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0.5000000000000003 | oOTYwieBaV4sNZUUeXFJ | {"NO": 2178.485990400796, "YES": 459.0343956336486} | 0.8259598681912697 | will-prize-markets-still-exist-on-m | 1258.2727272727273 | Will Prize Markets still exist on Manifold markets on Jan 1, 2025? | 1735707540000 | JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.666947170853422 | False | basic | public | 1716299224290 | Ibozz91 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.10462404520773827, "week": 0.10462404520773827, "month": 0.10462404520773827} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.620641163238343, "platformFee": 12.620641163238343, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Ibozz91 | 1716330687518 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1656270007406 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716330684220 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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AVAAlDpuYE1LnQtKKsUQ | taco-tuesday-0430-secret-handshake | 3971.000000000001 | Taco Tuesday 05/21: Party Games | 1716447540000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 7.6061755039862184 | True | plus | CHOOSE_MULTIPLE | public | 1716309426473 | Austin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Join us for Taco Tuesday! We'll start cooking at 6:30pm, come when you can, targeting dinner at 7pm. If you're looking for something to bring: dessert, drinks, sides to share, and new friends are always welcome~", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "parag... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 119.11053143123951, "platformFee": 119.11053143123951, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716500112140 | 10000 | Austin | 1716500132069 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 5 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "77481e5832c5", "prob": 0.04543721139153312, "text": "10-15", "index": 0, "poolNo": 385.68131165870807, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8102.54452454604, "textFts": "'-15':2 '10':1", "contractId": "AVAAlDpuYE1LnQtKKsUQ", "resolverId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "creat... | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1639011767273 | 0 | [{"name": "SF Events", "slug": "sf-events", "groupId": "qSQNlQOaDWJhZJESqY12", "createdTime": 1716309426889}, {"name": "Taco Tuesday", "slug": "taco-tuesday", "groupId": "080ccb8d-6169-4d41-ab33-bbedbd0293a1", "createdTime": 1716309426900}] | ["sf-events", "taco-tuesday"] | 0.25 | 1716338370561 | 1716500130186 | {"694a6527e8b6": 50, "df98fe764968": 50} | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000001 | nHYxCQ3URAzfE2H7HgO6 | {"NO": 1369.0600642428326, "YES": 730.4281427221797} | 0.6520922859680764 | will-someone-take-desperate-measure-49cdddbe5b63 | 400 | Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2030? | 1893452340000 | Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.585719039122841 | False | basic | public | 1716310597103 | Ihor Kendiukhov | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Criteria for Resolution:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Desperate Measures:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The following act... | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.763448494586802, "platformFee": 5.763448494586802, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IhorKendiukhov | 1716455993537 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680382822335 | 0 | [{"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 1716310599364}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1716310599372}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 17163... | ["ai-safety", "technology-default", "ai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716370312061 | 1716328153287 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | Ee050Oi17eSNCdsF7R6B | {"NO": 804.225221755155, "YES": 1243.4327759798218} | 0.3927536837913124 | will-tucker-carlson-be-deplatformed | 251 | Will Tucker Carlson be deplatformed from YouTube by 2026? | 1767329940000 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.577718248412621 | False | basic | public | 1716314521337 | Haws | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves if Tucker Carlson's youtube channel @tuckercarlson is banned for any reason between now and Jan 1 2026.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.03984054672892934} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.200414435331388, "platformFee": 2.3668095848468322, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Haws | 1718854075155 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677434458766 | 0 | [{"name": "Tucker Carlson", "slug": "tucker-carlson", "groupId": "IitNuMFaTHSJpJXCCIK1", "createdTime": 1716314521927}] | ["tucker-carlson"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718854072092 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | ZCUakBpO0qtAhQ4mMuUK | {"NO": 992.161755063628, "YES": 1049.526293663298} | 0.1333684859411233 | will-2023-in-ai-predictions-make-th | 50 | Will "2023 in AI predictions" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.899812762135237 | False | basic | public | 1716314631368 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.006631514058876714} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4737063367020526, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718869225665 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1716314631687}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1718869222592 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000002 | yvO8aFh9mPu3ERkbHUgO | {"NO": 1064.5240360632781, "YES": 939.3869617994775} | 0.5312232116090148 | by-eoy-2026-will-iphones-have-an-ai | 6377.741957294771 | By EOY 2026, will iPhones have an AI that has access to and remembers everything you did on your phone? | 1798174740000 | WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.721157005554277 | False | basic | public | 1716315166429 | Zvi Mowshowitz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if at any point before resolution the newest iPhone model ships with an installed feature or app that, when on, has access to a full record of everything you do on your phone (or a full record once you turn it on), which can be accesse... