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0.5000000000000001 | zvqcWxBNwYolWl87kNF3 | {"NO": 100.50378152592111, "YES": 9949.874371066195} | 0 | will-wout-van-aert-win-a-stage-in-t | 11533.560016742216 | Will Wout van Aert win a stage in the 2024 Tour of Norway (2.Pro)? | 1716751441041 | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849721441923041 | True | basic | NO | public | 1716405217499 | Eliza | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Based on post-stage podium presentation of the stage win. Later DQ or other changes will not re-resolve.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes promptly after he is presented with the st... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 105.86438520285289, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716751441041 | 1000 | Eliza | 1716751441041 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680816506031 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1716405217787}, {"name": "🚲 Cycling", "slug": "road-bicycle-racing", "groupId": "2yisxJryUq9V5sG7P6Gy", "createdTime": 1716405217785}, {"name": "🚲 Peloton Discord", "slug": "peloton-discord", "groupId": "rIVWY1mvCrXz... | ["sports-default", "road-bicycle-racing", "peloton-discord"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716751434616 | 1716405245976 | 0.01 | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
jHE1eRWppfJ12EMR877S | how-many-people-will-participate-in-4f30738565ed | 614.6931582352981 | How many people will participate in my interpretability hackathon? | 1735685940000 | 51Wov1rCezNY5JHUuRcxdToLE872 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1716406310801 | Victor Levoso | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm planning to run a mechanistic interpretability hackaton on my interpretability discord server and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "itch.io", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://itch.io", "class": "break-anywhere ho... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.260078428902443, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1750 | VictorLevoso | 1717275173177 | 0 | 4 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "4044399dba14", "prob": 0.21123950656362822, "text": "[0,10]", "index": 0, "poolNo": 184.86190537086426, "userId": "51Wov1rCezNY5JHUuRcxdToLE872", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 690.2675075790819, "textFts": "'0':1 '10':2", "contractId": "jHE1eRWppfJ12EMR877S", "createdTime": 1716406310801, "probChanges": {"day":... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1645642518862 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1716406311719}, {"name": "Mechanistic interpretability", "slug": "mechanistic-interpretability", "groupId": "JwFENl9sVYNaFAvdAEJC", "createdTime": 1716406311718}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvv... | ["technology-default", "mechanistic-interpretability", "ai"] | 0.25 | 1716438431373 | 1717275172058 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
SlgCsCfLv4aCncWXCwW4 | when-will-i-have-earned-100-usd-in | 1035.3842277379451 | When will I have earned >=$100 USD via prize points on Manifold? (see desc) | 1767081540000 | 2DUMvA9R6nNXjQfyidwhKJitKBr2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1716406908795 | Noa Nabeshima | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All dates after the date the operationalization is reached will resolve YES. Otherwise after the end of each month resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only resolves YES if it seems li... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.52820066573725, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | NoaNabeshima | 1716866802067 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhGG2fLz1xZY60s5Zky2ne9wKGcZ1kXwE36DRdoyA=s96-c | 6 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "8bf33973fd81", "prob": 0.08079285898912729, "text": "June 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 74.11733619122782, "userId": "2DUMvA9R6nNXjQfyidwhKJitKBr2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 843.2575050828281, "textFts": "'2024':2 'june':1", "contractId": "SlgCsCfLv4aCncWXCwW4", "createdTime": 1716406908796, "probChanges": ... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1646363457920 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1716407248647}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 1716866798246 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | yOzyS8DUi0BS94ZHJrRa | {"NO": 100.50378152592111, "YES": 9949.874371066191} | 0.010000000000000004 | will-anne-hidalgo-dive-jump-swim-in | 13406.702805533141 | Will Anne Hidalgo dive / jump / swim in the Seine on June 23rd ? | 1719352740000 | WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849721441923073 | False | basic | public | 1716408717963 | Mich | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.lebonbon.fr/paris/current-events/now-we-know-the-date-for-anne-hidalgos-en/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.lebonbon.fr/paris/current-events/now-we-know-the-date-for-anne-hidalgos-en/", "class":... