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At any point before start of 2050, will a country named Chechnya (or similar) be a member of the UN?
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cpmm-1
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1716306415767
Gaston Kessler
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Should the Democratic Party Be Classified as a Terrorist Group?
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none
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1000000
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Kakonomics
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taco-tuesday-0430-secret-handshake
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Taco Tuesday 05/21: Party Games
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When will the total market capitalization of prediction markets exceed 1 trillion USD?
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10.086843800757144
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Ihor Kendiukhov
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will-donald-trump-sue-over-biopic-a
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Will Donald Trump Sue over biopic at Cannes? 🎥
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9.773686576798244
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NO
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Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2030?
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cpmm-1
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9.585719039122841
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1716310597103
Ihor Kendiukhov
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IhorKendiukhov
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Will the S&P stock index close higher on May 22 than it closed on May 21?
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cpmm-1
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9.571849848404206
True
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NO
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1716311074453
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JimFix
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Who will win the 2032 United States presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]
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Which question would you respond most positively to if asked by a stranger?
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Will Tucker Carlson be deplatformed from YouTube by 2026?
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Will "2023 in AI predictions" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
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9.899812762135237
False
basic
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1716314631368
Less Wrong
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LessWrong
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0.14
1718869222592
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PqCNFEdlD6mTmg0Qinhw
who-will-hunter-biden-vote-for-in-t
0
Who will Hunter Biden vote for in the 2024 USA election?
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rYQvUSe7BEdrDKpCvBgfwZPHVzB3
none
0
1000000
False
public
1716314736964
Владимир Путин (пародия)
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
POLL
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0
AltPutin
1716314737356
0
https://firebasestorage.…52c-7233d2ad1b7d
11
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0.13333333333333333
https://storage.googleap…8bd525ab5309.jpg
1682436949304
0
[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1716314737331}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1716314737335}, {"name": "Hunter Biden", "slug": "hunter-biden"...
["us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "hunter-biden", "the-life-of-biden", "donald-trump"]
0.25
0
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yvO8aFh9mPu3ERkbHUgO
{"NO": 1064.5240360632781, "YES": 939.3869617994775}
0.5312232116090148
by-eoy-2026-will-iphones-have-an-ai
6377.741957294771
By EOY 2026, will iPhones have an AI that has access to and remembers everything you did on your phone?
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WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2
cpmm-1
0
8.721157005554277
False
basic
public
1716315166429
Zvi Mowshowitz
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if at any point before resolution the newest iPhone model ships with an installed feature or app that, when on, has access to a full record of everything you do on your phone (or a full record once you turn it on), which can be accesse...
BINARY
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ZviMowshowitz
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0.13333333333333333
1644001035848
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0.5
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0.13999999999999999
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475
Will "What's Going on With OpenAI's Messaging?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
1769904000000
h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13
cpmm-1
0
9.943775906706364
False
basic
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1716315180152
Less Wrong
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...
BINARY
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1000
LessWrong
1716387419577
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0.13333333333333333
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1706554674237
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[{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1716315181949}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1716387408777}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8Jkl...
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1716387386545
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will-the-first-agi-be-built-mostly
3383.896251673876
Will the first AGI be built mostly within the deep learning paradigm?
2537387940000
Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1
cpmm-1
0
9.661815472768641
False
basic
public
1716316277949
Ihor Kendiukhov
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Definition of AGI is taken from this question: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708?r=SWhvcktlbmRpdWtob3Y", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "...
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IhorKendiukhov
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will-roon-turn-against-openai-in-20
19756.007315261133
Will Roon turn against OpenAI in 2024?
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cpmm-1
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7.227244468369541
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basic
public
1716317331607
jackson polack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if before the end of 2024 roon's tweets are substantially and non-ironically negative on OpenAI for more than two weeks.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is, of course, extrem...
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jacksonpolack
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1720020169355
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would-you-consider-voting-for-domin
0
Would you consider voting for Dominic Cummings' new political party?
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xh2QtJ0WuKQFK3nyXsxDRxBhqYB3
none
0
1000000
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1716317810428
IY
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
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vitamind
1716317810734
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[{"name": "Dominic Cummings", "slug": "dominic-cummings", "groupId": "db4fcbf3-600d-41a5-85fd-e59183821dbb", "createdTime": 1716317810734}]
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what-will-be-true-of-ww3
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What will be true of WW3?
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cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1716317935191
Ihor Kendiukhov
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "New options may be added later. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
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IhorKendiukhov
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ONLY_CREATOR
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Will the Group of Seven (G7) add a country before 2030?
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cpmm-1
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9.571281776087032
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1716318995270
cshunter
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Group of Seven", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G7", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primar...
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cash
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lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-88
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[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 88)
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cpmm-multi-1
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1716319282295
komplexkonjugat
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MULTIPLE_CHOICE
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komplexkonjugat
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ANYONE
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where-is-the-great-filter
5503.9447839116965
Where is the Great Filter?
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cpmm-multi-1
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10.586609649448985
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basic
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1716319308280
Ihor Kendiukhov
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MULTIPLE_CHOICE
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IhorKendiukhov
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ONLY_CREATOR
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which-country-gets-the-bronze-at-th
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Which country gets the bronze at the 2024 IIHF ice hockey world championship?
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cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
basic
44f309bfe503
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1716319528110
Martin Modrák
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MULTIPLE_CHOICE
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1716745667172
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MartinModrak
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covjrSDhzeAeLmDQmReS
what-do-you-miss-most-from-before-t
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What do you miss most from before the pivot?
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none
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1000000
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1716320577352
Arky
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I forgot to add something put it in the comments. I’m actually not positive that alts are getting banned but I thought I saw something about that.", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
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Arky
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0.13333333333333333
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1696787160354
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1716436672468
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who-will-be-the-next-permanent-chel
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Who will be the next permanent Chelsea manager?
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cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
basic
88626d93190d
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1716322793289
Simon Grayson
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MULTIPLE_CHOICE
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Do you like the changes from the Manifold pivot thus far?
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Will the WHO state that there is conclusive evidence that microplastics exposure reduces human fertility by 2026?
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Will the 1906 Dredge Act be substantially repealed before 2028?
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Robo-Palanquin - human-carrying robot available by mid 2034
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Who will accept the challenge by Rudyard Lynch (Whatifalthist) for a debate held by August 13, 2024?
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1716328849579
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Weekly Manifold lottery tickets 25x return possible
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cpmm-1
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NO
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Niel S
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Will Biden accept crypto in 2024?
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cpmm-1
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9.63205941593834
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1716329460701
Antoine Dusséaux
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will-it-be-possible-to-significantl-7550a202407a
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Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2031?
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cpmm-1
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9.577639638010785
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basic
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1716329774400
RemNi
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Will Justin Verlander hit his 2024 IP contract trigger?
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cpmm-1
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1716332537679
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in-which-month-will-cz-be-taken-int
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cpmm-multi-1
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10.586609649448985
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MKT
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1716333292990
Haws
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How high will the UK's CPI inflation figure published on 19th June be?
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