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.03620401274639695} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 112.83573574576276, "platformFee": 60.99175391481985, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ZviMowshowitz | 1718656898593 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c | 49 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644001035848 | 0 | [{"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1716315167127}, {"name": "AI Impacts", "slug": "ai-impacts", "groupId": "q3Su0NeV9ta4DqhqlIEq", "createdTime": 1716315167125}, {"name": "iPhone", "slug": "iphone", "groupId": "d65113e9-fafc-47b4-882f-87219e778441", "createdTime": 1... | ["apple", "ai-impacts", "iphone"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718656895509 | 1716571874331 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000001 | tN6TLN23m7vnEiYZflBp | {"NO": 2134.358628280852, "YES": 468.52482368694757} | 0.8199977708057812 | will-the-first-agi-be-built-mostly | 3383.896251673876 | Will the first AGI be built mostly within the deep learning paradigm? | 2537387940000 | Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.661815472768641 | False | basic | public | 1716316277949 | Ihor Kendiukhov | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Definition of AGI is taken from this question: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708?r=SWhvcktlbmRpdWtob3Y", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 36.46751197731981, "platformFee": 27.452799957793076, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IhorKendiukhov | 1718407380019 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c | 21 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680382822335 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1716316278803}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1716316278813}] | ["openai", "ai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716975208364 | 1718407378673 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | P9sLp93Ugd3a8YEeRQpC | {"NO": 334.82006288771476, "YES": 2986.678848857868} | 0.10080390564143026 | will-roon-turn-against-openai-in-20 | 19756.007315261133 | Will Roon turn against OpenAI in 2024? | 1735718340000 | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.227244468369541 | False | basic | public | 1716317331607 | jackson polack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if before the end of 2024 roon's tweets are substantially and non-ironically negative on OpenAI for more than two weeks.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is, of course, extrem... | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -0.03535043067553738, "month": -0.03535043067553738} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 143.62427061197815, "platformFee": 137.45599320882488, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | jacksonpolack | 1720020174319 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c | 31 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670234252125 | 0 | [{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1716321223022}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1716321225624}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1716321231157},... | ["culture-default", "openai", "ai", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720020169355 | 1716362635133 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | 8AfhPeUN0IFZJigu1pRU | {"NO": 924.8235755379816, "YES": 1081.287314089381} | 0.4610032178778356 | will-the-group-of-seven-g7-add-a-co | 150 | Will the Group of Seven (G7) add a country before 2030? | 1893484740000 | GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.571281776087032 | False | basic | public | 1716318995270 | cshunter | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Group of Seven", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G7", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primar... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.473435827067225, "platformFee": 2.473435827067225, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | cash | 1716392049879 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1669744545591 | 0 | [{"name": "🌎 Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "groupId": "2wNGnksxJzypXZtiTLNL", "createdTime": 1716318996047}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1716318996048}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "cr... | ["geopolitics", "world-default", "politics-default", "democracy"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716392046214 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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rRc5MgunumVnCFjN1CPj | where-is-the-great-filter | 5503.9447839116965 | Where is the Great Filter? | 2537387940000 | Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1716319308280 | Ihor Kendiukhov | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "New options may be added later. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 128.65545244476846, "platformFee": 59.53632973890673, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2750 | IhorKendiukhov | 1719699813099 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c | 60 | 1 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "96cd107153a5", "prob": 0.11549981511679647, "text": "Emergence of life", "index": 0, "poolNo": 157.12467003793924, "userId": "Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1203.264261139575, "textFts": "'emerg':1 'life':3", "contractId": "rRc5MgunumVnCFjN1CPj", "createdTime": 1716319308280, "prob... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680382822335 | 0 | [{"name": "Physics", "slug": "physics-a6878c3ad095", "groupId": "92473248-f029-4aca-bc21-094d95940b06", "createdTime": 1716319308804}, {"name": "🧬 Biology", "slug": "biology", "groupId": "82OVufkY4rbpp5uizfqL", "createdTime": 1716319308815}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTi... | ["physics-a6878c3ad095", "biology", "ai", "science-default", "philosophy-af8706ce1d7e"] | 0.25 | 1719699808095 | 1716451013991 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8I4GXuAr8OtK6TmMsItZ | which-country-gets-the-bronze-at-th | 74841.09282111672 | Which country gets the bronze at the 2024 IIHF ice hockey world championship? | 1716745667172 | P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | 44f309bfe503 | public | 1716319528110 | Martin Modrák | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The 2024 IIHF World Championship will be hosted by Czechia from 10 to 26 May 2024. Which national team wins the bronze = 3rd place?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wik... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 183.73614026179428, "platformFee": 3.302069368792416, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716745667172 | 2000 | MartinModrak | 1716745667172 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c | 12 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "562612ebb04e", "prob": 0.0004176078905101426, "text": "Czechia", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.725489903282551, "userId": "P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 18491.66132447234, "textFts": "'czechia':1", "contractId": "8I4GXuAr8OtK6TmMsItZ", "resolverId": "P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3", "crea... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1672234503136 | 0 | [{"name": "Ice Hockey", "slug": "ice-hockey", "groupId": "68ee6874-3058-4c8f-ae72-5b8a764c8741", "createdTime": 1716319528551}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1716319528566}] | ["ice-hockey", "sports-default"] | 0.25 | 1716737863220 | 1716319637554 | {"44f309bfe503": 100} | P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
covjrSDhzeAeLmDQmReS | what-do-you-miss-most-from-before-t | 0 | What do you miss most from before the pivot? | 1735707540000 | RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1716320577352 | Arky | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I forgot to add something put it in the comments. I’m actually not positive that alts are getting banned but I thought I saw something about that.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | Arky | 1716436673986 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQN_M4pd9jLZ5rJw6o8dYiJLjJ8C33gC5taqyV8YKL07o=s96-c | 30 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696787160354 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1716321281539}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 1716436672468 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
lapK2kPrZT4UoCh2qWxc | who-will-be-the-next-permanent-chel | 16331.981105770039 | Who will be the next permanent Chelsea manager? | 1717445066812 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | 88626d93190d | public | 1716322793289 | Simon Grayson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Chelsea have announced that they are parting ways with their manager, Mauricio Pochettino:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.theguardian.com/football/article/2024/may/21/mauricio-poc... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 125.67924832471361, "platformFee": 19.02515310354474, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717445066812 | 2250 | SimonGrayson | 1717445108579 | 0 | 15 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "279da9b53ec7", "prob": 0.0008330833881193894, "text": "Jose Mourinho", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.484435177308, "userId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12574.61247928124, "textFts": "'jose':1 'mourinho':2", "contractId": "lapK2kPrZT4UoCh2qWxc", "resolverId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680512856506 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1716322793868}, {"name": "Premier League 2024-2025", "slug": "premier-league-20242025", "groupId": "307ecfd7-be33-485c-884b-75c61d1f51d4", "createdTime": 1716322793873}, {"name": "Premier League", "slug": "premiere-league",... | ["football", "premier-league-20242025", "premiere-league", "premier-league-20232024", "chelseafc"] | 0.25 | 1717424566889 | 1717445107192 | {"88626d93190d": 100} | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | True | prob-desc | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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uHfjO7w9ENUc8avL3diV | will-sensex-crash-if-the-bjp-fails | 7720.972673844381 | Will SENSEX crash if the BJP fails to form a majority in the 2024 elections? | 1717759039362 | Or9iYF6aaVUdpXk0u92NcUu4Y6A3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | f920c74c743f | public | 1716325599389 | abhimanyu | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the BJP alone wins an absolute majority in the ongoing [2024 Lok Sabha election](", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Indian_general_election", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 73.53377020209088, "platformFee": 9.854100413653153, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717759039362 | 1750 | abhimanyu | 1717759039362 | 0 | 2 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "2c423c99c0f5", "prob": 0.004867488454288183, "text": ">80,000", "index": 0, "poolNo": 24.982991217195377, "userId": "Or9iYF6aaVUdpXk0u92NcUu4Y6A3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5107.641657370465, "textFts": "'000':2 '80':1", "contractId": "uHfjO7w9ENUc8avL3diV", "resolverId": "Or9iYF6aaVUdpXk0u92NcUu4Y6A3", "c... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690904256327 | 0 | [{"name": "Indian Politics", "slug": "indian-politics", "groupId": "380a81e3-5753-4ae9-89ab-6241a62e1aff", "createdTime": 1716325599836}, {"name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "groupId": "i5JOzjrK5ZMHPSkhgzoi", "createdTime": 1716325599837}, {"name": "🇮🇳 India", "slug": "india", "groupId": "Y2J00UcVhr3wKq2lAOAy"... | ["indian-politics", "elections", "india", "politics-default", "elections-world"] | 0.25 | 1717759011899 | 1716375106819 | {"f920c74c743f": 100} | Or9iYF6aaVUdpXk0u92NcUu4Y6A3 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Xto3psXEGudkg7RrgWas | who-will-accept-the-challenge-by-ru | 12180.68820109157 | Who will accept the challenge by Rudyard Lynch (Whatifalthist) for a debate held by August 13, 2024? | 1723611540000 | mccteV9huKglUqaOR8DkYIWeu0S2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.250592339024397 | False | plus | public | 1716328495598 | The Not Too Distant Future | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F_hhiudhJFo.JPG?alt=media&token=9090a135-a71e-438d-bb38-d7d9f062685a", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.you... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 295.8761095096767, "platformFee": 11.332247475645424, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 18750 | TheNotTooDistantFuture | 1719867611019 | 0 | 21 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "b8c3b0597113", "prob": 0.3664755463260993, "text": "Destiny", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2725.4579694292884, "userId": "mccteV9huKglUqaOR8DkYIWeu0S2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4711.485632270417, "textFts": "'destini':1", "contractId": "Xto3psXEGudkg7RrgWas", "createdTime": 1716328495598, "probChanges": {"day": ... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709940537659 | 0 | [{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1716328495965}, {"name": "🎙️ Debate", "slug": "debate", "groupId": "gOk2vU8cIw0cnCKM4GAh", "createdTime": 1716328495963}, {"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwM... | ["entertainment", "debate", "destinygg", "internet", "vaush"] | 0.25 | 1719867606747 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 7B1RHOYKkSVIe3mU9CNO | {"NO": 881.9078865124529, "YES": 1133.905269806066} | 0.43749485598312204 | robotic-car-vacuum-beast-by-mid-203 | 250 | Robotic car vacuum beast by mid 2035 | 2066885940000 | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57278669244829 | False | basic | public | 1716328849579 | Ernie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I want to buy a robovacuum that will crawl around my car vacuuming up all the dust and sand from hiking and constantly visiting the beach. It should be able to just go into my car and clean it all up, including under the mats, etc. It should self-e... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.064150001539299, "platformFee": 4.064150001539299, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Ernie | 1716683736235 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668384110640 | 0 | [{"name": "Robotics", "slug": "robotics", "groupId": "w6Q4c8YIK0W5GMslvGbd", "createdTime": 1716328850031}, {"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1716683729735}, {"name": "Epic sci-fi", "slug": "epic-scifi", "groupId": "b0800dce-70d1-4bf4-9327-41ad9b27369c", "created... | ["robotics", "futurism", "epic-scifi", "requests-for-inventions"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716368317099 | 1716328866903 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.16269553235123843 | Nf5OsAX1uXSgbyUaQHaH | {"NO": 1229.2727461565105, "YES": 5298.222449273201} | 0 | weekly-manifold-lottery-tickets-25x | 27901.983862374575 | Weekly Manifold lottery tickets 25x return possible | 1717019940000 | HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.657741748925062 | True | basic | NO | public | 1716329280709 | Niel S | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have placed No limit orders at 4%. If you are interested in this lottery, you can purchase as many Yes shares at 4% as you wish, provided my No limit orders do not run out. Or bet on NO if you looking for a +EV bet.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 128.68939535361696, "platformFee": 35.66610679670702, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717159212919 | 2000 | NielS | 1717019940000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI1f_-sQy0dE4yU_6hAgPvUVI-PGSnuCHMzFZT5AlSj=s96-c | 31 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1710643823998 | 0 | [{"name": "Lotteries", "slug": "lotteries", "groupId": "MdqNUtni6p3Jc1R0WvBL", "createdTime": 1716329281020}, {"name": "Gambling", "slug": "gambling", "groupId": "PqwKmXzv3O7b1ICBAZ4H", "createdTime": 1716329281026}, {"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1716... | ["lotteries", "gambling", "fairlyrandom", "economics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716994903904 | 1717159201980 | 0.04 | HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | hiHOLY60nGFU2K67tlWi | {"NO": 535.1550708366071, "YES": 1868.6172559977826} | 0.22263134693016928 | will-biden-accept-crypto-in-2024 | 1353 | Will Biden accept crypto in 2024? | 1735689540000 | DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.63205941593834 | False | basic | public | 1716329460701 | Antoine Dusséaux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as yes if the Biden campaign accepts donations in at least one cryptocurrency (including stablecoins) by the end of 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 0.04883536449610859} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 17.733397834644034, "platformFee": 13.19317196146829, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | adssx | 1719347013065 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu8p4k4KE9xrnxs6Iop5Df3i3SjHGfXZPYd0NPoUvA=s96-c | 8 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1664698473109 | 0 | [{"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1716329461079}, {"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1716329475677}, {"name": "🅱️ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "... | ["the-life-of-biden", "crypto-speculation", "bitcoin", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719347009722 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | sc38bqeq9sRaEHWPxB33 | {"NO": 805.1588939579176, "YES": 1241.990875967727} | 0.3933072732568866 | will-it-be-possible-to-significantl-7550a202407a | 270 | Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2031? | 1930517940000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.577639638010785 | False | basic | public | 1716329774400 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if there is a credible clinical trial that demonstrates an intervention significantly reducing the progression of atherosclerosis before January 1st 2031.