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5143817738819256} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 101.46895741856686, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Mich | 1719326523540 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c | 18 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702591853953 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1716408718226}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1716408718233}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", ... | ["sports-default", "science-default", "politics-default", "2024-summer-olympics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719326520510 | 1718151974270 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6OOAzzbz19eDxEAbHPNW | who-will-dive-jump-swim-in-the-sein | 990 | Who will dive / jump / swim in the Seine before Paris Olympis 2024 ? | 1722463140000 | WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1716409294098 | Mich | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.lebonbon.fr/paris/current-events/now-we-know-the-date-for-anne-hidalgos-en/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.lebonbon.fr/paris/current-events/now-we-know-the-date-for-anne-hidalgos-en/", "class":... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 29.88956196935112, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Mich | 1719169528585 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c | 9 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "6b73eec7c58f", "prob": 0.3591862932930268, "text": "Anne Hidalgo (Mayor of Paris)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 187.16903021311992, "userId": "WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 333.9227645130949, "textFts": "'ann':1 'hidalgo':2 'mayor':3 'pari':5", "contractId": "6OOAzzbz19eDxEAbHPNW", "cre... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702591853953 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1716409294408}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1716409294421}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", ... | ["sports-default", "science-default", "politics-default", "2024-summer-olympics"] | 0.25 | 1719169525352 | 1717454165256 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | 5ltp4oJ9QEnHDtdXaC1X | {"NO": 516.7557463031756, "YES": 1935.1502274602885} | 0.21075675488077564 | satellite-downed-by-offensive-opera | 5900.16968763182 | Satellite downed by offensive operation before 2026? | 1767243540000 | lcp9AJH0IYXGiM4lF5cq5BNbU083 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.594931789310749 | False | basic | public | 1716409352095 | Jared Kehlmann | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any artificial satellite constructed by humans and in orbit above the Kármán line (an altitude of 100 km [62 mi] above sea level) is intentionally and nonconsensually damaged to the point of nonfunction, destr... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 157.88145953486176, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JaredKehlmannb25e | 1717517195171 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcpewi8C4MGVVRgKSY3dm044qkORWShHWW48xARN-4xrQ=s96-c | 42 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1688048905555 | 0 | [{"name": "🌎 Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "groupId": "2wNGnksxJzypXZtiTLNL", "createdTime": 1716409352353}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1716409352356}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTim... | ["geopolitics", "space", "politics-default", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717517192042 | 1716501481122 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | 84h0XPlWnlAqlWThaC4L | {"NO": 2024.2313575496448, "YES": 494.01467686505686} | 0.8038258890855844 | will-nyc-close-an-entire-street-to | 1070.4280052754123 | Will NYC close an entire street to cars before 2050? | 2524712340000 | OFGIpCFT69fNGtojNGf1z6nHg4y1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.649220566051351 | False | basic | public | 1716409549207 | MF | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In an effort to incentivize use of public transport or micro-mobility schemes, urbanism advocates are calling for the closure of some streets to cars. These streets could be pedestrianized, made bus only, replaced with only cycling lanes, etc.", "t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.10706919263272763} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 23.34063717494297, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | costlySignal | 1718316899911 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1659482499752 | 0 | [{"name": "Urbanism", "slug": "urbanism", "groupId": "UEuJtl3q4AKowDdXnejA", "createdTime": 1716409549489}, {"name": "New York City", "slug": "new-york-city", "groupId": "93562589-3ef2-4bb1-aac2-7a74d8ee7617", "createdTime": 1716409549507}, {"name": "NYC", "slug": "nyc", "groupId": "ee59a64d-a74d-4be0-b4fd-8dfa7a80d00f... | ["urbanism", "new-york-city", "nyc"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718316896524 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
qV0g4sD17FPeYJkE3Egh | was-president-ebrahim-raisi-assassi | 0 | Was President Ebrahim Raisi assassinated? | 1719028740000 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1716409997566 | Haws | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES and NO votes ONLY resolves this question:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Haws/do-manifold-users-believe-president", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719028740998 | Haws | 1716411058950 | 0 | 72 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677434458766 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1716409997933}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.25 | 1716411057309 | ["041f6f694eb5"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | ebxquZuuhZ9qhNJVfIky | {"NO": 100.50378152592134, "YES": 9949.874371066207} | 0 | do-manifold-users-believe-president | 14930.193717171975 | Do Manifold users believe President Ebrahim Raisi was assassinated? | 1719028740000 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849721441923052 | True | basic | NO | public | 1716410016942 | Haws | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Yes and No votes to the following poll resolves this question (unsure is not counted):", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Haws/was-president-ebrahim-raisi-assassi?r=SGF3cw", "frameBorder": 0... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.03753201230320838} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 78.05811145119563, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719248400522 | 1000 | Haws | 1719248422155 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677434458766 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1716410017265}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718942242128 | 1719248420847 | 0.01 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
LpgObEEjrG7sP2Wu5uZi | who-will-win-the-2024-criterium-du | 11075.103698837836 | Who will win the 2024 Criterium du Dauphine? | 1717963211749 | 946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | 36adcd395408 | public | 1716410056042 | JAAM | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 99.22154859241529, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717963211749 | 1100 | egroj | 1717963211749 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "36adcd395408", "prob": 0.981838086174083, "text": "Primoz Roglic", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2133.3900452091557, "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 39.463172903732584, "textFts": "'primoz':1 'roglic':2", "contractId": "LpgObEEjrG7sP2Wu5uZi", "resolverId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1655411946178 | 0 | [{"name": "🚲 Cycling", "slug": "road-bicycle-racing", "groupId": "2yisxJryUq9V5sG7P6Gy", "createdTime": 1716410056390}, {"name": "🚲 Peloton Discord", "slug": "peloton-discord", "groupId": "rIVWY1mvCrXzAzPN8OcW", "createdTime": 1716410056400}] | ["road-bicycle-racing", "peloton-discord"] | 0.25 | 1717953632076 | 1717953677372 | {"36adcd395408": 100} | 946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | o4l6vlBgihShFHsKHTb3 | {"NO": 482.9801319055533, "YES": 2070.4785434021737} | 0.18914742446237065 | will-there-be-more-than-10-000-hold | 1405.0420560842929 | Will there be more than 10 000 holders on the market “AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]” by the end of 2025? | 1767653940000 | Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.654470136854165 | False | basic | public | 1716412060902 | Ihor Kendiukhov | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if the number of the position holders on the market “AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]” (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708?r=SWhvcktlbmRpdW... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.014894233580444366} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 30.01356812813107, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IhorKendiukhov | 1718470404882 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680382822335 | 0 | [{"name": "AGI", "slug": "agi", "groupId": "3cbc32f4-d3ca-405d-882a-dcdb194eb74f", "createdTime": 1716412061355}, {"name": "Meta-markets", "slug": "metamarkets", "groupId": "0112083b-1b7d-4e2a-80e8-929ba3f099a5", "createdTime": 1716412061642}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdT... | ["agi", "metamarkets", "ai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718470401819 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | GFR4qsJwrUNu2SDL80KW | {"NO": 990.4290787756051, "YES": 1009.6634089502164} | 0.49519163981349656 | will-there-be-a-romance-between-wed | 10 | Will there be a romance between Wednesday and Enid in Wednesday season 2? | 1767157140000 | EPsIwodccebvRi8BtwEAeJgBUxy2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570347697538162 | False | basic | public | 1716412491725 | Charlie Ruff | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the second season of the Netflix show ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Wednesday", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ", will there be a romance between Wednesday Addams and Enid Sinclair? This will resolve yes if the characte... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.33659104978357035, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | CharlieRuff | 1716420665287 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJQZtqM3ujb_sPij4qAeSKkSQVHoM_m3CuU_bM8ZYk18w=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695295059707 | 0 | [{"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId": "8isZHbaQMsoFz30XuZTo", "createdTime": 1716412491976}, {"name": "Entertainment", "slug": "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "groupId": "YjinY1aCMoxH9UyfXCrv", "createdTime": 1716412491996}] | ["tv", "entertainment-12ba84d9b720"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716420661713 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
vq0qbwE2Sj9SAsdJKQgB | would-you-pay-10month-for-a-badge-w | 0 | Would you pay $10/month for a badge with no functionality other than being cool? | 1719032340000 | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1716413057067 | Eliza | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you would probably do it, pick Yes. If you're unsure but you would probably be tempted, maybe the middle option. If it sounds stupid, pick No.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719032340480 | Eliza | 1716463539195 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | 117 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680816506031 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1716413057337}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1716413057383}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-business-future"] | 0.25 | 1716463537537 | ["3d3290dc4092"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
