2024 Formula 1 Season] Will both Ferrari drivers beat Sergio Perez at the Italian Grand Prix? | 1716129129214 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1715717908922 | Archie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if both Ferrari cars (Leclerc, Sainz, or a reserve) finish ahead of Perez in the Sunday race in Italy (Imola).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A if one of the Ferrari c... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.491286433363216, "platformFee": 4.491286433363216, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716129129214 | 100 | Arch1e | 1716129129214 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674748485128 | 0 | [{"name": "🏎️ Formula 1", "slug": "formula-1", "groupId": "OyHBKJOz9YaGkDctpwuY", "createdTime": 1715717909309}, {"name": "Motorsports", "slug": "motorsports", "groupId": "eed75a10-7bc2-40e7-a89f-0d4f5aaecd33", "createdTime": 1715717909312}, {"name": "Auto Racing", "slug": "auto-racing", "groupId": "MIDhbxvpwoHQ3QaG7x... | ["formula-1", "motorsports", "auto-racing"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716128423765 | 0.93 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | wHKTIJeSxyJUXaW18PB9 | {"NO": 10.050378152592145, "YES": 994.9874371066219} | 0 | 2024-formula-1-season-will-max-vers-6b8eb2a1d225 | 1610.588998653804 | [2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Max Verstappen win the Italian Grand Prix with a 8+ second lead? | 1716129119923 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1715717966368 | Archie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Verstappen wins the race in Italy (Imola), with a gap of 8 seconds or more crossing the finish line to the car in second place.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Verstappen ha... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.141355694251457, "platformFee": 6.141355694251457, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716129119923 | 100 | Arch1e | 1716129119923 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674748485128 | 0 | [{"name": "🏎️ Formula 1", "slug": "formula-1", "groupId": "OyHBKJOz9YaGkDctpwuY", "createdTime": 1715717967025}, {"name": "Motorsports", "slug": "motorsports", "groupId": "eed75a10-7bc2-40e7-a89f-0d4f5aaecd33", "createdTime": 1715717967020}, {"name": "Auto Racing", "slug": "auto-racing", "groupId": "MIDhbxvpwoHQ3QaG7x... | ["formula-1", "motorsports", "auto-racing"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716128854950 | 0.01 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | NFOpjOigKIuzFHccx9YM | {"NO": 21.546775962491864, "YES": 464.1065567028553} | 0 | 2024-formula-1-season-will-perez-le-d22e5c8a3f7c | 590.3187608972305 | [2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Perez, Leclerc, Norris and Piastri all finish in the top 6 positions at the Italian GP? | 1716129109095 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1715718006165 | Archie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the listed drivers all finish the race in 6th or higher at Imola.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A if any driver is unable to race on the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.387493626206625, "platformFee": 5.387493626206625, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716129109095 | 100 | Arch1e | 1716129109095 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674748485128 | 0 | [{"name": "Auto Racing", "slug": "auto-racing", "groupId": "MIDhbxvpwoHQ3QaG7xfU", "createdTime": 1715718007181}, {"name": "Motorsports", "slug": "motorsports", "groupId": "eed75a10-7bc2-40e7-a89f-0d4f5aaecd33", "createdTime": 1715718007187}, {"name": "🏎️ Formula 1", "slug": "formula-1", "groupId": "OyHBKJOz9YaGkDctpw... | ["auto-racing", "motorsports", "formula-1"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716129090121 | 0.04 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | cuww5tNYfCwqZx58bB3E | {"NO": 10.050378152592089, "YES": 994.9874371066194} | 0 | 2024-formula-1-season-will-either-z-3d4f9356121f | 971.2711867400338 | [2024 Formula 1 Season] Will either Zhou, Bottas, Albon, Sargeant or Magnussen score points at the Italian GP? | 1716129398843 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1715718058462 | Archie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if any of the drivers listed score points with a top-10 finish at the Italian Grand Prix (Imola).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is a reserve driver in place of the list... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.254046460135269, "platformFee": 3.254046460135269, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716129398843 | 100 | Arch1e | 1716129398843 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674748485128 | 0 | [{"name": "Auto Racing", "slug": "auto-racing", "groupId": "MIDhbxvpwoHQ3QaG7xfU", "createdTime": 1715718059179}, {"name": "Motorsports", "slug": "motorsports", "groupId": "eed75a10-7bc2-40e7-a89f-0d4f5aaecd33", "createdTime": 1715718059175}, {"name": "🏎️ Formula 1", "slug": "formula-1", "groupId": "OyHBKJOz9YaGkDctpw... | ["auto-racing", "motorsports", "formula-1"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716129255965 | 0.01 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | 8rPnIbHzPLNOYAVwEeWq | {"NO": 739.42870997215, "YES": 13.523954189412876} | 1 | 2024-formula-1-season-will-perez-sa-7d27998303e9 | 1163.602556701114 | [2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Perez, Sainz, Piastri, Russell & and Stroll all score points at the Italian Grand Prix? | 1716129090460 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1715718120161 | Archie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All the drivers listed need to score points with a top-10 finish at the Italian Grand Prix (Imola).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is a replacement/reserve driver in place of one of ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.912103626935277, "platformFee": 6.912103626935277, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716129090460 | 100 | Arch1e | 1716129090460 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674748485128 | 0 | [{"name": "Auto Racing", "slug": "auto-racing", "groupId": "MIDhbxvpwoHQ3QaG7xfU", "createdTime": 1715718120491}, {"name": "🏎️ Formula 1", "slug": "formula-1", "groupId": "OyHBKJOz9YaGkDctpwuY", "createdTime": 1715718120510}, {"name": "Motorsports", "slug": "motorsports", "groupId": "eed75a10-7bc2-40e7-a89f-0d4f5aaecd... | ["auto-racing", "formula-1", "motorsports"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716129067836 | 0.98 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | wZjsucFFRFZgmo64ZOk8 | {"NO": 10.050378152592145, "YES": 994.9874371066217} | 0 | 2024-formula-1-season-will-verstapp-16829c1ccd3f | 1497.686276468426 | [2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Verstappen, Leclerc, Norris, Hamilton and Alonso all score points at the Italian GP? | 1716129082825 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1715718171198 | Archie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All the drivers listed need to score points with a top-10 finish at the Italian Grand Prix (Imola).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is a replacement/reserve driver in place of one of ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.09386536583747, "platformFee": 6.09386536583747, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716129082825 | 100 | Arch1e | 1716129082825 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674748485128 | 0 | [{"name": "Motorsports", "slug": "motorsports", "groupId": "eed75a10-7bc2-40e7-a89f-0d4f5aaecd33", "createdTime": 1715718171666}, {"name": "Auto Racing", "slug": "auto-racing", "groupId": "MIDhbxvpwoHQ3QaG7xfU", "createdTime": 1715718171693}, {"name": "🏎️ Formula 1", "slug": "formula-1", "groupId": "OyHBKJOz9YaGkDctpw... | ["motorsports", "auto-racing", "formula-1"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716128834665 | 0.01 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
akNsqW6YUwMf6ySIgRii | which-hogwarts-house-do-you-sort-to | 0 | Which Hogwarts house do you sort Tony Soprano into? | 1716919021810 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1715718877066 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716919080283 | strutheo | 1716919024536 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Hogwarts Sorting", "slug": "hogwarts-sorting", "groupId": "c703a734-cf08-4c72-9e0a-9c97ba68c82a", "createdTime": 1715718877544}, {"name": "📚 Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1715718877547}, {"name": "Meta-markets", "slug": "metamarkets", "groupId": "0112083b-1b7d-4e... | ["hogwarts-sorting", "books", "metamarkets", "harry-potter", "psychology"] | 0.25 | 1716521604366 | ["d447d20468c6"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
dp8TqqQUp6zQpEnd2M23 | do-you-prefer-your-child-become-a-j | 0 | Do you prefer your child become a Juggalo or Furry? | 1735684860000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1715719582860 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "4jXv1K4McEsiUxKom9Yr", "label": "/strutheo/would-manifold-prefer-their-child-b-1436bcef7ae2"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolved at 50% ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | strutheo | 1716316338626 | 0 | 46 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 1715895708698 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | Twb3untvynzMEo55dN26 | {"NO": 62.36095644623232, "YES": 160.35674514745463} | 0.27999999999999997 | metaculus-will-the-us-or-eu-seize-r | 219.29086103710102 | [Metaculus] Will the US or EU seize Russian sovereign assets in 2024? | 1735808400000 | PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715719937714 | Mirror Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Will the US or EU seize Russian sovereign assets in 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the original