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.011403823827861481} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.560209159239151, "platformFee": 0.6731793059753223, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | RemNi | 1719522300902 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | [{"name": "Heart Health", "slug": "heart-health", "groupId": "bcaafaa6-1a4b-4d3f-b440-c29b2fcdbcf1", "createdTime": 1716329774751}, {"name": "Atherosclerosis", "slug": "atherosclerosis", "groupId": "f4b1acd1-ac96-4869-8903-d91621d4f8b4", "createdTime": 1716329774752}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "... | ["heart-health", "atherosclerosis", "science-default", "biotech", "medicine"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719522297608 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 6J2uS1YH7NsDqNXHFZLX | {"NO": 499.6442901600225, "YES": 2001.4238523164695} | 0.1997723619258482 | will-justin-verlander-hit-his-2024 | 1024 | Will Justin Verlander hit his 2024 IP contract trigger? | 1727852340000 | dp5qoJAOmqgfNGxbRm00x8b9bU03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.646654676702706 | False | basic | public | 1716332537679 | Mactuary | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Justin Verlander's contract has a $35M player option that vests with 140IP in 2024. Will he hit that mark?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question will resolve YES when he hits that mark or N... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.04527308738361202, "month": -0.24550030023323002} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.65655108078915, "platformFee": 1.9195966027412574, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Mactuary | 1719854720949 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682788513810 | 0 | [{"name": "MLB", "slug": "mlb", "groupId": "RFwfANk54JSXOwj4qwsW", "createdTime": 1716332538055}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1716332538056}] | ["mlb", "sports-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719854717750 | 1719250529936 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
gT1o9AbV1cuLNgYhOmLI | in-which-month-will-cz-be-taken-int | 8986.119787925827 | In which month will CZ be taken into BOP custody? | 1717214340000 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1716333292990 | Haws | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will add more answers after each one resolves so I do not have to remake questions. This question will continue to resolve NO until CZ is in the custody of the Federal Bureau of Prisons.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBre... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 92.99936522029232, "platformFee": 11.363789058818478, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717226512454 | 1000 | Haws | 1717214340000 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "dad416d4c927", "prob": 0.96, "text": "May 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1156.2323629888967, "userId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 54.054878587237994, "textFts": "'2024':2 'may':1", "contractId": "gT1o9AbV1cuLNgYhOmLI", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkd... | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677434458766 | 0 | [{"name": "Binance", "slug": "binance", "groupId": "DLuKOeXGWESoStfOez08", "createdTime": 1716333293454}, {"name": "Changpeng Zhao", "slug": "changpeng-zhao", "groupId": "7c7fcfae-a689-4f02-99d5-fe1159c1e0f0", "createdTime": 1716333293460}, {"name": "CZ", "slug": "cz", "groupId": "edcf292e-d08f-406a-adfd-37718e3e18d2",... | ["binance", "changpeng-zhao", "cz", "crypto-speculation"] | 0.25 | 1717203646594 | 1717189425717 | 0.02 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
peEdhWcSRqzF1HyvELUi | to-which-is-the-last-round-that-jan | 25202.671582616094 | To which is the last round that Jannik Sinner will advance in the 2024 FRENCH OPEN tournament? 🎾 | 1717740000000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | 3c1fd4d82ebc | public | 1716338089648 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will close at 1:00 AM CT on the morning of scheduled semifinal match and will be resolved with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.atptour.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 87.96315001716792, "platformFee": 3.314185118143533, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717789601226 | 1750 | ovals | 1717789956896 | 0 | 17 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "1d29766c2f08", "prob": 0.006776640395718714, "text": "R128", "index": 0, "poolNo": 29.506397269827612, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4324.627147793137, "textFts": "'r128':1", "contractId": "peEdhWcSRqzF1HyvELUi", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTim... | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | [{"name": "French Open (Roland Garros)", "slug": "french-open-roland-garros", "groupId": "tLyLJUZPPPZFSrhAzYkB", "createdTime": 1716338090067}, {"name": "ATP Tour", "slug": "atp-tour", "groupId": "a841d448-0950-41ba-a122-91322746e7dc", "createdTime": 1716338090065}, {"name": "Jannik Sinner", "slug": "jannik-sinner", "g... | ["french-open-roland-garros", "atp-tour", "jannik-sinner", "tennis", "sports-default"] | 0.25 | 1717731178549 | 1717789955816 | {"3c1fd4d82ebc": 100} | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3397848610773035 | WofQVKI1kqwLidH29Xdp | {"NO": 4820.6210919548785, "YES": 8899.382992710445} | 0.21800467328140566 | will-tesla-serve-more-fully-autonom | 20065.17305584392 | Will Tesla serve more fully autonomous rides in 2025 than Waymo? | 1767254340000 | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.4684804946594587 | False | basic | public | 1716338278450 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For example, Waymo ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "claims 700k", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://waymo.com/blog/2023/12/waymo-significantly-outperforms-comparable-human-benchmarks-over-7-million/", "class": "brea... | BINARY | {"day": 0.0013927696730307582, "week": -0.005864521671960998, "month": -0.0319953267185942} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 310.9915896481777, "platformFee": 