xiAOiM5bdnPWGhauRf44 | would-you-pay-10month-to-be-able-to | 0 | Would you pay $10/month to be able to create 15-20 new questions? | 1719032340000 | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1716413128283 | Eliza | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Think of it like a discount plan. You pay $10 and instead of being able to create just 10 questions with 10,000 mana, you would get 15 or 20 questions.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719032340480 | Eliza | 1716418051836 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | 55 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680816506031 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1716413128540}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1716413128542}] | ["manifold-business-future", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 1716418050519 | ["1282f6356c73"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | 60885.134620559686 | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | 1720383360000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1716413754789 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each answer contains a dilemma: Would you rather pick the first option (NO) or the second option (YES)? Bet NO, or YES, according to your opinion. 1 person = 1 vote (per answer), so having more shares does not make your vote count for more.", "type... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 768.6854026536846, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 5550 | Bayesian | 1719796870213 | 0 | 133 | 2 | ANYONE | [{"id": "cae724d28376", "prob": 0.14, "text": "Constantly feel like you have to sneeze (NO) -OR- Have hiccups for the rest of your life (YES) ", "index": 0, "poolNo": 200.59876489775309, "userId": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1246.2688896784975, "textFts": "'constant':1 'feel':2 'hiccup'... | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1716413755159}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1716413755152}, {"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8... | ["entertainment", "technology-default", "twitter", "manifold-chooses"] | 0.25 | True | 1719742342197 | 1719171105989 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | False | new | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13999999999999999 | b2cMgRW3ywG7vIX5oKI4 | {"NO": 1027.6491529905097, "YES": 845.743491243706} | 0.1651390991122922 | will-eis-xiii-reflections-on-anthro | 90 | Will "EIS XIII: Reflections on Anthropic’s SAE Rese..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.87788985921765 | False | basic | public | 1716415617091 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.818285785302261, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1716459343655 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1716415617656}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1716459340212 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | B6RdtkIMOXcpu1KCTgmA | {"NO": 1048.3477689304211, "YES": 953.8819365450188} | 0.5235901585435151 | will-texas-pass-school-voucher-legi | 50 | Will Texas pass school voucher legislation in 2025? | 1767254340000 | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57067945137204 | False | basic | public | 1716416974702 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this article", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/22/texas-republican-primary-school-vouchers-choice-00159219", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underl... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6522310695789, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JamesGrugett | 1716654476269 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1639087027342 | 0 | [{"name": "School choice", "slug": "school-choice", "groupId": "0e7c78a6-4b3c-4cb7-8461-6425495fe03b", "createdTime": 1716416974972}, {"name": "Texas", "slug": "texas", "groupId": "A4Z3W67n93LMKcZEILwf", "createdTime": 1716416974987}, {"name": "Education", "slug": "education", "groupId": "4db0060d-c187-4c1e-9d89-da6482... | ["school-choice", "texas", "education"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716654472636 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | qLUjXv9SRfIBWhm9cIWo | {"NO": 374.39590755778806, "YES": 2670.9693664203533} | 0.12293957337627255 | by-2025-will-there-be-a-letter-call | 8967.78229775857 | By 2025, will OpenAI employees call for Sam Altman resignation in a letter? | 1735689540000 | k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.726408692512432 | False | basic | public | 1716416984239 | Mikhail Samin⚡️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to Yes if before 2025, more than one current OpenAI employee signs a letter calling for Sam Altman to no longer be the CEO of OpenAI.