on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.06994639060122942, "month": -0.2378654173160984} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.02190254394002, "platformFee": 1.9308142939685806, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | mirrorbot | 1719909784628 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0 | 7 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696426201173 | 0 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1715719938105}, {"name": "Europe", "slug": "europe", "groupId": "ue52QI4BQgJgAJJNjLHr", "createdTime": 1715719991778}, {"name": "🇷🇺 Russia", "slug": "russia", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1715719994912},... | ["metaculus", "europe", "russia", "united-states"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719909781547 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
eDjStzhElt4Qjsce1D62 | which-days-will-jimmy-carter-be-ali | 167480.8291696494 | Which days will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of? (May 16-Aug 23) | 1722488340000 | ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715722700675 | Jimmy Carter Death Markets | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jimmy ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Markets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=jimmy-carter", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1027.5384958436841, "platformFee": 466.4677644582176, "liquidityFee": 0} | 11.093439069305475 | 2500 | JCDM | 1720185958683 | 0 | 146 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "1f64065e66c3", "prob": 0.99, "text": "May 16", "index": 0, "poolNo": 248.74685927665394, "userId": "ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.512594538148022, "textFts": "'16':2 'may':1", "contractId": "eDjStzhElt4Qjsce1D62", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1"... | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1703455433441 | 0 | [{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1715722701372}, {"name": "Jimmy Carter", "slug": "jimmy-carter", "groupId": "rigfelwTsUUySMFFJz5O", "createdTime": 1715722701373}, {"name": "🧑🎤 Celebrities", "slug": "celebrities", "groupId": "4QIcUOfCSSha0JZHAg9X", ... | ["culture-default", "jimmy-carter", "celebrities", "longevity", "entertainment"] | 0.25 | 1720185955414 | 1715808872572 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
VX77Vc349PQSa2KvfAzA | which-game-will-be-released-first | 0 | Which game will be released first? | 1767221940000 | xWTQjVam3Df5ouvhzbagmzTbrNi1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715722852410 | Ganf | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Open PTR does not count as release. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Ganf | 1715722853185 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLh-uL2JQ8WgKV5NNbU80K20Y62x7QDNDN5kzBY_zV3LxzKPcWD=s96-c | 0 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "ff7d9dcaf745", "prob": 0.5, "text": "GTA 6", "index": 0, "poolNo": 50, "userId": "xWTQjVam3Df5ouvhzbagmzTbrNi1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50, "textFts": "'6':2 'gta':1", "contractId": "VX77Vc349PQSa2KvfAzA", "createdTime": 1715722852410, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715635386128 | 0 | [{"name": "Video Games", "slug": "video-games", "groupId": "9FaZmHrfS8IcDJyu6pUD", "createdTime": 1715722853181}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1715722853185}] | ["video-games", "gaming"] | 0.25 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
m8HdRZ5NGLeJAZoJehce | which-days-will-jimmy-carter-be-ali-4536436c2556 | 13205.842053022132 | Which days will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of? (Aug 24-Dec 1) | 1724648340000 | ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1715723043913 | Jimmy Carter Death Markets | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jimmy ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Markets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=jimmy-carter", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 335.26576559001893, "platformFee": 37.85724463116902, "liquidityFee": 0} | 161.2614523111333 | 2500 | JCDM | 1720211548876 | 0 | 24 | 3 | DISABLED | [{"id": "0997c66c4505", "prob": 0.53, "text": "August 24", "index": 0, "poolNo": 26.54782917759102, "userId": "ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 23.54241455371279, "textFts": "'24':2 'august':1", "contractId": "m8HdRZ5NGLeJAZoJehce", "createdTime": 1715723043914, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "wee... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1703455433441 | 0 | [{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1715723044479}, {"name": "Jimmy Carter", "slug": "jimmy-carter", "groupId": "rigfelwTsUUySMFFJz5O", "createdTime": 1715723044477}, {"name": "Longevity", "slug": "longevity", "groupId": "b8Ygbdfv5q2sQ... | ["entertainment", "jimmy-carter", "longevity", "celebrities", "culture-default"] | 0.25 | 1720211545819 | False | 0 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.