21.72631642650898, "liquidityFee": 0} | 47.509044011189864 | 6000 | JamesGrugett | 1720164875431 | 0 | 41 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1639087027342 | 0 | [{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1716338278761}, {"name": "Waymo", "slug": "waymo", "groupId": "68b1ade9-99ec-4d42-8da3-615ec79e30bd", "createdTime": 1716338278766}, {"name": "Self-Driving Vehicles", "slug": "selfdriving-vehicles", "groupId": ... | ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "waymo", "selfdriving-vehicles", "tesla"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720164872248 | 1719349527482 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | PfCuB0VSA1Eogniymzb0 | {"NO": 986.5801504647695, "YES": 1013.6023915836017} | 1 | rigged-gambling-game | 52.57836081427486 | Rigged Gambling Game | 1716958740000 | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570361677500921 | True | basic | YES | public | 1716338373054 | Plasma Ballin' | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to either YES or NO. I won't say how, but it is rigged to ensure that the house always wins, even without the house betting on it. If you can figure out how, perhaps you can profit.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9932561664496338, "platformFee": 0.8259914356737007, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717015995089 | 1000 | PlasmaBallin | 1717016099406 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668786016313 | 0 | [{"name": "Gambling", "slug": "gambling", "groupId": "PqwKmXzv3O7b1ICBAZ4H", "createdTime": 1716338373386}] | ["gambling"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716908793194 | 1717016098099 | 0.49 | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4999999999999998 | 89TD0WfmDMXWnG5Ob5gK | {"NO": 146.12591616964693, "YES": 6843.413038649786} | 0 | will-destiny-talk-to-erin-straighte | 8940.0934389059 | Will Destiny talk to Erin (Straighterade) on stream by the end of June 2024? | 1719817140000 | foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.871788017775778 | True | basic | NO | public | 1716339491559 | Punished Furry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Can on in person or voice call as long as it's on a stream, any stream.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Destiny is currently reviewing her debate against an IDF dude on SOScast. It's possible ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.12810091013827676, "month": -0.4202591468458159} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 107.99275597431934, "platformFee": 11.880365127933327, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719858180819 | 1000 | PunishedFurry | 1719817140000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3go4lmW16N7oUihjjm8IiRRoMb5Dw2cMM1P1-g=s96-c | 19 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1666746014983 | 0 | [{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1716339491937}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1716339491944}, {"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"... | ["culture-default", "technology-default", "destinygg", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719809802874 | 1719846831416 | 0.02 | foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
oU2NIpy3uaAxLLLVBwmA | will-llama-3-405b-have-open-weights | 300 | Will Llama 3 405B have open weights? | 1716344368914 | zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1716343872634 | Mira | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1793081686802280576"}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the first applicable option to the market creator( ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2", "label": "Mira"}}, {"text"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.384196145747859, "platformFee": 4.384196145747859, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716344368914 | 1000 | Mira | 1716344420590 | 0 | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "641a9df38cdf", "prob": 0.34, "text": "YES - fully open", "index": 0, "poolNo": 180.02662614385332, "userId": "zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 347.17086765853367, "textFts": "'fulli':2 'open':3 'yes':1", "contractId": "oU2NIpy3uaAxLLLVBwmA", "resolution": "CANCEL", "resolverId": "zAN... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1672765622992 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1716343873090}] | ["ai"] | 0.25 | 1716344328382 | 1716344419189 | 0.34 | zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
WI5yqQbb9V64KzNexsRB | belgian-election-which-party-wins-t | 41973.27057632661 | Belgian Election: Which party wins the most seats? | 1717970340000 | HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | dc3d18c6d73d | public | 1716344111585 | Niel S | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Belgium is scheduled to hold federal elections for the Chamber of Representatives (lower house of parliament) on June 9, 2024.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the New... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 95.422146633532, "platformFee": 20.904097055672718, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718021910189 | 2500 | NielS | 1717970340000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI1f_-sQy0dE4yU_6hAgPvUVI-PGSnuCHMzFZT5AlSj=s96-c | 5 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "fea38c8ba087", "prob": 0.02388741336827657, "text": "VB", "index": 0, "poolNo": 65.18135199148878, "userId": "HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2663.5088995052347, "textFts": "'vb':1", "contractId": "WI5yqQbb9V64KzNexsRB", "resolverId": "HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3", "createdTime": 1... | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1710643823998 | 0 | [{"name": "Belgian Politics", "slug": "belgian-politics", "groupId": "c90ecff9-f2a3-4ba2-b154-f71a7980d97a", "createdTime": 1716344111964}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1716344111967}, {"name": "Belgium", "slug": "belgium", "groupId": "70529ede-a... | ["belgian-politics", "politics-default", "belgium", "elections-world"] | 0.25 | 1717963436134 | {"dc3d18c6d73d": 100} | HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1JeOHgcQAB9oNTmBOaTR | will-llama-3-405b-have-open-weights-49202f0df5bf | 4596.327221050991 | Will Llama 3 405B have open weights? | 1735718340000 | zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1716344394720 | Mira | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1793081686802280576"}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the first applicable option to the market creator( ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2", "label": "Mira"}}, {"text"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 58.44195174008089, "platformFee": 20.811854234728823, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Mira | 1719673818103 | 0 | 59 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "ba85af6b0016", "prob": 0.6799999999999999, "text": "YES - fully open", "index": 0, "poolNo": 420.81270576508683, "userId": "zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 198.02950859533502, "textFts": "'fulli':2 'open':3 'yes':1", "contractId": "1JeOHgcQAB9oNTmBOaTR", "createdTime": 1716344394720... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1672765622992 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1716344395054}] | ["ai"] | 0.25 | 1718411013181 | 1719662358230 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
fUkOQ47wKasrPPzwThZZ | will-the-ticket-price-for-disneylan | 0 | Will the ticket price for Disneyland in China increase by 10% by the end of May 2024? | 1716479940000 | iyOGd8eMSYNLsPErxvose2j6pxY2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1716344592878 | arielho | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716479940948 | arielho | 1716344593141 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKtRm9Tev-XqouGITnzLciKOrO4kcevWV6cM0MlqPTXrSCraQ=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715222428704 | 0 | [{"name": "🇨🇳 China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1716344593141}] | ["china"] | 0.25 | ["9a495508733b", "a01ae6871d60"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | TYL0dZ154Frvkro532sf | {"NO": 100.5037815259216, "YES": 9949.87437106623} | 0 | did-keith-gill-roaringkitty-sell-hi | 9004.376394448254 | Did Keith Gill (RoaringKitty) sell his X account? | 1717192740000 | HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849721441923052 | True | basic | NO | public | 1716344808069 | Niel S | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is confirmed by May 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET that the Twitter account @TheRoaringKitty (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/TheRoaringKitty", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.010000000000000009} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 28.748569017028945, "platformFee": 25.753454364995765, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717257316652 | 1000 | NielS | 1717192740000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI1f_-sQy0dE4yU_6hAgPvUVI-PGSnuCHMzFZT5AlSj=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1710643823998 | 0 | [{"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1716344808374}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1716344808376}, {"name": "GameStop", "slug": "gamestop", "groupId": "78d8b01a-e8db-47d6-842d-15b55f5290... | ["twitter", "economics-default", "gamestop", "meme-stocks", "stocks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717181225593 | 0.01 | HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
R7NouC55U4eDVyoKmjq1 | what-is-the-greatest-decade-in-cine | 0 | What is the greatest decade in cinema? | 1735707540000 | dYLpkCCilcRnDhTXK5eSX0oHK3x1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1716345331276 | ReeMARKable | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Make your case in the comments for the best decade in movie history. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | ReeMARKable | 1717213192959 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697544913258 | 0 | [{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1716345331536}, {"name": "🎥 Movies", "slug": "movies", "groupId": "KSeNIu7AWgiBBM5FqVuB", "createdTime": 1716345331544}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lg... | ["culture-default", "movies", "entertainment"] | 0.25 | 1717213191727 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | ES9ZPQVbfoKkFIHGyXT8 | {"NO": 141.83844294356632, "YES": 7050.274800308345} | 0 | biden-takes-drug-test-before-trump | 14330.65777983341 | Biden takes drug test before Trump debate? | 1719525540000 | HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.869920101261826 | True | basic | NO | public | 1716349393278 | Niel S | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On May 17 it was reported that Trump wants Biden to take a drug test before the first debate, stating \"I'm going to demand a drug test. I don't want him coming in like at the State of the Union. He was as high as a kite!\"", "type": "text"}, {"typ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.01972138621102052, "month": -0.036669132002193947} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 45.58443114747929, "platformFee": 35.004936720711555, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719708878394 | 1000 | NielS | 1719525540000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI1f_-sQy0dE4yU_6hAgPvUVI-PGSnuCHMzFZT5AlSj=s96-c | 29 | 10 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1710643823998 | 0 | [{"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1716349393535}, {"name": "Drugs", "slug": "drugs", "groupId": "6277e258-91d0-4621-8487-f98ffa56b0c5", "createdTime": 1716349393539}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoM... | ["the-life-of-biden", "drugs", "politics-default", "us-politics", "drug-use"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719498307752 | 1719698443804 | 0.02 | HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999806 | 4PabxE0wUpNyeC067y47 | {"NO": 9949.874371066191, "YES": 100.50378152592157} | 1 | will-xcomtwitter-users-be-able-to-h | 11054.894280659068 | Will x.com/Twitter users be able to hide their likes without subscribing to premium by the end of 2024? | 1718228421849 | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849721441923048 | True | basic | YES | public | 1716351516589 | jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At the moment the only way to hide one's likes is by subscriping to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "x.