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves No if Sam Altman ... | BINARY | {"day": -0.004096923487861656, "week": -0.07684099216114158, "month": -0.07151170962720403} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 179.61836884347144, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 50 | 1000 | ms | 1720189977705 | 0 | 68 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644678337190 | 0 | [{"name": "OpenAI Crisis", "slug": "openai-crisis", "groupId": "f81ebc23-0deb-4e38-b703-66ad59521727", "createdTime": 1716416984826}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1716416984842}, {"name": "Sam Altman", "slug": "sam-altman", "groupId": "1uWeVVcfTCgL7T2l7hJg", ... | ["openai-crisis", "openai", "sam-altman"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720189974618 | 1716482259496 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6807827377243201 | xA5k0OoRuGyVgZ7TrGJ1 | {"NO": 378793.1050437565, "YES": 19687.175790535955} | 1 | trump-vs-biden-odds-will-republican | 534252.6438052813 | Trump vs Biden Odds: Will Republicans lead in the Election Betting Odds party average on June 15th? | 1718434740000 | vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.257920536563828 | True | plus | YES | public | 1716418138184 | Manifold Politics | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution Source:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://electionbettingodds.com/PresidentialParty2024.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underlin... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.11970116682326948} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2774.9802607532824, "platformFee": 1774.9802607532824, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718632284584 | 51000 | ManifoldPolitics | 1718639821894 | 0 | 441 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1701801625125 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1716418138446}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1716418138443}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-... | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "the-life-of-biden", "politics-default", "us-politics", "donald-trump"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718433733709 | 1718639819765 | 0.98 | 946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7834859240998141 | svlyDFpTb96j160uQGqQ | {"NO": 6008.63216732153, "YES": 1186.841968602017} | 0.9482404274354042 | trump-vs-biden-odds-will-republican-bd5199ecf150 | 25767.627743730816 | Trump vs Biden Odds: Will Republicans lead in the Election Betting Odds party average on July 13th? | 1720853940000 | vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.450507978854795 | False | basic | public | 1716418874133 | Manifold Politics | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution Source:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://electionbettingodds.com/PresidentialParty2024.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underlin... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.03946219999708622, "month": 0.339795866804798} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 300.4237225812262, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2000 | ManifoldPolitics | 1720049188712 | 0 | 63 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1701801625125 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1716418874392}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1716418874399}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-polit... | ["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics", "the-life-of-biden", "donald-trump"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720049185548 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ecB9W2PJhpvddwFYnTRm | after-the-final-stage-8-of-the-2024-d442e69cdd14 | 16161.960250463273 | After (the final) Stage 8 of the 2024 Critérium du Dauphiné, who will wear the Maillot Jaune? | 1717941540000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 9.75306228916449 | True | basic | 4b96186040ad | public | 1716421558142 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will be resolved with verified results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.criterium-du-dauphine.fr/en", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.criterium-du-dauphine.fr/en", "class"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 112.28972462634144, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717941735149 | 2250 | ovals | 1717953711171 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "6e041ab0e0ec", "prob": 0.0010808233736654227, "text": "Jonas Vingegaard", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.170952039487645, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8475.982369900592, "textFts": "'jona':1 'vingegaard':2", "contractId": "ecB9W2PJhpvddwFYnTRm", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1716421558475}, {"name": "🚲 Cycling", "slug": "road-bicycle-racing", "groupId": "2yisxJryUq9V5sG7P6Gy", "createdTime": 1716421558479}, {"name": "Critérium du Dauphiné", "slug": "criterium-du-dauphine", "groupId": "13f9... | ["sports-default", "road-bicycle-racing", "criterium-du-dauphine", "racing-sports", "maillot-jaune"] | 0.25 | 1717939427746 | 1717953709978 | {"4b96186040ad": 100} | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | a8t1tr92y0TbtcEseJ99 | {"NO": 351.56152465532796, "YES": 2844.4523358476217} | 0 | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-4c7ebc4b62e0 | 6216.386442388204 | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on May 23 than it closed on May 22? | 1716494522596 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.747935866636107 | True | basic | NO | public | 1716421665843 | Jim Fix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 124.02034393870375, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716494522596 | 1000 | JimFix | 1716494522596 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696775041650 | 0 | [{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1716421666118}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1716421666114}, {"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1... | ["economics-default", "stocks", "finance"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716494453722 | 0.11 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ymzJZSLptwHuKRGFAX3x | after-the-final-stage-8-of-the-2024-a422720ce099 | 6509.060571392038 | After (the final) Stage 8 of the 2024 Tour de Suisse, who will wear the Maillot Jaune? | 1718546340000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | 40br66riox | public | 1716423190519 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will be resolved with verified results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.tourdesuisse.ch/en", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.tourdesuisse.ch/en", "class": "break-anywhere ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 63.5564320171609, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718558183789 | 1800 | ovals | 1718558375101 | 0 | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "16b4566385f4", "prob": 0.00913038655408029, "text": "Jonas Vingegaard", "index": 0, "poolNo": 40.00887918227693, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4341.939129842303, "textFts": "'jona':1 'vingegaard':2", "contractId": "ymzJZSLptwHuKRGFAX3x", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | [{"name": "Maillot Jaune", "slug": "maillot-jaune", "groupId": "d35ec746-d3e1-4d79-b4b2-77470ae096c3", "createdTime": 1716423190864}, {"name": "Racing Sports", "slug": "racing-sports", "groupId": "33e8134f-1e61-48a4-9f53-dcd961021076", "createdTime": 1716423190861}, {"name": "Tour de Suisse", "slug": "tour-de-suisse", ... | ["maillot-jaune", "racing-sports", "tour-de-suisse", "sports-default", "road-bicycle-racing"] | 0.25 | 1718538312550 | 1718558373689 | {"40br66riox": 100} | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
xSEAcMdTDENcIORv90PS | trump-vp-odds-who-will-be-in-1st-pl | 12774.785913208998 | Trump VP Odds: Who will be in 1st place on PredictIt on June 8th? | 1717829940000 | vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | cdd47371c1e6 | public | 1716424045054 | Manifold Politics | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution Source:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8069/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-vice-presidential-nomination", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decorati... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 146.22265499060052, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717976665725 | 1500 | ManifoldPolitics | 1717829940000 | 0 | 24 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "cdd47371c1e6", "prob": 0.9361840989636742, "text": "Tim Scott (SC Senator)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1284.6725326200985, "userId": "vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 87.57095457669321, "textFts": "'sc':3 'scott':2 'senat':4 'tim':1", "contractId": "xSEAcMdTDENcIORv90PS", "resolverId": "... | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1701801625125 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1716424045399}, {"name": "🥈Trump VP", "slug": "trump-vp", "groupId": "91cb9237-771a-4e21-8eb2-d05f3f6d9e5b", "createdTime": 1716424045400}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential... | ["us-politics", "trump-vp", "2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "donald-trump"] | 0.25 | 1717813371679 | 1717976620873 | {"cdd47371c1e6": 100} | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | True | prob-desc | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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ILgA1u3mKflc8nW11BCB | which-team-will-be-the-next-1-bunde | 50 | Which team will be the next 1. Bundesliga newcomer (after Holstein Kiel)? | 2524690740000 | vcRnogNTojb2z8RejfxaYDwYs6B3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1716472341626 | A. Dings | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Holstein Kiel just made it to 1. Bundesliga for the first time, becoming the 58th team overall to do so. Which team will be next to reach that league for the first time in their history? (This includes teams that played at the top level of East Ger... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.562616082647919, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2750 | ADings | 1716495782554 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKyQmiXuUz7vNTKFEGxzvoGhgYnrN03vcCFlsSwpc7SDg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "522b4c809e46", "prob": 0.14473569564154176, "text": "1. FC Magdeburg", "index": 0, "poolNo": 178.87117147413244, "userId": "vcRnogNTojb2z8RejfxaYDwYs6B3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1056.9758024273988, "textFts": "'1':1 'fc':2 'magdeburg':3", "contractId": "ILgA1u3mKflc8nW11BCB", "createdTime": 1716472341627... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709564544314 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1716472342042}, {"name": "Bundesliga", "slug": "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "groupId": "7c53ccd3-1a40-41ca-bd88-dedac17a91a9", "createdTime": 1716472342046}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN... | ["sports-default", "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "soccer", "germany"] | 0.25 | 1716495778661 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | 0RH5GmobQZXu65lUteZk | {"NO": 290.6224643099061, "YES": 3440.8902366667985} | 0.07788328423318443 | will-germany-recognize-the-state-of | 16072.200328638017 | Will Germany recognize the State of Palestine by the end of 2024? | 1735649940000 | nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.418348846562326 | False | basic | public | 1716472405983 | Gaz Downright | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\t1.