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://x.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.09631049302267802} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 63.83704231965117, "platformFee": 47.02651635912815, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718228421849 | 1000 | jim | 1718228421849 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690863320225 | 0 | [{"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1716351516899}, {"name": "twitter", "slug": "twitter-978bc972856f", "groupId": "4335feb1-4fb4-4f01-9721-c8b574c923c2", "createdTime": 1716351516900}, {"name": "x.com", "slug": "xcom", "groupId": "b1ee600c-797f-4477-9c29-939... | ["twitter", "twitter-978bc972856f", "xcom"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718228408993 | 1716351818227 | 0.99 | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2977843270870655 | QcS2GP6QnwbPTxcqL3su | {"NO": 1620.0556935795353, "YES": 2471.1347817853343} | 0.21753523812292344 | will-the-next-president-of-the-unit-d748870d920b | 29417.051233189395 | Will the next President of the United States die in an office? [Mod Note: Pun Trap] | 1924991940000 | HrA6GjQdKRa7rFaDe0NlcftnDt02 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.75363628892088 | False | basic | public | 1716351951238 | Timothy Bandors | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The next President of the United States will be inaugurated on 25 January 2025. Will he or she die while in an office?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves yes if they die in an offic... | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.03081490412343635, "month": -0.03925687050541751} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 496.9749031271354, "platformFee": 133.00861764162275, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2000 | TimothyBandors | 1720111791914 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcw5cD4NDESa0IBg9dcxZMuZHrXSqKGycGYx3y_noFFKqs=s96-c | 170 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690819422060 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1716351951601}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1716351951602}] | ["us-politics", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720111788767 | 1716434091388 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
wkqPm8Oe8XFCuogs2Kes | once-realmoney-cashouts-are-enabled | 2928.3731773888676 | Once real-money cashouts are enabled, will Manifold allow its staff to trade? | 1718949540000 | uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1716355975098 | David Chee | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Seems sussy for Manifold staff to trade on markets when real money is on the line and we have the final say on how to resolve it.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If mods have a position we usually ask them... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 21.965749399317914, "platformFee": 19.324823650601278, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1250 | SirSalty | 1718583590555 | 0 | 17 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "5b37e4d3bbd7", "prob": 0.07024785352909912, "text": "None will be allowed to", "index": 0, "poolNo": 85.89798102657427, "userId": "uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1136.8864417172795, "textFts": "'allow':4 'none':1", "contractId": "wkqPm8Oe8XFCuogs2Kes", "createdTime": 1716355975098,... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650599919735 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1716355975492}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1716355975497}] | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 1718583587426 | 1716449518962 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | vG0wZOolvKHfxStDlJj1 | {"NO": 993.2813890518802, "YES": 1006.7640560088748} | 0.49662940984908854 | will-adam-marblestone-win-a-nobel-p-8b5985378b0f | 7 | Will Henry (@arithmoquine) win a Nobel prize? | 1716357160040 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570340394632957 | True | basic | CANCEL | public | 1716357148618 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.11797199556257676, "platformFee": 0.11797199556257676, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716357160040 | 1000 | StochasticParrot | 1716357433509 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716357158078 | 0.5 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000001 | nTijNUejZ3L7JLEEctCj | {"NO": 466.86026363662927, "YES": 2141.968545813801} | 0 | will-enough-tory-mps-sign-letters-o | 3803.9211628695007 | Will enough Tory MPs sign letters of no confidence to meet the typical threshold for a no confidence vote by June? | 1716620340000 | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.662697248241805 | True | basic | NO | public | 1716393927004 | Savior of Plant | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It's unclear whether a no confidence vote could actually be triggered preceding a planned election, so I've created this market. This market closes a bit early so I can recover some of my liquidity. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 44.18445142318772, "platformFee": 14.146450149767201, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717197780025 | 1000 | SaviorofPlant | 1716620340000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | 29 | 0 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698371327350 | 0 | [{"name": "🇬🇧 UK", "slug": "uk", "groupId": "m9vlFjXUHNgGgU9OLK1Y", "createdTime": 1716393927354}, {"name": "Europe", "slug": "europe", "groupId": "ue52QI4BQgJgAJJNjLHr", "createdTime": 1716393927356}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1716393927439... | ["uk", "europe", "politics-default", "uk-politics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716619906449 | 1716430369035 | 0.18 | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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