\tDefinition: Official recognition involves the German government's formal declaration or diplomatic note acknowledging Palestine as a sov... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.0021167157668155467, "month": -0.01614560477554941} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 148.5859115173393, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | GazDownright | 1719652630946 | 0 | 76 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697568039966 | 0 | [{"name": "🇵🇸 Palestine", "slug": "palestine", "groupId": "1de63cc6-7700-472a-a943-e67cb4d3e07d", "createdTime": 1716472406250}, {"name": "Germany", "slug": "germany", "groupId": "0egO7eYCaC5HnLwGN8tR", "createdTime": 1716472406248}, {"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "create... | ["palestine", "germany", "israel", "geopolitics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719652627595 | 1716909978593 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4895348809814976 | L1zlAqSEVLrJ41sscyS2 | {"NO": 1486.4138169546493, "YES": 8466.12947087166} | 0.1441089300830215 | will-kelsey-piper-receive-a-pulitze | 10651.065445751336 | Will Kelsey Piper receive a Pulitzer Prize related to her coverage on any AI company/lab within the next 10 years? | 2051251140000 | U907XL5wZSQ0pD7pMXe2HaS0NR33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.646300626006713 | False | basic | public | 1716489523205 | Haven | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "More info on Kelsey Piper: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.vox.com/authors/kelsey-piper", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.vox.com/authors/kelsey-piper", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline ho... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.0047826669307557135, "month": 0.007098569728602927} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 146.5929013425975, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 3500 | HWH | 1719898651773 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706651628330 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1716489523493}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1716489523527}, {"name": "Journalism", "slug": "journalism", "groupId": "3575511c-4aae-4425-b7c3-704f564a7254", "c... | ["ai", "technology-default", "journalism"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719898648665 | 1716587056406 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | RiA40BtmZtWeqlKzWSoj | {"NO": 1083.0813964217705, "YES": 923.2916411488089} | 0 | will-i-submit-an-accepted-paper-to | 88 | Will I submit an accepted paper to ICML’s Workshop on Mechanistic Interpretability? | 1719466244381 | GLzpZPkoRWcZv7I1sbSGv9mPZlB3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.571322452583694 | True | basic | NO | public | 1716494883077 | capy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Draft almost finished for a 4 page paper. Due 29th May. Why it might fail: the idea is a bit left field and also quite basic. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5313539333954967} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.862403077340152, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719466244381 | 1000 | capybara | 1719466335400 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKevinDoran%2F6rlhLww5NS.35?alt=media&token=c2bbf567-0a54-4425-9ebd-1cec295a7660 | 5 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690578434746 | 0 | [{"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1716494883353}] | ["personal-goals"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719444363303 | 1719466334273 | 0.54 | GLzpZPkoRWcZv7I1sbSGv9mPZlB3 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
G9djjQlx7Ror0xJ8clWc | how-many-total-comments-will-there | 8978.526890258625 | How many total comments will there be on the Dungeon Meshi kink meme by the end of June? | 1718521140000 | p69vM8ilsWbBGe1BzhNGECLCbih2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1716497367350 | etirabys | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dungeon Meshi is a fast growing fandom – it's a well regarded manga that recently also became a Netflix anime that is still airing. The count of fanfics on the fanfic archive AO3 grew from 335 three months ago to 1411 today.", "type": "text"}]}, {"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 111.37083243804635, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2750 | etirabys | 1719935008467 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdp4p7_Xvptf2I7YogZttWjv5q9MHYU76Qkau6wVnNzFg=s96-c | 4 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "d32fdc6f3bc6", "prob": 0.2740599644012669, "text": "<100", "index": 0, "poolNo": 153.60750424233225, "userId": "p69vM8ilsWbBGe1BzhNGECLCbih2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 406.88116318457696, "textFts": "'100':1", "contractId": "G9djjQlx7Ror0xJ8clWc", "createdTime": 1716497367351, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "we... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692136527634 | 0 | [{"name": "Fandoms", "slug": "fandoms", "groupId": "f9333477-7089-45d4-8d60-52269c9971d5", "createdTime": 1716497367734}] | ["fandoms"] | 0.25 | 1718241545315 | 1719935006848 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 8zhjhTJ2msVNbTrligdr | {"NO": 9863.46317689088, "YES": 101.38426859471696} | 1 | how-will-the-polymarket-about-an-et | 9496.907177508405 | How will the controversial Polymarket about an Ethereum ETF by May 31 resolve? | 1716515825455 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.850201723309855 | True | basic | YES | public | 1716497472078 | Joshua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will exactly mirror the resolution of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this polymarket, ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://polymarket.com/event/ethereum-etf-approved-by-may-31?tid=1716495585850", "clas... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 100.57135906523857, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716515825455 | 1000 | Joshua | 1716515825455 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1645516283433 | 0 | [{"name": "Ethereum", "slug": "ethereum", "groupId": "IYG60kkC6dQPZ9078ePu", "createdTime": 1716497511163}, {"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1716497512023}, {"name": "Polymarket", "slug": "polymarket", "groupId": "yeQpbHOQhxPyQifhmJrY", "createdTime":... | ["ethereum", "crypto-speculation", "polymarket"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716515556121 | 1716515550738 | 0.99 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
YqGpt8xI52LgkFbrmt5M | lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-89 | 1000 | [Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 89) | 1716674340000 | v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1716497644737 | komplexkonjugat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let's play Civ6!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Anyone can add instructions. Instructions can be composite, but are executed atomically (either fully or not at all). Upon mark... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.62112055549613, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716762369513 | 1250 | komplexkonjugat | 1716764011932 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "57bc7e236512", "prob": 0.92, "text": "Execute all instructions in @MattCWilson's comment on this answer.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1238.378879444504, "userId": "rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50.469206991026226, "textFts": "'answer':10 'comment':7 'execut':1 'instruct':3 'mattcwilson... | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698548141721 | 0 | [{"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1716497645057}, {"name": "ManifoldPlaysCiv6", "slug": "manifoldplaysciv6", "groupId": "5fb3f729-faaa-425d-9c1b-c04c78abe1b4", "createdTime": 1716497645071}] | ["gaming", "manifoldplaysciv6"] | 0.25 | 1716560043352 | 1716764010714 | 0.92 | v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
m8RV7Opfl6f5dCfrbJzV | who-will-still-be-working-at-openai | 3683.481555730206 | Who will still be working at OpenAI in January 2025? | 1735689540000 | 8xQnIB88joaJhPlVukko1KWmAhA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1716499678811 | Jaeson Booker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve for each answer to 'NO' if there is a credible source declaring they're leaving the company (news article, personal tweet, OpenAI statement, etc.) and 'YES' if there is no credible evidence they have left the company before Decemb... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 72.83755273971771, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1500 | JaesonBooker | 1718551128020 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7Rs0_O0TIrqz7XA7vEBK-PqCatVcTZJI0ImEYs=s96-c | 43 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "9b9cfcbce110", "prob": 0.9041100167276652, "text": "Sam Altman", "index": 0, "poolNo": 767.6513670718051, "userId": "8xQnIB88joaJhPlVukko1KWmAhA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 81.41716758533936, "textFts": "'altman':2 'sam':1", "contractId": "m8RV7Opfl6f5dCfrbJzV", "createdTime": 1716499678811, "probChanges":... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1676508997945 | 0 | [{"name": "OpenAI Crisis", "slug": "openai-crisis", "groupId": "f81ebc23-0deb-4e38-b703-66ad59521727", "createdTime": 1716499679175}, {"name": "OpenAI", "slug": "openai-84034a690a0e", "groupId": "4e2494d6-fbf2-43f2-99d6-57a48892716b", "createdTime": 1716499679187}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3... | ["openai-crisis", "openai-84034a690a0e", "openai", "ai"] | 0.25 | 1718551124939 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000013 | 9peeskCb67GhEvPD0oct | {"NO": 9926.77329559464, "YES": 100.73766874919875} | 1 | will-and-sp-500-stock-index-close-h | 9283.169092501199 | Will and S&P 500 Stock Index close higher on May 24th than it closed on May 23rd? | 1716581015839 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849849274135412 | True | basic | YES | public | 1716502003594 | Jim Fix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 55.36026466211904, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716581015839 | 1000 | JimFix | 1716581015839 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696775041650 | 0 | [{"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1716502004335}, {"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1716502004337}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1... | ["stocks", "finance", "economics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716580705700 | 0.99 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | 0 |
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